[Congressional Record Volume 150, Number 59 (Monday, May 3, 2004)]
[Senate]
[Pages S4736-S4737]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]




                   CALCULATION OF THE EMPLOYMENT RATE

  Mr. ALEXANDER. Mr. President, I wish to discuss with my colleagues 
something of a mystery. I have yet to be able to find an answer to this 
mystery. I am hoping by addressing it on the Senate floor and by 
letters I am sending today to Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Board of 
Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and the Bureau of Labor 
Statistics, their research might help me figure this out.
  I asked Chairman Greenspan at our hearing on April 21 of the Joint 
Economic Committee about the 6 million people, more or less, who are 
living and working in the United States who our Government is not 
counting when it makes our monthly projections about who is working and 
who is unemployed.
  Here is what I base that question on: There is a consensus there are 
8 to 10 million undocumented aliens or illegal immigrants in the United 
States today. For example, the Urban Institute estimate says 8 million, 
and the Center for Immigration Studies says 10 million. The Urban 
Institute estimates perhaps 6 million or more of those undocumented 
persons have a job in the United States. I do not think there is much 
debate about the fact there are 6 million people living in the United 
States, more or less, who are illegally here who are also working.
  My guess is our Government is not counting most of these 6 million 
undocumented aliens when we announce each month the number of Americans 
who have jobs. It was 138 million for March and the number who are 
unemployed, 5.7 percent of the workforce, or 8.4 million people in 
March.
  The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which makes these announcements each 
month, gathers their estimates in two different ways. The first is the 
so-called payroll survey of 400,000 business establishments. Since it 
is a violation of Federal criminal laws for a company to employ an 
undocumented alien, I think it is wrong to assume most or even many of 
the 6 million illegal immigrants who are working here are reported by 
the payroll survey. Nor do I believe these 6 million illegal immigrants 
are likely to be included in the other principal data-gathering 
mechanism of the survey, which we call the household survey.

  This is a survey of more than 60,000 persons living in the United 
States which basically asked in many different ways, do you have a job? 
Now, this must include a lot of people the payroll service does not, 
people such as farmers, people working at home, independent 
contractors, and I suspect a lot of people who are here illegally.
  I also believe that it paints a much clearer picture of employment in 
the United States than the payroll survey. Common sense suggests to me 
that the household survey also does not include many undocumented 
aliens. If one is an illegal immigrant and they receive a phone call 
from the Government asking questions, they are not likely to give many 
answers, I would not think, especially if the phone call is not in 
their native language.
  So I see no basis to assume these 6 million workers--my guess is in 
most cases hard workers but undocumented aliens--are being counted or 
that they are being equally uncounted by the two surveys, which is what 
Mr. Greenspan suggested might be the case. Our failure to find some way 
to consider the implications of having what I would judge to be so many 
undocumented aliens working has a great many policy implications.
  Now I am not trying in these remarks to solve the great issues of 
immigration, whether we should have it, how much we should have, what 
we should do. That is another debate. I am just trying to understand 
who is here. If 6 million are here and working, are we counting them? 
It would be helpful to know the answer to that question, to know 
whether we are understating the number of people living in America who 
are employed and stating the rate of people in America who are 
unemployed.
  This is one of the principal debates in our presidential campaign: It 
is the economy, stupid. It is jobs. Well, how do these 6 million 
uncounted workers affect the information we put out each month upon 
which we make all of these debates? Also, if we have 8.4 million 
unemployed, according to our official statistics, and if 6 million 
illegal immigrants are working, are these 6 million taking jobs that 
the 8.4 million want? Also, if these 6 million were not here, would we 
suddenly have virtually full employment?
  Another point might be, if these 6 million were not here and the 8.4 
million still remained unemployed, or many of them did, that certainly 
would tell us something about whether we need more or less unemployment 
insurance, more or fewer training programs, or more or fewer lessons in 
English. Or if the 6 million illegal workers are actually employed, 
that would tell us something about the effectiveness of our immigration 
laws and would help us make more accurate estimates of the 
contributions these workers might

[[Page S4737]]

make to the Social Security and Medicare systems.
  So if we are going to rely on these monthly estimates from the Bureau 
of Labor Statistics, my point is, if one is going to say to us we have 
138 million people at work in the United States, what about the 6 
million who are here who probably are not counted, who are illegally 
here? They are real people. They are working in real jobs. What about 
them? Or if we are talking about the 8.4 million people who are 
unemployed in the United States, what is the effect of having 6 million 
illegal people on that rate of unemployment? It is information I think 
we ought to know.
  At the end of his answer to my question, Mr. Greenspan said that 
having better information about the number of undocumented aliens 
living and working in the United States is a subject that has 
``bedeviled statisticians.''
  I believe it is also a problem we ought to try harder to figure out 
the answer to. In fact, I believe it is inexcusable that we would base 
so much of our public debate about unemployment on surveys that likely 
exclude several million employed workers in the United States, many of 
them doing jobs that most Americans consider to be valuable jobs.
  This failure to report accurate information may be leading us into a 
number of erroneous, ineffective, and expensive policy decisions. I 
have asked Mr. Greenspan and his excellent staff and I have asked the 
Bureau of Labor Statistics if they could examine this question in-depth 
and give me and perhaps other Members of the Joint Economic Committee, 
if Chairman Bennett finds the subject interesting, an opportunity to 
talk with them about their conclusion.
  It seems odd that we would continue to base so much of our national 
debate upon information that may be flawed, and if it is not flawed, 
then we need someone with reasonable authority to say that each month 
we are counting the 5, 6 or 7 million people who have jobs in the 
United States and who are illegally here so that this cannot be an 
issue. If they cannot say that, then we need to work harder to find out 
the answer.
  I ask unanimous consent that a copy of my letter to Chairman Alan 
Greenspan be printed in the Record.
   There being no objection, the material was ordered to be printed in 
the Record, as follows:

