[Senate Hearing 118-583]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]



                                                        S. Hrg. 118-583

                    BUILDING ON THE SUCCESS OF TCJA:
                       THE 2025 TAX POLICY DEBATE

=======================================================================





                                HEARING

                               before the

                        JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE

                                 of the

                     CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES

                    ONE HUNDRED EIGHTEENTH CONGRESS

                             SECOND SESSION 
                               __________

                           NOVEMBER 19, 2024 
                               __________

          Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee 
          
          
          
          
          
          
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                        JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE

    [Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Congress]

SENATE                               HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Martin Heinrich, New Mexico,         David Schweikert, Arizona, Vice 
  Chairman                             Chairman
Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota             Jodey C. Arrington, Texas
Margaret Wood Hassan, New Hampshire  Ron Estes, Kansas
Mark Kelly, Arizona                  A. Drew Ferguson IV, Georgia
Peter Welch, Vermont                 Lloyd K. Smucker, Pennsylvania
John Fetterman, Pennsylvania         Nicole Malliotakis, New York
Mike Lee, Utah                       Donald S. Beyer Jr., Virginia
Tom Cotton, Arkansas                 David Trone, Maryland
Eric Schmitt, Missouri               Gwen Moore, Wisconsin
J.D. Vance, Ohio                     Katie Porter, California

                  Jessica Martinez, Executive Director
                 Ron Donado, Republican Staff Director 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                            C O N T E N T S

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                     Opening Statements of Members

                                                                   Page
Vice Chairman David Schweikert, a Representative from Arizona....     1
Representative Donald S. Beyer Jr., a Representative from 
  Virginia.......................................................     9

                               Witnesses

The Honorable Kevin Brady, Former Chairman, House Committee on 
  Ways and Means; Former Chairman, Joint Economic Committee, 
  Washington, DC.................................................     2
Dr. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, President, American Action Forum; Former 
  Director, Congressional Budget Office, Washington, DC..........     3
Ms. Samantha Jacoby, Deputy Director of Federal Tax Policy, 
  Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Washington, DC.........     5
Mr. John Arensmeyer, Founder and CEO, Small Business Majority, 
  Washington, DC.................................................     7

                       Submissions for the Record

Prepared statement of Donald S. Beyer Jr., a Representative from 
  Virginia.......................................................    30
Prepared statement of The Honorable Kevin Brady, Former Chairman, 
  House Committee on Ways and Means; Former Chairman, Joint 
  Economic Committee.............................................    34
Prepared statement of Dr. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, President, 
  American Action Forum; Former Director, Congressional Budget 
  Office.........................................................    40
Prepared statement of Ms. Samantha Jacoby, Deputy Director of 
  Federal Tax Policy, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.....    47
Prepared statement of Mr. John Arensmeyer, Founder and CEO, Small 
  Business Majority..............................................    62
Questions for the Record submitted by Senator Amy Klobuchar to 
  Ms. Jacoby, and response.......................................    68
Questions for the Record submitted by Senator Amy Klobuchar to 
  Mr. Arensmeyer, and response...................................    71
Questions for the Record submitted by Senator Welch to Ms. 
  Jacoby, and response...........................................    75
Submission by Vice Chairman David Schweikert: https://
  bfi.uchicago.edu/working-paper/2021-115/ & https://
  oxfordtax.sbs.ox.ac.uk/sitefiles/wp1105 .pdf...................    81
Submission by Rep. Lloyd Smucker: https://
  strgnfibcom.blob.core.windows.net/nfibcom/EY-NFIB-
  Macroeconomic-analysis-of-permanently-extending-the-section-
  199A-on-small-businesses.pdf...................................    81
Article submitted by Representative Donald S. Beyer Jr. ``Just 
  pure uncertainty''. Small businesses are hopeful and fearful 
  ahead of Trump's second term...................................    82

 
      BUILDING ON THE SUCCESS OF TCJA: THE 2025 TAX POLICY DEBATE

                              ----------                              

                       TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2024

                            United States Congress,
                                  Joint Economic Committee,
                                                    Washington, DC.
    The committee met, pursuant to call, at 2:29 p.m. in Room 
210, Cannon House Office Building, Hon. David Schweikert [vice 
chairman of the committee] presiding.
    Present: Vice Chairman Schweikert, Representatives 
Arrington, Estes, Smucker, Malliotakis, Beyer, Moore, and 
Porter. Senators Hassan and Schmitt.
    Staff Present: Ron Donado, Colleen J. Healy, Kobe 
Barthelemy, Shauna Burton, Matthew Cernicky, Jaxson Dealy, Sebi 
Devlin-Foltz, Jeremy Johnson, Jessica Martinez, Michael 
Pearson, Alexander Schunk, Douglas Simons, and Garrett 
Wilbanks.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. This hearing will come to order.
    I would like to welcome everyone to today's Joint Economic 
Committee hearing titled, ``Building on the Success of TCJA: 
The 2025 Tax Policy Debate.''
    Today's hearing will begin with five-minute opening 
statements from myself, Senator Heinrich--or Congressman Beyer, 
whoever shows up, and then we will proceed to questions 
alternating between parties as members arrive. We will have a 
number of members who are going to be coming and going, because 
we have sort of sandwiched this into a day of chaos.
    I would now like to introduce our two distinguished 
Republican witnesses. And going a little off script, a person 
who probably, at least in my time in Congress, had more effect 
on my life because of his willingness to sometimes listen to 
the intellectual chaos I was trying to bring to him, and the 
previous chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, but also 
someone who also sat on the Joint Economic Committee--for how 
many years? Quite a while.
    And then, of course, Dr. Holtz-Eakin, who has been an 
incredible asset--I am way off script--to someone like myself 
when I had ideas, and his willingness to explain to me why it 
doesn't work has always been very, very helpful to me 
intellectually, but also the willingness to take us down rabbit 
holes of trying to be brutally intellectually honest of why 
some things work and don't work, and their effects into 
society.
    I was going to let Congressman Beyer--why don't we--we are 
going to play a little bit of a game here, just so I am being 
respectful. We are going to start with opening statement, our 
opening statement. And then, if Mr. Beyer shows up, we will 
have him introduce the Democrat witnesses. If not, you are 
stuck with me.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Chairman Brady, five minutes.

   STATEMENT OF THE HON. KEVIN BRADY, FORMER CHAIRMAN, HOUSE 
 COMMITTEE ON WAYS AND MEANS, FORMER CHAIRMAN, JOINT ECONOMIC 
                  COMMITTEE, WASHINGTON, D.C.

    Chairman Brady. Great, thank you, Vice Chairman Schweikert 
and distinguished members of the Joint Economic Committee. It 
is nice to be back, and it is really an honor to participate in 
this hearing. And I know from sitting on your side how 
important role JEC plays. This is the counterweight to the 
President's Council of Economic Advisers, and the role you play 
on economic policy is really key.
    So just so you know, in my post-Congress life, I serve as 
the strategic advisor to the Alliance for Competitive Taxation 
Act which was formed to--in 2013 to form--to promote U.S. jobs, 
investment, sustain rising incomes for American families. They 
are seeking a globally competitive tax system, one where 
American companies can compete and win anywhere in the world, 
including here at home, one that makes the U.S. the premier 
destination for new investment and innovation in manufacturing, 
and it promotes economic growth. These are the tax directors 
from 49 of America's leading businesses that employ more than 3 
million workers.
    I also serve as a senior consultant with the global law 
firm Akin, and as a volunteer I am pleased to serve on the 
board of the American Action Forum, and as well as the Tax 
Foundation. I am not a registered lobbyist. My views are my own 
today.
    So why do we do tax reform? As you may remember, tax reform 
became urgent because America's code was horribly outdated, the 
highest corporate rate nearly in the world, and an 
international system so competitive and as a relic of the 
Kennedy Administration. So as a result, for a decade before tax 
reform, America's economic growth was unusually slow, averaging 
a mere 1.5 percent a year. Paychecks were essentially flat for 
a decade, and on average about every other month a new U.S. 
company was moving its headquarters overseas, often taking its 
manufacturing, research, investment, and intellectual property 
with it, which left thousands of Americans in their communities 
behind, all because we had an obsolete tax code.
    Some economists tried to convince America that that was the 
best we could do, that was the new normal. We knew better. And 
through policy work over 8 years, over 40 congressional 
hearings, bipartisan working groups, comprehensive drafts, the 
House Ways and Means Committee pursued the reform of America's 
outdated tax code in preparation for a president willing to 
lead on this challenging issue.
    In 2017, if you may remember--and several of you were 
here--we sought to create a tax code built for growth, growth 
of jobs, paychecks, and the U.S. economy. We wanted to leapfrog 
America to the most competitive economy on the planet, 
positioning us as that premier destination for innovation and 
investment, and ensure competitiveness both for workers and for 
our businesses.
    The Tax Cut and Jobs Act, led by President--and signed by 
President Trump achieved its goals. The Trump tax cuts were a 
boon for American workers. It spurred business investment and 
innovation, technology, software equipment, and facilities, 
restored America's corporate international competitiveness. And 
by dropping the rate from 20--to 21 percent from 35, Congress 
set off an economic boom. Coupled with a modern international 
code, the TCJA's rate cuts drew more investment in research and 
intellectual property back to the United States. It stimulated 
U.S. investment by an average of 20 percent. R&D increased. 
Many companies repatriated, brought back their intellectual 
property to America. More importantly, they developed and kept 
it here in the first place.
    So if you look at within America's companies that compete 
here and abroad, if you look at jobs, capital expenditures, 
total sales, and R&D spending, all grew faster in the U.S. than 
in their overseas markets. In other words, they were investing 
more in all of that because the tax code allowed it and 
encouraged it. And that increased activity here at home was 
worth more than $11 billion and 1 million jobs.
    To make a long story short, the reforms that we made are 
not permanent. They will take concerted effort by Congress to 
both retain those pro-growth incentives, but find ways to 
improve them as well. We knew the moment we signed Tax Cuts and 
Jobs Act there was plenty of room for improvement. But I think 
the key thing is locking in the competitiveness and growth, and 
keeping the rates low in such a way that you drive workers' 
paychecks up.
    And I will tell you, in the three years after TCJA became 
law, the nine percent average--nine percent, a real wage growth 
for Americans--is the largest wage growth since we began 
recording data. At the end of the day, my advice is to not 
simply extend it or make permanent, but look for ways to build 
on that growth and prosperity.
    Thank you, Mr. Vice Chairman.
    [The statement of Mr. Brady appears in the submissions for 
the Record]
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Thank you. Dr. Holtz-Eakin.

