[Congressional Record Volume 147, Number 6 (Saturday, January 20, 2001)]
[House]
[Pages H65-H67]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]




  FY 2002 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK--MESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED 
                       STATES (H. DOC. NO. 107-4)

  The SPEAKER laid before the House the following message from the 
President of the United States; which was read and, together with the 
accompanying papers, without objection, referred to the Committee on 
Appropriations and ordered to be printed.

To the Congress of the United States:
  I am pleased to submit my FY 2002 Economic Outlook, Highlights from 
FY 1994 to FY 2001, FY 2002 Baseline Projections. For the benefit of 
the new Administration and the public, this document includes an 
economic overview, a technical presentation of current services 
projections, a programmatic review of the Federal Government that 
details my Administration's actions over the last eight years, and 
pending policy proposals that I believe should be the starting point 
for a new Administration.


                          The Outlook in 1993

  To appreciate what we have accomplished in the past eight years, we 
must take stock of where we were in 1993. When I took office in 1993, 
economic growth had averaged only 1.7 percent in the four previous 
years. In

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1992, unemployment surged to 7.8 percent. In 1992, the budget deficit 
was $290 billion, the largest in the history of our Nation. The debt 
held by the public quadrupled between 1980 and 1992 and threatened to 
keep mounting. The deficit was projected to reach $390 billion by 1998 
and $639 billion by 2003.
  I believed that by exercising fiscal responsibility and making 
strategic investments in our future, we could reverse this trend and 
spur the economy to robust growth. Eight years later, with deficits 
turned to surplus, with the mountain of debt receding, and with 
sustained economic growth at record level, we can say that we were able 
to achieve this goal through a steadfast commitment to fiscal 
discipline.


                        The Clinton-Gore Record

  Over the eight years of my Administration, our total deficit 
reduction totals $1.2 trillion, more than double our original 
estimates. We have experienced four straight years of surplus, a 
stretch of prosperity last seen following World War I. For three years 
in a row, we have actually been able to pay off $363 billion of this 
debt and expect to pay off $600 billion by the end of this year. With a 
sustained commitment to fiscal discipline by continuing to use the 
surplus to pay down the debt, this Nation can be fully debt-free in 
this decade for the first time since 1835. We can eliminate the 
publicly held debt by the end of the decade and, by doing so, we can 
strengthen our economy and our Nation's prospects for the future.
  FY 2002 Economic Outlook, Highlights from FY 1994 to FY 2001, FY 2002 
Baseline Projections continue to project that the Federal budget will 
remain in surplus for many decades to come, if a responsible fiscal 
policy prevails and realistic assumptions and projections are used.
  The Federal Government must continue to meet the needs of the 
American people in a Nation with a growing economy and a growing 
population. We take for granted the need to maintain critical functions 
like air traffic safety, law enforcement, the administration of Social 
Security and Medicare, and national security--both defense and 
diplomacy. Because I firmly believe that the American people demand and 
deserve a Government that meets their needs, this document reflects the 
progress we have made in serving the American people. These 
accomplishments include:
   Improving education, with initiatives focusing on 
accountability and school-system reforms; increased funding for Pell 
Grants and Work-Study Programs; and, initiatives to reduce class size, 
establish after-school programs, improve reading ability, expand 
mentoring and education technology, and renovate crumbling schools. The 
results are significant. For example, 29,000 teachers have been hired, 
on our way to the goal of hiring 100,000 new teachers to reduce class 
size, and there has been a six-fold increase in the number of title I 
elementary schools with after-school programs. We have doubled funding 
for Head Start, and increased funding for higher education programs--
the biggest increase since the G.I. Bill.

