[Congressional Record Volume 170, Number 149 (Tuesday, September 24, 2024)]
[House]
[Pages H5736-H5741]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]




                              {time}  2030
           UNSUSTAINABLE, CRIPPLING FEDERAL DEFICIT AND DEBT

  The SPEAKER pro tempore. Under the Speaker's announced policy of 
January 9, 2023, the gentleman from Hawaii (Mr. Case) is recognized for 
one-half of the remaining time until 10 p.m. as the designee of the 
minority leader.
  Mr. CASE. Mr. Speaker, tonight I join colleagues from both parties in 
focusing attention on what is truly one of the quietest and most 
avoided crises in America today. I speak very directly of our Federal 
budget and, in particular, its unsustainable, crippling Federal deficit 
and debt.
  This silent but accelerating crisis threatens all of us, not only 
these generations, but generations into the future. This crisis is all 
of a fiscal crisis, an economic crisis, a social crisis, and a security 
crisis.
  Mr. Speaker, it is a crisis that we are, frankly, busy denying. We 
are certainly avoiding it and explaining it away, but I think we all 
know instinctively in this country, and some of us know very 
consciously in this country, that it is an imminent crisis.
  Tonight, colleagues of both parties and I, all of us members of our 
Bipartisan Fiscal Forum, which has 87 bipartisan Members of the House 
who are committed to facing and solving this threat, want to discuss 
this issue in a very brief discussion to assure we do not keep sweeping 
this crisis under the rug.
  We will highlight how our Federal finances work, what is going wrong 
and why, what are the severe consequences if we don't correct the 
cause, and what can we do about it.
  I will go into details later, but I first want to invite my 
colleagues to share some of their concerns and perspectives.
  Mr. Speaker, I yield to the gentleman from Wisconsin (Mr. Grothman), 
a member of the Budget Committee, an accounting and fiscal management 
professional before his time in Congress, a

[[Page H5737]]

member also of the Committee on Education and the Workforce and 
Committee on Oversight and Accountability, and someone who knows his 
way around the budget.
  Mr. GROTHMAN. Mr. Speaker, I thank the gentleman for yielding.
  I don't know whether the people back home realize how rare it is for 
a Democrat to be calling upon a Republican to speak about a bill, but 
it is a testament to the size of our fiscal crisis and the fact that we 
have a lot of very good, bipartisan type legislators in this building.
  In any event, our national debt now stands at an astronomical $35 
trillion. It is an unconscionably large debt, which is the result of 
decades of wasteful Washington spending, and it is a problem both 
parties have contributed to.
  To put it in historical perspective, as a share of our economy, the 
last time the debt was this high was at the end of World War II. Last 
year, the Federal Government spent more than $6 trillion and racked up 
a deficit of $1.7 trillion, the third highest annual deficit in our 
country's history.
  One of the most frightening aspects of our out-of-control spending is 
the accelerating interest costs, which, of course, we can't reduce.
  So far in 2024, we have spent $870 billion on interest costs. That is 
more than we spent on Medicare or the military. It is way more than we 
spend on the military.
  To illustrate how profligate the government is, let's take a look at 
how much of each year's spending was borrowed: 2018, 19 cents; 2019, 22 
cents; 2020, 48 cents; 2021, 40 cents; 2022, 22 cents; and 2023, 28 
cents. We expect this trend to continue for at least the next 5 years.
  One cause of the red ink in recent years has been the use and abuse 
of emergency spending. The debt ceiling deal that was passed earlier 
this year set caps on discretionary spending, although there is a 
loophole that allows certain spending to be designated as emergency 
spending, and that is not subject to the cap.
  While there are some items that are genuine emergencies, too often, 
Congress slaps the term ``emergency spending'' on projects it simply 
wants to fund despite the caps.
  Here are a few examples of Federal spending that were labeled as 
emergency spending: $6.6 million for the replacement of irrigation 
systems at two golf courses in Colorado Springs, $12 million for the 
renovation of a minor league ballpark in New York State, and $70 
million for tourism marketing in Puerto Rico.
  These emergency designations add up. Last year, Congress designated 
$162 billion in emergency spending. This year, it is up to $196 
billion. In fact, over the last 30 years, Congress has provided $12 
trillion in emergency spending.
  I have been here for some of these, and I don't consider them 
emergencies. As soon as ``emergency'' is slapped on them, it means the 
money can be spent with reckless abandon.
  Clearly, if we are going to tackle our debt and deficit problem, 
Congress will have to break its addiction to emergency spending, the 
culture of rampant emergency spending abuses encouraged by the CBO's 
baseline budget. By law, the CBO is required to assume that any 
spending Congress designates as emergency spending will continue on 
throughout the entire 10-year budget window and grow with inflation. 
This is obviously reckless.
  Keep in mind, emergency spending is meant for one-time spending, not 
spending that goes on in perpetuity. You would never know that based on 
the way the CBO does these things.
  In fact, the most recent CBO baseline update demonstrates the need 
for this bill. In the June report, CBO raised the projected spending 
over the next 10 years by $945 billion. Nearly all of this projected 
increase is due to $95 billion in supplemental foreign aid spending 
Congress passed earlier this year.
  Does it make sense for CBO to assume this temporary spending will 
continue for all 10 years? It is ridiculous on its face.

