[Congressional Record Volume 141, Number 179 (Monday, November 13, 1995)]
[Senate]
[Pages S17006-S17007]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]




             ADMINISTRATION STUDIES ON WELFARE LEGISLATION

 Mr. MOYNIHAN. Mr. President, on Thursday, November 9, 1995, 
the Office of Management and Budget released a study requested on 
October 24 by the Senator from New York and 11 other members of the 
conference committee on the welfare legislation. The OMB study 
concludes that the Senate welfare bill would push 1.2 million children 
into poverty, while the House bill would force 2.1 million children 
into poverty.
  Also on November 9, the Department of Health and Human Services 
released a separate report containing data on the number of children 
who would be cut off from welfare benefits as a result of the time 
limits in both bills. Under the 5-year time limit required by the House 
welfare bill, 4.3 million children would become ineligible for Federal 
benefits by the time of full implementation. The Senate bill would cut 
off 3.3 million children.
  Mr. President, I ask that excerpts from both studies be printed in 
the Congressional Record.
  The excerpts follow:

      TABLE 1.--PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF THE NUMBER OF CHILDREN DENIED AFDC DUE TO THE 60 MONTH TIME LIMIT: UNDER THE HOUSE AND SENATE WELFARE BILLS     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                  Number of                             Number of                       
                                                                               children denied     Percentage of     children denied     Percentage of  
                                                            Projected number    AFDC under the    children denied     AFDC under the    children denied 
                                                             of children on       House bill      AFDC because the     senate bill      AFDC because the
                                                              AFDC in 2005       because the      family received      because the      family received 
                                                           under current law   family received     AFDC for more     family received     AFDC for more  
                                                                                AFDC for more      than 60 months     AFDC for more      than 60 months 
                                                                                than 60 months                        than 60 months                    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
State:                                                                                                                                                  
    Alabama..............................................            122,000             32,697                 28             25,013                 21
    Alaska...............................................             30,000              9,072                 32              7,902                 26
    Arizona..............................................            170,000             50,154                 31             39,433                 23
    Arkansas.............................................             63,000             17,075                 29             14,476                 23
    California...........................................          2,241,000            948,677                 45            749,922                 33
    Colorado.............................................            101,000             30,570                 32             23,259                 23
    Connecticut..........................................            136,000             46,386                 36             32,815                 24
    Delaware.............................................             28,000              8,422                 32              6,408                 23
    District of Columbia.................................             56,000             26,086                 49             19,556                 35
    Florida..............................................            605,000            150,149                 26            111,926                 19
    Georgia..............................................            348,000            135,319                 41             98,377                 28
    Hawaii...............................................             48,000             15,187                 33             10,979                 23
    Idaho................................................             17,000              3,997                 25              3,427                 20
    Illinois.............................................            598,000            227,477                 40            170,122                 28
    Indiana..............................................            177,000             59,905                 36             44,914                 25
    Iowa.................................................             82,000             25,084                 32             18,727                 23
    Kansas...............................................             73,000             24,005                 35             19,162                 26
    Kentucky.............................................            187,000             52,970                 30             38,398                 21
    Louisiana............................................            235,000             85,702                 38             66,900                 28
    Maine................................................             55,000             21,934                 42             16,090                 29
    Maryland.............................................            185,000             72,393                 41             54,817                 30
    Massachusetts........................................            256,000             95,402                 39             71,770                 28
    Michigan.............................................            553,000            275,880                 52            213,522                 39
    Minnesota............................................            155,000             55,886                 38             41,332                 27
    Mississippi..........................................            153,000             46,807                 32             33,399                 22
    Missouri.............................................            218,000             79,099                 38             60,813                 28
    Montana..............................................             28,000              7,208                 27              5,677                 20
    Nebraska.............................................             39,000             12,461                 34              9,029                 23
    Nevada...............................................             30,000              9,378                 33              6,889                 23
    New Hampshire........................................             24,000              7,664                 34              5,841                 24
    New Jersey...........................................            302,000            121,217                 42             91,373                 30
    New Mexico...........................................             72,000             18,521                 27             14,279                 20
    New York.............................................            917,000            339,748                 39            261,306                 28
    North Carolina.......................................            281,000            102,353                 38             79,410                 28
    North Dakota.........................................             15,000              4,743                 33              3,019                 20
    Ohio.................................................            597,000            164,001                 29            130,185                 22
    Oklahoma.............................................            111,000             40,752                 39             30,866                 28
    Oregon...............................................             97,000             31,974                 35             24,385                 25
    Pennsylvania.........................................            517,000            238,855                 49            189,759                 37
    Rhode Island.........................................             52,000             19,286                 39             16,224                 31
    South Carolina.......................................            135,000             33,390                 26             25,488                 19
    South Dakota.........................................             18,000              6,736                 39              5,060                 28
    Tennessee............................................            246,000             73,059                 31             53,450                 22
    Texas................................................            670,000            181,695                 29            137,641                 21
    Utah.................................................             45,000             11,616                 27              8,838                 20
    Vermont..............................................             22,000              7,565                 36              5,561                 25
    Virginia.............................................            166,000             51,987                 33             38,050                 23
    Washington...........................................            237,000             82,401                 37             62,774                 26
    West Virginia........................................             93,000             32,898                 37             23,230                 25
    Wisconsin............................................            205,000             54,127                 28             40,460                 20
    Wyoming..............................................             14,000              4,266                 32              3,115                 22
    Territories..........................................            173,000             44,677                 27             33,806                 20
                                                          ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total..............................................         12,000,000          4,300,000                 38          3,300,000                 28
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Notes: 1. HHS/ASPE analysis. States may not sum to national total due to rounding. 2. The analysis shows the impact at full implementation. 3. The    
  analysis assumes states fully utilize the hardship exemption from the time limit: 10% in the House and 20% in the Senate.                             
                                                                                                                                                        
