[Congressional Record Volume 140, Number 130 (Friday, September 16, 1994)]
[Extensions of Remarks]
[Page E]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]


[Congressional Record: September 16, 1994]
From the Congressional Record Online via GPO Access [wais.access.gpo.gov]

 
                 AVOIDING A MISSILE RACE IN SOUTH ASIA

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                          HON. LEE H. HAMILTON

                               of indiana

                    in the house of representatives

                       Friday, September 16, 1994

  Mr. HAMILTON. Mr. Speaker, there are few regions in the world more 
volatile than the Indian Subcontinent. Within the subcontinent, there 
are few threats to peace more worrisome than the prospect of a 
ballistic missile race between India and Pakistan.
  The Indian Government will soon make an important decision. If New 
Delhi decides to produce and deploy the Prithvi short-range missile, 
this will mark a watershed in the South Asian strategic environment.
  Given its range limitations, the Prithvi would have no military 
utility against any country other than Pakistan. Accordingly, the 
leadership in Islamabad would almost certainly respond to a Prithvi 
deployment by deploying a comparable missile system--leaving both 
countries less, rather than more, secure. This is one road I hope the 
people of South Asia don't have to travel.
  A few days ago there appeared in the International Herald Tribune an 
insightful article on this potentially new component of the old South 
Asian arms race. I would like to draw it to the attention of my 
colleagues. The text follows:

         [From the International Herald Tribune, Sept. 7, 1994]

        The Subcontinent Doesn't Need Indian Ballistic Missiles

                 (By Sumit Ganguly and Mitchell Reiss)

       Washington.--India will soon decide whether to start mass-
     producing and deploying its short-range ballistic missile, 
     the Prithvi, which can carry nuclear weapons. New Delhi 
     should resist such a move. It would damage Indian security, 
     trigger a ballistic-missile arms race with Pakistan, risk 
     destabilizing an already volatile region, and increase the 
     chances of a fourth war between the two major military powers 
     in South Asia.
       With a 500-kilogram warhead, the Prithvi missile has a 
     range of 250 kilometers, but its inaccuracy leads many 
     analysts to suspect that it is really designed to carry 
     nuclear weapons.
       R. James Woolsey, director of the U.S. Central Intelligence 
     Agency, has stated that India could build nuclear bombs 
     within a short time if it decided to do so, and that South 
     Asia is the ``most probable prospect'' for a nuclear war. 
     Tensions have been aggravated by a recent assertion of Nawaz 
     Sharif, the former prime minister of Pakistan, that his 
     country has a nuclear weapon.
       New Delhi is understandably proud of the scientific and 
     technological prowess that the Prithvi represents. And it has 
     legitimate security concerns on both its western and northern 
     flanks. Relations with Pakistan remain tense, as the two 
     sides continue to joust over Kashmir and quarrel in a host of 
     lesser disputes. Although India signed a series of 
     confidence-building measures with China in September 1993, 
     New Delhi is wary about Beijing's military buildup, its 
     continued testing of nuclear weapons and its aspirations for 
     Asian leadership.
       However, deploying the Prithvi would be contrary to India's 
     strategic interests. The missile cannot deter Beijing because 
     it cannot reach China's main population centers. For that 
     reason, New Delhi is developing a longer-range missile, the 
     Agni, which should be ready in a few years. The Prithvi also 
     would add little to India's military superiority over 
     Pakistan, which it has defeated in three wars. Nor would it 
     stop Pakistan from continuing its support of Kashmiri 
     militants.
       Further, Pakistan would be compelled to match India's 
     missile deployments by deploying the M-11 ballistic missiles 
     it has received from China. Currently, these missiles are in 
     storage crates, unassembled. Pakistani officials have 
     privately told the Clinton administration that Pakistan would 
     immediately assemble and deploy the M-11 should India start 
     up the Prithvi production line.
       Neither India nor Pakistan could afford the costs of a 
     ballistic-missile arms race. Each would be obliged to devote 
     ever greater resources to missile programs and, as a hedge, 
     to nuclear weapons as well. Major lenders and aid donors, 
     such as Japan and Germany, would take a jaundiced view of 
     scarce financial and scientific resources being used in this 
     way.
       Deployment of the Prithvi would aggravate New Delhi's 
     relations with Washington, which launched a major initiative 
     earlier this year to freeze nuclear and ballistic missile 
     programs in the region. The Clinton administration is 
     discussing the transfer of technology to improve the safety 
     and security of the nuclear reactors used by India to 
     generate electricity. It is inconceivable that the U.S. 
     Congress would allow this in the face of ballistic missile 
     deployments.
       More worrisome from India's perspective is that the U.S. 
     Congress might react to the Prithvi deployment by rethinking 
     the wisdom of the Pressler amendment, which has prevented 
     Pakistan from receiving U.S. military and economic assistance 
     since 1990 because of Islamabad's nuclear weapons program. 
     The amendment was not intended to give India a free hand to 
     develop its own ballistic-missile and nuclear programs. If 
     the amendment is lifted, India will have achieved for 
     Pakistan what Pakistan has been unable to achieve for itself.
       Indian officials and analysts have so far dismissed these 
     points. They have contended that ballistic missiles are not 
     very different from the advanced jet aircraft that are 
     already present in the region and that they will contribute 
     to deterrence. Such arguments overlook the special 
     characteristics of ballistic missiles and the strategic 
     environment in which they would be deployed.
       Because they fly very fast and high, they are far less 
     likely than aircraft to be shot down. They cannot be recalled 
     after launching. Hundreds of ballistic missiles in the 
     subcontinent would strain fragile command and control links, 
     increasing the chance of accidental launching.
       Psychologically, ballistic missile deployments would make 
     each side feel far more vulnerable and less secure than 
     before. At the very least, they would introduce one more 
     element of uncertainty into an already strained relationship.
       To prevent a ruinous preemptive military strike, each side 
     would be sorely tempted to adopt a launch-on-warning 
     strategy. Given the short distances involved--Lahore, 
     Islamabad, Bombay and New Delhi could all be reached within 
     ten minutes of a launching--missile forces would require 
     instantaneous decisions made under enormous pressure on the 
     basis of inadequate information. This is a recipe for 
     disaster.
       A ballistic-missile arms race in South Asia would not 
     necessarily lead to war, but it would undoubtedly increase 
     the level of mistrust and anxiety in an already tense region 
     and exponentially enlarge the degree of devastation should a 
     new war occur between India and Pakistan.
       Deploying Prithvi would not enhance India's security vis-a-
     vis China or provide a meaningful advantage over Pakistan. It 
     would offend international lenders and greatly irritate 
     relations with the United States. Self-interest alone should 
     persuade Indian decision-makers not to deploy the missile.

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