[Congressional Record Volume 156, Number 17 (Thursday, February 4, 2010)]
[Senate]
[Page S477]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
BUDGET DEFICITS
Mr. KYL. Mr. President, I recommend to my colleagues a Robert Robb
column, published in the Arizona Republic, February 3, 2010.
In it, Robb points to the massive deficits in President Obama's
budget and argues that the administration has no grounds on which to
pass the blame.
He explains that the deficits President Obama recommends from 2011 on
are entirely his own, driven by vast new spending, and that they are
far higher than historical deficits.
Robb writes that, even though President Obama's budget projects that
the recession will be over by 2011, he proposes that Federal spending
continue at nearly 24 percent of gross domestic product through 2020,
far beyond the historical average of around 20.5 percent.
He also points out an enormous increase in the debt as a share of
GDP:
After the World War II debt was reduced, accumulated
federal debt never exceeded 50 percent of GDP until 2009,
when it reached 53 percent. Under Obama's recommendations it
would grow to 77 percent by 2020.
Robb recommends returning spending to its historical average as a
means of getting the deficit under control.
I ask unanimous consent to have this article be printed in the Record
and urge my colleagues to consider the facts and arguments contained in
it.
There being no objection, the material was ordered to be printed in
the Record, as follows:
[From the Arizona Republic, Feb. 3, 2010]
Obama Deficits Not Bush's Fault
(By Robert Robb, Columnist)
The Obama administration undoubtedly wants the budget
message to be all the good things it wants to do for the
American people, except those who make the mistake of earning
too much money.
There's a second stimulus, rechristened a jobs program.
Health care reform, repositioned as an attack on the
insurance industry's dirty deeds. New middle-class tax
breaks. More spending on education. Lots more spending on
infrastructure and clean energy.
The budget is intended to position the Democratic Party as
the friend of the middle-class. But the message is blotted
out by all the red ink.
Obama likes to depict himself as a deficit victim. He
inherited a huge deficit and a deep recession. Not his fault.
Certainly the Republicans during the Bush years were
fiscally irresponsible. But within historical bounds. The
deficits in Obama's budget are beyond historical bounds and
are his alone.
Even with Bush's tax cuts, federal revenues in 2007 were at
the average as a percentage of GDP, 18.5 percent, going back
to 1960. The deficit was just 1.2 percent of GDP,
historically on the low side. Accumulated federal debt was 36
percent of GDP.
Then the recession hit. From 2008 to 2009, federal spending
increased 18 percent. This was a budget year that straddled
the Bush and Obama presidencies. But the spending increase
was driven by anti-recession measures, predominately the Bush
stimulus and bailouts.
Obama supported these measures. In fact, his complaint
about the Bush stimulus was that it was too small.
This raises a question of political ontology: If Obama
agreed with Bush, is it still just Bush's fault?
The Bush tax cuts expire this year. Except for the legacy
costs of the Iraq war, Obama is free to recommend changing
anything Bush did. The deficits he recommends from 2011 on
are purely his own.
And they are massive, and driven by spending.
Obama purposes that the federal government spend over 25
percent of GDP in 2011, compared to a historical average of
around 20.5 percent. He justifies this as necessary to
continue to fight the recession.
Obama, however, projects that the recession will be fully
over in 2011 and robust growth under way. Yet he proposes
that federal spending continue to be nearly 24 percent of GDP
through 2020.
In other words, rather than wind down the additional
recession spending after recovery, Obama is proposing that it
simply become a new, higher base.
After the World War II debt was reduced, accumulated
federal debt never exceeded 50 percent of GDP until 2009,
when it reached 53 percent. Under Obama's recommendations it
would grow to 77 percent by 2020.
If Obama were to recommend a path to return spending to its
historical share of economic output, in 2020 the deficit
would be just $255 billion, about what the federal government
spends each year on large capital projects, and just 1
percent of GDP. In other words, not a problem. And federal
spending would have still increased by more than 4 percent a
year since 2008.
Instead, Obama recommends a 2020 deficit of over $1
trillion and a troubling 4.2 percent of GDP.
Rather than recommend deficit reducing measures himself,
Obama wants to turn the job over to a bipartisan commission.
Republicans suspect a rat, an attempt to get them to support
even larger tax increases than Obama is already proposing.
They are right. Under Obama's budget, revenues are already
projected to be 19.6 percent of GDP, much higher than the
historical average. Yet he still proposes trillion dollar
deficits.
The problem is spending. Obama wants to do too much of it.
____________________