[Congressional Record Volume 172, Number 82 (Thursday, May 14, 2026)]
[House]
[Pages H3521-H3524]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
OUR ECONOMIC FUTURE
(Under the Speaker's announced policy of January 3, 2025, Mr.
Schweikert of Arizona was recognized for 30 minutes.)
Mr. SCHWEIKERT. Madam Speaker, I am actually going to try something
that we have done over and over.
I apologize; I have had a lot of coffee. If I start talking like a
machine gun, just start waving at me.
I am going to try one more time to communicate to the thousands of
televisions we are on around the campus. Hopefully, there are still
staff, interns, and others who actually care about our economic future.
Maybe there are a few Members. Maybe there are actually some really
smart people out on C-SPAN, because I am often remarkably impressed
when these floor speeches go up on YouTube or other things at some of
the comments. I am also heartbroken about the thousands of Russian bots
and other things that may crop up.
Let's do some basic reality, and I am going to walk through some of
these numbers.
As of today, for the last 12 months, so more than just within the
fiscal year, the last 12 months--so I pick up the tax cycle, and I pick
up everything else--we are borrowing about $87,000 a second, every
second of every day.
Yet, I will go home and give a speech. I am leaving this place. I am
running for Governor in Arizona. I will speak in front of people, watch
their faces when I try to explain, here is what the math is, here is
what is going on.
My 3-year-old son that we have adopted--a miracle, absolute miracle--
this government needs 104 percent of his lifetime earnings just to pay
Federal pensions, not the military, not the rest of the government;
just to cover Social Security, Medicare, military retirement, just the
pension benefits.
{time} 1920
Madam Speaker, we need his entire lifetime earnings plus another 4
percent. Is that moral?
Didn't we have one of our Founding Fathers say a generation should be
responsible for its own debts? Yet, we will have borrowed about $7.5
billion, $7.7 billion today. Let's actually walk through some of the
things that are actual math, a couple of the solutions.
My tense frustration around here--and I accept a whole bunch of our
Members are lawyers. Bless their precious hearts. Could they buy a
calculator? Because it is beyond Republican versus Democrat. I think we
have much better fiscal economic growth ideas, but it is demographics.
In 1 year from now, we will have fewer people under 18 years of age
than we had 20 years ago but double our brothers and sisters who are 65
and up. In 29 months, 29 months, over half the Federal spending will go
to those 65 and up. Are we allowed to tell that truth?
This is the report from the Treasury that was put out about 3 weeks
ago. I know we all as Members of Congress grabbed it and read some of
the projections in here, but some of the math in here made it very,
very, very clear, except you had to work the graphs and play with the
calculations and numbers because sometimes it is really uncomfortable
telling these things when you actually had numbers, 30 years from now
the United States having about 250 percent debt to GDP.
When you actually took a look, if you do State and local debt right
now, we are over 126 percent debt to GDP. When you actually start to
look at other reports of the solvency issues in regard to Social
Security, Medicare, is it moral that in about 6 years and 3 months the
Social Security Trust Fund is empty? In 6 years and 3 months, if we
follow the law as it is written today and don't fix things, those on
Social Security will get a 24 percent cut.
The math says in the following year we will double the poverty of
seniors. We will basically double. We will double the number of baby
boomers that live on the street.
Madam Speaker, in a little over 6 years, the Medicare Trust Fund is
empty and hospitals in your district and my district take a 12 percent
cut. How many of them will remain open? It is the math.
How many times, for anyone who is crazy enough to watch us, who has
actually watched the people coming behind these microphones, have
actually heard Members of Congress get up and say the greatest systemic
threat to our society, to our culture, to this Nation is our debt and
demographics? Why aren't we willing to have a conversation about it?
Why aren't we willing to tell the truth?
Yet, a couple of weeks ago we had a balanced budget bill, and,
actually, I think it failed, but it is part of the scam we engage in.
