[Congressional Record Volume 159, Number 124 (Thursday, September 19, 2013)]
[Senate]
[Pages S6617-S6618]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
FISCAL DISCIPLINE
Mr. CORNYN. Mr. President, earlier this week the Congressional Budget
Office released its latest long-term outlook. Of course, the CBO, as it
is known around here, is the authoritative guide to all things
involving the finances and the fiscal picture for the Federal
Government. That long-term outlook offered us a sobering reminder the
Federal Government cannot defy the laws of fiscal gravity forever. In
other words, as every American knows--every working family knows--your
output can't exceed your input forever. In other words, you can't spend
more money than you have coming in. Unless you are the Federal
Government, of course. But sooner or later we will have to reverse the
trend of debt accumulation before it destroys our economy, because our
current path is simply unsustainable.
The crazy thing about it is that everybody in Washington,
particularly the Congress, knows that. Yet it seems as though they are
in a state of denial about what could very well happen to our country
and to our future if we don't act. As I said, it is a very sobering
message, and it is also very different from the message President Obama
has been delivering lately. He likes to talk about America's short-term
budget deficit falling. To remind everybody, there is the debt and
there is the deficit. The deficit we measure on an annual basis. Debt
is the cumulative shortfall between what comes in the front door and
what goes out the back door. That debt is now about $17 trillion.
For these young people down here, that means they each owe about
$52,000 because my generation and other adults have not been
responsible, and we have shoved off onto the next generation the
responsibilities we ought to be meeting ourselves. So here is the
reality. Any short-term deficit reduction will be meaningless unless we
adopt longer term reforms. That means where the Federal Government
spends most of its money, which is in mandatory spending--the spending
that keeps Social Security and Medicare, among other programs, going.
We need to also bend the spending curve down so that we are spending
less money as well.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates, when we factor in the
likely impact of rising debt levels, the publicly held debt is on
course to reach 108 percent of our gross domestic product in 2038. The
gross domestic product is basically another way of saying the size of
our entire economy. So 108 percent of the size of our entire economy is
their projection, and that is before we include money the Federal
Government effectively owes itself.
I realize 2038 sounds like a long time from now. I remember as a kid
I thought the year 2000 was going to be a long way away, but we now see
that only in our rearview mirror. But by 2038, under current law, our
net interest payments, as a share of our economy, will be 2\1/2\ times
greater than the 40-year average.
Let me boil that down a little bit. When we borrow money--because we
are spending money we don't actually have--that adds to our annual
deficit. But it also, over time, adds to our national debt. We have to
get somebody to buy that debt so we can continue to spend money we
don't have, so that we can continue to spend borrowed money. We have to
pay interest to our creditors. In other words, they are going to expect
a rate of return, as anybody would, when they loan somebody money. When
China loans us money, it is not cost free. When they buy a huge portion
of our national debt, it is not cost free.
Over time we will see interest rates--which are really at historic
lows now because of the aggressive action of the Federal Reserve
keeping those interest rates low--go back up to historic norms, and
then we are going to see that a larger and larger share of what the
Federal Government spends is merely to pay China and our other
creditors who buy our debt, unless we
[[Page S6618]]
take aggressive measures to begin to bring our debt load down.
The President and the Democrats frequently demand more spending on
things such as research and development--that is a good thing--or
infrastructure--that is a good thing--yet they refuse to embrace the
serious reforms necessary that enable us to do so. Here again, when the
interest payments on the debt invariably go up, they will crowd out
spending on other priorities, such as research and development, such as
infrastructure, such as education, and others that should be among our
national priorities.
The Congressional Budget Office projects that by 2038 total spending
on everything other than major health care programs, Social Security,
and net interest payments would decline to 7 percent of gross domestic
product, and that is down from 11 percent, which is the average over
the last 40 years. That is the crowding-out effect I was mentioning a
moment ago. When we spend more and more money on these other programs,
it crowds out spending on other things necessary to keep our economy
growing and to keep people employed.
