[House Hearing, 117 Congress]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]






 
                      HOW THE AMERICAN RESCUE PLAN

                    SAVED LIVES AND THE U.S. ECONOMY

=======================================================================

                                HEARING

                               before the

                        COMMITTEE ON THE BUDGET
                        HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

                    ONE HUNDRED SEVENTEENTH CONGRESS

                             SECOND SESSION

                               __________

            HEARING HELD IN WASHINGTON, D.C., JUNE 14, 2022

                               __________

                           Serial No. 117-13

                               __________

           Printed for the use of the Committee on the Budget
           
           
           
 [GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]          
           


                       Available on the Internet:
                            www.govinfo.gov
                            
                            ______

             U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE 
48-270                 WASHINGTON : 2022                            
                            
                            
                            
                            
                            
                        COMMITTEE ON THE BUDGET

                  JOHN A. YARMUTH, Kentucky, Chairman
HAKEEM S. JEFFRIES, New York         JASON SMITH, Missouri,
BRIAN HIGGINS, New York                Ranking Member
BRENDAN F. BOYLE, Pennsylvania,      TRENT KELLY, Mississippi
  Vice Chairman                      TOM McCLINTOCK, California
LLOYD DOGGETT, Texas                 GLENN GROTHMAN, Wisconsin
DAVID E. PRICE, North Carolina       LLOYD SMUCKER, Pennsylvania
JANICE D. SCHAKOWSKY, Illinois       CHRIS JACOBS, New York
DANIEL T. KILDEE, Michigan           MICHAEL BURGESS, Texas
JOSEPH D. MORELLE, New York          BUDDY CARTER, Georgia
STEVEN HORSFORD, Nevada              BEN CLINE, Virginia
BARBARA LEE, California              LAUREN BOEBERT, Colorado
JUDY CHU, California                 BYRON DONALDS, Florida
STACEY E. PLASKETT, Virgin Islands   RANDY FEENSTRA, Iowa
JENNIFER WEXTON, Virginia            BOB GOOD, Virginia
ROBERT C. ``BOBBY'' SCOTT, Virginia  ASHLEY HINSON, Iowa
SHEILA JACKSON LEE, Texas            JAY OBERNOLTE, California
JIM COOPER, Tennessee                MIKE CAREY, Ohio
ALBIO SIRES, New Jersey
SCOTT H. PETERS, California
SETH MOULTON, Massachusetts
PRAMILA JAYAPAL, Washington

                           Professional Staff

                     Diana Meredith, Staff Director
                  Mark Roman, Minority Staff Director
                                CONTENTS

                                                                   Page
Hearing held in Washington, D.C., June 14, 2022..................     1

    Hon. John A. Yarmuth, Chairman, Committee on the Budget......     1
        Prepared statement of....................................     4
        Letter submitted for the record..........................   132
        Letter submitted for the record..........................   135
    Hon. Jason Smith, Ranking Member, Committee on the Budget....     7
        Letter submitted for the record..........................     8
        Prepared statement of....................................    12
    Julia Coronado, Founder and President Macropolicy 
      Perspectives...............................................    15
        Prepared statement of....................................    17
    Vince Williams, Mayor, Union City, Georgia and President, 
      National League of Cities..................................    22
        Prepared statement of....................................    24
    Sharon Parrott, President, Center on Budget and Policy 
      Priorities.................................................    35
        Prepared statement of....................................    37
    Stephen Moore, Chair, Save America Coalition, America First 
      Policy Institute, and Distinguished Fellow in Economics, 
      Heritage Foundation........................................    64
        Prepared statement of....................................    66
    Hon. Sheila Jackson Lee, Member, Committee on the Budget, 
      document submitted for the record..........................    89
    Hon. Lloyd Smucker, Member, Committee on the Budget, letter 
      submitted for the record...................................    98
    Questions submitted for the record...........................   146
    Answers submitted for the record.............................   147


                      HOW THE AMERICAN RESCUE PLAN

                    SAVED LIVES AND THE U.S. ECONOMY

                              ----------                              


                         TUESDAY, JUNE 14, 2022

                           House of Representatives
                                    Committee on the Budget
                                                    Washington, DC.
    The Committee met, pursuant to notice, at 10:32 a.m., in 
Room 210, Cannon Building, Hon. John A. Yarmuth [Chairman of 
the Committee] presiding.
    Present: Representatives Yarmuth, Jeffries, Kildee, 
Horsford, Lee, Chu, Jackson Lee, Sires, Peters, Moulton 
Jayapal; Smith, Kelly, McClintock, Grothman, Smucker, Burgess, 
Carter,Cline, Boebert, Donalds,Geenstra, Good, Hinson, 
Obernolte, and Carey.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The hearing will come to order. Good 
morning and welcome to the Budget Committee's hearing on How 
the American Rescue Plan Saved Lives and the U.S. Economy. At 
the outset, I ask unanimous consent that the Chair be 
authorized to declare a recess at any time. Without objection, 
so ordered.
    I will start by going over a few housekeeping matters. The 
Committee is holding a hybrid hearing. Members may participate 
remotely or in person. For individuals participating remotely, 
the Chair or staff designated by the Chair may mute a 
participant's microphone when the participant is not under 
recognition for the purpose of eliminating inadvertent 
background noise. If you are participating remotely and are 
experiencing connectivity issues, please contact staff 
immediately so the issues can be resolved.
    Members participating in the hearing or on the remote 
platform are responsible for unmuting themselves when they seek 
recognition. We are not permitted to unmute Members unless they 
explicitly request assistance. If you are participating 
remotely and I notice that you have not unmuted yourself, I 
will ask you if you would like staff to unmute you. If you 
indicate approval by nodding, staff will unmute your 
microphone. They will not unmute your microphone under any 
other conditions.
    I would like to remind Members participating remotely in 
this proceeding to keep your camera on at all times, even if 
you are not under recognition by the Chair. Members may not 
participate in more than one committee proceeding 
simultaneously. If you are on the remote platform and choose to 
participate in a different proceeding, please turn your camera 
off. Finally, we have established an email inbox for submitting 
documents before and during Committee proceedings and we have 
distributed that email address to your staff.
    Now, I will introduce our witnesses. This morning we will 
be hearing from Dr. Julia Coronado, the Founder and President 
of MacroPolicy Perspectives. The Honorable Vince Williams, the 
Mayor of Union City, Georgia, and the President of the National 
League of Cities. Ms. Sharon Parrott, the President of the 
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. And Mr. Stephen Moore, 
Chair of the Save America Coalition, the America First Policy 
Institute, and a distinguished fellow in economics at the 
Heritage foundation. We welcome all of you.
    I now yield myself five minutes for an opening statement.
    Good morning. I want to welcome our distinguished panel of 
witnesses. Thank you for joining us for this important hearing 
on the American Rescue Plan.
    This legislation, which I was proud to sponsor, was signed 
into law 15 months ago. A lot has changed since then and the 
American people have benefited enormously from the provisions 
of this law. But they have also been subjected to a lot of 
misinformation about the law. So today, I want to start by 
laying out the facts.
    In 2021, the Rescue Plan powered the strongest economic 
growth in nearly 40 years, helping to improve our fiscal 
standing and laying the foundation for our record-breaking 
recovery.
    On the jobs front, before the Rescue Plan, the nonpartisan 
Congressional Budget Office projected our unemployment rate 
would be 5 percent right now, and that it wouldn't drop below 4 
percent within this decade. Thanks to the Rescue Plan, 
unemployment is near historic lows at 3.6 percent. Seventeen 
states, including my home state of Kentucky, are seeing their 
lowest unemployment rates on record. In fact, the Rescue Plan 
nearly doubled GDP growth and led to the creation of 4 million 
additional jobs in 2021. That is millions of Americans earning 
a paycheck as a direct result of the Rescue Plan.
    And it is not only jobs. Incomes are up too by more than 5 
percent overall, and by nearly 12 percent for the lowest-
earning workers. That is even after accounting for inflation. 
The child poverty rate dropped nearly 40 percent from 2020 to 
2021. Despite the economic fallout of the pandemic and the 
possibility of a wave of evictions, foreclosures hit an all-
time low last year.
    Across-the-board, the data shows that the Rescue Plan 
helped American families enormously, ensuring they could put 
food on the table, stay in their homes, and avoid economic 
devastation despite the turbulent times.
    The law was also enormously beneficial to state and local 
governments. During the Great Recession, the contraction at the 
state and local level hurt our overall recovery and prevented 
states from addressing community needs and longer-term impacts 
of the recession.
    This time, funding from the Rescue Plan helped state and 
local governments avoid massive layoffs, keeping teachers, 
firefighters, police, and millions of other essential workers 
on the job. Local leaders had the resources necessary to meet 
urgent needs and ensure their communities came out of the 
pandemic better than they went into it.
    Not only was the Rescue Plan more effective than other aid 
packages during the previous recession, it also helped the 
United states recover more quickly than other nations. In fact, 
the U.S. had the fastest economic recovery among the G-7 
countries, and our economy is projected to be larger at the end 
of this year relative to its pre-pandemic size than any other 
G-7 economy.
    Clearly, we have made significant progress, but now 
inflation is a challenge. Again, here are the facts: Experts 
across the ideological spectrum agree that the main drivers of 
current inflation are international supply chain issues and 
energy price hikes caused by Russia's war in Ukraine. These are 
global challenges, which is why inflation is a global issue. As 
Treasury Secretary Yellen said last week, ``We are seeing high 
inflation in almost all of the developed countries around the 
world. And they have very different fiscal policies.''
    But unlike our global counterparts, America is in a better 
place to face these economic headwinds because of the American 
Rescue Plan. We have avoided the kind of long-lasting financial 
damage to families and communities that typically follows an 
economic downturn of the size we experienced. We have avoided 
the grim forecasts CBO projected before the Rescue Plan. We 
saved our economy and we delivered lifesaving and life-changing 
relief to families across the country, all while fueling the 
most equitable and impressive economic recovery in recent 
memory.
    There is a lot to learn from the Rescue Plan and the 
important role the federal government can play in the lives of 
Americans. I look forward to discussing this further with our 
esteemed panel of witnesses today.
    With that, I would like to yield to the Ranker Member, Mr. 
Smith, five minutes for his opening statement.
    [The prepared statement of Chairman Yarmuth follows:]
    
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    Mr. Smith. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. It has been over 15 
months since the $2 trillion American Rescue Plan, as I refer 
to it as the Biden bailout bill, was signed into law, sparking 
the highest inflation in 40 years. Inflation has risen 12.2 
percent since Joe Biden took the oath of office. We have seen 
gas prices surge to 109 percent above since Joe Biden took the 
oath of office. I want to thank the Chairman for agreeing to 
hold this oversight hearing. We have been asking for it for 
some time and yet, this oversight hearing undercut by the fact 
that President Biden's Rescue Czar Gene Sperling and Treasury 
Secretary Yellen are not here.
    Mr. Chairman, as you know, I sent you a letter requesting 
you add a second panel of executive branch witnesses for the 
hearing so Mr. Sperling and Secretary Yellen could answer the 
questions they have thus far ignored from our timeless efforts 
one after another. And I ask unanimous consent to submit the 
letter to the record.
    Chairman Yarmuth. Without objection.
    [Letter submitted for the record follows:]
    
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    Mr. Smith. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Mr. Sperling was 
appointed to oversee the implementation of this $2 trillion 
boondoggle. Secretary Yellen's Department is responsible for 
administering over $1 trillion worth of its programs and 
benefits. Many of these made it more rewarding to stay out of 
the work force in 2021 than seek gainful employment, worsening 
the labor and supply chain problems we see today.
    For over a year, we have cataloged numerous examples of 
ridiculous waste of federal tax dollars from the American 
Rescue Plan:

   $1,400 stimulus checks to Japanese citizens living 
in Japan;
   $783 million in checks to prisoners;
   $2 million to purchase a ski area;
   $140 million for luxury hotel developments in 
Florida;
   $20 million to modernize fish hatcheries in Maine;
   $4 million for a bird sanctuary;
   $2 million for a golf course.

Sounds like a lot, but there is a lot more:

   $15 million of taxpayer dollars to help develop a 
venue in New Jersey to host the 2026 World Cup;
   $7 million to social media influencers to promote 
seafood;
   $2 million to plant trees in New York;
   $5 million for a moonshine walking trail;
   $7 million for horseracing in Arizona;
   $250,000 for pickle ball courts;
   $800,000 for luxury apartments in Connecticut;
   $4 million for beach bathrooms and parking lots in 
South Carolina.

    This list goes on and on. This is why we need answers from 
the Administration.
    So, what did American families get? I will tell you. They 
got higher prices and lower real wages. Inflation began to rise 
to the fastest level in 40 years the month after Democrats 
passed the $2 trillion bill. Inflation was 1.7 percent in 
February 2021, the month before passage of this boondoggle.
    The economy shrank 1.5 percent in the first quarter of 
2022, 4.4 percentage points lower than where the Congressional 
Budget Office said it should be prior to passage of this 
boondoggle. The labor force participation rate is still below 
pre-COVID levels. The deficit in 2021 was $517 billion higher 
than the Congressional Budget Office said it would have been 
before passage of this boondoggle. At $2.78 trillion deficit, 
it was the second highest deficit in the history of this 
nation.
    Interest rates are rising faster than it has seen in 30 
years. When Joe Biden took office, the CBO predicted no tax 
rates until 2024. We have two already, one expected this week. 
In February 2021, CBO reported that the economic growth would 
return to pre-pandemic levels by the middle of last year and 
unemployment would continue decline, all without further 
federal government stimulus. Despite this and with $1 trillion 
in unspent COVID money, Democrats chose to gamble with the 
financial security of the American people.
    Our Democrat colleagues are holding this hearing to take a 
victory lap that which shows just how of touch they are with 
what real Americans are facing with uncontrollable inflation. I 
yield back.
    [The prepared statement of Jason Smith follows:]
    
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    Chairman Yarmuth. I thank the gentleman for his opening 
statement. Two points. One is you misspoke. You said tax rates 
instead of interest rates. I am just correcting it for your 
benefit.
    Mr. Smith. Thank you. Interest rates are continuing to rise 
under this Administration.
    Chairman Yarmuth. And second, just for point of 
information. We did extend an invitation to Treasury Secretary 
Yellen and she was unable to attend. But we did make the 
invitation to her.
    Now, I would like to once again, thank our witnesses for 
being here this morning. The Committee has received your 
written statements and they will be made part of the formal 
hearing record. You each will have five minutes to give your 
oral remarks. Dr. Coronado, you may begin when you are ready.

STATEMENTS OF JULIA CORONADO, FOUNDER AND PRESIDENT MACROPOLICY 
 PERSPECTIVES; VINCE WILLIAMS, MAYOR, UNION CITY, GEORGIA AND 
     PRESIDENT, NATIONAL LEAGUE OF CITIES; SHARON PARROTT, 
  PRESIDENT, CENTER ON BUDGET AND POLICY PRIORITIES; STEPHEN 
  MOORE, CHAIR, SAVE AMERICA COALITION, AMERICA FIRST POLICY 
  INSTITUTE, AND DISTINGUISHED FELLOW IN ECONOMICS, HERITAGE 
                           FOUNDATION

                  STATEMENT OF JULIA CORONADO

    Dr. Coronado.
    [Muted]----
    Mr. Peters. Can't hear her.
    Dr. Coronado [continuing]. before the ARP's passage, 
forecasters expected a solid GDP performance, but in the event, 
real GDP grew 5.7 percent in 2021, the fastest pace since 1983. 
And the unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent, the fastest one 
year decline on record.
    It is worth revisiting why policy erred on the side of 
generosity during the pandemic. The recovery from the Great 
Recession of 2008 featured too little policy support and a 
labor market that left millions of Americans on the sidelines 
for years. It took more than six years for the labor market to 
regain the 2007 level of employment. And only after that did 
the labor force participation rate of prime aged workers, age 
25 to 54 begin to recover. During the pandemic, prime age labor 
force participation again fell sharply. But a decisive recovery 
in both jobs and participation has been ongoing for the past 12 
months. We are on track to exceed pre-pandemic levels of 
employment and prime age participation in the next six months, 
which would be the fastest labor market recovery in four 
decades.
    There is an extensive literature in economics on labor 
market scarring. That is permanently lower earnings that result 
when people experience long spells of unemployment or labor 
force disengagement. Unemployment also adds to income 
inequality. Unemployment for lower wage and non-white workers 
rises more in a recession and falls more slowly in a recovery. 
The disastrously slow labor market recovery from the Great 
Recession led to a policy reorientation that prioritized speed 
of the recovery.
    A strong labor market and fiscal support has meant a 
broader based and more inclusive recovery. Workers have had 
more financial space to bide their time, change employers, and 
find the right situation for themselves and their families. 
Younger, non-white and lower wage workers hit harder by job 
losses during the pandemic are seeing by far the biggest wage 
gains and can obtain full-time jobs more readily when they want 
them.
    The financial benefits of supporting households has also 
been broad based. Delinquencies on virtually every loan 
category have fallen through the recession. The first time we 
have ever seen an improvement in credit quality through a 
downturn. Employers have had to adapt to this strong labor 
market but have largely been able to do so. Business 
profitability and productivity have risen strongly through the 
pandemic and applications for new business formation have 
soared to new highs.
    It may sound jarring to describe the U.S. economy in such 
glowing terms when inflation is soaring and there is rising 
talk of a recession. But diagnosing the drivers of inflation is 
key to developing an effective policy response. Excluding food 
and energy and adjusting for differences in methodology, U.S. 
core inflation did rise earlier and higher than other advanced 
economies, which surely reflects in some part the stronger 
policy response.
    But all countries have seen core inflation that is 2 \1/2\ 
to 3 \1/2\ percentage points above pre-pandemic trends, 
highlighting that pandemic disruptions including COVID-related 
shutdowns and supply chain frictions are an important driver of 
inflation that we are seeing. At the same time, the U.S. has 
also experienced the strongest recovery in the world in terms 
of real GDP growth.
    The more recent spike in food and energy prices is tied 
directly to the war in Ukraine and will act as a tax on U.S. 
consumers. The Fed has been tightening monetary policy, which 
should cool demand and inflationary pressures in coming months. 
But lingering supply chain frictions and the vulnerability of 
food and energy prices to the actions of despots who seek to 
weaken western democracies and economies will not be addressed 
through monetary policy and require a more structural response.
    Viewing high inflation primarily through the lens of budget 
deficits is also not likely to be helpful. The federal 
government ran the largest April surplus in history this year. 
And a strong economy is producing stronger than expected tax 
receipts while the expiration of ARP programs has led to an 18 
percent decline in outlays. Yet, supply chain frictions and war 
inflation are still with us. At least a strong economy gives 
consumers the best shot possible of weathering rising interest 
rates and the war shock.
    The pandemic has been a huge shock to the global economic 
system. Strong policy support has led to a robust U.S. 
recovery, but now is the time to address some of the structural 
elements of this disruption. That will be key to not only 
bringing inflation down but meeting the challenges of the 
energy transition and preserving western style democracies. 
Thank you. I yield back.
    [The prepared statement of Julia Coronado follows:]
    
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    Chairman Yarmuth. Thank you, Dr. Coronado, for that 
statement. I now recognize Mayor Williams for five minutes. You 
may begin when you are ready.

                  STATEMENT OF VINCE WILLIAMS

    Mr. Williams. Thank you. Thank you, Chairman Yarmuth and 
the Committee for allowing me this opportunity to be here to 
talk to you and share with you some of the great things that 
have happened since APRA, the passing of APRA, on behalf all 
cites, towns, and villages across this nation.
    Again, I am Vince Williams, Mayor of the city of Union 
City, Georgia, and also the proud President of the National 
League of Cities. Union City is a community of over 26,000 
proud residents, 88 percent of whom are African American. 
Before COVID, Union City was trending in the right direction by 
nearly every measure. We were revitalizing neighborhoods 
through immense new investment by businesses in our city and 
had increased our local revenue by over 81 percent through 
economic activity and job creation. Our finances are in order 
and nothing about my city or any city suggested a bail-out. 
Because the whole nation was set back by COVID-19, so was Union 
City.
    APRA local government grants have given all cities, towns, 
and villages in our nation the ability to be part of a national 
economic recovery from bottom up starting with our hardest hit 
residents. It is not like past efforts when decisions were made 
in a federal office far away from where problems truly 
happened.
    From the start, Union City followed the advice of public 
health experts, as we still do today, and state and federal 
rules. We knew there would be tradeoffs, but we never thought 
we would have to go it alone. Pausing nearly every local 
economy while ramping up response to a global health crisis 
created the kinds of economic uncertainty that the federal 
government is uniquely authorized to address.
    For local governments, the public health crisis was 
inseparable from the economic crisis. It laid bare long-
standing health disparities that underlie why losses have 
happened in cities in such uneven ways. Households in lower 
income communities are at greater risk of bad health outcomes, 
which worsen the effects of COVID-19. This is evident across 
metro Atlanta where lifespans vary by as much as two decades 
based on your neighborhood or zip code.
    Union city is investing in a greenway trail with ARPA 
funds. Why? A greenway is a sought-after amenity. It will raise 
the value of the community and encourage accessible, affordable 
ways for our residents to be healthier. As a determinant of 
health, our built environment must facilitate healthier 
outcomes, or at least, not be an impediment, so that we will be 
less susceptible to the next COVID wave, or the next pandemic.
    And the injection of APRA funds gives us access to the 
capital our city needs to put contractors and laborers to work. 
Imagine the transformation. Today, there are two parks in Union 
City. This project will connect everyone in the community with 
a recreational system that gives families across the city the 
opportunity to conveniently access outdoor recreation space.
    My city is also spending to reduce food insecurities and to 
upgrade wastewater and stormwater systems. Our municipal 
workers in every department are our heroes. For many of them, 
virtual work is not and was not an option. Imagine for a moment 
your hometown government has just shut down. Who would fix the 
busted water pipes flooding your streets in the middle of the 
night? To acknowledge their work through the pandemic, the city 
also offered premium pay of $3,000 to eligible employees. This 
is not only a recognition of excellent work during tough times, 
it is also an investment in maintaining a qualified and trained 
work force for the future.
    We should note the substantial contributions of local 
governments to the private economy. Some cities had more than 
30 percent of water and sewer residential and business 
customers on a cutoff list for nonpayment. Many 90 days late or 
more. Yet, local leaders made the painful but right decision to 
maintain service and absorb losses. To not have done so would 
have increased homelessness and joblessness and unhealthy 
conditions.
    City fiscal conditions are also a good indicator of how 
well low and middle-income households are doing. When there is 
opportunity for lower-income households and the middle-class is 
growing, local tax revenue goes up. When the middle-class 
experiences declines, so will local tax revenue. We call that 
Main Street. The state and Local Fiscal Recovery Fund is a Main 
Street program.
    I am sure Members of Congress have questions regarding 
specific expenditures in their districts. I will conclude by 
encouraging you to first learn more about the context of such 
expenditures by giving local leaders the courtesy of a phone 
call or certainly a much-needed visit to explain what their 
expenditure is all about.
    Thank you, Chairman Yarmuth, and Members of the Committee. 
I appreciated this time.
    [The prepared statement of Vince Williams follows:]
    
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    Chairman Yarmuth. Thank you, Mayor Williams. I now 
recognize Ms. Parrott for five minutes for her opening 
statement. And you can unmute your machine and begin.

