[Joint House and Senate Hearing, 118 Congress]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]
SUPPORTING ARMENIA'S DEMOCRATIC AND
WESTERN FUTURE
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HEARING
BEFORE THE
COMMISSION ON SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE
U.S. HELSINKI COMMISSION
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
ONE HUNDRED EIGHTEENTH CONGRESS
SECOND SESSION
__________
SEPTEMBER 10, 2024
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Printed for the use of the Commission on Security and Cooperation in
Europe
[CSCE118-8]
[GRAPHIC NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]
Available via www.csce.gov
__________
U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE
56-696 WASHINGTON : 2024
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COMMISSION ON SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE
U.S. HELSINKI COMMISSION
U.S. HOUSE U.S SENATE
JOE WILSON, South Carolina Chairman BENJAMIN L. CARDIN, Maryland Co-
Chairman
STEVE COHEN, Tennessee Ranking ROGER F. WICKER, Mississippi
Member Ranking Member
ROBERT B. ADERHOLT, Alabama RICHARD BLUMENTHAL, Connecticut
EMANUEL CLEAVER II, Missouri JOHN BOOZMAN, Arkansas
RUBEN GALLEGO, Arizona TIM SCOTT, South Carolina
RICHARD HUDSON, North Carolina JEANNE SHAHEEN, New Hampshire
MICHAEL LAWLER, New York TINA SMITH, Minnesota
VICTORIA SPARTZ, Indiana THOM TILLIS, North Carolina
MARC A. VEASEY, Texas SHELDON WHITEHOUSE, Rhode Island
EXECUTIVE BRANCH
Department of State - Erin Barclay
Department of Defense - Celeste Wallander
Department of Commerce - Don Graves
C O N T E N T S
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Page
COMMISSIONERS
Hon. Joe Wilson, Chairman, from South Carolina................... 1
Hon. Ben Cardin, Co-Chairman, from Maryland...................... 3
Hon. Roger Wicker, Ranking Member, from Mississippi.............. 5
Hon. Steve Cohen, Ranking Member, from Tennessee................. 5
Hon. Marc Veasey, from Texas..................................... 15
Hon. Andy Harris, from Maryland.................................. 17
Hon. Emanuel Cleaver II, from Missouri........................... 19
Hon. Victoria Spartz, from Indiana............................... 20
WITNESSES
Dan Baer, Senior Vice President for Policy Research, Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace and Former U.S. Ambassador to
the OSCE....................................................... 7
Olesya Vartanyan, South Caucasus Security Expert................. 8
Tigran Grigoryan, President and Founder, Regional Center for
Democracy and Security, Yerevan, Armenia....................... 10
SUPPORTING ARMENIA'S DEMOCRATIC AND WESTERN FUTURE
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COMMISSION ON SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN
EUROPE,
U.S. HELSINKI COMMISSION,
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES,
Tuesday, September 10, 2024.
The hearing was held from 2:30 p.m. to 3:40 p.m., Room 419,
Dirksen Senate Office Building, Representative Joe Wilson [R-
SC], Chairman, Commission for Security and Cooperation in
Europe, presiding.
Committee Members Present: Representative Joe Wilson [R-
SC], Chairman; Senator Ben Cardin [D-MD], Co-Chairman; Senator
Roger Wicker [R-MS], Ranking Member; Representative Steve Cohen
[D-TN], Ranking Member; Representative Marc Veasey [D-TX];
Representative Andy Harris [R-MD]; Representative Emanuel
Cleaver II, [D-MO]; Representative Victoria Spartz [R-IN];
Senator Jeanne Shaheen [D-NH]; Senator Richard Blumenthal [D-
CT].
Witnesses: Dan Baer, Senior Vice President for Policy
Research, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Former
U.S. Ambassador to the OSCE; Olesya Vartanyan, South Caucasus
Security Expert; Tigran Grigoryan, President and Founder,
Regional Center for Democracy and Security, Yerevan, Armenia.
OPENING STATEMENT OF JOE WILSON, CHAIRMAN, U.S. HOUSE, FROM
SOUTH CAROLINA
Chairman Wilson: I am grateful for our colleagues to be
here on this important hearing on Armenia, a country that
stands at a critical crossroads. The United States has a unique
and crucial role to play in supporting the Armenian future, a
future rooted in peace, democracy, and a stable region free
from the malign influence of those who seek to destabilize it.
I have been so impressed by the people of Armenia with my
second and third visits to Yerevan this year. Armenia is facing
immense challenges, both internal and external. The recent
history of this proud nation is one of struggle and resilience.
The Armenian people, whose ancestors have weathered centuries
of adversity, have never wavered in their pursuit of freedom
and self-determination. Today they face new challenges,
challenges that arise from regional tensions, economic
instability, and the corrosive effect of Putinesque influence,
which has long sought to perpetuate division and conflict in
the South Caucasus.
Despite these challenges, during the recent CODEL to the
country I was struck by the remarkable resilience of the
Armenian people. There is a strong and growing societal
consensus in Armenia, a desire to turn westward, to fully
embrace democratic values, and to build a future of alignment
with the free world. This consensus is driven by the clear
recognition that Armenian true potential can only be realized
through greater integration with the West--through deepening
ties with Europe, the United States, and regional allies who
share a vision of stability and prosperity.
Armenia has made brave steps to assert its independence and
distance itself from the grip of the war criminal Putin's
influence. These decisions have not been easy, especially in a
region where war criminal Putin's influence is ever present.
Moscow has repeatedly demonstrated that it prefers to see
Armenia and its neighbors mired in conflict, a strategy
designed to maintain its dominance. War criminal Putin's
actions, including its meddling in the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict and its efforts to exploit divisions in the region,
are aimed at preventing Armenia and the South Caucasus from
moving toward lasting peace and prosperity as Putin seeks to
recreate the failed Soviet Empire, which oppresses Russians as
it benefits oligarchs.
The Armenian people want something different. They want
peace. They want democracy. They want to build a future that is
free from outside interference, a future that can thrive as a
sovereign nation in a stable and secure region. This is where
the United States has a crucial role to play. We must be there
to support Armenia on its journey toward democracy, to help
foster the economic and political conditions that will allow
Armenia to stand tall as a full partner in the free world and
not a puppet of Soviet dictatorships.
As chairman of the Turkiye Caucus, normalization of ties
between Armenia and--is essential to this vision and mutual
benefit to both countries. I am the Co-Chair of the Turkiye
Caucus and have been for years, and I just so appreciate
Turkiye as a member of NATO and a great ally for freedom and
democracy in the world. The time has come for Turkiye to
respond in kind to Armenia's call for dialogue and
normalization.
It is also imperative that Azerbaijan join in the effort to
build lasting peace in the region. The war between Armenia and
Azerbaijan has taken a toll on both nations, but we believe
that peace is not only possible; it is essential. Stability for
Azerbaijan is so beneficial, with economic ties to Europe which
Putin opposes. I was grateful this weekend to be with President
Ilham Aliyev as he spoke to the Forum di Cernobbio, which I
attended with Senator Lindsey Graham and Co-Chairman--chairman
of the Foreign Affairs Committee--Ben Cardin.