   STATEMENT OF DR. DOUGLAS HOLTZ-EAKIN, PRESIDENT, AMERICAN 
   ACTION FORUM, FORMER DIRECTOR, CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. Thank you, Mr. Vice Chairman.
    Congressman Beyer, members of the committee, it is a 
pleasure to be here today, and I appreciate the opportunity to 
weigh in on the important tax policy issues you face in 2025.
    To my eye, America has two preeminent economic problems. It 
has a growth problem, and that growth problem I summarize in my 
testimony by pointing out that in the 20th century GDP per 
capita, the accrued measure of the standard of living, income 
per person, grew at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent. And 
at that pace the standard of living doubles every 30 years, 
roughly one working career. In the 21st century that growth 
rate has slowed to 1.4 percent. And at that pace the standard 
of living doubles every 51 years. And all of us have seen 
evidence in polling and other sources of the discontent in 
America about access to the same opportunities that someone's 
parents had. You just don't have the same chances. I think that 
growth problem is at the root of that discontent, and something 
that should be a focus of policy for Congress and the 
Administration.
    The Federal Government also has a debt problem. Right now 
debt is roughly 100 percent of GDP, $36 trillion, and it is on 
a trajectory that will send it ever northward, reaching 
something like 122 percent of GDP in 2034 and continuing north. 
That is literally unsustainable, and something that Congress 
must grapple with in its deliberations. So this debate takes 
place in that context.
    The second point that I would like to make is that TCJA has 
a proven track record of addressing the growth problem. I will 
echo the things that the chairman said in his opening remarks, 
but we know that we got an enormous acceleration in investment 
in the United States, relocation of intellectual property into 
the United States, choices at headquarters no longer being 
outside the United States but in the United States. We have not 
lost a single headquarters since the passage of the 2017 Act. 
It spurred an enormous increase in economic growth in the U.S.
    And the worst thing we could do would be to let it sunset 
and do a U-turn on a very effective tax reform, and the right 
thing to do is to build on that tax reform. There are things 
that one can do better and improve on the quality of the growth 
incentives. Some simple ones would be to make all equipment 
investment fully expensed, make all R&D fully expensed.
    What you would like to have is a situation where, if you 
incur a cost to improve the productivity of your operation, you 
get to fully expense it and then however you improve your 
productivity is on a level playing field. If you buy some 
equipment, it is the same as training your workers, it is the 
same as investing in innovation. You want the tax code out of 
those kinds of decisions. Those are things that the Congress 
can do next year that would be big improvements.
    But I think the one to really focus on is to focus on pass-
through taxation. It is now the case that more than one-half of 
all business income is taxed on individual income tax returns 
as pass-through income. For that reason, all of the things 
typically thought of as individual rate considerations are 
business tax issues. And getting a combined corporate and pass-
through regime that efficiency efficiently allocates capital 
across sectors, distorts economic decisions as little as 
possible--let people run their businesses for business 
purposes, that should be a big objective.
    And you know, what really stands out to me in the 17 Act is 
that an Act that produced an enormous amount of simplification 
also contained the greatest complication, which is the section 
199A pass-through regime. I am not here to lobby for a 
particular outcome. I put one in my written testimony that is 
so simple it is ridiculous. I am just pointing out that there 
are lots of ways to do it, and that we can do better on that 
front, and I would encourage some attention on that.
    And the final point I want to make is just where does debt 
enter in all of this? It is not it is not 2017 anymore. We have 
a deficit of 6.3 percent of GDP for an economy that is at full 
employment, not at war. There is no reason for deficits to be 
this large. They are an active threat to the capacity of this 
economy to grow and deliver on the promise of a higher standard 
of living.
    So--and when you think about the TCJA decisions, think 
growth. But as a starting point, don't make the problem worse. 
So one way to think about it is you could extend TCJA, and that 
would keep current policies in place. And anything you did in 
addition to that, above or below, you should offset. And that 
would be a current policy baseline with a deficit neutral 
reform around it. That is--that, to me, would be the minimum 
that you should aim for.
    The gold standard would be to do a deficit-neutral reform 
from the current law baseline, which would do two things. It 
would allow you to make some progress on the fiscal problem, 
which is real and won't be solved with taxes alone, you are 
going to have to deal with the spending part, but it would also 
allow you to make the tax policy permanent, and thus much more 
effective.
    So I appreciate the chance to be here today to discuss 
these issues, and look forward to your questions.
    [The statement of Dr. Holtz-Eakin appears in the 
Submissions for the Record]
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Mr. Beyer.
    Representative Beyer. Mr. Chairman, thank you very much. I 
would love to introduce Ms. Jacoby, who is the deputy director 
of Federal tax policy at the Center for Budget and Policy 
Priorities and a UPenn Law School graduate and MPP at American 
University.
    And we are delighted to have you with us. So the floor is 
yours.

 STATEMENT OF MS. SAMANTHA JACOBY, DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF FEDERAL 
      TAX POLICY, CENTER ON BUDGET AND POLICY PRIORITIES

    Ms. Jacoby. Thank you. Representative Beyer, Vice Chairman 
Schweikert, and distinguished members of the committee, thanks 
for the opportunity to testify today. I am Samantha Jacoby, 
deputy director of Federal tax policy at the Center on Budget 
and Policy Priorities. Today I will focus on three points.
    First, tax cuts in the last 25 years gave large benefits to 
households in the top 1 percent and corporations. These tax 
cuts have largely failed to trickle down to workers and 
families.
    Second, these large tax cuts cost significant Federal 
revenue and added trillions to the national debt, increasing 
economic risks. Extending the Trump tax cuts that expire next 
year would further expand benefits for the wealthy, while 
adding considerably to the deficit. More revenue is needed to 
make our commitments to seniors, to address future challenges, 
and to improve our fiscal outlook.
    And third, instead of doubling down on failed trickle-down 
tax cuts, policymakers should prioritize investments like the 
Child Tax Credit that would yield short and long-term benefits 
to people, communities, and the economy as a whole.
    The 2017 Trump tax cut delivered a $60,000 annual tax cut 
to households in the top 1 percent and a $250,000 annual tax 
cut to the top one-tenth of 1 percent. This tilt to the top is 
largely because of a few costly provisions. The dramatic cut in 
the corporate tax rate down to 21 percent mostly benefits 
wealthy shareholders. Despite claims from the Trump 
Administration that it would boost household incomes by $4,000, 
JCT and Federal Reserve economists found that workers in the 
bottom 90th percentile saw no change in earnings from the 
corporate rate cut. And who did benefit? Executives and highly-
paid firm managers.
    Similarly, the special deduction for pass-through 
businesses, including many real estate funds, financial firms, 
and oil and gas companies, for example, gives millionaires more 
than half the benefit at a cost of $70 billion a year. The 
pass-through deduction has not boosted wages, investment, or 
broader economic activity, but it has created opportunities for 
high-income business owners and their tax advisers to game the 
deduction through both tax avoidance and illegal tax evasion.
    Continuing on this path by extending the expiring Trump tax 
cuts would be irresponsible. It would deliver a $48,000 annual 
tax cut to households in the top 1 percent, but only about $500 
for the average household making less than $100,000. And 
imposing broad-based tariffs as an offset would double down on 
the 2017 law's regressivity, increased taxes--increasing taxes 
on low and moderate-income families, raising the cost of living 
for families, and posing significant short and long-term 
economic risks.
    Together, the Bush and Trump tax cuts have eroded our 
revenue base, undermined our ability to finance high-value 
investments, and driven up deficits and debt, increasing future 
economic risks. Without these tax cuts, the deficit would be 
half its current size and the debt ratio would be much lower. 
Continued growth in the debt ratio poses potential future risks 
to the economy and fiscal policy. Interest costs are higher now 
than in the 1990s, and are expected to keep growing.
    Making the Trump tax cuts permanent would cost $4 trillion 
over 10 years, and adding further business tax breaks like 
expensing for equipment and cutting taxes on multinationals' 
foreign income would add another trillion dollars to the cost. 
These tax cuts don't pay for themselves. CBO projects that 
extending the Trump tax cuts would raise debt by more than 30 
percent of GDP over the next 30 years.
    The country needs more revenue, not less, and those new 
revenues should focus on those who have gained the most over 
the last four decades. Since the 1980s incomes among the top 1 
percent of households grew 3 times as fast as that of middle-
income families. Instead of doubling down on failed trickle-
down tax cuts, there are opportunities to make investments that 
make the economy work for everyone.
    Child poverty in the U.S. is higher than in other wealthy 
countries due to our weaker support for families with kids. 
Investing in kids through policies like the Child Tax Credit 
has long-term payoffs for the entire country. Infants and 
families with lower incomes who receive more support from 
child-related tax benefits go on to have higher test scores, 
higher high school graduation rates, and higher earnings into 
young adulthood. All of that supports a stronger economy.
    And policies to support workers can also yield significant 
benefits to communities and the economy as a whole. Six million 
workers in low-wage jobs are taxed into poverty every year or 
deeper into poverty. Expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit for 
those workers can help them afford rent and the rising cost of 
other basics, which are essential for maintaining a steady job 
and participating in the economy.
    Thank you again for having me to testify today, and I 
welcome any questions you have.
    [The statement of Ms. Jacoby appears in the Submissions for 
the Record]
    Representative Beyer. Thank you, Ms. Jacoby, very much.
    Before introducing Mr. Arensmeyer, I would like to note and 
offer for the record, if there is no objection, an article from 
Alicia Wallace of CNN submitted by Mr. Arensmeyer.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. No, so ordered.
    [The information appears in the Submissions for Record]
    Representative Beyer. Thank you very much. And with that, 
John Arensmeyer is the founder of Small Business Majority. I 
met him a couple of decades ago. We have been working for a 
long time, pulling together the great needs of small business 
and how government can most effectively react, respond, and 
lead.
    Mr. Arensmeyer, the floor is yours.

