[Congressional Record Volume 163, Number 183 (Thursday, November 9, 2017)]
[House]
[Pages H8690-H8694]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
TAX REFORM
The SPEAKER pro tempore. Under the Speaker's announced policy of
January 3, 2017, the gentleman from California (Mr. Sherman) is
recognized for 60 minutes as the designee of the minority leader.
Mr. SHERMAN. Mr. Speaker, I want to thank the Speaker for recognizing
me and indicating that I can speak for an hour. We get caught up in so
many issues here that we sometimes don't explore them in depth, and
with 1 hour, I plan to look in depth first at the President's trade
policy toward China, and then toward the Republican tax bill.
The President is meeting again with President Xi from China. They
will put out a beautiful joint statement, they will pose for
photographs, and there will even be a business deal or two to announce.
[[Page H8691]]
These are the two largest economies in the world. They involve tens
of trillions of dollars. So every month, a few big things happen that
are bad, and one or two big things happen that are good. There is
always a particular business deal that you can package and wrap as a
photo op.
But the fact is that we have to look at the overall trading
relationship. The trading relationship is this: we run hundreds of
billions of dollars of trade deficit, and every billion dollars of
trade deficit cost us 10,000 jobs.
So let's look at what has happened while President Trump has been in
office. We look each month at our trade and goods with the People's
Republic of China, and we start with a deficit of just a bit over $22
billion, and for the most recent statistics available, August of this
year, we are up to almost $35 billion.
What is interesting about this chart is that every month Trump has
been in office, our trade deficit with China has grown. Now, he can say
that he doesn't have the power to do anything about that; he just wants
to be a pretend President, a pretense President, a posing President. He
can pose for a picture, but he doesn't have the authority to do
anything.
That is completely wrong. Look at section 338 of the Tariff Act of
1930, and you will see that the President acting alone could eliminate
this deficit by imposing tariffs on Chinese goods now. But he won't do
that because his plan--and what he has done over the last 2 years is he
campaigns like he is Bernie Sanders at least on these issues, and he
governs like he is from Goldman Sachs which, of course, many of his
advisers actually are.
Even after the campaign was over in November of last year, the
campaign continues, and he continues to pretend to be in favor of the
trade policies associated with Bernie Sanders and others, and he
continues to govern in the interests of Goldman Sachs.
Now, this chart does not reflect services because services trade
between the United States and China is not available on a monthly
basis, but the trend would be exactly the same: huge growth in the
deficit month after month after month after month--February, March,
April, May, June, July, and August of this year--and likely to continue
for the other months that the President continues to serve and the
statistics become available.
Now, we are told perhaps that it is okay to give away all these
American jobs because we would need Chinese help to deal with North
Korea. Let's see how that is working out. The President, prior to this
trip, had met with President Xi twice, and now we have a third meeting.
After those first two meetings, North Korea explodes a hydrogen bomb
and tests a missile capable of reaching major cities in the mainland of
the United States all with the acquiescence of the Chinese Government.
So whether you are concerned with our national security or whether you
are concerned with jobs and trade policy, we can no longer have a
President who poses and pretends and ignores the statutory authority
that he has on laws that have been on the books since the 1930s.
Now let's talk about the Republican tax bill. This is a bill which
will raise taxes on millions of middle class families. Now, it gets
worse in a few years. There is a bit of a bait-and-switch. They will
want to tell you: Just look at how this bill will affect your tax
return in 2019.
If you plan to still be alive in 2027, take a look at the effect it
is going to have then.
Let's look at middle class families--not the poorest 20 percent in
our country, not the richest 20 percent--that middle 60 percent.
Roughly 30 percent of those families in the middle class are going to
see a tax increase on their 2027 tax return, and that tax increase is
calculated at an average of $1,300 per family.
Let's look at the individual provisions to see how fair they are to
middle class families. First, right off the bat, they take away the
personal exemption which, on next year's tax return, the first year
that this new bill would be effective, is worth $4,150 per person in
your family. That is nearly $21,000 for a family like mine of five.
They take away $21,000 of deductions even from the poorest families
in America and from every middle class family as well. Now, they say
they are going to replace that with a child tax credit. But if your
children are over age 16, that credit is limited to a few hundred
dollars next year, and then they make it zero 5 years from now. So if
your kids are going to turn age 17 sometime in the next 5 years, they
have got your name on this bill.
They also do increase the standard deduction. But tens of millions of
Americans don't even take the standard deduction. They choose to
itemize their deduction.