For Armenia to have a peaceful and prosperous future, for
Azerbaijan to thrive, and for the entire South Caucasus to move
forward, both Turkiye and Azerbaijan should take meaningful
steps toward reconciliation with Armenia. The United States
stands ready to assist in this process, but our support alone
is not enough. It will require the concerted efforts of all
stakeholders in the region.
The future of Armenia, and indeed the entire region,
depends on what happens in the next few months and years. If
the region remains locked in a cycle of conflict and division,
we will see more suffering, more instability, and more
opportunities for malign actors like Putin to exploit these
divisions. However, if we seize this moment--if we push for
peace, normalization, and greater democratic governance--we can
unlock a future of unprecedented peace and prosperity for the
South Caucasus.
There is clear bipartisan support for the United States to
step up its support for Armenia's assistance, both economic and
political. We will help solidify Armenian democratic gains,
strengthen its institutions, and provide a bulwark against
external threats. At the same time, we must encourage other
partners in the region, especially Turkiye and Azerbaijan, to
recognize their long-term interests are best served by a
peaceful and prosperous South Caucasus, one where borders are
secure, economies are thriving, and democracy is flourishing.
Additionally, I want to emphasize the importance of
cultural and people-to-people exchanges. The Armenian diaspora
in the United States has been a powerful force in strengthening
ties between our two nations. By fostering these relationships
and building up shared values, we can create a deeper and more
lasting partnership. Armenian Americans have contributed
immensely to our country, and their success is a testament to
the potential of Armenia itself, as also has been achieved by
Turkish Americans for decades.
In closing, it is critical Armenia have the--has made great
strides in pulling away from the shadow of Putin's influence
and toward a brighter future. The courage of the Armenian
people deserves our admiration and our support. It is incumbent
upon us as members of Congress and as leaders of the free world
to stand with Armenia at this critical moment. The future of
Armenia is bright, but only if we work together to ensure
peace, democracy, and prosperity take root and flourish. Thank
you, and I look forward to our testimony today.
Now I am happy to recognize Senator Ben Cardin as the
immediate past Co-Chair.
STATEMENT OF BENJAMIN CARDIN, CO-CHAIRMAN, U.S. SENATE, FROM
MARYLAND
Senator Cardin: The immediate chair, the current Co-Chair,
but it is good. It is all good.
Let me welcome our witnesses here today. This hearing is
one that we really were anxious to get on our calendar after
our visit to Armenia. Senator Wicker, Congressman Wilson,
myself, others were impressed by how Armenia has changed in a
relatively short period of time, and how they are struggling
with the challenges of their region, and how the United States
can play a more important role in not only helping Armenia on a
path towards a democratic state with its own relations closer
to the West but how it affects the region generally. Therefore,
we are very pleased that we have such a distinguished group of
witnesses.
There is no question that the Armenian diaspora has a very
close relationship with Armenia, and we hear about that
frequently. Therefore, there is some natural ties in this
country that would have us focus on the issues of Armenia.
It is a country that wants to determine its own future.
That is what it wants to do. It is difficult because they have
external factors that make that a challenge for them to be able
to do that. They thirst for democracy and good governance and
after so much domination under the Soviet Union and now Russia,
that has been a real challenge as to how they can reach that
plateau.
It is important that we acknowledge not only these
immediate threats, but also broader geographical currents at
play and the role the United States can play in helping to
secure an independent, democratic, and prosperous future for
the Armenians and the region. First, I want to address the
direct security threat posed by Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan recently came in and took over the Nagorno-
Karabakh area and did ethnic cleansing, requiring the people to
leave or face death or imprisonment. This battle has been going
on for a long time. This is nothing new. However, they not only
decided to displace a whole ethnic group, putting at risk the
cultural facilities, and the cultural history of the region;
they decided to go into Azerbaijan [sic; Armenia] and take part
of Azerbaijan [sic; Armenia] with no indication that they are
going to give up that territory. Now, that territory is very
strategic. We had a chance to see it. It is the highlands. One
can only believe that there is a reasonable risk that
Azerbaijan is not going to stop where they are right now and
that they are going to make further incursions for the corridor
to reconnect the two parts of their country. That would either
divide or eliminate a good part of Azerbaijan's [sic;
Armenia's] sovereignty by force.
Azerbaijan [sic; Armenia] has relied upon Russia for its
defense, basically, certainly for its border security, and what
did Russia do? They told Azerbaijan, come on in, take it over.
Russia is still present in Armenia. How do you--are able to
have security for your country if the person who enabled-- the
country that enabled your adversary to take over part of your
country is who you depend upon for security? I know they are
trying to get some of the Russians' presence out of there, but
it is pretty intrusive into their country right now. How does
that happen?
Then you look at the neighborhood. They are in a tough
neighborhood.
They have Russia. We have already talked about how Russia
is not reliable for Armenia. They have Azerbaijan.
We already talked about Azerbaijan's desire to not only
cleanse Nagorno-Karabakh but to take over perhaps the whole
corridor or southern part of Armenia.
Then they have Iran as a neighbor. Iran's not a reliable
partner. They do some commerce with Iran. We saw oil trucks. We
saw a lot of activity by Iranian trucks when we were there, but
that is not a reliable partner to have. We all know that.
Then there is Turkey, which we are always hoping that
Armenia and Turkey would normalize their relations. The border
is closed right now. The border is close to Azerbaijan. The
border is closed to Turkey. There are limited crossings to
Russia and Iran. Therefore, we need to be engaged so that
Armenia can defend itself and make its own decisions. That
means getting Russia out of Armenia. It also means normalizing
the relationship between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and
particularly Armenia and Turkey, which is absolutely essential
to do, so that there are other avenues available for commerce.
The country is being strangled right now. Would you invest in
this country in a manufacturing business if you depended upon
international commerce? You do not even know if you have any
borders that you can--that you can open up to transport your
goods. We have to free Armenia so that it can control its own
future, and that means we have to figure out ways to move
forward with the peace process with Azerbaijan and for more
normal relations with Turkey. Who is stopping that? Russia.
Therefore, we welcome our panelists today on how the United
States can play an important role in Armenia so it can
determine its own future, it can develop as a democratic state,
one that has good governance and respects the rights of its
citizens and can be a leading partner in security in the
region. I look forward to our witnesses.
Chairman Wilson: Thank you very much, Chairman Ben Cardin.
We now proceed to Congressman--or excuse me, U.S. Senator
Roger Wicker of Mississippi.
STATEMENT OF ROGER WICKER, U.S. SENATE, FROM MISSISSIPPI
Senator Wicker: Thank you. I do agree we should get on with
the witnesses if we possibly can. I walked in in the middle of
the distinguished chairman's remarks, and then I was able to
hear all of Mr. Cardin's opening statement. Let me just say
that I subscribe to their comments completely and
enthusiastically. Yes, there is a lot to be learned from
actually visiting a country on the ground and seeing how narrow
that slip of land is between Azerbaijan and the Nagorno-
Karabakh area, as well as Turkiye.
I do want to congratulate our friends in Armenia for
looking to the West and looking toward the democratic countries
of this world for leadership and friendship. We wish our very
best to the entire region, our NATO allies in Turkiye, and our
friends in Azerbaijan also. However, having been to Armenia and
having gotten a real sense of their desire for Western values
for self-determination, to democracy, I can only say that I
look forward to increasing our friendship.
