[Congressional Record Volume 143, Number 49 (Wednesday, April 23, 1997)]
[Senate]
[Pages S3546-S3548]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
SENATE IMMIGRATION SUBCOMMITTEE ANALYSIS OF 1996 INS LEGAL IMMIGRATION
NUMBERS
Mr. ABRAHAM. Mr. President, yesterday, the Immigration and
Naturalization Service [INS] officially released its legal immigration
numbers for 1996. Attached please find an analysis by the staff of the
Senate Immigration Subcommittee that helps place these numbers into
context.
The analysis finds:
First, the 1996 increase in immigration is not part of a long-term
rise in legal immigration but rather a temporary increase.
Second, many additional people being counted as immigrants in 1996
and 1997 were not new entrants but were already physically in the
country as the spouses of those who received amnesty under the law
signed by President Reagan in 1986.
Third, the increase is due largely to INS processing delays that
caused many people who would have been counted as immigrants in 1995 to
be counted in 1996.
Fourth, after a 20-percent decline between 1993 and 1995, this short-
term increase in legal immigration numbers is expected to be followed
by another decline to previous levels within 2 to 3 years.
And finally, in historical terms, legal immigration is moderate when
measured as a percentage of the U.S. population--0.3 percent--the most
accurate measurement of immigrants' economic and demographic impact.
Numerically, legal immigration in 1996 was below the level recorded on
10 other occasions since 1904.
As chairman of the Senate Immigation Subcommittee, I hope this
analysis sheds light on the legal immigration numbers released
yesterday by INS. I ask unanimous consent that the Senate Immigration
Subcommittee's analysis of the 1996 INS legal immigration numbers be
included in the Record. Mr. President, I yield the floor.
There being no objection, the analysis was ordered to be printed in
the Record, as follows:
[[Page S3547]]
Senate Immigration Subcommittee Analysis
1996 ins legal immigration increase part of a temporary rise followed
by decrease to previous levels; '86 amnesty, ins processing delays in
'95 led to rise
Washington.--The Immigration and Naturalization Service
(INS) today officially released its legal immigration numbers
for 1996. Attached please find an analysis by the staff of
the Senate Immigration Subcommittee that helps place these
numbers into context.
The analysis finds:
The 1996 increase in immigration is not part of a long-term
rise in legal immigration but rather a temporary increase.
Many additional people being counted as immigrants in 1996
and 1997 were not new entrants but were already physically in
the country as the spouses of those who received amnesty
under the law signed by President Reagan in 1986.
The increase is due largely to INS processing delays that
caused many people who would have been counted as immigrants
in 1995 to be counted in 1996.
After a 20 percent decline between 1993 and 1995, this
short-term increase in legal immigration numbers is expected
to be followed by another decline to previous levels within
two to three years.
In historic terms, legal immigration is moderate when
measured as a percentage of the U.S. population (0.3%)--the
most accurate measurement of immigrants' economic and
demographic impact. Numerically, legal immigration in 1996
was below the level recorded on 10 other occasions since
1904.
An Analysis of the 1996 INS Legal Immigration Numbers
prepared by the staff of the senate subcommittee on immigration--april
1997
Summary: Between 1993 and 1995, the level of legal
immigration declined by 20 percent. An analysis performed by
the Senate Subcommittee on Immigration has determined that
the increase in immigration reported by the INS for 1996 is
part of a temporary trend and that the overall immigration
numbers are projected to decline again within three years.
The analysis shows that legal immigration is projected to
plateau potentially in 1997, but more likely in 1998 or the
following year according to the latest INS projections--and
then to fall. Simply put, the 1996 increase from 1995 is not
part of a long-term rise in legal immigration.
The subcommittee analysis shows that the approximately 27
percent increase in legal immigration in 1996, from 720,461
in 1995 to 915,900 in 1996, is explained by three factors:
(1) INS processing delays in 1995 that led immigrants to be
counted in 1996, rather than in 1995; (2) The aftermath of
the 1986 Amnesty signed by President Reagan, which has
enabled formerly undocumented immigrants to sponsor their
spouses and children; and (3) the result of unused employment
visas in 1995 that on a one-time basis boosted 1996's
available total for family preference visas.
