[Senate Hearing 115-885]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]
S. Hrg. 115-885
EXAMINING THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION: ADMINISTRATION
PERSPECTIVES
=======================================================================
HEARING
BEFORE THE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON SPACE, SCIENCE,
AND COMPETITIVENESS
OF THE
COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE,
SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION
UNITED STATES SENATE
ONE HUNDRED FIFTEENTH CONGRESS
SECOND SESSION
__________
MAY 16, 2018
__________
Printed for the use of the Committee on Commerce, Science, and
Transportation
[GRAPHIC NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]
Available online: http://www.govinfo.gov
__________
U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE
57-906 PDF WASHINGTON : 2025
SENATE COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION
ONE HUNDRED FIFTEENTH CONGRESS
SECOND SESSION
JOHN THUNE, South Dakota, Chairman
ROGER F. WICKER, Mississippi BILL NELSON, Florida, Ranking
ROY BLUNT, Missouri MARIA CANTWELL, Washington
TED CRUZ, Texas AMY KLOBUCHAR, Minnesota
DEB FISCHER, Nebraska RICHARD BLUMENTHAL, Connecticut
JERRY MORAN, Kansas BRIAN SCHATZ, Hawaii
DAN SULLIVAN, Alaska EDWARD MARKEY, Massachusetts
DEAN HELLER, Nevada TOM UDALL, New Mexico
JAMES INHOFE, Oklahoma GARY PETERS, Michigan
MIKE LEE, Utah TAMMY BALDWIN, Wisconsin
RON JOHNSON, Wisconsin TAMMY DUCKWORTH, Illinois
SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO, West Virginia MAGGIE HASSAN, New Hampshire
CORY GARDNER, Colorado CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO, Nevada
TODD YOUNG, Indiana JON TESTER, Montana
Nick Rossi, Staff Director
Adrian Arnakis, Deputy Staff Director
Jason Van Beek, General Counsel
Kim Lipsky, Democratic Staff Director
Chris Day, Democratic Deputy Staff Director
Renae Black, Senior Counsel
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SUBCOMMITTEE ON SPACE, SCIENCE, AND COMPETITIVENESS
TED CRUZ, Texas, Chairman EDWARD MARKEY, Massachusetts,
JERRY MORAN, Kansas Ranking
DAN SULLIVAN, Alaska BRIAN SCHATZ, Hawaii
MIKE LEE, Utah TOM UDALL, New Mexico
RON JOHNSON, Wisconsin GARY PETERS, Michigan
SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO, West Virginia TAMMY BALDWIN, Wisconsin
CORY GARDNER, Colorado MAGGIE HASSAN, New Hampshire
C O N T E N T S
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Page
Hearing held on May 16, 2018..................................... 1
Statement of Senator Cruz........................................ 1
Statement of Senator Nelson...................................... 2
Witnesses
William H. Gerstenmaier, Associate Administrator, Human
Exploration and Operations, National Aeronautics and Space
Administration................................................. 4
Prepared statement........................................... 5
Hon. Paul K. Martin, Inspector General, National Aeronautics and
Space Administration........................................... 10
Prepared statement........................................... 12
Appendix
Response to written questions submitted to William H.
Gerstenmaier by:
Hon. Bill Nelson............................................. 31
Hon. Edward Markey........................................... 35
Hon. Gary Peters............................................. 36
Response to written questions submitted to Hon. Paul K. Martin
by:
Hon. Gary Peters............................................. 38
EXAMINING THE FUTURE OF THE
INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION:
ADMINISTRATION PERSPECTIVES
----------
WEDNESDAY, MAY 16, 2018
U.S. Senate,
Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness,
Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation,
Washington, DC.
The Subcommittee met, pursuant to notice, at 2:36 p.m. in
room SR-253, Russell Senate Office Building, Hon. Ted Cruz,
Chairman of the Subcommittee, presiding.
Present: Senators Cruz presiding], Nelson, and Gardner.
OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. TED CRUZ,
U.S. SENATOR FROM TEXAS
Senator Cruz. This hearing is called to order. Good
afternoon. We'll ask for the senator from Colorado to stop
being unruly.
[Laughter.]
Senator Cruz. Welcome to our witnesses. Welcome, everyone.
The International Space Station is the largest and most
complex habitable space-based research facility ever
constructed by humanity. It's a marvel of engineering, and it's
critically important to our national space program. For over 17
years, the ISS has provided the United States with continuous
access to low Earth orbit which has been paramount to the
success of NASA, our commercial partners, scientific research,
and to human space exploration.
It's due to the significance of the ISS as a key component
of our national space program that this Subcommittee led the
effort that extended the operation of ISS to 2024 by enacting
the bipartisan U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act
in 2015, which Senator Nelson and I worked on hand in hand and
which was signed into law by President Obama.
We then followed up on that effort by once again working in
a bipartisan manner, me working closely once again with Senator
Nelson, in enacting the NASA Transition Authorization Act of
2017 which was signed into law by President Trump and
established the ISS Transition Principles. The purpose of the
ISS Transition Principles was to create a step-wise approach to
eventually transition from the ISS once there is the emergence
of a proven and reliable commercial alternative.
Congress decided to take a step-wise approach due to the
long history at NASA in which major programs like Constellation
and the Space Shuttle had been eliminated prematurely. These
decisions have long-term repercussions at NASA, its work force,
the local communities surrounding NASA Centers, and American
taxpayers who face increased replacement costs for lost
capabilities. Not only was it concerning when NASA failed to
deliver the ISS Transition Report to Congress before December
1, 2017, as required by Federal law, but it was deeply
troubling when reports leaked that some were pushing a proposal
to end all Federal funding of ISS in 2025.
Congress was explicitly clear in making its long-term
interest in ISS known in the NASA Transition Authorization Act
of 2017. Federal statute required the transition plan to
include cost estimates for extending operations of the ISS to
2024, to 2028, and to 2030. It also required an evaluation of
the feasible and preferred service life of the ISS through at
least 2028 as a unique scientific, commercial, and space
exploration related facility. Nowhere in Federal statue is
there a request from Congress seeking a hard deadline to end
Federal support for ISS, to cross our fingers and hope for the
best. We've seen that act play out too many times in our
national space program and it's time we learn the lessons of
history.
Prematurely canceling a program for political reasons costs
jobs and wastes billions of dollars. We cannot afford to
continue to pursue policies that have the consequence of
creating gaps in capability, that send $3.5 billion in taxpayer
money to the Russian government, or to create a leadership
vacuum in low Earth orbit that provides a window of opportunity
for the Chinese to capitalize upon.
Let me be clear. As long as I am Chairman of this
Subcommittee, the ISS will continue to have strong support and
strong bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress. And as long as
Article I of the Constitution remains intact, it will be
Congress that is the final arbiter of how long the ISS receives
Federal funding.
I'd now like to recognize the Ranking Member of the Full
Committee, Senator Nelson.
STATEMENT OF HON. BILL NELSON,
U.S. SENATOR FROM FLORIDA
Senator Nelson. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Indeed, what we have is $100 billion or more invested in
low Earth orbit. Ever since we started assembling the Space
Station years ago, this incredible flying machine, the Space
Shuttle, which was designed to carry components that would go
up to low Earth orbit, be assembled, and we now have a
structure on low Earth orbit that is as large as a football
field from goalpost to goalpost, or 120 yards. That's how big
it is. People don't realize how big it is.
People don't realize the research that is going on, not
only with somebody like Mark Kelly's twin brother, Scott, that
went up and lived for a year so we could study the long-term
effects of weightlessness on the human body--because when we go
to Mars, hopefully, we're not going to have to go with
conventional technology that would take us 8 months. Because
then you've got to land, stay on Mars until the planets
realign, which could be as much as a year, and then come back.
We're not ready for that. Hopefully, we're going to sprint with
faster propulsion. But even so, it's going to be long periods
in weightlessness unless we create some kind of centrifugal
force, like a revolving spacecraft that would give some effect
of gravity.
But, nevertheless, we need to figure out all of this, and
we've got this platform up there that cost north of $100
billion. Abandoning this incredible orbiting laboratory when we
are on the cusp of a new era of space exploration, would be
irresponsible at best and probably disastrous.
It's pretty clear that the proposal to end the funding of
ISS by 2025--that wasn't a NASA decision. That was an OMB
decision, which, traditionally, has been the bane of NASA's
existence because they've wanted to run the space program. So
it was a political decision.
As far as this Committee is concerned--and I can tell you
as far as this senator is concerned--that proposal is dead on
arrival because, as Ted says, this is a bipartisan outfit and
we're looking at this in a bipartisan fashion, and, indeed,
this is where you bring together all the players, industry,
academia, everybody except the White House's Office of
Management and Budget. OMB is the one that then focuses on a
random date and it's the wrong way to approach a transition
from the ISS.
Now, one day, low Earth orbit is going to be filled with
commercial space stations and other platforms used by NASA. In
lunar orbit, there are going to be commercial platforms and
there's also going to be a NASA platform. That NASA platform
will be a means by which, ultimately, we go in what has been
set by the President as a goal to go to Mars in the decade of
the 2030s with humans. So it's going to be a combination of
government and non-government commercial activities.
But it's not fair to NASA or to industry to force a
transition based on an arbitrary date. That decision should be
based on factors like NASA's research requirements and the
readiness of the industry to take the lead. We need to listen
to our scientists and the experts at NASA. They have made it
clear that NASA will continue to need access to low Earth orbit
for astronaut training, technology development, and research.
So today, we have skilled people at Kennedy, at Johnson,
indeed, across so many centers working on the ISS and on
commercial crew and cargo, and these are some of the only
people in the world who know how to keep people alive in space.
If this plan to prematurely end the current ISS program moves
forward, I fear that NASA's expertise in these critical areas,
expertise that we're going to have to have if we're going to
Mars with humans and safely return, will be lost.
The good news is that NASA's ISS transition report
indicates that the Space Station has plenty of operational time
left, at least through the end of 2028 and probably beyond. We
have time to continue the critical research taking place on the
Station, to keep training astronauts to live and work in space
as they prepare for those long duration missions, and to
develop a robust commercial market in low Earth orbit.
NASA should be focused like a laser on getting commercial
crew up and running right now so that American astronauts can
once again be launching to the Station from the Cape. NASA
ought to be laser focused as it's getting ready within 2 years
to launch the largest, most powerful rocket ever, the SLS. NASA
shouldn't be off on these rabbit trails having to defend a
Space Station that ought to be there.
Once Boeing and SpaceX are regularly transporting crew to
the Station, it's going to enter into a golden era and we'll
see just how valuable the research platform is. It makes good
business sense to take full advantage of our investment on the
ISS, just as it is common sense to maintain our Nation's
leadership in space. Remember, I said just a minute ago, the
largest rocket ever, a third more powerful than the Saturn V
that took us to the moon, is right around the corner from its
first test flight. We want to keep NASA focused on that.
The ISS is an unprecedented accomplishment that continues
to serve humanity and maintain U.S. global leadership in space.
So I look forward for this Committee continuing to exercise its
jurisdiction over this issue.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Senator Cruz. Thank you, Senator Nelson.
I would note there are issues on which Senator Nelson and I
disagree, but on this issue, the importance of the ISS and a
resolved commitment to not wasting the billions of dollars we
have invested in that asset, Senator Nelson and I are on
exactly the same page.
Now, I welcome each of the witnesses to present your
testimony.
Senator Nelson. Why couldn't we agree on a lot of other
pages?
[Laughter.]
Senator Cruz. We've got hours left in the afternoon.
Our first witness is Mr. Bill Gerstenmaier, who serves as
the Associate Administrator for Human Exploration and
Operations at NASA. Our second witness is Mr. Paul Martin, who
serves as the Inspector General at NASA.
Now I'll recognize Mr. Gerstenmaier to present your
testimony.
STATEMENT OF WILLIAM H. GERSTENMAIER, ASSOCIATE
ADMINISTRATOR, HUMAN EXPLORATION AND OPERATIONS,
NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION
Mr. Gerstenmaier. Thank you very much for allowing me to
present in this important hearing on Examining the Future of
ISS: Administration Perspectives.
The ISS has accomplished amazing things and transformed the
way that we see human space flight. Crews have lived
continuously on ISS for almost 18 years. The ISS has enabled
groundbreaking research that benefits us all. The Space Station
has helped NASA prepare for deep space missions. The Space
Station has allowed us to maintain a leadership role in
international space flight.
The Space Station International Partnership has developed
voluntary standards, such as the international docking
standard, that could transform space flight for decades to
come. These standards will allow anyone to be part of space
flight by designing to these standards. The cooperation of the
ISS partners is amazing and serves as an example of a diverse
community working together for common goals.
Last, the ISS has enabled innovative U.S. companies to
reinvent the launch industry. Further, crew--private sector
developed crew transportation systems with the aid of NASA are
about ready to go fly.
With all these amazing accomplishments from the ISS, it is
only fitting that we take time to seriously plan for the
transition of ISS in low Earth orbit. NASA is preparing to
secure the Nation's long-term presence in LEO by partnering
with industry to develop commercial orbital platforms and
capabilities that the private sector and NASA can utilize after
cessation of direct U.S. Federal funding for the ISS by 2025.
To be clear, NASA is not abandoning low Earth orbit. We
must ensure the right pieces are in place to maintain an
operational human presence in low Earth orbit, whether through
a modified ISS program, commercial platforms, or some
combination of both.
We are asking industry, academia, and others through a
series of funded studies to provide ideas for utilizing the
unique properties of space and creating commercial
opportunities.
We will work with the Space Council and the Department of
Commerce to help with the transformation of low Earth orbit. We
have also proposed funds in the 2019 budget that help support
this transition.
NASA looks forward to working with Congress, stakeholders,
other government agencies, researchers, private industry, and
our international partners on the future of ISS and low Earth
orbit to ensure that the U.S. maintains our human space flight
leadership.
Thank you.
[The prepared statement of Mr. Gerstenmaier follows:]
Prepared Statement of William H. Gerstenmaier, Associate Administrator,
Human Exploration and Operations, National Aeronautics and Space
Administration
Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee, thank you for the
opportunity to appear before you today to discuss the future of the
International Space Station (ISS) and NASA's long-term vision for use
of low-Earth orbit (LEO).
NASA is preparing to secure the Nation's long-term presence in LEO
by partnering with industry to develop commercial orbital platforms,
and capabilities that the private sector and NASA can utilize after the
cessation of direct U.S. Federal funding for ISS by 2025.
To be clear, NASA is not abandoning LEO. We must ensure the right
pieces are in place to maintain an operational human presence in LEO,
whether through a modified ISS program, commercial platforms, or some
combination of both.
In October of last year, the members of the National Space Council
endorsed a recommendation to the President that NASA should return to
the Moon. Following that recommendation, on December 11, 2017, the
President signed Space Policy Directive 1 which requires NASA to ``Lead
an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial
and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar
system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities.''
This was nearly 45 years to the moment since the last time that NASA
landed humans on the Moon.
NASA will shift the focus of its human exploration program to the
Moon and cislunar region with an eye towards Mars, evaluating new
habitat technologies, surface transportation systems, landing systems,
fuel generation, and storage solutions. In every domain, we intend to
renew and strengthen our commitment to American commercial space
companies, which are critical partners in the human exploration of the
Moon, Mars, and beyond. As NASA reorients the human spaceflight program
back to the Moon and beyond to Mars, we will push to develop new ways
of operating in LEO that will benefit our exploration endeavors,
science goals, and ultimately the taxpayers.
As you know, the ISS currently serves as a unique platform to
prepare for human exploration beyond LEO, promotes U.S. economic
activity in space, and accelerates innovative research and technology
development. Equally important, under the leadership of the United
States, the ISS contributes to America's preeminence around the world
in space and technological innovation. Since its inception over 30
years ago, the ISS partnership has been a model of peaceful
international cooperation. ISS has exceeded all of its original goals
and accomplished many things that were never envisioned. Things like
helping to establish a cube satellite market and helping to return
commercial satellite launches to the U.S. through reduced launch costs.
However, NASA must look beyond ISS in its current form in order to
continue U.S. leadership in LEO; that is why the NASA Transition
Authorization Act of 2017, together with the Administration, are united
in transitioning NASA's LEO activities to a model where NASA is one of
many customers of a vibrant, U.S.-led, commercial LEO enterprise. The
synergy between industry and Government requirements in this endeavor
cannot be overstated. We are partners in ensuring American preeminence
as the world's leading spacefaring nation.
The Administration views public-private partnerships as the
foundation of future U.S. civilian space efforts, and NASA is
continuing to develop cooperation on use of the Station to enable
increased commercial investment and to transition to more public-
private partnership models. For example, the Agency has begun to
transition from a model where NASA provides payload integration and
other services to one where those services can be purchased from many
commercial partners.
As we consider the future of the ISS and U.S. leadership in space,
it is helpful to review the benefits provided by U.S. leadership in LEO
to exploration, space commercialization, and terrestrial applications.
Preparing for Human Deep Space Missions
In order to prepare for human expeditions into deep space, the
Agency must first conduct breakthrough research and test the advanced
technology necessary to keep crews safe and productive on long-duration
space exploration missions. On-orbit platforms are necessary to
mitigate 22 of the 33 human health risks in the portfolio identified by
NASA's Human Research Program in support of current and future deep
space missions. The research to mitigate these risks must continue
beyond 2025 to ensure that we learn what is necessary to travel deeper
into space and to live and work in microgravity for long durations.
This requirement will not go away no matter what orbital platforms are
used.
NASA also plans to continue to use LEO facilities as testbeds to
fill critical gaps in technologies that will be needed for long-
duration deep space missions. For example, elements of the ISS life
support and other habitation systems will be evolved into the systems
that will be used for deep space exploration missions and undergo long-
duration testing. It is NASA's plan to first develop and demonstrate
many critical technology capabilities using LEO platforms prior to
deploying these capabilities beyond LEO. This approach is much more
cost-effective and faster than conducting this research in cislunar
space because of the risks inherent in operating so far from the Earth.
As both research and technology development requirements evolve,
NASA will look to take advantage of additional platforms in LEO as a
way to accelerate development timetables. If there are cheaper and more
efficient ways to meet these requirements, NASA is prepared to utilize
them.
Enabling a LEO Commercial Market
NASA's vision for LEO is a sustained U.S. commercial human
spaceflight marketplace where NASA is one of many customers. We
envision multiple privately-owned/operated platforms--human-tended,
permanently-crewed, or robotic--together with transportation
capabilities for crew and cargo that enable a variety of activities in
LEO, where those platforms and capabilities are sustained to a greater
degree than today by commercial revenue. These future platforms may
either leverage ISS or be free-flying. This flexibility allows the
private sector to determine how best to meet the market demand rather
than have the Government dictate how to meet this demand.
NASA must also communicate our forecasted needs in LEO to allow the
private sector to anticipate that demand in their business cases. The
Administration has proposed 2025 as the date by which direct Federal
support of ISS will end; setting this date provides market clarity for
our commercial LEO supply partners. At the last National Space Council
meeting at Kennedy Space Center, the Vice President asked the NASA
Administrator to work with the secretaries of State and Commerce to
develop a strategy for how we can further enable cooperation with our
international and private industry partners to continue to develop the
infrastructure and policies necessary to spur economic growth in space.
