[Congressional Record Volume 153, Number 54 (Wednesday, March 28, 2007)]
[Senate]
[Pages S4059-S4061]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]

      By Mr. DURBIN (for himself, Mr. Hagel, and Mrs. Feinstein):
  S. 1018. A bill to address security risks posed by global climate 
change and for other purposes; to the Select Committee on Intelligence.
  Mr. DURBIN. Mr. President, today, Senator Hagel and I introduced the 
bipartisan Global Climate Change Security Oversight Act. We were joined 
by Senator Feinstein. Our bill states that the consequences of global 
climate change represent a clear and present danger to the security of 
the United States.
  For years, many of us have examined global warming as an 
environmental or economic issue. We also need to consider it as a 
security concern. Our bill begins this process by requiring a National 
Intelligence Estimate to assess the strategic challenges presented by 
the world's changing climate.
  The National Security Strategy of 2006 stated that the United States 
now faces new security challenges, including ``environmental 
destruction, whether caused by human behavior or cataclysmic mega-
disasters such as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, or tsunamis. 
Problems of this scope may overwhelm the capacity of local authorities 
to respond, and may even overtax national militaries, requiring a 
larger international response. These challenges are not traditional 
national security concerns, such as the conflict of arms or ideologies. 
But if left unaddressed they can threaten national security.''
  Global climate change represents one of the new environmental 
challenges outlined in the National Security Strategy that poses a 
threat to our national security. Failing to recognize and plan for the 
geopolitical challenges of global warming would represent a serious 
mistake.
  A National Intelligence Estimate is a comprehensive review of a 
potential security threat that combines, correlates and evaluates 
intelligence from all of the relevant U.S. intelligence agencies. 
Various intelligence agencies--the CIA, NSA, the Pentagon, FBI, etc. 
must pool data, share perspectives and work together to assemble an 
accurate picture of threats to U.S. security.
  Without an NIE, the various agencies may never have an opportunity to 
examine each other's data, and any differences or similarities between 
the reports could provide important information for policymakers.
  In this legislation, we ask for the intelligence community to provide 
a strategic estimate of the risks posed by global climate change for 
countries or regions that are of particular economic or military 
significance to the United States or that are at serious risk of 
humanitarian suffering. This NIE will assess the political, social, 
agricultural, and economic challenges for countries and their likely 
impact.
  Every region will be affected differently by global warming and it is 
critical that our intelligence and military communities are prepared to 
handle the situations most likely to arise.
  For example, rising sea levels will have a profound impact on low 
lying coastal areas, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. This region 
is home to 58 percent of the world's population and 57 percent of the 
world's poorest population. More than 5 million people live in major 
cities that are in low lying coastal areas.
  People in the Asia-Pacific region already endure coastal natural 
disasters, such as tsunamis, and inland flooding. Between 2001 and 
2005, 62,273 people were killed annually by water related disasters in 
this region. This number is only going to increase as the world warms.
  Africa is a place where changes in precipitation patterns will be 
particularly devastating. Many areas are already under enormous stress 
from drought and hunger. In 2005, 30 million people in 34 countries 
confronted food shortages as a result of drought. It is estimated that 
the droughts will become more severe and impact more people if the 
temperature continues to rise.
  Environmental changes caused by global warming represent a potential 
threat multiplier for instability around the world. Scarce water, for 
example, may exacerbate conflict along economic, ethnic, or sectarian 
divisions.

[[Page S4060]]

Water shortages, food insecurity, or flooding all of which may occur as 
a result of rising global temperatures could also displace people, 
forcing them to migrate. Many of the most severe effects of global 
warming are expected in regions where fragile governments are least 
capable of responding to them.
  This NIE will examine these questions and more. It will also do 
something that we don't do often enough here in Congress: it will look 
beyond the near horizon of the next election or the next few years and 
require the intelligence community to think about these issues in the 
context of the next 30 years.
  The bill we introduced today will also fund additional research by 
the Department of Defense in order to examine the impact of climate 
change on military operations.
  Rising temperatures are altering the international environment. We 
need to be prepared for this new world.
  We hope that our colleagues will join us in this bipartisan effort to 
assess the strategic implications of climate change. The scientific 
community has demonstrated that the earth is growing warmer. We are 
asking the intelligence community to analyze the geopolitical 
implications of these changes.
  I ask unanimous consent that the text of the bill be printed in the 
Record.
  There being no objection, the bill was ordered to be printed in the 
Record, as follows:

                                S. 1018

       Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of 
     the United States of America in Congress assembled,

     SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.

