[Congressional Record Volume 144, Number 7 (Thursday, February 5, 1998)]
[Senate]
[Page S441]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]




                         THE PRESIDENT'S BUDGET

  Mr. KERREY. Mr. President, there has been a lot of commentary before 
about the President's budget, and I would like to offer a little 
comment prior to talking about the proposals that I heard the 
distinguished Senator from West Virginia, Senator Byrd, make the other 
day having to do with the importance of ISTEA legislation.
  My own view is that there is an awful lot that Congress needs to be 
proud of at the moment. We sometimes make it worse with our actions. 
And when we help make things better, it seems to be important for us to 
take stock of what we have done and to acknowledge our accomplishments.
  I believe the last 7 years in the United States we have seen a 
dramatic transformation in the United States Congress from one of an 
expectation almost that the Japanese and other Asian nationals are 
going to overwhelm us.
  I remember very well in 1991 the debate was: Will the U.S. currency 
be devalued in the end? Could our automobile manufacturers survive? 
Could our computer manufacturers survive? There were a lot of people 
who reached the conclusion that we would not be able to do that, and 
what we ought to do is adopt the Japanese model, to have the Government 
much more involved in the decisionmaking businesses, with a much closer 
relationship, and industrial policy was quite popular at the time.
  We chose a different direction. We enacted in 1990, and in 1993 and 
again enacted in 1997, legislation that imposed fiscal discipline on 
the Federal Government. And as a consequence of that we are now finding 
ourselves debating what are we going to do about the surplus? We have 
reduced Government borrowing, and reduced Government borrowing just 
from the 1993 legislation by almost $800 billion; and that coupled with 
tremendous accomplishments in the private sector, businesses and 
employees working harder, producing more, being more competitive and 
especially paying attention to price and quality which is what the 
consumer increasingly is looking at before they will make a purchase.
  Our goods are selling. Our cars and computers are selling. Our 
software and food is selling. Our products are selling. People 
throughout the world, where they have an opportunity to buy our 
products are saying that ``Made in the U.S.A'' is good again. It wasn't 
that long ago when people were saying maybe it is not so good.
  So we need to congratulate ourselves. We have a surplus. The cost of 
the Federal Government is down to the lowest as a percentage of GDP 
than it has been in a long time. Crime is down in most major cities. 
There is a lot that we need to feel good about--not just as Members of 
Congress but as Americans for how it is that we have gotten to where we 
are today.

  Mr. President, I think, as is always the case in any competitive 
operation, that it must be pointed out that there is a need to take 
advantage--not to say it is terrific and we are on the top of the heap 
and become complacent. That is when you get in trouble. I understand 
that there is uncertainty when you are having to compete. But in part 
that uncertainty means we are doing a good job because we are not 
asking anybody to provide us with an absolute guarantee of success. We 
are saying that we are prepared to get in the market and do what we 
have to do to be successful.
  So I believe it is not the time in 1998 to say that it is terrific, 
and let's figure out how to spend the surplus, or let's figure out how 
to take an easy course of action. I think the President has outlined 
for us a tough course in setting Social Security as a top priority 
saying we have to have a discussion in 1998 about it besides in 1999 
what we are going to do with the most expensive program that we have in 
Washington, DC, today. I applaud that.
  All of us need, as we look at the Congressional Budget Office 
numbers, to be alert. And the distinguished Senator from Tennessee and 
I are both on the Medicare commission, and I presume that Medicare 
commission, which I think is going to have our first meeting sometime 
in March relatively quickly, I hope. Our big concern should be the year 
2010, the year 2030, and the CBO numbers that we are given. All of us 
need to understand that it only extends out 10 years. The next 10 years 
looks pretty good. Over the next 10 years not a single baby boomer will 
retire. They start to retire; 77 million of them start to retire in the 
year 2010. And from 2010 to 2030, the number of retirees will increase 
almost 25 million while the number of workers only goes up 5 million. 
That is a demographic problem--not caused by liberalism or 
conservatism. It is a demographic problem, and my guess is that this 
year it will impose some sort of children's health fee on tobacco. My 
guess is that the increased funding in NIH will go through. And my 
guess is that as a consequence of that and what other sorts of things 
there will be that the baby-boom generation is going to live even 
longer than what we are currently forecasting. And their demand for 
collective transfer payments both from Social Security and Medicare are 
apt to be larger than what we are currently estimating, not likely to 
be smaller.

  During that period of time--2010-2030--the percent of our budget that 
is allocated to mandatory spending, presuming that we allow net 
interest to go down, which is by no means certain, if we allow the debt 
to be paid down so the net interest can go down, even with that 
scenario, at the end of the baby boom generation 80 percent of the 
budget will go to mandatory spending. All one has to do is take today's 
budget of $1.7 trillion, subtract 80 percent, and ask yourself how you 
are going to defend the Nation with 20 percent, how you are going to 
build our roads, how you are going to maintain a law enforcement 
system, how you are going to do all the things that everyone wants to 
do with only 20 percent left.
  That is the dilemma, it seems to me, we are going to face. So I hope 
in this moment of exuberation and exhilaration we understand now is not 
the time to become complacent. Now is not the time for us to just come 
to the floor and try to tee up things that are relatively easy. We have 
to get the tough things done.

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