[Senate Hearing 118-562]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]


                                                        S. Hrg. 118-562


                    THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS OF POTENTIAL 
                              TAX REFORM IN 2025

=======================================================================

                                HEARING

                               BEFORE THE

                            SUBCOMMITTEE ON
                            ECONOMIC POLICY

                                 OF THE

                              COMMITTEE ON
                   BANKING,HOUSING,AND URBAN AFFAIRS
                          UNITED STATES SENATE

                    ONE HUNDRED EIGHTEENTH CONGRESS

                             SECOND SESSION

                                   ON

           EXAMINING THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS OF POTENTIAL TAX 
                             REFORM IN 2025

                               __________

                           SEPTEMBER 18, 2024

                               __________

  Printed for the use of the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban 
                                Affairs
                                
[GRAPHIC NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]                                


                Available at: https: //www.govinfo.gov /

                                __________

                   U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE                    
58-692 PDF                  WASHINGTON : 2025                  
          
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------    

            COMMITTEE ON BANKING, HOUSING, AND URBAN AFFAIRS

                       SHERROD BROWN, Ohio, Chair

JACK REED, Rhode Island              TIM SCOTT, South Carolina
ROBERT MENENDEZ, New Jersey          MIKE CRAPO, Idaho
JON TESTER, Montana                  MIKE ROUNDS, South Dakota
MARK R. WARNER, Virginia             THOM TILLIS, North Carolina
ELIZABETH WARREN, Massachusetts      JOHN KENNEDY, Louisiana
CHRIS VAN HOLLEN, Maryland           BILL HAGERTY, Tennessee
CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO, Nevada       CYNTHIA M. LUMMIS, Wyoming
TINA SMITH, Minnesota                J.D. VANCE, Ohio
RAPHAEL G. WARNOCK, Georgia          KATIE BOYD BRITT, Alabama
JOHN FETTERMAN, Pennsylvania         KEVIN CRAMER, North Dakota
LAPHONZA R. BUTLER, California       STEVE DAINES, Montana

                     Laura Swanson, Staff Director

               Lila Nieves-Lee, Republican Staff Director

                      Cameron Ricker, Chief Clerk

                      Shelvin Simmons, IT Director

                       Pat Lally, Assistant Clerk

                                 ______

                    Subcommittee on Economic Policy

                 ELIZABETH WARREN, Massachusetts, Chair

                JOHN KENNEDY, Louisiana, Ranking Member

JACK REED, Rhode Island              MIKE ROUNDS, South Dakota
ROBERT MENENDEZ, New Jersey          THOM TILLIS, North Carolina
CHRIS VAN HOLLEN, Maryland           CYNTHIA M. LUMMIS, Wyoming
TINA SMITH, Minnesota                STEVE DAINES, Montana
JOHN FETTERMAN, Pennsylvania

              Gabrielle Elul, Subcommittee Staff Director

        Jennifer Newman, Republican Subcommittee Staff Director


                                  (ii)


                            C O N T E N T S

                              ----------                              

                     WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2024

                                                                   Page

Opening statement of Chair Warren................................     1

Opening statements, comments, or prepared statements of:

                               WITNESSES

Ai-jen Poo, President, National Domestic Workers Alliance; 
  Executive Director, Caring Across Generations..................     3
    Prepared statement...........................................    16
Kitty Richards, Senior Fellow, Groundwork Collaborative and 
  Economic Policy Think Tank.....................................     4
    Prepared statement...........................................    23



                                 (iii)

 
       THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS OF POTENTIAL TAX REFORM IN 2025

                              ----------                              


                     WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2024

                               U.S. Senate,
  Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs,
                           Subcommittee on Economic Policy,
                                                    Washington, DC.
    The Committee met at 2 p.m., via Webex and in room 538, 
Dirksen Senate Office Building, Hon. Elizabeth Warren, Chair of 
the Subcommittee, presiding.