                  STATEMENT OF SHARON PARROTT

    Ms. Parrott. Thank you very much. Chairman Yarmuth, Ranking 
Member Smith, Members of the Committee, thank you for the 
opportunity to testify here today. I am Sharon Parrott, 
President of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a 
nonpartisan research and policy institute here in Washington, 
DC. I am here to discuss three lessons we can learn from the 
overwhelmingly successful COVID relief efforts of the last few 
years, including the 2021 American Rescue Plan, as well as the 
measures enacted in 2020.
    First, we saw that a timely, robust fiscal policy response 
can greatly speed and strengthen an economic recovery. Relief 
efforts during the pandemic spurred a remarkable recovery that 
made the COVID recession the shortest on record and brought the 
unemployment rate, which peaked at 14.7 percent in April 2020, 
down to 3.6 percent today. Two years after the Great Recession 
when the federal response was both historic and undersized, 
unemployment was still at 9.9 percent. While the causes of the 
two recessions were different, there is little question that 
the policy response to the pandemic fostered a stronger and 
swifter recovery.
    Second, well designed relief measures can greatly reduce 
the harm done by a recession or a crisis, preventing spikes in 
serious forms of hardship. Relief measures drove poverty down 
to a record low in 2020, after counting government assistance, 
and prevented spikes in food insecurity and homelessness. While 
annual poverty data are not yet available for 2021, one study 
at Columbia University estimated that the American Rescue Plan 
alone reduced annual poverty that year by more than 12 million 
people, including 5.6 million children, a reduction in child 
poverty of more than 50 percent.
    Relief measures included both broad-based policies like 
economic impact payments, and policies targeted to those facing 
the greatest hardship like expanded food assistance, housing, 
healthcare, and unemployment benefits, and extending the full 
child tax credit to the lowest income children.
    Absent relief measures, unemployment likely would have 
spelled financial disaster for millions of people. Evictions 
and the number of children facing food insecurity would have 
soared. The ranks of the uninsured would have risen. Instead, 
jobless workers got robust unemployment benefits that helped 
families and the economy. Families got additional nutrition 
assistance, including additional help when schools were closed. 
Evictions were averted first through a moratorium, and then 
through emergency rental assistance that has now helped more 
than 5.7 million households. Medicaid expanded and in 2021, 
Affordable Care Act marketplace premiums became far more 
affordable, helping more people get and stay insured.
    Childcare providers got help to stay in business and 
families got more help too.
    These targeted policies helped a broad swath of families 
who fell on hard times. They were particularly important to 
people hard hit by the pandemic itself who worked in industries 
that saw large job losses and who came into the crisis with 
fewer assets to lean on. This includes a disproportionate 
number of people of color who often have seen their 
opportunities shortchanged by structural racism and 
discrimination in employment, housing, and education.
    Of course, the relief effort wasn't perfect. Some families 
experienced long delays in aid and policymakers allowed help to 
lapse in the latter half of 2020, which needlessly increased 
economic insecurity and contributed to a flagging recovery in 
the latter part of 2020.
    Now, it is important to note that large scale temporary 
relief measures were needed in part because of weaknesses in 
the nation's underlying economic and health security policies. 
For example, our regular unemployment insurance system leaves 
out a large share of unemployed workers and provides low 
benefits to many who do qualify. Emergency temporary measures 
were needed and they were difficult to implement because they 
were built on a rickety foundation.
    That brings me to my third lesson. Some of the temporary 
relief measures proved effective at combatting problems that 
long predated the pandemic and they point the way to policy 
advances we should adopt on an ongoing basis. Examples include 
supporting low-income children through an expanded child tax 
credit that is fully available to the lowest income families, 
making marketplace coverage more affordable, supporting workers 
by expanding the EITC, and revamping the unemployment insurance 
system, supporting both kids and families by providing access 
to affordable, quality childcare and preventing housing 
instability and homelessness by expanding rental assistance.
    In sum, COVID relief efforts sharply reduced poverty and 
hardship and spurred a strong and swift recovery. But shoring 
up our ongoing economic and health security policies would both 
improve wellbeing during normal economic times and make our 
nation more resilient to future recessions and crises. Thank 
you.
    [The prepared statement of Sharon Parrott follows:]
    
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    Chairman Yarmuth. Thank you, Ms. Parrott. I now recognize 
Mr. Moore for five minutes. Unmute your mic and proceed. 
Welcome.

                   STATEMENT OF STEPHEN MOORE

    Mr. Moore. Thank you very much for the opportunity to 
testify before this Committee. I am honored to be here and 
thank you, Mr. Smith, for the invitation as well.
    To say the least, the timing of this hearing is extremely 
unfortunate, given what is happening with the American economy 
as we speak. We have now $5 gasoline in this country and in 
many states, we have $6 to $7 a gallon gasoline. It was $2.39 
when Trump left office. We now have 9 percent inflation in the 
U.S. And the numbers just came out this morning, unfortunately, 
on the Producer Price Index numbers were up to 10 percent, 
Producer Price Index. That, of course, means that consumer 
prices are going to rise in the months ahead. We haven't peaked 
on inflation. It is not transitory.
    We have increased the national debt over the last two years 
by $4 trillion, which is a disgrace. And most importantly, and 
I hope you will all focus on this, by most estimates in the 
last 14 months or so, the average family in America, the median 
family income has dropped by $3,500 in real terms. Let me say 
that again. A $3,500 reduction in real median income. Now, we 
don't have the official numbers yet. We will get those in 
September. But I track these numbers pretty closely. It will be 
close to that. And that is because you have this huge hurdle of 
8 \1/2\ percent inflation. That means nominal incomes have to 
go up by at least 8 \1/2\ percent and wages have to go up by 
that amount just to keep pace with inflation. You all know we 
are at 5 percent wage growth. So, nowhere near.
    And so, incidentally, under Trump and, look, I worked for 
Donald Trump. I was one of his senior economic advisors. You 
know, we cut taxes. We reduced regulations. We got government 
off the back of our businesses. And one of the things we are 
most proud of is that we saw over those four years, a $6,500 
increase in median family income. That is huge. That is a huge 
amount of economic progress. And incidentally, minorities saw 
huge gains. Hispanics and Blacks saw--and we are really proud 
of that, the gains that were made with Hispanics and Blacks.
    So, frankly, to have a hearing today that is saying that 
this economic strategy has been a success, is delusional and 
dangerous. And when I talk to people outside the Beltway, they 
think it is just further evidence that Washington is completely 
out of touch, frankly, with the real problems that Americans 
are facing in paying their bills.
    So, there were three--we lived through three economic 
crises in my lifetime. The economic crisis of the 1970's, when 
we had the massive inflation and the stagflation that happened 
when Reagan came into office. We had, of course, the financial 
crisis of 2007 and 2008, and then, of course, we had the COVID 
crisis. And it is so important that we learn the lessons of 
what works and what doesn't work.
    So, Reagan came in in the middle of what was arguably the 
greatest crisis since the Great Depression. And what did Reagan 
do? We did not have a massive spending stimulus. Reagan cut 
taxes, reduced regulations, and we got control of the money 
supply with Paul Volcker at the Fed. Something that should be 
happening now. And we saw a ferocious recovery. What happened 
in the 1980's was an economic miracle that no one thought was 
possible. Mr. McClintock, the economic recovery was so strong, 
it was like we added another California to the economy under 
the Reagan years. So, obviously, that strategy worked.
    Then we tried what happened under the Obama years. And Ms. 
Coronado is right. We tried $200 billion of stimulus spending. 
And it was a complete failure. We had the worst recovery from a 
recession in modern times. It was a horrific recession. We were 
effectively in a recession for five years. And the thing that 
is so amazing is that the lesson that many on the left learned 
was we didn't spend enough money. We didn't spend enough. So, 
instead of doubling down and tripling down and we quadrupled 
down. And instead of spending $250 billion, we spent a 
trillion, or actually $2 trillion. And now we see the result of 
this. It is economic wreckage, in my opinion.
    Now, yes, the jobs market is strong right now. There is no 
question about it. It is the best jobs market right now that I 
have seen in my lifetime. But I got to tell you this, it does 
not look good right now. I am very, very worried about a 
recession. This could be very severe. And I think most 
economists would agree with me.
    So, we should learn the lessons of what has happened here. 
This was not a success. And to call this a success is really 
problematic because the first stage of any kind of recovery, if 
you have an addiction, is to acknowledge you have a problem. 
And to not acknowledge that we have a massive budget that is 
out of control, that we have an economy that is teetering on a 
recession, that Americans are suffering greatly in terms of 
their purchasing power and their incomes, is problematic.
    And so, let's learn the lessons. Let's get it right. We 
should cut taxes going forward, not increase government 
spending. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
    [The prepared statement of Stephen Moore follows:]
    
[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]    
    
 
    
