[Congressional Record Volume 150, Number 74 (Tuesday, June 1, 2004)]
[House]
[Pages H3589-H3593]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
FEDERAL SPENDING AND FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY
The SPEAKER pro tempore (Mr. Feeney). Under the Speaker's announced
policy of January 7, 2003, the gentleman from Michigan (Mr. Smith) is
recognized for 54 minutes, unless the remaining speaker does not come
to claim her time, in which case he has a full 60 minutes.
Mr. SMITH of Michigan. Mr. Speaker, 54 minutes probably is very
adequate. I was sitting up in my office listening, reading letters from
constituents, letters that wanted more money for the AIDS program,
letters that wanted more money over the approximately $29 billion that
is going to our foreign support programs. They wanted more money for
food stamps, letters coming in wanting more money for health care,
wanting more money for
[[Page H3590]]
NIH. I think it should be obvious, certainly it is with most of our
Members, that there are many, many problems out there; and the question
is how many of those problems should it be the responsibility of
government to solve.
We are now faced with a situation in the United States where
approximately 50 percent of the adult population only pay about 1
percent of the income tax. So as we have moved in the last 30 to 40
years from an environment that our forefathers set up in the
Constitution that encouraged effort, it encouraged savings, it
encouraged individuals that saved and worked hard and invested, because
they would be better off than those that did not; then, over the last
35 to 40 years, we have been sort of dividing the wealth up by
increasing the taxes on those that might make it or those that work
harder, or those that save and invest, and distributing some of their
tax money to the individuals that made less effort or were, in other
words, sometimes unlucky. I think that is a danger for our future.
Mr. Speaker, this is the 195th year of Abraham Lincoln's birth; and
in his famous Gettysburg Address, he sort of surmised and wondered if a
nation of the people, by the people and for the people could long
endure. And I think in this kind of an environment where we have both
sides of the aisle now calling for more spending; and it is an
advantage to get reelected, Mr. Speaker, those individuals that take
home more pork barrel projects, that promise more spending to solve
more of these problems, probably do get on the television a little
more, maybe get a picture of cutting their pork barrel project ribbon
that they have taken home to their community. But the imposition on
taxpayers today and maybe more importantly the burden that we are
placing on taxpayers tomorrow, our kids and our grandkids, should be
considered in the decisions we are making today.
I wanted to start out, Mr. Speaker, with sort of a pie chart on how
we spend our Federal dollars this year.
{time} 2215
As you see, the biggest piece of pie in this chart is Social
Security. Some people suggest, well, why is Social Security part of
that Federal spending pie? It is really a separate account. It is a
separate account. However, I think it should be noted that on two
occasions the Supreme Court has said just because you pay Social
Security taxes there is no entitlement to the program benefits when you
retire.
Social Security is simply another tax that Congress and the President
have imposed on people, and the benefits are a separate bill of
benefits that can be changed any time Congress and the White House
wants to change those benefits. Of course, that is what we have done
over the years. Every time we need a little more money for Social
Security in this, if you will, pay-as-you-go program, the taxes have
been increased or benefits have been cut or a combination.
So as we go around the pie chart we have Social Security taking in 21
percent of the total Federal spending. Coming around at 7:30, 8:00,
Medicare is at 12 percent. The prediction is that Medicare costs will
overtake Social Security within the next 18 to 20 years.
Other entitlement programs, 10 percent; domestic discretionary 16
percent. That is outside of defense. Domestic discretionary is what
this body and the Senate discuss and argue about for 6 or 7 months out
of the year. The rest of it is almost on fixed type of spending.
As you see, the next item is defense spending at 20 percent. That has
gone up a little over a percent because of the war in Afghanistan, the
war on terror and the war in Iraq.
Interest. I want to dwell a moment in interest at 14 percent. The
interest on our debt in this country, now a little over $7.3 trillion,
is $300 billion a year. That is $300 billion at a time when we are
looking at a future of deficits that is adding to that debt
approximately $500 billion plus a year.
