[Joint House and Senate Hearing, 117 Congress]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]


                       PREVENTING MASS ATROCITIES

=======================================================================

                                HEARING

                               BEFORE THE

                       COMMISSION ON SECURITY AND 
                         COOPERATION IN EUROPE

                        U.S. HELSINKI COMMISSION

                     U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

                    ONE HUNDRED SEVENTEENTH CONGRESS

                             FIRST SESSION

                               __________

                              MAY 13, 2021

                               __________

 Printed for the use of the Commission on Security and Cooperation in 
                                 Europe

                              [CSCE117-1]
                              
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                       Available via www.csce.gov
                       
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            COMMISSION ON SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE

                        U.S. HELSINKI COMMISSION

U.S. SENATE                                     U.S. HOUSE

BENJAMIN L. CARDIN, Maryland 		STEVE COHEN, Tennessee Co-Chairman
    Chairman				JOE WILSON, South Carolina Ranking 
					    Member
ROGER F. WICKER, Mississippi 		ROBERT B. ADERHOLT, Alabama
    Ranking Member			EMANUEL CLEAVER II, Missouri
RICHARD BLUMENTHAL, Connecticut		BRIAN FITZPATRICK, Pennsylvania
JOHN BOOZMAN, Arkansas			RUBEN GALLEGO, Arizona
MARCO RUBIO, Florida			RICHARD HUDSON, North Carolina
JEANNE SHAHEEN, New Hampshire		GWEN MOORE, Wisconsin
TINA SMITH, Minnesota			MARC A. VEASEY, Texas
THOM TILLIS, North Carolina		
SHELDON WHITEHOUSE, Rhode Island
                                   

                            EXECUTIVE BRANCH
                 Department of State - to be appointed
                Department of Defense - to be appointed
                Department of Commerce - to be appointed
                       
                       C  O  N  T  E  N  T  S

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                             COMMISSIONERS

Hon. Benjamin L. Cardin, Chairman, from Maryland.................     1

Hon. Roger F. Wicker, from Mississippi...........................     3

Hon. Richard Hudson, from North Carolina.........................     3

Hon. Tina Smith, from Minnesota..................................     4

Hon. Steve Cohen, Co-Chairman from Tennessee.....................    17

Hon. Marc A. Veasey, from Texas..................................    21


                               WITNESSES

Professor Timothy Snyder, Richard C. Levin Professor of History, 
  Yale University................................................     5

Naomi Kikoler, Director, Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention 
  of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum...........     7


 
                       PREVENTING MASS ATROCITIES

                              ----------                              

 COMMISSION ON SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN 
                                    EUROPE,
                          U.S. HELSINKI COMMISSION,
                                  HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES,
                                            Thursday, May 13, 2021.

    The hearing was held from 9:32 a.m. to 11:04 a.m. via 
videoconference, Senator Benjamin L. Cardin [D-MD], Chairman, 
Commission for Security and Cooperation in Europe, presiding.

    Commission Members Present: Senator Benjamin L. Cardin [D-
MD], Chairman; Senator Roger F. Wicker [R-MS]; Representative 
Richard Hudson [R-NC]; Senator Tina Smith [D-MN]; Co-Chairman 
Steve Cohen[D-TN]; Representative Marc A. Veasey [D-TX].
    Witnesses: Professor Timothy Snyder, Richard C. Levin 
Professor of History, Yale University; Naomi Kikoler, Director, 
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United 
States Holocaust Memorial Museum.

OPENING STATEMENT OF BENJAMIN L. CARDIN, CHAIRMAN, U.S. SENATE, 
                         FROM MARYLAND

    Chairman Cardin: Well, good morning, everyone. I am waiting 
to make sure we have a cue that we are all set up and we are 
hearing each other. I think we are okay to go? Senator Wicker 
is giving me a green light, so if I get a green light from 
Senator Wicker, I know I am okay to go.
    Let me first welcome everyone to the first meeting of the 
Helsinki Commission in this Congress. I am honored to chair the 
Commission this year as the chairmanship goes to the United 
States Senate. As I think members of this Commission know, I 
have a partner on the Senate side in Senator Wicker. The two of 
us have worked together seamlessly on behalf of the principles 
of the Helsinki Final Act. It is a pleasure, again, to have 
Senator Wicker as a partner as we start this two-year cycle of 
the Helsinki Commission.
    I also want to acknowledge new members. I see Senator Smith 
is on the phone. We welcome her to the Commission. It is good 
to have you as a member, and we look forward to your active 
participation. I also acknowledge that Congressman Hudson is 
with us today. I know other members will join us, and I will 
talk a little bit about his leadership in regard to chairing 
the first committee.
    I need to start by acknowledging the loss of Alcee 
Hastings, who was a long-time member of the Helsinki 
Commission, rose to become the president of the OSCE 
Parliamentary Assembly, was a person who was extremely active 
on all of the issues concerning the Helsinki Commission, and 
really increased the stature of U.S. participation globally on 
human rights issues. We will miss him. His legacy will live on, 
and I know that he is smiling at us today as we continue the 
work of the OSCE and the Helsinki Commission.
    I also want to just acknowledge that our work during this 
Congress will involve the work in the Congress itself, as we 
are having this hearing today to deal with atrocity prevention 
issues. We will also be the arm that will work with the U.S. 
participation in the OSCE itself, and we will be actively 
engaged in the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly. In that role, we 
are very proud that Senator Wicker--who has risen to vice 
president of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly--represents us in 
the leadership of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly.
    Congressman Hudson chairs the all-important First Committee 
of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly. That committee deals with 
one of the three baskets, the security basket, which has been 
extremely challenged during this time of Russia's aggression in 
Ukraine, its continued occupation of parts of Georgia, and the 
list goes on and on and on. The challenges in Belarus are 
getting even worse as we speak. The aggression of so many 
issues of security. Which brings us to the issues of the other 
two baskets.
    The basket dealing with the economic issues has been much 
more challenged as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and we 
will be actively engaged on that. The third committee, which 
deals with the human rights dimension has also obviously been 
very much in the news. We have the challenges of an OSCE 
country such as Turkey, which has seen a tremendous erosion of 
the rights of its people. We also have some of our closest 
allies who we see backsliding, including Hungary and Poland.
    We have a very active engagement as it relates to these 
agenda areas. One of those areas that we are going to talk 
about today is the focus on preventing mass atrocities, 
including genocide and other mass killings. In the aftermath of 
World War II, the world rejected the view of national 
sovereignty which had taken, in the Holocaust, to its most 
horrific extreme. Today there are few international legal 
principles more firmly established than the prohibition on 
genocide, which is among the laws binding on all nations. The 
1948 genocide convention goes further than just condemning this 
crime. It recognizes not only the right but the obligation of 
the community of nations to prevent and punish the crime of 
genocide.
    In 1991, the OSCE-participating states explicitly 
recognized that human rights, democracy, and the rule of law 
are matters of international concern and not merely internal 
affairs. As a member of the Helsinki Commission, I have long 
worked with others in Congress to strengthen U.S. efforts to 
prevent mass atrocities and to respond when they occur, and to 
hold states and individuals accountable for such crimes, as we 
did by supporting the international criminal tribunal for the 
former Yugoslavia. While response and accountability--while 
response and accountability are critical, I am convinced that 
genocide and mass atrocities are preventable, not inevitable. 
The United States must do more to stop such crimes from 
occurring in the first place.
    That is why I worked with Senator Todd Young of Indiana to 
pass the Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act of 
2018--bipartisan legislation to ensure the U.S. government 
works in a coordinated matter using its full range of tools to 
help prevent mass atrocities. That was a very important bill. 
Today, I hope during this hearing we will talk about how well 
it is working and whether there are areas that we can improve, 
either through Congress or through implementation, the purpose 
of the Eli Wiesel Atrocities Prevention Act. At issue is how we 
can improve early warning. How do we marshal the political will 
to counter escalating risk factors? How can we build more 
effective alliances of shared values, so the United States does 
not have to go alone, spend massive resources, or resort to 
force? How can we avoid being stuck with only risky and costly 
options?
    The occurrence of risk of mass atrocities remains gravely 
high, despite the global consensus behind the principles 
embodied in the Genocide Convention that formally binds 152 
countries. The COVID-19 pandemic has made matters worse, and 
the factors are correlated with mass killings, including 
economic instability, widespread unemployment, and resource 
shortages--all with disparate impacts on minorities and the 
most vulnerable. Access to justice and other remedies have been 
limited by the pandemic. According to the Freedom House most 
recent Nations in Transit report, attacks on democratic 
institutions are spreading faster than ever in Europe and 
Eurasia and coalescing into a challenge to democracy itself. 
The memory of the 20th-century atrocities has been weaponized 
for 21st-century political skirmishes.
    We have two very distinguished witnesses to help us in this 
discussion. Before I formally introduce them, let me turn first 
to Senator Wicker--who got caught off-guard.

