[Congressional Record Volume 142, Number 106 (Thursday, July 18, 1996)]
[Senate]
[Page S8301]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]




      ``CAN DOLE ESCAPE SENATE LEADERS' POOR PRESIDENTIAL RECORD?

  Mr. LEAHY. Mr. President, Prof. Garrison Nelson is one of our 
country's foremost experts on Congress and the Presidency, and Vermont 
has been lucky to call him our own during his tenure at the University 
of Vermont. He recently wrote an interesting column for Roll Call about 
the historical record of Senate leaders who run for president. It is an 
entertaining and informative analysis that I hope other Senators will 
have a chance to read.
  I ask that an article entitled ``Can Dole Escape Senate Leaders' Poor 
Presidential Record?'' be printed in the Record.
  The article follows:

       Can Dole Escape Senate Leaders' Poor Presidential Record?

       Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole's (R-Kan) decision to 
     resign from office in the midst of his presidential campaign 
     isn't so surprising when you take into account the history of 
     Republican Senate leaders in presidential contests.
       That's because, almost without exception, a Congressional 
     leadership post has been the kiss of death for White House 
     aspirants.
       Dole is the latest of several Congressional leaders 
     throughout the nation's history who have sought the 
     presidency. Whether he, by abandoning his post, will have 
     more success than others did remains to be seen.
       In a recent assessment, I found some 112 broadly defined 
     ``blips'' made by Congressional leaders on the presidential 
     radar screen from 1856 through 1966. These ``blips'' 
     represent instances of Congressional leaders who appeared 
     anywhere on the presidential (or vice presidential) charts--
     whether in delegate votes at the nominating conventions, or 
     popular votes during the presidential primaries, or in 
     discernible mentions in public opinion speculations about 
     candidacies.
       Some of these ``blips'' were trivial: ``favorite son'' 
     votes at the convention or passing mentions in the opinion 
     polls. But others had real meaning.
       Prior to the passage in 1912 of the 17th Amendment, which 
     instituted direct election of Senators, House leaders had a 
     clear edge over Senate counterparts in the presidential 
     calculus of the party kingmakers who put tickets together. 
     This was particularly true to Republican conventions, which 
     gave House leaders 20 considerations to only six for Senate 
     leaders during the selections made in some 15 conventions.
       While the Democratic conventions in the 1856-1912 era may 
     have divided their presidential and vice presidential 
     considerations for Congressional leaders between the two 
     chambers equally--11 to 11--the point was relatively moot 
     because Republican nominees won 11 of the 15 presidential 
     contests.
       Not until 1964 was a Democratic Congressional leader 
     nominated for president: Lyndon Johnson (Texas), who had 
     begun his executive service as vice president and was already 
     seated as president at the time of the convention.
       Republican Congressional leaders have been more successful 
     at gaining the presidential brass ring. The first Republican 
     Congressional leader to be nominated for the top executive 
     post was House Speaker Schuyler Colfax (Ind), who was 
     nominated and elected as Ulysses S. Grant's first vice 
     president in 1868.
       Four times in the 20 years between 1880 and 1900, past and 
     present House floor leaders were nominated for president by 
     Republican conventions.
       Since then, almost a century has passed, and only one House 
     Republican leader has been nominated for either post and that 
     was Gerald Ford's 1976 selection as president. But Ford was 
     already president at the time, albeit unelected, and had not 
     made it onto the presidential screen at any time during his 
     nine-year stint as House Republican floor leader.
       Senate leaders have been slow to develop as nominees. While 
     two sitting Senators were nominated and elected--Ohio's 
     Warren Harding in 1920 and Massachusetts's John Kennedy in 
     1960--it is important to remember that neither held a 
     leadership post.
       It was not until 1928 that the nominating conventions took 
     serious note of sitting Senate floor leaders. That year, both 
     parties chose their respective Senate floor leaders as vice 
     presidential candidates. Republican Charles Curtis of Kansas 
     ran with Commerce Secretary Herbert Hoover while Democrat 
     Joseph Robinson of Arkansas ran with New York Gov. Al Smith.
       House Democrats were the least likely to be nominated, with 
     their 18 considerations generating only two vice presidential 
     nominations--both for Speaker ``Cactus'' Jack Garner of Texas 
     in 1932 and 1936. But both nominations were successful. 
     Running with FDR made the cantankerous former Speaker 
     electable.
       House Republicans picked off six nominations for their 26 
     considerations--double the rate of the House Democrats. But 
     only one occurred in the past 90 years.
       Senate Democratic leaders garnered the most considerations 
     (41), as well as the most presidential and vice presidential 
     nominations (seven). All four of their victories came after 
     World War II. Among them were: Majority Leader Alben Barkley 
     (Ky.) for vice president in 1948; Majority Leader Johnson for 
     vice president in 1960 and president in 1964; and Whip Hubert 
     Humphrey for vice president in 1964.
       But it is Senate Republican leaders who seem to have 
     encountered the most difficulty. They received 27 
     considerations, but only five nominations--only one of which 
     was for president (Dole, this year, which has yet to be 
     officially confirmed).
       Their four vice presidential nominations produced only one 
     victory--Curtis in 1928. So the 26 considerations which the 
     Senate Republican leaders received prior to 1996 produced one 
     vice presidential victory--a success rate of 4 percent, the 
     lowest for any of the four Congressional leadership 
     categories.
       Even though it was a fellow Kansan who earned the lone 
     victory by a Senate Republican leader, clearly Dole made the 
     right move in getting out of the Senate. He has escaped the 
     Temple of Presidential Doom.
       Now if he can just convince voters that he never held a 
     leadership post there, he might be able to move up in the 
     polls and avoid the kiss of death that those posts seem to be 
     in presidential politics.

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