[Congressional Record Volume 144, Number 127 (Tuesday, September 22, 1998)]
[Senate]
[Pages S10704-S10712]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
CONSUMER BANKRUPTCY REFORM ACT OF 1998
The Senate continued with consideration of the bill.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. The pending business is the bankruptcy bill.
The Senator from Iowa.
Mr. GRASSLEY. Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent there be 2\1/2\
hours of debate equally divided on the Harkin amendment regarding
interest rates. I further ask that all debate time on the amendment be
consumed this evening and the amendment then be temporarily set aside.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. Is there objection?
Mr. HARKIN. I object.
Mr. President, I suggest the absence of a quorum.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. The clerk will call the roll.
The legislative clerk proceeded to call the roll.
Mr. HARKIN. Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that the order for
the quorum call be rescinded.
The PRESIDING OFFICER (Mr. Smith of Oregon). Without objection, it is
so ordered.
Mr. HARKIN. Mr. President, tomorrow I will be laying down a Sense of
the Congress amendment calling on the Federal Reserve to lower interest
rates as a preemptive strike against a recession in 1999. This is a
very crucial issue coming at this point in time. I am going to take
some time to speak about it and lay out why it is necessary for us, I
believe, to take this kind of action and to express ourselves.
The amendment I will be offering on behalf of myself and Senators
Dorgan, Conrad, Wellstone, Kerrey, and Bryan will urge the Federal Open
Market Committee to promptly reduce short-term interest rates as a
preemptive strike against a recession in 1999. One week from today, the
Federal Open Market Committee will meet to vote on interest rate
policy. That is why it is crucial that the Senate send a clear message
to the Fed: ``Lower interest rates now.''
Mr. President, if we want to significantly decrease the number of
bankruptcies in this country, one of the best ways to accomplish this
important goal is to reduce the risk of people losing their jobs.
With the chance of deflation and a recession rising, we need to lower
interest rates.
Over 2 years ago, against the conventional wisdom of the time, I took
to the floor of the Senate to speak and to openly put a hold on
Chairman Alan Greenspan's renomination to the Federal Reserve Board
until we had a debate on U.S. monetary policy.
One of the reasons I did this was to ensure that we had a significant
debate on the Fed's focus only on inflation to the exclusion of other
factors. I believed then, and I believe now, that it is wrong for the
Fed to maintain high real interest rates without any significant signs
of inflation threatening our country.
I believed at the time, and I continue to believe, that we should
lower interest rates, allow the economy to grow, and to provide a
maximum level of employment. Specifically, I said at the time that I
thought our economy could grow at least at a rate of 3.5 percent a year
for a number of consecutive years, with an expansion of the labor force
and improved productivity. I also argued that we could at the same time
have an unemployment rate of 4.5 percent a year without triggering a
significant level of inflation.
That is what I said 2 years ago. At the time, many economists and
economic writers took me to task on this, openly questioning my views.
Many of these economists believed in a theory--an economic theory--
which called NAIRU, which stands for the ``nonaccelerating inflationary
rate of unemployment.'' I will get to that and what it means in just a
moment.
But a couple of years ago, advocates of NAIRU, believed that if the
unemployment rate fell below a certain rate--at that time it was
somewhere between 5.5 and 6 percent--if the unemployment rate went
below that level, employers would have to significantly raise wages and
salaries igniting a 1970s style of inflation. And these economic
theorists believed that the Fed should raise interest rates as a
preemptive strike against inflation.
[[Page S10705]]
In other words, if unemployment ever fell to that level, regardless
of anything else, these economic theorists under this theory believed
that the Fed should raise interest rates right away to preempt any
inflation from occurring.
That is what the Fed has done in the past. They have raised interest
rates to a very high level.
But look where we are today. The unemployment rate currently is at
4.5 percent. It has been below 5 percent for nearly a year and a half,
and it has been under 6 percent for 4 years. And there is no inflation.
Our gross domestic product was 3.8 percent last year and 5.5 percent
during the first quarter of this year. During this time, inflation
hasn't gone up. In fact, it has gone down.
The rate has decreased to its lowest level since the 1960s during the
past 2 years.
To Chairman Greenspan's credit, he has recently distanced himself
from the view that there should be a preemptive increase in interest
rates, simply because of NAIRU. He has, through his actions at the Fed,
allowed our economy to grow and unemployment to fall without raising
interest rates.
So unemployment has fallen from 6, to 5.5, to 5, to 4.5 percent.
Under NAIRU, this would have triggered automatic increases in interest
rates, but under Mr. Greenspan they have not. And I applaud him for
that.
Unfortunately, many on the Federal Open Market Committee have
continued to push for higher interest rates even as the signs of an
economic slowdown in the United States continue. While they have not
succeeded in raising interest rates, they represent a major obstacle
against lowering interest rates, an action which is becoming
increasingly needed.
Real interest rates are at a historical high. Although the Federal
Open Market Committee has not directly raised interest rates since
March of 1997, real interest rates are rising. In fact, real interest
rates are at historically high levels, the highest in 9 years, because
inflation has continued to fall while the Federal Reserve has failed to
lower the Federal funds rate. The chart that I have here points that
out.
This chart shows, for example, the real Federal funds rate. That is
the market rate less the CPI percentage. As we can see, it has been,
for a short period--from 1996 to 1997--going up, and last year and this
year has gone up. Actually, this tick, it would be going up here again
over the last few weeks. So we have about 4 percent real Federal funds
rate right now. In fact, even Chairman Greenspan noted during his
Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on February 24 of this year:
Statistically it is a fact that real interest rates are
higher now than they have been on the average of the post-
World War II period.
That is a quote from Mr. Greenspan. It is a fact that real interest
rates are higher now than they have been on the average of the post-
World War II period. I ask why--why are real interest rates so high?
There is no inflation; no signs of inflation. In fact, the economy is
slowing down a little bit. We see some recessionary signs. Yet we still
have these high interest rates. The high interest rate policy that is
being imposed by the Federal Reserve, I have always said, is really a
stealth tax on hard-working American families, and I believe it is a
contributing factor to the near collapse of several economies
worldwide.
It is time for the FOMC, the Federal Open Market Committee, to
provide a significant and immediate cut in interest rates as a
preemptive strike against a recession in 1999. Interest rates have a
significant impact on virtually every family in America, on every
producer, business and family farmer in this country. I believe lower
interest rates have been needed for a long time, but now quick action
is truly crucial for our country's well-being.
The economic signs, not only in the U.S. economy but in economies
worldwide, demand swift and appropriate action to counteract the
problems that lie ahead. I can only say that I believe we have waited
too long. Just as inflation can spiral, and spiral out of control, so
can deflation spiral out of control. I hope that because the Federal
Reserve would not act a little sooner, that we have not reached a point
where we are now in a deflationary spiral, and that even more drastic
action may have to be taken. But I do believe that significant action
has to be taken right now to lower these interest rates.
Don't just take my word for it. Here is a quote from Mr. Jerry
Jasinowski, the President of the National Association of Manufacturers,
and Earnest Deavenport, the CEO of Eastman Chemical Company. On
September 8th they said:
The current volatility in world financial markets and its
threat to global growth . . . could lead to recessions
throughout the developing world and Eastern Europe, as well
as a slowdown in the United States.
