[House Hearing, 117 Congress]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]
WHAT'S THE FORECAST: A LOOK
AT THE FUTURE OF WEATHER RESEARCH
=======================================================================
HEARING
BEFORE THE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT
OF THE
COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE,
AND TECHNOLOGY
OF THE
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
ONE HUNDRED SEVENTEENTH CONGRESS
SECOND SESSION
__________
JUNE 14, 2022
__________
Serial No. 117-58
__________
Printed for the use of the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology
[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]
Available via the World Wide Web: http://science.house.gov
_________
U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE
47-605 PDF WASHINGTON : 2023
COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY
HON. EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas, Chairwoman
ZOE LOFGREN, California FRANK LUCAS, Oklahoma,
SUZANNE BONAMICI, Oregon Ranking Member
AMI BERA, California MO BROOKS, Alabama
HALEY STEVENS, Michigan, BILL POSEY, Florida
Vice Chair RANDY WEBER, Texas
MIKIE SHERRILL, New Jersey BRIAN BABIN, Texas
JAMAAL BOWMAN, New York ANTHONY GONZALEZ, Ohio
MELANIE A. STANSBURY, New Mexico MICHAEL WALTZ, Florida
BRAD SHERMAN, California JAMES R. BAIRD, Indiana
ED PERLMUTTER, Colorado DANIEL WEBSTER, Florida
JERRY McNERNEY, California MIKE GARCIA, California
PAUL TONKO, New York STEPHANIE I. BICE, Oklahoma
BILL FOSTER, Illinois YOUNG KIM, California
DONALD NORCROSS, New Jersey RANDY FEENSTRA, Iowa
DON BEYER, Virginia JAKE LaTURNER, Kansas
CHARLIE CRIST, Florida CARLOS A. GIMENEZ, Florida
SEAN CASTEN, Illinois JAY OBERNOLTE, California
CONOR LAMB, Pennsylvania PETER MEIJER, Michigan
DEBORAH ROSS, North Carolina JAKE ELLZEY, TEXAS
GWEN MOORE, Wisconsin MIKE CAREY, OHIO
DAN KILDEE, Michigan
SUSAN WILD, Pennsylvania
LIZZIE FLETCHER, Texas
------
Subcommittee on Environment
HON. MIKIE SHERRILL, New Jersey, Chairwoman
SUZANNE BONAMICI, Oregon STEPHANIE I. BICE, Oklahoma,
DAN KILDEE, Michigan Ranking Member
LIZZIE FLETCHER, Texas ANTHONY GONZALEZ, Ohio
CHARLIE CRIST, Florida RANDY FEENSTRA, Iowa
SEAN CASTEN, Illinois CARLOS A. GIMENEZ, Florida
C O N T E N T S
June 14, 2022
Page
Hearing Charter.................................................. 2
Opening Statements
Statement by Representative Mikie Sherrill, Chairwoman,
Subcommittee on Environment, Committee on Science, Space, and
Technology, U.S. House of Representatives...................... 7
Written Statement............................................ 8
Statement by Representative Stephanie I. Bice, Ranking Member,
Subcommittee on Environment, Committee on Science, Space, and
Technology, U.S. House of Representatives...................... 9
Written Statement............................................ 10
Statement by Representative Frank Lucas, Ranking Member,
Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of
Representatives................................................ 11
Written Statement............................................ 12
Written statement by Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson,
Chairwoman, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S.
House of Representatives....................................... 14
Witnesses:
Dr. Scott Glenn, Board of Governors Professor Center for Ocean
Observing Leadership of the Department of Marine and Coastal
Sciences, Rutgers University
Oral Statement............................................... 15
Written Statement............................................ 17
Dr. Bradley Colman, President-Elect of the American
Meteorological Society; Director of Weather-Strategy, Bayer &
The Climate Corporation
Oral Statement............................................... 24
Written Statement............................................ 26
Dr. Fred Carr, Professor Emeritus, School of Meteorology,
University of Oklahoma
Oral Statement............................................... 33
Written Statement............................................ 35
Dr. Kevin R. Petty, VP, Weather and Earth Intelligence, Spire
Global, Inc.
Oral Statement............................................... 47
Written Statement............................................ 49
Discussion....................................................... 55
Appendix: Additional Material for the Record
Letter submitted by Representative Mikie Sherrill, Chairwoman,
Subcommittee on Environment, Committee on Science, Space, and
Technology, U.S. House of Representatives
Michael E. Bryson, Senior Vice President--Operations, PJM.... 66
WHAT'S THE FORECAST: A LOOK
AT THE FUTURE OF WEATHER RESEARCH
----------
TUESDAY, JUNE 14, 2022
House of Representatives,
Subcommittee on Environment,
Committee on Science, Space, and Technology,
Washington, D.C.
The Subcommittee met, pursuant to notice, at 10 a.m., in
room 3218 of the Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Mikie
Sherrill [Chairwoman of the Subcommittee] presiding.
[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]
Chairwoman Sherrill [continuing]. About the conduct of this
hearing. First, Members and staff who are attending in person
may choose to be masked, but it is not a requirement. However,
any individual with symptoms, a positive test, or exposure to
someone with COVID-19 should wear a mask while present.
Members who are attending virtually should keep their video
feed on as long as they are present in the hearing. Members are
responsible for their own microphones. Please also keep your
microphones muted unless you are speaking.
Finally, if Members have documents they wish to submit for
the record, please email them to the Committee Clerk, whose
email address was circulated prior to the hearing.
Good morning. Welcome to today's hearing on the future of
weather research. Before we begin, I would like to take a
moment to extend my sincere condolences to our colleague,
Representative Sean Casten, whose daughter passed away
yesterday. I am deeply sorry for his loss, and my thoughts are
with him and his family during this difficult time.
I'd now like to welcome all of our esteemed witnesses to
today's hearing in person after two years of virtual and hybrid
testimony.
Weather forecasting plays an integral role in society and a
crucial role in protecting lives during extreme weather events.
You may not realize it, but each and every American benefits
from the Federal investment made to support the National
Weather Service (NWS) every day. Whether you are using a
weather app on your phone or watching your local meteorologist
on the evening news, these products and services depend on
Federal weather data. Weather forecasting is consistently
relied on to guide planning across the U.S., whether it's
deciding whether to take an umbrella on a work commute,
planning an outdoor gathering with friends and family, or
determining a seasonal crop plan.
My district has firsthand experience in the devastation
that can be caused from extreme weather. The effects of
Hurricane Sandy are still being felt by my constituents a
decade later. The Hudson Tunnel remains compromised, and a
project to rehabilitate the tunnel began only as recently as
last year. While the Weather Service has significantly improved
the accuracy of the hurricane track forecasts since Hurricane
Sandy, there remains a need to improve intensity forecasts as
well.
I'm looking forward to hearing from Dr. Scott Glenn of
Rutgers University on how funding from the Sandy Supplemental
was critical to his research to better predict and understand
hurricanes and why robust and consistent Federal funding is
necessary to support the transition from weather research to
operations.
When considering the future of forecasting, it is crucial
that long-term forecasting is also part of the conversation.
The Northeast Regional Climate Center reports that over the
past 20 years, New Jersey has had an increase in extreme
precipitation. The report further predicts that precipitation
intensity will continue to increase in my district by up to 50
percent over the next 80 years from what was observed at the
end of the 20th century as a result of climate change. In a
region that has seen the impacts of localized flooding events
cause hard hits to homes and businesses, this report is
alarming.
Just last September, we lost 27 lives across New Jersey in
the wake of Tropical Storm Ida. The sudden intensity and
precise location of rainfall and flooding was difficult to
predict. Emergency responders rescued people from roadways and
homes where they did not expect flooding to impact them. I
heard from a mother in my district who, along with her young
children, had to be rescued from her home at night during
Hurricane Ida. She said that she had been told at 5 p.m. that
the storm would pass to the west. Empowering residents with
accurate long-term and short-term precipitation models will
give them the information they need when planning a move or a
new business location or preparing for an accurate weather
event like--acute weather event like Ida.
Improving our understanding of precipitation trends and
hurricane intensity is not just important for my constituents
but for all Americans. The accuracy of short-term weather
forecasts in the range of a few days to two weeks has improved
significantly in recent decades. However, there remain gaps in
our ability to provide sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts.
Improved longer-term forecasts that are on the order of weeks
to months would support the resiliency of critical
infrastructure sectors like transportation, utility, and energy
sectors that we rely on every day.
