[Congressional Record Volume 147, Number 150 (Friday, November 2, 2001)]
[Senate]
[Pages S11408-S11411]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
ECONOMIC STIMULUS
Mr. CORZINE. Madam President, today I rise to discuss a critical need
for our Nation to unite in what I think is an immediate effort to
strengthen our economy. This morning you probably saw that our Nation's
unemployment rate jumped a full half of 1 percent to 5.4 percent--one
of the largest increases in any given month in history. We lost 415,000
jobs over the last month. Within that context, there are many more
layoffs in the offing, that have been announced by companies, yet to be
executed.
GDP has declined. Consumer prices, actually, within the GDP numbers,
declined for one of the first times since the 1950s. Manufacturing
indices and other statistics indicate that we are in a recession.
Over 40 years ago, the brother of the distinguished Senator from
Massachusetts, President John Kennedy, issued a dramatic and now
immortalized challenge to all Americans. He said: ``Ask not what your
country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country.''
We are now having a debate about an economic stimulus program, about
the state of our economy, and what we should do next. Four decades
later, it is again time to ask Americans to come to the support of our
country in a practical sense. This is particularly true for those of us
in the Congress.
Today, we have not one but two great challenges. First, of course, we
need to win the war against terrorism at home and abroad. To this end,
we are remarkably united. Most Americans are on the same page in
responding to the Nation's needs.
But at the same time, we need to reinvigorate our slumping economy,
an economy profoundly impacted by the cowardly acts of September 11,
and the subsequent uncertainty surrounding bioterrorism events. Here
America's response is not quite so clear. To this challenge, we still
appear focused on something more than the Nation's real needs.
Let me be clear: My views of stimulus are premised on the near
certainty that we are in the midst of a serious national recession and
I think also, importantly, a global one. Increasingly, we see our
neighbors across the globe suffering from much of the same kind of
weakness we see in America. This view is shared by most economic
analysts and political leaders. Today's report only reinforces that
view.
For all of us, the primary risks from this point forward are how
deep, how much further will this economic erosion go? The signs,
statistically and anecdotally, are everywhere that this will be a long
and deep slowdown.
Therefore, we need an immediate and substantial fiscal response. We
need an insurance policy, and we need to put it in place now.
I agree with what the President says: It is time for us to go to
work. The question is, How should we organize that work?
This economic challenge will require the same type of bipartisan
cooperation, the same sense of resolve, the same sense of national
unity that we have enjoyed in the war effort. In truth, that should not
be all that hard. After all, when it comes to designing an economic
stimulus package there is broad consensus among economists about the
principles we should follow. Chairman Greenspan agrees. Bob Rubin
agrees. And the chairs and ranking members of the Senate and House
Budget Committees--Democrat and Republican alike--agree. We should
follow those straightforward principles and get on with working out the
details. This should not be a political argument but an objective
pursuit of the most certain actions to reinvigorate our economy.
In the short term, we need actions that quickly generate real
economic activity, real economic growth. For the long term, we need
actions that promote fiscal discipline. It is a simple formula, very
simple: Short-term stimulus, long-term discipline.
It should not be that hard if we are willing to move beyond
ideological debates and special interests. In fact, as I have said,
there is a fairly broad consensus among economists about how to
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achieve these goals. For example, to maintain fiscal discipline, any
stimulus package should include items where costs are primarily
temporary; otherwise, the incremental benefit of new spending or tax
cuts could be more than offset by higher interest rates which undermine
housing, business investment, all kinds of activity in the real
economy.
Permanent tax or spending programs undermine our long-term fiscal
health. And we already face a serious erosion in our budget baseline
and long-run risks because of the demographic sea change that is coming
in the next decade.
Another point that would be obvious to most economists is that
targeting benefits to those with modest incomes will be more powerful
in stimulating the economy than benefits targeted to those with high
incomes. This isn't a matter of ideology or politics; it is really just
common sense. It is basic economics, particularly in the short run.
People with lower incomes have an objectively measurable higher
marginal propensity to consume.