   Rewarding work and ``ending welfare as we know it,'' with 
incentives to States for moving welfare recipients into jobs, 
encouraging businesses to hire people from welfare rolls, expanding the 
Earned Income Tax Credit, tripling funding for dislocated worker 
training, and increasing funding for child care. Since January 1993, 
the welfare rolls have decreased from 14.1 million to 6.3 million, the 
fewest number of people on welfare since 1968.
   Making Social Security solvency a national priority, with 
the challenge to ``save Social Security first,'' ensuring that Social 
Security funds are used to pay for Social Security and strengthen our 
economic health.
   Achieving the longest Medicare Trust Fund solvency in a 
quarter century while improving Medicare's benefits.
   Reversing the increase in the number of uninsured Americans 
through the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) and other 
policies. Over 3.3 million children have received health insurance 
through the CHIP.
   Setting the highest level of environmental standards ever. 
More land in the lower 48 States has been protected under the 
Antiquities Act than by any other Administration; 58.5 million acres of 
national forest will be protected from road building and logging; 
unprecedented legislation will provide $12 billion over six years in 
dedicated funding for the conservation of America's land and coastal 
resources; climate change and clean water funding was increased; and, 
efforts to fight budget riders that would have sacrificed hard-won 
environmental safeguards to special-interests succeeded.
   Increasing investments in science and technology, as the 
keys to economic growth. Funding for medical research at the National 
Institutes of Health doubled, allowing for breakthroughs such as the 
complete sequencing of the human genome and new therapies to prevent 
breast cancer.
   Securing funding to hire over 100,000 additional community 
police officers, making our streets safer. My Administration's 
initiatives to reduce crime contributed to the lowest annual serious 
crime count since 1985.
   Giving Americans confidence that when natural disasters 
occur, such as the Northridge Earthquake, Hurricane Floyd, and the 
Midwest Floods, their Government will help them return to prosperity.
   Implementing the Uruguay Round, the North American Free 
Trade Agreement, and other major agreements, to liberalize trade and 
financial markets, aid construction of a new global economic 
architecture, and promote growth.
   Fighting transnational threats, such as HIV/AIDS, terrorism, 
and environmental destruction, as well as securing historic debt relief 
for countries in crisis and resources to fight child abuse at home and 
abroad.
   Improving the security of Americans at home and abroad, 
through increased funding for embassy security.
   Strengthening our national security by promoting stability 
in responding to natural disasters in Central America and Africa, as 
well as man-made crises in Kosovo, Bosnia, and Indonesia.
   Maintaining the Nation's security, with the best-equipped, 
best-trained, and best-prepared military in the world.
  This document also highlights the dramatic improvements in the 
management of the Federal Government we have made over the last eight 
years. We have used information technology to create a Government that 
is more accessible and responsive to citizens. The Federal Government 
has reinvented the way it buys goods and services, focusing on customer 
satisfaction and results. We have transformed the Federal financial 
management system. Eight years ago, only a few agencies routinely 
prepared and issued audited financial statements. Now virtually all 
agencies issue annual audited financial statements. More than half of 
the 24 largest agencies received clean audits in 1999. In addition, 
significant strides have been made to advance the transparency and 
underpinnings of the regulatory process and improve the Nation's 
statistics. These management functions are the essentials of 
governmental operations. Doing them very well rarely garners attention. 
Failing to do them can undermine program and policy effectiveness as 
certainly as bad policy decisions or inadequate program implementation.
  As the Nation looks to the future, there are several important areas 
where additional work is needed. Examples include:
   Providing prescription drug coverage for Medicare 
beneficiaries;
   Passing legislation to stiffen penalties for hate crimes;
   Ensuring equity for legal immigrants;
   Increasing the minimum wage to sport millions of working 
families;
   Providing a Medicaid buy-in option for children with 
disabilities in working families;
   Ensuring stability in the Middle East peace process;
   Increasing our embassy security;
   Funding diplomacy as an alternative to crises and violence;
   Striving to hire 100,000 new teachers to reduce class size;
   Helping school districts to obtain financing to construct 
and modernize schools; and,
   Expanding and improving the quality of the Head Start 
program.


                        My Hopes for the Nation

  This is a rare moment in American history. Never before has our 
Nation enjoyed so much prosperity, at a time

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when social progress continues to advance and our position as the 
global leader is secure. Today, we are well prepared to make the 
choices that will shape the future of our Nation for decades to come.
  By reversing the earlier trend of fiscal irresponsibility, using 
conservative economic estimates, balancing the budget, and producing an 
historic surplus, we have helped restore our national spirit and 
produced the resources to help opportunity and prosperity reach all 
corners of this Nation. We have it within our reach today, by making 
the right choices, to offer the promise of prosperity to generations of 
Americans to come. If we keep to the path of fiscal discipline, we can 
build a foundation of prosperity for the future of the Nation.
  Over the last eight years, I have sought to provide the fiscal 
discipline necessary to ensure the continuing growth of our economy 
while making essential investments in the future of our people--
especially those who are less fortunate. The results are evident. I 
present this document with pride in our accomplishments, and the hope 
that this progress will continue and grow for all Americans.
  In the past eight years, we have enjoyed extraordinary economic 
performance because our fiscal policy was responsible and sound. To 
continue the Nation's strong economic performance, we must maintain our 
commitment to a sound fiscal policy. Experience over the last twenty 
years clearly shows how periolous it is to create conditions for 
budgetary problems. We are now enjoying the benefits of a virtuous 
cycle of surplus and debt reduction and must not return to the vicious 
cycle of red ink.
  The challenge now, in this era of surplus, is to make balanced 
choices to use our resources to meet both the evident, pressing needs 
of today, and the more distant, but no less crucial, needs of 
generations to come.
                                                  William J. Clinton.  
January 16, 2001.

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