So one replacement is inapplicable in a few years to kids of a few
years old, and the other is inapplicable to the millions of families
that don't itemize their deductions. But even if it is applicable to
you, you are losing for a family of five $2,100 roughly. What about a
family of six, a family of seven, a family of eight? Another $4,150 per
child, and they replace it with an increase in the standard deduction
of $1,200 and a per-child credit of $600 or $300 or absolutely zero if
your kids are over age 16 and it is a few years from now.
Next, let's talk about moving expenses. The current code says that if
you are working at a factory, it closes down, and it is moving 100
miles, 300 miles away, and you have to move your home, if you have to
find a new home to live in, you get to deduct your moving expense. They
take that away. But what do they leave? If you own a factory, you shut
it down, and you move it to China, then all of the moving expenses are
tax deductible.
{time} 1330
Don't let them tell you they are taking away the moving expense
deduction. Sure, they are taking it away from individuals and
employees, but they are leaving the moving tax deduction for those who
are moving their factories to China.
Of course, they take away the student loan debt interest deduction.
If you are investing in yourself, in a family member, or in education,
the interest deduction is wiped off your tax return. But if you are
investing in a Chinese factory, the deductions are there for you. They
are not anti-investment. They are just anti-investment in the skills
and capacity of American workers.
Next is the medical deduction. There is a deduction for medical
expenses. It is available only to a few families with particularly
large medical needs. You don't get the medical deduction unless your
un-reimbursed medical expenses--thanks to the Affordable Care Act, most
people have at least decent insurance. You still have some medical
expenses that are out-of-pocket, but if your out-of-pocket medical
expenses exceed 10 percent of your income, then to the extent of that
excess, you can take a deduction.
If your out-of-pocket, uncovered medical expenses are 13 percent of
your income, you can deduct the 3 percent. That is not overly generous.
It is not even applicable to most families.
Who needs it?
People with disabilities, families with children with special needs,
and people with cancer and other severe diagnoses. That is who they
target.
They say: Well, if you make some money, and then you have to spend it
dealing with medical services, dealing with therapies for special needs
children, for disabled, for people with cancer. Well, just because you
don't have the money because you had to spend it on medical services
doesn't mean we can't tax you on the money. And they do.
Well, there is another group of people who are unlucky enough to have
extraordinary expenses, and that is casualty losses. If you have a
small fire or some small casualty, you are not going to get a
deduction. The deduction applies only when your casualty losses exceed
10 percent of your income, and then only to the extent that they exceed
10 percent of your income.
We have had the wildfires in my State of California, not to mention
the hurricanes in the Caribbean, and there are people who are going to
say: Well, thank God that if the disaster had to hit our community, it
hit us in 2017, because our casualty losses are deductible.
But what about the next disaster?
People with uninsured, out-of-pocket losses exceeding 10 percent of
their income will not get a deduction.
Here is the Republican response: Look, if it is an enormous disaster
that happens to take your house and the
[[Page H8692]]
CNN cameras are there, then your congressional delegation can come beg
for a special tax rule for those affected by that disaster.
Well, first, what if your home burns down and CNN isn't there? It is
not part of an enormous disaster? It is just something that hits you
and a couple of neighborhoods?
You will never get a special tax provision. We are not going to write
one for three or four people, or 30 or 40 people, or 80 or 90 people
affected by a small brush fire.
But what if you are part of the next enormous catastrophe?
Your congressional delegation will be here, having to decide whether
to bargain to give you a chance to take the same deduction that has
been in the Tax Code since the 1950s, or whether to bargain to try to
get disaster relief to rebuild the infrastructure and the public assets
in your community.
Your congressional delegation probably doesn't have enough clout to
do both. So which are they going to do?
It is clearly wrong and unfair to tax people on that portion of their
income that they have to use to deal with a truly extraordinary
casualty loss.
But there is another provision. This one hasn't been talked about
much. That is the way in which they index Tax Code provisions for
inflation.
There are some of the provisions they don't index at all. So they say
that you can take your property tax deduction and itemize it--only the
portion up to $10,000. Well, $10,000 sounds like a lot of money, but
they don't index it.
So what about 10 years from now? What about 20 years from now?
You say: Well, I won't be in my house 20 years from now.
Yes, but the person you sell your house to will be there. If they
say, ``My God, all the prices are higher, all the wages are higher, all
the taxes are higher,'' that $10,000 limit on property taxes means, ``I
can't deduct but half my property tax bill.'' That will be factored
into the price of your house.