  To address this challenge, I am pleased to work with the gentleman 
from Hawaii (Mr. Case) to introduce the Stop the Baseline Bloat Act. 
This bill would amend the relevant law to ensure emergency spending is 
not included in CBO's baseline. Getting our fiscal house in order, we 
must start with a neutral baseline, and this bill will make a 
meaningful step toward fiscal sanity.
  Mr. Speaker, for this reason, I am pleased that this bill will be 
marked up by the House Budget Committee tomorrow morning. I hope this 
commonsense bill receives widespread bipartisan support.
  I thank the gentleman from Hawaii (Mr. Case) for his leadership in 
putting this bipartisan Special Order together and for leading the Stop 
the Baseline Bloat Act.
  Mr. CASE. Mr. Speaker, I thank the gentleman for highlighting not 
only the overall crisis, but certainly many of the process concerns 
that we all have in terms of full transparency and full accountability 
from the perspective of getting our budget under control.
  Mr. Speaker, I now yield to the gentlewoman from Pennsylvania (Ms. 
Houlahan), an entrepreneur and a small business person herself, a 
member of the Committee on Armed Services and Permanent Select 
Committee on Intelligence, and somebody that also knows her way around 
a budget.
  Ms. HOULAHAN. Mr. Speaker, I thank the gentleman for yielding and for 
the opportunity to speak on this Special Order.
  Mr. Speaker, I rise today with my colleagues as a very proud member 
of the Bipartisan Fiscal Forum Steering Committee. Together, we are 
very much committed to addressing one of the greatest threats to our 
Nation's long-term stability, and that is that of our unsustainable 
debt trajectory.
  We also understand that we simply can't afford to treat our fiscal 
future like a political football. I represent Pennsylvania's Sixth 
Congressional District, a very purple community, where people 
understand that fiscal responsibility isn't a partisan issue, but it is 
a community value. We know that our prosperity both at home and across 
the country depends on smart and responsible fiscal stewardship.
  Before coming to Congress, I was a business leader in Pennsylvania, 
and I have seen firsthand the risks and consequences of debt when it is 
not carefully managed. Businesses that ignore fiscal discipline may 
eventually falter. They may lose investors, may lose opportunities, or 
may even fail.
  In the same way, if we continue on our current fiscal path as a 
nation, we could also find ourselves on similarly dangerous ground.
  Over the past few years, this Nation and consequently the Federal 
Government has faced very costly and unprecedented challenges, from 
responding to the global pandemic, to defending our allies abroad from 
brutal, illegal attacks, to historic emergency national disasters. 
These crises have demanded investments and American leadership to 
protect our country and to support our global partners.
  However, as interest rates now dip and inflation lowers and eases, 
now is, in fact, the time to refocus our efforts. In the coming months, 
we must have serious conversations about the future of our long-term 
fiscal health. As we look toward this future, the long-term 
implications of our national debt demand our attention and demand 
action.
  Right now, as has been mentioned, the U.S. national debt is over $35 
trillion, larger than our entire economy's GDP. On a similar note, 
according to the Congressional Budget Office, if we fail to change 
course, interest payments on that debt alone are projected to exceed $1 
trillion annually by 2033. That is $1 trillion just to pay the 
interest, money that could otherwise go toward infrastructure, 
families, education, and national security.
  Speaking of national security, I want to be clear: Our economic 
security is absolutely directly tied to our ability to defend ourselves 
and to lead on the global stage. The more that we borrow, the more we 
depend on foreign creditors, and the less flexibility that we have in 
making decisions that are in our national interests.
  As our interest outlays increase, the less funding we have to spend 
on things like our military's preparedness. We cannot afford to have 
our hands tied by debt when it comes to protecting this Nation.
  In Congress, we face critical deadlines in the coming months. As we 
prepare to vote on yet another short-term

