[Congressional Record Volume 143, Number 49 (Wednesday, April 23, 1997)]
[Senate]
[Pages S3546-S3548]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]




SENATE IMMIGRATION SUBCOMMITTEE ANALYSIS OF 1996 INS LEGAL IMMIGRATION 
                                NUMBERS

  Mr. ABRAHAM. Mr. President, yesterday, the Immigration and 
Naturalization Service [INS] officially released its legal immigration 
numbers for 1996. Attached please find an analysis by the staff of the 
Senate Immigration Subcommittee that helps place these numbers into 
context.
  The analysis finds:
  First, the 1996 increase in immigration is not part of a long-term 
rise in legal immigration but rather a temporary increase.
  Second, many additional people being counted as immigrants in 1996 
and 1997 were not new entrants but were already physically in the 
country as the spouses of those who received amnesty under the law 
signed by President Reagan in 1986.
  Third, the increase is due largely to INS processing delays that 
caused many people who would have been counted as immigrants in 1995 to 
be counted in 1996.
  Fourth, after a 20-percent decline between 1993 and 1995, this short-
term increase in legal immigration numbers is expected to be followed 
by another decline to previous levels within 2 to 3 years.
  And finally, in historical terms, legal immigration is moderate when 
measured as a percentage of the U.S. population--0.3 percent--the most 
accurate measurement of immigrants' economic and demographic impact. 
Numerically, legal immigration in 1996 was below the level recorded on 
10 other occasions since 1904.
  As chairman of the Senate Immigation Subcommittee, I hope this 
analysis sheds light on the legal immigration numbers released 
yesterday by INS. I ask unanimous consent that the Senate Immigration 
Subcommittee's analysis of the 1996 INS legal immigration numbers be 
included in the Record. Mr. President, I yield the floor.
  There being no objection, the analysis was ordered to be printed in 
the Record, as follows:

[[Page S3547]]

                Senate Immigration Subcommittee Analysis


 1996 ins legal immigration increase part of a temporary rise followed 
 by decrease to previous levels; '86 amnesty, ins processing delays in 
                            '95 led to rise

       Washington.--The Immigration and Naturalization Service 
     (INS) today officially released its legal immigration numbers 
     for 1996. Attached please find an analysis by the staff of 
     the Senate Immigration Subcommittee that helps place these 
     numbers into context.
       The analysis finds:
       The 1996 increase in immigration is not part of a long-term 
     rise in legal immigration but rather a temporary increase.
       Many additional people being counted as immigrants in 1996 
     and 1997 were not new entrants but were already physically in 
     the country as the spouses of those who received amnesty 
     under the law signed by President Reagan in 1986.
       The increase is due largely to INS processing delays that 
     caused many people who would have been counted as immigrants 
     in 1995 to be counted in 1996.
       After a 20 percent decline between 1993 and 1995, this 
     short-term increase in legal immigration numbers is expected 
     to be followed by another decline to previous levels within 
     two to three years.
       In historic terms, legal immigration is moderate when 
     measured as a percentage of the U.S. population (0.3%)--the 
     most accurate measurement of immigrants' economic and 
     demographic impact. Numerically, legal immigration in 1996 
     was below the level recorded on 10 other occasions since 
     1904.

         An Analysis of the 1996 INS Legal Immigration Numbers


prepared by the staff of the senate subcommittee on immigration--april 
                                  1997

       Summary: Between 1993 and 1995, the level of legal 
     immigration declined by 20 percent. An analysis performed by 
     the Senate Subcommittee on Immigration has determined that 
     the increase in immigration reported by the INS for 1996 is 
     part of a temporary trend and that the overall immigration 
     numbers are projected to decline again within three years. 
     The analysis shows that legal immigration is projected to 
     plateau potentially in 1997, but more likely in 1998 or the 
     following year according to the latest INS projections--and 
     then to fall. Simply put, the 1996 increase from 1995 is not 
     part of a long-term rise in legal immigration.
       The subcommittee analysis shows that the approximately 27 
     percent increase in legal immigration in 1996, from 720,461 
     in 1995 to 915,900 in 1996, is explained by three factors: 
     (1) INS processing delays in 1995 that led immigrants to be 
     counted in 1996, rather than in 1995; (2) The aftermath of 
     the 1986 Amnesty signed by President Reagan, which has 
     enabled formerly undocumented immigrants to sponsor their 
     spouses and children; and (3) the result of unused employment 
     visas in 1995 that on a one-time basis boosted 1996's 
     available total for family preference visas.
       The 1996 immigration rate is lower than every year in the 
     nation's history between 1840 and 1930, actually one-third 
     the rate for many of those years, and lower even in absolute 
     terms than near the turn of the century. By the most accurate 
     measure of immigrants' demographic and economic impact on 
     America--the annual immigration total as a percentage of the 
     U.S. population--legal immigration remains moderate in 
     historical terms at only 0.3 percent of the populace.