As to the things affecting home ownership, no indexing. Everything
that looks big now gets smaller and smaller every year as a result of
inflation. Oh, by the way, this tax bill is going to cause more
inflation.
There are other provisions where they say they are keeping the
indexing, but they change from CPI indexing to chained CPI indexing.
What does that mean?
It is a system for indexing the brackets less than what would be if
just look at the Consumer Price Index.
You say: I am only going to be in the 25 percent bracket under this
bill. As I get raises to just compensate me for inflation, I will still
just be in the 25 percent.
No, you won't. If you are fortunate, your employer will adjust your
wages for real inflation, but the brackets are only going to increase
for chained CPI.
We take away the State and local tax deduction. First, this is a
departure, as other provisions are, from the concept that we should tax
people based on their ability to pay. If you make a certain salary
an 10 percent of it is taken out and used by your local and State
governments, then your ability to pay is the 90 percent of your salary
you get to keep.
But they don't want to tax you on what you keep after State and local
taxes. They want to tax you on the money that has already been spent on
taxes.
The effect of this is not just on the middle class families who are
going to lose a tax deduction on their return and be taxed unfairly. If
you read what is put out by the rightwing think tanks, they say: We
know why we are pushing this State and local tax elimination. Because
that will create a political atmosphere where States like California
and New York and New Jersey will slash the amount of money that they
spend on things like public safety and education.
We won't just be affecting the people who are not taking the tax
deduction. We will be turning to poorer families and lower middle class
families who depend upon public schools, and it will just cause a
political situation where less money is spent on local education.
So this doesn't just affect those who it affects on their tax return.
This affects everyone who lives in the community.
As I have alluded to before, they take away a big chunk of the home
mortgage deduction, particularly to the person you would sell your
house to later. If you sell your house--and God knows what the
inflation rate may be. It may be significant. It may be $500,000, which
doesn't sound like a whole lot of money then, even though it does sound
like a big chunk of money now. I remember when $50,000 for a home was
thought to be a very high price. Anyway, the home mortgage deduction is
limited for that buyer to $500,000 of mortgage. The property tax is
limited to $10,000 of property tax.
What effect is this going to have on the ability to sell your home,
which, in many parts of the country, is your whole nest egg?
People pay a big mortgage payment every month and they have equity in
their home. Maybe they can retire because they have got 20, 25 percent
equity in their home.
Well, yesterday, before the Financial Services Committee, we had Mark
Zandi testify, who is one of the leading economists in this country,
the head of the economics operation at Moody's Analytics. He said that
in major metropolitan areas, like the one I represent, we are going to
see a double-digit decline in home values as a result of this bill. A
lot of that is the limit on home mortgage deduction and the property
tax. There are other elements of this bill that also adversely affect
home prices. A double-digit decline.
Then what does that do to the community?
You may say: I don't own a home. I just work at a restaurant. I live
in an apartment.
Who is going to come to that restaurant and how big are they going to
tip if they have just gone to Zillow and seen the value of their home
and they have seen a double-digit decline?
The whole community.
This affects people from the New York metro area, the Philly metro
area, Los Angeles, San Diego, and Orange County in California.
You are sucking money out of the local economy and giving it to the
Federal Government by taking away the State and local property tax
deduction. You are then slashing the value of homes with a double-digit
decline.
What money is going to be in circulation to buy goods and services to
support the entire regional economy?
This is going to hit like a hurricane in areas of the country that
did not experience one.
My party is so focused on the great unfairness of this bill and the
fact that it provides the bulk of its benefits to the top 5 percent and
even the top 1 percent. That fact is hidden by the anomaly that most of
the economic projections of this bill don't even look at the repeal of
the estate tax. They only look at the income tax provisions. You can't
just exclude a whole chunk of this tax bill in analyzing it.
We, as a party, are so focused on the huge unfairness that we almost
don't want to talk about the effect it will have on the overall
national economy. This isn't just an unfair bill. That isn't just a
bill that enriches the rich. This is a deficit-exploding, outsource-
promoting, job-killing, growth-reducing disaster for our Nation's
economy.
You want to know the effect of huge tax cuts on an economy?
Look at Kansas. They slashed their taxes and now a Republican
legislature is reversing it because of what that has done to tax
receipts and to the Kansas economy.
Let's take a look and see what effect this is likely to have at the
national level. I turn to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities,
where they say that this tax cut is an ineffective way to spur economic
growth and is likely to harm the economy if it adds to the deficit.