[[Page H5738]]

funding extension this week, we are reminded that a bipartisan full-
year compromise for fiscal year 2025 government funding has yet to be 
reached.
  Early next year, we will once again face the debt ceiling. These are 
not abstract deadlines. These are real and pressing moments where we 
have the opportunity to get control of our fiscal future together, but 
that opportunity is slipping away if we continue to delay these 
difficult decisions and if we continue to politicize this issue.
  So that is why the Bipartisan Fiscal Forum exists. We are here. We 
are here to sound the alarm, and also to propose durable solutions, 
solutions like a bipartisan fiscal commission, or the Fiscal 
Responsibility Act that we passed just last year.
  Our mission as a group is to raise the profile of this issue with our 
colleagues and with the public while ensuring that we have healthy, 
constructive debates on fiscal policies here in Congress.
  As a bipartisan group, we know that this is not about scoring 
political points. This is about securing a sustainable future for our 
children and for our grandchildren. We may not agree on every solution 
or on the levers to pull, increasing revenues or decreasing costs, but 
we cannot afford to continue to keep kicking the can down the road.
  I urge my colleagues on both sides of the aisle to please come 
together, to set aside partisanship, and to work toward a balanced, 
sustainable budget. We owe that to the American people.
  Mr. CASE. Mr. Speaker, I thank my colleague so much for her very 
realistic and eyes-wide-open assessment of our Federal budget, and 
especially the focus on its impact on our national security from her 
own perspective in that space because I think we sometimes forget that 
this is a security risk, as well as a risk elsewhere.

