[House Hearing, 117 Congress]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]







                      WHAT'S THE FORECAST: A LOOK
                   AT THE FUTURE OF WEATHER RESEARCH

=======================================================================

                                     
                                     

                                HEARING

                               BEFORE THE

                      SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT

                                 OF THE

                      COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE,
                             AND TECHNOLOGY

                                 OF THE

                        HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

                    ONE HUNDRED SEVENTEENTH CONGRESS

                             SECOND SESSION

                               __________

                             JUNE 14, 2022

                               __________

                           Serial No. 117-58

                               __________

 Printed for the use of the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology

                                     
                                     
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              COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY

             HON. EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas, Chairwoman
ZOE LOFGREN, California              FRANK LUCAS, Oklahoma, 
SUZANNE BONAMICI, Oregon                 Ranking Member
AMI BERA, California                 MO BROOKS, Alabama
HALEY STEVENS, Michigan,             BILL POSEY, Florida
    Vice Chair                       RANDY WEBER, Texas
MIKIE SHERRILL, New Jersey           BRIAN BABIN, Texas
JAMAAL BOWMAN, New York              ANTHONY GONZALEZ, Ohio
MELANIE A. STANSBURY, New Mexico     MICHAEL WALTZ, Florida
BRAD SHERMAN, California             JAMES R. BAIRD, Indiana
ED PERLMUTTER, Colorado              DANIEL WEBSTER, Florida
JERRY McNERNEY, California           MIKE GARCIA, California
PAUL TONKO, New York                 STEPHANIE I. BICE, Oklahoma
BILL FOSTER, Illinois                YOUNG KIM, California
DONALD NORCROSS, New Jersey          RANDY FEENSTRA, Iowa
DON BEYER, Virginia                  JAKE LaTURNER, Kansas
CHARLIE CRIST, Florida               CARLOS A. GIMENEZ, Florida
SEAN CASTEN, Illinois                JAY OBERNOLTE, California
CONOR LAMB, Pennsylvania             PETER MEIJER, Michigan
DEBORAH ROSS, North Carolina         JAKE ELLZEY, TEXAS
GWEN MOORE, Wisconsin                MIKE CAREY, OHIO
DAN KILDEE, Michigan
SUSAN WILD, Pennsylvania
LIZZIE FLETCHER, Texas
                                 ------                                

                      Subcommittee on Environment

              HON. MIKIE SHERRILL, New Jersey, Chairwoman
SUZANNE BONAMICI, Oregon             STEPHANIE I. BICE, Oklahoma,
DAN KILDEE, Michigan                   Ranking Member
LIZZIE FLETCHER, Texas               ANTHONY GONZALEZ, Ohio
CHARLIE CRIST, Florida               RANDY FEENSTRA, Iowa
SEAN CASTEN, Illinois                CARLOS A. GIMENEZ, Florida  

















                         C  O  N  T  E  N  T  S

                             June 14, 2022

                                                                   Page

Hearing Charter..................................................     2

                           Opening Statements

Statement by Representative Mikie Sherrill, Chairwoman, 
  Subcommittee on Environment, Committee on Science, Space, and 
  Technology, U.S. House of Representatives......................     7
    Written Statement............................................     8

Statement by Representative Stephanie I. Bice, Ranking Member, 
  Subcommittee on Environment, Committee on Science, Space, and 
  Technology, U.S. House of Representatives......................     9
    Written Statement............................................    10

Statement by Representative Frank Lucas, Ranking Member, 
  Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of 
  Representatives................................................    11
    Written Statement............................................    12

Written statement by Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson, 
  Chairwoman, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. 
  House of Representatives.......................................    14

                               Witnesses:

Dr. Scott Glenn, Board of Governors Professor Center for Ocean 
  Observing Leadership of the Department of Marine and Coastal 
  Sciences, Rutgers University
    Oral Statement...............................................    15
    Written Statement............................................    17

Dr. Bradley Colman, President-Elect of the American 
  Meteorological Society; Director of Weather-Strategy, Bayer & 
  The Climate Corporation
    Oral Statement...............................................    24
    Written Statement............................................    26

Dr. Fred Carr, Professor Emeritus, School of Meteorology, 
  University of Oklahoma
    Oral Statement...............................................    33
    Written Statement............................................    35

Dr. Kevin R. Petty, VP, Weather and Earth Intelligence, Spire 
  Global, Inc.
    Oral Statement...............................................    47
    Written Statement............................................    49

Discussion.......................................................    55

              Appendix: Additional Material for the Record

Letter submitted by Representative Mikie Sherrill, Chairwoman, 
  Subcommittee on Environment, Committee on Science, Space, and 
  Technology, U.S. House of Representatives
    Michael E. Bryson, Senior Vice President--Operations, PJM....    66

 
                      WHAT'S THE FORECAST: A LOOK 
                   AT THE FUTURE OF WEATHER RESEARCH 

                              ----------                              


                         TUESDAY, JUNE 14, 2022

                  House of Representatives,
                       Subcommittee on Environment,
               Committee on Science, Space, and Technology,
                                                   Washington, D.C.

    The Subcommittee met, pursuant to notice, at 10 a.m., in 
room 3218 of the Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Mikie 
Sherrill [Chairwoman of the Subcommittee] presiding.

[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]

    Chairwoman Sherrill [continuing]. About the conduct of this 
hearing. First, Members and staff who are attending in person 
may choose to be masked, but it is not a requirement. However, 
any individual with symptoms, a positive test, or exposure to 
someone with COVID-19 should wear a mask while present.
    Members who are attending virtually should keep their video 
feed on as long as they are present in the hearing. Members are 
responsible for their own microphones. Please also keep your 
microphones muted unless you are speaking.
    Finally, if Members have documents they wish to submit for 
the record, please email them to the Committee Clerk, whose 
email address was circulated prior to the hearing.
    Good morning. Welcome to today's hearing on the future of 
weather research. Before we begin, I would like to take a 
moment to extend my sincere condolences to our colleague, 
Representative Sean Casten, whose daughter passed away 
yesterday. I am deeply sorry for his loss, and my thoughts are 
with him and his family during this difficult time.
    I'd now like to welcome all of our esteemed witnesses to 
today's hearing in person after two years of virtual and hybrid 
testimony.
    Weather forecasting plays an integral role in society and a 
crucial role in protecting lives during extreme weather events. 
You may not realize it, but each and every American benefits 
from the Federal investment made to support the National 
Weather Service (NWS) every day. Whether you are using a 
weather app on your phone or watching your local meteorologist 
on the evening news, these products and services depend on 
Federal weather data. Weather forecasting is consistently 
relied on to guide planning across the U.S., whether it's 
deciding whether to take an umbrella on a work commute, 
planning an outdoor gathering with friends and family, or 
determining a seasonal crop plan.
    My district has firsthand experience in the devastation 
that can be caused from extreme weather. The effects of 
Hurricane Sandy are still being felt by my constituents a 
decade later. The Hudson Tunnel remains compromised, and a 
project to rehabilitate the tunnel began only as recently as 
last year. While the Weather Service has significantly improved 
the accuracy of the hurricane track forecasts since Hurricane 
Sandy, there remains a need to improve intensity forecasts as 
well.
    I'm looking forward to hearing from Dr. Scott Glenn of 
Rutgers University on how funding from the Sandy Supplemental 
was critical to his research to better predict and understand 
hurricanes and why robust and consistent Federal funding is 
necessary to support the transition from weather research to 
operations.
    When considering the future of forecasting, it is crucial 
that long-term forecasting is also part of the conversation. 
The Northeast Regional Climate Center reports that over the 
past 20 years, New Jersey has had an increase in extreme 
precipitation. The report further predicts that precipitation 
intensity will continue to increase in my district by up to 50 
percent over the next 80 years from what was observed at the 
end of the 20th century as a result of climate change. In a 
region that has seen the impacts of localized flooding events 
cause hard hits to homes and businesses, this report is 
alarming.
    Just last September, we lost 27 lives across New Jersey in 
the wake of Tropical Storm Ida. The sudden intensity and 
precise location of rainfall and flooding was difficult to 
predict. Emergency responders rescued people from roadways and 
homes where they did not expect flooding to impact them. I 
heard from a mother in my district who, along with her young 
children, had to be rescued from her home at night during 
Hurricane Ida. She said that she had been told at 5 p.m. that 
the storm would pass to the west. Empowering residents with 
accurate long-term and short-term precipitation models will 
give them the information they need when planning a move or a 
new business location or preparing for an accurate weather 
event like--acute weather event like Ida.
    Improving our understanding of precipitation trends and 
hurricane intensity is not just important for my constituents 
but for all Americans. The accuracy of short-term weather 
forecasts in the range of a few days to two weeks has improved 
significantly in recent decades. However, there remain gaps in 
our ability to provide sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts. 
Improved longer-term forecasts that are on the order of weeks 
to months would support the resiliency of critical 
infrastructure sectors like transportation, utility, and energy 
sectors that we rely on every day.
    To better understand what is needed to improve weather 
forecasting, Congress requested a report to identify necessary 
weather research investments. The Priorities for Weather 
Research, or PWR, pronounced ``power,'' report is a compilation 
of expert recommendations from across the U.S. Weather 
Enterprise, made up of public, private, and academic partners. 
This report highlights the investments needed over the next 
decade in weather research, observations, modeling, 
forecasting, and dissemination. It takes into consideration how 
Federal investment in weather research supports the private and 
academic sectors of the weather enterprise. We are fortunate 
that our witness panel today includes not only the co-authors 
of this report but perspectives from across the Weather 
Enterprise.
    In the midst of another Atlantic Hurricane season predicted 
to have above-normal activity, accurate forecasts coupled with 
timely dissemination will be necessary to ensure the safety and 
protect the livelihoods of Americans along the Gulf and East 
Coasts.
    I look forward to hearing more from our witnesses today on 
how Congress can support the U.S. Weather Enterprise through 
Federal investments in weather research that will benefit all 
Americans.
    [The prepared statement of Chairwoman Sherrill follows:]