          OPENING STATEMENT OF CHAIR ELIZABETH WARREN

    Chair Warren. This hearing will come to order. Good 
afternoon. I want to thank Ranking Member Kennedy, our other 
colleagues, and our witnesses, who will be joining us today for 
this hearing.
    Today we are 48 days away from the election. That is just 
48 days until voters decide the direction our country will take 
next year on abortion, housing, and taxes.
    So today's Economic Policy Subcommittee hearing on the 
macroeconomic impact of potential tax reform in 2025 may sound 
a little wonky, but the reality is Congress is going to 
confront huge decisions on tax policy next year.
    Whether we want to rewrite the Tax Code or not, 2025 will 
be a crucial year for setting tax policy because in 2017, 
Donald Trump and congressional Republicans passed a $2 trillion 
tax giveaway to the wealthy and big businesses. The Republican 
tax giveaway was so big that they tried to hide the full cost 
so they set up a bunch of pieces to expire at the end of 2025 
and hoped that a subsequent Congress would just rubberstamp an 
extension without noticing how much money rich people and giant 
corporations would be getting.
    Next year, Congress will answer the questions we are 
discussing today about what the Tax Code should look like. What 
we decide will affect every American and every part of the 
economy and every part of the country over the next few 
decades.
    Whatever you care about, taxes matter. The Tax Code 
determines how much money our Nation has for programs like 
Social Security, Medicare, roads and housing, health care, and 
childcare. And the fine print of the Tax Code shapes our 
economy.
    Will the Tax Code incentivize billionaires to hoard their 
money, corporations to grow into titanic monopolies, and 
multinationals to shift jobs overseas or will it create good 
jobs and new opportunities for small businesses and 
entrepreneurs right here in the United States?
    Taxes reflect our values. They show us what and who we 
value enough to collectively invest in. For decades, 
particularly since the days of Ronald Reagan and his corporate 
friendly advisors, the tax system has reflected the values of 
well-connected billionaires.
    The 2017 Republican tax cuts centered on a $1.3 trillion 
tax cut for giant corporations. In the years since then, 
corporations have raked in record profits, including by price 
gouging consumers, but they have paid less in taxes. In fact, 
over the past half century, giant corporations have begun to 
dominate our economy. Corporate profits, as a share of the 
economy, have doubled since the 1950s. Meanwhile, corporate 
Federal income taxes as a share of GDP have fallen by half.
    Under President Biden and Vice President Harris, things 
have gotten a little better. We raised taxes on billion dollar 
corporations for the first time in 30 years thanks to my 15 
percent corporate minimum tax.
    We funded the IRS, which has since clawed back over a 
billion dollars and counting from wealthy tax cheats. But it 
has been an uphill battle. These improvements to the tax system 
came with the slimmest of majorities and were opposed by every 
single Republican Member of Congress, House and Senate.
    And believe me, billionaires and big corporations have 
fought like hell to beat back bigger reforms. Now next year, 
they will fight even harder. Lobbyists have already started 
calling 2025 the year of Tax Super Bowl.
    These lobbyists are salivating over the hours they can bill 
their corporate clients and the goodies they can win. But it's 
not a game and the outcome is not a foregone conclusion. In 
fact, I see 2025 as a big opportunity to fix our Tax Code.
    So here is the choice that Congress will face and that this 
Subcommittee meets to discuss today. Will we allow Donald Trump 
and the Republicans to implement their Project 2025 plan to cut 
taxes even more for billionaires and giant corporations while 
raising taxes on everyone else or will we move the corporate 
tax rate back up, stitch up the tax loopholes that billionaires 
wiggle through, and then use that revenue to lower costs for 
ordinary Americans from housing to childcare?
    And just as important, will we finally say enough is 
enough? That the rich and the powerful have already fed at the 
trough long enough and that it is time for them to pay a fair 
share?
    Will we have the courage to say that it is better to let 
the Trump tax cuts expire than to sign on to another 
multitrillion dollar giveaway to America's billionaires?
    I appreciate our panelists joining us for this hearing and 
sharing their expertise. We have big questions that will come 
before the Senate and the American public in the coming months. 
And I am pleased to have the chance to start that conversation 
today.
    At this point, I would ordinarily turn to Ranking Member 
Kennedy, who was right behind you. He's voting and then he will 
be here for his opening remarks.
    So how about instead of doing that, we start with our 
witnesses. We have two great witnesses to share their views on 
the impact of tax reform on our economy. And I appreciate both 
of you being here today.
    First we have Ai-jen Poo, who is the President of the 
National Domestic Workers Alliance and the Executive Director 
of Caring Across Generations.
    Ms. Poo is a tireless advocate for caregivers and a 
nationally recognized expert on elder and family care, the 
future of work, gender equality, and grassroots organizing.
    And second, we have Kitty Richards, who is an expert in tax 
and fiscal policy with groundwork collaborative. She also 
served in the Treasury Department during the Biden-Harris 
administration, and as an economic policy advisor in the White 
House to then Vice President Biden.
    So thank you both for being here today, and I look forward 
to hearing your testimony. Ms. Poo, how about if we start with 
you?

 STATEMENT OF AI-JEN POO, PRESIDENT, NATIONAL DOMESTIC WORKERS 
    ALLIANCE; EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, CARING ACROSS GENERATIONS

