[Congressional Record Volume 158, Number 19 (Monday, February 6, 2012)]
[Senate]
[Pages S332-S333]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
THE ECONOMY
Mr. KYL. Mr. President, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a new
employment report last week for the month of January with some good
news: more jobs created in the private sector than had been projected
and unemployment dropped to 8.3 percent. President Obama has been
taking a victory lap and touted the jobs report as a sign that his
economic policies are working. But it reminds me of the two fleas on
the back of the chariot in Stephen Leacock's famous fable. They look
behind them and say: My, what a fine cloud of dust we've kicked up.
It could be in the 2\1/2\ years since the great recession technically
ended and the 3 years since the passage of the stimulus bill that the
President promised would keep unemployment below 8 percent, that
whatever recovery we have had is not necessarily the result of the
President's policies. Why has unemployment remained above 8 percent for
the last 35 months? Why are there more unemployed today than when
President Obama took office? Is it more likely that some people are
finding work in spite of and not because of President Obama's policies?
Today I would like to speak about that for a few minutes and try to
put these numbers into perspective. The obvious point, of course, is
that we still have a long way to go before anyone can claim that we
have an economic success story.
Let's start with the recovery itself. The fact is, this has been the
weakest recovery since the Great Depression. Consider this comparison:
31 months after the recession ended in June of 2009, payroll employment
has increased by only 1.5 percent. During the Reagan Presidency 31
months after the end of the 1981-1982 recession, payroll employment had
increased by 9.8 percent. So 1.5 under President Obama, 9.8 percent
comparable timeframe with President Reagan.
At a comparable point in time during the Reagan recovery, payroll
employment was 6.2 million jobs or 6.8 percent higher than the
prerecession level. In contrast, today we have about 5 million fewer
jobs since peak employment of 2007--not more but fewer--and more than
1.1 million jobs have been lost since President Obama took office.
How can that be? It takes a certain number of jobs just to keep up
with the new entrants into the labor market. In fact, economists
believe we need on average about 130,000 to 150,000 jobs per month just
to hold even. So even though we have created more jobs--and the
President's supporters say we have been creating now more jobs for the
last 23 months. That is fine, but if it does not keep up with the
number we need just to keep up with new entrants into the workforce;
namely, 130,000 to 150,000, we are not making progress. In fact, we are
regressing. If this recovery we are currently experiencing had
duplicated the path of recovery from the 1981-1982 recession, there
would be 14.9 million more payroll jobs than we have today--in other
words, almost 15 million more jobs. That is a better measure of the
success--or lack of it--in coming out of this recession.
Now, to make matters worse, much of the recent decline in the
unemployment rate can be attributed to a decline in labor force
participation--in other words, people who are still looking for work.
Labor force participation dropped to 63.7 percent in January, meaning
that many have simply stopped looking for jobs. This is the lowest
labor force participation rate in nearly three decades. Labor force
participation stood at 66 percent at the beginning of the recent
recession. If the rate had remained at the prerecession level, the
unemployment rate today would be approximately 11.4 percent. In other
words, 3 percentage points more than it is today is accounted for by
the fact that that many people have simply stopped looking for work.
According to many economists, this is a better measure of the true
employment situation in the country.
A commentator on one of the news shows that I heard yesterday gave
this analogy: If we heard that fewer elderly people in America were
sick, at least initially we would think that was really good news. But
if the reason there were fewer sick people is that more of them had
died, we wouldn't think that was a cause for celebration. And that is
the problem here--too many people have just decided it is not possible
for them to get a job and they are going to stop looking.
Finally, there is the underemployment and long-term unemployed
situation. The plight of the folks who have been unemployed for a long
period of time or those who are underemployed--they have a job but
could be getting something that pays more--has really not changed.
These are the Americans who want good jobs. In the latest report, the
number of those who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more has
hardly changed at 5.52 million people, accounting for almost 43 percent
of the unemployed population. Those are the folks who are really
hurting. The underemployment rate, which includes part-time workers who
would like to have full-time work and those who want to work but have
given up looking, has remained largely unchanged, dropping to 15.1
percent from 15.2 percent.
I say all of this not to pile on President Obama and certainly not to
denigrate the fact that we finally have a little bit of good news
coming out of the economic picture but, rather, to make the point that
the employment numbers from 1 month--last month--hardly tell the whole
story. We have to have better progrowth policies if we are really going
to have a stronger economy, if we are going to create more jobs and,
over the long term, improve the employment opportunities for all
Americans who want work.
It was very disappointing for the President to have rejected the
Keystone Pipeline. That is a project which would have created as many
as 343,000 private sector jobs, according to the Congressional Research
Service, and all of that without having cost the taxpayers a dime.
We also need to consider how the policies of the last 3 years, which
include the exploding debt and the massive new taxes and regulations
that are contained in ObamaCare and the so-called financial reform
bill, have put a drag on the economy. It has increased uncertainty for
job creators, and it has actually weakened the economic recovery. If
President Obama wants to continue any jobs momentum, I believe he ought
to reconsider his position on the tax hikes coming at the end of this
year. They are automatic. If we don't do anything, taxes will go up on
everyone next January 1st, the largest tax increase in the history of
our country, over $3.5 trillion. Will businesses want to expand and
hire new workers in the face of a tax increase that size over the next
10 years? Will they want to create
[[Page S333]]
jobs if they are faced with an avalanche of new regulations? Will they
be able to invest in growth if the government keeps crowding out
private investment with massive borrowing and spending?
The bottom line is that there is a recipe for turning the economy
around in a very strong way and providing the jobs people are going to
need in order to get the work they can do and need in order to support
their families. What the President has done has impeded and slowed down
that growth. Of course, one can argue that he didn't create the
problem, he inherited the problem, but that his policies have made it
worse, not better; that we would have a stronger recovery had we not
wasted that money on the stimulus program and had we not passed some of
the highly regulatory and depressing legislation such as ObamaCare.
With the opportunity before us to support progrowth policies, I am
convinced the private sector of this country is strong enough to
rebound. We are beginning to see that in these employment numbers. If
we work with businesses, understanding that they create the jobs, not
the government--all we can do is to provide the best foundation for job
creation--if we do that, then this eventually can be a strong economic
recovery, and then we really will have something to brag about. It is
my hope that in the remaining months of this year, before politics
completely consumes Washington, DC, Republicans and Democrats, the
House and the Senate, can work together with the President to create
that kind of climate in which all Americans who want to can find
economic opportunity and work.
I note the absence of a quorum.
The ACTING PRESIDENT pro tempore. The clerk will call the roll.
The legislative clerk proceeded to call the roll.
Mr. ROCKEFELLER. Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that the
order for the quorum call be rescinded.
The ACTING PRESIDENT pro tempore. Without objection, it is so
ordered.
____________________