We are looking at relatively low interest rates today compared to the
prospect of going back to much higher interest rates. So if we continue
this overspending and if interest rates are going to go back up higher,
which Mr. Greenspan predicted, which most of the economists are now
predicting, we could well see interest on the debt within the next 20
years taking up 25 to 30 percent of the total Federal budget.
And I would just suggest, Mr. Speaker, this is, maybe a stronger word
than unfair, would be unconscionable for Congress, the House and the
Senate and the White House to think our problems today are so great
that it justifies taking the money of our kids and our grandkids that
they have not even earned that yet. They are going to have their own
challenges, their own problems, and they are going to be unable to
continue to increase the debt of this country to pass on to their kids
and their grandkids.
I am a farmer from Michigan. Traditionally, on the farm what we try
to do is pay down the mortgage so that our kids will have a little
better chance of having an easier life than maybe their parents or
grandparents did. In this body, Mr. Speaker, what we are doing is just
the opposite. We are increasing the debt every year.
Deficit, of course, is how much we are overspending over and above
the revenues coming into the Federal Government. The overspending or
deficit spending this year is going to be about $560 billion, next year
about $530 billion, maybe a little higher. And what we are saying is we
are adding that much to the debt.
In the next 2 months we are going to have to again pass a legislation
in the House and the Senate signed by the President to increase the
debt limit from its current $7.3 trillion on up to cover this kind of
overspending and the debt that we are passing on to our kids.
I want to emphasize two things. We are passing on this liability to
our children and our grandchildren in two ways: One is the deficit
spending and the increased debt and the burdens of being responsible
for that debt in future years, and the other is making promises that we
do not have the money to pay for. That is the next chart.
The budgeteers call this unfunded liabilities. Unfunded liabilities
means passing a law for a benefit program and the funds that are going
to be required over and above what is coming in to pay for those
programs. The payroll tax for Social Security, Medicare, is going to be
the unfunded liability, what we are going to need over and above the
payroll tax coming in. $73.5 trillion is estimated by the actuaries.
Medicare part A is $21.8 trillion. That is mostly the Medicare that
goes to hospitals. Medicare part B is mostly what goes to the doctors.
$23 trillion, Medicare part D, the new drug program that was passed
last November, the unfunded liability on that program is $16.6
trillion.
And so Social Security is $12 trillion. That is more than a quarter
million dollars of unfunded liability for every man, woman, and child
in America; and what is happening, of course, is the demographics of
individuals living longer and the birth rate declining means that there
is going to be even greater burden for our kids and our grandkids.
The next chart shows if we do not do anything, if we keep just simply
continuing to talk about that 16.6 percent of the spending that is
discretionary spending and we do not deal with the kind of changes in
the rest of the so-called entitlement programs, it is going to not only
be a huge impact on the way of life and the potential success of our
kids and our grandkids but it is going to be a huge imposition and
strain on the economy of this country.
And let me just ask, Mr. Speaker, if anybody would like to venture a
guess on what the payroll tax is in France, for example. The payroll
tax to accommodate their senior programs in France is now over 50
percent of a payroll tax. Germany just when over 40 percent for their
payroll tax to accommodate their senior population. If the United
States continues to put off the solutions and dealing with these tough
problems, then we are certainly going to see a situation where it is
going to make us even more at a competitive disadvantage.
We are already increasing our taxes on our businesses approximately
18 percent over the taxes that are charged to our competitors. Our
overzealous regulations, our high health care costs added to that put
our business at a competitive disadvantage with many countries. But if
we continue to slip
[[Page H3591]]
and slide and not deal with the problems of the unfunded liability for
Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid, then the situation is even
going to be worse.
And if we have that kind of a payroll tax, one understands that that
business only has a couple options. They either try to pay less wages
and salary to their employees in order to be competitive, or they try
to increase the price of their product to cover their cost, and that
tends to make them less competitive. So one can understand the
demonstrations and frustrations in countries like France and Germany.
