    [House Hearing, 117 Congress]
    [From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]

                          WHAT'S THE FORECAST: A LOOK
                       AT THE FUTURE OF WEATHER RESEARCH

    =======================================================================

                                    HEARING

                                   BEFORE THE

                          SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT

                                     OF THE

                          COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE,
                                 AND TECHNOLOGY

                                     OF THE

                            HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

                        ONE HUNDRED SEVENTEENTH CONGRESS

                                 SECOND SESSION

                                   __________

                                 JUNE 14, 2022

                                   __________

                               Serial No. 117-58

                                   __________

     Printed for the use of the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology

     [GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]

           Available via the World Wide Web: http://science.house.gov

                                 _________

                     U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE

    47-605 PDF               WASHINGTON : 2023

                  COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY

                 HON. EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas, Chairwoman
    ZOE LOFGREN, California              FRANK LUCAS, Oklahoma,
    SUZANNE BONAMICI, Oregon                 Ranking Member
    AMI BERA, California                 MO BROOKS, Alabama
    HALEY STEVENS, Michigan,             BILL POSEY, Florida
        Vice Chair                       RANDY WEBER, Texas
    MIKIE SHERRILL, New Jersey           BRIAN BABIN, Texas
    JAMAAL BOWMAN, New York              ANTHONY GONZALEZ, Ohio
    MELANIE A. STANSBURY, New Mexico     MICHAEL WALTZ, Florida
    BRAD SHERMAN, California             JAMES R. BAIRD, Indiana
    ED PERLMUTTER, Colorado              DANIEL WEBSTER, Florida
    JERRY McNERNEY, California           MIKE GARCIA, California
    PAUL TONKO, New York                 STEPHANIE I. BICE, Oklahoma
    BILL FOSTER, Illinois                YOUNG KIM, California
    DONALD NORCROSS, New Jersey          RANDY FEENSTRA, Iowa
    DON BEYER, Virginia                  JAKE LaTURNER, Kansas
    CHARLIE CRIST, Florida               CARLOS A. GIMENEZ, Florida
    SEAN CASTEN, Illinois                JAY OBERNOLTE, California
    CONOR LAMB, Pennsylvania             PETER MEIJER, Michigan
    DEBORAH ROSS, North Carolina         JAKE ELLZEY, TEXAS
    GWEN MOORE, Wisconsin                MIKE CAREY, OHIO
    DAN KILDEE, Michigan
    SUSAN WILD, Pennsylvania
    LIZZIE FLETCHER, Texas
                                     ------

                          Subcommittee on Environment

                  HON. MIKIE SHERRILL, New Jersey, Chairwoman
    SUZANNE BONAMICI, Oregon             STEPHANIE I. BICE, Oklahoma,
    DAN KILDEE, Michigan                   Ranking Member
    LIZZIE FLETCHER, Texas               ANTHONY GONZALEZ, Ohio
    CHARLIE CRIST, Florida               RANDY FEENSTRA, Iowa
    SEAN CASTEN, Illinois                CARLOS A. GIMENEZ, Florida

                             C  O  N  T  E  N  T  S

                                 June 14, 2022

                                                                       Page

    Hearing Charter..................................................     2

                               Opening Statements

    Statement by Representative Mikie Sherrill, Chairwoman,
      Subcommittee on Environment, Committee on Science, Space, and
      Technology, U.S. House of Representatives......................     7
        Written Statement............................................     8

    Statement by Representative Stephanie I. Bice, Ranking Member,
      Subcommittee on Environment, Committee on Science, Space, and
      Technology, U.S. House of Representatives......................     9
        Written Statement............................................    10

    Statement by Representative Frank Lucas, Ranking Member,
      Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of
      Representatives................................................    11
        Written Statement............................................    12

    Written statement by Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson,
      Chairwoman, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S.
      House of Representatives.......................................    14

                                   Witnesses:

    Dr. Scott Glenn, Board of Governors Professor Center for Ocean
      Observing Leadership of the Department of Marine and Coastal
      Sciences, Rutgers University
        Oral Statement...............................................    15
        Written Statement............................................    17

    Dr. Bradley Colman, President-Elect of the American
      Meteorological Society; Director of Weather-Strategy, Bayer &
      The Climate Corporation
        Oral Statement...............................................    24
        Written Statement............................................    26

    Dr. Fred Carr, Professor Emeritus, School of Meteorology,
      University of Oklahoma
        Oral Statement...............................................    33
        Written Statement............................................    35

    Dr. Kevin R. Petty, VP, Weather and Earth Intelligence, Spire
      Global, Inc.
        Oral Statement...............................................    47
        Written Statement............................................    49

    Discussion.......................................................    55

                  Appendix: Additional Material for the Record

    Letter submitted by Representative Mikie Sherrill, Chairwoman,
      Subcommittee on Environment, Committee on Science, Space, and
      Technology, U.S. House of Representatives
        Michael E. Bryson, Senior Vice President--Operations, PJM....    66

                          WHAT'S THE FORECAST: A LOOK
                       AT THE FUTURE OF WEATHER RESEARCH

                                  ----------

                             TUESDAY, JUNE 14, 2022

                      House of Representatives,
                           Subcommittee on Environment,
                   Committee on Science, Space, and Technology,
                                                       Washington, D.C.

        The Subcommittee met, pursuant to notice, at 10 a.m., in
    room 3218 of the Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Mikie
    Sherrill [Chairwoman of the Subcommittee] presiding.

    [GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]

        Chairwoman Sherrill [continuing]. About the conduct of this
    hearing. First, Members and staff who are attending in person
    may choose to be masked, but it is not a requirement. However,
    any individual with symptoms, a positive test, or exposure to
    someone with COVID-19 should wear a mask while present.
        Members who are attending virtually should keep their video
    feed on as long as they are present in the hearing. Members are
    responsible for their own microphones. Please also keep your
    microphones muted unless you are speaking.
        Finally, if Members have documents they wish to submit for
    the record, please email them to the Committee Clerk, whose
    email address was circulated prior to the hearing.
        Good morning. Welcome to today's hearing on the future of
    weather research. Before we begin, I would like to take a
    moment to extend my sincere condolences to our colleague,
    Representative Sean Casten, whose daughter passed away
    yesterday. I am deeply sorry for his loss, and my thoughts are
    with him and his family during this difficult time.
        I'd now like to welcome all of our esteemed witnesses to
    today's hearing in person after two years of virtual and hybrid
    testimony.
        Weather forecasting plays an integral role in society and a
    crucial role in protecting lives during extreme weather events.
    You may not realize it, but each and every American benefits
    from the Federal investment made to support the National
    Weather Service (NWS) every day. Whether you are using a
    weather app on your phone or watching your local meteorologist
    on the evening news, these products and services depend on
    Federal weather data. Weather forecasting is consistently
    relied on to guide planning across the U.S., whether it's
    deciding whether to take an umbrella on a work commute,
    planning an outdoor gathering with friends and family, or
    determining a seasonal crop plan.
        My district has firsthand experience in the devastation
    that can be caused from extreme weather. The effects of
    Hurricane Sandy are still being felt by my constituents a
    decade later. The Hudson Tunnel remains compromised, and a
    project to rehabilitate the tunnel began only as recently as
    last year. While the Weather Service has significantly improved
    the accuracy of the hurricane track forecasts since Hurricane
    Sandy, there remains a need to improve intensity forecasts as
    well.
        I'm looking forward to hearing from Dr. Scott Glenn of
    Rutgers University on how funding from the Sandy Supplemental
    was critical to his research to better predict and understand
    hurricanes and why robust and consistent Federal funding is
    necessary to support the transition from weather research to
    operations.
        When considering the future of forecasting, it is crucial
    that long-term forecasting is also part of the conversation.
    The Northeast Regional Climate Center reports that over the
    past 20 years, New Jersey has had an increase in extreme
    precipitation. The report further predicts that precipitation
    intensity will continue to increase in my district by up to 50
    percent over the next 80 years from what was observed at the
    end of the 20th century as a result of climate change. In a
    region that has seen the impacts of localized flooding events
    cause hard hits to homes and businesses, this report is
    alarming.
        Just last September, we lost 27 lives across New Jersey in
    the wake of Tropical Storm Ida. The sudden intensity and
    precise location of rainfall and flooding was difficult to
    predict. Emergency responders rescued people from roadways and
    homes where they did not expect flooding to impact them. I
    heard from a mother in my district who, along with her young
    children, had to be rescued from her home at night during
    Hurricane Ida. She said that she had been told at 5 p.m. that
    the storm would pass to the west. Empowering residents with
    accurate long-term and short-term precipitation models will
    give them the information they need when planning a move or a
    new business location or preparing for an accurate weather
    event like--acute weather event like Ida.
        Improving our understanding of precipitation trends and
    hurricane intensity is not just important for my constituents
    but for all Americans. The accuracy of short-term weather
    forecasts in the range of a few days to two weeks has improved
    significantly in recent decades. However, there remain gaps in
    our ability to provide sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts.
    Improved longer-term forecasts that are on the order of weeks
    to months would support the resiliency of critical
    infrastructure sectors like transportation, utility, and energy
    sectors that we rely on every day.
        To better understand what is needed to improve weather
    forecasting, Congress requested a report to identify necessary
    weather research investments. The Priorities for Weather
    Research, or PWR, pronounced ``power,'' report is a compilation
    of expert recommendations from across the U.S. Weather
    Enterprise, made up of public, private, and academic partners.
    This report highlights the investments needed over the next
    decade in weather research, observations, modeling,
    forecasting, and dissemination. It takes into consideration how
    Federal investment in weather research supports the private and
    academic sectors of the weather enterprise. We are fortunate
    that our witness panel today includes not only the co-authors
    of this report but perspectives from across the Weather
    Enterprise.
        In the midst of another Atlantic Hurricane season predicted
    to have above-normal activity, accurate forecasts coupled with
    timely dissemination will be necessary to ensure the safety and
    protect the livelihoods of Americans along the Gulf and East
    Coasts.
        I look forward to hearing more from our witnesses today on
    how Congress can support the U.S. Weather Enterprise through
    Federal investments in weather research that will benefit all
    Americans.
        [The prepared statement of Chairwoman Sherrill follows:]

