[Congressional Record Volume 156, Number 73 (Friday, May 14, 2010)]
[Senate]
[Pages S3779-S3781]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
CONSIDERATION OF THE NEW START TREATY
Mr. SESSIONS. Mr. President, I rise today to address some very
important concerns that arise in my mind in the evaluation of the new
Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, START, that was submitted yesterday to
the Senate for advice and consent to ratification. I do not believe
that the Senate must ratify this treaty, as some of my colleagues
suggest. But, rather, I begin with the proposition that a new treaty
with Russia is not essential for our national security; may well be a
distraction from addressing the real threats of nuclear proliferation
by other nations and nuclear terrorism; and to the extent the President
puts forth this treaty as a step toward his idea of a world without
nuclear weapons, it is a naive and potentially risky strategic
approach.
Basically, the purpose of arms control is to reduce the risk of war
by enhancing strategic stability and security and, if possible, lessen
the costs of preparing for war. It is clear that the strategic balance
between the United States and Russia is, for the most part, stable,
while U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals are already on a downward
slope.
Both sides had made a commitment, under the 2002 Moscow Treaty, to
reduce deployed nuclear weapons to a range between 2,200 and 1,700
warheads, which was a significant reduction from the START I level of
6,000 warheads. Furthermore, the United States has no plans to increase
the size of its nuclear force, and it appears to most informed
observers that Russia, for economic reasons, was headed to even lower
levels. Quite simply, there is no responsible prospect of an expanding
nuclear weapons competition between our two nations. The United States
and Russian nuclear arsenals are not the real problem today.
Regrettably, the one category of nuclear weapons in which there is a
true imbalance--tactical nuclear weapons--is not addressed by the new
treaty.
I would agree with my colleagues, such as Senator Dick Lugar, that
the verification provisions under START I should not have been allowed
to expire with the treaty on December 5, but this could have been dealt
with through a simple 5-year extension as permitted by the START I
treaty. Instead, the administration was committed to a more ambitious
approach which it has found to be more challenging than expected, which
in turn has led to more U.S. concessions.
The President wanted to take a significant, tangible step toward his
vision of a more peaceful world without nuclear weapons--a vision I
find naive at best and, if achieved, likely to make the world less
safe. As nuclear strategist and Nobel laureate Thomas Schelling has
recently observed, a world without nuclear weapons would be one in
which countries would make plans to rearm in order to preempt other
countries from going nuclear first. Schelling writes: ``Every crisis
would be a nuclear crisis. The urge to preempt would dominate; whoever
gets the first few weapons will coerce or preempt. It would be a
nervous world.''
So far, at least, nuclear weapons have imposed restraint on world
powers--what will happen to that restraint in the absence of nuclear
weapons? What conclusions will the Russians and our allies draw from
this vision of nuclear disarmament? Will our allies and partners, who
have come to depend on U.S. nuclear security guarantees, pursue their
own nuclear arms? Will Russia, which is increasing its dependence on
nuclear weapons, interpret this as a sign of weakness and perhaps
pursue a more muscular foreign policy directed against the west?
Additionally, if we draw our weapon numbers too low, the perverse
result may be that smaller nations, or rogue states may believe they
could become peer competitors.
In addition to the dream of nuclear disarmament, the administration's
case for the new treaty rests on three
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principal arguments: No. 1, that it will improve U.S. and international
security by reducing U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces; No. 2,
that it will transform or ``reset'' relations with Russia, such that
Russia will now become a partner with the United States in addressing
the true nuclear dangers of proliferation and terrorism; and No. 3,
that it will provide the United States the moral credibility and
leadership needed to pursue its nonproliferation objectives with the
rest of the world.
First, the current declining stockpile of U.S. and Russian nuclear
weapons is not a factor contributing to international instability, and
reducing our current nuclear arsenal to the new START limit of 1,550
warheads will not have any impact on the nuclear or nonproliferation
policies of the rest of the world. If reducing U.S. deployed nuclear
forces from Cold War highs of over 10,000 nuclear warheads to the
current level of some 2,000 has had no impact, why should the reduction
of another 500 warheads make a difference?
States decide whether to acquire nuclear capabilities not because the
United States and Russia have large nuclear arsenals but because those
states believe nuclear weapons will enhance their national security,
preserve their regimes, enhance their prestige, or further their
ambitions. Likewise, states will determine whether to support U.S.
nonproliferation efforts on the basis of their national interests, not
on how low Russian and American nuclear stockpiles go.
As to the claim that a new START treaty with the Russians will
improve relations or secure Russia's assistance in addressing other
threats to international stability, there is little evidence to suggest
this is the case. To the contrary, these negotiations have provided the
Russians leverage over missile defense, prompt global strike, and
verification issues that have marred the final agreement.