This chart shows that just in 16 years from now we will have to take
an additional 28 percent out of the general fund to accommodate those
other programs, what is needed over and above the money coming in from
the payroll tax. By 2030, it is going to be over 52 percent that is
going to come out of the general fund. We add to that the projection of
the cost of the debt, servicing that debt, that is probably going to be
approaching 20 percent at least in the next 15 years.
This chart is just a quick glimpse of the short-term surpluses from
the huge tax increase on Social Security on the increase in the FICA
tax that was passed by the Greenspan Commission in 1983. That increased
tax money to cover temporarily the increase the cost of Social Security
is going to last until about 2017, and then we have a huge, big red
future. The red part of this graph projects the $12 trillion unfunded
liability in Social Security.
I want to spend a minute, Mr. Speaker, talking about how Social
Security works and the problem with Social Security. It is a tough
problem; and it is easy to understand why Members of Congress have
tended to say, well, look, we are going to save Social Security but we
are not going to pass the bill right now, we are going to look at it
more closely. Mr. Speaker, many of my colleagues in their past
campaigns said, look, we need to do something about solving the problem
with Social Security.
Here is how Social Security works. Benefits are highly progressive
and based on earnings. At retirement, all of a worker's wages up to the
tax ceiling are indexed to present value using wage inflation. What
that means is if wage inflation means a doubling of wages every 9
years, it means a job 20 years ago that, or 18 years ago, that paid
$10,000 now you would be paying maybe $30,000 for that job. So when
Social Security indexes your best 35 years, it adds into those 35 years
what the current value of that job was, whether it was held 10 years
ago or 20 years ago or 30 years ago.
The annual benefits for those retiring in 2004 is very progressive.
And, very quickly, today 90 percent of the earnings up to $7,340, in
other words, if you are a low-income earner and over those 35 years you
averaged $7,500 in wages, the government would pay you 90 percent of
your weekly or monthly take-home pay in your retirement years.
The next 32 percent of earnings between the $7,300 and the $44,000,
is 32 percent of your earnings. And then as we deal with higher wage
earners when they retire, everything above the $44,000 is only given 15
percent in terms of what you get back in Social Security benefits.
And I added this. Early retirees receive adjusted benefits, and SSI
does not come out of the Social Security system. It comes out of the
general fund.
Let us talk a little bit about how we are going to fix Social
Security. One way is to get a better return on the investment, the
money that is sent in by the employee and the employer. Right now,
Social Security is not a good investment. The average retiree will
receive 1.7 percent return above inflation on what they and their
employer sent into the Social Security system.
Franklin Roosevelt, when he created the Social Security program over
6 decades ago, he wanted it to feature a private sector component to
build retirement income. His suggestion that he sent to Congress is
that there be personal accounts but that individual would be forced to
put into that personally owned account and they would not take anything
out until they reached age 65.
Looking through the archives in downtown Washington, I discovered
that the Senate did pass that bill for personally owned accounts. The
House passed a bill suggesting that it should be the government in
control, taking all the money in and then paying out benefits when that
individual reached 65. By the way, the program worked very well in
those early years because the average age of death was 62. One could
not collect benefits until you reached age 65. So most people paid in
but never took out benefits.
It is a program that is stretched to its limits. And the reason is
demographics. Seventy-eight million baby boomers are going to begin
retiring in 3\1/2\ years from now. Social Security spending exceeds tax
revenues in 2017, and Social Security is simply going broke, and it
needs to be fixed.
It is not guessing on insolvency. I have heard suggestions from both
sides of the aisle if we can get our economy strong enough, it will fix
Social Security. Well, the fact is that we know how many people there
are, we know when they are going to retire, we know that people will
live longer in retirement. But here is what also we know: We know that
if we are earning more wages now because of a stronger economy, or if
more people are working now because of a stronger economy, because
there is a direct relationship to how much you are earning and paying
in now and how much you will get out when you retire, a stronger
economy now means there is more money going into the system, but it
means when these people retire there is more money going to be spent
going out of the system.