We all go out and vote for it and say, ``I voted for a balanced
budget,'' but I am never going to tell you how we are going to get
there because the actual path is really hard.
I have come to the floor multiple times and done entire presentations
on the MedPAC report. Those are functions of the models and auditors of
Medicare. There is a thing called Medicare Part C, Medicare Advantage.
I absolutely support it, but I want it to be the model that was
originally designed by Senator Frist in 2005 that said we are going to
build a model where it is capitated care. We are going to try to
incentivize the insurance company to make its money by helping the
population be healthier instead of constantly scoring people as sicker.
This report basically says there is about a $1.5 trillion, $2
trillion over 10 years. We won't call it fraud because it is not. They
are following the rules. We are the idiots that wrote the rules. Part
of those rules were changed during Obama Care.
If I came to you, Madam Speaker, and said I can find you $1 trillion,
$1.5 trillion, $2 trillion, we have a piece of legislation to align
that program with the incentives to keep people healthier. Our
preliminary score was $1.84 trillion, and the calculation said it would
actually help the population of seniors on Medicare Advantage, which is
55 percent of the population, be healthier because the insurance
companies that manage the program would be incentivized to make you,
help you, work with you to be healthier.
I can't get a single other Member of Congress to sponsor the bill
because it has the word ``Medicare'' in it, because, God forbid, we
tell the truth around here.
Let's actually do some more math. Here is another report that was out
on the dispatch. It is a long format, leans conservative, leans real
free market, but talking about even if we use current CBO math, my
little boy who is 3 years old today, when he turns 33, the United
States will have a couple hundred trillion dollars in debt when my
little boy is 33 years old, and that was using the previous CBO
numbers. The problem is the previous CBO numbers are now wrong.
Since February until today--since February until today, you have
about what they call 40 basis points of increase in interest rates.
Okay, big deal. Forty basis points of interest if it sticks for the
next 10 years, that is over $1.3 trillion in additional interest.
Let's do this again. Social Security is our biggest spend in the
Federal Government. Okay. It is an earned benefit. You earned it. We
owe it. We are going to spend about $1.6 trillion this year.
Anyone want to guess what the second biggest spend is? Interest. If
you do
[[Page H3522]]
the interest that we owe to those who bought our bonds and the money we
have also borrowed from the trust funds, we are going to pay over $1.2
trillion, $1.3 trillion this year just in interest.
Okay. What is the third biggest expense? Medicare, about $1.1
trillion, and Medicare will double, double in spending over the next 7
years. So it goes to $2 trillion.
Number four is actually Medicaid and Obama Care subsidies, ACA
subsidies.
Number five is actually defense. The thing that is actually in the
U.S. Constitution is the number five in our spending stack.
Let's actually have a little fun. We are going to take in about $5
trillion, $5.25 trillion in tax receipts. Okay. Let's say we made a
deal. We are only going to spend what we get. Okay. So I just covered
Social Security, 1.6. We are going to cover interest, about 1.2. We are
going to cover Medicare, about 1.1. We are going to cover Medicaid and
ACA subsidies, about 1. You basically right there have spent every dime
of tax receipts.
Your government is basically an insurance company with an army, and
the army is on borrowed money. The rest of the government is on
borrowed money. When we send money to the States, my State of Arizona,
our appropriated budget is about $17.8 billion, $17.9 billion. Total
spending is closer to $73 billion, $74 billion.
What is that differential? Well, almost half the spending of my State
of Arizona is actually revenue sharing, programs, matching things that
we send from the Federal Government, except that money is borrowed.
If you are a State government, are you prepared for when this place
can't even afford to meet those obligations because everything we are
doing is on borrowed money? It is important to think about.
I have done entire presentations here talking about the concept of
interest fragility, and no one cares until the moment you have a failed
bond auction.
