[Congressional Record Volume 143, Number 149 (Thursday, October 30, 1997)]
[Extensions of Remarks]
[Pages E2144-E2145]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]


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ARMING AND TRAINING BOSNIAN FEDERATION FORCES--MAINTAINING A BALANCE OF 
                                 POWER

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                          HON. JOHN P. MURTHA

                            of pennsylvania

                    in the house of representatives

                       Thursday, October 30, 1997

  Mr. MURTHA. Mr. Speaker, earlier this month, the article below 
appeared in the New York Times. It was around this time that I had just 
returned from Bosnia visiting our troops and U.N. officials. I take 
exception to the article, which left a strong impression that the 
United States policy of arming and training the Bosnian Federation Army 
has reversed the balance of power in Bosnia and created a potent 
military force that is now capable of crushing the Bosnian Serb forces. 
An unnamed European NATO commander also is quoted making the 
irresponsible statement that ``the question no longer is if the Muslims 
will attack the Bosnian Serbs, but when.''
  I have been involved in military affairs for a good portion of my 
life having served in the Marine Corps during the Korean and Vietnam 
wars and on the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee of the House of 
Representatives since 1979. I have been in Bosnia nine different times 
over the last 5 years including visits during the war when the UNPROFOR 
mission was on the verge of collapse. I have discussed our ``train and 
equip'' policy in detail with NATO commanders on the ground in Bosnia, 
with American, British, Bosnian, Croatian, OSCE, and U.N. diplomats, 
with intelligence analysts in Washington, with the military trainers 
doing the actual training, and with United States sergeants who patrol 
the streets of Brcko. I get a far different picture from most of these 
experts than what was stated in the article.
  Most knowledgeable experts agree that the Bosnian Federation army is 
years away from being an effective fighting force capable of combined 
arms maneuvers. During the devastating Bosnian conflict, the Muslim 
army was personnel-rich but equipment-poor. The Bosnian Serb army was 
the reverse, equipment-rich but manpower-poor. The Bosnian Serb 
military also enjoyed large advantages in organization, training, 
leadership, and logistics since the preponderance of the force was from 
the old Yugoslav National Army. The Muslim army avoided utter defeat 
only by being able to replace its casualties and fill the gaps faster 
than the smaller Serb army was able to fully exploit its battlefield 
successes. But even near the end of the conflict when Muslim forces 
achieved their greatest success, the weakened Bosnian Serb army was 
still able to counterattack effectively and retake some key contested 
areas.
  It is too simple to conclude that upgrading Bosnian Federation army 
equipment and providing a little more than a year's worth of 
fundamental training will reverse the military balance in Bosnia. The 
experts I talked to believe the Federation is years away from 
developing a trained and cohesive army capable of armored maneuvers. 
They still have not developed a professional NCO corps necessary to any 
modern army. They have no ability to supply or sustain the equipment 
they have received. Their officer corps--which is being taught 
defensive tactics, not offensive tactics--is still in its infancy. They 
have no intelligence capability and only a fledgling communications 
system.
  While the Bosnian Serb army has been substantially degraded, it is no 
secret that supplies, modern equipment, and other warfighting assets 
could quickly become available to them if renewed hostilities broke 
out, especially if the Bosnian Federation were seen as the aggressor. 
While morale among the Bosnian Serbs is low at this time and there are 
deep division, I believe that this would quickly change if they were 
attacked. Even if the Federation forces were to have initial military 
success, they know that such early successes could easily evolve into a 
wider regional conflict in which the Federation would have few 
international supporters.
  This is not to say that we should turn a blind eye towards how the 
``train and equip'' program is progressing. There is wisdom in 
achieving rough military parity between the adversaries in this region. 
It would be a serious blunder if, in the name of achieving this parity, 
we were to actually reverse the balance and create a new military power 
capable of offensive action that was bent on revenge.
  I am satisfied that our experts in the region understand this 
delicate situation. They are working hard to ensure that the new 
Bosnian Federation military is a professional, defensive-minded force 
that understands both its capabilities and limitations.

