    [Senate Hearing 116-106]
    [From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]

                                                       S. Hrg. 116-106

                      U.S.-VENEZUELA RELATIONS AND THE PATH TO
                             A DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION

    =======================================================================

                                    HEARING

                                   BEFORE THE

                            SUBCOMMITTEE ON WESTERN
                           HEMISPHERE, TRANSNATIONAL
                           CRIME, CIVILIAN SECURITY,
                            DEMOCRACY, HUMAN RIGHTS,
                           AND GLOBAL WOMEN'S ISSUES

                                     OF THE

                         COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
                              UNITED STATES SENATE

                         ONE HUNDRED SIXTEENTH CONGRESS

                                 FIRST SESSION

                                   __________

                                  MARCH 7, 2019

                                   __________

           Printed for the use of the Committee on Foreign Relations

    [GRAPHIC NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]

                       Available via the World Wide Web:
                             http://www.govinfo.gov

                                    __________

                        U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE
    38-975 PDF                  WASHINGTON : 2020

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                     COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS

                    JAMES E. RISCH, Idaho, Chairman
    MARCO RUBIO, Florida                 ROBERT MENENDEZ, New Jersey
    RON JOHNSON, Wisconsin               BENJAMIN L. CARDIN, Maryland
    CORY GARDNER, Colorado               JEANNE SHAHEEN, New Hampshire
    MITT ROMNEY, Utah                    CHRISTOPHER A. COONS, Delaware
    LINDSEY GRAHAM, South Carolina       TOM UDALL, New Mexico
    JOHNNY ISAKSON, Georgia              CHRISTOPHER MURPHY, Connecticut
    JOHN BARRASSO, Wyoming               TIM KAINE, Virginia
    ROB PORTMAN, Ohio                    EDWARD J. MARKEY, Massachusetts
    RAND PAUL, Kentucky                  JEFF MERKLEY, Oregon
    TODD, YOUNG, Indiana                 CORY A. BOOKER, New Jersey
    TED CRUZ, Texas
                  Christopher M. Socha, Staff Director
                Jessica Lewis, Democratic Staff Director
                        John Dutton, Chief Clerk

                  SUBCOMMITTEE ON WESTERN HEMISPHERE,
           TRANSNATIONAL CRIME, CIVILIAN SECURITY, DEMOCRACY,
                HUMAN RIGHTS, AND GLOBAL WOMEN'S ISSUES

                     MARCO RUBIO, Florida, Chairman
    ROB PORTMAN, Ohio                    BENJAMIN L. CARDIN, Maryland
    TED CRUZ, Texas                      TOM UDALL, New Mexico
    CORY GARDNER, Colorado               JEANNE SHAHEEN, New Hampshire
    JOHN BARRASSO, Wyoming               TIM KAINE, Virginia

                                  (ii)

                               C O N T E N T S

                                  ----------
                                                                       Page

    Rubio, Hon. Marco, U.S. Senator From Florida.....................     1
    Risch, Hon. James E., U.S. Senator From Idaho....................     2
    Cardin, Hon. Ben, U.S. Senator From Maryland.....................    11
    Menendez, Hon. Bob, U.S. Senator From New Jersey.................    13
    Abrams, Hon. Elliott, Special Representative for Venezuela, U.S.
      Department of State, Washington, DC............................    15
        Prepared statement...........................................    16
    Green, Hon. Mark, Administrator, U.S. Agency for International
      Development, Washington, DC....................................    18
        Prepared statement...........................................    20
    Arnson, Cynthia J., Director, Latin America Program, Woodrow
      Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, DC.......    38
        Prepared statement...........................................    40
    Farnsworth, Eric, Vice President, Council of the Americas,
      Washington, DC.................................................    44
        Prepared statement...........................................    46

                  Additional Material Submitted for the Record

    Detenciones Arbitarias de Periodistas en Venezuela...............     7
    PAHO Submittal...................................................    60

                                     (iii)

        U.S.-VENEZUELA RELATIONS AND THE PATH TO A DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION

                                  ----------

                            THURSDAY, MARCH 7, 2019

      U.S. Senate, Subcommittee on Western Hemisphere,
    Transnational Crime, Civilian Security, Democracy,
               Human Rights, and Global Women's Issues,
                                Committee on Foreign Relations,
                                                        Washington, DC.
        The subcommittee met, pursuant to notice, at 10:03 a.m. in
    Room SD-419, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Hon. Marco Rubio,
    chairman of the subcommittee, presiding.
        Present: Senators Rubio [presiding], Risch, Gardner,
    Barrasso, Cruz, Cardin, Menendez, Shaheen, Udall, and Kaine.

                OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. MARCO RUBIO,
                       U.S. SENATOR FROM FLORIDA

        Senator Rubio. Good morning. I would like to welcome you to
    the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on the
    Western Hemisphere, Transnational Crime, Civilian Security,
    Democracy, Human Rights, and Global Women's Issues. We have a
    huge portfolio in this subcommittee.
        But today's hearing is about the United States and
    Venezuela and the path to a democratic transition. Obviously,
    it is timely and it is urgent.
        We have two panels today. On the first panel we are going
    to hear from two witnesses from the executive branch, the
    Honorable Mark Green, who is the Administrator at USAID, and
    the Honorable Elliott Abrams, who is our U.S. Special
    Representative for Venezuela. We thank you both for taking the
    time to be here. I know our members are very interested in this
    topic.
        We will have a second panel of non-government experts, Mr.
    Eric Farnsworth, the Vice President of the Council of the
    Americas, and Dr. Cynthia Arnson, the Director of the Wilson
    Center's Latin America Program.
        I want to thank all of you for being here. Eric was with us
    last year around this time, in April, speaking about the Summit
    of the Americas. I want to thank him for joining us again, and
    so forth.
        And before I go to my opening remarks, the Chairman of the
    full committee is with us, Senator Risch, and his leadership on
    the committee is off to a great start, and I wanted to
    recognize him for some remarks at the outset.

                   STATEMENT OF HON. JAMES E. RISCH,
                        U.S. SENATOR FROM IDAHO

        The Chairman. Well, thank you very much, Chairman Rubio,
    for holding this subcommittee hearing. It is one of what I hope
    will be many. In consultation with yourself, as you know, and
    with the other subcommittee chairmen, we are encouraging having
    these kind of hearings that are able to drill down better than
    the whole committee can on specific issues regarding specific
    regions.
        My hope is, and I know I share this with you, that this
    hearing will underscore our support for the Venezuelan people
    and for the legitimate president of Venezuela, Juan Guaido. I
    think our friends in the media would be very helpful, as we try
    to transition towards much more stability there, to refer to
    Mr. Maduro as the ex-president of Venezuela and not as the
    president. There is only one president of Venezuela right now,
    and that is Juan Guaido.
        The Venezuelan people are to be commended for using the
    rule of law to transition, as civilized people do. Section 233
    of the constitution provided for a way to make a change. They
    have done so. They have done so properly. They have done so
    under rule of law, as civilized people do, and we in America
    want to recognize that and extend our appreciation for that,
    and do all we can to help the Venezuelan people accomplish what
    they set out to do under Section 233 of the constitution.
        Finally, let me say that this is not a partisan issue. This
    is a bipartisan issue. I think everyone recognizes it, and we
    need to pursue it in that vein.
        So again, thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. I am here to
    support you in your efforts to do this.
        Senator Rubio. Thank you for coming this morning.
        So, I want to begin my remarks by answering the question of
    why should we care. It is the most important question that we
    must always answer anytime the U.S. takes a foreign policy
    step. Why should America care about what is happening? In
    particular, why should America care about what is happening in
    Venezuela and democracy and the support for the interim
    government of President Juan Guaido?
        Let me begin by saying the first reason is that the
    humanitarian, political, and economic crisis is not just a
    Venezuelan crisis. It is a regional crisis. Since the year
    2014, 3.4 million, by many estimates, Venezuelans have fled
    Venezuela. That is 10 percent of the nation's population that
    has left the country.
        As a point of reference, it would be the equivalent--if we
    said 10 percent of the U.S. population had left over five
    years, it would be the equivalent of every person living in
    Florida, Maryland, and Massachusetts leaving the country over a
    five-year period.
        Beyond that, over 80 percent of them have migrated into the
    region, into Latin America. About half of them are in Colombia,
    in one country. Today, Colombia in particular, but also Peru
    and Ecuador, are bearing the brunt of the cost of this mass
    migration.
        Further exacerbating it is that the United Nations has
    already projected that if all things continue on the current
    path, this year alone--and I mean the current path before the
    events of January--they estimated that this year alone another
    2 million Venezuelans will leave the country. And I am here to
    tell you that if another 2 million people leave, on top of the
    3.4 million that have already left, and 80 percent of them stay
    in Latin America, it will deteriorate and potentially collapse
    the public services of Colombia and severely impact the same in
    Peru and in Ecuador and in other nations.
        This has the potential to be a regional catastrophe of epic
    proportions. It is already at that level. And that is reason
    alone to care about it, because the United States will be
    directly impacted by that, in particular because of our close
    partnership with Colombia.
        The bottom line is if Maduro remains in power and things do
    not get better, it threatens to trigger a cataclysmic crisis in
    our closest ally at this moment in South America, in Colombia,
    our improving relationship with Ecuador, and our important
    partnership with Peru.
        The second reason why we should care is because the Maduro
    crime family, the Maduro regime, actively, not secretly, not
    covertly, actively participates in the trafficking of cocaine.
    Planes filled with cocaine operate out of Venezuelan airfields
    under the auspices and protection of the Venezuelan military,
    and they deliver cocaine to airstrips in Central America. That
    cocaine is then handed over to drug networks, drug networks
    that along the way destabilize El Salvador and Honduras and
    Guatemala, exacerbating the migratory patterns that we are
    seeing on our southern border. And then that cocaine enters the
    United States and winds up in our streets and in the hands of
    Americans, all under the auspices of the Maduro regime, who
    charges a fee for this service of escorting drug shipments out
    of Venezuela.
        By the way, if you do not pay them their fee, they shoot
    down your plane. If you pay them the fee, they get rich and you
    get to traffic cocaine, and we see the flights, and they are
    protected by them.
        The third reason we should care is that the Maduro regime
    provides safe harbor to terrorist groups like the ELN, the
    group that just killed over 20 police cadets in Colombia in a
    bombing, and they provide auspices and protection and safe
    harbor to other narco-terror groups. What I mean by that is
    these groups operate openly, openly in camps within Venezuelan
    territory, not hidden camps, not covert, clandestine camps,
    open camps that you can see from commercial satellite imagery,
    and they stage attacks against Colombia from Venezuela, and
    they too traffic in drugs destined for the United States, and
    they do all of this with the full support, the full cooperation
    and the protection of the Maduro regime, who, by the way, also
    gets a cut of those proceeds.
        The fourth reason we should care is that the regime has
    openly and repeatedly invited Russia and Vladimir Putin to
    conduct military operations in our hemisphere from their
    territory. They have offered them openly an air and naval base
    free of charge for the Russians to operate from. In fact, just
    a few months ago, two nuclear-capable Russian bombers flew a
    mission into the Caribbean Sea from an airbase in Venezuela.
        The fifth reason we should care is the Maduro crime family
    has close ties to the regime in Iran. In fact, even as we
    speak, Maduro is working to offer the Iranians tons of gold
    stolen from the gold reserves of Venezuela in exchange for
    Iranian projects and services, and there are no projects or
    services offered by the Iranian regime that are good for the
    United States.
        And sixth, as if we needed any more reasons to care, in
    their thirst for hard currency, the Maduro regime is
    irresponsibly, recklessly, and irreparably mining for gold to
    sell in global markets, and it is doing so in a way that is
    creating an irreversible ecological and environmental disaster
    in some of the most sensitive areas of Venezuela, and future
    Venezuelans and, frankly, the region will pay a price for this
    extraordinary economic catastrophe that has not received nearly
    enough attention.
        So, they are destabilizing our closest partners in South
    America; they are driving violence in Central America with the
    drugs that they are helping to ship, which is, of course,
    exacerbating illegal migration; they are pumping cocaine into
    our streets; they are providing Putin a military foothold in
    our hemisphere; they are providing gold to Iran; they are
    destroying the national environment. It is a very compelling
    reason to care about what is happening.
        The Maduro regime is a clear danger and threat to the
    national interests, and I would argue the national security, of
    the United States. This, sadly, is not a new issue for me. It
    has been in the news a lot lately, but I have been working on
    this topic, along with Senator Menendez, since as far back as
    2014, 2013, and we have been working closely and speaking out
    about this since that time.
        The situation grows more dire by the day. It is hard to
    imagine. Venezuela was once the wealthiest country in South
    America--not 100 years ago, not 50 years ago, but within the
    lifetime of everyone in this room.
        Now, the people of Venezuela are the subject of daily
    blackouts, empty store shelves, devastating shortages of food
    and medicine, and a dehumanizing scramble to survive. And lest
    anyone think this is the product of sanctions from the last
    four to six weeks, that is a fraud, that is a lie. This has
    been going on for years because they have stolen the money.
    They steal all of the money. None of the proceeds, none of the
    money they are making from any of this is going into the hands
    of anyone but a small group of cronies who live a life of
    luxury around the world--their families most certainly do--
    while the people of Venezuela suffer.
        These 3.4 million people who left Venezuela over the last
    five years left well before any sanctions imposed over the last
    five weeks. And previous to that, by the way, all of the
    sanctions were imposed on individuals, not on the government,
    not on the economy.
        In 2018, a study found that 90 percent of Venezuelans, an
    estimated 31 million people, live in poverty, and worse.
    Venezuelan citizens involuntarily lost, on average, 24 pounds
    in the previous year, which is a stunning statistic when all of
    their leaders are overweight. All the leaders of Venezuela are
    overweight, and yet the people, on average, are losing 24
    pounds in a year.
        Chronic infections and diseases are rampant, and hospitals
    lack adequate supplies to care for their patients. We have
    picture number one over there. It shows a malnourished child in
    Dr. Domingo Luciani Hospital in Caracas, Venezuela. These are
    images we are used to seeing in other regions in the world, not
    the Western Hemisphere. This is the condition of children who
    today are dying, dying in Venezuelan hospitals. The Pan
    American Health Organization has indicated that outbreaks of
    diphtheria, measles and malaria have spread in the country,
    which, by the way, also has a regional impact. Other areas of
    public health concerns also include HIV/AIDS patients who have
    been denied medications and are going to die if they do not
    receive delivery of those medications, not to mention an
    increase in maternal and infant mortality, limited access to
    medicines, and adequate care for people with life- threatening
    chronic conditions. Perhaps the most compelling of all is those
    in need of dialysis.
        Without objection, I would like to introduce for the record
    PAHO's response on the need to maintain an effective technical
    cooperation agenda in Venezuela and neighboring countries.
    These are important statistics to keep in mind.

        [The information referred to can be found at the end of
    this document:]

        Senator Rubio. Shortages of food and medicine and the total
    collapse of social services have created a humanitarian crisis
    and, as I mentioned earlier, migration flows that are
    destabilizing the entire region, including, as I have already
    mentioned, Venezuela's neighbors. I witnessed that firsthand in
    my visit to Colombia just two weeks ago.
        I would caution that over the next few weeks--and I say
    this with a sense of urgency that I cannot overstate--
    Venezuela, because of graft and corruption and the
    unwillingness of the Maduro regime to allow humanitarian aid to
    be delivered in the country by anyone, frankly, although they
    claim that they are open to it--they still deny that there is a
    humanitarian crisis despite compelling evidence to the
    contrary. Over the next few weeks, Venezuela is going to enter
    a period of suffering no nation in our hemisphere has
    confronted in modern history.
        As of today, Venezuela has about six or seven days left of
    fuel supplies, this in the most oil-rich country in the world,
    and this is because they have destroyed the domestic production
    capacity. Venezuela is just a handful of days away from running
    out of basic staples--wheat and corn meal and cooking oil--
    again because of complete and utter mismanagement. I assure
    you, none of the regime cronies are going to go hungry, but
    millions of Venezuelans will continue to grow hungry, and
    exacerbated in a way we have not seen.
        I regret to report that the suffering people of Venezuela
    are about to experience the most dramatic shortages they have
    ever faced, the implications of which we cannot fully predict,
    but none of it is due to any of the actions taken by the United
    States up to this point. It is entirely the result of the fact
    that its leaders have stolen literally everything they can get
    their hands on, and continue to do that to this very moment.
        The regime, in fact, has used the suffering as a political
    weapon. Forty-two percent of the people in Venezuela depend on
    a government food program they call CLAP. First of all, it is
    also the subject of corruption. That food is imported. The
    cronies steal a percentage of it to resell on the private
    market for their own profit, and then the rest is distributed
    to those who are compliant or loyal to the regime. So if you go
    to a Maduro rally, you get food. If you do not show up at the
    rally, you do not get your CLAP box. If you vote for Maduro,
    and they know how you voted, you get food. If you do not vote,
    or do not vote for him, you do not get food. They have used it
    as a weapon.
        This is why he objects to humanitarian aid, because he does
    not want to lose the leverage that he has over the people of
    Venezuela by using food and medicine against them as a weapon,
    and that is why the United States and our partners from around
    the world have provided and stationed food and medicine on the
    border, to try to avoid this humanitarian catastrophe, not to
    politicize it but to prevent the mass, not just human
    suffering, but additional mass migration that threatens to
    destabilize the region.
        And because denying people food is one of the ways the
    regime controls the population, that is why two weeks ago we
    watched the Maduro regime violently and brutally block food
    from entering the country. Any regime who is threatened by food
    and medicine, that tells you everything you need to know about
    them. They did not just block it, by the way; they burned it.
    They set it on fire. You see in picture number two a truck
    carrying humanitarian aid was burned on the Francisco de Paolo
    Santa Bridge, set on fire by armed criminal gangs of the Maduro
    regime; aid, by the way, that non-violent civilians begged them
    to allow in. In picture number three, right here before me, you
    see a woman kneeling in front of the National Guard officials,
    begging them to permit the entrance of humanitarian aid.
        The regime's response, by the way, was not just to use
    military force, but they have armed paramilitary gangs. They
    have armed these paramilitary gangs that operate in these
    little scooters. They have armed them, and they have done
    worse. They have armed felons. They have released felons from
    jail and told them to go out and kill people and earn your
    freedom that way.
        I want at this moment, with the indulgence of the
    committee, to watch just a brief, 30-second video. It is
    captioned in English. It is from a member of the Maduro
    military who crossed the border, and I want you to read the
    caption of what he says were their orders as he crossed the
    border.
        Senator Rubio. I declare myself loyal to Juan Guaido,
    President and Commander in Chief, Juan Guaido. The government
    wants to massacre the people. The government wants to massacre
    the people. The orders are to kill the people, to release the
    colectivos ``those are the armed gangs'' and ``release
    prisoners on the streets to attack the people.''
        That is not me saying it. That is not a U.S. politician
    saying it. That is a member of the armed forces of Venezuela
    saying it as he crossed the border. Their orders were to kill
    people.
        In fact, at one point what he says, he uses the term
    ``plomo,'' which means ``lead.'' Their orders were to use lead
    bullets against the people. That is what it means. And they
    have only grown more brazen since that day.
        For example, Univision reporter Jorge Ramos and his crew
    were detained, detained personally by Maduro, and their cameras
    seized, and to this day not returned, because they did not like
    the questions that they asked. They literally detained them,
    took their cameras, and have not released them to this day.
        Just yesterday, another U.S. journalist, Cody Weddle, was
    arrested by the military intelligence services in an early
    morning raid and held for 12 hours, and then put on an airplane
    and sent back.
        This is an effort to intimidate the press. This is an
    effort to send a message to the press: ``You report on things
    we do not like, this is how we are going to treat you.''
        In the month of January alone, Maduro has detained 24
    journalists, including the recent U.S. citizens detained for
    hours. I want to include a document in the record with the
    number of journalists that have been detained. They are from
    all over the world.
        And without objection, I want to introduce that into the
    record.
        [The information referred to follows:]

               Detenciones Arbitarias de Periodistas en Venezuela

    [GRAPHICS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]