Here is what they said on this chart, on September 8:
We recommend a significant loosening of monetary policy.
Specifically, the Federal funds and the discount rates should
be reduced by 50 basis points as soon as possible.''
That is what they said on September 8.
Or we can listen to Mr. John Smith, President of General Motors. On
September 15th he said, here it is on this chart here:
The question is whether the Fed will wait until the
recession is imported and then act, or act now. GM believes
it should act now.
That is the President of General Motors on September 15, just last
week.
Or, James Glassman at the American Enterprise Institute, he has
written several op-eds in the Washington Post calling on the Fed to
lower interest rates. Again he said recently:
The most important step right now is for the Federal
Reserve to cut interest rates. That would pump more money
into the system, encouraging businesses to borrow and
consumers to spend. It would also temporarily weaken the
dollar, thus helping the currencies of countries in dire
economic straits.
I could go on all day quoting business leaders, economists, editorial
writers and others calling on the Federal Reserve to lower interest
rates. From the Business Roundtable to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, to
the Economic Policy Institute and progressive economist Jamie Galbraith
at the University of Texas, from the chairman of the Joint Economic
Committee, to Robert Samuelson at the Washington Post, and Stephen
Roach at the New York Times, the message to the Fed is clear: Lower
interest rates now.
The Fed's policy needs to be reversed and interest rates
significantly lowered or our growing economy is likely to quickly sink,
perhaps into a very serious recession. So, what we need is to lower
interest rates as a preemptive strike against these ominous economic
signs.
If we do not do this soon, we will see our hopes for higher wages,
more jobs, and the end of Federal deficits dashed on the rocks of
recession and rising unemployment. We could be driven by deflation
rather than fearing inflation. With deflation, people delay major
purposes because they know it is going to be cheaper later on. The last
time, of course, that we saw significant deflation was in the Great
Depression of the 1930s, but it used to happen regularly in the last
century.
How bad can it get? From 1929 to 1933, wages fell by 25 percent;
wholesale prices fell by 30 percent; farm commodities fell by 51
percent. And with the shrinking economy, unemployment increased from
5.3 percent to 36.3 percent. Prices were cheaper, but with no money
coming in, most people could not benefit at all.
Today, the signs of increasing global deflation are widespread. The
problems in the U.S. economy are greatly exacerbated by the enormous
difficulties in many Asian Pacific nations, Russia, Latin America and
Mexico.
As former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury C. Fred Bergsten wrote
in the Washington Post on September 20th:
The Asian economic crisis is much deeper, much more
pervasive and likely to last much longer than anyone
imagined. Economies that had grown 6 to 8 percent annually
for two decades are declining by like or greater amounts, a
swing of Depression-era magnitude with incalculable political
and social consequences. The contagion has already spread far
beyond Asia, engulfing Russia and much of Latin America, and
could do so even more violently in the days ahead. We now
face a truly global crisis, which has already hit the United
States hard and will do so with increasing force.
The fall in the Canadian and Australian dollars, two countries
largely dependent on agriculture and mining is a demonstration of the
worldwide impact of the deflationary trend in commodities.
[[Page S10706]]
A far more severe threat is the long-term economic paralysis of the
Japanese economy which has turned into a significant recession. Some
predict that a bailout of the Japanese banks could cost as much as 20
percent of Japan's entire GDP.
That is much larger than our savings and loan crises back in the
1980s. Some estimate that the bad loans of Japanese banks may be about
$1 trillion. It is unfortunately clear that the Japanese government is
not moving quickly enough to resolve the difficulties in their
financial sector. The Japanese have already seen their wholesale prices
decline in 5 of the last 6 years. To further illustrate this point, I
would like to quote an article in September 14 Wall Street Journal
which I found very troubling.
It says:
News that Japan has fallen into its longest economic
contraction in 5 decades has led some economists and
government officials to suggest that the country has nudged
closer to a viscous spiral of falling prices, falling
employment and falling output that would damage its economy
even further.
Mr. President, I ask for unanimous consent that this entire article
be printed in the Record.
There being no objection, the article was ordered to be printed in
the Record, as follows:
[From the Wall Street Journal, Sept. 14, 1998]
Japan's Weak GDP Suggests Little Hope Soon
(By Bill Spindle)
Tokyo.--News that Japan has fallen into its longest
economic contraction in five decades has led some economists
and government officials to suggest that the country has
nudged closer to a vicious spiral of falling prices, falling
employment and falling output that would damage its economy
even further.
Economic activity fell 0.8% during the April-to-June
quarter from the previous quarter, the government said
Friday, an annualized decline of 3.3%. And with spending by
companies and consumers plummeting, there was almost no sign
the situation will improve soon.
``The Japanese economy is walking along the edge of a
deflationary spiral,'' said Taichi Sakaiya, head of the
government Economic Planning Agency.
Even before the gross domestic product numbers were
released Friday, the benchmark Nikkei stock index plunged
more than 5% amid concern over the economy and the gyrating
U.S. stock market. At the end of the morning session on
Monday, the Nikkei was up 30.12 points to 13947.10. The
dollar weakened almost five yen during the Asian trading day
as spooked investors brought dollar investments home and
cashed them in for yen. The Japanese bond market touched
another record high as yields, which move in the opposite
direction of prices, plunged to 0.79% on the benchmark long
bond.
Japan's report on gross domestic product--the total value
of goods and services produced in the economy--was a litany
of problems that exceeded even the downbeat expectations of
most private economists.
Consumer spending, the largest chunk of Japan's economy,
fell an annualized 3.3%. Housing investment, which provided
one of the few bright spots in the preceding quarter, plunged
by an annualized rate of 4%. And corporate capital investment
posted a second straight decline, falling 20% at an
annualized rate. That is a particularly bad omen, since
business investment has historically been a key engine that
drives employment and thus consumer spending. That ``suggests
the economy is going to be contracting going forward,'' said
Brian Rose, an economist at Warburg Dillon Read.
While Japan's trade surplus made the biggest contribution
to economic growth, even that silver lining was more a sign
of economic weakness than strength. The surplus expanded
because Japan's imports--which fell 6.8% from the previous
quarter--are declining faster in the weak economy than
exports, which slipped 0.4%. The only clear plus for the
economy was an annualized 1% rise in government expenditures,
indicating some of the spending from a fiscal stimulus
package may be trickling into the economy.
These most recent data--showing that Japan's economy
deteriorated for a third straight quarter, the longest
contraction since the government began compiling figures in
1955--comes as the government gropes for effective tools to
turn the tide. On Wednesday, the central bank loosened
monetary policy by cutting the interbank lending rate to
0.25% from 0.5%. However, private economists and even some
government officials said the move would provide little help
for an economy where the usual tools of monetary policy have
broken down.
The government is also pouring some $100 billion worth of
tax cuts and spending into the economy, part of an economic
rescue package passed in April. Still, private economists say
the stimulus package--the centerpiece of the dominant Liberal
Democratic Party's economic strategy--could be swamped by the
deterioration in the rest of the economy. Nonetheless, many
economists still think the spending and tax-cut package will
be enough to at least break the momentum of the contraction
temporarily over the next two quarters.
The fallout from the continued economic deterioration could
also eventually hit the banking system. Already a swelling
number of bankruptcies is creating concern that banks' huge
portfolios of bad loans will grow further as more borrowers
fail.