To better understand what is needed to improve weather
forecasting, Congress requested a report to identify necessary
weather research investments. The Priorities for Weather
Research, or PWR, pronounced ``power,'' report is a compilation
of expert recommendations from across the U.S. Weather
Enterprise, made up of public, private, and academic partners.
This report highlights the investments needed over the next
decade in weather research, observations, modeling,
forecasting, and dissemination. It takes into consideration how
Federal investment in weather research supports the private and
academic sectors of the weather enterprise. We are fortunate
that our witness panel today includes not only the co-authors
of this report but perspectives from across the Weather
Enterprise.
In the midst of another Atlantic Hurricane season predicted
to have above-normal activity, accurate forecasts coupled with
timely dissemination will be necessary to ensure the safety and
protect the livelihoods of Americans along the Gulf and East
Coasts.
I look forward to hearing more from our witnesses today on
how Congress can support the U.S. Weather Enterprise through
Federal investments in weather research that will benefit all
Americans.
[The prepared statement of Chairwoman Sherrill follows:]
Good morning, and welcome to today's hearing on the future
of weather research. I am especially pleased to welcome all our
esteemed witnesses to today's hearing in person after two years
of virtual and hybrid testimony.
Weather forecasting plays an integral role in society, and
a crucial role in protecting lives during extreme weather
events. You may not realize it, but each and every American
benefits from the federal investments made to support the
National Weather Service every day. Whether you are using a
weather app on your phone, or watching your local meteorologist
on the evening news, these products and services depend on
federal weather data. Weather forecasting is consistently
relied on to guide planning across the US--whether it's
deciding whether to take an umbrella on a work commute,
planning an outdoor gathering with friends and family, or
determining a seasonal crop plan.
My district has first-hand experience in the devastation
that can be caused from extreme weather. The effects of
Hurricane Sandy are still being felt by my constituents a
decade later. The Hudson Tunnel remains compromised, and a
project to rehabilitate the tunnel began only as recently as
last year. While the Weather Service has significantly improved
the accuracy of the hurricane track forecasts since Hurricane
Sandy, there remains a need to improve intensity forecasts as
well. I'm looking forward to hearing from Dr. Scott Glenn of
Rutgers University on how funding from the Sandy Supplemental
was critical to his research to better predict and understand
hurricanes, and why robust and consistent federal funding is
necessary to support the transition from weather research to
operations.
When considering the future of forecasting, it is crucial
that long-term forecasting is also part of the conversation.
The Northeast Regional Climate Center reports that over the
past 20 years, New Jersey has had an increase in extreme
precipitation. The report further predicts that precipitation
intensity will continue to increase in my district by up to 50%
over the next eighty years from what was observed at the end of
the 20th century as a result of climate change. In a region
that has seen the impacts of localized flooding events cause
hard hits to homes and businesses, this report is alarming.
Just last September, we lost 27 lives across New Jersey in the
wake of Tropical Storm Ida. The sudden intensity and precise
location of rainfall and flooding was difficult to predict.
Emergency responders rescued people from roadways and homes
where they did not expect flooding to impact them. I heard from
a mother in my district who, along with her young children, had
to be rescued from her home at night during Hurricane Ida. She
said that she had been told at 5 pm that the storm would pass
to the west. Empowering residents with accurate long-term and
short-term precipitation models will give them the information
they need when planning a move or new business location or
preparing for an acute weather event like Ida.
Improving our understanding of precipitation trends and
hurricane intensity is not just important for my constituents,
but for all Americans. The accuracy of short-term weather
forecasts in the range of a few days to two weeks has improved
significantly in recent decades. However, there remain gaps in
our ability to provide subseasonal to seasonal forecasts.
Improved longer-term forecasts, that are on the order of weeks
to months would support the resiliency of critical
infrastructure sectors, like transportation, utility, and
energy sectors, that we rely on every day.
To better understand what is needed to improve weather
forecasting, Congress requested a report to identify necessary
weather research investments. The Priorities for Weather
Research, or PWR, report is a compilation of expert
recommendations from across the U.S. Weather Enterprise, made
up of public, private, and academic partners. This report
highlights the investments needed over the next decade in
weather research, observations, modeling, forecasting, and
dissemination. It takes into consideration how federal
investment in weather research supports the private and
academic sectors of the Weather Enterprise. We are fortunate
that our witness panel today includes not only the co-leads of
this report, but perspectives from across the Weather
Enterprise.
In the midst of another Atlantic Hurricane season predicted
to have above normal activity, accurate forecasts coupled with
timely dissemination will be necessary to ensure the safety,
and protect the livelihoods, of Americans along the Gulf and
East Coasts. I look forward to hearing more from our witnesses
today on how Congress can support the U.S. Weather Enterprise
through federal investments in weather research that will
benefit all Americans.
Chairwoman Sherrill. The Chair now recognizes Ranking
Member Bice for an opening statement.
Mrs. Bice. Thank you, Chairwoman Sherrill, and thank you to
our entire panel of witnesses for taking the time to share your
expertise with us this morning.
Weather information does more than just help us decide how
many layers to wear or whether to bring an umbrella. Forecasts
based on accurate information are our No. 1 tool in protecting
the life and property during severe weather events. That's
extremely important because the United States experiences more
extreme weather events than any other country. According to the
National Weather Service, a typical year in the United States
sees 26,000 thunderstorms, a few of which I see in my community
weekly, 5,000 floods, 1,300 tornadoes, and six Atlantic basin
hurricanes.
Luckily, academia, government, and industry have come
together in collaboration to improve the timely delivery and
overall accuracy of weather products and services. Collectively
known as the U.S. Weather Enterprise, each sector--public,
private, and academic--plays a critical role in understanding,
observing, forecasting, and helping warn communities of danger.
The largest improvement to weather forecasting can be
directly attributed to both basic and applied research.
Collaboration across the weather enterprise is critical to
conducting this research and translating it so it can be
successfully deployed on a commercial scale. For example,
atmospheric data collected from a satellite needs unique
computer modeling and processing power to be useful. And the
final forecast or output product must integrate behavioral and
social science to make sure people fully understand it and its
impact. No one sector can develop or do all of this on their
own. That's why transitioning research into operations requires
buy-in and collaboration from everyone. It cannot be a
competition amongst ourselves.
To aid in our forecasting goals, there are countless
emerging technologies that can and should be deployed.
Automated surface vehicles and gliders in the ocean, drones in
the sky, and advanced radar systems on the ground all have the
potential to collect data that can supplement current Federal
efforts. Pursuing this research and subsequent
commercialization will be invaluable to the United States and
our communities. First, it will help us catch up to the
European Union, which continues to outperform us with more
accurate forecasting models.
Second, it will support economic growth. Essential pillars
of our economy are dependent on knowing what the weather will
be. For example, we need solar and wind data for renewable
energy production; precipitation information for ag production;
water management analysis for urban communities; and accurate
predictions for road, marine, and aviation transportation.
These are all areas of increased investment, and all of them
require forecasts for safe and efficient operation.
I can't think of a better panel to address this critical
topic. We have representatives from academia, the private
sector, and professional societies. I want to especially extend
my warmest welcome to Dr. Fred Carr, a fellow Oklahoman and
Professor Emeritus at the University of Oklahoma (OU) with the
newly minted women's national championship softball team.
Although I am an Oklahoma State fan myself, I will admit OU is
widely recognized as a national leader in meteorology and has
made vital contributions in this field. In fact, the entire
State of Oklahoma has long been viewed as the center of weather
advancement in the United States, and I look forward to hearing
how the National Weather Center in Norman is continuing to lead
critical research and development.
Again, I want to thank the witnesses for being here today,
and I look forward to your testimony. With that, I turn the
chair back over to Chairwoman Sherrill.
[The prepared statement of Mrs. Bice follows:]
Thank you, Chairwoman Sherrill, and thank you to our entire
panel of witnesses for taking the time to share their expertise
with us this morning.
Weather information does more than help us decide how many
layers to wear or if we need to carry an umbrella. Forecasts
based on accurate information are our number one tool in
protecting of life and property during severe weather events.
That's extremely important because the United States
experiences more extreme weather events than any other country.
According to the National Weather Service, a typical year in
the U.S. sees 26,000 thunderstorms, 5,000 floods, 1,300
tornadoes, and six Atlantic basin hurricanes.