        Senator Rubio. The OAS Secretary General has said, ``The
    systematic attack against the civilian population in Venezuela
    includes murders, imprisonment, and torture, and it is evident
    in the eyes of the international community that we are in the
    presence of crimes against humanity.''
        One of those civilians, who as of today has now spent 212
    days in jail, is Juan Ju Cozens, a 29-year-old member of the
    National Assembly, the democratically elected National
    Assembly, basically their unicameral, democratically elected
    legislative body. He is also a former Venezuelan student
    leader. He was dragged out of his home by masked thugs for
    simply voicing his opposition against the regime. His sister,
    Raphaela, who my office has been in close touch with, and who
    is also a student leader in her own right, is here with us
    today, and I wanted to take this moment to recognize her, and I
    thank her for joining us here today. She does so at great
    danger and personal risk, but that is how important the cause
    is for her and for the people she represents.
        Your presence, your voice in support of not just your
    brother but also the hundreds and thousands of political
    prisoners in Venezuela, is a testament to the suffering of the
    Venezuelan people and the injustice committed by the Maduro
    regime.
        Maduro does not do any of this on his own. It is done with
    the help of three specific nefarious actors: the enslaved
    island of Cuba's government, which has infiltrated all of their
    security forces and is in de facto control of the country--I am
    not exaggerating this; anyone who knows anything about this
    will tell you, Cuban agents are all through every level of that
    government; Russia, which continues to provide them with
    opportunity to evade sanctions and support them in
    international forums; and China, which goes around acting like
    they are the non-interference people but, in fact, are helping
    lead Maduro's effort to block the Internet.
        Among the tactics used by the regime--I have outlined it
    already--under the direction of Cuba, the armed gangs, known as
    the colectivos, these gangs have a presence in the Bolivar and
    Amazonas states, where the trafficking of illegal gold mining,
    as I said earlier, has devastated the environment and created
    unforeseen problems for the ailing economy. Picture number
    five, which is up here, is a picture of those armed gangs and
    how they use them in the streets of Venezuela.
        It was these gangs, along with elements of the military,
    that on the 23rd of February carried out a massacre whose toll
    is still not fully known, a massacre of members of Venezuela's
    indigenous communities on the border with Brazil who are
    seeking to help get humanitarian aid into the country.
        And that is our final picture, a picture of an injured
    Imona Indian, natives to the area, an indigenous community, who
    has been the subject of a massacre that history will write
    about and whose numbers we do not fully know. Unfortunately,
    that massacre has been largely ignored in the mainstream media
    outlets. As they open fire, the military and other irregular
    forces open fire on them and prevent the delivery of aid from
    the Brazilian border.
        But fortunately, the world is waking up to the true nature
    of this crisis. Fifty-four nations, not the United States
    alone, 54 nations, the vast majority of the nations of this
    hemisphere, including under the leadership of the Lima Group,
    which the United States is not even a member of but involves
    all the most important regional partners that we have, have
    recognized Juan Guaido as the legitimate interim president of
    Venezuela.
        Last week, the United States introduced a resolution at the
    U.N. Security Council supporting Interim President Juan Guaido
    and calling for free and fair elections. It was supported by a
    majority of the members of the Security Council. You can, of
    course, guess who vetoed it: China and Russia.
        Before I close, I want to recognize and thank the many,
    many Venezuelans, both in the U.S. and from abroad, who are
    here with us today. I know there are many that have traveled
    from my home state of Florida and many other parts of the
    United States, and I want to applaud your perseverance and your
    fight in this cause, and I would close with this message here
    in the room and to those watching elsewhere, especially those
    in Venezuela: Your fight for freedom and restoration of
    democracy is our fight, and the free world has not and will not
    forget you.
        Maduro's regime believes that he can wait us out. That has
    been his strategy all along: hold on, wait it out, the world
    will lose focus, they will stop paying attention, they will
    move on to other things, and the opposition will fracture.
        We are not going to forget about it. We are not going to
    lose attention. We will be on this as long as it takes and no
    matter how hard it is. It is in our national interest. It does
    honor to our legacy as a nation that believes in the dignity
    and human rights of all people, and it is something that we are
    strongly committed to, as I hope you will take away from
    today's hearing. There may be debates about tactics, but there
    is no debate, I believe, no real disagreement among our parties
    here in the United States that the people of Venezuela deserve
    far better than to be in the grips of a criminal organization,
    as they are today.
        With that, I want to introduce the ranking member, Senator
    Cardin.
        I know also that the ranking member of the full committee
    is here and has been very engaged, and I would open up to him,
    however you want to handle that.

                     STATEMENT OF HON. BEN CARDIN,
                       U.S. SENATOR FROM MARYLAND

        Senator Cardin. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        First, on behalf of the Democratic members, I want to
    congratulate you on your chairmanship of this subcommittee. I
    look forward to working with you.
        I very much appreciate that the very first hearing of our
    subcommittee is on Venezuela. Your comments, particularly your
    closing comments, I believe represent the consensus of both
    parties here on this committee, and that is that the Maduro
    regime has no legitimacy and that the Venezuelan people deserve
    a democratic government, a government that will protect their
    human rights.
        So I think this is the right hearing for us to start, and I
    look forward to working with you.
        I also appreciate the fact that you acknowledged Senator
    Menendez, the ranking member of the full committee, and when I
    complete my opening comments, I would ask that he be recognized
    for an opening statement.
        Senator Menendez has been our leader in this hemisphere. He
    has been our leader now globally, but he has been our leader in
    this hemisphere, and certainly his statements in regard to
    Venezuela echo and have been in the leadership of many of the
    statements that you have made in your opening statement.
        And lastly, let me thank the witnesses for their patience.
    We are a little bit more lengthy in our opening comments. I
    hope the Chairman will be tolerant of the clock today, because
    I do think the seriousness of the subject, the timeliness of
    the subject, and the importance of us working with the Trump
    Administration to help the people of Venezuela could not be
    more urgent. So I very much appreciate the importance of this
    subject.
        The Venezuelan people have suffered the consequences of
    this tragic manmade humanitarian and human rights crisis for
    far too long. Through their enduring resilience and
    perseverance, they have now had an historic opportunity to
    restore democracy, prosperity, and the rule of law to their
    country.
        Mr. Chairman, I wholeheartedly agree with your assessment
    of the staggering corruption, mismanagement, authoritarianism,
    and criminality used by the Maduro regime and his loyalists to
    oppress the people of Venezuela. Decades of slow erosion of
    democratic norms and human rights, along with the selfish
    motivations of a dictator, have precipitated this crisis.
        It is tragic that the Maduro regime would rather feed their
    own greed than allow millions of hungry Venezuelan children and
    families to access the food and humanitarian aid they
    desperately need.
        As you pointed out, the loss of body weight of the average
    Venezuelan is shocking, 24 pounds according to a study done in
    2017. It is called the Maduro diet. So while Maduro's inner
    circle enrich themselves with billions of dollars of ill-gotten
    funds, the Venezuelan people lack basic necessities. They live
    in fear of being killed, robbed, or kidnapped by criminal
    groups which operate with impunity, and even outright
    government approval, as you pointed out in your opening
    statement.
        Today, Caracas has the sad distinction of being the world's
    most dangerous city.
        Under these dire circumstances, the Venezuelans are fleeing
    their country in record numbers. An estimated 3 million have
    fled over the past five years, resulting in a refugee crisis
    unprecedented in this hemisphere. Our Latin American neighbors
    have given refuge to millions of fleeing Venezuelans, and I
    applaud their efforts. It has been extremely challenging for
    the surrounding countries. I had a chance to talk to
    Administrator Green about this yesterday, and it is incredible
    what the surrounding countries are doing in order to meet these
    needs.
        I am aware, Mr. Chairman, that your home State of Florida
    has also received fleeing Venezuelans. The crisis hits close to
    home for many of my constituents in Maryland, as well. This is
    truly a regional crisis affecting the entire hemisphere, as you
    pointed out.
        For all these reasons, both moral and practical, the crisis
    in Venezuela commands our attention. I support the U.S. and OAS
    and other donor efforts to provide humanitarian assistance to
    those in need, including Venezuelans who have fled their
    country. As I talked with Administrator Green yesterday, we can
    get access with regards to those that are outside of Venezuela,
    but within Venezuela it is much, much more difficult.
        I similarly support the use of economic tools like Global
    Magnitsky sanctions to target the Maduro regime's worst
    offenders. Targeted sanctions provide accountability and
    prevent criminals in the regime from using the banking system
    to hide their stolen assets. They do not want to keep their
    assets in Venezuela. They would like to be able to do that
    globally, and we can prevent that.
        I call on our partners to consider imposing their own
    Magnitsky-like sanctions on the Maduro regime to amplify the
    impact of the sanctions. Regime officials should not be allowed
    to hide the proceeds of their corruption overseas and send
    their family members to live abroad in luxury while their
    country starves.
        As we are well aware, there are also clear steps that the
    Maduro regime can take to get themselves de-listed from
    sanctions. Those currently keeping this illegitimate government
    in power and blocking aid from entering their country should
    know it is not too late to do the right thing.
        Our partners and allies in Latin America and worldwide have
    formed a powerful chorus calling for a peaceful return to
    democracy in Venezuela. More than 50 countries have joined us
    in recognizing the legitimacy of the Guaido government. I hope
    that others will continue to do so.
        The United States, along with our global partners, can help
    the interim government resolve the crisis peacefully so that
    the Venezuelan people can finally fully reclaim their country.
        I really do appreciate the witnesses that are here today. I
    really look forward to Mr. Abrams and Administrator Green. We
    thank you for your long service to our country and your
    continued service to our country.
        Mr. Chairman, with your permission, I would like to yield
    to the ranking member of the full committee, Senator Menendez.
        Senator Rubio. Senator Menendez?

                    STATEMENT OF HON. BOB MENENDEZ,
                      U.S. SENATOR FROM NEW JERSEY

        Senator Menendez. Well, let me start off by commending
    Senator Rubio, Chairman Rubio, and Senator Cardin for convening
    today's hearing. I think it is a critically important time to
    be talking about the Western Hemisphere. Nothing rises, in my
    mind, higher at this moment than Venezuela, and, of course,
    following that, Nicaragua, as well.
        And thank you, Administrator Green and Special Envoy
    Abrams, for being with us today.
        I think the one thing we should walk away from this hearing
    with today is that Democrats and Republicans are united as one
    on behalf of the people of Venezuela, on recognizing Interim
    President Juan Guaido as the legitimate interim president of
    Venezuela, and in our pursuit of democracy and human rights for
    the Venezuelan people.
        Venezuela is at a crossroads, one in which a dictator
    clings to power amidst the ruins of a failed state, and one in
    which democratic actors seek a peaceful transition and the
    reconstruction of their country and their society.
        The Maduro regime has inflicted widespread suffering on the
    Venezuelan people--I think the Chairman made his opening
    remarks very extensive on this question--from a manmade
    humanitarian crisis, to an economy in freefall, to the violence
    perpetrated by security forces, colectivos, and the regime's
    death squads.
        Maduro is a criminal dictator who has destroyed a country.
    His election and inauguration are illegitimate--not because we
    say it, but because the world says it--and his grip on power
    comes only from the oppression of his people, the assets he has
    stolen from them, and the military leaders he has paid for
    their loyalty.
        The fact that he is closely advised by Cuba and bankrolled
    by Russia and China only complicates matters.
        There is, however, a democratic process by which members of
    the legitimately-elected National Assembly exercised their
    power under the Venezuelan constitution to designate Assembly
    President Juan Guaido as interim president of Venezuela.
        Embracing this process to restore democracy in Venezuela,
    it was critically important that more than 50 countries
    recognized Guaido as the interim president.
        This unprecedented coalition spans our hemisphere and the
    world, from Canada, Colombia, Argentina, Ecuador, and Brazil to
    the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Germany, and Japan, to
    mention a few.
        I strongly support the Administration's decision to
    recognize Guaido, as well as its efforts to expand sanctions
    against specific individuals, and to work with regional
    partners to deliver much needed humanitarian aid. And I believe
    firmly in the full use of U.S. political and economic pressure
    to create the conditions necessary for a negotiated solution
    that includes Maduro's departure and Venezuela's peaceful
    return to democracy.
        So we must ask: Where do we go from here? As the Guaido
    government works to restore democracy, the global community
    must not waver in our support for the Venezuelan people.
        In 2014, when I was chairman of the Senate Foreign
    Relations Committee, we passed the first set of sanctions and
    efforts to restore democracy to Venezuela. Last week I authored
    bipartisan legislation to extend Temporary Protected Status to
    Venezuelans in the United States, and in the coming weeks I
    plan to introduce comprehensive legislation aimed at pressuring
    the Maduro regime further and helping the Venezuelan people
    rebuild their country.
        My legislation will expand humanitarian assistance. My bill
    includes provisions to increase pressure on the regime, but it
    will also send a message particularly to the military inside of
    Venezuela and to regime officials: If you want a future in
    Venezuela, and if you want a future free of U.S. sanctions that
    will follow you anywhere in the world, then you must recognize
    the legitimate interim president, Juan Guaido, and you must not
    have blood on your hands. You must not have blood on your
    hands.
        However, for our economic and financial sanctions to be
    truly effective, they must be matched by actions from our
    allies. We must, by example, encourage our partners to make
    similar investments.
        During my travel to Europe for the Munich Security
    Conference last month, I took every opportunity to raise
    Venezuela with European leaders, stressing the importance of
    coordinating our humanitarian and our sanctions efforts, and
    the interim president's push to organize new democratic
    elections.
        What I would caution is that the support that we have lent
    unequivocally to Venezuela does not include the use of force.
    These comments threaten the international consensus that has
    created an opening for positive change and a return to
    democracy.
        Despite our collective hopes, the events of the last
    several weeks did not lead to the quick win that the
    Administration seemed to expect. As we have learned throughout
    our history as a nation, confronting tyranny requires sustained
    commitment.
        It is increasingly clear that the struggle for democracy
    and freedom in Venezuela is going to take some time,
    discipline, and a strategy based on a keen understanding of the
    complex situation on the ground.
        But Maduro is not invincible; he's far from it. Since
    January 23rd, more than 500 soldiers and several high- ranking
    regime officials have defected, including two generals and the
    former head of the intelligence service. Moreover, President
    Guaido further exposed Maduro's weakness by returning to
    Venezuela on Monday, doing so not by sneaking across the border
    but by landing at Caracas airport.
        We have a unique opportunity before us.
        So, in closing, I know that I have heard that the
    Administration has a Plan A, B, C, and D. I look forward to
    hearing what those are at this hearing so that we can
    understand how we can strategize together, coordinate together,
    to achieve the ultimate goal of the freedom of the Venezuelan
    people and the opportunity to restore democracy in Venezuela,
    and to make it once again a nation among the family of
    hemispheric nations that observes the rule of law, democracy,
    and has the respect of its people's rights.
        Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        Senator Rubio. Thank you.
        We will begin with our witnesses.
        Mr. Abrams?

     STATEMENT OF THE HON. ELLIOTT ABRAMS, SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE
        FOR VENEZUELA, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE, WASHINGTON, DC

        Mr. Abrams. Thank you, Chairman Rubio and Ranking Member
    Cardin, and Chairman Risch and Ranking Member Menendez, members
    of the committee. Thanks for the opportunity to testify here.
        We are witnessing in Venezuela one of the worst
    humanitarian disasters ever in our hemisphere, as you have
    said, and the largest displacement of people in Latin American
    history. Well over 3 million Venezuelans have fled to
    neighboring countries.
        This crisis is, as has been noted, all manmade by a small
    and venal group acting without the slightest concern for the
    people of Venezuela.
        The Venezuelan people have the commitment of the United
    States Government to work with them as they restore their
    democracy and rebuild the prosperity of their nation.
        First, we will keep putting the pressure on Nicolas Maduro.
    We are putting an end to his regime's use of PDVSA as a source
    of vast corruption. We have implemented sanctions that are
    cutting off vital sources of cash to this corrupt regime's
    pockets. We are applying the full weight of individual
    sanctions on Maduro's supporters, and are revoking their own
    and their families' visas. We are working with the
    international community to freeze the regime's bank accounts
    across the globe.
        We are also making it clear that it is never too late to
    change. We will provide off-ramps to those who will support
    democratic change in Venezuela and do what is right for the
    Venezuelan people.
        We have at the same time answered Interim President
    Guaido's call for humanitarian help. I am sure the
    Administrator will have more to say about that. But the total
    of the United States' support is just now short of $200
    million. We have stocked warehouses in Cucuta, Colombia full of
    food and basic medicines at the border and are seeking ways of
    bringing those supplies into Venezuela and having them
    distributed to people in need.
        Maduro and his cronies, and some of their cheerleaders
    abroad, claim that delivering humanitarian assistance is a
    political show and a cover for military intervention and a
    violation of Venezuela's sovereignty. But let's be clear: only
    the Maduro regime is using violence. Only the regime is
    shooting at unarmed protesters and aid workers. Only the regime
    has betrayed Venezuelan independence and sovereignty by
    submitting to Cuban influence in Venezuela's military,
    security, and intelligence agencies, as Chairman Rubio noted.
    Only the regime uses food and medicine as a political tool for
    social control. Their repeated mention of military intervention
    is simply a ploy designed to divide the broad, unified
    international coalition of now 54 countries supporting
    democracy in Venezuela.
        It is becoming clear that the great majority of the armed
    forces and the National Guard do not want to carry out the
    Maduro regime's shameful orders. The use of armed gangs
    suggests that Maduro has real doubts about the loyalty of the
    Venezuelan military.
        For those members of the armed forces who are still on the
    fence, fearing retaliation by Maduro's Cuban accomplices, we
    are asking them to show their pride and patriotism, and we
    believe they have a key role to play in rebuilding their
    homeland.
        Interim President Guaido and the political parties in
    Venezuela's legitimate National Assembly have all stated that
    the transition to a new post-Maduro Venezuela will be a multi-
    party, inclusive process. It will include Chavistas and others
    of every political background who see a democratic future for
    Venezuela, led by the Venezuelan people, not a Venezuelan
    dictator and a small corrupt crew.
        We are grateful for the leadership of our partners in
    supporting humanitarian assistance for the people of Venezuela,
    and supporting their demand for democracy. We are witnessing an
    historic shift in this hemisphere toward solidarity and shared
    interests, and with 54 countries that have now recognized
    Guaido as interim president, we can be proud that we have
    helped galvanize the effort to restore democracy and liberty to
    Venezuela.
        Each day, courageous Venezuelan patriots struggle to make
    Venezuela free, often at their own real peril, and Interim
    President Guaido has injected a new energy into the collective
    hope of those who want to return to a Venezuela that benefits
    all Venezuelan citizens, not just Maduro and the inner circle.
        So, Mr. Chairman, we stand united behind the Venezuelan
    people. Like the vast majority of Venezuelans, we believe the
    time to end Maduro's wholesale destruction of Venezuela is now.
    And when Venezuelans succeed in ending the dictatorship and
    restoring liberty, it will show despots and dictators not only
    in our hemisphere but in the rest of the world that people's
    desire for freedom cannot be extinguished.
        Thank you, Mr. Chairman, members of the committee, Ranking
    Member Cardin, Chairman Risch, Ranking Member Menendez, for
    having me here today. I look forward to answering your
    questions. Thank you.
        [The prepared statement of Mr. Abrams follows:]