    Good morning, and welcome to today's hearing on the future 
of weather research. I am especially pleased to welcome all our 
esteemed witnesses to today's hearing in person after two years 
of virtual and hybrid testimony.
    Weather forecasting plays an integral role in society, and 
a crucial role in protecting lives during extreme weather 
events. You may not realize it, but each and every American 
benefits from the federal investments made to support the 
National Weather Service every day. Whether you are using a 
weather app on your phone, or watching your local meteorologist 
on the evening news, these products and services depend on 
federal weather data. Weather forecasting is consistently 
relied on to guide planning across the US--whether it's 
deciding whether to take an umbrella on a work commute, 
planning an outdoor gathering with friends and family, or 
determining a seasonal crop plan.
    My district has first-hand experience in the devastation 
that can be caused from extreme weather. The effects of 
Hurricane Sandy are still being felt by my constituents a 
decade later. The Hudson Tunnel remains compromised, and a 
project to rehabilitate the tunnel began only as recently as 
last year. While the Weather Service has significantly improved 
the accuracy of the hurricane track forecasts since Hurricane 
Sandy, there remains a need to improve intensity forecasts as 
well. I'm looking forward to hearing from Dr. Scott Glenn of 
Rutgers University on how funding from the Sandy Supplemental 
was critical to his research to better predict and understand 
hurricanes, and why robust and consistent federal funding is 
necessary to support the transition from weather research to 
operations.
    When considering the future of forecasting, it is crucial 
that long-term forecasting is also part of the conversation. 
The Northeast Regional Climate Center reports that over the 
past 20 years, New Jersey has had an increase in extreme 
precipitation. The report further predicts that precipitation 
intensity will continue to increase in my district by up to 50% 
over the next eighty years from what was observed at the end of 
the 20th century as a result of climate change. In a region 
that has seen the impacts of localized flooding events cause 
hard hits to homes and businesses, this report is alarming. 
Just last September, we lost 27 lives across New Jersey in the 
wake of Tropical Storm Ida. The sudden intensity and precise 
location of rainfall and flooding was difficult to predict. 
Emergency responders rescued people from roadways and homes 
where they did not expect flooding to impact them. I heard from 
a mother in my district who, along with her young children, had 
to be rescued from her home at night during Hurricane Ida. She 
said that she had been told at 5 pm that the storm would pass 
to the west. Empowering residents with accurate long-term and 
short-term precipitation models will give them the information 
they need when planning a move or new business location or 
preparing for an acute weather event like Ida.
    Improving our understanding of precipitation trends and 
hurricane intensity is not just important for my constituents, 
but for all Americans. The accuracy of short-term weather 
forecasts in the range of a few days to two weeks has improved 
significantly in recent decades. However, there remain gaps in 
our ability to provide subseasonal to seasonal forecasts. 
Improved longer-term forecasts, that are on the order of weeks 
to months would support the resiliency of critical 
infrastructure sectors, like transportation, utility, and 
energy sectors, that we rely on every day.
    To better understand what is needed to improve weather 
forecasting, Congress requested a report to identify necessary 
weather research investments. The Priorities for Weather 
Research, or PWR, report is a compilation of expert 
recommendations from across the U.S. Weather Enterprise, made 
up of public, private, and academic partners. This report 
highlights the investments needed over the next decade in 
weather research, observations, modeling, forecasting, and 
dissemination. It takes into consideration how federal 
investment in weather research supports the private and 
academic sectors of the Weather Enterprise. We are fortunate 
that our witness panel today includes not only the co-leads of 
this report, but perspectives from across the Weather 
Enterprise.
    In the midst of another Atlantic Hurricane season predicted 
to have above normal activity, accurate forecasts coupled with 
timely dissemination will be necessary to ensure the safety, 
and protect the livelihoods, of Americans along the Gulf and 
East Coasts. I look forward to hearing more from our witnesses 
today on how Congress can support the U.S. Weather Enterprise 
through federal investments in weather research that will 
benefit all Americans.

    Chairwoman Sherrill. The Chair now recognizes Ranking 
Member Bice for an opening statement.
    Mrs. Bice. Thank you, Chairwoman Sherrill, and thank you to 
our entire panel of witnesses for taking the time to share your 
expertise with us this morning.
    Weather information does more than just help us decide how 
many layers to wear or whether to bring an umbrella. Forecasts 
based on accurate information are our No. 1 tool in protecting 
the life and property during severe weather events. That's 
extremely important because the United States experiences more 
extreme weather events than any other country. According to the 
National Weather Service, a typical year in the United States 
sees 26,000 thunderstorms, a few of which I see in my community 
weekly, 5,000 floods, 1,300 tornadoes, and six Atlantic basin 
hurricanes.
    Luckily, academia, government, and industry have come 
together in collaboration to improve the timely delivery and 
overall accuracy of weather products and services. Collectively 
known as the U.S. Weather Enterprise, each sector--public, 
private, and academic--plays a critical role in understanding, 
observing, forecasting, and helping warn communities of danger.
    The largest improvement to weather forecasting can be 
directly attributed to both basic and applied research. 
Collaboration across the weather enterprise is critical to 
conducting this research and translating it so it can be 
successfully deployed on a commercial scale. For example, 
atmospheric data collected from a satellite needs unique 
computer modeling and processing power to be useful. And the 
final forecast or output product must integrate behavioral and 
social science to make sure people fully understand it and its 
impact. No one sector can develop or do all of this on their 
own. That's why transitioning research into operations requires 
buy-in and collaboration from everyone. It cannot be a 
competition amongst ourselves.
    To aid in our forecasting goals, there are countless 
emerging technologies that can and should be deployed. 
Automated surface vehicles and gliders in the ocean, drones in 
the sky, and advanced radar systems on the ground all have the 
potential to collect data that can supplement current Federal 
efforts. Pursuing this research and subsequent 
commercialization will be invaluable to the United States and 
our communities. First, it will help us catch up to the 
European Union, which continues to outperform us with more 
accurate forecasting models.
    Second, it will support economic growth. Essential pillars 
of our economy are dependent on knowing what the weather will 
be. For example, we need solar and wind data for renewable 
energy production; precipitation information for ag production; 
water management analysis for urban communities; and accurate 
predictions for road, marine, and aviation transportation. 
These are all areas of increased investment, and all of them 
require forecasts for safe and efficient operation.
    I can't think of a better panel to address this critical 
topic. We have representatives from academia, the private 
sector, and professional societies. I want to especially extend 
my warmest welcome to Dr. Fred Carr, a fellow Oklahoman and 
Professor Emeritus at the University of Oklahoma (OU) with the 
newly minted women's national championship softball team. 
Although I am an Oklahoma State fan myself, I will admit OU is 
widely recognized as a national leader in meteorology and has 
made vital contributions in this field. In fact, the entire 
State of Oklahoma has long been viewed as the center of weather 
advancement in the United States, and I look forward to hearing 
how the National Weather Center in Norman is continuing to lead 
critical research and development.
    Again, I want to thank the witnesses for being here today, 
and I look forward to your testimony. With that, I turn the 
chair back over to Chairwoman Sherrill.
    [The prepared statement of Mrs. Bice follows:]