    Chairman Yarmuth. Thank you, Mr. Moore. We will now begin 
our Q&A session. And as is my customary proceeding, I will 
reserve by time until the end. So, I now recognize the 
gentleman from Michigan, Mr. Kildee, for five minutes.
    Mr. Kildee. Well, thank you, Mr. Chairman, for holding this 
hearing and for the witnesses for your participation to discuss 
the effect of the American Rescue Plan and how it impacted 
working families.
    It is important for us to remind ourselves that in the 
first few months of the pandemic, 22 million people lost their 
jobs, 22 million of our fellow Americans. And while our 
unemployment rate is now much lower and our economic recovery 
has gained most of these jobs back, it is important to remember 
that the quick and decisive passage of the American Rescue 
Plan, despite some of what may have been said, did help to save 
our economy. The choice of doing nothing was not an acceptable 
choice given the circumstances. Otherwise, we obviously would 
have risked spiraling into what could have been another Great 
Depression.
    The pandemic also exposed weaknesses in our economy, 
including our reliance on foreign supply chains, for critical 
components in goods. And of course, because of the pandemic and 
broken supply chains, and now Vladmir Putin's war in Ukraine, I 
know a lot of families are experience higher costs because of 
inflation. We acknowledge that.
    But what my focus has been, and many of us have been 
working on is lowering costs for working families, lowing costs 
on gasoline, prescription drugs, groceries. And so, I am happy 
to see that Congress will once again this week act on 
legislation to fix supply chains and pass the Lower Food and 
Fuel Costs Act to provide relief for families.
    The title of today's hearing suggests the American Rescue 
Plan focused on helping working families, not people at the 
top. And provided meaningful support in the form of tax cuts 
for working families. A million Michigan families with children 
got a monthly tax cut. In my district alone, the middle-class 
tax cut put millions of dollars back into the pockets of 
hardworking Michigan families. For mothers like Cordelia, a 
single working mom I represent. She has twin daughters in my 
hometown of Flint. These tax cuts made a huge difference 
helping her afford school supplies, school uniforms, shoes, 
socks, coats, the basics, for her two daughters. That is just 
story among millions. Millions of Michiganders and Americans 
who were helped through this terrible period by those important 
tax cuts for American families.
    So, Ms. Parrott, I wonder if you might, and you mentioned 
it in your opening statement, but I wonder if you might go a 
little further to describe how these important tax cuts helped 
working families, their individual budgets, and also helped 
boost the American economy.
    Ms. Parrott. Yes, thank you for the question. The monthly 
payments provided through the child tax credit provided a 
lifeline to families in 2021. We have data that tell us what 
families spent the money on. When we look at low-income 
families for whom the increase was the largest because for the 
first time, we ensured that low-income children got the same 
child tax credit that middle income children received. When we 
look at low-income children, we asked the question what did 
they spend it on? We get the answer that I think most of us 
would expect. They spent it on food. They spent it on rent. 
They spent it on their mortgage. They spent it on school 
supplies. They spent it on childcare. They spent it on all the 
things that families need to care for their children. Many of 
them used it for broadband access, which during the pandemic 
was entirely essential for their children's schooling and for 
their family's connection and interconnection to the economy. 
Others paid down debt.
    With the flexibility that came from monthly cash payments, 
families made decisions that supported their children and the 
needs of their families. They had the ability to make those 
decisions for themselves.
    We also have real time data that showed some of the 
positive impacts that families felt. After the first round of 
monthly payments, the share of adults with children reporting 
that their family didn't have enough to eat in the past seven 
days dropped significantly and rapidly according to data from 
the Census Bureau. Just stop and think about that for a moment. 
We provided a modest monthly child tax credit to families and 
fewer kids were in families struggling to afford food here in 
the United States of America.
    More broadly, in 2021, among parents with incomes under 
$25,000, the share doing at least OK financially and that is 
how the question was worded in the survey, rose by 13 percent, 
according to a report issued by the Federal Reserve. And 
similarly, the share of parents across income levels who would 
be able to pay for a $400 unexpected expense with cash rose 
from 56 percent in 2020 to 64 percent in 2021.
    Again, I want you to think about what it means for a family 
to be able to absorb a $400 increased cost. A car breaks down, 
a repair in the house is needed. For many of us, $400 doesn't 
seem like a lot. And for these families, it made all the 
difference to being able to absorb that kind of cost.
    The last point I would just like to make is that helping 
families with kids make ends meet has long-term positive 
impacts. A large body of research finds that lifting children 
out of poverty and preventing hardship yields important 
dividends for children's and parents' emotional wellbeing. 
Children's short and long-term health outcomes, and success in 
reading in math, their school completion, their future earnings 
prospects. In short, for the future wellbeing of the next 
generation of adults.
    That is why it is so important that we do these things not 
only during crisis times, but in normal times to help our kids 
have a chance to succeed. Thank you.
    Mr. Kildee. Thank you so much. My time has expired. I, 
again, thank the witnesses for their participation. And thank 
you, Mr. Chairman, for this hearing. I yield back.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman's time has expired. I now 
yield 10 minutes to the Ranking Member, Mr. Smith.
    Mr. Smith. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Mr. Moore, a common 
excuse that we hear from our Democrat colleagues over and over 
when it comes to high inflation is that it is Putin's fault. 
First, when inflation was an issue, Democrats and folks in the 
Administration said it was temporary. It was transitional. They 
said it was a high-class problem. Now they are saying it is 
Putin's fault. So, what is your response when you hear 
Democrats say that inflation is high because Putin invaded 
Ukraine at the end of February 2022. Never mind the fact that 
inflation had been rising since the American Rescue Plan was 
passed and was already up by 7.5 percent before Putin ever 
moved any forces.
    Mr. Moore. So, a couple observations. First, the recovery 
began in around June 2020. So, the second half of 2020, the 
economy grew by about 20 percent. It was the fastest--so, this 
idea that somehow the recovery began with the American Recovery 
Act is just plainly false. The growth happened, the real 
growth, happened in the second half of 2020.
    And the thing that is kind of missed in all of this is that 
what happened with the economy is we made a huge, huge mistake. 
We shut down our economy. We shut down our businesses. We shut 
down our restaurants. We shut down our churches. It was 
catastrophic. And now we have the evidence that the health 
benefits of that were de minimis. So, we got almost no health 
benefits, but we did incredible damage to our economy.
    Now, here is the interesting thing that happened. Starting 
in around June 2020, most of the red states in America, 
Florida, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, 
those states opened up. Because one of the things that Trump 
did that was really brilliant--and he made mistakes, anybody 
would make a mistake in that kind of crisis. But he allowed 
federalism to work. And he said we are going to let the states 
decide their policy.
    Now, Mr. McClintock, your state didn't do a very good job 
of it. Your state was a disaster. And by the way, the death 
rate when you adjust for age, was no higher in Florida than it 
was in California. For the second half of 2020, Florida was 
almost completely wide open and California, as you know, was 
completely shut down. So, these problems in these--the problems 
that you are all talking about were in the blue states in 
America that made a bad point, bad decision on that.
    Now, so we had a big recovery in the second half of 2020. 
Do you know, Mr. Smith, what the inflation rate was the month 
Trump left office? I know exactly.
    Mr. Smith. 1.4?
    Mr. Moore. 1.4 percent. So, how do you go from 1.4 percent 
inflation to 8.6 percent inflation in 14 months? You can't 
blame it on the recovery because we already had a ferocious 
recovery----
    Mr. Smith. We spent $2 trillion dollars.
    Mr. Moore [continuing]. that was happening. It was clear--
now look, there were a lot of factors, but the match that lit 
this forest fire was the $1.9 trillion. Plus, let's not forget, 
then we passed a $1.1 trillion so-called infrastructure bill. 
So, that is $3 trillion of spending. Now, let me just make one 
other quick point.
    Mr. Smith. OK. Let's make it quick.
    Mr. Moore. OK.
    Mr. Smith. Because I am running out of time.
    Mr. Moore. The economists, there were 14 Nobel Prize 
economists who said there would be no inflation. Mr. Chairman, 
with all due respect, you said there would be no inflation. 
Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. We now have--and inflation is the 
cruelest tax of all. It is the one thing, you talk about 
poverty, the thing that is going to drive millions and millions 
of families into poverty is this high inflation rate.
    Mr. Smith. So, I just want to say this. Another thing that 
our colleagues they try to say over and over that inflation is 
a global problem. And I just want to chat with you a little bit 
about this. The U.S. economy is 25 percent of the entire 
world's economy, 25 percent. So, 1/4 of the world's economy. It 
is larger than the economies of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, 
and the United Kingdom combined. So, when the U.S. decides to 
spend $2 trillion, it is going to have a global impact when 
they control 1/4 of the economy. What is your response given 
that the inflation in the U.S. is actually higher than it is 
everywhere?
    Mr. Moore. It is a great question. And in my opinion, the 
world is pretty dollar denominated. We are the world reserve 
currency. I mean, Mr. Chairman, you have made that point many 
times. So, this happened--the same thing happened in the 70's. 
When we have inflation, inflation spreads around the world. So, 
this is like reverse foreign aid. We are actually hurting all 
of these other countries in the world because, you know, the 
euro is indirectly tied to the dollar. So many other countries 
basically peg their--China, for example, has essentially pegged 
their yuan to the dollar.
    So, we export inflation when we have inflation here. And 
that explains why if we bring our inflation rate down, Mr. 
Smith, I guarantee you the rest of the world will see a decline 
in inflation as well.
    Mr. Smith. So, despite the rosy commentary from the Biden 
Administration and Democrats that you will hear today, here are 
the facts. The economy shrank 1.5 percent in the first 
quarter----
    Mr. Moore. Right.
    Mr. Smith [continuing]. this year. Labor force 
participation is below what it was before the pandemic. The 
largest Consumer Price Index has inflation up 8.6 percent. 
Since President Biden took office, inflation is up 12.2 
percent. The Fed has already increased interest rates twice 
this year with another increase poised to take place tomorrow. 
Real wages are down 4.2 percent since Joe Biden took office. 
And gas is up 110 percent. And the 2021 deficit at $2.78 
trillion was the second highest on record, $517 billion more 
than CBO said it should have been. Why do you think--why do you 
think our--what do you think our economy will look like? What 
effects specifically did the American Rescue Plan have on 
economic growth and inflation?
    Mr. Moore. Well, look we had a--there was a huge stimulus 
at the beginning of 2021. There is no question about it. And 
that stimulus was not the American Recovery Act. I actually 
think that was negative for the economy. The stimulus, Mr. 
Smith, was Operation Warp Speed. We had a virus and that--I 
mean a vaccine. And that vaccine allowed millions and millions 
of more businesses to reopen their doors and allowed millions 
and millions of Americans to go back to work. Look, I frankly 
think that if Trump had been President over the last, we would 
not be facing this situation. We would have a booming economy.
    We lowered the poverty rate under Trump's policies to the 
lowest level in recorded history for Blacks, Hispanics, women, 
any group you want to talk about. You want to talk about 
reducing poverty rates in this country, Trump did it.
    Mr. Smith. Exactly. In your statement earlier, you made the 
comment that we should cut taxes----
    Mr. Moore. Mm-hmm.
    Mr. Smith [continuing]. and it is quite interesting what 
the Democrats keep trying to do over and over is to spin the 
Build Back Better, the Build Back Broke bill. They keep 
revitalizing it, which is over $1 trillion in tax increases. 
Taxes on U.S. energy to increase gas prices. But yet, they want 
to continue to spend money. So, would you say that passing the 
Build Back Broke Act, as I refer to it, which would increase 
taxes on Americans, increase taxes on U.S. energy, and also 
increase government spending, do you think that is the solution 
to our economy right now?
    Mr. Moore. So, can I say something nice about a Democrat, 
Mr. Smith? Because I am kind of a nonpartisan guy. I mean, Joe 
Manchin saved this country. Joe Manchin saved this country. If 
we had passed that--at that time that bill was, by many 
estimates, $4 trillion. I mean, I shutter to think. You think, 
you know, 8, 9, 10 percent inflation is bad. If we had passed 
that bill, I think we would be--we are talking about inflation 
rates that could have hit 15 percent.
    Mr. Smith. Thank you. I want to ask Dr. Coronado, in 
February 2021, you took to Twitter to dismiss concerns Dr. 
Larry Summers raised about inflation and the American Rescue 
Plan. You gave the concerns a thumbs down and said he was 
invoking an inflation boogeyman. Later the same month, on 
Twitter, you pushed around a tweet from a New York Times author 
who said in his post that the fear of inflation has become a 
greater threat to the American economy than inflation itself. A 
month after that you said, people with terrible track records 
forecasting who refuse to acknowledge and learn from their 
mistakes do not deserve to be at the center of our--or set the 
terms of policy discussions.
    In fairness, you were not alone. The Biden Administration, 
numerous Democrats, have similarly dismissed inflation. But 
given what you know now, would you agree that dismissing 
inflation concerns back in 2021 was a mistake?
    Dr. Coronado. I also as a forecaster, and I make my living 
as a forecaster, I have to acknowledge my mistakes. And so, I 
definitely underestimated the persistence of the supply chain 
issues. I would say part of that is just that the pandemic, we 
all expected it to be short lived and go away. And in fact, it 
didn't. And we are still dealing with supply chain shutdowns in 
China today. So, that is a real problem and we have built that 
into our thinking about inflation. If I think about the current 
rate of inflation, I think it goes into three main buckets. One 
is those pandemic-related frictions that have disrupted the 
entire global economy. We were at an incredibly integrated 
place of global supply chains and efficiency.
    And that entire model has been disrupted by the pandemic. 
That was exacerbated also by a shift to spending on goods over 
services. That was unanticipated. I mean, we should have, in 
retrospect, maybe anticipated that everybody was hunkered down 
and not spending on services, which is more than 2/3 of 
consumer spending. And so, they had a lot of spending power to 
spend on goods and that strained global supply chains. My hope 
is that supply friction that we have uncovered will see some 
improvement in productivity and efficiency investment into 
those supply chains to improve their resiliency as we go 
forward.
    The other bucket that is the dominant one right now is food 
and energy prices. That is tied to the war in Ukraine. That is 
not something that came from the American Rescue Plan or 
anything that the Biden Administration done. That came from the 
decision of Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine. And so, we need 
to be thinking about, again, ways we can address the supply 
side of food and energy to give some relief to U.S. consumers.
    Mr. Smith. I see that my time has expired. Food prices 
continued to go up prior to invasion of Ukraine as well. They 
have continued to increase but we have the data. Thank you.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman's time has expired. Do you 
want to finish your answer?
    Dr. Coronado. Well, I mean, I would say it would be 
certainly stimulating the U.S. economy was one contributor to 
higher inflation relative to other countries. But what you 
cited in my tweets and I still have that same frustration is we 
got something for this stimulus. Very, very important outcomes. 
We have gotten the strongest labor market in two generations. 
And I live outside the Beltway. I see it all around me in all 
kinds of people. And it is the working-class people that are 
reaping the benefits of this strong labor market more than 
anybody else. And that is the reality. I know the numbers too. 
I live by them. And they are quite impressive.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman's time has expired. I now 
recognize the gentlewoman from California, Ms. Lee, for five 
minutes.
    Ms. Lee. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman and our Ranking 
Member for having this important hearing. And thank you to all 
of our witnesses.
    First of all, it seems like it is lost on Republicans that 
one of the major outcomes of the Rescue Plan is we saved lives 
and livelihoods. And if that is not important, I don't know 
what is. People are alive because of that. People are surviving 
and beginning to thrive because of the Rescue Plan. And that is 
the bottom line.
    And also, let me just say I very clearly remember 
Reaganomics. The rich got richer and the poor got poorer. And 
every time I see a homeless veteran I think of Reaganomics. And 
so, I know what Reaganomics did especially for low-income 
people and people of color.
    Let me ask you, anyone can answer this. I would like to 
hear from all of our witnesses. In terms of low-income 
communities, the issues around income inequality and structural 
racism, people were living on the edge before the pandemic. 
People were barely surviving. And I know for people of color, 
the structural racism and the issues around income inequality 
is why.
    And so, I am wondering now, the structural issues, the 
institutional issues, the policy changes that are necessary so 
that people don't fall back into those same old systems, did we 
address any policy changes, any of the structural issues so 
that people who have been living on the edge can move forward 
now and not have to go through the same rigamarole that they 
have had to go through because of their race or because of 
their economic status?
    Mr. Williams. Thank you. I will dive in. I have been Black 
all my life. And my city certainly is predominantly African 
American, as I stated, 88 percent. And what I do want to say is 
I stick, you know, I must say this, I take issue with being 
referred to as delusional. Because I work in my community day 
in and day out. I am in the streets each and every day making 
sure that families are moving toward being better, you know.
    But one of the things I can say that we used and chose to 
use the money in a deliberative fashion in my community with 
seeking and making sure that our community had a voice in some 
of the things that we would do to get the best bang for the 
funding that we received. It is rare and unprecedented in my 
lifetime that the federal government gave grants to every and 
so many units of local governments.
    At the same time, the city we knew there were critical 
investments that had to be made to stabilize our community to 
afford all of our members of the community. I don't operate 
Republican or Democrat as a mayor. I don't have that luxury, 
you know. So, I am a little concerned of the conversations that 
we are having because it seems like I might be in the wrong 
room.
    But I do know what I have been focusing on is the uplift my 
community and those communities that I serve. But also working 
with the members of the National League of Cities that we serve 
over 19,000 cities, towns, and villages which provides service 
to over 200 million people and many of those are people of 
color. So, certainly this has been a great opportunity and it 
still is a great opportunity for us to do more. People are 
getting back to work.
    We have an unfortunate situation because of COVID-19 
pandemic. Stressed supply chains have been big problem. And we 
know that, you know. But I am very concerned that this 
conversation is shifting in another direction. But, you know, 
ma'am,----
    Ms. Lee. Thank you.
    Mr. Williams [continuing]. thank you and I hope that helps 
you.
    Ms. Lee. Thank you.
    Mr. Williams. Thank you.
    Ms. Lee. And, Ms. Parrott, can you also respond in terms of 
not just providing more resources, but are we changing those 
systems that are barriers for people of color and low-income 
people?
    Ms. Parrott. Yes, thanks for the question. I think that the 
American Rescue Plan did a lot to push against the spike in 
hardship that we would have seen that would have 
disproportionately fallen on communities of color that have for 
centuries faced systemic racism, which is why they came into 
the crisis with fewer assets, lower income, more 
vulnerabilities to both the virus itself and the economic 
fallout.
    But temporary measures can't solve permanent problems. And 
one of the things that is, I think, important and exciting is 
that we tested some things that worked that could push back in 
a more systemic way and that really paint the way or pave a 
path for the future.
    I think of it as the need to invest in three areas. Our 
kids, our workers, and our healthcare. And in each of those 
areas, communities of color face systemic barriers that hold 
them back in ways, and make them less likely to achieve their 
full potential, and to thrive and to be able to chart their own 
destiny, right?
    So, we need to invest in our kids because when we invest in 
our kids, when kids have more economic stability, when they go 
to good quality schools, when they have adequate nutrition, 
when those things happen, kids thrive and they can succeed. And 
so, that is why I talk about expanding the child tax credit 
permanently to make it fully available to kids who need it 
most. It is why we need to invest in childcare so that families 
can work and kids get the help they need to develop.
    When we think about investing in workers, we know that in a 
dynamic economy people lose jobs. But in the United States, a 
temporary job loss can be an absolute financial crisis for a 
family because our unemployment insurance system breathes, 
builds, creates so much financial insecurity for people.
    And the third thing I would say is healthcare. We have 2 
million people in the United States, 2 million people who 
should be getting Medicaid coverage that provides comprehensive 
coverage including mental health coverage, acute, and long-term 
care, they should be getting Medicaid and they aren't. And the 
reason is because their states, like the state of Georgia, has 
refused to adopt the Medicaid expansion. And that means that we 
have of that 2 million people, 60 percent are people of color, 
systematically left out of healthcare coverage that they need 
to be able to thrive and support their families.
    So, we know what we can do. We know it can make a 
difference. And the question is whether we will take those 
steps to get it done. Thank you.
    Chairman Yarmuth. Thank you. The gentlewoman's time has 
expired. I now recognize the gentleman from Mississippi, Mr. 
Kelly, for five minutes.
    Mr. Kelly. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And naming an act 
something does not and naming a hearing something. Saving lives 
in the United States economy that is the name of this hearing. 
Since 2021, since this American Rescue Plan passed, more people 
died from COVID than did before. That is a fact. So, it is not 
saving lives or explain to me how it saved lives. So, that is 
just a misnomer from the get.
    Our economy is not better today than it was in 2020. It is 
worse. And I know that because I think in the army I spent a 
long time and I am trying to say this in a nice way, don't pour 
water down my back and tell me it is raining.
    And my people in my district do not feel they are better 
off today. They do not feel like they are safer because of this 
American Rescue Plan. It is like scoring a touchdown in a 
college football game, which is that is life where I live. You 
score a touchdown and you go up seven to nothing. And you 
celebrate the rest of the game even though the final score is 
63 to 7. Yes, the American Rescue Plan had some benefits when 
it first passed. But those benefits have long passed and the 
actions and policies that we have done since then have added to 
inflation.
    We can tout the work force. We can tout that unemployment 
is the lowest and all that. But here is what I know. I can't go 
to restaurants because they are closed because they can't find 
workers to do the job. I think right now we are tone deaf to 
the cries of the American people. Especially those people in my 
district. We have $5 gas prices, record high, which happened 
long before the Putin invasion.
    I can point back to the 2020 budget where President Biden 
said in his budget that he intended to raise gas prices on the 
consumer. That is in his budget. Not my word, his word. Record 
inflation, 8.6 percent last seen during the Carter 
Administration. Supply chain issues that persist. The most 
recent, the baby formula, which we have taken steps way too 
late. Not when we were notified of the problem in the 
Administration, but months after they finally made a effort to 
do something that a problem that they knew was coming.
    Grocery prices. Talk to your constituents or talk to your 
people. It is amazing what little food you bring home in the 
plastic bags from a grocery store for spending more money than 
we did just months ago. It is appalling.
    My people cannot afford to eat and live. They have to make 
choices to feed their kids that they should not have to make. 
Input costs for our farmers continue to rise, whether that is 
diesel prices, whether that is fertilizer, tons of different 
input prices continue to rise, which guess what, means a year 
from now that the costs of those groceries are going to go even 
higher.
    A work force that is still disengaged because of us paying 
people not to work in this plan. We still, our service industry 
is especially impacted by this. And if you don't believe that 
you can see that restaurants that close at lunch because they 
don't have enough employees to open up and serve a meal to 
people.
    A border crisis that there has been no attempt, no attempt 
to solve. Under President Trump, we had an increasing average 
wage and now wages are stagnant or decreasing at best, 
especially in light of an--celebrate, I think not. I think it 
is time to reduce gas prices. Mr. Moore, what things can we do? 
I don't really want to talk about the past and I definitely am 
not celebrating. What things can we do to improve our economy 
now?
    Mr. Moore. Well, Mr. Chairman, first of all, you know, I 
don't recall all these supply chain problems when Trump was 
president. And it makes a big difference. I mean, look, Donald 
Trump, love him or hate him, you know, I didn't always agree 
with his antics and some of the things he said, you know, but 
he was a businessman. He knew how to make things work. He knew 
logistics. Who in this Administration knows anything about 
business? I mean, Pete Buttigieg, Jennifer Granholm.
    If we are concerned about the supply chain, why would the 
first act of Joe Biden when he came into office was to kill a 
pipeline. Pipelines are critical to the supply chain, right? It 
is by far the most efficient way to transport our oil and gas. 
Why would we take millions of acres of prime oil and gas lands 
off of limits? Why would we do that?
    The International Energy Administration estimated that we 
would be right now at about 14 million barrels of oil a day if 
we had continued with the Trump policies. You know where we are 
at today? Eleven million. So, think about that. We have lost 3 
million barrels of oil a day in production at $120 a barrel. 
You are talking about almost a half a billion dollars a day, a 
day that the United States is losing in terms of our GDP. That 
is tragic. That is tragic.
    So, we have got to end the war on American oil and gas. We 
are all for a clean environment and we all want to deal with 
climate change but shutting off American oil and gas was a 
really bad idea.
    I think we need to make the Trump tax cuts permanent. They 
were a success. I mean, everything shows that they were a 
success. We had the lowest poverty rate, the lowest 
unemployment rate. We had record revenues on the corporate and 
personal income tax. I mean, everything, you know, I helped 
design that plan. So, I feel personally engaged with it. But 
all the claims that we made worked.
    And the other thing that is really critical that you just 
said, Mr. Kelly, one of the big mistakes that we made under 
Trump within the first, you know, year of COVID under Trump, 
and then accelerated under Biden, was increasing unemployment 
benefits. And if you look at our chart in my testimony on page 
9. I don't know if you have it in front of you. We estimate 
that if we, instead of increasing unemployment benefits which 
pays people not to work, if we had done what Trump wanted to do 
which was cancel the payroll tax, we would probably have about 
4 million more Americans working today. Four million more 
Americans.
    So, let's incentivize people to work. Look, the heroes of 
the American economy in 2020 and 2021 were the firefighters, 
the policemen, the delivery people, the nurses, the people who 
were working. Why didn't we reward them rather than the people 
who were not working? It just didn't make any sense.
    Mr. Kelly. Mr. Moore, my time has expired. I yield back.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman's time has expired. I now 
recognize the gentleman from California, Mr. Peters--no, I am 
sorry, the gentlewoman from Texas, Ms. Jackson Lee, for five 
minutes.
    Ms. Jackson Lee. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. And 
what an amazing amount of delusional presentation that we have 
heard. And let me just quickly submit information into the 
record. The tax bill or the tax debacle of President Trump at 
the time, it ignored the stagnation of working-class wages and 
exacerbated inequality. In addition, it weakened revenues at a 
time when the nation needed to raise more revenues. It 
encouraged rampant tax gaming and risks undermined the 
integrity of the tax code.
    In particular, down in Houston where I represent, and I ask 
unanimous consent to submit a February 27, 2019, document into 
the record, how Trump's----
    Chairman Yarmuth. Without objection.
    [Document submitted for the record follows:]
    