                      Prepared Statement of Elliott Abrams

        Chairman Rubio, Ranking Member Cardin, and Members of the
    Committee, thank you for the opportunity to testify on the
    Administration's approach to Venezuela. I thank all of you for your
    interest in one of the most pressing foreign policy issues before us.
    We are witnessing one of the worst humanitarian disasters ever in our
    hemisphere. And it is all man-made, by a small and venal group acting
    without the slightest concern for the people of Venezuela.
        On February 23, the world witnessed disgraced former president of
    Venezuela Nicolas Maduro and his wife joyfully dance after his criminal
    gangs murdered more than 25 people, injured more than 80 others, and
    set fire to and destroyed humanitarian assistance that could have fed
    hungry children, provided medicines to the sick, and saved lives. His
    henchmen, like Freddy Bernal, released prisoners from jail and paid
    them--along with terrorists groups like the ELN--to shoot, harass, and
    intimidate indigenous people and aid workers who only wanted to bring
    long-awaited relief to Venezuelans. And the effects of Venezuela's
    crisis are not limited to its own borders. We are witnessing the
    largest displacement of people in Latin American history. Well over
    three million Venezuelans have fled to neighboring countries.
        In short, while his own people starve and bleed, the Maduro regime
    celebrates.
        Every day that goes by, the suffering of the Venezuelan people
    grows. But every day, we also see Maduro grow weaker and that's why the
    Venezuelan people should not lose hope. We now know Maduro can no
    longer depend on the loyalty of those around him. He may dress up his
    thugs in military and National Guard uniforms to make it appear he has
    support, but his use of armed gangs suggests his real doubts about the
    loyalty of the Venezuelan military. Maduro's back is up against the
    wall. Surrounding him on all sides, he has people who despise him--
    people just waiting for the right moment to show him the door.
        It's becoming clearer that the vast majority of the Armed Forces
    and National Guard do not want to carry out Maduro's shameful orders.
    For those members of the armed forces who are still on the fence,
    fearing retaliation by Maduro's Cuban accomplices, we have told them
    that now is the time to take a stand because Maduro is waging war
    against his own people. We are asking them to show their pride and
    patriotism by lifting their own people out of this crisis. Their people
    need them now more than ever and they have a key role to play in
    rebuilding their homeland. Interim President Juan Guaido, his
    representative in the United States Ambassador Carlos Vecchio,
    political parties in Venezuela's legitimate National Assembly, and the
    National Assembly's economic recovery planners have all Stated that the
    transition to a new, post-Maduro Venezuela will be a multi-party,
    inclusive process. It will also include chavistas and others of every
    socio-economic background who see a democratic future for Venezuela,
    led by the Venezuelan people--not a Venezuelan dictator and a small,
    corrupt crew.
        In the meantime, Mr. Chairman, the Venezuelan people have the
    commitment of the United States government to work with them as they
    restore their democracy, restore a proper respect for human rights, and
    rebuild the prosperity of their nation.
        First, we will keep building the pressure on Nicolas Maduro. We are
    putting an end to his regime's pillaging of PDVSA, once called the
    ``crown jewel of the people,'' as a source of vast corruption. We have
    implemented sanctions that are cutting off vital sources of cash to
    this corrupt regime's pockets. Customers for Venezuela's oil are
    dwindling, reducing the regime's ability to sustain itself and enrich
    insiders. We are also working with the international community to
    freeze the regime's bank accounts across the globe. We are revoking
    their own and their families' visas and we are applying the full weight
    of individual sanctions on Maduro's supporters.
        We are also making it clear that it is never too late to change.
    Off-ramps are available to those who concretely support democratic
    change in Venezuela and do what is right for the Venezuelan people.
        At the same time, we have answered interim President Guaido's call
    for humanitarian help. Vice President Pence's February 25 announcement
    of nearly $56 million in additional humanitarian assistance to support
    the regional response to the Venezuela crisis brings the total United
    States government response to more than $195 million, including more
    than $152 million in humanitarian assistance and approximately $43
    million in development and economic assistance. On January 24,
    Secretary Pompeo announced the United States is ready to provide more
    than $20 million in initial humanitarian assistance to the people
    inside Venezuela. We have stocked warehouses full of food and basic
    medicine at the border crossing of Cucuta, Colombia, and are seeking
    ways to bring these supplies into Venezuela and have them distributed
    to people in need.
        Maduro and his cronies, and some of his cheerleaders abroad, claim
    that delivering humanitarian assistance is a political show--a cover
    for a military intervention and a violation of Venezuela's sovereignty.
    But let me be very clear: only the Maduro regime is using violence.
    Only the regime is shooting at and killing unarmed protestors and aid
    workers. Only the regime has betrayed Venezuelan independence and
    sovereignty by submitting to Cuban influence in Venezuela's military,
    security, and intelligence. Only the regime uses food and medicines as
    political tools for social control. Their repeated mention of U.S.
    military intervention is simply a ploy designed to divide the broad,
    unified international coalition of 54 counties supporting democracy in
    Venezuela.
        We are grateful for the leadership of our partners in supporting
    humanitarian assistance for the people of Venezuela and supporting
    their demand for democracy. The European Union, Argentina, Brazil,
    Canada, Chile, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, and Peru, all
    swiftly condemned the use of violence and called for the delivery of
    much-needed humanitarian assistance. Their words, and their actions,
    are making a real difference in this crisis. As a result, we are
    witnessing a historic shift in our hemisphere toward solidarity and
    shared interests--recognizing we are stronger together. With 54
    countries that have now recognized Guaido as interim president, we can
    be proud that we have helped galvanize a global effort to restore
    democracy and liberty in Venezuela.
        Although Maduro's dictatorial actions have cost lives and inflicted
    great pain and suffering, we are witnessing a massive outpouring of
    hope, courage, and tenacity by the Venezuelan people. They are openly
    condemning a regime that has brought them nothing but sadness, anger,
    and misery. The protests of 2017 were significant. What we are seeing
    today should humble and inspire us all: Venezuelans from all walks of
    life united in an enduring struggle to end this nightmare. Each day,
    courageous Venezuelan patriots struggle to make Venezuela free, often
    at their own peril. They are bringing change to Venezuela through their
    bravery. And over the last few weeks, they have been heard. Interim
    President Juan Guaido has injected new energy into the collective hope
    of those who want to return to a Venezuela that benefits all Venezuelan
    citizens, not just Maduro and his inner circle.
        The United States stands behind Interim President Guaido 100
    percent. More importantly, Mr. Chairman, we stand united behind the
    Venezuelan people. We will not abandon them in this difficult moment.
    Like the vast majority of Venezuelans, we believe that the time to end
    Maduro's wholesale destruction of Venezuela is now. And when
    Venezuelans succeed in ending the dictatorship and restoring liberty,
    it will show despots and dictators not only in our hemisphere, but in
    the rest of the world, that the people's desire for freedom cannot be
    extinguished.
        Thank you Mr. Chairman, Ranking Member, and Members of the
    Committee. I look forward to answering any questions you have.

        Senator Rubio. Administrator Green?

     STATEMENT OF THE HON. MARK GREEN, ADMINISTRATOR, U.S. AGENCY
             FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, WASHINGTON, DC

        Mr. Green. Chairman Risch and Ranking Member Menendez,
    Chairman Rubio and Ranking Member Cardin, members of the
    subcommittee, thank you for this opportunity to discuss the
    ongoing crisis in Venezuela, and thanks to all of you on both
    sides of the aisle for your leadership on this very important
    topic.
        One of our challenges this morning may be that we are
    running out of terms to adequately capture the level of
    suffering that Venezuelan families are facing each and every
    day. Hyper-inflation, by some estimates approaching 2 million
    percent, and rampant food shortages have wrecked the ability of
    countless families to make ends meet. According to the
    Venezuelan Society of Pediatrics and Childcare, 80 percent of
    children under 5 are in some stage of malnutrition. Nearly 90
    percent of hospitals are experiencing medicine shortages, and
    almost as many are without reliable power or water.
        Infectious diseases previously eliminated or controlled are
    now surging. A diphtheria outbreak that began in July 2016 has
    now escalated to nearly 1,560 cases, including 270 deaths. All
    of this affects the larger region. Of the roughly 17,000
    measles cases recently diagnosed in the region, most have been
    traced to outbreaks inside Venezuela.
        Well over 3 million Venezuelans have already fled into
    neighboring countries, and, as was stated, this is the largest
    cross-border exodus in the history of the Americas. Of course,
    the crisis is all the more outrageous because it is entirely
    manmade and regime driven. From government takeover of huge
    sectors of the economy to rampant kleptocracy, from destroying
    governing checks and balances and civil rights to forcing
    doctors and other professionals to flee, the regime has caused
    a once-prosperous nation to essentially implode.
        As if all of this were not enough, Maduro saves some of his
    worst for his treatment of humanitarian assistance. For one
    thing, he heartlessly continues to claim, in the face of all of
    the suffering and sorrow, that there is no crisis, that his
    government is already fully providing for the Venezuelan
    people. As recently as 2016, he claimed the country's health
    care system was among the best in the world. Far worse, his
    regime often uses his country's plight to increase his hold on
    power. He has regularly manipulated social assistance programs
    to reward supporters, enrich cronies, and influence votes.
    Credible reports show he has skimmed millions from social
    welfare programs, and there is evidence that he has used
    identification cards in ways that tied food assistance to votes
    and political support for the regime.
        Needless to say, USAID does not view the Maduro regime, or
    the networks it controls, as an appropriate means for
    delivering relief. However, the good news is that we actually
    see rays of hope for both a real humanitarian partnership and a
    more democratic, prosperous future in Venezuela. That good news
    is the emergence of Juan Guaido as interim president,
    officially recognized by the U.S. and more than 50 other
    countries.
        I have recently spoken with Interim President Guaido and
    his representatives, both by phone and in person. They thanked
    us for USAID's support for democracy in Venezuela, and that
    should be particularly gratifying to all of you because of the
    democracy assistance programs for Venezuela that you have
    invested in over these last five years on a bipartisan basis.
    This assistance has supported local organizations working on
    human rights, civil society, independent media, electoral
    oversight, and the democratically elected National Assembly.
        Guaido's team has also requested our assistance to begin
    addressing some of the urgent needs of everyday Venezuelans.
    USAID, with support from the Departments of Defense and State
    and others, has responded.
        First, we are continuing to provide support to the
    surrounding region in the form of urgently needed food, health
    care, protection, and shelter to both Venezuelans and host
    communities. Over the last two years our assistance has totaled
    more than $195 million.
        Second, now that we have a leader with whom we can partner,
    we have taken steps to pre-position humanitarian assistance
    close to the border for eventual delivery into Venezuela. Since
    February 4th, the U.S. Government has pre- positioned more than
    525 metric tons of urgently needed humanitarian assistance,
    food aid, emergency medical items, hygiene kits, water
    treatment units, and nutrition products. In fact, this very
    day, Deputy Administrator Bonnie Glick is accompanying our
    latest shipment of humanitarian assistance and medical supplies
    aimed at helping hospitals and clinics to Cucuta.
        The U.S. Government is hardly alone. A dozen-plus countries
    have made concrete pledges, and five, including the U.S., have
    already taken steps to pre-position assistance. In addition, we
    know that private-sector sources are also attempting to respond
    to Guaido's request.
        As you are no doubt aware, on February 23rd, Interim
    President Guaido and courageous Venezuelan volunteers attempted
    to bring some supplies from the international community,
    including some from USAID, across the border. Unfortunately,
    they were confronted by security forces alongside colectivos.
        It is clear that the Venezuelan people will not be deterred
    by Maduro's brutality or cowardice, and neither will the U.S.
    Government. We will continue to support Interim President
    Guaido's efforts to deliver aid to his people in Venezuela, and
    we will continue to support Colombia and others that are
    hosting Venezuelans who have fled.
        We all recognize that humanitarian assistance, however
    badly it is needed, is treatment, not cure. It cannot address
    the root cause of the problem. So long as Maduro and his
    cronies continue to crush the people, their economy, and their
    hope, this crisis will worsen. They deserve a return to
    democracy, rule of law, and citizen-responsive governance.
        Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Thank you to all of you for your
    support. With that continued support, we will continue in our
    efforts to support the people of Venezuela, the interim
    president, to restore democracy and prosperity.
        [The prepared statement of Mr. Green follows:]

                        Prepared Statement of Mark Green

        Chairman Rubio, Ranking Member Cardin, and distinguished Members of
    the Subcommittee, thank you for the opportunity to discuss the
    situation in Venezuela and our work to support those affected by the
    crisis.
        For years, Members of this Subcommittee have called attention to
    the corruption, economic mismanagement, and oppression that are the
    hallmarks of the former, illegitimate Maduro regime, and I appreciate
    your continued leadership on this issue. In particular, I would like to
    thank Chairman Rubio for his leadership. I appreciated our recent time
    together in Colombia, where we saw firsthand some of the effects of the
    crisis, as well as aspects of our response efforts. I would also like
    to thank Ranking Member Cardin for sustained focus on assisting the
    Venezuelan people, including the legislation he introduced in the last
    Congress. Your ongoing support and input is critical to our work.
        It will come as no surprise to the Members of this Subcommittee
    that the situation in Venezuela is severe and continues to deteriorate.
    In fact, one of our great challenges is finding words to adequately
    convey the suffering that Venezuelan families feel each and every day.
    Hyperinflation and food scarcity have driven the monthly cost to feed a
    family to 100 times the monthly minimum wage. Crumbling infrastructure
    has disrupted water and sanitation services. Nearly 90 percent of
    Venezuelan hospitals are experiencing medicine shortages, and almost as
    many are without reliable power or water. No longer able to meet their
    basic needs, almost 3.5 million Venezuelans have fled to neighboring
    countries and beyond, creating the largest cross-border exodus in the
    history of the Americas; the effects of this crisis extend well beyond
    the country's borders.
        The collapsing health care infrastructure in Venezuela has led to
    surges of infectious diseases within the country and, increasingly,
    throughout the region. This includes diseases that had previously been
    eliminated or controlled. An outbreak of diphtheria that began in July
    2016 has escalated to nearly 1,560 cases as of January 2019, resulting
    in 270 deaths. Dengue has taken its toll as well, with more than 2,400
    confirmed cases in 2018.
        Again, the effects of these outbreaks are not limited to the
    country itself. In 2016, 86 percent of malaria cases in one Brazilian
    municipality were attributed to Venezuelan immigration. The majority of
    the approximately 17,000 measles cases throughout the region have been
    traced to outbreaks inside Venezuela. Recently, nearly 50
    epidemiological specialists urged health-care authorities to declare a
    region-wide public health emergency due to ongoing disease outbreaks,
    stemming from Venezuela--malaria, measles, Chagas disease,
    leishmaniasis, Zika virus, and dengue virus were all cited.
        Of course, mere numbers fall short of telling the full story. Two
    weeks ago, I visited Cucuta, Colombia, a short distance from the
    Venezuela border. There, I saw firsthand the human toll of the
    illegitimate Maduro regime's disastrous policies and actions. Speaking
    with the Venezuelans who had managed to reach this city, I heard
    accounts of children starving, hospitals running out of medicine, and
    people forced to walk hundreds of miles over several days to cross the
    border in search of help. One young mother, with tears streaming down
    her face, told me how she had to leave her 7-year-old child behind when
    she fled. As I know you all agree, the horror of the situation is all
    the more painful because Venezuela was once one of the region's
    wealthiest countries.
        The United States has a long, proud tradition of standing with
    people and countries in their time of need, and acting when it can to
    save lives and alleviate human suffering. It is who we are as
    Americans. Of course, that principle is especially important when it
    comes to crises in our own hemisphere, because our national security
    interests are also at stake.
        Again, this crisis is entirely man-made and regime-driven. Rather
    than save lives, Maduro's sole objective is quite clearly holding on to
    his own power--regardless of the misery it causes. As a consequence,
    humanitarian assistance from the U.S. and elsewhere cannot be entrusted
    to his control and networks of distribution. Remember, to this day,
    Maduro claims there is no crisis in Venezuela--that the government is
    already adequately providing for its people. At the same time, his
    illegitimate regime is heartlessly using food and other life-sustaining
    supplies as tools to further oppress and control the lives of
    individuals. For example, according to industry sources, Maduro
    controls 100 percent of bakery flour inside the country. His regime
    decides who receives flour and how much. Much of the time, this basic
    necessity is made available only to Maduro's key supporters and allies.
        But, for the first time in some years, there are real rays of hope.
    The U.S. and other leading democracies rejected the results of last
    May's illegitimate elections. We have repeatedly recognized the
    National Assembly as the only legitimate government body, duly elected
    by the Venezuelan people. And on January 23, 2019, we became the first
    country to officially recognize Juan Guaido as the Interim President of
    Venezuela under the country's constitution. Interim President Guaido's
    leadership has provided new inspiration for everyday Venezuelans to
    continue bravely resisting Maduro's tyranny, despite the very real
    risks posed by their courage.
        I myself spoke with Interim President Guaido on January 30, 2019.
    During that call, I reaffirmed the United States commitment to continue
    supporting the Venezuelan National Assembly, as well as other key
    democratic actors, such as local civil society organizations and the
    independent media. We agreed to work together to help restore dignity,
    human rights, and democracy in Venezuela. Interim President Guaido also
    requested our assistance in helping him begin to meet some of the
    urgent needs of his people.
        In response to his request, USAID and the Department of State--with
    support from the Departments of Defense and others--has pre-positioned
    humanitarian assistance in Colombia close to the border for eventual
    delivery into Venezuela. The State Department's Bureau of Population,
    Refugees, and Migration simultaneously staged assistance in Brazil. All
    told, since February 4, the U.S. Government has pre-positioned more
    than 400 metric tons of urgently needed humanitarian assistance,
    including food aid, emergency medical items, hygiene kits, water
    treatment units, and nutrition products, on Venezuela's two longest
    borders.
        At President Trump's instruction, we have closely coordinated these
    efforts with the international community. President Ivan Duque of
    Colombia and President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, in particular, have
    been key allies in our efforts. I was honored to join Vice President
    Pence at his February 25 meeting with members of the Lima Group in
    Bogota, Colombia. The U.S. is grateful for our allies in the region who
    have stepped up to help the Venezuelan people in their hour of need.
        As you are no doubt aware, on February 23, 2019, Interim President
    Guaido and courageous Venezuelan volunteers attempted to bring these
    supplies and other assistance from the international community across
    the border. Unfortunately, they were confronted by more evidence of the
    illegitimate Maduro regime's callous disregard for the Venezuelan
    people. Maduro's security forces, alongside colectivos--armed gangs
    under Maduro's control--blocked trucks carrying life-saving assistance.
    They fired tear gas, rubber bullets, and set vehicles on fire. Members
    of Venezuela's Pemon indigenous group had peacefully organized the
    transport of supplies from Brazil, but they were viciously attacked by
    regime security forces. There are reports that Maduro deliberately
    released convicts from prison, entreating them to join the violence.
    Several members of the Pemon community were killed, among dozens of
    fellow Venezuelans who were wounded by gunshot in an attempt to bring
    in assistance that Venezuela so desperately needs. It was a shocking
    display of brutality, but par for the course for Maduro and his thugs.
        It's clear that the Venezuelan people will not be deterred by
    Maduro's brutality or cowardice--and neither will the U.S. Government.
    We will continue to support Interim President Guaido's efforts to
    deliver aid to his people in Venezuela, and we will continue to support
    Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Brazil, and others that are hosting
    Venezuelans who have fled. To date, the U.S. has provided more than
    $195 million, including more than $152 million in humanitarian
    assistance and approximately $43 million in development and economic
    assistance, to aid those Venezuelans who have left the country. That
    funding has supported the provision of urgently needed food, health
    care, protection, and shelter, to both Venezuelans and host
    communities. We are not alone in this effort. Many of our close allies
    have pledged support, and many private citizens have already
    contributed assistance to the region, as well.
        We all realize that humanitarian assistance, no matter how badly it
    is needed, is treatment, not a cure. It cannot address the root cause
    of the problem. So long as Maduro and his cronies continue to crush the
    people of Venezuela, their economy, and their hope, this crisis will
    worsen. As in Cuba, Nicaragua, and other places where people are
    suffering under authoritarianism, we know the answer to Venezuela's
    problem is human liberty and democracy, which remain the highest and
    best hope for people everywhere.
        Venezuelans deserve a return to democracy, rule of law, and
    citizen-responsive governance. Despite the current turmoil, I am
    optimistic that a brighter day is ahead. The doomsayers talk as though
    freedom is in irreversible decline, but the only way freedom and
    democracy will fall away is if we let them. Interim President Guaido,
    and the other Venezuelans I have spoken with during my travels
    throughout the region, are determined not to let that happen, and we
    are proud to stand with them in their struggle.
        Mr. Chairman, Ranking Member Cardin, Members of the Subcommittee,
    we are witnessing a truly historic times for Venezuela and our
    hemisphere. As President Trump recently said in Miami, ``the people of
    Venezuela stand at the threshold of history, ready to reclaim their
    country--and their future.'' With Congress' support, we at USAID will
    continue our efforts to support the Venezuelan people and help Interim
    President Juan Guaido and the National Assembly restore democracy and
    prosperity to Venezuela.