That work is ongoing and we plan to deliver some of those
recommendations at the fall meeting of the Council.
In this vision, NASA would be able to share the cost of LEO
platforms with other commercial, Government, and international users.
This would allow NASA to maximize its resources toward missions beyond
LEO, while still having the ability to utilize LEO for its ongoing
needs for research, training, and technology development.
In order to enable this vision, NASA is not only executing several
public-private partnerships, currently centered around the ISS, to
foster the development of customers for LEO capabilities, but also is
maturing the supply industry to be able to meet future demands. NASA is
also initiating the Commercial LEO Development program to further the
development of commercial on-orbit capabilities beyond what is
available today through the ISS.
The Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) contracts, the Commercial
Crew Program, and the ISS National Laboratory are key complementary
activities to enable this vision. Under the CRS contracts, NASA's two
commercial cargo partners, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) and
Orbital ATK, have demonstrated not only the ability to provide cargo
deliveries to ISS, but also the flexibility to recover effectively from
mishaps. The addition of the Sierra Nevada Corporation as a third
commercial service provider will add significant on-orbit and return
capability. Both Orbital ATK and Sierra Nevada Corporation have begun
to investigate options to perform significant on-orbit operations after
their primary cargo mission is completed. These two providers are able
to provide an on-orbit research capability independent of ISS. NASA's
commercial crew partners, SpaceX and the Boeing Company, are developing
the Crew Dragon and CST-100 Starliner spacecraft, respectively. These
companies have made significant progress toward returning crew launches
to the U.S., and NASA anticipates having these capabilities in place by
2019 to regularly fly astronauts safely to and from ISS. The crew and
cargo vehicles, as well as the launch vehicles developed by these
providers, have the potential to support future commercial enterprises
as well as ISS.
The Center for the Advancement of Science In Space (CASIS) manages
the activities of the ISS National Laboratory to increase the
utilization of the ISS by other Federal entities and the private
sector. CASIS works to ensure that the Station's unique capabilities
are available to the broadest possible cross-section of U.S.
scientific, technological, and industrial communities. The ISS National
Laboratory is helping to establish and demonstrate the market for
research, technology demonstration, and other activities in LEO beyond
the requirements of NASA. Commercial implementation partners are now
bringing their own customers to LEO through the National Laboratory, as
well.
ISS Transition
In the NASA Transition Authorization Act of 2017, Congress
requested a plan from NASA to transition ISS from the current regime
that relies heavily on NASA sponsorship to a regime where NASA could be
one of many customers of a LEO non-Governmental human spaceflight
enterprise. NASA has been building a strategy and assessing options
that support this vision for the future of human spaceflight in LEO,
and this is reflected in the ISS Transition Report, delivered to
Congress in late March of this year. NASA anticipates that the ISS is
capable of continuing to operate within prudent technical margins and
its lifetime could exceed original engineering estimates. This is a
testament to American ingenuity and technological prowess.
However, complacency is the enemy of progress in technology
development. We must continue to push the boundaries of what we believe
is possible, not just for NASA but for the entire space industry. NASA
is ready to ensure that LEO is open for American business and that our
international partners have a role to play in lunar development. The
development of commercial space operations in LEO will benefit NASA as
we continue to utilize those capabilities to do the things that only
NASA can do in exploration. Those principals are two sides of the same
coin--they operate together and are not mutually exclusive.
As we contemplate what will happen in this transition, it is
important that we remember lessons learned from the ISS and continue to
build on them for the next phase of NASA's involvement in LEO and
beyond. This transition is an opportunity to demonstrate to the world
that U.S. leadership in space is not about one program, but about the
qualities that make us the greatest spacefaring nation on the planet.
Our insistence that the industry has the ability to respond to
Government imperatives and that our international partners can count on
us to lead the next generation of capabilities in LEO and beyond will
light the way for this next phase of human exploration.
ISS Transition Principles
Several key principles will be reflected in any strategy or
decision regarding the ISS and the future of LEO, as well as NASA's
role as one of many customers of services or capabilities that are
provided by private industry as part of a broader commercial market.
The following principles will ensure uninterrupted access to LEO
capabilities and long-term national interests in human space
exploration, while supporting national security objectives, such as a
competitive industrial base and U.S. leadership:
Expanding U.S. human spaceflight leadership in LEO and deep
space exploration, including continuity of the relationships
with our current ISS international partners;
Increasing platform options in LEO to enable more ISS
transition pathways, security through redundant capabilities,
and industrial capability that can support NASA's deep space
exploration needs;
Spurring vibrant commercial activity in LEO;
Continuing to return benefits to humanity through
Government-sponsored basic and applied on-orbit research;
Providing continuity among NASA's LEO, deep space
exploration, and development and research activities and
missions toward expanding human presence into the solar system;
Maintaining critical human spaceflight knowledge and
expertise within the Government in areas such as astronaut
health and performance, life support, safety, and critical
operational ground and crew experience;
Continuing Government-sponsored access to LEO research
facilities that enable other Government agencies, academia, and
private industry to increase U.S. industrial competitiveness
and provide goods and services to U.S. citizens; and
Continuing to reduce the Government's long-term costs
through private industry partnerships and competitive
acquisition strategies.
ISS Transition Strategy
As part of a cohesive exploration strategy, NASA intends to meet
its needs and requirements in LEO by leveraging private industry
capacity, innovation, and competitiveness that could offer the prospect
of lower cost to the U.S. Government, while at the same time expanding
the economic sphere of U.S. industry into LEO and beyond. This could
enable NASA to apply more personnel and budget resources to expanding
human space exploration beyond LEO and enhancing U.S. leadership in
human spaceflight around the world. Beyond the prospect of lower
operational costs for a LEO platform, shifting focus to industry can
additionally reduce the infrastructure burden on NASA, which could
reduce operations and maintenance costs.
In order to ensure that private industry is prepared to provide the
services and capabilities that support NASA's needs in LEO, as outlined
in the key principles above, and to enable private industry to develop
markets and customers beyond the Government, NASA is proposing the
following approach:
1. Begin a step-wise transition of LEO human spaceflight operations
from a Government-directed activity to a model where private
industry is responsible for how to meet and execute NASA's
requirements. Consistent with the ISS Transition Principles,
this does not mean NASA is ``commercializing the ISS.''
Instead, NASA maintains U.S. Government leadership and
responsibilities as outlined in the Partnership agreements, and
continues to maintain the essential elements of human
spaceflight, such as astronaut safety and the high-risk
exploration systems.
This will give NASA time to engage with industry to begin
transforming the many NASA-directed activities that are
currently performed through several contracts into more of a
public-private partnership and/or services contract(s) model
where NASA's current responsibilities are executed and managed
by private industry. This time period will also provide the
opportunity for NASA and private industry to engage with
stakeholders and to only proceed when industry has matured and
is capable of executing NASA's requirements. The transition of
ISS will ensure that there are private companies with the
experience and expertise to operate various types of platforms
in LEO by the mid-2020s. This transition to private industry
must be done in a cost-effective manner and not exceed current
operational costs.
Consistent with the ISS Transition Principles, NASA will continue
discussions with the ISS international partners to help shape
the long-term future of LEO.
2. Solicit information from industry on the development and
operations of private on-orbit modules and/or platforms and
other capabilities that NASA could utilize to meet its long-
term LEO requirements that are consistent with the ISS
Transition Principles. The scope of the solicitation may
include risk reduction development activities, or modules or
elements that could either be attached to the ISS or be free-
flying. The solicitation may also include private-industry-
conducted studies on the future of the ISS platform that may be
combined with private industry objectives in LEO.
NASA began with a solicitation in FY 2018 to gather broad
industry input on interest in meeting NASA's long-term needs
and objectives that should lead to multiple awards in FY 2019
funded out of the Commercial LEO Development program.
3. NASA will also be working with the Department of Commerce to
investigate opportunities to facilitate and enable private
industry to develop new market opportunities in LEO. It is
important that U.S. industry discover the global competitive
advantage of utilizing space for research and revenue-
generation activities. This ultimately allows NASA to be one of
many customers.
ISS Considerations and the Eventual Future of the ISS Platform
From a structural integrity analysis standpoint, the ISS platform
is expected to have significant structural life well beyond 2028 (based
on the current assessment period). Many of the ISS modules,
particularly the modules launched in the later years of ISS assembly,
are likely to have structural life well into the 2030s. Although it is
thus likely technically feasible to continue to operate the ISS well
beyond 2028 with continued maintenance, it is also necessary to
consider the current high costs of operating this complex facility. The
ISS lifetime must also be considered in the context of what our
national priorities are for a robust LEO economy. The LEO economy is
unlikely to reach its full potential if the Federal Government is the
sole supplier of LEO research capabilities.
The future of the ISS will be evaluated using the ISS Transition
Principles to ensure there is no gap in the availability of a LEO
platform to meet NASA's needs, whether this means transitioning the
operations of the ISS to private industry through public-private
partnership, augmenting the ISS with privately developed modules,
combining portions of the ISS with a new private platform, or de-
orbiting the ISS and beginning anew with a free-flying platform.
Decisions about the future of the ISS will be discussed across the
ISS international partnership. The partners agree on common themes for
considering the future of ISS and exploration, including:
Reducing operational costs;
Offering frequent visible national astronaut opportunities;
Continuation and continuity of research and technology
development activities;
Building synergies between LEO and exploration activities;
and
Support of commercial opportunities.
NASA's Long-Term LEO Requirements
NASA and the U.S. have a long history of human spaceflight
leadership and LEO research and technology development that go all the
way back to the Mercury program through Gemini, Apollo, Skylab, the
Space Shuttle, and the ISS.
Regardless of what happens next in this transition, NASA will
maintain U.S. leadership in LEO and human spaceflight through lunar
exploration as a basis for gaining the knowledge and capabilities for
Mars consistent with the ISS Transition Principles. Within that
context, NASA is planning to continue with the following LEO needs and
objectives beyond the life of ISS:
Maintaining the current ISS international partnership and
possibly adding new international and domestic participants;
Conducting regular LEO crewed operations, including short-
and long-duration missions:
Enabling operational space proficiency;
Shifting from human health and performance
countermeasures development (the ISS portion of which is
expected to be complete by 2024) to validations of
integrated long-duration systems, habitation, operations,
and crew isolation;
Developing and demonstrating long-term technology/systems
(e.g., life support);
Conducting space life and physical sciences basic and
applied research at current level and capabilities;
Conducting National-Laboratory-based research and technology
development; and
Providing opportunities for astrophysics, space, and Earth
Science research.
These long-term requirements, while similar to that of the current
ISS Program, could be met with various types of modules or platforms
that do not necessitate a vehicle (or vehicles) as complex as the ISS.
Many of the research activities could be conducted on shorter-duration
platforms, similar to the Space Shuttle, or even crew-tended platforms.
Fast Forwarding to the Mid-2020s
Continuing with current policies, including the Commercial LEO
Development program, NASA can project what the LEO landscape may look
like in the mid-2020s. We will maintain our strong global leadership
position in LEO, starting with the continuation of the ISS through
2024, the validation of commercial cargo and crew transportation costs,
and the completion of many NASA exploration-related human and systems
research and demonstration activities. Through the commercial LEO
development program, we hope to have in operation multiple alternatives
to the current model of space station operations that can both meet
growing commercial needs and meet Government needs at a lower total
cost to the Government than exists today.
Conclusion
NASA looks forward to working with Congressional stakeholders,
researchers, private industry, and our ISS international partners on
the future of the ISS and LEO, to ensure that the U.S. maintains our
human spaceflight leadership.
Mr. Chairman, I would be happy to respond to any questions you or
the other Members of the Subcommittee may have.
Senator Cruz. Thank you, Mr. Gerstenmaier.
Mr. Martin.
STATEMENT OF HON. PAUL K. MARTIN, INSPECTOR GENERAL, NATIONAL
AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION
Mr. Martin. Thank you, Chairman Cruz, Senator Nelson, and
thank you for the opportunity to discuss the future of the
International Space Station.
Over the past 5 years, the Office of Inspector General has
issued 13 reports related to the ISS, including reviews on
NASA's efforts to maximize onboard research, manage contracts
with private companies to fly cargo and crew, and maintain
international partnerships that fund almost one-quarter of the
Station's annual expenses.
My testimony today is informed by these past reviews, but
draws primarily on findings from a forthcoming OIG audit that
assesses NASA's progress in maximizing utilization of the ISS
to accomplish its human exploration objectives. This report,
which we plan to publicly release in a few weeks, will also
examine the challenges associated with continuing ISS
operations after 2024, as well as the status of NASA's plans
for the Station's eventual decommissioning and deorbit.
For the past 20 years, the ISS has served as a unique
platform for humans to learn about living and working in space,
but a platform that costs NASA between $3 billion to $4 billion
annually or about half of its human space flight budget. The
President's 2019 budget request proposes ending direct Federal
funding of the ISS beginning in 2025, and a March report
outlines NASA's plans to become one of many customers of a
commercially operated station or other privately owned low
Earth orbit platform. In my remarks today, I offer three
observations about the Administration's admittedly high-level
plans for the ISS post-2024.
Observation One. Based on our work, we question whether a
sufficient business case exists under which private companies
can create a self-sustaining and profit-making business using
the ISS independent of significant government funding. From our
perspective, it is unlikely that a private entity or entities
would assume the Station's annual operating costs currently
projected at $1.2 billion in 2024. Such a business case
requires robust demand for commercial market activities.
Candidly, the scant commercial interest shown in the Station
over its nearly 20 years of operation give us pause about the
agency's current plans.
Observation Two. The amount of savings NASA may realize
through commercialization of the ISS may be less than expected
given the significant expenditures--particularly for crew and
cargo transportation for NASA-sponsored flights to LEO coupled
with ongoing civil servant and infrastructure costs--are
expected to continue past 2025, even if many activities
transition to a privatized ISS or another commercial platform.
Consequently, any assumption that ending direct Federal funding
frees up $3 billion to $4 billion beginning in 2025 to use on
other NASA exploration initiatives is wishful thinking.
That said, unless the agency receives a substantial
increase in funding or can dramatically reduce costs, it will
be hard pressed to continue supporting ISS operations under its
current model while attempting to fund other initiatives such
as the Lunar Gateway, a lunar orbit and moon landing, and a
crewed Mars mission.
Observation Three. One obvious alternative is to extend ISS
operations under the current regime, which from a technical
standpoint is doable, given that the Station's infrastructure
and critical equipment are or soon will be certified to at
least 2028. Our recent audit work determined that research for
at least six of 20 top human health risks that require the ISS
for testing and four of 40 technology gaps will not be
completed by the end of 2024.
In addition, research into two other human health risks and
17 technology gaps are not scheduled to be completed until
sometime in 2024, meaning that even minor schedule slippages
could push their completion past the Station's planned
retirement date.
Finally, at some future point, whether in an emergency or
because its useful life has ended, NASA likely will need to
decommission and deorbit most or all of the Station. NASA
estimates a controlled re-entry of the ISS will take up to 3
years to execute and cost approximately $950 million. However,
NASA has not finalized such a plan or developed the necessary
capabilities to safely deorbit the Station in an emergency.
In whatever time remains, NASA must redouble its efforts to
maximize the Station's potential, and the sooner Congress and
the Administration agree on a path forward for the ISS, the
better NASA will be able to plan.
Thank you.
[The prepared statement of Mr. Martin follows:]
Prepared Statement of Hon. Paul K. Martin, Inspector General,
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Chairman Cruz, Ranking Member Markey, and Members of the
Subcommittee:
The Office of Inspector General (OIG) is committed to providing
independent, aggressive, and objective oversight of NASA, and we
welcome this opportunity to discuss the Agency's utilization of the
International Space Station (ISS or Station) and the challenges and
opportunities related to its post-2024 future.\1\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ The ISS is currently authorized to continue operations until
October 1, 2024.
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The OIG has issued 13 reports related to the ISS over the past 5
years, including reviews on NASA's efforts to maximize research, extend
its operations, manage contracts with private companies to fly cargo
and eventually crew to the Station, and maintain international
partnerships that fund close to one-quarter of the Station's annual
expenses. My testimony today is informed by these past reports, but
primarily draws on findings in a forthcoming audit assessing NASA's
progress in maximizing utilization of the ISS to accomplish its human
exploration objectives. This report--which we plan to release publicly
in the next few weeks--will also examine the options and challenges
associated with the Station's eventual retirement and deorbit.
For the past 20 years, the ISS has served as a platform for humans
to learn about living and working in space. NASA's original vision was
that astronauts living on the Station would conduct biological and
materials research, demonstrate American leadership in space, forge
international cooperation, and lead efforts to commercialize low Earth
orbit. To date, the Agency has accomplished many of these goals. NASA
has sponsored research aboard the ISS in the areas of life and physical
sciences, human health, astrophysics, Earth sciences, space science,
and commercial research and development for pharmaceuticals, materials,
manufacturing, and consumer products. The ISS has also been used in
disaster response on Earth by providing near-real time mapping support
for recovery and humanitarian aid efforts. However, all of these
achievements have come at a cost of $3--$4 billion annually or about
half of NASA's annual human space flight budget.\2\
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\2\ In FY 2018, the ISS budget included approximately $1.7 billion
for crew and cargo transportation, $1 billion for systems operations
and maintenance, $267 million for research, and $225 million for labor
and travel.
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Against this backdrop, the President's Fiscal Year (FY) 2019 budget
request proposes ending direct Federal funding of the ISS beginning in
2025, and a congressionally mandated report prepared by NASA and
submitted in late March provides a high-level outline of the Agency's
plan to transition the Station to commercial operation. Our forthcoming
report examines this plan as well as other options the Agency may
consider, including extending ISS operations beyond the current
retirement date and the necessity at some future point to safely
dispose of the Station through a controlled destructive re-entry into
the Earth's atmosphere.
Transition to Private Operations
NASA's current plan for the future of the ISS past 2024 is to
transition responsibility for its operation--in whole or in part--to a
commercial entity or entities. The Agency expects this approach to
offset some portion of its substantial annual investment in ISS
operations while providing more cost-effective operation of the Station
through increased private sector investment, ultimately spurring
greater commercial development of low Earth orbit. Under this plan,
NASA envisions itself as only one of many customers for the ISS or
other privately-owned and operated low Earth orbit platforms.
As part of this vision, the Agency is considering a range of
options including transitioning operations to private industry,
augmenting the Station with privately developed modules, combining
portions of the current platform with a new private platform, or
deploying an entirely new free-flying platform and de-orbiting the ISS.
NASA is also assessing whether its long-term research requirements,
while similar to those of the current ISS Program, could be met with
platforms or modules that do not require a vehicle as complex and
expensive as the ISS.
