[Congressional Record Volume 161, Number 128 (Tuesday, September 8, 2015)]
[House]
[Pages H5815-H5818]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
The SPEAKER pro tempore. Under the Speaker's announced policy of
January 6, 2015, the gentleman from California (Mr. Garamendi) is
recognized for 60 minutes as the designee of the minority leader.
Mr. GARAMENDI. Mr. Speaker, I want to thank our Republican colleagues
for reminding us that this Nation is dependent upon those men and
[[Page H5816]]
women that serve as police officers, as deputy sheriffs, and in other
positions.
Certainly, the deaths that we have seen and the murders that we have
seen in recent days are a tragedy, and they cannot go without our
notice. I appreciate it.
I don't, however, think it is the President's fault, so let us move
on here.
I want to talk about something that is coming up here in the next
couple of days, an extremely important issue for all of us. While
violence in America and violence against police officers are important
issues, this issue is also extremely important.
The Congress of the United States is going to take up the issue of
the Iran deal, the nuclear deal between the P5+1--China, Russia,
Germany, France, United Kingdom, and the United States--negotiated over
the course of 2-plus years an agreement with Iran that would block
Iran's ability to create a nuclear weapon.
Prior to this agreement, the Iranian Government, in secret, was
rapidly moving towards the development of a nuclear weapon. They had
created an infrastructure that included the various centrifuges to
concentrate the uranium into low-enriched uranium and then on into
highly enriched uranium, which is the uranium that is necessary for a
nuclear weapon.
They are also in the process of building a heavy water reactor that
would be capable of producing plutonium, the other route to a nuclear
weapon. This was done in secret over many years, dating back probably
15, maybe even 20 years.
For the last 10 years, the United States has placed sanctions on Iran
to try to convince them that they should not be developing a nuclear
weapon, that there would be significant economic sanctions and other
sanctions imposed on the country.
Those sanctions did not go successfully. The Congress of the United
States added sanctions. I, together with many of my colleagues here, I
think almost unanimously on the floor of the House voted to impose
those ever harsher sanctions, but it didn't work until the P5+1 got
together.
Secretary Clinton at that time, 3 years ago, 4 years ago, worked with
those countries, persuading them to sit down at the table together with
the United States to see if it was possible to negotiate an agreement
with Iran that would prevent Iran from ever having a nuclear weapon.
This spring, the agreements began to come together, and in June, July,
the agreements were culminated.
I want to talk tonight about those agreements and what they mean to
the United States, to the Middle East, and to the world. The very short
way of saying this is that this agreement is the most recent and the
most significant nonnuclear proliferation agreement in the last decade,
maybe even longer.
Iran was very, very close to a nuclear weapon, so much so that it was
believed that they could have a nuclear weapon very soon. Perhaps in 3
to 5 months, they could have material for perhaps nine weapons and be
able to perfect those weapons into a bomb that could be delivered
through their missile systems or through some mechanism.
Where are we today? We are going to vote. As I understand, I think
there is a rule that just came across the desk a few moments ago that
would put us in line to vote up or down on the Iranian agreement, and I
understand that that vote will be taking place on Friday of this week--
a very, very significant moment in the history of nuclear proliferation
or nonproliferation.
Let's take a look at where we are. First, the agreement came about as
a result of six nations, the largest economies in the world, sitting
down and negotiating with Iran.
What did those countries think about the deal that they signed onto?
{time} 2030
This isn't just the United States. This deal was signed onto by the
United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, China, and the United States.
So, if the United States Congress--the House and the Senate--were to
trash this agreement, what do those countries think?
We don't have to guess what they think. They actually have said,
categorically, their position on the deal, and their position is clear.
We signed onto it, they said. We agreed to this deal, and here is what
we think if the United States Congress negates this deal.
Let's start with the French. Frederic Dore, the French Embassy Deputy
Chief of Mission, said this in meetings with the United States Senate--
and I understand that we will be meeting with the representatives of
these countries later this week.
The position of the French is: World powers have secured the best
deal possible with Iran.
The best deal possible.
All right. How about Germany?
The German Government's position is--as stated by Philipp Ackermann,
the Acting German Ambassador to the United States, before the U.S.
Senate and, again, in the Foreign Policy magazine, on August 6, 2015--
the prospect of the rejection of a deal makes us nervous. It would be a
nightmare for every European country if this deal is rejected.
Then there is the United Kingdom, again, in the Foreign Policy
magazine, on August 6, in words similar to this, or, perhaps, these
exact words were said to the U.S. Senate a couple of weeks ago:
If Congress rejects this good deal and the U.S. is forced to walk
away, Iran will be left with an unconstrained nuclear program with far
weaker monitoring arrangements than the current international consensus
on sanctions, and the current international consensus on sanctions
would unravel, and international unity and pressure on Iran would be
seriously undermined.