        Senator Rubio. Thank you.
        I am not going to use the full opening time. I have three
    quick questions, Mr. Abrams.
        The first is, is it the policy of the United States to seek
    a peaceful solution and transition to democracy?
        Mr. Abrams. Yes, it is.
        Senator Rubio. And you spend 100 percent of your time in
    search of a peaceful transition to democracy?
        Mr. Abrams. That is correct.
        Senator Rubio. Second, the Maduro regime--well, let me ask
    you this. Yesterday, Ambassador Bolton put out a statement in
    which he put foreign financial institutions on notice that they
    will face sanctions for being involved in facilitating
    illegitimate transactions. What kind of sanctions are being
    contemplated?
        Mr. Abrams. We have sanctioned a number of financial
    institutions already, and we are going to expand the net. We
    have under consideration other institutions which I will not
    name because we do not want them to get advance notice, but
    there will be more sanctions on financial institutions that are
    carrying out the orders of the Maduro regime to steal funds
    from Venezuela and hide it all around the world.
        Senator Rubio. And my final question is, Maduro's strategy
    is to wait us out. He thinks if he can wait long enough, we are
    going to get distracted and focus on something else, the
    opposition will fracture, and he will be able to hold on. It is
    the one way he has bought himself time. The other is four
    separate instances in which these negotiations, he used them
    basically to buy time.
        Will Maduro wait out the United States, or is our
    commitment on this issue to be on it as long as it takes and no
    matter how hard it is?
        Mr. Abrams. That is our commitment, and I think it is both
    a bipartisan commitment and one that the Congress and the
    Administration share.
        Senator Rubio. Thank you.
        Senator Cardin?
        Senator Cardin. As we have all pointed out, there is strong
    bipartisan support for the Administration's policies as it
    relates to the recognition of the interim president, and the
    people of Venezuela, and the illegitimacy of the Maduro regime.
        This is happening in our hemisphere. Three million people
    have left Venezuela.
        Mr. Abrams, I take it that we are supporting the Colombia
    decision to have an open border so that those that are escaping
    the tragedy in Venezuela are being welcomed in Colombia.
        Mr. Abrams. We are, and we are trying to provide some
    financial support for Colombia to help defray the very large
    expenses that they are undertaking.
        Senator Cardin. So, I want to ask you a direct question. We
    are judged not only by our words but also our actions, and we
    know that there are Venezuelans coming to our border. In
    previous times we have had open borders for those who are
    escaping persecution once they establish themselves as leaving
    an area where they are not safe. They can either use asylum, or
    we use Temporary Protected Status. We have done both. In some
    cases we have had very open policies, the Cubans who came to
    America.
        What is the Administration's policy in regards to those who
    are coming to our border? Do you support their being welcomed
    here in the United States to seek asylum and that they could be
    protected under TPS status?
        Mr. Abrams. We know that that is a great concern of yours
    and Senator Rubio's, who has introduced a bill on this with Mr.
    Menendez, and we have this policy actually under review right
    now.
        I would say that there are 74,000 asylum applications right
    now from Venezuela.
        Senator Cardin. What is there to review? We all have
    pointed out the urgency of this situation. This is not a matter
    that can wait. So I am somewhat puzzled as to what there is to
    review.
        Mr. Abrams. If one decides to move in that direction, there
    are a number of ways to do it--administratively, by TPS. So one
    of the things one has to decide is what exactly are you going
    to do once you decide to protect Venezuelans who are here. And
    as I say, there are 74,000 who are here who have applied for
    asylum, so they are, in a sense, being protected by the delays
    in that process. But they have come to the United States, and
    they are here, asking us to allow them to stay here.
        Senator Cardin. I would just point out that clarity here,
    to me, is extremely important. We are asking the region,
    countries in the region, to make extraordinary sacrifices in
    order to protect the lives of people. Our actions will be
    judged very much by what we do. When you say it is under
    consideration, that tells me that we are not acting in a timely
    way, and that presents to me a challenge for us and our
    leadership in that region.
        Mr. Abrams. Well, thank you, Senator. I will happily take
    this back to discuss with the Secretary. As you know, it is not
    only a State Department issue. It is a DHS issue, as well. But
    we will move forward on that.
        Senator Cardin. You mentioned sanctions against financial
    institutions, and I strongly support what you are doing there.
    I want to get to individual sanctions, the use of Global
    Magnitsky or other sanction tools that we have available.
        There needs to be a clear message to those who are part of
    the Maduro machinery, whether they are in the military or not
    in the military. Are we aggressively using individual sanctions
    to make it clear that people that are in power under Maduro
    have a choice: If they follow his leadership, they will be
    sanctioned, and we will maintain those sanctions and seek
    international support for those sanctions; but they have an
    opportunity to do what is right for the people of Venezuela?
        Mr. Abrams. We are. We have sanctioned dozens of regime
    officials. There will be more sanctions. There were about a
    half-dozen more a few days ago. There will be more. There are
    also visa revocations. I announced 49 last week. The Vice
    President announced 77 more for regime people and their
    families who we do not want in the United States.
        Senator Cardin. And have we made it clear that there is a
    path forward, that if they do what is right for the people of
    Venezuela----
        Mr. Abrams. Yes. Every time we do this we note that these
    visa revocations, for example, and sanctions are all
    reversible.
        Senator Cardin. And, Administrator Green, I want to
    underscore a point that we talked about yesterday. Yes, we need
    to provide humanitarian aid to the 3 million, and we are doing
    that, and I appreciate that, working with our partners
    globally. We need to do everything we can to get humanitarian
    assistance into Venezuela, which is extremely challenging, and
    we need to do that.
        We also have to recognize the regional impact, particularly
    in Colombia, which has over 1 million. There is a need there,
    but also as it affects our plans for Colombia; it is now
    impacted.
        Can Colombia continue its peace process and integration of
    its communities and economic progress with the impact of the
    Venezuelans who have come to their country? Is that on your
    radar screen?
        Mr. Green. Thank you for the question, and it absolutely
    is. You are right, the cost to the other countries in the
    region is not only the immediate humanitarian costs of
    assistance, but it affects their economic growth, it affects a
    number of things. So, yes, we are working with countries in the
    region, specifically and perhaps most of all with Colombia, to
    help them with a number of the other challenges that they are
    taking on.
        Senator Cardin. I would ask that, particularly in this
    budget cycle, that we be engaged on this, because it is going
    to be a challenge for Colombia to meet its goals in regards to
    their peace commitment. So we would welcome working with you as
    to the tools you need to help make that a reality.
        Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        Mr. Green. Thank you.
        Senator Rubio. I just want to briefly recognize that we
    have been joined by Ambassador Vecchio, the legitimate
    ambassador to Venezuela, recently appointed by Interim
    President Guaido and confirmed by the National Assembly. Thank
    you for joining us.
        Senator Barrasso?
        Senator Barrasso. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.
        Ambassador Green, we all strongly condemn the Maduro
    regime's violent attacks and murders of civilians seeking
    humanitarian aid in Venezuela. While the people of Venezuela
    are enduring a serious humanitarian crisis, Maduro is happy, it
    seems, to let the people of Venezuela suffer. He is denying
    food, denying medical care to his own people who are
    desperately in need of assistance. We know that stockpiles of
    life-saving assistance, including food and medicine and hygiene
    kits, are piling up at the border of Colombia and Brazil. The
    Chairman has been down to help in those efforts. So we strongly
    all urge Maduro to let humanitarian aid into Venezuela.
        Could you talk a little bit about just how much, if any, of
    U.S. humanitarian assistance is actually reaching the
    Venezuelan people?
        Mr. Green. Well, first off, of course, much assistance is
    reaching those who have fled, as we know, into the neighboring
    countries. In terms of those who have remained behind who are
    still in Venezuela, we know that there are private sources out
    there or individuals who are providing assistance and taking it
    across.
        In terms of the assistance that we are all referring to
    that was pre-positioned in these recent weeks; tragically, on
    February 23rd, we all saw those events of the violent
    confrontation where the two trucks were set on fire. We just
    recently in the last few days did a complete inventory. The
    good news is the losses were relatively minor, so that
    assistance is being repositioned.
        It really is up to the leadership of Interim President
    Guaido. This assistance was pre-positioned at his request-
    specific requests from Guaido to President Trump, Secretary
    Pompeo, and all of us. So we are working with him and following
    his lead.
        Senator Barrasso. Senator Cardin used the word ``urgency,''
    and we all have a sense of urgency. So if a political
    transition does not occur quickly and Maduro continues to
    prevent humanitarian assistance to his own people, could you
    talk about the likely impact on this humanitarian situation in
    Venezuela?
        Mr. Green. I saw a statistic the other day that suggested
    that in the time that Maduro has been in power, the economy of
    Venezuela has contracted by 50 percent, and the estimate is
    that if things do not change it will contract another third
    this year. So we will see a profound collapse, and it is not
    even just the availability of food and staples. When you have
    inflation hitting, by some estimates, 2 million percent, nobody
    has the ability to buy anything anyway. So there will be
    profound despair and hopelessness.
        But I will say this: my money continues to be on the
    Venezuelan people. I believe Maduro's days are numbered. I do
    not know what that number is, but when I was down there just
    last week, the remarkable energy and courage of the Venezuelan
    people tells me that this will eventually end the right way.
        Senator Barrasso. Mr. Abrams, I see you shaking your head
    yes about the length of the ability of the Maduro regime to
    stay in place. The world saw the Assad regime remain in power
    as a direct result of being propped up by outside countries,
    such as the military and the financial backing from Russia and
    from Iran. These countries were willing to support a ruthless
    dictator who was willing to brutally murder his own people and
    destroy his own country.
        As you look at the Maduro regime's frantic attempts going
    on right now to remain in power, what countries do you see
    attempting to help keep him in power against the people?
        Mr. Abrams. The two critical supports, as Senator Rubio
    said, are Russia and Cuba. There are thousands and thousands of
    Cuban military and intel people all around Maduro. They
    permeate the regime. Russia has supplied tens of billions of
    dollars. As soon as we did the pedevesa sanctions, Maduro
    turned to Russia to purchase more oil to sell what they need to
    be able to continue exporting oil. So those are the two
    countries that are really propping up the regime most.
        Senator Barrasso. And then the final question, because
    Ambassador Green talked about the economy constricted by 50
    percent and another 50 percent coming in terms of the future,
    Mr. Abrams, what economic reforms need to occur into the next
    administration in order to reverse the destruction of the
    Maduro regime that he has unleashed on this Venezuelan economy?
    What can people do once he is gone?
        Mr. Abrams. There are a number of plans. There is a thing
    called Plan Puesta that the National Assembly has. Our own
    embassy has worked on a plan. And there will be, I should say,
    unquestionably, World Bank and IMF plans that will involve
    billions of dollars in funds to reconstruct the economy of
    Venezuela.
        The great thing in this case is that this is not
    fundamentally a bankrupt country. It is a country with this
    incredible resource of petroleum, the greatest in the world.
        So I think you will find that with a change of leadership
    and a change of economic policy, that there will be lots of
    people who are ready to invest, and I think the World Bank and
    the IMF in particular will be ready to help start that engine.
        Senator Barrasso. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        Mr. Green. Mr. Chairman, may I just add a comment onto my
    friend's response?
        I think the other aspect of this that makes Venezuela
    different than some of the other challenges that we take on:
    the Venezuela diaspora are talented, educated, absolutely
    devoted to Venezuela. When they return home, and I believe that
    they will, they will provide a surge of energy into that
    economy that will greatly mobilize the rebuilding. This is a
    wonderful--there is a generation of leaders who are just
    waiting for the day. I think as we partner with them, we will
    see great results.
        Senator Barrasso. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        Senator Rubio. Senator Menendez?
        Senator Menendez. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And let me thank
    my colleagues on the subcommittee for allowing me to go first.
        I just want to remark that it is rare that the Chairman and
    Ranking of the full committee and the attendance on both sides
    of the aisle that exists as this hearing takes place--I have
    been around here for a while. I have seen many hearings.
    Sometimes it is sparse, particularly when it relates to Latin
    America. I think it speaks volumes about the interest on a
    bipartisan basis of Congress on this particular issue.
        I want to pick up a moment on what Administrator Green
    said. The Venezuelan diaspora is fantastic, incredible, all the
    more reason we should give them TPS so that they are focused
    not on the concern that they may be deported to a country while
    Maduro is there where their lives are risked but focus on how
    they build a future for Venezuela. I think that speaks for
    another policy reason why Temporary Protected Status is
    eminently a good policy.
        Mr. Abrams, I understand from media reports that you have
    had at least two rounds of secret talks with Maduro's foreign
    minister, Jorge Ariaza. I am not going to ask you about the
    substance in this setting, but can you confirm that these talks
    took place?
        Mr. Abrams. Yes. They were supposed to be confidential,
    but----
        [Laughter.]
        Senator Menendez. As so many other things in Washington are
    supposed to be.
        Mr. Abrams. Yes.
        [Laughter.]
        Senator Menendez. Are you and other Administration
    officials discussing Maduro's future with the Cuban regime?
        Mr. Abrams. No.
        Senator Menendez. Have you personally, or have other
    members of the Administration, spoken to the Russian
    government?
        Mr. Abrams. I have met with the Russian ambassador.
        Senator Menendez. How about the Chinese government?
        Mr. Abrams. Not yet.
        Senator Menendez. OK. I think we need to be sending a very
    clear message: whatever investments you made in Maduro, you are
    not going to get them back under a failed state, at the end of
    the day. Your own interest, at the end of the day, is in
    allowing a democratic process to take place that can restore
    Venezuela to its full vitality, economically and otherwise, and
    I hope we are pushing that message, even with those who are
    working against us right now, and working against President
    Guaido.
        Mr. Abrams. We are, with our ambassadors, in both of those
    capitals.
        Senator Menendez. Can I get a commitment from you to come
    back sometime next week, or soon, to provide a classified
    briefing for the committee on this particular set of subjects?
        Mr. Abrams. Absolutely.
        Senator Menendez. Secondly, I would like to see the
    Administration expand its efforts to coordinate sanctions, an
    issue that will be addressed in my pending legislation. Canada
    has designated dozens of officials for targeted sanctions.
    Europe has done some targeted designations and banned arms
    sales to the Maduro regime, and there are some initial efforts
    underway in Latin America for which I think we need to help our
    allies with capacity building and how to enforce sanctions.
        But for our sanctions to have the greatest impact, as
    someone who has been the architect of many sanctions, other
    countries need to match our efforts, in this particular case
    with Venezuela debt, gold, crypto-currency, and oil.
        What concrete steps are we taking to ensure our partners
    match our sanctions?
        Mr. Abrams. This is really a diplomatic effort, and we have
    been in touch with all 24 of the countries in the EU that
    recognize Guaido, and countries in Latin America that do as
    well, to try to get them, frankly, to do more sanctions, and to
    do more visa revocations. In many cases they have not done any.
    And there are, as you know, a number of officials in the Maduro
    regime who have sent their families abroad. So we have said to
    those countries, for example, why allow your country to be a
    playground for regime officials and their families? We are
    working on that.
        Senator Menendez. Well, I hope we will focus in those
    categories that I mentioned, because we just had a group of
    European parliamentarians here. They asked me about Venezuela.
    They were in concert with their countries in supporting
    President Guaido, and I urged them that they should engage in
    the sanctions effort if they want to internationalize an effort
    to try to create a peaceful transition in Venezuela.
        Now, Maduro and his cronies have stolen billions of dollars
    from the Venezuelan people. What steps is the Administration
    willing to take to return stolen assets to the Venezuelan
    people, separate from what we are doing with oil revenues?
    Should the U.S. or other international stakeholders contemplate
    setting up a fund to hold assets stolen from the Venezuelan
    people?
        Mr. Abrams. I think that is a very good idea. The first
    step is to freeze it; that is, it will not be there if Maduro
    can get his hands on it. We have taken a lot of steps with
    government. We all know about the Bank of England freezing the
    gold. We have approached a lot of other governments. We
    approached several more yesterday, mentioning to those
    governments named banks and asking them to make sure that
    Venezuelan peoples assets are frozen so that they cannot be
    stolen by the regime.
        Senator Menendez. Something I intend to do in my
    legislation. I would love to work with the Administration to
    work on coordinating that.
        Finally, Administrator Green, I understand we have provided
    approximately $195 million in aid to Venezuela and hosting
    countries. Given that U.S. sanctions are denying the Maduro
    regime $15 to $25 million in export revenues per day, I think
    it is safe to say that the U.S. and the international community
    need to do more. I am contemplating in my legislation $400 to
    $500 million in humanitarian aid. Do you think that is a
    reasonable figure?
        Mr. Green. I think it is a start, to be honest. In terms of
    what the humanitarian needs are, as you know, Venezuela in some
    ways is a black box. We have been working with IOM and others
    to begin to analyze and take a look at what that is, also
    taking a look at what the down payments are on such things as
    electoral support for free, fair, credible elections, and this
    is obviously something, as we know from the number of nations
    that have recognized Guaido, that needs to be a multinational
    effort.
        Senator Menendez. Well, since that is the case--two last
    points--why have we not convened a donors conference to bring
    about the preparations for what is necessary to deal with both
    the humanitarian disaster and then eventually the
    reconstruction? And secondly, why do we not purchase goods from
    Colombia, for example? It is a two-way street. We will help the
    Venezuelans. We will also strengthen Colombia and help them as
    they are helping Venezuela and us in this effort. Is that not
    something that we should be pursuing?
        Mr. Green. In the early days after my colleague was named,
    there was an informal donors conference. I agree with you, I
    think it is a good idea to have a broader, more formal donors
    conference. I think that is a great way not only of pulling
    together resources but making very clear that the world stands
    behind the future Venezuela, a democratic future.
        And in terms of purchasing local, we are doing some of
    that, and I want to keep doing more of that. I agree with you
    in the way that you are characterizing it. First off, it is an
    effective and efficient way for us to get assistance more close
    to the target. But secondly, it does provide some economic
    support and stimulus for those communities near the Venezuelan
    border, and that, of course, is a good thing as well.
        Mr. Abrams. Could I just add, Senator? There was on
    February 14th a conference at the OAS in which a number of
    particularly European countries announced pledges. So we have
    taken step one, but as Administrator Green says, we need to do
    a more formal effort.
        Senator Rubio. Senator Gardner?
        Senator Gardner. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        Thank you, Mr. Abrams, Ambassador Green, for your service.
    I commend you for the work that you are doing on this
    incredibly important humanitarian and leadership example.
        The illegitimate Maduro regime has shown a depraved
    indifference to human life, to the human condition, to the
    people of Venezuela, to the Venezuelan nation. But I sense a
    great deal of energy from the people who are in this room for
    President Guaido and the opportunities ahead for a future in
    Venezuela that Maduro has deprived and taken from the people.
        So there is obviously more that Congress can do, obviously
    more that Congress must do. Obviously, Congress will do more.
    But the full faith and power and might of the United States
    behind the people of Venezuela in this effort I think is
    incredible. Fifty-four nations around the globe gathered
    together in this effort. We obviously need more. We need more
    nations to do more, to step up, the donors that Senator
    Menendez talked about, donor nations that Senator Menendez
    talked about, the sanctions, the efforts to strongly condemn,
    to expel, to take and deprive this regime of the funds that it
    is using to continue its atrocities against its own people.
        What more can we do as a Congress to encourage other
    nations to join this coalition?
        Mr. Abrams. Maybe this is undiplomatic, but I think there
    are a number of nations, some in the Caribbean and a couple in
    Europe, that have not yet recognized Juan Guaido. I think,
    actually, if you, if this committee talked to the ambassadors
    of those nations, it does not happen every day, and I think
    that your conversations, your pressure would immediately get
    telegraphed back to those capitals and could make a difference.
        Senator Gardner. Ambassador?
        Mr. Green. Quite frankly, this hearing, and I think having
    more hearings like this, and congressional visits down to some
    of the nations that, as Mr. Abrams pointed to, are perhaps on
    the fence and need to do more. I think the show of clear
    bipartisan support is essential to make it very clear this is
    not about one administration, one U.S. administration, but this
    is the position of the American people, over and over again,
    everywhere you can.
        Senator Gardner. And I hope that as people are listening to
    this hearing, as people read the transcript, they know there is
    no sideline to sit on, to stand on, that this is a call for
    action, this is a call for help, this is a call for recognition
    for the people of Venezuela and the legitimate regime that will
    come, and the Interim President Guaido.
        You mentioned, Mr. Abrams, Russia and Cuba. Could you talk
    a little more about China and their role, their interests, what
    they are doing right now in Venezuela?
        Mr. Abrams. China has lent a lot of money to the Maduro
    regime. In the United Nations, we did see them twice join the
    Russians in vetoes. I had hoped that they might move to
    abstaining, but they have not. And we have made the argument,
    as Senator Menendez said, that they are not going to get their
    money back from a bankrupt Venezuela. They are only going to
    get it back from a Venezuela that is prosperous.
        They have differentiated themselves from the Russians, I
    guess I would say, rhetorically in that the Russians are using
    really Cold War rhetoric about American imperialism and
    colonialism and so forth. The Chinese seem to view this more as
    a commercial proposition: they want their money back. So we
    continue to push them to make what seems to us the only logical
    leap here, that then you should be in favor of steps that will
    bring Venezuela back to prosperity.
        Senator Gardner. Thank you.
        Ambassador Green, is there anything you want to add to
    that?
        Mr. Green. Well, I certainly agree with everything that my
    colleague has said. Again, I think what we need to do over and
    over again is make clear what our purpose is. Our purpose is to
    restore democracy. It is to give the people of Venezuela the
    chance to choose their own future, and that is what we seek to
    do. And, of course, that is a very different model and a very
    different approach from China, Russia, Cuba, and others.
        Senator Gardner. Thank you.
        Mr. Abrams, you mentioned that the talks were supposed to
    be in confidence, or at least not be discussed. But I am
    reminded of a saying that I have heard, that Washington is the
    only place where sound travels faster than light.
        [Laughter.]
        Senator Gardner. Thank you for your time in the hearing
    this morning.
        Senator Rubio. Senator Udall?
        Senator Udall. Thank you, Mr. Chairman and the Ranking
    Member, for these hearings. And thank you to the witnesses for
    being here.
        There is no doubt that the Maduro regime has caused
    widespread misery and suffering in Venezuela, and his followers
    are leading the country down the path of more violence and
    repression of the Venezuelan people. The United States should
    work with its partners in the region to restore democratic
    order and to reduce the threat of increased violence in
    Venezuela and throughout the region.
        However, I am mindful of the long history of U.S.
    interventions in the region, and that history is part of the
    historical memory of Latin America as well. U.S. sanctions have
    given Maduro, and Chavez before him, an easy scapegoat for
    their own failures. They blame their people's suffering on
    ``Yankees.'' Now the President of the United States, some
    members of Congress and others are issuing veiled threats of
    U.S. military intervention and regime change by force. Shannon
    O'Neil, a Council on Foreign Relations expert on Latin America
    and a friend of this committee and a witness before this
    committee, wrote about this regarding the prospect of military
    intervention.
        She says, ``Venezuela is not Granada or Panama, the two
    Latin American countries invaded by the U.S. during the closing
    days of the Cold War. Instead, it is twice the size of Iraq
    with only a slightly smaller population and teeters on the
    verge of chaos. Any invasion requires preparations on a similar
    scale, meaning a 100,000-plus force. U.S. troops are unlikely
    to be welcomed. A February poll shows a majority of
    Venezuelans, including a plurality of those in Venezuela's
    opposition, oppose an invasion. A U.S. military presence would
    play into and would at least, in part, validate Maduro's loudly
    proclaimed imperialist conspiracies.'' I believe that on the
    second panel one of our witnesses, Cynthia Arnson, has come to
    a similar conclusion in terms of military intervention.
        Do either of you believe that a military solution led by
    the United States is a solution to this crisis?
        Mr. Abrams. It is certainly not desirable, and it is not
    the path the Administration is taking.
        Mr. Green. The best way to answer that is to say I have
    been part of absolutely no conversations whatsoever that have
    talked about military intervention.
        Senator Udall. Do you agree that any military intervention
    would need to be approved by this Congress?
        Mr. Abrams. Well, now we are getting into a War Powers Act
    question and hypotheticals about what might lead to a military
    intervention, and I think I should probably not do that,
    certainly not in an open hearing.
        Senator Udall. Well, Mr. Abrams, the simple principle that
    I think people who study our Constitution understand is that
    the Congress, the Congress is the one to declare war, and that
    is basically what I am asking you about. Do you understand
    that? I understand the President's Article 2 authority in terms
    of us being threatened or having an imminent threat, but that
    is what I am asking you about. Do you agree that if we were
    going to go in there in an intervention and declare war, that
    it is the Congress that has to do that?
        Mr. Abrams. You know, I remember President Clinton's
    intervention into, say, Kosovo, and there was a big debate
    about the War Powers Act, and I am just not prepared really to
    get into that debate----
        Senator Udall. I am not debating the War Powers Act. I am
    talking about the constitutional authority of the Congress to
    be the one that declares war, determines interventions.
        Mr. Abrams. You know, you have the constitutional authority
    to declare war. You have the President's authority as Commander
    in Chief. That would be a great subject for a hearing.
        [Laughter.]
        Senator Udall. Okay, good. Well, the Chairman was here
    earlier, and I am sure the subcommittee chairman will pass that
    on, and I will try to do the same.
        Do you think that a civil war would make life better for
    the Venezuelan people, either one of you?
        Mr. Abrams. No, clearly not.
        Senator Udall. Mark?
        Mr. Green. No.
        Senator Udall. Is the State Department working with
    Treasury to help mitigate the impact of sanctions on the
    Venezuelan people, as far as you know? And in light of how the
    Maduro government has weaponized the propaganda of Yankee
    imperialism, what is your plan to counter those charges against
    the American Government and the Lima Group, who we are
    supporting?
        Mr. Abrams. We are working with Treasury. I would say we
    are especially working with USAID on the question of trying to
    make sure that the sanctions affect the regime but not the
    Venezuelan people.
        As to the broader question, I am struck by the unity that
    there really is. The history that you have mentioned has not
    prevented most of the democracies of Latin America and Europe
    in joining the United States in hemispheric and Western unity,
    as reflected in the bipartisan unity here. So the regime's
    arguments about gringos and Yankee imperialism and so forth
    are, at this point in 2019, really falling without much impact.
        Senator Udall. I would just like to quote, because I may
    not be here for keeping the military option on the table and
    all of that kind of thing, and keeping them off balance. The
    witness in the next panel says, ``But this threat has eroded
    the consensus between the United States, the hemispheric
    democracies, and the countries of Europe over how to approach
    the Venezuelan crisis,'' and that is why I am asking these
    questions, to try to get to the heart of where the
    Administration is really at.
        I mean, on the one hand we see a remarkable thing here
    where the President is the most aggressive in terms of using
    force, and yet many of the Administration officials that appear
    before us in a variety of contexts in different committees have
    a totally different line. So it is a little bit of a very
    difficult situation for us to kind of come to grips with this.
    We cannot call him down here in front of the committee, but we
    can get you down here. So there is a stark difference that is
    there.
        Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I appreciate the courtesies of
    running over a little bit.
        Senator Rubio. Mr. Abrams, have any of our international
    partners told us that they do not want to work with us until
    the President stops saying all options are on the table?
        Mr. Abrams. No, none have.
        Senator Rubio. And are there any armed elements of the
    opposition? Is there an armed opposition group?
        Mr. Abrams. There is not. The opposition--it is not really
    opposition anymore. Let's say the legitimate leadership under
    President Guaido wants exclusively peaceful change.
        Senator Rubio. Senator Shaheen?
        Senator Shaheen. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        Thank you both, first of all, for being here today and for
    what you are doing in this very difficult situation.
        I just want to follow up on Senator Udall's question, just
    to be very clear, because I did not hear either of you answer
    it in this way. Are either of you aware of any plans within the
    Administration for any military action in Venezuela? Mr.
    Abrams?
        Mr. Abrams. No, not in the sense you mean it. I mean, there
    are always contingency plans. I do not know how much to get
    into this in an open hearing, but, for example, for the
    protection of every single U.S. embassy around the world, there
    are always such plans. But we are not pursuing that path.
        Senator Shaheen. Mr. Green?
        Mr. Green. I am not.
        Senator Shaheen. Thank you.
        The discussion this morning has been very eloquent about
    the terrible tragedy that is happening in Venezuela and about
    the humanitarian disaster there. But the status of women has
    not been mentioned, and I think it is important to do that,
    because there are more reports coming out about the violence
    that women are facing in Venezuela, that women are facing as
    they cross the border into Colombia. The International Refugee
    Committee said that increasing numbers of women and children
    are fleeing and that as they are fleeing they are facing a
    unique set of risks around sexual assault, kidnapping,
    harassment; that many women have turned to sex work to support
    their families.
        So I wonder, Mr. Green, if you could talk about how U.S.
    assistance is being directed towards the women and children
    specifically who are being affected.
        Mr. Green. Thank you for the question, and I will say in my
    most recent trip down to Cucuta and the centers that I visited,
    it was a disproportionately large number of young mothers who
    were there. That was very, very clear, and they felt special
    pain, not only pain for what they are going through but what
    they are going through for their families. It really was
    heartbreaking, to be honest.
        In terms of specifics and targeted assistance in that way,
    part of it is the hygiene supplies that we pre-position and
    supply. But secondly, you are pointing to something that is
    very important but I do not think very well covered, and that
    is these poor people, as they flee tyranny and hunger and so on
    and so forth, they are very easily exploited.
        So we are working in those communities along the border and
    in other places where we know Venezuelans are fleeing to, to
    try to reinforce and provide some level of protection and
    counseling and places for them to go. It is just one more dark,
    gloomy part of this terrible crisis.
        Mr. Abrams. If I could add, Senator, I have the TIP report
    with me. Venezuela is a Tier 3 country. It does not meet
    minimum standards, and the report itself says, ``Venezuela is a
    source and destination country for men, women, and children
    subjected to sex trafficking and forced labor.'' So it is a
    real problem.
        Senator Shaheen. Thank you. It is just awful, and it
    reflects again the fact that in conflict areas, that it is
    women and children who usually bear the brunt of that conflict,
    and this is another example of that and I think another reason
    why it is so important that legislation like the Women, Peace,
    and Security Act that asks that women be at the table when we
    are negotiating an end to conflicts is so important, because we
    know that that means that whatever is negotiated lasts longer,
    and it also means that there is a lower likelihood that women
    will continue to be placed in positions where they are the
    victims of so many of these issues, sex trafficking, sexual
    assault, all of those concerns.
        So again, thank you both very much for what you are doing.
        Senator Rubio. Senator Kaine?
        Senator Kaine. Thank you, Mr. Chair, and to the witnesses
    for very helpful testimony.
        I want to just acknowledge and applaud the release of a
    Virginia journalist, Cody Weddle, who is from Meadowview,
    Virginia, a Virginia Tech alumnus, who has been in Venezuela
    reporting independently there for a number of years, who was
    arrested and interrogated and released overnight. That is good
    news.
        I want to follow up on comments of my colleagues on this
    side of the aisle about military threat. Having lived in Latin
    America, this notion of blaming problems on Uncle Sam, on
    imperialist Yankees, is very, very serious, and the President's
    comments about military threat I think are a horrible idea. I
    actually think generally the strategy of sanctions, the work
    that you have done to cobble together the global coalition I
    think is very, very good. I think it really creates problems,
    though, if the message gets mixed with a potential military
    threat.
        I have the same concern Senator Udall raised about who it
    is that initiates war. It is Congress, not the President,
    unless there is an imminent threat on the United States, I
    believe. But more than that, I think loose talk about military
    action actually cements and emboldens dictators. They want to
    be able to blame their problems on Uncle Sam, on America, on
    the West. They would love to be able to blame it on somebody
    else. As they are running the economy into the ground, whether
    it is Putin in Russia or Maduro in Venezuela, they would love
    to be able to blame their own mismanagement and failings on
    others. And any loose talk about military action brings up this
    whole history of U.S. military intervention. It gives Maduro
    the ability to claim that the U.S. is interested in petroleum
    or whatever else, and I think it is just really important that
    we stress what our interest is.
        The only interest we have is peace, liberty, and democracy
    for the Venezuelan people. That is it.
        [Spanish language spoken.]
        Senator Kaine. Not military, not oil. There is nothing we
    want for ourselves. We only want peace, liberty, and democracy
    for the Venezuelan people. And I think we need to stress that
    very clearly.
        I want to ask you about you referenced briefly the OAS, and
    I would kind of like to dig into this, because I think you gave
    us maybe a good suggestion.
        I am troubled by the number of Caribbean nations that have
    not been supportive of this global coalition, and I read that
    as a challenge, largely kind of petroleum politics, that
    Venezuela has used petroleum reserves to purchase their
    loyalty. You can kind of understand that in realpolitik. I
    think dialogue is important, and there is an awful lot that we
    can offer, too, to convince some of those nations to hopefully
    join the global coalition in support of the interim government
    and a constitutionally dictated transition to elections and a
    new government.
        So dialogue with the nations that we are talking about.
    What are other strategies that you might suggest for us, or
    what is the Administration pursuing in terms of dialogue with
    nations, especially those in the OAS, to make sure that there
    is more of a consensus within this important hemispheric
    organization to help us out?
        Mr. Abrams. We do have something approaching a consensus on
    the Latin American side, not on the Caribbean side, and it has
    been disappointing, because all those countries are
    democracies, and I think it is for the reasons that you state,
    debt especially, and in some cases joint ventures with pedevesa
    over the years.
        We continue in all those capitals to push them. The
    principal deputy in the Latin American Bureau is in the eastern
    Caribbean right now personally pressing leadership to see if we
    can move them.
        Again, I would say hearing from members of this committee,
    talking to their ambassadors so they can bring that home would
    be useful, and we are working with them. Treasury has been
    working with them and the Energy Department to tell us what the
    problem is, tell us what you are afraid of, and maybe we can
    help you.
        In the case, for example, of Jamaica recently, they
    undertook a few transactions that would reduce their ties, let
    us say, to pedevesa in a very useful way, so they get out from
    under.
        Senator Kaine. Mr. Green?
        Mr. Green. Thank you, Senator. I think one of the ways that
    we do this is to make sure that our humanitarian foot is
    forward. So in the case, for example, of Trinidad and Tobago,
    we have provided $1.6 million in assistance to help identify
    the needs of the Venezuelans who have come to the islands
    looking for ways to tackle the issues of crime and violence and
    human trafficking, and to try to lower the burden, quite
    frankly, that they are feeling. So it is something that we are
    doing regionally.
        I will tell you this: I think the impact of the Venezuelan
    flight in the Caribbean is something that people do not quite
    appreciate. Last year at the Summit of the Americas we were
    beginning to hear it, and that was now many months ago. I am
    sure the numbers have gone way up. It is something where we can
    reach out, we can provide some support, and I think that would
    be very helpful.
        Senator Kaine. That is very helpful. Thank you.
        Thanks, Mr. Chair.
        Senator Rubio. Senator Cruz?
        Senator Cruz. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        Gentlemen, good morning. Thank you for your good work.
        Globally, gold has become a key way that bad actors conduct
    illicit financial activities. In Venezuela, the gold trade is
    Maduro's best and perhaps his last lifeline.
        In 2018 alone, Venezuela exported $900 million worth of
    gold to Turkey. According to the U.S. Treasury Department,
    Turkey has been making large purchases of gold, almost
    certainly including illicit purchases from Venezuela.
        To cut off this lifeline, I have introduced a bill, along
    with Chairman Rubio, that says if a country or bank conducts
    precious metal transactions that are subject to sanctions, as
    moving gold from Venezuela or Iran would be, that the Secretary
    of the Treasury can take those transactions into account when
    deciding about a broader conclusion that such country or bank
    shall be designated as a jurisdiction of primary money
    laundering concern.
        Mr. Abrams, can you please describe the role that illicit
    gold and precious metal transactions plays in sustaining the
    Maduro regime?
        Mr. Abrams. Thanks, Senator. It is critical. What we did on
    pedevesa cut off a lot of cash. The oil they were giving to
    Russia and China was to offset previous debt. They were not
    getting cash. So they lose that cash. Where can they find cash
    today? Gold is one of the very few places, and it is the
    biggest one.
        Senator Cruz. I understand that the Administration is in
    possession of a list of Turkish entities that are moving gold
    for Venezuela based on publicly sourced information. Can you
    outline how the Administration intends to approach these and
    other bad actors?
        Mr. Abrams. First, we talk to the governments in question
    and in some cases the enterprises in question, in almost every
    case, to say you ought to stop doing this. You ought to stop
    doing it because it is wrong, and you ought to stop doing it
    because there are going to be sanctions, and we have had some
    success in other areas of the world in getting companies to say
    okay, we do not want the risk of sanctions, we will stop. We
    have not had that success in the case of gold sales in the
    Middle East more generally.
        Senator Cruz. Mr. Green, what initiatives can USAID
    encourage in Venezuela or other partners in the region to deter
    Maduro's illicit mining and trade of gold and to safeguard the
    supply chain for Venezuelans?
        Mr. Green. Thank you, Senator. Actually, in countries like
    Colombia and Peru, we have well-developed, successful, licit
    mining programs which use environmentally-sound methods for
    mining. Secondly, because it is licit, it actually provides a
    revenue source that can be reinvested in the communities and
    creates good-paying jobs and chokes off the source of illicit
    gold revenues that we know that narcos and criminal gangs too
    often use.
        So I would propose in that day after in Venezuela that we
    ramp up investments like this. This is a way of creating very
    good-paying jobs around which you can raise families and build
    communities.
        Senator Cruz. Thank you.
        Maduro's regime has been holding six Citgo employees,
    including five U.S. citizens who live in Texas, for over a year
    now. The Citgo executives have been detained on baseless
    charges and subjected to harsh imprisonment. It is well past
    time to secure their release, and it is my hope that the new
    Venezuelan government will work with the U.S. to swiftly ensure
    their safe return.
        Mr. Abrams, is the Administration in discussions with
    either the Guaido administration or the Maduro regime on the
    imprisonment of the Citgo executives who are U.S. dual
    nationals? And can you describe what efforts are being made to
    secure their release?
        Mr. Abrams. As you know, Senator, we are unable to get
    consular access to them. The position of the regime is because
    they are also Venezuelan citizens, you do not get to see them.
    So we have not been able to do that.
        It is also true that the church in Venezuela has asked to
    see them on a pastoral visit--refused, no.
        We are in touch with the families. We keep pressing the
    regime because there are two court orders for their release,
    which the regime simply refuses to implement.
        So we keep pressing. We do keep raising it. I am absolutely
    confident that at the point at which Interim President Guaido
    takes over, their release will be very rapid.
        Senator Cruz. Well, good, and I would encourage you to
    continue to make that a high priority.
        A final question for both of you. This is a pivotal time in
    Venezuela's history. It is a time of enormous opportunity, but
    also enormous risk. There are some 3,000 generals in Venezuela.
    Each of those generals now has to decide with whom he stands,
    with the illegitimate and oppressive Maduro regime or with the
    legitimate and recognized Guaido government.
        What do both of you believe could be effective, both
    carrots and sticks, for those 3,000 generals to encourage them
    to stand on the right side of history with the people of
    Venezuela and not to support a dictator on his way out the
    door?
        Mr. Abrams. I would say there are two parts to that, the
    Venezuelan part and the American part. The legitimate National
    Assembly has passed a transition law that speaks of amnesty,
    and there are further debates in the National Assembly in
    Venezuela about saying more about that, being more detailed
    about what an amnesty would consist of.
        On our part, we have made it very clear that sanctions can
    be removed, visa revocations can be reversed, and visas can be
    granted. For those who are actually indicted, that is a
    different story, indicted or convicted. They should have their
    lawyers deal with the Department of Justice. But from the
    Treasury and State point of view, these things are reversible,
    and we are trying to make the argument, and more importantly
    President Guaido and the National Assembly are making the
    argument, that they are open to those who are willing to
    change.
        Senator Cruz. Thank you.
        Senator Rubio. I want to thank both of you for being here
    today. We want to get to our second panel. We appreciate the
    work you are doing and the time you have given us this morning,
    and we thank you again for being with us.
        While we transition, I am going to go ahead and present our
    second panel. I know we have a vote in about 45 minutes.
        I would strongly encourage our witnesses--we have your
    written testimony. I think you both are veterans of appearing
    in the committee. These are our non-government experts. I will
    introduce them as they take their seats here quickly.
        The first is Mr. Eric Farnsworth, the Vice President of the
    Council of the Americas; and Dr. Cynthia Arnson, who is the
    Director of the Wilson Center's Latin America Program.
        I ask those who are here if you would take your seats or
    transition out because I want to make sure whoever stays gets
    their questions in. I want to make sure our testimony is in.
        Dr. Arnson, we will start with you, if that is okay. Are
    you ready?
        Thank you both for being here.