If there is a record, Mr. Chairman, I have an opening
statement that I will submit. However, I want to thank both of
the gentlemen who have--who I have heard for their outstanding
opening statements. Thank you, sir.
Chairman Wilson: Thank you very much, Senator. Senator
Wicker, your CODEL was just so important to all of us to have
the opportunity to meet with the people of Armenia.
As a continuation of the bipartisanship here today, I would
like to recognize the Co-Chair, Steve Cohen of Tennessee.
Representative Cohen: Thank you, Mr. Chair.
STATEMENT OF STEVE COHEN, U.S. HOUSE, FROM TENNESSEE
Firstly, when I came in, I heard Mr. Wilson talking about
his being a Co-Chair of the Turkey Caucus, and he is. I am the
other Co-Chair. [Laughter.] I have been that Co-Chair for the
18 years I have been in Congress, and all of my friends from
Armenia know it, and they have expressed feelings about it for
18 years. My position had been that Turkey was a good ally of
the United States, a friend of Israel, and an important NATO
member, and while it looked like they had committed a
genocide--and that is a serious thing, and I had difficulty
with it--I supported Turkey because they were very, very, very
insistent that they had different issues about Congress should
not be a historian and Congress should not be a judge, et
cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
However, over these 18 years, I have come to not like
Turkey so much. I will not call it by any other name than
Turkey, because when it was Turkey, it was the land of Ataturk,
and they tried to do some things that were good and bringing
them into the 21st century, and it was a great--Ataturk's one
of the great people of the 21st--the 20th century. We have
written as a group to Turkish officials about their situation
with Israel, where they have supported Hamas, and Hamas is a
terrorist organization. If they think the [PKK] Kurdistan
Workers' Party is a terrorist organization, they have not seen
anything like Hamas. However, they want everybody to be against
the PKK and the [YPG] The People's Defense Units and the
yippie-ki-yay, and yippie-ki-yay is what I say to them these
days.
Erdogan went to Cairo, met with al-Sisi, and said the
Muslim countries needed to come together in unity to smother
and defeat Israel. That is not what Turkey used to be. It is
not what we think of as being the Turkey that we knew when we
became Co-Chairs. They are no longer necessarily our friends.
They are not that trustworthy. They deal with the Russians.
They deal with us. They deal with the Chinese. They deal with
somebody. Be careful, Armenia, when you deal with Turkey. What
my colleagues have said about Armenia and Azerbaijan being
friends with Turkey, be careful.
I yield back the balance of my time.
Chairman Wilson: Co-Chairman, thank you very much. Multiple
Co-Chair positions you have.
Congressman Harris, do you have an opening statement?
We really are very fortunate today to have outstanding
participation: Senator Jeanne Shaheen, all the way from New
Hampshire; and then--and Congressman Marc Veasey of Texas. We
have--grateful to have with us Emanuel Clever of Missouri; and
then Senator Blumenthal--Richard Blumenthal, Connecticut; and
then--and Congressman Dr. Andy Harris of Maryland. Therefore,
we are well represented.
At this time, we will proceed with the witnesses, and we
are under a--with so many outstanding people here, we are under
a five-minute rule. Therefore,--and we will be following the
five-minute rule with each of our witnesses, and then with each
member of the Commission, with the understanding that the five
minutes begins with me, and I will stick with that.
With that, we are really grateful to have Dan Baer. Dr.
Baer is the senior vice president for policy research at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former U.S.
ambassador to the OSCE. Olesya Vartanyan, the South Caucasus
security expert, we are so grateful to have you here. In
addition, Tigran Grigoryan, the president and founder of the
Regional Center for Democracy and Security in Yerevan.
We will begin with Dr. Baer.
TESTIMONY OF DAN BAER, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT FOR POLICY
RESEARCH, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE AND FORMER
U.S. AMBASSADOR TO THE OSCE
Mr. Baer: Thank you to the Co-Chairs and to the members of
the Commission for inviting me to testify today.
If you had told me when I was serving as U.S. ambassador to
the OSCE that in less than a decade Georgian democracy would be
backsliding as Tbilisi drifted dangerously closer to Putin's
embrace while Armenia would have a democratic awakening and be
bravely trying to expand ties with Europe and the West, I would
have thought you got your Caucasus countries mixed up.
The human toll of the unfreezing of the conflict between
Armenia and Azerbaijan, the hostilities in 2020 and again last
year, has been significant and heartbreaking--not only those
killed, but the more than 100,000 who have been displaced from
their homes in which they grew up and made their lives, and
from the place where their ancestors had made their homes for
many centuries. There are no silver linings to war, but the
political and security situation in the region is different
today, and it would be a mistake not to ask us in a dynamic
moment like this whether there are any new opportunities to
build a more promising future in the wake of a tragic past.
Despite the disappointment of Georgia's backsliding and
Azerbaijan's ongoing authoritarianism, we should not overlook
the hopeful signs in Armenia. We should ask ourselves: What can
the United States and Europe do to support Armenia's democracy,
future prosperity, and long-term security?
First, support peace and normalization with Armenia's
neighbors. Although it will be politically painful and Moscow
may well try to sabotage it, normalization of relations between
Yerevan and Ankara and a lasting peace between Armenia and
Azerbaijan would benefit all three countries. If President
Erdogan and Prime Minister Pashinyan can demonstrate vision and
courage, Armenia-Turkey normalization could proceed--could
proceed and may even lubricate a final peace deal with
Azerbaijan. In addition to the security dividends, Armenia
would be able to diversify its economic partners and reduce its
dependence on Russia. Opening the Turkey-Armenia border would
be a game-changer in this regard. Regional trade between
Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan could support economic
growth and jobs in each country and diversify transit routes
for trade for others. The United States, working with the [EU]
European Union and other partners, should offer political,
diplomatic, and economic support to advance normalization and
peace talks.
Second, build technical skills, including those essential
to trade and good governance. I will highlight just two. One,
is the agricultural sector, where investment in modernization
and storage can help both reduce dependence on Russia for
exports and also make Armenia less vulnerable to price shocks
on key imports like flour. Two, customs and border security
professionalization, where training and modernization of
processes and equipment will be essential to implementing peace
and normalization agreements and can help Armenia take
advantage of regional trade while curbing corruption threats.
Third, the United States should explore partnering with the
EU and other friends of Armenia to develop long-term,
comprehensive security and defense partnerships along the model
of the bilateral assistance agreements that several countries
have developed with Ukraine in the last two years. These
security arrangements could give confidence to Armenians as
their leaders take difficult steps to reduce dependence on
Moscow and carve an independent future.
There will be some who will caution that a warmer embrace
by the West could make Armenia less safe, not more. Just look
at Ukraine, they will say. We must reject this dictator's proxy
veto of our support for the aspirations of the people of
Armenia or any other country. We should be clear the motivation
behind the U.S. and partners' policy is to support the free
future of the people of Armenia, not to score points against
Moscow.