        Good morning, and welcome to today's hearing on the future
    of weather research. I am especially pleased to welcome all our
    esteemed witnesses to today's hearing in person after two years
    of virtual and hybrid testimony.
        Weather forecasting plays an integral role in society, and
    a crucial role in protecting lives during extreme weather
    events. You may not realize it, but each and every American
    benefits from the federal investments made to support the
    National Weather Service every day. Whether you are using a
    weather app on your phone, or watching your local meteorologist
    on the evening news, these products and services depend on
    federal weather data. Weather forecasting is consistently
    relied on to guide planning across the US--whether it's
    deciding whether to take an umbrella on a work commute,
    planning an outdoor gathering with friends and family, or
    determining a seasonal crop plan.
        My district has first-hand experience in the devastation
    that can be caused from extreme weather. The effects of
    Hurricane Sandy are still being felt by my constituents a
    decade later. The Hudson Tunnel remains compromised, and a
    project to rehabilitate the tunnel began only as recently as
    last year. While the Weather Service has significantly improved
    the accuracy of the hurricane track forecasts since Hurricane
    Sandy, there remains a need to improve intensity forecasts as
    well. I'm looking forward to hearing from Dr. Scott Glenn of
    Rutgers University on how funding from the Sandy Supplemental
    was critical to his research to better predict and understand
    hurricanes, and why robust and consistent federal funding is
    necessary to support the transition from weather research to
    operations.
        When considering the future of forecasting, it is crucial
    that long-term forecasting is also part of the conversation.
    The Northeast Regional Climate Center reports that over the
    past 20 years, New Jersey has had an increase in extreme
    precipitation. The report further predicts that precipitation
    intensity will continue to increase in my district by up to 50%
    over the next eighty years from what was observed at the end of
    the 20th century as a result of climate change. In a region
    that has seen the impacts of localized flooding events cause
    hard hits to homes and businesses, this report is alarming.
    Just last September, we lost 27 lives across New Jersey in the
    wake of Tropical Storm Ida. The sudden intensity and precise
    location of rainfall and flooding was difficult to predict.
    Emergency responders rescued people from roadways and homes
    where they did not expect flooding to impact them. I heard from
    a mother in my district who, along with her young children, had
    to be rescued from her home at night during Hurricane Ida. She
    said that she had been told at 5 pm that the storm would pass
    to the west. Empowering residents with accurate long-term and
    short-term precipitation models will give them the information
    they need when planning a move or new business location or
    preparing for an acute weather event like Ida.
        Improving our understanding of precipitation trends and
    hurricane intensity is not just important for my constituents,
    but for all Americans. The accuracy of short-term weather
    forecasts in the range of a few days to two weeks has improved
    significantly in recent decades. However, there remain gaps in
    our ability to provide subseasonal to seasonal forecasts.
    Improved longer-term forecasts, that are on the order of weeks
    to months would support the resiliency of critical
    infrastructure sectors, like transportation, utility, and
    energy sectors, that we rely on every day.
        To better understand what is needed to improve weather
    forecasting, Congress requested a report to identify necessary
    weather research investments. The Priorities for Weather
    Research, or PWR, report is a compilation of expert
    recommendations from across the U.S. Weather Enterprise, made
    up of public, private, and academic partners. This report
    highlights the investments needed over the next decade in
    weather research, observations, modeling, forecasting, and
    dissemination. It takes into consideration how federal
    investment in weather research supports the private and
    academic sectors of the Weather Enterprise. We are fortunate
    that our witness panel today includes not only the co-leads of
    this report, but perspectives from across the Weather
    Enterprise.
        In the midst of another Atlantic Hurricane season predicted
    to have above normal activity, accurate forecasts coupled with
    timely dissemination will be necessary to ensure the safety,
    and protect the livelihoods, of Americans along the Gulf and
    East Coasts. I look forward to hearing more from our witnesses
    today on how Congress can support the U.S. Weather Enterprise
    through federal investments in weather research that will
    benefit all Americans.

        Chairwoman Sherrill. The Chair now recognizes Ranking
    Member Bice for an opening statement.
        Mrs. Bice. Thank you, Chairwoman Sherrill, and thank you to
    our entire panel of witnesses for taking the time to share your
    expertise with us this morning.
        Weather information does more than just help us decide how
    many layers to wear or whether to bring an umbrella. Forecasts
    based on accurate information are our No. 1 tool in protecting
    the life and property during severe weather events. That's
    extremely important because the United States experiences more
    extreme weather events than any other country. According to the
    National Weather Service, a typical year in the United States
    sees 26,000 thunderstorms, a few of which I see in my community
    weekly, 5,000 floods, 1,300 tornadoes, and six Atlantic basin
    hurricanes.
        Luckily, academia, government, and industry have come
    together in collaboration to improve the timely delivery and
    overall accuracy of weather products and services. Collectively
    known as the U.S. Weather Enterprise, each sector--public,
    private, and academic--plays a critical role in understanding,
    observing, forecasting, and helping warn communities of danger.
        The largest improvement to weather forecasting can be
    directly attributed to both basic and applied research.
    Collaboration across the weather enterprise is critical to
    conducting this research and translating it so it can be
    successfully deployed on a commercial scale. For example,
    atmospheric data collected from a satellite needs unique
    computer modeling and processing power to be useful. And the
    final forecast or output product must integrate behavioral and
    social science to make sure people fully understand it and its
    impact. No one sector can develop or do all of this on their
    own. That's why transitioning research into operations requires
    buy-in and collaboration from everyone. It cannot be a
    competition amongst ourselves.
        To aid in our forecasting goals, there are countless
    emerging technologies that can and should be deployed.
    Automated surface vehicles and gliders in the ocean, drones in
    the sky, and advanced radar systems on the ground all have the
    potential to collect data that can supplement current Federal
    efforts. Pursuing this research and subsequent
    commercialization will be invaluable to the United States and
    our communities. First, it will help us catch up to the
    European Union, which continues to outperform us with more
    accurate forecasting models.
        Second, it will support economic growth. Essential pillars
    of our economy are dependent on knowing what the weather will
    be. For example, we need solar and wind data for renewable
    energy production; precipitation information for ag production;
    water management analysis for urban communities; and accurate
    predictions for road, marine, and aviation transportation.
    These are all areas of increased investment, and all of them
    require forecasts for safe and efficient operation.
        I can't think of a better panel to address this critical
    topic. We have representatives from academia, the private
    sector, and professional societies. I want to especially extend
    my warmest welcome to Dr. Fred Carr, a fellow Oklahoman and
    Professor Emeritus at the University of Oklahoma (OU) with the
    newly minted women's national championship softball team.
    Although I am an Oklahoma State fan myself, I will admit OU is
    widely recognized as a national leader in meteorology and has
    made vital contributions in this field. In fact, the entire
    State of Oklahoma has long been viewed as the center of weather
    advancement in the United States, and I look forward to hearing
    how the National Weather Center in Norman is continuing to lead
    critical research and development.
        Again, I want to thank the witnesses for being here today,
    and I look forward to your testimony. With that, I turn the
    chair back over to Chairwoman Sherrill.
        [The prepared statement of Mrs. Bice follows:]