        STATEMENT OF CYNTHIA J. ARNSON, DIRECTOR, LATIN AMERICA
      PROGRAM, WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS,
                             WASHINGTON, DC

        Dr. Arnson. Great. Thank you, Chairman Rubio, Ranking
    Member Cardin, members of the subcommittee, Senator Menendez,
    who is joining us from Senate Foreign Relations. It is a
    privilege to be here.
        I think both sides of the aisle have adequately described
    the disaster, humanitarian and economic and political, that
    Venezuela has come to, so I will skip over that part of my
    testimony and instead focus on the options for U.S. policy,
    both their advantages and their risks.
        First, sanctions. Building on the actions that started
    under the Obama Administration and now intensified by the Trump
    Administration, there has been a dramatic escalation in the
    range of individual, financial, and now petroleum sanctions on
    Venezuela. The purpose is obviously to increase substantially
    and unacceptably the political, economic, and personal costs of
    the status quo such that people who support the regime
    currently might be impelled to break with it.
        It appears that the pressures are aimed at creating
    fissures in the armed forces, which, as we all know, are
    Maduro's key source of support. These divisions could emerge.
    Some have already, small ones in the leadership, or become more
    pronounced, especially as the economic sanctions are in place
    for a longer period of time and have a greater impact.
        However, there is no guarantee that even the most punishing
    sanctions will serve to divide the military hierarchy. There
    is, in fact, a risk that these sanctions, as has been discussed
    by Senator Kaine a moment ago, will contribute to greater
    internal coherence of the regime, a kind of circling of the
    wagons against foreign efforts.
        There is also the devastating human cost of the oil
    sanctions.
        The issue of humanitarian aid needs to be depoliticized. It
    must adhere to the principles of neutrality, impartiality,
    independence, and I believe that the United Nations, many of
    its agencies--UNICEF, the World Health Organization--and the
    local Red Cross, the International Committee of the Red Cross,
    and other relief organizations on the ground in Venezuela are
    best positioned to provide expanded assistance.
        Many of you have made reference to the impact of the flow
    of Venezuelan refugees on the countries of the region. I will
    not go over the numbers. We just heard from USAID Administrator
    Mark Green. Between USAID and the State Department's Bureau of
    Population, Refugees and Migration, the United States has
    pledged a significant amount of assistance, but it is still a
    fraction of the $738 million that is called for in 2019 alone,
    called for by the U.N. Regional Refugee and Migrant Response
    Plan, a joint program of the United Nations' High Commission
    for Refugees and the International Organization of Migration.
        Colombia alone, according to that report, requires $315
    million, which is more than double what the United States has
    provided to the entire region. I believe that we should put
    actions behind our words and provide resources that are
    commensurate with our capacity and our stated foreign policy
    objectives.
        I commend Senator Rubio, Senator Menendez, people on both
    sides of the aisle who have encouraged the Administration to
    grant Temporary Protected Status to Venezuelans in the United
    States, but this should be coupled with an expedited review of
    asylum claims. Another option is to raise the highly
    restrictive cap on refugee admissions to the United States,
    which in 2019 hit an historic low.
        I will not go over the issue of military intervention. My
    remarks have already been quoted by Senator Udall. I think
    continued talk of a military option, as much as it is useful in
    keeping the regime off balance, is irresponsible, would spark a
    regional war and be an incentive for Colombian guerillas from
    the ELN, the FARC, those who refuse to demobilize, and perhaps
    even some of those who did demobilize, to join up arms against
    that.
        It is possible that the combination of all of the
    pressures--diplomatic, economic--that the United States and the
    international community have brought to bear can bring about a
    change of government in Venezuela, or even the collapse of the
    authoritarian regime. I believe, however, that it is also
    possible that it will survive, much as Assad's Syria has
    survived, becoming even more repressive in its determination to
    cling to power, expelling more of its citizens, and turning
    further to allies such as Russia, Turkey, Cuba, as it seeks
    survival.
        I share the goal that many have stated, that policy of the
    United States and of the international community should be to
    create the conditions for a free, fair election in Venezuela in
    which the opposition can openly compete without disadvantage
    and take office should it win. That goal will require
    institutional reform, especially of the Electoral Council. It
    probably also requires international observation and
    supervision.
        I do not believe it requires the end of Chavismo as a
    political force. I was heartened to hear people reiterate that
    concept. And it does foresee its integration into a functioning
    and pluralistic democracy.
        I do not believe that a transition requires the immediate
    purging of the military, or even the extradition of Venezuelan
    officials indicted by the United States to face justice in this
    country. These are not questions about which there is any
    ambivalence in the moral or ethical sense. These are strictly
    practical considerations, how one provides an off ramp for
    those who are currently aligned with the regime to break with
    the current government.
        Negotiations in Venezuela have acquired a very bad name.
    They have been tried for many years. The Maduro regime has used
    them to buy time, divide the opposition, and avoid concessions.
    I would put on the table now the question as to whether a
    hurting stalemate, a concept that is mostly used in conflict
    resolution, is at hand. I believe that it is, and I believe
    that one possible vehicle is the European Union-led, with Latin
    American participation, international Contact Group, which does
    not talk about negotiations. It talks about creating the
    conditions for a free and fair election as the subject of talks
    with the government.
        Thank you very much.
        [The prepared statement of Dr. Arnson follows:]