  STATEMENT OF ROGER F. WICKER, U.S. SENATE, FROM MISSISSIPPI

    Senator Wicker: [Off mic]--atrocities continue to occur, 
and it is not just in the--in the European region, which we 
have a specific jurisdiction over. What is happening in China 
is--should be a concern around the world, and if you have been 
to Yugoslavia, as Ben and Richard and I have, you know that 
feelings are still there under the surface. There is a concern, 
even in our hemisphere. I appreciate Senator Cardin convening 
this hearing. I am eager to get into the witness testimony. I 
will yield back on that but, this is a good topic for May of 
2021. Thank you.
    Chairman Cardin: Congressman Hudson, any opening comments?

  STATEMENT OF RICHARD HUDSON, U.S. HOUSE, FROM NORTH CAROLINA

    Representative Hudson: Well, I will just very briefly say 
thank you for your leadership, Senator Cardin. Thank you for 
convening this really important hearing. Also, I want to 
acknowledge Alcee Hastings. He was a real mentor to me, and 
really pushed me to be more engaged internationally. He is 
sorely missed, but he will never be forgotten. Thank you for 
mentioning that at the outset. Just want to thank our 
witnesses. I look forward to hearing your testimony. You know, 
this is an issue that we have a long history in our country--
with Republican and Democrat leadership--of recognizing the 
need to engage to prevent mass atrocities. I just look forward 
to hearing from the witnesses and working together on this--on 
this important issue. Thank you.
    Senator Cardin: Thank you.
    Senator Smith, welcome. Wonderful to have you on the 
Commission. By tradition, if you would like to make an opening 
comment you may, or you may defer.

      STATEMENT OF TINA SMITH, U.S. SENATE, FROM MINNESOTA

    Senator Smith: Well, thank you so much, Senator Cardin and 
Senator Wicker. It is a real honor for me to join the Helsinki 
Commission for my first hearing. I want to just note that this 
committee has a distinguished history of advancing important 
initiatives on human rights and democracy, environmental, 
economic, and military cooperation throughout Europe and the 
world. Certainly, today the number of threats to rule-based 
international order is growing. We see the increasing incidents 
of mass atrocities, terrorism, great-power competition, and 
nuclear proliferation. These are just some of the challenges 
that we face.
    The work of this Commission feels more important to me than 
ever before. I am grateful to have a chance to serve with all 
of you. I am very grateful to--our testifiers today and look 
forward to hearing more.
    Thank you so much, Senator Cardin.
    Chairman Cardin: Thank you, Senator Smith. Again, we look 
forward to working with you on the Commission.
    I am going to introduce both witnesses and then we will 
hear first from Mr. Snyder. Timothy Snyder is the Levin 
professor of history at Yale University and a permanent fellow 
at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna. He is the author 
of dozens of books, including bestsellers "On Tyranny," "The 
Road to Unfreedom," "Black Earth," the "Bloodlands." His work 
has been translated into 40 languages and has received numerous 
prizes, including the literature award of the American Academy 
of Arts and Letters.
    Naomi Kikoler is the director of the Simon-Skjodt Center 
for the Prevention of Genocide at the United States Holocaust 
Memorial Museum. I am a proud representative to the United 
States Senate on the Holocaust Memorial Museum. Ms. Kikoler has 
led the center's policy engagement with the United States 
government on work on bearing witness to countries, including 
undertaking the documentation of the genocide committed by 
ISIS. The museum's bearing witness trips to places that are 
experiencing ongoing atrocity crimes observe firsthand 
conditions on the ground, assess current and future risk to 
civilian populations, and formulate recommendations for future 
protection efforts. I am so proud of the museum's work not only 
to preserve our history but to use the past as a guide for 
preventing future atrocities and protecting human rights.
    We will start first with Professor Snyder. Your full 
statements will be made part of the record. We ask that you 
summarize so we have time for questions from the members of the 
Commission.
    Professor Snyder, please go ahead.

   TESTIMONY OF TIMOTHY SNYDER, PROFESSOR, RICHARD C. LEVIN 
             PROFESSOR OF HISTORY, YALE UNIVERSITY

    Mr. Snyder: Thank you. Senator Cardin, Senator Wicker, 
Senator Smith, and Congressman Hudson, it is a great pleasure 
to, in the company of Naomi Kikoler, make a few arguments about 
what we know and what we do not know about the origins of 
genocide. I am--I am a historian. In my brief remarks, I will 
be drawing from what I think I understand about the 1930s and 
the 1940s. The brief that I have been assigned involves 
preventing mass atrocities--topic number one. Sustaining 
alliances, is topic number two. The possibility of knowing if 
mass atrocities have been avoided successfully, is number 
three.
    Number three is the hardest. I will--I will get to it. I 
want to start by just noticing the logic around it. From a 
historical point of view, it is very hard to know if you have 
done good. Just like it is very hard to know if you have 
prevented crime. You can look at a city where crime rates have 
decreased significantly, and you can say that is a very good 
thing. It is very hard to point to the specific crimes that 
have been prevented. We have the same problem with genocide 
prevention, looking historically. No doubt, there were 
historical scenarios that could have unfolded under which there 
would have been more genocides. It is hard to say just what 
they were.
    Where this logic leads are where a lot of other logics 
lead. Naomi Kikoler will have more to say about this, I am 
sure. Where this logic leads is toward prevention. Insofar as 
we understand some of the historical conditions of mass 
atrocity, then we are--then we have the capacity to build 
policies that would restrict and restrain some of these 
preconditions. I am going to mention four of them.
    The first precondition of mass atrocity is the lack of 
information on the presence of disinformation. I will cite an 
example that is rarely mentioned, which is the Ukrainian famine 
in the Soviet Union of 1933. The United States established 
diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union right after this 
mass atrocity, which at the time was the worst such episode in 
the 20th century. This event was inadequately reported, and it 
was subject to very substantial and effective disinformation on 
the part of the Soviet Union. I am not saying that the United 
States in 1933 could or would have intervened. This was a very 
different country in 1933. What I am suggesting is that this is 
a very powerful example of the importance of information and 
disinformation, and it has implications for the present.
    One implication for the present is that we need more 
foreign correspondents. The United States of America needs to 
have more actual physical reporters in foreign countries. We 
lack that. The second implication has to do with 
disinformation. Facebook and other social media technologies 
permit local actors to carry out powerfully polarizing 
disinformation which, for example, in the case of the Rohingya 
I think had a pretty decisive consequence.
    Point number two is time. I am afraid this is a historian's 
point. We tend to look at genocide, and mass atrocity, 
retrospectively. We build museums to commemorate what happened 
after we know what has happened. At the beginning of a mass 
atrocity, there is very often this sense that there is no time, 
that time is running out, that a catastrophe is coming. Often 
this catastrophe is an ecological catastrophe. This is the 
aspect of Hitler's Holocaust which I think is most often and 
most, I think, substantially overlooked in our discussions.
    When Hitler was talking about why Germany had to carry out 
policies of mass killing, and why it had to displace and 
murder, his argument was that time was running out, and there 
are not enough resources. It follows from this, I think, in the 
21st century that we want to avoid situations where people 
think that they are pressured in terms of land or water or 
access to other critical resources. From that, of course, it 
follows that we want to avoid the reality, and therefore the 
perception, of a climate disaster.
    Number three is state membership. What the social 
scientific literature says is that ethnic cleansing happens not 
when states are strong but when states are weak, when states 
are falling apart. The exception to this is party states. Party 
states--Communist, Nazi--also carry out policies of mass 
killing. The most extreme policy of mass killing, the 
Holocaust, was the result of a party state, Nazi Germany, 
destroying other states and creating a colonial zone where 
otherwise unthinkable things could take place.
    What follows from this is that a policy that aims to 
prevent genocide would be a policy that aims to support states 
to support the rule of law within states, and to support 
democracy within the rule of law. When we look at U.S. history, 
and we look back at the 1930s, we have a kind of self-
examination where we realize we could have offered more state 
protection to more people than we did. Many of the rescuers in 
the Holocaust were, in fact, diplomats. Sadly, not that many of 
them were ours.
    The fourth category is human rights. When the state no 
longer functions--or, when the state no longer recognizes its 
own people, the category of human rights, as the Senators have 
already emphasized, is what we have to fall back on. The United 
States has to model human rights and not just use the term. It 
has to use the terms anti-Semitism and racism as the classic 
examples of the opposite of human rights.
    Here, very importantly, I think, is history. As has already 
been noted, the history of the 20th century is being 
weaponized. In Russia, for example, in order to justify further 
aggression and create conditions of risk for atrocity in the 
21st century. We tend to be on the back foot. We are less 
interested in history. We tend to get distracted or maybe even 
overwhelmed by others historical propaganda. The final thing 
that human rights implies is the notion of humanity as a legal 
concept, which is a little weak on the American side.
    Do we know if we prevented--if we prevented mass 
atrocities? We prevented some. The War Refugees Board certainly 
saved people from the Holocaust. Our intervention in the Second 
World War led Romania to change its policies, which saved tens 
of thousands of lives. In general, as has already been 
suggested, by the time you get to military options it is too 
late. The historical logic leads back to where a lot of other 
logics lead, which is prevention.
    Thank you very much for your attention.
    Chairman Cardin: Professor, thank you for your comments.
    Ms. Kikoler.