      STATEMENT OF MR. JOHN ARENSMEYER, FOUNDER AND CEO 
                   SMALL BUSINESS MAJORITY 

    Mr. Arensmeyer. Thank you. Thank you, Representative Beyer, 
and also Vice Chairman Schweikert, and members of the 
committee. Thank you for inviting me to speak about the 
importance of ensuring that we have a tax code that supports a 
robust, innovative, and inclusive economy anchored by our 
nation's 34 million small businesses.
    We are a national small business organization that empowers 
America's entrepreneurs to build a thriving and equitable 
economy. Prior to launching Small Business Majority nearly 20 
years ago, I was the founder and CEO of an award winning 
interactive communications company that I ran for 12 years. At 
Small Business Majority we engage our network of more than 
85,000 small businesses and 1,500 business and community 
organizations to advocate for public policy solutions and 
deliver resources to entrepreneurs that promote equitable small 
business growth.
    For two decades we have examined the reality of how 
taxation affects America's small businesses, and have advocated 
for tax policies that maximize entrepreneurial growth and level 
the playing field with large corporations. Our work is 
bolstered by scientific research into small business needs 
alongside the voices of America's entrepreneurs.
    To be clear, the current tax code is not working for Main 
Street. Most recent--our most recent national opinion poll of 
small businesses found that more than three quarters believe 
that the current tax system favors large corporations over 
small businesses, that wealthy individuals and large 
corporations don't pay their fair share of taxes, and that 
Congress should create a bottom-up, simplified tax system that 
better delivers for America's entrepreneurs.
    Specifically, the expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 
presents a golden opportunity for Congress to reform Section 
199A pass-through tax deduction as a way that benefits Main 
Street. Based on Tax Policy Center data, almost 70 percent of 
all 199A benefits flow to the wealthiest 4.5 percent of pass-
through business owners. While the richest entities claimed an 
average deduction of over $1 million in 2021, those with 
incomes below $100,000 took home an average deduction of less 
than 2,000. And as Ms. Jacoby has pointed out, half of the 
benefits of 199A go to business owners earning more than $1 
million.
    Moreover, the 199A deduction has also widened racial 
disparities, with Black and Hispanic-owned businesses receiving 
just seven percent of the benefit. One possible solution that 
we are advocating is to allow entrepreneurs to deduct the first 
$25,000 of business income, something that would benefit the 
vast majority of Main Street enterprises, an approach that 2.5 
times more small business owners support than oppose in our 
recent poll.
    As many of you on both sides of the aisle have said, any 
tax package must address the growing deficit while ensuring 
that there is adequate funding for targeted government programs 
to support our nation's entrepreneurs. Increased revenues can 
be achieved by the following four ways.
    Increasing the corporate tax rate--only 5 percent of small 
businesses, or C corporations are paying the 21 percent 
corporate tax rate. Raising the rate to 28 percent, something 
supported by a majority of business owners in our most recent 
poll, would generate $700 billion in revenue over the next 10 
years, and better level the playing field between large and 
small enterprises.
    Second, bring the capital gains rate to--more in alignment 
with ordinary income tax rates, something that is supported two 
to one by our small business owners in our recent poll.
    Three, maintain the current level of IRS funding to 
maximize revenue and serve small businesses, something that our 
polling has shown is supported by more than 80 percent of small 
businesses, and would close the annual tax gap of $700 billion.
    And fourth, closing tax loopholes favoring offshore income, 
something supported in our polling by three quarters of small 
business owners.
    A few other points that are highlighted in detail in my 
written testimony.
    Small businesses continue to grapple with health care costs 
that are far greater than anywhere else in the developed world. 
More than half of the participants in the ACA marketplaces are 
small business owners, employees, and self-employed Americans. 
The ACA premium tax credits and the accompanying expanded 
market eligibility have been a game-changer for entrepreneurs 
over the past four years. They must be continued after 2025 to 
avoid an estimated 4 million Americans losing coverage.
    Finally, small business owners are already hunkering down 
to weather the painful impact of a potential trade war, 
including stocking up on inventory and thinking about moving 
operations offshore to manufacture for the export market. At 
the most recent convening of our National Small Business 
Council, increased tariffs were the single biggest concern. The 
business owners' comments are in my written testimony.
    In summary, 2025 offers a chance to address the 
shortcomings of the current tax code and lay the foundation for 
tax policies that better serve small businesses. Thank you.
    [The statement of Mr. Arensmeyer appears in the Submissions 
for the Record]
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Thank you. One of the ways we are 
going to do this is, Mr. Beyer, I am going to have you do an 
opening statement. Then I am going to turn to Ms. Malliotakis 
to ask a couple of questions, because she needs to leave in a 
moment. So I am going to try to balance this so everyone can--
--
    Representative Beyer. Would you rather that she went first?
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Well, but your opening statements 
are always very elegant.
    Representative Beyer. Oh, yes, yes.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Just make it short. [Laughter.]
    Representative Beyer. Five minutes, right. Well, Chairman 
Schweikert, thank you very much, and thank all of you for being 
here today.
    Chairman Brady, welcome back. I very much enjoyed my couple 
of years on Ways and Means with your leadership.
    And Doug Holtz-Eakin, you are a regular contributor here. 
It is good to have you back, and I am thrilled to have my 
friends, Ms. Jacoby and Mr. Arensmeyer.
    As we discuss what direction the tax debate should take 
next year, we really need to look through the tax record and--
because we know we all want growth, we all want this economy to 
grow as quickly as it can. And we all know that tax policy is a 
big part of that. And the question is--and the debt is a big 
part of it too, as Ms. Jacoby mentioned. And so the question 
is, how do we do this?
    Chairman Brady, I very much respect your great pride in the 
TCJA. I think, love it or hate it, it was the accomplishment of 
Trump I, and you were the one that led all that. So I hope I 
don't hurt your feelings when I try to put a perspective on the 
numbers you ran out there, because, you know, the economy did 
grow at almost 3 percent in 2018, 2.97 percent. But it grew at 
2.95 percent in 2015 under Obama. It grew at 2.47 percent in 
2019, the second year, the same as in 2017, the year that Trump 
inherited from Obama, and the same as in 2014 under Obama. And 
then it dropped. You don't count 2020 and 2021 with the huge 
drop and the huge surge, but 2022 back to 1.9; 2023, 2.54.
    Job growth, again, if you look at all the last 10 years, 
basically the same every year, even after TCJA, except that it 
dropped to three quarters of 1 percent--now two thirds of 1 
percent--in 2019, the second full year of TCJA. So in fact, the 
International Monetary Fund and the Congressional Research 
Service both found that the law, according to them, had very 
little to do with the growth. And this growth didn't even come 
close to paying for the cost of the tax cuts. The Congressional 
Research Service estimated that we had to see a growth rate of 
over 9 percent in 2018 to be on track for that goal.
    So what did happen? Well, as Ms. Jacoby said very well, 
most of it went to the richest--80 percent to the richest 10 
percent. Billions of dollars in tax giveaways to the big 
businesses. We just came off an election where at least part of 
the results were that so many Americans felt left behind, that 
their incomes have not kept up. My friend, Ian Shepherdson from 
Pantheon, pointed out that a blue collar worker in 2023 is not 
making what he made in 1972 in constant dollars.
    So while we want it to happen--and yet we have more than 
1,000 billionaires and, you know, lots and lots of people with 
very high incomes. We have grown our upper middle class 
dramatically, but we have left an awful lot of people behind. I 
know the intent of TCJA was to pull them along, but it hasn't 
worked.
    What has worked? Well, the Child Tax Credit, which we are 
very proud of. It was in the American Rescue Plan. It wasn't 
the only thing that brought child poverty down because the 
economic impact payments do, and unemployment benefits. But 
let's face it, it was 5 percent or 5.x percent, the lowest in 
American history. And when we got rid of it, it went back up to 
12.7--I think it was 13.7 percent last year--we know how to 
reduce child poverty. We have decided child poverty is a 
political choice, a public policy choice, and we have made the 
wrong choice.
    One of the big challenges in this last election was housing 
costs. People across the country, there is too few houses we 
can't afford to get in, and rents are sky high. You know, the 
one public policy thing we have brought forward on that is the 
Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, which we haven't been able to 
pass yet, despite lots of bipartisan support.
    By the way, a shout out to Wyden Smith--our current 
Republican chair of Ways and Means and Ron Wyden--brought back 
a limited Child Tax Credit, passed out of our committee 40 to 
3, and is stuck in the Senate right now. But, you know, we are 
coming together around that.
    And then there is the national debt. You know, we are all 
guilty of it being 100 percent right now, but my great fear as 
we move into this next two years is that we are going to make 
it worse. Or even worse, we are going to pretend that tariffs 
are going to pay for the national debt when we know that 
nobody--no economist actually believes that.
    There are a lot more effective ways we could do this if we 
focus on lifting children out of poverty, people getting a 
quality education, working on a broken health care system, 
making all those solutions a reality.
    And by the way, I don't want to say blanket everything in 
TCJA is wrong. I have seen great studies that show the 
instantaneous deduction depreciation actually did a lot to spur 
growth. If you are--you know, I was in business for 46 years, 
and if you can buy the new car wash and write it off the first 
year you are more likely to buy that new car wash. But I think 
we need to be really careful as we look at readdressing all the 
things that expire, that we focus on ways to--running out of 
time--to make sure that it is lifting up the people that need 
it the most, rather than the people that need it the least.
    [The statement of Representative Beyer appears in the 
Submissions for the Record]
    Representative Beyer. And with that I yield back, Mr. 
Chairman.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Representative Malliotakis.
    Representative Malliotakis. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
    I want to thank you all for coming today. I think for--I 
wasn't on the committee in 2017. I am very excited about the 
opportunity to extend and make better what I thought was a good 
product. I think, if you look at the results, it did create 