    Ms. Poo. Thank you, Madam Chair. I am so honored to be here 
to speak with you today and also grateful to Ranking Member 
Kennedy and Members of the Committee for the opportunity to 
testify to the economic impacts of potential tax reform.
    Again, my name is Ai-jen Poo, and I am the President of the 
National Domestic Workers Alliance and Executive Director of 
Caring Across Generations.
    We are part of Care Can't Wait, a national coalition 
working to lower the cost of caring for families and improve 
the quality of work for our Nation's care workforce.
    Every day in America 10,000 babies are born, and 10,000 of 
us turn 65. More of us are living longer, which means the 
number of older adults in America, over the age of 85, is 
expected to more than double by the year 2040. And this is a 
beautiful thing because it means more time to live and to learn 
and to contribute, to watch our children and our grandchildren 
grow. But it also means that we are a Nation in need of more 
care, more than ever before.
    And in America today, only the wealthy can afford it. We 
live in one of the only countries in the world without 
guaranteed paid family medical leave, which means that one in 
four moms returns to work within 2 weeks of giving birth.
    In every State in America, center-based childcare for two 
kids costs more than rent. A room in a nursing home will run 
you $100,000 per year. And then if you want to receive aging 
and disability care in the home, where most people want to 
receive it, it can cost anywhere from $60,000 to $288,000 per 
year. Meanwhile, the median income of a home care worker in 
America is less than $22,000 per year.
    The workers whose profession it is to help care for us 
can't care for their own families on the wages they earn. They 
also happen to be the fastest growing occupation in our entire 
workforce because of the tremendous need.
    Deciding how we spend public dollars, using the Federal Tax 
Code is one of the most powerful tools we have to lower costs 
for everyday middle class families. It reflects what we 
understand to be shared priorities and essential infrastructure 
for a strong economy.
    Just as we must invest in physical infrastructure like 
bridges and tunnels, we need care infrastructure. As Senator 
Bob Casey famously said, some people need a bridge or a tunnel 
to get to work and others need childcare, others need home 
care.
    Without these investments, tens of millions of working 
family caregivers and parents are making impossible choices 
between caring for their loved ones and working to pay the 
bills. Untold numbers of us are pushed into debt and poverty 
while the majority of our 9 million professional care workers 
are trapped in working poverty.
    The 2017 tax law decreased Federal revenue by trillions 
while doing almost nothing to address the fundamental needs of 
working and middle class families.
    Under the law, the wealthiest 1 percent of households can 
expect an average benefit of $60,000 in 2025 while the 
majority, including most family caregivers, disabled people, 
seniors, and parents, will receive less than $500. That is $40 
a month, and care workers will average even less, $70 per year. 
These tax cuts benefited the people with the least need the 
most while the vast majority of us continue to struggle.
    I recently traveled across the country to meet caregivers. 
And in Atlanta, I met Martresa, a sandwich generation caregiver 
caring for her chronically ill mother at home and a young 
daughter at the same time.
    She found a strange spot on her skin, but because she 
couldn't afford care assistance, she prioritized care for her 
family over her own. And the day before I met with her in 
Atlanta she was diagnosed with advanced stage cancer.
    Our tax policy cannot continue to deepen the inequality of 
care in America rather it should help address it, and it can.
    We must raise revenue and make investments in our care 
systems from childcare to paid family and medical leave to 
senior and disability care. I urge you to let the 2017 tax cuts 
for the wealthiest expire and use additional revenue to invest 
in the care we all need.
    2025 is our once in a generation moment to ensure that the 
wealthy pay their fair share so that we can all contribute to a 
strong economy and care for our families, too. I look forward 
to your questions. Thank you.
    Chair Warren. Thank you, Ms. Poo. Ms. Richards.