The 1996 immigration rate is lower than every year in the
nation's history between 1840 and 1930, actually one-third
the rate for many of those years, and lower even in absolute
terms than near the turn of the century. By the most accurate
measure of immigrants' demographic and economic impact on
America--the annual immigration total as a percentage of the
U.S. population--legal immigration remains moderate in
historical terms at only 0.3 percent of the populace.
background on the legal immigration system
Immigration categories are numerically restricted for
family and business, with the sole exception being the
``immediate relatives'' of U.S. citizens, whose totals
changed little between 1986 and 1995. Their totals have risen
over the last year, but their rise is part of a short term
confluence of factors that is expected dissipate within the
next two to three years. Under U.S. law, an American citizen
can petition for (1) a spouse or minor child, (2) a parent,
(3) a married child or a child 21 or older, or (4) a brother
or sister. A lawful permanent resident (green card holder)
can petition only for a spouse or child.\1\ There are no
``extended family'' categories for aunts or uncles in the
U.S. immigration system. Approximately three-quarters of all
family immigration visas went to the spouses and children
categories in 1996. The other one-fourth went to the parents
and sibling of U.S. citizens. In addition, up to 140,000
people a year can immigrate with employment-based visas.
Refugees are admitted after entering the country following
the annual consultative process by which Congress and the
President set each year's refugee totals. Finally, there are
a limited number of ``diversity'' visas distributed to
immigrants from ``underrepresented'' countries. In the
immigration system as a whole, no country may receive more
than 7 percent of the total visas allotted in a given year,
although an exception is made for the spouses and children of
lawful permanent residents.\2\
legal immigration is projected to plateau and then decline
The analysis performed by the staff of the Senate
Subcommittee on Immigration leads to one overarching
conclusion: The 1996 increase in immigration is not part of a
long-term rise in legal immigration but rather a temporary
increase.
The conclusion that legal immigration will fall after a
temporary two- to three-year bump upwards is already part of
the public record. At a May 16, 1996 hearing before the House
Subcommittee on Immigration and Claims, Susan Martin,
executive director of the U.S. Commission on Immigration
Reform, stated, ``As the INS figures released on April 25
show, immigration levels will increase, without any change in
current law, for the next two years and then return to
approximately the level of last year.'' \3\ [Emphasis added.]
The 1995 total was 720,461, well below the 1996 total.
1. Processing Delays Artificially Inflate 1996 Totals
At the same hearing, House Immigration and Claims
Subcommittee Chair Lamar Smith (R-TX) correctly pinpointed
the primary reason that legal immigration was expected to
rise from 1995 to 1996. He stated, ``The FY 1995 figures were
artificially low. An administrative logjam prevented the
issuance in 1995 of immigrant visas to tens of thousands of
individuals who were eligible to receive them and to be
admitted immediately to the United States. This logjam
resulted from delays in processing applications for green
cards under section 245(i) of the Immigration and Nationality
Act, a new provision that was effective for the first time in
1995.'' \4\
As Rep. Smith pointed out, a new procedure that allowed
people to obtain green cards in the United States rather than
having to travel to a consulate in their home countries
significantly increased processing at INS offices in 1995 and
caused delays. Those delays caused at least tens of thousands
of people who would have been counted as immigrants in 1995,
to be counted in 1996 instead. In other words, the 1996
increase is in many ways a bookkeeping phenomenon. As Figure
2 illustrates, when one smooths out the one-year blips in
1995 processing and other one-time anomalies and instead uses
two-year averages, the data show that since 1990 the general
direction in immigration has been downward.
2. The Aftermath of the Amnesty Artificially Increased 1996
Totals: Many People Newly Counted Were Already in the
Country
The years 1989, 1990, and 1991 were artificially high
because of the amnesty of undocumented immigrants signed into
law by President Ronald Reagan under the Immigration Reform
and Control Act of 1986. Yet it is equally true that much of
the increase we have seen in annual immigration totals since
those years are also a result of that amnesty.
That brings us to an important point that illustrates why
many of those included in the 1996 increase do not represent
an increase in new people physically entering the United
States. In other words, many additional people being counted
as immigrants for the period 1996-1999 are already here.
Here is what happened as a result of the 1986 law: When
Congress granted amnesty to undocumented immigrants, it made
no additional visas available for close relatives of the
amnesty recipients, which eventually created a large backlog
in the category. Between 1986 and 1990, the INS adopted the
administrative policy of not deporting those relatives and
allowing them to obtain work authorization. In 1990, Congress
provided 55,000 visas a year to help these spouses and
children gain permanent residence and to remain lawfully
under Family Unity. Therefore, the spouses and children of
many immigrants legalized by the amnesty have been waiting
for their green cards while living with their sponsors in the
United States. Amnesty recipients have now completed their
five years of permanent residence required to apply for
citizenship. Now that those formerly illegal immigrants are
becoming citizens, under the law they can gain visas
immediately for their spouses and children without a waiting
list, since the spouses and children would be the immediate
relatives of U.S. citizens (and there is no quota on the
immediate relatives of U.S. citizens). In essence, that means
that much of the increase in immigration in 1996 and 1997--
most of which is in the category for the immediate relatives
of U.S. citizens--will be the INS handing out green cards to
spouses and children already physically here. It is that
accounting phenomenon that will disappear after a few years.