                [From the New York Times, Oct. 3, 1997]

      Bosnian Muslims Said to Intensify Efforts to Rearm in Secret

                           (By Chris Hedges)

       Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina.--The Muslin-led government in 
     Sarajevo appears to be intensifying a clandestine program to 
     arm and train its military, and senior NATO officials say it 
     is close to--or may already have achieved--the ability to 
     mount a crushing offensive against the Bosnian Serb-held part 
     of Bosnia.
       ``The question no longer is if the Muslims will attack the 
     Bosnian Serbs, but when,'' said a senior European NATO 
     commander. ``The only way to prevent such an attack, at this 
     point, is for the peacekeeping mission to extend its 
     mandate.''
       The NATO officials were united in favoring an extension of 
     the NATO peacekeepers' mandate, and none of them suggested 
     that the Sarajevo government would attempt a military 
     offensive with NATO troops still in place. The peacekeepers 
     are scheduled to leave next June, but the Clinton 
     administration, recognizing the slow pace of reconciliation 
     in Bosnia, has recently joined other NATO allies in favoring 
     an extension of the NATO force, which includes American 
     troops.
       U.S. congressional opposition, the strength of which has 
     yet to be tested, appears to be the only remaining obstacle 
     to a continued NATO presence that the officials agreed would 
     offer the best chance of averting a resumption of the 1992-
     1995 Bosnian war. It appeared that the NATO officials 
     willingness to talk about the Muslim buildup was an attempt 
     to influence the debate on Capitol Hill.
       NATO aside, all other factors point toward renewed military 
     confrontation. The NATO

[[Page E2145]]