Now is also a time to set realistic expectations. The road
ahead will be long. Casting off the burdens of cultivated
dependency demands long-term structural reforms and
investments. It is the work of a generation and will extend
beyond the term of a single leader. Moscow will likely try to
retard progress. Armenians must be prepared to endure some cold
winters. We must be prepared to sustain our support for the
long term.
Many of you on the dais today have been outspoken,
consistent, principled supporters of Ukraine over the last two-
and-a-half years. Nowhere is the philosophical truth of the
indivisibility of freedom and justice more practically
demonstrable than in the fight against Russian imperialist
tyranny that Ukraine is currently undertaking on behalf of its
own people and, indeed, of all of us. Make no mistake, what
happens in Ukraine has an impact on the freedom and future of
the people of Armenia, the people of Georgia, the people of
Azerbaijan, of Moldova, and on the stability and prosperity of
Europe, including Turkey, for decades to come. If Putin is
allowed to win, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, and all Europeans--
all those who stand in defense of human dignity--will lose
alongside Ukraine. Russia must be defeated. Ukraine must
prevail. There is no alternate outcome that is--that is
acceptable.
Thank you again, Mr. Chair, and I look forward to questions
from the members of the Commission.
Chairman Wilson: Thank you so much, Ambassador.
We are really grateful, again, Ms. Vartanyan, for you to be
here. Thank you.
TESTIMONY OF OLESYA VARTANYAN, SOUTH CAUCASUS SECURITY EXPERT
Ms. Vartanyan: Good afternoon, Chairman Wilson and Co-
Chairman Cardin, and distinguished members of the Commission.
Thank you for inviting me to testify at this important hearing.
Today I am here to discuss the current state of peace talks
between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and what is at stake if they
collapse or hopefully succeed. I will also address the critical
importance of supporting the ethnic Armenian refugees who fled
an Azerbaijani military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh a year
ago.
After three years of sporadic negotiations following the
2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia and Azerbaijan now stand
at a pivotal moment. We have a unique opportunity to achieve a
historic peace agreement. Senior officials from both nations
have indicated that they are close to finalizing a draft
declaration which could significantly reduce the risk of
renewed conflict and lay the foundation for normalizing the
relations.
While both governments assert that the agreement is nearly
finalized, key disagreements remain. Chief among them is
Azerbaijan's demand for amendments to Armenia's constitution.
Baku insists that these changes are necessary to permanently
eliminate any future territorial claims by Armenia regardless
of who holds power. Armenia, which has repeatedly renounced
such claims, views this demand as a potential stalling tactic.
It fears that Azerbaijan may be using this as leverage to delay
or derail the final agreement, though Yerevan remains open to
dialogue.
For Armenia, the stakes could hardly be higher. Some
members of this Commission visited Armenia's Jermuk border
region this summer, where they witnessed Azerbaijani military
positions established over the past two years. During my recent
travels along this and other border areas, I saw no sign that
Azerbaijani forces were preparing to withdraw. On the contrary,
they have entrenched themselves, constructing military barracks
and expanding roads, all well inside Armenian territory. Even
more troubling, both sides now confront each other at
dangerously close military positions on the frontline, where
miscalculations or isolated incidents could quickly escalate
into broader conflict, endangering civilian populations near
the frontlines.
Faced with this situation, Armenia has little choice but to
stay engaged in the peace talks, hoping to reduce the ever-
present threat of a new war. Since Azerbaijan's victory in the
2020 war, Armenia has struggled to rebuild its military
capacity. Its formal ally, Russia, has shown no intention of
assisting, as Moscow remains preoccupied with its illegal war
in Ukraine and seeks to maintain strong ties with Azerbaijan.
Should Azerbaijan pursue Armenia's total capitulation, its
forces could within hours seize critical infrastructure,
especially in Armenia's vulnerable southern regions. While Baku
insists that Yerevan's concerns are false, both Washington and
European capitals have issued strong warnings against the new
Azerbaijani offensive.
Beyond the immediate security risk, the humanitarian
fallout from the conflict continues to loom large. This is the
fate of over a hundred thousand ethnic Armenians who fled
Nagorno-Karabakh almost a year ago. Most remain scattered
across Armenia. In my many months of interviews with dozens of
refugees, I have yet to meet a single person ready to give up
hope of returning to Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the refugees
are also deeply exhausted by decades of military confrontation
and the constant sacrifices their families have endured since
the very start of the conflict. It is very important to support
these refugees and aid their integration into new communities.
Armenia has made a significant commitment to helping them, but
it struggles to provide adequate housing and jobs. These
refugees deserve more than a life on subsidies. They need
opportunities for meaningful work and full integration into
their new communities. The United States has a role to play
here providing not only financial support but also expertise in
managing large-scale displacements effectively in the longer
term.
Again, the peace agreement that Yerevan and Baku now
negotiate will not settle--will not settle three decades of
conflict, but it should reduce the risk of the worst-case
scenarios I have outlined: A full-scale war and another
humanitarian catastrophe. It would mark the start of a long
journey toward rebuilding trust and offer the potential for
expanding trade and economic development. The agreement might
also help unlock long-stalled talks between Armenia and Turkiye
on normalizing relations, which could bring new opportunities
for growth not only to Armenia but to the entire South
Caucasus. With U.S. support, Armenia and Azerbaijan should
seize this opportunity to embark on a less hostile chapter in
their history.
I am happy to take the questions.
Chairman Wilson: Thank you very much. We appreciate again,
Ms. Vartanyan, your service with the International Crisis
Group. [Comes on mic.] We appreciate your service with the
International Crisis Group in Tbilisi, and I wish you well on
your success.
We are so fortunate to also have President Grigoryan and
the--who is the founder of the Regional Center for Democracy
and Security in Yerevan.
TESTIMONY OF TIGRAN GRIGORYAN, PRESIDENT AND FOUNDER, REGIONAL
CENTER FOR DEMOCRACY AND SECURITY, YEREVAN, ARMENIA
Mr. Grigoryan: Mr. Chairman, distinguished members of the
Commission, thank you for the opportunity to testify.
In recent years, Armenia has made significant progress
toward democratization, especially following the 2018
democratic revolution, a watershed moment where our citizens
demanded transparency, the rule of law, and accountable
governance. Yet, Armenia's path to becoming a consolidated
democracy remains fraught with serious challenges.
First, the greatest challenges to Armenia's democracy are
external. The country faces an immediate and existential threat
from neighboring Azerbaijan and a hybrid threat from Russia. In
the past four years, Azerbaijan has used its military advantage
to occupy Armenian territory, impose a nine-month blockade on
the civilians of Nagorno-Karabakh, and conduct a military
operation that forcibly displaced over 100,000 Armenians, an
act characterized by Freedom House as ethnic cleansing. Despite
international condemnation, Azerbaijan continues to threaten
Armenia with force.
Armenia's inability to counter this threat effectively
fuels domestic political polarization and creates fertile
ground for Russia's hybrid warfare efforts. Central to Russia's
malign influence campaign in Armenia lies the narrative that
democratic regimes cannot provide security for their people.
This narrative has gained traction as Armenia seeks to distance
itself from Moscow. Complicating matters is Armenia's economic
and energy dependence on Russia, which Moscow could exploit to
punish Yerevan. Armenia's success in shifting its foreign
policy will largely depend on securing support for its
diversification efforts.