 TESTIMONY OF NAOMI KIKOLER, DIRECTOR, SIMON-SKJODT CENTER FOR 
 THE PREVENTION OF GENOCIDE, UNITED STATES HOLUCAUST MEMORIAL 
                             MUSEUM

    Ms. Kikoler: Thank you so much, Senator Cardin. Thank you 
to the Commission for hosting this incredibly timely discussion 
about the importance of prevention and early action. As an 
independent federal establishment created by Congress, the 
United States Holocaust Memorial Museum serves as a living 
memorial to the victims of the Holocaust. The museum teaches 
that the Holocaust was preventable, and that individuals and 
governments can save lives through effective early warning and 
corresponding preventive action. We work to stimulate our 
national conscience and worldwide action to prevent and halt 
acts of genocide.
    Part of our goal is to do for victims today what was not 
done for Jews of Europe during the 1930s and 1940s. I will be 
touching on some of the themes that Professor Snyder discussed, 
including the absence of political will, in my presentation. It 
explain also what we understand today in regard to what are 
early warning risks and warning signs, as well as a quick 
assessment of U.S. government efforts and the importance of 
transatlantic partnership. We have a longer testimony that will 
go into the record. I am happy to talk at length about each of 
these issues.
    It is important to state upfront that no country is immune 
to risks. Our approach to early warning and atrocity prevention 
is applicable in any context or country case. If there are four 
things that I would like you to leave today with the first is, 
as Senator Cardin said, mass atrocity crimes, including 
genocide, are preventable. They are not spontaneous events. 
They are processes that we can track, disrupt, and ultimately 
prevent. The second is that early warning information does 
exist. Investing in appropriately assessing that information 
allows for lifesaving and cost-effective early action. A 
requisite, and an area for continued improvement both by the 
U.S. government and within the OSCE, is mustering the political 
will to act.
    In that regard, Congress plays a critical role in 
addressing this gap. Enforcing the legislation that calls on 
the United States to prevent atrocities, including the Eli 
Wiesel Act, enacting new legislation, such as the crimes 
against humanity bill that Senator Durbin has advanced, and 
joining us in sounding the alarm when a country is at risk. 
Entities like the OSCE and its member governments have a 
critical role to play in early warning. The U.S. leads on early 
warning internationally, but we know that the U.S. alone cannot 
deter atrocities. What is needed is to devise and implement 
coordinated transatlantic atrocity prevention efforts. At this 
time, our assessment is that those are woefully underdeveloped.
    What are mass atrocity crimes and how can we prevent them? 
Mass atrocity crimes are acts that shock our conscience. They 
are large-scale and deliberate acts on civilians that 
constitute acts of genocide, crimes against humanity, ethnic 
cleansing, and war crimes. As the OSCE region knows well, which 
encompasses much of the lands where the Holocaust was 
perpetrated, no country is immune from the scourge of these 
crimes. Since the creation of the OSCE, we have seen mass 
atrocity crimes perpetrated in the region, including the 1995 
genocide committed in Srebrenica.
    More recently, we have seen troubling signs in the region, 
such as hate speech targeting ethnic and religious minorities, 
including rising anti-Semitism, the rise of authoritarian 
features and governments in Europe, and existing armed 
conflict. To be clear, such indicators do not predict that 
genocide is on the horizon in any given setting, but they do 
alert us to structural fragility and possible early warning 
signs that we can and should aim to understand better and 
address. To be clear, atrocity prevention is a goal that can 
evoke different diplomatic, security, or development tools and 
approaches depending on different contexts and risks arising in 
a given country.
    At its core, it requires greater attention to and policy 
engagement on the early warning signs and root causes of mass 
atrocities. We believe that this fits squarely within the best 
interests of the United States. As generous as the United 
States is in manmade humanitarian disaster response and 
conflict response, it is by far cheaper and wiser to invest in 
mitigation programming and diplomatic efforts early on before 
the crisis unfolds and, sadly, we see loss of life.
    We know that mass atrocities have had devastating and 
destabilizing effects on communities, regions, and countries 
for decades. The OSCE region in particular knows well the 
challenges that arise in helping to rebuild societies in the 
aftermath of such crimes and has at times been at the forefront 
of trying to undertake that work, including in advancing 
justice and accountability in the former Yugoslavia.
    With regard to talking about early warning risk factors and 
warning signs, it is important to not forget that before the 
Holocaust--and Timothy Snyder can go into much more detail on 
this--Germany was a Western democracy with a liberal rule of 
law foundation. The Nazis were in power for eight years before 
they initiated industrial-style systematic killings in an 
attempt to exterminate all of Europe's Jews. There were many 
warning signs before the horrors of the death camps. We can 
understand that today. One of the cardinal lessons of the 
Holocaust is therefore the imperative of identifying and 
addressing warning signs before mass killing or genocide 
begins.
    The 2008 bipartisan Albright-Cohen Genocide Prevention Task 
Force stated clearly that effective early warning does not 
guarantee successful prevention, but if warning is absent, 
slow, inaccurate, or indistinguishable from the noise of 
regular reporting, failure is virtually guaranteed. Now, our 
and other research suggests that there are a number of long-
term risk factors and short-term dynamics and triggers that, 
though on their own are not sufficient, are often necessary for 
atrocities to arise.
    What could some of those look like? To complement what 
Professor Snyder has stated, we focus on both an analysis of 
upstream and more proximate risks. Upstream fragility factors 
or structural risk factors help us understand the underlying 
communal tensions, and structural and legal inequities that 
exacerbate risks over the long run. They help to create an 
environment for enablers of violence to organize, resource 
themselves, and motivate actions against vulnerable groups. The 
existence of one or more does not mean that there will be 
inevitably mass atrocities, but it should mean that more 
analysis of preventive action is actually done.
    Some examples are the existence of armed conflict, prior 
discrimination of violence against targeted groups, impunity 
for past crimes, and fragile and new democracies. Warning signs 
begin to appear when atrocity risks are rising and can serve as 
a more imminent early warning. They include such things as 
prohibiting free speech, the development of irregular forces 
and militias, stockpiling of weapons, and violent tactics for 
use against peaceful protest. There are a number of tools that 
exist out there to help with assessing risk factors, including 
the atrocity assessment framework developed by the Department 
of State and our own early warning project.
    Briefly, on our early warning project, we were inspired by 
the Genocide Prevention Task Force to develop the first major 
comprehensive system to prevent genocide and mass atrocities 
through launching in 2015 a state-of-the-art quantitative and 
qualitative early warning system to identify countries at risk 
of new mass killing--i.e., civilian fatalities over 1,000. We 
will share a link to that assessment so that you can see our 
latest rankings. One component of the project is the 
statistical risk assessment that ranks all the countries based 
on their risk of a new mass killing by state or non-state 
actors within a period of two years.
    We divide the world into categories of risks. The top 30 
are countries that we consider high risk, 30 to 60 are medium 
risk, and below 60 are low risk. One point to note is that all 
of the OSCE countries fall within the low-risk categories at 
this point. Our hope is that this information helps spur 
policymakers to determine where to devote scarce resources. The 
Global Fragility Act cites our risk assessment as a resource 
for the U.S. government to use in its selection of priority 
countries.
    We have the early warning. Are we actually acting on it, is 
the question that this panel begs. In regard to an assessment 
of the U.S. government's efforts thus far, the U.S. undoubtedly 
leads the world in developing the tools for atrocity 
prevention, including its assessment framework, programming 
approaches, online and in-person training for foreign service 
officers, and through its establishment of an interagency 
coordinating mechanism, now known as the Atrocity Early Warning 
Task Force.
    Few other governments in the world have this dedicated 
amount of human and financial resources to deal with this 
complex problem. That said, the full institutionalization of 
these processes and the political will to do early prevention 
work can still be improved. We are still confronted by two 
challenges.
    One significant challenge is that there continues to be 
reluctance within the Department of State, notably within 
regional bureaus, to label a country as potentially at risk. It 
can be diplomatically uncomfortable, or unacceptable to the 
country in question. Human rights concerns are then often 
minimized and put at a lower level of priority than other U.S. 
considerations. We do not believe that there needs to be an 
either/or in this particular regard. Another factor is embassy 
staff may not know what to look for in terms of warning signs, 
be overwhelmed by their existing work, or not know who to 
transmit the information about early warning to.
    We believe that it is important for there to be an improved 
and clear reporting channel from the in-country embassy to 
Washington, enhanced training in the regular use in, in-country 
staff to fully assess and report on atrocity risks. Increased 
political signaling or diplomatic demarches when countries are 
experiencing increased risk in warning signs. Greater sharing 
of intelligence on warning signs and risks with allied 
governments and with Congress. More engagement with the United 
Nations to advance analysis of preventive action, and, 
critically, tasking the intelligence community on specific 
questions when risk and warning signs are rising.
    Moving briefly to the international response, we believe 
that unfortunately, the cooperation within the transatlantic 
community is an area that is woefully underdeveloped, but where 
there are many opportunities. In 2017 we released a report that 
we will share again with all of you on how to enhance and 
strengthen atrocity prevention within the transatlantic region. 
Our starting premise is that not one government plays a 
determining role in averting and halting atrocities, and the 
challenge of preventing atrocities is not one that the United 
States can or should shoulder on its own. Preventing mass 
atrocities requires a coordinated, calibrated, and sustained 
effort by local, regional, and international actors.
    One point to perhaps draw on in regards to the OSCE, as we 
all know and as we have discussed already in this presentation, 
the OSCE has had to grapple with the risks and commission of 