       This Act may be cited as the ``Global Climate Change 
     Security Oversight Act''.

     SEC. 2. FINDINGS.

       Congress makes the following findings:
       (1) According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 
     Administration, in 2007 the average annual temperature in the 
     United States and around the global is approximately 1.0 
     degree Fahrenheit warmer than at the start of the 20th 
     century, and the rate of warming has accelerated during the 
     past 30 years, increasing globally since the mid-1970s. The 
     fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on 
     Climate Change has predicted that the Earth will warm 0.72 
     degrees Fahrenheit during the next 2 decades with current 
     emission trends.
       (2) The annual national security strategy report submitted 
     pursuant to section 108 of the National Security Act of 1947 
     (50 U.S.C. 404a) for 2006 states that the United States faces 
     new security challenges, including ``environmental 
     destruction, whether caused by human behavior or cataclysmic 
     mega-disasters such as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, or 
     tsunamis. Problems of this scope may overwhelm the capacity 
     of local authorities to respond, and may even overtax 
     national militaries, requiring a larger international 
     response. These challenges are not traditional national 
     security concerns, such as the conflict of arms or 
     ideologies. But if left unaddressed they can threaten 
     national security.''.
       (3) According to the fourth assessment report of the 
     Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, average 
     temperature increases of between 2 and 4 degrees Celsius over 
     preindustrial levels are projected to cause the sea level to 
     rise by between 2 and 4 meters by 2100 due to melting of the 
     Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
       (4) In 2007, more than 200,000,000 people live in coastal 
     floodplains around the world and 2,000,000 square kilometers 
     of land and an estimated $1,000,000,000,000 worth of assets 
     are less than a 1-meter elevation above sea level.
       (5) An estimated 1,700,000,000 people in the world live in 
     areas where water is scarce and in 25 years that population 
     is projected to increase to 5,400,000,000. Climate change 
     will impact the hydrological cycle and change the location, 
     time of year, and intensity of water availability.
       (6) The report of the World Health Organization entitled 
     ``The World Health Report 2002: Reducing Risks and Promoting 
     Healthy Life'' states that ``Effects of climate change on 
     human health can be expected to be mediated through complex 
     interactions of physical, ecological, and social factors. 
     These effects will undoubtedly have a greater impact on 
     societies or individuals with scarce resources, where 
     technologies are lacking, and where infrastructure and 
     institutions (such as the health sector) are least able to 
     adapt.''.
       (7) Environmental changes relating to global climate change 
     represent a potentially significant threat multiplier for 
     instability around the world as changing precipitation 
     patterns may exacerbate competition and conflict over 
     agricultural, vegetative, and water resources and displace 
     people, thus increasing hunger and poverty and causing 
     increased pressure on fragile countries.
       (8) The strategic, social, political, and economic 
     consequences of global climate change are likely to have a 
     greater adverse effect on less developed countries with fewer 
     resources and infrastructures that are less able to adjust to 
     new economic and social pressures, and where the margin for 
     governance and survival is thin.
       (9) The consequences of global climate change represent a 
     clear and present danger to the security and economy of the 
     United States.
       (10) A failure to recognize, plan for, and mitigate the 
     strategic, social, political, and economic effects of a 
     changing climate will have an adverse impact on the national 
     security interests of the United States.

     SEC. 3. NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON GLOBAL CLIMATE 
                   CHANGE.