The second major challenge is Armenia's institutional
weakness. While elections and media freedom have significantly
improved since the 2018 revolution, building and maintaining
strong independent institutions that can prevent democratic
backsliding remains a difficult task. Without an effective
system of checks and balances, the future and resilience of
Armenia's democracy will be at serious risk.
The third major challenge is the refugee crisis stemming
from the ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia, a
country of 3 million people, has absorbed over 100,000
refugees, a staggering number when compared to the U.S. refugee
admissions target of 125,000 for this year. While the Armenian
government has addressed the immediate aftermath of the crisis,
the long-term integration of Karabakh Armenian refugees is a
daunting task requiring substantial international support. If
left unresolved, the resulting socioeconomic issues could
undermine social cohesion in Armenian society.
In light of these challenges, I recommend the following.
To secure Armenia's democratic future, the U.S. must tackle
these challenges head-on. Upgrading Armenia from Group [D] to
Group [B] under the Export Administration Regulations would be
a strategic move that could deepen military cooperation and
open the door for advanced U.S. technology transfers. This
could bolster Armenia's defense, reduce reliance on Russia, and
empower it to confront security threats while standing firm as
a democratic partner in a volatile region. At a minimum,
targeted sanctions--targeted sanctions should be imposed on
Azerbaijani officials and servicemen involved in wartime
atrocities and aggression against Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh
Armenians. The absence of accountability only emboldens Baku's
lines of attack.
Sustained U.S. support for Armenia's efforts to diversify
its economy and energy sector is crucial to counter potential
hybrid threats from Russia. Moscow has the leverage to inflict
severe economic pain on Armenia and coerce political alignment.
Equally vital is strengthening Armenia's ability to resist
external disinformation campaigns that threaten both societal
cohesion and state stability.
On the institutional front, the U.S. must prioritize
promoting democratic norms and practices in Armenia, focusing
on institution-building rather than supporting specific
political actors because they are perceived as pro-democracy.
This is what democratic development should be about.
Lastly, the U.S. must increase the support for integrating
Karabakh Armenian refugees. While eleven and one half million
has been allocated, more should be done to address this
humanitarian crisis.
Mr. Chairman and members of the Commission, Armenia's
democratic journey is at a critical juncture. The challenges it
faces, from external security threats to institutional
weaknesses and the refugee crisis, are formidable. With U.S.
support and a commitment to democratic principles, Armenia can
overcome these obstacles. This support is not just about aiding
one nation: It is about preserving a democratic partner in a
region of autocracies.
Thank you for your attention, and I look forward to
answering any questions you may have.
Chairman Wilson: Thank you very much, President Grigoryan.
We have been joined by Congresswoman Victoria Spartz, and
she has a special understanding. She was born in the Soviet
Union, but fortunately, her home community now is part of the
free and courageous Ukraine.
With this in mind, we are going to now proceed to questions
and begin the five minutes with me. As we begin, Ms. Vartanyan,
I was so pleased you referenced the European Union and, indeed,
how positive that can be for the people of Armenia, because I
was with Chairman Cardin yesterday in Brussels, and every time
you see the vibrancy of the European Union--and when we were
visiting across Armenia, we saw different references to EU
support of different projects, and it should be such a bright
future. With that bright future, what are the current economic
opportunities for American businesses in Armenia, particularly
in sectors like IT, renewable energy, and agriculture? How can
America deepen its economic ties with Armenia to foster mutual
opportunity?
Ms. Vartanyan: Well, thank you so much for your question. I
should say that Armenia has been trying to develop its economy
for quite some time. If you have a look at especially the
efforts that have been made in the last five years since the
change of the leadership and the--with the current political
leadership in Armenia, what has been happening is that they
were trying to reform the economic structures inside the
country. However, what is really very important is to continue
building the bridges and the linkages with the outside world.
In that sense, of course, the potential is there when it comes
to the European Union, first of all, but the United States
remains a very important market in that sense as well.
We have been seeing more visits coming from the United
States, especially in recent months, and this should probably
continue. This is where the dialogue started, strategic
dialogue started between the Armenian administration and the
United States. Then this is probably where the conversations
and the discussions should continue as well.
I should probably point to one very important thing which
is more in the sphere of my expertise, which is Armenia's
stability and security. Then I think all the speakers here,
have pointed to Armenia's vulnerability when it comes to its
economic dependence on Russia. Russia remains one of the main
economic partners to Armenia, and then it has quite a lot of
business presence. Then when it comes especially to the supply
of energy to the country, this is where the United States has
been trying to help Armenia and could do much more, and then
this is where probably I should mention the ongoing discussion
about possible U.S. support to rebuild the nuclear potential
for Armenia.
Chairman Wilson: Well, thank you very much, and again, I
particularly appreciate foreign direct investment. In my home
district, with Michelin Tire Corporation, I have the largest
Michelin plant in the world. In my home state of South
Carolina, we have the largest BMW manufacturing facility in the
world, and we want everybody in Armenia to have an X5.
Therefore, this--[laughter]--so it should--and it is mutual
benefit.
Additionally, indeed, Ambassador, I am so concerned about
war criminal Putin trying to recreate the failed Soviet Union,
which was beneficial to the nomenklatura. Now he wants it to be
beneficial as he oppresses the people of Russia to benefit
oligarchs. You identified it correctly. Immediately, the
threats are to Moldova with the occupation--illegal occupation
of Transnistria. We know the illegal occupation of the
different portions--South Ossetia, Abkhazia--of the Republic of
Georgia. Then the danger of Armenia, there are 4,000 at least
Putin troops that were supposed to be there for the protection
of the people of Armenia, but that is not the way it has worked
out, and so what can we do to strengthen our mutual defense
efforts?
Mr. Baer: Thank you, Mr. Co-Chair. We want the right people
to have X5s in that part of the world--[laughs]--not the
oligarchs, but the honest--the honest businesspeople.
Chairman Wilson: We want everybody to have one.
Mr. Baer: Okay. [Laughter.] You know, your question--your
question is quite right. I think Vladimir Putin is making the
best argument against Vladimir Putin's security guarantees that
anybody could make, a stronger argument than we could, and you
see that in public opinion in Armenia today. A few years ago,
90 percent of the population trusted Russia--as a partner, and
now it is down to 30 percent, and that reflects an assessment
of what has gone on in the region. As you said, Russian so-
called peacekeepers have not been peacekeepers in the region.
Therefore, I think we need to continue to look for
opportunities.
One suggestion that I made is that we might work with
partners to set up a series of agreements. There have been
these agreements made with Ukraine that last for 10 years that
kind of give a long-term perspective to security assistance,
and if those could be done by individual partners of Armenia,
they could be bundled together to give Yerevan and the people
of Armenia confidence that there is going to be a partnership
with the West for the long run.
Chairman Wilson: Indeed, I believe there will be.
I am really grateful now to recognize Chairman Ben Cardin.
Senator Cardin: Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Let me thank again
our witnesses.
Therefore, my impression is that to make progress for
Armenia, the next step is to have a successful peace agreement
between Azerbaijan and Armenia. That seems to be the next major
step for Armenia.