    Thank you, Chairwoman Sherrill, and thank you to our entire 
panel of witnesses for taking the time to share their expertise 
with us this morning.
    Weather information does more than help us decide how many 
layers to wear or if we need to carry an umbrella. Forecasts 
based on accurate information are our number one tool in 
protecting of life and property during severe weather events.
    That's extremely important because the United States 
experiences more extreme weather events than any other country. 
According to the National Weather Service, a typical year in 
the U.S. sees 26,000 thunderstorms, 5,000 floods, 1,300 
tornadoes, and six Atlantic basin hurricanes.
    Luckily academia, government, and industry have come 
together in collaboration to improve the timely delivery and 
overall accuracy of weather products and services.
    Collectively known as the U.S. Weather Enterprise, each 
sector--public, private, and academic--plays a critical role in 
understanding, observing, forecasting, and helping warn 
communities of danger.
    The largest improvement to weather forecasting can be 
directly attributed to both basic and applied research. 
Collaboration across the weather enterprise is critical to 
conducting this research and translating it so it can be 
successfully deployed on a commercial scale.
    For example, atmospheric data collected from a satellite 
needs unique computer modeling and processing power to be 
useful. And the final forecast or output product must integrate 
behavioral and social science to make sure people fully 
understand it and the impact.
    No one sector can develop and do all of this on their own. 
That is why transitioning research into operations requires buy 
in and collaboration from everyone. It cannot be a competition 
among ourselves.
    To aid in our forecasting goals, there are countless 
emerging technologies that can and should be deployed. 
Automated surface vehicles and gliders in the ocean, drones in 
the sky, and advanced radar systems on the ground all have the 
potential to collect data that can supplement current federal 
efforts.
    Pursuing this research and subsequent commercialization 
will be invaluable to the United States and our communities.
    First, it will help us catch up to the European Union, 
which continues to outperform us with more accurate forecasting 
models.
    Second, it will support our economic growth. Essential 
pillars of our economy are dependent on knowing what the 
weather will be.
    For example, we need solar and wind data for renewable 
energy production; precipitation information for agricultural 
production; water management analysis for urban communities; 
and accurate predictions for road, marine and aviation 
transportation.
    These are all areas of increased investment, and all of 
them require forecasts for safe and efficient operation.
    I can't think of a better panel to address this critical 
topic. We have representatives from academia, the private 
sector, and professional societies.
    I especially want to extend my warmest welcome to Dr. Fred 
Carr, a fellow Oklahoman and Professor Emeritus at the 
University of Oklahoma.
    Although I'm an Oklahoma State Poke myself, I'll admit OU 
is widely recognized as a national leader in meteorology and 
has made vital contributions in this field.
    In fact, the entire state of Oklahoma has long been viewed 
as the center of weather advancement in the U.S. and I look 
forward to hearing how the National Weather Center in Norman is 
continuing to lead critical research and development.
    Again, I want to thank our witnesses for being here today 
and I look forward to each of your testimony. Thank you, 
Chairwoman Sherrill, I yield back the balance of my time.

    Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you. And we are honored to have 
the Full Committee Ranking Member Mr. Lucas with us today. The 
Chair now recognizes Ranking--the Ranking Member for an opening 
statement.
    Mr. Lucas. Thank you for holding today's hearing on this 
important topic, Chairwoman Sherrill.
    Since I became the Ranking Member of this Committee, I have 
time and again stated that the work we do on weather 
forecasting is as important as any topic before us. Protecting 
life and property, helping first responders anticipate maximum 
weather events, or ensuring that farmers and ranchers know when 
to best plant crops are only a few of the reasons having 
accurate weather forecasts is invaluable. And we can only have 
accurate weather forecasts if we continue to invest in 
resources in researching weather patterns.
    The Ranking Member of the Subcommittee and I are both 
honored to represent Oklahoma, home to some of the most 
important weather research occurring today. The National 
Weather Center, located in Norman, brings together NOAA 
(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) researchers, 
the University of Oklahoma faculty, and local weather 
forecasters under one roof. This collaboration is an important 
model for how NOAA research should operate.
    Additionally, Oklahoma is home to the Nation's premier 
mesonet, which provides real-time data thanks to a series of 
small but powerful monitoring stations across the State. The 
mesonet has been a valuable resource for farmers, ranchers, 
first responders, and weather forecasters for more than 25 
years, and I believe our mesonet should serve as a model for 
other weather observation systems across the country.
    It is with this background that I am proud to sponsor the 
Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act, more commonly 
known as the Weather Act. This legislation, signed into law by 
President Trump in April 2017, was the most significant 
weather-related legislation to become law in 25 years. This 
legislation helped redefine NOAA's weather research priorities 
in recent years and also helped spur innovation by creating a 
pilot program which directed the utilization of commercially 
purchased data in NOAA's weather models.
    The Weather Act is due for reauthorization at the end of 
September 2023. Though that is more than a year away, I 
consider today's hearing to be a kickoff in our reauthorization 
process and encourage our witnesses to frame their 
recommendations with this in mind.
    In December of 2020, Congress directed NOAA's Science 
Advisory Board to commission a report on future priorities in 
weather research. This report, completed in December 2021, 
utilized some of the finest minds across the weather 
enterprise. This report contains many recommendations, ranging 
from improving Earth-system modeling to increasing NOAA's 
computing capacity. These recommendations should inform how we 
approach reauthorizing the Weather Act.
    Today's hearing is important because it provides a starting 
point for us in discussions about what areas where we have 
improved our knowledge of weather research, as well as gaps we 
need to address in the future.
    I want to thank the witnesses for sharing their expertise, 
and I look forward to a very productive discussion.
    And before I yield back, just a personal moment to share my 
sincere feelings with the Chairman about the loss of one of our 
colleagues. Nothing can hurt more. And with that, I yield back, 
Madam Chair.
    Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you so much, Mr. Lucas.
    [The prepared statement of Mr. Lucas follows:]

    Thank you for holding today's hearing on this important 
topic, Chairwoman Sherrill.
    Since I became the ranking member of this committee, I have 
time and again stated that the work we do on weather 
forecasting is as important as any topic before us.
    Protecting life and property, helping first responders 
anticipate extreme weather events, or ensuring that farmers and 
ranchers know when best to plant crops are only a few of the 
reasons having accurate weather forecasts is invaluable. And we 
can only have accurate weather forecasts if we continue to 
invest resources in researching weather patterns.
    The ranking member of the subcommittee and I are both 
honored to represent Oklahoma, home to some of the most 
important weather research occurring today. The National 
Weather Center, located in Norman, brings together NOAA 
researchers, University of Oklahoma faculty, and local weather 
forecasters under one roof. This collaboration is an important 
model for how NOAA research should operate.
    Additionally, Oklahoma is home to the nation's premier 
Mesonet, which provides real- time data thanks to a series of 
small, but powerful monitoring states across the state. The 
Mesonet has been a valuable resource for farmers, ranchers, 
first responders and weather forecasters, for more than 25 
years, and I believe our Mesonet should serve as a model for 
other local weather observation systems across the country.
    It is with this background that I was proud to sponsor the 
Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act, more commonly 
known as the Weather Act. This legislation, signed into law by 
President Trump in April of 2017, was the most significant 
weather- related legislation to become law in 25 years. This 
legislation helped redefine NOAA's weather research priorities 
in recent years and also helped spur innovation by creating a 
pilot program which directed the utilization of commercially 
purchased data in NOAA's weather models.
    The Weather Act is due for reauthorization at the end of 
September 2023. Though that is more than a year away, I 
consider today's hearing to be the kickoff in our 
reauthorization process and encourage our witnesses to frame 
their recommendations with this in mind.
    In December 2020, Congress directed NOAA's Science Advisory 
Board to commission a report on future priorities in weather 
research. This report, completed in December 2021, utilized 
some of the finest minds across the weather enterprise. This 
report contains many recommendations, ranging from improving 
Earth-system modeling to increasing NOAA's computing capacity. 
These recommendations should inform how we approach 
reauthorizing the Weather Act.
    Today's hearing is important because it provides a starting 
point for us in discussions about areas where we have improved 
our knowledge of weather research as well as gaps we need to 
address in the future.
    I thank our witnesses for sharing their expertise with us 
and I look forward to a productive discussion. Thank you and I 
yield back.