  Source: Department of Health and Human Services.                                                                                                      

 Potential Poverty and Distributional Effects of Welfare Reform Bills 
                       and Balanced Budget Plans

 (Presented by the Office of Management and Budget, Prepared with the 
    Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of the 
            Treasury, and Other Agencies, November 9, 1995)

    TABLE 1.--THE IMPACT OF CONGRESSIONAL PROPOSALS ON POVERTY--USING A COMPREHENSIVE POST-TAX, POST-TRANSFER   
                                              DEFINITION OF INCOME                                              
                           [Simulates effects of full implementation in 1993 dollars]                           
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     Effect of 1993     House budget plan  Senate budget plan                   
                                         changes      ---------------------------------------- Senate Democratic
                                  --------------------                                          welfare plan \1\
                                     Prior    Current   Entire    Welfare   Entire    Welfare      (S. 1117)    
                                      law       law      plan      bill      plan      bill                     
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Children under 18:                                                                                              
    Number in poverty (millions).      10.8      10.0      12.3      12.1      11.6      11.2  10.1 to 10.5     
    Change from current law......  ........  ........       2.3       2.1       1.7       1.2  0.1 to 0.5       

[[Page S 17007]]
                                                                                                                
    Poverty rate (percent).......      15.5      14.4      17.6      17.4      16.8      16.2  .................
    Change from current law......  ........  ........       3.3       3.0       2.4       1.8  .................
Families with children:                                                                                         
    Number in poverty (millions).      18.3      17.0      20.9      20.6      19.9      19.2  17.2 to 18.0     
    Change from current law......  ........  ........       3.9       3.7       2.9       2.2  0.2 to 1.0       
    Poverty rate (percent).......      12.6      11.7      14.4      14.3      13.8      13.3  .................
    Change from current law......  ........  ........       2.7       2.5       2.0       1.5  .................
    Poverty gap (billions).......      17.6      16.2      24.8      24.3      21.5      20.6  .................
    Change from current law......  ........  ........       8.6       8.1       5.3       4.4  .................
All persons:                                                                                                    
    Number in poverty (millions).      29.5      28.1      32.6      32.1      31.6      30.7  28.3 to 29.3     
    Change from current law......  ........  ........       4.5       4.0       3.5       2.6  0.2 to 1.2       
    Poverty rate (percent).......      11.3      10.8      12.6      12.4      12.2      11.8  .................
    Change from current law......  ........  ........       1.7       1.6       1.3       1.0  .................
    Poverty gap (billions).......      48.6      46.8      57.4      56.2      54.0      52.3  .................
    Change from current law......  ........  ........      10.6       9.3       7.2       5.5  .................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \1\ These estimates of the Senate Democratic bill are preliminary. The Senate Democratic welfare reform bill  
  is being modeled, but results are not ready yet. The poverty effects are much smaller than that of the bills  
  that were passed because it ensures States have adequate funding for work programs and child care, ensures    
  that children can receive vouchers for housing and other needs after their parents reach the time limit for   
  receiving cash assistance, ensures States have adequate funding for benefits regardless of the economy; and   
  has much smaller cuts in SSI and food programs.                                                               
                                                                                                                