Mr. HARKIN. Mr. President, as the second largest economy, Japan's
poor economic situation is going to have a very significant effect on
our economy and the economies of most other countries.
Again I quote Fred Bergsten, a very respected expert in international
economics. He urges that ``the United States and European Union should
globalize the strategy of cutting their own interest rates. This would
encourage capital reflows to the crisis countries, reduce their debt
burdens and improve their competitive position by promoting a stronger
yen. It would also ensure continued world growth and help prevent
further stock market declines.''
Mr. Bergsten went on to note the fact that the 30-year bond interest
rate is below the Fed funds rate and urged a cut in this rate by a full
percentage point.
Chairman Greenspan recently said that the U.S. can't ``remain an
oasis of prosperity'' in ``a world that is experiencing greatly
increased stress.''
Again, this statement does appear to be a significant and positive
shift in the views of the Chairman of the Fed.
However, I am concerned that there are members of the Federal Open
Market Committee who both refuse to consider the global economy when
determining monetary policy and are still worried that low unemployment
will automatically trigger inflation.
The financial crisis in Asia, Latin America, Russia and many other
areas of the world poses a serious threat to our economy and, to date,
the United States has not established the appropriate monetary policy
to minimize it. The FOMC, through its control of the federal funds
rate, has the ability to take decisive action against the economic
problems that face us.
Many economists note that devalued currencies in several countries
will not only reduce the rate of inflation but also sharply increase
our trade deficit, eliminating many jobs and slowing growth in the
process. Worldwide commodity prices are at their lowest level in
decades.
With regard to our record trade deficit, on September 18, the
Christian Science Monitor reports that ``So far this year, the trade
deficit in goods and services is running at a record annual rate of
$185 billion, 68 percent higher than last year's record deficit of $110
billion. America's deficit with Pacific Rim countries hit $87.8 billion
in the first seven months--42 percent above the imbalance for the
period in 1997.''
The September 7 issue of Insight Magazine, says that ``Santa Claus is
coming to America, only his goods are making the early trip by sea
rather than sleigh--in huge freighters filled to capacity.''
What will this mean for the U.S. economy? Most importantly, it means
a significant loss of jobs, perhaps as much as 1.1 million. In fact,
Wilbur Ross, the senior managing editor of the Rothschild Investment
Group, believes that ``the loss of American jobs due to decreased
domestic production for export will outweigh any short term benefits of
lower prices.''
Experts on balance-of-trade issues say nearly every major industry
will be affected: automotive, steel, electronics, appliances,
machinery, textiles and apparel.
Mr. President, lower interest rates would allow people in other
countries to buy out goods, and, in turn, reduce the risk of Americans
losing their jobs.
Lower interest rates are also needed to help our farmers. Worldwide
commodity prices are at their lowest level in decades.
The price of farm commodities are connected to this problem, and we
know what is happening to farm commodities in our country. I was just
recently in the Midwest, and I can tell you that corn, beans, wheat and
all the attendant crops are at their lowest prices in years. They are
falling dramatically. Livestock prices are also going down. We are
seeing average hog prices this year at their lowest level since 1974
and, again, no indication that they are going to go up.
[[Page S10707]]
This is an idea of what is happening to corn prices. We can see how
they are dropping in the Midwest. I have shown these charts before in
discussing the need for some legislation on agriculture.
Basically, what this chart shows, and all the other charts indicate,
is corn, soybeans, wheat, cattle hogs--all the commodities we have in
the farm sector--are drastically dropping, and dropping very rapidly.
Wayne Angell, a former Federal Reserve Governor appointed by
President Reagan, and one of the last experts in farm economy to sit on
the Federal Reserve Board, I might add, said on September 9, ``The
Federal Reserve should cut interest rates to stem declines in the
prices of key commodities.''
Angell goes on to say that, ``If commodity prices continue to fall
unchecked, the U.S. economy risks a fall in the prices of hard assets,
such as real estate, with potentially severe risks to the economy.''
He said that on September 10.
He is right, we are already seeing this. We are seeing this happen in
the Midwest. Already we are seeing a softening of land prices, and
perhaps it could lead to a downward spiral. I and many others in this
body are working on solutions to fix the problems in the ag sector,
like increasing loan rates, providing storage payments to farmers,
helping those who have suffered disasters, helping to do something
about the Federal Crop Insurance Program. One of the best things the
Federal Reserve can do for farmers is lower interest rates.
There are direct effects. For example, a 1-percent reduction in
interest rates means the average farmer in Iowa will save $1,400 in
interest payments on their land each year. In addition to reductions in
land payments, lower interest rates means farmers will be able to
receive a much-needed break in the prices they pay for new machinery,
fertilizer and seeds. It means that farmers' incomes will increase and
the negative effect on the rural economy will be somewhat reduced.
Again, for example, a 1-percent reduction in interest rates means a
typical 950-acre grain farm in Iowa will see an increase of about
$2,500 in income a year.
But the indirect effects of lower interest rates, as I mentioned, are
even more important. We need the engine of the U.S. economy working at
full speed to help the world economy to recover. Lowering interest
rates will help restore worldwide markets for our agricultural goods.
As I have said many times in the past, lower interest rates amount to a
badly needed tax break for hard-working families.
Mr. President, the U.S. economy is the only large, healthy economic
engine in the world, and if our economy does slow (and our growth
increased just 1.6 percent in the last quarter compared to 5.5 percent
in the first quarter), it will be exceedingly difficult for the
worldwide economy to recover. The chance of a long, deep, worldwide
economic recession is, unfortunately, very possible.
There are already increasing signs of a possible recession in the
U.S. economy. For example, 30-year Treasury bond rates have sunk to
record lows and are now below the short-term Federal funds rate. This
is indeed a yellow warning light that the U.S. economy could be headed
for a significant decline. Again, this chart shows that. The 30-year
Treasury bond rates are now lower than the short-term Federal funds
rate. That sends a very powerful signal that we could be headed for a
very, very steep decline.
Wholesale prices slid a steep 0.4 percent just in August alone. For
the first 8 months of the year, producer prices have fallen at a 1.4
percent annual rate, compared with a 1.2 percent rise for all of 1997.
Nobel laureate Milt Friedman, with whom I do not very often agree on
economics, called this a ``significant decline.'' And former Fed Vice
Chairman Alan Blinder, says:
If you ask about the prospect of deflation and you restrict
your attention to goods, the answer is yes, and in fact we've
had some.
So, Mr. President, we are already seeing troubling deflationary signs
in our own economy. Action must be taken now.
The fall in the U.S. stock market, another flashing warning signal,
will clearly have its own impact on what is referred to as the ``wealth
effect.'' To describe the troubling nature of this situation, I would
like to quote an article from the September 14 issue of Time magazine.
The article pointed out that:
A slumping stock market can certainly add to the drag on a
slowing economy, through the so-called wealth effect. In a
rising market, economists estimate that for every dollar of
increased wealth, consumers spend an additional 4 cents. And,
they often stop spending that money when their stock gains
erode. If $2 trillion has been lost from investors' pockets
over the past couple of months, then at 4 cents on the dollar
we could expect an $80 billion drop in annual consumer
spending, or about 1% of the total U.S. economy. While that
alone is not enough to stop the economy from growing . . . it
could combine with the global currency crisis to tip the U.S.
into recession later this year or in early 1999.