    Chairwoman Sherrill. At this time, I'd like to introduce 
our witnesses. I'm pleased to introduce a fellow New Jerseyan 
Dr. Scott Glenn as our first witness. Dr. Glenn is a Board of 
Governors Professor of Marine and Coastal Sciences and Co-
Director of the Center for Ocean Observing Leadership at 
Rutgers University. Dr. Glenn's research has focused on the 
development of remote and autonomous technologies for ocean 
observing in extreme environments, the modeling of coupled 
ocean atmosphere systems, and improving the forecasting of 
hurricanes. Dr. Glenn is one of the NOAA SAB (Science Advisory 
Board) PWR report co-leads.
    Our next witness is Dr. Brad Colman. Dr. Colman is the 
Director of Weather Strategy for the Bayer Climate LLC, and 
President-Elect of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). 
At Bayer, he coordinates across multiple divisions to set 
weather priorities and works with scientists, engineers, and 
vendors to deliver critical environmental information across 
Bayer's global agriculture industry. Prior to joining the 
private sector, Dr. Colman had a nearly four-decade-long career 
with NOAA, ranging from a forecaster to NOAA NWS Lab Director. 
Dr. Colman is also one of the NOAA SAB PWR report co-leads.
    Our next witness today is Dr. Frederick Carr. Dr. Carr is 
currently the McCasland Foundation Presidential Professor 
Emeritus and Director Emeritus in the School of Meteorology at 
the University of Oklahoma. His research interests include 
numerical weather prediction, data assimilation, synoptic 
mesoscale and tropical meteorology, and use of new observing 
systems. Among his wide variety of professional activities, Dr. 
Carr was the President of the American Meteorological Society 
in 2016, served on the AMS's Executive Committee from 2015 to 
2019, and is a Fellow of the AMS in addition to currently 
chairing its Committee on Ethics.
    Our final witness is Dr. Kevin Petty. Dr. Petty is the Vice 
President of Weather and Earth Intelligence at Spire. Dr. Petty 
oversees science and engineering associated with the delivery 
of weather-related products and solutions, as well as the 
development of new observations that support our understanding 
of the planet. Before joining Spire, Dr. Petty was the Director 
of Science and Weather--and forecast operations at The Weather 
Company, an IBM Business. He has also worked as a Project 
Scientist and Scientific Program Manager with the National 
Center for Atmospheric Research, and Senior Meteorologist for 
the National Transportation Safety Board.
    If there are Members who wish to submit additional opening 
statements, your statements will be added to the record at this 
point.
     [The prepared statement of Chairwoman Johnson follows:]

    Good morning, everyone. I want to thank Chairwoman Sherrill 
for holding today's hearing on a very important topic: the 
future of weather research. I also want to welcome our 
witnesses and I look forward to your testimony.
    The U.S. Weather Enterprise-the public sector, the private 
sector, and academia-have made considerable strides in 
improving forecasts over the past few decades. However, we must 
not become complacent and assume this progress is enough-it is 
not.
    As many of you know, high-temperature records are being 
shattered across the southern U.S. Last Saturday, temperatures 
in my district and the surrounding areas in the DFW Metroplex 
exceeded 100 degrees Fahrenheit for the first time in 2022. The 
last time we exceeded 100 degrees this early in the year was 
2010.
    We have often discussed in this Committee how climate 
change is leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather 
events.
    From 2017 to 2021, the cumulative cost of billion-dollar or 
greater weather and climate disasters was nearly three-quarters 
of a trillion dollars. And last year alone, there were twenty 
major disasters resulting in approximately 145 billion dollars 
of damages. These damages, and the human toll, would have been 
would far greater if we hadn't previously invested in weather 
research.
    It is essential that we have the necessary resources and 
capabilities to accurately predict these weather events, as 
well as to prepare our communities for them.
    In order to better understand what is needed to support 
American excellence in weather forecasting, we turned to the 
experts.
    In 2019, Congress charged NOAA's Science Advisory Board 
(SAB) to assess the needs for weather research. Specifically, 
the SAB was charged with identifying the Federal investments in 
weather research and forecasting needed over the next decade. 
As a result, NOAA's SAB produced the Priorities of Weather 
Research report in December of 2021.
    We are fortunate to have four experts in weather research 
testifying this morning, which includes the NOAA SAB report's 
co-leads. This report could not be better timed. In 2022, we 
have to shift the paradigm around weather forecasting in the 
U.S.
    We must make decisions about forecasting improvements with 
the needs of the most vulnerable communities at the forefront, 
and not as an afterthought. This will require robust and 
consistent funding from Congress. This Committee will have a 
key legislative and oversight role to play.
    Today's hearing is a continuation of this Committee's work 
to discuss topics pertinent to improving U.S. weather 
forecasting.
    The major themes in this report align with topics we have 
often discussed on this Committee. The case has been made many 
times over for the need to improve weather forecasting in the 
U.S.
    What is left for Congress to do is provide clear direction, 
and commensurate funding, to support weather research 
improvements. We cannot afford to underinvest in weather 
research. The time to act is now.
    I am looking forward to hearing from our esteemed panel of 
witnesses what the Federal government must prioritize in 
weather research. I hope today's hearing will serve as a 
roadmap for the future of NOAA's National Weather Service and 
the Weather Enterprise. With that, I yield back.

    Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you to all of our witnesses for 
joining us today.
    And at this point, we will begin our first round of 
questions. I'll now recognize myself for five minutes. Oh, 
sorry. So I'm going to recognize the witnesses in the order I 
introduced them. As you recall, you each have five minutes for 
your opening statements.
    So we'll start with Dr. Glenn.

                 TESTIMONY OF DR. SCOTT GLENN,

              BOARD OF GOVERNORS PROFESSOR CENTER

                 FOR OCEAN OBSERVING LEADERSHIP

                  OF THE DEPARTMENT OF MARINE

            AND COASTAL SCIENCES, RUTGERS UNIVERSITY

    Dr. Glenn. Chairwoman Sherrill, Ranking Member Bice, 
Ranking Member Lucas, Members of the Subcommittee, I sincerely 
thank you all for the opportunity to speak today on the future 
of weather research and forecasting for our Nation. My name is 
Scott Glenn. I'm a Professor at Rutgers, the State University 
of New Jersey. And I'm--I was one of the co-leads for the NOAA 
Science Advisory Board report on the Priorities for Weather 
Research, often referred to as the PWR report. The views that 
I'm sharing today are my own and not those of Rutgers or NOAA.
    The PWR report was produced by over 150 subject matter 
experts from across the weather enterprise. Through a consensus 
approach, experts from multiple sectors and disciplines came 
together to provide policymakers the information necessary to 
prioritize Federal investments in weather research and 
forecasting over the next decade.
    PWR is an urgent call to action. That urgency is driven by 
the increasing frequency of extreme weather events that cause 
hundreds of deaths and hundreds of billions of dollars of 
damage each year. It is driven by the need to develop a vibrant 
economy that leverages weather information into competitive 
advantages, and it is driven by the need to support equity and 
environmental justice across our Nation.
    The PWR report responds by documenting priority investments 
across the three pillars of the weather enterprise: 
observations and data assimilation, forecasting, and 
information delivery.
    These pillars are built on the strong foundational elements 
of the weather enterprise itself, the people trained through 
work force development, the high-performance computing (HPC) 
for operations and research, and the world's best science. 
Taken together, the pillars and their foundational elements 
support our shared goal of a weather-ready nation.
    The results of the PWR study are 11 priority areas for 
investment, 33 recommendations and envisioned outcomes, and 102 
specific critical actions to achieve these goals. Acting on 
these recommendations will be transformational for NOAA, the 
weather enterprise, and the people we serve.
    To illustrate how this broad range of recommendations work 
together to support specific needs, PWR produced five narrative 
themes. One of those themes is high-impact weather. One example 
within this theme, the example I've studied my entire career, 
is hurricanes. Hurricanes are among the most destructive 
weather events on Earth. Since 1980, hurricanes have caused 
over $1 trillion in damage in the United States, more than all 
other weather and climate billion-dollar disasters combined.
    In my home State of New Jersey, over 80 percent of the 
billion-dollar disaster damage was caused by hurricanes. Having 
lived through the intense winds and flooding caused by 
Hurricanes Floyd, Irene, Sandy, Isaias, and Ida, I personally 
know the value of the good forecasts from our trusted National 
Hurricane Center.
    Through disaster supplemental appropriations provided by 
Congress that support hurricane observations and research, our 
science community has also learned what we can do to help make 
forecasts even better. Our team has pioneered new technologies 
for ocean observing in extreme conditions. We have used those 
technologies to develop a fundamentally new understanding of 
how the atmosphere and ocean are coupled and can rapidly co-
evolve as hurricanes approach my home State. And we have helped 
transition both observation and modeling improvements into 
operational systems for NOAA, the Coast Guard and the Navy.
    Fundamental to those advances is continuing NOAA's 
transition to an Earth system modeling approach. This will 
require observations of the atmosphere and the ocean below. It 
will require high-performance computing for operations and 
research. And it will require collaboration that crosses line 
offices and sectors. All of the investment categories and 
approaches are outlined in the PWR report.
    As one specific example, hurricane forecasting in the 
United States has long benefited from Federal investments in 
the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program. However, success is 
currently being limited, not by vision, but by support. In my 
written testimony I've outlined three ways hurricane forecast 
improvements are being limited and what can be done about it.
    In conclusion, PWR provides a framework for transformation. 
Trends in extreme weather events lend urgency. I urge this 
Committee and Congress to act upon the recommendations outlined 
the PWR report so that together we can build and are able to 
serve the needs of our Nation. Thank you.
    [The prepared statement of Dr. Glenn follows:]

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    Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you, Dr. Glenn. Next, I 
recognize Dr. Colman for five minutes.

