[Congressional Record Volume 144, Number 7 (Thursday, February 5, 1998)]
[Senate]
[Page S441]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
THE PRESIDENT'S BUDGET
Mr. KERREY. Mr. President, there has been a lot of commentary before
about the President's budget, and I would like to offer a little
comment prior to talking about the proposals that I heard the
distinguished Senator from West Virginia, Senator Byrd, make the other
day having to do with the importance of ISTEA legislation.
My own view is that there is an awful lot that Congress needs to be
proud of at the moment. We sometimes make it worse with our actions.
And when we help make things better, it seems to be important for us to
take stock of what we have done and to acknowledge our accomplishments.
I believe the last 7 years in the United States we have seen a
dramatic transformation in the United States Congress from one of an
expectation almost that the Japanese and other Asian nationals are
going to overwhelm us.
I remember very well in 1991 the debate was: Will the U.S. currency
be devalued in the end? Could our automobile manufacturers survive?
Could our computer manufacturers survive? There were a lot of people
who reached the conclusion that we would not be able to do that, and
what we ought to do is adopt the Japanese model, to have the Government
much more involved in the decisionmaking businesses, with a much closer
relationship, and industrial policy was quite popular at the time.
We chose a different direction. We enacted in 1990, and in 1993 and
again enacted in 1997, legislation that imposed fiscal discipline on
the Federal Government. And as a consequence of that we are now finding
ourselves debating what are we going to do about the surplus? We have
reduced Government borrowing, and reduced Government borrowing just
from the 1993 legislation by almost $800 billion; and that coupled with
tremendous accomplishments in the private sector, businesses and
employees working harder, producing more, being more competitive and
especially paying attention to price and quality which is what the
consumer increasingly is looking at before they will make a purchase.
Our goods are selling. Our cars and computers are selling. Our
software and food is selling. Our products are selling. People
throughout the world, where they have an opportunity to buy our
products are saying that ``Made in the U.S.A'' is good again. It wasn't
that long ago when people were saying maybe it is not so good.
So we need to congratulate ourselves. We have a surplus. The cost of
the Federal Government is down to the lowest as a percentage of GDP
than it has been in a long time. Crime is down in most major cities.
There is a lot that we need to feel good about--not just as Members of
Congress but as Americans for how it is that we have gotten to where we
are today.
Mr. President, I think, as is always the case in any competitive
operation, that it must be pointed out that there is a need to take
advantage--not to say it is terrific and we are on the top of the heap
and become complacent. That is when you get in trouble. I understand
that there is uncertainty when you are having to compete. But in part
that uncertainty means we are doing a good job because we are not
asking anybody to provide us with an absolute guarantee of success. We
are saying that we are prepared to get in the market and do what we
have to do to be successful.
So I believe it is not the time in 1998 to say that it is terrific,
and let's figure out how to spend the surplus, or let's figure out how
to take an easy course of action. I think the President has outlined
for us a tough course in setting Social Security as a top priority
saying we have to have a discussion in 1998 about it besides in 1999
what we are going to do with the most expensive program that we have in
Washington, DC, today. I applaud that.
All of us need, as we look at the Congressional Budget Office
numbers, to be alert. And the distinguished Senator from Tennessee and
I are both on the Medicare commission, and I presume that Medicare
commission, which I think is going to have our first meeting sometime
in March relatively quickly, I hope. Our big concern should be the year
2010, the year 2030, and the CBO numbers that we are given. All of us
need to understand that it only extends out 10 years. The next 10 years
looks pretty good. Over the next 10 years not a single baby boomer will
retire. They start to retire; 77 million of them start to retire in the
year 2010. And from 2010 to 2030, the number of retirees will increase
almost 25 million while the number of workers only goes up 5 million.
That is a demographic problem--not caused by liberalism or
conservatism. It is a demographic problem, and my guess is that this
year it will impose some sort of children's health fee on tobacco. My
guess is that the increased funding in NIH will go through. And my
guess is that as a consequence of that and what other sorts of things
there will be that the baby-boom generation is going to live even
longer than what we are currently forecasting. And their demand for
collective transfer payments both from Social Security and Medicare are
apt to be larger than what we are currently estimating, not likely to
be smaller.
During that period of time--2010-2030--the percent of our budget that
is allocated to mandatory spending, presuming that we allow net
interest to go down, which is by no means certain, if we allow the debt
to be paid down so the net interest can go down, even with that
scenario, at the end of the baby boom generation 80 percent of the
budget will go to mandatory spending. All one has to do is take today's
budget of $1.7 trillion, subtract 80 percent, and ask yourself how you
are going to defend the Nation with 20 percent, how you are going to
build our roads, how you are going to maintain a law enforcement
system, how you are going to do all the things that everyone wants to
do with only 20 percent left.
That is the dilemma, it seems to me, we are going to face. So I hope
in this moment of exuberation and exhilaration we understand now is not
the time to become complacent. Now is not the time for us to just come
to the floor and try to tee up things that are relatively easy. We have
to get the tough things done.
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