Now, I start by saying I am not sure that a peace agreement
is very fair. If I understand it, it does not--they are not
even talking about taking care in Nagorno-Karabakh from the
point of view of access by the community that is been
displaced. They are not even talking about the border issues as
far as the areas that are currently under control by Azerbaijan
and Armenia. Therefore, it is not really a very fair agreement.
All that being said, my understanding is that Armenia wants to
move forward with the agreement because that is the only way
they are going to be able to get their borders open and be able
to get their country economically on the right path.
Now, that requires Azerbaijan to say, well, why cannot we
at least open up the Turkish borders? Yet, Turkey will not open
up the borders until there is an agreement with Azerbaijan.
Then it appears that Russia has to okay Azerbaijan agreeing to
an agreement with Armenia because of the new relationship
between Azerbaijan and Russia, and Russia does not want this to
happen. Therefore, the bottom line is it seems like it is all
falling apart because Russia is saying no. How do we overcome
that?
Ms. Vartanyan: Should I go? Yes? Is it okay if I start?
Senator Cardin: Sure.
Ms. Vartanyan: Well, thank you so much for your analysis.
It is great to hear all these details and especially to feel
how much you do care about what is happening there in the
region.
When you have a conflict for over 30 years; when you have
several wars with so many casualties, with such a large
displacement; and especially when you have to negotiate in a
situation when your major neighbor, Russia, is invading another
neighbor, Ukraine, and you have a question about your own
statehood future; you have to start with something. It is
probably better to start with something where you can agree
with Azerbaijan in order to proceed with your dialogue and then
to settle step by step some of the issues, including the ones
that you mentioned.
I personally believe it is really very important to address
some of the topics that have to do with the war legacy and also
the conflict. You mentioned just one topic, it is the fate of
Nagorno-Karabakh and what happened there. It is really very
difficult for me to see how people from Nagorno-Karabakh,
Armenians, will just forget about their home region. However,
it is really--it is also very difficult for me to see how this
very topic can get on the table at this very moment for them to
agree. Therefore, they probably should start with something
where they can reach an agreement and then proceed with some
more difficult topics.
Senator Cardin: Yes. I agree with that, and so I am
supportive of trying to reach an agreement even though I think
it is not going to be fair. By the way, I do not think--it is
going to be hard to reach this type of agreement. As you have
pointed out, Azerbaijan is insisting on constitutional changes
in Armenia, which is ridiculous. It is just a ridiculous
requirement that they are asking for. It is not needed, and it
is really just something we believe is to delay or eliminate
the agreement.
However, let me raise two other issues and welcome either
--any of your response. How do you deal with the situation? If
we are going to be able to get investors into Armenia, how do
we get tech investors if Russia is present in Armenia? We would
be concerned about compromising our intellectual property, and
how do we deal with a country that has open borders with Iran,
another security threat to the United States? Therefore, how do
we deal with those two issues? Mr. Ambassador, do you want to
try that one?
Mr. Baer: [Laughs.] You always save the easy ones for me.
[Laughter.]
I mean, I think it goes back to your first question. In the
services sector, the tech--the tech investments that you would
expect to see in the near term in Armenia would likely be the
outsourcing of some programming. It would not necessarily be
the highest level of intellectual property threats, and I think
we would be wise to be judicious about who else is present on
the ground across that region. But you cannot get investment in
the services sector if you do not have security, so the peace--
the peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is important for
really developing the services sector, including the IT sector.
The border with Turkey is incredibly crucial to all of the
goods and--the goods--the developments of the goods, the hard
goods business. The border with Turkey is the place to
diversify what are right now two options, neither of which is
very attractive, Iran and Russia. Therefore, if I were going to
make a suggestion to undo the Gordian knot--and I understand it
is difficult--that you laid out, we might consider putting
emphasis on reversing the sequence; not going for peace with
Armenia and--keep those talks going, peace with Armenia and
Azerbaijan first, but rather going for normalization with
Turkey first, and--
Senator Cardin: However, Turkey has said they will not do
it until there is a peace agreement.
Mr. Baer: They will not surprise the Azerbaijanis. They
aare too close to the Azerbaijanis. Therefore, they will --I
mean, not too--they are not going to surprise the Azerbaijanis
by signing some deal without Azerbaijan knowing. However, I
wonder if there could be some practical measures, some
confidence-building measures between Armenia and Azerbaijan
short of normalization; for instance, talks about how they
would manage an open border between the two countries. How
would the two sides, their border security forces, how would
they relate to each other? How would they deal with customs? If
you could start to get people talking about the practicalities,
you might get them to be able to imagine it. At some point,
yes, with Azerbaijan's full knowledge, Turkey may be willing to
take the courageous step to do what is good for the entire
region including Azerbaijan, which is open to that border.
Senator Cardin: Thank you.
Chairman Wilson: Thank you very much, Chairman Cardin.
We now proceed to Co-Chairman Steve Cohen of Tennessee.
Representative Cohen: Having probably torn my relationship
with Turkey apart, I will pass on these questions at the
present time.
Chairman Wilson: You just saw, again, bipartisan
intelligence right there. Therefore, we now--[laughter]-- and
so then--and so it goes straight to Congressman Marc Veasey of
Texas.
STATEMENT OF MARC A. VEASEY, U.S. HOUSE, FROM TEXAS
Representative Veasey: Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. I
appreciate that.
I was hoping, Dr. Baer, that you could talk a little bit
about Israel's relationship with Armenia and Azerbaijan, and do
you see them having a role in future negotiations?
Mr. Baer: I do not know how much of a role I would expect
Israel to have in the actual negotiations. I know Israel has
relations with both countries, and indeed with most countries
in the region, and some of those relationships are founded on
Israel's export of high-technology defense equipment.
Therefore, I could see that as the political and security
situation improves in the region, including between Armenia and
Azerbaijan, that might pave the way for more trade relations
with Israel, as it would with other countries. However, I do
not know that I would expect them to play a pivotal role in the
kind of diplomatic/political work that needs to be done to get
the normalization or the peace agreement in the near term.
Representative Veasey: Thank you very much.
Mr. Grigoryan, I wanted to ask you, I know that you wanted
to--you highlighted Armenia's economic and energy dependence on
Russia. Winter is here, and the last two winters have been
relatively mild, you know, in comparison to previous seasons. I
wanted to know what steps you think the U.S. can take to assist
Armenia in diversifying its energy sources and reducing its
reliance on Russian markets. This has to be something that you
are following closely.
Mr. Grigoryan: Yes. Thank you for your question.
Armenia's dependence--economic dependence and energy
dependence on Russia is quite big at this moment. It has been
the focus of all the talks between the Armenian government and
Western leaders, trying to find a solution to that problem.
Therefore, that is why I think all of us emphasize the need for
diversification.
However, I think we need to understand that it is a long-
term process. It cannot happen overnight, but it is not
impossible either. Our center has recently conducted research
on that topic that actually shows that with continued
investment in Armenia's energy sector, like the atomic station
we were talking about, or improving its agriculture, and
finding new markets for Armenian products, it is possible in
the mid-term and in the long term to reduce this dependency.