millions of jobs, it did lift people out of poverty. It did 
double the Child Tax Credit in the standard deduction, allowing 
for families to keep more of their money in their pockets. It 
did lift wages and it did bring unemployment down to record 
levels, particularly for women and minorities. And I think that 
is all wonderful, and we should be applauding the success of 
this.
    And I think that there is also--I guess, obviously, what we 
are looking for here is how do we expand on this? How do we 
build upon the successes of the TCJA?
    I think one of the things that I have observed in speaking 
with people is--obviously, you want people to invest, you want 
people to expand their businesses, grow their businesses, 
create jobs, but they need some type of certainty for that, 
right? And I think that some of the concerns are that the 
provisions have expired and, like, the difficulty we are having 
now renewing some of those provisions like R&D and the bonus 
depreciation that has begun to sunset.
    So Mr. Brady, or Chairman Brady, I would love to ask your 
opinion on what do you think about maybe longer-term 
provisions, some type of permanence that could give businesses 
more certainty so they feel comfortable to expand and invest?
    Chairman Brady. So Congresswoman, thank you. So the short 
answer is the greatest growth you get, the greatest certainty 
to invest in the United States, whether you are bringing 
investment and manufacturing back or deciding where to do it, 
is locking in the pro-growth provisions permanently of the tax 
code you have within the corporate rate, which is one of the 
reasons I think it drove--like, real wages in 2017, 2018 went 
up more than $6,000, the greatest--again, more than the 
previous 10 years combined. The unemployment rate fell. Child 
poverty fell significantly, the fastest rate since the 1960s. 
So making sure you lock in the pro-growth provisions like the 
corporate rate.
    Now, I would continue to lock in those lower marginal rates 
for families and small businesses, certainly, as they come out 
of an epic period of inflation. Very key that we keep that 
going.
    I would extend and simplify the small business tax 
deduction of 20 percent for pass-throughs. They do employ half 
of all the workers in America. That deduction has been--has 
supported more than 2.5 million jobs and grown Main Street, I 
think, beautifully.
    So I would also continue--try to make permanent incentives 
for innovation, for expensing for R&D, the past definition for 
interest deductibility because they are so important to job 
opportunities and rising paychecks.
    Representative Malliotakis. I know President Trump has said 
he wants to also focus on manufacturing and bringing our 
domestic supply chain home. And I think, you know, one thing 
that didn't happen in 2017 was COVID. It came afterwards, and I 
think it opened up all our eyes on the reliance on foreign 
countries, particularly communist China, for pharmaceuticals, 
80 percent of APIs being manufactured there, medical devices, 
nanotechnology.
    I have legislation that would repatriate a lot of this and 
incentivize businesses to come back to Puerto Rico, for 
example, pharmaceutical infrastructure that they had there in 
the 1990s. What are your recommendations of what we can do 
there? And should we offer a lower tax rate if a--for 
repatriating manufacturing here or creating a new facility here 
that could provide jobs and also address those national 
security needs?
    Chairman Brady. Yes, so you--one, you are thinking the 
right way. And I think, first, you have already taken a big 
step. The lower corporate rate, the modern international rate, 
the incentives on innovation, research, manufacturing produced 
real results. The manufacturing jobs that were created the 
first two years after tax reform were the highest growth we 
have seen in a long, long time.
    Secondly, I think the deregulation role the President 
played played another key role for making American companies 
very--Main Street to the largest--very competitive. Keeping it 
to here, as well.
    I think you can look at--I would not single out certain 
industries for incentives, but do the broad-based incentives. 
For example, if you look at businesses, I think one of the 
reasons our economy has prospered well here over the last four 
years is the tax code allowed companies to invest in new supply 
chains. One of the biggest expenses for repatriating is the 
cost of the building, the cost of equipment in it, the 
software, the technology that goes with it.
    I know you have been thinking about how do we create the 
incentives to do that. I think create it within the existing 
provisions and do it broad-based enough that you are not 
picking one winner over another, but you are doing it broad-
based so that we can, again, become medically independent, you 
know crucial critical minerals, all the things you are thinking 
about for a stronger economy for the long term.
    Representative Malliotakis. Thank you very much.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Okay. We are going to go to----
    Representative Porter. Thank you very much, Vice Chairman 
Schweikert.
    My Republican colleagues have planned today's hearing to 
talk about how great they think President Trump's 2017 tax law 
was ahead of many of the provisions expiring next year. I want 
to focus my time on one piece of the Trump tax law that I 
strongly opposed, which is the deduction--the cap on the 
deduction of state and local taxes, which is also known as 
SALT.
    Ms. Jacoby, can you just explain what the SALT deduction 
is?
    Ms. Jacoby. Sure, thank you, Representative. Yes, the SALT 
cap refers to a $10,000 cap on the amount of state and local 
taxes that a taxpayer can deduct from their taxes.
    Representative Porter. And this SALT deduction is not a new 
concept. It was in our tax code since the inception of the 
Federal income tax in 1913, and its purpose is to prevent 
Americans from being double taxed. If you earn $50,000 and you 
pay $5,000 of that in tax to state and local government, you 
don't have that income available anymore. So it effectively 
allowed you to be taxed on the remaining 45,000. That is the 
effect of the deduction.
    Why does this deduction--why might this deduction be 
important to families, California families in particular?
    Ms. Jacoby. I think that the understanding among many 
households is that they are not fully able to benefit from all 
of that tax that they are not able to deduct on their Federal 
taxes.
    Representative Porter. Right. So most--many Californians 
owe more than $10,000 in state and local taxes. Remember that 
state and local taxes also includes the property tax that you 
pay and the state taxes that fund the school systems, that fund 
public safety. So the cap, the $10,000 limit on the state and 
local tax deduction, really punished taxpayers in states with 
significant tax burdens who fund services, that do help grow 
our economy, like investments in education and infrastructure.
    My office issued a report five years ago showing that 
nearly half of the constituents in my district used the SALT, 
the state and local tax deduction, with an average deduction of 
more than $22,000 per household. And the Trump tax law cut that 
deduction in more than half, capping it at $10,000. And this 
hurt many middle-class families whose communities are investing 
in public services.
    And we want states and localities to provide services to 
people. We think they are closer to communities than the 
Federal Government. And that SALT cap also made it harder for 
homeowners and would-be first-time homeowners to buy houses 
because the property tax they will owe would not be fully 
deductible.
    President Trump didn't make his motives unclear here. He 
stated that the cap on the SALT deduction was intended to 
punish so-called blue states who did not support him in the 
2016 election. This tax law effectively discriminates against 
taxpayers who earn the exact same income based solely on where 
they live. I think that is wrong as a matter of Federal policy, 
and that Congress should not repeat that mistake next year.
    There are concerns about whether the state and local tax 
deduction benefits those at the highest part of the income 
spectrum. So I have a solution. The very first bill I 
introduced this Congress was my SALT Act. It would eliminate 
that state and local tax deduction cap for families that make 
under $400,000 in annual income. For filers making 400,000 and 
above, the SALT cap would start at $60,000. It would be capped, 
as Trump did, and would taper as you climb so that people 
earning--taxpayers earning $1 million or more couldn't claim 
the deduction at all. With the revenue raised from that change, 
my legislation would create enough funding to provide hearing 
and vision coverage for every Medicare recipient.
    This shows we can fund the right priorities when we enact 
the right tax policy. At a time when the cost of housing is sky 
high and too many Americans cannot save enough to afford a 
home, Congress shouldn't make home ownership even more 
unaffordable for working and middle-class families by extending 
this harmful SALT cap. We heard from voters across the country 
that costs are too high. So we need to lower their taxes, their 
Federal taxes, by restoring the SALT deduction.
    The Republican Party controlled the House, the Senate, and 
the White House when it enacted the Trump tax law that punished 
Californians. They have a governing trifecta next year, and I 
urge them to use it to fix the state and local deduction tax 
cap.
    I yield back.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Thank you.
    Senator Schmitt. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I think when this 
was enacted in, you know, in 2017, this was a big move forward, 
I think, in helping working families and small businesses. I 
think that the--essentially, unless you are organized as a C-
corp, many of these tax cuts would have never helped you unless 
if you had the, you know, the flow-through, the--you know, the 
closely helds, the LLCs, the LLPs. They were able to realize, 
those small businesses that put that money back into their 
businesses or hire more people, I think that was one of the 
brilliant moves of the 2017 legislation.
    I wasn't here then. I will be here next year to work on 
some of these things. And I guess my first question for you, 
Chairman Brady, in addition to thanking you for all the work 
you did with the congressional baseball team--we stand on the 
shoulder of giants, shoulders of giants, thank you for that 
work--but your work as chairman of the Ways and Means Committee 
and your work on this--if you were--if I were going back home 
this weekend and somebody asked me, you know, why is this 
important, why is it important to extend, what are a couple of 
statistics that you would point to?
    Chairman Brady. You know, I--Senator, thank you for the 
kind words, and thank you for your baseball prowess, as well, 
on the field. I have seen it up front.
    So without a question, this tax code, which is now built 
for growth, had its greatest impact on workers' paychecks, 
without a question. And that came from the pass-through rate 
that we lowered for Main Street businesses to try to create 
parity for the corporations. They are taxed at a large level. 
We essentially got it closer to even there, and created the 
investment that our Main Street businesses--the incentives for 
growth.
    But paychecks are a big way--there is no question that 
growth in the three years after TCJA, the nine percent real 
wage, people were getting ahead every month. Every month it was 
outpacing inflation significantly. I think that is the main 
reason to lock in these low rates, to continue the growth and 
competitiveness there.
    I think we saw child poverty reduced at the fastest rate 