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    Ms. Jackson Lee. In addition, Trump's tax cuts accelerated 
gentrification and inequality in Houston. We also realized that 
after two years, the Trump tax cut failed to deliver on GOP 
promises. And, of course, our own committee recognized that the 
tax law showers benefit on the wealthy, large corporations, 
while abandoning the middle class and the Main Street 
businesses.
    We would not have survived. The American Rescue Plan 
provided $8.2 million in American Rescue Plan dollars toward 
the Texas healthcare work force, the very point that the 
gentleman just previously made.
    I am not going to sit here and tolerate a lopsided 
presentation that suggests that we would have been in nirvana 
if we had had the previous president here. We would have had 3 
million dead Americans because we would not have had the 
distribution of the vaccines and/or the testing. As a Member of 
the U.S. Congress, I did about 85 testing sites and another 80 
vaccinationsites with local health collaborators. Right now, we 
are stuck. Why are we stuck? Because the bill that we passed in 
the House on COVID testing is languishing in the Republican 
strangled Senate. Even though Democrats want to do it.
    I believe that we should recognize that we can work 
together. We need to work together on improving the supply 
chains. We need to work together on dealing with the question 
of inflation. But I can assure you that if Joe Biden had not 
been elected and the previous person had been elected, now 
promoting the Big Lie, we would have been in an enormous 
disaster. More people would have died. The moneys to move the 
distribution of the vaccines and the testing protocol would not 
have worked. And families would have been in the streets 
carrying their belongings as we saw in Houston before those 
dollars came with whole families taking baby carriages out.
    This is an outrage that anyone would want to characterize 
the American Rescue Plan as anything but a rescue plan. That is 
what it was. It was a rescue plan. Mayor Vince Williams, I was 
a board member of the National League of Cities. Let's here you 
pound the table. Tell me what a lifeline, very quickly, because 
I want to get another question in, that the American Rescue 
Plan was for your cities that you represent.
    Mr. Williams. Thank you, Representative. I appreciate that. 
I do want folks to understand that when we think about a 
lifeline for America's people, you know, this is about people 
over politics. And we have got to make sure and you just made 
the comment about working together. This is about everyday 
Americans and it doesn't matter what district you are 
representing. There are people hurting in all of our districts 
and communities.
    But, you know, I do want to touch on, you know, how the 
American Rescue Plan further moved racial equity, if you will. 
You know, my statement in my written testimony includes a focus 
on the social determinants of health. Life expectancy is shaped 
by many factors beyond an individual's control. And that is 
what we are talking about. Those things that we can help people 
with where they have no ability to control it. And that is 
health disparities, access to internet, access to food 
insecurities. Those are things we have got to focus on. And we 
are really having a discussion about some partisan differences 
that, look, I wasn't brought here for this. I was brought here 
to talk about how ARPA assisted America's cities, towns, and 
villages across this nation. And----
    Ms. Jackson Lee. Thank you so very much.
    Mr. Williams [continuing]. my main focus is about the 
people who have been hurting. The people who have died as well. 
And certainly, I mentioned in my commentary that our first 
responders were our heroes. Certainly, the nurses in our 
community. But when we talk about healthcare, my----
    Ms. Jackson Lee. Thank you, Mayor.
    Mr. Williams [continuing]. city doesn't have a hospital.
    Ms. Jackson Lee. Ms. Parrott----
    Mr. Williams. We have two urgent care facilities, you know, 
so, certainly----
    Ms. Jackson Lee. Mayor, please can I----
    Mr. Williams [continuing]. hospital opportunities----
    Ms. Jackson Lee.--ask a question----
    Mr. Williams [continuing]. are needed.
    Ms. Jackson Lee.--of Ms. Parrott, if I might----
    Mr. Williams. Yes.
    Ms. Jackson Lee.--ask her a question? Thank you, Mayor, 
very much.
    Mr. Williams. Thank you.
    Ms. Jackson Lee. On what effect did the American Rescue 
Plan had on poverty and if you can just restate the value of 
the child tax credit in my waning moments. Mr. Chairman, if she 
can answer that question. Ms. Parrott?
    Chairman Yarmuth. She may answer.
    Ms. Parrott. OK.
    Ms. Jackson Lee. Thank you so much.
    Ms. Parrott. Over the last 80 years or more it might be 
difficult to think of a single piece of pre-pandemic 
legislation that has been more effective than the Rescue Plan 
at preventing poverty. Final poverty figures are not available 
for 2021 yet, but researchers know enough about the Rescue Plan 
to say several things.
    First, the American Rescue Plan kept a huge number of 
people above the poverty line in 2021. More than 12 million 
people according to projections by Columbia University. This 
includes 5.6 million children compared to what poverty would 
have been without that legislation. The study found that the 
Rescue Plan overall lowered poverty by nearly 1/3 and by more 
than 1/2 for children compared, again, to where poverty would 
have been without the plan.
    A second study by the Urban Institute found larger 
reductions in poverty. These and other projections suggest the 
Rescue Plan may prove to be the single most effective law since 
1935 for protecting people from poverty and hardship in a given 
year.
    But as I stated earlier, temporary measures help us see 
what is possible, but can't solve a long-term underlying 
problem. A key feature of the American Rescue Plan was making 
the full child tax credit available to the lowest income 
children. That has enormous positive effects on children, can 
lower poverty, and improve their future trajectories. Thank 
you.
    Chairman Yarmuth. Thank you. The gentlewoman's time has 
expired. I now recognize the gentleman from California, Mr. 
McClintock, for five minutes.
    Mr. McClintok. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. First, Mr. Moore, 
you keep bashing California's socialist economy. But I need to 
remind you that despite its problems, California is still one 
of the best places in the country to build a successful small 
business. All you have to do is start with a successful large 
business.
    Mr. Chairman, there are times when I wonder if the majority 
is completely disconnected from reality. The American Rescue 
Plan that spent and printed nearly $2 trillion that we didn't 
have, that amounts to about $15,000 for every family in 
America, unleased a wicked inflation that is now robbing 
families of thousands of dollars of their earnings. It turns 
out that all that free money that you sent out is pretty 
expensive. And Americans are paying it back every day at the 
grocery store, the gas station, the rents they pay, everywhere.
    Government can't put a dollar into the economy without 
first taking that same dollar out of the economy. Whenever 
government gives you a dollar it has to take a dollar from you. 
It does so through current taxes, which rob you of your current 
earning power and suppresses productivity. It does so through 
your future taxes by borrowing, which robs you of your future 
earnings, and it does so through inflation, which ravages your 
savings and purchasing power.
    ARPA was financed through inflation and it is crushing 
working families. And at the same time, you keep flooding the 
labor market with cheap illegal labor assuring working 
Americans will never recover. And the sad irony is they trusted 
you. Even your own economists warned you this would happen. 
Steve Rattner and Larry Summers, among others. And yet, you 
listened to the socialists in your party instead and this is 
what we have got. Before you passed ARPA, the CBO projected 2 
percent inflation for 2022. We are now at 8.6 percent and 
accelerating. It projected zero interest rate increases until 
2024. We have had 1.25 so far. As much as two when the dust 
settles at the Fed. And mortgage rates have doubled. CBO 
projected 4.6 percent economic growth for 2021, 3 percent for 
2022. Instead, we have had a 1 \1/2\ percent economic shrinkage 
in the first quarter.
    And you have the gall to tell us that ARPA is doing great 
things for the economy and everybody is wonderful. Are you out 
of your minds? I keep trying to warn you you cannot spin the 
economy. Everybody knows precisely how they are doing. And when 
you try to tell them otherwise, you sound foolish. And when you 
keep trying, you sound delusional. You are not fooling anybody 
but yourselves.
    Now, Mr. Moore, we just heard about poverty. Didn't we 
reach the lowest poverty rate in 60 years under the Trump 
Administration?
    Mr. Moore. In recorded history of the United States.
    Mr. McClintok. How did communities of color fair in the 
Trump economy?
    Mr. Moore. So, we had the lowest Hispanic, Asian, and Black 
poverty rate ever recorded in the history of the United States 
after----
    Mr. McClintok. How about wage growth?
    Mr. Moore. Pardon me?
    Mr. McClintok. How about wage growth?
    Mr. Moore. Very strong. I mean, we had, according----
    Mr. McClintok. The fastest wage growth.
    Mr. Moore [continuing]. according to the Census Bureau data 
does kind of the, you know, the critical research on this and 
they found over the four years of Trump Administration roughly 
$6,000 after inflation real income gain for the median income--
--
    Mr. McClintok. And that was----
    Mr. Moore [continuing]. that was for----
    Mr. McClintok [continuing]. that was----
    Mr. Moore [continuing]. people just in the middle.
    Mr. McClintok. That was the fast wage growth in 40 years, 
was it not?
    Mr. Moore. Roughly, yes.
    Mr. McClintok. And----
    Mr. Moore. Wage growth was pretty good----
    Mr. McClintok [continuing]. weren't the principal 
beneficiaries----
    Mr. Moore [continuing]. in the late Clinton Administration.
    Mr. McClintok [continuing]. working class Americans? Wasn't 
the income gap between rich and poor finally beginning to 
shrink?
    Mr. Moore. So, this is really the most important point. You 
know, I think that--I think we would all agree on this panel 
that one of the--one ways--one way that you should assess a 
government policy is how it affects the least among us. You 
know, and I think I agree with that.
    Mr. McClintok. And how did it affect the economy?
    Mr. Moore. How does it affect minorities? How does it 
affect the lowest income people? So, if we accept that 
criteria, we saw big gains for low-income people under Trump. 
And here is the thing that is reason I said----
    Mr. McClintok. What are we seeing now?
    Mr. Moore [continuing]. the reason I said inflation is the 
cruelest----
    Mr. McClintok. What are seeing now and how are communities 
of color doing now?
    Mr. Moore. Well, see this is the thing. When I said 
inflation is the cruelest tax, it is, sir, it is a--it is the 
most regressive tax of all. Look, if you have 8 percent 
inflation, I guarantee you Bill Gates doesn't care. I guarantee 
you someone who is making more than $1 million doesn't care. 
But----
    Mr. McClintok. Well, let me just----
    Mr. Moore [continuing]. people making $50,000----
    Mr. McClintok. I have got----
    Mr. Moore [continuing]. they get crushed.
    Mr. McClintok. If they are making $50,000 doesn't an 8.6 
percent inflation rate mean they just lost $4,300 of purchasing 
power here?
    Mr. Moore. Well, wages are up by 5. So, it is----
    Mr. McClintok. But at $50,000, an 8.6 percent inflation 
rate means reduced wages, of purchasing power of $4,300. Does 
it not? If I set aside $100,000 toward my retirement, doesn't 
that mean that the Democrats' inflation just took $8,600 of 
purchasing power?
    Mr. Moore. Well, except that wages are up by 5 percent. But 
you know what is really down, sir, is savings. I don't 
understand why Joe Biden keeps saying savings is up. We have 
seen $11 trillion lost in the stock market in the last four 
months. We do people have their savings? So, this is the 
biggest evaporation of savings since the----
    Mr. McClintok. If you have got $100,000 in your savings 
account that you put toward your retirement, isn't it worth now 
$8,600 less this year because of the Democrats' inflation?
    Mr. Moore. Yes.
    Mr. McClintok. Thank you.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman's time has expired. I now 
recognize the gentleman from California, Mr. Peters, for five 
minutes.
    Mr. Peters. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. You know, in San Diego 
the American Rescue Plan has been a lifeline for my 
constituents. federal funding has flowed to San Diego families, 
students, hospitals, small businesses, restaurants, and 
communities that were facing disaster at the beginning of this 
pandemic. Since the day that the American Rescue Plan became 
law, the number of San Diegans who are vaccinated has grown 
five times. More than 75 percent of the county is now fully 
vaccinated. I am proud that $95 million of relief went to live 
venues.
    And almost 17,000 PPP loans granted to small businesses in 
my district. Our team has connected dozens of small business 
owners with the Small Business Administration to secure 
shuttered venues, operators' grants, restaurant relief grants, 
paycheck protection loans like Mr. Lamb in Rancho Bernardo 
whose salon received a $79,000 PPP. Mr. Buono from Little Italy 
whose family restaurant received 124,000 PPP loan. We have also 
disbursed over $200 million to more than 10,000 renters to 
cover unpaid rent and utility bills. The fact is that these 
have been great benefits and kept us out of much worse 
problems. And that was what we were trying to do at the 
beginning.
    I would like to ask Dr. Coronado about the claim that we 
have exported inflation. Would you respond to that notion? And 
I don't know how, by the way, I don't know how that would have 
affected the supply of chips and the demand for goods. But tell 
me what the response to that is.
    Dr. Coronado. Right. I think it is fair to say that, yes, 
when American consumers spend it supports the global economy. 
But it is very difficult to tie any of that directly to the 
inflation we have seen. One of the things we saw here and 
abroad was a shift to goods spending that was after, you know, 
we have seen declining goods spending in advanced economies 
since World War II.
    It has been--we have become ever more service-oriented 
economies. And, in fact, so much so that the infrastructure of 
supply chains was underinvested in. And I think when we 
suddenly shifted back to goods spending both here, and in 
Europe, and in Canada, and in Australia, it strained these 
global supply chains. And that has been revealed as a really 
fundamental structural problem that bears some focus and some 
investment. And that will help increase efficiency globally.
    And ultimately what we want when we run into supply chain 
constraints like these supply chain issues we are facing, is 
that we invest in them and come out of this with better 
efficiency and better productivity. So, I think what we are 
seeing is very isolated focused inflation in areas that are 
most impacted by the supply chains. That is a global 
phenomenon.
    And then there are differences across countries depending 
on structures. And the other universal reality is the food and 
energy price inflation that we see.
    Mr. Peters. I mean, it is pretty preposterous to suggest 
that Ukraine had nothing to do with that. I abhor that, you 
know, this was not driven in large part by outside events 
related to COVID.
    Dr. Coronado. Yes.
    Mr. Peters. One of the other benefits, I think, and maybe, 
Dr. Coronado and Ms. Parrott could speak to this, was we put in 
place temporary protection from evictions. I agree this should 
be temporary and we should get back to business as normal. But 
can you describe the economic benefit of keeping people in 
their homes through this pandemic as we climb out of it?
    Dr. Coronado. Yes, absolutely. There are so many--and I 
will just speak briefly and then turn it over to Ms. Parrott. 
There are so many interlinkages between the benefits that were 
provided. Keeping people in their homes during a pandemic and 
allowing them to pay the rent also meant that they were better 
able to feed their families, which reduced distress. It meant 
that they were more able to continue working and continue to 
earn income. And it meant that that they were also more able to 
pay their other financial responsibilities.
    So, again, one of the points I made in my testimony is we 
have never seen--we have record low delinquencies on all kinds 
of loan categories. We have seen record low repossessions of 
cars. These are meaningful benefits to working class families. 
So, the spillover--and I think one of the innovations of the 
stimulus that we provided and the fiscal support we provided is 
just giving people the money to make the decisions they need to 
make for their families.
    Mr. Peters. Right.
    Dr. Coronado. So, you mentioned the rental assistance. That 
was important and then you also had cash on hand to do what you 
needed to do depending on the needs of your family.
    Mr. Peters. We are going----
    Dr. Coronado. And it just provided so many spillovers.
    Mr. Peters. We are going to run out of time, but I just 
wanted to address the notion that we didn't help the poorest 
people. The child tax credit cut childhood poverty in half. 
That should be extended. Also, the notion that the answer to 
this problem is to extend the Trump tax cuts. Trump tax cuts 
are in place today. This had nothing to do with----
    Dr. Coronado. Yes.
    Mr. Peters [continuing]. those as well. So, thank you. Mr. 
Chairman, I yield back.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman's time has expired. I now 
recognize the gentleman from Pennsylvania, Mr. Smucker, for 
five minutes.
    Mr. Smucker. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Just a few comments 
and if I can submit a letter into the record, I would 
appreciate it.
    Chairman Yarmuth. Without objection.
    [Letter submitted for the record follows:]
    