    STATEMENT OF KITTY RICHARDS, SENIOR FELLOW, GROUNDWORK 
          COLLABORATIVE AND ECONOMIC POLICY THINK TANK

    Ms. Richards. Thank you, Chair Warren and Members of the 
Committee. Thank you for inviting me to testify today. Again, 
my name is Kitty Richards. I am a senior fellow at the 
Groundwork Collaborative and Economic Policy Think Tank based 
here in Washington, DC. And I am grateful to the Committee for 
holding this hearing about the really important macroeconomic 
impacts of tax reform in 2025.
    As you know, next year is going to be a big year for tax 
policymaking as the individual income tax provisions of the 
2017 tax law expire, but I want to talk about more than the 
TCJA and especially more than just its expiring provisions. I 
want to talk about how to support a thriving economy through 
tax reform. And to do that, we really need to do three things.
    First, tax reform must raise substantial new revenue, well 
above the revenue lost to the failed 2017 Tax Act. Before the 
Bush tax cuts and then their extension and then the 2017 law, 
the U.S. had a tax system that was not perfect, but raised 
enough revenue to support a fully functioning Government and 
did it progressively.
    We need revenue to support a 21st century Government that 
can restore a strong, secure middle class, build our clean 
energy future, and ensure that every American can participate 
in the economy and reach their full potential.
    I am honored to be sitting next to Ai-jen Poo, who can 
speak to the importance of investments and care infrastructure 
much more eloquently than I can and just did.
    Second, tax reform must directly redress the skyrocketing 
inequality that has characterized the American economic 
experience over the past 50 years. And we have to pay special 
attention to the persistent racial and gender disparities in 
wages, wealth, and opportunity that not only harm those 
communities, but really hold our economy back.
    This inequality is not just profoundly unfair and damaging 
to the welfare of the large majority of Americans who have been 
left behind, it also has a negative impact on economic growth 
through multiple channels.
    Third, tax reform must rebalance economic power away from 
the wealthy and corporations, putting a break on extractive 
practices at the high end that weaken economic performance 
while enriching shareholders, executives, and highly 
compensated professionals at the expense of everyone else and 
enhancing the economic power and participation of low and 
middle income workers, especially those who currently provide 
the more than $1 trillion in unpaid care work each year that 
allows all other work to happen.
    My written testimony outlines a number of ways that tax 
reform in 2025 can accomplish these goals, and I would like to 
just go through a few of them here.
    Congress should restore the corporate tax to a major source 
of progressive revenue for the U.S. Government and ensure that 
it functions as a break on corporate power and corporate 
profiteering, not an accelerant.
    This can be accomplished by raising the corporate tax rate, 
including raising it back to 35 percent, where it was before 
the 2017 tax law, for the most profitable corporations, closing 
corporate loopholes and eliminating current preferences for 
foreign source income over American source income.
    The U.S. should also move swiftly to implement the once in 
a century agreement among more than 130 countries across the 
world to prevent corporations from forcing a global race to the 
bottom in corporate taxation. Doing so will increase U.S. tax 
revenues and reduce large multinational's ability to syphon 
profits offshore.
    Congress should restore the top tax rates on high incomes 
and address the many special tax giveaways that provide outsize 
benefits to the richest taxpayers, including some introduced in 
the TCJA, like the Section 199A deduction.
    On the other end of the individual tax, Congress should 
restore the enhanced child tax credit from the American Rescue 
Plan, which cut child poverty in half before it was allowed to 
expire and expand on the success of the earned income tax 
credit by making more workers eligible for a larger sum.
    And finally, Congress must reform the way that income from 
wealth is taxed. Taxing wealth like work is more than a 
fairness issue. It is absolutely crucial to ensuring that the 
richest taxpayers pay any tax at all, let alone their fair 
share, and to rebalancing power in the economy.
    Proposals like Senator Wyden's Billionaires Income Tax or 
the Biden-Harris administration's Billionaires Minimum Income 
Tax are a hugely important part of building a tax system that 
works for workers and builds our economy. Thank you.
    Chair Warren. Thank you, Ms. Richards. And now we are going 
to start our questions with the Senator from New Jersey, 
Senator Helmy.
    Senator Helmy. Thank you, Chair. Thank you for the 
opportunity to participate in this hearing. And I know and 
thank you for your long lasting and standing leadership on tax 
policy issues that break apart what I call the consolidation of 
opportunity in this Nation and invest in opportunities that 
lift up low income and growing middle class.
    Thank you both for being here. And Ms. Poo, I'm sorry I 
missed your opening remarks, but I did have a chance to read 
them and will hopefully give you an opportunity to build on 
some of the interesting points I read.
    Ms. Richards, if I can start with you. I would like to 
discuss investments in education. And I would start by saying 
the Pell grant has had a significant impact on low income and 
middle income New Jersians.
    In New Jersey, approximately 35 percent of undergraduate 
students relied on Pell in 2021-22 academic year, as can be 
expected most of those recipients coming from low income 
households.
    Would you mind speaking with some specificity to the return 
on investment we see when we make investments in uplifting low 
income families by investing in educational opportunities for 
them and what that might mean for growing our U.S. economy?
    Ms. Richards. Absolutely. Investing in the human capital of 
future workers, current workers, and innovators in our economy 
is one of the most important things that we can do to increase 
productivity growth, increase wages, and build a really strong, 
resilient economy that can work for, you know, the next 100 
years. And Pell grants are such a great example of how we can 
do that.
    Researchers at the OACD have found that one of the major 
mechanisms by which growing inequality is stifling growth 
across the world, and especially in the United States, is the 
failure of these economies to be able to invest in the bottom 
half of the income distribution and in their human capital.
    And when you give a Pell Grant to someone who otherwise 
wouldn't be able to go to college, you are opening up a world 
of possibility for them and for them to be able to participate 
fully in the economy and become a future leader, a strong 
worker, and also deliver for their family.
    Senator Helmy. I would just note personally, Chair, my 
wife, who emigrated from Egypt when she was 10 and was a 
