[Congressional Record Volume 141, Number 189 (Wednesday, November 29, 1995)]
[Extensions of Remarks]
[Page E2260]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]




                          WORLD FOOD SUPPLIES

                                 ______


                          HON. LEE H. HAMILTON

                               of indiana

                    in the house of representatives

                      Wednesday, November 29, 1995

  Mr. HAMILTION. Mr. Speaker, I would like to insert my Washington 
Report for Wednesday, November 15, 1995 into the Congressional Record.

                       Future World Food Supplies

       The tightening of world food supplies in recent years has 
     led many people to wonder about the long-term food outlook. 
     Will we be facing an era of major shortages driven by world 
     population growth that will mean sharp price increases for 
     some and food scarcity and famine for others? Or will 
     research advances and improved farm productivity be enough to 
     meet the growing world needs? The long-term predictions have 
     important implications for U.S. food and agricultural policy 
     and for Hoosier farmers.


                            current supplies

       In recent years, world grain supplies have tightened 
     considerably. The world's grain harvest has not increased in 
     any of the last five years, and since 1992 world grain 
     consumption has exceeded production. Grain stocks carried 
     over from one year to the next are at record lows. In the 
     U.S., lower production, strong export demand, and reforms 
     making farm programs more market oriented have meant that 
     this year--for the first time since World War II--there are 
     basically no surplus stocks in government-owned reserves. The 
     tight supplies have led to steep price increases for wheat, 
     rice, and corn.


                         long-term projections

       Some people look at the current tight supplies and see 
     things only getting worse. They believe that world population 
     growth, increasingly scarce water and land resources, and the 
     demand for better diets in developing countries will mean an 
     era of major food scarcity. Others are optimistic. They point 
     to advancing farm technology, unused cropland, and potential 
     to modernize farm production in developing countries. On this 
     view, feeding billions more around the world could easily be 
     done.
       The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released 
     a major study on the outlook for world food supplies that 
     comes down in between these two views. Looking at the next 10 
     years, the report sees no looming crisis in food supplies. 
     The report expects production to grow at basically the same 
     rate as population, so grain use per person will remain 
     relatively unchanged. World prices for wheat and rice are 
     expected to lag only slightly behind inflation.
       Explaining the increased demand, USDA emphasized the 
     importance of world population growth--from 5.5 billion to 
     6.6 billion over the next decade--as well as efforts by 
     countries like China to improve their diets. Yet world food 
     production is expected to keep pace, more through higher 
     yields than expanded cropland. Crop yields, however, are 
     expected to grow more slowly than in the past because high-
     yielding rice and wheat varieties have been widely adopted 
     and no similar research advances are anticipated soon.


                             food shortages

       While the USDA report projected adequate global food 
     supplies, it also concluded that there will be major food 
     shortages in some parts of the world. And on that score USDA 
     was not optimistic. Currently some 800 million people--15% of 
     the world's population--have inadequate diets, with many of 
     them suffering from severe malnutrition. The study projected 
     that food aid needs will double over the next decade, even 
     under relatively optimistic assumptions of increased food 
     production in the developing countries. The problem of food 
     shortages is largely financial--the inability of poorer 
     countries to buy adequate food.
       The world food situation is like a basket half empty and 
     half full. More people are adequately fed than ever before 
     and much more food is available than in past decades. At the 
     same time, there are still more hungry people in the world 
     than ever before, both in absolute numbers and as a 
     percentage of total world population.


                         agricultural research

       One clear message from the long-term food supply 
     projections is that we need to continue to support 
     agricultural research. The U.S. agricultural research system 
     has been a major reason for the productivity of our farmers, 
     and continued research will be crucial in the years ahead to 
     helping them meet the ever-growing markets for food.
       Yet agricultural research faces federal budget cuts. 
     Funding in 1996 will be below this year's level, and Congress 
     will consider various reforms in the months ahead. We need to 
     balance the budget, but deep cuts in agricultural research 
     would be short-sighted.


                             farm programs

       The increasing world food needs also mean that we should 
     reform current federal farm programs to open up more farmland 
     to production. Currently some 15 percent of U.S. cropland is 
     being idled through federal commodity programs designed to 
     help stabilize supplies and through Conservation Reserve 
     programs designed to protect fragile cropland.
       Reforms are currently being considered in Congress to 
     reduce government land set-asides, allow farmers to withdraw 
     less-sensitive land from the Conservation Reserve, and allow 
     farmers more planting flexibility to react to world market 
     needs. I support such efforts.


                                food aid

       We also need to improve U.S. food aid programs. since the 
     end of World War II, the U.S. has been the world's bulwark 
     against famine. This year we will provide $1.3 billion in 
     food aid--about 1/10 of 1 percent of the total federal 
     budget. Food aid benefits not just needy people overseas but 
     also U.S. farmers, by providing a market for their current 
     production and by laying the groundwork for future export 
     sales. Of the 50 largest buyers of American farm goods, 43 
     are countries that formerly received U.S. food aid. Former 
     food aid recipients purchase more than $35 billion in U.S. 
     agricultural products each year. By helping feed the needy we 
     also create major new markets for our exports.
       But food aid programs also face budget cuts, and it is 
     clear that we will have to do more with less. That's why 
     recent Clinton Administration efforts to overhaul and 
     ``reinvent'' food aid programs--better coordinating 
     assistance and focusing much more on measuring and managing 
     for results--are a step in the right direction.


                               conclusion

       Long-term projections about global food supplies and needs 
     are very tentative, and are highly sensitive to even the 
     smallest changes in assumptions. The latest projections are 
     generally reassuring for those of us in the U.S., but they 
     also indicate the need for a long-term view in our food and 
     agricultural policies. We must continue to invest in the 
     ability of U.S. farmers to meet the needs of global markets.

                          ____________________