Luckily academia, government, and industry have come
together in collaboration to improve the timely delivery and
overall accuracy of weather products and services.
Collectively known as the U.S. Weather Enterprise, each
sector--public, private, and academic--plays a critical role in
understanding, observing, forecasting, and helping warn
communities of danger.
The largest improvement to weather forecasting can be
directly attributed to both basic and applied research.
Collaboration across the weather enterprise is critical to
conducting this research and translating it so it can be
successfully deployed on a commercial scale.
For example, atmospheric data collected from a satellite
needs unique computer modeling and processing power to be
useful. And the final forecast or output product must integrate
behavioral and social science to make sure people fully
understand it and the impact.
No one sector can develop and do all of this on their own.
That is why transitioning research into operations requires buy
in and collaboration from everyone. It cannot be a competition
among ourselves.
To aid in our forecasting goals, there are countless
emerging technologies that can and should be deployed.
Automated surface vehicles and gliders in the ocean, drones in
the sky, and advanced radar systems on the ground all have the
potential to collect data that can supplement current federal
efforts.
Pursuing this research and subsequent commercialization
will be invaluable to the United States and our communities.
First, it will help us catch up to the European Union,
which continues to outperform us with more accurate forecasting
models.
Second, it will support our economic growth. Essential
pillars of our economy are dependent on knowing what the
weather will be.
For example, we need solar and wind data for renewable
energy production; precipitation information for agricultural
production; water management analysis for urban communities;
and accurate predictions for road, marine and aviation
transportation.
These are all areas of increased investment, and all of
them require forecasts for safe and efficient operation.
I can't think of a better panel to address this critical
topic. We have representatives from academia, the private
sector, and professional societies.
I especially want to extend my warmest welcome to Dr. Fred
Carr, a fellow Oklahoman and Professor Emeritus at the
University of Oklahoma.
Although I'm an Oklahoma State Poke myself, I'll admit OU
is widely recognized as a national leader in meteorology and
has made vital contributions in this field.
In fact, the entire state of Oklahoma has long been viewed
as the center of weather advancement in the U.S. and I look
forward to hearing how the National Weather Center in Norman is
continuing to lead critical research and development.
Again, I want to thank our witnesses for being here today
and I look forward to each of your testimony. Thank you,
Chairwoman Sherrill, I yield back the balance of my time.
Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you. And we are honored to have
the Full Committee Ranking Member Mr. Lucas with us today. The
Chair now recognizes Ranking--the Ranking Member for an opening
statement.
Mr. Lucas. Thank you for holding today's hearing on this
important topic, Chairwoman Sherrill.
Since I became the Ranking Member of this Committee, I have
time and again stated that the work we do on weather
forecasting is as important as any topic before us. Protecting
life and property, helping first responders anticipate maximum
weather events, or ensuring that farmers and ranchers know when
to best plant crops are only a few of the reasons having
accurate weather forecasts is invaluable. And we can only have
accurate weather forecasts if we continue to invest in
resources in researching weather patterns.
The Ranking Member of the Subcommittee and I are both
honored to represent Oklahoma, home to some of the most
important weather research occurring today. The National
Weather Center, located in Norman, brings together NOAA
(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) researchers,
the University of Oklahoma faculty, and local weather
forecasters under one roof. This collaboration is an important
model for how NOAA research should operate.
Additionally, Oklahoma is home to the Nation's premier
mesonet, which provides real-time data thanks to a series of
small but powerful monitoring stations across the State. The
mesonet has been a valuable resource for farmers, ranchers,
first responders, and weather forecasters for more than 25
years, and I believe our mesonet should serve as a model for
other weather observation systems across the country.
It is with this background that I am proud to sponsor the
Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act, more commonly
known as the Weather Act. This legislation, signed into law by
President Trump in April 2017, was the most significant
weather-related legislation to become law in 25 years. This
legislation helped redefine NOAA's weather research priorities
in recent years and also helped spur innovation by creating a
pilot program which directed the utilization of commercially
purchased data in NOAA's weather models.
The Weather Act is due for reauthorization at the end of
September 2023. Though that is more than a year away, I
consider today's hearing to be a kickoff in our reauthorization
process and encourage our witnesses to frame their
recommendations with this in mind.
In December of 2020, Congress directed NOAA's Science
Advisory Board to commission a report on future priorities in
weather research. This report, completed in December 2021,
utilized some of the finest minds across the weather
enterprise. This report contains many recommendations, ranging
from improving Earth-system modeling to increasing NOAA's
computing capacity. These recommendations should inform how we
approach reauthorizing the Weather Act.
Today's hearing is important because it provides a starting
point for us in discussions about what areas where we have
improved our knowledge of weather research, as well as gaps we
need to address in the future.
I want to thank the witnesses for sharing their expertise,
and I look forward to a very productive discussion.
And before I yield back, just a personal moment to share my
sincere feelings with the Chairman about the loss of one of our
colleagues. Nothing can hurt more. And with that, I yield back,
Madam Chair.
Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you so much, Mr. Lucas.
[The prepared statement of Mr. Lucas follows:]
Thank you for holding today's hearing on this important
topic, Chairwoman Sherrill.
Since I became the ranking member of this committee, I have
time and again stated that the work we do on weather
forecasting is as important as any topic before us.
Protecting life and property, helping first responders
anticipate extreme weather events, or ensuring that farmers and
ranchers know when best to plant crops are only a few of the
reasons having accurate weather forecasts is invaluable. And we
can only have accurate weather forecasts if we continue to
invest resources in researching weather patterns.
The ranking member of the subcommittee and I are both
honored to represent Oklahoma, home to some of the most
important weather research occurring today. The National
Weather Center, located in Norman, brings together NOAA
researchers, University of Oklahoma faculty, and local weather
forecasters under one roof. This collaboration is an important
model for how NOAA research should operate.
Additionally, Oklahoma is home to the nation's premier
Mesonet, which provides real- time data thanks to a series of
small, but powerful monitoring states across the state. The
Mesonet has been a valuable resource for farmers, ranchers,
first responders and weather forecasters, for more than 25
years, and I believe our Mesonet should serve as a model for
other local weather observation systems across the country.
It is with this background that I was proud to sponsor the
Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act, more commonly
known as the Weather Act. This legislation, signed into law by
President Trump in April of 2017, was the most significant
weather- related legislation to become law in 25 years. This
legislation helped redefine NOAA's weather research priorities
in recent years and also helped spur innovation by creating a
pilot program which directed the utilization of commercially
purchased data in NOAA's weather models.
The Weather Act is due for reauthorization at the end of
September 2023. Though that is more than a year away, I
consider today's hearing to be the kickoff in our
reauthorization process and encourage our witnesses to frame
their recommendations with this in mind.
In December 2020, Congress directed NOAA's Science Advisory
Board to commission a report on future priorities in weather
research. This report, completed in December 2021, utilized
some of the finest minds across the weather enterprise. This
report contains many recommendations, ranging from improving
Earth-system modeling to increasing NOAA's computing capacity.
These recommendations should inform how we approach
reauthorizing the Weather Act.
Today's hearing is important because it provides a starting
point for us in discussions about areas where we have improved
our knowledge of weather research as well as gaps we need to
address in the future.
I thank our witnesses for sharing their expertise with us
and I look forward to a productive discussion. Thank you and I
yield back.
Chairwoman Sherrill. At this time, I'd like to introduce
our witnesses. I'm pleased to introduce a fellow New Jerseyan
Dr. Scott Glenn as our first witness. Dr. Glenn is a Board of
Governors Professor of Marine and Coastal Sciences and Co-
Director of the Center for Ocean Observing Leadership at
Rutgers University. Dr. Glenn's research has focused on the
development of remote and autonomous technologies for ocean
observing in extreme environments, the modeling of coupled
ocean atmosphere systems, and improving the forecasting of
hurricanes. Dr. Glenn is one of the NOAA SAB (Science Advisory
Board) PWR report co-leads.
Our next witness is Dr. Brad Colman. Dr. Colman is the
Director of Weather Strategy for the Bayer Climate LLC, and
President-Elect of the American Meteorological Society (AMS).
At Bayer, he coordinates across multiple divisions to set
weather priorities and works with scientists, engineers, and
vendors to deliver critical environmental information across
Bayer's global agriculture industry. Prior to joining the
private sector, Dr. Colman had a nearly four-decade-long career
with NOAA, ranging from a forecaster to NOAA NWS Lab Director.