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    Mr. Smucker. This is a letter, Mr. Chairman, to you that I 
submitted, sent to you after a previous hearing when we talked 
about the need for a hearing on inflation. And I still stand. I 
think diving into what caused this inflation and what we in 
Congress can do to combat that is a really good discussion to 
have. I know we had some of that here today, but I would like 
to see us do that further. So, that letter remains.
    It is interesting to hear the Chairman's take on this, 
talks about 2 percent wage increase, but completely ignores, or 
almost ignores the real wage decrease that we have seen. And 
Democrats know that this economy is not working for the 
American people. That is why their dais has been empty most of 
this hearing. It is difficult for them to defend what is 
happening in the economy.
    Mayor Williams, I would like to--I appreciate you being 
here. Thank you for what you are doing in your community. You 
are working to help to see that the needs of your constituents 
are met. I want you to know that you are not the only one in 
the room that is in that position. We all come here to Congress 
to work. I ran for Congress to help to ensure that the poorest 
among us can live their own American Dream.
    And this is a real discussion about policies that make that 
happen or will prevent that from happening. So, yes, maybe 
sometimes it is political, but I want you to know that I think 
every member on this dais agrees with you that we should have 
policies that work.
    The inflation in your community, does that affect your 
constituents?
    Mr. Williams. Yes, it does.
    Mr. Smucker. The gas prices I am sure do. If there were--if 
we agreed that the American Rescue Plan caused that, would it 
have been worth it?
    Mr. Williams. Yes. It would have been worth it.
    Mr. Smucker. I can tell you--I can tell you that my 
constituents don't believe that.
    Mr. Williams. Yes.
    Mr. Smucker. I don't know about yours. But mine do not.
    Mr. Williams. Yes.
    Mr. Smucker. They would prefer to have an economy that is 
growing, an economy like you had before the pandemic when you 
said Union City was trending in the right direction by nearly 
every measure. That was not by accident. That was a result----
    Mr. Williams. No it wasn't.
    Mr. Smucker [continuing]. of work that you have done and of 
work that had been done on the federal level that helped to 
ensure that we had policies in place that allowed every 
community to benefit. So, these are important issues that we 
are talking about.
    Mr. Moore, appreciate your testimony. I think we need a 
better understanding of what causes inflation and maybe I want 
to get back to the basics. And the testimony of--I am sorry, 
Coronado, Dr. Coronado, she said U.S. core inflation rose 
earlier and higher than other advanced economies after 
inflation rose. This is her direct quote U.S. core inflation 
rose earlier and higher than other advanced economies. I have a 
chart that shows that. This is before Ukraine because there are 
obviously supply chain issues, Ukraine issues that do have an 
impact. But this was before that occurred.
    This is OECD countries. So, countries comparable to the 
U.S. The red is their inflation rate and look how the U.S. 
inflation rate jumped just after the American Rescue Plan. Can 
you tell me, Mr. Moore, how do governments cause inflation? 
What causes inflation?
    Mr. Moore. Well, if you just hold up--can you hold up that 
chart one more time?
    Mr. Smucker. Sure.
    Mr. Moore. Because it is remarkable. Look at the end of, 
you know, 2020. Look at where the--look at where the inflation 
rate just goes straight up under Biden. We had 1.4 percent 
inflation the month Trump left office. So, that is a pretty 
remarkable malfeasance.
    We hadn't had, Mr. Smucker, inflation for about 35 years in 
this country, you know. One of the reasons the U.S. got so well 
through the 1980's, 1990's, 2000's, and 2010's was we had very 
low inflation. Our inflation rate ranged from 2 to 3, maybe 
sometimes it would 4 percent, but we were in the sweet zone. 
And, look, what you want from monetary policy is very simple. 
You want a strong and stable currency.
    And by the way, just as an aside, I am very concerned about 
this idea that the Federal Reserve Board is going to get 
involved in, you know, climate change issues and race issues 
and so on. No. The Federal Reserve has to hold inflation down, 
stop----
    Mr. Smucker. Sure. OK. And I am sorry. I am out of time.
    Mr. Moore. I am sorry.
    Mr. Smucker. I would love to ask you some more questions. 
But you know what I am concerned about is the impact on the 
communities of Mayor Williams and other----
    Mr. Moore. Yes.
    Mr. Smucker [continuing]. communities across the country of 
inflation that is not tailing off.
    Mr. Moore. Right.
    Mr. Smucker. That the Fed is going to have a very difficult 
time dealing with that without causing a severe recession. So, 
we have hard times ahead as a direct result of policies that 
have been put in place by this Administration.
    Mr. Moore. Mr. Smucker, I believe in the first two years of 
the Biden Administration if we stay on the course we are on, we 
will see all of the median income gains that happened under 
Trump completely eliminated.
    Mr. Smucker. I am out of time. Thank you.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman's time has expired. I now 
recognize the gentleman from Massachusetts, Mr. Moulton, for 
five minutes. Is he on? Mr. Moulton? No. OK. We can't find Mr. 
Moulton. I now yield five minutes to the gentleman from Nevada, 
Mr. Horsford.
    Mr. Horsford. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman, for 
holding this hearing. And thank you to our esteemed witnesses 
for appearing before the Committee. I am actually glad that we 
have your expertise and incite to highlight just how 
fundamental the American Rescue Plan has been to our country's 
pandemic recovery. When my constituents sent me here to 
Congress, they expected me to deliver results. They sent me 
here with the dual mission this past two years of crushing the 
COVID pandemic and implementing an equitable recovery for 
working Americans.
    So, I am proud to say that I voted to pass the American 
Rescue Plan in the moment that it was needed. Not one of my 
colleagues, my Republican colleagues on the other side voted 
for that bill. What was their plan to crush the pandemic? What 
was their plan to help small businesses and entrepreneurs? What 
was their plan to help lift 50 percent of families out of 
poverty through the child tax credit? And what was their plan 
to help state and local governments who have been at the 
forefront of providing the response to crush the virus and to 
help with our economic recovery?
    When I talk to my mayors in my local governments, they tell 
me they used that money for what? Public safety. The only ones 
to defund law enforcement were the Republicans who voted no on 
the American Rescue Plan. That is the facts.
    Now, I didn't come here to defend every program. That is 
not what I came to Congress to do. I came to make sure that the 
federal programs that Congress approves and that the 
Administration implements works for my constituents. And there 
are areas that need to be improved. But when you don't even 
have a plan to address how you would crush the pandemic or 
ensure economic recovery that is equitable, I think that is a 
major problem.
    Now, by supporting America's entrepreneurs, the American 
Rescue Plan ensured that our country would be ready to grow 
when COVID was finally crushed. Would you agree, Dr. Coronado, 
that the American Rescue Plan positioned our economy on the 
path for growth by mitigating the worst impacts of the 
pandemic? And could you please speak to how aggressive fiscal 
policy may have lessoned the long-term scarring effects we 
often see after severe downturns.
    Dr. Coronado. Yes. Undeniably the American Rescue Plan and 
the fiscal support helped the economy recover even through the 
pandemic and now more as we move beyond it into the endemic 
phase. And I think that you are putting your finger on the most 
important aspect, which is the support to the labor market and 
getting people back to work when they are able and ready to do 
so. It did take, you know, we did lose participation and now 
that is roaring back. It is roaring back.
    Mr. Horsford. Yes.
    Dr.. CORONADO. And that is because people now are able and 
ready and they are actually able to come in and command higher 
wages, and better situations, more full-time work.
    Mr. Horsford. I agree.
    Dr. Coronado. So, there is a lot of things about the labor 
market that you highlight that, you know, last recovery we 
didn't do that. And people were out of the labor force for 
years, many years. We didn't see that recovery happen until 
seven years into the expansion----
    Mr. Horsford. And it is disproportionately----
    Dr. Coronado [continuing]. in participation.
    Mr. Horsford [continuing]. on women and people of color, 
which I think----
    Dr. Coronado. Absolutely.
    Mr. Horsford [continuing]. also speaks to where is your 
plan to help with an equitable recovery for every community?
    Now, one of the challenges that I continue to hear from in 
people in my district is the cost of living, affordable 
housing, with the cost of rent on the rise. People do still 
need help and that is why I applaud my home state of Nevada for 
allocating funding from the American Rescue Plan, which will 
now invest $500 million directly into affordable housing.
    Now, those solutions can take many different forms. But, 
Mayor Williams, will you please discuss the many ways in which 
municipalities have used ARP funding to help constituents with 
essentials, such as keeping food on the table or a roof over 
their head.
    Mr. Williams. Yes, sir. And thank you for that question. 
That was something that was so important to my community. 
Certainly, we had people who were at risk of evictions. We 
certainly used the funding to be able to stave those evictions 
off by helping with rental assistance. As well as mortgage 
assistance and utility assistance. Something as meaningful as 
being able to have your water service. Those are the things 
that we focused on. But also, assisting folks with being able 
to have money to go to the grocery store. Those were some of 
the things we have been dealing with.
    And now, this issue around access to internet. That was a 
big one in my community because, you know, many of my families 
had to drive their kids to the local McDonalds to sit on the 
parking lot to be able to receive access to Wi-Fi. Those were 
things we were focusing on to make sure that we assisted 
families to be able to pay for their internet bill if they had 
a service. But, you know, thanks to this affordable high-speed 
internet service that is coming, many families will receive 
that.
    But the everyday support, but the everyday need to keep 
families alive, those were the things we were focusing on in 
our communities.
    Mr. Horsford. Well, thank you for focusing----
    Mr. Williams. Thank you.
    Mr. Horsford [continuing]. on the American people. I yield 
back.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman's time has expired. I now 
recognize the gentleman from Texas, Dr. Burgess, for five 
minutes.
    Dr. Burgess. I thank the Chairman. I do feel the necessity 
in answering a couple of the questions that were just asked by 
my colleague from Nevada. If you will recall, March 21 of 2020, 
this Congress passed the CARES Act, the biggest single bill 
that I have ever seen in my tenure in Congress, was well north 
of $1 trillion. It was right at the beginning of the pandemic. 
We thought it was necessary to be able to withstand some of the 
blows that we were in line to receive from this terrible 
disease that was visited upon us by another country.
    But the damaging thing was not so much in just spending the 
money. I will still argue that the money was necessary. The 
damaging thing was we never went back and sort of looked at 
what was necessary. For example, I am a physician. We put $150 
billion in the Provider Relief Fund. Arguably a good thing. But 
we really didn't know what the dollar figure was to put into 
the Provider Relief Fund. We had no organized plan. I am also 
on the Energy and Commerce Committee. We are the major 
authorizing committee for healthcare expenditures. We never 
once had a hearing, a single hearing before or after passing 
that $1.1 trillion bill. We never had a single hearing of what 
was actually necessary to help our healthcare sector who had 
been delivered this terrible blow by the coronavirus.
    And as a consequence, we had funds that were unspent that 
were probably necessary somewhere else. And then in December, 
we come back and add more money on that of that. So, I would 
simply argue that the--Mr. Moore, I think, has pointed out that 
by June 2020, things were starting to stabilize. And our CBO 
Director, Mr. Swagel, has told us that the economy going into 
the coronavirus, and I think Mr. Mayor, you have kind of 
underscored this, going into the coronavirus, the economy was 
actually doing pretty darn well. As Jack Kemp taught us, the 
rising tide was lifting all boats. Then we were delivered this 
terrible blow.
    But honestly, to never go back and look at what we did, 
what was necessary, if more is necessary, we can have that 
discussion. But then here is the real damaging thing, we get to 
February 2021, and we pass a $1.9 trillion bill that is 
entirely partisan. It is passed under reconciliation. 
Guaranteed that we are going to have----
    VOICE. Will the gentleman yield?
    Dr. Burgess. No, I will not. You can get your Chairman to 
yield to. I am sure he will. Guaranteed that it was going to be 
a partisan exercise and that no voices on the Republican side 
would be heard. And yet, you can see just by the--just by the 
attendance here today in this hearing, yes, on the Republican 
side, we are terribly interested in what this bill was going to 
do and what this bill did do.
    And here is the other part of the problem. When you passed 
that bill in February 2021, right, you are not a 
prognosticator. You don't know what is going to happen in 
August. But what if you have the most humiliating defeat that 
the United States has ever encountered in the country of 
Afghanistan and the leader absconds with all the money, and 
then because we all know from President Reagan that weakness is 
provocative. And then you see the invasion of Ukraine, which 
anybody could have predicted because the Russian Army was 
aggregated around the borders. What did you think was going to 
happen?
    So, what was your plan for this? Well, turns out there was 
no plan. We were told by the same geniuses who couldn't predict 
Afghanistan, we were told by those same folks that Ukraine 
would fall in three days. Three days Kyiv would be under the 
control of the Russians. Completely underestimating the fact 
that Ukrainians have showed the past and shown again repeatedly 
that they are willing to fight for their own homeland.
    So, look, forgive me if I am skeptical about some of the 
discourse that we have heard here this morning. It almost 
sounds like we are stuck in a Charles Dickens novel. It is the 
best of times. It is the worst of times. But, Mr. Moore, let me 
just give you the last word here. You have been through all 
this. You saw it from the inside of the administration. You saw 
what was going to happen. You are bound to have had misgivings 
as you saw what this Committee was going to do in February of 
last year.
    Mr. Moore. Well, let me just give you one example of the 
kind of crazy spending priorities in this bill. So, we spent 
more money under the American Recovery Act on subsidizing the 
New York subway system than we did on therapies and treatments. 
I mean, how lunatic is that, really? I mean, talk about a, you 
know, misallocation of resources.
    I urge you. I urge all of the members of this panel, we 
spent $1.9 trillion. There was a front-page story in the New 
York Times about three or four weeks ago, $140 billion, not a 
$140 million, $140 billion was ripped off from the unemployment 
benefit program. That didn't stimulate the American economy. It 
stimulated economies in Africa and South America. Half of the 
fraudsters didn't even live in the United States. So, can we 
please do a thorough investigation of what happened in the 
Medicaid funding? Unemployment insurance program, the food 
stamp program. You mentioned the rental assistance program. The 
fraud rates were 20 percent in a lot of these programs. A 
private sector program has about a 2 percent fraud rate. We 
cannot allow that to persist.
    Dr. Burgess. We cannot allow. Thank you, Mr. Moore. Thank 
you, Mr. Chairman. I will yield back.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman's time has expired. I now 
recognize the gentleman from Massachusetts, Mr. Moulton, for 
five minutes.
    Mr. Moulton. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. You know, I would 
like to point out that in any piece of legislation, there are 
going to be problems. There are going to be--there is going to 
be fraud that needs to be investigated. But let's not lose the 
bigger picture here. You know, Representative Smucker, my 
colleague who just spoke, saw Lancaster, a city in his district 
and his hometown, receive more than $36 million from the ARP to 
prevent layoffs, to boost the local economy. Dr. Burgess' 
district received more than $52 million in ARPA dollars. In 
fact, Ranking Member Smith, Missouri received nearly $1 
billion.
    All of you have gone and talked about the investments that 
you have made all over the country. In fact, it is amazing that 
Republicans all across America can't seem to stop promoting the 
benefits of the American Rescue Plan that they continue to 
oppose.
    In my home district in Lynn, Massachusetts, the largest 
city, they have been able to make a generational investment to 
improve the quality of the lives of residents through 
affordable housing, food security, entrepreneurship, small 
business assistance, work force development, including 
childcare and digital access. Mental and behavioral health, so 
critical in this pandemic, and environmental investments in 
infrastructure, as well.
    Mayor Williams, could you just talk briefly about your 
city's experience with the pandemic and what would have been 
the impact to your city's local economy if not for the American 
Rescue Plan?
    Mr. Williams. Thank you, sir. The economy in my city would 
have certainly continued to do as many communities have, and 
that is collapse. I do have to say the city of Union City was 
one of the highest in the metro Atlanta area as it relates to 
COVID. We had some of the highest case rates. And that is not 
something to be proud of. You know, I mean, we are a 
municipality of less than 30,000 individuals. But we were 
always at the top when it came to COVID cases. But also, being 
making sure that our individuals in our community had access to 
healthcare. You know, the biggest problem we had was getting 
people tested, getting people to physicians, or hospitals that 
could treat them.
    You know, so, those have been some of the biggest 
challenges we had during the COVID, the early----
    Mr. Moulton. OK. Thank you.
    Mr. Williams [continuing]. stages of COVID. Thank you.
    Mr. Moulton. Thank you very much. And let me just say that 
just because many of my Republican colleagues are hypocritical 
here about this Rescue Plan and the investments that have been 
able to make in their communities as well, it doesn't mean they 
are all wrong. I will agree as a Democrat that the ARP has 
impacted the current inflation rate. But it is also important 
to understand the broader context globally, as well as the 
recession that we would have likely faced if not for this 
legislation. I mean, inflation has been across the world, 
primarily from pandemic disruptions, Russia's invasion of 
Ukraine. I mean, even before the ARP passed, as Marc Goldwein 
on the Committee for Responsible Budget noted, ``The seeds for 
a high inflation environment were already planted.''
    Right now, we are experiencing inflation with low 
unemployment and high growth. And if not for global issues such 
as the invasion of Ukraine, we wouldn't be seeing negative wage 
growth. Dr. Coronado, is the American Rescue Plan responsible 
for the 8.1 percent inflation rate in Europe?
    Dr. Coronado. I am sorry. It is certainly worth, you know, 
not the majority, not even close to the majority of the 
inflation we are seeing right now.
    Mr. Moulton. OK. Is the ARP responsible for the oil prices 
set on the international market, for the price of oil, which is 
set internationally?
    Dr. Coronado. No, clearly not. Or the food prices.
    Mr. Moulton. OK. Isn't it true that if the ARP wasn't 
enacted, we would likely have entered into a global economic 
recession with serious ramifications or a recession for America 
with serious ramifications for the global economy?
    Dr. Coronado. We were still in a very precarious situation, 
yes. We had started to see positive economic growth in the U.S. 
But the global recovery was far more fragile and remains more 
fragile. And, yes, without the fiscal support, especially in 
light of the repeated waves of COVID that were stressing 
communities and public health----
    Mr. Moulton. U.S. growth is set to surpass China for the 
first time since 1976.
    Dr. Coronado. Yes.
    Mr. Moulton. Forecasts suggests U.S. GDP will grow by 2.8 
percent this year compared with just 2 percent in China. Dr. 
Coronado, did we see this during the Trump or even the Reagan 
Administrations, U.S. growth path higher than China?
    Dr. Coronado. No, we did not.
    Mr. Moulton. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I yield back.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman's time has expired. I now 
recognize the gentlewoman from Colorado, Ms. Boebert, for five 
minutes.
    Mrs. Boebert. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And thank you to the 
witnesses who showed up. I would have loved to have seen some 
members from the Biden Administration from the Executive here 
today to speak on this. But today, the House Budget Committee 
will be playing along with Speaker Pelosi's con game of titling 
a bill something magnificent and then loading it with a bunch 
of liberal wish list items. And then claiming success on that 
legislation. And, you know, I would probably actually be a yes 
vote on a lot more legislation that we see in the House of 
Representatives if the language in the bill actually matched 
the title.
    It has been just over a year since Joe Biden signed the $2 
trillion so-called American Rescue Plan into law that 
incentivizes lockdowns. Paid workers to stay home. Gave 
stimulus checks to government employees who are at no risk of 
losing their jobs. And really fueled the fire of inflation this 
crisis that American families are now paying the price for. 
American families are paying the price for bad policy.
    And this chart that I have here it shows exactly what that 
bill did for the cost of goods and services. You see that 
there.
    You cannot force millions of Americans out of the work 
force and then allow them to go back to work and call that job 
creation. You cannot treat the American people like your own 
personal slush fund. It has been said before but one day you 
will run out of other people's money to spend.
    Since the passage of this blue state bailout, the Biden 
White House has claimed the ``the economy is in a better place 
than it has been historically.'' Well, I am curious, is it the 
highest inflation of my lifetime? The highest gas prices in 
American history? Or a shrinking GDP that would cause Jen 
Psaki's replacement to make such an outrageous claim?
    Under President Trump, which I would like to pause and just 
say, happy birthday to my all-time favorite president. But gas 
prices were less than half of what they are today. GDP had 
positive growth. And moms and dads had formula to feed their 
babies. I miss and the American people miss the Trump economy. 
Not only was the so-called American Rescue Plan entirely 
unnecessary, but it was riddled with swampy deals for Biden's 
political allies in blue states and did not include commonsense 
protections to mitigate fraud.
    Less than 9 percent of this $2 trillion sham went to 
anything COVID-related. Now, the average American family is 
paying the price for these failed policies. And that price is 
$5,200 per year. Heck, if you are a senior living on fixed 
income, Joe Biden's economy it is a death sentence.
    Mr. Moore, I have a question for you, if you don't mind. 
With just a brief answer, if you were advising Joe Biden on how 
to make our economy as weak as possible, what would you tell 
him to change?
    Mr. Moore. I am sorry. To make it as strong as possible?
    Mrs. Boebert. As weak. If you were advising him, make 
America's economy weak, what would you have him change?
    Mr. Moore. Well, I would do pretty much what we have done. 
I mean, this idea that somehow we are in a recovery right now, 
I just looked at the numbers, the latest numbers for the GDP 
forecast for the second quarter, there is a 0.9 percent. We had 
1.5 percent in the first quarter. So, if you put those numbers 
together, for the first half of 2021, we have had negative 
growth. What recovery are you all talking about? There is no 
recovery in the economy. We are negative. We are negative for 
the first half of the year after spending $1.9 trillion.
    Mrs. Boebert. Yes. Mr. Moore, thank you so much for laying 
that out. Actually, I would love to give a copy of Trumponomics 
to everyone here on the Budget Committee. I think that would be 
something that everyone would----
    Mr. Moore. I have got copies available.
    Mrs. Boebert [continuing]. really finish it. There you go. 
We will get you some signed copies over there.
    Mr. Mayor Vince Williams, can you please tell me what bird 
sanctuaries, a beachside 800 room luxury hotel, pickle ball 
courts, ski resorts, and Halloween festivals have in common?
    Mr. Williams. I have no idea. I don't have either of those 
in my city.
    Mrs. Boebert. Well, your city is paying for them, Mr. 
Williams. Mayor Williams, each of these non-COVID health-
related projects was paid for by state and local governments 
with COVID-19 aid. Washington politics--Washington politicians 
are addicted to spending. We don't have a revenue problem. We 
have a spending problem. And this addiction, like the American 
Rescue Plan is causing, it is similar to parmesan cheese and 
Hunter Biden. Thanks, and I yield back.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentlewoman's time has expired. I now 
recognize the gentleman from New York, Mr. Jeffries, for five 
minutes.
    Mr. Jeffries. I thank the distinguished hair of the Budget 
Committee. To the extent that there is a public policy problem 
in Washington, DC, Exhibit A was the GOP tax scam. That is the 
Republican singular signature piece of legislative 
accomplishment relative to the economy that occurred during the 
prior Administration. Eighty-three percent of the benefits went 
to the wealthiest 1 percent saddling our country with 
approximately $2 trillion worth of unnecessary debt simply to 
subsidize the live styles of the rich and shameless. That is 
problematic economics.
    I am thankful that we have a president who leaned in to 
lifting up the economy for every day Americans beginning with 
the American Rescue Plan. A few questions for you, Dr. 
Coronado. Thank you for your presence here. I thank all of the 
witnesses for testifying here today.
    The unemployment rate in January 2021, when President Biden 
left office was approximately 6.3 percent. Is that correct?
    Dr. Coronado. That is right.
    Mr. Jeffries. And today, with the American Rescue Plan in 
effect, under President Biden's leadership, the unemployment 
rate has dropped to 3.6 percent. Is that correct?
    Dr. Coronado. That is where it is, yes.
    Mr. Jeffries. And that means that millions of Americans are 
actually back to work being able to provide for their families. 
Is that correct?
    Dr. Coronado. That is right. We have been creating millions 
of jobs a year.
    Mr. Jeffries. And approximately how many jobs have actually 
been created since President Biden came into office in January 
2021?
    Dr. Coronado. I have don't have that number but it is 
several million.
    Mr. Jeffries. Yes, I believe the number is 8.7 million jobs 
since----
    Dr. Coronado. Yes. That sounds about right.
    Mr. Jeffries [continuing]. President Bident came into 
office. And that is a record in American Presidential history--
--
    Dr. Coronado. That is a record.
    Mr. Jeffries [continuing]. for a similar period of time. 
That is a significant development. And that is meaningful 
progress for the American people. Is it fair to say that the 
American Rescue Plan was able to head off a wave of evictions 
as well as a foreclosure crisis that could have devastated 
American families all across this country?
    Dr. Coronado. Absolutely. Absolutely.
    Mr. Jeffries. Now, the American Rescue Plan, which was a 
necessary intervention at a time when the economy was on the 
brink of collapse. Absent that level of intervention, what are 
the possibilities--there are some economists who express grave 
concerns that at the time, we could lapse into perhaps a great 
recession. Was that a reasonable concern at the time, absent 
the type of intervention that occurred relative to the American 
Rescue Plan?
    Dr. Coronado. Yes. I mean, we were in the deepest recession 
since the Great Depression during the middle of the pandemic. 
And had we not provided the various waves of fiscal support we 
would not have had a quick recovery. In fact, most economists 
of all institutions and of all stripes were expecting a very 
prolonged and painful and difficult recovery before that fiscal 
support was provided. And you would have had a lot more lasting 
disconnect from the labor force, more failures of businesses, 
more people losing their homes. Much as we saw immediately 
after the housing crash in the Great Recession.
    A lot of the thinking was that the recovery would look like 
that and that was very halting and slow. And the main 
difference is the fiscal approach that was taken during this 
episode that to err on the side of supporting people, giving 
them both targeted interventions like rent support and health 
support, as well as just cash to determine what they needed to 
spend that cash on has led to a variety of benefits, including, 
you know, best credit, best wage gains, best credit scores, 
best wage gains for lower-income households that we have ever 
seen.
    Mr. Jeffries. Thank you. And, certainly, there are issues 
that we need to continue to work on and we are doing that as 
Democrats in terms of lowering costs for everyday Americans. 
But the American Rescue Plan was absolutely necessary and 
decisive in trying to put us into a better space both on the 
economic side and as it relates to the public health crisis. 
Less than 2 million Americans fully vaccinated when President 
Biden took office. Now, there are more than 225 million 
Americans fully vaccinated, giving us the opportunity to march 
toward normalcy.
    I thank you, Mr. Chairman. I thank the witnesses for their 
presence. And I yield back.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman's time has expired. I now 
recognize the gentleman from Virginia, Mr. Good, for five 
minutes.
    Mr. Good. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Mr. Moore, I 
don't think you can potentially overestimate how important your 
presence is here today to try to educate the Democrat majority 
on basic economics, basic budget principles. Just to refer to 
something that was said by the previous speaker, you cannot 
give tax cuts to those who don't pay taxes. That, of course, 
would be welfare basically. You are paying people beyond what 
they earn. Because it was said, hey, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, 
you know, most of the benefits were to higher income earners.
    Speaking of revenues from the tax cuts, what was the impact 
from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act? What happened to tax 
revenues when those--when tax rates were reduced, what happened 
to overall revenues?
    Mr. Moore. So, one of the kind of it is important for 
people to understand exactly what we did. Because I helped 
design that with Larry Kudlow and Art Laffer and, obviously, 
Trump was heavily engaged in this. But the whole idea was we 
had the highest business taxes in the world. You know, that 
just doesn't make America competitive. We all want to create 
jobs, right? You know, the United States having a business tax 
rate that was in some cases 20 percentage points higher than 
all the countries we were competing with. As I used to say to 
Donald Trump, that is a Head Start program for every program we 
are competing with.
    So, we brought that rate down from virtually the highest in 
the world. By the way, think about that. Five years ago, the 
United States had the highest business tax rate in the world 
and we cut it to below the average. And we saw enormous gains, 
you know, as mentioned. Lowest unemployment rate, lowest 
poverty rate for every group. The idea that 83 percent of the 
benefits went to the top 1 percent is just fallacious. We saw 
gains throughout the economy.
    And there was just a piece in the Wall Street Journal about 
two weeks ago, sir. I will get that for the record. That showed 
low and behold, guess what has happened to corporate tax 
receipts in the last two years? They have gone way up. So, 
there was--and I didn't even expect this. I thought we would 
see a revenue loss, but I just thought it would be good for the 
economy. But we actually saw a gain in corporate tax revenues 
even though we lowered the rates. Pretty amazing.
    Mr. Good. Wonderful job. And thank you for confirming that. 
You know, I submit that the majority party here if you could 
demonstrate that cutting taxes on higher income earners would 
grow the pie, increase revenue for the government, the 
government could do more things, they would be against it just 
because they don't think it is right to cut taxes for people 
who make too much and because they believe that it is unfair, 
if you will.
    It is incredible, frankly, that the Dem majority would hold 
a hearing to defend the ARP, the American so-called Rescue 
Plan, and their disastrous economic policies. Democrats have 
two choices. They can admit failure, apologize, and change 
course. Or they can do what they are doing, which is double 
down, lie about the impact of their spending programs, their 
economic programs, and try to fool the American people.
    As we know, less than 9 percent of the massive $2 trillion 
in the ARP was actually directed to combat the China virus. The 
rest of it was wasted. That is what the federal government does 
best, of course. And it actually increased inflation, decreased 
job growth, increased welfare, and dependency. Of course, 
massively increased the deficit.
    Can you point to--do you think that--and I know you feel 
like you are on repeat, but repetition is the key to learning. 
Hopefully, the other side is listening to this. Can you point 
to how the ARP has helped or hindered the job recovery over the 
last year? It is amazing they crushed the economy. They 
eliminate more jobs. They make it impossible for employers to 
operate their businesses for people to go to work. They fire 
workers for not getting a vaccine.
    So, they crushed the economy, eliminate millions of jobs 
like has never happened in the history of the country. And now 
they want credit because they say they created jobs. federal 
government didn't create any jobs. All they can do is create an 
environment as you did during the Trump Administration that 
facilities or allows businesses to do that. But do you think 
that the American Rescue Plan helped or hindered America's job 
recovery over the last year? The ARP itself, did it help or 
hinder the job recovery over the last year?
    Mr. Moore. Sorry, is that for me?
    Mr. Good. That is to you. Yes, sir.
    Mr. Moore. If you look at figure 5 in my testimony, this is 
really important about what happened with the American economy. 
Starting in late 2020, the red states opened up their 
economies. They didn't need any fiscal help. They opened up 
their businesses. They opened the restaurants, their stores, 
their churches, their playgrounds, their blah, blah, blah. 
There were no negative health effects to that.
    And if you look at this chart, you see the 10--there is now 
roughly 10 states, sir, that are actually above the employment 
level they had before pandemic. Guess what? Every single one of 
them is a red state that opened up their economy.
    I will read to you. Utah, Idaho, Montana, Texas, Florida, 
North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Arizona, Arkansas, South 
Dakota. There is one actually blue state, Colorado. They 
handled it pretty well. Look at the states at the bottom. New 
York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, these states kept their--the 
way we should have stimulated the economy was by getting these 
blue states to open up their businesses. They refused to do it 
and that is why they needed trillions of dollars from the 
federal government.
    Mr. Good. The Democrats' policies did not crush the virus. 
They crushed the economy. And the state with the highest per 
average age in the country, Florida, was aggressive in opening 
up----
    Mr. Moore. Exactly right.
    Mr. Good [continuing]. and, of course, we did not have a 
negative impact on Florida in terms of the China virus----
    Mr. Moore. That is exactly right.
    Mr. Good [continuing]. impact. So, thank you, Mr. Moore. I 
yield back.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman's time has expired. I now 
recognize the gentlewoman from California, Ms. Chu, for five 
minutes.
    Ms. Chu. Ms. Parrott, as a Member of the Ways and Means 
Committee, I want to draw attention to something we worked on 
as an aspect of the American Rescue Plan that made a 
considerable impact on the lives of working Americans. The 
American Rescue Plan increased affordability of health 
coverage, enhancing the advanced premium tax credit for the ACA 
plans. And this ensured that working families could continue to 
access health insurance throughout the pandemic. And included 
eliminating the so-called cliff that families who made just 
over the subsidy cutoff, which is $110,000 per year for a 
family of four.
    Can you talk about the impact of these affordability 
measures? And with these important tax credits set to expire at 
the end of this year, could you discuss who would be most 
likely to see their monthly premiums go up?
    Ms. Parrott. Yes, thanks so much for the question. The 
Rescue Plan reduced or eliminated premium costs for most 
marketplace enrollees and helped spur record marketplace 
enrollment. If these enhancements had not--if these 
enhancements are not extended, the large majority of the 14 \1/
2\ million people who signed up for marketplace coverage this 
year, will either lose coverage or pay significantly more in 
premiums in 2023. According to estimates by both the Urban 
Institute and HHS, about 3 million people would lose coverage 
and become uninsured. Over 10 million additional people would 
remain insured but see their premium subsidies reduced or 
eliminated entirely, according to HHS estimates.
    These premium costs increase would make coverage much less 
affordable at a time when people are struggling with increased 
costs for food, housing, and other basics. For example, the 
Urban Institute estimates that subsidized marketplace enrollees 
with incomes between 150 and 400 percent of poverty, which is 
hard to know what that means, so, let me break it down. About 
$20,000 to $54,000 for an individual would pay over $1,000 more 
per person in annual premiums. A 60-year-old couple making 
$75,000 would see annual marketplace premium costs more than 
triple, rising from about $6,400 to more than $22,000.
    The premium spikes may also coincide with the end of the 
federal public health emergency when millions of Medicaid 
enrollees made no longer eligible for Medicaid coverage, will 
need to secure coverage in the marketplace, making those 
premium tax credits incredibly important for assuring that they 
seamlessly are able to access coverage. The expiration of those 
premium tax credits would drive up the rate of uninsured, which 
we have actually made progress in driving down the rate of 
uninsured over the last year because of both the Medicaid 
continuous coverage provision, as well as the expansion in 
premium tax credits.
    Ms. Chu. Well, Ms. Parrott, let me ask about--and thank you 
for that answer. Another thing that I think was very, very 
beneficial. We, in the Ways and Means Committee are proud of 
the tax credits that we enhanced like the child tax credit. And 
there was another tax credit that had a major positive impact, 
not only in the finances of struggling businesses, but on our 
ability to fight the pandemic. The American Rescue Plan created 
paid family and sick leave tax credits that reimbursed 
employers who offered their workers paid time off because of 
the COVID pandemic. And to be eligible, businesses needed to 
give employees paid leave to quarantine, get a vaccine, find a 
test, or care for a family member or child.
    Can you talk about the impact that this paid leave had on 
both employers who claimed the credits and workers who were 
able to take the time they needed to care for themselves and 
their families without losing their jobs or their paycheck? And 
what lessons can we learn from these credits as Democrats work 
to pass a national comprehensive paid leave plan?
    Ms. Parrott. Yes. You know, paid leave is a really good 
example of a place where because of our underlying policies, we 
tried, with some success, to sort of fix things for purposes of 
the crisis. So, we added some temporary paid leave measures. 
And for those who were able to benefit, I think those measures 
were quite helpful, both in stabilizing families' incomes when 
they needed to take time off and helping employers and 
employees stay connected.
    But the real--and you talked about this at the end of your 
question--the reality is that the United States stands alone 
among most wealthy nations in the world in not having paid 
family, some kind of paid family medical leave program for 
workers. And because of that, when people are unable to work 
because they need to care for their own illness or an illness 
in their family or welcome a new child into their household, 
too often they are forced to separate from their jobs. That is 
bad for the economy and it is bad for families.
    And so, you know, trying to shoehorn something during the 
pandemic provided some help to some people, and that is really 
important. But the real path forward is getting to a place 
where all workers have access to paid family medical leave when 
they need it.
    Ms. Chu. Thank you.
    Chairman Yarmuth. Thank you. The----
    Ms. Chu. I yield back.
    Chairman Yarmuth. Yes. The gentlewoman's time has expired. 
I now recognize the gentleman from California, Mr. Obernolte, 
for five minutes.
    Mr. Obernolte. Thank you, Mr. Chair. Dr. Coronado, in your 
testimony you said something I completely agree with. You said 
that diagnosing the drivers of inflation is key to crafting a 
response to it. And you have answered a couple of questions 
about this already. And I was interested when in explaining why 
the United States has a substantially higher inflation rate 
than other countries, you said that you thought that deficit 
government spending, including the American Rescue Plan, was 
not even close to being the predominant cause.
    Several weeks ago, the San Francisco branch of the Federal 
Reserve issued a report in which they were investigating why 
the United States has a higher interest rate--higher inflation 
rate than other countries. And they reached the opposite 
conclusion. They concluded that deficit government spending 
here, in particular, the American Rescue Plan, was the 
predominant cause of why inflation was higher here than in 
other countries. Have you read that report? And do you disagree 
with it?
    Dr. Coronado. I am familiar with that report. And since the 
data that was used for that report, we have seen a pretty 
marked acceleration in core inflation across other countries. 
So, in some senses, that finding is stale.
    Mr. Obernolte. OK.
    Dr. Coronado. That now that gap----
    Mr. Obernolte. OK. Well, it sounds like the they are 
talking apples and oranges here. They were talking about why 
last year the----
    Dr. Coronado. Right.
    Mr. Obernolte [continuing]. United States had higher 
inflation than other countries.
    Dr. Coronado. Correct.
    Mr. Obernolte. You are saying it doesn't matter now because 
everyone has high inflation.
    Dr. Coronado. Well, we have----
    Mr. Obernolte. I am talking about why----
    Dr. Coronado. We have to keep----
    Mr. Obernolte [continuing]. why we got out ahead.
    Dr. Coronado. We have to keep learning about from the 
incoming data and what we are seeing is that there is a 
considerable rise in inflation across countries. As you saw 
some of these charts that have been presented, there is not--
there sometimes is a lag between when things happen. And what 
we have seen is that a lot of this supply chain inflation, 
other countries because their recoveries were delayed, the U.S. 
recovery was strong and early. Other recoveries was delayed so, 
as that spending came forward, you did start to see that supply 
chain inflation take hold too.
    So, I am not one to say it had no impact. There is an 
impact. And there is also a benefit. There is a cost and a 
benefit----
    Mr. Obernolte. Right.
    Dr. Coronado [continuing]. to providing very strong 
support. So, I am not saying there is no impact or that there 
isn't a meaningful cause in the wedge. The wedge that I 
estimate now is, you know, maybe a percentage point.
    Mr. Obernolte. Well, let's talk about it worldwide then.
    Dr. Coronado. Mm-hmm.
    Mr. Obernolte. So, you know, the WTO has been looking at 
this same issue.
    Dr. Coronado. Mm-hmm.
    Mr. Obernolte. You know, from a worldwide perspective, not 
just a U.S. centric perspective.
    Dr. Coronado. Mm-hmm.
    Mr. Obernolte. And Robert Koopman, who is the chief 
economist at the WTO, has estimated that between, he says, 2/3 
and 3/4 of supply shortages worldwide are a result of excess 
demand resulting from government spending. So, do you agree or 
disagree with that?
    Dr. Coronado. So, there is more--I put more weight on the 
first part of that and less on the second part of that. So, 
remember, a very key development in the pandemic globally was 
the shift to goods spending over services spending. So, that is 
unprecedented. We have not seen that kind of shift in consumer 
spending in our lifetimes ever since, actually, the last time 
we saw this kind of shift was World War II.
    Mr. Obernolte. Sure, but the WTO is saying that that is a 
result of all of this excess money being injected into 
worldwide economies.
    Dr. Coronado. So, that is the part that I take more issue 
with.
    Mr. Obernolte. OK. Well, I mean, so, you disagree with the 
Federal Reserve. You disagree with the WTO. The CBO, well, you 
know, we are not going to get into that.
    Dr. Coronado. The Federal Reserve is a big system with 
hundreds of economists all of which have an opinion. So, you 
know, there are different--there are--I agree with the Federal 
Reserve and disagree with the Federal Reserve----
    Mr. Obernolte. Right.
    Dr. Coronado [continuing]. depending on the analysts we are 
talking about.
    Mr. Obernolte. Yes. I understand. But, I mean, I think 
that--and this isn't a question. You know, I don't think it is 
an exaggeration to say the majority of economists now would 
acknowledge that government spending has played a substantial 
role, if not the predominant role, in catalyzing the growth of 
inflation.
    This leads me to my last question, which I will go to Ms. 
Parrott. And this is, you know, it has been an interesting 
hearing. We have got these two ideas and tension, which is what 
Dr. Coronado was just talking about. You know, the fact that 
the American Rescue Plan undoubtedly catalyzed this round of 
inflation. We can argue about how much. But undoubtedly 
contributed to it, if not caused it. And you have testified 
that the American Rescue Plan was, what you said, the most 
substantial antipoverty legislation since 1935.
    So, you know, here is the question. Was it worth it? Was 
this round of inflation that is leading the interest rate 
hikes. The Fed is meeting today. You know, was it worth that, 
you know, had that result for the good that the legislation 
did?
    Ms. Parrott. So, I think you set up a false counterfactual. 
So, right, the American Rescue Plan helped strengthen the 
recovery, reduced unemployment, lots more people working. I 
agree with Dr. Coronado. I think it is--I wouldn't say that it 
had no effect on inflation. But I do think we would be facing 
high inflation today regardless of whether we had the American 
Rescue Plan. But I also think that in the absence of the 
American Rescue Plan, we would have had more kids in poverty. 
We would have seen a spike in evictions. We would have seen a 
lot of people struggling.
    And so, I am not going to speak to a false counterfactual 
that I don't think is accurate. But I will say is that the 
American Rescue Plan made an enormous difference in the lives 
of tens of millions of people and in communities across the 
country.
    Mr. Obernolte. All right. Well, I see that I am out of 
time. It is interesting discussion. But here is, you know, what 
really, really depresses me about this argument is that, you 
know, you also have to consider the effects of inflation on the 
impoverished here in America. And it has been said that 
inflation is one of the most regressive taxes because it 
disproportionately affects the people who can least afford to 
pay for it. And, you know, we are in a situation now where----
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman's time has----
    Mr. Obernolte. Yes, sir.
    Chairman Yarmuth [continuing]. long expired.
    Mr. Obernolte. All right. OK. Well, thank you,----
    Chairman Yarmuth. Yes.
    Mr. Obernolte [continuing]. for the--thank you, Mr. 
Chairman, for the extra time.
    Chairman Yarmuth. All right. The gentleman's time has 
expired. I now recognize the gentlewoman from the U.S. Virgin 
Islands, Ms. Plaskett, for five minutes.
    Ms. Plaskett. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, for this hearing. 
Thank you for the ability to question the witnesses. I find it 
so interesting and specious that one of the witnesses say that 
we should take advice from Donald Trump, who before coming to 
the presidency, was a failed businessman. Who had companies 
that went bankrupt. That is who we are supposed to take 
business advice from?
    The most recent hearings have shown that not only is he a 
failed businessman, but he is a con artist, who created a slush 
fund off of the backs of American people through his attempt to 
overthrow our government through January 6. So, will I take 
advice from someone like that? I think not. And I think our 
country is better off without having him as the leader of our 
country at this point.
    You know, we have had a lot of discussions about child tax 
credit and the American Rescue Plan and what it has or has not 
done. For people living and families living in the U.S. Virgin 
Islands, by extending the child tax credit to the territories 
and providing that funding, there has been an enormous 