NASA has taken several concrete steps over the past 10 years to
meet its goal of increasing commercialization of the ISS and low Earth
orbit. Most prominently, NASA pays commercial partners Orbital ATK and
Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) to deliver cargo to
the ISS with a third contractor, the Sierra Nevada Corporation,
scheduled to begin resupply flights in 2020.\3\ In addition, NASA is
paying The Boeing Company (Boeing) and SpaceX to transport astronauts
to the ISS as early as FY 2019. These activities represent NASA's most
significant investment in the commercialization of low Earth orbit,
given that cargo and crew transportation account for approximately $1.7
billion or roughly 50 percent of the Station's annual costs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\3\ Through its first round of Commercial Resupply Services
contracts (CRS-1), NASA awarded a total of 31 cargo resupply missions
to Orbital ATK and SpaceX worth $5.9 billion, or an average cost of
$191.3 million per mission. As a follow-on to CRS-1, in 2016 NASA
awarded a second round of resupply contracts known as CRS-2 to Orbital
ATK, SpaceX, and the Sierra Nevada Corporation.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASA is also engaging private industry directly regarding potential
future commercialization of the ISS. For example, in July 2016 NASA
issued a Request for Information seeking industry ideas to stimulate
economic development through the use of unique ISS capabilities. Last
month, NASA released a Research Announcement soliciting industry
concepts, business plans, and viability studies for development of
commercial platforms in low Earth orbit, as well as industry input on
the role Government should play in the commercialization of low Earth
orbit. NASA also plans to coordinate with the Departments of Commerce
and Transportation to create a multi-agency working group to identify
specific actions or legislation that would enhance development of a
commercial market in low Earth orbit.
While all of these actions are positive steps, NASA's current plan
to privatize the ISS remains a controversial and highly debatable
proposition, particularly with regard to the feasibility of fostering
increased commercial activity in low Earth orbit. Specifically, it is
questionable whether a sufficient business case exists under which
private companies can create a self-sustaining and profit-making
business independent of significant Government funding. In particular,
it is unlikely that a private entity or entities would assume the
Station's annual operating costs, currently projected at $1.2 billion
in 2024. Such a business case requires robust demand for commercial
market activities such as space tourism, satellite servicing,
manufacturing of goods, and research and development, all of which have
yet to materialize.
Candidly, the scant commercial interest shown in the Station over
its nearly 20 years of operation gives us pause about the Agency's
current plan. This concern is illustrated by NASA's limited success in
stimulating non-NASA activity aboard the Station through the Center for
the Advancement of Science in Space, Inc. (CASIS). Established in 2011
to facilitate use of the ISS by commercial companies, academia, and
other Government and non-Government actors for their research or
commercial purposes, CASIS's efforts have fallen short of expectations.
Apart from these privatization challenges, the amount of cost savings
NASA may realize through commercialization of the ISS may be less than
expected given that significant expenditures--particularly in crew and
cargo transportation and civil servant costs--will likely continue even
if many low Earth orbit activities transition to a privatized ISS or
another commercial platform.
Extension and Continued Operations
An obvious alternative to privatization is to extend current ISS
operations. NASA originally targeted the Station's service life to end
in 2015, approximately 15 years from the time its first elements were
placed into orbit. Since that time, NASA has extended the Station's
operational life on two occasions: the first in 2011 when ISS
construction was nearing completion (an extension through 2020) and the
second in 2014 that approved continuation of ISS operations through
2024.
NASA is currently evaluating the feasibility of extending the
Station's service life through at least 2028. As of June 2017, Boeing,
NASA's prime ISS contractor, had certified all major U.S. structural
elements to 2028 with the exception of an external stowage platform and
six truss segments that it expects to certify by 2019. In addition,
Boeing has assessed and cleared to 2028 critical operational
capabilities such as electrical power, environmental control and life
support, and thermal control.
An extension to 2028 or beyond would enable NASA to continue
critical on-orbit research into human health risks and to demonstrate
the technologies that will be required for future missions to the Moon
or Mars. In recent audit work we determined that, as of February 2018,
NASA forecast that research for at least 6 of 20 human health risks
requiring the ISS for testing and 4 of 40 technology gaps will not be
completed by the Station's planned retirement in September 2024. In
addition, research into 2 other human health risks and 17 additional
technology gaps is not scheduled to be completed until sometime in
2024, meaning that even minor schedule slippage could push completion
past the Station's planned retirement date.
While NASA may be able to find alternative, ground-based testing
options for certain health risks and technology demonstrations, Agency
officials have stressed that research into others will continue to
require the Station's unique microgravity environment. If the remaining
health risks and technology demonstrations cannot be fully tested on
the ISS, NASA may have to accept higher levels of risk than planned for
future exploration missions.
Extending the ISS past 2024 presents NASA with multiple challenges,
most pointedly its $3--$4 billion annual cost. Moreover, any extension
could also increase the possibility of failure in the Station's aging
systems and infrastructure. Finally, continued support from NASA's
international partners--who currently pick up about 23 percent of the
U.S. Segment's operating costs--remains an open question beyond 2024.
Funding Issues
NASA currently spends about half of its Space Operations budget in
support of ISS operations and will continue to do so with any extension
of the ISS's service life beyond 2024. Unless the Agency receives a
substantial increase in funding or can dramatically reduce the cost of
ISS operation and maintenance, NASA will be hard pressed to continue
supporting ISS operations under its current model while attempting to
fund its other potential space exploration initiatives such as the
Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway, a lunar orbit/landing mission, and
preparations for a crewed Mars mission.
Even if the Agency ends direct funding of the ISS in 2025 as
envisioned in the President's FY 2019 budget request, it is unlikely
that the bulk of the funding currently devoted to the ISS Program could
be immediately diverted to these and other exploration activities. Even
with termination of most Station activities, NASA expects to retain a
presence in low Earth orbit and therefore would need to fund related
crew and cargo transportation costs. Furthermore, significant funding
would be required to maintain offices and infrastructure currently
funded by the ISS Program such as the Mission Operations office, which
is expected to be needed by future exploration programs.
Over the past 10 years, NASA has worked to reduce the costs of
supporting the ISS, particularly crew and cargo services--the Program's
most expensive element. In addition, NASA has saved more than $172
million annually since 2007 through de-scoping, renegotiating, and
combining Station-related contracts. For example, NASA renegotiated the
Program's largest contract for engineering support with Boeing in 2010,
reducing requirements and saving an estimated $67 million per year. In
addition, by combining its mission support, program integration, and
infrastructure operations contracts, NASA estimates it has saved an
average $59 million per year since 2013. NASA also awarded a new
contract in 2015 to support spaceflight operations, thereby reducing
costs by an average $46 million per year. While these are positive cost
reductions, taken together they represent a small portion of the ISS
Program's overall budget.
Managing Risks of Hardware Failures
By 2028, the original elements of the Station will be 30 years old
and will have operated for 3 decades in a harsh microgravity
environment, exposed to ionizing radiation, extreme temperature
changes, and micrometeoroids and orbital debris. While many systems
have been replaced or upgraded and the Agency has not identified any
structural issues that would preclude an extension through 2028, risks
related to hardware degradation, system failure, and technological
obsolescence may increase with continued operation beyond 2024. These
issues have significant implications on NASA's ability to repair or
replace components because transportation of relatively large items is
more difficult since retirement of the Space Shuttle, an issue NASA is
taking steps to address.
According to NASA, micrometeoroids and orbital debris strikes are
the primary threat to the Station's integrity because a direct strike
can cause catastrophic and irreversible depressurization or other
significant damage with immediate life-threatening risks to the crew.
To mitigate this risk, the U.S. Government currently tracks more than
500,000 pieces of man-made, orbital debris, which consists of
nonfunctional spacecraft, abandoned launch vehicle stages, and other
mission-related debris.
Continued Support of International Partners
Lastly, any discussion of whether to extend ISS operations past
2024 needs to consider the level of support from NASA's current
international partners--Russia, the European Space Agency (ESA),
Canada, and Japan--whose continued participation hinges on issues
ranging from international politics to differing space exploration
goals. For example, the outlook for Russia's continued involvement with
the ISS is uncertain given the current state of relations between the
two countries. Russia's role is critical to sustaining Station
operations because it controls the Station's propulsion system and
propellant and is currently the only partner capable of providing crew
transportation to and from the ISS. The participation of NASA's other
current international partners is also unsettled at this time given
their desire to consider exploration missions beyond the ISS. For
example, ESA has announced its intent to partner with NASA on the Lunar
Orbital Platform-Gateway and other lunar activities. ESA is also
working with the Chinese Space Agency to fly European astronauts on the
Chinese space station planned for operation in 2022. Given that NASA's
current international partners cover 23 percent of the Station's shared
annual costs, the loss of one or more of these space agencies could
have a significant impact on NASA's cost to extend ISS operations
beyond 2024.
Decommission and Deorbit
At some point, whether in an emergency or because its useful life
has ended, NASA will need to decommission and deorbit the Station.
Ideally, this will occur via a controlled, destructive re-entry into
the Earth's atmosphere. NASA estimates a controlled reentry of the ISS
will take up to 3 years to execute and cost approximately $950 million.
However, the Agency has not completed the necessary tasks to execute
such a deorbit. In January 2017, NASA completed a draft plan to address
various deorbit scenarios; however, the plan has not been finalized and
is pending review by the Russia Space Agency. And, while NASA engineers
continue to work on the technical details of deorbit scenarios, the
Agency presently does not have the capability to ensure a controlled
deorbit of the ISS in the event of an emergency.
Conclusion
For the past 20 years, NASA has used the ISS as a research platform
in low Earth orbit essential for advancing its deep space ambitions.
But such celestial research comes at a steep cost: each year the
Station remains in orbit, NASA allocates roughly half of its total
human space flight budget to ISS operations--an expenditure that limits
the Agency's ability to fund development of systems needed to visit the
moon and other destinations beyond low Earth orbit.
Each of the options for extending, transitioning, or retiring the
ISS presents NASA with significant challenges that will require it to
balance cost, feasibility, and risk. The President's FY 2019 budget
request proposes ending direct Federal funding of the ISS by 2025, at
which time NASA proposes transitioning the Station to commercial
operations. While this proposal faces an uncertain future in Congress,
we question whether a sufficient business case will exist by that time
to make such an option feasible.
Similarly, NASA's other options present challenges. Extension of
the ISS past 2024 will require significant ongoing funding, which would
eat into the money available for NASA to pursue its other exploration
goals. In addition, extending the ISS to 2028 or beyond would increase
safety risks due to aging hardware and equipment. Moreover, it is
unclear whether NASA can count on funding from its existing
international partners if it seeks to extend the Station's operations
beyond 2024. Finally, NASA needs to finalize a plan to decommission and
safely deorbit all or part of the ISS at the end of its useful life.
Regardless of the outcome, NASA must redouble its efforts to
maximize the potential of whatever time remains on the Station.
Important work on several human health risks and technology
demonstrations will not be completed by 2024, leaving NASA with the
choice of extending Station operations, relying on alternate testing
methods, or accepting higher levels of risk. The sooner Congress and
the Administration decide on a path forward for the future of the ISS,
the better NASA will be able to plan.
Senator Cruz. Thank you, Mr. Martin. Thank you, gentlemen,
for your testimony.
Mr. Gerstenmaier, where did the 2025 date to end Federal
support for the ISS that's cited in both the ISS Transition
Report and also the President's budget request--where did that
date originate?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. It originated in the Administration.
Senator Cruz. Did it originate in OMB?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. I don't know specifically where it came
from, but it came from the Administration and discussions about
picking a date collectively.
Senator Cruz. So the date did not come from NASA?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. We didn't pick a particular date. We
talked about criteria, as you've seen in the Transition Report
and other things. We didn't see the necessity of picking a
specific date within the agency, but as part of the
Administration, we came to the conclusion that picking a date
would prompt a serious discussion.
Senator Cruz. The NASA Transition Authorization Act of
2017, as you know, required NASA to submit the ISS Transition
Report to Congress not later than December 1, 2017. NASA was 3
months late in submitting that report, which was in direct
contradiction to Federal law. How many drafts of the ISS
Transition Report were prepared before the final report was
submitted to Congress on March 30, 2018?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. I don't have a specific number, but we go
through a pretty iterative process of putting the report
together with lots of comments from a variety of folks, so
there were numerous iterations of the report placed together. I
think part of the reason was the complexity of the report. If
you look at the requirement language in the bill, there was a
lot of information required, and we did our best to pull
together all that data, and, frankly, we missed the December
date on our own just because we couldn't get the information
put together and written down in time to make that December
date.
Senator Cruz. Is it correct that NASA sent at least two
drafts to the Administration, both of which were rejected?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. I don't know. I'd have to go check on the
specific number. I would say they'd never been rejected. They
get sent over, and we get comments back. We iterate back and
forth on the comments, and that occurred after the December
deadline. It occurred this year.
Senator Cruz. On February 20, 2018, Senator Nelson and I
together sent a letter to NASA requesting, quote, ``All
preliminary versions of the ISS Transition Report as described
in Public Law 115-10 including any drafts of the report that
have been delivered to OMB or the National Space Council for
review.'' To date, that request has not been complied with.
Does NASA intend to comply with that request?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. Let me take that question for the record,
and we'll deliberate and see.
[The information referred to follows:]
Answer: The process of generating a report is an iterative one,
both inside NASA and with the rest of the Administration. Thus, it is
not the case that drafts are ``rejected''--they are revised to reflect
the wider policy context in which they are developed.
Answer: Draft reports are predecisional materials that reflect
Executive Branch deliberations. They often contain initial views of
individuals before other individuals have commented and further
discussions occur. They are by nature preliminary and often do not
reflect the ultimate view of the Administration or the Agency.
Accordingly, their release creates a risk of impeding the free exchange
of views and positions that is critical to effective decision-making.
Senator Cruz. To your knowledge, is someone in the
Administration specifically blocking NASA from providing those
documents?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. There's no specific blockage. I think we
just need to discuss amongst ourselves what the benefit is and
what's in those versions of the documents and see if they're
helpful or not in the discussion moving forward. Many of the
comments will reflect actual debates within NASA itself, where
we had lots of discussions back and forth about what should be
in the document, what shouldn't be in the document, et cetera.
Some of those things we consider somewhat pre-decisional, where
we'd like to have that free debate within the agency.
We think it's important for us to have open dialogue within
the agency where we can disagree with each other and not be
subject to external review. So for some of those reasons, we'd
like to hold some of those back. But I'd like to meet with our
teams and the legal folks, and we'll get together and determine
what the right approach is.
Senator Cruz. Well, let me be clear. We're not asking for
internal documents within NASA. We're asking for any drafts
that were submitted to OMB. So, presumably, once a draft was
submitted to OMB, NASA had resolved the internal questions and
was submitting something for approval, and it is my concern
that considerations other than the merits of the science drove
this decisionmaking process.
So the letter from Senator Nelson and me was not a request
for NASA to assess how helpful it might be or not to have those
drafts submitted to OMB turned over to us. It is rather for
Congress to make that determination.
Let me ask a different question on the merits. Mr.
Gerstenmaier, as a scientific matter, is the ISS capable of
operating beyond 2025?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. Yes.
Senator Cruz. How long do you believe we can safely operate
the ISS?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. We've done a look at the structural
integrity and the major components through 2028, and it looks
very viable through 2028. The current maintenance on Station is
fairly low. We just did a space walk today to repair some
things and move things forward, but that's predicted. I think
we have a good operational life at least through 2028 and
possibly a little bit further beyond that. We just need to
continue to watch Station and continue to maintain it.
The IG calls out in their report components we need to
watch and upgrade and maintain. But the teams are doing a good
job of doing that and keeping it in good operational
capability. What we don't want to have happen is where we're
spending more time doing maintenance than we are doing
research. At that point, then, the utility of Station starts to
diminish, and we have not seen that yet. Station is very viable
at least through 2028.
Senator Cruz. Page six of the ISS Transition Report states,
quote, ``Among the benefits beyond the prospect of lower
operational costs for an LEO platform, shifting focus to
industry can additionally reduce the infrastructure burden on
NASA, as has already been demonstrated at NASA facilities at
Kennedy Space Center, Johnson Space Center, Stennis Space
Center, and Michoud Assembly Facility.''
If the policy as described in the ISS Transition Report is
carried out, how will the infrastructure of the Johnson Space
Center be reduced?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. I think what the report is referring to
is it's talking about a way we can reduce the infrastructure
costs for NASA programs. So in the case of the Michoud Assembly
Facility, we were able to bring some commercial companies in
that could use the facilities at Michoud in parallel with our
operations. So then they would share some of the facility use,
some of the utility bills, some of the support personnel. There
were multiple users in the facility of which NASA only had to
pay now a portion of some of that infrastructure cost. So
that's what that report is referring to.
So when we think of Space Station, if we have multiple
users in space, where NASA is just one of multiple users, then
that cost of infrastructure and, say, cargo flights or crew
flights--those can be shared between the government and the
commercial sector, and then that lowers the cost to the
government. That's what's implied by that infrastructure
discussion. So it's not a reduction in personnel. It's an
efficiency that's gained.
So at the Johnson Space Center, if some commercial
companies could come in and do operations in the facility or in
the center where they share some of the overhead of maintenance
and lighting and utilities, then that lowers costs for NASA. So
that was what the intent of that discussion was in the report.
Senator Cruz. How would you project that Mission Control at
JSC would be impacted?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. Again, we see Mission Control continuing
at JSC as we bring commercial crew online. Boeing has chosen to
operate CST-100 out of the Johnson Space Center. We also see
the Gateway activity that we do around the moon--that will be
operated out of the Johnson Space Center. So I see Mission
Control continuing into the future as we move human presence
into the solar system, carrying the traditional role that the
Johnson Space Center has carried in the past.
Senator Cruz. So as I mentioned in my opening statement,
NASA hasn't fared well in the past when decisions were made
prematurely in major programs, like Constellation and the Space
Shuttle. While there were a host of valid reasons for needing
to transition away from the Space Shuttle, the reality is the
program was phased out before an alternative was established.
This decision created a gap in capability for our National
Space Program and has made NASA reliant upon Russia to
transport American astronauts to and from the ISS.
As you can see from this first chart here, between 2006 and
2018, the price that NASA has paid the Russian government to
secure seats to transport American astronauts to and from the
ISS has increased from roughly $21 million to over $80 million,
a cost increase of 372 percent or a $60 million increase in
just 12 years.
As you can see from this second chart, the consequence of
having this gap in capability means that American taxpayers
will have sent roughly $567 million to the Russian government
to transport our astronauts to and from the ISS, which comes
out to roughly $3.5 billion between 2006 and 2018. And it's
also worth noting that commercial delivery systems cost will be
2.4 times more than the Space Shuttle.
What do you see as the consequences in terms of capability
lost if Federal funding is phased out for the ISS in 2025?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. Again, I think, you know, we have some
principles that we carry within human space flight, and one of
those principles is the continuity of human space flight. We
believe keeping a continuous presence in human space flight is
important and continuing to keep a leadership role in space
flight, and I think Station needs to have that leadership role.
