[Congressional Record Volume 154, Number 13 (Monday, January 28, 2008)]
[Senate]
[Pages S374-S375]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
ECONOMIC STIMULUS
Mr. DORGAN. Mr. President, tonight we will hear from the President in
his annual State of the Union Address. I know the President is expected
to talk a great deal about the economy and the need for an economic
stimulus package. I wanted to talk for a moment about this because I
think it is important for us to understand what is happening to our
economy.
I know there are some who think the field of economics is some field
with precision and elegance and that we are dealing with the ship of
state. If we can find our way to the engine room and find all the knobs
and gauges and valves and levers and turn them the right way, such as
providing an investment credit and bonus depreciation, that somehow we
will get this ship of state moving again. Of course, that is not what
is at stake at all. There isn't an engine room with knobs and valves
and gauges. This is the field of economics, which I have said
previously is a lot like psychology pumped up with helium.
So we talk a lot about knowing what is going on. The fact is we are
going to now do a stimulus package because there is a notion that there
is a problem with the economy. Well, there is more than a problem,
there is a very serious problem with this economy. Take a look at the
stock market, which is a barometer of confidence--up and down similar
to a yo-yo--mostly down. The housing market has cratered, with
construction of new homes and apartments in 2007 down 25 percent from
the prior year. That is one of the giant job engines in our economy--
the housing market. The unemployment rate has jumped, with some 1.4
million workers without a job for 27 months or longer. The trade
deficit recently hit a 14-month high. Oil prices are still way up.
Retail sales are their worst in years. So we have a very serious
problem.
Now, the Federal Reserve Board took bold action last week and that is
unusual for the Federal Reserve Board. They all wear gray suits and
wire-rimmed glasses and seldom do anything that is very bold, but last
week they did. They cut interest rates by three-quarters of 1 percent.
So the expectation is that because the Fed is taking that action and
seems to be very concerned about the economy, that we should take a
look at our fiscal policy, so there is talk about a stimulus.
Frankly, I think a stimulus package is fine. I don't think it does
all that much. But the absence of doing something on the Senate side of
Congress would send the wrong signal. Psychologically, it is important
we work on a stimulus. We are talking about a stimulus that is probably
1 percent of our economy, so it is not exactly going to jump start the
American economy. In addition, if all we do is a stimulus package and
we continue to ignore the fundamentals, the things that are
structurally wrong in this economy, the things that have not just
caused the economy to be in some trouble but caused the American people
and people all around the world to look at us and say: You know
something, you are off track. You are not addressing the things that
matter, and this is unsustainable. If we don't do something to address
those things, we will not be addressing the basic problem of our
economy.
So let me talk about that. No. 1, a fiscal policy. A reckless fiscal
policy. I mean, in recent years, think of it. This administration
inherited a large budget surplus. Then we got hit with a recession, a
war in Afghanistan, a war in Iraq, a war on terrorism--and a whole
series of events--including Hurricane Katrina. Many of us said to the
President: Don't propose we spend surpluses that don't yet exist. Let
us be conservative. He said: Katy bar the door, let us have big tax
cuts and most of it for the wealthy, and he pushed it through Congress.
Now, I didn't push for it, he did, and we ran up a huge deficit
because of all these unexpected circumstances we were confronted with.
So now, in recent years, we have sent soldiers off to war, and the
President says to Congress: We are sending soldiers to go fight, but we
don't intend to pay for it. I want the Congress to provide emergency
spending in order to pay for that, and we will add it to the debt. Last
year, he asked Congress for $196 billion for the current fiscal year.
That is $16 billion a month, $4 billion a week, none of it paid for,
and all of it added to the debt. As if to say to the soldiers: You go
fight, and when you come home, we will have you and your kids pay the
bills. That is a fiscal policy that is completely off balance.
We are going to borrow about $600 billion this year. That is how much
will be added to the debt. I know that is not what they say the deficit
is. They say the deficit is lower because, among other things, they are
taking all the Social Security surplus from the trust funds and using
it to show a lower deficit. We are going to borrow about $600 billion a
year to sustain the budget policies of this administration. Add to that
a $700 billion to $800 billion a year trade deficit, $2 billion a day
every single day, and you are talking about a combined red ink in our
budget and trade policies of some $1.3 trillion. That is almost 10
percent of the American economy. Think of that. That is unsustainable.