        TESTIMONY OF DR. BRADLEY COLMAN, PRESIDENT-ELECT

            OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY;

                 DIRECTOR OF WEATHER-STRATEGY,

                BAYER & THE CLIMATE CORPORATION

    Dr. Colman. Good morning. Chairwoman Sherrill, Ranking 
Member Bice, Committee Ranking Member Lucas and Members of the 
Subcommittee, thank you for this hearing and for inviting me to 
speak with you today about the future of weather research and 
forecasting. My name is Brad Colman. I'm currently the Director 
of Weather Strategy for Bayer's Climate Corporation, President-
Elect of the American Meteorological Society, and co-lead with 
Dr. Glenn on the PWR report. The views I am sharing are my own 
and not those of Bayer or NOAA.
    I want to thank the Subcommittee for your support of the 
Weather Act and the NIDIS Reauthorization Act. These acts have 
been highly impactful and provide critical groundwork for many 
of the PWR report priorities.
    My testimony is based on four decades with NOAA, followed 
by nearly a decade in private industry. I worked across 
multiple levels at NOAA from Forecaster to Lab Director. At 
Bayer, we, like many other businesses, leverage NOAA's array of 
products, which supplement our own data and in-house expertise 
to serve our leading global agricultural business. I have seen 
NOAA's impact from the inside and out, and I have complementing 
perspectives of both its past and its potential future value.
    Today, we face sobering weather-related statistics. The 
Nation is suffering from increasing billion-dollar disasters 
and the loss of hundreds of Americans annually, all despite 
continually improving forecasts and warnings. Five-day 
forecasts are as good or better than 3-day forecasts were at 
the turn of the century. Forecast skill is now extending into 
the second week. Hurricane track forecasts at day 5 are now as 
good as a 2-day forecast was just in 1990. The benefits to the 
public, transportation, and private industry are remarkable.
    These gains were not achieved through singular investments, 
major breakthroughs, or by a single sector of the weather 
enterprise. Federal investments have been instrumental 
including the 88D radar network, next-generation satellites, 
and the National Weather Service's Weather-Ready Nation 
program. The academic and private sectors have made equally 
critical contributions. If done correctly, with planning and 
coordination across all sectors, the weather enterprise can 
extend this proven track record well beyond the next decade.
    I now want to discuss a core section of the report, 
critical first steps. This section lists 10 actions essential 
to the success of any comprehensive Federal investment plan. 
They are a subset of all recommendations in the report and fall 
into one of four areas: research and development, 
infrastructure, actions and impacts, and NOAA prioritization 
and investment.
    The first area, research and development, includes Earth 
system modeling, data assimilation, and social and behavioral 
sciences. As forecasting skill has increased, a significant gap 
has grown between weather information produced and known by 
forecasters and what is understood and acted upon by public and 
emergency management communities. Addressing this gap is 
especially critical for historically underserved and socially 
vulnerable populations. Investments in this area need to be 
significantly increased in order to achieve the full benefit 
from other investments in the weather information pipeline.
    I do not have time to speak to the area of infrastructure, 
which includes data assimilation, high-performance computing, 
and Earth system observing networks.
    The actions and impacts area includes reanalysis and 
reforecasting, high-impact weather and water cycle extremes. 
Reanalysis and reforecasting in support of operational 
numerical model development is critical and it needs immediate 
attention at NOAA. In fact, the launch of their first Earth 
system model scheduled for 2026 cannot be successfully 
implemented without this gap being addressed.
    The final area is NOAA prioritization and investment. At 
times, NOAA has struggled to align internal priorities and 
partner with external groups. This has likely reduced their 
overall impact. As such, increased Federal investments in NOAA 
National Weather Service programs would greatly benefit from 
NOAA having improved methods to assess, balance, and align 
these investments. Additionally, NOAA stands to benefit by 
increased partnerships with a broader weather enterprise. A 
strong private industry can provide value in the form of 
otherwise unavailable data, products, and services to Federal 
agencies that in turn accelerate the overall research and 
innovation through partnerships, including with the academic 
sector. Successes in this area are wins for the weather 
enterprise and wins for the Nation.
    In closing, this is a critical time. Our Nation is 
increasingly challenged by weather extremes and climate change 
impacts. The benefits of executing a successful PWR plan would 
be transformational. Together, we need to build off past 
successes, learn from past challenges, and work together toward 
a better prepared weather-ready nation.
    Thank you, and I look forward to your questions.
    [The prepared statement of Dr. Colman follows:]

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    Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you, Dr. Colman.
    I now recognize Dr. Carr for five minutes.

        TESTIMONY OF DR. FRED CARR, PROFESSOR EMERITUS,

         SCHOOL OF METEOROLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA

    Dr. Carr. Thank you. Good morning. Chairwoman Sherrill, 
Ranking Member Bice, Science Committee Ranking Member Lucas, 
Subcommittee Members, it is an honor for me to testify about 
the future of weather research and forecasting for our Nation. 
My name is Frederick Carr from the University of Oklahoma, and 
I speak to you today as one who has spent over 40 years either 
working to improve computer-based weather prediction models or 
advising NOAA leaders on how to improve U.S. weather prediction 
capabilities.
    While National Weather Service forecasts are of high 
quality and provide great economic value, these forecasts are 
not world-best. Other global weather modeling centers produce 
greater forecast accuracy than we do. This gap shows that 
improved forecasts are possible and thus represents an 
opportunity for NOAA to serve the Nation even better than it 
does now.
    How do we achieve this improved skill? The good news is 
that we can improve forecasts of all high-impact weather 
phenomena--hurricanes, wildfires, flash flooding, severe 
storms, tornadoes, blizzards, heat and cold waves, droughts--by 
investments in three things: A, increased observations of the 
Earth system; B, development of Earth system models; and C, 
high-performance computing. Investments balanced across all 
three areas will enhance the skill of future forecast models, 
improve the guidance provided to weather forecasters, and lead 
to greater public safety and protection of the Nation's 
infrastructure.
    Let's expand upon the needed investments, A, observations. 
First, we need to maximize use of underutilized observations to 
realize the benefits of investments already made. Second, we 
need to add observational capacity to increase the detail and 
accuracy of Earth system measurements. For B, Earth system 
model, an Earth system model is a sophisticated forecast system 
that includes not only the atmosphere but the ocean, land 
surface, ice, air pollution, et cetera. The Earth system model 
is projected forward in time by supercomputers to produce 
weather forecasts and seasonal outlooks. Thus, we advocate that 
current models need to upgrade to Earth system models to enable 
more accurate forecasts on all timescales.
    Here are some of the investments needed here. One, 
accelerate development of Earth system models by supporting 
research on the physical interactions among all its various 
components.
    Two, use of Earth system models cannot be done without 
first determining the biases and errors in these models. This 
process must be done for all forecast systems.
    Three, develop improved storm scale models to forecast 
hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, wildfire 
evolution, and storm surge.
    And four, continue to invest in the Earth Prediction 
Innovation Center, or EPIC, to incentivize and support external 
partners to conduct research to improve NOAA's weather forecast 
systems.
    And C, high-performance computing. None of the increases in 
weather forecast skill over the past 50 years would have been 
possible without high-performance computing, or HPC. The 
weather community thanks Congress for recent HPC allocations, 
but there are still three problems. One, the allocations are 
often done via supplements and not via a sustained annual 
investment.
    Two, research HPC capacity lags operational HPC, whereas it 
should be at least three times greater.
    And three, U.S. HPC is still behind other global weather 
prediction centers. Thus, the following investments are needed 
in this area:
    One, expand HPC capacity by two orders of magnitude or 100 
times over the next 10 years.
    Two, concomitant investments in storage, transmission, 
access, security, and software engineering must also be made.
    And three, NOAA must prepare for future HPC architectures, 
develop a culture of rapid adaptation, and train a skilled work 
force.
    Finally, I note that six Department of Energy labs have 
already acquired or soon will acquire exascale computing 
systems, each of which is 25 to 50 times more powerful than all 
of NOAA's computer systems combined. Why can't NOAA get some of 
this exascale action? Thus, we encourage Congress and NOAA to 
be more ambitious in enhancing HPC capacity in order to better 
serve the American public. Thank you.
    [The prepared statement of Dr. Carr follows:]

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    Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you, Dr. Carr. Next, I recognize 
Dr. Petty for five minutes.

              TESTIMONY OF DR. KEVIN R. PETTY, VP,

       WEATHER AND EARTH INTELLIGENCE, SPIRE GLOBAL, INC.