since the 1960s not by sending them government checks, but by 
getting their parents ample opportunities for jobs and rising 
paychecks, and we saw that done in a sustainable way, that you 
can lock in as well as you as you move forward on extending 
these.
    I think too we live in a world where a lot of our companies 
have income that is mobile. You want them to choose the United 
States to invest in that new plant down the road, the new 
research, the jobs along Main Street. This tax code is built 
for growth of Main Street in a major way in the U.S., in a 
major way. Our goal was not to level the playing field; it was 
to tilt it our direction.
    Senator Schmitt. Now I will just ask another question, and 
also for you, Doctor, too.
    You mentioned inflation. So I think all the savings--and 
you had a--you know, people's income, no matter what your race, 
your gender, line of work, whatever, went up after this, and 
that was the goal. And I think that happened. And I come from a 
working-class family in a working-class neighborhood, and 
people felt that.
    And then, of course, you have got the Inflation Reduction 
Act, you have got the American Recovery Act, 1.4 trillion 
pumped into the economy. And then, you know, there is energy 
issues, and all of a sudden everything costs a lot more. So 
whatever those gains were were certainly eaten into by 
inflation.
    So knowing those set of circumstances, what happened 
before, the amount of spending that took place after this went 
into place, what are the best areas to sort of double down on 
or do more of--or do less of, I guess, if you were to 
recalibrate this--for expanded growth next year? What would be 
a couple of things you would identify?
    Both of you, please.
    Chairman Brady. So I would--to echo Doug Holtz-Eakin's 
initial points, I would find a way to simplify that small 
business pass-through tax cut. It does good work. I don't think 
the economy captures the growth that comes from that provision. 
It is meaningful, but I think it is actually bigger than we 
believe. It is an awfully complicated--on the day it was signed 
I knew it was too complicated. I think we can make that work 
much better.
    I would continue--you know, tax rates on corporations may 
or may not be positive or popular, but it drives so much of the 
paycheck and incentives. Whatever the--if you can lower that 
rate, whatever it is tied to--R&D it makes better, innovation 
it makes better, manufacturing--it is sort of that crown jewel 
that drives growth sort of throughout the economy.
    And one of the points, Senator, I would make is we didn't 
lower rates for corporations. We lowered it on them to drive 
the growth and the paycheck increases we wanted. Then 
corporations paid for more than 80 percent of their own tax cut 
because they knew, one, we needed to do that to balance the 
provisions there, but they believed they would have a stronger 
economy for their workers and their customers, and they do.
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. Briefly, I would say the key is to have a 
fiscally disciplined focus on supply side incentives. Supply 
side incentives give you growth without the price pressures. An 
undisciplined approach will scare bond markets, drive up rates, 
and would be counterproductive when you are trying to improve 
incentives to invest. So a fiscally disciplined supply-side 
approach is what you are going to need.
    Senator Schmitt. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Thank you, Senator.
    Senator Hassan.
    Senator Hassan. Thank you very much. I appreciate this 
hearing, and thanks to you and the chair for holding it.
    To our witnesses, thank you all for being here today. I 
want to start with a question to Mr. Arensmeyer and Ms. Jacoby.
    In communities across New Hampshire it is increasingly 
difficult for workers to find affordable places to live. And I 
am sure we have all--all of us have constituents who are 
struggling with this. The housing shortage drives up costs for 
workers and makes it harder for small businesses to hire the 
workforce that they need.
    So Mr. Arensmeyer, can you talk about the drag that housing 
shortages are having on the economy, particularly when it comes 
to small business growth?
    Mr. Arensmeyer. Well, housing--Senator, housing has not 
been something we have focused on directly on. Clearly, like 
other costs in the economy, we focus mostly on costs of 
supplies and just the inability to potentially raise prices to 
match the increase in costs.
    Senator Hassan. Yes.
    Mr. Arensmeyer. Housing is absolutely, you know, part of 
that. And certainly, if that--if housing stagnates, there are a 
lot of small businesses who work in the housing space, 
construction and otherwise. So there is an indirect effect on a 
slowing housing market with small businesses.
    So yes, like, it is a huge part of our economy and 
absolutely any drag is going to impact small businesses for 
sure.
    Senator Hassan. Well, in my state one of the things it is 
really impacting is recruitment of employees. We have 
businesses that can't find employees because employees can't 
move to New Hampshire. They--even high-income employees can't 
find a place to live. So it is the number-one priority I hear 
about from businesses, most of which are small in my state.
    Ms. Jacoby, how can the Federal Government better 
incentivize the development of housing that workers can afford 
through the tax code in ways that work for smaller states like 
New Hampshire that may have really rural communities? You know, 
100-unit multi-family housing is not going to work in some of 
my communities.
    Ms. Jacoby. I thank you for that question, Senator. Yes, I 
think, you know, others have mentioned increasing housing 
supply through, you know, proven measures like the Low-Income 
Housing Tax Credit. That is an important way to increase 
housing supply and reduce costs.
    Another thing that I think often gets left out of the 
conversation is the importance of rental assistance. Tax 
incentives for increasing housing supply often leave out the 
lowest-income workers who cannot even afford housing at sort of 
mid-level--mid levels. And so increasing the availability of 
rental assistance through vouchers is also very important.
    Senator Hassan. Thank you very much.
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin, it is nice to see you. I have worked with 
my colleagues on both sides of the aisle to restore the full 
and immediate research and development tax deduction, which, as 
you all know, expired in 2022.
    Restoring the full deduction is vital to our national 
security and our economic development. When American companies 
invest in R&D to develop new products and technologies, it 
obviously stimulates our economy, promotes job growth, and 
helps us outcompete countries like China. The Chinese 
Government currently provides a 200 percent super deduction for 
R&D, effectively giving firms an immediate $2 million deduction 
for every $1 million invested in R&D. Meanwhile, American 
businesses can only immediately deduct $100,000 for $1 million 
in R&D development.
    So how does the current R&D deduction impair American 
businesses' ability to plan and make investments going forward?
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. I think there are two main channels. It is 
a really important question because this is central to our 
strategic competition with China----
    Senator Hassan. Yes.
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin [continuing]. And to America's future in 
general.
    One channel is that--it says if I have a choice between 
something I can fully deduct and my R&D, I do the other thing. 
And so you are skewing the composition of business activities 
away from the innovation we need.
    The second is especially important for smaller businesses. 
The fact that they can't expense it, and they have--and they 
can only deduct it has huge cash flow implications for the 
small business guys.
    Senator Hassan. Right.
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. And this was a disaster for them, quite 
frankly.
    Senator Hassan. Yes.
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. And reversing it, I think, would be very, 
very important very quickly.
    Senator Hassan. And obviously--and I think you just 
mentioned this--very important in our strategy to outcompete 
China, right?
    To Ms. Jacoby, the Child Tax Credit is a critical lifeline 
for hard-working families. Over the past year members of both 
parties have expressed strong support for expanding and 
strengthening the Child Tax Credit. As we look to next year, 
any tax package should prioritize cutting taxes for hard-
working families, which would lower costs and lift children out 
of poverty. What changes should Congress consider to the Child 
Tax Credit to reach more hard-working families, including 
changes that have had bipartisan support?
    Ms. Jacoby. Yes, thank you. So the most important thing 
that the Child Tax Credit can do is better reach the 19 million 
children who are currently left out of the credit----
    Senator Hassan. Right.
    Ms. Jacoby [continuing]. Or don't receive the full credit. 
That change would--and did in 2021--reduce child poverty to 
historically low levels. So that is the most important change.
    But any change to the Child Tax Credit should prioritize 
those kids. The Wyden Smith bill that my colleagues worked very 
hard to study and analyze, and--that would have made the Child 
Tax Credit more available and helped lift 500,000 children out 
of poverty.
    Senator Hassan. Yes, well, thank you.
    And I will just thank my colleagues in the House for 
passing the Wyden Smith agreement. We are trying on the Senate 
side, and look forward to continuing to work with all of you to 
see what we can get across the finish line. Thank you.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Thank you, Senator. The people's 
house.
    Senator Hassan. I love being here. We are doing all sorts 
of live quorum calls, so I am going to dash. But thank you very 
much.
    Representative Moore. Thank you so much.
    Representative Smucker. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And I 
was--I came--first took office in 2017, so I was here during 
the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and I was really 
proud of the impact that had on my constituents who really saw 
and felt that increase in the average household income.
    And, you know, it is remarkable how different they feel 
now, and I think you saw the results of this election partly 
due to that after the economic policies of this Administration 
compared to the first few years of the Trump Administration. So 
I was very proud of the work we did. And I think the statistic 
that I am probably most proud of is that we had the lowest 
poverty rate than at any other time in our history. So we 
lifted more people out of poverty than any other time.
    This is a different time, though, and I want to get back to 
some of the comments you made, Dr. Holtz-Eakin, and then maybe 
Chairman Brady, as well.
    And by the way, Chairman Brady's leadership is why we got 
the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, so I was really proud to serve with 
you at that time.
    But we now have 36 trillion in debt as of today, adding $2 
trillion per year. One of the ways--and my belief is that is 
one of the greatest threats that we are faced with, where it is 
a predictable crisis. We are going to have a sovereign debt 
crisis within the next 10, 20 years, probably, if we don't 
change the trajectory. One of the ways we get out--not the only 
way, but it is important to have strong economic growth, back 
to your point, doubling income every 20 years versus every 20--
every 50 years.
    And so we have to get the tax code right, and that is why I 