Dr. Colman is also one of the NOAA SAB PWR report co-leads.
Our next witness today is Dr. Frederick Carr. Dr. Carr is
currently the McCasland Foundation Presidential Professor
Emeritus and Director Emeritus in the School of Meteorology at
the University of Oklahoma. His research interests include
numerical weather prediction, data assimilation, synoptic
mesoscale and tropical meteorology, and use of new observing
systems. Among his wide variety of professional activities, Dr.
Carr was the President of the American Meteorological Society
in 2016, served on the AMS's Executive Committee from 2015 to
2019, and is a Fellow of the AMS in addition to currently
chairing its Committee on Ethics.
Our final witness is Dr. Kevin Petty. Dr. Petty is the Vice
President of Weather and Earth Intelligence at Spire. Dr. Petty
oversees science and engineering associated with the delivery
of weather-related products and solutions, as well as the
development of new observations that support our understanding
of the planet. Before joining Spire, Dr. Petty was the Director
of Science and Weather--and forecast operations at The Weather
Company, an IBM Business. He has also worked as a Project
Scientist and Scientific Program Manager with the National
Center for Atmospheric Research, and Senior Meteorologist for
the National Transportation Safety Board.
If there are Members who wish to submit additional opening
statements, your statements will be added to the record at this
point.
[The prepared statement of Chairwoman Johnson follows:]
Good morning, everyone. I want to thank Chairwoman Sherrill
for holding today's hearing on a very important topic: the
future of weather research. I also want to welcome our
witnesses and I look forward to your testimony.
The U.S. Weather Enterprise-the public sector, the private
sector, and academia-have made considerable strides in
improving forecasts over the past few decades. However, we must
not become complacent and assume this progress is enough-it is
not.
As many of you know, high-temperature records are being
shattered across the southern U.S. Last Saturday, temperatures
in my district and the surrounding areas in the DFW Metroplex
exceeded 100 degrees Fahrenheit for the first time in 2022. The
last time we exceeded 100 degrees this early in the year was
2010.
We have often discussed in this Committee how climate
change is leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather
events.
From 2017 to 2021, the cumulative cost of billion-dollar or
greater weather and climate disasters was nearly three-quarters
of a trillion dollars. And last year alone, there were twenty
major disasters resulting in approximately 145 billion dollars
of damages. These damages, and the human toll, would have been
would far greater if we hadn't previously invested in weather
research.
It is essential that we have the necessary resources and
capabilities to accurately predict these weather events, as
well as to prepare our communities for them.
In order to better understand what is needed to support
American excellence in weather forecasting, we turned to the
experts.
In 2019, Congress charged NOAA's Science Advisory Board
(SAB) to assess the needs for weather research. Specifically,
the SAB was charged with identifying the Federal investments in
weather research and forecasting needed over the next decade.
As a result, NOAA's SAB produced the Priorities of Weather
Research report in December of 2021.
We are fortunate to have four experts in weather research
testifying this morning, which includes the NOAA SAB report's
co-leads. This report could not be better timed. In 2022, we
have to shift the paradigm around weather forecasting in the
U.S.
We must make decisions about forecasting improvements with
the needs of the most vulnerable communities at the forefront,
and not as an afterthought. This will require robust and
consistent funding from Congress. This Committee will have a
key legislative and oversight role to play.
Today's hearing is a continuation of this Committee's work
to discuss topics pertinent to improving U.S. weather
forecasting.
The major themes in this report align with topics we have
often discussed on this Committee. The case has been made many
times over for the need to improve weather forecasting in the
U.S.
What is left for Congress to do is provide clear direction,
and commensurate funding, to support weather research
improvements. We cannot afford to underinvest in weather
research. The time to act is now.
I am looking forward to hearing from our esteemed panel of
witnesses what the Federal government must prioritize in
weather research. I hope today's hearing will serve as a
roadmap for the future of NOAA's National Weather Service and
the Weather Enterprise. With that, I yield back.
Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you to all of our witnesses for
joining us today.
And at this point, we will begin our first round of
questions. I'll now recognize myself for five minutes. Oh,
sorry. So I'm going to recognize the witnesses in the order I
introduced them. As you recall, you each have five minutes for
your opening statements.
So we'll start with Dr. Glenn.
TESTIMONY OF DR. SCOTT GLENN,
BOARD OF GOVERNORS PROFESSOR CENTER
FOR OCEAN OBSERVING LEADERSHIP
OF THE DEPARTMENT OF MARINE
AND COASTAL SCIENCES, RUTGERS UNIVERSITY
Dr. Glenn. Chairwoman Sherrill, Ranking Member Bice,
Ranking Member Lucas, Members of the Subcommittee, I sincerely
thank you all for the opportunity to speak today on the future
of weather research and forecasting for our Nation. My name is
Scott Glenn. I'm a Professor at Rutgers, the State University
of New Jersey. And I'm--I was one of the co-leads for the NOAA
Science Advisory Board report on the Priorities for Weather
Research, often referred to as the PWR report. The views that
I'm sharing today are my own and not those of Rutgers or NOAA.
The PWR report was produced by over 150 subject matter
experts from across the weather enterprise. Through a consensus
approach, experts from multiple sectors and disciplines came
together to provide policymakers the information necessary to
prioritize Federal investments in weather research and
forecasting over the next decade.
PWR is an urgent call to action. That urgency is driven by
the increasing frequency of extreme weather events that cause
hundreds of deaths and hundreds of billions of dollars of
damage each year. It is driven by the need to develop a vibrant
economy that leverages weather information into competitive
advantages, and it is driven by the need to support equity and
environmental justice across our Nation.
The PWR report responds by documenting priority investments
across the three pillars of the weather enterprise:
observations and data assimilation, forecasting, and
information delivery.
These pillars are built on the strong foundational elements
of the weather enterprise itself, the people trained through
work force development, the high-performance computing (HPC)
for operations and research, and the world's best science.
Taken together, the pillars and their foundational elements
support our shared goal of a weather-ready nation.
The results of the PWR study are 11 priority areas for
investment, 33 recommendations and envisioned outcomes, and 102
specific critical actions to achieve these goals. Acting on
these recommendations will be transformational for NOAA, the
weather enterprise, and the people we serve.
To illustrate how this broad range of recommendations work
together to support specific needs, PWR produced five narrative
themes. One of those themes is high-impact weather. One example
within this theme, the example I've studied my entire career,
is hurricanes. Hurricanes are among the most destructive
weather events on Earth. Since 1980, hurricanes have caused
over $1 trillion in damage in the United States, more than all
other weather and climate billion-dollar disasters combined.
In my home State of New Jersey, over 80 percent of the
billion-dollar disaster damage was caused by hurricanes. Having
lived through the intense winds and flooding caused by
Hurricanes Floyd, Irene, Sandy, Isaias, and Ida, I personally
know the value of the good forecasts from our trusted National
Hurricane Center.
Through disaster supplemental appropriations provided by
Congress that support hurricane observations and research, our
science community has also learned what we can do to help make
forecasts even better. Our team has pioneered new technologies
for ocean observing in extreme conditions. We have used those
technologies to develop a fundamentally new understanding of
how the atmosphere and ocean are coupled and can rapidly co-
evolve as hurricanes approach my home State. And we have helped
transition both observation and modeling improvements into
operational systems for NOAA, the Coast Guard and the Navy.
Fundamental to those advances is continuing NOAA's
transition to an Earth system modeling approach. This will
require observations of the atmosphere and the ocean below. It
will require high-performance computing for operations and
research. And it will require collaboration that crosses line
offices and sectors. All of the investment categories and
approaches are outlined in the PWR report.
As one specific example, hurricane forecasting in the
United States has long benefited from Federal investments in
the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program. However, success is
currently being limited, not by vision, but by support. In my
written testimony I've outlined three ways hurricane forecast
improvements are being limited and what can be done about it.
In conclusion, PWR provides a framework for transformation.
Trends in extreme weather events lend urgency. I urge this
Committee and Congress to act upon the recommendations outlined
the PWR report so that together we can build and are able to
serve the needs of our Nation. Thank you.
[The prepared statement of Dr. Glenn follows:]
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Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you, Dr. Glenn. Next, I
recognize Dr. Colman for five minutes.