                    Prepared Statement of Cynthia J. Arnson

        Chairman Rubio, Ranking Member Cardin, and distinguished members of
    the Subcommittee, It is my privilege to address you today on the crisis
    in Venezuela and options for U.S. policy.\1\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        \1\ The views expressed in this testimony are the author's own and
    do not necessarily reflect the views of the Wilson Center. I am
    grateful to my colleagues Benjamin Gedan, Rob Litwak, Catalina Casas,
    and Madalyn Medrano for their insights and research support.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        The dimensions of the governance, economic, and humanitarian crisis
    in Venezuela are well documented and well known. Equally well known are
    the surprising and heady events that have taken place in Venezuela
    since a heretofore unknown politician, Juan Guaido, became interim
    president on January 23, 2019, inspiring the internal opposition and
    galvanizing a broad international response. As of March 5, 2019, fifty-
    four countries of the Western Hemisphere, Europe, and Asia have
    recognized Mr. Guaido as Venezuela's legitimate president, rejecting
    the results of a deeply flawed election held in May 2018 in which
    President Nicolas Maduro was ratified for a second term. A February
    2019 poll by the Venezuelan polling firm Datanalisis has put Guaido's
    support at 61 percent of the population, compared to 14 percent for
    Maduro, a historic low. The combination of domestic and international
    pressures has raised hopes as perhaps never before that Venezuela's
    experiment with ``Twenty-First Century Socialism'' will end, giving way
    to democratic change.
        Yet there are bumps on the road. Both Maduro and Guaido appear to
    believe that time is on their side. Despite hundreds of defections of
    army and National Guard foot soldiers, the Venezuelan armed forces and
    especially its senior leadership have remained loyal to Maduro. For how
    long will that continue? Will crippling U.S. sanctions, now extended to
    Venezuela's all-important oil industry, divide chavismo? Or will
    sanctions rally even disaffected chavistas to swallow their criticisms
    and oppose outside ``aggression?'' As sanctions deepen an already
    catastrophic humanitarian situation, will a desperate public lose faith
    in Guaido's and the opposition's ability to deliver relief from their
    crushing personal circumstances? Will the Maduro administration find a
    way to evade the sanctions, especially by finding other customers for
    Venezuelan oil? How can the United States and others in the
    international community best position themselves to enhance the
    possibilities for a democratic transition that avoids or minimizes the
    potential for political violence or the use of force?
                          the dimensions of the crisis
        President Nicolas Maduro presided over a skewed electoral process
    in May 2018, in which the government prohibited the principal
    opposition candidates from running and other practices affected the
    election's fairness and independence.\2\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        \2\ An especially pernicious tactic was the placing of polling
    stations next to sites where Venezuelans had to renew their
    ``Fatherland Card'' (Carnet de la Patria), used to allot government-
    subsidized bags of food. See Michael Penfold, ``Food, Technology, and
    Authoritarianism in Venezuela's Elections,'' April 18, 2018, https://
    www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/food-technology-and-authoritarianism-
    venezuelas-elections. A resolution passed by the Organization of
    American States on June 5, 2018, said that the Presidential election
    ``lack[ed] legitimacy'' and did not comply with international
    standards. The resolution passed, 19-4, with 11 abstentions. See http:/
    /www.oas.org/en/media--center/press--release.asp?sCodigo=S-32/18.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Over the last several years, and especially since a wave of
    demonstrations in 2014 challenged his rule, Maduro has deployed a full
    range of repressive tactics to quell dissent and eliminate challenges
    to his authority. Government troops have killed hundreds of unarmed
    demonstrators, while under the guise of fighting crime, hundreds more
    have been executed in poor neighborhoods, many of them by a police unit
    loyal to Maduro, the Fuerzas de Acciones Especiales (Special Actions
    Forces, FAES), created in 2017. According to the leading human rights
    group Foro Penal, the number of political prisoners stood at 288 in
    December 2018. Torture of prisoners is commonplace, including--and
    perhaps especially--of members of the military accused of plotting
    against the government.\3\ Armed pro-government paramilitaries known as
    colectivos have terrorized government opponents, most recently and
    visibly by opening fire alongside members of the National Guard on
    activists attempting to deliver humanitarian aid to Venezuela from
    Colombian and Brazilian territory in late February 2019. Street crime
    is rampant. Venezuela's Violence Observatory reports that the country's
    rate of homicides in 2018 was the highest in Latin America, exceeding
    even the countries of Central America's Northern Triangle.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        \3\ See Human Rights Watch, ``Venezuela: Suspected Plotters
    Tortured,'' January 0, 2019, https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/01/09/
    venezuela-suspected-plotters-tortured.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Venezuela's recent economic decline is breathtaking. Gross Domestic
    Product has shrunk by nearly half in the last 5 years, a period roughly
    corresponding to the date of Maduro's 2013 inauguration. According to
    oil industry sources, the output of the country's State-run oil
    industry, which provides over 90 percent of Venezuela's foreign
    exchange, has dropped by two-thirds, from approximately 3.1 million
    barrels per day (bpd) in 1998 when President Hugo Chavez was first
    elected to 1.15 million bpd in December 2018. The International
    Monetary Fund estimates that inflation in 2018 reached 1 million
    percent; and if that figure seems incomprehensible, the IMF predicts
    that inflation will reach a staggering 10 million percent this year. A
    recent survey by three of Venezuela's leading universities documented
    that fully 87 percent of the Venezuelan population live in poverty (up
    from 48.4 percent in 2014). This is not, as the Venezuelan government
    contends, the result of sanctions or foreign hostility, but the product
    of chronic mismanagement, staggering levels of corruption, and
    relentless hostility to the private sector, reflected in the
    expropriation of thousands of private companies over the last two
    decades. Adding to the misery of ordinary Venezuelans is the collapse
    of the health care system. The World Health Organization and Pan-
    American Health Organization have documented the extent to which
    hospitals and clinics lack the basic medicines and supplies to provide
    even a minimum level of care, and once-eradicated diseases such as
    measles, tuberculosis, diphtheria are on the rise--and are being
    exported to Venezuela's neighbors through migratory flows.
        In the face of political repression and economic calamity, as of
    February 2019 3.4 million Venezuelans had fled their homes in search of
    basic survival. The overwhelming majority have left since 2015.
    According to the United Nations, that is an average of 5,000 a day. In
    the words of UN-IOM Joint Special Representative of Venezuelan Refugees
    and Migrants Eduardo Stein, the Venezuelan migrant flows constitute
    ``the largest displacement of people in the history of Latin America.''
    \4\ Colombia alone has over 1.1 million Venezuelans, followed by Peru
    (506,000), Chile (288,000), Ecuador (221,000), Argentina (130,000), and
    Brazil (96,000). The absolute numbers that have fled to countries of
    the Caribbean--Curacao, Aruba, Trinidad and Tobago, the Dominican
    Republic, and others--are smaller, but constitute a much larger
    percentage of the island nations' population overall.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        \4\ Coordination Platform for Refugees and Migrants from Venezuela,
    Regional Refugee and Migrant Response Plan, January--December 2019.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            options for u.s. policy
        Over the past several years, and building on initial actions taken
    by the Obama Administration, the Trump administration has dramatically
    escalated a range of sanctions--individual, financial, and most
    recently on the oil sector--in an effort to punish the anti-democratic
    and corrupt behavior of senior Venezuelan officials and to impose
    hardships that could lead to regime change. Over the last two
    administration, the most senior levels of the U.S. Government have also
    worked to forge a hemispheric consensus in favor of strong multilateral
    action against the Maduro government. Latin American and some Caribbean
    countries themselves, deeply affected by the flood of Venezuelan
    refugees, have acted through the Lima Group \5\ and the Organization of
    American States to condemn the actions of the Maduro government and
    call for free elections, respect for human rights, and the delivery of
    humanitarian aid. Countries of the European Union have added their
    voices in support of these objectives. The Venezuelan opposition and
    Juan Guaido in particular have called on the international community to
    intensify pressure on the Maduro administration, join the United States
    in financial and other sanctions, and help deliver humanitarian aid.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        \5\ The Lima Group member States are Argentina, Brazil, Canada
    Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama,
    Paraguay, and Peru.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        What follows is a discussion of the benefits and risks of various
    approaches available to the United States and others in the
    international community in support of a democratic outcome in
    Venezuela.
                                   sanctions
        The purpose of sanctions is to increase substantially--and
    unacceptably--the political, economic, and personal costs of the status
    quo, such that supporters of the regime have reason to break with
    Maduro. The logic of sanctions is to change the calculus of core
    interest groups that keep the regime in power; sanctions are thus part
    of a strategy of coercive diplomacy aimed at modifying behavior or
    producing regime change.\6\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        \6\ 1ASee Robert S. Litwak, Outlier States: American Strategies to
    Change, Contain, or Engage Regimes (Washington, DC. and Baltimore:
    Woodrow Wilson Center Press and The Johns Hopkins University Press,
    2012).
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        The literature on regime change indicates that divisions within the
    ruling elite of an authoritarian regime can make a democratic opening
    possible. In the case of Venezuela, economic pressure appears directed
    at creating fissures in the armed forces, Maduro's key source of
    support. These divisions might emerge--or become more pronounced--in
    light of the drastic economic impact of recently imposed U.S. oil
    sanctions. The effects of the oil sanctions will build over time, but
    their true political impact may not be known for many months.
        However, there is no guarantee that even the most punishing
    sanctions will serve to divide the military hierarchy. The top echelons
    of the Venezuelan armed forces are deeply involved in corruption and
    organized crime,\7\ control key sectors of the economy (the State-owned
    oil company PDVSA, the mining industry, and food distribution, among
    others) and have a great deal to lose by abandoning the regime. There
    is the risk that sanctions will contribute to greater internal
    coherence, a `circling of the wagons' against foreign efforts to topple
    the government. This appears to be the case, at least in the short run.
    For example, when Juan Guaido and international relief agencies
    attempted to deliver humanitarian aid from across the border in
    Colombia and Brazil in late February, senior members of the armed
    forces remained united in their determination to block the supplies.
    Backed by the colectivos, government troops resorted to violence,
    killing a number of people and injuring hundreds. Recent interviews
    with chavistas also provide initial anecdotal evidence that even those
    critical of the country's leadership and direction reluctantly back the
    Maduro government in the face of U.S. pressure.\8\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        \7\ See InSight Crime, ``Venezuela: A Mafia State?'' 2018, https://
    www.insightcrime.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Venezuela-a-Mafia-
    State-InSight-Crime-2018.pdf.
        \8\ Ivan Briscoe, ``Will Maduro's Supporters Abandon Him?'' Foreign
    Affairs, February 25, 2019.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        There is also the devastating human cost of the oil sanctions,
    given the Maduro government's dependence on oil revenues to import food
    and medicine. As recommended by the Lima Group--and to mitigate the
    additional toll that sanctions will impose on already impoverished
    Venezuelans--the U.S. Government and others in the international
    community should avoid politicizing the issue of humanitarian aid. To
    be effective, humanitarian aid must adhere to the principles of
    neutrality, impartiality, and independence. United Nations agencies,
    the local Red Cross, the International Committee of the Red Cross, and
    others relief organizations on the ground in Venezuela can provide
    expanded assistance that is need-based and free of political
    objectives. In addition, the United States should consider partially
    lifting oil sanctions against Venezuela in order to permit revenues
    from the sale of oil to be used strictly for the import of essential
    food and medicine.\9\ This assistance must be distributed by a neutral
    third party in Venezuela, not the government. It also must take place
    under international supervision, to avoid the corruption that has
    plagued such programs in the past.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        \9\ A similar argument is made by Francisco Rodriguez, ``Why
    Venezuela needs an oil-for-food programme, Financial Times, February
    27, 2019.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
     helping nations cope with the regional impacts of venezuela's meltdown
        The accelerated collapse of Venezuela's economy will push ever more
    Venezuelans to migrate to neighboring countries. The United Nations
    reported in February that it expects the number of refugees to reach
    5.3 million by the end of 2019, a more than 55 percent in just 1 year.
    Latin American countries have done a remarkable job in issuing
    residence permits and other documents to regularize the status of
    migrants, allowing them access public services and permission to work.
    Goodwill and generosity aside, however, the countries of the region
    simply do not have the service delivery capacity or financial resources
    to continue to address the emergency needs of such massive refugee
    flows or to absorb them on a permanent basis. All of the recipient
    nations are developing countries with their own challenges, including
    poverty, unemployment and informality, and the poor quality of
    government services such as health and education. It is only a matter
    of time before what have been up to now sporadic outbursts of violence
    and xenophobia aimed at refugees become more frequent and corrosive to
    the democratic and social fabric of Venezuela's neighbors. Given Latin
    America's overall lackluster economic performance in recent years, it
    is likely that resentment will grow among native-born populations.
        The U.S. Government, through USAID and the State Department's
    Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration, has pledged over $152
    million between fiscal years 2017-2019 for the Venezuela regional
    response. This is a significant amount, but still a fraction of the
    $738 million called for in 2019 in the UN's 2019 Regional Refugee and
    Migrant Response Plan. Colombia alone requires over $315 million, more
    than double what the United States has pledged to the entire region. It
    is risky in the current U.S. budget and political climate to call for
    higher levels of foreign aid. But the crisis in Venezuela has been
    elevated to a position of central concern to President Trump, the
    highest levels of his administration, and the U.S. Congress. As
    sanctions accelerate Venezuela's economic freefall, we should
    demonstrate our commitment to mitigating the additional suffering
    caused by these actions by providing resources commensurate with our
    capacity and stated foreign policy objectives.
        Leading by example also requires that we treat Venezuelans who are
    in the United States or wish to come here with the same compassion
    exhibited by Venezuela's neighbors. I commend Senator Rubio and his
    colleagues on both sides of the aisle, and in both the House and
    Senate, who have encouraged the administration to grant Temporary
    Protected Status to Venezuelans in this country. While this normalizes
    the status of Venezuelans already in the United States, it does not by
    itself provide relief to those who have yet to enter. To accommodate
    Venezuelans who are compelled by circumstances to migrate, approval of
    TPS should be coupled with the expedited review of asylum claims.
    Another alternative is to raise the highly restrictive cap on refugee
    admissions to the United States, which in 2019 hit a historic low.
                             military intervention
        Since President Trump first spoke publicly of a military option in
    August 2017, numerous senior U.S. officials have reiterated that ``all
    options are on the table.'' There is undoubtedly psychological value in
    keeping the Maduro government guessing and off-balance with respect to
    U.S. intentions. But this threat has eroded the consensus between the
    United States, hemispheric democracies, and the countries of Europe
    over how to approach the Venezuelan crisis. I personally believe that
    the likelihood of U.S. military intervention in Venezuela is low. That
    said, one should not underestimate the drastic consequences for
    regional stability should it occur. Military action would undoubtedly
    provoke an armed response from Colombia's ELN guerrillas, many of whom
    are based in Venezuelan territory where they have a significant
    presence in the illegal mining of gold.\10\ Some 1,500-2,000 members of
    Colombia's FARC guerrillas who refused to lay down their weapons
    following the 2016 peace agreement would also undoubtedly join the
    fray, as perhaps, would even some FARC members who did demobilize but
    whose lives remain precarious. The end result would be the
    regionalization of a conflict in which thousands of seasoned combatants
    come to the aid of the "Bolivarian revolution." Armed colectivos,
    estimated to number in the tens of thousands, have no battle training
    but are capable of waging a dirty, urban guerrilla war. In such
    circumstances, continued talk of a military option is nothing short of
    irresponsible.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        \10\ International Crisis Group, ``Gold and Grief in Venezuela's
    Violent South,'' February 28, 2019,https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-
    america-caribbean/andes/venezuela/073-gold-and-grief-venezuelas-
    violent-south.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    is a pacted regime transition an option?
        It is possible that the combination of internal and external
    pressure on the Maduro administration that we are currently witnessing
    is sufficient to bring about a change of government or even the
    collapse of the authoritarian regime. It is also possible, however,
    that the regime will survive, becoming even more repressive in its
    determination to cling to power, expelling even more of its hungry
    citizens, and turning further to allies such as Russia (to purchase
    Venezuelan oil and provide some food and medicine) Turkey (to monetize
    Venezuelan gold), and others to mitigate the effects of U.S. sanctions.
    The role of Cuban advisers in identifying and neutralizing internal
    threats from within the armed forces is likely to increase, especially
    in light of increased U.S. hostility to the Cuban regime.
        Theories of transition, whether from dictatorship to democracy or
    from war to peace, emphasize the role of ``hurting stalemates'' \11\ in
    which the cost of continuing on a certain path appears higher than the
    cost of seeking an alternative. ``Hurting stalemates'' can emerge as a
    result of objective conditions--huge battlefield reversals for one side
    in an armed conflict, for example. But they are also highly subjective,
    rooted in the perceptions of key leaders as to their future with and
    without a negotiated outcome.\12\ Influencing perceptions requires
    offering incentives in addition to meting out punishment. The contours
    of what a negotiated settlement in Venezuela could look like require
    extensive consultation. The goal, however, is straightforward--to
    create the conditions for a free and fair election in Venezuela in
    which the opposition can openly compete without disadvantage and assume
    office should it win. Does that goal require institutional reform,
    especially of the electoral council? Yes. Does it require international
    observation and perhaps even supervision of the process? Again, yes.
    Does it require the end of chavismo as a political force, or its
    integration into a functioning, pluralistic democracy? No to the first,
    yes to the second. Does it require the immediate purging of the
    military, or the extradition of Venezuelan officials indicted by the
    United States to face justice in this country? I believe the answer is
    no.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        \11\ I. William Zartman, ``Ripening Conflict, Ripe Moment, Formula,
    and Mediation,'' Bendahmane and McDonald, eds., Perspectives on
    Negotiation: Four Case Studies and Interpretations (Washington, DC.:
    Foreign Service Institute, 1986).
        \12\ Cynthia J. Arnson, ed., Comparative Peace Processes in Latin
    America (Washington, DC. and Palo Alto: Woodrow Wilson Center Press and
    Stanford University Press, 1999. 451-54.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Successful democratic transitions unfold over time, guaranteeing
    initially a basic set of new rules of the game, the preservation of the
    core interests of key actors with the power to threaten or halt the
    transition, and the establishment of processes for the channeling of
    differences. They require flexibility regarding preconditions and
    significant and at times deeply distasteful compromises among former
    antagonists.\13\ Negotiations in the Venezuelan context have an
    extremely bad name. They were used by Maduro for years to buy time,
    divide the opposition, and avoid concessions. The question is whether
    in today's circumstances a true "hurting stalemate" is at hand. I
    believe that it is, and that it is therefore up to us to marshal the
    imagination to identify and commit to the needed compromises to bring
    about a democratic and non-violent outcome to Venezuela's current
    tragedy.\14\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        \14\ See Abraham F. Lowenthal, ``Trump can't solve Venezuela's
    crisis alone. Achieving peace will require difficult compromises, not
    force,'' NBC News, February 1, 2019; and International Crisis Group,
    ``Negotiating an Exit from Venezuela's Bruising Deadlock,'' March 4,
    2019.
        \15\ The EU-led International Contact Group could provide a
    mechanism that avoids the pitfalls of past negotiations with Maduro.
    Its goals are two-fold: ``i) establish the necessary guarantees for a
    credible electoral process, within the earliest timeframe possible; ii)
    enable the urgent delivery of assistance in accordance with
    international humanitarian principles.'' The group includes
    representatives of the EU, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, the
    Netherlands, Portugal, the UK, and Sweden as well as Bolivia, Costa
    Rica, Ecuador, and Uruguay. See https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/
    headquarters-homepage/57788/international-contact-group%E2%80%93-
    meeting-7-february_en. See also, David Smilde and Geoff Ramsey, ``El
    Grupo de Contacto Internacional: la mejor oportunidad de Venezuela,''
    New York Times en Espanol, February 12, 2019.