Well, what is the plan in the budget Republicans all voted for?
To deliberately use this tax cut to increase the deficit by $1.5
trillion. But the Congressional Budget Office, under the Republican
administration of this House and of this Congress, says it is going to
do $1.7 trillion. They say: Well, let's look at it more dynamically.
If you look more dynamically, it is going to increase the deficit by
$2 trillion or $2.5 trillion, because it raises interest rates; it
encourages offshore initial investment, stripping economic growth out
of the United States, and for a host of reasons I will get to.
The more you look at the tax cut, the more apparent it is that it
will cut
[[Page H8693]]
economic growth and increase the deficit by even more than the $1.7
trillion that the Congressional Budget Office, during Republican
control of Congress, is currently estimating.
Why is this?
Well, first, because incentives to invest in the Tax Code have little
or no effect on privatization, according to a Congressional Research
Service report. The empirical evidence in numerous report shows that
the 2003 tax cuts had little impact on investment or employment.
{time} 1345
Now, I speak with a little bit of experience here because I lived 20
years of my life in the tax world, most of it right at the intersection
of investment and tax law.
I sat with families and charged them a large amount per hour to
describe what the latest tax law said and what effect it would have on
different investments. And my experience as a CPA and tax attorney and
certified tax law specialist by my State bar was identical to that of
Warren Buffett, who said:
I have worked with investors for 60 years, and I have yet
to see anyone, not even when capital gains rates were 39.9
percent or when they were 15 percent, as they are now, I have
never seen anyone shy away from a sensible investment because
of the tax rate on the potential gain. People invest to make
money, and potential taxes have never scared them off.
Now, that is why, when you look at the effect of this bill, you come
to the conclusion, as the Congressional Budget Office did in looking at
the Bush tax cuts and whether to extend them or allow them to expire,
that, if you have taxes and you use that money to pay the deficit, that
does more to help the economy. It is more important to fight the
deficit than it is to tell various families, often at the very high
end, that they get a tax cut.
Well, let's look at American economic history. I designed this chart
here, and I focused it only after the 1986 tax cut for which Ronald
Reagan is famous. There were many things about our economy back in the
early 1980s, in the 1970s, and in the 1960s that aren't relevant today.
We didn't have the trade policies back in the 1970s that we have today.
So we look at the Ronald Reagan 1986 tax policy as slightly adjusted
by George H.W. Bush. We look at the policies that we had--I know the
1986 tax law. You think, well, that must have affected 1986. No, it
really became effective in 1988. So you look at 1988 to 1993 and you
see that we have economic growth of 2.67 percent.
Then, in 1994, you see the effect of the Clinton tax policies adopted
in 1993, and we see economic growth of well over 4 percent. And these
figures here are real economic growth per year adjusted for inflation,
4.4 percent.
So then George W. Bush gets elected, and starting in 2001, his tax
policies are adopted by this Congress and enacted into law, and we see
that economic growth is only 1.7 percent.
Now, those Bush tax policies continued in force until 2013 because
Democrats allowed them to stay in force until we finally adopted Obama
tax policies, effective in 2013. Those policies continue to be in force
right up to today.
The most recent statistics we have are up through September 30 of
this year. The economic growth under those policies has been 2.22
percent.
So what we have seen here is that, when we adopt Republican economic
policies and they become effective, we have substantially lower
economic growth than when we adopt Democratic tax policies and when
Democrats actually pass those policies and have the guts to pass those
policies and put them into law.
So you have got to admire the Republican Party. They are able to get
Member after Member after Member to say, without any proof, that
trickle-down economics works, that if you just cut taxes, you somehow
help the economy.
It doesn't matter if you can line up 100 Members to say the same
falsehood at the same lectern in the same congressional Hall on the
same House floor. What matters is the real history. And the real
history is that the higher rates imposed under Democratic
administrations have not just led to higher tax revenues, they have led
to higher rates of economic growth.
Well, why is this?
Well, first, and perhaps most important, is having money available
for business investment. There is a pool of savings capital available
in our markets and in our economy, and the Republican proposal would
come in and scoop $1.2 trillion of that--take it out of the markets,
take it out of the banks where it could be lent to small businesses,
take it out of the bond markets where it can be used for expansions by
big business--and just use it to pay for the tax cuts.
No wonder tax cuts that increase deficits hurt business investment
and hurt the economy.