       (a) Requirement for National Intelligence Estimate.--
       (1) In general.--Except as provided in paragraph (2), not 
     later than 270 days after the date of enactment of this Act, 
     the Director of National Intelligence shall submit to 
     Congress a National Intelligence Estimate on the anticipated 
     geopolitical effects of global climate change and the 
     implications of such effects on the national security of the 
     United States.
       (2) Notice regarding submittal.--If the Director of 
     National Intelligence determines that the National 
     Intelligence Estimate required by paragraph (1) cannot be 
     submitted by the date set out in that paragraph, the Director 
     shall notify Congress and provide--
       (A) the reasons that the National Intelligence Estimate 
     cannot be submitted by such date; and
       (B) an estimated date for the submittal of the National 
     Intelligence Estimate.
       (b) Content.--The Director of National Intelligence shall 
     prepare the National Intelligence Estimate required by this 
     section using the mid-range projections of the fourth 
     assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 
     Change--
       (1) to assess the political, social, agricultural, and 
     economic risks during the 30-year period beginning on the 
     date of enactment of this Act posed by global climate change 
     for countries or regions that are--
       (A) of strategic economic or military importance to the 
     United States and at risk of significant impact due to global 
     climate change; or
       (B) at significant risk of large-scale humanitarian 
     suffering with cross-border implications as predicted on the 
     basis of the assessments;
       (2) to assess other risks posed by global climate change, 
     including increased conflict over resources or between ethnic 
     groups, within countries or transnationally, increased 
     displacement or forced migrations of vulnerable populations 
     due to inundation or other causes, increased food insecurity, 
     and increased risks to human health from infectious disease;
       (3) to assess the capabilities of the countries or regions 
     described in subparagraph (A) or (B) of paragraph (1) to 
     respond to adverse impacts caused by global climate change;
       (4) to assess the strategic challenges and opportunities 
     posed to the United States by the risks described in 
     paragraph (1);
       (5) to assess the security implications and opportunities 
     for the United States economy of engaging, or failing to 
     engage successfully, with other leading and emerging major 
     contributors of greenhouse gas emissions in efforts to reduce 
     emissions; and
       (6) to make recommendations for further assessments of 
     security consequences of global climate change that would 
     improve national security planning.
       (c) Coordination.--In preparing the National Intelligence 
     Estimate under this section, the Director of National 
     Intelligence shall consult with representatives of the 
     scientific community, including atmospheric and climate 
     studies, security studies, conflict studies, economic 
     assessments, and environmental security studies, the 
     Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of State, the 
     Administrator of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric 
     Administration, the Administrator of the National Aeronautics 
     and Space Administration, the Administrator of the 
     Environmental Protection Agency, the Secretary of Energy, and 
     the Secretary of Agriculture, and, if appropriate, 
     multilateral institutions and allies of the United States 
     that have conducted significant research on global climate 
     change.
       (d) Form.--The National Intelligence Estimate required by 
     this section shall be submitted in unclassified form, to the 
     extent consistent with the protection of intelligence sources 
     and methods, and include unclassified key judgments of the 
     National Intelligence Estimate. Such National Intelligence 
     Estimate may include a classified annex.

     SEC. 4. RESPONSE TO THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE.

       (a) Report by the Secretary of Defense.--Not later than 270 
     days after the date that the National Intelligence Estimate 
     required by section 3 is submitted to Congress, the Secretary 
     of Defense shall submit to the Committee on Appropriations, 
     the Committee on Armed Services, and the Select Committee on 
     Intelligence of the Senate and the Committee on 
     Appropriations, the Committee on Armed Services, and the 
     Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence of the House of 
     Representatives a report on--
       (1) the projected impact on the military installations and 
     capabilities of the United States of the effects of global 
     climate change as assessed in the National Intelligence 
     Estimate;
       (2) the projected impact on United States military 
     operations of the effects of global climate change described 
     in the National Intelligence Estimate; and

[[Page S4061]]

       (3) recommended research and analysis needed to further 
     assess the impacts on the military of global climate change.
       (b) Sense of Congress on the Next Quadrennial Defense 
     Review.--It is the sense of Congress that the Secretary of 
     Defense should address the findings of the National 
     Intelligence Estimate required by section 3 regarding the 
     impact of global climate change and potential implications of 
     such impact on the Armed Forces and for the size, 
     composition, and capabilities of Armed Forces in the next 
     Quadrennial Defense Review.
       (c) Report by the Secretary of State.--Not later than 270 
     days after the date that the National Intelligence Estimate 
     required by section 3 is submitted to Congress, the Secretary 
     of State shall submit to the Committee on Appropriations, the 
     Committee on Foreign Relations, and the Select Committee on 
     Intelligence of the Senate and the Committee on 
     Appropriations, the Committee on Foreign Affairs, and the 
     Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence of the House of 
     Representatives a report that addresses--
       (1) the potential for large migration flows in countries of 
     strategic interest or humanitarian concern as a response to 
     changes in climate and the implications for United States 
     security interests; and
       (2) the potential for diplomatic opportunities and 
     challenges facing United States policy makers as a result of 
     social, economic, or political responses of groups or nations 
     to global changing climate.