The article in Time goes on to say that:
. . . a persistent stock market decline can also hurt the
economy by making companies more cautious about expansion and
hiring. That usually means layoffs or plant closings, which
ripple through our economy as laid-off people cut spending.
Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that this article from Time be
printed in the Record.
There being no objection, the material was ordered to be printed in
the Record, as follows:
[From Time Magazine, Sept. 14, 1998]
What a Drag! Asia, Russia, Latin America--Trouble Abroad Threatens the
U.S. Economy
(S.C. Gwynne Reported by Bernard Baumohl, William Dowell and Aixa M.
Pascual/New York, Julie Grace/Milwaukee, Alison Jones/Durham and Adam
Zagorin/Washington)
Smack in the American heartland, far from both Wall Street
and Asia, the 15,500 workers of Harnischfeger Industries,
based in St. Francis, Wis., got slammed from both directions.
A proud world beater that builds mining equipment and huge
machines that produce 70% of the world's printing paper,
Harnischfeger has just seen its sales to Singapore and other
troubled Pacific Rim countries drop from $600 million a year
to nearly zero. Its stock, riding high at $44 a year ago, was
beaten down to $16 in last week's market rout, gutting the
401(k) retirement plans of many of its employees. ``What I
have in Harnischfeger stock is down by two-thirds,'' says a
glum Dave Trench, 57, a machinery stock attendant at a
Harnischfeger subsidiary in Nashua, N.H. ``When I look at
retirement, I might start to sweat.'' At least he still has
his job--for now. Harnischfeger announced in late August that
it soon will begin dismissing 3,100 employees, or a fifth of
its work force.
Look at Harnischfeger, and you can see the origins of the
stock market's grinding 1,698-point decline, a loss of 8%
from the July 17 peak of the Dow Jones industrial average at
9337.97. The company also offers a glimpse of what might come
next, as American workers and investors like Dave Trench
wonder whether the long boom is over. Should they pull their
money out of stocks? Does the market slide foretell a
recession? How is any of this bad news possible when the U.S.
economy seems so strong, with the lowest unemployment,
inflation and interest rates seen in a generation?
Like American business generally, Harnischfeger entered
this turmoil strong and lean. Well-managed with a skilled and
productive work force, it had prospered from the past
decade's explosive growth in global freedom and commerce. But
then came the currency crisis that began in Thailand in July
1997 and spread like a contagion through the rest of Asia--
and last month to Russia and last week to Latin America,
hammering down local currencies and slashing demand for U.S.
exports. Cheaper Asian exports began grabbing more and more
domestic business away from U.S. companies and sliced into
their earnings. That trend finally drove down an overheated
stock market, taking back, in the past seven weeks, almost a
quarter of the $9 trillion that stocks have pumped into U.S.
portfolios during the roaring '90s.
When the Dow plunged 512 points last Monday, investors at
first regarded it as an irrational response to the financial
and political turmoil in Russia--a vast country that still
bristles with 7,000 strategic nuclear warheads but whose
economy scarcely rivals that of the Netherlands and accounts
for less than 1% of U.S. exports. Investors treated Monday's
market action as another of those ``dips'' in which they had
been taught to buy stocks on the cheap. Heck, it wasn't even
as big as the one-day dip last Oct. 27, and the market had
shrugged that one off six weeks before powering to new highs
and greater glory.
With that in mind, bargain hunters on Tuesday sent the Dow
rebounding 288 points, in the second-largest single-day point
gain in history, President Clinton, for whom rising stocks
have covered a multitude of sins these past six years,
tracked the Dow anxiously as
[[Page S10708]]
he traveled to beleaguered Moscow. During a dinner with
Russian President Boris Yeltsin, Clinton stopped economic
adviser Gene Sperling in the receiving line to tell him,
quietly but with palpable relief, that ``the market's up''
and flashed a thumbs-up sign.
But this time things were different. The Dow fell
Wednesday. And the next day. And the next day, losing ground
for the seventh trading day out of the previous eight and
posting a 411-point, or 5%, setback for the week. Despite the
release last week of fresh reports chronicling persistent low
unemployment and rising orders for factory goods, anxiety
spread from the stock market to the ``real'' economy of
jobs and paychecks. The market drop served as a reminder--
one about as subtle as a poke in the eye--that in today's
global economy, not even a healthy U.S. can quarantine its
factories and offices and markets from the illnesses of
countries halfway around the world. It vividly showed
Americans how the turmoil in Asia and Latin America is
slashing the profits of U.S. corporations, which might be
forced to respond with layoffs and cutbacks in spending.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, speaking after the
markets closed last Friday, revealed that Fed policymakers
are worried that the threat to the U.S. economy from global
financial turmoil rivals the danger of wage and price
inflation. The Fed is now as likely to cut interest rates, he
hinted, as to raise them. ``It is just not credible that the
U.S. can remain an oasis of prosperity unaffected by a world
that is experiencing greatly increased stress,'' Greenspan
said in a speech at the University of California, Berkeley.
Then he headed off to join Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin in
a meeting where they urged Japan's new Finance Minister to
deal with his country's insolvent banks and other financial
troubles, which are dragging down not only the huge economy
and financial market of Japan but also those of other Asian
countries--and now the U.S.
Only 21 months ago, with the Dow at 6500, Greenspan was
warning against ``irrational exuberance'' in the stock
market. Several other wise elders expressed hope that last
week's correction will have the cleansing effect of
strengthening the historic relationship between stock
valuations and the earnings of the underlying companies--a
notion that had fallen out of favor after years of ``momentum
investing,'' in which all that mattered was that someone
would buy the hot stock that some greater fool would soon bid
up to an even higher price. The price-earnings ratio for the
S&P 500 has approached a record 30 this summer, twice its
historical norm. Securities analysts, reassessing the impact
of the turmoil in Asia and other foreign markets, last week
began chopping down their estimates for growth of U.S.
corporate profits, to as little as 3% for all of 1998, and
zero growth for 1999, a sharp drop from last year's robust
12%.
In a bit of lucky timing, Fidelity Investments, the mutual-
fund giant, last week rolled out a promotional and
educational campaign starring Peter Lynch, its legendary fund
manager. Lynch was troubled, he told TIME, that ``in the
first half of this year, the S&P 500 was up 15%, but
[corporate] profits were down.'' He also expressed relief
that the correction came now, rather than having the market
drop to 7500 ``after it's gone up to 14000.''
There was remarkably little evidence of panic among
individual investors last week. One measure of that is the
amount of money that flows in and out of equity mutual funds.
In August, a month that included several gut-wrenching weeks,
there was a net outflow of $5.4 billion, or well under 1% of
the total invested in equity funds. Though this was the first
such exodus since the recession and stock slump of 1990, the
number is still quite modest when compared with the 4% that
fled equity funds after the October 1987 correction. Last
week investors pulled a net $6.2 billion out of stock funds
Monday and Tuesday, but on Wednesday a net $6.5 billion
flowed right back as the market bounced, according to Trim
Tabs Financial Services. ``There has not been any retail
panic as far as we can see,'' says Scott Chaisson, a branch
manager for Fidelity in midtown Manhattan. ``There seems to
be an awareness that there are going to be ups and downs like
this.''