               background on the legal immigration system

       Immigration categories are numerically restricted for 
     family and business, with the sole exception being the 
     ``immediate relatives'' of U.S. citizens, whose totals 
     changed little between 1986 and 1995. Their totals have risen 
     over the last year, but their rise is part of a short term 
     confluence of factors that is expected dissipate within the 
     next two to three years. Under U.S. law, an American citizen 
     can petition for (1) a spouse or minor child, (2) a parent, 
     (3) a married child or a child 21 or older, or (4) a brother 
     or sister. A lawful permanent resident (green card holder) 
     can petition only for a spouse or child.\1\ There are no 
     ``extended family'' categories for aunts or uncles in the 
     U.S. immigration system. Approximately three-quarters of all 
     family immigration visas went to the spouses and children 
     categories in 1996. The other one-fourth went to the parents 
     and sibling of U.S. citizens. In addition, up to 140,000 
     people a year can immigrate with employment-based visas. 
     Refugees are admitted after entering the country following 
     the annual consultative process by which Congress and the 
     President set each year's refugee totals. Finally, there are 
     a limited number of ``diversity'' visas distributed to 
     immigrants from ``underrepresented'' countries. In the 
     immigration system as a whole, no country may receive more 
     than 7 percent of the total visas allotted in a given year, 
     although an exception is made for the spouses and children of 
     lawful permanent residents.\2\


       legal immigration is projected to plateau and then decline

       The analysis performed by the staff of the Senate 
     Subcommittee on Immigration leads to one overarching 
     conclusion: The 1996 increase in immigration is not part of a 
     long-term rise in legal immigration but rather a temporary 
     increase.
       The conclusion that legal immigration will fall after a 
     temporary two- to three-year bump upwards is already part of 
     the public record. At a May 16, 1996 hearing before the House 
     Subcommittee on Immigration and Claims, Susan Martin, 
     executive director of the U.S. Commission on Immigration 
     Reform, stated, ``As the INS figures released on April 25 
     show, immigration levels will increase, without any change in 
     current law, for the next two years and then return to 
     approximately the level of last year.'' \3\ [Emphasis added.] 
     The 1995 total was 720,461, well below the 1996 total.
     1. Processing Delays Artificially Inflate 1996 Totals
       At the same hearing, House Immigration and Claims 
     Subcommittee Chair Lamar Smith (R-TX) correctly pinpointed 
     the primary reason that legal immigration was expected to 
     rise from 1995 to 1996. He stated, ``The FY 1995 figures were 
     artificially low. An administrative logjam prevented the 
     issuance in 1995 of immigrant visas to tens of thousands of 
     individuals who were eligible to receive them and to be 
     admitted immediately to the United States. This logjam 
     resulted from delays in processing applications for green 
     cards under section 245(i) of the Immigration and Nationality 
     Act, a new provision that was effective for the first time in 
     1995.'' \4\
       As Rep. Smith pointed out, a new procedure that allowed 
     people to obtain green cards in the United States rather than 
     having to travel to a consulate in their home countries 
     significantly increased processing at INS offices in 1995 and 
     caused delays. Those delays caused at least tens of thousands 
     of people who would have been counted as immigrants in 1995, 
     to be counted in 1996 instead. In other words, the 1996 
     increase is in many ways a bookkeeping phenomenon. As Figure 
     2 illustrates, when one smooths out the one-year blips in 
     1995 processing and other one-time anomalies and instead uses 
     two-year averages, the data show that since 1990 the general 
     direction in immigration has been downward.
     2. The Aftermath of the Amnesty Artificially Increased 1996 
         Totals: Many People Newly Counted Were Already in the 
         Country
       The years 1989, 1990, and 1991 were artificially high 
     because of the amnesty of undocumented immigrants signed into 
     law by President Ronald Reagan under the Immigration Reform 
     and Control Act of 1986. Yet it is equally true that much of 
     the increase we have seen in annual immigration totals since 
     those years are also a result of that amnesty.
       That brings us to an important point that illustrates why 
     many of those included in the 1996 increase do not represent 
     an increase in new people physically entering the United 
     States. In other words, many additional people being counted 
     as immigrants for the period 1996-1999 are already here.
       Here is what happened as a result of the 1986 law: When 
     Congress granted amnesty to undocumented immigrants, it made 
     no additional visas available for close relatives of the 
     amnesty recipients, which eventually created a large backlog 
     in the category. Between 1986 and 1990, the INS adopted the 
     administrative policy of not deporting those relatives and 
     allowing them to obtain work authorization. In 1990, Congress 
     provided 55,000 visas a year to help these spouses and 
     children gain permanent residence and to remain lawfully 
     under Family Unity. Therefore, the spouses and children of 
     many immigrants legalized by the amnesty have been waiting 
     for their green cards while living with their sponsors in the 
     United States. Amnesty recipients have now completed their 
     five years of permanent residence required to apply for 
     citizenship. Now that those formerly illegal immigrants are 
     becoming citizens, under the law they can gain visas 
     immediately for their spouses and children without a waiting 
     list, since the spouses and children would be the immediate 
     relatives of U.S. citizens (and there is no quota on the 
     immediate relatives of U.S. citizens). In essence, that means 
     that much of the increase in immigration in 1996 and 1997--
     most of which is in the category for the immediate relatives 
     of U.S. citizens--will be the INS handing out green cards to 
     spouses and children already physically here. It is that 
     accounting phenomenon that will disappear after a few years.
     3. One Additional Factor: Unused Employment Visas
       Another reason for the 1996 increase is the combination of 
     the lower immediate relatives total, which is related to the 
     INS processing delays, and unused employment visas from 1995. 
     Under U.S. law, if the number of immediate relatives of U.S. 
     citizens does not exceed a certain level (in practice 
     254,000), then the unused employment visas from that year are 
     added to the next year's total of family preference visas. In 
     1996, that made 85,000 more immigrant visas available to the 
     family preference categories. Under the law, all of those 
     additional visas went to the spouses and children of lawful 
     permanent residents. However, the way the law operates, those 
     additional visas will not be available in 1997 (because 
     immediate relative immigration in 1996 was above 254,000.) 
     The U.S. State Department has calculated that family 
     preference visas will decline from 311,819 in 1996 to 226,000 
     in 1997, a drop of 27 percent.\5\
       Figure 1 (on page 1), based in part on INS projections, 
     shows that after a plateau is reached potentially in 1997, 
     but more likely in 1998, legal immigration is projected to 
     decline again. The latest information from the INS indicates 
     that 1998 may be the peak year. It is possible that due to 
     INS processing and naturalizations we will find that 1999