What we're describing here with this activity is we think
now is the time to do the planning to make sure that we have a
good transition from the predominantly government-funded Space
Station we have today to where we have now commercial space
stations and other activities in low Earth orbit that we can
continue to use to keep our leadership role and to keep human
presence in space. So we're thinking more of a transition
rather than a stop and then a start. As you've shown through
your graphs in the plots here, it's not good when you stop and
then you start at some TBD point in space.
So what we're trying to do through this activity and
through the Transition Report is establish some principles,
which you can read in the report. We're trying to go out to
industry, ask industry what the government can do to help them
take a better role in low Earth orbit operations, and how we
can make an effective transition where the government doesn't
have to be the sole payer and U.S. industry can do new things
in innovative ways in space.
We've seen some positive examples of that with both
commercial crew and commercial cargo. I think there are some
real advantages of the private sector doing some things in
innovative and creative ways. I think we can do the same thing
in low Earth orbit. We need some time to do that. We would like
to begin that activity in earnest now, and then we can see how
that works through the period of time and then figure out when
the right time is to transition Station.
Senator Cruz. So, as you know, China has announced that it
intends to have its first permanent manned space station ready
for service in 2022. Do you have any concerns that China may be
putting itself in a position to fill a leadership vacuum in low
Earth orbit if it's the only country with an operational
station beyond 2025?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. I think we need to be aware of that
consideration and factor that into our planning as we go
forward.
Senator Cruz. Final question for Mr. Martin. Both the ISS
Transition Report and the President's budget request list 2025
as the date on which direct Federal support of the ISS will
end. Has your office looked into where that 2025 date
originated, and, if not, will you commit to examining that
question?
Mr. Martin. We have not looked into where the 2025--and,
respectfully, we will not look into--it's a policy issue by the
Administration. Unless there's some evidence of any nefarious
outside influence on that decision, it really is a policy
decision, much like the previous administration had decided to
focus on an asteroid retrieval mission as opposed to a lunar
return.
So, really, the Inspector General's Office--we look at--we
don't deal with policy. We're not management. We look at
programs once they've been decided on by the Congress and the
Administration, and then we find fault in those programs.
Senator Cruz. With all due respect, Mr. Martin, it is not a
policy decision when it is directly contrary to Federal statute
that has been enacted into law--the NASA Transition
Authorization Act of 2017--and I believe that date directly
contradicts statutory language that was passed unanimously by
both houses of Congress.
Senator Nelson.
Senator Nelson. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. This Senator has
been through a kabuki dance on the issue of OMB trying to
control NASA for years and years. It's a problem in both
Democrat and Republican administrations and here we go again.
Mr. Martin, I'm going to have most of my questions for you,
because Mr. Gerstenmaier is in a very difficult position, as he
has to mind the fact that there are those folks at OMB who
think they're running NASA, so he has to be careful about what
he says, even though he's one of the best NASA managers that
has ever come down the pipe.
But I do want to ask Mr. Gerstenmaier--and I think it will
make the point here--when Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and I
authored the NASA authorization bill of 2010 that set NASA off
on the dual course of a commercial industry of launchers as
well as NASA being able to get out beyond low Earth orbit and
explore and, thus, the course that we are now seeing come to
fruition with the launches of two commercial rockets carrying
crew within the next year and then the big rocket as the first
of the Mars program maybe in a couple of years, all of that set
the table so that it would be worthwhile for commercial
companies to come in and develop rockets and spacecraft in
order to get humans to and from the International Space
Station, which also would allow us to stop paying the Russians
all of those monies that we've paid over the years, even though
they've been a reliable partner.
So, given the fact that this was a business model for
SpaceX, for Boeing, and others to come, to go to and from low
Earth orbit, specifically the Space Station, what do you think
this is going to do to their business model if suddenly there's
not an International Space Station there?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. It's envisioned in the way we've seen the
legislation is that there would be potentially other commercial
platforms in low Earth orbit that could be serviced by both of
these companies, both by the cargo providers and also by the
crew transportation providers. So the idea was instead of
having a sole government space station, there would be a
government station, potentially other smaller commercial space
stations in low Earth orbit of which this industry, the supply
industry of transportation, would be able to service.
So that's the discussion we've had, and that's the thing
we're trying to pursue, to see if there's a market that
supports that and to put the details of how that works. And
we're going to ask industry and ask others through a series of
studies here fairly soon to give us their business plans, to
give us their understanding of what they see as the revenue
potential in low Earth orbit.
I think we're starting to see a real interest in low Earth
orbit from commercial companies, where there's just an inkling
that there could be some revenue generation there. That's a
starting point. That's a tipping point, and what we need to do
is we need to figure out a way we can help enable that through
the Commerce Department, through NASA, to get that vibrant
economy there, and then again we'll see this commercial sector
take activity in low Earth orbit. So we have to walk between
figuring out the right time for the government station to start
ramping down and the private station to start coming in place.
Senator Nelson. And you do not have any assurance that that
business model is still there to support their commercial
rockets. Is that correct?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. There's no absolute assurance that that
business model is there. But we can construct a transition plan
thoughtfully amongst all of us that can help lower the risk to
acceptable levels where it's a right risk for the private
sector and it's a right risk for the government to get the
capabilities we need in low Earth orbit.
Senator Nelson. Mr. Martin, what was it that you were
talking about--six of 20 human risks that requires research on
the ISS? Six of 20 human risks, you say, have been identified
on the Station.
Mr. Martin. Yes, sir. NASA has a very robust program to
look at--from their Human Research Program to look at what are
the key health and human performance risks that can be
detrimental to astronauts in long-duration space flight, and
they have a very colorful chart that maps out when they would
get these risks to a successful point where they could either
mitigate it or they've decided to accept the risks. And
according to NASA's own figures, six of the 20--the mitigation
activities and the research on those health and human
performance risks will not be completed by 2024.
Senator Nelson. Mr. Gerstenmaier, do you think that
substitutes, if they could be put up--commercial stations--by
2025 would be available? Do you think that's possible?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. I think it's possible for those items,
and what we need to do is make sure that those unique
facilities and capabilities are present in the commercial
activities, so we can actually make sure that they have the
ability to investigate those particular areas.
Senator Nelson. You know, right now, NASA is paying for the
transportation cost to and from the Station on commercial cargo
and soon to be American astronauts to go to and from. Do you
think that the commercial companies could pick up that burden
if NASA were to abandon the ISS?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. Again, I think, as we've all seen, one of
the largest costs for having a capability in low Earth orbit is
the transportation cost. So we need to watch that
transportation cost. Again, I think the model is if there's
revenue generation by the private sector, then they can pay for
some portion of that transportation cost--and what that
percentage is, I don't know, but we can work that out--and then
the government gets a reduced cost for the activities that the
government needs. So then the government pays for the services
it requires and what it needs.
So there's a transition phase so it doesn't go from full
government funding to no government funding. I think there
needs to be a transition phase, and that's what we've kind of
alluded to in the Transition Report of how we discover and how
we build that right transition model to make sure we don't lose
this capability that we've acquired with Space Station.
Senator Nelson. Not just the transportation cost, but the
$1.2 billion per year that Mr. Martin indicated just to keep
the Station alive. So commercial companies would have to pick
that up. You're talking about commercial companies suddenly
taking such a large bite of the financial pie. It's possible
they might choke on it, isn't it?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. Again, I think we have to be careful as
we think about the next platform in low Earth orbit. The Space
Station, as you described in your opening remarks, is amazing
in terms of size and complexity. These commercial stations
could be dramatically simpler and dramatically smaller, and,
potentially, the operating costs for those and some of the
transportation costs can be reduced some amount by having a
smaller capability.
We've seen some things now where the cargo providers are
doing an after-mission activity with their cargo vehicles. They
actually fly an extended mission after they're done delivering
cargo to Station. That could serve a function of a space
station to be crew tended, in a sense, not even in orbit for a
permanent amount of time and return.
So I think we have to open up our thinking about what that
new commercial station is and recognize that having a
commercial entity take on the full cost of ISS doesn't make
sense, but is there another model that still can give us the
capability we need for reduced costs in maybe a different
manner and innovative way of achieving it, and that's what we
want to start exploring with companies in the near term,
because at some point, Station will wear out. Station will no
longer be supportable. We're going to have to deorbit Station.
We want to make sure that event doesn't occur without us being
prepared to look at a transition to another activity in low
Earth orbit that can keep this continuous presence moving
forward.
Senator Nelson. Well, I would suggest, Mr. Gerstenmaier,
that I can speak on behalf of Senator Cruz and myself and say
that as you do all of this planning, you also ought to plan for
the alternative that the Station is going to stay alive until
2028 and even beyond. And as you look at your different
scenarios, I would recommend that you do that because this
Committee is going to require that.
Mr. Martin, does the ISS Transition Report adequately
consider the risk of ending the ISS program in 2025?
Mr. Martin. We don't believe, based on our work, that it
does, Senator.
Senator Nelson. What are your impressions of the Transition
Report and the manner in which it was influenced by the
Administration?
Mr. Martin. Senator, I can't speak to the latter part of
your question because we have no knowledge of the input that
OMB had or didn't have on the language. But looking at the
report--and, again, based on the OIG's work--the report is--
apart from describing a high-level framework and using words--
dropping words like ``robust economy in low Earth orbit''--we
think that a lot of the conclusions or observations are overly
optimistic in nature, particularly with the ability over the
next 6 years to generate a sufficient economy in low Earth
orbit to pull off this plan. So we have serious reservations
about it, sir.
Senator Nelson. Of the $3.5 billion that NASA spends on ISS
operations, transportation, and research each year, roughly $1
billion goes, as you have already indicated--$1.2 billion--to
operating and maintaining the Station itself. The ISS
Transition Report makes it clear that NASA will continue to
need access to low Earth orbit, even as we move to exploring
Mars.
The report says NASA is going to keep paying for research
and for transportation to low Earth orbit, yet it doesn't say
how transitioning to a privately-run Space Station or platform
will actually save money. If a commercial space station exists
by 2025, it won't be free.
How, Mr. Gerstenmaier, will using commercial platforms in
low Earth orbit save NASA money?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. Again, it has to come from the things we
described. There needs to be some ability for the commercial
sector to generate revenue in low Earth orbit on their own so
they have a revenue stream separate from the government, or
other government agencies contribute to the funding. That
lowers some of the cost, or the cost is shared now across a
community rather than just NASA paying for that cost. The other
way would be if we back off on some of the capability and we
have less functionality in low Earth orbit such that it costs
less to maintain that functionality in low Earth orbit.
Those would be two examples that we need to investigate and
see which ones of those have the potential of yielding the
benefit that we describe or we would like to try to get by
making this transition.
Senator Nelson. So, Mr. Martin, I ask you, based on the
work of the Office of Inspector General, is the commercial
industry ready to assume the cost of operating and maintaining
the ISS?
Mr. Martin. We don't believe so, and we think the--we had
some specific concerns with the Transition Report. If you look
on page 27, it talks about an STPI study that assesses the
economic viability of a commercial low Earth platform. Some of
the assumptions that this study uses are belied by the chart
that the Chairman just put up. The operating assumption in that
study was the cost of an astronaut transportation to low Earth
orbit was $20 million. Last time I looked, it was closer to $84
million per seat.
In addition, on page 29 of the Transition Report was an
interesting comment about venture capitalists that were
contacted by the study writers to assess the economic
viability. No venture capitalists that they spoke with for this
report would invest in a commercial platform in low Earth orbit
until there was much more clarity on revenue and costs.
Senator Nelson. On the basis of what you just said, if I
were trying a jury trial, I would say, ``Your Honor, the
plaintiff or the defense rests.''
Are there areas in which NASA could save cost under the
current ISS program?
Mr. Martin. Myself or Mr. Gerstenmaier?
Senator Nelson. You, Mr. Martin.
Mr. Martin. I'm sure there are, and they have--they've
consolidated contracts, they've moved from--to fixed price
contracts with its main contractor, Boeing. There are lots that
they've done over the past five, 10 years, and our hats are off
to the managers at NASA for that, and I'm sure that there are
additional efficiencies that they could identify in the coming
years.
Senator Nelson. And then there's the question of demand.
NASA's goal is to be one of many users of commercial space
stations. But right now, I don't see who those non-government
users are.
Mr. Gerstenmaier, do you expect--who would be the one that
would join NASA for LEO services on a commercial space station?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. Again, I think if we look at what's going
on on the Station today, we don't see a single user that's
going to come in and take a majority stake in the operations on
the Station or have a majority activity. But what we're
starting to see for the first time is we're starting to see a
variety of companies find benefits that they can gain by doing
research onboard the Station.
So the pharmaceutical companies, of which you're well
aware, have been doing research into various drugs on Station.
They've been using animal models and plant models to go look at
various drug efficiencies, and some of those are having very
interesting and positive benefits. The fact that the human
genome changes slightly in space is also very intriguing to
drug companies and other folks. There's some very novel new
treatments that may come out for disease that we face that are
coming that companies could gain revenue from.
We're also beginning to start to see some manufacturing
companies actually fabricate some material in space. There's
some fiber optic material that's being manufactured today that,
again, has the potential of being a better fiber conductor of
optical transmissions on the Earth.
So, again, I would say it's too early to say that there's
any one company, any one discipline, but there are a variety of
areas and disciplines that show promise. Our job, along with
Commerce and others, is to figure out ways that we can enable
that industry to continue to investigate and see through their
entrepreneurial and their innovative understanding that they
can generate a case to generate revenue, and then at that
point, they can start picking up some of the burden that we
carry in space. But, again, I think it's a slow step-wise
process.
Senator Nelson. Thank you for that comprehensive answer,
and, if you would, since you have just made the case for
extending the ISS, would you provide to the Committee examples
of all those things that are going on that you just referenced
for the Committee's perusal and probably the Committee's
wanting to talk about it? Because the general public doesn't
really understand some of the research that is quite dramatic,
as you said, on pharmaceuticals that is going on.
[The information referred to follows:]
Please see the attached slides for examples of entities involved in
the ISS National Laboratory and their research areas.
[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]
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Senator Nelson. Since we have a vote in progress, Mr.
Chairman, I think I'll stop right there. I thank the witnesses,
thank them for their expertise, and I think that the purpose of
this hearing has been accomplished.
Senator Cruz. Thank you, Senator Nelson.
We just heard the defense rest, and I will say my friend,
Senator Matlock, would receive a directed verdict if this were,
indeed, a courtroom.
Senator Nelson. If you were the judge, I'm sure.
[Laughter.]
Senator Cruz. I'm going to ask just a couple of very brief
questions, and we're going to wrap this hearing up.
Mr. Gerstenmaier, a minute ago, you were having a
discussion with Senator Nelson about pharmaceutical research.
If a billion dollar drug is created due to the research on the
ISS, what claim would NASA have to the intellectual property,
and what share, if any, of the revenue would NASA receive?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. Again, we can--that's a pretty detailed
answer that comes from that, and we can go look at that. We've
been trying to look at the advantages of providing--if a
company operates with NASA, typically, we own the intellectual
property rights if they participate and develop something in
our facilities. But if they put in the majority of the work,
all the innovation comes from their side, all the creativity
comes from their side, then they should rightfully have
ownership. So we've been trying to look at ways that we could
amend or clarify what our ownership of intellectual property
right is.
Typically, we have those rights. We typically don't ever
grab those rights from someone that does research, but we own
those rights. That's held some people back from doing research
on Station, because there's a significant amount of work that
these companies will have to invest to get that revenue.
They're going to have to not only make the discovery on
Station, but then they're going to have to take it through
maybe 10 years of Federal drug agency trials to actually get a
pharmaceutical that's on the market.
So they'll make a significant amount of investment in that
that is probably not appropriate for us to go capture some
revenue from that, because they've earned that through the
money they've put in place. So we'll work with that, and we'll
see how that looks. But I think, in general, we would like to
have them--if they put the revenue in, put the time in, put the
creativity in, that's their intellectual property that they
should be able to use.
[The information referred to follows:]
Answer: There are no special or different intellectual property
requirements specifically applicable to research on the ISS. Under the
current statutory and regulatory regime, commercial entities retain all
commercial rights in intellectual property created through use of the
ISS.
NASA does not have authority to accept or retain royalties (or
profit-share) for commercially-owned technologies even when those
technologies are developed using government support or assets.
Government agencies (including NASA) are only authorized to collect and
retain royalties (as a share of sales or profits) from private entities
only when the private entities are commercializing Government-owned
technologies pursuant to a technology transfer license. (See 35 USC 209
and 15 USC 3710c). Similarly, NASA is not authorized to seek or retain
a share of profits or revenue earned by a commercial entity through
making a commercial product on the ISS.
Senator Cruz. So does NASA have any agreements in place for
sharing revenue that could be utilized to lower ISS costs?
Mr. Gerstenmaier. Not in that direct revenue sharing sense,
no.
Senator Cruz. Well, I think that may be ripe for further
discussion, and I look forward to working with you on that.
Let me just say, finally, I want to thank all of the good
men and women that work at NASA, the incredible scientists, the
incredible leaders, astronauts, brave men and women that are
leading our country's space program. We are grateful for your
service. As Chairman of this Committee, I view it as a
responsibility that I take very seriously to stand up and fight
for you. I know Senator Nelson views that responsibility with
the same gravity. So I thank you both for your testimony.
The hearing record is going to remain open for two weeks.
During this time, senators are asked to submit any questions
for the record, and upon receipt, the witnesses are requested
to submit their written answers to the Committee as soon as
possible.
And with that, this hearing is adjourned.
[Whereupon, at 3:36 p.m., the hearing was adjourned.]
A P P E N D I X
Response to Written Questions Submitted by Hon. Bill Nelson to
William H. Gerstenmaier
Question 1. Please provide examples of the types of users on ISS
today that could eventually be paying customers of a commercial space
station? What types of activities are these users engaged in?
Answer. Please see the attached slides for examples of entities
involved in the International Space Station (ISS) National Laboratory
and their research areas.
Question 2. At the hearing you discussed the new Commercial LEO
Development program that is supposed to help NASA achieve its goal of
being one of many users of commercial space stations. The FY 2019
Budget provided very little information about this new program. Please
provide a summary and a timeline of the activities the program will
conduct.
Answer. The primary purpose of the Commercial low-Earth orbit (LEO)
Development program is to spur a vibrant, sustained U.S.-led,
commercial LEO human spaceflight marketplace where NASA is one of many
customers. The vision includes one or more privately-owned/operated
platforms--either human-tended or permanently-crewed--together with
transportation capabilities for crew and cargo that enable a variety of
activities in LEO, where those platforms and capabilities are sustained
to a greater degree than today by commercial revenue. These future
platforms may either leverage the ISS or be free-flying. NASA must also
communicate its forecasted needs in LEO to allow the private sector to
anticipate that demand in their business cases. With this vision, NASA
is able to share the cost of a LEO platform with other commercial,
Government, and international users. In the President's FY 2019 Budget
Request, the runout is as below:
FY 2019--$150M
FY 2020--$150M
FY 2021--$175M
FY 2022--$200M
FY 2023--$225M
To achieve the Commercial LEO Development program's goals, a first
activity will be to solicit inputs from industry on the development and
operations of private on-orbit modules and/or platforms and other
capabilities that NASA could eventually utilize to meet its long-term
LEO needs as one of many customers. NASA is laying the groundwork for
2019 by working with industry in 2018 (including an industry day May 1,
2018) and releasing small study contracts focused on understanding how
the commercial sector can be incentivized to support NASA's LEO needs.