If we give a dollar to those who are stretched financially, they are
likely to spend it. By contrast, if we give a dollar to those with
significant wealth and assets, they are likely to save it, particularly
in uncertain times. So if we want to generate economic activity now--
the whole point of a stimulus package--the most efficient approach is
to target aid to those who need it most.
There are several ways to offer tax breaks for those with modest
incomes. Frankly, I am skeptical about the policy that seems most
popular in Washington--maybe on both sides of the aisle--and that is
giving out rebates.
Most economists will tell you that one-time rebates do not work that
well because people tend to save their checks, unless they are
unemployed. This certainly was the case this summer when only 20 cents
on the dollar was spent of the first round of rebates. That is not
getting much bang for our buck, but it is consistent with past
experience. And I think it should guide us today as we put together our
stimulus package.
Clearly, there are more effective ways to stimulate the economy and
benefit those with low and moderate incomes. I think the principle
ought to be: How do you get one dollar of benefit flowing from one
dollar of tax activity?
In my view, a better approach would be to reduce payroll taxes for a
short period, perhaps a year or two--what I would call a payroll tax
holiday, or a partial holiday. This would target working Americans and
promote needed consumption by increasing take-home pay. And we should
offset any reductions in trust fund revenues with a commitment to
replenish those funds from the general fund once the economy gets back
on track and budget surpluses return.
Changing a person's income stream over a period of time changes how
they think about their spending patterns and what their budgets are
about. It tends to lead to greater expenditures than one-time shots.
Similarly, we could expand the 10-percent rate bracket to apply to a
wider range of incomes. Right now we stop it at $12,000 for a married
couple. I think we should move it up to $20,000. This also would
increase take-home pay for a broad range of low- and moderate- and
middle-income families, and would provide the kind of stimulus that
would change how people budget. Senator Bob Graham and I have advocated
this change since the first of this year, and I think it is an idea
that still should fit in a stimulus package. At a minimum, we could
bring forward the full 10-percent bracket that still has some facets
yet to be implemented.
Another way to stimulate consumption would be to establish a sales
tax holiday, as some of my colleagues have proposed. This approach has
a lot of merit and could be effective in promoting economic activity--
again: one dollar of expenditure will lead to one dollar of activity--
if it is limited to a short duration, and if we can overcome the
significant administrative hurdles and uneven application of sales
taxes across the Nation. Certainly, sales taxes weigh most heavily on
low- and moderate-income Americans. In fact, I think sales taxes define
the idea of regressive taxation.
Beyond providing tax cuts for those who have modest incomes, most
economists would tell you that to inject money into the economy most
rapidly, the best approach--contrary to a lot of political hype--is for
Government to spend money directly, as long as we are able to implement
such plans quickly. Can we get the shovel in the ground in the short
run or are we going to have debates? Are we going to have long-term
planning? If we could, we could get the real bang for our buck: one
dollar spent, having real stimulus in the economy now. I especially
think this is a far more attractive way to stimulate the economy than
having additional tax cuts for the wealthy--sort of a trickle-down
view. Savings is an admirable process for the long-term objective. It
leads to growth in the capacity of the economy. But we have a shortrun
need, with a very weak economy today. Programs that will promote
savings over some long period of time will not strengthen our economy
today. It can really run contrary to what we need to accomplish today--
stimulus. The Government can make, though, investments that can put
money into the economy immediately.
Unlike a dollar in tax cuts, a dollar of investment, as I said, can
yield a full dollar's worth of economic activity now. If those
investments are wisely targeted, they can also expand America's long-
term capacity and productivity and have a multiplier effect, if you
will, through job creation through the exporting and purchases that are
necessary to implement the programs. A very straightforward, simple
concept is that if we put money into the economy, it will generate jobs
and generate activity and lead to growth in the economy. We need to do
that.
If you look at the productivity growth of America after we
implemented our national highway program in the 1950s, we went on for
about 20 years and we had the highest productivity rates at any time in
America's history other than in the last 5 years. So there is no
automatic correlation of Government spending leading to a decline in
productivity or growth in the economy. We had one of the healthiest
periods in our history, and I think we need to follow that concept in
the current environment.
