[Congressional Record Volume 147, Number 29 (Wednesday, March 7, 2001)]
[House]
[Page H657]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]




                              {time}  1030
        EVEN CBO SAYS IT WOULD NOT BET ON ITS OWN BUDGET NUMBERS

  (Mr. HILL asked and was given permission to address the House for 1 
minute and to revise and extend his remarks.)
  Mr. HILL. Mr. Speaker, introducing a trillion dollar tax bill without 
a budget framework is like going to the racetrack and putting all your 
money on the long shot. The leaders of this House only win their wager 
if the Congressional Budget Office's surplus projections are accurate 
for the next 10 years, but even CBO says it would not bet on its own 
budget numbers. CBO says its surplus estimate for the next year has a 
50 percent chance of being wrong by more than $97 billion. For years 6 
through 10, CBO says the odds are even longer. This is a big problem, 
because two-thirds of the $5.6 trillion surplus are supposed to 
materialize in years 6 through 10.
  Mr. Speaker, almost 20 years ago Congress made another gamble on the 
projected budget surpluses and it lost. That is exactly the way then-
Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker described the 1981 tax cut. He 
called it a riverboat gamble.
  We lost enough money on that bet. Let us pass a budget resolution 
before we take up tax and spending bills.

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