[[Page S3548]]

     is the high point. Most important, however, is that these 
     numbers will decline after this short-term rise. Note that 
     the INS projections in Figure 1 did not take into account the 
     impact of the income and sponsorship requirements passed 
     under the 1996 immigration bill. Those new requirements are 
     expected to have at least some effect in reducing legal 
     immigration, particularly among spouses and children, that is 
     not reflected in the INS projections.


        in historical terms, legal immigration remains moderate

       As a percentage of the U.S. population--the most accurate 
     measurement of the impact of immigration--legal immigration 
     is moderate by historical standards. The annual rate of legal 
     immigration in 1996 equaled just 0.3 percent of the U.S. 
     population--less than one-third the rate near the turn of the 
     century and lower than every year in the nation's history 
     between 1840 and 1930. Even in absolute terms, the 1996 total 
     is less than the annual totals near the turn of the century 
     when America was smaller and less economically developed, and 
     therefore less capable of absorbing new people than it is 
     today. Numerically, legal immigration in 1996 was below the 
     level recorded in 10 other occasions since 1904.


                               conclusion

       Our legal immigration system is based on America's 
     historical commitment to immigration and to the principle 
     that it is sound public policy to unite close family members, 
     help employers sponsor needed employees, and provide 
     humanitarian relief for those fleeing religious or political 
     persecution. While numbers are a part of the system, it is 
     important that we understand what the numbers mean and 
     approach them with a minimum of rhetoric, but rather with a 
     premium on intelligent debate.
       Ben Wattenberg of the American Enterprise Institute 
     describes the current level of immigration using this 
     illustration: Imagine you are in a giant ballroom where 1,000 
     people are gathered for a Washington cocktail party. 
     Champagne is being poured, waiters are carrying trays of hors 
     d'oeuvers, and into the room walk three more people. Those 
     three people represent the proportion of the U.S. population 
     that immigrants add each year. There is little evidence these 
     immigrants are spoiling the party.


                               footnotes

     \1\ INA Sections 201 and 203.
     \2\ INA Section 202(a)(1) states that the ``total number of 
     immigrant visas made available to natives of any single 
     foreign state . . . may not exceed 7 percent'' in a fiscal 
     year. Under the law, 75 percent of the visas for the spouses 
     and children of lawful permanent residents are not subject to 
     the 7 percent ceiling.
     \3\ Statement of Susan Martin, Executive Director, U.S. 
     Commission on Immigration Reform, Subcommittee on Immigration 
     and Claims, U.S. House of Representatives, May 16, 1996.
     \4\ Opening Statement, Chairman Lamar Smith, ``Projected 
     Increases in Legal Immigration,'' Hearing Before the House 
     Subcommittee on Immigration and Claims, May 16, 1996, p. 3.
     \5\ Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. 
     Department of State, ``Various Determinations of Numerical 
     Limits of Immigrants Required Under the Terms of The 
     Immigration and Nationality Act as Amended by the Immigration 
     Act of 1990,'' for FY 1996 and FY 1997. Under the law, a 
     minimum of 226,000 family preference visas are available each 
     year.

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