Based on these initial inputs, NASA expects to then conduct a full and
open competition for public and privately funded module(s) and/or
platform(s) attached to the ISS or free-flying in LEO, or other
capabilities in FY 2019.
NASA also intends to use a portion of these funds to continue to
stimulate non-NASA demand for LEO activities that will be needed to
support private LEO platforms. For example, NASA has been investing--
and will continue to invest--in commercial on-orbit facilities and
integration costs for promising research leading to sustained non-NASA
use of LEO, such as on-orbit manufacturing. NASA has been covering
transportation costs, which allows a variety of companies to experiment
with different revenue-generating activities or demand for space-based
activities. In addition, industry studies funded by this program will
allow interested parties to specify what support they desire from NASA,
what commercial opportunities they are pursuing, and viability of
private industries' business cases. This could potentially include
options such as: (a) access to a port on ISS; (b) access to NASA's
experience and capabilities through its unique workforce with expertise
in the design, construction, launch, operations, and/or utilization of
orbital platforms; and (c) financial support provided through the
Commercial LEO Development program. As a companion activity to this
program, NASA will develop a policy that ensures that NASA or ISS
National Laboratory activities do not compete with the capabilities
provided by commercial LEO platforms. Ultimately, the commercial sector
must develop the demand market. NASA and the Department of Commerce can
create an environment that will allow commercial companies to develop
demand. The Agency will leverage best practices from other commercial
programs as applicable.
Question 3. The ISS Transition Report describes in qualitative
terms some of NASA's ongoing requirements in Low Earth Orbit. Does NASA
plan to quantify these requirements? How are they being communicated to
industry?
Answer. NASA's broad long-term LEO requirements are laid out in
Section 4.1 of the ISS Transition Report. NASA is currently working to
develop a more detailed forecast (including quantifying where possible)
of future LEO needs and will communicate this forecast to industry
through public forums. An initial forecast later this summer will
include specific types of facilities and capabilities that NASA will
need, such as volume and interfaces for continued on-orbit testing of
life support technologies, and research rack space. Further maturation
of these forecasts will define estimates of crew time, upmass, and
downmass. In order to ensure that private industry is prepared to
provide the services and capabilities that support NASA's needs in LEO,
NASA is proposing a step-wise transition of LEO human spaceflight
operations from a Government-directed activity to a model where private
industry is responsible for how to meet and execute NASA's
requirements, as well as the needs of commercial operators. In order to
effect a smooth transition, provide private industry with a vision of
the future work, and allow NASA to plan and alter its activities, NASA
is proposing that this transition of LEO human spaceflight
responsibility to private industry will be essentially complete by
2025. This will give NASA time to engage with industry to begin
transforming the many NASA-directed activities that are currently
performed through several contracts into more of a public-private
partnership and/or services contract(s) model where NASA's current
responsibilities are executed and managed by private industry. This
time period will also provide the opportunity for NASA and private
industry to engage with stakeholders and to only proceed when industry
has matured and is capable of executing NASA's requirements.
On May 17, 2018, NASA released a research announcement requesting
proposals to study the future of human spaceflight commercialization in
LEO. The research announcement solicits industry concepts detailing
business plans and viability for habitable platforms, whether using the
ISS or a separate free-flying structure, that would enable a space
economy in LEO in which NASA is one of many customers. NASA will
continue to have a need in LEO for regular crewed operations, long-term
technology development and demonstrations, space and life sciences
research, and opportunities for astrophysics, space, and Earth Science
research. Access to an orbital platform on which to conduct these
activities will be key as NASA and its commercial and international
partners prepare for crewed missions to the Moon and beyond. NASA
anticipates awarding multiple four-month, fixed priced contracts, not
to exceed $1M per award. Selection is expected to take place in July
with the final reports delivered to NASA in the December timeframe.
Through these studies, NASA is looking forward to learning how industry
plans to meet NASA's ongoing needs in LEO as well as develop non-NASA
demand.
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Response to Written Questions Submitted by Hon. Edward Markey to
William H. Gerstenmaier
Research Conducted on the ISS. Since 2005, the International Space
Station has been a platform on which our astronauts carry out
groundbreaking scientific research in low-Earth orbit. The ISS is the
only microgravity research platform of its kind. This research on
engineering, physical sciences, and biology, is absolutely necessary as
we look to exploring our Moon, Mars, and beyond. NASA has always held
that QUOTE, ``Failure is not an option.'' However, the Administration's
proposal to decommission the ISS in just seven years puts this pivotal
research in jeopardy and without it, failure is inevitable.
Question 1. Mr. Gerstenmaier, it was mentioned that six out of 20
human health risk assessments will not be completed by the
Administration's proposed decommission date of ISS in 2025. How can you
guarantee that these critical assessments and other scientific research
will continue uninterrupted in low-Earth orbit?
Answer. The Administration is not proposing to decommission the ISS
in seven years. The Administration is proposing to end direct Federal
funding of the ISS by 2025. Research that has not been completed by the
end of 2024 will be conducted on whatever platforms--whether they be
new commercial platforms or commercially-operated ISS elements--are
available in 2025. NASA wants to ensure there is no gap between ISS in
its present operating model and what follows it.
Question 2. Do you believe the private market and NASA will be able
to support this research, including a reliable platform, by the mid-
2020s?
Answer. Yes. NASA has been able to support this research already
even in the absence of a robust commercial market. NASA's Commercial
low-Earth orbit (LEO) Development effort will explore options for
conducting human LEO operations and research beyond 2025, and encourage
the development of viable commercial platforms and operations. In
support of this, on May 17, 2018, NASA released a research announcement
requesting proposals to study the future of human spaceflight
commercialization in LEO. The research announcement solicits industry
concepts detailing business plans and viability for habitable
platforms, whether using the ISS or a separate free-flying structure,
that would enable a space economy in LEO in which NASA is one of many
customers. NASA will continue to have a need in LEO for regular crewed
operations, long-term technology development and demonstrations, space
and life sciences research, and opportunities for astrophysics, space,
and Earth Science research. Access to an orbital platform on which to
conduct these activities will be key as NASA and its commercial and
international partners prepare for crewed missions to the Moon and
beyond.
Commercial Partnerships. Several of my Subcommittee colleagues and
I are working on bipartisan commercial space legislation and one of my
top priorities in this bill is to make it easier for smaller businesses
to partner with NASA for use of assets and facilities in order to build
up the commercial market. Mr. Gerstenmaier, in your testimony you state
that ``NASA's vision for low-Earth orbit is a sustained U.S. commercial
human spaceflight marketplace where NASA is one of many customers.''
Question 3. What do you think are the biggest challenges and
impediments facing small businesses in building working partnerships
with NASA?
Answer. Through Requests for Information (RFIs) and other
interactions since 2014, including workshops with external stakeholders
(most recently in August 2017), industry has identified the following
challenges and barriers to achieving the vision of a self-sustaining
marketplace in LEO:
Uncertainty Concerning Future Availability and Uses of ISS/
LEO Platforms;
Cost of Transportation/Access;
Government Acceptance of the Premise that Commerce has
Value;
Ability of Government Astronauts to Participate in
Commercial Activities;
Lack of Current Commercial Pricing Structure;
Flexibility in Contracting and Public/Private Partnership
Agreement Mechanisms; and
Recognition of Intellectual Property (IP) Rights;
Lack of a clear demand signal from Government; and
Threat of competition by the Government that would undercut
private investment.
Foreign competition.
Question 4. Do you think these challenges will be overcome in time
for the proposed decommissioning of ISS in the mid-2020s?
Answer. In order to achieve the vision of a self-sustaining
marketplace in LEO, NASA will work together with industry to overcome
these challenges. Some can be addressed through the development of an
ISS commercial use policy and pricing structure for ISS services. Cost
of transportation/access is expected to continue to be a significant
barrier, particularly for small businesses. By setting 2025 for the end
of direct Federal funding for ISS and releasing the RFP noted above,
the Agency has spurred the discussion with its about how best to
realize a commercial LEO environment and provided a time-frame for the
resolution of the challenges.
______
Response to Written Questions Submitted by Hon. Gary Peters to
William H. Gerstenmaier
ISS Funding Deadlines. I am concerned that setting an arbitrary
deadline for ending direct funding to ISS increases the risk that NASA
will lose access to low Earth orbit for a period of time. I propose
that it would be better to make a decision to end funding based on the
ability for commercial providers to meet NASA's needs in low Earth
orbit.
Question 1. What sort of capabilities will commercial providers
need to demonstrate in the near term to give us confidence that we are
on track toward healthy public-private partnerships in low Earth orbit?
Answer. On May 17, 2018, NASA released a research announcement
requesting proposals to study the future of human spaceflight
commercialization in low-Earth orbit (LEO). This commercial LEO NASA
Research Announcement is the next step in enabling a LEO space
marketplace. The announcement solicits industry concepts detailing
business plans and viability for habitable platforms, whether using the
International Space Station (ISS) or a separate free-flying structure
that would enable a space economy in LEO in which NASA is one of many
customers. Via this announcement, industry is tasked to identify ways
to stimulate demand for commercial LEO services with a goal to sustain
the space marketplace. Additionally, the announcement seeks industry
input about the role of Government and evolution of the ISS in the
process of transitioning U.S. human spaceflight activities to a non-
Governmental commercial human spaceflight enterprise in LEO.
NASA will continue to have a need in LEO for regular crewed
operations, long-term technology development and demonstrations, and
Earth, space and life sciences research. Access to an orbital platform
on which to conduct these activities will be key as NASA and its
commercial and international partners prepare for crewed missions to
the Moon and beyond.
Question 2. If we start planning to end funding by 2025, but it
becomes apparent before that deadline (for example in 2022) that this
will result in an interruption in access to low Earth orbit, would
costs of changing plans to ensure continued access to low Earth orbit
exceed currently planned costs in those years leading up to 2025?
Answer. The proposal to discontinue direct Federal funding to ISS
by 2025 represents a balance among the need to continue to conduct
exploration-related research in LEO to prepare for deep-space missions,
the recognition that the commercial sector is rapidly developing space
capabilities that can support the requirements of both Governmental and
non-Governmental customers, and the need for NASA to utilize the Moon
as a stepping-stone to eventual human missions to Mars. NASA is laying
the groundwork (e.g., the issuance of the RFP noted above) to ensure
that the Agency will be able to meet its LEO requirements after the end
of direct Federal funding to the ISS. The current budget leading up to
2025 does not preclude continued access to LEO beyond 2025 should no
alternate platforms become viable.
Commercializing Low Earth Orbit. The ISS Transition report includes
forecasts from STPI saying a commercial operator will lose a
significant amount of money under all but the rosiest of scenarios.
Question 3. What specific evidence can you cite that points toward
a robust market for low Earth orbit and likely commercial success?
Answer. While the commercial LEO market is still developing the ISS
National Lab, managed by the Center for the Advancement of Science In
Space (CASIS), has been a key enabler of the expanded commercial use of
LEO. Since 2011, more than 200 ISS National Laboratory research
projects have been flown to the ISS--ranging from developing new drug
therapies, to monitoring tropical cyclones, to improving equipment for
first-responders on the ground, to producing unique fiber-optics
materials. In the last several years, at least 50 percent of the ISS
National Lab projects were new-to-space customers, and more than 50
percent involve commercial users (i.e., for-profit companies). CASIS
has estimated a projected incremental revenue of more than $900 million
directly tied to National Laboratory projects to date.
The ISS National Lab is currently opening up the possibilities of
the Station research environment to a diverse range of researchers,
entrepreneurs, and innovators that could create entirely new markets in
space. These areas include, but are not limited to the following: drug
delivery systems; crop science; regenerative medicine; reaction
chemistry; materials science; fluid dynamics and transport phenomena;
on-orbit production and microgravity-enabled materials; protein crystal
growth (also known as macromolecular crystal growth); and, Earth
observation and remote sensing. These activities are part of a young
portfolio of non-NASA projects that are beginning to benefit from
increased access to the ISS as well as shorter timeframes from project
concept to implementation on the ISS. The ISS National Lab portfolio's
current positioning forecasts growth in the next ten years in areas
such as cell and gene therapy, 3D bio-printing scaffolds, and aerospace
projects using the LEO platform to raise technological readiness levels
of next-generation LEO and beyond infrastructure systems. Additionally
as discussed in question 1 above, the commercial LEO NASA Research
Announcement is the next step in enabling a LEO space marketplace.
As one example of a commercial use of ISS, NanoRacks' CubeSat
Deployer is a stackable, modular, ground loaded launch case which is
designed to meet the growing demand to deploy CubeSat format satellites
from ISS for a variety of customers. As of June 2018, over 600 payloads
have been launched to ISS via NanoRacks services for the U.S.
Government (including NASA), commercial entities, and a variety of
international space agencies and other organizations.
______
Response to Written Questions Submitted by Hon. Gary Peters to
Hon. Paul K. Martin
ISS Funding Deadlines. I am concerned that setting an arbitrary
deadline for ending direct funding to ISS increases the risk that NASA
will lose access to low Earth orbit for a period of time. I propose
that it would be better to make a decision to end funding based on the
ability for commercial providers to meet NASA's needs in low Earth
orbit.
Question 1. What indicators in the low Earth orbit market might
demonstrate that we are headed toward a robust commercial environment?
Answer. The most significant indicator that a robust commercial
environment exists in low Earth orbit is for commercial entities such
as Goodyear, Merck or Proctor and Gamble to make significant monetary
investments in low Earth orbit research and activity. Such an
environment would require expansion beyond the more traditional
investments in microgravity research and applications into broader
commercial activities such as space tourism, satellite servicing,
manufacturing of goods, and corporate research and development, all of
which have yet to materialize.
Question 2. If we start planning to end funding by 2025, but it
becomes apparent before that deadline (for example in 2022) that this
will result in an interruption in access to low Earth orbit, would
costs of changing plans to ensure continued access to low Earth orbit
exceed currently planned costs in those years leading up to 2025?
Answer. If NASA, for example, decides in 2022 to retain and extend
ISS operations beyond 2025, much of the added operations and
maintenance costs will be determined by the level of investment needed
to address aging systems and infrastructure issues as well as crew and
cargo transportation payments to supporting companies such as Boeing,
SpaceX and Sierra Nevada. Operations and maintenance costs are
currently scheduled to decrease to about $1.4 billion in the three
years prior to 2025 because NASA would not be making advance payments
for future repair parts or cargo and crew flights. Such payments to
contractors typically begin up to 36 months before a flight occurs. If
additional flights are scheduled, planned annual costs in the years
leading up to 2025 would increase to $3 to $4 billion or about half of
NASA's annual human space flight budget.
______
International Space Station Transition Report
pursuant to
Section 303(c)(2) of the NASA Transition Authorization Act of 2017
(P.L. 115-10)
March 30, 2018
Table of Contents
1.0 Introduction
2.0 Executive Summary
3.0 Transition
4.0 Major Elements of Transition
4.1 NASA's Long-Term LEO Requirements
4.2 Enabling the Development of a Commercial Market in LEO
4.3 Science and Technology Policy Institute Analysis
4.4 Utilizing the ISS to Enable Human Exploration of the Solar
System
4.5 Benefits to Humanity
4.6 Technical Evaluation of Extending ISS Through the 2020s
4.7 Cost Estimates of ISS extension
4.8 Community Input
5.0 Conclusion
Appendix--Excerpt from NASA Transition Authorization Act of 2017 (P.L.
115-10)
______
1.0: Introduction
This report responds to direction in the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration Transition Authorization Act of 2017 (P.L. 115-10,
hereafter ``the Act''), Section 303(c)(1), to submit to Congress a
report evaluating the International Space Station (ISS) as a platform
for research, deep space exploration, and low-Earth orbit (LEO)
spaceflight in partnership with its four foreign space agency partners,
and the commercial space sector (see Appendix for text of the reporting
requirement, excerpted from the Act).
The ISS represents an unparalleled capability in human spaceflight
that is increasing knowledge of engineering and physical sciences,
biology, the Earth, and the universe. This knowledge is benefiting life
here on Earth and enhancing the competitiveness of U.S. private
industry. The research and technology demonstrations onboard the ISS
are not only providing the basis for extending human presence beyond
the bounds of LEO and taking America's next steps into the proving
ground of cislunar space, but also advancing the competitiveness of
U.S. private industry. Building on the partnership of five space
agencies representing the 15 ISS Intergovernmental Agreement signatory
nations, over 101 countries and areas have utilized, or are currently
utilizing, the ISS. Astronauts have continuously lived aboard the ISS
for over 17 years. Approximately one-quarter of the U.S. population
today only knows a time when Americans have lived in space.
This report lays out NASA's activities and future plans for
operations, research, and development in LEO. ``Transition,'' (Section
3), as that term is used in Section 303 of the NASA Transition
Authorization Act of 2017, discusses the LEO capabilities that the ISS
currently provides the Nation, which include a sustained American
presence in LEO, sustained American global space leadership, the
continued development of a commercial space industry and a commercial
space marketplace, the continued development of deep space exploration
capabilities, and the continued return of research and development
benefits to humans on Earth. ``Transition'' also discusses what NASA
envisions the LEO landscape to look like in 2024 and beyond, as well as
the key issues that need to be considered when contemplating ISS end-
of-life and transition to other platforms. ``Major Elements of
Transition'' (Section 4) goes into detail on the LEO commercial
marketplace, the ISS's role in the expansion of humanity into deep
space, the benefits currently being returned to Earth from research on
ISS, and an evaluation of the technical and cost implications of
continuing to operate ISS through and beyond 2024. Section 5 provides a
Summary.
2.0: Executive Summary
The NASA Transition Authorization Act of 2017 (P.L. 115-10)
provided for an ISS Transition Report under section 303:
The Administrator, in coordination with the ISS management
entity (as defined in section 2 of the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration Transition Authorization Act of 2017), ISS
partners, the scientific user community, and the commercial
space sector, shall develop a plan to transition in a step-wise
approach from the current regime that relies heavily on NASA
sponsorship to a regime where NASA could be one of many
customers of a low-Earth orbit non-governmental human space
flight enterprise.
Uses of Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) Platforms
Preparing for Human Deep Space Missions
In order to prepare for human expeditions into deep space, the
Agency must first conduct breakthrough research and test the advanced
technology necessary to keep crews safe and productive on long-duration
space exploration missions. An on-orbit platform like the ISS is
necessary to mitigate 22 of the 33 human health risks in the portfolio
identified by NASA's Human Research Program in support of current and
future deep space missions. NASA is also using the ISS as a testbed to
fill critical gaps in technologies that will be needed for long-
duration deep space missions. For example, elements of the ISS life
support and other habitation systems will be evolved into the systems
that will be used for deep space exploration missions and undergo long-
duration testing. It is NASA's plan to first develop and demonstrate
many critical technology capabilities using the ISS (and potentially
other future platforms) as a permanently-crewed testbed prior to
deploying these capabilities beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO). This
approach is much more cost-effective and faster than conducting this
research in cislunar space because of the risks inherent in operating
so far from the Earth.