Now our experts are actually saying that the age of lower interest
rates probably isn't coming upon us. You do realize the 2-year
instrument of United States debt has been hovering about 4 percent. You
go, oh, why are you talking about math? The Federal funds rate is down
here.
{time} 1930
We always say, well, if the Fed would lower interest rates--once
again, basic economics. The Federal funds rate is only on what they
call the short end of the curve. It has very little effect on the 10
years and up. The 30-year bond went over 5 percent this week. It is the
highest interest rate in 19 years.
Does anyone talk about it? Remember, we borrow money. The world is
borrowing money. The Chinese Government and other governments are
bingeing on debt.
The industrialized world has gotten old. We have much of our
population that is moving out of its productive years and moving into
its retirement benefit years. We have a society all over the
industrialized world where population is flat or shrinking.
Our Census Bureau, a couple of weeks ago, put out an abstract. If you
actually read through their tables, they had the United States highly
likely sometime in the next 5 years going negative--United States going
negative on population growth.
I showed that slide in a speech I gave last week at home, and I had
this woman say: ``Yay.'' I said: ``Okay. You think there are too many
people. Fine. How do you want me to finance Social Security and
Medicare and all the other benefits?'' She just stared at me and said:
``Well, tax rich people.''
Now, this is a Republican meeting. I just happened to have in my
binder a chart that showed her that we can take every dime from those
rich people, and you pay for the government for about 8 months or 9
months.
Then, I asked her: ``How would you like to finance things?'' All I
got was this stare because, look, when you have a world where people
get their news from this thing, when much of what people know is either
doomscrolling or clickbait, I beg of you--this is important. This is
the survival of our Republic. We have made it 250 years. Do my kids
deserve to be in this country? Does this deserve to be another American
century? It can be.
I have done presentation after presentation after presentation on how
we can crash the price of healthcare; how we can adopt technology to do
things better, faster, and cheaper; and how we can stabilize debt.
Remember, all the rage around here about 2 months ago was that we are
going to pass a motion to borrow only 3 percent of GDP. Love it.
Madam Speaker, at this moment, we are pushing--I think 3.4 percent or
3.5 percent of GDP is just interest from the Federal Government. You
tell me what spending you want to cut, and then you tell me what bonds
we are going to pay off.
There is a math experiment that is very simple. Remember how we
passed a balanced budget amendment a couple of weeks ago, but no one
was willing to tell you how to get there. If, next year, we wanted to
balance the budget, I can do it. You have to cut half of Federal
spending. If you do the feedback effects in the economy, you would have
to cut one-half of Federal spending.
I need you to think about what I am saying here, so let's do this.
This is as we built the budget. Do you see this blue area, nondefense
discretionary, defense? That is the only thing a Member of Congress
gets to vote on, unless it is a reconciliation budget, and then we have
been wasting those because we have been unwilling to tell the truth and
do the cuts that are required, to start to tell the bond market that we
are serious to bring down interest rates.
Once again, the way you bring down interest rates: convince the bond
markets that we are incredibly creditworthy, that we are doing the
things that are not inflating the economy by pumping all sorts of
borrowed spending into the economy, and, therefore, raising interest
rates by raising inflation.
The rest of the red is on autopilot. The problem is that if you want
to look at the pie, every dime of defense is borrowed. Every dime in
nondefense discretionary is borrowed, and a big chunk of--choose
whatever you want--is borrowed.
How long can we keep doing this? Seriously, how long can we keep
doing this? I chair the Joint Economic Committee. I am No. 4 on the
Ways and Means Committee. I chair the Oversight Subcommittee. I have
been doing all the waste and fraud investigations I can, whether it be
hospice care, particularly in L.A. County--it is trying to expose the
things going on in New York, the organ procurement fraud, all the work
we have done on trying to fix the misalignment in Medicare Advantage.
Yet, the armies of lobbyists up and down these hallways--many of them
are wonderful people--the armies of people from our home districts who
come into our office who tell us how much they want us to cut
spending--no, they don't ask us to cut spending, do they?