3. One Additional Factor: Unused Employment Visas
Another reason for the 1996 increase is the combination of
the lower immediate relatives total, which is related to the
INS processing delays, and unused employment visas from 1995.
Under U.S. law, if the number of immediate relatives of U.S.
citizens does not exceed a certain level (in practice
254,000), then the unused employment visas from that year are
added to the next year's total of family preference visas. In
1996, that made 85,000 more immigrant visas available to the
family preference categories. Under the law, all of those
additional visas went to the spouses and children of lawful
permanent residents. However, the way the law operates, those
additional visas will not be available in 1997 (because
immediate relative immigration in 1996 was above 254,000.)
The U.S. State Department has calculated that family
preference visas will decline from 311,819 in 1996 to 226,000
in 1997, a drop of 27 percent.\5\
Figure 1 (on page 1), based in part on INS projections,
shows that after a plateau is reached potentially in 1997,
but more likely in 1998, legal immigration is projected to
decline again. The latest information from the INS indicates
that 1998 may be the peak year. It is possible that due to
INS processing and naturalizations we will find that 1999
[[Page S3548]]
is the high point. Most important, however, is that these
numbers will decline after this short-term rise. Note that
the INS projections in Figure 1 did not take into account the
impact of the income and sponsorship requirements passed
under the 1996 immigration bill. Those new requirements are
expected to have at least some effect in reducing legal
immigration, particularly among spouses and children, that is
not reflected in the INS projections.
in historical terms, legal immigration remains moderate
As a percentage of the U.S. population--the most accurate
measurement of the impact of immigration--legal immigration
is moderate by historical standards. The annual rate of legal
immigration in 1996 equaled just 0.3 percent of the U.S.
population--less than one-third the rate near the turn of the
century and lower than every year in the nation's history
between 1840 and 1930. Even in absolute terms, the 1996 total
is less than the annual totals near the turn of the century
when America was smaller and less economically developed, and
therefore less capable of absorbing new people than it is
today. Numerically, legal immigration in 1996 was below the
level recorded in 10 other occasions since 1904.
conclusion
Our legal immigration system is based on America's
historical commitment to immigration and to the principle
that it is sound public policy to unite close family members,
help employers sponsor needed employees, and provide
humanitarian relief for those fleeing religious or political
persecution. While numbers are a part of the system, it is
important that we understand what the numbers mean and
approach them with a minimum of rhetoric, but rather with a
premium on intelligent debate.
Ben Wattenberg of the American Enterprise Institute
describes the current level of immigration using this
illustration: Imagine you are in a giant ballroom where 1,000
people are gathered for a Washington cocktail party.
Champagne is being poured, waiters are carrying trays of hors
d'oeuvers, and into the room walk three more people. Those
three people represent the proportion of the U.S. population
that immigrants add each year. There is little evidence these
immigrants are spoiling the party.
footnotes
\1\ INA Sections 201 and 203.
\2\ INA Section 202(a)(1) states that the ``total number of
immigrant visas made available to natives of any single
foreign state . . . may not exceed 7 percent'' in a fiscal
year. Under the law, 75 percent of the visas for the spouses
and children of lawful permanent residents are not subject to
the 7 percent ceiling.
\3\ Statement of Susan Martin, Executive Director, U.S.
Commission on Immigration Reform, Subcommittee on Immigration
and Claims, U.S. House of Representatives, May 16, 1996.
\4\ Opening Statement, Chairman Lamar Smith, ``Projected
Increases in Legal Immigration,'' Hearing Before the House
Subcommittee on Immigration and Claims, May 16, 1996, p. 3.
\5\ Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S.
Department of State, ``Various Determinations of Numerical
Limits of Immigrants Required Under the Terms of The
Immigration and Nationality Act as Amended by the Immigration
Act of 1990,'' for FY 1996 and FY 1997. Under the law, a
minimum of 226,000 family preference visas are available each
year.
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