Finally, I don't see any significant cooperation from Russia in
securing meaningful sanctions against Iran. To be sure, if we had any
expectation that the new START treaty would secure Russian assistance
in dealing with Iran, we should have drawn a more explicit linkage
between the two. In other words: no new START treaty without concrete
Russian assistance in obtaining a United Nations Security Council
resolution imposing real, crippling sanctions on Iran. This may have
been a missed opportunity.
Thus far, my remarks suggest I don't see decisive reasons to vote for
the new START treaty--but are there reasons to vote against the treaty?
The ratification process can help us examine several concerns.
As I evaluate the treaty, I will take a broad view that examines not
only the implications for U.S. strategic nuclear forces but how this
treaty impacts our relationship with allies and other military
capabilities important to our national security. I will want to know
whether this treaty disadvantages the United States in any way or makes
us less safe or constrains our ability to extend nuclear security
guarantees to our allies.
Finally, my decision whether to support this treaty will depend on
the administration's firm commitment to a serious nuclear modernization
effort for our weapons, nuclear laboratories, and delivery systems--for
as we go to lower numbers of nuclear weapons, it becomes increasingly
important that those remaining weapons be safe, secure, and reliable.
The central consideration in evaluating this treaty is the impact the
proposed numerical limitations will have on U.S. nuclear forces and in
particular our ability to extend the nuclear umbrella to our allies and
partners.
The administration will have to provide additional details regarding
the number of ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers the United States will
field under the 700 strategic delivery system limitation--and how it
plans to modernize those forces.
Last year, we were told by Admiral Mullen and General Cartwright that
reductions below 800 delivery systems may be cause for some concern,
while former Secretary James Schlesinger, in testifying on the new
START treaty before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, recently
noted that the ``numbers specified are adequate, though barely so.''
We need to understand, therefore, the implications of this
limitation, which requires a reduction of about 180 in the number of
currently deployed U.S. delivery systems. In fact, the reduction in
nuclear capability will be larger for the United States since the
treaty requires that conventionally-armed--nonnuclear--ballistic
missiles, in the case of prompt global strike, be counted against the
700 total.
Likewise, we need to understand how the Russians might configure
their nuclear forces under the treaty and then conduct a net assessment
to appreciate the true implications of the new START treaty for U.S.
national security.
Perhaps the greatest deficiency of the new START agreement is that it
does not address the 10-to-1 disparity between Russia and the United
States in the area of tactical nuclear weapons. As Secretary
Schlesinger recently testified, ``the significance of tactical nuclear
weapons rises steadily as strategic nuclear arms are reduced.''
Russia simply refused to allow these into the negotiations. So the
administration has left this for the ``next agreement,'' though I am
not sure what leverage the United States will have over a Russia that
has become more, not less, dependent on its tactical nuclear weapons.
An irony of this is that Russian tactical nuclear weapons, because
they are more widely dispersed and greater in number, pose a greater
risk of contributing to nuclear proliferation and terrorism which,
according to the administration, this treaty is supposed to help us
avert.
The Strategic Posture Commission estimates Russia may have
approximately 3,800 operational tactical nuclear warheads and that the
combination of new warhead designs and precision delivery systems
``open up new possibilities for Russian efforts to threaten to use
nuclear weapons to influence regional conflicts.''
Likewise, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Michele Flournoy has
observed that the Russians are ``actually increasing their reliance on
nuclear weapons and the role of nuclear weapons in their strategy.''
What if you are one of the 31 countries dependent on the United
States for nuclear security guarantees? How would you interpret the
fact that the United States is going down to 1,550 strategic warheads
while the Russians maintain at least twice that number of shorter range
nuclear warheads that in most cases are able to reach your country?
What impact will this have on the credibility of U.S. nuclear
guarantees and upon the incentives other countries may have to acquire
their own nuclear capabilities?
One final point on this issue: It disturbs me that Russian tactical
nuclear weapons were not addressed in this treaty, yet the United
States conceded to Russian demands to place limits on conventional
prompt global strike capabilities by counting conventional ICBMs under
the limits for delivery systems.
It is striking, moreover, that the preamble would be ``mindful of the
impact of conventionally armed ICBMs and SLBMs on strategic
stability,'' yet be silent on the impact of tactical nuclear weapons on
this very same strategic stability. What is more destabilizing:
conventionally armed ICBMs or thousands of tactical nuclear weapons?
Despite being told consistently from the very beginning of
negotiations that missile defense will be addressed only in the
preamble of the treaty, we now discover that article V contains a
direct restriction on U.S. missile defense activities (i.e., cannot
convert ICBM or SLBM launchers into launchers for missile defense
interceptors). Will this establish a dangerous precedent with respect
to including missile defense limitations in future offensive arms
control agreements? Why did the U.S. side feel it necessary to concede
this point?