    Dr. Petty. Chairwoman Sherrill, Ranking Member Bice, and 
Ranking Member Lucas, as well as the rest of the Members of the 
Subcommittee on Environment, thank you for allowing me the 
opportunity to speak with you about what is a very important 
topic for our Nation, priorities for weather research and 
forecasting.
    As part of my comments, I would like to share some high-
level thoughts and perspectives on the Priorities for Weather 
Research report. I would also like to highlight the role of the 
private sector in achieving the desired outcomes of the report.
    However, first, I would like to convey why this topic is so 
important to me. I have essentially spent my entire career 
working in the weather enterprise. I have held positions in the 
public, private, and academic sectors. During this time, I've 
endeavored to promote and contribute to research and 
development efforts that result in significant improvements in 
weather analysis and forecasting.
    However, on December 30, 2021, this endeavor became quite 
personal. On that day, Colorado saw its most destructive 
wildfire in history, the Marshall Fire. The Marshall Fire, 
which was exacerbated by high winds and dry conditions, burned 
roughly 6,000 acres, destroyed over 1,000 homes and structures, 
and damaged nearly another 180, one of which was my home. We 
watched as entire neighborhoods burned to the ground in 
minutes. And to this day, my family remains displaced. Although 
we have made great strides in weather research and forecasting 
over the last several decades, there is still much to be done 
if we're going to prevent billion-dollar disasters such as this 
one.
    The Priorities for Weather Research report is a timely 
exemplary document that identifies and recommends investments 
designed to foster new and improved capabilities that can serve 
to reduce the number and severity of high-impact events such as 
the Marshall Fire. The report rightly expresses the fact that 
the scope of the investments necessary to support the 
advancement of weather for society is vast. Thus, it will be 
difficult for NOAA to make the material investments across all 
of the identified priority areas. Where it makes sense, NOAA 
should attempt to partner not only with the academic sector, 
but it should also make use of the competencies and resources 
found in the private sector. As the private sector has grown, 
so has its ability to carry out rigorous, high-quality research 
and development.
    For example, Spire made significant investments that led to 
the successful deployment of one of the world's largest 
multipurpose satellite constellations with over 100 satellites 
operationally in orbit today. This constellation delivers a 
rich and unique set of data about the atmosphere and Earth. 
Spire is proud to be a Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador, and 
it's honored to be a supplier of radio occultation data to NOAA 
through the Commercial Data Program. None of this would have 
been possible without Spire's willingness to invest in science 
and technology research.
    NOAA is and will remain a cornerstone of the weather 
enterprise. It serves as a catalyst in driving research and 
forecast investments to mitigate the impacts of weather, water, 
and climate extremes. It is crucial that NOAA's investments are 
strategic, particularly from the perspective of ensuring that 
our Nation is a global leader in weather prediction. 
Fundamentally, it is forecast accuracy and reliability that 
drive the effectiveness of downstream weather-related products, 
services, and solutions, including many offerings found in the 
private sector. NOAA should recognize and carefully consider 
its limitations and formulate a research and development 
investment strategy that includes clear tradeoffs.
    As part of its efforts, NOAA would benefit from identifying 
and acknowledging the investments and contributions being made 
by others in the weather enterprise. It should not run the risk 
of replicating such investments, nor should it risk diluting 
its investments to the point that tangible and sustained 
progress in key areas is limited or negated, especially for 
core areas associated with forecast accuracy and reliability. 
This will require strong leadership and an organizational 
culture that embraces a more well-defined and focused approach.
    Most importantly, NOAA's ability to effectively respond to 
the recommendations found in the report is rooted in its 
ability to create strong, long-lasting partnerships. By doing 
so, our great Nation will be able to recognize the full power 
and extent of the weather enterprise and what it has to offer.
    Thank you for this opportunity to share this testimony. I 
hope you found it helpful. And I welcome any questions or 
comments you may have.
    [The prepared statement of Dr. Petty follows:]