Global Leadership in Human Spaceflight
Consistent with the President's space policy directive, ``Lead an
innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and
international partners to enable human expansion across the solar
system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities'',
the strength of the international partnership created through the ISS
Program is a testament to U.S. leadership in space and to the aerospace
expertise of all the nations involved. It serves as an example of how
many countries can work together to design, build, operate, and
maintain large, complex human space assets. As we consider the future
of ISS and potential successors and prepare for human missions of
exploration into deep space, it is important to reflect on the critical
value of the proven partnership that has made the ISS possible, and to
consider how to build on these relationships as NASA proceeds into
cislunar space. The ISS partner agencies are looking for leadership in
human spaceflight and LEO from the U.S. Informally, all of the partner
agencies have indicated that they expect to continue cooperative
activities with NASA as long as NASA continues to maintain America's
commitment to the partnership.
Enabling a LEO Commercial Market
NASA's vision for LEO is a sustained U.S. commercial LEO human
space flight marketplace where NASA is one of many customers. The
vision includes one or more privately-owned/operated platforms--either
human-tended or permanently-crewed--and transportation capabilities for
crew and cargo, that enable a variety of activities in LEO, where those
platforms and capabilities are sustained primarily by commercial
revenue rather than relying on NASA and the U.S. Government as their
main source of revenue as is the case today with the ISS. NASA must
also communicate its forecasted needs in LEO to allow the private
sector to anticipate that demand in their business cases. With this
vision, NASA is able to share the cost of a LEO platform with other
commercial, Government, and international users. This allows NASA to
maximize its resources toward missions beyond LEO, while still having
the ability to utilize LEO for its ongoing needs as described in
Section 4.1.
In order to enable this vision, NASA is executing several public-
private partnerships centered around the ISS to foster the development
of customers for LEO capabilities, but also is maturing the supply
industry to be able to meet future demands. NASA is also initiating the
Commercial LEO Development program to further the development of
private on-orbit capabilities beyond what is available today through
the ISS.
The Commercial Resupply Services (CRS), the Commercial Crew
Program, and the ISS National Lab are key complementary enabling
activities to enable this vision. Under the CRS contracts, NASA's two
commercial cargo partners, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) and
Orbital ATK, have demonstrated not only the ability to provide cargo
deliveries to ISS, but also the flexibility to recover effectively from
mishaps. The addition of the Sierra Nevada Corporation as a third
commercial service provider will add significant on-orbit and return
capability. Both Orbital ATK and Sierra Nevada Corporation have begun
to investigate options to perform significant on-orbit operations after
their primary cargo mission is completed. These two providers are able
to provide an on-orbit research capability independent of ISS. NASA's
commercial crew partners, SpaceX and the Boeing Company, are developing
the Crew Dragon and CST-100 Starliner spacecraft, respectively. These
companies have made significant progress toward returning crew launches
to the U.S., and NASA anticipates having these capabilities in place by
2019 to regularly fly astronauts safely to and from ISS. The crew and
cargo vehicles, as well as the launch vehicles developed by these
providers, have the potential to support future commercial enterprises
as well as ISS.
The Center for the Advancement of Science In Space (CASIS) manages
the activities of the ISS National Laboratory to increase the
utilization of the ISS by other Federal entities and the private
sector. CASIS works to ensure that the Station's unique capabilities
are available to the broadest possible cross-section of U.S.
scientific, technological, and industrial communities. The ISS National
Laboratory is helping to establish and demonstrate the market for
research, technology demonstration, and other activities in LEO beyond
the requirements of NASA. Commercial implementation partners are now
bringing their own customers to the ISS through the National Lab as
well.
Benefitting Humanity
Across a range of disciplines and applications, research on a
crewed space platform ultimately benefits people on Earth. In the
physical and biological sciences arena, a LEO space platform can allow
researchers to use microgravity conditions to understand the effect of
the microgravity environment on microbial systems, fluid physics,
combustion science, and materials processing, as well as environmental
control and fire safety technologies. Technologies developed for use in
space, such as water purification technologies, can have applications
on Earth. Crewed platforms can also be the site of sensors that provide
data used to support activities such as disaster relief.
ISS Transition
ISS Transition Principles
There are several key principles to any strategy or decision to be
made regarding the ISS and the future of LEO and NASA's role as one of
many customers of services or capabilities that are provided by private
industry as part of a broader commercial market. The following
principles will ensure uninterrupted access to LEO capabilities to
enable NASA and the Nation's long-term interest in LEO and human
spaceflight exploration including supporting National security
objectives, such as a competitive industrial base and U.S. leadership:
Continuity among NASA's LEO, deep space exploration, and
development and research activities and missions toward
expanding human presence into the solar system;
Expanding U.S. human spaceflight leadership in LEO and deep
space exploration, including continuity of the relationship
with our current ISS international partners;
Increase platform options in LEO to enable more ISS
transition pathways, security through redundant capabilities,
and industrial capability that can support NASA's deep space
exploration needs;
Spur vibrant commercial activity in LEO;
Maintaining critical human spaceflight knowledge and
expertise within the Government in areas such as astronaut
health and performance, life support, safety, and critical
operational ground and crew experience;
Continuing to return benefits to humanity through
Government-sponsored basic and applied on-orbit research;
Continuing Government-sponsored access to LEO research
facilities that enable other Government agencies, academia, and
private industry to increase U.S. industrial competitiveness
and provide goods and services to U.S. citizens; and
Continuing to reduce the Government's long-term costs
through private industry partnerships and competitive
acquisition strategies.
ISS Transition Strategy
As part of a cohesive exploration strategy, NASA intends to begin
shifting responsibility for meeting its needs and requirements in LEO
by leveraging private industry capacity, innovation, and
competitiveness that would offer the prospect of lower cost to the
Government to enable NASA to apply more personnel and budget resources
on expanding human spaceflight beyond LEO and enhancing U.S. leadership
in human spaceflight around the world. Among the benefits beyond the
prospect of lower operational costs for a LEO platform, shifting focus
to industry can additionally reduce the infrastructure burden on NASA
has already been demonstrated at NASA facilities at Kennedy Space
Center, Johnson Space Center, Stennis Space Center, and the Michoud
Assembly Facility.
In order to ensure that private industry is prepared to provide the
services and capabilities that support NASA's needs in LEO, as outlined
in the key principles above, and to enable private industry to develop
markets and customers beyond the Government, NASA is proposing the
following approach:
1. Begin a step-wise transition of LEO human space flight operations
from a Government-directed activity to a model where private
industry is responsible for how to meet and execute NASA's
requirements. Consistent with the ISS Transition Principles,
this does not mean NASA is ``commercializing the ISS.''
Instead, NASA maintains leadership and governing
responsibilities as outlined in the Partnership agreements, and
continues to maintain the essential elements of human
spaceflight such as astronaut safety and the high-risk
exploration systems.
In order to effect a smooth transition, provide private industry
with a vision of the future work, and allow NASA to plan and
alter its activities, NASA is proposing that this transition
LEO human space flight responsibility to private industry be
essentially complete by 2025. This will give NASA time to
engage with industry to begin transforming the many NASA-
directed activities that are currently performed through
several contracts into more of a public-private partnership
and/or services contract(s) model where NASA's current
responsibilities are executed and managed by private industry.
This time period will also provide the opportunity for NASA and
private industry to engage with stakeholders and to only
proceed when industry has matured and is capable of executing
NASA's requirements. The transition of ISS will ensure that
there are private companies with the experience and expertise
to operate various types of platforms in LEO by the mid-2020s.
This transition to private industry must be done in a cost-
effective manner and not exceed current operational costs.
Consistent with the ISS Transition Principles, NASA will continue
discussions with the ISS International Partners to help shape
the long-term future of LEO.
2. Solicit information from industry on the development and
operations of private on-orbit modules and/or platforms and
other capabilities that NASA could utilize to meet its long-
term LEO requirements that are consistent with the ISS
Transition Principles. The scope of the solicitation may
include risk reduction development activities, or modules or
elements that could either be attached to the ISS or be free-
flying. The solicitation may also include private industry
conducted studies on the future of the ISS platform that may be
combined with private industry objectives in LEO.
NASA will begin with a solicitation in FY 2018 to gather broad
industry input on interest in meeting NASA's long-term needs
and objectives that should lead to multiple awards in FY 2019
funded out of the Commercial LEO Development program.
Throughout this approach, NASA will also be requesting market
analysis and business plans from private industry in order to gauge the
depth of possible commercial markets as they apply to industry's
ability to meet NASA's needs and requirements with a base where NASA is
only one of many customers. This approach is also dependent on NASA
identifying our long-term requirements for LEO, which are highlighted
in Section 4.1.
ISS Considerations and the Eventual Future of the ISS Platform
From a structural integrity analysis standpoint, the ISS platform
is expected to have significant structural life well beyond 2028 (based
on the current assessment period). Many of the ISS modules,
particularly the modules launched in the later years of ISS assembly,
are likely to have structural life well into the 2030s (see section
4.4). Although it is thus likely technically feasible to continue to
operate the ISS well beyond 2028, it is also necessary to consider the
costs of operating this complex facility as we have been doing
(approximately $1.1 billion per year for O&M in the outyears) as we
consider the future of the ISS platform.
NASA's international partners are likely to have different levels
of interest in continuing the ISS and in moving to new LEO programs.
There are common themes across the partnership, however, in considering
the future of ISS and exploration, such as:
Reducing operational costs;
Offering frequent visible national astronaut opportunities;
Continuation and continuity of research and technology
development activities;
Balancing LEO and exploration;
Maturation of commercial opportunities.
The eventual future of the ISS, whether it is transitioning the
operations of the ISS platform to private industry through the use of
public-private partnerships, augmenting it with privately developed
modules, combining portions of the ISS with a new private platform, or
beginning anew with a free-flying platform and de-orbiting the ISS,
will be evaluated using the ISS Transition Principles.
Fast Forwarding to the mid-2020s
Continuing with current policies, including the Commercial LEO
Development program, NASA can project what the LEO landscape may look
like in the mid-2020s. In predicting the LEO landscape, areas that have
a high degree of certainty include maintaining our strong global
leadership position with the continuation of the ISS through 2024,
validating commercial cargo and crew transportation costs, and
completing the majority of NASA exploration-related human and systems
research and demonstration. Other nations will have deployed their own
space station(s). Examples of areas that will have a lower degree of
certainty include whether or not private industry capabilities have
matured enough to satisfy NASA's needs and requirements, and whether or
not a viable commercial market has matured in LEO that is not dependent
on Government support. The Commercial LEO Development program, along
with expanded ISS public-private partnerships, is targeted to address
these uncertainties.
NASA's long-term LEO requirements
NASA and the U.S. have a long history of human spaceflight
leadership and LEO research and technology development that go all the
way back to the Mercury program through Gemini, Apollo, Skylab, the
Space Shuttle, and the ISS.
Regardless of the eventual fate of the ISS platform itself, NASA is
expecting to maintain U.S. leadership in LEO and human spaceflight
through lunar exploration and eventually to Mars consistent with the
ISS Transition Principles. Within that context, NASA is planning to
continue with the following LEO needs and objectives beyond the life of
ISS:
Maintaining the Partnership with our current ISS
international partners and possibly adding new international
and domestic participants;
Regular LEO crewed operations, including short and long
durations:
Enables operational space proficiency;
Shift from human health and performance
countermeasures development (the ISS portion of which is
expected to be complete by 2024) to validations of
integrated long-duration system, habitation, operations,
and crew isolation;
Long-term technology/systems development and demonstrations
(e.g., life support);
Space life and physical sciences basic and applied research
at current level and capabilities;
National Laboratory-based research and technology
development;
Opportunities for astrophysics, space, and Earth Science
research.
These long-term requirements, while similar to that of the current
ISS Program, could be met with various types of modules or platforms
that do not necessitate a vehicle (or vehicles) as complex as the ISS.
Many of the research activities could be conducted on shorter-duration
platforms, similar to the Shuttle, or even crew-tended platforms. These
requirements are expanded upon in Section 4.1.
Conclusion
NASA believes that this is a well-balanced approach where the
Agency's and other U.S. Government interests are protected and enhanced
while offering the prospect of lower cost to the Government and opening
new markets and new business models to the U.S. industrial base. This
approach will also lay the foundation where NASA could be one of many
customers in a LEO commercial marketplace and provides the basis for
determining the long term future of the ISS Platform and LEO along with
the ISS International Partners.
NASA looks forward to working with Congressional stakeholders along
with researchers, private industry, and our ISS International Partners
on the future of the ISS and LEO, to ensure that the U.S. maintains our
human spaceflight leadership in LEO while shifting Government resources
and focus towards expanding human presence into the solar system and
returning benefits to U.S. taxpayers.
3.0: Transition
On November 2, 2017, NASA marked 17 years of continuous United
States human presence in LEO onboard the ISS. The Station has enabled
the U.S. to solidify its global space and innovation leadership across
multiple capabilities and policy objectives. In determining where the
U.S. wants to position itself in the mid-2020s, there are several key
principles to any strategy or decision regarding the ISS and the future
of LEO and NASA's role as one of many customers of services or
capabilities that are provided by private industry as part of a broader
commercial market. Adhering to the following principles in considering
ISS transition will ensure uninterrupted access to LEO capabilities for
NASA and the Nation's long-term interests in LEO and human spaceflight
exploration. National interests include supporting national security
objectives of maintaining a competitive industrial base and U.S.
leadership.
Continuity between NASA's LEO, deep space exploration, and
development and research activities and missions to expand
human presence into the solar system;
Rationale: Continuity provides a key stabilizing factor in
Government and industry due to the multi-decadal nature of
spaceflight. Instability in policy and programmatics can result
in misdirected efforts and funding and decreased capability and
investment from Government, industry, and international
partners.
Expanding U.S. human spaceflight leadership in LEO and deep
space exploration, including continuity of the relationship
with our current ISS international partners;
Rationale: U.S. leadership in exploration and human spaceflight is
based on the foundation of the ISS international partnership
that has matured over 20 years. Expanding international
partnerships will ensure that the U.S. continues its global
leadership into the future.
Increase platform options in LEO to enable more ISS
transition pathways, security through redundant capabilities,
and industrial capability that can support NASA's deep space
exploration needs;
Rationale: Creating multiple dissimilar suppliers is a key element
of fostering a commercial market and is also one of the key
elements of securing the capabilities to needed to meet the
long-term needs of NASA and the U.S. in LEO.
Spur vibrant commercial activity in LEO;
Rationale: A vibrant commercial activity in LEO is essential to the
goal of NASA becoming one of many customers in LEO. It is also
key to lowering the cost of access to the Government and to
other customers.
Maintaining critical human spaceflight knowledge and
expertise within the Government in areas such as astronaut
health and performance, life support, safety, and critical
operational ground and crew experience;
Rationale: The knowledge and expertise to expand human missions
into deep space for long durations is required to be maintained
over many years as well as many programs and missions that are
inherently Government-led and -executed. This is due to the
unique NASA mission of expanding human presence into the solar
system.
Continuing to return benefits to humanity through
Government-sponsored basic and applied on-orbit research;
Rationale: Continuing NASA's portfolio in basic and applied
research is a natural extension of the knowledge and expertise
that the U.S. has developed in space over the past half
century.
Continuing Government-sponsored access to LEO research
facilities that enable other Government agencies, academia, and
private industry to increase U.S. industrial competitiveness
and provide goods and services to U.S. citizens;
Rationale: With the creation of the ISS National Lab in 2010, the
U.S. has taken the lead in enabling private industry and other
Government agencies (such as NIH and NSF) to conduct research
and technology development activities in LEO. These activities,
though in its beginning stages, are producing results that
could directly benefit the competitiveness of U.S. industry and
quality of life for U.S. taxpayers. Continuing the National Lab
and NASA's support will continue to be critical to the success
of private industry and other Government agencies' research
activities.
Continuing to reduce the Government's long-term costs
through private industry partnerships and competitive
acquisition strategies.
Rationale: As industry becomes more capable in executing NASA's
mission independently, NASA should leverage the competitiveness
and efficiencies of private industry to realize cost
reductions. Broad-based industry investments and capabilities
also enhance the industrial capacity security of the U.S. to
carry out not only NASA's missions but broader National goals.
Fast Forwarding to the mid-2020s
Continuing with current policies, NASA can project what the LEO
landscape in the mid-2020s may look like. Some areas that can be
projected with some confidence include:
Americans have maintained a continuous presence on the ISS
for over 24 years;
NASA continues to lead a strong international ISS
partnership;
Commercial crew transportation to the ISS is operational,
and has enabled the permanent addition of a 4th U.S. On-orbit
Segment (USOS) crew member;
Commercial cargo and crew transportation costs to ISS have
been validated over several years;
NASA is conducting human missions in cislunar space using a
deep space capability such as the Lunar Orbital Platform-
Gateway;
NASA has completed the majority of exploration-related human
research, life support, and other system demonstrations which
are ready for incorporation into missions beyond cislunar
space, including preparations for crewed orbital flights to
Mars;
Other nations are operating their own LEO space stations,
possibly in partnership with other nations (including some of
the ISS Partner nations), and potentially offering subsidized
services.
Some areas that can be projected with less certainty include:
How successful the Commercial LEO Development program has
been in reducing the barriers to alternative approaches to
support government and commercial LEO activities;
Whether or not private industry users, have built self-
sustaining business cases that include integration,
transportation, and execution of their research or technology
development for LEO capabilities;
Whether or not other Government organizations, like the
National Institutes of Health (NIH), have established long-term
requirements for conducting research in LEO and have allocated
funds to pay for overhead costs;
Whether or not independent commercial market activities in
LEO (e.g., tourism, activities supporting the satellite sector,
manufacturing products and services for use in space and on
Earth, research and development, and media advertising and
education) have been established;
Whether or not ISS is a hub of the growing space economy,
providing infrastructure services for a broad spectrum of
Government, commercial, and academic users and serving as one
of multiple consumers of LEO launch, on-orbit, and return
services;
Whether NASA has been able to reduce the cost of operating
the ISS.
ISS Transition Strategy
Given the above ISS Transition Principles and the projected state
of LEO in the mid-2020s, NASA intends to implement a transition
strategy that builds upon the strengths of the projected U.S. position
in LEO, and to mitigate the uncertainties. NASA intends to begin
shifting responsibility for meeting its needs and requirements in LEO
to the private sector by leveraging private industry capacity,
innovation, and competitiveness. This will offer the prospect of lower
cost to the Government to enable NASA to apply more personnel and
budget resources on expanding human spaceflight beyond LEO and
expanding U.S. leadership in human spaceflight around the world. Among
the benefits beyond the prospect of lower operational costs for a LEO
platform, shifting focus to industry can additionally reduce the
infrastructure burden on NASA as already demonstrated at NASA
facilities at KSC, JSC, Stennis, and MAF.