        Thank you, Chairwoman Sherrill, and thank you to our entire
    panel of witnesses for taking the time to share their expertise
    with us this morning.
        Weather information does more than help us decide how many
    layers to wear or if we need to carry an umbrella. Forecasts
    based on accurate information are our number one tool in
    protecting of life and property during severe weather events.
        That's extremely important because the United States
    experiences more extreme weather events than any other country.
    According to the National Weather Service, a typical year in
    the U.S. sees 26,000 thunderstorms, 5,000 floods, 1,300
    tornadoes, and six Atlantic basin hurricanes.
        Luckily academia, government, and industry have come
    together in collaboration to improve the timely delivery and
    overall accuracy of weather products and services.
        Collectively known as the U.S. Weather Enterprise, each
    sector--public, private, and academic--plays a critical role in
    understanding, observing, forecasting, and helping warn
    communities of danger.
        The largest improvement to weather forecasting can be
    directly attributed to both basic and applied research.
    Collaboration across the weather enterprise is critical to
    conducting this research and translating it so it can be
    successfully deployed on a commercial scale.
        For example, atmospheric data collected from a satellite
    needs unique computer modeling and processing power to be
    useful. And the final forecast or output product must integrate
    behavioral and social science to make sure people fully
    understand it and the impact.
        No one sector can develop and do all of this on their own.
    That is why transitioning research into operations requires buy
    in and collaboration from everyone. It cannot be a competition
    among ourselves.
        To aid in our forecasting goals, there are countless
    emerging technologies that can and should be deployed.
    Automated surface vehicles and gliders in the ocean, drones in
    the sky, and advanced radar systems on the ground all have the
    potential to collect data that can supplement current federal
    efforts.
        Pursuing this research and subsequent commercialization
    will be invaluable to the United States and our communities.
        First, it will help us catch up to the European Union,
    which continues to outperform us with more accurate forecasting
    models.
        Second, it will support our economic growth. Essential
    pillars of our economy are dependent on knowing what the
    weather will be.
        For example, we need solar and wind data for renewable
    energy production; precipitation information for agricultural
    production; water management analysis for urban communities;
    and accurate predictions for road, marine and aviation
    transportation.
        These are all areas of increased investment, and all of
    them require forecasts for safe and efficient operation.
        I can't think of a better panel to address this critical
    topic. We have representatives from academia, the private
    sector, and professional societies.
        I especially want to extend my warmest welcome to Dr. Fred
    Carr, a fellow Oklahoman and Professor Emeritus at the
    University of Oklahoma.
        Although I'm an Oklahoma State Poke myself, I'll admit OU
    is widely recognized as a national leader in meteorology and
    has made vital contributions in this field.
        In fact, the entire state of Oklahoma has long been viewed
    as the center of weather advancement in the U.S. and I look
    forward to hearing how the National Weather Center in Norman is
    continuing to lead critical research and development.
        Again, I want to thank our witnesses for being here today
    and I look forward to each of your testimony. Thank you,
    Chairwoman Sherrill, I yield back the balance of my time.

        Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you. And we are honored to have
    the Full Committee Ranking Member Mr. Lucas with us today. The
    Chair now recognizes Ranking--the Ranking Member for an opening
    statement.
        Mr. Lucas. Thank you for holding today's hearing on this
    important topic, Chairwoman Sherrill.
        Since I became the Ranking Member of this Committee, I have
    time and again stated that the work we do on weather
    forecasting is as important as any topic before us. Protecting
    life and property, helping first responders anticipate maximum
    weather events, or ensuring that farmers and ranchers know when
    to best plant crops are only a few of the reasons having
    accurate weather forecasts is invaluable. And we can only have
    accurate weather forecasts if we continue to invest in
    resources in researching weather patterns.
        The Ranking Member of the Subcommittee and I are both
    honored to represent Oklahoma, home to some of the most
    important weather research occurring today. The National
    Weather Center, located in Norman, brings together NOAA
    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) researchers,
    the University of Oklahoma faculty, and local weather
    forecasters under one roof. This collaboration is an important
    model for how NOAA research should operate.
        Additionally, Oklahoma is home to the Nation's premier
    mesonet, which provides real-time data thanks to a series of
    small but powerful monitoring stations across the State. The
    mesonet has been a valuable resource for farmers, ranchers,
    first responders, and weather forecasters for more than 25
    years, and I believe our mesonet should serve as a model for
    other weather observation systems across the country.
        It is with this background that I am proud to sponsor the
    Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act, more commonly
    known as the Weather Act. This legislation, signed into law by
    President Trump in April 2017, was the most significant
    weather-related legislation to become law in 25 years. This
    legislation helped redefine NOAA's weather research priorities
    in recent years and also helped spur innovation by creating a
    pilot program which directed the utilization of commercially
    purchased data in NOAA's weather models.
        The Weather Act is due for reauthorization at the end of
    September 2023. Though that is more than a year away, I
    consider today's hearing to be a kickoff in our reauthorization
    process and encourage our witnesses to frame their
    recommendations with this in mind.
        In December of 2020, Congress directed NOAA's Science
    Advisory Board to commission a report on future priorities in
    weather research. This report, completed in December 2021,
    utilized some of the finest minds across the weather
    enterprise. This report contains many recommendations, ranging
    from improving Earth-system modeling to increasing NOAA's
    computing capacity. These recommendations should inform how we
    approach reauthorizing the Weather Act.
        Today's hearing is important because it provides a starting
    point for us in discussions about what areas where we have
    improved our knowledge of weather research, as well as gaps we
    need to address in the future.
        I want to thank the witnesses for sharing their expertise,
    and I look forward to a very productive discussion.
        And before I yield back, just a personal moment to share my
    sincere feelings with the Chairman about the loss of one of our
    colleagues. Nothing can hurt more. And with that, I yield back,
    Madam Chair.
        Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you so much, Mr. Lucas.
        [The prepared statement of Mr. Lucas follows:]

        Thank you for holding today's hearing on this important
    topic, Chairwoman Sherrill.
        Since I became the ranking member of this committee, I have
    time and again stated that the work we do on weather
    forecasting is as important as any topic before us.
        Protecting life and property, helping first responders
    anticipate extreme weather events, or ensuring that farmers and
    ranchers know when best to plant crops are only a few of the
    reasons having accurate weather forecasts is invaluable. And we
    can only have accurate weather forecasts if we continue to
    invest resources in researching weather patterns.
        The ranking member of the subcommittee and I are both
    honored to represent Oklahoma, home to some of the most
    important weather research occurring today. The National
    Weather Center, located in Norman, brings together NOAA
    researchers, University of Oklahoma faculty, and local weather
    forecasters under one roof. This collaboration is an important
    model for how NOAA research should operate.
        Additionally, Oklahoma is home to the nation's premier
    Mesonet, which provides real- time data thanks to a series of
    small, but powerful monitoring states across the state. The
    Mesonet has been a valuable resource for farmers, ranchers,
    first responders and weather forecasters, for more than 25
    years, and I believe our Mesonet should serve as a model for
    other local weather observation systems across the country.
        It is with this background that I was proud to sponsor the
    Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act, more commonly
    known as the Weather Act. This legislation, signed into law by
    President Trump in April of 2017, was the most significant
    weather- related legislation to become law in 25 years. This
    legislation helped redefine NOAA's weather research priorities
    in recent years and also helped spur innovation by creating a
    pilot program which directed the utilization of commercially
    purchased data in NOAA's weather models.
        The Weather Act is due for reauthorization at the end of
    September 2023. Though that is more than a year away, I
    consider today's hearing to be the kickoff in our
    reauthorization process and encourage our witnesses to frame
    their recommendations with this in mind.
        In December 2020, Congress directed NOAA's Science Advisory
    Board to commission a report on future priorities in weather
    research. This report, completed in December 2021, utilized
    some of the finest minds across the weather enterprise. This
    report contains many recommendations, ranging from improving
    Earth-system modeling to increasing NOAA's computing capacity.
    These recommendations should inform how we approach
    reauthorizing the Weather Act.
        Today's hearing is important because it provides a starting
    point for us in discussions about areas where we have improved
    our knowledge of weather research as well as gaps we need to
    address in the future.
        I thank our witnesses for sharing their expertise with us
    and I look forward to a productive discussion. Thank you and I
    yield back.