think, you know--we heard from Mr. Beyer. You know, you believe 
as well it is important that we put growth policies in place. 
But I also believe that we can't add to the debt with what we 
are doing at this particular time. I think it is very, very 
important.
    So how do you square that? Is it possible to do that? Can 
we extend the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that I 
think are so important to driving a growing economy, and do 
that without adding to the debt? I would like to get your 
thoughts on that.
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. So there is a very, I think, confused and 
confusing public discussion of this.
    Simply extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act keeps us at the 
current policy and the current level of deficits and debt and 
debt growth. So last year we had $1.8 trillion in deficit, 6.3 
percent of GDP. Over a trillion of that was interest. So it 
should be a warning sign. But to simply continue doing that 
is--we would have $2 trillion deficits, and we would be on the 
trajectory that I outlined at the beginning of my testimony, so 
that it is not that we are going to cut taxes, we are just 
going to continue with the current level if we just extend.
    You can do better than that. You could close the gap and 
improve the growth incentives. And as I mentioned, I think the 
gold standard would be to have a deficit-neutral tax reform 
that would allow you to do the tax reform that Mr. Brady could 
design, and which would be permanent because it would not 
produce deficits, you wouldn't have to sunset it. Permanent 
incentives are always better than temporary incentives. That is 
the gold standard. That is where you want to go.
    Realistically, to do that you have to bring in the spending 
side of the Federal budget. There is no way to solve the fiscal 
problem without addressing the spending. I can do that at great 
length, but I don't want to use up all your time. But Social 
Security and Medicare are over 50 percent of non-interest 
spending over the next 10 years.
    Representative Smucker. Yes.
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. And they are growing faster--5.5 for 
Social Security and 7 for Medicare--than any revenue base is 
going to grow. They are going to grow at about four.
    Representative Smucker. Yes, and I want to give Chairman 
Brady just----
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. So you----
    Representative Smucker. We will talk----
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. You have to deal with that.
    Representative Smucker. Yes, we will talk a lot more, I am 
sure.
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. Yes.
    Representative Smucker. But, like, I 100 percent agree, and 
I think we have to go to the spending side. Spending at about 
26 percent of GDP is at the highest level ever. So we have got 
to get to it.
    But Chairman Brady, I would just like to--I only have 
another minute, but I would like to get your reaction to that, 
as well.
    Chairman Brady. Yes, I think permanence is so important to 
the tax code for so many reasons. And I know you are going to 
have a pretty spirited debate about how much of this will be 
paid for going forward. But all I know is finding pay-fors are 
hard. If you remember, in 2017 we had $5.5 trillion of tax 
cuts. We paid for $4 trillion of it up front. So 72 percent of 
those tax cuts were paid for when President Trump signed that 
bill. Since then we have had significant revenue growth, 
somewhere between a half a trillion and 1 trillion. So we have 
raised that cover significantly, as well.
    It is terrifically hard to do pay-fors, but it is part of 
the process of trying to make permanent, you know, the 
provisions that most lift wages and most give you growth in 
competition and innovation. Yes, and it is worth pursuing that 
permanence.
    Representative Smucker. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I know I 
am out of time, but I do want to submit for the record, if I 
may--I wanted to--my next question was about 199A. I would be 
very interested in hearing some of the ideas to simplify it. I 
think it is really important to our Main Street businesses. And 
I have a study about the economic activity supported by the 
section 199A deduction I would like to submit for the record.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Without objection.
    [Representative Smucker's submission appears in the 
Submissions for the Record]
    Representative Smucker. Thank you.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Ms. Moore.
    Representative Moore. Thank you so much, Mr. Chairman. And, 
you know, I will just kind of pick up for you, Mr. Smucker, 
where you left off, if that is okay. I have the exact same 
question that you have: How did you all square this all?
    First, before I do, just let me say to Mr. Brady I really 
miss you. I have been here for a minute now, but I remember 
when I first came in naive, wanting to be on the Ways and Means 
Committee, and, you know, everybody, particularly Nancy Pelosi, 
told me what a lunatic I was to even think that. And I actually 
was so dumb that I think the first person on the Ways and Means 
Committee I came to see if I could get on the committee was 
you. I am a Democrat. It just shows you, you know, where 
desperation will lead you. [Laughter.]
    Chairman Brady. You have done a great job.
    Representative Moore. Listen, but I really enjoy the 
encounters that we have outside of this room, but I--this is 
really--I really get your point that you were going for growth. 
But I do recall from Dr. Holtz-Eakin's testimony that he says 
we got a growth problem and a debt problem.
    And you said we had a growth problem because, even though 
the economy is growing, which is a good thing, it is not 
growing enough or in the right ways to have people meet their 
basic needs, you know? And I guess I am sort of setting this up 
before I ask my question. We got a growth problem and a debt 
problem.
    So question one is, as we think about extending these tax 
cuts for the sake of growth, you know, do we need to think 
about ways maybe like the 199 sort of reforms that we need to 
make since that costs so much money--that would be, like, $684 
billion over 10 years just to not close that gap. But should we 
do something like that?
    Because what I worry about is the notion of if we extend 
all these tax cuts for 4.6 trillion more dollars to the debt, 
and then we are--we have a President who has assistants that 
are talking about cutting 2 trillion of waste and all that, at 
what point are we going to be cutting into bone and marrow? And 
I think my colleagues already mentioned Social Security and 
Medicare. I wasn't going to go that far. I was just going to 
say, you know, like food stamps and Head Start.
    But at what--how do you support raising these taxes, 
maintaining the corporate tax cuts, spending 4.6 trillion more 
dollars, how does that square--to borrow Mr. Smucker's jargon--
how does that square with us really not sending the economy in 
a tailspin, considering that people would not, you know, pile 
on top of that tariffs?
    And so just share with me--maybe I will choose Mr. 
Arensmeyer. I mean, have I--how does this square? I have sort 
of shared what they said.
    Mr. Arensmeyer. Well, Congresswoman, I--you all are going 
to need to decide how much you can continue to increase the 
deficit with the tax code.
    Our position is, yes, we need tax incentives, and 199 is a 
perfect example. But they need to be designed in a way that is 
going to bring the maximum impact.
    Representative Moore. Right.
    Mr. Arensmeyer. And it is going to level the playing field. 
And our whole point on 199A is--to use that as an example--is 
that right now it is very skewed toward the businesses that 
probably don't need it as much. That--as I said in my 
testimony, 70 percent of the benefit going to 4.5 percent of 
the pass-through businesses.
    So then we come back and say, okay, you can redesign this 
bottom up. We are suggesting a $25,000 deduction bottom up. You 
can pick a number, but it is obviously not free. But 
ultimately, whatever you decide to do within the framework of a 
manageable deficit, it should be targeted to where the economic 
need is the greatest. And our point is that it is the smallest 
businesses in this country who are generating jobs----
    Representative Moore. I think so, too. I would love to have 
asked more questions, but I do think that that is really one of 
the ways--if we aren't going to pass the whole package, because 
that--and I also just want to make sure that you don't think 
that the TCJA has paid for itself as part of this equation.
    Mr. Arensmeyer. When you--I think the numbers are what they 
are.
    Representative Moore. Ms. Jacoby.
    Mr. Arensmeyer. Okay.
    Ms. Jacoby. No, definitely not.
    Representative Moore. Okay. With the indulgence of the 
chair, I will just finish my sentence.
    I just want to thank you all for your testimony, and I 
just--I do want to look at this, you know, in a very serious 
way, not in a kind of a partisan way, because I think we have 
to make some choices about the tax cuts that we continue to 
provide, because growth is only one aspect of it.
    As Dr. Holtz-Eakin said, you got to be concerned about it 
actually trickling down because this--the wages that have been 
increased have not come from the TCJA, they have come from 
states and cities and places where the minimum wage has been 
raised. Am I right about that, Ms. Jacoby?
    Ms. Jacoby. There is solid academic research that found 
that the corporate tax cut specifically did not increase wages 
for most workers.
    Representative Moore. Right. And so we got to be more 
mindful of how we grow our economy so that it benefits 
everybody and not just the top folks. Thank you so very much.
    Thank you, Mr. Chairman, for that indulgence.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Mr. Arrington.
    Representative Arrington. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, to my 
friend and fellow Texan and exceptional leader whom we all 
dearly miss, thank you for being here and for your 
contributions to our beloved country.
    And we have got to get back to those policies that 
incentivize investment and growth, and unleash prosperity 
again. And we are in a--quite a predicament. At this stage we 
are on--to say it is an unsustainable fiscal path as it relates 
to deficits and debt is the understatement of the hour.
    So things have changed, and the fiscal health of the 
country is in rapid decline. And so we have to face this 
opportunity for the country clear-eyed, sober-minded, and in a 
way that I think balances the two key ingredients, which is 
simply to reduce spending and increase growth.
    I think there is some there is myths, and I want you to 
respond to this, but I think there is a myth by some of my 
Republican colleagues that we can just grow out of the $36 
trillion, 125 percent debt to GDP hole that we are in that will 
get only exponentially worse, 22 billion--22 trillion, rather, 
trillion dollars over the next 10 years. And then it gets 
just--you know, we would never get there in the 30 years, which 
is about 130 trillion. And 95 percent to 98 percent of that are 
two programs that you mentioned, Mr. Holtz-Eakin, earlier.
    So it just--we go off the cliff at some point, whether it 
is 5 years, 10 years, 15 years. The scary thing is I don't know 
that we can predict it, and once it happens and it turns on us, 
I don't think there is a way out of it. So we have to feel that 
sense of urgency now, and we have to take on this opportunity 
to rein in spending and put back the incentives that will 
balance the supply and demand that has been out of whack and 
has created this record inflation in an economy that is, I 
think, fragile, quite frankly.