In order to ensure that private industry is prepared to provide the
services and capabilities that support NASA's needs in LEO, as outlined
in the key principles above, and to enable private industry to develop
markets and customers beyond the Government, NASA is proposing the
following approach:
1. Begin a step-wise transition of ISS operations from a Government-
directed activity to a model where private industry is
responsible for planning how to meet and execute NASA's
requirements. Consistent with the ISS Transition Principles,
this does not mean NASA is ``commercializing the ISS.''
Instead, NASA maintains leadership and governing
responsibilities as outlined in the Partnership agreements, and
continues to maintain the essential elements of human
spaceflight such as astronaut safety and the high-risk
exploration systems.
In order to incentivize private industry and to effect the
transformation of NASA's responsibilities, NASA is proposing
that this transition of ISS execution responsibility to private
industry be essentially complete by 2025. This will give NASA
time to engage with industry to begin transforming the many
NASA-directed activities that are currently performed through
several contracts into more of a public-private partnership
model where NASA's current responsibilities are executed and
managed by private industry. This time period will also provide
ample opportunity for NASA and private industry to engage with
stakeholders and to only proceed when industry has matured and
is capable of the responsibility to execute NASA's
requirements. The transition of ISS will ensure that there are
private companies with the experience and expertise to operate
platforms in LEO by the mid-2020s.
In FY 2018 NASA will begin to develop this strategy.
Also, in FY 2018 NASA intends to solicit inputs from private
industry regarding interest in planning and executing the day-
to-day ISS operations.
Consultations with the ISS partners and stakeholders are
essential to developing an implementation strategy that could
result in the day-to-day execution of the ISS being performed
by private industry by 2025.
Additionally, in support of enabling further development of
commercial market-driven activities onboard the ISS and its
commercial cargo and crew systems, NASA is developing a
commercial use policy for ISS resources including crew time,
up-and down-mass, and crew rotation opportunities. This policy
addresses private activities, such as tourism, private
professional astronauts, marketing, and advertising that are
outside the scope of the National Laboratory statutory
activities such as education and research activities, and where
there are legal, policy, regulatory or contractual gaps in
NASA's ability to participate in such activities, even only as
part of a transitional role to enable a LEO marketplace. A
draft of this policy will be provided to our International
Partners and also be made available for industry comment in FY
2018.
Consistent with the ISS Transition Principles, NASA will continue
discussions with the ISS International Partners to help shape
the future of the ISS platform and LEO after 2024.
2. Solicit information from industry on the development and
operations of private on-orbit modules and/or platforms and
other capabilities that NASA could utilize to meet its long-
term LEO requirements that are consistent with the ISS
Transition Principles. NASA will begin with a solicitation in
FY 2018 to gather broad input on industry interest in meeting
NASA's long-term needs and requirements that could lead to one
or more awards in FY 2019 funded by the Commercial LEO
Development program. The scope of the solicitation will include
modules or elements that could either be attached to the ISS or
be free-flying. The solicitation will offer funded and non-
funded opportunities as well as asking what Government services
or capabilities industry is interested in. The solicitation
will also request inputs on the relative merits of Government-
provided funds vs. no funding. The result of this solicitation
could result in NASA purchasing services and/or capabilities in
the mid-2020s.
Throughout this approach, NASA will also be requesting market
analysis and business plans from private industry in order to gauge the
depth of possible commercial markets as they apply to industry's
ability to meet NASA's and other customers' needs and objectives with a
base where NASA is only one of many customers. This approach is also
dependent on NASA identifying our long-term requirements for LEO; which
are highlighted in Section 4.1.
Additional Transition Activities
There are additional activities that NASA plans to execute in the
near future that expand the enabling of a LEO commercial market, enable
increased international cooperation beyond the current Partnership
activities, help define a broader Government role in the development of
a commercial market in LEO, and expand the role of other Government
agencies in utilizing the ISS and other platforms in their research and
development activities. Some of the activities include:
Enabling a LEO Commercial Market
Allowing private industry use of ISS resources and crew and
cargo transportation for commercial for-profit activities -
Offering on a competitive basis spare ISS resources, including
crew time, commercial crew seats on NASA missions, cargo
transportation, and other resources for commercial for-profit
activities. NASA is currently developing a commercial use
policy for ISS resources including crew time, up-and down-mass,
and crew rotation opportunities. This policy will address
private activities that are outside the scope of the National
Laboratory statutory activities such as educational and
research activities. A draft of this policy will be provided
for industry comment following consultation with
intergovernmental stakeholders and ISS International Partners.
Global Leadership
Offering targeted crew opportunities to foreign nationals -
Based on broader national foreign policy objectives, invite
targeted non-ISS Partner countries to join ISS missions in LEO
on a one-time basis or long-term strategic basis. In accordance
with the IGA and MOUs, NASA could offer existing seat
opportunities aboard commercial crew transportation vehicles
already on contract with NASA or expand the ISS crew for short
durations. NASA would work to ensure that any such activities
do not undercut any U.S. commercially-offered services.
Offering targeted research and utilization opportunities to
foreign countries beyond the ISS Partners - In accordance with
the IGA and MOUs, NASA could offer additional opportunities to
targeted non-ISS Partner countries that would benefit U.S.
strategic scientific and technology leadership in many
disciplines. These opportunities could be realized on the ISS
or on new commercial platforms.
Building on the existing ISS partnership as a stepping stone
to human space flight activities beyond LEO - Under strong U.S.
leadership, the resiliency of the international partnership,
involving the harmonization and effective integration of over a
dozen different political systems, budgetary mechanisms, and
cultural, management, and industrial approaches, has laid the
foundation for exploring beyond LEO. It demonstrates every day
how numerous countries can work together to design, build,
safely operate, and maintain large, complex space systems. As
we consider the future of ISS and prepare for human missions of
exploration into deep space, it is important to reflect on the
critical value of the proven partnership that has made the ISS
possible, and to consider how to build on these relationships.
The ISS partner agencies depend on the U.S. to lead in human
spaceflight, both in LEO and beyond.
Government Role in the Development of a LEO Commercial Market
With the objective of a sustained U.S. commercial LEO marketplace
where NASA is one of many customers, NASA is executing a broad effort
to address the policy and regulatory environment, development of
capable private industry suppliers, and development of a demand for LEO
services across broad areas of the economy. A main part of this effort
will be successful execution of Commercial LEO Development program
activities with private industry, which will focus on enabling,
developing, and deploying commercial orbital platforms. This effort is
expanded upon in Section 4.1. Working across Government agencies is
among the efforts that NASA is pursuing.
Participate in a multi-agency working group among NASA, the
Department of Transportation, and the Department of Commerce,
and others to identify specific actions or legislation that
would further the development of a commercial market in LEO -
The development of a commercial market has not been a
traditional NASA policy objective. Though NASA for many years
has supported the National aerospace industrial base, it is not
well-equipped in the policy and regulatory fields that are the
responsibility of other Government agencies. As the development
of a commercial market in LEO is a long-term national goal,
NASA recommends that a multi-agency working group be formed to
address the policy, rules and regulations, and legislative
actions that would be necessary to enable a market in LEO.
Participation in such a multi-agency activity has also been
endorsed by the National Space Council in March 2018:
At the request of the Vice President, the Acting Administrator
of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Robert
Lightfoot agreed to work with the Secretaries of State,
Commerce, and other interested members to develop a strategy
for how we can further enable cooperation with our
international and private industry partners to continue to
develop the infrastructure and policies necessary to spur
economic growth in space. This strategy will be reported out at
the fall council meeting.
Expanding the Role of Government Agencies in LEO Research and
Utilization
Initiate a government wide policy to access research needs
for LEO platforms like the ISS across agencies such as NSF,
NIH, NIST and others. The assessment could be conducted in
cooperation with the National Academies as NASA currently does
- LEO platforms like ISS offer unique on-orbit science and
technology development capabilities that can benefit
Government-wide research beyond the NASA mission.
The National Lab, through CASIS, is working with other Government
agencies to conduct research onboard the ISS that is based on
limited objectives. Several of their experiments are already
onboard the ISS, and more are planned. However, if the Nation
is intent on funding the capability to perform research in LEO
for many years to come, it would be prudent to initiate a
broader Government activity to establish long-term Government
research that would benefit the Nation.
ISS Considerations and the Eventual Future of the ISS Platform
Clarity regarding plans for the ISS and exploration would be
beneficial for NASA's ISS International Partners as well. There are
common themes across the partnership in considering the future of ISS
and exploration, such as:
Reducing operational costs;
Offering frequent visible national astronaut opportunities;
Continuation and continuity of research and technology
development activities;
Balancing LEO and exploration;
Maturation of commercial opportunities.
The eventual future of the ISS, whether it is transitioning the
operations of the ISS platform to private industry, augmenting it with
privately developed modules, combining portions of the ISS with a new
private platform, or deploying a new free-flying platform and de-
orbiting the ISS, should be evaluated against such considerations as:
Whether alternative platforms for conducting necessary NASA
research and technology development are available;
The cost of continuing ISS and the cost of enabling the
development of new capabilities that could meet NASA's long-
term LEO needs and the needs of others;
The interest among NASA's International Partners to extend,
change, or terminate the existing ISS Partnership;
NASA's strategic human spaceflight leadership;
The potential for different management approaches for the
ISS to reduce its operating costs;
Changes to the current assessment of the technical
feasibility of extending the platform beyond 2024;
The demand outside of NASA in private industry and other
Government agencies for LEO research and technology development
capabilities;
The amount of time required for ISS maintenance vs. research
time; and
The ability to add additional international participants,
including distributing costs among a wider base.
From a structural integrity analysis standpoint, the ISS platform
has significant structural life well beyond 2028 (based on the current
assessment period). Many of the ISS modules, particularly the modules
launched in the later years of ISS assembly, are likely to have
structural life well into the 2030s (see section 4.4).
These considerations should also be taken into account within the
broader national policy questions concerning the importance of an
ongoing U.S. human presence in LEO, the foreign policy value of
international collaboration in space exploration, and the role of the
U.S. Government in that ongoing presence.
NASA believes that with the transition approach and near-term
activities outlined here, the U.S. will be well positioned in the mid-
2020s to continue to be the global leader in human spaceflight, space
research and technology development, and will continue to expand
commercial markets that directly benefits the U.S.
This approach will put in place the necessary private industry and
Government capabilities and activities that will allow for the ISS
Transition Principles to be continued to be met through a smooth and
uninterrupted process and to facilitate a graceful and predictable
logical end to the ISS on-orbit platform in the future.
4.0: Major Elements of Transition
The following sections highlight several of the major elements of
ISS Transition that shape current ISS operations and utilization, as
well as the ISS Partnership, and the future of the ISS and LEO.
4.1: NASA's Long-Term LEO Requirements
Consistent with the ISS Transition Principles, NASA's exploration
strategy and the U.S. Government's obligation under the International
Partner agreements, NASA has developed the following long-term LEO
requirements that are meant to be part of a broader commercial market
in LEO where NASA is one of many customers.
Expanding our International Partnerships
With the expectation that NASA will leverage the ISS International
Partnerships to expand the U.S. leadership in space from LEO to the
Moon and eventually to Mars, it is vital that NASA continue to meet
U.S. obligations under the ISS agreements. Additionally, given the
expected geopolitical environment in LEO in the mid-2020s, and to
expand the U.S. leadership position beyond the current ISS
International Partners, NASA intends to support relationships with
other space agencies and/or nations that share NASA's goals in LEO and
exploration.
Regular LEO Crewed Operations, Including Short and Long Durations
It will remain vital to NASA's mission of exploration and discovery
to continue regular crew rotations and operations in LEO. The demands
and risks associated with deep space travel will require seasoned and
experienced crews who are proficient in the rigors of human spaceflight
as well as the operational experience of critical dynamic flight
operations such as launches, vehicle proximity operations, docking, and
extra-vehicular activity. LEO provides the only cost-effective and
viable environment to gain the experience necessary to send crews into
deep space.
Additionally, NASA crews can be available to conduct research
activities that are consistent with their exploration mission. It is
expected that research could also be conducted by private or other
Government agency professional astronauts in the future.
Human Health and Habitation System Integrated Performance and
Validation
Human health and performance risks during spaceflight derive from
five primary stressors: Altered Gravity, Hostile/Closed Environment,
Isolation and Confinement, Radiation, and Distance From Earth. The
impacts of these individual stressors on health and performance vary
with both mission and vehicle design.
Many years of health and performance monitoring coupled with
dedicated research facilities and crew participation in LEO research
experiments, especially aboard the Space Shuttle, Mir Station, and more
recently ISS, have significantly improved our understanding of and
ability to mitigate the risks associated with Altered Gravity and
Hostile/Closed Environment.
As currently planned onboard the ISS, NASA expects to conclude its
Altered Gravity and Hostile/Closed Environment research and
countermeasures development by 2024. In addition, NASA also expects to
complete its long-duration habitation system/technology demonstrations
by 2024 onboard the ISS including the life support system,
environmental monitoring, and other systems.
The other three individual stressors, Isolation and Confinement,
Radiation, and Distance From Earth, will be very different from our
current experience on ISS than during exploration missions, especially
those beyond the Earth-Moon system. Combining the elements of
spacecraft design and life support systems, with the expected time
delay in communications on deep space missions, along with isolation
and confinement of an actual on-orbit flight simulation is an essential
element for validating countermeasures and integrated system/vehicle
performance during long-duration deep space missions. Ideally, these
simulations of up to a year in length would be conducted in deep space
to also include the effects of radiation as well. However, it may be
prudent from an access and overall integrated LEO and exploration
strategy to begin these simulations in LEO where access is more readily
available. These simulations can also be combined with other NASA
requirements as described in this section.
Long-Term Technology/System Development and Demonstrations
In order to continue to be able to operate long-duration deep space
systems that are reliable and functional on missions of one-to-three
years in duration, NASA will require that the technology and systems
that support human health and performance are ``life'' tested and have
the ability to evolve in a real-life test bed environment. This testbed
environment is ideally suited for LEO and longer-duration crew
rotations. The human-related systems such as life support and
environmental monitoring will always remain critical to the NASA
exploration mission as it is key to human spaceflight.
Space Life and Physical Sciences Basic and Applied Research at Current
Levels and Capabilities
NASA will continue to require access to a LEO platform to enable
exploration and to pioneer scientific discovery for and with other
Government agencies, commercial companies, and international partners.
NASA will continue to focus research in the highest value areas as
guided by the National Academy of Sciences' Decadal Survey and NASA
exploration program needs. These areas include research in plant and
microbial biology, animal and human biology, fundamental physics
research, cryogenics and heat transfer, combustion research, and
applied materials research, among others.
The knowledge gained and the researchers trained through this
effort will help develop the future commercial workforce and be the
foundation of future generations of space technologies, as NASA expands
human presence in space and uses this understanding of the behavior of
biological and physical systems in space to expand human capabilities.
National Laboratory-Based Research and Technology Development
Just as other national laboratories, such as those run by the
Department of Energy, have provided ongoing essential science and
technology research assets to the nation, an ongoing microgravity
national laboratory capability is needed for use by other Government
agencies and academia. Some specific examples are:
The Department of Defense programmatic expansion of life
sciences research, development for Regenerative Medicine and
Living Foundries, and activities to advance technology
readiness levels for advanced materials, advanced
manufacturing, and laser communication initiatives.
The National Institutes of Health biomedical research
focused on human physiology and disease such as recently-
sponsored ``tissue chips'' (or ``organs-on-chips''), that will
help scientists develop and advance novel technologies to
improve human health. Additional discussions with other NIH
institutes and centers include the National Cancer Institute
(NCI), the National Institute of Aging (NIA), the National
Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases
(NIAMS), and the National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and
Bioengineering (NIBIB).
The National Science Foundation's research in the physical
sciences and biomedical systems.
These and other Government agencies, as well as academic
institutions, have broadened their engagement in microgravity research
and applications, and are expected to have continued needs for a LEO
research platform going forward.
Opportunities for Astrophysics, Space, and Earth Science Research.
The infrastructure for maintaining human presence in LEO for longer
durations is well-suited to accommodating some investigations in the
fields of astrophysics, space and Earth sciences. The power, heat
rejection, communication, and scale of platforms that can accommodate
humans can also accommodate exterior payloads with compatible
requirements, given appropriate forethought in attachment sites and
available payload services such as power and communication. This
approach has been used now for several years onboard the ISS. This
approach is also being applied to the Gateway in cislunar space.
Conclusion
In this post-2025 timeframe, these long-term requirements, while
similar to that of the current ISS Program, could be met with various
types of modules or platforms that do not necessitate a vehicle (or
vehicles) as complex as the ISS. Many of the research activities could
be conducted on shorter-duration platforms, similar to the Shuttle, or
even crew-tended platforms.
4.2: Enabling the Development of a Commercial Market in LEO
NASA's vision for LEO is a sustained U.S. commercial LEO human
space flight marketplace where NASA is one of many customers. The
vision includes one or more privately-owned/operated platforms--either
human-tended or permanently-crewed--and transportation capabilities for
crew and cargo, that enable a variety of activities in LEO, where those
platforms and capabilities are sustained primarily by commercial
revenue rather than relying on NASA and the U.S. Government as their
main source of revenue as is the case today with the ISS. NASA must
also communicate its forecasted needs in LEO to allow the private
sector to anticipate that demand in their business cases. With this
vision, NASA is able to share the cost of a LEO platform with other
commercial, Government, and international users. This allows NASA to
maximize its resources toward missions beyond LEO, while still having
the ability to utilize LEO for its ongoing needs as described in
Section 4.1.
Since 2014, NASA has identified specific goals and initiated key
activities to help enable the vision for a sustained LEO human space
flight marketplace. This plan has evolved as the landscape has changed,
informed by the challenges and progress highlighted above.
[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]
Initiatives are organized into three main goal areas--policy,
enabling commercial supply, and enabling demand.
Policy and Regulatory Environment
NASA will continue to support the National Space Council's
commercial space cross-agency planning. Although other Government
agencies are utilizing the ISS National Lab to an increasing extent,
NASA would like to facilitate a multi-agency decadal planning
initiative for LEO research to further support future LEO platforms
from Government users besides NASA. NASA will continue to assess
marketplace needs to help facilitate the ability of companies to
conduct business. Executing the transition planning for the ISS, along
with instituting new commercial activities on the ISS, is important to
provide expanded opportunities and certainty for companies proposing
new commercial activities.