        Chairwoman Sherrill. At this time, I'd like to introduce
    our witnesses. I'm pleased to introduce a fellow New Jerseyan
    Dr. Scott Glenn as our first witness. Dr. Glenn is a Board of
    Governors Professor of Marine and Coastal Sciences and Co-
    Director of the Center for Ocean Observing Leadership at
    Rutgers University. Dr. Glenn's research has focused on the
    development of remote and autonomous technologies for ocean
    observing in extreme environments, the modeling of coupled
    ocean atmosphere systems, and improving the forecasting of
    hurricanes. Dr. Glenn is one of the NOAA SAB (Science Advisory
    Board) PWR report co-leads.
        Our next witness is Dr. Brad Colman. Dr. Colman is the
    Director of Weather Strategy for the Bayer Climate LLC, and
    President-Elect of the American Meteorological Society (AMS).
    At Bayer, he coordinates across multiple divisions to set
    weather priorities and works with scientists, engineers, and
    vendors to deliver critical environmental information across
    Bayer's global agriculture industry. Prior to joining the
    private sector, Dr. Colman had a nearly four-decade-long career
    with NOAA, ranging from a forecaster to NOAA NWS Lab Director.
    Dr. Colman is also one of the NOAA SAB PWR report co-leads.
        Our next witness today is Dr. Frederick Carr. Dr. Carr is
    currently the McCasland Foundation Presidential Professor
    Emeritus and Director Emeritus in the School of Meteorology at
    the University of Oklahoma. His research interests include
    numerical weather prediction, data assimilation, synoptic
    mesoscale and tropical meteorology, and use of new observing
    systems. Among his wide variety of professional activities, Dr.
    Carr was the President of the American Meteorological Society
    in 2016, served on the AMS's Executive Committee from 2015 to
    2019, and is a Fellow of the AMS in addition to currently
    chairing its Committee on Ethics.
        Our final witness is Dr. Kevin Petty. Dr. Petty is the Vice
    President of Weather and Earth Intelligence at Spire. Dr. Petty
    oversees science and engineering associated with the delivery
    of weather-related products and solutions, as well as the
    development of new observations that support our understanding
    of the planet. Before joining Spire, Dr. Petty was the Director
    of Science and Weather--and forecast operations at The Weather
    Company, an IBM Business. He has also worked as a Project
    Scientist and Scientific Program Manager with the National
    Center for Atmospheric Research, and Senior Meteorologist for
    the National Transportation Safety Board.
        If there are Members who wish to submit additional opening
    statements, your statements will be added to the record at this
    point.
         [The prepared statement of Chairwoman Johnson follows:]

        Good morning, everyone. I want to thank Chairwoman Sherrill
    for holding today's hearing on a very important topic: the
    future of weather research. I also want to welcome our
    witnesses and I look forward to your testimony.
        The U.S. Weather Enterprise-the public sector, the private
    sector, and academia-have made considerable strides in
    improving forecasts over the past few decades. However, we must
    not become complacent and assume this progress is enough-it is
    not.
        As many of you know, high-temperature records are being
    shattered across the southern U.S. Last Saturday, temperatures
    in my district and the surrounding areas in the DFW Metroplex
    exceeded 100 degrees Fahrenheit for the first time in 2022. The
    last time we exceeded 100 degrees this early in the year was
    2010.
        We have often discussed in this Committee how climate
    change is leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather
    events.
        From 2017 to 2021, the cumulative cost of billion-dollar or
    greater weather and climate disasters was nearly three-quarters
    of a trillion dollars. And last year alone, there were twenty
    major disasters resulting in approximately 145 billion dollars
    of damages. These damages, and the human toll, would have been
    would far greater if we hadn't previously invested in weather
    research.
        It is essential that we have the necessary resources and
    capabilities to accurately predict these weather events, as
    well as to prepare our communities for them.
        In order to better understand what is needed to support
    American excellence in weather forecasting, we turned to the
    experts.
        In 2019, Congress charged NOAA's Science Advisory Board
    (SAB) to assess the needs for weather research. Specifically,
    the SAB was charged with identifying the Federal investments in
    weather research and forecasting needed over the next decade.
    As a result, NOAA's SAB produced the Priorities of Weather
    Research report in December of 2021.
        We are fortunate to have four experts in weather research
    testifying this morning, which includes the NOAA SAB report's
    co-leads. This report could not be better timed. In 2022, we
    have to shift the paradigm around weather forecasting in the
    U.S.
        We must make decisions about forecasting improvements with
    the needs of the most vulnerable communities at the forefront,
    and not as an afterthought. This will require robust and
    consistent funding from Congress. This Committee will have a
    key legislative and oversight role to play.
        Today's hearing is a continuation of this Committee's work
    to discuss topics pertinent to improving U.S. weather
    forecasting.
        The major themes in this report align with topics we have
    often discussed on this Committee. The case has been made many
    times over for the need to improve weather forecasting in the
    U.S.
        What is left for Congress to do is provide clear direction,
    and commensurate funding, to support weather research
    improvements. We cannot afford to underinvest in weather
    research. The time to act is now.
        I am looking forward to hearing from our esteemed panel of
    witnesses what the Federal government must prioritize in
    weather research. I hope today's hearing will serve as a
    roadmap for the future of NOAA's National Weather Service and
    the Weather Enterprise. With that, I yield back.

        Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you to all of our witnesses for
    joining us today.
        And at this point, we will begin our first round of
    questions. I'll now recognize myself for five minutes. Oh,
    sorry. So I'm going to recognize the witnesses in the order I
    introduced them. As you recall, you each have five minutes for
    your opening statements.
        So we'll start with Dr. Glenn.

                     TESTIMONY OF DR. SCOTT GLENN,

                  BOARD OF GOVERNORS PROFESSOR CENTER

                     FOR OCEAN OBSERVING LEADERSHIP

                      OF THE DEPARTMENT OF MARINE

                AND COASTAL SCIENCES, RUTGERS UNIVERSITY

        Dr. Glenn. Chairwoman Sherrill, Ranking Member Bice,
    Ranking Member Lucas, Members of the Subcommittee, I sincerely
    thank you all for the opportunity to speak today on the future
    of weather research and forecasting for our Nation. My name is
    Scott Glenn. I'm a Professor at Rutgers, the State University
    of New Jersey. And I'm--I was one of the co-leads for the NOAA
    Science Advisory Board report on the Priorities for Weather
    Research, often referred to as the PWR report. The views that
    I'm sharing today are my own and not those of Rutgers or NOAA.
        The PWR report was produced by over 150 subject matter
    experts from across the weather enterprise. Through a consensus
    approach, experts from multiple sectors and disciplines came
    together to provide policymakers the information necessary to
    prioritize Federal investments in weather research and
    forecasting over the next decade.
        PWR is an urgent call to action. That urgency is driven by
    the increasing frequency of extreme weather events that cause
    hundreds of deaths and hundreds of billions of dollars of
    damage each year. It is driven by the need to develop a vibrant
    economy that leverages weather information into competitive
    advantages, and it is driven by the need to support equity and
    environmental justice across our Nation.
        The PWR report responds by documenting priority investments
    across the three pillars of the weather enterprise:
    observations and data assimilation, forecasting, and
    information delivery.
        These pillars are built on the strong foundational elements
    of the weather enterprise itself, the people trained through
    work force development, the high-performance computing (HPC)
    for operations and research, and the world's best science.
    Taken together, the pillars and their foundational elements
    support our shared goal of a weather-ready nation.
        The results of the PWR study are 11 priority areas for
    investment, 33 recommendations and envisioned outcomes, and 102
    specific critical actions to achieve these goals. Acting on
    these recommendations will be transformational for NOAA, the
    weather enterprise, and the people we serve.
        To illustrate how this broad range of recommendations work
    together to support specific needs, PWR produced five narrative
    themes. One of those themes is high-impact weather. One example
    within this theme, the example I've studied my entire career,
    is hurricanes. Hurricanes are among the most destructive
    weather events on Earth. Since 1980, hurricanes have caused
    over $1 trillion in damage in the United States, more than all
    other weather and climate billion-dollar disasters combined.
        In my home State of New Jersey, over 80 percent of the
    billion-dollar disaster damage was caused by hurricanes. Having
    lived through the intense winds and flooding caused by
    Hurricanes Floyd, Irene, Sandy, Isaias, and Ida, I personally
    know the value of the good forecasts from our trusted National
    Hurricane Center.
        Through disaster supplemental appropriations provided by
    Congress that support hurricane observations and research, our
    science community has also learned what we can do to help make
    forecasts even better. Our team has pioneered new technologies
    for ocean observing in extreme conditions. We have used those
    technologies to develop a fundamentally new understanding of
    how the atmosphere and ocean are coupled and can rapidly co-
    evolve as hurricanes approach my home State. And we have helped
    transition both observation and modeling improvements into
    operational systems for NOAA, the Coast Guard and the Navy.
        Fundamental to those advances is continuing NOAA's
    transition to an Earth system modeling approach. This will
    require observations of the atmosphere and the ocean below. It
    will require high-performance computing for operations and
    research. And it will require collaboration that crosses line
    offices and sectors. All of the investment categories and
    approaches are outlined in the PWR report.
        As one specific example, hurricane forecasting in the
    United States has long benefited from Federal investments in
    the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program. However, success is
    currently being limited, not by vision, but by support. In my
    written testimony I've outlined three ways hurricane forecast
    improvements are being limited and what can be done about it.
        In conclusion, PWR provides a framework for transformation.
    Trends in extreme weather events lend urgency. I urge this
    Committee and Congress to act upon the recommendations outlined
    the PWR report so that together we can build and are able to
    serve the needs of our Nation. Thank you.
        [The prepared statement of Dr. Glenn follows:]

    [GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]

        Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you, Dr. Glenn. Next, I
    recognize Dr. Colman for five minutes.

