[Congressional Record (Bound Edition), Volume 146 (2000), Part 5]
[Extensions of Remarks]
[Pages 6988-6989]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office, www.gpo.gov]



                      THE DANGERS IN THE CAUCASUS

                                 ______
                                 

                           HON. BILL McCOLLUM

                               of florida

                    in the house of representatives

                         Thursday, May 4, 2000

  Mr. McCOLLUM. Mr. Speaker, rarely has the situation in a 
strategically crucial area been so tenuous and fraught with dangers as 
the situation in the Caucasus presently is. These dynamics are of 
immense importance for the United States because the Caucasus is the 
gateway to ``the Persian Gulf of the 21st Century''--the energy 
resources of the Caspian Sea Basin and Central Asia. As well, the 
Caucasus constitutes the natural barrier between Asia Minor and 
Russia--an area increasingly contested by a close ally, Turkey, and a 
global power, Russia. Both Turkey and Russia are reclaiming traditional 
spheres of influence and, in the process, reviving their historic 
conflict.
  At the core of the brewing crisis in the Caucasus are two 
increasingly conflicting dynamics that are on a collision course. On 
the one hand, there is an intensified effort, spearheaded by the 
Clinton Administration, to find a negotiated political solution to the 
Nagorno-Karabakh issue in order to clear the way to an oil pipeline 
across the Caucasus. While no negotiated solution is in sight, the U.S. 
involvement has already created expectations for panaceas and economic 
boom among all local powers. Now that these expectations are not 
materializing, there is a rebounding spread of radicalism and 
militancy--from Armenia (where political violence is on the increase) 
to Azerbaijan and Georgia, where military activities reinforce the 
hardening of political positions. On the other hand, there looms an 
escalation in and beyond Chechnya. Spearheaded by Islamist forces, 
including terrorists from several Middle Eastern countries, Pakistan 
and Afghanistan, the new cycle of fighting is expected to spread into 
the entire region for geo-strategic reasons. The surge of Islamist 
terrorism is likely to serve as a catalyst for the eruption of the 
tension and acrimony building throughout the entire Caucasus.
  Having just returned from a trip to Russia, including Chechnya, 
German BND Chief August Hanning reported to the Bundestag that the 
situation in the Caucasus has ``escalated dangerously''. Once the 
weather improves in the early Summer, the fighting in Chechnya will not 
only escalate, but also spread to the fringes of the Russian Federation 
and to the rest of the Caucasus. Hanning is most alarmed by these 
prospects because the Islamist forces in Chechnya are supported and 
guided by ``the Afghan Taliban and globally operating terrorist bin 
Laden as well as by groups of Islamist mercenaries.'' Through these 
channels, Hanning found out, the Chechen forces have been provided with 
large quantities of modern weapons including ``Stinger-type'' anti-
aircraft missiles. Hanning warned the Bundestag of the dire strategic 
and economic ramifications for the West if the Chechnya war spread to 
Georgia, Dagestan, Ingushetia, and the rest of the Caucasus.
  Russian experts also warn that the Mujahedin and other Islamist 
forces in Chechnya are preparing for a major escalation and expansion 
in the fighting. Oleg Odnokolenko of the Moscow newspaper Segodnya is 
right in calling the forthcoming escalation ``the start of a 
fundamentally new war--a fullscale third Chechen war.'' As was the case 
with the previous Chechen wars, the
  However, the declared major objective of the Chechen Islamists is the 
incitement of a regional flare-up. Ali Ulukhayev, Chechnya's ambassador 
to Baku, recently stressed the regional context of the unfolding was 
against Russia. Ulukhayev stated that ``Chechens will not be satisfied 
with the liberation of their own territory.'' Only a regional solution 
is a viable solution for the Chechen Islamist leadership. Ulukhayev 
explained that ``the freedom of Chechens is impossible until all the 
Caucasian people are liberated. We will drive the occupation army up to 
the Don. We should liberate the territory from the Don to the Volga, 
from sea to sea [from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea] and up to Iran 
and Turkey from Russia and set up a confederative Caucasian state. If 
we are liberated from the empire, the Abakhazian, Ossetian and 
Nagornyy-Nagornyy-Karabakh conflicts will be resolved by themselves 
peacefully.'' Ulukhayev highlighted the urgent imperative to resolve 
the latter conflict because ``Nagornyy-Karabakh always was an 
inalienable part of Azerbaijan.'' According to Ulukhayev, the Chechen 
Islamist leadership and its allies have already earned the right to 
determine the fate of all other nations and peoples in the Caucasus. 
``Today, Chechens carry the burden of the Caucaus Russian war on their 
shoulders,'' he noted. However, the war must be expanded to other 
fronts as well in order to be able to defeat Russia. ``If the Caucasian 
peoples divide this burden equally, then it will be easy to deal with 
Moscow. The matter is that if, God forbid, Chechens are defeated, 
Georgia and Azerbaijan will be the Kremlin's next target,'' Ulukhayev 
explained. ``The Caucasian peoples have no possibility of resolving 
their problems independently,'' and therefore must unite behind the 
Chechen Islamist leaders in order to take on Russia.
  Among these crisis points, Nagorno-Karabakh is uniquely volatile 
because of internal pressures in Baku. The growing militancy in 
Azerbaijan not only closely fit Ulukhayev's message and logic, but is 
also driven by indigenous strategic and economic interests. To be 
economically viable, the anticipated oil and gas pipelines will have to 
cross areas currently held by he Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians. Since late 
March, there have been strong indications that Baku is contemplating 
the resumption of hostilities against both Armenia and Nagorno-
Karabakh. For example, the military elite of Azerbaijan (both on active 
service and recenlty retired) led by General Zaur Rzayev, and former 
Defense Minister Tacaddin Mehdiyev just met and briefed President 
Haidar Aliyev about the urgent imperative to resolve Nagorno-Karabakh 
issue by force. The delegation argued that everyday that passes 
increases the world's acceptance of the ``Nagorno-Karabakh entity'', 
thus reducing the likelihood that Azerbaijan will be able to recover 
this important region. The delegation stated that ``the military are 
confident that it is possible to resolve the conflict and liberate the 
land only in a military way.'' Indeed, since late March, there has been 
a worrisome escalation in the military clashes along the Azeri-Karabakh 
cease-fire line. These clashes should be considered probing of the 
Armenian defense lines and readiness by the Azerbaijani Armed Forces.
  This threat is most dangerous because interested third parties can 
flare-up the southern Caucasus on their own. Given the growing tension, 
militancy and hostility, and localized eruption is bound to escalate 
into a wider conflagration. For example, an anti-Armenian clash 
instigated by any one of the numerous Chechen and foreign Mujahedin 
detachments currently in Azerbaijan can serve as a spark for this 
regional eruption. The Azerbaijani forces will be drawn into the 
conflagration once the Karabakhi forces attempt retaliation or active 
defense. The Armed Forces of Armenia and the Russian forces deployed in 
Armenia, will intervene to prevent the collapse of Nagorno-Karabakh. 
Ultimately, and herein the danger lies, such a war will serve the 
interests of the Chechen leadership because this war will divert 
Russian resources from Chechnya and Georgia, where the local Russian 
forces attempt to block the Chechens' supply lines, to saving the 
Armenians. Consequently, the Chechen forces will be able to resume 
their offensive operations against smaller and weaker Russian forces.
  Many experts share the apprehension about the Chechen war spreading 
to the Armenia-Azerbaijan region. In her recent ``Open Letter to the 
Armenian People,'' Baroness Cox, the Deputy Speaker of the House of 
Lords, elucidated the mounting threat to Armenia. ``A decade after 
regaining its independence, Armenia