TESTIMONY OF DR. BRADLEY COLMAN, PRESIDENT-ELECT
OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY;
DIRECTOR OF WEATHER-STRATEGY,
BAYER & THE CLIMATE CORPORATION
Dr. Colman. Good morning. Chairwoman Sherrill, Ranking
Member Bice, Committee Ranking Member Lucas and Members of the
Subcommittee, thank you for this hearing and for inviting me to
speak with you today about the future of weather research and
forecasting. My name is Brad Colman. I'm currently the Director
of Weather Strategy for Bayer's Climate Corporation, President-
Elect of the American Meteorological Society, and co-lead with
Dr. Glenn on the PWR report. The views I am sharing are my own
and not those of Bayer or NOAA.
I want to thank the Subcommittee for your support of the
Weather Act and the NIDIS Reauthorization Act. These acts have
been highly impactful and provide critical groundwork for many
of the PWR report priorities.
My testimony is based on four decades with NOAA, followed
by nearly a decade in private industry. I worked across
multiple levels at NOAA from Forecaster to Lab Director. At
Bayer, we, like many other businesses, leverage NOAA's array of
products, which supplement our own data and in-house expertise
to serve our leading global agricultural business. I have seen
NOAA's impact from the inside and out, and I have complementing
perspectives of both its past and its potential future value.
Today, we face sobering weather-related statistics. The
Nation is suffering from increasing billion-dollar disasters
and the loss of hundreds of Americans annually, all despite
continually improving forecasts and warnings. Five-day
forecasts are as good or better than 3-day forecasts were at
the turn of the century. Forecast skill is now extending into
the second week. Hurricane track forecasts at day 5 are now as
good as a 2-day forecast was just in 1990. The benefits to the
public, transportation, and private industry are remarkable.
These gains were not achieved through singular investments,
major breakthroughs, or by a single sector of the weather
enterprise. Federal investments have been instrumental
including the 88D radar network, next-generation satellites,
and the National Weather Service's Weather-Ready Nation
program. The academic and private sectors have made equally
critical contributions. If done correctly, with planning and
coordination across all sectors, the weather enterprise can
extend this proven track record well beyond the next decade.
I now want to discuss a core section of the report,
critical first steps. This section lists 10 actions essential
to the success of any comprehensive Federal investment plan.
They are a subset of all recommendations in the report and fall
into one of four areas: research and development,
infrastructure, actions and impacts, and NOAA prioritization
and investment.
The first area, research and development, includes Earth
system modeling, data assimilation, and social and behavioral
sciences. As forecasting skill has increased, a significant gap
has grown between weather information produced and known by
forecasters and what is understood and acted upon by public and
emergency management communities. Addressing this gap is
especially critical for historically underserved and socially
vulnerable populations. Investments in this area need to be
significantly increased in order to achieve the full benefit
from other investments in the weather information pipeline.
I do not have time to speak to the area of infrastructure,
which includes data assimilation, high-performance computing,
and Earth system observing networks.
The actions and impacts area includes reanalysis and
reforecasting, high-impact weather and water cycle extremes.
Reanalysis and reforecasting in support of operational
numerical model development is critical and it needs immediate
attention at NOAA. In fact, the launch of their first Earth
system model scheduled for 2026 cannot be successfully
implemented without this gap being addressed.
The final area is NOAA prioritization and investment. At
times, NOAA has struggled to align internal priorities and
partner with external groups. This has likely reduced their
overall impact. As such, increased Federal investments in NOAA
National Weather Service programs would greatly benefit from
NOAA having improved methods to assess, balance, and align
these investments. Additionally, NOAA stands to benefit by
increased partnerships with a broader weather enterprise. A
strong private industry can provide value in the form of
otherwise unavailable data, products, and services to Federal
agencies that in turn accelerate the overall research and
innovation through partnerships, including with the academic
sector. Successes in this area are wins for the weather
enterprise and wins for the Nation.
In closing, this is a critical time. Our Nation is
increasingly challenged by weather extremes and climate change
impacts. The benefits of executing a successful PWR plan would
be transformational. Together, we need to build off past
successes, learn from past challenges, and work together toward
a better prepared weather-ready nation.
Thank you, and I look forward to your questions.
[The prepared statement of Dr. Colman follows:]
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Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you, Dr. Colman.
I now recognize Dr. Carr for five minutes.
TESTIMONY OF DR. FRED CARR, PROFESSOR EMERITUS,
SCHOOL OF METEOROLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA
Dr. Carr. Thank you. Good morning. Chairwoman Sherrill,
Ranking Member Bice, Science Committee Ranking Member Lucas,
Subcommittee Members, it is an honor for me to testify about
the future of weather research and forecasting for our Nation.
My name is Frederick Carr from the University of Oklahoma, and
I speak to you today as one who has spent over 40 years either
working to improve computer-based weather prediction models or
advising NOAA leaders on how to improve U.S. weather prediction
capabilities.
While National Weather Service forecasts are of high
quality and provide great economic value, these forecasts are
not world-best. Other global weather modeling centers produce
greater forecast accuracy than we do. This gap shows that
improved forecasts are possible and thus represents an
opportunity for NOAA to serve the Nation even better than it
does now.
How do we achieve this improved skill? The good news is
that we can improve forecasts of all high-impact weather
phenomena--hurricanes, wildfires, flash flooding, severe
storms, tornadoes, blizzards, heat and cold waves, droughts--by
investments in three things: A, increased observations of the
Earth system; B, development of Earth system models; and C,
high-performance computing. Investments balanced across all
three areas will enhance the skill of future forecast models,
improve the guidance provided to weather forecasters, and lead
to greater public safety and protection of the Nation's
infrastructure.
Let's expand upon the needed investments, A, observations.
First, we need to maximize use of underutilized observations to
realize the benefits of investments already made. Second, we
need to add observational capacity to increase the detail and
accuracy of Earth system measurements. For B, Earth system
model, an Earth system model is a sophisticated forecast system
that includes not only the atmosphere but the ocean, land
surface, ice, air pollution, et cetera. The Earth system model
is projected forward in time by supercomputers to produce
weather forecasts and seasonal outlooks. Thus, we advocate that
current models need to upgrade to Earth system models to enable
more accurate forecasts on all timescales.
Here are some of the investments needed here. One,
accelerate development of Earth system models by supporting
research on the physical interactions among all its various
components.
Two, use of Earth system models cannot be done without
first determining the biases and errors in these models. This
process must be done for all forecast systems.
Three, develop improved storm scale models to forecast
hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, wildfire
evolution, and storm surge.
And four, continue to invest in the Earth Prediction
Innovation Center, or EPIC, to incentivize and support external
partners to conduct research to improve NOAA's weather forecast
systems.
And C, high-performance computing. None of the increases in
weather forecast skill over the past 50 years would have been
possible without high-performance computing, or HPC. The
weather community thanks Congress for recent HPC allocations,
but there are still three problems. One, the allocations are
often done via supplements and not via a sustained annual
investment.
Two, research HPC capacity lags operational HPC, whereas it
should be at least three times greater.
And three, U.S. HPC is still behind other global weather
prediction centers. Thus, the following investments are needed
in this area:
One, expand HPC capacity by two orders of magnitude or 100
times over the next 10 years.
Two, concomitant investments in storage, transmission,
access, security, and software engineering must also be made.
And three, NOAA must prepare for future HPC architectures,
develop a culture of rapid adaptation, and train a skilled work
force.
Finally, I note that six Department of Energy labs have
already acquired or soon will acquire exascale computing
systems, each of which is 25 to 50 times more powerful than all
of NOAA's computer systems combined. Why can't NOAA get some of
this exascale action? Thus, we encourage Congress and NOAA to
be more ambitious in enhancing HPC capacity in order to better
serve the American public. Thank you.
[The prepared statement of Dr. Carr follows:]
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Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you, Dr. Carr. Next, I recognize
Dr. Petty for five minutes.
TESTIMONY OF DR. KEVIN R. PETTY, VP,
WEATHER AND EARTH INTELLIGENCE, SPIRE GLOBAL, INC.
Dr. Petty. Chairwoman Sherrill, Ranking Member Bice, and
Ranking Member Lucas, as well as the rest of the Members of the
Subcommittee on Environment, thank you for allowing me the
opportunity to speak with you about what is a very important
topic for our Nation, priorities for weather research and
forecasting.
As part of my comments, I would like to share some high-
level thoughts and perspectives on the Priorities for Weather
Research report. I would also like to highlight the role of the
private sector in achieving the desired outcomes of the report.