  Mr. Speaker, I yield to the gentleman from Michigan (Mr. Huizenga), 
the co-chair of our Bipartisan Fiscal Forum, a small business person 
himself in his prior life, a member of the Financial Services 
Committee, Foreign Affairs Committee, and a leader in this area.
  I thank the gentleman for joining us.
  Mr. HUIZENGA. Mr. Speaker, I appreciate the gentleman from Hawaii 
(Mr. Case), my friend, for yielding time. This is a very important 
discussion to be having, not just among ourselves, but with the Nation 
and with the country.
  Mr. Speaker, I start by thanking the gentleman not only for his 
sincere interest in this issue, but our growing friendship, as well. As 
I tell people back home, so often, you need to have a relationship 
first to then be able to build trust. When you build that trust, that 
is when you can go and find those solutions.
  I am sure the gentleman has some constituents in Hawaii, much like I 
have constituents over in Michigan who sometimes say: Why are you even 
talking to those people? Let's just ignore them.
  Well, sorry, folks. We can't do that. That is not reality. We have to 
deal with our colleagues, and guess what. We have gotten a very special 
group of people who have said: We realize that we are not going to be 
able to solve every problem. We are not even going to try to solve 
every problem, but this is a growing issue and problem for us that we 
need to focus and concentrate on.
  Mr. Speaker, the gentleman is using this as an opportunity, the same 
as I will, to discuss some difficult truths about what we are facing 
and what my constituents back in southwest Michigan and the gentleman's 
constituents in Hawaii are all dealing with.
  Frankly, the size of our national debt is just climbing at an 
alarming rate. It now exceeds over $35 trillion with a t.
  Probably like a lot of our colleagues here, I visit schools and I 
talk to kids, and I will oftentimes ask them: How many zeroes in a 
trillion? Usually the first answer is: A lot.
  Yes, that is true. I tell these kids: You know what you need to do at 
some point today? Write down a 1 with 12 zeroes behind it, but then 
don't start at the left. Start at the right and see what $1,000 looks 
like, what $100,000 looks like, what $1 million, $10 million, $100 
million, and $1 billion looks like, and you still see all these zeroes 
that you have to keep counting through.
  Well, that $35 trillion that we have spent here on the big giant 
credit card, Uncle Sam's credit card, is actually projected to reach 
closer to $57 trillion in the next 10 years.
  There are consequences to that. There are consequences to that. We 
can joke around and maybe understand that people aren't aware of what 
is going on. I have sort of had this running joke in our office that we 
need to put a big giant debt clock up here in the House Chamber to just 
remind people.
  We have got to go out there and make sure that people understand that 
what is happening is this debt is crowding out other priorities, so 
much so that, this year, if projections hold true, we are going to see 
interest on the debt to exceed our military spending.

                              {time}  2045

  Just think of that: Interest on the debt for what we have already 
spent is going to exceed what we are going to be spending not just on 
the military but also for every program that touches kids here in this 
country.
  That is more than Medicare. That is more than the military. We have 
to get serious about this.
  I think everybody can understand the concept of having a credit card 
that has gotten a little too high, and they feel like they have had to 
use it because of inflation and the things going on. Think about how 
the interest on your credit card is now outpacing your grocery bill or 
outpacing your auto loan. How can you possibly function as a family? 
You can't.
  We have to understand the debt that we have delivered here is helping 
drive some of that inflation. Interest rates that are there, the money 
that is getting taken away from other programs, is real.
  I am the father of some college-aged kids and a small business owner, 
as you were kind enough to mention. My family is in construction. I am 
a former realtor. I understand and talk to people on a regular basis 
about what this means in their lives, and there is a real factor 
impacting your family, my family, and all of our constituents' 
families, as well.
  In addition to the debt threatening to bankrupt our Nation's promises 
to seniors, to fueling inflation-causing interest payments, the 
national debt also slows economic growth. It drives up interest rates 
and leaves us less prepared for emergencies, whether it is a COVID-like 
emergency, a military-like emergency, or a natural disaster emergency. 
Suddenly, these things could plunge our Nation into even more chaos 
than what it would be normally because we are having these issues.
  For these reasons, and with the help of many of our colleagues who 
are speaking tonight--Mr. Grothman spoke, Mr. Moore is going to be 
speaking, Mr. Case, and so many others--we are really trying to tackle 
this with our Bipartisan Fiscal Forum.
  My co-chair, Scott Peters, has been a great partner in this, and he 
and I together introduced H.R. 5779, the Fiscal Commission Act, 
earlier. That would force our Congress to tackle our national debt by 
voting on a package of policy recommendations designed to get our 
Nation's fiscal house in order, both in the short term and in the long 
term.
  As was quoted by Ms. Houlahan earlier, we are looking at real cuts in 
Social Security. We are looking at real cuts in Medicare. Those should 
not be acceptable. We have to wrestle this dragon to the ground.
  I am proud that our legislation passed the House Budget Committee on 
a bipartisan basis, but we have a lot more work to do. The purpose of 
tonight is continuing to raise that awareness with a national audience, 
not just our colleagues but our constituencies, as well.
  We have to make sure that people understand crystal clear how serious 
this issue is and the real impacts it has, making life less affordable 
and more difficult on our constituencies, not just in the short term 
but certainly in the long run for our kids and our grandkids.
  I know the Bipartisan Fiscal Forum, with my colleague's leadership 
and others, stands ready to work with anybody. We will work with 
anybody who is interested in this.
  As has been stated, we may not always agree on the path, but we agree 
on the destination. That is the important part: making sure that we get 
to that destination because that really is