            TESTIMONY OF DR. BRADLEY COLMAN, PRESIDENT-ELECT

                OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY;

                     DIRECTOR OF WEATHER-STRATEGY,

                    BAYER & THE CLIMATE CORPORATION

        Dr. Colman. Good morning. Chairwoman Sherrill, Ranking
    Member Bice, Committee Ranking Member Lucas and Members of the
    Subcommittee, thank you for this hearing and for inviting me to
    speak with you today about the future of weather research and
    forecasting. My name is Brad Colman. I'm currently the Director
    of Weather Strategy for Bayer's Climate Corporation, President-
    Elect of the American Meteorological Society, and co-lead with
    Dr. Glenn on the PWR report. The views I am sharing are my own
    and not those of Bayer or NOAA.
        I want to thank the Subcommittee for your support of the
    Weather Act and the NIDIS Reauthorization Act. These acts have
    been highly impactful and provide critical groundwork for many
    of the PWR report priorities.
        My testimony is based on four decades with NOAA, followed
    by nearly a decade in private industry. I worked across
    multiple levels at NOAA from Forecaster to Lab Director. At
    Bayer, we, like many other businesses, leverage NOAA's array of
    products, which supplement our own data and in-house expertise
    to serve our leading global agricultural business. I have seen
    NOAA's impact from the inside and out, and I have complementing
    perspectives of both its past and its potential future value.
        Today, we face sobering weather-related statistics. The
    Nation is suffering from increasing billion-dollar disasters
    and the loss of hundreds of Americans annually, all despite
    continually improving forecasts and warnings. Five-day
    forecasts are as good or better than 3-day forecasts were at
    the turn of the century. Forecast skill is now extending into
    the second week. Hurricane track forecasts at day 5 are now as
    good as a 2-day forecast was just in 1990. The benefits to the
    public, transportation, and private industry are remarkable.
        These gains were not achieved through singular investments,
    major breakthroughs, or by a single sector of the weather
    enterprise. Federal investments have been instrumental
    including the 88D radar network, next-generation satellites,
    and the National Weather Service's Weather-Ready Nation
    program. The academic and private sectors have made equally
    critical contributions. If done correctly, with planning and
    coordination across all sectors, the weather enterprise can
    extend this proven track record well beyond the next decade.
        I now want to discuss a core section of the report,
    critical first steps. This section lists 10 actions essential
    to the success of any comprehensive Federal investment plan.
    They are a subset of all recommendations in the report and fall
    into one of four areas: research and development,
    infrastructure, actions and impacts, and NOAA prioritization
    and investment.
        The first area, research and development, includes Earth
    system modeling, data assimilation, and social and behavioral
    sciences. As forecasting skill has increased, a significant gap
    has grown between weather information produced and known by
    forecasters and what is understood and acted upon by public and
    emergency management communities. Addressing this gap is
    especially critical for historically underserved and socially
    vulnerable populations. Investments in this area need to be
    significantly increased in order to achieve the full benefit
    from other investments in the weather information pipeline.
        I do not have time to speak to the area of infrastructure,
    which includes data assimilation, high-performance computing,
    and Earth system observing networks.
        The actions and impacts area includes reanalysis and
    reforecasting, high-impact weather and water cycle extremes.
    Reanalysis and reforecasting in support of operational
    numerical model development is critical and it needs immediate
    attention at NOAA. In fact, the launch of their first Earth
    system model scheduled for 2026 cannot be successfully
    implemented without this gap being addressed.
        The final area is NOAA prioritization and investment. At
    times, NOAA has struggled to align internal priorities and
    partner with external groups. This has likely reduced their
    overall impact. As such, increased Federal investments in NOAA
    National Weather Service programs would greatly benefit from
    NOAA having improved methods to assess, balance, and align
    these investments. Additionally, NOAA stands to benefit by
    increased partnerships with a broader weather enterprise. A
    strong private industry can provide value in the form of
    otherwise unavailable data, products, and services to Federal
    agencies that in turn accelerate the overall research and
    innovation through partnerships, including with the academic
    sector. Successes in this area are wins for the weather
    enterprise and wins for the Nation.
        In closing, this is a critical time. Our Nation is
    increasingly challenged by weather extremes and climate change
    impacts. The benefits of executing a successful PWR plan would
    be transformational. Together, we need to build off past
    successes, learn from past challenges, and work together toward
    a better prepared weather-ready nation.
        Thank you, and I look forward to your questions.
        [The prepared statement of Dr. Colman follows:]

    [GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]

        Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you, Dr. Colman.
        I now recognize Dr. Carr for five minutes.

            TESTIMONY OF DR. FRED CARR, PROFESSOR EMERITUS,

             SCHOOL OF METEOROLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA

        Dr. Carr. Thank you. Good morning. Chairwoman Sherrill,
    Ranking Member Bice, Science Committee Ranking Member Lucas,
    Subcommittee Members, it is an honor for me to testify about
    the future of weather research and forecasting for our Nation.
    My name is Frederick Carr from the University of Oklahoma, and
    I speak to you today as one who has spent over 40 years either
    working to improve computer-based weather prediction models or
    advising NOAA leaders on how to improve U.S. weather prediction
    capabilities.
        While National Weather Service forecasts are of high
    quality and provide great economic value, these forecasts are
    not world-best. Other global weather modeling centers produce
    greater forecast accuracy than we do. This gap shows that
    improved forecasts are possible and thus represents an
    opportunity for NOAA to serve the Nation even better than it
    does now.
        How do we achieve this improved skill? The good news is
    that we can improve forecasts of all high-impact weather
    phenomena--hurricanes, wildfires, flash flooding, severe
    storms, tornadoes, blizzards, heat and cold waves, droughts--by
    investments in three things: A, increased observations of the
    Earth system; B, development of Earth system models; and C,
    high-performance computing. Investments balanced across all
    three areas will enhance the skill of future forecast models,
    improve the guidance provided to weather forecasters, and lead
    to greater public safety and protection of the Nation's
    infrastructure.
        Let's expand upon the needed investments, A, observations.
    First, we need to maximize use of underutilized observations to
    realize the benefits of investments already made. Second, we
    need to add observational capacity to increase the detail and
    accuracy of Earth system measurements. For B, Earth system
    model, an Earth system model is a sophisticated forecast system
    that includes not only the atmosphere but the ocean, land
    surface, ice, air pollution, et cetera. The Earth system model
    is projected forward in time by supercomputers to produce
    weather forecasts and seasonal outlooks. Thus, we advocate that
    current models need to upgrade to Earth system models to enable
    more accurate forecasts on all timescales.
        Here are some of the investments needed here. One,
    accelerate development of Earth system models by supporting
    research on the physical interactions among all its various
    components.
        Two, use of Earth system models cannot be done without
    first determining the biases and errors in these models. This
    process must be done for all forecast systems.
        Three, develop improved storm scale models to forecast
    hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, wildfire
    evolution, and storm surge.
        And four, continue to invest in the Earth Prediction
    Innovation Center, or EPIC, to incentivize and support external
    partners to conduct research to improve NOAA's weather forecast
    systems.
        And C, high-performance computing. None of the increases in
    weather forecast skill over the past 50 years would have been
    possible without high-performance computing, or HPC. The
    weather community thanks Congress for recent HPC allocations,
    but there are still three problems. One, the allocations are
    often done via supplements and not via a sustained annual
    investment.
        Two, research HPC capacity lags operational HPC, whereas it
    should be at least three times greater.
        And three, U.S. HPC is still behind other global weather
    prediction centers. Thus, the following investments are needed
    in this area:
        One, expand HPC capacity by two orders of magnitude or 100
    times over the next 10 years.
        Two, concomitant investments in storage, transmission,
    access, security, and software engineering must also be made.
        And three, NOAA must prepare for future HPC architectures,
    develop a culture of rapid adaptation, and train a skilled work
    force.
        Finally, I note that six Department of Energy labs have
    already acquired or soon will acquire exascale computing
    systems, each of which is 25 to 50 times more powerful than all
    of NOAA's computer systems combined. Why can't NOAA get some of
    this exascale action? Thus, we encourage Congress and NOAA to
    be more ambitious in enhancing HPC capacity in order to better
    serve the American public. Thank you.
        [The prepared statement of Dr. Carr follows:]

    [GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]

        Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you, Dr. Carr. Next, I recognize
    Dr. Petty for five minutes.

                  TESTIMONY OF DR. KEVIN R. PETTY, VP,

           WEATHER AND EARTH INTELLIGENCE, SPIRE GLOBAL, INC.

