[Congressional Record Volume 161, Number 139 (Friday, September 25, 2015)]
[Senate]
[Pages S6952-S6954]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
UNITED STATES-CHINA RELATIONS
Mr. SULLIVAN. Mr. President, I rise this afternoon to say a few words
about a critical challenge and opportunity facing the United States.
For months many of us have been on the floor debating some of the
important foreign policy and national security issues that our Nation
faces--whether it is Islamic terrorism, ISIS, the President's flawed
and dangerous Iran agreement or a resurgent Russia in Europe and the
Arctic. The list of these issues is long, and it is growing. But one
issue that has not really gotten much attention--I believe the
attention that it deserves--and that I would like to speak about this
afternoon is the long-term national security and foreign policy
consequences of the rise of China.
China's President Xi Jinping is in town right now. He is visiting
America. He is going to meet with President Obama on a state visit, and
some of us in Congress will have an opportunity to meet with him later
today. It is an opportunity to start seriously thinking about the
challenges and opportunities that a rising China presents to the world
and to the United States.
Perhaps we are not talking about this issue as much as we should on
the floor because it doesn't seem to be an immediate issue. It is a bit
of a longer term matter. But it is also something that in historical
terms is happening so fast. I will give one statistic.
In 1980 China's economy was smaller than that of the Netherlands.
Last year, just the incremental growth of China's economy was as large
as the Netherlands' economy. They have had incredible growth. But some
of our country's most deep and strategic thinkers and historians agree
that the rise of China is--over the next decade or two--the paramount
issue for us to focus on in the United States.
As far back as 2005, 10 years ago almost to the day, then-Deputy
Secretary of State Bob Zellick, who went on to be the president of the
World Bank and a former U.S. Trade Representative for the United
States, a very strategic thinker, gave what was called the
``responsible stakeholders'' speech, a very well-renowned speech that
people are still reading on U.S.-China relations.
In that speech 10 years ago, he said: ``How the United States deals
with China's rising power is a central question in American foreign
policy.''
Just a few months ago in testimony before the Armed Services
Committee, Harvard Professor Graham Allison gave testimony that in many
ways is reflected in an article he just published in the Atlantic
yesterday on the eve of the visit of the President of China. He states
in that article and in his testimony from a couple of months ago:
The preeminent geostrategic challenge of this era is not
violent Islamic extremists, or a resurgent Russia. It is the
impact that China's ascendance will have on the U.S.-led
national order.
More specifically, Professor Allison writes that ``the defining
question about global order for this generation is whether China and
the United States can escape''--what he refers to as ``the Thucydides
trap.''
He is referencing the renowned ancient Greek historian.
Professor Allison coined this term to describe the strategic dilemma
and dangers that occur when a rising power rivals a ruling power, as
when--an example he gives in ancient Greece--Athens challenged Sparta
in ancient Greece which ultimately led to the Peloponnesian War.
Professor Allison has caught the attention of many, including
President Xi Jinping of China, who in a speech just a few days ago in
Seattle actually referenced this term--the ``Thucydides trap''--when
talking about U.S.-China relations. Now, both Professor Allison and
President Xi, in his speech, make it clear that conflict between the
United States and China is certainly not inevitable, regardless of what
he says with regard to the Thucydides trap, and I certainly would agree
with that. Professor Allison, however, does appear to draw some very
sobering conclusions in his recent article that should make all of us
take serious pause. He concludes in his article written yesterday:
``War between the U.S. and China is more likely than recognized at the
moment.'' These are his words, not mine. This is one of the most
distinguished professors of international relations in the United
States.
I think these words underscore the need for those of us in the Senate
to give due attention to the importance of the U.S.-China relationship
and the attendant risks of Graham Allison's Thucydides trap.
Fortunately, I believe we are well-positioned as an institution in
the Senate to do this. In the Federalist Papers, Madison talks about
one of the roles of the U.S. Senate with its Members having 6-year
terms to be able to ensure lasting relations between the United States
and other nations through the institution of the Senate. Perhaps more
than any other part of the Federal Government, this institution has the
opportunity to think strategically and act for the long-term interests
of our country.
Fortunately, we also have many experts, historians, professors, and
practitioners, whether it is people such as Bob Zoellick or Graham
Allison or Henry Kissinger or a new generation of scholars, such as
Mike Green at CSIS, who have been thinking about these issues--the
Asia-Pacific, the rise in China--for decades. Their articles, books,
and speeches are critical to devising national strategies to advance
America's interests in the region.
This is a long-term endeavor for all of us. It is imperative that it
remains on our radar screens through the
[[Page S6953]]
course of State visits, through the course of elections, through the
course of changing administrations. Contrary to what some say, we as a
country do have the capacity to think and act in our long-term
strategic interests as a government.
Our successful bipartisan strategy dealing with the Soviet Union,
started by Kennan's famous ``X'' telegram, which created the strategy
of containment over the course of decades, over the course of several
administrations and several different Congresses--it was a successful
long-term strategy for the United States.
From my perspective, as we look at this issue--the Asia-Pacific--its
importance--the rise of China--I think a few key touchstones are
important to remember. First, America is an Asia-Pacific power. My
State of Alaska is an Asia-Pacific State. The United States has strong
networks of alliances throughout the Asia-Pacific, and our country has
built the post-World War II architecture that has enabled this dynamic
region of the world to thrive in terms of peace and in terms of
prosperity. In fact, when we look at the last 70 years of history in
that region, we have been the linchpin of that peace and prosperity for
all countries in the region, whether our strongest allies such as Japan
and Korea and Australia or other countries--countries even like China--
and we have earned the trust of our allies for our commitment. So we
need to maintain that trust as we move forward and we need to listen to
our allies in the region.
