[Congressional Record Volume 141, Number 164 (Monday, October 23, 1995)]
[Senate]
[Pages S15490-S15491]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]




                               THE BUDGET

  Mr. HOLLINGS. Mr. President, what I want to do, right quickly is, 
first to put in the Record the letter of October 20 from June E. 
O'Neill. I ask unanimous consent to have the letter from the 
Congressional Budget Office printed in the Record at this particular 
point.
  There being no objection, the letter was ordered to be printed in the 
Record, as follows:

                                                    U.S. Congress,


                                  Congressional Budget Office,

                                 Washington, DC. October 20, 1995.
     Hon. Kent Conrad,
     U.S. Senate, Washington, DC.
       Dear Senator: Pursuant to Section 205(a) of the budget 
     resolution for fiscal year 1996 (H. Con. Res. 67), the 
     Congressional Budget Office provided the Chairman of the 
     Senate Budget Committee on October 18 with a projection of 
     the budget deficits or surpluses that would result from 
     enactment of the reconciliation legislation submitted to the 
     Budget Committee. As specified in section 205(a), CBO 
     provided projections (using the economic and technical 
     assumptions underlying the budget resolution and assuming the 
     level of discretionary spending specified in that resolution) 
     of the deficit or surplus of the total budget-that is, the 
     deficit or surplus resulting from all budgetary transactions 
     of the federal government, including Social Security and 
     Postal Service spending and receipts that are designated as 
     off-budget transactions. As stated in the letter to Chairman 
     Domenici, CBO projected that there will be a total-budget 
     surplus of $10 billion in 2002. Excluding an estimated off-
     budget surplus of $115 billion in 2002 from the calculation, 
     CBO would project an on-budget deficit of $105 billion in 
     2002. (The letter you received yesterday incorrectly stated 
     these two figures.)
       If you wish further details on this projection, we will be 
     pleased to provide them. The staff contact is Jim Horney.
           Sincerely,
                                        June E. O'Neill, Director.

  Mr. HOLLINGS. While the distinguished Senator from New Hampshire said 
that the Republican budget was ``certified as being balanced,'' this 
letter certifies a $105 billion deficit.
  Now, I would also ask unanimous consent that we insert two budget 
tables in the Record which have been prepared with the help of my 
staff.
  There being no objection, the tables were ordered to be printed in 
the Record, as follows:

                                                  BUDGET TABLES                                                 
                                              [Outlays in billions]                                             
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                           Gross                
               Year                  Government  Trust funds    Unified        Real       Federal       Gross   
                                       budget                   deficit      deficit        debt       interest 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1968..............................        178.1          3.1        -25.2        -28.3        368.7         14.6
1969..............................        183.6         -0.3         +3.2         +2.9        365.8         16.6
1970..............................        195.6         12.3         -2.8        -15.1        380.9         19.3
1971..............................        210.2          4.3        -23.0        -27.3        408.2         21.0
1972..............................        230.7          4.3        -23.4        -27.7        435.9         21.8
1973..............................        245.7         15.5        -14.9        -30.4        466.3         24.2
1974..............................        269.4         11.5         -6.1        -17.6        483.9         29.3
1975..............................        332.3          4.8        -53.2        -58.0        541.9         32.7
1976..............................        371.8         13.4        -73.7        -87.1        629.0         37.1
1977..............................        409.2         23.7        -53.7        -77.4        706.4         41.9
1978..............................        458.7         11.0        -59.2        -70.2        776.6         48.7
1979..............................        504.0         12.2        -40.7        -52.9        829.5         59.9
1980..............................        590.9          5.8        -73.8        -79.6        909.1         74.8
1981..............................        678.2          6.7        -79.0        -85.7        994.8         95.5
1982..............................        745.8         14.5       -128.0       -142.5      1,137.3        117.2
1983..............................        808.4         26.6       -207.8       -234.4      1,371.7        128.7
1984..............................        851.8          7.6       -185.4       -193.0      1,564.7        153.9
1985..............................        946.4         40.6       -212.3       -252.9      1,817.6        178.9
1986..............................        990.3         81.8       -221.2       -303.0      2,120.6        190.3
1987..............................      1,003.9         75.7       -149.8       -225.5      2,346.1        195.3
1988..............................      1,064.1        100.0       -155.2       -255.2      2,601.3        214.1
1989..............................      1,143.2        114.2       -152.5       -266.7      2,868.0        240.9
1990..............................      1,252.7        117.2       -221.4       -338.6      3,206.6        264.7
1991..............................      1,323.8        122.7       -269.2       -391.9      3,598.5        285.5
1992..............................      1,380.9        113.2       -290.4       -403.6      4,002.1        292.3
1993..............................      1,408.2         94.2       -255.1       -349.3      4,351.4        292.5
1994..............................      1,460.6         89.1       -203.2       -292.3      4,643.7        296.3
1995..............................      1,530.0        121.9       -161.4       -283.3      4,927.0        336.0
1996 estimate.....................      1,583.0        121.8       -189.3       -311.1      5,238.0        348.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: CBO's January, April, and August 1995 Reports.                                                          