                                                  U.S. Senate,

                                      Washington, DC, May 3, 2004.
      Hon. Alan Greenspan,
      Chairman, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System, 
         Washington, DC.
        Dear Mr. Chairman, I am writing to follow up on your 
     answer to my question about illegal immigration and 
     calculation of the employment rate during your testimony 
     before the Joint Economic Committee on April 21.
        My concern is that there may be up to 6 million people 
     living and working in the United States who our government is 
     not counting when it makes our regular projections about who 
     is working and who is unemployed.
        There is a consensus that there are 8 to 10 million 
     undocumented aliens or illegal immigrants in the United 
     States today. For example, estimates from the Urban Institute 
     and the Center for Immigration Studies, based on data from 
     the Current Population Survey, are 8 million and 10 million 
     respectively. The Urban Institute estimates that 6 million or 
     more undocumented persons have a job in the United States.
        You indicated in your comments to my question that you 
     believe our government's job-counting surveys take these 
     illegal workers into account, or at least, they do a fairly 
     equal job of NOT taking them into account.
        My guess is that the government is not counting most of 
     these 6 million illegal workers when we announce each month 
     the number of Americans who have jobs (138,298,000 for March, 
     seasonally adjusted) and the number who are unemployed (5.7 
     percent of the workforce or 8.4 million people in March, 
     seasonally adjusted).
        The Bureau of Labor Statistics gathers data for these 
     estimates in two main ways. The principal way is through the 
     Current Employment Statistics Program, or so-called payroll 
     survey of payroll records from 400,000 business 
     establishments. Since it is a violation of Federal criminal 
     laws for a company to employ an undocumented alien, I think 
     it is wrong to assume that most or even many of the 6 million 
     illegal immigrants who are working for established businesses 
     are reported by the payroll survey. These illegal immigrants 
     may be self-employed, agricultural workers, contractors, or 
     in some other kind of work that is not in any event covered 
     by the payroll survey.
        Nor do I believe that most of the 6 million illegal 
     immigrants are likely to be included in the other principal 
     data-gathering mechanism of the bureau, the Current 
     Population Survey, commonly known as the household survey. 
     This is a telephone survey of more than 60,000 persons living 
     in the United States that basically asks in many different 
     ways, ``Do you have a job?'' The household survey must 
     include a great many persons that the payroll survey does 
     not--such as farmers, people working at home, and independent 
     contractors--which is one reason why it paints a larger 
     picture of employment in the United States than the payroll 
     survey. But common sense suggests to me that the household 
     survey does not include many illegal immigrants. If you are 
     an illegal immigrant and you receive a phone call from the 
     government asking questions, you are not likely to give many 
     answers--especially if the phone call is not in your native 
     language.
        So I see no basis to assume that these 6 million 
     undocumented aliens are being counted--or that they are being 
     equally uncounted--by the two surveys.
       Our failure to find some way to consider the implications 
     of having so many undocumented aliens working has a great 
     many policy implications:
       Knowing the answer would help us know if we are 
     understating the number of people living in America who are 
     employed and overstating the rate of unemployment.
       If we have 8.4 million unemployed and 6 million illegal 
     immigrants working, are those 6 million taking jobs that the 
     other 8.4 million want?
       If the 6 million all went home, would we have virtually 
     full employment?
       If the 6 million all went home and the 8.4 million still 
     remained unemployed, that certainly would tell us something 
     about whether we needed more or less unemployment insurance, 
     or more or fewer training programs, or more or fewer lessons 
     in English.
       If the 6 million illegal workers are actually employed, 
     that would tell us something about the effectiveness of our 
     immigration laws--and it would help us make more accurate 
     estimates of contributions these workers might make to the 
     Social Security and Medicare systems.
       You said at the end of your answer to my question that 
     having better information about the number of undocumented 
     aliens living and working in the United States is a subject 
     that has ``bedeviled'' statisticians. If is also a problem we 
     ought to try harder to figure out.
       In fact, I believe it is inexcusable that we would base so 
     much of our public debate about employment on surveys that 
     likely exclude several million employed workers in the United 
     States. It may be leading us into a number of erroneous and 
     expensive policy decisions.
       I would be very grateful if you could examine this question 
     in depth and give me an opportunity to talk with you about 
     your conclusions. I am also making the same request of the 
     Bureau of Labor Statistics.
       Thank you very much.
           Very best wishes,
                                                  Lamar Alexander,
                                                     U.S. Senator.

  Mr. ALEXANDER. I suggest the absence of a quorum.
  The ACTING PRESIDENT pro tempore. The clerk will call the roll.
  The assistant legislative clerk proceeded to call the roll.
  Mr. GRASSLEY. Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that the order 
for the quorum call be rescinded.
  The ACTING PRESIDENT pro tempore. Without objection, it is so 
ordered.

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