These investments can be made to happen quickly. They can be
implemented quickly. If we ask our young men and women to stand tall in
Afghanistan, if we want to celebrate the heroism of our first
responders climbing the stairs in the World Trade Center, we also ought
to get it together so that we can move quickly on those investments,
those actions that will benefit our Nation now.
There are many ways to use Government spending to stimulate the
economy. The most important in today's wartime environment is to make
investments that increase our Nation's security, particularly our
homeland security. We need to make a major commitment to fight
bioterrorism by strengthening our public health system, buying
vaccines, and investing in laboratory testing and research. We need to
beef up security for our Nation's airports, rail systems, and ports. We
need to provide substantial new resources to our law enforcement
agencies and our firefighters. There has been a bill circulating in
Congress for the last 4 years called the FIRE bill--$3.5 billion worth
of requests for fire equipment for our Nation's first responders. And
we have appropriated a mere $100 million once in that period of time.
There are enormous needs for us to follow. In New Jersey, we have
literally hundreds of millions of dollars of requests for resources in
these public security, public safety, public health arenas. Let me be
clear. These are not porkbarrel projects. They meet real needs and
serve the public beyond the current economic situation. So we are not
only stimulating the economy today, but we are setting up a stronger
society for a long period of time to come; and these are investments,
just as investments in the private sector, and can have high rates of
return. We can have high rates of return in public sector investment. I
think we need to do that.
I commend the distinguished Senator from West Virginia, Mr. Byrd, and
the distinguished assistant majority leader, Senator Harry Reid, for
their leadership in putting together a package of investments that
ought to be a part of any stimulus program. Frankly, I
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think it ought to be a bigger part. Their proposal provides for $1.6
billion for local police and firefighters, $1.7 billion for Federal law
enforcement, $2.4 billion for airport, mass transit, and Amtrak
security, and additional funds for nutrition and other programs.
In fact, I personally really do believe we should have gone larger
with that program. I might have slightly rearranged it. But this is the
direction we should be taking as a nation if we want to make sure we
stimulate our economy now and provide for the public safety and
security. This initiative will provide that real stimulus, and I hope
we all will come together on this program and get out of this dogma of
complaining and denigrating the idea that public investment doesn't
have real public return. These dollars can be spent now, and they can
be spent on very important projects that will serve our Nation.
Beyond the types of investments proposed by Senators Byrd and Reid,
another effective way to use Government spending to boost the economy
would be to expand our system of unemployment insurance. For example,
many States now fail to provide benefits for those seeking part-time
work, such as working mothers who need to spend part of their days with
their children. Today's unemployment report shows that over the
last year, those who work part time have lost those opportunities. It
has grown to over a million persons, most of whom are women. This
discrimination against working moms, by leaving them out of the
unemployment system, is both bad social policy and foolish economic
policy. We ought to do something about it.
Similarly, we should increase the level of unemployment benefits if
we want to make sure that those who are temporarily out of the job
force have the ability to continue to function. The unemployed are
almost certain to spend money we offer them. Again, $1 expended gets $1
of input into the economy. So beefing up their benefits is just good
stimulative economic policy. This is where we should be helping out,
not focusing on those who have already done well and are well situated
in the economy.
Unemployment expenditures also have the advantage of when the economy
grows, they go away; they are temporary. They meet a need, but when
they are no longer necessary because people go back to work, they end.
We really should be focusing on making sure that our unemployment
compensation system is updated for the 21st century, brings more folks
in and is more appropriate for the circumstances of today. It is a real
stimulus program. We have supported corporate America through any
number of tax and safety net programs. It is time to focus on people.
Under current circumstances, this is a classic win-win.
Another way to use Government spending to improve the economy is to
help the unemployed, or other Americans, afford health care. That is
why I support proposals to increase support for those who lose their
jobs and who should buy health care through COBRA extension also. It is
good health care policy and good economics. It will certainly avoid the
runup of expenditures on uninsured at hospitals, charity care that will
follow if we don't have these systems in place.
After all, when people lose their jobs, they should not be forced to
choose between basic needs such as housing, education, health care, and
senior support at home. They should confidently be seeking future
employment, and this program should be robust, in my mind. I believe
strongly that we ought to be offering a 75-percent payment in support
of COBRA premiums. Again, this is money spent today that goes into the
economy and will be stimulative as we go forward.