The real test, though, won't come until later, when new
investors face the results of their first sustained market
decline. An unprecedented 43% of adult Americans are now
invested in stocks, up from only 21% in 1990. (That helps
explain why we are hearing less Schadenfreude over the
discomfort of Wall Street yuppies than in past corrections.)
A striking 57% of all household assets today are allocated to
equities. Small wonder: the market has doubled just since
1994. But these investors are about to get account statements
showing declines of 20% to 30%. Even if they have been in the
black over the past 12 months, not to mention the past few
years, it will be a shock to be reminded, for the first time
in years, that stocks can go down as well as up.
Investors large and small who had put money overseas in
search of diversification, or simply higher returns, were
sorely disappointed last week. Day after day, one giant U.S.
bank after another came forward, like sheepish A.A. members
fallen off the wagon, to confess they had succumbed to the
lure of big returns from Russian investments on which--
surprise!--the Yeltsin government has defaulted. Citicorp
announced that its earnings for the third quarter will be cut
by about $200 million in Russian losses. The price tag at
Bankers Trust, about $260 million; at brokerage firm
Salomon Smith Barney, $360 million in the past two months.
All told, U.S. financial institutions had losses mounting
to $8 billion by week's end, and one of the fears that
drugged the stock market was that U.S. companies might face
even larger losses in Latin America, where they have much
more exposure (about a third of U.S. exports) and where
currencies came under fresh assault late last week. Brazil
saw $11 billion in capital fleeing the country in the past
five weeks--not because its economy is weak but because of
each investor's fear that other investors might flee any
economy slurred with the label ``emerging.'' Money also fled
the stocks of financial institutions with lots of business
and investment in the merging markets. Citicorp's stock
dropped to about half of its recent high, losing $40 billion
of market value.
Other companies that took major hits were transportation
stocks whose business involves trade and travel: the parent
companies of such airlines as American, United and Delta.
Companies like Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble and Gillette,
which not long ago were praised for their successful
penetration of global markets, last week were punished
harshly through stock sell-offs. General Electric, the
world's most valuable public corporation and one of the most
admired, fell 22%, losing $68 billion of its market value.
The near panic over emerging markets was strongest among
some of the hedge funds, the high-risk vehicles that often
deliver high returns to wealthy investors. After famed
investor George Soros lost $2 billion in Russia, John
Meriweather's Long-Term Capital Management announced that it
had lost $2.1 billion, or half its asset value, so far this
year. ``Russia and Asia became the trigger for the correction
in the U.S. stock market,'' says David Wyss, chief economist
at DRI/McGraw-Hill, a consulting firm. ``Although there had
already been a softening in earnings over the past few
quarters, traders needed to be hit with a two-by-four to make
them realize you just can't get double-digit increases in
earnings every year.''
Russia also became the trigger for another concern, at once
political and economic: ``We were suddenly threatened by an
old fear--the Soviet Union and militarism,'' says John
Silvia, chief economist at Scudder Kemper Investments. ``If
the world is not as peaceful as we expected, then a lot of
money in the U.S. that went into consumer spending and
capital investment may now have to go back to defense, and
that's going to shock the budget here.''
As the Dow ended its week at 7640.25, it was approaching
one of the standard benchmarks for a bear market: a 20% drop
from a previous peak. Many investors, though, have been in a
quiet bear market for several months; that's because, during
the last stages of the run-up in the Dow and the S&P 500,
most of the increase was accounted for by such large
companies as Coca-Cola and Microsoft; many smaller stocks
were left behind. In the S&P 500, virtually all the gains in
share prices in recent months were made by the 50 largest. At
the same time, the Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks--
traditionally favored by many individual investors--was off
29% from its April high. And as of Monday, the average stock
in the New York Stock Exchange was off 38% this year. Even
before last week, nearly half of U.S. domestic stock funds
were losing money for the year.
Several economists see the current market as an
untraditional bear market or, as Harvinder Kalirai, an
economist at the consulting group I.D.E.A., sees it, what's
happening on Wall Street is ``a cyclical bear in a secular
bull market. This is a cyclical fluctuation.'' The longer-
term or secular trend in the market, though, ``is still
high.''
Many individual investors also hold that faith. Dennis
Lese, 52, an executive with Amoco Corp. in Chicago, says that
he is staying in the market but that the six-figure losses he
suffered last week have caused him to postpone his planned
early retirement. ``I was thinking about retiring and living
off stocks,'' he says. ``But now I think I'll work a few more
years.''
Others seemed content to ride it out, in the knowledge that
the gains of the past few years will cushion the impact of a
down market now. ``Anyone with brains knows the thing to do
is to sit back and wait,'' says Stephanie Rubin, 52, an
executive with a search firm in Chicago who has about
$300,000 in stocks. ``If it's down 25% on paper, it doesn't
bother me because it's money tied up in an IRA account. I'm
not going to touch this money till I'm 65.''
Some people who were actively playing the market, however,
were singing a different tune. ``I was panicking,'' said Alan
Herkowitz, 39, a New York systems analyst and a self-
described ``short-term trader'' who invests ``play money'' in
the market.
One of the biggest worries in a sustained market downturn
is that it might depress consumer confidence and spending.
Contrary to popular belief, though, bit stock market drops
alone rarely herald recessions. According to a study by Peter
Temin, an economics professor at M.I.T., falling stock prices
directly caused only one minor economic downturn in this
century, in 1903.
But a slumping stock market can certainly add to the drag
on a slowing economy, through the so-called wealth effect. In
a rising market, economists estimate that for every dollar of
increased wealth, consumers spend an additional 4 [cents].
And they often
[[Page S10709]]
stop spending that money when their stock gains erode. If $2
trillion has been lost from investors' pockets over the past
seven weeks, then at 4 [cents] on the dollar we could expect
an $80 billion drop in annual consumer spending, or about 1%
of the total U.S. economy. While that alone is not enough to
stop the economy from growing, economists say, it could
combine with the global currency crisis to tip the U.S. into
recession later this year or in early 1999.
A persistent stock market decline can also hurt the economy
by making companies more cautious about expansion and hiring.
``If the stock price isn't doing well,'' says John Lonski,
chief economist for Moody's Investors Service, ``shareholders
will put pressure on management to cut costs to improve
returns.'' That usually means layoffs and plant closings,
which ``ripple through the economy'' as laid-off people cut
spending.
Pushing against these negative currents, fortunately, is
the persistent, fundamental strength of the U.S. economy. The
trend in wages and employment, which wield far more influence
over consumer confidence and spending than stock prices,
remains strong. As she placed a tortilla warmer in her
shopping cart last week at a store in Nashville, Tenn., Sue
Allison, 53, a public relations officer for the Tennessee
supreme court, observed that ``there are a million people out
tonight spending $90 on nothing, just as I am. My husband and
I won't touch [our retirement stocks] for at least 15 years,
so I don't worry about short-term losses.'' In fact, aside
from corporate profits and stock prices, most other leading
indicators are pointing briskly upward. Orders from American
factories rose 1.2% in July, the strongest performance since
November. As investors around the globe sought a safe haven
for their capital, long-term interest rates continued their
slide to 5.3%, a silver lining for the U.S. in the cloud over
emerging markets. Those low rates in turn have boosted the
used-housing market, which recorded an all-time high of
houses sold in July. Housing values, another important factor
in Americans' calculation of their wealth, are rising smartly
at about 5% a year. Unemployment stands at 4.5%, nearly a 28-
year low, and only 1.8% for those with college degrees.