mass atrocity crimes throughout its existence. More recently in 
an area that I worked on was in 2010, the response to the 
commission of ethnic cleansing in Kyrgyzstan, where you might 
recall between May and June of 2010 there were between 500 and 
2,000 ethnic Uzbeks, primarily, who were killed, over 400,000 
people displaced. It was unfortunately a glaring example of 
where there was a failure to undertake sufficient early 
warning, despite the presence of OSCE officials within the 
country and also a U.N. regional office dedicated to conflict 
prevention, tasked with monitoring that particular country.
    In the aftermath of the commission of the crimes, we saw 
the failure between the assertion of ongoing risks and the 
translation of that into early action. There was a request that 
came from the Kyrgyzstan government for assistance from the 
OSCE. In the end, what was decided was that there were going to 
be 15 police sent to help stabilize and support local 
governance officials. In the end, that never failed to--or, be 
deployed. Instead, the mission was changed into a training 
mission. It is one small example of a situation in which there 
were grave costs due to the failure to actually assess and 
anticipate early warning risks within the region, and to 
translate those risks into early action that could have saved 
lives.
    In regards to what is possible going forward, we therefore 
suggest that a key feature of U.S. engagement internationally 
on this can come through, encouraging governments and regional 
entities, including the OSCE, to develop capacity for more 
robustly investing in early warning and early action, and two, 
in building the political will. Key offices and elements within 
the OSCE that require support are the OSCE Office for 
Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, and the High 
Commissioner for National Minorities--a truly unique position 
when we think about the international architecture for atrocity 
prevention. Their day-to-day task is identifying the causes of 
ethnic tension and conflicts and helping to stem potential 
risks. Then, critically, the Conflict Prevention Center, which 
theoretically should be responsible for acting as a focal point 
for early warning on conflict but could be amended to also 
specifically look, additionally, at atrocity prevention more 
broadly.
    Outside of the OSCE, just in conclusion, the U.S. is a 
founding member of the International Atrocity Prevention 
Working Group. That includes six other likeminded countries--
Canada, Australia, Germany, the United Kingdom, Denmark, and 
Netherlands. It has been a useful group in terms of reasserting 
support for key norms that underpin atrocity prevention, but we 
feel it is critical that this group begin to--in a more 
concreted and robust manner--take specific action to jointly 
undertake early warning assessments, share that analysis, and 
craft strategies on key cases today--such as Ethiopia, the 
Uighurs in China, Burma, and Syria.
    Finally, just in conclusion, we know that if we are serious 
about preventing atrocities before they begin, we must commit 
to acting much earlier on the drivers of risk. I want to just 
commend all who are a part of this conversation today for the 
remarkable support and leadership you have shown in advancing 
the Eli Wiesel Genocide Act and also the Global Fragility Act, 
which has made real strides in helping to ensure that we are 
taking concrete steps to institutionalize in a lasting manner 
atrocity prevention. Thank you.
    Chairman Cardin: Let me thank both of you for your 
comments. I also want to acknowledge that Congressman Cohen has 
joined us. It is nice to have Congressman Cohen with us.
    Let me start with an observation. It is absolutely accurate 
that our missions in-country are reluctant to label countries 
with bad actions. That is true whether it is in the trafficking 
reports, as we list them in different tiers, our effort to get 
evaluations on how well they are dealing with fighting 
corruption, and it is also true in regards to the early signs 
of atrocities. This is a challenge that we have. The Eli Wiesel 
Atrocities Act was aimed at building up capacity within our 
different missions in State in-country to actually be trained 
to do this so that we have early warning information that has 
made available.
    I want to go to the other end for one moment, because to me 
if we do not hold actors accountable for their actions, it 
makes it more difficult for countries and actors to take 
seriously that they will be held accountable for their current 
actions. That is when we resolve conflicts, and we do that 
because we want to stop tragedies from occurring, usually the 
first item that is sacrificed is holding the bad actors 
accountable for their conduct. Currently, we have genocidal 
conditions occurring with the Uighurs in China, with the 
Rohingya population in Burma, and we are all anxious to get 
those issues resolved. Are we putting equal energy into 
documenting what has happened to hold accountable those who 
have violated international standards?
    I find all too often the politics of diplomacy that you 
were referring to, that happens in mission evaluations of what 
is happening in the country, also get involved in resolving 
conflicts, to allow accountability to be held as a lower 
priority in resolving conflicts. I would appreciate it if both 
of you would comment on how important it is for us to hold 
accountable those who are responsible for these types of 
actions so as to be able in the future to prevent--as we say, 
never again--how do you prevent never again if you do not hold 
accountable those who are responsible for the current 
atrocities?
    Professor, you can start.
    Mr. Snyder: Sure. The issue you raise, Senator, has been 
bound into genocide prevention right from the very beginning. 
The Nuremberg trials, which we like to remember and should 
remember, had their focus narrowed by politics because of the 
participation of the victorious Soviet Union. Thanks to the 
Soviet Union, the definition of genocide itself was narrowed so 
as not to include crimes of class. From the very beginning, all 
of our instruments have in some way been affected by the 
politics of who is your ally and who just won a war.
    My modest answer to this would have to do with how we 
commemorate. The few times when we actually have brought people 
to justice, I think that should be a broader part of how we 
remember these events. I think making it known, you know, that 
such-and-such person was prosecuted at Nuremberg for such-and-
such a thing should be more prominent. When we do actually 
prosecute people in the 21st century, I think that has to be 
part of the conversation so that they can become negative 
examples. That is my one modest idea.
    Chairman Cardin: Naomi.
    Ms. Kikoler: I really appreciate you raising this 
particular issue. I think, as we spoke before, when we look at 
future risks a prior history of mass atrocity crimes and 
impunity are both risk factors that contribute to the future 
commission, in part because it instills in perpetrators the 
knowledge that there is a potential that they could commit 
these crimes and not be held accountable. I have interviewed 
many perpetrators in a number of different countries who have 
explicitly stated that they committed crimes before and were 
able to get off without any form of responsibility. Those could 
be--it could start with smaller crimes. One gentleman I am 
thinking of in particular in Rwanda, was the stealing of 
cattle, and then that can escalate as a situation further 
deteriorates into the killing of individuals.
    When we talk about accountability, there are many different 
ways to understand and define accountability. I think that it 
is important to recognize that there are investments that can 
be made in fact-finding. The OSCE has, to a degree, done that. 
It remains at times far too politicized as well in terms of 
actually getting agreement to do important fact-finding. We see 
that internationally in the context of the Uighurs, where 
despite the crimes it has been impossible at this state to 
actually get an international documentation effort--a robust 
one--underway.
    We also see accountability in the form of criminal 
prosecutions. In the case of ISIS, in the case of Rohingya and 
others, we are seeing significant strides aided, in part, by 
Congress and by the U.S. government in the support of resources 
and also political support to collect material that could be 
used for prosecutions. The challenge we face and the question 
it begs is: What jurisdiction exists for those crimes to 
actually be tried and for individuals to be prosecuted? As 
Professor Snyder mentioned, there are also broader transitional 
justice efforts around memorializing. We know, especially from 
the OSCE context, how incredibly controversial, unfortunately, 
that can be, and how important the OSCE forums are for talking 
about these particular issues and finding ways to create a 
degree of common consensus on their report.
    I think it is also important for us to think about where we 
have gaps as a transatlantic community in a domestic context in 
our own atrocity prevention architecture. As I alluded to 
before, one of the gaps that the U.S. government has is that 
there is no domestic legislation that essentially criminalizes 
the commission of crimes against humanity and can help to 
prevent and ensure that the U.S. is not safe harbor to those 
who are committing crimes against humanity. Clear examples 
would be those who committed crimes in Syria, and those who are 
committing crimes against the Uighurs. This has been a 
longstanding gap at the domestic level. There are also no 
international crimes against humanity treaty.
    I put those two things forward because it is also an area 
where Congress can actually play a very critical role. You can 
enact legislation that fills that gap and is a signal to the 
world that the U.S. is taking its commitment seriously and is 
encouraging other governments to also look at their domestic 
capacity to hold perpetrators accountable and encourage them to 
enact similar legislation and steps.
    Chairman Cardin: Thank you.
    Senator Wicker.
    Senator Wicker: Thank you very much.
    I really appreciate this. It certainly brings back memories 
of things that have occurred, even during my 26 years in 
Congress. In 2015 I accompanied former President Bill Clinton 
and former Secretary of State Albright, along with Peter King 
and Jeanne Shaheen, to Srebrenica to commemorate the 20th 
anniversary of that atrocity. It is still stunning to me that 
this took place in Europe in my lifetime. In an 11-day period, 
8,000 men and boys were killed, the victims of genocide, and I 
jump from there to make some observations, and I will just let 
you comment if you would like to.
    I notice that there are reports that Kosovo is considering 
trying to bring a suit against Serbia for genocide. This might 
be done in the International Court of Justice. Senator Cardin 
and I, along with Senator McCain, were authors of the Global 
Magnitsky Act--it began as the Magnitsky Act, and then it 
became global. The point there, Ben, as you will recall, was to 
bring the sanctions to the individuals who actually caused--
have caused these events to occur. In the case of Magnitsky, it 
was not--it was not an act of genocide. It was an atrocity 
against an individual who had the audacity to speak up against 
his government. It seems to me a better policy, rather than one 
country suing a neighbor where maybe there was no 
representative government, and the atrocities were caused by 