But there is more. We then add to our national debt, and the national
debt is forever. Not only do we have the increase in the debt of $1.5
trillion to $1.7 trillion, but that debt will be here not just 10 years
from now; it is there forever. Your great-grandchildren are going to be
paying interest on that debt.
Then we have the international impact. You see, their proposal
provides for a zero percent U.S. tax on any money made by any factory
as long as you move that factory abroad. If the wage rates are too high
in China, you can put it in Vietnam.
Now, in addition to saying you move your factory abroad, you pay zero
tax on all the manufacturing profits because that manufacturing is
being done abroad, we encourage moving the factory abroad. The work is
being done abroad. We don't tax it.
But in addition, what is an area of economic activity where Americans
excel? It is the creation of intellectual property.
Well, manufacturing might be done abroad; the design, the patents,
the copyrights, the trade names, the marketing plans, the trade
secrets, the intellectual property is created here. Under this bill,
not only the profit you make on the foreign factory, but the profit you
make from all that intellectual property can pay almost a zero percent
American tax if you just take that patent and put it in a file in the
Cayman Islands.
Now, I don't want to say that our current system for taxing
international transactions is anything that we can be proud of. The
present system, if you make money in a U.S. factory, there is a tax of
35 percent; you make it in a foreign factory, we also have a tax of 35
percent, but you can defer it. So, right now, if you are just trying to
decide where to put the factory, you have got a tax in the United
States that you actually have to pay and a tax on a factory abroad that
you will pay eventually.
Well, what do they do? That take that 35 percent ``eventually'' tax
and turn it into a zero percent ``forever'' tax. How much more
incentive could they provide to move American factories overseas?
Now, the present system also has a problem in that you can defer tax
only on the money you keep offshore. So their solution is to say, well,
bring it onshore. We will provide a little tiny tax on it, and then all
the money you made overseas the last 10 or 20 years, no U.S. tax, and
at least the money gets repatriated.
Democrats are anxious to work with Republicans on repatriation. They
could probably get a more Republican plan adopted than one that I would
endorse in this speech, but why not tax the unrepatriated money? That
way we would be saying, bring that money back or don't bring it back,
you pay the same tax, so you might as well bring it back.
What we can also do is move to worldwide unitary apportionment:
eliminate all the tax gains, and most of them are international;
eliminate all the reasons to move factories abroad and generate another
$1 trillion every 10 years for our Treasury. That is the system that we
ought to be moving to.
I am not here to say our present system is wonderful. I am here to
say that we should not adopt a Republican system because it moves us
even further away from what would be a fair system that would not
encourage offshoring.
Another way in which we are affected internationally is that this tax
bill would change currency values, change the exchange rate between the
euro, the yen, the Chinese currency, and other currencies around the
world in a way that will encourage Americans to import and discourage
those abroad from buying our products--just another economic harm.
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Another economic harm is touted by the conservative supporters of
this policy. They say that by cutting taxes, we will get the Federal
Government and State and local governments to spend less money on
infrastructure and education. Well, if you want to ask what is it that
makes a country wealthier than others, it is, first and foremost, the
education of its workers, and then, second, the infrastructure that is
available to productive activity.
In addition, as I mentioned before, they are going to cut the value
of homes nationwide, most pronounced in the major metropolitan areas.
What does that do to middle class spending, which drives our economy?
It drives that middle class spending down. Who is going to go out to a
restaurant if you have just been told that you have had a double-digit
decline in the value of your home?
This bill will also cause higher interest rates because the Federal
Government is going to be borrowing another $1.5 trillion to $1.7
trillion.
Now, so there is a difference between me and my party leadership.
They say that the main reason to vote against this bill is that it is
unfair by giving huge tax breaks to the top 1 percent and increasing
taxes for millions of American families. I say you should vote against
this bill because it is a deficit-exploding, outsourcing-promoting,
job-killing, economic growth-depressing bill. But I think we will
agree, whether you vote against this bill because it is unfair or you
vote against this bill because it is bad for our economy, you will be
performing an important service to our country.
Let me not neglect the fact that if you vote--that the bill isn't
totally without being useful to somebody. It will reduce taxes for the
Donald Trump family by over $1 billion in estate tax and tens of
millions of dollars in income tax.
Maybe that is not enough for you. Look at what it will do for the
Koch brothers--far more than it will do for the Trump family. So if
that is important to you, if that is the result you want to achieve,
then vote for the bill.
Mr. Speaker, I yield back the balance of my time.
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