Thanks to rising productivity, real wages have been rising
for the first time in nearly three decades without spurring
inflation. The U.S. growth rate, while down from its feverish
5.5% in the first quarter, is still expected to register 2%-
plus for the rest of the year. The only skunk at this picnic
is the Asian, Russian and Latin financial crisis, estimated
to have knocked about 2.5 percentage points off second-
quarter growth of 1.5%.
If recession comes, economists say, the cause will be the
inability of countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Mexico and Venezuela to buy as many U.S. exports with their
devalued currencies--and the hit on U.S. wages and corporate
earnings as cheap imports from those countries grab a greater
share of the U.S. consumer's wallet.
At Nucor Corp., a $4 billion North Carolina steelmaker, the
global tumult has hit home in both ways. Nucor's exports are
down, falling globally from an annual rate two years ago of
700,000 tons to the present 30,000 tons, much of which is
accounted for by Asian markets. But far more worrisome is the
tough competition in the U.S. market from cheap steel made in
Japan, Korea and Russia. Currency devaluations in those
countries have made their products cheap for American buyers,
says chairman Ken Iverson. ``The U.S. is the only economy
left that's doing well, so they're going to ship it all
here.'' That makes America the consumer of last resort--a
lifeline to many foreign economies, but at a heavy cost to
many U.S. companies and workers. Again, such disruptions
quickly get capitalized into stock prices: Nucor shares have
fallen from $61 a year ago to $39 last week.
Another North Carolina company feeling the pain is Beacon
Sweets, which makes, among other products, ``gummi watches''
(gelatin candy in the shape of a watch). Although most of its
business is domestic, Beacon had begun to grow in China,
Korea, Singapore, the Philippines and Japan. But over the
past year, Beacon has seen its export business evaporate.
Says Stephen Berkowitz, an executive vice president: ``Our
business in those countries has absolutely dried up as a
result of currency devaluations.''
Perhaps the greatest risk to both the U.S. and global
economies is that today's hard times could bring a rising
tide of global protectionism, including controls not only on
trade but also on flows of capital. With the leadership in
Russia and Japan virtually paralyzed, and President Clinton
distracted by his personal problems there is a danger that
the trend toward freer markets could be reversed. This is
already happening in places like Malaysia, which last week
imposed foreign-exchange controls hurtful to multinational
firms in the U.S. and elsewhere--not to mention to Malaysia
itself, which will be hard pressed to attract investment. Nor
is the U.S. immune. If unemployment begins to rise, blame
will quickly attach to the rocketing U.S. trade deficit--one
of the most immediate effects of the crisis in Asia--and will
tempt members of Congress to impose new limits on imports.
That, more than any other factor, could eventually lead to a
significant recession in this country and others. ``What we
need is leadership,'' says Hugh Johnson, chief investment
strategist at First Albany, a brokerage firm. ``Without it,
we have a vacuum, and the market always hates that.''
For Clinton, much is at stake. The rising market and robust
economy have long boosted his approval rating and made both
is allies and his adversaries loath to cross him. A
significant downturn in the economy, or a longer stock
decline than expected, could make Americans feel much less
patient with his foibles, and could embolden his enemies.
Studies of polling show that a sour economy in 1973-74
contributed significantly to Americans' disgust with
President Richard Nixon in the later stages of the Watergate
scandal.
For American investors too, much is at stake. One of the
worst things they could do is let rising volatility and
uncertainty drive them out of stock investments. Returns on
stocks have far outdistanced most other investments over
time, producing an average annual return, after inflation, of
6.4% from 1927 through 1995, which includes the period when
stocks struggled to regain the highs they reached before the
1929 crash and the Great Depression. Investors can also take
heart that the stock market usually bounces back far more
quickly than it did in the 1930s. In nine of the 11 months
where the S&P 500 lost 4% or more since October 1987, returns
were positive within two months of the drop. In all cases,
including the 1987 crash, the market returned to positive
returns within six months. As TIME's Dan Kadlec explains in
the following story, most investors should stay with stocks,
except when handling money they might need within the next
three years.
For all its problems, Harnischfeger offers encouragement to
other Americans at this uncertain time. Folks at the
Wisconsin company have earned higher wages and have been able
to educate their children better because of the profits they
have reaped from the unprecedented spread of global commerce
and free trade. But the price of that prosperity is a global
economy so interlinked that the troubles of America's trading
partners very quickly become its troubles too, even when
America's domestic economy is showing remarkable resilience,
as it is now. Harnischfeger's managers believe they are in
for a rough ride for several quarters, but that the company's
future, like that of the American economy, is bright over the
longer term. Says Francis Corby Jr., the company's executive
vice president for finance and administration: ``We'll bounce
back.'' They always have.
Excerpts
when the dow breaks
Monday, Aug. 31--
Tuesday, Sept. 1--Financial and political turmoil in Asia
and Russia trigger a plunge in the Dow on Monday, but bargain
hunters help it recover more than half its loss on Tuesday,
setting a record for trading volume.
Wednesday, Sept. 2--Stocks drift down slightly in
relatively light trading as exhausted investors await signs
of the market's direction.
Thursday, Sept. 3--Worries of an economic slowdown and
lagging corporate profits contribute to the Dow's sixth drop
in seven days.
Friday, Sept. 4--A burst of bargain hunting late in the day
erases most of a sharp decline on Friday, leaving the Dow
down 411 for the week.
a little perspective
A Short-Term Loss--If you had invested $10,000 in the S&P
500 at the market's peak on July 17, it would have been worth
$8,206 on Sept. 4, after last week's market drop.
An Even Year--But if you had invested $10,000 12 months
ago, on Sept. 1, 1997, it would now be worth $10,827.
A Long-Term Gain--And if you had invested $10,000 on the
eve of the big market plunge a decade ago, on Oct. 19, 1987,
your investment by now would be worth $34,450.--Source:
Datastream
united states
The Problems--The economy's increasing dependence on stock
market, exports suffering as the world economy stumbles;
widening income inequality a concern
The Solutions--Federal Reserve can lower interest rates to
ease economic strains in troubled nations. At home, higher
priority for education and training to enhance job skills
japan
The Problems--The economy has been stagnant for seven
years; banks crippled by massive amounts of bad loans; weak
political leaders won't make hard decisions; exports hurt by
Asian crisis
The Solutions--Pass permanent tax cuts to stimulate growth;
use taxpayer funds to revitalize banks so they can issue
credit again.
germany
The Problems--High unemployment; excessive spending on
social programs, high tax rates could threaten German
competitive under Europe's new single-currency system, the
euro
The Solutions--Accelerate labor-market reform to allow
easier hiring and firing of workers; equalize tax rates
before the euro arrives
Indonesia
The Problems--Risk of social upheaval as poverty increases;
dysfunctional banking system; absence of investor confidence;
large companies closely linked to the government.