individuals. It seems to me getting to the individuals is 
better.
    If you comment on those things, and also, was Yugoslavia 
more of a surprise than other--than other acts of genocide? It 
just seems incredible to me that it devolved so quickly into 
this ethnic cleansing and murder, which was not isolated in 
Srebrenica but is sort of--that one atrocity exemplifies what 
was going on.
    Mr. Snyder: All right. Thank you, Senator Wicker, for that 
very thoughtful set of questions. About Yugoslavia, I will just 
make three points, and perhaps Naomi will want to amplify. 
Number one, we did have a major warning sign in Yugoslavia, 
which was the collapse of a state. The collapse of a state is 
very strongly associated with ethnic cleansing. Not with 
organized, industrial-level killing, but with ethnic cleansing. 
We did have that warning.
    Those of us who are historians of the region try to make 
the case that there was a very strong second warning signal, 
which was the distortion of the history of the Second World 
War, which is something that I think still, you know, decades 
later, is incredibly important for understanding and predicting 
behavior in Eastern Europe. The Croatian state had revied 
certain symbols of the Second World War, which were frightening 
and offensive to Serbs. Serb mass media, in turn, had massively 
exaggerated the scale of crimes that Croatians had committed 
during the Second World War.
    That provocation back and forth in mass media was a 
significant warning sign before the event itself. Another thing 
Yugoslavia reminds us of is how difficult it is to decide to 
act, even when you are at the moment when "never again" is on 
everyone's tongue. We had satellite data, right? We had the 
kind of data for that crime that we had not had before. Still 
we found it difficult to act.
    I would answer your question, I think, in the spirit that 
you asked it. I very much agree that prosecution cannot be the 
only way that one targets individuals. It is just too difficult 
to imagine you can prosecute individuals. In what venue? In 
what forum? Are they still going to be alive? How do you 
capture them? There are at least two other ways, which I think 
you have already suggested, that can matter.
    One is reputational, that there is--that there is an 
organized stigma that attaches to this that you know that is 
going to be attached to you, and to your family, and to your 
name forever. The second, which you suggested, is financial, 
which I believe would matter to a number of, if not heads of 
state, important figures around the OSCE. In addition to the 
prosecutorial, reputational, and financial.
    Ms. Kikoler: I agree with everything that Professor Snyder 
has said. I think that, you know, one of the challenges is that 
in hindsight we can see a lot of warning signs that often go 
unnoticed. Part of what we are working to try to do--and it is 
not exactly a--you know, to talk about institutionalizing 
prevention usually puts a lot of people to sleep, 
unfortunately. What we are trying to say is actually learning 
the lessons of never again. You need to make it rote so that 
people are looking for these warning signs.
    As we advance our research and understanding of what they 
are, we have to also develop muscle memory to, when we see 
them, act quickly. If you do not force that within institutions 
like the OSCE, if you do not come together, for example, as the 
OSCE and actually do a statement on the commitment of the 
region to genocide prevention--something that does not exist. 
The closest that has come--that the OSCE has come has been in 
the assertion of the importance of conflict prevention, 
Holocaust remembrance, and promotion of human rights.
    Under chapter seven of the Final Act, you have ample room 
there to actually, as a community, come together and actually 
issue a statement, a declaration, similar to what President 
Obama did. That it is in the core interests of the OSCE to 
prevent atrocity crimes, to prevent Srebrenica from happening 
again, to prevent the crimes in Kyrgyzstan from happening 
again. I could go at length on the challenges that exist around 
individual perpetrators, but I wholly agree with the assertion 
that you made also Professor Snyder on their importance.
    It can be challenging, but we have an array of tools that 
exist--including targeted sanctions--that are increasingly 
being used in a sophisticated matter. We also have cases that 
we can point to where they can be impractical, but we have to 
always recognize that not all situations are alike. No one tool 
can have the same impact in each case. We really have to have a 
strong contextual analysis to understand how we can influence 
individual perpetrators. You have to have a much more concerted 
effort to evaluate all possible policy tools--be it 
prosecutions, targeted sanctions, naming, and shaming--to 
determine what is right in a particular situation.
    Senator Wicker: Let me just follow up briefly. Just--I know 
I am way over my time--are both of you surprised at the lack of 
international attention--and attention in our mainstream 
media--to the plight of the Uighurs?
    Mr. Snyder: I am not surprised by it, Senator, because 
historically the mainstream media--to use your term--has 
generally not been attentive to problems like this. The 
mainstream media did not do a particularly good job with Soviet 
crimes in the 1930s. It did a better job than people think but 
not a very good job, with the Holocaust. We have--we have--it 
is been hard for us to have a language about these kinds of 
crimes. With China in particular, we are now dealing with--we 
are dealing with something which is a little bit different, 
which is a huge economic power which people are afraid to 
offend.
    We are also dealing, Senator, I think, with a moment in 
history--despite Naomi's eloquence in her use of this language 
--a moment in history where the old concepts, things like the 
party state or Leninism, no longer have the kind of resonance 
that they once did. I think we lack the language to describe 
what is happening. Anyone who wants to say this is a 
concentration camp or--to use another told term which is 
appropriate--or this is--this is ethnic or racist 
discrimination, faces up to the fact that these terms are no 
longer as resonate as they once were because we lack the 
history. Also, they are going to face a very powerful response 
from the Chinese side, which is a novelty, I think. I take your 
point. I am not surprised by it, but I am outraged by it.
    Ms. Kikoler: Maybe just kind of amend a little bit your 
comment, because I think one of the things that we know all too 
well is that you can have considerable media attention and 
still see inaction by policymakers. There is not necessarily a 
direct coalition between action and attention, but we know that 
considerable attention does help raise the cost, at times, of 
inaction for particular actors. I would say one of the problems 
has been in how the media talks about China is that we have 
failed for a very long time to, on a regular basis, clearly 
articulate what they are, which is an entity that has been 
complicit, enabled, and committed mass atrocity crimes, 
including genocide, for a very long time.
    I think the recent attention, including the sharing of 
personal narratives, has helped to humanize for many around the 
world the experience of the Uighurs. That is important because 
as we know from the lessons of the Holocaust, people have a 
hard time coming to terms with the notion that six million Jews 
were killed as a result of their identity. I commend a number 
of the journalists who have been trying to, in a dogged way, 
share their individual stories. Where my outrage comes is 
Uighurs should not have to go before the camera, imperil their 
lives, and their loved ones lives, to demand action from the 
international community.
    Governments know and have known for a long time; what China 
has been doing and is capable of doing. It is incumbent on 
governments to change how they respond. What outrages me is 
that China has a seat at the table, has increasingly been very 
deft in how it has maneuvered within the United Nations to 
minimize criticism, how it has maneuvered even within OSCE 
member states to make it less likely that the OSCE can speak 
collectively on a particular issue. Of course, there are strong 
divides within the OSCE that have increasingly emerged.
    That is what outrages me, that we do not see fact-finding 
missions that are demanding access to China right now. That we 
do not see a coordinated effort to talk about how to stop the 
atrocities, and seeking access is only one point. What we are 
seeking is actually for these facilities to be closed, for 
people to be released, for people to be able to live their 
lives. I really appreciate your point. I have just 
unfortunately been in a situation all too often where I have 
had ambassadors say: Can't you get an op-ed before the New York 
Times on the Central African Republic, on Kyrgyzstan?
    I will tell you, last night I was reading all of the op-eds 
that I wrote on Kyrgyzstan. I was, you know, reflecting 
candidly on whether or not it had helped, because our big push 
was to get 52 OSCE police officers sent to the country. That 
was a number written on the back of a napkin within a U.N. 
meeting because we all knew that more needed to be done and 
that was the minimum that we thought could happen. You know, 
unfortunately, we bring immense humility to this conversation 
and are, you know, very hopeful that through the learnings that 
we are continuing to undertake, we can help compel more policy 
not just attention, but also the action that you are 
suggesting.
    Mr. Snyder: Can I jump in, because I want to agree with 
Naomi and just repeat my point about international reporting. 
We are not the powerhouse in international reporting that we 
were in the 1970s or 1980s. When Communism fell, there were 
American reporters in many of the relevant capitals. On 
Tiananmen Square, we had--we had--we had reporters. We do not 
have that in the same way now, and that means that we are more 
vulnerable to other countries public relations than we were 40 
years ago. That puts us on the back foot in genocide 
prevention, unfortunately.
    I want to also agree with the point that we--there has to 
be a face on this. The face is often historical. There is--the 
Chinese Communist Party and People's Republic of China has 
undertaken a number of ethnic actions, but also other episodes 
of mass killing which are simply not known. I mean, that tens 
of millions of Chinese citizens were killed between 1958 and 
1962 in a famine is just not very well known. That hundreds of 
thousands of Chinese died in the terror of the Cultural 
Revolution is just not well known. I tend to think that it is 
hard for us to make the point about the present unless we--
unless we have some historical memory, which is pushed closer 
to the center of the conversation.
    Chairman Cardin: Very troubling comments and response. I 
will point out that when we had our challenges with torture in 
America, it was the reporting and photographs that caused 
Congress to take action. Unless you can get it before the 
public, unless you can have the facts, the numbers do not--are 
not powerful. The individual stories are powerful, and that is 
where the absence of reporting becomes so critically important. 
Very, very important points.
    We have been joined by Congressman Veasey. Nice to have you 
with us. I am going to go next to Congressman Cohen and then 
Senator Smith.
    Congressman Cohen, I think you are on mute. There you go.