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    Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you, Dr. Petty.
    So at this point, we will begin our first round of 
questions, and I recognize myself for five minutes.
    Unfortunately, New Jersey is no stranger to catastrophic 
flooding events, as demonstrated recently by Hurricane Ida. 
However, large-scale events are not the only weather concern in 
my district. As I mentioned in my opening statement, the 
Northeast Regional Climate Center predicts that by the end of 
this century, precipitation will increase by as much as 50 
percent. These changes in precipitation area flooding are 
already being felt by the residents in my district.
    And I recently introduced the PRECIP Act, which passed in 
the House, and will direct NOAA to update out-of-date 
precipitation data that can be utilized for decisionmaking in 
extreme weather events such as hurricanes, as well as for more 
long-term decisions, such as buying a home in a flood zone. 
NOAA's Precipitation Grand Challenge aligns with this goal. 
Among other targets, it aims to update weather models to 
provide timely and accurate forecasts that can be utilized by 
citizens to make crucial decisions.
    Dr. Colman, as a Member of NOAA's Science Advisory Board, 
you have experience with their weather modeling framework. How 
will investments into NOAA's weather research assist the agency 
in their work to update precipitation data and meet this grand 
challenge? What work do you needs to be done in collaborating 
with other members of the weather enterprise to ensure that 
this data meets end users in a timely and accessible way?
    Dr. Colman. Thank you, Chairwoman Sherrill, for the 
question. It's a complicated answer in my mind. The return 
frequency of events and the shift in probabilities of events, 
as we move through this period of climate change, are difficult 
to measure and ultimately require a collaboration across many 
different entities and sectors. Certainly, as we move into the 
next generation of models, as Dr. Carr presented about Earth 
system modeling, one aspect is the reanalysis and reforecasting 
piece, which I mentioned and emphasized how critical it is to 
successfully develop these new models. This work will give us 
insights into the distribution of events and the evolution of 
events as we move forward. So investing in the model and 
associated infrastructure is primary, but it goes into 
statistical analyses as well, and how you do the analyses to 
attribute different events to different causes.
    Yes, maybe I'll stop there.
    Chairwoman Sherrill. Well, thank you, Dr. Colman.
    And, Dr. Glenn, as a New Jersey resident, you are familiar 
with the devastation that hurricanes like Sandy, and more 
recently, Ida caused New Jersey due to extreme precipitation. 
How would advancing research related to the total water level 
support improvements to weather forecasting overall? How would 
the updates to probable maximum precipitation and Atlas 14 
estimates like what is included in PRECIP--in my PRECIP and the 
FLOODS Act relate to this work?
    Dr. Glenn. Thank you, Chairwoman Sherrill. Total water 
level is the critical piece of this because we see with 
hurricanes and storms, they're traveling slower, there's more 
rain involved with them, with the warming ocean, there's more 
moisture in the atmosphere. And so improving all these models 
is one of the very important pieces of this. That improvement 
over and over again, you'll see through the PWR report, comes 
through several levels. One is the observations that are made 
there to improve our understanding of the processes. 
Precipitation is a very hard process to forecast. It's like 
hurricane intensity. These are the two important pieces that--
the two critical pieces. How do we get the hurricane intensity 
right? How do we get the quantitative precipitation right? 
That's why there's those grand challenges.
    So critical pieces of that, especially for a place like New 
Jersey, whereas we look at the climate projections and we see 
that storms are going to be more slower moving, there's going 
to be more heavy rainfall, there's going to be stronger winds. 
So the stronger winds will produce more storm surge, the 
heavier rains will produce more flooding from the rivers, and 
so the combination of New Jersey being in the middle of that, 
you know, ocean water coming from the ocean side, the river 
water coming from the other side, so it's a very important 
piece to get the total water level right. In Sandy, there was 
so much of this discussion to figure out how much was from the 
ocean and how much was from the rivers. Thank you.
    Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you and I'll--very quickly 
because I just have a few minutes. A lot of States are 
undertaking their own research initiatives such as New Jersey's 
DEP (Department of Environmental Protection). So, Dr. Glenn, 
can you comment on how regional climate modeling like the 
efforts of New Jersey can help communities and businesses 
prepare and adapt to the extreme weather impacts of climate 
change?
    Dr. Glenn. Sure, thank you, Chairwoman Sherrill. The 
regional models that we are, you know, considering for the for 
the New Jersey area, they're--the critical piece here is that, 
you know, the sea level is rising for many reasons. In our 
area, we have the subsidence of the land, which is also very 
important, and plus that rise that just changes the baseline. 
And so that's very important for our area. The changes in the 
rainfall are very important. And the changes in the storm 
frequency are very important. So you consider those three 
pieces adding up together is an important part of this.
    Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you, Dr. Glenn. And, sorry, I 
kind of cheated. I got you right at the end. And you didn't 
have as much time----
    Dr. Glenn. It's OK.
    Chairwoman Sherrill [continuing]. But we can also add some 
questions for the record.
    At this point, I would like to recognize the Ranking Member 
of the Subcommittee Mrs. Bice for five minutes.
    Mrs. Bice. Thank you.
    Several reports show that only a small fraction of 
satellite data we currently collect is utilized by forecast 
models. Dr. Petty, what are your thoughts on how we can extract 
more value from this significant amount of existing satellite 
data?
    Dr. Petty. Thank you, Ranking Member Bice. I think that's 
an excellent question from the standpoint that as the report, 
which is an excellent report, calls out, we need to continue to 
do work on data assimilation. And data assimilation is a key 
aspect of how we gain an initial understanding of the state of 
the atmosphere. So as we forecast that atmosphere future in 
time or forward in time, those forecasts become better. Through 
data assimilation, and through investments of data 
assimilation, we will be able to take more and better advantage 
of those satellite observations.
    I will also just quickly add that as we move forward in 
time, there are opportunities to improve those satellite 
observations. And so as we identify gaps and determine how to 
fill those gaps, satellite platforms will be one component of 
that, along with terrestrial observations.
    Mrs. Bice. And when you say--when you talk about data 
assimilation, what is the best way to do that? Are you talking 
academia, private industry? What do you feel like is a good 
pathway for that?
    Dr. Petty. Yes, I think that, that pathways across the 
board, the report points out some efforts to bring the 
community get together through aspects of things like JEDI 
(Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration), which is a 
data assimilation initiative. Through that initiative, we're 
bringing the academic sector together, along with the public 
sector and the private sector. Some people don't recognize that 
even in the private sector, there are teams doing data 
assimilation. So that's an opportunity as well, to bring these 
scientists together to work on the best solutions.
    Mrs. Bice. Thank you. In the coming weeks, I'll be 
introducing a bill that codifies and expands the National 
Mesonet Program. The goal is to encourage and incentivize more 
States to build out or upgrade their systems so that we can 
have more mesoscale data across the country. Dr. Carr, given 
your familiarity with the Oklahoma Mesonet, how can we--how can 
more mesonet observation supplement--wow, I'm off today. Dr. 
Carr, given your familiarity with the Oklahoma Mesonet, how can 
more mesonet observations supplement, improve, and add value to 
the satellite data we currently have? I think your microphone 
may be turned off, Dr. Carr.
    Dr. Carr. I don't know if I ever had it on. Can I have the 
5 minutes? No, anyway, I think that's a great question. I'm 
glad to hear that--what you're about to propose. I think we 
have 30-something States with mesonets now all trying to match 
the gold standard that the Oklahoma Mesonet sets, so getting 
all the States on board would be great.
    I think the most important addition that we could add is to 
add the third dimension to the mesonet program. So they're 
starting now, but, you know, there's tens of thousands of 
surface measurements all over the United States. But as soon as 
you go up 100 meters, there's almost nothing. There's 70 
radiosondes, you know, weather balloon stations. So we really 
need to increase the third dimension and add observing systems 
like profiling, vertical profiling networks to measure 
temperature and moisture and wind in the lowest--what we call 
the lowest mile of the atmosphere. We call it the boundary 
layer. So an increase in measurements in the lowest levels of 
the atmosphere in a three-dimensional way would be the most 
important thing we could do.
    Mrs. Bice. Thank you. As all of you know, NOAA is 
developing and releasing a user-friendly Community Earth System 
Model. There is also progress toward standing up the Earth 
Prediction Innovation Center, EPIC, which addresses the 
research-to-operations challenge by requiring NOAA to leverage 
expertise across the broader weather enterprise. How can 
capabilities like the Community Earth System Model and EPIC be 
most easily leveraged by academic institutions for research and 
education? That's open to any of you.
    Dr. Carr. Yes, I was very involved in the creation of EPIC. 
So it's got a great start. We have Raytheon, who got the first 
contract, and they have a lot of task orders to provide 
computer support and move the codes to the cloud, provide user 
support. But what's missing in that contract is that we want 
the community and the private sector and everyone to be 
involved in improving the models, but there's no funding for 
this community. So Raytheon is doing its tasks on users and 
computer support, technical support, which is really important 
because we're short on software engineering that they have. But 
in order for the community to be involved, the private sector 
partners and the academic partners need funding to do the 
research needed to improve the models.
    Mrs. Bice. Thank you for the witnesses for being here this 
morning, and I yield back.
    Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you. And I'd like to bring to 
the Subcommittee's attention a letter for the record from PJM 
Interconnection, LLC. PJM is the Nation's largest regional 
transmission organization, responsible for ensuring the 
reliability of the high voltage electric grid and planning the 
expansion of the transmission grid. PJM is regulated by the 
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and serves all or parts of 
the States of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, 
Virginia, North Carolina, West Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky, 
Tennessee, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, and the District of 
Columbia. This letter highlights the importance of NOAA's 
activities as a critical input to PJM's work in ensuring the 
reliable operation of the electric power grid.
    So without objection, I am placing these documents in the 
record.
    Next, I would like to recognize Congresswoman Bonamici for 
five minutes.
    Ms. Bonamici. Thank you so much, Chair Sherrill and Ranking 
Member Bice, for hosting this hearing, and thank you to our 
witnesses.
    We know that weather events are increasing in frequency and 
severity because of climate change, and in the past few years, 
northwest Oregon has experienced lethal heat waves and 
devastating wildfires. We also continue to prepare for a 
potentially catastrophic seismic event off our coastline.
    I worked in the past with Ranking Member Lucas and others 
on the historic and bipartisan Weather Research and Forecasting 
Innovation Act, which is intended to improve weather 
forecasting and increase Federal weather coordination.
    Dr. Glenn, how can improved weather forecasting prepare 
communities for severe weather events? And how can improved 
weather modeling deepen our understanding of the consequences 
of climate change?
    Dr. Glenn. Thank you, Congresswoman, for that question. So 
how can we help the communities prepare? The third pillar of 
the whole weather enterprise was the information delivery piece 
of that. That's the critical piece that often gets left off the 
table, right? Many of the priorities come up at the beginning 
of the value chain, at the getting the data to improve our 
understanding, improving the model and all that. But then we 
have to communicate with those communities.
    And so we see how that's done in places like the Hurricane 
Center or something like that, where they had that trusted 
relationship with the emergency managers, and they have the 
ensemble of guidance that is guiding them. And so we talked to 
those hurricane centers, and they say, improve the accuracy of 
those ensemble models. That's the first step that you have to 
do. And so that's why you always hear us talking about that as 
that first step.
    And then that second step is building that trust with the 
emergency managers that have the real-time data coming in so 
they can choose this is the ensemble piece and then this is the 
piece that we want to communicate.
    And then there's all the research on how you communicate 