The P5+1 all signed onto the agreement, and all but the United States
has said categorically: Therefore, the agreement. They are not looking
to renegotiate, only the United States. So it is up to us, the Members
of Congress, to decide whether to stay with the agreement that was
negotiated by the United States Government and five other countries and
confirmed by the European Union and the United Nations.
So where do we go?
Let's assume for a moment that the Senate and the House reject the
deal. Will these countries come back to the negotiating table?
The information we have from the meeting with the United States
Senators--and all of these countries were there--was, no, they are not
going to go back to the negotiating table. I think I said ``all of
these countries.'' I don't think China and Russia were at that meeting.
Yet the word is that they are not going to go back to the negotiating
table, so we would have to negotiate by ourselves. Keep in mind that we
attempted to do that for many, many years without any success. It was
only when all of these countries got together that the sanctions really
hit Iran in such a way that they decided to come to the table and to
make the agreement which is now before the Congress.
Let's go about that deal. What is it? This is basically what it is
here.
The deal blocks for at least 15 years--and, quite possibly,
indefinitely into the future--Iran's ability to develop a nuclear
weapon.
I am going to come back to this timeline, but I want to go here
first.
So no deal. Without a deal. If the United States Congress this week
and next week vote to do away with the deal, then where are we?
Iran has sufficient low enriched uranium and the ability to further
enrich that uranium to highly enriched uranium--in other words, weapons
grade uranium--for approximately nine nuclear bombs. The number of
centrifuges that they presently have are some 19,000 centrifuges, and
that would be used to complete the enrichment process. Then the time to
produce a bomb's worth of material--highly enriched uranium--is a
couple of months, 2 or 3 months.
Presumably, under the present situation, with no deal, Iran would be
able to move forward, as they have been in the past, for the full
development of nuclear weapons within a matter of months. That is not a
good situation.
However, with a deal, where are we?
Iran's low enriched uranium and what amount of highly enriched
uranium they have would be significantly reduced to an amount that
would be insufficient to make even one nuclear
[[Page H5817]]
weapon, and there would be verification procedures to assure that they
would not be able to make any additional nuclear weapons. The number of
centrifuges that they would be able to have are old, antiquated, and
would be some 6,000-plus, and all four pathways to a nuclear bomb are
blocked. That is the choice we have. That is the choice we have.
Now, what does this mean over time?
Over time, for a long time--25 years or more--the implementation of
additional protocols, commitments to reprocess plutonium, and the
nonproliferation treaty obligations remain in place indefinitely into
the future--way beyond 25 years. So, as for the nonproliferation
treaty, they have upped it once more. They have agreed to it again.
Now, granted, they weren't paying attention to it in the past, but now
we have verification procedures.
Secondly, there would be continuous surveillance of uranium mines and
mills so that we know what they are doing. Are they mining uranium?
What are they doing with it? What are their mills doing? That would
continue for 25 years.
There would be continued surveillance of centrifuge production for 20
years. Now, you don't make highly enriched uranium in procedures other
than centrifuges unless you go to some very, very advanced procedures,
which we do not believe Iran can do, and those procedures that are
currently available to Iran and would be into the future are monitored
for 20 years.
The low enriched stockpile, which is several thousand kilograms,
would be reduced and capped at 300 kilograms, and there would be no
further enrichment for new highly enriched uranium beyond a very, very
small amount for research purposes; and the heavy water reactor that
could produce plutonium within a matter of a couple of years would be,
basically, decommissioned and be unable to produce plutonium, and that
would go for the next 15 years. In the short period of time, 10 years
to 15 years, these other procedures that prevent the operation of the
centrifuges would be in place.
This is how you block the path to nuclear weapons. All of these
procedures are in place. Scientists, physicists, generals, and others
have all looked at this and have all come to the conclusion that, hey,
this works. This will block Iran from developing a nuclear weapon for a
minimum of 15 years, probably 20 years, and assuming that we are able
to hold them to the agreement, 25 years and beyond. That is the
nonproliferation treaty.
Now, all of this, of course, is dependent upon verification. We don't
trust Iran. We don't need to trust Iran. In fact, we should go into
this not trusting Iran. Therefore, do we have sufficient verification
procedures in place to hold Iran to the deal?
The answer is yes.
The International Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA, is and has been for
decades the United Nations' watchdog for the nonproliferation treaty.
They have been in Iran in the past. They have observed cheating. They
have observed obfuscation. However, under the new agreement, the doors
are open to all of the facilities that are known to be involved in the
nuclear production and the nuclear bomb activities. There is an
additional procedure that, within 24 days, should there be an
indication of a site that is not now known to be involved in nuclear
activity, the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, would be
able to observe what is going on at that site. As for the other sites--
the secret sites of the past--we would have the IAEA observing,
monitoring, and verifying that the agreement is being held to its
standard.
We also have other methods of knowing what is going on in Iran.
Nuclear material leaves a radiation signature. We have the capability
of reading those signatures and understanding in detail what is going
on at any particular site--past, present, and into the future.