uplifting of children that are living in poverty.
    Ms. Parrott, would you explain to us how the Medicaid 
provisions and the reconciliation bill passed by the House 
Democrats in November 2021 would improve access to healthcare 
and equity for low-income Americans living in the territories?
    Ms. Parrott. Yes, thank you for your question. This issue 
doesn't always get the attention that it deserves. The Medicaid 
provisions in the 2021 House Reconciliation bill ensures that 
people in U.S. territories can continue to get the healthcare 
they need by increasing Medicaid funding to the territories, 
which unlike states, receive capped federal funding for 
Medicaid that can and sometimes does run out. The bill passed 
by the House included a permanent increase to the block grants 
as well as the--as well as an increase in the federal 
government's share of Medicaid funding for the territories.
    Now, I want to be clear. The bill did not provide full 
parity with State Medicaid programs because it would continue 
to provide annual allotments of federal funds rather than the 
kind of open-ended funding stream that states receive to meet 
their residents' healthcare. Ultimately, parity is what people 
in the territories need and deserve. But the amount of the 
House-passed allotments along with the realistic growth factor 
based on actual Medicaid costs and the increase in the federal 
government's share of their Medicaid costs, would provide the 
stable and adequate funding the territories need to bring them 
closer to what states provide by increasing eligibility 
benefits and provider payments. This is a key, core equity 
issue. And I thank you for the question.
    Ms. Plaskett. Thank you. You know, we are talking about 
children. We also, of course, have to then talk about working 
parents. One of my colleagues talked about not being able to go 
to restaurants. But we know from many working families the 
ability to have proper childcare is still not there. The 
pandemic has affected childcare. Has affected those children 
who are not vaccinated. Who families do not feel safe bringing 
them or do not have the support for them to go back to work. 
Not all of us has had the luxury of working from home. Many of 
us have had to go to work in some instances and had to find 
childcare.
    Childcare providers were also hit very hard. Many closed or 
could not keep talented staff who were struggling through the 
pandemic as well. Again, Ms. Parrott, how has the childcare and 
development block grant helped working parents afford their 
childcare?
    Ms. Parrott. So, the childcare development block grant, 
which sometimes we wrongly shorthand as CCDBG, which is hard to 
say and remember, provides funding to states that allows them 
to provide subsidies to parents with low earnings to cover the 
cost of childcare. And it also does a lot to actually improve 
the quality of childcare for all children.
    CCDBG provides critical but underfunded support to state 
childcare programs. And most families eligible, most families 
eligible for childcare assistance don't get it because of 
inadequate resources.
    During the pandemic as you mention, many childcare 
providers closed or reduced their capacity. And when parents 
were ready to come back to work, many couldn't find childcare 
or they couldn't afford it. When families can't access quality 
affordable childcare, they are left with really quite terrible 
choices. Stop working or reduce hours, which is often 
impossible to do and make ends meet. Or use more informal, 
lower quality care. The American Rescue Plan provided $39 
billion in additional childcare funding, including funding for 
CCDBG, as well as funding for stabilization grants.
    This was incredibly important. It helped shore up the 
childcare providers. It helped people stay in business or 
expand capacity. It also expanded help to families. Raising 
eligibility thresholds, reducing co-pays, and also, increased 
compensation for childcare workers who I think along with those 
municipal workers that Mayor Williams talked about, are true 
heroes----
    Ms. Plaskett. Thank you.
    Ms. Parrott [continuing]. of this time period.
    Ms. Plaskett. I have run of time. But, you know, if my 
colleagues who I understand are so concerned with the life a 
child, let's make sure that we do that throughout the child's 
life, even after they are born. And I yield back.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentlewoman's time has expired. I now 
recognize the gentleman from Florida, Mr. Donalds, for five 
minutes.
    Mr. Donalds. Thanks, Mr. Chairman. Witnesses, panelists, 
thanks for being here. I find it interesting that we are 
talking about the American Rescue Plan since it just didn't 
work, guys. I mean, come on, we got a--I am a finance guy by 
trade. I just got to Capitol Hill.
    Couple things. I know the witnesses have said previously 
that the benefits of the American Rescue Plan have been the 
potential evictions of people not having enough money to pay 
rents, decrease in child poverty, and those are like the big 
two. Well, we will come back to that. Give me a second. We will 
get there.
    But it is without question that the American Rescue Plan 
has led to inflation. Every economist basically has said this. 
I mean, look, if you want to talk about inflation, you have a 
lot of money going to people. Right, wrong, or indifferent, 
money went to people. They didn't have to earn it. Which means 
productivity in the economy is actually down. So, people have 
money, but productivity is down.
    But when people take that money to go spend it, I mean, 
yes, Doctor, this is kind of how this works. When they take the 
money to go spend it in an economy where productivity is down 
because there is not enough supply of goods and services 
available, prices then go up in response. Because productivity 
is down but everybody has got money. That is how we get to 
inflation.
    The job market. Let's talk about that one real briefly. 
Yes, coming out of the time when the American economy was shut 
down by government policy because of COVID-19, the job market 
suffered major hits. But it is virtually without question that 
in the red states that had opened up--I am the gentleman from 
Florida, I know--the job market actually responded quite well 
to businesses being able to open up and operate. It was in blue 
states that the job market did not respond as well. Well, we 
all knew up here on Capitol Hill that if you just, you know, 
opened up, the businesses would come back. Look no further than 
right here in D.C. Muriel Bowser's policies basically wrecked 
the restaurant market here in D.C. Most people could not go to 
work in D.C. There was no traffic coming into D.C. And the 
second she alleviated COVID-19 policies businesses started 
opening up again. People started going back to work, et cetera.
    So, I don't think we needed about $2 trillion to recover 
jobs in the United States. I think what we really needed was 
just sound, you know, local government policy or state 
government policy to just open up economies. Because the states 
that did that that is what happened.
    I want to speak to inflation, specifically. Because this is 
where we are now. The trip down memory lane was cool. One thing 
I will say about the states and local governments is that when 
the American Rescue plan came through, I know myself and 
several of the members were looking for an Excel spreadsheet 
about what states and localities actually needed and what they 
perceived were going to be the shortfalls in their budget. 
There was a funding formula that was created, but there was no 
spreadsheet about, OK, New York needs this. Mayor Williams, 
your city needs X. Los Angeles needs Y. Miami, Florida needs Z. 
There was no spreadsheet and no allocation. There was no back 
and forth that actually rose to a number. It was a funding 
formula. And they just picked a number out of the air and said 
we are going to spend X amount of money to state and local 
governments. So, when state and local governments have money to 
spend, I am not quite sure what they are going to spend on. 
Some figured it out. Some did it. You have a glut of money 
sitting out there in the economy that gets spent in reckless 
means.
    And I am going to bring this back to the productivity 
point. People were not working to the degree that they need to 
work in an economy like ours. Which means product is not 
available for purchase to the degree of the amount of money 
that is out there to purchase. Which means prices go up. Mayor 
Williams, you said earlier that your constituents would still 
say that the American Rescue Plan is still a good thing in 
spite of the inflation that has been created in the United 
States. Do you think your constituents would actually chose 
paying $65 per fill up or the American Rescue Plan?
    Mr. Williams. Thank you for that question. I am not going 
to play that game. You know, I mean----
    Mr. Donalds. Well, I am going to----
    Mr. Williams [continuing]. this is----
    Mr. Donalds [continuing]. reclaim----
    Mr. Williams. This is----
    Mr. Donalds [continuing]. reclaim my time right there.
    Mr. Williams. Yes, reclaim your time.
    Mr. Donalds. They are having to--they are going to have to 
fill up. It is $65 bucks, man. Look, I got a sedan, it----
    Mr. Williams. I know how much it is.
    Mr. Donalds. It was $57.
    Mr. Williams. I, sir, I know how much it is. I just got a 
text from my daughter yesterday.
    Mr. Donalds. I know how much it is too.
    Mr. Williams. She spent $65----
    Mr. Donalds. Which one would----
    Mr. Williams. She spent $75----
    Mr. Donalds [continuing]. your daughter prefer?
    Mr. Williams [continuing]. to fill her tank up. You know, 
but----
    Mr. Donalds. And what is better----
    Mr. Williams. But, you know, the American Rescue Plan saved 
human lives. So, I am not going to equate the price of gas----
    Mr. Donalds. I am going to reclaim my time.
    Mr. Williams [continuing]. over a human life.
    Mr. Donalds. Let's talk about human lives. Let's talk about 
this. The COVID-19 vaccinations were basically ready for 
distribution around January 2021. That is when they were ready 
for deployment. They were deployed out in a systematic fashion. 
If you look at the deployment rate per day of COVID-19 
vaccines, there was no change in the rate per day between the 
Trump Administration and the Biden Administration. There was no 
change.
    As a matter of fact, the Biden Administration was slow in 
vaccine deployment. They had to actually drop the FEMA sites 
that were doing because it was most inefficient way. They 
actually had to follow the Ron DeSantis model, which was 
actually giving it to pharmacies so they can deploy the 
vaccines in a much more efficient manner. Thanks, Mr. Chairman. 
This was fun. I yield back.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman's time has expired. I now 
recognize the gentleman from New Jersey, Mr. Sires, for five 
minutes.
    Mr. Sires. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, for holding this 
hearing today. You know, I can agree with my colleague, Stacey 
Plaskett when people refer to Donald Trump as an economist and 
take his advice to run the economy, they should all return to 
New Jersey and how he ran the Trump casinos to the ground. And 
how he left people holding the bag because he refused to pay 
for the work. And his attitude was, well, take me to court. 
This is how he made his money, abusing from the little guy.
    But, Dr. Coronado, I am here to talk a little bit about the 
recovery and from the pandemic that supposedly or did occur 
more swiftly than many forecasted. Is there an explanation why 
we missed the forecast, Dr. Coronado?
    Dr. Coronado. Yes, I mean, we had never provided as much 
support in as direct a fashion as we have. There is always some 
uncertainty around what we call the fiscal multiplier, how much 
bang for your buck did you get. And I think one of the things 
we are learning is that providing direct support to households 
gives you a big bang for your buck.
    Mr. Sires. Yes, I always get a kick because there is always 
looking backward and attacking some of the things that 
basically maybe not have gone as swiftly, as smoothly as could 
have gone. And it makes for a great political point. But can 
you also tell me the role of the Rescue Plan in spurring the 
recovery?
    Dr. Coronado. Yes,----
    Mr. Sires. If it wasn't for that, what would have happened?
    Dr. Coronado. Yes, absolutely. So, when you give people the 
money that they need to pay their rent, to buy their food, to 
pay for all the needs and even some things that are not 
necessities, that money is revenue to some business. And then 
that business then hires employees. And again, we had 
tremendous profitability and productivity over the past year 
and so, you know, from a macroeconomic standpoint, these--just 
the money going into the economy is going to create that kind 
of activity, profits, jobs, incomes.
    It is a positive feedback loop. That is, in fact, the 
definition of a recession versus an expansion is taking the 
economy out of a negative feedback loop where job losses and 
uncertainty begets more job losses and uncertainty and putting 
it into a positive feedback loop. Where spending creates jobs, 
creates more spending, creates more jobs. And that is, in fact, 
what the American Rescue Plan, that is the dynamic it helped 
foster.
    Mr. Sires. Thank you. Mayor Williams, as a former mayor, I 
understand how impactful state and federal funding are to 
starting and maintaining a city's program and services. I can 
tell you that in my district many of the mayors were starting 
to panic during the pandemic because they didn't know if help 
was coming or not. They didn't realize they weren't getting the 
amount of money coming in as they thought they were getting. 
Can you talk a little bit about how your town prioritized the 
funding it received from the American Rescue Plan?
    Mr. Williams. Thank you, Representative. Certainly, how we 
prioritized the use of the funding in our city was certainly 
first and foremost to our first responders, police and fire and 
public services or public works. Those folks who had to be in 
work. They could not work from home. So, certainly, that was 
important to us. But also, I spoke earlier about the rental 
assistance, mortgage assistance, utility assistance. But also, 
assisting families with food insecurities.
    We had families because schools were shut down, there were 
families whose kids were going to school and we know this for a 
fact, that when kids are going to school, usually that meal 
that they get at school is the only meal that they have. So, we 
wanted to make sure that we took care of that. But not just 
have one meal a day, three meals a day throughout the week. And 
we did that and still are doing that to make sure that our 
families are secure as it relates to food and other necessities 
such as Wi-Fi, and all of those types of things that keeps a 
community's quality of life flowing.
    But also, people deserve that. This is about, you know, our 
piece of the promise for all of American citizens. You know, 
so, we have got to make sure that we keep that focus first and 
foremost. Thank you.
    Mr. Sires. Thank you. You know, one of the things that I am 
most proud of in my community is how they handled this, 
especially the lunch programs for kids. If it wasn't for the 
lunch programs that we had, a lot of kids would have gone 
hungry. I see that my time is up. Thank you, Chairman.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman's time has expired. I now 
recognize the gentleman from Wisconsin, Mr. Grothman, for five 
minutes.
    Mr. Grothman. Thank you. First of all, a general comment 
because some of these things just really irritate me. It 
bothers me that we have people before me today who find it so 
easy to print so much money. Because when you do that and 
create inflation, you are just destroying the people on fixed 
incomes on pensions, which eventually will really rip into 
people who have savings for their whole life. They rely on that 
savings. They think it is going to be there when they retire. 
All of a sudden the value of the dollar falls. And for you it 
is just like no big deal. It is my money. It is my pension. I 
can do with it whatever I want because I am part of the 
government. And you have hurt people so much through this 
inflation.
    I think for the first time since I have been in politics 
there is genuine fear back home as you have driven not just the 
cost of gas, but the cost of housing through the roof. I think 
the amount of inflation, the official numbers are way 
understated. And you really may have taken big steps toward 
destroying the American Dream.
    I think as far as talking about people who couldn't work 
during the pandemic, when I go home at night, I go by three 
cheese plants. Big cheese plants. And I saw those people 
because they were considered required working or necessary 
working. They were--those plants were the parking lots were 
filled even if I went home at midnight. There were people 
working three shifts around the clock and they didn't have a 
problem doing it. And to this day, I believe a lot of the 
government people who ordered people at home, ordered people at 
home unnecessarily. Because all those working people who 
provide our food, they were out there working all the time. And 
people shouldn't have ordered all these other people to stay at 
home.
    Now, I will comment a little. Around the time that this 
debacle, and I will mention, I should say debacles, because not 
only this bill that we are looking at today, but that 
infrastructure bill was another complete debacle, another over 
a trillion dollars just put into the economy like it wasn't 
going to hurt anything. But we will give Mr. Moore a question 
here. One of the things I noticed over time and it is maybe one 
of the reasons why I am afraid we are going to have a poor 
America is the over time lowering labor rate participation of 
men. I don't care if we take men across the board, men aged 25 
to 55. There has over a period of years, been a dramatic 
decrease in the labor participation rate there. I am not sure 
how much is kind of this anti-man thing that is out there. I 
don't know much is across the board unemployment benefits. But 
could you comment on the reduction in the percentage of men 
working both over the last 10 years and over the last 30 years?
    Mr. Moore. Look, economics really isn't very complicated, 
Mr. Grothman. If you pay people not to work they won't work. 
And if you increase the rewards to working, you will get more 
work. It is not complicated. This is just a law of economics. 
And that is why I mentioned earlier in my testimony. I will go 
back to that. We should have cut the payroll tax. We shouldn't 
have expanded all these programs. I mean, this idea that all we 
have to do is give people money. I mean, one of the previous 
witnesses saying, oh, we gave people money for healthcare. We 
gave money for their food. We gave money for people money for 
the rent. We gave, I mean, wouldn't it be a wonderful world if 
we could solve all our economic problems by just giving people 
money?
    Mr. Grothman. I think it----
    Mr. Moore. I mean, it would be a wonderful thing.
    Mr. Grothman. Yes.
    Mr. Moore. I wish that worked.
    Mr. Grothman. I think you are hitting on something that 
should be obvious. Larry Summers,----
    Mr. Moore. Yes.
    Mr. Grothman [continuing]. one of Obama's top advisors said 
at the time, I think this is a least responsible economic 
policy in 40 years. I think more recently Steve Rattner, a 
Democrat, the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan passed in the 
early days of the Biden Administration will go down in history 
as----
    Mr. Moore. Mm-hmm.
    Mr. Grothman [continuing]. as an extraordinary policy 
mistake. And I think that is what happens when we have people 
who think that the reason America is a great, vibrant economy 
and the envy of the rest of the world probably almost since we 
were founded, is because we believe in freedom, OK? And we 
believe in people making their own wealth and finding a job and 
earning their own money. And there are other people who think 
wealth comes from the government either printing money or 
taxing money or going deeper into debt.
    And obviously, those people right now are running the show. 
Everything any lobbyist could think of or any cool idea that 
one of the squad could think of wound up in these bills and now 
here we sit. I think the only way, I will ask you, the only 
reasonable way to get rid of the inflation look how we got rid 
of inflation in the 1980's, it wasn't good, although we 
eventually did get rid of it. And it is something we have got 
to get rid of to get America back on the straight and narrow. 
And I don't know whether we have elected officials anymore who 
have the integrity to say no to the people back home or whether 
they think they run for reelection putting on their campaign 
literature look at all the money I took from the public and 
spread out for everybody under the sun.
    Like I said, I think of all those hardworking people in my 
district who were working third shift through this thing 
without complaining a bit. And nevertheless, we had politicians 
ordering people to stay at home. And after they ordered them to 
stay at home, they pretended like it was something beyond their 
control. It is just unbelievable.
    Mr. Moore. Well, Mr. Grothman, at the peak of the--when we 
were paying people $600 a week unemployment benefits, plus 
rental assistance, plus expanded food stamps, plus Medicaid, 
plus the $300 child per credit, Casey Mulligan of the 
University of Chicago and I did a study that found that you 
could--you had families in many states with two parents and two 
kids that could make $80 to $100,000 in government benefits and 
not work a single hour. And the reason I mention that, you know 
who that is unfair to? The people that you are talking about. 
The people working double shifts and sometimes triple shifts, 
working 50 hours a week, and they are making less money than 
people on--look, I am for a safety net.
    Mr. Grothman. Nobody gives a damn about the working man 
nowadays.
    Mr. Moore. Yes.
    Mr. Grothman. Nobody cares about the working man.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman's time has expired.
    Mr. Grothman. Oh, by the way. Just other comment, part of 
that free spending happened a little bit under our buddy Trump 
too, you got to admit.
    Mr. Moore. It did, yes. The CARES Act.
    Mr. Grothman. OK.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman's time has expired. I now 
recognize the gentlewoman from Washington, Ms. Jayapal, for 
five minutes.
    Ms. Jayapal. Well, thank you, Mr. Chairman. That was very 
instructive that last five minutes. Let me just take on several 
points. The other side puts money out too. Let's be really 
clear. That is the $2 trillion tax cut that Donald Trump passed 
with Republican votes. And that is a tax cut that went to the 
top 10 percent of the country. And that is if you are generous 
it went to the top 10 percent. So, don't tell me that we 
don't--that you don't like to give out free money because you 
are giving it out all the time.
    Let's look at, if you want to look at a debacle. How about 
the debacle of what is happening right now with oil and gas 
companies profiteering and the profits of these corporations 
going up massively even as working people across this country 
cannot afford their gas at the pump. This is profiteering and 
it is not just by those oil companies. Look at the food 
companies. Look at the agriculture companies. You are seeing 
people profiteering right now and those are the people that our 
colleagues on the other side of the aisle want to help.
    The difference here is that Democrats want to help regular, 
working people, folks who are struggling across the country 
just to make ends meet. That is what Democrats are about. And 
that is why when you look at the American Rescue Plan, it was 
an unmitigated success and it was an unmitigated success for 
the right group of people. For the 90 percent of Americans who 
desperately need the help. Not for the top 10 percent that the 
Republicans are always trying to deliver freebees for.
    No, the reality is our economy was devastated by the 
pandemic. Unemployment was at its lowest levels in over half a 
century. But President Biden and Democrats acted boldly to 
deliver a relief package that met the scale of the crisis. And 
thanks to the American Rescue Plan, the U.S. economy has 
rebounded faster than anyone predicted. It helped people stay 
in their homes. We have cut hunger by 25 percent. We have cut 
child poverty in half. We have helped wages to rise. 
Unemployment is down to 3.6 percent, a level that the 
Congressional Budget Office did not predict we would reach for 
the entire decade. A level, by the way, that is the lowest 
level of unemployment in over half a century.
    So, you want to talk about a debacle, talk about the 
economy under Donald Trump that rewarded only the richest 
people and the Republican tax cut of several years ago. You 
want to talk about success for working people, talk about the 
American Rescue Plan.
    Now, let me get back to my questions. After just 2 \1/2\ 
years, we have returned the U.S. labor market back to its pre-
pandemic strength. And our recovery has been much more 
equitable in stark contrast to the response to the Great 
Recession. Dr. Coronado, can you elaborate on why it was so 
important to go big and provide meaningful relief quickly and 
how this response contrasts to the Great Recession?
    Dr. Coronado. Yes. So, there is a lot of research that 
shows when people are unemployed for an extended period of time 
or out of the labor force for an extended period of time, it 
leaves a permanent imprint on their earnings capacity. So, 
their wages. The wages that they return to the labor force at 
are lower and the growth is slower. And they are more prone to 
spells of unemployment down the road. There is lots of evidence 
of this.
    Which is why speed is important. It is important not just 
to restore the economy but to bring people back in. There has 
been a lot of talk of people being on the sidelines. That has 
been turning around with great force. People were on the 
sidelines for a lot of reasons because of childcare problems, 
because of health concerns, even after the lockdowns were 
lifted. So, it was a complex and difficult situation for many 
families. That is now beginning to heal. And we are seeing the 
labor force participation of prime age people. We are on track 
to exceed the pre-pandemic levels in the next six months. So, 
there is no problem with people's willingness to work. They 
want to.
    And now, as you noted, the structure of the benefits is 
going to disproportionately to lower wage workers who have had 
decades and decades of underperformance. We have seen widening 
income inequality since the 1980's. And for the first time 
since then, we are seeing actually wage gains much stronger, 
twice the pace, for the lowest quintile of workers as it is for 
the top quintile of workers.
    Ms. Jayapal. Let's talk about----
    Dr. Coronado. And just----
    Ms. Jayapal [continuing]. that.
    Dr. Coronado. I just want to clarify one other point of red 
versus blue states since I live in a red state. The cities are 
blue and we definitely took advantage of all the American 
Rescue Plan programs. Our mayor heartily engaged in providing 
assistance to renters to keep them and we are a service sector 
city. We got hit. I am in Austin. We got hit really hard and we 
bounced back really fast in large part because a lot of these 
programs kept people going.
    Ms. Jayapal. Well, I am going to ask you a quick question 
because my last colleague went over time. So, I know----
    Chairman Yarmuth. Your time is up.
    Ms. Jayapal [continuing]. my time's expired. But really 
quickly, Mr. Chairman.
    Chairman Yarmuth. Be quick.
    Ms. Jayapal. The last part of the U.S. response was 
necessary because of holes in our existing supports. What could 
we do differently so that the help that people need during a 
crisis are in place automatically, Dr. Coronado?
    Dr. Coronado. Yes. So, again, I think one of the things 
that these programs did expose were some of the creakiness of 
the infrastructure in terms of getting money to people. I think 
we actually did incredibly well. But the IRS is stretched to 
breaking point in terms of its ability. We could do--the 
unemployment insurance systems at the state level experienced a 
lot of technical difficulties in administering these programs.
    So, I think that there is a lot that can be done in terms 
of modernizing the digital infrastructure both at the IRS and 
at the unemployment insurance system to bring it up to date and 
make sure that we can get money to people quickly. Identify who 
is eligible, get the money quickly. That would certainly 
facilitate the efficiency of these programs.
    Ms. Jayapal. Thank you.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentlewoman's time has expired.
    Ms. Jayapal. Mr. Chairman, I yield back.
    Chairman Yarmuth. I now recognize the gentleman from 
Georgia, Mr. Carter, for five minutes.
    Mr. Carter. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And thank all of you 
for being here today. I appreciate your attendance here. 
Particularly you, Mayor Williams, a fellow Georgian. Thank you. 
And just full disclosure, I was a mayor in another life as 
well. So, I appreciate your service and appreciate you being 
here from the great County of Fulton and the great city of 
Union City. I am very familiar with it.
    Mr. Mayor, I wanted to ask you. You have had great praise 
for the American Rescue fund and for the funds that it brought 
to our state. And I say our state because it is your state, my 
state, the state of Georgia. But I haven't heard you say a 
whole lot about the fact that the state of Georgia under our 
Governor Brian Kemp that we were one of the first to reopen. 
And that we were one of the ones who really never closed down 
completely. And I just want to ask you, with all due respect, 
how do you differentiate between the impact of the state 
reopening, allowing people to get back to work and to school 
and the impact of the American Rescue Plan? I mean, how do you 
differentiate between those two?
    Mr. Williams. Well, thank you. And, certainly, no, I had 
not spoken about Georgia and certainly our great Governor Brian 
Kemp. And Georgia is a blue state now for those who don't know 
that.
    Mr. Carter. I beg your pardon?
    Mr. Williams. Well, the----
    Mr. Carter. I am talking Georgia in the southeast.
    Mr. Williams. Yes, yes. But anyway, you know, yes, we are 
talking about Georgia in its entirety. But I did want to 
certainly say that Georgia was one of the first states to stay 
open. But it was a challenge for most of the communities in 
Georgia who had struggles with people who were not essential 
workers. People who didn't have public transit access. There 
were a number of factors as to why a lot of the folks that were 
employed and needed to get to work, couldn't get to work. But 
also, a lot of the jobs were shut down because of the pandemic. 
Certainly, the state was still open, but a lot of people 
couldn't work.
    So, you know, there were a lot of variables in that, 
Congressman. But we have to be focused on how do we get people 
to work in an open environment? Many of us were afraid because 
we didn't have the necessary healthcare, the necessary testing 
that needed to be done to get people to work. But also, our 
schools were shut down. That was a big fight, as you know, in 
Georgia about schools being open, being closed. So, that was a 
big challenge.
    Mr. Carter. Well, Mr. Mayor, again, and I don't mean to be 
confrontational here. But I am afraid that we are--we certainly 
disagree with red and blue. But nevertheless, I am afraid we 
disagree with which one really, I mean, which one had the most 
impact and the most benefit here? I mean, opening early didn't 
cause the inflation that we are experiencing right now. It 
didn't cause the high need for employees that we are 
experiencing right now.
    I know in your city alone, I believe I have got the figures 
here that according to Indeed.com, a job search engine, there 
are 6,730 open restaurant jobs within 25 miles of Union City, 
Georgia. And, you know, all this money that was pumped into the 
economy and particularly by the American Rescue Plan, which in 
my opinion, was not necessary.
    Now, there were programs that were necessary. Programs that 
I voted for. The CARES Act, PPP programs, EIDL, all of those 
were important. And they helped these people out as you 
indicate. But the American Rescue Plan has resulted in the high 
inflation and the need for employees that we have right now. We 
have simply got too many dollars chasing after too fewer 
products right now. But opening up the economy that is what 
helped us in the state of Georgia recover from this.
    Mr. Williams. All due respect, you mentioned the CARES Act. 
The CARES Act did not help cities like my city. There were only 
36, 37 big cities that received CARES Act funds, you know. The 
CARES Act funding went to the county, Fulton County.
    Mr. Carter. OK. Well,----
    Mr. Williams. Now, certainly that was a challenge we had in 
having discussions with the county.
    Mr. Carter. But Fulton County had the ability to have it 
designated to you as well in the city.
    Mr. Williams. Well, let me tell you that was a huge----
    Mr. Carter. I understand.
    Mr. Williams. OK. Well, then----
    Mr. Carter. I am familiar with Fulton County
    Mr. Williams [continuing]. OK.
    Mr. Carter. Enough said. But when we talk about the 
American Rescue Plan, all I have heard you say is that you were 
able to finish a greenway trail. I mean, what that is----
    Mr. Williams. Not finish. Not finish.
    Mr. Carter. Not finish.
    Mr. Williams. No, I didn't say finish.
    Mr. Carter. It is still not finished?
    Mr. Williams. Yes, I didn't say finish a greenway trail. It 
has allowed us to be able to move forward with the creation and 
implementation of a greenway trail. It is helping us to be able 
to create recreational outlets for our community. We are not 
finished with it.
    Mr. Carter. Well, certainly that is important. I get it.
    Mr. Williams. Yes.
    Mr. Carter. I was a mayor too.
    Mr. Williams. Yes.
    Mr. Carter. And I understand that recreational trails are 
important to the life of the community. But I would submit that 
it is not important enough to where the federal government 
needs to be sending dollars down there that is going to result 
in inflation. And what we see now in the need of employees and 
businesses struggling like they are struggling in my district 
in the First congressional District along the coast of Georgia.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman's time has expired.
    Mr. Carter. Mr. Chairman, thank you, and I yield back.
    Chairman Yarmuth. I now recognize the gentleman from 
Virginia, Mr. Cline, for five minutes.
    Mr. Cline. Well, thank you, Mr. Chairman. I want to thank 
you for holding this hearing on the so-called American Rescue 
Plan. It is something we have been asking to do for quite a 
while. The hearing has provided us with the opportunity to 
highlight some of the most disastrous impacts of the plan on 
the American economy and on American families, as well as the 
devastating inflation that has resulted. In fact, over the last 
15 months, the economic outlook has also deteriorated in many 
aspects of society. The federal deficit in 2021 was $2.78 
trillion, the second highest deficit in American history. And 
$517 billion more than CBO projected. So far this year, the 
Federal Reserve has already increased interest rates twice by 
1/4 of a point in March and 1/2 point in May. I expect it to 
increase rates again later this week.
    Prior to ARPA, CBO projected no rate increases until 2024. 
The S&P 500 is down 16 percent from its peak. Productivity fell 
at 7.3 percent annual pace last quarter. The largest decrease 
in 75 years. Labor force participation remains below what it 
was prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Gas prices are above $5 a 
gallon, up 109 percent since Biden became President. Real wages 
have declined by 4.2 percent since Biden became President. And 
the federal debt has increased by almost $3 trillion and is on 
track to increase by another $16 trillion under the President's 
budget proposal, reaching the highest level in American history 
as a percentage of the economy.
    And what is even more egregious is much of the funding from 
this American Rescue Plan was lost due to fraud, unemployment 
insurance fraud. The government has confirmed at least $163 
billion, which with third-party estimates as high as $400 
billion. All of this because architects of the American Rescue 
Plan, congressional Democrats and the Administration refused to 
include guardrails such as identity verification, which would 
protect the funding.
    It is clear that much of the taxpayer funded spending from 
the Rescue Plan was spent on policies that actually reduced 
labor force participation and spent on things completely 
unrelated to combatting COVID-19.
    I want to ask Mr. Moore, as I said, interest rates are 
rising. You say GDP will grow at less than a point in the 
second quarter. In your opinion, what does the next six months 
look like for the American consumer?
    Mr. Moore. Look, I think this is a really dangerous time 
for the U.S. economy. We are at, you know, I am kind of in 
agreement with one of the--Jamie Dimon who said last week that 
it just feels like we are on the beach and tsunami is coming. 
And hey, look, I hope I am wrong. The last thing--I have lived 
through six recessions during my lifetime, deep recessions. And 
they were extraordinarily painful and they caused incredible 
pain and suffering. So, I pray. I pray. I pray that we can 
skate around this. But, Mr. Cline, what has bothered me, 
frankly, about this hearing is the ``it is not our fault'' is 
not an economic strategy, right. To just say it is not our 
fault.
    You know, I have been in economics for 35 years. I never 
even heard the term supply chain problems until Joe Biden came 
into office. Where did this idea of supply chain problems come? 
We had under Reagan, we had, when we had the massive recovery, 
we had an 18-month period where the economy grew by 12 percent. 
There were no supply chain problems. Inflation rate fell. It 
didn't grow. Economic growth is associated with lower 
inflation. When you produce more goods and services, the 
inflation rate goes down. It doesn't go up. If the economy 
produces more apples, what happens to the price of apples?
    So, I think what worries me right now, sir, is what is the 
solution? When Joe Biden says we should pass the Build Back 
Better bill and add another $2 or $3 trillion to the debt, it 
scares the hell out of me. You know, if that is the solution, 
more and more spending, more price controls. We had price 
controls in the 1970's, Mr. Cline, and it was a disaster. That 
is what led to gas lines and kind of the collapse of the 
economy.
    So, very worried about things. I think what we ought to do 
is call for an immediate 10 or 15 percent across the board cut 
in every government program. They have had 30 percent 
increases. Let's get government spending down quickly to help 
solve this inflation problem. Make the tax cuts permanent. And 
let's suspend all this, you know, green energy stuff for a 
while. And produce what produces 70 percent of our energy, 
which is oil, gas, coal, nuclear power.
    Mr. Cline. Thank you. I want to note that our colleague, 
Ms. Jayapal, who is not on right now, was talking about the 
pre-pandemic economy, and how it was going. And it was going 
quite well due to the tax cuts that were passed by the Trump 
Administration by the Republican Congress prior to the 
pandemic. So, I would hope that we would adopt some of the 
policies that you are recommending and we can save this economy 
from sliding into a recession. I yield back.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman yields back. I now yield 
five minutes to the gentleman from Iowa, Mr. Feenstra.
    Mr. Feenstra. Thank you. Thank you, Chairman Yarmuth. And 
thank you, Ranking Member Smith. It is a pleasure to talk about 
this topic today. I appreciate the testimoneys of each one of 
you concerning the American Rescue Plan and whether or not it 
was successful and talk about the implications of it.
    My past, I taught business and economics at a university. 
And I quickly pulled out my public finance book, right? Because 
I wanted to clarify economics and, Mr. Moore, you noted that 
economics is really not complicated. It is not complicated. It 
is really about consumer satisfaction and how you get there. 
And the book, you know, the first five sentences of the book it 
talks about injecting cash into a system inherently creates 
inflation. It automatically does, right?
    So, that is what happened. That is factual, right? We do 
have inflation, runaway inflation, which is factual. Whether 
Mrs. Yellen says that, Mr. Powell says that. I mean, this is 
fact. So, now when you look at the economics piece of it, it 
also deals with utility. So, as economists when we look at 
utility, that means consumer satisfaction.
    So, what happened with the American Rescue Plan, we 
injected all this money. Did we create consumer satisfaction? 
Well, let's think about that. When gas is up 48 percent, eggs 
are up 33 percent, utilities up 30 percent, milk up 16, meat up 
12, oh, and by the way, we are sitting here less than 24 hours 
after the S&P 500 closed in a bear market dropping 20 percent 
in the last six months, threatening retirements of millions of 
seniors who have left the labor market. Do you think they are 
satisfied? No.
    I mean, this is why there is so much anger in America right 
now. People are furious because they have to make a decision. 
They have to make this decision. Rational person, a rational 
person sitting around the table with their family has to make 
this decision, do I work more? Economics. Do I have to get more 
money? Or do I have cut going to the grocery store? Do I got to 
cut the pop? Or do I have to cut the meal for my kids?
    This is real. This is what Americans are facing. So, you 
can talk about the American Rescue Plan how glorious it. And 
yet, you have mom and dad sitting at the kitchen table trying 
to understand that they have to cut. Or does somebody have to 
get a second or third job? And the same thing with businesses. 
The businesses have seen dramatic inputs going up going all 
right, now what do we do? And this is scary stuff.
    You know, the chief economists of the World Trade 
Organization estimates that between 2/3 or 3/4 of the supply 
shortages are a result of excess demand, money put in the 
system, resulting from government spending. So, we look at all 
this stuff, and this is, again, chief economists of the World 
Trade Organization saying this. This isn't Randy Feenstra. This 
is an expert.
    It is caused by all this money that is going into the 
system. More importantly, and it was just noted by 
Representative Cline, that it would be something if we were all 
collaboratively sitting in this room today figuring out a plan 
to mitigate inflation. But, no, no, no, no, we are doing that. 
What we are doing is we are trying to revive Build Back Better. 
We are asking the President to forgive student loans. And we 
are also asking for more COVID dollars. Don't we understand the 
train wreck that is already happening? And it was just noted 
that is their storm clouds on the horizon? No. it is a matter 
of a hurricane and we are not sure if it is going to be a 
hurricane of a strength of 2, 3, 4, or 5. And it is scary 
because I think it could be a 5. This is how catastrophic this 
is going to be.
    Because you know how you--how you resolve the problems, and 
the Feds get it. They are going up a .75 percent or a .75 basis 
points this week, maybe even more. Because they understand the 
only way you fight inflation is increasing your interest rates. 
And when you increase your interest rates, right? Think about 
what happens. That slows down the economy. You create a 
recession and all of a sudden a year from now we are going to 
talk about extended high unemployment because work forces are 
going--businesses are going to have to lay off people because 
less people are buying product. Again, it is not necessarily 
me. It is economics. It is written about over and over and over 
again.
    I am scared. The country is scared. And yet, we are talking 
about spending more. Thank you. I yield back.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman's time has expired. I now 
yield five minutes to the gentleman from Ohio, Mr. Carey. And 
give him time to sit down.
    Mr. Carey. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, Ranker. So, in June 
2021, the EPA announced that $50 million from the American 
Rescue Plan would go to fund environmental justice initiatives. 
This money from a law that was supposedly meant for COVID 
relief, went to environmental climate-related programs across 
the country. For example, some of the money went to the city of 
Milwaukee for ``outreach and education through a healthy people 
homes and neighborhood campaign.'' Last month, you guys, the 
Center of Budget and Policy Priorities, put out a report that 
called for flexible recovery funds because it offers states a 
tool to advance environmental justice. Congressional Democrats 
and the Biden Administration's federal guidance for state and 
local dollars use was purposely vague so they could be used to 
advance their green new deal.
    In addition, $30 billion, with a B, was allotted through 
the American Rescue Plan for mass transit system improvements 
to reduce emissions. Not sure how that falls in line with 
COVID. So, it is obviously that the American Rescue Plan looked 
to fund the Administration's new green deal, doling out 
billions of dollars, taxpayer dollars, with little guidance on 
how those dollars should be used. So, my question to you, Mr. 
Moore, how do you think this money allotted for climate change 
has contributed to the runaway inflation that we are now 
seeing?
    Mr. Moore. Well, you know, there is no question that 
climate change funding was a huge part, especially of the $1.1 
trillion, well, I call it the green new deal bill, but they 
call it infrastructure bill. Look, when you raise energy 
prices, which is what we have been doing as we try--I mean, 
look, Biden's been very clear on this. He wants to go to zero 
on oil and gas development in the United States by 2030. So, 
the high--when you think about it, I mean, the high oil and gas 
prices is something the Biden Administration wants. They don't 
want people to use oil and gas. So, a good way to do that is to 
raise the price of it.
    But my point is, when energy prices go up, the gas price--I 
will tell you, I have a friend who, you know, for example, just 
give you one story. My friend owns restaurants. The kind of 
middle income like Denny's and Red Lobsters and so on. And he 
said, Steve, I can tell you what my sales the next week in my 
store will be based on what the gas price is today. In other 
words, when--I think a lot of people don't realize that 
Americans, 70 percent of Americans are living paycheck to 
paycheck. And if the gas price goes up, I am just using this 
one example, he said, you know, they won't have the money to go 
to Red Lobster. They have to take the family to McDonalds or 
something like this.
    So, this is why all this talk about inequality, inflation 
is the ultimate regressive tax that hurts the people at the 
bottom. That is why it is so inexcusable that we are allowing 
this to continue to go on and pretending that somehow we are 
helping the lowest income people. When, in fact, we are doing 
great damage to their living standards. And incidentally, I 
will make this prediction, and Mr. Chairman, if I am wrong, I 
will eat my words. But in six months, we are going to see a 
huge increase in the poverty rate in this country, huge. 
Because people's incomes can't keep pace with a 9 percent 
inflation rate. They just can't.
    Mr. Carey. Thank you, Mr. Moore. I will tell you, I think 
we all know the term energy poverty. And I think what we are 
going to see as you mentioned----
    Mr. Moore. Absolutely.
    Mr. Carey [continuing]. in the next six months we could see 
that. Again, I think, what were some of the things, and we only 
have a minute unfortunately, but you know, we are going to see 
probably gas go up to $6 a gallon.
    Mr. Moore. I hope not.
    Mr. Carey. The cost of obviously, domestic oil and gas 
recovery it is going up as everything else is. What do you 
think the Rescue Plan should have been focused on with domestic 
energy?
    Mr. Moore. Drill, drill, drill, drill. Use everything we 
got, all of the above American strategy. I mean, I talked to 
Trump many times about this. It was basically, I used to say we 
can be energy independent with the right strategy. He said I 
want America to be energy dominant. We should be. We have more 
oil and gas and coal than any other country in the world. We 
have 300 years' worth of natural gas. We have 250 years' worth 
of oil. We have 600 years' worth of coal. We have the cleanest 
energy in the world. It makes no sense that we have shut down 
so much of our energy supply. I find it tragic.
    Mr. Carey. Thank you, Mr. Moore. Mr. Chairman, I yield 
back.
    Chairman Yarmuth. The gentleman yields back. I now yield 
myself 10 minutes. And thank you all for your patience. I am 
the last questioner so we will get out of here.
    Ms. Boebert mentioned this is Donald Trump's birthday and 
wished him happy birthday. I want to acknowledge that today is 
National Bourbon Day and coming from Kentucky, I think that is 
an important thing to get on the record. And I will be 
celebrating appropriately later in the day.
    Mr. Williams, Mayor Williams, thanks for being here. And 
you are more than the Mayor of Union City. You are representing 
the League of Cities across the country. How many of the mayors 
that you are familiar with think the American Rescue Plan was a 
bad deal?
    Mr. Williams. I know no mayors that think the American 
Rescue Plan was a bad deal.
    Chairman Yarmuth. And that is Republicans, Democrats,----
    Mr. Williams. It is Republicans----
    Chairman Yarmuth [continuing]. and nonparties.
    Mr. Williams [continuing]. and Democrats. We are a 
nonpartisan organization. So, I have no mayors that have 
reached out and said I think this is a bad deal because we 
worked in consort with a lot of your committee members and 
certainly with the Biden Administration to craft this 
legislation to make sure that cities did get direct funding.
    Chairman Yarmuth. And one of the complaints about the CARES 
Act was that there was not enough flexibility offered, that the 
guidelines were too strict. And therefore, when we were 
crafting----
    Mr. Williams. Exactly.
    Chairman Yarmuth [continuing]. this legislation, that is 
what we wanted to do was to give the cities and states and 
counties more flexibility in the use. And, obviously, that 
doesn't guarantee that everybody will use them for the best 
possible purpose. But the Ranking Member mentioned a list of 
things. The ones he mentioned, and I know he said there were 
more that he didn't mention, didn't amount to $2 billion, which 
means that is less than .1 percent of the total investments 
made under the American Rescue Plan.
    So, there were a lot of things that were done really well. 
In my state, and I have a letter which I ask unanimous consent 
to enter into the record. Without objection.
    [Letter submitted for the record follows:]
    