Beyond tax cuts for those with modest incomes, and direct Government
spending--and I see the two leaders of that concept on the floor today,
and I want to make sure they know I compliment them on their
suggestions--there are tax breaks for businesses that can help,
provided that they are well-designed and they produce an immediate
corporate response.
In particular, I support providing tax credits to encourage
businesses to make investments in the short-term. Recently, Bill Gale
of the Brookings Institution suggested that we provide the most
benefits to those who make such investments in the very short term--
say, by the end of the first quarter of 2002--and then gradually phase
out the benefits over the remainder of the year. This is a very simple
concept. If you are going to have a sale, you want to encourage people
to use it now. I think this makes great sense.
It is an encouragement to businesses to speed up investments in the
public sector. It would target benefits to many businesses that already
have plans on the table. They are just holding them off because of the
uncertainty of the environment and the times.
I also make clear that this is a one-time benefit and would reduce
political pressure to turn the Tax Code into a permanent support
program that may be unneeded in the long run.
The final approach to economic stimulus I want to mention is the
critical need to address the fiscal problems facing our States. There
is an article in the paper today that shows across this Nation our
States are moving into budget deficits, maybe out of poor economic
planning, but the reality is that many of the steps they will be taking
can be countervailing to the steps we may take at the Federal level.
It does no good if the Federal Government provides significant
stimulus and the States move in just the opposite direction; they
offset each other. We may very well be moving into one of those
situations.
Unfortunately, because of the rigid balanced budget requirements,
many States are looking at significant spending cuts and/or tax
increases. We need to consider ways to prevent this conundrum.
I would support establishing targeted revenue sharing to States in
need--and I do mean targeted--so that this money is not used for
further tax cuts. They would be serving the particular needs that
Congress may have mandated in other areas, and we ought to be very
clear about it.
Ideally, such a system could work both ways: Shifting money to States
during times of economic slowdown and shifting money back during
periods of economic growth.
Having said that, given the need to act quickly, it may be the more
practical way of accomplishing this is through the Medicaid match
provided to the States. This would use an existing regulatory structure
and could be implemented very rapidly where a revenue-sharing program
might take longer to be implemented.
In any case, we cannot ignore this conflict that may very well negate
the efforts we take here and having the States be a drag on our economy
just when we need most to lift up the economy.
All the proposals I have outlined today would provide real help to
our economy, and most economists would agree, I believe, we should
structure a program that errs on the side of being aggressive as
opposed to wondering whether we are dealing with serious downside
risks.
We need an insurance program against the kinds of actions that we
measure, that were reported today in the unemployment statistics, and
we see across the Nation. I believe we ought to make our mistakes by
being certain that we have a strong economy, as opposed to being
insecure about that. I hope we will take that into consideration, and
if there are choices to be made, I believe we ought to do those on the
stimulative side now.
While I believe we should pursue those stimulative short-term
policies, we should take affirmative steps to address fiscal imbalances
in the long term--again, the basic formula I talked about: short-term
stimulus, long-term discipline. In particular, it is critical that we
revisit--and I truly believe we must revisit--the tax cut that was
enacted earlier this year. If left fully in place, this legislation
will drain significant revenue from the Treasury and, in the long-term
context, substantially weaken our financial condition just as the baby
boomers are about to retire.
I know many of my colleagues believe these tax cuts were affordable
when we debated them earlier this year. We can have a debate about
whether they were or were not at that point in time, but the times have
changed and they have changed dramatically. We now face a substantially
weakened economy, dramatically lower productivity in our economy, and
huge
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costs for a long-term war against terrorism.
Given these changed conditions, I hope some of my colleagues will
reconsider their views on the full tax-cut package and recognize the
need to suspend some of the provisions that are set to be implemented
in the future.
By the way, 65 percent of those cuts come after year 5 because, as
most economists would agree, maintaining fiscal discipline in the long
term is just as important as stimulating the economy in the shortrun.