Second, we need to understand the history of the region and our
involvement there better as we think through what the strategy is
moving forward. I have had the opportunity to go to the National
Archives a number of times already since I joined the Senate, and there
is a statue outside the National Archives and it has a command on it.
It says simply: ``Study the past.'' Study the past. Again, I think that
as we are looking at our strategy in that region, it is critical that
we need to be doing that. Professor Allison's article, as well as
books, is a good start, and I think all of us need to continue that
focus.
Third, no matter what strategy we end up using vis-a-vis China and
the Asia-Pacific region, we have to be strong again at home. My biggest
surprise as a new freshman Senator--my biggest surprise in this body is
how little we, or certainly for that matter the Obama administration,
talk about our economy, talk about the strength or the lack thereof of
our economy. Perhaps because the performance of our economy has been so
lackluster, we have even doubled down expectations.
They have this term now in Washington called ``the new normal.''
American growth rates have typically been at 3, 3.5, 4 percent GDP
growth throughout most of our history. Over the last 6 years, we can
barely break 2 percent GDP growth; 1.5, 2 percent. Two quarters ago, we
went back into recession. They are now calling this the new normal and
we need to accept this. We rarely hear the President or even the
Treasury Secretary come out to the American people and say: No, we have
to grow traditional levels of American growth--3.5, 5 percent, 4
percent GDP growth. The Presiding Officer knows this. He has focused on
this issue. We are not doing that. We have to get back to strength at
home because a continued weak U.S. economy--the new normal--growing at
1.5 percent for the next 5, 10 years will create all kinds of
additional challenges for us and in my view will make the Thucydides
trap that Professor Allison talks about more likely for the United
States and China.
Yes, China has certain advantages, but in so many areas--in so many
areas--the United States holds all the cards--in so many different
areas. If we were in a global poker match and we were all at the
table--all the big countries--we would look at our hand and we would
see aces. Let me just name a few.
The high-tech sector, still the envy of the world; not just Silicon
Valley, all over America.
Our agriculture sector. We feed the world.
Universities. We have the best universities in the world, by far--by
far. Certain States in America have better top universities than all of
China.
Finance and commercial aspects of our economy, the best
entrepreneurs.
Energy. We have a renaissance in energy where we are now the largest
producer of oil and gas in the world and the largest producer of
renewables. This is a huge advantage. It is creating a rebirth of
manufacturing in America.
Fisheries. We harvest some of the most amazing seafood, more than
almost any other country in the world.
Foreign relations. We look at our allies in Asia, they are coming to
the United States in terms of wanting to deepen their relationship with
us.
And, of course, the U.S. military, the finest in the world right now.
It is right now. I had the opportunity to go down to the World War II
Memorial this morning and I saw a couple of Honor Flights coming in,
seeing those veterans of ours who fought and defended this great Nation
in World War II. We have had the best military for decades, and we are
going to continue to do that.
The key is we have to unleash our economic might once again, which
has been so dormant during the Obama administration. We have to do
this. If we do this, we can view the rise of China from a standpoint of
strength, confidence, and opportunity, not trepidation.
As Bob Zoellick mentioned 10 years ago in his ``Responsible
Stakeholders'' speech: ``You hear voices that perceive China solely
through the lens of fear, but America succeeds when we look to the
future as an opportunity, not when we fear what the future might
bring.''
I have had the opportunity to view the U.S.-China relationship from a
variety of lenses, including economic, diplomatic, and even to some
degree military. I previously served as the commissioner of natural
resources and energy in Alaska and was able to take a trip over there
with some Alaskans to look at ways to deepen our economic, trade, and
energy relationship between my State and China and have them visit
Alaska and participate in those meetings. I served in terms of
diplomacy as an assistant secretary of state and have had numerous
opportunities to travel to China with some of our top U.S. Government
leaders--at the time Bob Zoellick, Secretary of the Treasury Paulson,
and Secretary of State Rice--to discuss ways in which to deepen
economic relationships and work on the U.S.-China relationship.
Even many years ago as a U.S. marine aboard an amphibious assault
ship in the East and South China Sea during the third Taiwan Strait
crisis, I was a very, very, very small player in an episode that once
again demonstrated American resolve and commitment in the region.
There is a long tradition from Alaska Senators in keeping a focus on
the importance of the Asia-Pacific, from both the Alaska and the U.S.
perspective.
Former Senator Ted Stevens served in World War II as a Flying Tiger,
flying the Hump in that part of the world, and his subsequent focus
throughout his career was very much on the Asia-Pacific, as was Frank
Murkowski's expertise and experience, particularly with regard to our
relationship with Taiwan.
The focus on the Asia-Pacific and the rise of China is certainly one
that in many ways we can view as an opportunity, certainly in my State.
Last year, China became the No. 1 export market for Alaskan goods: $1.4
billion of goods exported from Alaska to China--an 18-percent increase.
So I believe maintaining this focus--and we have this visit today with
the President of China--is critically important not only to my State,
not only to our country but also to our allies in the region.
We should all try to put more focus and our best thinking on these
critical foreign policy and national security issues which, although
they are not always on the front page of the papers, I believe are some
of the most important long-term strategic challenges and opportunities
we face in this country.
Mr. President, I yield the floor.
I suggest the absence of a quorum.
The PRESIDING OFFICER (Mr. Perdue). The clerk will call the roll.
The legislative clerk proceeded to call the roll.
Mr. GARDNER. Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that the order
for the quorum call be rescinded.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. Without objection, it is so ordered.
[[Page S6954]]
____________________