    STATEMENT OF STEVE COHEN, CO-CHAIRMAN, U.S. HOUSE, FROM 
                           TENNESSEE

    Co-Chairman Cohen: I am here. Thank you. Thank you, 
Senator.
    Thank you for the testimony. It has been very edifying. You 
said that--well, first, several questions. First, the Uighurs 
might be the most imminent problem we have got as far as mass 
terrorism genocide, or atrocity, and if I am wrong, tell me. 
Where are the other places you have seen signs that we should 
be on the alert for?
    Ms. Kikoler: I am happy to quickly speak to that, and I am 
sure Professor Snyder will have other comments as well. We will 
share with you our latest ranking of countries where we are 
concerned about the potential risk of mass killing. We are 
extremely concerned as a center about risks in Ethiopia. In 
Cameroon, we will be releasing a report on some of the early 
warning signs there too. The Uighurs. We continue to be very 
concerned about the plight of the Rohingya. As you will see 
from our early warning signs, there are a number of countries 
where there is the potential risk for mass killing over the 
next two-year period. They range from countries like Pakistan 
and Afghanistan to the countries that I mentioned.
    I think the plight of the Uighurs is one that really merits 
very serious engagement. All of them do. I think the unique 
challenges, as has been mentioned before, of confronting a P5 
power. An entity like China, is something that really puts a 
lot of the theories, tools, and approaches to atrocity 
prevention to the test. I think that it is really going to be 
the challenge of the next few years to try to figure out how we 
can address a perpetrator of that scale and that nature.
    Mr. Snyder: Congressman Cohen, I would just add that I am 
concerned about a scenario involving two OSCE members this 
summer, where the Zapad maneuvers of the combined Russian and 
Belarusian armed forces take place three days before a 
parliamentary election in Russia, in which President Putin has 
commanded his party to win by supermajority. I am concerned 
about the possibility of some kind of trick there, something 
that happens while Russian forces are active in Belarus, and 
about the subsequent persecution of people who define 
themselves as Belarusians as opposed to members of some kind of 
emerging Russian-Belarusian state. I have written five articles 
about that in the last few years, which I would be happy to 
send along if this is of interest.
    Co-Chairman Cohen: I would appreciate you doing that, 
Professor Snyder. I have been to Belarus twice, and you know, 
it was interesting, to go to the Patriotic War Museum and to 
tour around, and they honor the victims of World War II, but 
Lukashenko seemed to be sparing in his criticism of the Jewish 
victims. There are a couple of Holocaust--Jewish sites, the 
ghetto in Minsk and there is a couple of memorials. The big 
thing they just built out a-ways is a memorial to the victims 
of Nazism is very limited on the Jewish victims. I have written 
him, and I talked to him about it, but gotten nowhere. It is 
concerning.
    Is there anywhere--a lot of what you describe as signs of 
potential mass atrocities is authoritarianism, its non-
acceptance of the historical past. We see that in Europe with 
Hungary and Poland, and we see it with Russia, and not so 
much--I guess with Russia, but more with Hungary, Poland, and 
Ukraine, and denial of the Holocaust. Yet, you say everything 
is kind of low on the level in Europe. You are not concerned 
about--and there is not necessarily an identified ethnic group 
that is on the--that is in the scope of the vision or Orban or 
the Polish leadership. Is there concern--do you have any 
concerns about Poland and Hungary and where they are going?
    Ms. Kikoler: My colleagues in the museum who work on 
Holocaust denial and anti-Semitism have a lot to say in this 
regard because we are very concerned. They are working very 
hard. I would be happy to put your office directly in touch 
with them to talk about the specifics of those particular 
countries. I will only say that in terms of the risk of mass 
killing that I was talking about before, the types of crimes 
that we are looking at--crimes like genocide--are very rare 
occurrences. We have a threshold of 1,000 civilians that are 
killed a year, in terms of that is the risk that we are looking 
for.
    I do not in any way want to suggest that because a country 
is low risk there should not be concerted attention. There 
should be. It is possible for countries to move up or down 
within a ranking based on developments that occur within a 
given country. What we hope is that the existence of certain 
risk factors will elicit a consideration to do a deeper dive, 
to understand the dynamics. Because there might be dynamics at 
play that you have highlighted that merit a much stronger 
engagement from a prevention perspective.
    We do not in any way want to suggest that when there are 
risk factors, that a country is ranked low, you should not in 
any way be concerned. We hope that elicits more consideration. 
We do, with our system, want to be clear that because a country 
is on it--including a high-risk space--it does not mean that we 
will automatically see mass killing occur. It is a bit of a 
technical system. We are very happy to give a much deeper 
explanation for you and others who are interested in our early 
warning system.
    Co-Chairman Cohen: Did either of you see--and that will be 
my last question. My time is about up. I see my friend Senator 
Wicker is not with us, which is probably just as well. I love 
Roger and I would not want to get him too upset. Did any of you 
see the denial of the existence of an insurrection, which we 
have seen in our own country? Hey, Roger. [Laughter.] The 
denial of the existence of an insurrection on January 6, as 
something we should be very concerned about.
    Mr. Snyder: I am happy to roll with that one. Let me--let 
me frame it as something else, if I could, Representative 
Cohen. The Holocaust is important not just in its own right, 
but because it gives us a language of general human rights. It 
gives us a language that goes beyond Hungary, Poland, Belarus, 
Russia, or America. It is also important as a touchstone for 
these kinds of issues as an early warning sign of reversal of 
victimhood. Often the person who is about to do something 
terrible first decides that they are the victim. When countries 
start to say that the Holocaust was not that important, or 
maybe there were more important victims than the Jews, or so 
on, I understand that as the beginning of that kind of flip. 
For me, that is something that I look for.
    With--you know, with events in the United States of 
America, it strikes me that regardless of, you know, what 
political party you happen to favor or represent, it is very 
important to get the question of who the victim was right. When 
I look at the history of the United States of America and the 
history of voting rights, I do not find that to be 
controversial. Uncontroversial, the victim in our history when 
it comes to voting rights is not actually Republicans in 2020. 
It is actually African Americans since 1877, and that gives us 
a place to start when we--when we consider the events, and when 
we ask: Who was really the victim and who was really not the 
victim?
    When you get that story wrong and you claim to be the 
victim when you are not, and then you write it into 
institutions, you are taking a step towards authoritarianism. 
When I--when I look upon American voter restriction, that is 
how I think about it. That if you are going to begin from a 
step where you have got the facts wrong and you are flipping 
the victimhood, and you build institutions on that basis, then 
you are taking a step which is--which is quite dangerous. That 
is my view, which has to do not with the United States. It has 
to do with how I understand victimhood generally, on the basis 
of the kind of principles that I hope we all take for granted.
    Co-Chairman Cohen: Thank you.
    I yield back the balance of my time.
    Chairman Cardin: Senator Smith.
    Senator Smith: Thank you, Senator Cardin. Again, thank you, 
Senator Wicker. Thanks so much to our panelists--Professor 
Snyder and Ms. Kikoler, for being with us today.
    I have a question that relates to the COVID pandemic. I am 
going to direct this first to you, Ms. Kikoler. The COVID-19 
pandemic and the subsequent economic fallout from that 
pandemic--I am thinking globally here, of course--has really 
amplified the structural inequities that we have globally 
around health care, economic opportunity, social benefits, 
human rights. My question is, how are we, or are we, seeing 
malign actors exploiting the pandemic to advance undemocratic 
agendas or to--maybe a way--based on your testimony maybe 
another way of asking this is: Is this creating new sets of 
early warning signals that would fit into the system that you 
discussed in your testimony?
    Ms. Kikoler: Thank you so much for that question. It is 
exactly something that we have been tackling with this past 
year. We have been undertaking a project that looks at the 
future of mass atrocities, and one of the thematic focuses has 
been on COVID and pandemics. Unfortunately, we have seen this 
period used as a way to dehumanize others, and I am sure 
Professor Snyder can speak at this to more length. In 
particular, we are very concerned about, for example, the 
Rohingya in IDP camps in Bangladesh. There has been at times an 
effort to portray them as being those who spread COVID. We 
often find in instances where particular communities are being 
targeted, often minority communities, they are regarded as 
being vectors for the spread of disease. There is some 
historical kind of analogies there too.
    We have also seen increased use of surveillance and data, 
and have concerns about the overstretch of that and, again, 
what the impact could be for communities that are at risk. 
Under the auspices of providing health care and trying to 
monitor, there have been considerable changes in terms of how 
communities and individuals are being tracked. I think another 
element that we are concerned about is the understandable 
international domestic focus on addressing the focus has, to a 
degree, diverted attention from some of the very pressing 
ongoing threats--be they threats of conflict, or threats of 
atrocity. We know that it is very hard to sustain, in the best 
of times, a committed, concerted commitment to atrocity 
prevention.
    In this moment where we are seeing economic decline, less 
willingness--this was already happening prior to COVID--of 
governments to invest in development and the type of upstream 
prevention that we are talking about, we are also tracking what 
that impact might be in terms of the response to atrocities 
either occurring or in a prevention phase. There are a number 
of others, but I think those are some of the most kind of 
glaring examples at this particular point. It is exacerbated 
trends that were already underway. I think Professor Snyder, I 
am sure, has a number of comments in this regard.
    Senator Smith: Yes, Professor Snyder, I am really 
interested in your take on this too. I was interested in your 
testimony how you talked about how bad actors can use time and 
urgency to exacerbate their--you know, the bad things that can 
happen. You used climate as an example of something that could 
create a sense of urgency, but I am curious to know how you 
would apply that kind of thinking to what is going on with 
COVID.
    You are muted, Professor Snyder.
    Mr. Snyder: I mean, with climate I am making two kinds of 
points. The first is that we already have examples--whether it 
is Rwanda, Sudan, or Syria--where climate-associated problems 
like drought are one of the factors and probably a necessary 
condition--they are not the only factor, but they are one of 
the factors which had led us to these late 20th century and 
early 21st century disasters.
    The second point I am making is a historical one about 
Hitler in particular, where Hitler's whole view of the world 
was that resources are limited, only the strong survive, and 
you have to act first. We are in an emergency, and that kind of 
thinking always has a certain kind of attraction. The 
attraction's, unfortunately, greater when the resource 
constraints are real. Those of us who have lived in the West, 
you know, from the 1950s to the 2010s, let us say, have had 
lives that did not actually face the kinds of resource 
constraints that humanity faced into the first half of the 20th 
century. We forget a little bit how resonant that kind of 
appeal could be, right? My point is that if we allow climate 
change to become a disaster, real and perceived, that then will 
set off unpredictable political combinations.
    I think COVID's a little bit different because I think 
what--and I have very little to add--I think what COVID has 
done is it has, again just repeating, it has allowed people to 
double down on forms of discrimination which already existed. 
Disease is something which is--which is human, right? We tend 
to deny it and we tend to push it off onto the other. The only 
little point that I would add, little thing which worries me--
and it has only an amplification--is that China is, of course, 
making the argument that it had nothing to do with COVID, and 
it solved COVID, and therefore authoritarian regimes are 
actually better than those messy democracies. Which for me is 
an argument as to why the United States should be out front in 
2021 with some kind of vaccination foreign policy, which I 
think we have the resources to carry out.
    Senator Smith: Thank you very much. I think that is an 
excellent point, and as we think about what China is doing with 
the Uighurs in a complete--you know, those human rights 
atrocities that we see on the one hand. Then on the other hand 
the work that it is trying to do to step into a potential 
vacuum, you know, globally. I worry a lot about how COVID is 
exacerbating that also. I appreciate your comments.
    Thank you very much, Senator Cardin.
    Chairman Cardin: Thank you, Senator Smith.
    Congressman Veasey.