Unfortunately, while there is broad, if not universal, consensus
among economists about the principles that should guide fiscal policy,
many in Washington think they know better, and they are pushing
proposals that, in my mind, simply make no sense and really do
challenge whether we are all working together in an economic sense to
strengthen this country the way we are working in our war on terrorism.
The House of Representatives and Senate Republicans are promoting a
stimulus package that would do very little to immediately stimulate the
economy. The House and Senate Republican bills masquerade the stimulus,
but they are both little more than an ideological repetition of
programs designed to help those who need it least and favor special
interests--a giveaway with limited economic benefits.
According to an analysis by the nonpartisan Center on Budget and
Policy Priorities, the House bill would provide between 80 and 90
percent of its tax cuts to higher income taxpayers and corporations. It
is just the opposite of how we get stimulus into the economy today.
The bill eliminates the corporate alternative minimum tax, or AMT.
AMT is designed to prevent corporations from avoiding taxes entirely
through the use of deductions and various other tax benefits. Repealing
the AMT will not generate real economic activity. There is no guarantee
it will do anything other than change the bottom line of the
corporations.
Many corporations may well apply some of these savings to reducing
debts, mergers, acquisitions, or increasing their bottom line, but
there is no guarantee they will invest. That might benefit the
shareholders, but it will not stimulate the economy.
The House and Senate Republican bills would also reduce capital gains
taxes. Reasonable people can and do disagree about the effect of such a
reduction on long-term economic growth but, regardless of one's view
about the ultimate merits of reducing capital gains taxes, I do not
know a single economist who would argue that it is a powerful way to
stimulate economic activity in the short term, at least compared with
any of the other possible approaches.
This same analysis applies to other provisions in the House and
Senate Republican bills. It would accelerate a reduction in tax rates
for those with higher incomes, just the opposite of where we should be
for our long-term economic stability. We need to focus on how we are
going to manage our fiscal affairs when these baby boomers start
retiring.
Accelerating a reduction in tax rates is going to exacerbate a
problem we already put in place with this previous tax cut.
In any case, regardless of one's view about the merits of cutting
taxes for those with higher incomes, it is simply not credible to argue
that of all the possible approaches to stimulating the economy, these
are the most beneficial, and one cannot argue these are the most
powerful. Such a claim is just not credible and does not relate to
objective facts.
I also emphasize the provisions in the House bill are not temporary
measures; they are permanent tax cuts with huge long-term costs, just
exactly what the budget chairmen in both Houses and the ranking members
argued we should not do, and as such they undermine the fiscal
discipline and almost certainly will put pressure on long-term interest
rates over some period of time.
I have spent most of my life as a business person and as a bond
trader, someone who worked in financial markets looking at these kinds
of policies as they worked their way through the marketplace. I can
assure my colleagues that fiscally irresponsible tax cuts, such as the
ones that are on the table in the House of Representatives, will affect
investors and will undermine the long-term health of our financial
system, if not our economic system broadly. The end result will be
higher mortgage rates, less business investment, and a weaker economy.
Meanwhile, the House stimulus bill puts very little money into the
economy directly.
There is no investment in our infrastructure, no investment in our
Nation's security, only tax cuts for those who are already doing well--
mostly for corporations and mostly for those that are doing well.
To be blunt about it, I think this is wrong-headed economic policy.
Perhaps because of my private sector background, I find it especially
alarming.
Our Nation faces an economic emergency. We need to be addressing it
in an objective and legitimate way so we do not turn our backs on a
need that is very obvious to everyone and get into political debates.
We need to deal with it directly.
I think we are fiddling while Rome is burning. We simply cannot
afford to continue business as usual. We have to pull things together,
minimize differences and focus on what is important to get the job
done. Our economy is at stake. We are all in this together. We cannot
let the events of September 11 get us off the track of this great
Nation, this great economy-- doing those things which were done
throughout the 1990s and continued as we started this century.
We need to move with a bipartisan, objective package that will lead
to real economic growth, and we need to do it now.
I suggest the absence of a quorum.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. The clerk will call the roll.
The bill clerk proceeded to call the roll.
Mr. REID. Madam President, I ask unanimous consent that the order for
the quorum call be rescinded.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. Without objection, it is so ordered.
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