[Congressional Record Volume 141, Number 43 (Wednesday, March 8, 1995)]
[Senate]
[Pages S3643-S3644]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
FALLING DOLLAR: IMPORTANT IMPACT ON AMERICAN PEOPLE
Mr. DOMENICI. Mr. President, first of all, let me suggest that the
falling dollar seems like something out in the sky that does not have
an impact on the American people. Let me suggest it has a very, very
important impact on the American people.
I said to my staff this morning, ``Let's not talk about Wall Street
and the markets. Let's talk about a couple in their home, living in an
apartment house with two children and are thinking about buying a new
house.'' That is the kind of American who is going to get hurt, or the
American who is thinking about buying a new car or a new refrigerator
and is going to have to borrow money, because essentially as the dollar
lowers in value and America's appetite for borrowed money grows because
we do not have a balanced budget and we do not have any game plan to
get our deficit under control, what happens is that those foreigners
who invest in American debt will insist on higher interest rates.
Because the dollar is worth less money, they want higher interest
rates.
So what are we already seeing as a result of the falling price of the
dollar? We are seeing higher interest rates, higher long-term interest
rates. So I want to discuss for a few minutes with the U.S. Senate and
those interested in this about things we ought to be doing that we are
not doing to see if we cannot stop this and put America's dollar and
America's economy back, from the standpoint of the world, in the proper
light, in the light it should be and should have.
The currency markets might even be said to be in turmoil. Yesterday's
news on that is not a disconnected Wall Street event. It is a critical
comment on the U.S. economy and on the budget policy of this Nation, as
I see it. Leadership in this country requires more than just saying a
strong dollar is in our interest. Who would not say that today? And
waiting around to see what happens is not an appropriate response.
It is backing that up with responsible fiscal policy that does not
take a walk on the deficit. Half a year ago, I spoke to the Senate the
last time America's currency was falling precipitously to new lows
against foreign currencies. The yen per dollar exchange rate was
flirting then with a historic floor of 100.
At that time, I warned that the dollar slide was a global vote of no
confidence on the direction of U.S. policy, both foreign and domestic,
and, in particular, fiscal policy. Now we are seeing the dollar hitting
new record lows every day since the Senate's failure to pass the
balanced budget amendment to the Constitution.
On Monday, our currency declined to a record low of 93 yen per
dollar, down 4.5 percent. In a week, it fell a similar amount against
the German mark and entered a record low territory against that
currency as well.
Yesterday, the dollar slide accelerated. By afternoon, the dollar had
fallen sizably further, 2 percent, since the previous day to a record
of 90 yen to the dollar, setting a fourth consecutive record low in as
many days. Against the mark, the dollar fell to 137, a new record low
against that currency as well. As a result, long-term interest rates
were pushed higher and stock values declined, just what I said in my
opening remarks. Interest rates are pushed up.
This is not the work of the Federal Reserve Board, which has been
adjusting short-term rates. Clearly, this is not that. This is the
world currency market responding.
These are not random disconnected events. Here is how we got to this
place:
First, Federal deficits are going up, not down, I say to my good
friend from Illinois. Last July, the projected deficits were said to be
$173 billion for 1996 and much was made of that decline.
In February, without any changes in policy, the administration upped
its estimate to $196 billion and took a walk on controlling long-term
deficits--that is the President's budget--took a walk on having any
impact on long-term deficits, thus, avoiding involvement by our country
in a meaningful way in getting long-term interest rates under control.
Second, and I regret to state this but it is absolutely true, we must
borrow even more, I say to Senator Simon, even more from abroad, rather
than less. Higher Federal deficits and low national savings rates mean
America's borrowing from abroad will have to grow tremendously in order
to fund America's investment needs.
Over the last four quarters, America has increased its net borrowing
from abroad by 50 percent, from $100 billion in 1993 to $150 billion in
1994. Last month, the administration projected borrowing needs from
abroad to rise to $170 billion by 1996.
The administration's shaky leadership with reference to the peso also
contributed somewhat to the crisis and is part of a connected web of
American activities that have shaken the market. I believe that event
on the Mexican peso contributed to some lack of confidence in the
dollar and our abilities to get involved in an appropriate way.
Then last Thursday, the U.S. Senate sent a message to the world
capital markets that the U.S. Government did not have the resolve to
deal with these damaging trends. The balanced budget amendment failed
in the Senate by one vote after passing overwhelmingly in the House.
The dollar now stands 7 percent lower against the yen and 6 percent
lower against the mark relative to 1 week ago.
The current 7.6-percent interest rate on 30-year Treasury bonds is 20
basis points higher than a week ago, and the Federal Reserve Board has
done nothing to adjust interest rates, so it is something else causing
it because they have not changed short-term interest rates, which many
think has no impact on long-term rates anyway.
A weak dollar and higher interest rates is prima facie evidence that
foreign investors lack confidence in dollar investments. Foreign
central banks time and time again have had to pick up the slack through
currency interventions, as they attempted to do last Friday, apparently
without success.
What should we be doing? There are many factors that can affect the
dollar. They include strengthening economies in Germany and elsewhere,
Japan's earthquake, and the peso crisis, but there will always be
events like that occurring outside our immediate control.
The question is, what are we doing to guide America's future in this
sea of uncertainty? If we do not provide a firm currency, obviously our
economic goals are put in jeopardy. That does not mean relying on the
Federal Reserve Board to increase rates enough to entice foreign
lenders to hold American-denominated securities, because obviously
there are two sides to that coin. When you do that, you hurt America,
although you might help the
[[Page S3644]] dollar overseas. When it comes to changing interest
rates, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board should always place domestic
interests first. A U.S. recession helps no one.
The only way to strengthen America's rate of return is to strengthen
America's economy by reducing long-term deficits, improving our savings
and investment climate, and getting the Government out of the way of
workers and business. All of these are on the agenda for this year and
next year, right on the table. Allowing confidence in the stability of
U.S. currency to significantly erode is not just unfortunate, it
reflects misguided and, I believe, irresponsible Government policies.
This is a very simple graph, easy to understand. It talks about the
U.S. dollar and its decline to new lows. The green one is its decline
against the yen. The red one is its decline against the other major
currency, the mark. This is all in the period of time, I say to my
friend from Illinois, from April 1, 1994, to March 7; that is
yesterday. It is rather significant, not something that is esoteric and
outside of impacting our people. It is very, very important to average
Americans and to our continued success as a viable economy.
I yield the floor.
Mr. EXON addressed the Chair.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. The Senator from Nebraska.
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