     SEC. 5. AUTHORIZATION OF RESEARCH.

       (a) In General.--The Secretary of Defense is authorized to 
     carry out research on the impacts of global climate change on 
     military operations, doctrine, organization, training, 
     material, logistics, personnel, and facilities and the 
     actions needed to address those impacts. Such research may 
     include--
       (1) the use of war gaming and other analytical exercises;
       (2) analysis of the implications for United States defense 
     capabilities of large-scale Arctic sea-ice melt and broader 
     changes in Arctic climate;
       (3) analysis of the implications for United States defense 
     capabilities of abrupt climate change;
       (4) analysis of the implications of the findings derived 
     from the National Intelligence Estimate required in section 3 
     Act for United States defense capabilities;
       (5) analysis of the strategic implications for United 
     States defense capabilities of direct physical threats to the 
     United States posed by extreme weather events such as 
     hurricanes; and
       (6) analysis of the existing policies of the Department of 
     Defense to assess the adequacy of the Department's 
     protections against climate risks to United States 
     capabilities and military interests in foreign countries.
       (b) Report.--Not later than 2 years after the date that the 
     National Intelligence Estimate required by section 3 is 
     submitted to Congress, the Secretary of Defense shall submit 
     to Congress a report on the results of the research, war 
     games, and other activities carried out pursuant to 
     subsection (a).

     SEC. 6. AUTHORIZATION OF APPROPRIATIONS.

       There is authorized to be appropriated such sums as may be 
     necessary to carry out this Act.

  Mr. HAGEL. Mr. President. I rise today to join Senator Durbin in 
introducing the Global Climate Change Security Oversight Act.
  Global climate change has implications beyond economic, environmental 
and energy policies. It has the potential to affect every aspect of our 
daily lives. It is because of the possible broad impact on U.S. 
interests at home and abroad that I have agreed to be the lead 
Republican co-sponsor on the Global Climate Change Security Oversight 
Act.
  Senator Durbin and I differ on policy initiatives designed to reduce 
the impact of climate change. We do agree, however, on the need to 
assess potential impacts of the changing climate on U.S. national 
security interests so that our Nation can develop responsible, forward-
thinking policies that ensure the continued safety and prosperity of 
the American people.
  There will always be uncertainties and incomplete information in 
climate science. This is the nature of scientific discovery; it is 
constantly evolving, constantly gaining new insights and explanations 
of our natural world. National policy must be crafted based on what is 
known, but also must be able to incorporate the uncertainties of what 
is yet to be learned.
  Our bill provides a foundation for future policy options. It 
instructs the Director of National Intelligence to conduct a National 
Intelligence Estimate to assess the potential geopolitical effects of 
global climate change and the implications for U.S. national security. 
It asks for a risk assessment of a broad array of impacts based on 
current scientific understanding. This bill is intended to gather 
information about the national security implications of projected 
climate change, so that in the future, Congress can develop policies 
that protect U.S. interests around the world.
  I have said that the debate is not about whether we should take 
action, but rather what kind of action we should take. It would be 
irresponsible to attempt to develop a response to the physical effects 
of climate change without knowing what the potential consequences are. 
Our actions should always be based on a comprehensive base of 
scientific information and knowledge. Without this kind of information, 
we cannot effectively determine what the risks to U.S. national 
security will be. We cannot realistically design policies that mitigate 
these risks without this information. General Charles F. ``Chuck'' 
Wald, USAF, ret., former Deputy Commander, Headquarters U.S. European 
Command, has stated, ``This bipartisan legislation takes on an 
important emerging policy issue--the impact of climate change and 
national security. I support its call for a national intelligence 
estimate of the topic and authorizing the Secretary of Defense to 
conduct further research on the military impact of climate change.''
  As I have said for many years, the way forward is to responsibly 
address the issue of climate change with a national strategy that 
incorporates economic, environmental and energy priorities. These 
issues are inextricably linked and changes to one will effect the other 
two. These priorities are also an integral part of U.S. national 
security. Risk assessment is essential to putting our national 
resources in the places where they will be most effective. This is even 
more important when assessing risk to national security. This 
legislation will provide information we need to continue to help make 
our country secure in the years to come.

                          ____________________