However, first, I would like to convey why this topic is so
important to me. I have essentially spent my entire career
working in the weather enterprise. I have held positions in the
public, private, and academic sectors. During this time, I've
endeavored to promote and contribute to research and
development efforts that result in significant improvements in
weather analysis and forecasting.
However, on December 30, 2021, this endeavor became quite
personal. On that day, Colorado saw its most destructive
wildfire in history, the Marshall Fire. The Marshall Fire,
which was exacerbated by high winds and dry conditions, burned
roughly 6,000 acres, destroyed over 1,000 homes and structures,
and damaged nearly another 180, one of which was my home. We
watched as entire neighborhoods burned to the ground in
minutes. And to this day, my family remains displaced. Although
we have made great strides in weather research and forecasting
over the last several decades, there is still much to be done
if we're going to prevent billion-dollar disasters such as this
one.
The Priorities for Weather Research report is a timely
exemplary document that identifies and recommends investments
designed to foster new and improved capabilities that can serve
to reduce the number and severity of high-impact events such as
the Marshall Fire. The report rightly expresses the fact that
the scope of the investments necessary to support the
advancement of weather for society is vast. Thus, it will be
difficult for NOAA to make the material investments across all
of the identified priority areas. Where it makes sense, NOAA
should attempt to partner not only with the academic sector,
but it should also make use of the competencies and resources
found in the private sector. As the private sector has grown,
so has its ability to carry out rigorous, high-quality research
and development.
For example, Spire made significant investments that led to
the successful deployment of one of the world's largest
multipurpose satellite constellations with over 100 satellites
operationally in orbit today. This constellation delivers a
rich and unique set of data about the atmosphere and Earth.
Spire is proud to be a Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador, and
it's honored to be a supplier of radio occultation data to NOAA
through the Commercial Data Program. None of this would have
been possible without Spire's willingness to invest in science
and technology research.
NOAA is and will remain a cornerstone of the weather
enterprise. It serves as a catalyst in driving research and
forecast investments to mitigate the impacts of weather, water,
and climate extremes. It is crucial that NOAA's investments are
strategic, particularly from the perspective of ensuring that
our Nation is a global leader in weather prediction.
Fundamentally, it is forecast accuracy and reliability that
drive the effectiveness of downstream weather-related products,
services, and solutions, including many offerings found in the
private sector. NOAA should recognize and carefully consider
its limitations and formulate a research and development
investment strategy that includes clear tradeoffs.
As part of its efforts, NOAA would benefit from identifying
and acknowledging the investments and contributions being made
by others in the weather enterprise. It should not run the risk
of replicating such investments, nor should it risk diluting
its investments to the point that tangible and sustained
progress in key areas is limited or negated, especially for
core areas associated with forecast accuracy and reliability.
This will require strong leadership and an organizational
culture that embraces a more well-defined and focused approach.
Most importantly, NOAA's ability to effectively respond to
the recommendations found in the report is rooted in its
ability to create strong, long-lasting partnerships. By doing
so, our great Nation will be able to recognize the full power
and extent of the weather enterprise and what it has to offer.
Thank you for this opportunity to share this testimony. I
hope you found it helpful. And I welcome any questions or
comments you may have.
[The prepared statement of Dr. Petty follows:]
[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]
Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you, Dr. Petty.
So at this point, we will begin our first round of
questions, and I recognize myself for five minutes.
Unfortunately, New Jersey is no stranger to catastrophic
flooding events, as demonstrated recently by Hurricane Ida.
However, large-scale events are not the only weather concern in
my district. As I mentioned in my opening statement, the
Northeast Regional Climate Center predicts that by the end of
this century, precipitation will increase by as much as 50
percent. These changes in precipitation area flooding are
already being felt by the residents in my district.
And I recently introduced the PRECIP Act, which passed in
the House, and will direct NOAA to update out-of-date
precipitation data that can be utilized for decisionmaking in
extreme weather events such as hurricanes, as well as for more
long-term decisions, such as buying a home in a flood zone.
NOAA's Precipitation Grand Challenge aligns with this goal.
Among other targets, it aims to update weather models to
provide timely and accurate forecasts that can be utilized by
citizens to make crucial decisions.
Dr. Colman, as a Member of NOAA's Science Advisory Board,
you have experience with their weather modeling framework. How
will investments into NOAA's weather research assist the agency
in their work to update precipitation data and meet this grand
challenge? What work do you needs to be done in collaborating
with other members of the weather enterprise to ensure that
this data meets end users in a timely and accessible way?
Dr. Colman. Thank you, Chairwoman Sherrill, for the
question. It's a complicated answer in my mind. The return
frequency of events and the shift in probabilities of events,
as we move through this period of climate change, are difficult
to measure and ultimately require a collaboration across many
different entities and sectors. Certainly, as we move into the
next generation of models, as Dr. Carr presented about Earth
system modeling, one aspect is the reanalysis and reforecasting
piece, which I mentioned and emphasized how critical it is to
successfully develop these new models. This work will give us
insights into the distribution of events and the evolution of
events as we move forward. So investing in the model and
associated infrastructure is primary, but it goes into
statistical analyses as well, and how you do the analyses to
attribute different events to different causes.
Yes, maybe I'll stop there.
Chairwoman Sherrill. Well, thank you, Dr. Colman.
And, Dr. Glenn, as a New Jersey resident, you are familiar
with the devastation that hurricanes like Sandy, and more
recently, Ida caused New Jersey due to extreme precipitation.
How would advancing research related to the total water level
support improvements to weather forecasting overall? How would
the updates to probable maximum precipitation and Atlas 14
estimates like what is included in PRECIP--in my PRECIP and the
FLOODS Act relate to this work?
Dr. Glenn. Thank you, Chairwoman Sherrill. Total water
level is the critical piece of this because we see with
hurricanes and storms, they're traveling slower, there's more
rain involved with them, with the warming ocean, there's more
moisture in the atmosphere. And so improving all these models
is one of the very important pieces of this. That improvement
over and over again, you'll see through the PWR report, comes
through several levels. One is the observations that are made
there to improve our understanding of the processes.
Precipitation is a very hard process to forecast. It's like
hurricane intensity. These are the two important pieces that--
the two critical pieces. How do we get the hurricane intensity
right? How do we get the quantitative precipitation right?
That's why there's those grand challenges.
So critical pieces of that, especially for a place like New
Jersey, whereas we look at the climate projections and we see
that storms are going to be more slower moving, there's going
to be more heavy rainfall, there's going to be stronger winds.
So the stronger winds will produce more storm surge, the
heavier rains will produce more flooding from the rivers, and
so the combination of New Jersey being in the middle of that,
you know, ocean water coming from the ocean side, the river
water coming from the other side, so it's a very important
piece to get the total water level right. In Sandy, there was
so much of this discussion to figure out how much was from the
ocean and how much was from the rivers. Thank you.
Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you and I'll--very quickly
because I just have a few minutes. A lot of States are
undertaking their own research initiatives such as New Jersey's
DEP (Department of Environmental Protection). So, Dr. Glenn,
can you comment on how regional climate modeling like the
efforts of New Jersey can help communities and businesses
prepare and adapt to the extreme weather impacts of climate
change?
Dr. Glenn. Sure, thank you, Chairwoman Sherrill. The
regional models that we are, you know, considering for the for
the New Jersey area, they're--the critical piece here is that,
you know, the sea level is rising for many reasons. In our
area, we have the subsidence of the land, which is also very
important, and plus that rise that just changes the baseline.
And so that's very important for our area. The changes in the
rainfall are very important. And the changes in the storm
frequency are very important. So you consider those three
pieces adding up together is an important part of this.
Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you, Dr. Glenn. And, sorry, I
kind of cheated. I got you right at the end. And you didn't
have as much time----
Dr. Glenn. It's OK.
Chairwoman Sherrill [continuing]. But we can also add some
questions for the record.
At this point, I would like to recognize the Ranking Member
of the Subcommittee Mrs. Bice for five minutes.
Mrs. Bice. Thank you.
Several reports show that only a small fraction of
satellite data we currently collect is utilized by forecast
models. Dr. Petty, what are your thoughts on how we can extract
more value from this significant amount of existing satellite
data?
