[Congressional Record Volume 150, Number 60 (Tuesday, May 4, 2004)]
[House]
[Pages H2497-H2498]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]




                         THE REAL MISERY INDEX

  The SPEAKER pro tempore (Mr. Burns). Pursuant to the order of the 
House of January 20, 2004, the gentleman from Florida (Mr. Stearns) is 
recognized during morning hour debates for 5 minutes.
  Mr. STEARNS. Mr. Speaker, I think it is appropriate today to talk 
about the economy. Today, Chairman Greenspan is meeting with members of 
the Federal Reserve to determine whether to increase interest rates. 
Part of my talk will include excerpts from the Wall Street Journal of 
April 11, 2004, their editorial.
  Mr. Speaker, we have seen a lot of good economic news of late. In 
March, the economy added 308,000 new jobs. U.S. factories have expanded 
for the llth consecutive month. For the first quarter of 2004, the 
gross domestic product increased by 4.2 percent. It is continuing the 
strongest growth in 20 years.
  And we have seen that Federal tax cuts of the last few years have put 
the United States near the top, or at the top of the advanced large 
economies in their growth. We have offered incentives to work, to save, 
and invest, according to the Joint Economic Committee.
  But instead, the media have done a terrific job of convincing 
everybody these are the worst of times. A poll, conducted by the 
American Research Group in mid-March, found that 44 percent of 
Americans believe that the country was still in a recession. That is 
strange when you consider that the last recession ended way back in the 
year 2001. And for the last two quarters of 2003, the U.S. economy grew 
at an annualized rate of 6.1 percent, the fastest growth in 20 years. 
Even more remarkable, the percentage of gloomsters was higher in March, 
when we created 308,000 new jobs.
  By nearly every objective measure, the U.S. economy is stronger and 
is getting stronger. Let us look at the Misery Index, the measure 
created by the late economist, Arthur Okun. He added the rates of 
unemployment and inflation. This may not be the most sophisticated 
metric to use, but it does capture the two greatest threats to 
household wealth and security, that is inflation and unemployment. 
Comparisons to the 1990s' bubble years excepted, the U.S. economy is 
doing very, very well.
  Today's unemployment is 5.7 percent, close to the level President 
Bill Clinton boasted about as he sought reelection in 1996. Meanwhile, 
inflation has fallen by a full percentage point over the past 8 years. 
I have a table which indicates that the economy compares favorably by 
reelection standards and President Bush's policies should be enjoying 
at least a modicum of respect.
  In 1976 under President Ford, the Misery Index was 14.5 percent. In 
1980 under President Carter, it was 20.6 percent. In 1984 under 
President Reagan, 11.8 percent. Under Bush I in 1992, it

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was 10.5 percent. In 1996 under Clinton, 8.4 percent. This year under 
Bush II, it is 7.7 percent. It is the lowest of all those Presidents at 
the time they were seeking Presidential reelection.
  In conclusion, in 2003, the United States economy grew at a faster 
pace than the eight other largest advanced economies: Australia, 
Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, and the United Kingdom. 
We are seeing steady increase in manufacturing and overall 
productivity. Retail sales increased strongly in March, rising 1.8 
percent, the largest monthly gain in a year.
  In conclusion, we are seeing the economic policies of the Bush 
administration and the resulting action by this Congress are enabling 
the economy to expand, offer new jobs, new opportunities, and increase 
the quality of life for all Americans. That is the good news for all of 
us.

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