{time} 2230
So simply having a strong expanding economy by itself does not solve
the Social Security problem.
My last blip on this chart, payroll taxes will not cover benefits
starting in 2017 and the shortfalls will add up to $120 trillion
between 2017 and 2075.
Here is the problem of the birth rate going down and the fact that
people are living to older ages. In 1940 there were 28 people working
paying in for every one retiree, so they were spreading the costs
between those 28 workers on their payroll tax to finance every one
senior. By the year 2000, it got down to three people working paying in
and supporting one senior, so the taxes kept going up.
The projection for 2025 is there will be two individuals working for
every one senior that they are trying to support in their retirement.
Economic growth will not fix Social Security, Social Security benefits
are indexed to wage growth; and when the economy grows, workers pay
more in taxes, but also will earn more in benefits when they retire.
Growth makes the numbers look better now, as we discussed, but leaves a
larger hole to fill in in later years.
Mr. Speaker, I was chairman of the bipartisan Social Security Task
Force, and I probably made maybe 250 speeches around the country. In
those early speeches people said, well, if Congress would keep their
hands off the money coming in from Social Security, if they would keep
their hands off the Social Security trust fund, everything would be
okay. Well, we should keep our hands off that trust fund. That money
should be invested and returning real earnings back to the Social
Security. But these two columns show the money that is in the trust
fund, roughly $700 billion borrowed. You add interest to that, so now
there are IOUs out there that represent $1.4 trillion. But here is the
total column of what is required for the Social Security problem. That
is $12 trillion. So we need to get back that $1.4 trillion, and it is
all spent; so government has spent all the money when it came in.
So now the challenge is how do we, do we simply reduce benefits again
so that we do not need as much money, do we raise taxes again on
workers where already 78 percent of American workers are paying more in
the payroll tax than they do the income tax?
On this chart, it probably justifies an explanation. We will need
$120 trillion between 2017 and 2075 in future dollars. The $12 trillion
that we talk about in unfunded liability or the total for Medicare and
Medicaid added to that is $73.5 trillion. That means that money would
have to be put in a savings account today accruing interest that would
accommodate for inflation plus the time value of money to come up with
the $120 trillion that is required
[[Page H3592]]
until the future years to cover Social Security benefits, that much
more is needed over and above what is coming in on the payroll tax now.
Social Security has a total unfunded liability of $12 trillion.
Social Security trust fund contains nothing but IOUs. To keep paying
promised Social Security benefits, the payroll tax will have to be
increased by nearly 50 percent or benefits will have to be put by 30
percent. And with this program, with most of our seniors depending on
Social Security for most of their retirement income, I think it would
be very bad policy to again cut benefits. But that is what we have done
in the past. That is what we did with the 1983 changes. We increased
the taxes up to 12.4 percent, and we cut benefits in several ways
including increasing the retirement age gradually from 65 to 67 years
old.
This figure shows that Social Security is a bad investment. In fact,
if you are a black male, you have a negative return on the money you
pay in to Social Security because on average a black male will die at
something like 63\1/2\ years old, before they reach 65 years old. The
average return for the average retiree is 1.7 percent. The column to
the far right represents what the market has done, and this is the
Wilshire 5000 that actually earned 11.86 percent over and above
inflation for the 10 years ending January 31, 2004. This, of course,
included almost 2\1/2\, almost 3 years of a down equity market on the
stocks. This is another way of saying, Mr. Speaker, that Social
Security is a bad investment.