recipient of Federal dollars to go to her undergraduate at 
Rutgers and my children have more opportunities than we had as 
kids because, as you said Ms. Richards, that opportunity and 
investment in low and middle income families like the ones we 
came from.
    If I can stay with you, Ms. Richard, you mentioned in your 
written testimony the investments in childcare. And according 
to census data over a million of our children in New Jersey 
benefited from the expanded credit in 2021.
    Under the current law, of course, an estimated 19 million 
children under 17 receive less than a full credit or no credit 
at all because the family's incomes are too low. If we were 
able to restore the CTC to the restored amount of the American 
Rescue Plan, how do you see that in also helping the economics, 
broadly again, of the U.S. economy but specifically the 
economics of low and middle income families?
    Ms. Richards. The child tax credit expansion included in 
the COVID recovery package was a phenomenal success. It drove 
child poverty to a record low of 5.2 percent in 2021, which by 
the way it is a shame that we live in the richest country on 
earth, and 5.2 percent of our children living in poverty is a 
record low, but it was incredibly successful.
    If the program had been extended 3 million fewer children 
would have been living in poverty in 2022. It really makes 
clear that hungry children and families trapped in poverty, 
those are policy choices.
    But as you said, it also really stifles our economy. Those 
children, we have reams of evidence to show that getting high 
quality care, having a stable environment with a roof over your 
head where you are not at risk of eviction or homelessness, 
having food in your stomach when you go to school, these are 
huge determinants of your future economic success and the 
economic success of our society.
    And I would also love to add the CTC is so important, but 
investments in childcare have a return on investment as high as 
12 to 1. And, you know, these things, I would love to turn it 
over to my colleague because these things are about more than 
just family economics today.
    Senator Helmy. That is a perfect segue. And they don't 
allow junior senators to go over their time. And this is a 
great segue, Ms. Poo.
    In 2022, a study by researchers at the Joint Committee of 
Taxation on the Federal Reserve Board analyzed the impact of 
the TCJA, the Trump tax bill, in corporate returns, shareholder 
data, and worker earnings. And I quote, ``The earnings do not 
change for workers in the bottom 90 percent of within firm 
distribution.'' But as you would expect that's my ad lib. Back 
to the quote, ``but do increase for workers in the top 10 
percent, increase particularly sharply for firm managers and 
executives.''
    What I would ask if we were able to tick the corporate tax 
rate back up to 28 percent, which is what is being proposed by 
some on this side of the dais, how do you see that being 
impactful to the care economy and, again to the same way I 
phrased the question to Ms. Richards, how would we reinvest 
that in the care economy and what would that mean to uplifting 
low and middle income families, and, again, the broader 
investment in the American economy?
    Ms. Richards. Well, I think we are so--thank you for the 
question, Senator. I think we are so underinvested in low 
income and middle income families in our country that we can't 
do enough at this point to support them.
    I think that the child tax credit is incredibly important 
as a way to offer relief for low income families in particular, 
and we have seen the impact of that. And I think investments in 
the care infrastructure are long overdue and essential.
    And there is an economist at Harvard named Larry Katz who 
calls investments in the care economy triple dignity 
investments because if you think about our ability to 
investment in say the childcare workforce and making those 
poverty wage jobs better jobs, those wage increases not only 
benefit those workers and their families and communities, but 
then they enable through the services they provide to support 
millions of other working families and caregivers and working 
parents to go to work and participate in the economy. And then 
they support the next generation of children to be able to have 
access to quality care at these crucial years of their lifetime 
and older adults, people with disabilities, having the ability 
to live dignified full lives as they age.
    This kind of return on investment is exponential. And these 
investments are long overdue.
    Senator Helmy. I appreciate both of you being here. I 
appreciate your qualitative analysis and your written testimony 
on the unpaid and uncredited work that comes out of the care 
economy. And I turn it back to the Chair with tremendous 
gratitude for her leadership on these issues.
    Chair Warren. Well, thank you very much. Thank you for 
those very thoughtful questions.
    So let's talk more about the tax bill that passed in 2017. 
Donald Trump signed into law in 2017 his only big legislative 
accomplishment, a $2 trillion tax giveaway for the wealthy and 
the well-connected. And now he is out there promising to shovel 
even more tax breaks to, these are his words, his rich as hell 
donors. But the American people want to move forward, not 
backward. Eighty percent of voters want to raise taxes on the 
rich and Democrats have a proposal to do exactly that.
    Those higher taxes on the rich would give our Nation 
revenue, money to build 3 million new homes and lower rents by 
10 percent. Money to cut the cost of childcare to just $10 a 
day for most families. Money to build a better future for 
everyone.
    So let's talk about the 2017 tax law and the choice that 
the next President and the next Congress will face as a big 
chunk of it starts to expire.
    Ms. Poo, you worked on behalf of the 2\1/2\ million 
nannies, house cleaners, and homecare workers who keep American 
families going, keep them in the workplace. What was the impact 
of the 2017 Trump tax cuts on the domestic workers that you 
represent? How big a slice of that $2 trillion did they get?
    Ms. Poo. Madam Chair, the short answer is next to nothing. 
If the Trump era tax cuts were allowed to continue, the average 
care worker, like our members, would receive $70 per year in 
benefit, which is in contrast to the richest 1 percent, who 
would receive $60,000 per year.
    And by the way, a majority of American workers in this 
country earn less than $60,000 per year. So talk about 
exacerbating what is already brutal in equality in our economy 
and feeding the epidemic of low wage work that we have to 
address. We cannot allow for our tax policy to leave essential 
workers like care workers and other low wage workers behind.
    Chair Warren. All right. So that is the calculation based 
on what we have seen. But Donald Trump is doubling down. He is 
proposing $7 trillion in further tax cuts, including slashing 
the corporate rate down to just 15 percent.
    That is not all. In their Project 2025 playbook, 
Republicans in Washington have laid out a scheme to further 
