[Congressional Record Volume 147, Number 171 (Tuesday, December 11, 2001)]
[House]
[Page H9085]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
SOCIAL SECURITY SOLVENCY
The SPEAKER pro tempore (Mr. Otter). Under the Speaker's announced
policy of January 3, 2001, the gentleman from Michigan (Mr. Smith) is
recognized during morning hour debates for 5 minutes.
Mr. SMITH of Michigan. Mr. Speaker, I just returned from the
Presidential Commission on Social Security meeting. This morning they
released their plan that they will be reviewing and presenting to the
President on the 21st of this month.
They presented three proposals. Earlier this year, I encouraged the
commission to come to agreement on one proposal. I am somewhat
concerned, with three proposals, that we end up bickering in this
Chamber about the advantages and disadvantages of each proposal and use
it as an excuse to do nothing. It would have been much better if the
commission had developed one proposal.
Briefly, the three proposals allow optional, worker owned
investments.
The first proposal allows an investment of 2 percent of our taxable
income and then offsets future Social Security benefits to the extent
and with the assumption that that investment in private accounts will
accumulate 3.5 percent return on investment. So they assume that that
is 3.5 percent, and deduct that compounded earnings value from future
benefits.
The second proposal allows 4 percent of taxable income, not to exceed
$1,000 a year, but provides that they are only assuming 2 percent
return on that proposal to determine reductions in future benefits.
Investments would be limited to safe investments, and all plans are
optional. Everything that our personal account would accrue above the 2
percent would be an increase in ultimate retirement benefits.
These plans are especially beneficial for those individuals under 40
years of age that have a period of time for the magic of compound
interest to work.
The third proposal is based on the premise that it is important to
resolve Social Security, but it is more important to keep promised
benefits. So it appears that it would take a tremendous amount of
financing from other sources other than the payroll tax to accommodate
that particular proposal.
Mr. Speaker, earlier this year I told the commission that I was
concerned that they must do a better job communicating to the American
people the predicament that Social Security now finds itself in. Social
Security is insolvent.
We know how many people there are and when they are going to retire.
We know that people will live longer in retirement. We know how much
they will pay in and how much they will take out. We also know that
payroll taxes will not cover benefits, starting in 2015, and that the
shortfalls will add up to $120 trillion in the 75 years following 2015.
Today's value of that shortfall is a little over $9 trillion. This
graph simply represents our short-term benefit, because we have been
increasing taxes, payroll taxes. Every time Social Security was in
trouble, we would increase the taxes. So in the short run, until 2015,
2016, 2017, someplace in those years, there is more money coming in
than we need. But after that, the red portion of this graph represents
the $120 trillion that will be needed in addition to Social Security
taxes. Something needs to be done if we are going to keep this most
important program secure and solvent.
A lot of people have said that the economic growth will fix Social
Security. That is not true, because as wages increase, so do the
benefits. So increasing the economy of this country with more jobs and
more benefits in the long run simply results in a greater requirement
for payouts. When the economy grows, workers pay more in taxes, but
they are going to get it out. Growth makes the number look better now,
but leaves a larger hole later.
I think this Social Security Commission has done a service by at
least laying out three proposals, all of which eventually will add to
the solvency of Social Security. The question is, do we want to allow
some privately owned account for private investments?
This is a graph that I made up just to show what has happened in the
last 100 years in terms of the returns of stock investments. We see the
ups and downs, but the average over the last 100 years is 6.7 percent.
That compares to about 1.7 percent that the average retiree is going to
receive as a return on the money they and their employer put into
Social Security for them.
So, that is the problem: there is not a very good return on your
Social Security taxes. It is not a good investment. Everybody, on
average, that is working now and paying in can expect at retirement
time the equivalent of a 1.7 percent return.
I would like to conclude by congratulating the commission for their
work. I will help increase a understanding by the American people that
there is a huge problem. We have come a long way since my first Social
Security bill in 1994. I hope this report is the kind of stimulus and
catalyst that will allow this Chamber to move forward to assure that we
save Social Security.
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