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    This is from the Governor of the Commonwealth of Kentucky 
talking about all the ways in which they have used, not all of 
them but some of the prominent ways and you mentioned of them, 
water systems, broadband. We made a considerable investment in 
schools, both remediation of schools so they are safer, but 
also, construction of schools. And the point I raise there is 
not all of the benefits of the American Rescue Plan have been 
realized. There are many that will be realized as time goes on 
because of these important investments.
    Mr. Williams. You are exactly right. And it was, you know, 
mentioned during my conversation with Member Carter, the 
greenway trail, for example. Those things take time. You know, 
certainly this is something that we are engaged in now and 
developing that resource through our community. But, you know, 
one of the great things that I do see have happened with this 
ARPA plan is that I am noticing and have noticed, not just in 
Georgia, in my city, but around the country that elected 
officials at all levels have begun to somewhat work together in 
consort when it comes to the needs of people.
    It just concerns me that we still have a lot of this back 
and forth with a lot of our federal members who chose not to 
support it. And that is fine. That is your right. But when you 
think about the needs of the people of this nation, it is 
imperative that every person that has been sent to Washington 
to serve their communities, their districts, that they do the 
right thing when it comes to saving lives.
    Chairman Yarmuth. I totally agree. You know, we know that 
funding helps states and localities. We have survived the 
pandemic and make investments that are evidence based and 
community supported. I ask unanimous consent to enter a letter 
from Results for America into the record, which makes that 
case. Without objection.
    [Letter submitted for the record follows:]
    