The Solutions--Restructure banks and companies; promote
domestic stability; restore confidence of ethnic Chinese
businesses
[[Page S10710]]
brazil
The Problems--Massive government-budget deficit; foreign
reserves dwindling as the nation defends its currency, the
real
The Solutions--Overhaul the social security plan and pare
back spending to lower the deficit; privatize more
government-owned companies to free resources and increase
productivity
mexico
The Problems--Low oil prices are slashing government
income, causing the budget deficit to swell; the peso is
unstable because of highly volatile world currency.
The Solutions--Political leaders need to set strict limits
on domestic spending; the central bank should maintain a
tight monetary policy to support the currency.
russia
The Problems--Poor tax collection; corruption; little
access to credit markets; creeping hyperinflation; zero
credibility that the country will carry out economic reforms.
The Solutions--Collect taxes owed to pay wages owed; stay
committed to free and open markets to stabilize the ruble;
overhaul the banks; stop the crooks.
hong kong
The Problems--The government is fiercely defending an
overvalued currency; interest rates are excessively high;
real estate is overvalued; a faltering financial sector is
burdened by shaky real estate.
The Solutions--End the currency peg to the dollar; reduce
interest rates to ease pressure on the banks.
china
The Problems--Falling exports and foreign investments plus
damaging floods will slow economic growth below 8% target; a
virtually insolvent banking system; state-owned enterprises
are drowning in red ink.
The Solutions--Devalue the renminbi 15% to keep exports
competitive; privatize government-owned companies.
malaysia
The Problems--An autocratic ruler is turning toward a
controlled economy; foreign investors have little confidence;
domestic debt is dangerously high; a serious threat of
inflation.
The Solutions--Revamp the banking system and promote a
level playing field in the economy; stick to austerity plan
to support the ringgit.
____
Mr. HARKIN. One argument against lowering interest rates is that our
unemployment levels are already low. Some say that our current rate of
unemployment at 4.5 percent is too low, companies cannot find workers
and will be forced to pay more, hurting their profits, hurting the
economy.
Businesses have surprised many economists by creating multiple ways
to improve efficiency. Of course, more can and should be done. I
believe there is room for additional job growth. Companies have also
been effective at finding new employees who were not actively looking
for work and were, therefore, not counted as unemployed.
We need economic growth to continue in order to improve wages, to
bring still more people into the labor force, to give those working
part time the chance to work full time, and to provide opportunity for
those on welfare, and for those who have entered the workforce at the
bottom rung, to start moving up the ladder.
With only those looking for work counted as unemployed, there are
still millions of others not counted as unemployed who could be brought
into the workforce. As difficult as it may be to find workers now, this
will be viewed as a small problem compared to a serious economic
downturn, a recession, and deflation.
Again, if inflation should start to accelerate we can always apply
the brakes and whatever inflation may have occurred can be reduced. But
to forever limit our growth to a preset limit blocks Americans from the
opportunity of reaching their full potential.
If we do move to deflation, if we go into a serious recession at this
point, without America's strength, the world's economy could sink to
Depression-era levels.
For the sake of our farmers and our small business owners, for hard-
working Americans, and the rest of our economy, and for countries
around the world, I sincerely hope that Chairman Greenspan and the
Federal Open Market Committee do not misjudge the current economic
indicators in the U.S. and worldwide economies.
While I am pleased that Chairman Greenspan recently hinted at a
possible rate cut, I am afraid the Federal Open Market Committee may
have already misjudged the ominous economic signs that are out there. I
only hope it is not too late. That is why, Mr. President, the Senate
must send a clear signal to the Federal Reserve: Lower interest rates
now.
The Fed must show that it has as much concern for the jobs of
American workers as it has for the interests of U.S. investors
throughout the world. An immediate cut in interest rates will give our
economy the boost it needs to maintain its strength during the next
year as the fragile nature of many economies throughout the world
recovers.
So, Mr. President, that is what we need--for this Senate to send a
clear signal that we have looked at the economy, we have listened to
our constituents, we have been out in our States; we see it, we feel
it, we know it. Things are declining --I can tell you that--in the farm
sector and in rural America. We know what is happening worldwide. Now
is the time for the Fed to act for a significant cut in interest rates.
Mr. President, I yield the floor.
Mr. GRASSLEY addressed the Chair.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. The Senator from Iowa.
Mr. GRASSLEY. Mr. President, I had asked one of the smartest people
in the Senate on this issue, Senator Domenici, to debate it. And there
is going to be some discussion of this amendment tomorrow before we
vote on it. At that time, Senator Domenici will speak about it for our
side. But I also want to address the issue shortly, but not from the
standpoint of the merits of where interest rates ought to be, but just
the issue of whether or not it is appropriate to do this on this
bankruptcy legislation, as well as the whole issue of whether or not
Congress should try to interfere with the issue of the Federal Reserve
deciding what the interest rate should be. Because I think it is fair
to assume that we want to make sure that interest rates are
appropriate. But who should make that decision?
So I offer this advice to my colleagues on this amendment offered by
my colleague from our State of Iowa, Senator Harkin.
While we are all for lower interest rates, I think this amendment
should be opposed because of the traditional separation of the Federal
Reserve from the political process. What we generally speak of is the
independence of the Federal Reserve System. For short, we all speak of
the independence of the Fed.
This country has a very long history of protecting the work of the
Federal Reserve from political manipulation. Since the 1930s, Congress
has gently refrained from passing legislation in an attempt to
influence monetary policy. In fact, according to the Congressional
Research Service, in the past 25 years, Congress has acted on only five
occasions on legislation that affects the Federal Reserve System. Most
of these actions have been in the form of nonbinding resolutions or
report language. So congressional action of a statutory nature has been
rare, and when it has been done whenever Congress has spoken on this
issue, it seems it has had a very tempered approach. Maybe we ought to
say that this sense of the Senate is a tempered approach in the sense
that it doesn't change statute, but still it is an attempt by a
political body to influence a part of our government that we have
always tried to keep immune and separated from politics.
There is a sound reason for keeping the Fed independent of this
political process. It is because we in this body, whether we want to
admit it or not, tend to think too much for the short-term. We tend to
think in terms of the next election rather than the next generation.
Too often, it is even more personal than that--what can I do to
increase my chances of reelection? These short-term policies, as we too
often find out, can lead to long-run disasters.
While increasing the money supply can put more people to work prior
to an election, of course, it can lead to crippling inflation in the
long run. The Fed appropriately is not subjected to the pressures to do
something potentially reckless for the purpose of short-term gain. This
policy has served us well for generations and the U.S. economy remains
the envy of the world because of it. In fact, in this decade alone,
many nations have followed the lead that the United States has
practiced for over 60 years. They have done this by bringing more
independence to their own central banks. Great Britain, under a new
labor Prime Minister, has moved to make the Bank of England
[[Page S10711]]
more independent. Other European Union nations in their new union have
committed to an independent central bank upon the creation of that
monetary union which starts January 1, 1999.
Furthermore, every nation that has faced a monetary crisis in recent
memory has attempted in the name of reform to keep its central bank
from political influences. We saw it in Mexico just 3\1/2\ years ago
when the peso declined so rapidly in Mexico. They have moved in that
direction. We see it today in Japan, Korea, and Thailand. A major
reason for each of their economic problems, of course, is the cronyism
in bank lending practices and political influence over the banking
systems. Maybe another way to say it is too much of an incestuous
relationship between their corporations and their government, between
their bank and their government, to a point where there was no arm's
length transactions; the marketplace did not work appropriately. Nobody
had to make a sound business judgment because there was always somebody
there to bail them out.
