[Congressional Record Volume 142, Number 106 (Thursday, July 18, 1996)]
[Senate]
[Page S8301]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
``CAN DOLE ESCAPE SENATE LEADERS' POOR PRESIDENTIAL RECORD?
Mr. LEAHY. Mr. President, Prof. Garrison Nelson is one of our
country's foremost experts on Congress and the Presidency, and Vermont
has been lucky to call him our own during his tenure at the University
of Vermont. He recently wrote an interesting column for Roll Call about
the historical record of Senate leaders who run for president. It is an
entertaining and informative analysis that I hope other Senators will
have a chance to read.
I ask that an article entitled ``Can Dole Escape Senate Leaders' Poor
Presidential Record?'' be printed in the Record.
The article follows:
Can Dole Escape Senate Leaders' Poor Presidential Record?
Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole's (R-Kan) decision to
resign from office in the midst of his presidential campaign
isn't so surprising when you take into account the history of
Republican Senate leaders in presidential contests.
That's because, almost without exception, a Congressional
leadership post has been the kiss of death for White House
aspirants.
Dole is the latest of several Congressional leaders
throughout the nation's history who have sought the
presidency. Whether he, by abandoning his post, will have
more success than others did remains to be seen.
In a recent assessment, I found some 112 broadly defined
``blips'' made by Congressional leaders on the presidential
radar screen from 1856 through 1966. These ``blips''
represent instances of Congressional leaders who appeared
anywhere on the presidential (or vice presidential) charts--
whether in delegate votes at the nominating conventions, or
popular votes during the presidential primaries, or in
discernible mentions in public opinion speculations about
candidacies.
Some of these ``blips'' were trivial: ``favorite son''
votes at the convention or passing mentions in the opinion
polls. But others had real meaning.
Prior to the passage in 1912 of the 17th Amendment, which
instituted direct election of Senators, House leaders had a
clear edge over Senate counterparts in the presidential
calculus of the party kingmakers who put tickets together.
This was particularly true to Republican conventions, which
gave House leaders 20 considerations to only six for Senate
leaders during the selections made in some 15 conventions.
While the Democratic conventions in the 1856-1912 era may
have divided their presidential and vice presidential
considerations for Congressional leaders between the two
chambers equally--11 to 11--the point was relatively moot
because Republican nominees won 11 of the 15 presidential
contests.
Not until 1964 was a Democratic Congressional leader
nominated for president: Lyndon Johnson (Texas), who had
begun his executive service as vice president and was already
seated as president at the time of the convention.
Republican Congressional leaders have been more successful
at gaining the presidential brass ring. The first Republican
Congressional leader to be nominated for the top executive
post was House Speaker Schuyler Colfax (Ind), who was
nominated and elected as Ulysses S. Grant's first vice
president in 1868.
Four times in the 20 years between 1880 and 1900, past and
present House floor leaders were nominated for president by
Republican conventions.
Since then, almost a century has passed, and only one House
Republican leader has been nominated for either post and that
was Gerald Ford's 1976 selection as president. But Ford was
already president at the time, albeit unelected, and had not
made it onto the presidential screen at any time during his
nine-year stint as House Republican floor leader.
Senate leaders have been slow to develop as nominees. While
two sitting Senators were nominated and elected--Ohio's
Warren Harding in 1920 and Massachusetts's John Kennedy in
1960--it is important to remember that neither held a
leadership post.
It was not until 1928 that the nominating conventions took
serious note of sitting Senate floor leaders. That year, both
parties chose their respective Senate floor leaders as vice
presidential candidates. Republican Charles Curtis of Kansas
ran with Commerce Secretary Herbert Hoover while Democrat
Joseph Robinson of Arkansas ran with New York Gov. Al Smith.
House Democrats were the least likely to be nominated, with
their 18 considerations generating only two vice presidential
nominations--both for Speaker ``Cactus'' Jack Garner of Texas
in 1932 and 1936. But both nominations were successful.
Running with FDR made the cantankerous former Speaker
electable.
House Republicans picked off six nominations for their 26
considerations--double the rate of the House Democrats. But
only one occurred in the past 90 years.
Senate Democratic leaders garnered the most considerations
(41), as well as the most presidential and vice presidential
nominations (seven). All four of their victories came after
World War II. Among them were: Majority Leader Alben Barkley
(Ky.) for vice president in 1948; Majority Leader Johnson for
vice president in 1960 and president in 1964; and Whip Hubert
Humphrey for vice president in 1964.
But it is Senate Republican leaders who seem to have
encountered the most difficulty. They received 27
considerations, but only five nominations--only one of which
was for president (Dole, this year, which has yet to be
officially confirmed).
Their four vice presidential nominations produced only one
victory--Curtis in 1928. So the 26 considerations which the
Senate Republican leaders received prior to 1996 produced one
vice presidential victory--a success rate of 4 percent, the
lowest for any of the four Congressional leadership
categories.
Even though it was a fellow Kansan who earned the lone
victory by a Senate Republican leader, clearly Dole made the
right move in getting out of the Senate. He has escaped the
Temple of Presidential Doom.
Now if he can just convince voters that he never held a
leadership post there, he might be able to move up in the
polls and avoid the kiss of death that those posts seem to be
in presidential politics.
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