[Congressional Record Volume 144, Number 120 (Friday, September 11, 1998)]
[Senate]
[Pages S10234-S10235]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
TAX CUTS AND SAVING SOCIAL SECURITY
Mr. BUMPERS. Mr. President, I also wanted to discuss another matter
of significance. We are going to technically have a budget surplus this
year. Nobody knows how much it will be. The CBO has estimated the
surplus will be somewhere between $50 and $63 billion. They have
projected $1.4 trillion in surpluses over the next 10 years. We need to
keep in mind that estimates are just that--estimates. When you consider
the fact in the last 60 days, $1.9 trillion has been lost on the stock
exchanges of this country, you tell me how you would evaluate that
study that was made about 4 months ago that we are going to have a $1.4
trillion surplus over the next 10 years. The surplus may hold up this
year and we may get a surplus next year, because an awful lot of people
are bailing out of the market.
But when we talk about a surplus, it has been said time and time and
time again on the floor of this Senate, it is not really a surplus. I
don't know why in the name of God we keep calling it a surplus when it
isn't. But for the sake of argument, because this is the way we do it
here, let's assume we will have a $50 to $63 billion surplus this year.
But let me add this caveat: $100 billion of that is the excess in the
Social Security Trust Fund. You take the Social Security excess out and
we will have a $40 to $50 billion deficit.
Now, having set the stage for whoever may be listening to this
argument, we are effectively looking this fall for a surplus, and every
dime of it will come from the Social Security Trust Fund. Then I pick
up the paper this morning and I see where there is a move in the U.S.
Senate to go ahead with a tax cut after all. I don't know whether what
I read this morning is true or not, but I have applauded our Budget
Committee chairman in the past because he has steadfastly been opposed
to tax cuts this year. But this morning I read that maybe he is about
ready to sign off on an $80 billion tax cut. I want to say this: There
is an unassailable argument that can be made, that we are cutting taxes
for some of the wealthiest people in America and it is coming right out
of the Social Security Trust Fund.
If you put $100 billion that we collected in Social Security this
year, in excess of what we paid out, if you take that surplus and take
it off budget and put it in the Trust Fund where it is supposed to be,
you have a deficit. If you leave it in, you have a surplus. It is a
phony surplus. And this tax cut will come out of the phony surplus,
which means it is coming right out of the Social Security Trust Fund.
Now, I would not presume to give political advice to the people on
the other side of the aisle, and I can tell you that nobody ever lost a
vote--normally--voting for a tax cut. In 1993, we lost control of the
Senate because we voted for a tax increase on the wealthiest of
Americans which brought about our current economic prosperity and
renewed fiscal soundness. I said time and time again, if the Democrats
had to lose control of the Senate for casting a very courageous vote
that brought this country 7, 8 years of economic vibrancy, it was worth
it.
I lost two of the dearest friends I had in the election of 1994
because they voted for the 1993 budget bill. We have been benefiting
from it ever since, and we now find ourselves in this very happy,
euphoric state. Why cannot we enjoy and leave it alone? Why do we
[[Page S10235]]
have to keep tinkering with it? If you don't want the Social Security
Trust Fund to be a vibrant fund, something that gives people who are in
the workforce at the age of 25 or 30 some degree of assurance that it
will be there for them, if you don't want to do that, say so.
Mr. President, do you know that under current estimates--and these
estimates, as I say, are just what I say they are; they depend on the
economy and they depend on a lot of things. But the Social Security
Administration estimates by the year 2020, the Social Security trust
fund will have a $3.7 trillion surplus. The only problem with that is
12 years later it is bankrupt. If we don't fix Social Security--we are
not going to do it this year--if we don't get at it soon, and we allow
ourselves to squander a $3.7 trillion trust fund, it will be one of the
most callous, irresponsible acts ever taken by the U.S. Congress.
If you don't want it to go to the Social Security Trust Fund, then
you just tell your constituents you are not for a tax cut; you want it
to either stay in the Social Security Trust Fund or you want it to go
on the national debt, which now stands at about $5.2 trillion.
We still have a vibrant economy. When you start taking money out of
the Social Security trust fund to funnel into the economy, you have the
remote chance of increasing inflation. You increase inflation, you
increase interest rates. You increase interest rates, the buying of
cars and houses goes ``kerplunk.'' Those are simple economic
principles. They are just as certain to happen as the night following
the day.
Why cannot we be grateful for our prosperity? Mr. President, I vented
my spleen on one of my favorite subjects this morning, and that is that
I think tinkering with the phony surplus in order to provide a tax cut
is not only bad economic policy, it is bad politics for those who
propose it. In 1981--I am not sure I would have had the courage, except
I had just been reelected, had 6 years in front of me to rectify
whatever sins I committed--in 1981, I stood right here--I think I have
been sitting at this desk for about 18 years--and I made the point just
before we voted that if you passed Ronald Reagan's tax cuts and doubled
defense spending, you were not going to balance the budget in 1984, you
were going to create deficits big enough to choke a mule.
There is nothing more fun for a politician than to be able to say I
told you so, so that is what I am saying. Eleven Senators voted against
that. There were only three Senators who voted against the tax cuts and
for the spending cuts, which would have balanced the budget in 1984; it
was yours truly, Bill Bradley from New Jersey, and Fritz Hollings from
South Carolina. But 11 of us voted against that tax cut and said you
are going to get the deficit out of control. My precise words were:
``It will be big enough to choke a mule.'' You will find that in the
Congressional Record. And we did it. I don't know whether we choked a
mule or not, but the consequences were absolutely horrendous, and
remained horrendous until 1993 when we were looking at $300 billion in
annual deficits as far as the eye could see.
So I am pleading with my colleagues to think about it. My voice is
not persuasive on the other side of the aisle, and I know that. It is
very presumptuous of me to even make this speech, and I don't intend to
lecture. I am simply saying that despite what is going on here in this
traumatic time in the history of this country, let's not compound that
by making a terrible economic mistake. And, as I say, for some, in my
opinion, it is a terrible political mistake.
I yield the floor.
Mr. Brownback addressed the Chair.
The PRESIDING OFFICER (Mr. Sessions). The Senator from Kansas is
recognized.
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