This chart shows how many years a retiree is going to have to live
after retirement to break even on the money he and his employer, or he
or she if they are self-employed, sent into Social Security. In 1995,
if you retired in 1995, you have to live 16 years after retirement. By
2005 you will have to live 23 years after you retire to break even on
the money you send in to Social Security. So that should bring to mind,
is there a better way to invest some of this money than simply sending
it to the government and letting the government write out an IOU and
spend any extra money that they have and only giving the retiree an
average of 1.7 percent return?
This chart I wanted to show simply because I think it indicates the
danger of doing nothing and continuing to put off this decision. I
would, as a footnote, I would just urge that every citizen in this
election year when you go to candidate forums, when you go to
Presidential forums and speak to their representatives, ask them what
bill they have signed on or introduced to solve the Social Security and
Medicare problem of unfunded liability, the fact that these programs
are going broke. Because I think the danger is putting it off and then
we simply increase taxes again.
As you see, in 1940 we had the first tax increase. We went from 1.5
percent to 2 percent, 2 percent of 3,000. In 1960 we tripled it to 60
percent of a base of 4,800. In 1980 almost doubling it again to 10.16
percent of the first 26,000. By 2000 we raised it to 12.4 percent of
the first 76,000. In 2004, 12 percent of the first 87,900. And that
view of history of what Congress and the administration has done
probably is a danger signal to what we might do again if we do not
stand up and deal with this problem.
I know it is so easy to demagogue because this is my, I introduced my
first Social Security bill when I came here in 1993. And I have
introduced a Social Security bill every year after that that has been
scored to keep Social Security solvent. So every election, I face the
challengers that are saying I want to ruin Social Security.
Now, probably after so many speeches in my 7th Congressional District
of Michigan, most of my constituents understand the real problem of
Social Security. So if those candidates that are replacing me, they are
all very supportive that the system needs to be changed to keep it
solvent and to keep this important program going and to keep our
promises. Because what seniors, of course, what working people do is
they look at how much revenue is going to come in from Social Security
and what other kinds of savings they need to accommodate a retirement
life-style that is going to be satisfactory. So simply telling these
workers in their late forties and fifties that we are going to start
reducing benefits would be terribly unfair.
This simply is a chart showing that 78 percent of workers today pay
more in the Social Security tax than they do in the income tax.
The six principles that I have set up, one, protect current and
future beneficiaries; two, allow freedom of choice; three, preserve the
safety net. In other words, in my bills I leave at least half of the
trust funds in place. Four, make Americans better off, not worse off.
So have a program where savings and investment in our industry is
encouraged. Five, create a fully funded system. And my last blip that I
think is important is no tax increases on your payroll taxes.
Mr. Speaker, I am going to briefly run through the bill that I have
just recently introduced. The Social Security trust fund continues,
voluntary accounts would start at 2.5 percent of a personally owned
retirement account and would reach 8 percent in future years, 2075.
Investments would be safe, widely diversified, and investment providers
would be subject to government oversight. The government on the last
blip, the government would supplement the accounts of workers earning
less than $35,000 a year. And what that does is ensure that with the
magic of compound interest, adding a little bit to these low-wage
workers into their privately held savings account, means that their
trust funds are going to grow to a modest income workers can retire
with what millionaires are getting from Social Security today. So the
goal is to encourage savings and to have a system that does even better
than our current Social Security system.
Actually, I think this was first suggested by President Clinton that
we add some funds to low-income workers in their personal savings
account to help encourage more savings and to give them the kind of
retirement benefits with that larger nest egg and how it can
accumulate.
My Social Security bill, as all my Social Security bills, has been
scored by the Social Security Administration to restore long-term
solvency to Social Security. No increase in the retirement age and no
changes in the COLA, the cost of living, or no changes in the benefits
for seniors or near-term seniors. Solvency is achieved through higher
returns from worker accounts and slowing down the benefits for high-
income retirees. I do that by adding another ben point.
