[Congressional Record (Bound Edition), Volume 149 (2003), Part 6]
[Senate]
[Pages 7459-7460]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office, www.gpo.gov]




                               THE BUDGET

  Mr. CONRAD. Mr. President, I thank the Chair for this opportunity 
this morning to bring to my colleagues' attention where we stand with 
respect to the budget resolution that we will be completing today.
  A very important report came out late yesterday from the 
Congressional Budget Office, which is nonpartisan, which is in charge 
of estimating the effects of what we do here. I might add, while the 
CBO is nonpartisan, because the Republicans control the House and the 
Senate, they were able to choose the new CBO Director. One of the tests 
they had was the use of so-called dynamic scoring. The gentleman who 
now heads CBO is committed to dynamic scoring, and he has now released 
an analysis of the budget before us based on dynamic scoring. His 
conclusion is exactly what I have been reporting to my colleagues day 
after day on the floor: Tax cuts will make the deficit soar.
  I hope we can put this old canard to rest once and for all that 
somehow you can tax cut your way to prosperity when at the same time 
you are increasing spending. When you start from a base of record 
budget deficits, there can only be one result. When you start with 
record budget deficits and then cut your revenue stream, as the 
President has proposed, by nearly $2 trillion and increase spending, 
the deficits and the debt are going to get bigger. The Congressional 
Budget Office is telling us that is exactly what we face.
  There was another article in the Washington Post on this same story. 
They point out:

       The CBO report also said the president's tax and spending 
     proposals ``imply a deficit in every year over the next 
     decade,'' thus adding to the national debt and to the annual 
     interest payments on that debt beyond 2013.
       ``For some time, that added need could be met by running 
     higher deficits. However, the federal government could not 
     follow such an approach indefinitely. At some point in the 
     future under the president's proposals, either taxes would 
     have to be higher than they otherwise would have been, or 
     spending would have to be lower,'' the report said.

  It is time we sober up around here. I do not know what happened to 
our friends on the other side who used to be fiscal conservatives, who 
used to believe in balanced budgets and now endorse tax cuts that are 
going to plunge us into deep deficit and debt.
  This is the analysis again from the Congressional Budget Office of 
what the plan before us will do. This is the President's budget plan: a 
deficit next year of $512 billion. That does not count the war costs. 
Add in the $75 billion the President wants for the war, and the deficit 
next year will be $587 billion. Does anybody have sticker shock around 
here yet? That is getting close to being twice as big as the previous 
record deficit.
  The analysis shows we will not be out of deficit any year for the 
next 10 years. But that is not the most sobering effect. None of the 
deficits will be less than $400 billion.
  Mr. SARBANES. Mr. President, will the Senator yield for one quick 
question?
  Mr. CONRAD. I will.
  Mr. SARBANES. I want to be very clear. The Senator is saying the 
budget deficit for the next year will be close to $600 billion, more 
than double the highest deficit we have ever run previously; is that 
correct?
  Mr. CONRAD. That is exactly what we are being told by the 
Congressional Budget Office. We now face, if we adopt the President's 
plans for massive tax cuts on top of the spending increases for defense 
and homeland security, which we all endorse--we endorse the increased 
funds for defense and homeland security--that we are going to

[[Page 7460]]

have budget deficits as far as the eye can see, and they are not going 
to be small deficits. They are going to be massive deficits.
  This chart shows that, in fact, we are in the sweet spot now. This is 
not my chart. This comes from the President's own document. It shows in 
the period we are in now that the deficits, although they are record 
levels, are going to get much bigger. As we approach the retirement of 
the baby boom generation and as we approach the full phasing in of the 
President's proposed tax cuts, at the very time the cost of the Federal 
Government explodes, the retirement of the baby boom generation, the 
cost of the President's tax cuts explode, sending us right off the 
cliff into deficits and debt that are totally unsustainable.
  The other day one of our colleagues on the other side said Democrats 
were proposing spending that he suggested was just out of control. This 
chart shows the Democratic alternative we offered. This is a comparison 
of spending with the Republican plan, which is the green line, 18.8 
percent of GDP; the blue line is our spending, 19.3 percent. One of the 
big reasons there is a difference is because we put the money in to pay 
for the war. We put the money in to pay for increased homeland 
security. So certainly we have more spending. We have more spending 
because we have responded to the President's call to put the spending 
in for the war. Our friends on the other side did not.
  Let me go to the next chart quickly. He also showed what he called 
the Democrat spend-o-meter. We can look at the Republican debt-o-meter 
because what they are doing is running up the debt.
  When the President took office, he told us that by 2008, there would 
only be $36 billion of debt left. In his 2002 budget, he said--
  Mr. SARBANES. Will the Senator yield on that point?
  Mr. CONRAD. Let me complete this thought first, and then I will be 
happy to yield.
  He had the debt run up to $1.2 trillion after adopting his plans; in 
August of 2001, $1.6 trillion. In February of 2002, with the 
President's 2003 budget, the debt is up to $3.2 trillion. And if we 
adopt his budget for 2004, the debt by 2008 will be $5 trillion.
  I conclude by saying when we proposed additional spending to fund the 
war, to fund homeland security, and to improve education, we did it in 
a controlled way, every bit of it paid for, but we added deficit 
reduction so that we would have less deficit, less debt, a stronger 
economy, and more opportunity for the American people.
  When I see in the newspapers the President in his plan is down to 
$350 billion of tax cuts, oh, no, they are only looking at half the 
proposal. Right now the budget resolution that is before us has $852 
billion in tax cuts, not the $350 billion that has been widely 
reported. When they are talking about the $350 billion, they are 
talking about the reconciled tax cuts, those that will be given special 
consideration which cannot be filibustered. So the total tax cuts in 
this plan are $852 billion.
  I am happy to yield to the Senator from Maryland for a question.
  Mr. SARBANES. I ask the ranking member of the Budget Committee, with 
these record deficits and this incredible buildup of debt which would 
flow out of the administration's policy, who is going to carry the 
burden of that debt? Will not the same men and women who are now 
fighting out in the Middle East, when they come home, have that debt 
settle upon them? And in the meantime, very big tax cuts are being 
given to very wealthy people. What sacrifice are the people who have 
been most favored in our society economically making in order to meet 
this economic crisis? There is no sacrifice on their part.
  The ACTING PRESIDENT pro tempore. The Senator's time has expired.
  The Senator from New Mexico.

                          ____________________