        Senator Rubio. Mr. Farnsworth?

     STATEMENT OF ERIC FARNSWORTH, VICE PRESIDENT, COUNCIL OF THE
                        AMERICAS, WASHINGTON, DC

        Mr. Farnsworth. Mr. Chairman, good morning. And good
    morning to Mr. Ranking Member, Mr. Menendez, Mr. Cruz, and from
    my home State of Virginia, of course, Mr. Kaine. Thank you for
    the invitation again to appear before all of you. It is a real
    privilege.
        Before I begin my remarks, let me reiterate comments that
    have already been made by several members of the subcommittee
    about the bipartisan nature of this issue. This is huge, it is
    fundamental, and it puts the United States behind this effort.
    I think, first of all, that is critically important. But
    second, I want to thank the members of the subcommittee in
    particular for your leadership and for the way that you have
    positioned this issue. I believe that that is fundamental and
    very, very important, so thank you.
        Let me give you the bottom line first, if I may. I believe
    Chavismo has turned Venezuela into a ruined state. The nation
    that boasts the world's largest proven oil reserves is an
    economic basket case, wracked by hyperinflation, shrinking
    economic growth, food and medical shortages, and criminal
    bands, including officially sanctioned drug traffickers, and
    street crime. The private sector is prostrate, and investment
    has essentially dried up. Oil production, which is the
    lifeblood of the economy, has collapsed through lack of
    investment, unimaginable corruption, and the loss of essential
    human capital. Abundant natural resources such as gold, which
    we have already heard about, are being plundered, leading to a
    full-scale assault on Venezuela's fragile Amazonian ecosystem.
        As the economy has soured, Nicolas Maduro has tightened
    control. Every institution except the National Assembly has
    been bent to his will. The rule of law has been thoroughly
    corrupted. The press has been coopted or muzzled, and
    journalists harassed and detained, and we have already heard
    about Cody Weddle and Jorge Ramos in this hearing this morning.
    Social media is being monitored actively. Venezuela's
    intelligence and security services, and other state functions,
    are strongly influenced, if not directed, by thousands of
    Cubans embedded in the regime.
        Mr. Chairman, outsiders have already intervened in
    Venezuela and continue to do so. With more than 10 percent of
    Venezuela's total population now outside the nation and more
    leaving every day, we are witnessing the worst manmade
    humanitarian tragedy of the modern era in the Western
    Hemisphere.
        The United States has received thousands of Venezuelans,
    and bipartisan legislation has been introduced--we have already
    talked about this--to provide TPS to some 72,000 Venezuelans
    who are already here.
        The dramatic return to Venezuela this week of Interim
    President Juan Guaido has given renewed hope to the Venezuelan
    people. His task, moving Venezuela toward free and fair
    elections, is greatly complicated by Maduro's continued
    occupation of Miraflores Palace. With Maduro's departure it
    would be possible to contemplate a successful re-launch of
    Venezuela's democratic system, including the release of
    political prisoners, restoring press freedoms, and
    depoliticizing electoral mechanisms, and that is just the
    beginning.
        Reconstruction will also be long and arduous. The new
    government will require breathing room to get itself
    established, no doubt. Quick disbursing aid from the
    international community is therefore essential.
        Citizens of Venezuela must be convinced that their lives
    will meaningfully improve under democracy. Transparency and
    enforceable rule of law are key to this issue. It will be of
    little benefit, in my view, to replace existing corruption with
    new corruption. Faith in the new democratic government will be
    fragile and can easily be destroyed without attention to such
    issues.
        Venezuela was at one point Latin America's wealthiest
    nation. Someday it may be again. Meanwhile, the humanitarian
    tragedy caused by Chavismo and its leaders gets worse every
    day. The Maduro regime has shown it would rather kill its own
    people than allow foreign aid into the country to help them.
    Continually escalating sanctions, including visa restrictions,
    are therefore an appropriate response. Ultimately, however, the
    regime will have to depart for lasting recovery and true
    reconstruction to begin.
        Mr. Chairman, I want to thank you again today for the
    opportunity to testify before you and the subcommittee, and I
    look forward to your questions.
        [The prepared statement of Mr. Farnsworth follows:]

                     Prepared Statement of Eric Farnsworth

        Good morning, Mr. Chairman, Mr. Ranking Member, and Members of the
    Subcommittee. It is a privilege to appear before you today to discuss
    U.S.-Venezuela relations and what it will take to return that proud
    nation to a vibrant democratic path. Thank you for the attention that
    you are bringing to these important issues, and for your leadership in
    addressing them, which has been critical. We very much appreciate your
    strong, focused, bipartisan interest in restoring Venezuela's future to
    the Venezuelan people, and look forward to supporting your efforts
    moving ahead.
                       outlines of the venezuelan crisis
        To give you the bottom line first: Venezuela has been wrecked by
    Chavismo. By now the outlines of the economic, political, and
    humanitarian crisis are well-known.
        The nation that boasts the world's largest proven oil reserves is
    an economic basket case, wracked by hyperinflation, shrinking economic
    growth, food and medical shortages, and criminal bands and street
    crime. The private sector is prostrate and investment has essentially
    dried up. Oil production--the lifeblood of the economy--has collapsed
    through lack of investment, unimaginable corruption, and the loss of
    essential human capital. U.S. purchases of oil have steadily declined,
    even before sanctions. Much of the oil production that remains is
    either given outright to Cuba or delivered to China, Russia, and others
    through sweetheart deals. Abundant natural resources such as gold are
    being plundered by the regime and others including recalcitrant FARC
    and ELN guerrillas seeking safe-haven from Colombia, leading to a full-
    scale assault on Venezuela's fragile Amazonian ecosystem which may
    never recover.
        Even as the economy has soured, the Maduro regime has tightened its
    control on the Venezuelan people. Every institution of the State except
    the National Assembly has been bent to the will of the executive. The
    rule of law has been thoroughly corrupted. The press has been
    shuttered, co-opted, and muzzled, and journalists harassed and
    detained. Social media is monitored.
        Increasingly, through technology sold by China and Russia and
    applied under their and also Cuban tutelage, the Maduro regime has
    taken steps surreptitiously to identify and track both regime
    supporters and also those who do not support the regime. Its
    intelligence and security services and other State functions are
    strongly influenced if not directed by thousands of Cuban personnel
    embedded in State organs. Outside intervention has already occurred and
    continues to occur in support of the Maduro regime.
        From the humanitarian perspective, with more than 10 percent of
    Venezuela's total population now outside the Nation and more leaving
    every day, we are witnessing the worst man-made humanitarian tragedy of
    the modern era in the Western Hemisphere. Refugees are flowing out of
    Venezuela's porous borders into Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and
    even as far away as Chile and Spain, in addition to, among other
    places, the small islands of the Caribbean that can be reached by boat.
    Needless to say, virtually none of these economies have the absorptive
    capacity to receive significant population inflows from Venezuela,
    especially over the longer term. For its part, the United States has
    already received thousands of Venezuelans with more on the way, and, on
    a bipartisan basis, legislation has been introduced to provide
    Temporary Protected Status for 18 months for some 72,000 Venezuelans
    already here.
                    next steps toward democratic restoration
        The dramatic return to Venezuela of interim President Juan Guaido
    earlier this week has given a renewed spark of hope to the Venezuelan
    people. His courageous acceptance of the burden of leadership has led
    to threats against him and his family, consistent with similar tactics
    employed by the Maduro regime against its political opponents:
    harassment and arrest, exile, or even death. Guaido's actions have
    unified the opposition and provided the Venezuelan people with one
    individual around whom to rally.
        Nicolas Maduro's May 2018 ``re-election'' was a farce. Although he
    continues to occupy the Miraflores Palace, his term in office ended on
    January 10, 2019, and his efforts to remain as leader thereafter by
    proclaiming himself president and fraudulently re-inaugurating himself
    have been widely rejected by the international community. Under
    Venezuela's Chavez-promulgated constitution, in the absence of an
    elected president the leader of the National Assembly is recognized as
    the interim president, with a mandate to establish conditions for and
    to oversee free and fair elections to determine the next president.
    This the role into which Guaido has been thrust.
        His task is complicated. Because the Maduro regime will never allow
    free and fair elections to occur, the regime will have to leave office
    and, likely, depart the country altogether, as a condition precedent
    for such elections. Regime departure would allow for the relaunching of
    Venezuela's fully politicized and corrupted electoral machinery, from
    voter lists both inside and outside Venezuela, to voting machines free
    from irregularities and cyber manipulation, to the establishment of a
    fully independent body of non-partisan electoral authorities.
    Candidates for office will have to be restored through the release from
    arrest and the return from exile of leading opposition political
    figures. A democratic renewal will require the restoration of press
    freedoms which have been systematically destroyed by the regime, ending
    State control of media and censorship in order to reach those with
    limited access to alternative media and technology. It will also
    require a significant in-country presence of professional elections
    systems officials not just election-day monitors, with a mandate to
    restore procedural independence from any government or political party.
    It will require enhanced physical security both in the cities and rural
    areas, to prevent harassment and intimidation of voters, especially in
    areas with a strong Chavista overlay. And it will also require, on the
    economic front, immediate humanitarian assistance and the restoration
    of functioning economic signals so that Venezuelans will be able to
    return home to their native country both as voters and also as pilgrims
    and pioneers in the restoration of a nation.
                         toward economic reconstruction
        Reconstruction will be long and arduous. It will be politically
    complicated. Transparency and certain and enforceable rule of law will
    be key. Venezuela's institutions have been so thoroughly corrupted by
    Chavismo that the faith of the people can only be restored by a
    tangible indication that their lives under a freely and fairly elected
    government will meaningfully improve.
        Initial steps for reconstruction will have to include restoring the
    value of the national currency and the slaying of hyperinflation,
    unifying and rationalizing policies that enable massive corruption
    including exchange rate policy, restoring the independence and
    professionalism of the central bank, restoring the independence and
    professionalism of national oil company PDVSA (and ending daily
    deliveries of free oil to Cuba), freeing of private sector activities
    generally to regenerate productive capacity, welcoming new inflows of
    direct foreign investment, and conducting privatizations. That is just
    the beginning. And these activities will all have to be done
    transparently and without a hint of corruption, which would immediately
    hinder Venezuela's return to democracy by causing voters to raise
    questions of fairness. It will be no benefit to replace existing
    corruption with new corruption or to replace one set of oligarchs with
    another; faith in the new government will be fragile and can easily be
    destroyed without attention to these fundamental issues.
        Meanwhile, the new government will require breathing room to get
    itself established. Quick disbursing aid is essential. Bridge aid from
    the international financial institutions will be critical, as will
    bilateral assistance, renegotiation of Paris Club and other debt, and a
    rational, transparent, and orderly process to address bondholder and
    other claims. Oil will continue to be the most significant part of
    Venezuela's economy and will be the primary driver of recovery. But
    production will also take some significant time to recover, and
    previous arrangements unwound, before the oil sector will be
    sufficiently able to fulfill its manifest role. Seizure and return of
    ill-gotten assets must also be a priority, both as a law enforcement
    and also an economic matter, although it is unclear how long such
    activities will take or the ultimate magnitude of successful recovery
    efforts, and therefore how much such efforts will be able to contribute
    to reconstruction.
        Venezuela was, at one point, Latin America's wealthiest nation.
    Someday it may be again. To get there, the current occupants of the
    Miraflores Palace must depart, and the international community will
    have to come alongside the Venezuelan people to offer financing and
    technical assistance, among other things, to help restore and relaunch
    democracy. Meanwhile, the humanitarian tragedy caused by Chavismo shows
    no sign of abating; in fact, it gets worse every day. So long as the
    Maduro regime remains in place, the United States together with our
    regional and extra-regional allies must continue to insist that the
    Maduro regime open its doors to the assistance that has been
    accumulating outside Venezuela's borders, doing what we can to help the
    interim government deliver aid to suffering Venezuelans both in and
    outside the country.
        Current circumstances whereby the Maduro regime would rather kill
    its own people than allow aid into the country to help them are simply
    unacceptable. People are suffering and people are dying, needlessly, at
    the foot of an ideological alter. Continued sanctions are thus an
    appropriate response in an effort to get the Maduro regime to change
    course, to depart voluntarily or to be forced out by the people of
    Venezuela perhaps through the military acting according to the national
    constitution.
        Mr. Chairman, thank you again for the opportunity to testify before
    you today. I look forward to your questions.