Dr. Petty. Thank you, Ranking Member Bice. I think that's
an excellent question from the standpoint that as the report,
which is an excellent report, calls out, we need to continue to
do work on data assimilation. And data assimilation is a key
aspect of how we gain an initial understanding of the state of
the atmosphere. So as we forecast that atmosphere future in
time or forward in time, those forecasts become better. Through
data assimilation, and through investments of data
assimilation, we will be able to take more and better advantage
of those satellite observations.
I will also just quickly add that as we move forward in
time, there are opportunities to improve those satellite
observations. And so as we identify gaps and determine how to
fill those gaps, satellite platforms will be one component of
that, along with terrestrial observations.
Mrs. Bice. And when you say--when you talk about data
assimilation, what is the best way to do that? Are you talking
academia, private industry? What do you feel like is a good
pathway for that?
Dr. Petty. Yes, I think that, that pathways across the
board, the report points out some efforts to bring the
community get together through aspects of things like JEDI
(Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration), which is a
data assimilation initiative. Through that initiative, we're
bringing the academic sector together, along with the public
sector and the private sector. Some people don't recognize that
even in the private sector, there are teams doing data
assimilation. So that's an opportunity as well, to bring these
scientists together to work on the best solutions.
Mrs. Bice. Thank you. In the coming weeks, I'll be
introducing a bill that codifies and expands the National
Mesonet Program. The goal is to encourage and incentivize more
States to build out or upgrade their systems so that we can
have more mesoscale data across the country. Dr. Carr, given
your familiarity with the Oklahoma Mesonet, how can we--how can
more mesonet observation supplement--wow, I'm off today. Dr.
Carr, given your familiarity with the Oklahoma Mesonet, how can
more mesonet observations supplement, improve, and add value to
the satellite data we currently have? I think your microphone
may be turned off, Dr. Carr.
Dr. Carr. I don't know if I ever had it on. Can I have the
5 minutes? No, anyway, I think that's a great question. I'm
glad to hear that--what you're about to propose. I think we
have 30-something States with mesonets now all trying to match
the gold standard that the Oklahoma Mesonet sets, so getting
all the States on board would be great.
I think the most important addition that we could add is to
add the third dimension to the mesonet program. So they're
starting now, but, you know, there's tens of thousands of
surface measurements all over the United States. But as soon as
you go up 100 meters, there's almost nothing. There's 70
radiosondes, you know, weather balloon stations. So we really
need to increase the third dimension and add observing systems
like profiling, vertical profiling networks to measure
temperature and moisture and wind in the lowest--what we call
the lowest mile of the atmosphere. We call it the boundary
layer. So an increase in measurements in the lowest levels of
the atmosphere in a three-dimensional way would be the most
important thing we could do.
Mrs. Bice. Thank you. As all of you know, NOAA is
developing and releasing a user-friendly Community Earth System
Model. There is also progress toward standing up the Earth
Prediction Innovation Center, EPIC, which addresses the
research-to-operations challenge by requiring NOAA to leverage
expertise across the broader weather enterprise. How can
capabilities like the Community Earth System Model and EPIC be
most easily leveraged by academic institutions for research and
education? That's open to any of you.
Dr. Carr. Yes, I was very involved in the creation of EPIC.
So it's got a great start. We have Raytheon, who got the first
contract, and they have a lot of task orders to provide
computer support and move the codes to the cloud, provide user
support. But what's missing in that contract is that we want
the community and the private sector and everyone to be
involved in improving the models, but there's no funding for
this community. So Raytheon is doing its tasks on users and
computer support, technical support, which is really important
because we're short on software engineering that they have. But
in order for the community to be involved, the private sector
partners and the academic partners need funding to do the
research needed to improve the models.
Mrs. Bice. Thank you for the witnesses for being here this
morning, and I yield back.
Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you. And I'd like to bring to
the Subcommittee's attention a letter for the record from PJM
Interconnection, LLC. PJM is the Nation's largest regional
transmission organization, responsible for ensuring the
reliability of the high voltage electric grid and planning the
expansion of the transmission grid. PJM is regulated by the
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and serves all or parts of
the States of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland,
Virginia, North Carolina, West Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky,
Tennessee, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, and the District of
Columbia. This letter highlights the importance of NOAA's
activities as a critical input to PJM's work in ensuring the
reliable operation of the electric power grid.
So without objection, I am placing these documents in the
record.
Next, I would like to recognize Congresswoman Bonamici for
five minutes.
Ms. Bonamici. Thank you so much, Chair Sherrill and Ranking
Member Bice, for hosting this hearing, and thank you to our
witnesses.
We know that weather events are increasing in frequency and
severity because of climate change, and in the past few years,
northwest Oregon has experienced lethal heat waves and
devastating wildfires. We also continue to prepare for a
potentially catastrophic seismic event off our coastline.
I worked in the past with Ranking Member Lucas and others
on the historic and bipartisan Weather Research and Forecasting
Innovation Act, which is intended to improve weather
forecasting and increase Federal weather coordination.
Dr. Glenn, how can improved weather forecasting prepare
communities for severe weather events? And how can improved
weather modeling deepen our understanding of the consequences
of climate change?
Dr. Glenn. Thank you, Congresswoman, for that question. So
how can we help the communities prepare? The third pillar of
the whole weather enterprise was the information delivery piece
of that. That's the critical piece that often gets left off the
table, right? Many of the priorities come up at the beginning
of the value chain, at the getting the data to improve our
understanding, improving the model and all that. But then we
have to communicate with those communities.
And so we see how that's done in places like the Hurricane
Center or something like that, where they had that trusted
relationship with the emergency managers, and they have the
ensemble of guidance that is guiding them. And so we talked to
those hurricane centers, and they say, improve the accuracy of
those ensemble models. That's the first step that you have to
do. And so that's why you always hear us talking about that as
that first step.
And then that second step is building that trust with the
emergency managers that have the real-time data coming in so
they can choose this is the ensemble piece and then this is the
piece that we want to communicate.
And then there's all the research on how you communicate
with those groups that has to be funded at some point so that
we can understand their needs and bring them back. And that's
how the requirements flow back through the whole weather
enterprise. And so there's this important research on how we
communicate, especially in probabilistic forecasts and the
longer-term forecasts.
Ms. Bonamici. I appreciate that. And I remember, and I'm
sure Mr. Lucas does as well, all the conversations about the
social science of communication and making sure that the
message is clear and urgent.
So, Dr. Carr, your testimony and findings from the NOAA
study indicate that immediate investments in our weather work
force are needed to fill existing gaps so that, in the future,
the Nation can rely on a highly technical and diverse work
force trained in modern weather forecasting techniques. So, Dr.
Carr, what is the existing pipeline for the weather work force,
and where is further investment needed? What steps can we take
to make sure this work force can be effectively mobilized
during times of crisis?
Dr. Carr. OK, thank you. For that question, a couple of
aspects to that. One is, is that the research that we talk
about that is needed also helps the work force issue so that
the professors, researchers have graduate students, and these
become the future work force. So when something is really
technical like data assimilation, if we provide more research
to work with NOAA on this issue and you have more graduate
students and postdocs, that will increase the work force.
We, of course, need a lot of software engineering from the
computer science component of universities and the private
sector. And the issue there is they're very expensive for a
government to hire. The private sector will always pay software
engineers more, so we need a way for NOAA to have an entity
like EPIC that can hire software engineers maybe at the going
rate and then help with the IT (information technology) aspect
of that problem.
Ms. Bonamici. Does anybody else have thoughts on how we can
bolster the work force? I have 30 seconds left. Dr. Petty?
Dr. Petty. Yes, absolutely. I think kind of following on to
what Dr. Carr has said, utilizing those funds to build
partnerships, so, for example, when I talk about the private
sector, the private sector is really looking at those
partnerships, hey, we can have interns who can be a part of the
private sector and learn the technology, learn the research so
that we're working together to build that work force. And I
think that's an important approach.
Ms. Bonamici. I appreciate that. And as I yield back, Madam
Chair, I just want to note as well the important issue of the
high-performance computing. And I know this Committee has
worked on quantum initiatives and others that are so important
to this issue. Thank you. I yield back.
Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you. And I now recognize the
Ranking Member of the Full Committee, Mr. Lucas, for five
minutes.
Mr. Lucas. Thank you, Chairwoman. And I'm going to address
my question the entire panel. As I mentioned in my testimony,
this Committee will be charged with reauthorizing the Weather
Act during the next Congress. The report you've highlighted
today will undoubtedly inform our deliberations as we think
ahead on the topic. Given your respective roles in crafting
this report, would each of you highlight one recommendation for
this Committee as we consider topics to address in the upcoming
Weather Act? Just one, and I don't care who starts. And if we
have enough time, everybody, our way, gentleman.