[[Page H5739]]

what we owe our kids and grandkids and future generations of Americans.
  Mr. CASE. Mr. Speaker, I appreciate my colleague's leadership very 
much. Not only do we agree on the destination, but we agree on the 
problem. When you can agree on what the problem is, you can usually get 
to a solution. What we need to do is all agree on that problem on a 
bipartisan basis.
  Mr. Speaker, I yield to my colleague from Utah (Mr. Moore), a 
steering committee member of the Bipartisan Fiscal Forum, a member of 
the Budget Committee and the Ways and Means Committee, another small 
business person, and somebody who also knows his way around a budget.
  Mr. MOORE of Utah. Mr. Speaker, I thank the gentleman from Hawaii for 
yielding. I really appreciate this opportunity.
  Mr. Speaker, I rise alongside a bipartisan group of colleagues to 
discuss our Nation's greatest threat: the unsustainable deficit and 
spiraling national debt.
  I thank my friend, Congressman Case, for hosting this Special Order 
this evening and for his continued leadership on the Bipartisan Fiscal 
Forum.
  Today, our gross national debt exceeds $35 trillion. Our budget 
deficit is expected to reach $1.9 trillion this year. Spending on 
interest payments just to service our debt will surpass what we spend 
on Medicare and national defense each, individually. This is the grave 
reality of our fiscal situation.
  As we all know, this is not an easy issue, and it is a problem 
created by both parties. Durable and lasting solutions will likewise 
require bipartisan partnership to address these difficult budgetary 
realities.
  I am grateful for groups like the Bipartisan Fiscal Forum, where 
Members who recognize the catastrophic threat posed by our fiscal state 
come together to elevate this issue and find commonsense solutions.
  As a father of four boys, this issue is deeply personal to me. I want 
my sons' generation to have the same chance at the American Dream that 
previous generations have had.
  Our national debt matters, and if we don't deal with it, our children 
and their children will bear the burden of higher inflation and 
interest costs, slower economic growth, and the national security risks 
associated with bloated Federal Government.
  Utah, my State, is a model for responsible budgeting with a balanced 
budget every year and a consistent rainy-day fund. This is why, during 
my first term in Congress, I established a Debt and Deficit Task Force 
back home in Utah, comprised of leaders from across the State to create 
a framework of solutions for how elected officials should address our 
Nation's debt crisis with Utah's fiscally responsible values.