with those groups that has to be funded at some point so that 
we can understand their needs and bring them back. And that's 
how the requirements flow back through the whole weather 
enterprise. And so there's this important research on how we 
communicate, especially in probabilistic forecasts and the 
longer-term forecasts.
    Ms. Bonamici. I appreciate that. And I remember, and I'm 
sure Mr. Lucas does as well, all the conversations about the 
social science of communication and making sure that the 
message is clear and urgent.
    So, Dr. Carr, your testimony and findings from the NOAA 
study indicate that immediate investments in our weather work 
force are needed to fill existing gaps so that, in the future, 
the Nation can rely on a highly technical and diverse work 
force trained in modern weather forecasting techniques. So, Dr. 
Carr, what is the existing pipeline for the weather work force, 
and where is further investment needed? What steps can we take 
to make sure this work force can be effectively mobilized 
during times of crisis?
    Dr. Carr. OK, thank you. For that question, a couple of 
aspects to that. One is, is that the research that we talk 
about that is needed also helps the work force issue so that 
the professors, researchers have graduate students, and these 
become the future work force. So when something is really 
technical like data assimilation, if we provide more research 
to work with NOAA on this issue and you have more graduate 
students and postdocs, that will increase the work force.
    We, of course, need a lot of software engineering from the 
computer science component of universities and the private 
sector. And the issue there is they're very expensive for a 
government to hire. The private sector will always pay software 
engineers more, so we need a way for NOAA to have an entity 
like EPIC that can hire software engineers maybe at the going 
rate and then help with the IT (information technology) aspect 
of that problem.
    Ms. Bonamici. Does anybody else have thoughts on how we can 
bolster the work force? I have 30 seconds left. Dr. Petty?
    Dr. Petty. Yes, absolutely. I think kind of following on to 
what Dr. Carr has said, utilizing those funds to build 
partnerships, so, for example, when I talk about the private 
sector, the private sector is really looking at those 
partnerships, hey, we can have interns who can be a part of the 
private sector and learn the technology, learn the research so 
that we're working together to build that work force. And I 
think that's an important approach.
    Ms. Bonamici. I appreciate that. And as I yield back, Madam 
Chair, I just want to note as well the important issue of the 
high-performance computing. And I know this Committee has 
worked on quantum initiatives and others that are so important 
to this issue. Thank you. I yield back.
    Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you. And I now recognize the 
Ranking Member of the Full Committee, Mr. Lucas, for five 
minutes.
    Mr. Lucas. Thank you, Chairwoman. And I'm going to address 
my question the entire panel. As I mentioned in my testimony, 
this Committee will be charged with reauthorizing the Weather 
Act during the next Congress. The report you've highlighted 
today will undoubtedly inform our deliberations as we think 
ahead on the topic. Given your respective roles in crafting 
this report, would each of you highlight one recommendation for 
this Committee as we consider topics to address in the upcoming 
Weather Act? Just one, and I don't care who starts. And if we 
have enough time, everybody, our way, gentleman.
    Dr. Petty. I'll be happy to start. My recommendation is 
found in the report, and that is enhancing our observations, 
particularly observations of the boundary layer. That's a 
critical component that we're missing as part of our data 
assimilation or modeling to make our forecast better.
    Mr. Lucas. Dr. Glenn?
    Dr. Glenn. Thank you. I was also going to focus on 
observations. I think that's a critical part, the Earth systems 
observations. Many of our networks have been started, have 
demonstrated value, but they're incomplete, especially our 
ocean-observing networks. And so completing the existing ones, 
as we expand out to the new ones that are needed by the new 
Earth systems models, would be what I would highlight.
    Dr. Colman. Yes, thank you for the question. As we tried to 
point out in the report, we don't feel it's one simple answer. 
It's got to be across the whole board. Having said that, I will 
call out the information delivery piece. As I mentioned in my 
testimony, there is an increasing gap between what we're able 
to produce, the numerical models, and the--what the forecasters 
then produce and send out than what people are getting and 
understanding. And we see that in day-to-day weather events 
where people take the wrong action. And we really need to put 
that investment in the behavioral and social sciences upfront 
and make sure we're getting all of the benefit from the other 
investments in the pipeline itself.
    We have underserved and vulnerable populations that--
different languages that do not get--currently get the right 
information and communications. We can't overstate the 
importance of making sure we complete that process so that they 
all benefit from the investments that all of you are willing to 
do.
    Mr. Lucas. Dr. Carr?
    Dr. Carr. Yes, so I'll speak up for the computing because 
as we add more observation capacity, get billions more 
observations from satellites, which are already planned to go 
up, as we increase the sophistication of the models and improve 
data assimilation and have more ensembles and increase our 
resolution, you can't do any of that without having the 
computing power necessary to accomplish it.
    Mr. Lucas. Along that line, Dr. Carr, continuing with you, 
and clearly it's a concern of several of us on this Committee, 
how did the problem develop? Did we just not make the right 
investments at the key moment? How did we get to this point 
where we need to catch up when it comes to computing power 
issues?
    Dr. Carr. Well, that's a complicated issue. I think we've 
always been a little bit behind. And the procurement process 
takes a long time so that by the time you get a new system, 
there's always systems that are already 10 times faster. And 
so--and maybe that is the way it is, but the Department of 
Energy somehow manages to get investments so that they can have 
exascale systems for at least six of their laboratories. And, 
as I said in my testimony, I think we should be more ambitious 
and see if NOAA can become the second place in the country to 
develop exascale computing capacity. I think you just need to 
be ambitious and want it, as well as have the resources.
    Mr. Lucas. And I would note for the record, sometimes our 
questions may seem repetitive, but we as Members tend to hone 
in on the information that you provide us. We're directed 
toward the points you make, and such as the computing issue 
with additional questions, we tend to reinforce where the body 
of this institution needs to go. Your testimony matters more 
than you can possibly imagine on occasions like this.
    With that, I yield back, Madam Chair.
    Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you, Mr. Lucas. And I think we 
have time for another round of questions, so I'll recognize 
myself for five minutes.
    Dr. Carr, you talked about underutilized observations, and 
I wonder if you could go in--a little bit into that. You also 
mentioned sustained versus supplemental funding. And it sounds 
as if--and Dr. Glenn could probably attest to that--a lot of 
the work we've done has been based on the Sandy Supplemental 
and now we have the Ida Supplemental. If you could talk a 
little bit, and then if you want to weigh in, Dr. Glenn, about 
sustained versus supplemental funding, how the supplemental 
funding has impacted your research, but then the problematic 
issues related to not sustained funding. So if you could just 
start with the underutilized observations you were talking 
about, what those are?
    Dr. Carr. Yes. So with respect to--there's two aspects to 
underutilized. One is there's a tremendous amount of surface 
network observations out there, and then a lot of them are not 
government. So there's this big effort under the National 
Mesonet Program, to try to gather together all of the service 
networks that are produced by local and State agencies and 
there's just thousands of them out there. So we're working to 
get----
    Chairwoman Sherrill. So since I just have a quick period of 
time, so you're talking State and local organizations because I 
know Dr. Petty also mentioned other opportunities, but my 
understanding is a lot of the private source of weather 
information is proprietary. And would that be more difficult to 
share with the government?
    Dr. Carr. It could be, but it is being done. And so, in 
fact, the Nation's Lightning Network is totally private, and 
NOAA buys those data. So--and the National Mesonet Program is 
in the process of buying a lot of the surface data because they 
see that it's worthwhile. And then with satellites, as Dr. 
Petty mentioned, there's just so many instruments and so many 
channels producing so much high-resolution data. So every day, 
about--hundreds of millions of observations are produced by 
satellites, maybe billions, but the models will use about 
300,000 of them so--because there's so much that we just have 
to learn how to better use them. And that's what we mean by 
better utilization of satellite data. And as we increase the 
resolution in our models, we'll be able to use more of it. And 
we need to have more sophistication in the data assimilation.
    And I think the other issue was----
    Chairwoman Sherrill. Funding.
    Dr. Carr [continuing]. Funding. Yes, the problem with 
supplementals is that they're great, they buy us new computers, 
but it's impossible to do long-range planning because we just 
don't have the--the annual appropriation is just too little to 
plan for a really ambitious--the really ambitious computer 
power that we need. So it's basically a long-range issue--the 
ability to do long-range planning.
    Chairwoman Sherrill. And Dr. Glenn, if you could talk a 
little bit about--because it sounds like the year leaves too 
little, what the supplemental enables you to do as far as 
weather research.
    Dr. Glenn. I think the Sandy Supplemental was an excellent 
example of how some of these things can get done. The Sandy 
Supplemental replaced damaged infrastructure, 17 HF (high 
frequency) radars that were gone that we use for search and 
rescue every day off the coast. It helped with operations of 
getting our gliders that Ranking Member Bice talked about out 
to sea. But what it also supported was the research that helped 
with the fundamental understanding that started this 10-year 
activity of working with the Hurricane Center and the groups 
like Environmental Modeling Center, that got me here to this 
meeting today. It was through that Sandy Supplemental that that 
research happened. And that research is being put into 
operations now. The problem with the operational support for 
these new activities is that it is also in supplementals. And 
this year, we are in between supplementals so that hurricane 
glider fleet that you were talking about is going to be much 
reduced this year when we expect an overactive hurricane 
season.
    Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you. I yield back. Mrs. Bice, do 
you have any further questions?
    Mrs. Bice. One additional question. Dr. Carr, you are very 
familiar with the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. 
Since its opening in 2006, it has brought together all aspects 
of the weather enterprise, including NOAA researchers, faculty 
from the University of Oklahoma, local forecasters, and the 
Oklahoma Mesonet office. How has this model of having different 
components of the weather enterprise under one roof resulted in 
better research?
    Dr. Carr. Thank you, Ranking Member Bice, for that 
question. Yes, so I obviously was very involved in the planning 
and building of the weather center. And we have about 11 
weather entities in there, including the School of Meteorology, 
with its 300 students and 100 graduate students. And I think 
it's really beneficial for those students to be in the place 
where the weather knowledge is being put into practice in the 
Weather Service Forecast Office. And the building is designed 
so that people can run into each other. The students run into 
people who wrote their textbooks, they run into the 
practitioners, the forecasters, they run into the research. 
They get to have internships and student assistant positions. 
So it's just wonderful for our students because I would imagine 
by the time they're seniors, probably over 75 percent of our 
students have some kind of student employment in one center or 
the other, the Mesonet or the NSSL (National Severe Storms 
Laboratory), and that's just a fantastic thing for our 
students.
    Mrs. Bice. And do you think this is something that we 
should be looking at more collectively as we look to the future 
for weather research, these types of models where you're 
bringing everyone together under one roof?
    Dr. Carr. Well, yes, I think there's a half a dozen other 
universities who are co-located with their National Weather 
Service forecast office. I would certainly encourage more of 
that. And anytime you have a NOAA laboratory--they do have 
these cooperative institutes, and there's quite a few NOAA 
cooperative institutes that are co-located with universities. 
And so that model is working well, so I think we should 
continue to support our cooperative institutes.
    Mrs. Bice. Excellent. Thank you, Madam Chair. I yield back.
    Chairwoman Sherrill. Well, thank you.
    Before we bring the hearing to a close, I want to thank our 
witnesses for testifying before the Committee today. The record 
will remain open for two weeks for additional statements from 
the Members and for any additional questions the Committee may 
ask of the witnesses. The witnesses are excused, and the 
hearing is now adjourned.
    [Whereupon, at 11:08 a.m., the Subcommittee was adjourned.]

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