[[Page S 15491]]



                                                    Year 2002 (billion)
1996 Budget: Kasich Conf. Report, p. 3 (deficit)..................-$108
1996 Budget Outlays (CBO est.)...................................$1,583
1995 Budget Outlays...............................................1,530
                                                             __________

    Increased spending..............................................+53
                                                               ==========
_______________________________________________________________________

CBO Baseline Assuming Budget Resolution:
    Outlays.......................................................1,874
    Revenues......................................................1,884
                                                               ==========
_______________________________________________________________________

This Assumes:
  (1) Discretionary Freeze Plus Discretionary Cuts (in 2002).......-121
  (2) Entitlement Cuts and Interest Savings (in 2002)..............-226
  (3) Using SS Trust Fund (in 2002)................................-115
                                                             __________

      Total reductions (in 2002)...................................-462

                           MORE BUDGET TABLES                           
                              [In billions]                             
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  National     Interest 
                     Year                           debt        costs   
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1996..........................................       $5,238         $348
2002..........................................        6,728          436
------------------------------------------------------------------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       1996       2002  
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Debt Includes:                                                          
  (1) Owed to the Trust Funds.....................   $1,361.8   $2,355.7
  (2) Owed to Government Accts....................       81.9      (\1\)
  (3) Owed to Additional Borrowing................    3,794.3    4,372.7
                                                   ---------------------
      [Note No ``unified'' debt, just total debt].    5,238.0    6,728.4
                                                   =====================
Surplus in Social Security (CBO through 1996).....                      
(1) 544.0                                                               
Surplus in Medicare (CBO through 1996)............                      
(1) 145.0                                                               
------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Included above.                                                     


                          ``SOLID'' BUDGET PLAN                         
        [In billion; 1995 Real Deficit (CBO) (1) $283.3 billion]        
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 CBO    
                   Year (2)                     CBO outlays    revenues 
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1996..........................................       $1,583       $1,355
1997..........................................        1,624        1,419
1998..........................................        1,663        1,478
1999..........................................        1,718        1,549
2000..........................................        1,779        1,622
2001..........................................        1,819        1,701
2002..........................................        1,874        1,884
                                               -------------------------
  Total.......................................       12,060       11,008
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: $636 Billion ``embezzlement'' of the Social Security Trust Fund.  


------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     Outlays    Revenues
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2002 CBO Baseline Budget..........................     $1,874     $1,884
                                                   =====================
This assumes:.....................................                      
  (1) Discretionary Freeze Plus Discretionary Cuts                      
   (In 2002)......................................  .........      -$121
  (2) Entitlement Cuts and Interest Savings (in                         
   2002)..........................................  .........       -226
                                                   ---------------------
      [1996 Cuts, $45 B] Spending Reductions (in                        
       2002)......................................  .........       -347
      Using SS Trust Fund.........................  .........       -115
                                                   ---------------------
      Total reductions (in 2002)..................  .........       -462
------------------------------------------------------------------------

  Mr. HOLLINGS. Mr. President, as they demonstrate, you can add up the 
CBO outlays--the spending of the years 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 
2001, 2002--and find that over that 7-year period, we will spend a 
total of $12.06 trillion. Over that same period, CBO estimates that 
revenues will total $11,008 trillion. So you can see that spending will 
actually increase over revenues during the 7-year period by $1.052 
trillion.
  Even that figure is low is it requires what the former Senator, John 
Heinz, called ``embezzlement''; namely, using the Social Security trust 
fund to mask the true size of the deficit.
  I just heard in the Budget Committee the distinguished chairman, 
Senator Domenici, call it a phony argument. But he voted for it and all 
the Members who were present in 1990 voted to stop using Social 
Security surpluses to mask the size of the deficit. Senator Heinz and I 
put it into the law, section 13301 of the Congressional Budget Act. 
There is nothing phony about it, but I hear the Senator from Washington 
coming in and quoting Charles Krauthammer as saying the argument was 
fraudulent. I know that Mr. Krauthammer was a psychiatrist before he 
started spilling ink in the editorial page. It reminds me of the old 
saw that a psychiatrist is the fellow who goes to the burlesque show to 
look at the audience.

  Let us not use economic figures from psychiatrists, let's use the 
$105 billion deficit cited by CBO.

                          ____________________