shift the tax burden from the wealthy to the middle class and 
working class in order to fund $1.5 to $2.4 million tax cut for 
households making more than $10 million a year, the Republicans 
have laid out their project 2025 plan to raise taxes by an 
average of $3,000 for the median family of four.
    Now, Ms. Richards, you are a former White House and 
Treasury Department official. You are an expert in tax and 
economic policy. So tell us what impact would these proposals 
that Donald Trump and Project 2025 have already put on the 
table, what impact would these proposals have overall on our 
economy?
    Ms. Richards. The impact would be higher inflation, higher 
interest rates, weaker economic growth, and recession becomes a 
serious threat again.
    Those are direct quotes from an analysis put out last month 
by Moody's analytics after reviewing GOP plans to extend the 
expiring 2017 provisions throughout the individuals, further 
cut the corporate tax rate, and impose tariffs that would drive 
up costs for low and middle income families.
    But as you noted in your remarks, many of former President 
Trump's closest allies are envisioning an even more extreme tax 
agenda.
    Project 2025 would get rid of our current progressive 
income tax system along with nearly all of the deductions and 
credits that lower taxes for low and middle income families and 
significantly increase the income tax rate that those families 
pay. Then those savings would get funneled into cutting taxes 
for the wealthiest households at the very top.
    Experts ran the numbers recently and found that this would 
increase taxes by $3,000 for the typical family of four while 
giving between $1.5 and $2.4 million in annual tax cuts for 
those wealthiest households with more than $10 million.
    Chair Warren. So we are really talking about an income 
redistribution scheme here, right, from the wealthiest 10,000 
families in America that they get an average of how much more?
    Ms. Richards. $1.5 to $2.4 million. It's hard to nail down.
    Chair Warren. Per family?
    Ms. Richards. Per family.
    Chair Warren. For the wealthiest 10,000 and for middle 
class, working class America, they lay out how much more?
    Ms. Richards. $3,000 for the typical family of four.
    Chair Warren. So this is amazing. You know, I listen to the 
Republicans rail about wealth redistribution. Let's face it, 
wealth redistribution is happening. And what Donald Trump wants 
to see, along with his Republican friends, is let's 
redistribute even more wealth from the tiny fraction of the 
very richest Americans and let's make working families, let's 
make middle class families, pay more.
    So this is going to be--did I say that as wealth leaves 
them, it's more wealth for middle class America up to the 
richest among us?
    You know, and as you rightly say, this is what the 
economists at Moody's are telling us, they have already taken a 
look at this. You can exactly track. And Project 2025 has 
actually laid out the numbers. We don't even have to sit here 
and do the math ourselves. They are so extremist that they 
think they can tell America what they plan to do. And that 
somehow the United States is still going to go along with it, 
the voters are going to go along with it.
    I do understand why Donald Trump is trying to back off from 
Project 2025. But these are his advisors. This is his 
Republican party who is advancing this. And we are heading into 
a big tax fight in which the Republicans are proposing to take 
wealth away from working families and give more wealth to rich 
families and to do it all through the tax cut.
    So look, it is pretty outrageous. It is better to walk away 
and let the Trump tax cuts expire than to sign our names to 
that kind of a wealth transfer to help multimillionaires and 
billionaires at the expense of working families.
    But that doesn't have to be where our 2025 tax fight ends. 
I believe we can do better than that. We can raise taxes on the 
rich. We can invest in lowering costs for American families. 
And that is exactly what Vice President Harris has proposed. 
Raising revenue by taking the corporate tax rate--she is just 
saying take it back up to 28 percent and impose a 25 percent 
minimum tax on these megamillionaires and billionaires and use 
that money to help families with the cost of housing and 
childcare.
    Now Ms. Richards, let's do the comparison here. We talked 
about Donald Trump's plan is to take money away from middle 
class and working families and give it to the very wealthy. 
Vice President Harris' plan is take some of this money away 
from wealthy and give it back to middle class and working 
families in the form of providing the infrastructure for 
childcare and housing and reduce those costs.
    So can you describe overall what impact Vice President 
Harris' proposals would have on our economy?
    Ms. Richards. Sure. I think it is worth coming back to the 
same Moody's analysis that I had spoke of earlier. Their 
economists conclude that enacting Vice President Harris' policy 
would lead to strong economic growth and lower----
    Chair Warren. Strong growth.
    Ms. Richards. ----lower inflation, full employment, and 
critically Harris' policies would boost the finances of lower 
and middle income Americans. Again, direct quotes. For the 
record, Moody's also concludes that debt as a share of GDP 
would be far better under Vice President Harris' proposals 
because of how costly the GOP tax cuts are and because of the 
revenue raising proposals you just mentioned. And you can also 
think of that as an indication of how much more we could have 
to invest in care economy and the workers that really power 
economic growth in this country.
    Chair Warren. So very interesting point because you are 
really saying the effect overall on the economy of the Trump 
tax cuts would be a disaster, like higher inflation, lower GDP 
growth, lower job growth, but as a side benefit. The other 
consequence of this would be to drive up the deficit and that 
we see exactly the inverse in the way that Vice President 
Harris wants to do this by saying higher taxes on those at the 
top and more investment in bringing down costs for those in the 
middle.
    You know the next President and Congress will face huge 
decisions on tax policy. Donald Trump wants to make an America 
that works even better for those at the top. Kamala Harris and 
congressional Democrats want to tax the rich so that we can 
build a stronger, fairer America. An America where Jeff Bezos 
doesn't pay a lower tax rate than a public school teacher. That 
is the America we are working for, an America where everyone 
can get ahead, where childcare costs and health care bills are 
not crushing families, an America where every family can afford 
a home.
    That is an America worth fighting for and that is the 
battle we will be in in 2025.
    With that, I will call on the Senator from Maryland, 
Senator Van Hollen for his questions.
    Senator Van Hollen. Well, thank you, Senator Warren. And as 
I said before the hearing, I had another briefing that I was at 
so I am glad to make it. Thank you for pulling this great panel 
together.
