[Congressional Record Volume 147, Number 29 (Wednesday, March 7, 2001)]
[Senate]
[Page S2013]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]




   SENATE CONCURRENT RESOLUTION 21--TO EXPRESS THE SENSE OF CONGRESS 
REGARDING THE USE OF A LEGISLATIVE ``TRIGGER'' OR ``SAFETY'' MECHANISM 
    TO LINK LONG-TERM FEDERAL BUDGET SURPLUS REDUCTIONS WITH ACTUAL 
                           BUDGETARY OUTCOMES

  Ms. SNOWE (for herself, Mr. Bayh, Mr. Chafee, Ms. Landrieu, Ms. 
Collins, Mrs. Feinstein, Mr. Jeffords, Mr. Torricelli, Mr. Specter, Mr. 
Carper, and Ms. Stabenow) submitted the following concurrent 
resolution; which was referred to the Committee on Governmental Affairs 
and the Committee on the Budget, jointly, pursuant to the order of 
August 4, 1977, with instructions that if one Committee reports, the 
other Committee have thirty days to report or be discharged:

                            S. Con. Res. 21

       Whereas the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has projected 
     that the Federal unified budget surplus over the 10-year 
     period from fiscal year 2002 to fiscal year 2011 will total 
     $5,610,000,000,000;
       Whereas the projected Federal on-budget surplus over the 
     same period of time is projected to be $3,122,000,000,000, 
     which includes a surplus for the medicare program in the 
     Federal Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund of 
     $392,000,000,000;
       Whereas the projected surplus provides Congress with an 
     opportunity to address a variety of pressing national needs, 
     including Federal debt reduction, tax relief, and increased 
     investment in the shared priorities of the American people, 
     such as national defense, science, health, education, 
     retirement security, and other areas;
       Whereas although CBO projections properly serve as the 
     basis for budgetary policies in Congress, actual economic and 
     fiscal outcomes may differ substantially from projections;
       Whereas for example, as CBO indicates in its January 2001 
     budget update, if the future record is like the past, there 
     is about a 50 percent chance that errors in the assumptions 
     about economic and technical factors will cause CBO's 
     projection of the annual surplus 5 years ahead to miss the 
     actual outcome by more than 1.8 percent of the Gross Domestic 
     Product, with a resulting difference in the surplus estimate 
     of $245,000,000,000 in the fifth year alone;
       Whereas where appropriate, long-term changes to tax and 
     spending policy that are predicated on the existence of 
     significant budget surpluses should be linked to actual 
     fiscal performance, such as meeting specified debt reduction 
     or on-budget surplus targets, to ensure the Federal 
     Government does not incur on-budget deficits or increase the 
     publicly-held debt;
       Whereas during his testimony before the Senate Budget 
     Committee on January 25, 2001, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan 
     Greenspan stated, ``In recognition of the uncertainties in 
     the economic and budget outlook, it is important that any 
     long-term tax plan, or spending initiative for that matter, 
     be phased in. Conceivably, it could include provisions that, 
     in some way, would limit surplus-reducing actions if 
     specified targets for the budget surplus and Federal debt 
     were not satisfied. Only if the probability was very low that 
     prospective tax cuts or new outlay initiatives would send the 
     on-budget accounts into deficit, would unconditional 
     initiatives appear prudent'', and he reiterated this 
     testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on February 13, 
     2001; and
       Whereas in light of Chairman Greenspan's testimony and the 
     uncertainty of surplus projections, while Members of Congress 
     agree that the resources are available to address many 
     pressing national needs in the 107th Congress, Congress 
     should exercise great caution and not pass tax cuts or 
     spending increases that are so large that they will 
     necessitate future tax increases or significant spending cuts 
     if anticipated budget surpluses fail to materialize: Now, 
     therefore, be it
       Resolved by the Senate (the House of Representatives 
     concurring), That it is the sense of Congress that--
       (1) with respect to any long-term, Federal surplus-reducing 
     actions adopted by the 107th Congress pursuant to the 
     Congressional Budget Office's projected surpluses, such 
     actions shall include a legislative ``trigger'' or ``safety'' 
     mechanism that links the phase-in of such actions to actual 
     budgetary outcomes over the next 10 fiscal years;
       (2) this legislative ``trigger'' or ``safety'' mechanism 
     shall outline specific legislative or automatic action that 
     shall be taken should specified levels of Federal debt 
     reduction or on-budget surpluses not be realized, in order to 
     maintain fiscal discipline and continue the reduction of our 
     national debt;
       (3) the legislative ``trigger'' or ``safety'' mechanism 
     shall be applied prospectively and not repeal or cancel any 
     previously implemented portion of a surplus-reducing action;
       (4) enactment of a legislative ``trigger'' or ``safety'' 
     mechanism shall not prevent Congress from passing other 
     legislation affecting the level of Federal revenues or 
     spending should future economic performance dictate such 
     action; and
       (5) this legislative ``trigger'' or ``safety'' mechanism 
     will ensure fiscal discipline because it restrains both 
     Government spending and tax cuts, by requiring that the 
     budget is balanced and that specified debt reduction targets 
     are met.

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