        Dr. Petty. Chairwoman Sherrill, Ranking Member Bice, and
    Ranking Member Lucas, as well as the rest of the Members of the
    Subcommittee on Environment, thank you for allowing me the
    opportunity to speak with you about what is a very important
    topic for our Nation, priorities for weather research and
    forecasting.
        As part of my comments, I would like to share some high-
    level thoughts and perspectives on the Priorities for Weather
    Research report. I would also like to highlight the role of the
    private sector in achieving the desired outcomes of the report.
        However, first, I would like to convey why this topic is so
    important to me. I have essentially spent my entire career
    working in the weather enterprise. I have held positions in the
    public, private, and academic sectors. During this time, I've
    endeavored to promote and contribute to research and
    development efforts that result in significant improvements in
    weather analysis and forecasting.
        However, on December 30, 2021, this endeavor became quite
    personal. On that day, Colorado saw its most destructive
    wildfire in history, the Marshall Fire. The Marshall Fire,
    which was exacerbated by high winds and dry conditions, burned
    roughly 6,000 acres, destroyed over 1,000 homes and structures,
    and damaged nearly another 180, one of which was my home. We
    watched as entire neighborhoods burned to the ground in
    minutes. And to this day, my family remains displaced. Although
    we have made great strides in weather research and forecasting
    over the last several decades, there is still much to be done
    if we're going to prevent billion-dollar disasters such as this
    one.
        The Priorities for Weather Research report is a timely
    exemplary document that identifies and recommends investments
    designed to foster new and improved capabilities that can serve
    to reduce the number and severity of high-impact events such as
    the Marshall Fire. The report rightly expresses the fact that
    the scope of the investments necessary to support the
    advancement of weather for society is vast. Thus, it will be
    difficult for NOAA to make the material investments across all
    of the identified priority areas. Where it makes sense, NOAA
    should attempt to partner not only with the academic sector,
    but it should also make use of the competencies and resources
    found in the private sector. As the private sector has grown,
    so has its ability to carry out rigorous, high-quality research
    and development.
        For example, Spire made significant investments that led to
    the successful deployment of one of the world's largest
    multipurpose satellite constellations with over 100 satellites
    operationally in orbit today. This constellation delivers a
    rich and unique set of data about the atmosphere and Earth.
    Spire is proud to be a Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador, and
    it's honored to be a supplier of radio occultation data to NOAA
    through the Commercial Data Program. None of this would have
    been possible without Spire's willingness to invest in science
    and technology research.
        NOAA is and will remain a cornerstone of the weather
    enterprise. It serves as a catalyst in driving research and
    forecast investments to mitigate the impacts of weather, water,
    and climate extremes. It is crucial that NOAA's investments are
    strategic, particularly from the perspective of ensuring that
    our Nation is a global leader in weather prediction.
    Fundamentally, it is forecast accuracy and reliability that
    drive the effectiveness of downstream weather-related products,
    services, and solutions, including many offerings found in the
    private sector. NOAA should recognize and carefully consider
    its limitations and formulate a research and development
    investment strategy that includes clear tradeoffs.
        As part of its efforts, NOAA would benefit from identifying
    and acknowledging the investments and contributions being made
    by others in the weather enterprise. It should not run the risk
    of replicating such investments, nor should it risk diluting
    its investments to the point that tangible and sustained
    progress in key areas is limited or negated, especially for
    core areas associated with forecast accuracy and reliability.
    This will require strong leadership and an organizational
    culture that embraces a more well-defined and focused approach.
        Most importantly, NOAA's ability to effectively respond to
    the recommendations found in the report is rooted in its
    ability to create strong, long-lasting partnerships. By doing
    so, our great Nation will be able to recognize the full power
    and extent of the weather enterprise and what it has to offer.
        Thank you for this opportunity to share this testimony. I
    hope you found it helpful. And I welcome any questions or
    comments you may have.
        [The prepared statement of Dr. Petty follows:]

    [GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]

        Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you, Dr. Petty.
        So at this point, we will begin our first round of
    questions, and I recognize myself for five minutes.
        Unfortunately, New Jersey is no stranger to catastrophic
    flooding events, as demonstrated recently by Hurricane Ida.
    However, large-scale events are not the only weather concern in
    my district. As I mentioned in my opening statement, the
    Northeast Regional Climate Center predicts that by the end of
    this century, precipitation will increase by as much as 50
    percent. These changes in precipitation area flooding are
    already being felt by the residents in my district.
        And I recently introduced the PRECIP Act, which passed in
    the House, and will direct NOAA to update out-of-date
    precipitation data that can be utilized for decisionmaking in
    extreme weather events such as hurricanes, as well as for more
    long-term decisions, such as buying a home in a flood zone.
    NOAA's Precipitation Grand Challenge aligns with this goal.
    Among other targets, it aims to update weather models to
    provide timely and accurate forecasts that can be utilized by
    citizens to make crucial decisions.
        Dr. Colman, as a Member of NOAA's Science Advisory Board,
    you have experience with their weather modeling framework. How
    will investments into NOAA's weather research assist the agency
    in their work to update precipitation data and meet this grand
    challenge? What work do you needs to be done in collaborating
    with other members of the weather enterprise to ensure that
    this data meets end users in a timely and accessible way?
        Dr. Colman. Thank you, Chairwoman Sherrill, for the
    question. It's a complicated answer in my mind. The return
    frequency of events and the shift in probabilities of events,
    as we move through this period of climate change, are difficult
    to measure and ultimately require a collaboration across many
    different entities and sectors. Certainly, as we move into the
    next generation of models, as Dr. Carr presented about Earth
    system modeling, one aspect is the reanalysis and reforecasting
    piece, which I mentioned and emphasized how critical it is to
    successfully develop these new models. This work will give us
    insights into the distribution of events and the evolution of
    events as we move forward. So investing in the model and
    associated infrastructure is primary, but it goes into
    statistical analyses as well, and how you do the analyses to
    attribute different events to different causes.
        Yes, maybe I'll stop there.
        Chairwoman Sherrill. Well, thank you, Dr. Colman.
        And, Dr. Glenn, as a New Jersey resident, you are familiar
    with the devastation that hurricanes like Sandy, and more
    recently, Ida caused New Jersey due to extreme precipitation.
    How would advancing research related to the total water level
    support improvements to weather forecasting overall? How would
    the updates to probable maximum precipitation and Atlas 14
    estimates like what is included in PRECIP--in my PRECIP and the
    FLOODS Act relate to this work?
        Dr. Glenn. Thank you, Chairwoman Sherrill. Total water
    level is the critical piece of this because we see with
    hurricanes and storms, they're traveling slower, there's more
    rain involved with them, with the warming ocean, there's more
    moisture in the atmosphere. And so improving all these models
    is one of the very important pieces of this. That improvement
    over and over again, you'll see through the PWR report, comes
    through several levels. One is the observations that are made
    there to improve our understanding of the processes.
    Precipitation is a very hard process to forecast. It's like
    hurricane intensity. These are the two important pieces that--
    the two critical pieces. How do we get the hurricane intensity
    right? How do we get the quantitative precipitation right?
    That's why there's those grand challenges.
        So critical pieces of that, especially for a place like New
    Jersey, whereas we look at the climate projections and we see
    that storms are going to be more slower moving, there's going
    to be more heavy rainfall, there's going to be stronger winds.
    So the stronger winds will produce more storm surge, the
    heavier rains will produce more flooding from the rivers, and
    so the combination of New Jersey being in the middle of that,
    you know, ocean water coming from the ocean side, the river
    water coming from the other side, so it's a very important
    piece to get the total water level right. In Sandy, there was
    so much of this discussion to figure out how much was from the
    ocean and how much was from the rivers. Thank you.
        Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you and I'll--very quickly
    because I just have a few minutes. A lot of States are
    undertaking their own research initiatives such as New Jersey's
    DEP (Department of Environmental Protection). So, Dr. Glenn,
    can you comment on how regional climate modeling like the
    efforts of New Jersey can help communities and businesses
    prepare and adapt to the extreme weather impacts of climate
    change?
        Dr. Glenn. Sure, thank you, Chairwoman Sherrill. The
    regional models that we are, you know, considering for the for
    the New Jersey area, they're--the critical piece here is that,
    you know, the sea level is rising for many reasons. In our
    area, we have the subsidence of the land, which is also very
    important, and plus that rise that just changes the baseline.
    And so that's very important for our area. The changes in the
    rainfall are very important. And the changes in the storm
    frequency are very important. So you consider those three
    pieces adding up together is an important part of this.
        Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you, Dr. Glenn. And, sorry, I
    kind of cheated. I got you right at the end. And you didn't
    have as much time----
        Dr. Glenn. It's OK.
        Chairwoman Sherrill [continuing]. But we can also add some
    questions for the record.
        At this point, I would like to recognize the Ranking Member
    of the Subcommittee Mrs. Bice for five minutes.
        Mrs. Bice. Thank you.
        Several reports show that only a small fraction of
    satellite data we currently collect is utilized by forecast
    models. Dr. Petty, what are your thoughts on how we can extract
    more value from this significant amount of existing satellite
    data?
        Dr. Petty. Thank you, Ranking Member Bice. I think that's
    an excellent question from the standpoint that as the report,
    which is an excellent report, calls out, we need to continue to
    do work on data assimilation. And data assimilation is a key
    aspect of how we gain an initial understanding of the state of
    the atmosphere. So as we forecast that atmosphere future in
    time or forward in time, those forecasts become better. Through
    data assimilation, and through investments of data
    assimilation, we will be able to take more and better advantage
    of those satellite observations.
        I will also just quickly add that as we move forward in
    time, there are opportunities to improve those satellite
    observations. And so as we identify gaps and determine how to
    fill those gaps, satellite platforms will be one component of
    that, along with terrestrial observations.
        Mrs. Bice. And when you say--when you talk about data
    assimilation, what is the best way to do that? Are you talking
    academia, private industry? What do you feel like is a good
    pathway for that?
        Dr. Petty. Yes, I think that, that pathways across the
    board, the report points out some efforts to bring the
    community get together through aspects of things like JEDI
    (Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration), which is a
    data assimilation initiative. Through that initiative, we're
    bringing the academic sector together, along with the public
    sector and the private sector. Some people don't recognize that
    even in the private sector, there are teams doing data
    assimilation. So that's an opportunity as well, to bring these
    scientists together to work on the best solutions.
        Mrs. Bice. Thank you. In the coming weeks, I'll be
    introducing a bill that codifies and expands the National
    Mesonet Program. The goal is to encourage and incentivize more
    States to build out or upgrade their systems so that we can
    have more mesoscale data across the country. Dr. Carr, given
    your familiarity with the Oklahoma Mesonet, how can we--how can
    more mesonet observation supplement--wow, I'm off today. Dr.
    Carr, given your familiarity with the Oklahoma Mesonet, how can
    more mesonet observations supplement, improve, and add value to
    the satellite data we currently have? I think your microphone
    may be turned off, Dr. Carr.
        Dr. Carr. I don't know if I ever had it on. Can I have the
    5 minutes? No, anyway, I think that's a great question. I'm
    glad to hear that--what you're about to propose. I think we
    have 30-something States with mesonets now all trying to match
    the gold standard that the Oklahoma Mesonet sets, so getting
    all the States on board would be great.
        I think the most important addition that we could add is to
    add the third dimension to the mesonet program. So they're
    starting now, but, you know, there's tens of thousands of
    surface measurements all over the United States. But as soon as
    you go up 100 meters, there's almost nothing. There's 70
    radiosondes, you know, weather balloon stations. So we really
    need to increase the third dimension and add observing systems
    like profiling, vertical profiling networks to measure
    temperature and moisture and wind in the lowest--what we call
    the lowest mile of the atmosphere. We call it the boundary
    layer. So an increase in measurements in the lowest levels of
    the atmosphere in a three-dimensional way would be the most
    important thing we could do.
        Mrs. Bice. Thank you. As all of you know, NOAA is
    developing and releasing a user-friendly Community Earth System
    Model. There is also progress toward standing up the Earth
    Prediction Innovation Center, EPIC, which addresses the
    research-to-operations challenge by requiring NOAA to leverage
    expertise across the broader weather enterprise. How can
    capabilities like the Community Earth System Model and EPIC be
    most easily leveraged by academic institutions for research and
    education? That's open to any of you.
        Dr. Carr. Yes, I was very involved in the creation of EPIC.
    So it's got a great start. We have Raytheon, who got the first
    contract, and they have a lot of task orders to provide
    computer support and move the codes to the cloud, provide user
    support. But what's missing in that contract is that we want
    the community and the private sector and everyone to be
    involved in improving the models, but there's no funding for
    this community. So Raytheon is doing its tasks on users and
    computer support, technical support, which is really important
    because we're short on software engineering that they have. But
    in order for the community to be involved, the private sector
    partners and the academic partners need funding to do the
    research needed to improve the models.
        Mrs. Bice. Thank you for the witnesses for being here this
    morning, and I yield back.
        Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you. And I'd like to bring to
    the Subcommittee's attention a letter for the record from PJM
    Interconnection, LLC. PJM is the Nation's largest regional
    transmission organization, responsible for ensuring the
    reliability of the high voltage electric grid and planning the
    expansion of the transmission grid. PJM is regulated by the
    Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and serves all or parts of
    the States of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland,
    Virginia, North Carolina, West Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky,
    Tennessee, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, and the District of
    Columbia. This letter highlights the importance of NOAA's
    activities as a critical input to PJM's work in ensuring the
    reliable operation of the electric power grid.
        So without objection, I am placing these documents in the
    record.
        Next, I would like to recognize Congresswoman Bonamici for
    five minutes.
        Ms. Bonamici. Thank you so much, Chair Sherrill and Ranking
    Member Bice, for hosting this hearing, and thank you to our
    witnesses.
        We know that weather events are increasing in frequency and
    severity because of climate change, and in the past few years,
    northwest Oregon has experienced lethal heat waves and
    devastating wildfires. We also continue to prepare for a
    potentially catastrophic seismic event off our coastline.
        I worked in the past with Ranking Member Lucas and others
    on the historic and bipartisan Weather Research and Forecasting
    Innovation Act, which is intended to improve weather
    forecasting and increase Federal weather coordination.
        Dr. Glenn, how can improved weather forecasting prepare
    communities for severe weather events? And how can improved
    weather modeling deepen our understanding of the consequences
    of climate change?
        Dr. Glenn. Thank you, Congresswoman, for that question. So
    how can we help the communities prepare? The third pillar of
    the whole weather enterprise was the information delivery piece
    of that. That's the critical piece that often gets left off the
    table, right? Many of the priorities come up at the beginning
    of the value chain, at the getting the data to improve our
    understanding, improving the model and all that. But then we
    have to communicate with those communities.
        And so we see how that's done in places like the Hurricane
    Center or something like that, where they had that trusted
    relationship with the emergency managers, and they have the
    ensemble of guidance that is guiding them. And so we talked to
    those hurricane centers, and they say, improve the accuracy of
    those ensemble models. That's the first step that you have to
    do. And so that's why you always hear us talking about that as
    that first step.
        And then that second step is building that trust with the
    emergency managers that have the real-time data coming in so
    they can choose this is the ensemble piece and then this is the
    piece that we want to communicate.
        And then there's all the research on how you communicate
    with those groups that has to be funded at some point so that