        Senator Rubio. Thank you.
        Senator Cardin?
        Senator Cardin. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        I want to thank both of our witnesses. And again, thank you
    for your patience. It is important that we have the views not
    only from our government witnesses but from the private sector.
        Dr. Arnson, I just want to underscore the point that you
    made that has been talked about by several of the members, and
    that is keeping all options on the table and the potential use
    of the U.S. military, which I would strongly disagree with at
    this point.
        But just to underscore the point that you made in your
    statement that it would erode the consensus between the United
    States hemispheric democracies and the countries of Europe over
    how to approach the Venezuelan crisis, and then you pointed out
    that one should not underestimate the drastic consequences for
    regional stability should it occur, I think we all share those
    sentiments, and I was pleased to see the response from the
    government witnesses as to the no planning on the use of
    military.
        Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        Senator Rubio. Senator Cruz?
        Senator Cruz. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        I want to start with the same question that I asked the
    previous panel, which is we are at a potential tipping point in
    Venezuela, and in particular the military and the generals have
    to make a decision with whom to stand. In both of your opinions
    and judgment, what carrots or sticks would have the greatest
    impact in speeding along the exit of Maduro and a transition to
    a democratically elected and legitimate regime?
        Mr. Farnsworth. Thank you, Senator Cruz. I agree with the
    implications of the question that the real arbiter on the
    ground in Venezuela is the military and those with the guns,
    which is the monopoly of the regime at this point. So at some
    point you have to either get them to stand down or switch sides
    and switch their allegiance to Mr. Guaido as the interim
    president.
        These are individual decisions. These are decisions that
    are made based on people's best guess for their own prospects
    and that of their family, and our understanding is that many of
    the people who remain ``loyal to the regime'' are not doing so
    because they particularly like Mr. Maduro, or even like his
    social project or whatever it is, but because they are afraid.
    They are afraid that they will obviously lose their jobs and
    their pensions, but they might actually be killed, and the way
    that the security services are being monitored, not just by the
    Venezuelans but also by some of their outside advisors, there
    is a real sense of who may be looking to create conditions to
    try to overthrow the government or leave or what have you. So
    it is a very delicate situation.
        What can the United States and the international community
    do? I think we can continue, as was discussed in the previous
    panel, to express openness that those who do not have blood on
    their hands, those who have not participated in human rights
    abuses would be welcomed into a new Venezuela. I think that is
    absolutely appropriate.
        But I think at the end of the day, the people have to
    understand that there will be change in Venezuela because they
    want to be on the winning side, they want to be on the side
    that is left standing. If they think that Mr. Maduro will have
    the opportunity to remain forever, then the choice to switch
    their allegiance to Mr. Guaido becomes that much more fraught.
    If they believe that Mr. Guaido, in fact, will be ascending to
    real power in the Miraflores Palace, then the decision in some
    way becomes a little bit easier. I am not saying it is easy,
    but it will be easier.
        So to the extent that the international community can
    continue to show the commitment for real and lasting democracy
    in Venezuela, I believe that is the most potent thing that we
    can do at this time.
        Dr. Arnson. I would like to add to that. It is going to be
    very difficult, I think, to break the high command. The number
    that I have heard is 2,000, Senator Cruz, not 3,000, but it is
    still a substantial number, and whatever it is, it is at least
    double, if not triple, what we have in the United States in an
    armed force that is vastly larger.
        I recall that in the Chilean transition, General Pinochet,
    who subsequently was made to stand trial for his crimes of
    torture and killing of political opponents, remained as the
    head of the armed forces and then became a senator for life.
        There are things that are done at the outset of a
    transition that are deeply distasteful, repugnant. But
    nonetheless, I also recall the words of a great teacher,
    friend, jurist from Chile who headed their Truth Commission,
    Jose Zalaquett, who talked about the ``ethics of
    responsibility,'' which is to say that we are not talking
    necessarily about pure justice right away. Obviously, everyone
    should have to pay for crimes against humanity, for torture,
    for killing, for the levels of corruption and drug trafficking
    that they have engaged in. But what you can accomplish
    initially as you have a transitional government leading to
    elections is very different from what can occur down the line,
    and I think the United States has an important role to play in
    this.
        Again, as distasteful and contrary to the whole concept of
    the rule of law that this may seem, if people feel that if they
    change or if they somehow agree to break with the regime, what
    awaits them is a super-max jail cell in the United States, you
    will never see the movement of those people. We have to think
    in very pragmatic terms, not in absolutist terms, be flexible,
    but also listen to what the Venezuelan opposition is doing in
    terms of speaking to the military, making that outreach,
    because it is clear that the offer of amnesty has not yet been
    sufficient.
        Senator Cruz. One additional question, Mr. Farnsworth. You
    made reference to the Cuban soldiers and thugs that are on the
    ground in Venezuela. Can you detail a bit more the malign
    influence that Cuba is having propping up the Maduro regime?
        Mr. Farnsworth. From what I know from outside open sources,
    they have been very active particularly in the security
    services, offering not just guidance in terms of how to
    organize intelligence operations but also helping the
    Venezuelans carry them out in some cases. They have also been
    active in state functions such as passport agencies and
    authorities so that they know who is coming in and out of the
    country, and these are reports from open sources, et cetera.
        You do not need a whole lot of people from outside the
    country to do a lot of damage if they are embedded in the most
    sensitive areas of the government and the areas that have
    control of the population, and this is what the Cubans have
    primarily focused on, is my understanding.
        So with that in mind, it has become a very complicated
    effort, and to try to get some of these folks, Venezuelans, who
    may want to do the right thing, they do not know who is
    watching them, they do not know what information they have on
    them, they do not know who is watching their families. It is a
    really complicated and difficult scenario.
        Senator Cruz. Thank you.
        Senator Rubio. Senator Menendez?
        Senator Menendez. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        First of all, I want to thank our witnesses for their
    longstanding sharing of their knowledge with the committee over
    many different issues, over many different times.
        I really just want to make a statement. I understand the
    concern of many, including some of my colleagues, about
    military intervention in Venezuela. But I am concerned that in
    the process of that constant refrain, that we lose sight of who
    the Venezuelan people have to have real fear of.
        The Venezuelan people have the threat of military force by
    only one entity. That is Nicolas Maduro and the generals who
    have to decide whether or not they are going to support
    democracy and human rights or whether they are going to support
    a dictatorship and turn their guns on their brothers and
    sisters.
        That is why our message is very clear: if your hands are
    free of blood and human rights violations, you have a future.
    President Guaido has said that you have a future, and you have
    a future free of sanctions that the United States will follow
    you anywhere in the world unless you do not have blood on your
    hands.
        There is only one entity in which the Venezuelan people
    face violence, and that is from the colectivos and the armed
    thugs that Nicolas Maduro has unleashed upon its people, not
    from any other entity in the hemisphere.
        There is only one person who causes the suffering of the
    Venezuelan people. It is not sanctions by the United States or
    anyone else. It is by the failed policies of Nicolas Maduro,
    who takes one of the wealthiest countries in the Western
    Hemisphere and has his people eating out of garbage.
        It is only one entity that has stolen the national
    patrimony of Venezuela, and that is Nicolas Maduro.
        And it is only one set of interventions that has taken
    place inside of Venezuela. It has taken place by Cuba, that has
    its security apparatus propping up Maduro. If you go into
    Caracas, you ultimately get searched by Cuban agents. Cuban
    agents are in the midst of creating silos among the generals in
    Venezuela so that they cannot talk to each other because they
    are fearful that if they do, that their head will roll, and
    they therefore cannot talk about joining together to maybe
    support a democratic government. That is intervention.
        There is only one intervention by a foreign country. That
    is Russia, as it continues to prop up the Maduro regime in a
    whole host of ways, not the United States of America.
        And finally, I really tire somewhat of the suggestion about
    our sanctions. I have done foreign policy for 27 years between
    the House and the Senate. I only know of a handful of peaceful
    diplomacy tools to get countries to move in a certain
    direction. International criticism, condemnation and opprobrium
    may move a democracy, but I have not seen it move many
    dictators. I wish that it would, but it has not.
        So what are we left with? Unlike Russia, that uses military
    adventurism to pursue its foreign policy goals, we only have a
    handful of peaceful diplomacy tools, the use of our aid to
    induce countries to act a certain way, the use of our trade and
    access to our markets to induce countries to act a certain way,
    the leverage of our entities like USAID to help countries, and
    then there is the denial of aid or trade or access to our
    financial institutions, which we generally call sanctions.
        Now, I would be happy to get a lesson about what other
    phalanx of peaceful diplomacy tools we have. So unless we are
    willing to accept a dictatorship that oppresses its people,
    that does so by force, and that has them eating out of garbage
    cans and denies them the critical medicines necessary to stay
    alive, I am not going to be repentant about our advocacy for
    sanctions as a peaceful tool to try to move a country in a
    better direction, and that includes Venezuela.
        So I hope we just do not lose our eyes on who is
    responsible for the suffering of the Venezuelan people. His
    name is clear. It is etched in stone. It is etched in history.
    And hopefully he will face the opprobrium of history at the end
    of the day, and that is Nicolas Maduro.
        Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        Senator Rubio. Thank you.
        I am reclaiming my time, and then I will recognize Senator
    Kaine, and then, unless anybody else comes, we will wrap up.
        The 3.4 million people who left Venezuela were from 2014 to
    2018. The U.N. projection that 2 million more were going to
    leave was established late last year as well.
        The figure that 90 percent of the people of Venezuela live
    in poverty and have lost on average 24 pounds was a 2018
    number.
        The chronic and infectious diseases running rampant,
    hospitals lacking in supplies, has been ongoing for a number of
    years.
        The reduction in refining capacity, down to about only 25
    percent due to poor management, poor maintenance, is
    preexisting back to 2018 and before.
        The repeated denial of recognizing humanitarian
    catastrophe, much less allowing humanitarian aid to enter the
    country, did not begin on February 24th. This has been a
    longstanding policy of the Maduro regime.
        And I say all this because the idea that sanctions are
    going to exacerbate the humanitarian condition of the
    Venezuelan people assumes that any of the revenue they were
    generating previous to the sanctions--because up until the 24th
    of January, all the sanctions were on individuals. They were on
    people, not on any sectors. So the argument that sanctions
    could make things worse assumes that the Venezuelan people were
    enjoying any of the benefits of the revenue that was being
    generated previous to that, which all the evidence was clear
    that they were not.
        On the contrary, I know of no other nation--maybe there is
    one; I do not know--in which their defense minister also
    happens to be the chairman of the board of oil and gas. I know
    of no other place where public servants who have served in
    government their entire lives are able to send their children
    abroad on shopping sprees in the tens of thousands of dollars.
    I know of no other nation in which--I guess I do not know the
    right terminology, but where the second in command has never
    been to the U.N. building, lives in New York and no one has
    seen her. That is Chavez' daughter, who is living in the evil
    United States, enjoying life in New York.
        So I think it is important to touch upon that point because
    in the days to come, as Venezuela faces severe shortages of
    fuel, you have to ask yourself how could you possibly face a
    severe shortage of fuel? You sit on the world's richest supply
    of oil. The answer is because your refining capacity does not
    exist, because instead of buying replacement parts and paying
    workers, you gave the state oil company over to your buddies so
    they can run it into the ground. It is like a tenant who is
    being evicted and they steal the copper wire out of the wall. I
    mean, they have stolen everything they can get their hands on,
    and that is why you have an extraordinary amount of wealth.
        In fact, it is funny to hear from all these regime
    insiders, because they all reach out. Every single one of them
    sends out messages: Would I be an acceptable alternative? Can
    you give me visas for my family in exchange for us breaking? It
    is funny to hear them say, by the way, I am just corrupt; I am
    not a narco trafficker. I am just old-fashioned corrupt with
    hundreds of millions of dollars.
        What other country in the world has generals who make
    hundreds of millions of dollars? That is a heck of a pension
    plan. I have never seen anything like that anywhere in the
    world. They are getting their money from somewhere, and every
    penny that goes into their hands is not going to the Venezuelan
    people.
        So the bottom line is that this did not start yesterday,
    nor did it start on the 24th of January, when sanctions were
    imposed on the oil industry. The fact of the matter is that
    virtually every penny generated from the sale of oil for cash
    that was sold primarily to the United States, of which it is a
    very small percentage of our capacity but a significant
    percentage of what they sell for cash around the world, went to
    their pockets, went into their hands. And all of the narco-
    trafficking fees that they charge go into their hands. None of
    that finds its way to the people of Venezuela.
        So I only say that because that is the argument they are
    trying to set up, and they are going to try to use the U.N. and
    the visit over there next week to sort of highlight that, but
    it is a fraud, it is a farce, and the people of Venezuela know
    it. They do.
        It is funny, this issue has been in the paper now for six
    weeks. There are a lot of Venezuela experts now. But I have
    been dealing with this for five years. So has Senator Menendez
    and a lot of people on this committee. None of this stuff is
    new. It has just gotten worse because they are running out of
    things to steal.
        So the second point that it brings me to is the loyalty.
    Yes, there are 2,000 generals. I would say that there are about
    six to eight of them that actually matter, and one in
    particular, Padrino Lopez, that actually matters, the guy who
    also chairs oil and gas. He has a day job and a night job, and
    his family meanwhile lives in Spain.
        So the question really becomes their loyalty is not
    ideological; it is financial. Every single one of them is not
    loyal to Nicolas Maduro, not loyal to Chavismo. They are loyal
    to dollars, dollars--not euros, not bolivars, not Cuban pesos--
    dollars. That is what they are loyal to.
        And hence, the less of that they have, the less reason they
    have to be loyal, theoretically anyway. And that is one of the
    things that we--this is no longer ideological. I am not saying
    Maduro is not ideological. He probably is a true-blue believer
    in the Cuban model, and he thinks that he needs to go through
    this ugly period of time to get to that point. But the rest of
    these guys, they like money, and they have shown that not just
    in the way they live but in the way their families live.
        And that is critical to all of this, because in my view--
    and this is really my question to both of you. The formula that
    brings us to this point is a combination of three things. One
    is widespread unrest, which is already ongoing and is tied to
    the legitimacy of the government, the interim government. But
    widespread unrest--and we see that every time that Interim
    President Guaido, despite Internet blocks, every time he speaks
    on TV, the Internet goes dark as those Chinese workers over
    there are helping him block the Internet at key moments, and
    yet he is still able to get hundreds of thousands of people
    into the street. Widespread unrest.
        Number two, the loss of military and elite support.
        And number three, continued international pressure.
        And the combination of those three things ultimately leave
    Maduro with dwindling and very stark options, and I believe a
    safe haven for him, which is probably in Turkey or somewhere
    like that.
        Is that not ultimately what needs to happen here? The
    combination of widespread unrest, loss of military and elite
    support, and continued international pressure that ultimately
    presents him with stark choices and either causes him to move
    out of the way in a negotiated exit, or causes those who
    continue to prop him up to force that negotiated exit and a new
    beginning?
        Dr. Arnson. I will start with that, Senator Rubio. I think
    what has struck me throughout this hearing is I do not think
    there is really much disagreement at all about what reality is
    in Venezuela and who is responsible.
        On the question of sanctions not being the source of the
    humanitarian crisis, I could not agree more. The politicization
    of humanitarian aid was started by the Maduro regime by its
    refusal to admit that there was a humanitarian crisis in the
    country and by not allowing international support in. The
    hunger, the loss of weight, the lack of food and medicine, all
    of these have been longstanding and predate in many ways the
    sanctions.
        My concern about the additional effect of the sanctions is
    based on talking actually to humanitarian workers inside
    Venezuela who are concerned not that people, rather than eating
    three meals a day, go down to two meals a day and lose 20
    pounds, but there is actually widespread starvation, the kinds
    of things that are shown in this photo. This is why I think
    that it would be very important to channel some portion of U.S.
    assistance--not just have it parked on the border waiting to go
    into Venezuela--but actually channel it through the various
    organizations that have been able to maintain their neutrality
    and are on the ground and are looking for a non-political way
    to get that money in and get it out to needy people regardless
    of political affiliation.
        The three things that you mentioned, the three factors--the
    unrest, the loss of military and elite support, and
    international pressure--I could not agree more that these are
    the ingredients for what will bring about change in Venezuela.
    The question is how do you increase the relevance of the second
    factor that you mentioned, the loss of military and elite
    support. That is, I think, the key issue that all of us that
    are concerned with the democratic transition in Venezuela
    should be focused on. How do we bring that about? What
    combination of carrots, sticks, off ramps, visas do we
    contemplate in order to get sufficient buy-in that there is a
    regime transition?
        And then finally, I would just say that the widespread
    unrest that exists now that President Guaido is able to
    mobilize may not necessarily last, and I think there is a
    concern broadly that time may not be on his side. The regime
    certainly feels that time is on its side.
        I think it is important to remember that people who are
    starving do not mobilize in the streets. If you look at some of
    the old classics, Why Men Rebel, it is not absolute poverty. It
    is that rise in expectations, and I think that is why we are
    seeing, after the 2014 protests, this enormous outpouring of
    renewed street demonstrations. That is not sustainable over the
    long term as the sanctions take their bite.
        Senator Rubio. My only comment on that is that people who
    are starving do mobilize. They leave, and that is what they
    will do. But the borders are closed.
        Dr. Arnson. Correct, correct. Exactly.
        Senator Rubio. I am sorry, Mr. Farnsworth.
        Mr. Farnsworth. No, not at all, and thank you for the
    opportunity. I want to say how much I appreciated both your
    statement and Mr. Menendez' statement. I think you have
    encapsulated these issues very, very effectively and very well,
    very powerfully.
        Just to add a couple of quick things, if I may. I do agree
    with the framework that you just laid out in terms of the three
    key aspects, and I also agree that the loss of military and
    elite support remains the key in some ways, and indeed the most
    difficult.
        You know, the point that you raised, Mr. Rubio, about how
    you have some of the leadership, indeed all of the leadership
    of the military and security forces fully invested in the
    continuation of the regime I think is accurate. And why?
    Because the regime has very effectively bought them in through
    access to unimaginable levels of corruption, whether it is
    through PDVSA or different exchange rates or controlling the
    import of certain items like food. I mean, you have generals
    literally in control of the import of beans, and generals in
    control of the import of chickens. It is weird, right? That is
    not what militaries are supposed to do, but it buys them into
    the continuation of the process.
        And then you have the entire system of drug trafficking
    that has not just been sort of allowed but encouraged as
    another way to buy some of these officials into the
    continuation of the regime and to buy off their loyalty.
        So how do you begin to get at that? Because they are not
    the ones who are going to shift. They are not the ones that are
    going to go to Colombia and declare their allegiance to Mr.
    Guaido. The first panel alluded to it a little bit, but we
    really need to go hard after the assets that these folks
    maintain outside of Venezuela--well, inside too, but outside
    Venezuela. Identify the assets, seize them, and cause them to
    forfeit them.
        These are ill-gotten gains. They are stolen either from the
    Venezuelan people or through illegal activities. They have no
    call on them. So the international community, working together,
    I think that is a very powerful aspect.
        And then the second one is one that the Administration has
    begun to explore more actively, and that is the whole visa
    issue. By taking visas away from individuals, I think that is
    powerful. It is equally powerful to either deny visas or remove
    existing visas from family members who may be in Spain or
    France or Italy or wherever. So if you can work together with
    other governments in Europe particularly, but also Latin
    America, this becomes a powerful incentive because now the ring
    begins to close on the individuals who are causing the most
    damage in Venezuela.
        Now again, I do not believe that is necessarily going to
    cause them to change their allegiance to Mr. Guaido, but it
    does provide a powerful signal to those underneath who are the
    most likely perhaps to change, that if they continue on the
    current path, their future is not going to be a happy one, and
    if they switch, their future is going to be much better.
        So it gets to the carrots and sticks issue that has come up
    several times in the hearing.
        Senator Rubio. Senator Kaine?
        Senator Kaine. I want to ask about Colombia. I think one of
    the best examples of the U.S. using a comprehensive approach to
    deal with a foreign policy objective has been the work in
    Colombia, sustained over Democratic and Republican
    administrations, and I would like to ask your perspective on
    how the current status in Venezuela affects Colombia, affects
    the peace process, affects the path toward restoring
    governmental services in parts of the country that had been
    abandoned for decades. Talk about what is at risk there and
    what we ought to do to protect the advances that we have helped
    achieve.
        Dr. Arnson. I will start. I think a great deal is at risk.
    I think that Colombia is simply unprepared to absorb the 1.1
    million that are already in, let alone the million- plus that
    are going to be arriving in 2019 as the Venezuelan economy
    continues on its death spiral.
        Colombia has, as you know, this fiscal rule that requires
    that there be a progressive decrease in the deficit. At the
    same time, it faces spending needs to implement aspects of the
    peace agreement that talk about connecting the rural to the
    urban and bringing state presence not only in a physical or
    security sense to these previous conflict zones but also
    opportunities, services, infrastructure. It cannot all be done.
    It simply cannot all be done.
        I think that there is a great risk that without the
    resources, without the backing of the international community,
    Colombia will make very hard choices.
        I also believe that the refugee flows throughout Latin
    America are going to have an indelible impact on the politics
    of the region for the foreseeable future. Just as politics in
    Europe have been deeply impacted by the influx of refugees from
    Syria and Libya and Afghanistan and Iraq and other conflict
    zones, and not in a good way I would say, I do fear that there
    will be similar impacts on the ability of countries to sustain
    liberal pluralist democracies.
        I think that right now we are focused on the humanitarian
    emergency and how we are going to feed these people and give
    them access to medical care and allow their kids to go to
    school. We need to put out sort of an early warning about the
    impact on the political systems not just in Colombia but also
    in Peru and Ecuador and everywhere else.
        Mr. Farnsworth. I fully agree. You know, Colombia has some
    difficult fiscal circumstances, and something has to give. I
    mean, you have a peace process that requires billions of
    dollars of investment, not just to implement the accords
    directly but also to develop the areas of Colombia to allow
    this peace to be sustainable. They have also had a soft economy
    which has to be revitalized, and President Duque is working on
    that, clearly. You have drug production now that has spiked.
    That requires new resources as well. And now you have a
    humanitarian crisis worse than any we have seen in the Western
    Hemisphere in the modern era. There is simply not resources for
    that.
        So I think the international community can come alongside
    the Colombians to try to mitigate the worst impact of that.
        But there is another point that I think also needs to be
    raised, and that is that Venezuela, under first Hugo Chavez and
    now Nicolas Maduro, has provided safe haven for FARC and ELN
    combatants. They are in some ways leading directly to some of
    the destruction of Venezuela. Now, it is not a political thing.
    It is not a guerilla force. They are not working to take over
    the government. But they are working directly in the illegal
    gold mining sector. They are working in crime and criminal
    activities. And they are working in drug trafficking. This is
    maybe left over from the Colombian experience, but it is still
    related.
        So to the extent that the Venezuela problem continues to
    deteriorate and Venezuela turns toward becoming a failed state,
    and I do not know what the proper definition of failed state
    is, but to the extent that it is turning toward one, that gives
    greater permissiveness for recalcitrant elements of the FARC,
    the ELN and others to conduct their affairs in a lawless way,
    and I think that is ultimately not just self-defeating but it
    creates real complications in terms of reestablishing rule of
    law and revitalizing the democracy in Venezuela, if it comes to
    that.
        So I really appreciate the fact that you linked the two
    countries together. They are together historically,
    politically, and this is just yet another example.
        Senator Kaine. Very good testimony, very good hearing.
    Thanks, Mr. Chair. I appreciate the witnesses.
        Senator Rubio. Thank you.
        Just three quick points I want to make as we wrap up. The
    first is these nation states that want to be helpful, many of
    whom have expressed concern about some angle of our policy or
    statements, I think it is incumbent on them to step up to the
    plate. If they do not want certain things, then do the things
    that you are willing to do, the visa revocations, the
    additional sanctions.
        I think we appreciate the recognition of President Guaido,
    but there is more that can be done, and there are a handful of
    countries that happen to be the favorite destination of some of
    these thieves and their families, and we would hope they would
    step up and do more.
        The second is, and it was touching on what you just
    mentioned, Mr. Farnsworth, I do not believe that the Maduro
    regime should be viewed as a government. It does not operate as
    a government. It is better understood as an organized crime
    syndicate. It operates like an organized crime syndicate. There
    is very little in the way of government on a daily basis. It is
    largely a group of people bound together by the ability to
    steal and make money.
        But the way you collapse an organized crime syndicate is
    you recognize they are a bunch of thieves and criminals and
    they have no honor, and they end up turning on each other in
    their best interest, because that is really what it has become.
    I mean, that is, by and large, what binds that organization
    together. It is an organized crime ring which, by the way,
    sponsors terrorism. As you have outlined, the ELN openly
    operates in their territory and as recently as a month ago
    killed 20 police cadets in Colombia in a bombing.
        And last but not least on aid and working with the
    organizations, that would be a great idea. The problem is that
    the current aid now is basically an open secret. These aid
    groups that are operating in Venezuela need to do so, but they
    need to do so quietly and with very little publicity, and if
    there is any uptick in the amount of aid that they are
    distributing, it gets noticed and scrutinized because it runs
    counter to two things, the Maduro regime's narrative that there
    is no humanitarian crisis--they just talk about how great
    carnival was and how all these people were at the beach.
        So they are arguing there is no humanitarian crisis. That
    is number one. And number two is the more aid there is, the
    less people depend on Maduro for food, the less he can control
    them. So the problem is that these entities do not want to
    receive an uptick in humanitarian aid to distribute because it
    would imperil the little that they are able to do now.
        As an example, you are a charity, you are feeding people in
    Venezuela today. If there is a significant increase in the
    amount of aid you are distributing, it might cancel your entire
    program because the Maduro regime does not want you to do that.
    Ideally, you would be able to work through those groups. But
    those groups do not want it because it endangers their small-
    scale existing programs now, and that is a real challenge that
    we have been facing here.
        I know we have been here for two-and-a-half hours----
        Dr. Arnson. Can I comment on that briefly?
        Senator Rubio. Yes.
        Dr. Arnson. I think that that is, to a certain extent, true
    of the past in many ways. We should treat it as a hypothesis to
    be tested. The ICRC has announced a doubling of its budget for
    Venezuela. The U.N. is quietly, as you say, expanding its
    footprint on the ground, and they have to operate very, very
    carefully so as not to call attention to themselves, but I
    think there is definitely an effort, particularly in light of
    sanctions that everyone knows will expand the suffering.
        I would slightly disagree that none of the oil revenue ever
    came in. Venezuela imports--I do not know if it is 100 percent
    of its food, but pretty close, in the 90 percent. The same with
    medicine. Whatever there is in the country depends on foreign
    reserves. The CLAP boxes are a form of political control. I
    completely agree. They do provide a subsistence level. If you
    take that way, again, I think conditions get worse.
        So I do not really know what the answer is, but I think
    there are a few more subtleties to the situation that we should
    very much keep in mind.
        Senator Rubio. Just on that, it is true that they import
    their food, but the role of remittances is--there are entire
    industries of people that are sending family members food.
    There is the stuff sold on the black market for those who have
    access to that cash. There are the people, about 40 percent,
    who depend on the CLAP; and then, frankly, the people who have
    left because it is not enough for them.
        In any event, we have had a long hearing. I appreciate both
    your patience and your testimony today, along with our previous
    witnesses.
        I want to thank everyone for being here today.
        We had a huge turnout. In my seven years, it is the best
    attended Western Hemisphere subcommittee hearing.
        [Laughter.]
        Senator Rubio. And I want to thank the Capitol Police
    because they have been very helpful in channeling people in and
    out, as I know we have had a lot of demand to be in here.
    Again, I am just grateful to them for the work they have done.
        The record for this hearing will remain open for 48 hours.
        Senator Rubio. And with that, the hearing is adjourned.
        [Applause.]
        [Whereupon, at 12:31 p.m., the hearing was adjourned.]

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                  Additional Material Submitted for the Record

                                 PAHO Submittal

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