     officials noted that while the Muslims are busy building a 
     formidable military machine, the Bosnian Serb army is 
     imploding under the weight of the current power struggle, a 
     lack of funds, poor morale, a severe shortage of spare parts 
     and high desertion rates.
       There have been several indications over the last few weeks 
     that the Bosnian government's secret weapons acquisition 
     program and clandestine training has been stepped up. For 
     example, an Egyptian freighter sailing under a Ukrainian flag 
     sits quarantined under NATO guard in the waters off the 
     Croatian port of Ploce, its hold filled with 10 Soviet-built 
     T-55 tanks half were to be delivered as part of a secret arms 
     shipment to the Bosnian Muslim army.
       All weapons deliveries are supposed to be shared between 
     Muslim and Croatian units in the united force established 
     under the peace accord. The Muslim-Croat force exists largely 
     on paper, however, and NATO officials said the T-55s were to 
     be delivered only to the Muslims.
       A spokesman from the State Department's Task Force on 
     Military Stabilization in the Balkans reached in Washington 
     described the impounded weapons as a ``procedural'' problem 
     that ``will be resolved shortly.''
       But senior NATO officials described the Americans at being 
     angry about the shipment, and said that other shipments have 
     managed to elude NATO monitors and have been delivered. There 
     have been reports in recent weeks of heavy arms shipments 
     arriving in the Croatian port of Rjeka which is not monitored 
     by NATO soldiers as Ploce is, senior officials said.
       These officials also said that an Iranian Revolutionary 
     Guard general was posted to the Iranian Embassy in Zagreb, 
     Croatia's capital, and that since his arrival in August he 
     has apparently been working out deals with the Croats to 
     smuggle more weapons to the Muslims. And NATO officials say 
     they have received several intelligence reports of 
     clandestine infantry training for Bosnian Muslim soldiers in 
     Iran and Malaysia.
       The clandestine effort to build up the Bosnian army is in 
     violation of the Bosnian peace agreement which sets strict 
     limits on the number of heavy weapons possessed by each side. 
     The rearmament effort comes in parallel to a Washington-
     backed program, known as ``equip and train,'' that provides 
     instruction and NATO armor and artillery to the Bosnian 
     Croats and Muslims. The $300-million program, which has 
     included the delivery of advanced American tanks two 
     generations ahead of anything in the Bosnian Serb arsenal; 
     has in the eyes of many senior NATO officials including 
     the British, already tipped the military balance in favor 
     of the Muslims.
       Senior Russian commanders, who are increasingly nervous 
     about the Muslim buildup against their traditional Serbian 
     allies, recently met with senior Bosnian Serb generals and 
     handed them classified NATO satellite photos of military 
     training camps set up for Bosnian Muslims in an effort to 
     warn the Serbs of the impending debacle, according to Western 
     diplomats.
       ``The Bosnian Serb generals were stunned,'' said a senior 
     Western diplomat who was informed of the meeting. ``The mood 
     in the room was very black.''
       The Bosnian Muslims insist that they are only acquiring 
     weapons and training under the strict limits set down by the 
     Bosnian peace agreement and under the guidelines of the 
     ``equip and train'' program.
       ``A needle can't get in here without NATO knowing about 
     it,'' said Mirza Hajric, and adviser to President Alija 
     Izerbegovic of Bosnia, ``Anyone who believes this stuff can 
     be smuggled in here is a fool. Apparently the Ministry of 
     Defense did not properly inform the U.S. officials about this 
     ship, but NATO was informed. It is just poor communications. 
     I assume it was a mistake. As far as training goes there is 
     no military training of Bosnians in Iran or other countries. 
     All training is done under equip and train.''
       NATO strategists, who expect the Muslims to first try to 
     seize the Serb-held lands in eastern Bosnia, say the region 
     could fall ``in a matter of days.''
       ``We also expect most all of the Serbs there to be driven 
     into Serbia,'' said a senior NATO commander, an event that 
     could force Belgrade, even against its will, to intervene. 
     This is a high-risk operation.''
       The officials also outlined a scenario in which the Bosnian 
     Muslims and Croatia would resume the joint offensive in 
     northwestern Bosnia that they pursued with such success in 
     the final months of the war. The Muslims and Croats 
     recaptured large chunks of territory in August and September 
     1995 and threatened Banja Luka, the largest town under 
     Bosnian Serb control, before Washington imposed a cease fire. 
     Muslim and Croatian commanders often speak bitterly of 
     Washington's decision to intervene.
       Croatia, which has a larger military budget at $1.4 billion 
     than Poland, a much larger country, is as busy rearming as 
     the Muslims, cutting arms deals worth tens of millions of 
     dollars with companies in Turkey and Israel, these NATO 
     officials said.
       ``The Croats are very interested in getting their hands on 
     western Bosnia,'' said a NATO official. ``The attitude is 
     that they will get whatever they can get now by helping the 
     Muslims drive out the Serbs. They think they can deal with 
     the Muslims later.''
       Washington's ``equip and train'' program, despite all the 
     mounting danger signs, plows ahead as if the peace agreement 
     was on the verge of fulfillment. It is touted by Washington 
     as an effort to build a joint 45,000-strong force of ethnic 
     Croats and Muslims. The Bosnia Croats and Muslims are 
     normally part of a federation, but their continued 
     antagonism has so far made a mockery of American efforts 
     to form joint units and commands.
       Military Professional Resources, a Virginia-based private 
     contractor that is carrying out the training, has 200 
     American trainers, all retired U.S. Army officers or 
     noncommissioned officers, currently in Bosnia. Since Aug. 1, 
     1996, the contractor has trained close to 5,000 soldiers, 
     most of them Muslims under the 70-30 ratio that is supposed 
     to exist between Muslims and Croats in the putative 
     federation army.
       The trainers, accompanied by translators, conduct classes 
     on the operation and maintenance of the donated equipment 
     each day at the old Yugolsav tank base in Hadzici, 15 miles 
     south of Sarajevo.
       The warehouses on the base, once filled with old Soviet-
     style tanks, are now occupied with modern weapons, including 
     45 American M-60A3 tanks, 12 130mm field guns, 12 122mm 
     howitzers, 36 105mm howitzers, 80 M-113A2 armored personnel 
     carriers, 31 French troop transport vehicles, and 31 French 
     armed scout vehicles donated by the United States, Egypt, and 
     the United Arab Emirates.
       A factory in Travnik, controlled by the Muslims, is 
     producing about 50 more 122mm howitzers and the United States 
     is scheduled to provide 116 of the biggest guns in its field 
     artillery arsenal, 155mm howitzers.
       The federation is permitted, under the quota imposed by the 
     Dayton agreement, to have 273 battle tanks and 1,000 pieces 
     of artillery.
       The trainers said the hardware being provided to the 
     federation outclassed anything the Bosnian Serbs could put in 
     the field. The M-60A3 tank's gun has a longer range than that 
     of the T-84, a Ukrainian variant of a Soviet design that is 
     the Bosnian Serbs' best tank.
       ``This gun can put out four to five rounds a minute with a 
     good crew,'' said John Reed, 40, from Killeen, Texas. ``I 
     would put it up against a T-84 or a T-72 in a minute. It is 
     the best tank in Bosnia.''

     

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