    I thank both of you for being here. and I know Senator 
Warren and others have laid out some of the Vice President's 
plans, which would be to really invest in the middle class and 
those working to become part of the middle class.
    So I think as we listen to our Republican colleagues and we 
get a preview of what Republican claims are about what their 
tax policies would do, it is important to go back and rewind 
the tape a little bit and see what claims were made about the 
last round of Trump tax cuts which were really, as we all know, 
for the very wealthy. But I think having two experts here, we 
can dissect some of the claims they made and whether they ever 
really came true.
    As we know, the Trump tax cuts took the corporate rate from 
35 percent to 21 percent. We now raise about 1.8 percent of our 
GDP from big corporations and others, which is a very small 
amount given the magnitude of those profits.
    And now Republicans are planning to cut the corporate tax 
even further, 18 percent says former President Trump--I'm 
sorry, Project 2025. President Trump is saying in some 
categories maybe even go to 15 percent.
    So in 2017, we were told that these big corporate tax cuts 
would cause such massive economic growth that they would pay 
for themselves. So let me just start with a straightforward 
question, did they pay for themselves?
    Ms. Richards. No. That was laughable at the time, and it 
has not worn well.
    Senator Van Hollen. Ms. Poo.
    Ms. Poo. Agree.
    Senator Van Hollen. So one of the other things they claimed 
was that those cuts were going to generate a big new wave of 
investments, right? That corporations would take their tax 
savings and invest them into growing their businesses. So Ms. 
Richards, did business investment shoot up in the 2 years 
following the tax cuts when corporations first felt the effect 
of those cuts and before COVID may have distorted the data?
    Ms. Richards. Nope.
    Senator Van Hollen. Right? It is again just no ambiguity 
here. It just didn't happen. And in fact, what we saw was that 
corporations spent $806 billion in stock buybacks in 2018, 
paying off wealthy investors instead of growing their 
businesses.
    Another claim that was made was that corporations would use 
some of that tax savings to increase the wages they paid to 
their employees. In fact, Kevin Hassett, who was the head of 
Trump's Council of Economic Advisors, said there would be, and 
I quote, ``an immediate jump in wage growth''. And the former 
President predicted an average wage increase of $4,000 tied 
directly to those tax cuts.
    So, Ms. Richards, did the average American get a $4,000 
raise from the Trump tax cuts?
    Ms. Richards. No. In fact median wage growth actually 
slowed in 2018 and 2019 after the Trump tax cuts were enacted.
    Senator Van Hollen. Right. And, you know, the only people 
who saw raises were the very wealthy executives, who got about 
$50,000 on average boost in their income.
    So, Ms. Poo, did the people who were caring for our 
children and aging members of our communities get a $50,000 
raise?
    Ms. Poo. No, Senator. The median annual income for a 
homecare worker is $22,000 per year in the United States.
    Senator Van Hollen. And when those companies were making 
billions of dollars and more profits and using a lot of their 
profits for stock buybacks, did they at least lower prices for 
consumers?
    Ms. Poo. No, Senator. Prices have gone up.
    Senator Van Hollen. So prices went up. Wages did not go up. 
Stock buybacks and executive compensation went up. The deficit 
went up, and these guys want to run that movie again.
    So I appreciate both of you being here just to refresh our 
memories a little bit beyond the sloganeering as to what 
actually happened in the real world. Thank you.
    Chair Warren. Thank you very much, Senator Van Hollen. I 
always appreciate your questions. But on this one just walking 
through what were the promises made in 2017 and what did the 
data show because that same set of promises will be made in 
2025 as we go through these tax fights. And what's the old, 
burn me once, shame on you, burn me twice, shame on me. We are 
not falling for that again. So thank you. I really appreciate 
the questions.
    If you will bear with me, I have got another round of 
questions I would like to be able to ask.
    You know, for too long, Republicans have raced to cut taxes 
for the wealthy and then they turn around and slash funding for 
critical programs that many Americans rely on.
    The tax fight next year will determine how much money we 
have to help lower costs for families by making the investments 
in childcare and housing and whether millionaires and 
billionaires chip in like everyone else. So let's focus for a 
minute on childcare.
    While other Nations have invested in universal affordable 
high quality care for their children, we have stayed stuck in a 
debate over how much to cut taxes. The result, the United 
States now ranks 31st out of 38 developed countries in terms of 
tax revenue as a share of GDP and 33rd out of 37 of the richest 
Nations for their spending on childcare.
    Childcare, as you noted in your testimony, is more 
expensive than rent for the average family in America. And I 
just want to add a footnote to that, if they can find it at 
all.
    Ms. Poo. Correct.
    Senator Van Hollen. Because part of what never goes into 
that calculation are all the people who just give up, all the 
people who can't find it at all or who are using under the 
table ways of having their children taken care of that never 
show up in these statistics.
    So, Ms. Poo, why is it so difficult for families to find 
affordable, high quality childcare? Why doesn't this market 
work? Why don't we just put a little more money into people's 
hands and suddenly we will have a functioning childcare market?
    Ms. Poo. The system is broken because we have never 
invested in building it. We don't have a functioning childcare 
system in the United States.
    Right now, there are fixed costs associated with delivering 
safe, quality childcare. And childcare currently relies on a 
patchwork system of Federal and State dollars that is anemic 
and inconsistent at best.
    And in that context, the cost gets passed on to individual 
families who are struggling and also the care workforce. So you 
have families paying enormous amounts, up to 30 percent of 
their income, and workers earning poverty wages to stay in this 
work, to keep the doors open of these facilities.
    And it is unsustainable for everyone involved. The average 
childcare worker earns less than $30,000 per year.
    Chair Warren. You know, you caught me with the line, why is 
the childcare system broken? Because we never built it. I am 
reminded as you say this that I nearly got derailed from the 
lack of available, affordable childcare not once, but twice. 
Just almost got knocked completely off and was saved because I 
had an elderly Aunt B who came to live with me for 16 years in 
order to see me through all of my childcare needs for all those 
years.
    What is so frustrating to me is it was hard for me when 