Dr. Petty. I'll be happy to start. My recommendation is
found in the report, and that is enhancing our observations,
particularly observations of the boundary layer. That's a
critical component that we're missing as part of our data
assimilation or modeling to make our forecast better.
Mr. Lucas. Dr. Glenn?
Dr. Glenn. Thank you. I was also going to focus on
observations. I think that's a critical part, the Earth systems
observations. Many of our networks have been started, have
demonstrated value, but they're incomplete, especially our
ocean-observing networks. And so completing the existing ones,
as we expand out to the new ones that are needed by the new
Earth systems models, would be what I would highlight.
Dr. Colman. Yes, thank you for the question. As we tried to
point out in the report, we don't feel it's one simple answer.
It's got to be across the whole board. Having said that, I will
call out the information delivery piece. As I mentioned in my
testimony, there is an increasing gap between what we're able
to produce, the numerical models, and the--what the forecasters
then produce and send out than what people are getting and
understanding. And we see that in day-to-day weather events
where people take the wrong action. And we really need to put
that investment in the behavioral and social sciences upfront
and make sure we're getting all of the benefit from the other
investments in the pipeline itself.
We have underserved and vulnerable populations that--
different languages that do not get--currently get the right
information and communications. We can't overstate the
importance of making sure we complete that process so that they
all benefit from the investments that all of you are willing to
do.
Mr. Lucas. Dr. Carr?
Dr. Carr. Yes, so I'll speak up for the computing because
as we add more observation capacity, get billions more
observations from satellites, which are already planned to go
up, as we increase the sophistication of the models and improve
data assimilation and have more ensembles and increase our
resolution, you can't do any of that without having the
computing power necessary to accomplish it.
Mr. Lucas. Along that line, Dr. Carr, continuing with you,
and clearly it's a concern of several of us on this Committee,
how did the problem develop? Did we just not make the right
investments at the key moment? How did we get to this point
where we need to catch up when it comes to computing power
issues?
Dr. Carr. Well, that's a complicated issue. I think we've
always been a little bit behind. And the procurement process
takes a long time so that by the time you get a new system,
there's always systems that are already 10 times faster. And
so--and maybe that is the way it is, but the Department of
Energy somehow manages to get investments so that they can have
exascale systems for at least six of their laboratories. And,
as I said in my testimony, I think we should be more ambitious
and see if NOAA can become the second place in the country to
develop exascale computing capacity. I think you just need to
be ambitious and want it, as well as have the resources.
Mr. Lucas. And I would note for the record, sometimes our
questions may seem repetitive, but we as Members tend to hone
in on the information that you provide us. We're directed
toward the points you make, and such as the computing issue
with additional questions, we tend to reinforce where the body
of this institution needs to go. Your testimony matters more
than you can possibly imagine on occasions like this.
With that, I yield back, Madam Chair.
Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you, Mr. Lucas. And I think we
have time for another round of questions, so I'll recognize
myself for five minutes.
Dr. Carr, you talked about underutilized observations, and
I wonder if you could go in--a little bit into that. You also
mentioned sustained versus supplemental funding. And it sounds
as if--and Dr. Glenn could probably attest to that--a lot of
the work we've done has been based on the Sandy Supplemental
and now we have the Ida Supplemental. If you could talk a
little bit, and then if you want to weigh in, Dr. Glenn, about
sustained versus supplemental funding, how the supplemental
funding has impacted your research, but then the problematic
issues related to not sustained funding. So if you could just
start with the underutilized observations you were talking
about, what those are?
Dr. Carr. Yes. So with respect to--there's two aspects to
underutilized. One is there's a tremendous amount of surface
network observations out there, and then a lot of them are not
government. So there's this big effort under the National
Mesonet Program, to try to gather together all of the service
networks that are produced by local and State agencies and
there's just thousands of them out there. So we're working to
get----
Chairwoman Sherrill. So since I just have a quick period of
time, so you're talking State and local organizations because I
know Dr. Petty also mentioned other opportunities, but my
understanding is a lot of the private source of weather
information is proprietary. And would that be more difficult to
share with the government?
Dr. Carr. It could be, but it is being done. And so, in
fact, the Nation's Lightning Network is totally private, and
NOAA buys those data. So--and the National Mesonet Program is
in the process of buying a lot of the surface data because they
see that it's worthwhile. And then with satellites, as Dr.
Petty mentioned, there's just so many instruments and so many
channels producing so much high-resolution data. So every day,
about--hundreds of millions of observations are produced by
satellites, maybe billions, but the models will use about
300,000 of them so--because there's so much that we just have
to learn how to better use them. And that's what we mean by
better utilization of satellite data. And as we increase the
resolution in our models, we'll be able to use more of it. And
we need to have more sophistication in the data assimilation.
And I think the other issue was----
Chairwoman Sherrill. Funding.
Dr. Carr [continuing]. Funding. Yes, the problem with
supplementals is that they're great, they buy us new computers,
but it's impossible to do long-range planning because we just
don't have the--the annual appropriation is just too little to
plan for a really ambitious--the really ambitious computer
power that we need. So it's basically a long-range issue--the
ability to do long-range planning.
Chairwoman Sherrill. And Dr. Glenn, if you could talk a
little bit about--because it sounds like the year leaves too
little, what the supplemental enables you to do as far as
weather research.
Dr. Glenn. I think the Sandy Supplemental was an excellent
example of how some of these things can get done. The Sandy
Supplemental replaced damaged infrastructure, 17 HF (high
frequency) radars that were gone that we use for search and
rescue every day off the coast. It helped with operations of
getting our gliders that Ranking Member Bice talked about out
to sea. But what it also supported was the research that helped
with the fundamental understanding that started this 10-year
activity of working with the Hurricane Center and the groups
like Environmental Modeling Center, that got me here to this
meeting today. It was through that Sandy Supplemental that that
research happened. And that research is being put into
operations now. The problem with the operational support for
these new activities is that it is also in supplementals. And
this year, we are in between supplementals so that hurricane
glider fleet that you were talking about is going to be much
reduced this year when we expect an overactive hurricane
season.
Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you. I yield back. Mrs. Bice, do
you have any further questions?
Mrs. Bice. One additional question. Dr. Carr, you are very
familiar with the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma.
Since its opening in 2006, it has brought together all aspects
of the weather enterprise, including NOAA researchers, faculty
from the University of Oklahoma, local forecasters, and the
Oklahoma Mesonet office. How has this model of having different
components of the weather enterprise under one roof resulted in
better research?
Dr. Carr. Thank you, Ranking Member Bice, for that
question. Yes, so I obviously was very involved in the planning
and building of the weather center. And we have about 11
weather entities in there, including the School of Meteorology,
with its 300 students and 100 graduate students. And I think
it's really beneficial for those students to be in the place
where the weather knowledge is being put into practice in the
Weather Service Forecast Office. And the building is designed
so that people can run into each other. The students run into
people who wrote their textbooks, they run into the
practitioners, the forecasters, they run into the research.
They get to have internships and student assistant positions.
So it's just wonderful for our students because I would imagine
by the time they're seniors, probably over 75 percent of our
students have some kind of student employment in one center or
the other, the Mesonet or the NSSL (National Severe Storms
Laboratory), and that's just a fantastic thing for our
students.
Mrs. Bice. And do you think this is something that we
should be looking at more collectively as we look to the future
for weather research, these types of models where you're
bringing everyone together under one roof?
Dr. Carr. Well, yes, I think there's a half a dozen other
universities who are co-located with their National Weather
Service forecast office. I would certainly encourage more of
that. And anytime you have a NOAA laboratory--they do have
these cooperative institutes, and there's quite a few NOAA
cooperative institutes that are co-located with universities.
And so that model is working well, so I think we should
continue to support our cooperative institutes.
Mrs. Bice. Excellent. Thank you, Madam Chair. I yield back.
Chairwoman Sherrill. Well, thank you.
Before we bring the hearing to a close, I want to thank our
witnesses for testifying before the Committee today. The record
will remain open for two weeks for additional statements from
the Members and for any additional questions the Committee may
ask of the witnesses. The witnesses are excused, and the
hearing is now adjourned.
[Whereupon, at 11:08 a.m., the Subcommittee was adjourned.]
Appendix
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