[Congressional Record Volume 149, Number 73 (Thursday, May 15, 2003)]
[House]
[Page H4173]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]




               MOTIVATING CHINA--JAPAN'S NUCLEAR OPTIONS

  The SPEAKER pro tempore. Under a previous order of the House, the 
gentleman from Illinois (Mr. Kirk) is recognized for 5 minutes.
  Mr. KIRK. Mr. Speaker, on the departure of the South Korean 
President, we have to look at the North Korean situation with new eyes. 
I think it is clear that U.S. pressure on North Korea will not be 
effective since North Korea is a very poor country under 50 years 
already of U.S. economic sanctions. There are few, if any, U.S. options 
to bring effective nonmilitary pressure to bear. It is also clear that 
the South Korean Government will not issue new effective pressure on 
North Korea. But Chinese pressure can be effective.
  China is the primary donor to North Korea, and despite cool 
relations, China supports North Korea to prevent a collapse. China so 
far has rejected pressure because it fears any pressure may hasten the 
very collapse of North Korea they intend to prevent. Therefore, finding 
a motivation for China to help generate effective pressure from North 
Korea is asking the question, what do the Chinese regard as worse than 
risking a North Korean collapse? And the answer is the potential of 
Japanese nuclear armament.
  Few of us have realized that Japan owns more plutonium than in the 
United States nuclear arsenal. Japan has a large nuclear power program. 
It is seeking to reduce its reliance on foreign uranium by recycling 
nuclear fuel that will make its plutonium stockpile grow even larger.
  Today Japan owns 38 tons of plutonium, 5 tons located in the country 
and 33 tons at its European processors. That is enough for 7,000 
nuclear weapons. Japan is also accelerating its production of 
plutonium. Once the Rokkasho-mura reprocessing plant comes online in 
2005, Japan will be able to produce 100 tons of plutonium by 2015. 
North Korea recently complained in public about 206 kilos of missing 
plutonium from Japan's Tokai-mura facility.
  Japan is also rethinking its defense policy. Prime Minister Koizumi 
is leading efforts to expand Japan's defense role. Japan's self-defense 
force won Diet approval recently of purchasing long-range strike 
aircraft, including four 767 tankers; power projection, including the 
formation of an air brigade; and missile defense, including software, 
hardware and AEGIS class cruisers.
  Japan's perception of the North Korean threat is growing. North Korea 
shot a No Dong missile over Japanese territory in 1994. They shot a 
Taepo-dong missile over Japan in 1998. In December Japanese Coast Guard 
vessels clashed with North Korean spy boats.
  There is a nuclear debate beginning in Japan. In April, opposition 
leader Ichiro Ozawa openly discussed the nuclear option. In May, Chief 
Cabinet Secretary Fukuda generally hinted at revising defense doctrine. 
And last month, Defense Minister Ishiba stated Japan might 
conventionally strike North Korea first.
  Japan is also developing delivery vehicles. Japan's H-2 civilian 
rocket program is very advanced, and Japan is participating in missile 
defense focused on software, nose cones, infrared seekers, warheads and 
rocket motors.
  All of these facts should be shared at the highest level with 
Japanese leaders. We can help China to understand that if North Korea 
fully develops a nuclear arsenal, Japan may develop a deterrent.
  Japan's nuclear arsenal would quickly outpace China's. France's 
nuclear submarine costs just $13 billion and would be well within 
Japan's means. And Japan nuclear armament would encourage other Asian 
nations to also arm, even Taiwan.
  These facts should be shown to be clear that the Chinese should act 
clearly to diffuse the North Korea crisis.
  Article 9 of Japan's Constitution commits to no use of war to resolve 
international disputes. And it takes a two-thirds vote of both houses 
to amend the Constitution. Support for Article 9 in Japan now in the 
face of the North Korean threat is just 50/50. Japanese Prime Minister 
Sato formally studied a nuclear weapons program in 1967, and Japan 
would have to leave the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty that it 
ratified in 1977.
  Some have said the Japanese reactor-grade plutonium would not be 
fully usable, but the U.S. detonated a reactor-grade plutonium device 
in 1962, and in order to discourage other countries from using 
plutonium as a fuel, President Carter declassified data on the 
feasibility of a reactor-grade plutonium for nuclear weapons in 1976.
  We need to help China understand that other Asian nations maybe 
forced to develop a nuclear deterrent. To curb this crisis, China must 
act, otherwise there will be an historical reversal of power in Asia, 
something the Chinese should realize and seek to avoid.




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