You remember the ben point chart that went from 90 percent to 32
percent to 15 percent. I add another so-called ben point at 5 percent
so that high-income retirees would have the effect of having their
benefits, their increase in benefits slowed down. Workers' accounts,
all workers' accounts would be owned by the worker and invested through
pools supervised by the government. Regulations would be instituted to
prevent people from taking undue risks. In other words, we start out
like the Thrift Savings Account for Federal employees, and that is a
limit on where you can invest the money, such as index stocks, index
bonds, index cap funds and other safe investments as determined by the
Secretary of Treasury. Regulations would be substituted to prevent
people from taking those undue risks through that process, and workers
have a choice of those three safe index funds with more options after
they have a balance in their account of $2,500 or more.
What we also include in the bill is once you are able to have a
permanent annuity that will guarantee you the same benefits as Social
Security, then you can stop paying the 6.2 percent of your wages, of
your income that you now pay into Social Security. So it gives you that
kind of option if you think you can make the kind of investments and
have the ability to set up that kind of insurance system just to
guarantee that you are not going to later ask people to help finance
your retirement if things go wrong.
{time} 2245
Worker accounts. Accounts are voluntary and participants would
receive benefits directly from the government, along with their
accounts. Government benefits would be offset based on the money
deposited into their account, not on the money earned, and workers
could expect to earn more from their accounts than from the traditional
Social Security. I think it is obvious that we could incorporate in
this legislation
[[Page H3593]]
a guarantee that if anybody selected the option, you can stay with the
old system if you want to and not have personal retirement accounts, in
my proposed legislation, but if you do go into personally-owned
retirement accounts, we are guaranteeing that they are going to be at
least as good in terms of what they are going to contribute towards
your retirement as Social Security. So you cannot lose.
Fairness for women. This is what I have incorporated in this Social
Security bill. For married couples, account contributions would be
pooled and then divided equally between husband and wife. So, if one
spouse is earning much more than the other spouse, you add the two
earnings together, you divide by two to determine what is going to be
the identical amount that is going to go into both the husband's and
the wife's personal retirement savings account.
Two, it would increase surviving spouse benefits to 110 percent of
the higher earning spouse's benefit. Currently, it is 100 percent. This
tries to encourage people to stay in their own home a little longer
rather than going to a nursing home. So we have upped the minimum
amount that is going to be allowed after one spouse's death.
Then stay-at-home moms. For stay-at-home mothers with kids under 5,
they would receive retirement credit. So, for those limited number of
years that they stay at home with those kids under 5 years old, we give
them the average of their higher earnings for those outyears to fill in
that best 35 years in determining their benefits.
The additional retirement security. Trying to encourage a couple of
things, encourage more savings, encourage people to stay in their own
homes a little longer after they retire. So these are other provisions
I have incorporated in my bill that is a bipartisan bill, signed by
Democrats and Republicans.
The increased contribution limits for IRAs, 401(k)s and pension
plans, we would increase that contribution limit. The second blip, a 33
percent tax credit for the purchase of long-term care insurance up to
$1,000 per individual, $2,000 per couple. Low-income seniors would be
eligible for a $1,000 tax credit for expenses related to living in
their own homes and households caring for those dependents. So, if the
kids are having one of their parents or both of their parents live with
them, they would get a tax credit to encourage them to use their
facility and care for their parents as opposed to maybe their parents
going into a nursing home.
Nursing home care, of course, is now increasing dramatically as we
pass more rules and regulations. On the average, in my area of
Michigan, nursing homes cost from $40- to $55,000 a year for a senior
to stay at that nursing home, and with the increased medical
technology, these elderly individuals that thought they had saved
enough during their working years soon find out that if they are going
to live that longer period of time, then their savings is used up, and
they switch and then they are eligible for Medicaid, where the
government pays the cost of that nursing home care.
The promises that Congress has made. As I summarize Mr. Speaker, I
would just encourage all citizens of this country to look at the
overpromising and the overspending that seems popular for the moment,
but in the long run, it becomes a detriment not only to our kids and
our grandkids but to the kind of pressures it is going to put on
economic growth in future years.
____________________