    So when I think about one of the fundamental questions will 
be dynamic scoring, I think that has been underscored, 
undervalued, underestimated, the yield of growth people coming 
off of welfare and onto payrolls, people investing, and the 
revenues coming into the Treasury coffers. But I am not 
convinced that all tax cuts pay for themselves. I just--I don't 
believe it. I have never heard any thoughtful person that has 
been an expert in this area say that it is the case. But we 
also have trillions of dollars in opportunities for direct 
spending savings, and we have been talking about them for 
decades.
    What is the right approach, Chairman Brady? And I am going 
to ask Doug also to opine on this. What is the right approach 
here? How much credence should we give--CBO has gotten it 
wrong, JCT has gotten it wrong both on the downside of 
underestimating it, but--again, I think it is a stretch to get 
to a place where we just think it is somehow going to pay for 
every nickel and dime that we, you know, that it would cost in 
any cost estimate. What are your thoughts on that? Am I wrong 
or----
    Chairman Brady. So, Mr. Chairman, one, for as long as I 
have known you, you wake up every morning worried about the 
debt and deficits because of the impact on our communities, on 
our families, on our country as a whole.
    I think about 10 years ago this committee held a hearing 
about the debt ceiling. What is the real debt ceiling? We 
invited, I think, four or five economists from across a broad 
spectrum of philosophies, but they agreed--they disagreed on a 
lot, but they agreed on three things: one, we will know that 
real debt ceiling when we hit it; two, it is sooner than you 
think; and three, you don't want to find out.
    So my belief has been that you have got to have growth and 
guardrails around spending. You have got to right-size the 
Federal Government in its spending habits to get it to a 
sustainable level so that--it doesn't help last year that our 
revenue growth was 11 percent, our spending was higher than 
that. These are huge numbers for growth. Yet we are not able to 
constrain the spending that deepens the deficit.
    No, not all tax cuts pay for themselves. But tax reform 
can, which is--in 2017 we did a big--took a big step, too, 
which is eliminating provisions to fund the growth and to fund 
those rates--not totally, but significantly--that direction.
    I know there was----
    Representative Arrington. Was that number four trillion?
    Chairman Brady. So 4 trillion and--yes, in--which was 72 
percent at the get-go, plus the new revenue. I think corporate 
revenue this year will be at the highest level percentage of 
GDP. Some of that is from the reforms we did back in 2017--you 
did--that are continuing to grow the revenue in a significant 
way.
    But you have got to have the fiscal constraint, whatever 
that mechanism is, to avoid that debt ceiling crash.
    Representative Arrington. Thank you.
    Can--do you mind if Doug responds?
    Chairman Brady. I took Doug Holtz-Eakin's time, I 
apologize.
    Representative Arrington. Would you mind if Mr. Holtz-Eakin 
responds?
    Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. So let me repeat some things the chairman 
said in my own words. I mean, if you want to get the best 
growth out of the tax policy of 2025, have it be permanent, 
have it be structured toward increasing the supply of skills 
and innovations and capital in the economy--in this economy, to 
tilt the playing field as was done before. And when you get to 
the hard job of balancing that against the imperative that you 
take away the debt headwinds to growth, which are real and 
particularly dangerous if financial markets lose confidence in 
the United States, you begin by first broadening the base.
    The rule of tax reform is broaden the base, lower the 
rates. In this circumstance you may need to raise some revenue. 
The broader base is the solution to that. And this will not be 
as anti-growth as jacking up the corporate rate, which seems to 
be everyone's reflex. That would be a disastrous mistake, in my 
view, to first go there. You don't want to jack up rates on 
small businesses. That is not going to be helpful.
    So, you know, that is it. And then you are going to run out 
of the capacity to do that without solving our fiscal 
challenges. And you will have to turn to the spending side and 
develop a strategy to get to the point where our large 
mandatory spending programs grow at the same pace as the 
economy, not faster. Once you can do that, you can actually 
bend the debt to GDP ratio south. If it goes south even 
infinitesimally, financial markets will be like, okay, they are 
good. You take off the table the disastrous thing those 
economists were trying to avoid, and you go about solving the 
other real problems that the country faces.
    But these are the big ones right now, and that is how I 
think about challenging it.
    Representative Arrington. I am grateful for your insight. 
Thank you.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Mr. Beyer, questions.
    Representative Beyer. Mr. Chairman, thank you very much.
    First I want to pile on with my friend, Mr. Arrington, that 
I too worry a great deal about our rapid fiscal decline--Ms. 
Jacoby mentioned it, Dr. Holtz-Eakin again--and just point out 
that just the tax gap alone is estimated between 425 billion on 
the low side per year and a trillion on the high side. I saw a 
number coming out of the transition yesterday that put it north 
of $800 billion a year, which is one of the reasons why we have 
fought so hard to put money into the IRS to go get that. It 
wasn't a matter of pumping up people with guns to go on small 
businesses, it was to take--because we know that people that 
have 1099s and W-2s, 99 percent of them pay it. It is the 
people that don't that that--we are trying to get there.
    And Mr. Holtz-Eakin, Dr. Holtz-Eakin, I want to say when 
you say ``deficit-neutral tax reform,'' we are in the minority. 
We are facing a trifecta. That will be our number-one goal. At 
least my number-one goal is we redo TCJA through 
reconciliation, that if it can be deficit-neutral that would be 
a great step forward.
    Chairman Brady, I don't want to put you on the spot too 
much, but the President-elect on September 17 posted on Truth 
Social he was going to ``get SALT back,'' and lower your taxes. 
Any idea what to expect in these next couple of months?
    Chairman Brady. You know, on that provision I don't. I know 
that, you know, he had concerns about it in--during tax reform, 
coming from New York--obviously, a tax--a state with very high 
taxes. But as we explained to him when we dug into the SALT tax 
issue, it is the single biggest subsidy in the individual code, 
and goes predominantly more than half to families making more 
than $1 million.
    What was worse was rural communities, subsidized cities, 
low and modest income, the wealthy, blue--red states, blue 
states, non-itemizers, itemizers. So we concluded, why doesn't 
everyone just pay their own state and local taxes? I mean, we 
choose where we live and work.
    Representative Beyer. Yes.
    Chairman Brady. We have a choice in who elects us. Why does 
my neighbor have any obligation to pay my state and local 
taxes? Why am I obligated to pay others?
    Representative Beyer. Okay.
    Chairman Brady. So what we did was took the average SALT 
deduction across America, doubled it to create the marriage 
issue there to help with joint filers, and we used the money to 
lower tax rates for middle-class families and small businesses.
    Representative Beyer. Great----
    Chairman Brady. So I still believe that philosophy and 
concept is correct. Certainly, the President and some of our 
Members in Congress in those states where it is a very 
sensitive political issue----
    Representative Beyer. Mr. Chairman----
    Mr. Brady [continuing]. Are obviously going to be----
    Representative Beyer. Let me move on, because I am running 
out of time.
    Ms. Jacoby, you know, looking at how we are paying for 
this, I was impressed that Vivek Ramaswamy said we can just 
take every Federal employee whose Social Security number ends 
in an even number and fire all of them, and then that cuts you 
by 50 percent. But that may not be realistic, but they are 
talking very seriously right now about cutting SNAP programs 
and the nutrition programs, taking the health care--the 
Affordable Care Act subsidies. What does that do to growth in 
our economy when you make families hungry and when you take 
away health care from people?
    Ms. Jacoby. Thank you, Representative Beyer.
    Yes, I think in my view, using--cutting spending, reducing 
benefits for low-income households through, you know, reducing 
their health care, reducing their food assistance, that would 
be a hugely harmful way to pay for regressive tax cuts. Paying 
for regressive tax cuts by taking health care, taking food 
assistance away would cause unimaginable hardship. And taking 
food assistance away from kids makes it harder for them to pay 
attention in school, it makes it harder for them to graduate, 
and that hurts the economy down the line.
    Representative Beyer. Great, thank you very much.
    Mr. Arensmeyer, you have been a champion for small business 
for a long time. And one of the reasons, I think, in TCJA that 
the 199As came was because, otherwise, an LLC, a partnership 
would be paying 37 percent, 39.6 percent versus the 
corporation's 21 percent. How do we justify getting rid of 199A 
and taking it back up to close to 40 percent if corporations 
are at 21?
    Mr. Arensmeyer. Well, Congressman, our position is not to 
get rid of 199A, it is to reform it. It is to make sure that 
the benefits are going to the smallest businesses who need the 
help the most.
    And our whole economy, particularly our small business 
economy, depends on as much money in the economy, particularly 
at the community level, as possible. So it is about where do we 
need the--what is going to do the most good for the economy and 
what is going to be the fairest way to do it? And right now, 
with 44 percent getting 70 percent of the benefit, that is not 
equitable or particularly stimulating to our small business 
economy.
    Representative Beyer. Great, thank you.
    I yield back, sir.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Thank you, Mr. Beyer. And now for 
the great joy of holding the gavel, you can all leave. I am--
they are mine.
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin, somewhere in one of my binders I have a 
study that actually looked at the corporate tax rate. And 
within that study it was claiming about 67 percent of that 
ultimately flowed through to workers.
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. Yes.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. How can that be true, and then 
some of the things being said on the other side?
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. They can't all be true simultaneously. We 
know that, as a matter of process of elimination, the 
corporate--any corporate tax will be paid for by either the 
workers, the shareholders, or the consumers, because that tax 
will be passed on in some form. The ultimate burden will be 
shifted.
    There is a lot of empirical research on corporate taxation 
in general to try to find the incidence without conclusive 
evidence--I think that is a fair reading of that literature--
and there have been some specific studies of the Tax Cuts and 
Jobs Act, some of which have concluded that it had a big impact 
on the investments, and that will be passed on in terms of 
higher productivity to wages. So--
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. If I remember my----
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. So that is where we are.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. If I remember my elementary 