      STATEMENT OF MARC A. VEASEY, U.S. HOUSE, FROM TEXAS

    Representative Veasey: Thank you very much, Senator Cardin.
    I wanted to ask Professor Snyder, because I think that he 
really touched on a very important, you know, point when he 
talked about establishing the victim when it comes to voting 
rights, for instance, here in the United States. For countries 
to do that successfully with the large population that is very 
resistant to unpacking that and actually putting that forward, 
how do you go about doing that? I mean, like, for instance, in 
the United States instead of establishing who the victim is you 
will notice that American politicians here instead to choose to 
assuage guilt, right?
    Like that is usually the knee-jerk, is to--is to--you know, 
and the case now, unfortunately, is it--is to make other people 
that are not the victims the victims, but also, to try to 
assuage guilt and say we just need to move on. What sort of a 
blueprint would you give to countries on--when the people 
themselves are hesitant? I think that in some countries where 
there are human rights violations the people there would 
actually welcome democracy and would actually welcome freedoms. 
In the case of constituencies really, you know, accepting the 
truth behind all these things, that there are still a large 
number of people here in the United States that just do not 
want to accept it. It is like they are giving up something. It 
is almost like they are giving up something very precious to 
them by admitting who really is the victim.
    Mr. Snyder: Okay. Thank you for that wonderful question 
about U.S. history, which--it gets to the heart of something 
very important and dynamic which is present in the U.S., but 
not only, which is that racism or discriminatory attitudes are 
not only about the obvious victim. They are also about setting 
up control within, let us call it, the majority population, 
right? If I--if I--to stay in the U.S., if I can convince my 
fellow white Americans that Black people are the problem, I 
have got a form of politics that might take me a long way. It 
will allow me to do things to my fellow white Americans, in 
fact. That is kind of the secret to--I think, to racism in the 
U.S.
    The only way to get around it is to make the argument, 
which I think is true, which is that would--we are all actually 
better off if we do not have this kind of thing. That when we 
limit voting rights, for example, we are not just hurting other 
people and carrying out injustice, we are also hurting the 
country's future. We are getting ourselves into a kind of 
polarization which limits not--which does not just directly 
hurt African Americans, it limits white people. It makes white 
people different. It makes white people more provincial. It 
makes white people less able to think about the future.
    You ask how to get around this? You know, my--I mean, when 
I look at countries that have been successful--like, for 
example, West Germany after the Second World War--it is that 
they beat the history into the ground, right? The Germans talk 
so much about history that even I, as a historian, find it 
sometimes over the top. You have to hand it to them, they have 
actually succeeded, and we, in the U.S.--you hit the nail on 
the head. We like to move on, and that is a phrase which upsets 
historians, because if you just move on the history always 
comes back, it comes back, it comes back. You know, before you 
know it, somebody--before you know it, somebody's going to be 
talking about the 1877 compromise as a good thing unless you 
know the history, right? Unless you know the history.
    I think we are at a crucial point in American history where 
the best thing we can do is get the history right. If we get 
the history right, then it does not look like I am losing 
something as a white person. It looks like, oh, we have not 
ever quite built that democratic republic that we have been 
talking about for so long, and if we build that democratic 
republic, it would actually be better for everybody. That is 
the kind of look backward and forward that I think we need. You 
know, it is--but this is a--you know, this is a big subject.
    It is, like, it is something where we can learn from abroad 
because other--you know, other countries have actually done 
better at looking at history and saying: Hey, it is not just 
about how we made others victims. It is about how in making 
others victims we got the country off on the wrong track. 
Germany's the classic example, right? The 20th century should 
have belonged to Germany. Why did it belong to us? Because they 
messed it up. Because they--you know, they did terrible things. 
Those terrible things were not just to the Jews and the Slavs. 
Those terrible things were--held back Germany from being the 
world power that it should have been.
    I think in the 21st century we are kind of--you know, with 
all appropriate qualifications--I think we are kind of at that 
same moment. Is this going to be our century where we gather 
ourselves together on the basis of understanding the past? Or 
are we just going to blow our chance? Are we going to let it be 
somebody else's century?
    Representative Veasey: No, that is amazing. Wanting to 
switch gears here quickly on another point that you made a 
second ago, you talked about the media. Is what is happening 
right now with the media not being able to cover some of the, 
you know, atrocities that are taking place and some of the 
moves by these dictators--some of the brutal moves by these 
dictators, is it a--is it a lack of resources because that 
media has changed so much in regards to advertising and 
profitability? Or is it because these countries have put up 
barriers to now allowing people from the media to come in?
    Mr. Snyder: I think Ms. Kikoler will have things to say 
about this. I would say number one, it is a--it is a change in 
the structure of American print media, where we only cover 
national news. We do not cover local news and we do not cover 
international news. We only do national news, and that has been 
poison for us in a lot of ways because it means that we are 
all--we get all polarized. Like, we can agree--we can agree 
about things about China. We can also agree about things in, 
you know, Clinton County, Ohio. We do not always agree about 
national things.
    T he second thing which has happened is you do not just 
have traditional censorship. You have active disinformation 
campaigns which are electronic. Russia and increasingly China 
are forming the story before it ever actually gets reported. 
This means that, for folks on both sides of the aisle who are 
concerned about social media and the power of social media, 
this is one more reason to be concerned that it is much easier 
to use social media to get a polarizing story out there which 
makes it look like there should be a conflict than it is to use 
social media to broadcast important facts on the ground about 
an oncoming atrocity. Whatever we can do to change that 
situation we should be trying to do.
    Representative Veasey: Ms. Kikoler?
    Ms. Kikoler: It is a great question. Just building on what 
Senator Wicker had said before, you know if you have a theory 
of change--which was articulated earlier--that greater 
attention helps to compel action. We do believe that is an 
important component of action. Then we need to facilitate ways 
to actually get the information out of hard-to-reach areas. I 
think that there are, as you alluded to, a number of 
impediments. One is emerging kind of structural challenges, and 
you talked about the cost.
    There is, from the perspective of--if we were talking to, 
you know, someone who wanted to open up a bureau in, let us 
say, Dakar. There are challenges around kind of the cost of 
doing that. There are security challenges that are increasingly 
being raised from the perspective of media outlets. There are 
ways around that, there are local stringers that are doing 
remarkable work and putting their lives on the line to tell 
stories. We can work more to ensure that their voices are being 
heard. Professor Snyder talked before about the importance of 
supporting outlets like Voice of America and other kind of 
entities that help to get information both into hard-to-reach 
places and out of hard-to-reach places.
    There is also, though, just the challenge, as you noted, of 
access. There are parts of the world that we have a very hard 
time either physically gaining access--Xinjiang, in terms of 
being able to go in an independent and objective way is one 
example within China. South Kordofan in Sudan is another, parts 
of the Central African Republic. What that means is that we are 
not able to pull out the types of images that help to galvanize 
attention. Is there a way to, though, do that in a different 
manner? Yes. I would argue that when the U.S. government 
chooses to declassify satellite imagery that shows the scale 
and nature of attacks, or images that came out around the 
construction of new centers where Uighurs are being detained, 
tortured, and held--that helps to also humanize the experience 
and can be used to galvanize.
    There are different ways that we can be creative about the 
storytelling component. We just have to invest within it. We 
also have to continue to work, though, on combatting compassion 
fatigue. When we reach out as an institution to journalists 
there is often questions about the, well, what can be done? 