What raises concern, with respect to article V, are other efforts by
the Russians to create a linkage between U.S. missile defense
activities and Russian adherence to the new START treaty. When viewed
together, the treaty's preamble, the Russian unilateral statement on
missile defense, and remarks by senior Russian officials provide the
potential for Russia to threaten or blackmail the United States against
increasing its missile defense capabilities by threatening to withdraw
from the treaty:
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When the preamble states that ``current strategic defensive arms do
not undermine the viability and effectiveness of the strategic
offensive arms of the parties,'' does this not suggest that moving
beyond ``current'' systems could provide grounds for withdrawal?
When the Russian's note in their unilateral statement that the treaty
can operate and be viable only if the United States of America refrains
from developing its missile defense capabilities quantitatively or
qualitatively, and then links American missile defense capabilities to
the treaty's withdrawal clause, should we not read this as an attempt
to exert political pressure to forestall continued development and
deployment of U.S. missile defenses?
Finally, what are we to make of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's
warning on March 28 that ``the treaty and all the obligations it
contains are valid only within the context of the levels which are now
present in the sphere of strategic defensive systems''? Does this mean
the Russians will pull out of START if we deploy additional ground-
based interceptors in Alaska or if we deploy the SM-3 block IIB missile
in Europe?
Despite the administration's assurances that none of this is legally
binding, and that the U.S. unilateral statement counters this by
expressing our intent to continue to deploy missile defenses, I can not
help but worry that these provisions will have a negative impact on
U.S. decisionmaking with respect to missile defense. After all, the
administration did abandon plans to deploy ground-based interceptors in
Europe--an action most believe was an irritant in United States-Russian
relations.
There is something fundamentally disturbing about entering into a
treaty with the Russians when we have such a divergence in view over a
substantial issue like missile defense. To be sure, the Russian side
has already expressed displeasure with U.S. plans to deploy missile
defenses in Europe and to enhance the capability of the SM-3 missile to
intercept long-range missiles launched from the Middle East.
Adding to my apprehension is recent testimony before the House Armed
Services Committee by a senior Department of Defense official, who
stated that the United States has not yet even approached the Russians
to determine whether the SM-3 IIB is, will cause them to withdraw from
the treaty. They can withdraw for any reason.
This likely sets the stage for misunderstanding and confrontation as
the United States continues its missile defense activities,
particularly in Europe.
Clarifying this ambiguity, coupled with affirmation by the
administration that it intends to improve the defense of our homeland
and go forward with all phases of its planned missile defense
deployments in Europe, is a prerequisite for ratification of the new
START treaty.
Our ability to verify Russian compliance with the new agreement is
also important. One could even argue that as we go to lower levels of
nuclear weapons, verification becomes more important, as the
consequences of cheating become more profound. But the standard should
not be whether we can verify Russian compliance with the terms of the
treaty per se--though this is important--but whether we maintain
sufficient confidence in our national ability to monitor developments
in Russian strategic forces that, if gone undetected, could alter the
strategic balance.
So when the administration argues that ``verification procedures in
this Treaty will be simpler and less costly to implement than the old
START treaty,'' I am inclined to ask why verification procedures have
become less stringent and whether such procedures make it harder for
the United States to fully account for Russian strategic forces.
Specifically:
Will we be able to determine whether the Russians are developing new,
more powerful missiles capable of carrying multiple warheads?
Are the Russians capable of secretly producing and storing missiles
and warheads that could afford them a military advantage?
While we may have confidence in the number of missiles deployed by
Russia today, can we maintain this confidence over the life of the
treaty?
Ultimately, it falls upon our intelligence community to monitor
Russian strategic force developments. Thus it is important for the
Senate, as part of its advice and consent responsibilities, to review
carefully the National Intelligence Estimate on our ability to
effectively verify the treaty that normally accompanies arms control
agreements. I don't believe we have seen that document yet.
I have identified just a few important issues the Senate will
consider as we move forward, and it is likely there will be others as
we continue to examine the treaty text, protocol, and annexes.
Particularly troubling at this time is the disparity in tactical
nuclear weapons which are not addressed in this treaty, and the
constraints on missile defense and conventional prompt global strike in
a treaty intended only to limit offensive nuclear weapons. At the very
least this is a bad precedent, and I have no doubt Russia is attempting
to revive the ABM Treaty regime and forestall U.S. prompt global strike
capabilities.
This was a treaty that Russia needed more than the United States. Not
only were Russian strategic nuclear forces headed to lower numbers for
economic reasons, Russia wants an arms control agreement with the
United States. Such a binational agreement validates its superpower
status. The United States therefore had an opportunity to leverage
Russian desire for an agreement to obtain Russian cooperation on a host
of issues, starting with Iran. But the administration missed this
opportunity because it was so anxious to advance its vision of a world
without nuclear weapons that it failed to see how START could help
address the more immediate threat of nuclear proliferation.
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