If we don't start reforming our biggest mandatory spending programs--
again, that is Social Security and Medicare--in a responsible way, it
will become much harder for the Federal Government to perform its most
basic obligations and it will leave these young people and others--such
as my daughters, who are in their early thirties--holding the bag, not
only with the debt I mentioned a moment ago, but also with broken
programs that are unsustainable, that will not be there for them when
they turn 65 or when they get older.
It is a law of nature that you cannot keep spending money you don't
have, and you can't keep racking up debt forever without any
consequences. The only question is whether the reforms I am talking
about will be gradual--will be phased in over time--or whether they
will be sudden and abrupt and disruptive. If we start now in a
responsible way, these reforms can be gradual.
Thank goodness, when Social Security was passed people didn't live to
be 80 years old, on average, and they weren't as productive as they are
today. That is a good thing. Modern medicine and nutrition have made it
possible for us to live longer, on average, and to be much more
productive. But we need to make sure we take into account, through
Medicare and Social Security, the fact that people are living longer
and are more productive. We need to make certain our programs are
modernized to keep up with those facts and make sure they are available
in the future, particularly among our most vulnerable citizens. If we
wait until America is on the verge of a debt crisis, the reforms will
have to be abrupt. In other words, when the bottom drops out, a lot of
people are going to be hurt, and it will be far more difficult to
protect the most vulnerable among us from the harshest sort of cuts.
What I am suggesting makes sense. Wouldn't we prefer to be in control
of a gradual reform of our mandatory spending programs that are phased
in over years, in ways most Americans will not actually feel because it
can be done gradually? To me, it makes sense to do that as opposed to
watching the bottom drop out or just simply kicking the can down the
road. You know, they say: If you kick the can down the road long
enough, pretty soon you are going to run out of road.
Let me again quote from the Congressional Budget Office. They said:
At some point, investors will begin to doubt the
government's willingness or ability to pay U.S. debt
obligations, making it more difficult or more expensive for
the government to borrow money. Moreover, even before that
point is reached, the high and rising amount of debt that CBO
projects under the extended baseline would have significant
negative consequences for both the economy and the Federal
budget.
Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent for 2 additional minutes.
The ACTING PRESIDENT pro tempore. Without objection, it is so
ordered.
Mr. CORNYN. Those negative consequences would include less private
investment; more Federal spending on interest, which I have talked
about briefly; less flexibility to address unexpected events, which you
know always seems to occur--such as 9/11 or a natural disaster--and
more risk of a full-blown debt crisis.
To the extent President Obama and our friends across the aisle
acknowledge our long-term debt problem, their main solution seems to be
always the same: Let's raise taxes some more. In fact, they are now
trying to use tax reform, which we thought should be revenue neutral,
as a vehicle for another $1 trillion tax increase. We are told that is
a condition of even talking about reforming our Tax Code, to make it
flatter, simpler, and more growth oriented. That is after the President
and his allies have already raised taxes by $1.7 trillion. So there is
never enough to feed the beast of the Federal Government here in
Washington. It is insatiable.
Meanwhile, to the extent the President acknowledges the need for
Medicare reform, his proposals always involve more price controls,
primarily on the providers. Yet price controls have not solved
Medicare's fundamental cost problems, and they won't solve it in the
future. They say: We can save money on Medicare. We will just whack the
payments we make to doctors and hospitals. I can tell you from talking
to the hospitals and doctors in Texas--who would like to see Medicare
patients but they can no longer afford to do so--that it is limiting
access to health care by just dealing with Medicare on this basis of
price controls and whacking payments to providers.
Amid the weakest economic recovery and the longest periods of high
unemployment since the Great Depression, the last thing we need is
another massive tax increase that would discourage work, savings, and
investment. We all know we cannot simply tax our way back into fiscal
stability, and we cannot spend our way back into economic prosperity.
If the President would merely accept those two realities, we might
finally get the kind of long-term reforms and the real long-term
spending cuts that might finally produce the economic recovery America
is desperately waiting for and desperately needs.
Mr. President, I yield the floor.
The ACTING PRESIDENT pro tempore. The Senator from Pennsylvania.
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