[Congressional Record Volume 148, Number 8 (Wednesday, February 6, 2002)]
[Senate]
[Pages S397-S398]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
NEED FOR AN ECONOMIC STIMULUS PACKAGE
Mr. BYRD. Mr. President, over four months after the idea was
originally proposed, the Senate remains divided on an economic stimulus
package.
Much has changed since an economic stimulus was first proposed in
response to the September 11 attacks. Both the stock markets and the
economy have proved to be more resilient than economists had expected.
Moreover, there are signs, as Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan
told the Budget Committee last month, that some of the forces that have
been restraining the economy over the past year are starting to loosen
their strangle hold. The Fed Chairman told the Committee that ``while 3
months ago, [a stimulus package] was clearly a desirable action . . . I
do not think it is a critically important issue to do. I think the
economy will recover in any event.''
Aside from the positive economic data that have been released by
government agencies in recent weeks, there is already a significant
amount of stimulus in the pipelines.
That's not to say that we are home free. As Chairman Greenspan
pointed out last month, the economy could go either way at this point.
Most troubling is the higher unemployment rate since last year.
However, we must not delude ourselves into thinking that an economic
stimulus package--whether crafted by Democrats or Republicans--is some
sort of panacea. Stimulus packages can't work miracles. We have a $10
trillion economy. That's gross domestic product--the total of all
spending. We cannot flip the economy over like a pancake. A boost of
$70 billion to $100 billion would amount to less than 1 percent of GDP.
Nobody can say at this point with certainty in which direction the
economy is headed.
What we know is that, since the recession began last March, the Labor
Department reports that 1.8 million
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workers have lost their jobs. We could address this problem by
temporarily extending unemployment insurance.
What we do not know, is whether a more comprehensive stimulus package
at this point is really necessary.
I submit that the danger we face is not that the economy won't turn
around--inevitably it will--but that we may unnecessarily worsen our
budgetary position by taking unnecessary, but politically popular,
action on a so-called ``stimulus package.''
Any stimulus package, at least in the short-term, will increase the
projected budget deficits for fiscal years 2002 and 2003. We may well
need to devote more resources to our military overseas and to homeland
defense, and we will have to bear the costs of doing so.
The erosion in the budget picture over the past year, along with the
defense and homeland security demands placed on our budget and the
inevitable long-term Social Security and Medicare deficits
overshadowing the retirement of the baby-boomers, suggests that tough
choices must be made as to whether the limited dollars we spend will
provide a worthwhile return on our investment. From what we have seen
from experts ranging from the Federal Reserve Chairman, to
Congressional Budget Office officials, to private-sector economists, a
stimulus package does not meet that test.
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