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    Now, I am going to--one question. It was this Fed report, 
the San Francisco Fed Report was referenced earlier. Didn't the 
Fed issue a report within the last six months that said they 
had estimated that the American Rescue Plan accounted for less 
than 1 percent of the total inflation, like .6 or .7 percent?
    Dr. Coronado. So, I would have to look and I am not 
familiar with that report. But there are numerous reports from, 
you know, there are 12 regional Federal Reserves.
    Chairman Yarmuth. Right.
    Dr. Coronado. Each has a research staff. All of them are 
doing research on these things. So, if it is of use, I could 
gather the various reports and provide you with those 
references.
    Chairman Yarmuth. OK. That would be appreciated. There is a 
recent one now that I would like to mention and enter into the 
record.
    This is from Moody's Analytics. This is decomposing 
consumer price inflation year over year change through May 22 
on seasonally adjusted CPI, a total of 8.5 percent. That number 
has been mentioned frequently. Russian invasion of Ukraine. 
Direct impact of higher commodity prices, 2.8 percent. Indirect 
impact of higher commodity prices, .7 percent. So, according to 
this, 3.5 percent, or almost half, actually, of the 8.5 they 
say is directly or indirectly attributed to the Russian 
invasion. Stressed supply chains, 1.5 percent. Labor shortages, 
.1 percent. Reopening effect .4 percent. Energy regulation, 
zero. American Rescue Plan, .1 percent. So, I am sure there are 
people who will come up with different numbers, but these 
numbers are pretty revealing as well.
    And I want to turn to inflation for a minute because we 
hear a lot about gas prices. Mr. Moore, do you know what gas 
prices, the price of a barrel of oil was in January before the 
Russian invasion when Russia actually aggregating troops 
nearby? Do you know what it was a barrel?
    Mr. Moore. Sorry, January 2021?
    Chairman Yarmuth. 2022.
    Mr. Moore. 1922, I mean. I don't know, $3. I don't know, 
$3, $3.50, I don't know.
    Chairman Yarmuth. No, not a gallon. Oil, a barrel of oil.
    Mr. Moore. Oh, the oil price.
    Chairman Yarmuth. On the market, yes.
    Mr. Moore. Well, I know that the month that Trump left 
office the oil price was about $60 to $65 a barrel. I don't 
know what it was in----
    Chairman Yarmuth. It was in the low 80's.
    Mr. Moore. Wait, are you talking about January 2021?
    Chairman Yarmuth. 2022.
    Mr. Moore. Oh, 1922, yes. OK.
    Chairman Yarmuth. Yes, just----
    Mr. Moore. In the low $80's.
    Chairman Yarmuth [continuing]. just weeks before the 
invasion,----
    Mr. Moore. Right.
    Chairman Yarmuth [continuing]. a barrel of oil was $80 to 
$85----
    Mr. Moore. Mm-hmm.
    Chairman Yarmuth [continuing]. a barrel. And it is now $120 
a barrel. It is a pretty compelling evidentiary case that the 
invasion dramatically raised the increase in oil prices. And 
everybody wants to say, well, we ought to have an all-in 
policy. You just said that. What are we going to do? Are we 
going to tell the oil companies to drill more? You think they 
will listen to us? You mentioned 11 million gallons a day. Does 
anybody else in the world produce as much as we do?
    Mr. Moore. Sorry, does--I couldn't hear you.
    Chairman Yarmuth. Does any other country in the world 
produce as much oil as we do?
    Mr. Moore. We are slightly now below--we were the number 
one producer when Trump left office. And we are now we have 
fallen below Saudi Arabia and Russia.
    Chairman Yarmuth. I don't think so. I think Saudi Arabia is 
8.5 million barrels a day.
    Mr. Moore. I think Saudi Arabia's higher than our----
    Chairman Yarmuth. Which is----
    Mr. Moore [continuing]. we are. But my point is when the 
price goes from $80 a barrel to $120 a barrel, we should be 
producing 15 or 20 million. I mean, we should----
    Chairman Yarmuth. And isn't it the case that the reason 
they are not producing more when they have 9 million acres of 
leases that they are not using right now in the United States 
that they make too much money at $120 a barrel. Why would they 
go out and explore for oil? By the way, which is not going to 
do anything today, tomorrow, or next month to alleviate the 
crisis because it takes a long time to find oil and build that 
capacity. And just like the Keystone Pipeline you mentioned, 
how long will it take for that to be completed?
    Mr. Moore. Well, we have said that for 10 years.
    Chairman Yarmuth. Right.
    Mr. Moore. I mean, we would have it completed if we hadn't 
continued----
    Chairman Yarmuth. Well----
    Mr. Moore [continuing]. to stop it. But, look, my point is 
that when the price of oil goes up, production goes up. I mean, 
these companies are incredibly sensitive to the price of----
    Chairman Yarmuth. Well, apparently it is not.
    Mr. Moore [continuing]. they make--every additional dollar 
is an additional dollar of profit for them.
    Dr. Coronado. Their investors are demanding that they don't 
respond with drilling and investing.
    Chairman Yarmuth. And they know that electric cars are 
coming, an increasing factor. And to make a long-term 
investment now in drilling for more oil is something that in 
their economic interests and shareholder interests are 
something they are not going to do.
    Mr. Moore. But, sir, the President says he wants to--he 
said he wanted to destroy the oil and gas industry.
    Chairman Yarmuth. He doesn't control the oil companies----
    Mr. Moore. He doesn't want oil and gas development.
    Chairman Yarmuth. He doesn't control the oil companies.
    Mr. Moore. What is that?
    Chairman Yarmuth. He doesn't control the oil companies. He 
doesn't control Shell.
    Mr. Moore. They just took----
    Chairman Yarmuth. He doesn't control Exxon Mobil.
    Mr. Moore. They just took hundreds of thousands of acres--
--
    Chairman Yarmuth. He doesn't control----
    Mr. Moore [continuing]. off limits. They just did two weeks 
ago in the middle of an----
    Chairman Yarmuth. There are 9 million acres already under 
lease that they have. What more property----
    Mr. Moore. When you talk----
    Chairman Yarmuth [continuing]. do they need?
    Mr. Moore. When you talk to the people in the oil industry, 
you cannot have a red-light, green-light, red-light, green-
light policy. You are talking about billions of dollars 
investment. You can't say, oh, you can drill, you can't drill, 
you can, you can't.
    Chairman Yarmuth. Nobody----
    Mr. Moore. There is so much uncertainty.
    Chairman Yarmuth [continuing]. nobody----
    Mr. Moore. They are not going to do that.
    Chairman Yarmuth. Nobody has said you can't drill--that 
they can't drill. One other question before I conclude and my 
time will be up. And just to try and set the record straight. 
You were talking about the corporate tax rate lowering it under 
the Republican tax plan, which----
    Mr. Moore. Right.
    Chairman Yarmuth [continuing]. you were part of it. And how 
corporate tax revenues increased. What was the rate that 
corporations were paying before we lowered the tax rate from 35 
to 21?
    Mr. Moore. Our statutory rate when you count the federal 
rate and the state and local, were at 40 percent.
    Chairman Yarmuth. What was the effective rate that 
corporations----
    Mr. Moore. So, what we did--the effective rate was much 
lower. Our plan, our plan----
    Chairman Yarmuth. It was much lower than 21 percent----
    Mr. Moore. This is----
    Chairman Yarmuth [continuing]. wasn't it?
    Mr. Moore. This is the essence of a bad policy, right? We 
had the highest tax rate in the world and we weren't raising 
much revenue from it. So, we cut the rate and we are actually 
getting more revenue from it. Isn't that a better----
    Chairman Yarmuth. But they weren't paying 21 percent on 
average to begin with, were they?
    Mr. Moore. They weren't.
    Chairman Yarmuth. Yes.
    Mr. Moore. A lot of companies were paying zero.
    Chairman Yarmuth. They weren't, exactly.
    Mr. Moore. The wind and solar industry have never paid a 
penny----
    Chairman Yarmuth. Exactly, so how can claim----
    Mr. Moore [continuing]. of----
    Chairman Yarmuth [continuing]. I don't understand how you 
can claim effectiveness on that basis. But that is probably an 
argument for another time.
    Anyway, my time is up and we are going to have a vote in a 
minute. And I--what is that? Oh, they have called votes. So, we 
have a vote. Anyway, once again, thanks to all the witnesses. 
We truly appreciate your responses, your testimony, and I am 
sure this argument and debate will not conclude. But we have 
had a vibrant and animated discussion and I appreciate that.
    With that, if there is no further business, the hearing is 
adjourned.
    [Whereupon, at 1:48 p.m., the Committee was adjourned.]
    
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