there were fewer women in the workforce when we kind of felt 
like the first wave of mamas going into the workforce.
    It was just as hard for my daughter. And now it appears 
that it is going to be just as hard for my granddaughters 
because we continue not to make this investment. The idea that 
a family can take out of its own income to pay for an entire 
childcare infrastructure is just nuts. We don't ask families to 
go pay for all the costs of second grade.
    We say that we all pitch in so that we can afford to build 
an education system, K through 12, and make that available for 
all of our kids, but we are not doing it on childcare and 
families, babies, and childcare workers are the ones who are 
paying the price for this.
    But it takes money to make the system work, and look at the 
billionaires right now. They are just not paying taxes. Elon 
Musk and Jeff Bezos want to keep sitting on their growing piles 
of wealth protected by armies of lawyers and accountants and 
wealth managers and lobbyists who ensure that the money they 
make doesn't count as taxable income.
    Ms. Poo, tell me, is that option of just deciding not to 
pay taxes and build your wealth out and to live on it knowing 
you will be protected by an army of accountants and lawyers and 
lobbyists available for our childcare workers? Are they doing 
the same thing there?
    Ms. Poo. No, Madam Senator. If they were, I would not be 
here testifying today.
    Chair Warren. You know, is it available to middle class 
families? You know, people who have got two folks in the 
workforce. They are earning median wages. Is it available to 
them?
    Ms. Poo. It is not.
    Chair Warren. You know, this is the part we have to 
remember, the extraordinary inequality not just an outcome, but 
inequality in opportunity to build something in this country.
    The top 1 percent in this country just hit a record $44.6 
trillion in wealth. That is almost as much as the bottom 90 
percent of Americans have scraped together. But that top 1 
percent is barely paying taxes.
    And every year that goes by with the wealthiest Americans 
paying so little is another year in which their grip over our 
economy grows stronger while everyone else struggles to get by.
    Donald Trump and congressional Republicans understand this 
dynamic. And instead of working to reverse it, they are 
tripping over themselves to promise their wealthy donors even 
more tax giveaways next year.
    But President Biden and Vice President Harris have a much 
better idea. They have a plan to ensure that anyone who has 
more than $100 million in assets--and just so you know, this is 
the top 10,000 richest, megamillionaires and billionaires that 
they pay at least 25 percent of all the income they make in 
taxes. That is still far less than the top individual tax rate. 
But for the first time, it would force the 10,000 richest 
Americans in America to stop hoarding their wealth and hiding 
it from the IRS. Now, Ms. Richards, if we pass the Biden-Harris 
Billionaires Minimum Income Tax affecting just the top one-
tenth of 1 percent of all Americans and then invest that money 
in affordable childcare for all Americans, what kind of return 
on our investment would we get?
    Ms. Richards. Investments in childcare have undeniable 
payoffs. The return on investment can be as high as 12 to 1. 
Meanwhile, billionaires sitting on stock for years and years 
for tax purposes is actually bad for the economy. It makes it 
less dynamic. It makes us less able to grow and innovate.
    So the return on investment would be huge.
    Chair Warren. So I think this is really an important point 
to make. You know, you could be somebody who just doesn't care 
about kids. Doesn't care about care. But just making a 
hardnosed investment decision, investing in billionaires, which 
is what a system does when it says you can sit on those piles 
of wealth and not pay taxes on them. Doing that has the effect 
of actually making the economy work less vigorously.
    They hold on even when they should sell. They don't make 
good investment decisions day-to-day. They make tax driven 
decisions because we have privileged one form of wealth and 
holding on to that wealth.
    The difference, of course, is if we tax that wealth and 
particularly decided to invest it in a care economy, I think 
you described it as the consequence would be more mamas and 
daddies can go to work, right, and be able to work more 
productively. More care workers would be paid a wage that lets 
them support themselves, their families and their economies, 
and the third generation--the next generation payoff, and more 
children would get a better start in life. And this is the 
reason to say pay taxes here so we can make this investment 
there is a payoff of about 12 to 1.
    It makes no sense to pass that up. And that is what is 
going to be in front of us in this tax fight in 2025. Taxing 
the ultrawealthy is good for the economy. It is fair. And it is 
popular. Four out of five Americans support raising taxes on 
the richest Americans, Democrats, Republicans, and 
independents. And next year Congress needs to listen to them, 
not to the billionaires that are trying to fund political 
campaigns right now.
    2025 is an opportunity to reshape the Tax Code. And we need 
to do more than just be on defense about the Trump tax 
extensions for the billionaires. We need to be on offense by 
looking at the whole tax system and saying we can make better 
investments with our Federal dollars.
    So thank you all for being here. I really appreciate this.
    You know, thanks to decades of lobbying, the U.S. Tax Code 
is stuck in a doom loop. It is rigged to benefit the richest 
corporations and the richest people instead of designed to help 
working families. We have a chance to change that in 2025 and a 
chance to fight for a Tax Code that reflects our values. That 
means investing in middle class and working people. It means 
making billionaires and big businesses pay their fair share. 
And it means rejecting bad deals that throw pennies to ordinary 
Americans while showering the ultrawealthy with even more tax 
giveaways.
    Thank you to both of our witnesses for being here today and 
for providing this testimony. For Senators who wish to submit 
questions for the record, those questions are due 1 week from 
today. That is Wednesday, September 25.
    For our witnesses, you will then have 45 days to respond to 
any question.
    Thank you again. Thank you for being here. And with that, 
this hearing is adjourned.
    [Whereupon, at 3:15 p.m., the hearing was adjourned.]
    [Prepared statements supplied for the record follow:]
                    PREPARED STATEMENT OF AI-JEN POO
  President, National Domestic Workers Alliance; Executive Director, 
                       Caring Across Generations
                           September 18, 2024
[GRAPHICS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]

                  PREPARED STATEMENT OF KITTY RICHARDS
 Senior Fellow, Groundwork Collaborative and Economic Policy Think Tank
                           September 18, 2024
[GRAPHICS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]

                              [all]