I will do a presentation to my own people from Arizona and say:
``Here is what we are up against.'' They will say: ``That is very
interesting. Now, will you listen to my request for more spending?''
The other one that is even more perverse is that we get businesses
that come into our office and try to explain how they want us to
regulate their competition.
I thought we were the free market party. I thought we were the party
that believed prosperity was moral, that the way you help our brothers
and sisters be less poor is an economy that works, that allocates its
resources where you maximize prosperity.
Are we doing that right now? The math basically says that when you do
the adjustments for inflation--now, a lot of this is the inflation from
4 years or 5 years ago. The people in my State are still poorer today
than they were 5 years ago.
Wage growth hasn't even gotten close to catching up. Where is the
fixation on the people who we claim that we care about and love? We are
conservatives. We are supposed to love people. We are supposed to
believe in freedom. We are supposed to believe in prosperity, but we
are so busy selling shiny objects so we can get on cable news or be a
YouTube celebrity or a Twitter celebrity tonight, we make crap up. We
do salacious things. We throw out things where we have never told the
truth about the underlying math, or we know that the math doesn't work.
[[Page H3523]]
My Joint Economic Committee did our report, the Republican side, and
we did something really hard. We spent months working on this. We
talked about a unified theory: Here is how we bring prosperity back.
Here is how we bring wage growth back. Here is how we start to
stabilize the U.S. debt.
Yet, you have to be willing to tell the truth. Yet, the troll army:
``Well, they talked about talent-based immigration.''
I also talked about ending H-1B visas because of the misallocation in
wage suppression and going to a model that would actually increase
wages, but you have to be willing to read the report. Yes, it is
hundreds of pages, and there are fancy formulas in there that, unless
you had advanced calculus, you are not going to get the math, but we do
the explanation under it. The rest of the reading is actually pretty
easy.
The reason we wrote this is that we are trying to make the point that
we can do this. There is a mathematical policy way that we can bring
back prosperity. We can bring back actual affordability, your
retirement. My kids have a chance.
Other than six of us and half of those reading it to try to find a
way to attack us, and the other half because they don't have a life,
please, someone out there read the Joint Economic Report from the
Republicans. We worked hard on this. The math, in some ways, is
brilliant. The policies work, but there are things in there that are
controversial.
You are going to have to talk about automation, accepting technology,
bringing the benefits of possible automation, labor substitution to
grow the economy, two things to raise up wages.
It is possible, but we have to tell the truth, and we have a real
situation in our country.
I know this chart is a little hard to read, but I have a simple point
I am trying to make. If you go back to 2019, all the way to April,
where we are at right now, and you basically take a look at all nonfarm
growth, it is actually up only about 4 percent.
What is way up here that has had a 24 percent growth? What has had
the 17 percent growth? Those are, functionally, employment from welfare
programs. This is like, I think, in Medicaid, visiting family members,
getting signed up, and getting paid for it. This is essentially welfare
services in healthcare.
The problem with healthcare is--what is it?--about 67 percent, maybe
even more, of healthcare dollars come from the Federal Government. In
my State of Arizona, last year, we produced only 24,000 new jobs.
{time} 1940
Every single one of those new jobs was in healthcare and welfare
services. Private-sector jobs actually fell. Last month in Arizona, we
lost about 10,800 jobs. Private-sector jobs shrank. We are now either
47th or 45th from the bottom or to the bottom in affordability in
Arizona. Of my three wage categories, two of the wage categories went
down. They lost--not even inflation adjusted, the raw number--they lost
salary structure.
Why do we care?
Look, you try to explain the basic math on these things. Do we care
and love our brothers and sisters? We are tracking this, and I am
trying to get better data. This chart is a little hard to read, but
those little tops you see with the orange and the yellow? Those are
delinquencies. Those are delinquencies that are starting to grow
economically in our society, people who are having trouble making their
mortgage payment, people who are having trouble making their car
payment. I don't think this even has student loans in it.