The verifications that are in this treaty are built upon the fact
that we do not trust Iran, and, therefore, these verification
procedures are the most robust, comprehensive, and extensive in any
proliferation treaty with Russia or anybody else. So that is in place.
Now, what if they do cheat?
If they do cheat and if they do not honor the agreement, we will
know. That is what the verification is all about. It is agreed by the
P5+1--that is the United Kingdom, which is Britain; France; Germany;
Russia; China; the U.N.; and the European Union--that should there be a
breach of the procedures in this deal that the sanctions--the toughest
of them--would automatically snap back into place and would continue to
apply the kind of economic-social pressure on Iran that brought them to
the negotiating table in the first place.
Can we trust these countries to snap back?
I believe we can. It is an agreement that they have made not just
with the United States but with each other.
Now, if they don't, we still have our own sanctions, which are tough,
which provide us with an ability to put a lot of pressure on Iran, even
though not as much as the other countries together with us could do;
but, nonetheless, those sanctions are always available to us now and on
into the future should Iran renege in any way on this deal.
There are a couple of other things about this that we need to
consider.
There is a lot of talk that this deal would free a vast amount of
money that Iran has had sequestered--having been known to get their
hands on a vast amount of money. The numbers bandied about are $150
billion. It has been said by the Treasury Department and by the
Secretary of State that the amount is actually closer to $100 billion.
That is a lot of money. There is great fear--and, I think,
appropriately--that Iran would use that money to advance, enhance, and
increase its support of terrorism around the world--specifically in the
Middle East--and against Israel.
{time} 2045
I suppose that is a possibility. But when an analysis is done of that
money, about $40 billion of that $100 billion is owed to other
countries and other entities outside of Iran.
So as soon as that sanction is removed and that money is available,
then $40 billion of the $100 billion is not available to Iran. It is in
some other country's hand.
The remaining money presumably could be used for support of terrorist
activities. However, we should keep in mind that Iran has been heavily
hit by the existing sanctions, so much so that their economy is in
terrible condition.
Their infrastructure, specifically in the oil arena, is woefully old,
inadequate, and not capable of significant production. So they are
going to need to invest a lot of money in that and in other
infrastructure.
How much money would be available for terrorism? Far more than we
would want. And, therefore, we need to be certain that our support for
those countries that are fighting the terrorist activity in the Middle
East and beyond have the full support of the United States Government,
people, and our Treasury.
It is going to cost us some money, but this is something we are going
to have to do. We must make certain that Israel has whatever it needs
to counter whatever terrorist threats there may be and whatever threats
there may be in the more conventional military sense.
Already we are preparing to ship to Israel our most advanced
fighters, the F-35, which is just now coming off our production lines,
and there will be a lot of other equipment made available.
Certainly, with regard to intelligence, surveillance, and
reconnaissance, we will continue to work with Israel very closely as we
have for many, many years, in fact, decades. All of that is there.
We also need to be aware that the other Gulf state countries and
other countries in the area that have been subject to Iranian attacks
and trouble need our support.
We should also be willing, as we have in the past and as we are
committed to now, to provide them with the support that they need to
push back not only on terrorism, but on overt Iranian military
activity.
So here we are. Deal? No deal? No deal. Is there a better deal?
Highly unlikely that the P5+1 will ever come back together again to
negotiate a better deal.
So we would probably almost certainly have to do it by ourselves. We
have already proved in the past, before the P5+1 went into existence,
that we were not successful alone negotiating a deal with Iran.
[[Page H5818]]
The sanctions by our country alone were insufficient. But, as a
global community, we were sufficient. And that is where the P5+1 comes
in. Listen carefully to what those countries are saying about a
renegotiation, ``not likely.''
So where are we? I believe we have to support this deal that was put
together by these six major countries, supported by the European Union
and the United Nations. This is the path that would block all paths to
a nuclear weapon that Iran might be able to pursue for at least the
next 15 years and beyond.
I ask my colleagues to look hard at this. Unfortunately, a lot of the
newspapers are portraying this as a partisan fight. I don't believe it
is. I know that many of my colleagues on the Democratic side and
certainly what appears to be most Republicans, if not all, are opposed
to the deal. I am certain many of them have their own reasons for that
opposition.
But I think, when you take a comprehensive look at this deal, when
you look at all of the elements, that is, what happens if there is no
deal and Iran can immediately restart its nuclear weapons program, you
go, ``Whoa. That is not a good thing.''
On the other hand, if this deal holds, then Iran will be prevented
from having a nuclear weapon for at least 15 years, quite probably 20
years.
Should they continue to honor the nonproliferation treaty, then it
would go on indefinitely. That is a good thing. And, therefore, I
support this negotiated deal and I ask my colleagues to do the same.
With that, Mr. Speaker, I have completed my time on the floor.
I notice that two of my colleagues are here to speak to the passing
of one of our Members of this House who served here for many, many
years.
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