This seems hopeless. Many of you have seen the Caesar photos 
that we house at the museum on Syria. What has been really 
fascinating is that it does galvanize some. There is others, 
unfortunately, it has the adverse response of leaving them 
wondering if anything can actually be done. It is incumbent on 
all of us to actually define then what the policy actions 
should be when we do actually have the information that has 
been released shared with us.
    I would say local--supporting local NGOs is a final, 
critical component to this because many of them are doing the 
work on the ground. They have access to the information, the 
data, the stories. All of the investment that goes into civil 
society, when it comes to documentation, fact-finding, and 
human rights promotion, has the added benefit of helping to 
make the case in moments when we cannot have the presence of 
reporters and others.
    Representative Veasey: Thank you very much. Professor 
Snyder, thank you for touching on the nationalization of 
politics. I do think for so many of these issues that it is 
really bad.
    Senator Cardin, I yield back to you. Thank you.
    Chairman Cardin: Thank you.
    I want to give each of you an opportunity to give us some 
advice in regards to the Eli Wiesel Act as to whether there 
needs to be attention paid by Congress in the implementation of 
that act that is not being adequately done today, or whether 
there is needs for changes in the congressional action. You 
have already mentioned the--making it a crime to violate the 
international human rights standards on atrocities. I got that 
recommendation. Are there other suggested recommendations of a 
legislative change or more aggressive oversight by Congress on 
the implementation of the Atrocities Prevention Act?
    Ms. Kikoler: Professor Snyder, I am happy to go first, if 
you are comfortable. Just very briefly, I really appreciate 
that question and your and others leadership on the Eli Wiesel 
Genocide and Atrocity Prevention Act. There were some really 
important strides that were made in introducing that 
legislation.
    I think a key opportunity right now is that when the next 
report is released having a hearing to discuss the report and 
specifically asking the Department of State to come and report 
on what are the prevention strategies that have been 
established to address the risks that we hope are going to be 
articulated for given states in the report. Without that kind 
of accountability and transparency role by Congress--we need 
that level of pressure to be able to actually compel a whole-
of-system interagency response to the risks. Such a hearing 
would also help to empower civil society to be able to assist 
in understanding what are the countries that are perceived at 
risk.
    A second component that we continue to think is very 
important is similarly Congress requesting annual briefings 
from the intel community on countries that they believe to be 
at risk of genocide and other mass atrocities. Now if there are 
security considerations that do not have to be a public 
hearing, but we think, again, in the process of trying to make 
these types of responses rote and in Congress fulfilling its 
accountability and transparency role, this is a very important 
thing that can be done.
    The inclusion of training for countries that are deemed at 
risk for foreign service officers is very important. We think 
that there should be expanded training for U.S. government 
officials to understand what the early warning signs are, what 
atrocity prevention tools are, and that is something that can 
be further mandated through future legislation. You know, just 
in short three top would be to actually ask the administration 
to come before Congress and explain what they are doing to 
respond from a prevention perspective to countries at risk, 
intel briefings each year annually that talk specifically about 
the risk of genocide and mass atrocities, and then expanded 
training are just three very top ones. We would be happy--and 
in the testimony there is additional recommendations as well.
    Mr. Snyder: Forgive me if this is--if this is actually in 
the act. I am probably not as up on it as I should be. The one 
thing that struck me, Senator Cardin, was the journalists. 
There was--there was one reporter who wrote about the famine in 
Ukraine in 1933 under his own name--just one. One is more than 
zero. His name was Gareth Jones.
    What about--what about an award for American journalists--
an annual award for American journalists who write about 
genocide or genocide prevention? What about a fellowship which 
guarantees that young American journalists who have an interest 
in going to countries that are identified as being at risk--
what about an annual fellowship for 10 of those people? 
Something like that I think would probably not add very much 
cost but might make a difference.
    Ms. Kikoler: May I very briefly just build on what 
Professor Snyder said, because I think we share a brain on this 
one. I think the creation of a Jan Karski award or fellowship, 
as you just mentioned, would be a remarkable contribution that 
could be made to advancing the gathering of information and 
awareness raising. I would expand it beyond our traditional 
conception of journalists today because many of those who are 
doing the hard work and the storytelling include human rights 
defenders. They include those who might be dissenters or 
defectors from regimes that are committing these particular 
crimes. They have unique vulnerabilities and threats to their 
wellbeing.
    I would just say that because of the evolution of the way 
in which governments restrict access, as was mentioned earlier, 
and the challenges of actually reporters telling these stories, 
something along that kind of spirit of Jan Karski, or the 
individual that you just mentioned, Professor Snyder, I think 
would be a welcome addition. It is something we have been 
exploring at the museum.
    Chairman Cardin: Excellent suggestions. I frequently use 
trafficking as a model, because I do think that the U.S. 
leadership in dealing with trafficking offered global hope that 
we are really dealing with modern-day slavery. As you know, 
when the annual report is released we do have a lot of 
publicity around it, including at the State Department, and the 
awards that are associated with the Trafficking in Persons 
Report. We have hearings in Congress. It is brought up at many 
of the international forums. We really made a commitment--not 
that we solved the problem, but we really are working on 
solving the problem. I think the same type of effort needs to 
be made on atrocity prevention. I think these are all really 
good suggestions.
    I think, Professor, your comment about history is so right 
on. We really do learn from history, but you have to have 
accurate history. Your comparison of what is going on in 
Germany today versus what, for example, is going on in Hungary 
is--what a contrast. You know, the culpability during World War 
II was--you know, Germany was the center. Yet, they take 
responsibility. Hungary, which was a participant, has denied 
its role. It is an interesting comparison.
    I would also point out NGOs, which you have mentioned, 
their role in so many countries have been marginalized. We 
really have to speak out about civil society. It is not only 
reporters that are not getting access or do not have the 
resources to report. It is the NGO's ability to freely act in 
countries that have been compromised that do not get us the 
information that we need that is important. I think all of that 
really feeds into it--identifying the victim, is absolutely 
right on target. I agree with you. We have to recognize who has 
really been victimized by these activities, and dealing with 
timely reporting. All this is critically important.
    Our responsibility also is to make this issue--atrocity 
prevention, genocide prevention--a priority in foreign policy. 
Quite frankly, we have been fighting to make human rights a 
priority in foreign policy. It is not easy. [Laughs.] I mean, 
you are talking about issues on arms control, or security 
cooperation, or air rights, or economic issues, these issues 
many times get pushed to the side. I am encouraged by the 
language of the Biden administration as to making these issues 
important. I have not heard about atrocity prevention, and 
genocide prevention. I do think we need to make this a priority 
within our foreign policy, and for U.S. global leadership. It 
is critically important.
    Your comments have been extremely helpful. What a way for 
our commission to get started. Not that we are encouraged by 
what you said, but we find it very helpful in us trying to 
carry out our responsibilities as members of the Helsinki 
Commission. With that, if Senator Wicker or Congressman Cohen 
or Congressman Veasey have any final comments? If not--we are 
okay?
    Co-Chairman Cohen: Simply thank you.
    Chairman Cardin: Let me--
    Representative Veasey: Absolutely wonderful.
    Chairman Cardin: Let me again add my thanks on behalf of 
the Helsinki Commission. With that the hearing will come to an 
end, but the issue will--we will move forward on the 
recommendations that you made.
    Thank you all very much for your participation.
    Ms. Kikoler: Thank you, all.
    Mr. Snyder: Thank you very much.
    [Whereupon, at 11:04 a.m., the hearing ended.]
      
 
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