[Congressional Record (Bound Edition), Volume 147 (2001), Part 7]
[Extensions of Remarks]
[Page 9940]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office, www.gpo.gov]



           THE COMING ENERGY WARS; COMMENTARY BY BUD SHUSTER

                                 ______
                                 

                           HON. DON SHERWOOD

                            of pennsylvania

                    in the house of representatives

                         Tuesday, June 5, 2001

  Mr. SHERWOOD. Mr. Speaker, our highly respected colleague, Bud 
Shuster, who served as both Chairman of the Transportation and 
Infrastructure Committee and a Ranking Member of the Intelligence 
Committee, has written a very well researched and thought-provoking 
piece titled ``The Coming Energy Wars,'' which appeared recently in 
several publications including the May 31 issue of the Chambersburg 
Gazzette. I commend it to my colleagues.

       From the sluicing of water to the splitting of the atom, 
     civilization has turned natural sources of energy into power 
     to do the world's work. Throughout history prosperity has 
     been inextricably linked to society's access to sources of 
     raw energy and the technological capacity to convert and 
     distribute it in usable forms. The American economy has been 
     built upon an energy base especially on a cheap and abundant 
     supply of oil. But that is about to change.
       Some say the California energy crisis is a wake-up call: 
     Others say it isn't even a crisis. But as a philosopher once 
     observed: ``Facts are stubborn things. Wishing won't make 
     them go away.'' The facts are that California's energy demand 
     has increased in the past decade by more than twice the 
     national average; it produces less energy per capita than any 
     other state: has not built a new power plant in a dozen 
     years; and has banned coal-generating plants, creating upward 
     pressure on the price of natural gas. While deregulating 
     wholesale prices of electricity, but keeping a cap on retail 
     prices, it has plunged its power companies into insolvency. 
     Brownouts aren't being imagined and blackouts are no longer 
     unimaginable.
       But instead of being a wake-up call to produce more energy, 
     California's experience just might be a harbinger of things 
     to come. The U.S. population is projected to increase from 
     283 to 325 million by 2020, according to the U.S. Census 
     Bureau.
       During the same period, U.S. petroleum consumption is 
     slated to increase by 33 percent, domestic oil production to 
     decline by 16 percent, and imports to increase by 33 percent, 
     according to the Energy Department. All forms of energy 
     consumption, converted into BTU's increase from 84 
     quadrillion in 1990 to 98 quads last year, and is projected 
     to top 121 quads by 2020, up 44 percent in 30 years.
       During the same period, world population is slated to 
     exceed 7.5 billion by 2020, a 41 percent increase in 30 
     years, with most of the growth occurring in the developing 
     countries. The industrialized world's demand for energy will 
     increase by 23 percent, but total global demand will soar by 
     more than 50 percent, according to the Center for Strategic 
     and International Studies. Nevertheless, poor countries will 
     remain poor, while developed nations will grow richer, 
     further widening the gap.
       Most forecasters see no significant breakthroughs for new 
     energy sources. The Persian Gulf will remain the largest 
     supplier of oil, but would have to increase production by 80 
     percent to meet world demand, a highly unlikely, if not 
     impossible scenario. The U.S. transportation sector will 
     continue to be ``almost entirely dependent on petroleum as an 
     energy source'' according to the U.S. Department of 
     Transportation. U.S. production of nuclear and hydroelectric 
     power also will decline due to government mandates. Coal, 
     which is the nation's most abundant source of energy, but 
     which produces only about 20 percent of the country's supply, 
     is in danger of being further curtailed by environmental 
     regulations; however well intended. Heavy demand for the 
     expanded supplies of natural gas will further drive up 
     prices, which already have doubled in the past decade. 
     Although conservation can play a role it will not come close 
     to curing the problem, short of inflicting painful lifestyle 
     changes on the American people, or saddling the country with 
     energy induced Depression.
       During this period, over three billion people in third-
     world countries will face serious water shortages, increasing 
     the potential for famine according to the National Foreign 
     Intelligence Board: ``Regions, countries and groups feeling 
     left behind will face deepening economic stagnation, 
     political instability and cultural alienation.''
       It was no accident that Rarnzi Yousef chose the World Trade 
     Center as his bombing target. While he succeeded in killing 
     six and injuring over a thousand, his objective was to bring 
     down the entire structure, killing tens of thousands. 
     Terrorist cells from the Middle East to Afghanistan, funded 
     by Osama Bin Laden and others have declared a Jihad, a holy 
     war, on behalf of Islam against the West, and especially the 
     United States and Israel. These threats are not going away. 
     Terrorists are funded and supported by Iran, Iraq, Lybia, 
     Syria, Sudan, Afghanistan and Cuba. James Woolsey, former 
     Director of the CIA stated: ``Today's terrorist don't want a 
     seat at the table. They want to destroy the table and 
     everyone sitting at it.''
       It's time to face uncomfortable facts. Pour the world's 
     increasing population and demand for energy into a pot 
     boiling with poverty, stir with resentment and add fanaticism 
     and easy access to weapons of mass destruction. Where will it 
     lead? Japan's thirst for oil led to Pearl Harbor. Saddam's 
     desire to dominate the oil-rich Persian Gulf sparked the call 
     for half a million American troops to drive him back to 
     Baghdad.
       Given a set of stubborn facts that can't be wished away, 
     future energy wars no longer may be a dim possibility, but 
     rather, highly probable--and sooner than we think.

     

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