[[Page 6989]]

might be in such great danger that its independence and very existence 
may be threatened. The hope created by negotiations with Azerbaijan 
currently being pursued by the Armenian government is deceptive. The 
Islamist forces in the Caucasus are determined decisively to `resolve' 
the `problems' of Armenia and Karabakh by force. Nobody, least of all 
Azerbaijan and Turkey, will stand in their way.'' Baroness Cox rightly 
stressed that the situation in the Caucasus is far from having been 
already decided. ``My aim is not to sow despair,'' she wrote. ``On the 
contrary, I firmly believe that an independent Armenia and Artsakh are 
destined to flourish and to emerge as bulwarks of stability and 
prosperity in the Caucasus. However, this destiny will not be achieved, 
and the worst will happen, if the current political dynamics are 
allowed to continue.'' I share both the apprehension and hope expressed 
by Baroness Cox.
  Indeed, the main challenge facing us is to prevent this scenario from 
materializing. Widespread hostilities have not yet begun. However, with 
intentions and preferences clearly declared, all sides are now 
posturing--trying to read the situation in order to make their fateful 
decisions about escalating and expanding the fighting. Therefore, it is 
high time to take preventive steps in order to contain and stifle the 
brewing crisis. The American policy toward Nagorno-Karabakh, because of 
the important Armenian community in the US, is looked upon by all the 
regional powers as a test case and a measure of the West's resolve to 
save what is both a cradle of Judeo-Christian civilization and a 
contemporary strategic asset in a crucial though most volatile region.
  Ultimately, the fate of the Caucasus will be determined by the 
resistance, defiance, resolve and bravery of the local people. The 
proud ancient peoples who have retained their heritage and religion 
through centuries of Islamic onslaught and pressure will not surrender 
now. The Armenians' defense of their homes and heritage against 
overwhelming odds--as they have done for centuries--is indeed a 
cornerstone of the retention of Western presence and interests in the 
Caucasus. However, the Armenians may succumb to an Islamist onslaught. 
Such a development will be detrimental to the US national interest in 
the Caucasus.
  Therefore, the United States should live up to the challenge and make 
a concentrated effort to prevent the war in Chechnya from spreading and 
escalating to the point of endangering the regional stability, let 
alone the very existence of the Armenians. Our own vital interests are 
served by these undertakings. Hence, striving to retain access to the 
energy resources of the Caspian Sea Basin and Central Asia--the Persian 
Gulf of the 21st Century--the United States must both buttress the 
Armenians' ability to withstand the building pressure, prevail in the 
trials ahead, and ultimately project stability into this strategically 
and economically crucial region; as well as support the Russian 
endeavor to contain the Islamist upsurge in the Caucasus before 
terrorism gets out of control.

                          ____________________