[Congressional Record Volume 146, Number 135 (Wednesday, October 25, 2000)]
[House]
[Pages H10879-H10880]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
SOCIAL SECURITY
The SPEAKER pro tempore. Under a previous order of the House, the
gentleman from Michigan (Mr. Smith) is recognized for 5 minutes.
Mr. SMITH of Michigan. Mr. Speaker, Social Security has really come
to light, so I am going to spend 5 minutes talking about Social
Security, the problem and the potential solution, and what the
presidential candidates are doing in their suggestions to help resolve
this serious problem of Social Security.
Mr. Speaker, I came into Congress in 1993; and I introduced my first
Social Security bill. I have introduced a Social Security bill every
session, and the last three were scored by the Social Security
Administration to keep Social Security solvent for the next 75 years.
I was selected to be chairman of the bipartisan task force on Social
Security. I have found it is sort of like an automobile mechanic, the
more the mechanic knows about the inside operations, probably the
better he lubricates and adds the oil and greases his car. I am
concerned, knowing some of the internal operations of Social Security,
that there is a lot of friction there, that it is not solvent.
Just briefly, insolvency is certain. We know how many people there
are. We know when they are going to retire. We know that people will
live longer in retirement. We know how much they are going to pay in
and how much they are going to take out. Payroll tax is not going to
cover the benefits starting in 2015. It is a pay-as-you-go program.
Current workers pay in their tax, and it is almost immediately sent out
to current retirees. It is going to take $120 trillion over and above
tax revenues over the next 75 years to accommodate the promises we have
made in Social Security.
Some have suggested that economic growth is great now, that that is
going to help solve the problem of Social Security. Not true. Social
Security benefits are indexed to wage growth. So the higher the wages,
the higher the benefits for everybody. When the economy grows, workers
pay more in taxes, but also they will earn more in benefits when they
retire. Growth makes the numbers look better now but leaves a larger
hole to fill later.
The administration has used these short-term advantages as an excuse
to do nothing. So if there is one criticism I would have it is the
missed opportunity over the last 8 years of not really stepping up to
the plate and fixing Social Security.
The Vice President has suggested that if we pay down the debt to the
public, the debt we owe to the public is $3.4 trillion, the suggestion
is that we use some of the Social Security surplus, pay down that debt,
and then apply another IOU, or use the interest savings on that debt to
help fix this big tall tower over here of $46.6 trillion. So the
suggestion is that by paying down the debt, we will solve this problem.
This next graph shows why that will not happen. The blue at the bottom
represents $260 billion a year that we are now paying in interest on
the debt.
So, look, it has to be a priority. Putting Social Security in the
lockbox was a great thing the Republicans did. This year saying that at
least 90 percent of the surplus has to go to pay down the debt was a
good idea. But even if all of the $260 billion every year for the next
57 years was used to go into the Social Security Trust Fund, there
would still be a shortfall of $35 trillion.
Look, this is a big-time problem. We have to do it now and not leave
a big mortgage for our kids.
Very briefly, the biggest risk is doing nothing at all. I want to
show these charts, because Al Gore has criticized Governor Bush of
taking a trillion dollars out of Social Security, or using it twice. He
is saying that the Governor is going to use it once to pay benefits and
once to start private investment accounts.
Over the next 10 years, the revenues coming in to the Social Security
Trust Fund are $7.8 trillion. The benefits, or the money going out, is
$5.4 trillion. That leaves a surplus of $2.4 trillion. Governor Bush is
suggesting we take $1 trillion of that and start using that to
accommodate personally owned retirement accounts that individuals own;
that if they die it goes into their estate, unlike Social Security, of
course.
So as we can see, having current medium-income workers retire much
[[Page H10880]]
wealthier by having this kind of magic that will develop with the magic
of compound interest is one way to increase retirement benefits and
save the system.
Some people have said it is too risky. I show this chart just because
this represents the up and down of a 30-year average. Over a 30-year
average for the last hundred years, the average income is 6.7 percent.
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