It is also important to understand that Russia is quite
weak at this moment, and tha is an opportunity for countries
like Armenia to have a bold foreign policy. It means that the
possibility of Russia implementing sanctions against Armenia is
not that big at this moment. That is why Armenia has been able
to take some bold steps, like removing the Russian border
guards from the airport or from the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.
However, the short answer to your question is to support
Armenia in finding new markets, subsidizing its agriculture, in
removing the tariff barriers to energy resources that are
coming to Armenia, that is one of the biggest problems and that
is one of the biggest reasons for the prevalence of the Russian
energy sources. Therefore, there are solutions. It is not that
it is impossible to do. However, these are all mid-term and
long-term solutions.
Representative Veasey: Do you feel that Armenia's ready for
a long winter if that should occur?
Mr. Grigoryan: I think that is the only way to move
forward. If we are--if we are serious about this whole foreign
policy diversification, enhancing the country's security, I
think there is--this understanding in Yerevan. Of course, there
are some doubts about the capacity of implementing this kind of
strategy or coming up with this kind of strategy. That is why
it is important that the U.S. and the EU continue being engaged
in this process because, without Western support, this process
could be very difficult.
Representative Veasey: Yes, no, thank you very much.
Dr. Baer, on--kind of on the same topic, what strategies
can Armenia adopt to reduce its reliance on Russia,
particularly in the defense sector? How can the U.S. help in
that area?
Mr. Baer: In the defense sector, Armenia has been almost
entirely dependent on Russia for the last three decades, and so
it is going to take a generation to shift. It is not only a
shift in the dependence on Russia for hardware and for
training, but, obviously, a new generation of leadership. Prime
Minister Pashinyan has shown this understanding of the need for
a generational shift, and it is not just in the defense sector;
it is across government services in many ways.
Therefore, I think of two things. One, going back to what I
said before, these bilateral security arrangements or security
agreements where we provide assistance to the security sector--
the security and defense sector over the long run, not just the
United States but also other partners and friends of Armenia.
However, also, some of the training programs that we can do to
build a culture that is appropriate to a free and democratic
people and the future that they have decided that they want.
representative Veasey: Yes. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Chairman Wilson: Thank you very much, Congressman Veasey.
We now proceed to Congressman Dr. Andy Harris of Maryland.
STATEMENT OF ANDY HARRIS, U.S. HOUSE, FROM MARYLAND
Representative Harris: Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.
A couple of questions just following up--on the visit
earlier in the summer. Are the guards removed from the airport,
the Russian troops? They had--so that has taken place.
What about the other Russian forces in the country? There
was a suggestion that the Ukraine conflict was going to cause
Russia to draw down some of its forces. Where does the drawdown
stand? Or is there going to--is there a drawdown? Because the
Russian troops were not only at the airport; they were at other
bases in the country is my understanding.
Ms. Vartanyan: Should I go first?
Well, if you--I think it is actually better to look--to
take a big--kind of a broader snapshot of what has been
happening in the region since Russia invaded Ukraine. In that
sense, of course, the situation that happened last year in
Nagorno-Karabakh is probably one of those indications where we
see the Russian declining ability to have an impact on the
ground. In that sense, I am not sure that we should be only
discussing kind of, you know, their presence or continued
presence in these places. They might have something on the
paper, but that does not necessarily mean that Russia is either
willing or even able to activate its presence on the ground,
yes? I think it is really very important to point. Again, the
situation, what happened in Nagorno-Karabakh last year with the
Russian peacekeepers on the ground absolutely not acting to do
anything and Moscow not even taking any kind of--you know,
paying any kind of attention, including to the fact that some
of the Russian peacekeepers got killed during that very crisis.
Therefore, the Russian peacekeepers are still--the Russian
military is still present along the Armenian-Turkish border,
and then also they are present at the Armenian-Iranian border.
The Russian military presence, at the--request of Armenia left
not only the airport but also left a number of--a number of
their military bases, like small ones along the Armenian-
Azerbaijani border. I could see it myself when I was traveling
there in July that the Russians were no longer there and they
had to pack and leave Armenia. However, I mean, again, in light
of the war in Ukraine, it is not only the actual having
presence, basically physical presence on the ground; it is also
the declining Russian ability or sometimes even willingness to
activate some of the tools and the resources that it has on the
ground.
Representative Harris: Thank you. When we visited, there
was a suggestion that, of course, Azerbaijan is assisting in
avoiding the sanctions on Russia and bypassing sanctions on
Russia, especially with regards to energy flow from the Caspian
Sea--I am sorry, from Russia through Azerbaijan. However, there
are--there are also some reports that Armenia--that may be
taking place in Armenia as well, helping Russia avoid
sanctions. Is the Armenian government adamant that that should
not be happening; that, in fact, these sanctions, these--a lot
of these--U.S. and Western sanctions on Russia should be abided
by all the players in the South Caucasus?
Ms. Vartanyan: Should I try to respond to it? Maybe I will
allow some of my colleagues also to follow up.
Well, you know, I have been working on the whole region of
the South Caucasus, and usually, to be honest, I mean, in my
conversations with the Western officials and diplomats, it is
not Armenia but Georgia that comes up in the conversations.
Armenia, in contrast to many other countries that are bordering
Russia, has been staying very transparent and willing to
cooperate and also to respond to all the questions that have
been coming either from the United States or from the European
Union. I think we have already lost count of the delegations
that have been visiting and, again, kind of checking and
reporting back to their capitals that there have been no
problems so far.
Mr. Grigoryan: I can confirm that this is actually the
case. For the Armenian government, this is an absolute red line
and they are doing everything to meet all the requirements that
have been set by the Western partners.
However, when it comes to Azerbaijan, it is not just about
the sanctions; it is about also creating alternative
infrastructure for Russia to trade with the outside world. The
so-called North-South Transportation Corridor that allows
Russia to basically direct all these products that were sold to
Europe to the Indian market and to other markets is very
important. If you look at the recent trip by the Russian
president, Vladimir Putin, to Baku, that was the most important
issue they discussed. Gazprom and the Azerbaijani state oil
company, SOCAR, signed a new $1 billion agreement on developing
that route. A lot of other agreements were signed. Therefore,
this is much more serious than evading sanctions.
Representative Harris: Thank you very much.
Chairman Wilson: Thank you very much, Dr. Harris.
We now proceed to Emanuel Cleaver of Missouri.
STATEMENT OF EMANUEL CLEAVER, U.S. HOUSE, FROM MISSOURI
Representative Cleaver: Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Thank you
for this hearing.
Ms. Vartanyan, I am going to direct this question to you
although I am interested in any of you responding. However, you
had earlier suggested that the Azerbaijan military appears to
be expanding their military operations or their positions along
the frontline and building barracks, expanding roads. In the
United States, unfortunately, we get pretty much only news
from--the American public--only on the United States, so we are
not aware of things that are going on in places around the
world. Therefore, you know, I think this may be an opportunity
for us to at least, you know, expose to the American public
some of the things that are going on.
Therefore, I am interested if you would expand on the
current military situation on the ground, and would it--would
it be provocative if there was some kind of peacekeeping force
or whatever else you might have--like to suggest?