  The four main pillars of our framework include growing the economy, 
saving and strengthening vital programs, focusing America's spending, 
and fixing Congress' budget process.
  I know that several of my colleagues involved in the Bipartisan 
Fiscal Forum have recognized many of the same structural issues and are 
working hard to change the tide here in Washington.
  As a member of the Budget Committee, I have been proud of the work we 
have done this Congress to raise the profile of our national debt and 
deficit crisis.
  Earlier this year, the committee passed my Fiscal State of the Nation 
Act, which would require the nonpartisan Comptroller General to provide 
an annual update on the Nation's finances to a joint meeting of 
Congress and help the Nation understand the scope of the problem.
  I applaud Chairman Jodey Arrington for leading the charge on a lot of 
important legislation and conversations that are making the dangers of 
our Federal debt crisis feel more real to the American people.
  The committee also advanced a very important and significant 
bipartisan Fiscal Commission Act, crucial legislation led by 
Congressman Huizenga from Michigan and Congressman Peters from 
California.
  The bill would establish a commission tasked with identifying 
policies to improve the fiscal situation in the medium term and attain 
a sustainable debt-to-GDP ratio over the longer term. The commission 
would operate in an open and transparent manner, and importantly, it 
provides for expedited consideration on the House and Senate floor. 
That is something we haven't always had in these similar types of 
approaches, that there would be expedited consideration to force a 
House and Senate floor vote.
  While establishing a fiscal commission is critical in the short term, 
I know many of my colleagues would agree that we need to reform our 
budget process to help make sustainable budgeting possible.
  To illustrate the scope of the budget process challenges, here are a 
few figures: Congress has not adopted a budget on time since 2003; 
Congress has not passed all appropriations on time since 1996; and the 
only time Congress has passed both the budget resolution and 
appropriations by the deadline was 1977.
  The Budget Committee is working hard on budget process reform, and I 
know members of the Bipartisan Fiscal Forum have ideas to revamp the 
process, as well.
  A bipartisan bill I introduced with Congresswoman Marie Gluesenkamp 
Perez to tackle this problem is the Comprehensive Congressional Budget 
Act, which would take the next step toward an effective and inclusive 
congressional budgeting process by including all spending and revenue 
in the budget process and requiring contributions from committees with 
direct spending or revenue jurisdiction.
  I emphasize ``all spending'' because, as I listed off things where we 
have fallen short over the last 50 years, it is not even highlighting 
the most important aspect: We don't vote on more than 75 percent of our 
budget. All 435 of us and 100 Senators are responsible in our Article I 
duty for our Federal budget, and we vote on approximately 23 percent of 
that.
  This Comprehensive Congressional Budget Act would force Congress to 
take into consideration the entirety of the budget, and it would give 
the committees the right responsibility. We would have to roll up our 
sleeves and actually have to deal with the entirety of the budget 
because the fact that we just vote on appropriations bills doesn't 
solve a single thing.
  Next year will be an important year as we deal with major fiscal 
cliffs. Beyond the annual appropriations process, we will have to deal 
with the reinstatement of the debt limit in addition to trillions of 
dollars of tax expirations that will affect every American family.
  Groups like the Bipartisan Fiscal Forum are incredibly valuable as we 
take on the challenges and opportunities ahead of us in 2025.
  Mr. Speaker, I look forward to continuing this important work.
  Mr. CASE. Mr. Speaker, I thank so much my colleague for his 
leadership, as well. I really appreciate his highlighting the 
intergenerational consequences of not solving this issue today.
  Mr. Speaker, may I inquire as to the time remaining.
  The SPEAKER pro tempore. The gentleman from Hawaii has 20 minutes 
remaining.
  Mr. CASE. Mr. Speaker, I really appreciate my colleagues spending the 
time here tonight.
  Now, I will go back and add a little bit of detail, so that we can 
fully illustrate what the issue is, how we got here, what the 
consequences are, why we need to do something about it, and how we do 
so.
  The first thing I will start with is something very basic, and that 
is: How do our Federal finances actually work? First and foremost, our 
Federal finances are no different in concept than our family or 
business budgets, fundamentally.
  In our Federal finance situation, our taxes and fees create revenues 
for our government. Our programs create the expenses for our 
government. If the revenues exceed expenses, we call that a surplus. If 
expenses exceed revenues, that is a deficit. We calculate both revenues 
and expenses and surpluses and deficits on an annual fiscal year. When 
we are talking about a deficit or surplus, we are talking about what 
happened in a particular fiscal year.
  How do we address a deficit if we have it? It is easy to understand 
how we deal with a surplus. We spend the money that we got and, 
hopefully, save up a little bit for the next year, just like any 
family, any business.