    we can understand their needs and bring them back. And that's
    how the requirements flow back through the whole weather
    enterprise. And so there's this important research on how we
    communicate, especially in probabilistic forecasts and the
    longer-term forecasts.
        Ms. Bonamici. I appreciate that. And I remember, and I'm
    sure Mr. Lucas does as well, all the conversations about the
    social science of communication and making sure that the
    message is clear and urgent.
        So, Dr. Carr, your testimony and findings from the NOAA
    study indicate that immediate investments in our weather work
    force are needed to fill existing gaps so that, in the future,
    the Nation can rely on a highly technical and diverse work
    force trained in modern weather forecasting techniques. So, Dr.
    Carr, what is the existing pipeline for the weather work force,
    and where is further investment needed? What steps can we take
    to make sure this work force can be effectively mobilized
    during times of crisis?
        Dr. Carr. OK, thank you. For that question, a couple of
    aspects to that. One is, is that the research that we talk
    about that is needed also helps the work force issue so that
    the professors, researchers have graduate students, and these
    become the future work force. So when something is really
    technical like data assimilation, if we provide more research
    to work with NOAA on this issue and you have more graduate
    students and postdocs, that will increase the work force.
        We, of course, need a lot of software engineering from the
    computer science component of universities and the private
    sector. And the issue there is they're very expensive for a
    government to hire. The private sector will always pay software
    engineers more, so we need a way for NOAA to have an entity
    like EPIC that can hire software engineers maybe at the going
    rate and then help with the IT (information technology) aspect
    of that problem.
        Ms. Bonamici. Does anybody else have thoughts on how we can
    bolster the work force? I have 30 seconds left. Dr. Petty?
        Dr. Petty. Yes, absolutely. I think kind of following on to
    what Dr. Carr has said, utilizing those funds to build
    partnerships, so, for example, when I talk about the private
    sector, the private sector is really looking at those
    partnerships, hey, we can have interns who can be a part of the
    private sector and learn the technology, learn the research so
    that we're working together to build that work force. And I
    think that's an important approach.
        Ms. Bonamici. I appreciate that. And as I yield back, Madam
    Chair, I just want to note as well the important issue of the
    high-performance computing. And I know this Committee has
    worked on quantum initiatives and others that are so important
    to this issue. Thank you. I yield back.
        Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you. And I now recognize the
    Ranking Member of the Full Committee, Mr. Lucas, for five
    minutes.
        Mr. Lucas. Thank you, Chairwoman. And I'm going to address
    my question the entire panel. As I mentioned in my testimony,
    this Committee will be charged with reauthorizing the Weather
    Act during the next Congress. The report you've highlighted
    today will undoubtedly inform our deliberations as we think
    ahead on the topic. Given your respective roles in crafting
    this report, would each of you highlight one recommendation for
    this Committee as we consider topics to address in the upcoming
    Weather Act? Just one, and I don't care who starts. And if we
    have enough time, everybody, our way, gentleman.
        Dr. Petty. I'll be happy to start. My recommendation is
    found in the report, and that is enhancing our observations,
    particularly observations of the boundary layer. That's a
    critical component that we're missing as part of our data
    assimilation or modeling to make our forecast better.
        Mr. Lucas. Dr. Glenn?
        Dr. Glenn. Thank you. I was also going to focus on
    observations. I think that's a critical part, the Earth systems
    observations. Many of our networks have been started, have
    demonstrated value, but they're incomplete, especially our
    ocean-observing networks. And so completing the existing ones,
    as we expand out to the new ones that are needed by the new
    Earth systems models, would be what I would highlight.
        Dr. Colman. Yes, thank you for the question. As we tried to
    point out in the report, we don't feel it's one simple answer.
    It's got to be across the whole board. Having said that, I will
    call out the information delivery piece. As I mentioned in my
    testimony, there is an increasing gap between what we're able
    to produce, the numerical models, and the--what the forecasters
    then produce and send out than what people are getting and
    understanding. And we see that in day-to-day weather events
    where people take the wrong action. And we really need to put
    that investment in the behavioral and social sciences upfront
    and make sure we're getting all of the benefit from the other
    investments in the pipeline itself.
        We have underserved and vulnerable populations that--
    different languages that do not get--currently get the right
    information and communications. We can't overstate the
    importance of making sure we complete that process so that they
    all benefit from the investments that all of you are willing to
    do.
        Mr. Lucas. Dr. Carr?
        Dr. Carr. Yes, so I'll speak up for the computing because
    as we add more observation capacity, get billions more
    observations from satellites, which are already planned to go
    up, as we increase the sophistication of the models and improve
    data assimilation and have more ensembles and increase our
    resolution, you can't do any of that without having the
    computing power necessary to accomplish it.
        Mr. Lucas. Along that line, Dr. Carr, continuing with you,
    and clearly it's a concern of several of us on this Committee,
    how did the problem develop? Did we just not make the right
    investments at the key moment? How did we get to this point
    where we need to catch up when it comes to computing power
    issues?
        Dr. Carr. Well, that's a complicated issue. I think we've
    always been a little bit behind. And the procurement process
    takes a long time so that by the time you get a new system,
    there's always systems that are already 10 times faster. And
    so--and maybe that is the way it is, but the Department of
    Energy somehow manages to get investments so that they can have
    exascale systems for at least six of their laboratories. And,
    as I said in my testimony, I think we should be more ambitious
    and see if NOAA can become the second place in the country to
    develop exascale computing capacity. I think you just need to
    be ambitious and want it, as well as have the resources.
        Mr. Lucas. And I would note for the record, sometimes our
    questions may seem repetitive, but we as Members tend to hone
    in on the information that you provide us. We're directed
    toward the points you make, and such as the computing issue
    with additional questions, we tend to reinforce where the body
    of this institution needs to go. Your testimony matters more
    than you can possibly imagine on occasions like this.
        With that, I yield back, Madam Chair.
        Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you, Mr. Lucas. And I think we
    have time for another round of questions, so I'll recognize
    myself for five minutes.
        Dr. Carr, you talked about underutilized observations, and
    I wonder if you could go in--a little bit into that. You also
    mentioned sustained versus supplemental funding. And it sounds
    as if--and Dr. Glenn could probably attest to that--a lot of
    the work we've done has been based on the Sandy Supplemental
    and now we have the Ida Supplemental. If you could talk a
    little bit, and then if you want to weigh in, Dr. Glenn, about
    sustained versus supplemental funding, how the supplemental
    funding has impacted your research, but then the problematic
    issues related to not sustained funding. So if you could just
    start with the underutilized observations you were talking
    about, what those are?
        Dr. Carr. Yes. So with respect to--there's two aspects to
    underutilized. One is there's a tremendous amount of surface
    network observations out there, and then a lot of them are not
    government. So there's this big effort under the National
    Mesonet Program, to try to gather together all of the service
    networks that are produced by local and State agencies and
    there's just thousands of them out there. So we're working to
    get----
        Chairwoman Sherrill. So since I just have a quick period of
    time, so you're talking State and local organizations because I
    know Dr. Petty also mentioned other opportunities, but my
    understanding is a lot of the private source of weather
    information is proprietary. And would that be more difficult to
    share with the government?
        Dr. Carr. It could be, but it is being done. And so, in
    fact, the Nation's Lightning Network is totally private, and
    NOAA buys those data. So--and the National Mesonet Program is
    in the process of buying a lot of the surface data because they
    see that it's worthwhile. And then with satellites, as Dr.
    Petty mentioned, there's just so many instruments and so many
    channels producing so much high-resolution data. So every day,
    about--hundreds of millions of observations are produced by
    satellites, maybe billions, but the models will use about
    300,000 of them so--because there's so much that we just have
    to learn how to better use them. And that's what we mean by
    better utilization of satellite data. And as we increase the
    resolution in our models, we'll be able to use more of it. And
    we need to have more sophistication in the data assimilation.
        And I think the other issue was----
        Chairwoman Sherrill. Funding.
        Dr. Carr [continuing]. Funding. Yes, the problem with
    supplementals is that they're great, they buy us new computers,
    but it's impossible to do long-range planning because we just
    don't have the--the annual appropriation is just too little to
    plan for a really ambitious--the really ambitious computer
    power that we need. So it's basically a long-range issue--the
    ability to do long-range planning.
        Chairwoman Sherrill. And Dr. Glenn, if you could talk a
    little bit about--because it sounds like the year leaves too
    little, what the supplemental enables you to do as far as
    weather research.
        Dr. Glenn. I think the Sandy Supplemental was an excellent
    example of how some of these things can get done. The Sandy
    Supplemental replaced damaged infrastructure, 17 HF (high
    frequency) radars that were gone that we use for search and
    rescue every day off the coast. It helped with operations of
    getting our gliders that Ranking Member Bice talked about out
    to sea. But what it also supported was the research that helped
    with the fundamental understanding that started this 10-year
    activity of working with the Hurricane Center and the groups
    like Environmental Modeling Center, that got me here to this
    meeting today. It was through that Sandy Supplemental that that
    research happened. And that research is being put into
    operations now. The problem with the operational support for
    these new activities is that it is also in supplementals. And
    this year, we are in between supplementals so that hurricane
    glider fleet that you were talking about is going to be much
    reduced this year when we expect an overactive hurricane
    season.
        Chairwoman Sherrill. Thank you. I yield back. Mrs. Bice, do
    you have any further questions?
        Mrs. Bice. One additional question. Dr. Carr, you are very
    familiar with the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma.
    Since its opening in 2006, it has brought together all aspects
    of the weather enterprise, including NOAA researchers, faculty
    from the University of Oklahoma, local forecasters, and the
    Oklahoma Mesonet office. How has this model of having different
    components of the weather enterprise under one roof resulted in
    better research?
        Dr. Carr. Thank you, Ranking Member Bice, for that
    question. Yes, so I obviously was very involved in the planning
    and building of the weather center. And we have about 11
    weather entities in there, including the School of Meteorology,
    with its 300 students and 100 graduate students. And I think
    it's really beneficial for those students to be in the place
    where the weather knowledge is being put into practice in the
    Weather Service Forecast Office. And the building is designed
    so that people can run into each other. The students run into
    people who wrote their textbooks, they run into the
    practitioners, the forecasters, they run into the research.
    They get to have internships and student assistant positions.
    So it's just wonderful for our students because I would imagine
    by the time they're seniors, probably over 75 percent of our
    students have some kind of student employment in one center or
    the other, the Mesonet or the NSSL (National Severe Storms
    Laboratory), and that's just a fantastic thing for our
    students.
        Mrs. Bice. And do you think this is something that we
    should be looking at more collectively as we look to the future
    for weather research, these types of models where you're
    bringing everyone together under one roof?
        Dr. Carr. Well, yes, I think there's a half a dozen other
    universities who are co-located with their National Weather
    Service forecast office. I would certainly encourage more of
    that. And anytime you have a NOAA laboratory--they do have
    these cooperative institutes, and there's quite a few NOAA
    cooperative institutes that are co-located with universities.
    And so that model is working well, so I think we should
    continue to support our cooperative institutes.
        Mrs. Bice. Excellent. Thank you, Madam Chair. I yield back.
        Chairwoman Sherrill. Well, thank you.
        Before we bring the hearing to a close, I want to thank our
    witnesses for testifying before the Committee today. The record
    will remain open for two weeks for additional statements from
    the Members and for any additional questions the Committee may
    ask of the witnesses. The witnesses are excused, and the
    hearing is now adjourned.
        [Whereupon, at 11:08 a.m., the Subcommittee was adjourned.]

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