Ms. Vartanyan: Thank you so much for this question. In
response to the Azerbaijani attack in 2022, the European Union
was very fast to deploy the European Union civilian mission to
Armenia. It now monitors all--whole long border between Armenia
and Azerbaijan. The European Union's observers, they are
patrolling 24/7, and they are reporting to their capitals
regularly about every single smallest development on the
ground. I know that some members of the Commission saw the
mission.
I should say that Canada, which is not a member of the
European Union, joined the EU--the EU mission in Armenia, and
there were some more conversations about some other countries
that could join. I know that there were some discussions about
the United States potentially participating. I should say that,
of course, the United States, in that sense, will not be a
leading country. It will be one of many. However, in a way, it
will also provide the United States an opportunity to get very
regular updates about everything that is happening on the
ground, along with other Western partners. Then this will be
basically the eyes and ears of the United States on the ground.
Therefore, that could be probably something to consider,
and then discuss with the State Department and some other
agencies that are responsible for such decisions. As far as I
know, there were some preliminary discussions going on, on that
very issue. Of course, it will very much depend on the United
States and the European Union whether they will want to proceed
with every decision.
Representative Cleaver: Thank you.
Does anyone else like to respond to that?
Mr. Grigoryan: Yes. I think in this context, the most
important thing, as have--as I mentioned in my testimony, is to
support Armenia to defend itself. There have been certain steps
by countries like India, and France, who have sold weaponry to
Armenia. However, I think more should be done. Because we have
discussed the peace treaty, the peace talks. I think it is
important. I agree with that. However, under the current
circumstances, when the imbalance of power is such--there is
such a huge imbalance of power, Armenia not being able to
defend itself is the biggest problem. Because Azerbaijan will
exploit future opportunities to escalate the situation.
The peace treaty basically, at this point, does not resolve
any of the outstanding issues. It is just a political document
about recognizing each other's territorial integrity and
sovereignty. There will be still a lot of unresolved issues
after the signing of the treaty, like the unblocking of
communications, and the limitation of the border. Therefore, we
might still have a very volatile situation, even if this peace
treaty is signed. I am not sure it is going to be signed in the
near future.
Mr. Baer: I can just add that I think the monitoring
mission, the observers, are really important. Right now, they
are really important because they are reporting on the ground
on a daily basis and providing information to the international
community. The hope is that right now what appears to be an
ongoing aggressive posture by Azerbaijan is part of a
negotiating tactic, and not a sign that they plan to make
another move. The hope. If they do make another move,
obviously, the observers are there. After there is a peace
deal, the observers will remain important in giving confidence
to both sides that the peace deal is being implemented, because
there will be outstanding issues. I think after a peace deal,
the observers can help build confidence on both sides that the
peace will stick.
Representative Cleaver: Thank you very much.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Chairman Wilson: Thank you very much, Congressman Cleaver.
Now proceed immediately to Congresswoman Victoria Spartz of
Indiana.
STATEMENT OF VICTORIA SPARTZ, U.S. HOUSE, FROM INDIANA
Representative Spartz: Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I just
have, like, a brief question for the ambassador. What do you
think, if you look at South Caucasus right now, the lay of the
land? It is interesting, just if you have some thoughts, on
whether Azerbaijan intends to join BRICS. What is--what are
your thoughts really where the powers are moving and what is
really happening? Would like to hear your perspective.
Mr. Baer: Sure. Let me start with Azerbaijan. I think Ilham
Aliyev has masterfully been able to use petrochemicals and his
control over energy in the region to bargain with the West.
Obviously, the war in Ukraine has created more interest from
Europe, in particular, in Azerbaijan's petrochemicals, while
he's been cozying up to Putin and making a kind of fraternity
of authoritarians with Putin. Therefore, Azerbaijan is--and,
obviously, after a military victory he feels quite emboldened.
I think the goal of U.S. diplomacy should make--should be
to engage with him, because we do not have any choice, but to
engage with him and try to encourage him not to let the
emboldened go to his head and make decisions that are may in
the short run gratifying, but in the long run, undermine not
only the stability of other countries in the region but also
Azerbaijan's own prospects for a prosperous and secure future.
In Georgia, it is a devastatingly sad story right now. The
backsliding of Georgian democracy over the last few years in
particular has been heartbreaking for many of us who saw
Georgia as a bright light as recently as a few years ago.
Georgia has been accused of being a conduit for sanctions
evasion and exporting to Russia goods that should not be
exported to Russia. The current government has copied/pasted,
effectively, Russia's anti-NGO law, forcing NGOs to register.
I know that Senator Shaheen was in a meeting recently where
she reported that she was told that if the United States would
stop funding pro-democracy NGOs, that would solve problems in
Tbilisi. Of course, the United States should continue to
support those on the ground, which is the vast majority of
Georgians who want a free, democratic Georgian government and
who want a free, democratic Georgian future.
I hope that we will stay engaged with Tbilisi. They have an
election coming up, as I am sure you know, in October, before
ours, and that election will be really pivotal. If the
opposition wins, the prospects for unwinding some of the
backsliding that has happened in recent years are on the table,
as well as making progress with Georgia's talks with the EU
which are now stalled because of the backsliding. Therefore,
watch this space. The next 50 days will be really pivotal in
Georgia. I was in Tbilisi last week.
Interesting side note, I had the chance to meet with the
president who, a couple of years ago, had--when I had asked
about backsliding--she had told me and my colleagues, you know,
do not worry, just wait and see how this turns out. This year,
she came into our meeting, and she said, our Georgian Dream--
which, of course, is the ruling party--our Georgian Dream has
become a Georgian nightmare. Therefore, her tone has changed,
and she was sounding the alarm as well, as well as many in
civil society.
You know--obviously, you know the situation in Ukraine as
well as anyone and have been an outspoken champion of Ukraine.
Obviously, Armenia finds itself sandwiched between huge
regional dynamics--and in some ways strangled--by huge regional
dynamics that are not of its own making. However, geography is
something that none of us can escape. Therefore, I think the
reason why this hearing is so important, and continued
congressional visits like the ones that your colleagues have
made, is so important is to let people on the ground in Armenia
know that America sees them, we want the same democratic future
that they want for themselves, and that we will be there to
support them in the long run.
Representative Spartz: Thank you. Does anyone else want to
add briefly something? No? Okay.
Thank you. I yield back.
Chairman Wilson: Thank you very much, Congresswoman.
As we conclude, I think it is very clear for the people of
Armenia and also for the people of Georgia that we have
bicameral support--U.S. House, U.S. Senate--for freedom and
democracy. We have bipartisan Republicans and Democrats also
very supportive of freedom and democracy for the people of
Armenia.
I am so happy you mentioned the Republic of Georgia because
the nation of Georgia--we are just impressed by the people of
Georgia and know that their past experience has been to work
closely with the EU, with the United States. That would be in
their interest, and not to adopt foreign registration acts that
could be clearly identified as a precursor of dictatorship, as
has been sadly revealed in the Russian Federation and
Venezuela.
Keeping this in mind again, we are so hopeful for the
people of Armenia. I have to restate, bicameral, House and
Senate, bipartisan, Republicans and Democrats. We want the best
for the people of Armenia. With that, we are adjourned. [Sounds
gavel.]
[Whereupon, at 3:40 p.m., the hearing ended.]
[all]
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