[[Page H5740]]

  What do we do about deficits? We will borrow that money, and we 
mostly borrow it by issuing government bonds to people around the 
country and world who want to invest in our government bonds, believing 
that the United States is the most secure investment in the entire 
world, but we also borrow intergovernment or, more accurately, 
intragovernment.
  We are busy borrowing, for example, from the Social Security trust 
fund, which is building up a surplus toward a time when it needs it far 
more to pay Social Security benefits, and that money is due and owing 
to the Social Security trust fund.
  It creates extra pressure on the Social Security trust fund that 
money is not being used for Social Security. It is being used for 
everything but Social Security.
  Those borrowings in a family or business setting start to overwhelm 
you. We, of course, like anybody else, pay interest on what we have 
borrowed. Our total borrowings at any one time, which are essentially 
the accumulation of our deficits over time, are our total government 
debt.
  Just like any family or business, it would be nice to have no deficit 
or debt, but that is not most of us. It is fine to run some debt if 
that debt is not chronic, if that debt is not just an excuse to be 
irresponsible and avoid fiscally responsible behavior, and that debt is 
not too high in relationship to our overall budget or economy.
  We measure this many times by reference to our gross domestic 
product, how much our economy is producing. We calculate a debt-to-GDP 
ratio, which, if it is too high, starts to overwhelm the economy just 
like any family or business budget, or if the interest on the debt is 
not too high in relation to our total budget.

                              {time}  2100

  Bottom line, we can afford some debt but not if it starts to get away 
from us. This is, again, no different in concept than a family or 
business budget with one exception, and that is we can go on borrowing 
as long as we want, even irresponsible borrowing, whereas in a family 
and a business budget, that is going to catch up with you sooner or 
later.
  Now, what exactly is going wrong, and why is it going wrong?
  Well, the last year that we had a surplus in our Federal budget was 
2001, 23 years ago. We have run deficits every year since then.
  This illustrates our deficit track since 2001 down on this side, and 
you can see that it increased in the middle part of 2008, 2009, 2010, 
and 2011, during the Great Recession when we had higher expenditures 
for recovery and lower revenues because we were in a recession.
  Then, of course, this big bump right here is COVID when we had to 
borrow a lot of money, when we had to run deficits in order to bail our 
country out of a tremendous problem. These 2 years were deficits.
  Then we recovered in the post-COVID environment, but now we see it 
going up again for no real good reason other than that we are running 
deficits.
  We are now at $1.9 trillion per year, and if we carry that out over 
time, we will see deficits grow to about $2.9 trillion by 2034, not too 
many years away.
  How about our debt?
  This is our total debt, and it starts over on the left side back in 
1990. We had a pretty level debt increase until the early part of the 
2000s.
  The last time we had a surplus, we were managing debt. Then it 
started to take off with that recession. It started to take off more 
with irresponsible budgetary decisions on revenues and expenses.
  The scariest part is the acceleration of this curve right here, which 
takes us only to about 2022. Our debt was $7 trillion in 2004, $18 
trillion in 2014, $23 trillion in 2019, and now, as was already noted, 
it is up to $35 trillion--23 trillion to 35 trillion in 5 years.
  How about the measure of debt to GDP?
  As was discussed earlier, that is a really good indication of what is 
actually happening in our economy. This is our debt to GDP.
  Now, you can see this big bulge right here was the highest debt to 
GDP we have had to date. That was World War II when we had to borrow to 
win a war. We had to do that.
  Of course, the war, aside from being tragic, was not very good for 
the world economy. We had a real issue, as we always do in a war. This 
happens from a budget perspective.
  Here we see a rapid escalation in debt to GDP in the last 5 to 7 
years. This number right here is about 125 percent or 124 percent, 
which is our highest level of debt to GDP since World War II. Unless 
corrected, this is what is going to happen. It will shoot up over the 
next 10 years.
  Reference was made by my colleagues earlier to interest that we pay 
every year on our current national debt. Our annual interest on debt 
now is up to $892 billion, and as was mentioned by reference, that is 
more today than we spend on defense or Medicare.
  This line is interest, this red line right here. This line is defense 
extrapolated at the current levels out to 2034 from today, which is 
right over here. By the way, we all know that we need a very robust 
defense expenditure to handle the geopolitical challenges that we face. 
The green line is Medicare.
  The point here is unless we get interest under control, it will 
essentially surpass defense and continue at an increasing gap. Medicare 
is going up because it is costing more. It is staying up with Medicare, 
and it is essentially overwhelming our ability to pay for defense and 
Medicare, crowding out our national budget.
  Now, what are the consequences of carrying a very high deficit and a 
very high debt load? Why does debt matter, in so many words?
  Well, I am going to go through this pretty fast. Number one, I 
already said it. It crowds out other needed spending, defense and 
nondefense. It reduces fiscal flexibility, especially in crises.
  What if we did have another COVID today or tomorrow? What if we had a 
major expense that we didn't anticipate?
  Our debt and deficits would jack up, just as happened during COVID, 
just as we saw during the Second World War.
  The interest rates would jack up essentially exactly when we need to 
have a fiscally solvent and responsible base to build on. In other 
words, you have to prepare for crises. When you are not in a crisis, 
that is the time to get your thoughts in order, and when you go there, 
that is when you want the flexibility.
  It slows economic growth. It creates inflation pressure. It creates 
interest rate pressure. We have already talked about national security 
risks, especially with adversaries such as the People's Republic of 
China, who invest in our bonds.
  China owns a tremendous amount of our bonds. That gives China 
leverage over us. I don't want to be a borrower from China. It 
disincentivizes responsible budgeting internationally.
  Many countries around the world are facing budgetary pressures. If we 
can't run our own show, how can we ask them to run their own show 
responsibly?
  Finally, it feeds directly into arguments by the PRC and others that 
are seeking to replace our dollar as the world's reserve currency.
  Essentially, what they are saying is the dollar is not a stable, not 
a responsible, not a secure currency, so let's try our own. We are 
begging all of these questions right now.
  What do we do about all of this?
  There are a couple of things we can do. First of all, we can 
acknowledge the issue, and we can acknowledge the crisis, and we can 
acknowledge that we have something that we must work on.
  Number one, stop looking for marginal, illusory, magic solutions. For 
those that say we can grow our way out of this, no, we can't.
  We would have to have an annual growth rate of somewhere around the 
range of 10 percent a year, which is absolutely unrealistic for the 
foreseeable future, for us to solve this simply by growing this 
economy. Any economist would say that we are doing incredibly well to 
come even close to 10 percent a year.
  We can also stop the bleeding and reduce annual deficits through 
mechanisms such as paygo, which is a responsible process that we have 
followed sometimes, and lately not followed, under which whenever we 
reduce revenues through tax reductions, we have to offset them with 
expenses or revenue somewhere else or vice versa. Whenever we increase 
a program cost,