These people now, after the crisis in Southeast Asia, have begun to
see the wisdom of a central bank, free of political influence. We
should recognize the wisdom of it, as well.
As I said earlier, we are all for low interest rates. The relatively
low interest rate environment that we currently enjoy has allowed
millions of Americans to purchase a home for the first time. It has
kept the cost of doing business for small business and farmers down. It
has helped the Federal Government reduce its budget deficit by reducing
the costs of the national debt.
Instead of pointing fingers at the Fed, Congress should instead focus
on the things that are within its authority that lead to lower interest
rates, like balancing the budget and reducing Government borrowing. We
have been on this course now for the last 3 or 4 years. So, September
30th of this year for the first time we can tell the people we finished
the fiscal year not only with the budget balanced but with paying down,
probably 60-billion-some dollars, on the national debt.
During this 30-year period of irresponsible Federal spending in which
the national debt has been run up to $5.4 billion, and without the
changes made in the last 3 or 4 years, at the end of the Clinton
administration the debt could have gone to $6.7 billion--at least that
is what we were projecting in the 1994 budget resolution discussions.
During this period of time of 30 years the Fed has been a
counterbalance to an irresponsible Congress, trying to make sure that
inflation was kept down as a result of fiscal policy that would tend to
drive interest rates up for the Federal Government because the Federal
Government always stands first in line for credit and is always willing
to pay more and will pay more than any other borrower would pay or have
to pay.
Congress has sole constitutional authority over the fiscal policy of
this country, and in many respects fiscal policy has had as big an
impact on interest rates as monetary policy. For instance, interest
rates will remain relatively high as long as the Federal Government is
competing with borrowers for money. That is why I find it interesting
that often the same Members who want to direct monetary policy at the
Fed tend to vote against sound fiscal policies such as balancing the
budget and reducing Government spending.
If a Congress did its job of managing fiscal policy better, maybe we
wouldn't have to worry so much about what the policy of the Federal
Reserve is. Now we are in a position of balancing the budget, paying
down some on the national debt, not having the Federal Government
eating up all of the total credit that is needed, the Federal Reserve
job will be much, much easier.
In short, I oppose these efforts to subject the decisionmaking of the
Federal Reserve to the vagaries of the political process. By most
accounts, the Fed has been largely responsible for this period of
unprecedented economic growth fueled by both low interest rates and low
inflation. So I say that we should stay on course that Congresses for
the past 60 years have laid out for us, and that is keeping the Fed
free of political influence that has led to economic calamities in so
many other parts of the world.
I yield the floor.
Mr. HARKIN. Mr. President, I just want to respond a little bit to my
colleague from Iowa by again pointing out to Senators that while we do
respect the independence of the Fed, as we say, some argue that it is
not even appropriate to debate monetary policy or to send signals to
the Fed.
I say to my colleague from Iowa, as William Jackson at the
Congressional Research Service writes in the report to Congress,
Constitutional authority to regulate the value of money,
and by implication, to determine monetary policy, rests with
Congress, article I, section 8 of the Constitution.
This authority has been largely delegated to the Federal Reserve by
the Federal Reserve Act, as amended. Nonetheless, the Fed, as a
creature of law, may have its policies dictated as well as its
structure changed by Congress. Since the 1930s, Congress has generally
declined from doing either. But in the past 25 years, Congress has
occasionally legislated more Fed accountability, with an aim towards
influencing policy. And Congress has periodically enacted nonbinding
language to express its monetary policy preferences to the Fed, with
the implication that more structural changes could be forthcoming in
the absence of policy response by Fed officials.
Again, I think it is not only our right but our duty as Senators to
debate monetary policy and to give our thoughts and guidance and
direction to the Fed.
The Federal Reserve, I keep reminding people, is nowhere mentioned in
the Constitution of the United States. It is not a separate branch of
government. It is not something that is under executive powers
enumerated in the Constitution. The Constitution gave Congress the
power to coin money and regulate the value thereof. Of course, we don't
want to do that. I would hate to see us do that. So we delegate it. We
set up the Federal Reserve with the Federal Reserve Act. We amended it
many times to do that. And it has worked well.
But it still means that as policymakers we have a right and, I think,
an obligation to send guidance and direction to the Fed about what is
happening in the economy and what they ought to do. The last time the
Senate debated a sense of the Congress calling on the Federal Reserve
to lower interest rates was on December 19, 1982. It passed by a vote
of 93 to nothing here in the Senate. Ninety-three to nothing the Senate
passed a sense-of-the-Senate resolution asking the Fed to lower
interest rates.
Again, given all of the recent support for interest rate cuts in the
business community by economists, editorial boards, and political
leaders on both sides of the aisle, I see no reason why the Senate
should not vote unanimously, again, urging the Fed to lower interest
rates to stem what I and others--not only myself but a lot of others,
from conservative to more liberal economists all over America--are
saying: there are ominous signs of a possible recession in the U.S.
economy.
As I said, even the Chairman of the Fed himself, Chairman Greenspan,
has moved in this direction recently. He said encouraging things about
the need to perhaps cut interest rates. But I am fearful that the rest
of the Federal Open Market Committee hasn't gotten the word yet.
I think we need to send them the word that what we see as
policymakers in our daily lives, what we see in our States, what we see
in terms of the issues that we deal with in the Senate, that we see an
economy that is going down from a 5.5 percent growth rate last quarter
down to 1.6 percent next quarter. We see rapidly falling commodity
prices, especially in the farm sector. We see wages beginning to
stagnate. We see the 30-year Treasury bonds now lower than the Federal
funds rate. There are some very ominous signs out there.
This amendment is designed to simply exercise not only our right but,
I believe, our obligation as Senators to debate this situation.
Of course, if Senators don't agree that is what is happening--that
indeed there may be a recession out there, that there are some signs of
falling commodity prices, for example, and of worldwide recession--I
guess people can debate that. Obviously, if Senators feel the other
way, they obviously should not vote for a sense-of-the-Congress
amendment like this. But I hope
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that Senators who feel that they shouldn't vote against it because
Congress has no right telling the Fed what to do--I would just say look
at the history.
I will have more to say tomorrow about the many times Congress has
passed some legislation, or sense-of-the-Senate, or sense-of-the-
Congress resolution giving guidance and direction to the Fed. I hope
that we will exercise not only our right but I believe our obligation
to do so.
I yield the floor.
Mr. GRASSLEY addressed the Chair.
The PRESIDING OFFICER (Mr. Brownback). The Senator from Iowa.
Mr. GRASSLEY. Mr. President, my colleague from Iowa has accurately
stated what the Constitution says and what we can do. I don't have any
dispute with that. The only dispute I would have is whether or not it
would be wise for Congress to do that after we have had such a success
of building confidence in the economy when there is an absence of
congressional manipulation of monetary policy. I fear if there is a
perception in the private sector of Congress from time to time making
an impact upon monetary policy, that is going to build in protection
for people who are investing and, consequently, drive interest rates
up. We don't want that to happen.
I yield the floor. I suggest the absence of a quorum.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. The clerk will call the roll.
The legislative clerk proceeded to call the roll.
Mr. GRASSLEY. Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that the order
for the quorum call be rescinded.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. Without objection, it is so ordered.
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