Now, add to a reckless fiscal policy and a trade policy in which we
are hemorrhaging red ink and exporting American jobs, regulators who
were asleep on the job--people who came to Government but didn't want
to regulate--and the subprime loan scandal occurred right under their
noses. We all heard the advertisements. When you turned on the
television, you heard the ads. It couldn't have escaped the notice of
the regulators, surely. The ads said: Have you been bankrupt? Do you
have trouble getting credit? Have you been missing your house payments?
Come to us. We have a loan for you. We will give you a new home
mortgage. And so they did, with a teaser rate at 2 percent and
unbelievable circumstances.
Everybody was making lots of money. The brokers were making millions,
the mortgage banks were making a lot of money, and then they were
packing these mortgage loans, the good ones, with the bad ones, just
like they used to pack sausage with meat and
[[Page S375]]
sawdust. They would use the sawdust as filler back in the old days.
Well, during unregulated times, just like packing sawdust into
sausages, what these folks did is, they took good loans and bad loans,
packaged them up. They sliced them up, then they securitized them, and
sent them out, sold them, and everybody was happy and everybody was fat
and everybody was making a lot of money, until it all came home to
roost. A whole lot of folks could not make housing payments.
So what we found with the subprime loan scandal is 2.2 million
families with subprime loans will lose their homes to foreclosure; 7.2
million with subprime mortgages have an outstanding mortgage value of
$1.3 trillion. And when those interest rates reset, a whole lot of them
will not be able to pay the bills to keep their homes.
All of this happened under the nose of regulators who came to
Government not wanting to regulate. And it caused severe damage to our
country. Now, add to that a reckless fiscal policy, a trade deficit in
which we are hemorrhaging in red ink and shipping jobs overseas and a
scandal in the home mortgage industry that caused enormous damage to
our country, made a lot of folks rich in the short term, and victimized
a lot of others. Add to that the unbelievable speculation that is going
on in hedge funds, most all of it outside of the view of regulators.
Hedge funds are about $1.2 to $1.5 trillion in value; but that does
not describe their importance to the economy. They are heavily
leveraged. That $1.2 to $1.5 trillion of hedge funds is engaged in one-
half of all of the trades every day on the New York Stock Exchange.
They are engaged in, among other things, credit default swaps.
There is something called credit default swaps, derivatives, with
notional values of $43 trillion. There is so much unbelievable
speculation with dramatic amounts of leverage in hedge funds and
derivatives that it is scary. Nobody knows what is going on because it
is outside the view of regulators. That is the way they want to keep
it.
We will talk about stimulus; we will talk about short-term measures.
But if we do not deal with this issue of a fiscal policy that is way
off track, a trade policy that is an abject failure, regulators who
have no interest in regulating, scandals will develop and mature right
under their noses, this country is not going to recover. Our economy is
not going to thrive and grow. It is fine to do a stimulus package of 1
percent of GDP, I do not object to that. We will borrow the money from
China, likely, to do it; perhaps put some money in the hands of people
who will go to Wal-Mart and buy goods from China, for all I know.
But, psychologically, I think it is fine to create a fiscal policy
initiative that compliments what they are doing at the Fed with
monetary policy. But that will not solve the underlying problems in our
economy. We have deep abiding problems in fiscal policy, trade policy,
and regulatory failures.
This Congress and this President have a responsibility to address
them. Talking about stimulus, and just talking about stimulus, means we
have not addressed that which moves this ship of state forward in the
future, creating expansion opportunities and jobs and economic health.
The only way we do that is to stare truth in the eye and understand
what is causing the problems in the country and how to fix it.
There is an old saying on Wall Street I was told by a friend: You
cannot tell who is swimming naked until the tide goes out. Well, the
tide has gone out, and now we are going to see some sights that are not
very pretty. It has to do with speculation and a whole series of things
that we have to correct. And my hope is, starting this evening at the
State of the Union Address and following that, at last long last, we
might see a President and a Congress work together to face the truth
about fiscal policy, trade policy, and inept regulation that has put
this country in significant difficulty and trouble.
We need not have a future that manifests that trouble forever. If we
take bold action and courageous action to understand what is wrong and
what the menu of items are that we need to go to fix it, I think we can
have a much better and brighter economic future in this country. I want
to be a part of that work, and I know many of my colleagues do as well.
So let's hope the first step to do that begins this evening at the
joint session of the Congress at the State of the Union Address.
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