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we have to pay for it or else reduce another program cost so that it is 
budget neutral.
  We obviously need to rebalance revenue and expense over time in our 
tax and spending policies with major decisions coming up.
  Finally, as was mentioned, we probably need some major help with a 
fiscal commission. A fiscal commission can help us to sort through this 
in a nonpartisan, apolitical way to provide the expertise necessary to 
make recommendations that we must take a look at.
  To those that criticize fiscal commissions, I would pose the 
question, well, what is your solution, then? Is there a solution that 
you have that you think would help us to solve this incredible crisis?
  In conclusion, for the Bipartisan Fiscal Forum, my 87 colleagues and 
others who believe that this is, indeed, a crisis, we have a couple of 
steps that we have to go through.
  The first step is to stop the denial, which is where we are right 
now, for this to be an issue in our campaigns, in our elections, for 
this to be front and center in our public discourse scores.
  Then we have to ask, what can we do?
  There is plenty we can do.
  First of all, we can get through denial and get firmly into step 
number two, which is to do something about it. Then next, of course, 
acknowledge that the solutions are hard, but the alternative of doing 
nothing is and will be far, far harder.
  We urge acknowledgment and action both within our colleagues in 
Congress and especially with the American people as we consider this 
crisis.
  Mr. Speaker, I yield back the balance of my time.

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