  Notes.--The Census Bureau publishes a family of poverty statistics using alternative definitions of income.   
  The definition of income displayed here includes the effect of taxes (including EITC). Food Stamps, housing   
  programs, and school meal programs. Changes in government-provided health coverage are not included, not are  
  there any adjustments for medical costs. Numbers may not add due to rounding.                                 
                                                                                                                
  Source.--HHS's microsimulation model, based on data from the March 1994 Current Population Survey.            



 TABLE 2.--THE IMPACT OF CONGRESSIONAL PROPOSALS ON POVERTY--UNDER THE PRE-TAX MONEY INCOME DEFINITION USED FOR 
                                           OFFICIAL POVERTY STATISTICS                                          
                           [Simulates effects of full implementation in 1993 dollars]                           
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     Effect of 1993     House budget plan  Senate budget plan                   
                                         changes      ---------------------------------------- Senate Democratic
                                  --------------------                                          welfare plan \1\
                                     Prior    Current   Entire    Welfare   Entire    Welfare       (S 1117)    
                                      law       law      plan      bill      plan      bill                     
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Children under 18:                                                                                              
    Number in poverty (millions).      15.5      15.5      16.0      16.0      15.8      15.8  15.3 to 15.7     
    Change from current law......  ........  ........       0.5       0.5       0.3       0.3  -0.2 to 0.2      
    Poverty rate (percent).......      22.3      22.3      23.1      23.1      22.8      22.8  .................
    Change from current law......  ........  ........       0.7       0.7       0.5       0.4  .................
Families with children:                                                                                         
    Number in poverty (millions).      26.5      26.5      27.5      27.5      27.2      27.2  26.1 to 26.9     
    Change from current law......  ........  ........       1.0       1.0       0.7       0.6  -0.4 to 0.4      
    Poverty rate (percent).......      18.3      18.3      19.0      19.0      18.8      18.8  .................
    Change from current law......  ........  ........       0.7       0.7       0.5       0.4  .................
    Poverty gap (billions).......      41.6      41.6      50.6      50.6      47.0      46.9  .................
    Change from current law......  ........  ........       9.0       9.0       5.4       5.3  .................
All persons:                                                                                                    
    Number in poverty (millions).      38.8      38.8      39.9      39.9      39.6      39.6  38.4 to 39.4     
    Change from current law......  ........  ........       1.1       1.1       0.9       0.8  -0.4 to 0.6      
    Poverty rate (percent).......      14.9      14.9      15.4      15.4      15.3      15.2  .................
    Change from current law......  ........  ........       0.4       04.       0.3       0.3  .................
    Poverty gap (billions).......      76.3      76.3      85.9      85.9      82.9      82.5  .................
    Change from current law......  ........  ........       9.6       9.6       6.6       6.2  .................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \1\ These estimates of the Senate Democratic bill are preliminary. The Senate Democratic welfare reform bill  
  is being modeled, but results are not ready yet. The poverty effects are much smaller than that of the bills  
  that were passed because it ensures States have adequate funding for work programs and child care; ensures    
  that children can receive vouchers for housing and other needs after their parents reach the time limit for   
  receiving cash assistance; ensures States have adequate funding for benefits regardless of the economy; and   
  has much smaller cuts in SSI and food programs.                                                               
                                                                                                                
  Notes.--The definition used for official poverty statistics counts all cash income, but excludes the effect of
  taxes (and EITC). Food Stamps, housing programs, and other near-cash government assistance programs. Numbers  
  may not add due to rounding.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                
  Sources.--HHS's microsimulation model, based on data from the March 1994 Current Population Survey.   



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