school economics class, wages only go up, functionally, really 
from two things: inflation, which means you are just peddling, 
you know, treading water; or productivity, and productivity is 
your primary driver of wages. Do you think that is where there 
is the formularic problem on particularly the way the left 
likes to calculate this number, is that wage growth is 
substantially because of investments in capital equipment 
that--you are not getting that plugged back into the wage 
growth?
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. I think--and the biggest problem with the 
TCJA studies are the time period is too short. You have this 
very important reform, a couple of years of clear sailing, a 
pandemic, and then now we have come out of it, we have got 
maybe a couple more data points on the basic mechanism of have 
an investment, have it in the United States, have it generate 
higher productivity, have that show up in the form of higher 
wages. That is something that I am quite confident, as time 
goes on and we look back, we will say that was a good reform.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Would you agree that the 
expensing and research and development expensing accomplished a 
substantial portion, if not almost half, of the actual economic 
expansion?
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. Those are very important provisions. And I 
was disappointed to see them begin to sunset and phase out, 
because that was, I thought, an unnecessary headwind to growth 
in the United States. I would have tried to find some way to 
have those remain full expensing for as long as possible.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Well, it is--and how much of that 
benefit from--let's just use expensing and purchasing capital 
equipment, therefore I am more productive, therefore I can pay 
my workers, you know, higher wages, so you end up in the 
virtuous [sic] cycle. But is it also the permanency of that 
cycle?
    Because we actually built a--believe it or not, we did it 
on butcher paper--a horizon chart showing that that is 
depreciation. It doesn't actually have a cost.
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. Right.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. It actually makes money. So it is 
a tax provision that does pay for itself if you build a 
horizon, because all expensing is is, instead of taking it over 
seven years, you took it instantly. But it forced you to buy 
better, faster equipment. But now you have got to buy better, 
faster equipment again a couple of years later because your 
competition is doing it, and you build this virtual cycle of 
getting more and more productive, which means wage growth.
    I mean, do I describe it fairly?
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. Yes. I think, you know, I like expensing 
because it makes it easy to level the playing field among all 
the different ways to make a business more productive. That is 
great.
    The other thing it does is that it insulates you against 
inflation fears. You get the full cost recovery in the first 
year. You don't have to count on the depreciation allowances 
keeping up with inflation somehow, and if they don't you never 
really get full cost recovery, which is a bad thing for the 
investment climate. And permanence makes expensing much more 
valuable because it is just timing. And now you know that the 
timing will continue. But to turn it on and turn it off and 
turn it on and turn it off is a real source of uncertainty to 
businesses trying to make some sort of a capital plan.
    So getting it permanent is even better.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Okay, so it is not only the tax 
policy, but it is the ability to see my horizon.
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. Yes.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Because particularly with some of 
these pieces of equipment, particularly the complex ones--you 
want to buy, you know, the next generation of CRISPR, you know, 
you wait a couple of years for it to show up. Well, what 
happens if the tax code is expiring in that window?
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. Yes. And again, just to reiterate, for 
small businesses the cash flow aspect of the expensing is 
really important. If you are a start-up and you are getting to 
deduct all those, you are less likely to be in a taxable state, 
your cash flows are being entirely plowed back into growth in 
the business. That has been a recipe for success for American 
small businesses for a long time, and this supports that.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Doctor, a conversation--you may 
not remember--you and I had, heaven, almost a couple of years 
ago, was actually in regards to stability within the debt 
markets. How do we do economic expansionary policies, tax code-
wise--and you actually did something that set off a series of 
thoughts with me, and that was you made an argument that it is 
much more than just tax policy. It will be regulatory. It would 
be talent-based immigration policy. It would be our willingness 
to knock down barriers to adopt technology.
    You know, the--we--Mr. Beyer--sorry about that--and I have 
had conversations for a couple of years now of technology that 
could crash the price of health care because one of the great 
sins we engage in here is one of two sins. Well, the way we are 
going to cut spending is we are just going to shift it to you 
as an individual or your state. That is just a shift. That is a 
scam, because we can actually see within the calculations if it 
just raised my state taxes it didn't really help my growth.
    But the second thing we can do is the adoption of 
technology. So health care, one of the great sins--and I 
believe this is left and right--the ACA was a financing bill, 
who got subsidized, who didn't. The Republican alternative was 
a financing bill. Medicare for all is a financing bill. Are we 
willing to actually have the much more disruptive conversation 
of what we pay, and how do we use the tax code, but also what 
comes out of both the budget, Ways and Means to incentivize if 
there is a better, faster way to make someone well?
    If there is a better--you know, the thing I talk about all 
the time, the breath biopsy you blow into, it tells you you 
have a certain virus or bacteria, and you allow the technology 
to bounce off your medical records so you are not allergic to 
something, and order your antivirals. It is a flu kazoo. We 
functionally have that as illegal in the way we do policy here, 
because it would disrupt business models, but it would crash 
the price of delivering health care.
    The only reason I ramble about that is how do we design 
also a tax code and regulatory code that moves the investments 
into productivity and making our lives healthier, faster, 
cheaper to live in?
    And am I rambling, or is there ways you would--if I came to 
you and Chairman Brady--I am not ignoring you two, I just like 
them better. Oh, come on. And forgive my asthma, it is--I come 
to you and say, okay, I got 4.6 trillion, I got to cover over 
10. But I need to maximize the morality of growth, having a 
population. If obesity over the next 10 years will be 9.1 
trillion additional health care expenditure--the Joint Economic 
Committee did a whole report on that last year--it turns out 
making our brothers and sisters healthier is the single 
greatest pay-for in society. What do you do, policy-wise?
    And that is both for you, Chairman Brady, and Dr. Holtz-
Eakin.
    No, no, this is actually--remember, the Affordable Care Act 
is a financing bill.
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. This is--
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. It is not about the price of 
delivering the service.
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. So this is what I would say. I think you 
have put your finger on a problem in health policy. We have 
payment silos. We pour money down part A, pour money down part 
D, part C, part B. We pour money down the Medicaid, the CHIP. 
And these are payments silos that are actually not tethered in 
any way to health outcomes. They are just payment silos.
    And the health sector in general, all the providers, 
beneficiary groups, protect those health silos like mad. And if 
you try to touch them, you know it. They are all in to visit. 
You can't do that. But as a result, you will never get 
disruptive change that provides new business models and general 
improvement in delivery systems and care. Everybody in 
healthcare is in favor of innovation and change, as long as it 
doesn't change your payment silo, as long as they don't get 
touched.
    It is not that different than the tax code. I told you to 
broaden the base. You don't think there are some things in 
there that people are going to protect like mad? They are their 
payment silo. And you have to recognize that the process of 
genuinely innovative, broadly accessible tax reform is knocking 
down those payment silos and giving everybody the same access 
to tax treatment. Beneficial tax treatment, everyone should 
have some access to it. And creating as few silos and targeted 
things as possible, that is the recipe.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. I have the feeling----
    Dr. Holtz-Eakin. We got a lot.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. I have the feeling you and I are 
going to be having a lot more of this conversation.
    Chairman Brady.
    Chairman Brady. And I was struck by your phrase, ``the 
morality of the tax code,'' which I think--the tax code done 
right is a force for good. And we saw the results from a new, 
modern tax code.
    But I actually was sort of thinking, outside that code, if 
it were up to me I would make sure there was a work requirement 
tied to every Federal program that makes sense, because what we 
have learned through the years is that if you learn a skill, if 
you get a job, if you continue in that job, your chances of 
being in poverty are very low. The chances for real income 
growth for your family in a model you set for your children 
just has dramatic benefits, you know, for breaking that cycle 
of poverty, moving people, getting them--reconnecting them with 
the workforce in a positive way.
    And I think, as we--I always focus on the tax code, but I 
also believe that the dignity of work has--is remarkable power 
that our Federal Government should encourage, rather than 
discourage.
    Vice Chairman Schweikert. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
    And without objection--I need to dig it out, but there is a 
University of Chicago Ph.D. who actually did the modeling of 
the Child Tax Credit, and showed that unless you had a worker 
education requirement attached to it, then in 10 years that 
same population was actually poorer, because they didn't move 
up in their skill set. And it is a very well vetted paper, and 
it is something we should use as one of our baselines here.
    With that, I appreciate you giving us time. We have votes 
coming up very, very shortly. I would like to thank everyone 
for being here today. This is an important discussion. I 
believe we are going to take a week if anyone wants to add some 
things to the record, and thank you for your time today.
    [Whereupon, at 3:59 p.m., the committee was adjourned.]
    
    [GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] 
    
    
    Vice Chairman David Schweikert's submission for the Record: 
https://bfi.uchicago.edu/working-paper/2021-115/ & https://
oxfordtax.sbs.ox.ac.uk/sitefiles/wp1105.pdf.
    Representative Lloyd Smucker's submission for the Record: 
https://strgnfibcom.blob.core.windows.net/nfibcom/EY-NFIB- 
Macroeconomic-analysis-of-permanently-extending-the-section-
199A-on-small-businesses.pdf. 

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