The fact of the matter is, we did some really good things in the tax
policy last year, but we haven't done all the other things that are
required from us to get the economy roaring to open up markets.
Look, when it is illegal in the United States to modernize a port--we
have the least efficient ports in the industrialized world. I know that
is uncomfortable because I just made a union mad by saying that, but
the fact of the matter is we care about pricing. We care about supply
chains. We care about inflation. We care about affordability, but then
we are going to basically do the very things that stop the efficiencies
in our economy.
Maybe we could legalize the very technologies, the very things in our
world that would make the world more prosperous. Are we too busy
pandering to the last group of lobbyists that came into our office?
Look, a local example, just because I care about this: I used to be
the Maricopa County treasurer. Maricopa County is the most populous
county in the United States. All right. I was the tax collector. I was
the investment officer. I was the bank. So I had a really good staff.
We did lots of great things.
If I walk in tomorrow and say, all right, let's get rid of the income
tax in my State, that is great. I love it. It is about 31 percent of
the budget that is appropriated. Okay. Tell me what you want to cut.
Tell me where we are going to move, because understand, if you wanted
to make that up and say we are just going to cut it on the income tax
and move it to the property tax, you just doubled grandma's property
taxes.
Is that your plan? Is that what we are actually going to do?
Now, we have actually offered ideas to lower the cost of government
where we think we can cut that rate down by a third, 40 percent, but
you systematically have to have a plan to do things. It is the same
thing here. We talk a big game, but you notice we avoid telling the
truth about the details of what it takes. And I think the public, the
voters we represent, the voters we claim we care about, have gotten to
the point where they are tired of the fraud. If you are going to give
us an idea, tell us how you get there. Tell us the math.
I have used the sarcastic comments behind this microphone a dozen
times. I work in a math-free zone. If you are going to make a proposal,
maybe we should try something new, Madam Speaker. If we are going to
make a proposal, demonstrate how you are going to get there.
Demonstrate how the math actually works.
There are ways to make it happen. Nothing is easy, but it is doable.
Lay out a plan.
Look, we have been doing presentations around Arizona on how we could
crash the price of our Medicaid system. It will take a couple years,
but through technology, helping our brothers and sisters be healthier,
we think we can remove hundreds of millions of dollars in spending.
We can end fraud in much of our government programs tomorrow by
simple adoption of data systems. So think about this: One of the great
perversities--and actually part of it is in this MedPAC book. If you
look at it, we pay fraudsters, and then the current government model is
we hire auditors, and then we hire lawyers. How often do we ever get
any money back? How often do people actually end up in jail?
May I propose a suggestion? Stop letting the damn money go out the
door in the first place. The pay and chase model is from a different
century, a different decade. We have the technology today, whether you
want to call it AI, algorithmic, the fact of the matter is someone is
requesting benefits. Their data doesn't match.
These hospices that were popping up all over L.A. County, the first
time we start to look at their data, we knew they were a fraud.
The fact of the matter is we have the technology today; we can stop
the waste and fraud in government. Maybe the public would start to
believe in us again if they knew their money wasn't going to
fraudsters.
We can do that particularly at my State level where we had, what,
$2.8 billion in sober living home fraud that could have been caught, I
have been told, by a $1,500 simple accounting AI package. It would have
seen it immediately, and it would have saved $2.8 billion. Is that
Republican or Democrat?
Now, I know it upsets the people that are the auditors, the people
that make their living, but this needs to be about the taxpayers and
about the American people. We have ways to fix these things.
Why don't we have the intellectual gravitas or whatever fancy word we
want to use around this place to actually try and do it instead of
continuing to do the trite?
Madam Speaker, I appreciate you tolerating me, and I did mention I
have had a lot of caffeine already today.
Madam Speaker, I yield back the balance of my time.
[[Page H3524]]
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