Self-Sustaining Supply of Commercial LEO Services
The development of a healthy commercial supplier base for LEO
activities is critical to NASA's plans. Today, the ISS is already
enabling commercial cargo and crew transportation that industry is
working to make more cost-effective in the future. Through initiatives
such as the Research, Engineering, and Mission Integrated Services
(REMIS) contract, NASA is transitioning from historically NASA-provided
services for tasks such as payload integration to purchasing those
services from a wide variety of commercial suppliers (see Section 4.2.1
for more on REMIS). NASA intends to continue to expand these types of
commercial interactions, utilizing more commercial acquisition
strategies, and enabling greater commercial use of ISS by offering its
unique capabilities while providing Earth-similar laboratory
capabilities that ultimately can be transitioned to other platforms. As
a first step in enabling Earth-similar laboratory capabilities on ISS,
NASA has provided state-of-the-art, real-time analytical capabilities,
such as quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (qPCR), utilized
standard laboratory processing techniques, and enabled the crew to
operate as partners through real-time space-to-ground discussions with
the researchers. NASA and CASIS have identified a candidate list of
additional hardware and data capabilities including:
Automated cell-culture hardware with commercial off-the-
shelf microfluidic systems;
Cell-culture hardware with embedded sensors capable of
providing information on cell physiology and health status,
metabolic flux, or electrophysiological output;
Expanded capabilities for rodent research;
Expanded capabilities for additive manufacturing, tissue
engineering, and biofabrication;
CubeLab capabilities, including heating and accommodation of
chemical reactions;
Multi-material 3D printing facility, dedicated metal casting
facility, and computer-controlled milling capability;
Self-contained, plug-and-play, remotely-operated printed
circuit board and electronics facility enabling in-space
manufacturing of conductive materials, biologic material,
functional electronic components, sensors, and circuits.
The final initiative in the supply category is to facilitate new
commercial LEO platforms and services and transition NASA's needs in
LEO to those services once available. In 2016, NASA issued an RFI and
received interest in utilizing available ISS ports and other unique
capabilities for commercial activities from multiple companies. Since
then, the Agency has been assessing the policy, programmatic, and
technical impacts of implementing a commercial module on the ISS.
Currently, NASA is planning to solicit input from industry for
capabilities and services in LEO that could meet NASA's needs as one of
many customers. This could include a module on the ISS, free-flyers, or
other related capabilities.
Demand from Broad Sectors of the Economy
The final and most critical goal area relates to the development of
commercial markets and demand for LEO activities beyond the more
``traditional'' microgravity research and applications, into broad
sectors of the economy. Unless this demand is expanded, future private
LEO platforms will likely not be viable without significant ongoing
Government support. It is necessary to maximize the value and impact of
the ISS today to allow users to explore new microgravity applications
and test markets, and communicate those success stories to stimulate
broader interest in LEO from non-traditional space users. Finally, NASA
must communicate its forecasted future needs for LEO (described in
Section 4.1) so that private companies can incorporate expected NASA
demand into their business cases.
4.2.1: The Current LEO Environment
The following section will examine: (1) the current commercial LEO
landscape; (2) the challenges and barriers to enabling greater
commercial utilization and markets in LEO; (3) the potential commercial
LEO markets; and (4) the Commercial LEO Development program.
(1) The Current Commercial LEO Environment
Today, NASA is supporting the development of a commercial space
economy in LEO through public-private partnerships to include
contracts, and other agreements centered around the ISS platform. Total
launches to the ISS equate to 14 percent of the worldwide commercial
launch market, with NASA's commercial cargo launches representing 5
percent of total launches.\1\ NASA's commercial crew partners, SpaceX
and Boeing, have made significant progress toward returning crew
launches to the United States by 2019. NASA's commercial cargo
partners, Orbital ATK and SpaceX, continue to provide reliable and
increasingly timely cargo deliveries to ISS, and the Sierra Nevada
Corporation has been added to the fleet under the Commercial Resupply
Services-2 (CRS-2) contract. Some of these launch vehicles are now
being used for non-NASA customers, and the crew and cargo spacecraft
have the potential to support future commercial enterprises as well.
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\1\ FAA Commercial Space Transportation Forecast, https://
www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/reports_studies/
forecasts/
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When NASA initiated the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services
(COTS) effort, the Agency was in need of U.S. cargo transportation
systems for the ISS and the United States had lost almost all of the
global market for commercial launch services. COTS successfully
addressed both of these issues. NASA is currently purchasing commercial
cargo transportation services to and from the ISS and NASA's commercial
partners' cost-competitive launch systems have allowed the United
States to regain global commercial launch leadership. Since 2005, the
year NASA began working with its partners, the U.S. share of the
commercial launch market has grown from 9 percent in 2006 to 52 percent
in 2016 and continues to increase today. Enabling commercial cargo and
payload launch services development through the public-private COTS
partnership and the CRS contracts proved to be a benefit to NASA, with
both companies--Orbital ATK and SpaceX--financing the majority of their
development costs. During the COTS partnership, NASA contributed $396
million toward development of SpaceX's commercial cargo transportation
systems (Dragon spacecraft and Falcon rocket), while SpaceX estimates
contributing approximately $450 million. Likewise, NASA contributed
$288 million towards the development of Orbital ATK's (then Orbital
Sciences) system (Cygnus spacecraft and Antares rocket), while Orbital
ATK estimates their company contribution to be approximately $500
million. The COTS effort proved to be cost effective for NASA when
compared to traditional development approaches. NASA compared SpaceX's
Falcon 9 launch vehicle development costs using the estimated costs of
a traditional cost-reimbursement contract versus the COTS milestone-
based effort. NASA's models predicted that Falcon 9 development would
cost the Government multiple times more using a cost-reimbursement
acquisition. SpaceX has indicated that their Falcon 9 development costs
were approximately $300 million.
In addition to the cargo and crew transportation initiatives, NASA
is leveraging the ISS to enable other commercial capabilities. As the
demand for space research and development projects increases, numerous
commercial companies are developing, operating, and maintaining their
own commercial payload facilities on the ISS. These organizations
operate their facilities internally and externally on Station and
provide users with more choices to address unique research needs; they
are the pathfinders for a marketplace in LEO. Many of these
organizations have used their own resources to invest in on-orbit
research and development facilities, reducing the risk for the Federal
sector to develop these facilities and services. These companies find
customers through CASIS and their own business development efforts to
enable the research and development for customers CASIS has developed.
When these companies are able to provide capabilities that meet NASA
needs, the Agency may contract with them as one of potentially many
customers utilizing their unique services. Currently, a number of
companies are providing services on-orbit, including BioServe, Made In
Space, NanoRacks, Space Tango, TechShot, and Teledyne Brown
Engineering.
Through the ISS Research, Engineering, Mission and Integration
Services (REMIS) contract, NASA has begun to transition from a model
where NASA provides its own payload integration, engineering
development, and sustaining services to one where those services can be
purchased from one of many commercial providers through a competitive
process. This contract was developed to allow companies to slowly take
over historically governmental functions in a step-wise manner using
their commercial approaches to doing business. By allowing industry to
take over these functions, companies will develop more efficient
approaches that will be cheaper and further reduce the costs of doing
business in space.
The ISS National Lab, managed by CASIS, has been a key enabler of
the expanded commercial use of LEO. Since 2011, more than 200 ISS
National Laboratory research projects have been flown to the ISS--
ranging from developing new drug therapies, to monitoring tropical
cyclones, to improving equipment for first-responders on the ground, to
producing unique fiber-optics materials. In the last several years, at
least 50 percent of the ISS National Lab projects were new-to-space
customers, and more than 50 percent involve commercial users (i.e.,
for-profit companies). The ISS National Lab is currently opening up the
possibilities of the Station research environment to a diverse range of
researchers, entrepreneurs, and innovators that could create entirely
new markets in space. These areas include, but are not limited to, drug
delivery systems, crop science, regenerative medicine, reaction
chemistry, materials science, fluid dynamics and transport phenomena,
on-orbit production and microgravity-enabled materials, protein crystal
growth (also known as macromolecular crystal growth), Earth
observation, and remote sensing. These activities are part of a young
portfolio of non-NASA projects that are beginning to benefit from
increased access to the ISS as well as shorter timeframes from project
concept to implementation on the ISS. The ISS National Lab portfolio's
current positioning forecasts growth in the next ten years in areas
such as cell and gene therapy, 3D bio-printing scaffolds, and aerospace
projects using the LEO platform to raise technological readiness levels
of next-generation LEO and beyond infrastructure systems.
CASIS has developed a successful sponsored-program model that
attracts third-party funding from private industry and other Government
agencies to solve significant problems or address target challenges.
Successful sponsored programs include those by Boeing/Mass Challenge,
Massachusetts Life Sciences Center, NSF fluid dynamics and combustion,
and NIH's National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS)
Tissue Chips in Space program. The significance of this model is the
shift from 100 percent NASA-funded projects to an ability to attract
third-party funding. Time is needed for the private sector to develop
and grow new markets and opportunities in LEO using the ISS and to be
willing to invest greater amounts of capital into such efforts.
These initiatives represent great progress toward enabling a
commercial space economy around LEO; however, today the non-NASA market
demand is not able to offset the costs without significant Government
support. The next sections will discuss the ongoing challenges and
projected commercial market landscape.
(2) Challenges
Through Requests for Information (RFIs) and other interactions
since 2014, including workshops with external stakeholders (most
recently in August 2017), industry has identified the following
challenges and barriers to achieving the vision of a self-sustaining
marketplace in LEO:
Uncertainty Concerning Future Availability and Uses of ISS/LEO
Platforms
Industry needs a clear statement of U.S. policy and commitment
regarding the creation and support of an economy in LEO. Industry wants
to understand what NASA's transition plan is for ISS and LEO beyond
2024. Companies need concrete assurances that they can plan activities
in LEO beyond the ISS program, and that the U.S. Government is
committed to being involved in a commercial replacement, including
whether it is as a regulator and customer, or other role.
Cost of Transportation/Access
Today, the $1.7 billion annual cost of transportation to the ISS
represents over half of the total ISS budget. NASA's current policy of
providing transportation for all payloads has been a significant
incentive to attract new users to the platform. It is uncertain whether
these and future users would be able to afford their own access costs.
The U.S. commercial launch providers are continuing initiatives to
lower costs through innovations including reuse of components; however,
launch costs continue to be substantial. Access to affordable and
reliable transportation also has broader implications, such as ability
to operate and manage any such ISS/LEO platforms.
Government Acceptance of the Premise that Commerce has Value
ISS activities shouldn't be limited to only those activities that
are considered the ``best and highest'' uses of the ISS National
Laboratory. U.S. companies seek authorization to brand, advertise,
promote tourism, and manufacture commercial products on government
platforms like the ISS that otherwise have little intrinsic value from
a national perspective. In the view of U.S. industry, commercial
companies should be able to conduct business on ISS as long as those
activities are safe, legal, and ethical. There also needs to be a
discussion with the ISS International Partners on the implications of
broadened use in order to ensure consensus and effective
implementation. This is being addressed in the development of the ISS
commercial use policy.
Ability of Government Astronauts to Participate in Commercial
Activities
Appropriated funds limitations, absence of statutory promotion
authority and Federal ethics rules affect the ability of Government
employees to participate in certain commercial activities being sought
by companies, especially where endorsement or advertising are involved.
This limits the types of activities that can be performed and some
private revenue-generating activities. NASA has received expressions of
interest to enable these types of activities as a means to an end for
development of a commercial LEO marketplace.
Lack of Current Commercial Pricing Structure
In order to transition to a more commercial model where commercial
users pay for transportation and other services, NASA must develop a
pricing structure for ISS services that does not exist today.
Flexibility in Contracting and Public/Private Partnership Agreement
Mechanisms
Industry sees funded Space Act Agreements and other non-Federal
Acquisition Regulation agreement mechanisms as preferred options for
stimulating a new commercial space capability and would like NASA to
expand their use as part of any LEO commercialization efforts.
Recognition of Intellectual Property (IP) Rights
NASA and the Department of Energy are the two principal Federal
agencies that, pursuant to statute, take title to contractor inventions
made in performance of their duties under their contract (including
recipients of cooperative agreements, like CASIS, and grants) [51
U.S.C. Sec. 20135]. Today, this title-taking requirement is seen as a
barrier to private industry seeking to participate with NASA in
research and development activities on the ISS National Lab because
NASA takes title to any inventions made by such entities in the course
of work funded by NASA.
In 2017 NASA improved the ability of private industry to retain
title to their inventions. NASA granted a patent waiver (i.e., a
``Class Waiver'') that allows commercial institutions with user
agreements to retain title to their inventions. Specifically, the
waiver applies to CASIS' user agreements with commercial institutions
that: (1) receive access to the ISS National Lab under CASIS'
cooperative agreement with NASA, but (d) do not receive any NASA funds
from CASIS under the user agreement. This change is reflected in the
patent rights clause in CASIS' cooperative agreement. NASA also
ensured, through the data rights clause, that parties to user
agreements receive unlimited rights to data produced under the
agreement and need only share such data with the Government and CASIS
in limited situations. It is anticipated that the patent waiver and
revised data rights clause will spur greater interest in performing
privately-funded research and development work on the ISS National Lab.
In addition to NASA's grant of the ``Class Waiver,'' the Agency has
also sought a legislative proposal that would further maximize the
intellectual property rights retained by ISS National Laboratory users.
Although users may retain title to their inventions under the recently
approved ``Class Waiver,'' the Government is still required under the
Space Act to retain a license in such inventions for Government
purposes. Therefore, while the U.S. Government purpose license does not
permit any transfer of the inventions to commercial entities for
commercial purposes, it continues to be identified by industry as a
barrier to commercial research and development because of a fear that
the license could result in their competitors gaining access to their
sensitive and/or proprietary information. The proposed legislation
would exempt in totality inventions arising from use of the ISS
National Laboratory from NASA's title taking authority under the Space
Act. ISS National Laboratory users would thus have immediate and full
ownership of their inventions without NASA and other Federal agencies
utilizing those commercial inventions for their own programs and
activities. NASA supports this legislative proposal as a means to
facilitate greater use of ISS National Laboratory and LEO
commercialization.
(3) Potential markets
As non-NASA utilization of the ISS National Lab and interest in LEO
continues to expand, some initial assessments of potential revenue-
producing activities have been conducted by CASIS, NASA, and the
Science and Technology Policy Institute (STPI--see Section 4.3). Based
on these preliminary assessments, the potential activities that could
generate revenue for a crew-tended or permanently-crewed platform in
LEO can generally be summarized in the following categories:
Human habitats as a destination for private space flight
participants, including Government-sponsored astronauts from
the United States and other Partner or non-Partner nations;
Activities supporting the satellite sector, such as on-orbit
assembly of satellites;
Manufacturing products and services for use in space and on
Earth;
Research and development, testing, and Earth observation;
Media, advertising, and education.
Estimates for revenues from these activities vary widely depending
on many assumptions--operating costs of the platform, revenue models,
magnitude of forecasted demand, future transportation costs--making it
difficult to make projections as to the viability of these or other
potential markets that might emerge.
These types of assessments will continue to be updated as markets
and assumptions mature over time. Though NASA is seeing an increase in
new users that suggests a promising trend, today's projections conclude
that it is unlikely that these activities will have matured to the
point where they can sustain a private platform and their own
transportation costs to LEO by 2024 without significant ongoing
Government support.
(4) The Commercial LEO Development Program
Through the proposed Commercial LEO Development program, NASA will
support commercial partner development of capabilities that the private
sector and NASA can use. Efforts will focus on enabling, developing,
and deploying commercial orbital platforms and user demand
capabilities, with a goal towards ensuring that the U.S. has access to
an orbital platform on which to conduct research and develop new
technologies.
To achieve the Commercial LEO Development program's goals, its
initial activities may include studies on the transition of ISS and
other platforms in LEO, risk reduction activities to begin the
development of capabilities that could satisfy NASA's needs in LEO, or
the development of private platforms or modules attached to the ISS or
free-flying in LEO. $150M has been requested in FY2019 for these
activities. This mechanism will allow interested parties to specify
what support they desire from NASA, what commercial opportunities they
are pursuing, and viability of private industries business case. This
could potentially include options such as: (a) access to a port on ISS;
(b) access to NASA's experience and capabilities through its unique
workforce with expertise in the design, construction, launch,
operations, and/or utilization of orbital platforms; and (c) financial
support provided through the Commercial LEO Development program. As a
companion activity to this program, NASA will develop a policy that
ensures that NASA or ISS National Laboratory activities do not compete
with the capabilities provided by commercial LEO platforms. In the
longer term, activities currently supported by NASA and the ISS
National Laboratory could be fully transitioned onto these new
platforms once available. The Commercial LEO Development program will
allow private industry to experiment with commercial activities and
demonstrate the viability of commercial human spaceflight activities.
The Commercial LEO Development program will advance the Nation's
goals in LEO and exploration by furthering development and maturity of
the commercial space market to enable private industry to assume roles
that have been traditionally Government-only, and to potentially
realize cost savings to the Government by leveraging private industry
innovation and commercial market incentives.
4.3: Science and Technology Policy Institute Analysis
An initial assessment was conducted in 2017.
The Science and Technology Policy Institute (STPI), under the
direction of OSTP, conducted an initial assessment in 2017 of the
viability of a private LEO platform. An executive summary of the full
report (``Market Analysis of a Privately Owned and Operated Space
Station,'' by Keith W. Crane, Benjamin A. Corbin, Bhavya Lal, Reina S.
Buenconsejo, Danielle Piskorz, Annalisa L. Weigel, February 2018)
follows:
The Administration has set the goal of transitioning the
International Space Station (ISS) to a model where NASA is one of many
customers of a non-governmental enterprise that owns and operates a
human-tended space station in low Earth orbit (LEO). This transition
poses important questions about continued U.S. human presence in LEO.
Is the private sector likely to take over and run ISS on a commercial
basis? Or will governments, including that of the United States,
continue to be the primary owners, operators, and customers for space
stations? The purpose of this evaluation is to determine whether a
future (i.e., 2025 and beyond) private space station could generate
sufficient revenues from a variety of possible activities to cover the
operations and capital costs of such an endeavor.
Methodology
We assumed that a private space station would be wholly owned and
operated by private parties who would decide the station's
capabilities, the markets it would serve, and the prices it would
charge for its services. We identified revenue-generating activities,
envisioning the station as an industrial park in space where entities
rent parts of the station for their activities. We then generated
``high'' and ``low'' estimates of revenues that the space station could
earn by leasing space or providing services in support of these
activities, corresponding to different sets of revenue-driving
assumptions, although neither should be considered a strict lower or
upper bound. We generated these estimates using inputs from interviews
with over 70 experts, by examining current ISS activities, and by
drawing on other sources to determine likely market size in order to
develop separate cost methodologies for each posited activity.
The analysis has had to incorporate a number of cost assumptions
for the 2025 and beyond timeframe. Some of the most critical of these
are: cost of launching an astronaut, about $20 million; encapsulated
cargo, about $20,000 per kilogram (kg); and propellant transport,
$5,000 per kg. These represent considerable savings over market prices
when research for this project was conducted, between May and October
2016.
Potential Private Space Station Activities and Revenue Streams
STPI identified 21 separate types of activities that could generate
revenues on a private LEO space station. These fell into five broad
categories: (1) Habitats for space flight participants or government
astronauts, (2) activities supporting the satellite sector, especially
on-orbit assembly of satellites, (3) manufacturing products and
services for use in space and on Earth, (4) research and development
(R&D), testing, and Earth observation, and (5) Media, advertising, and
education.
The ``low'' estimate for total annualized revenues from activities
conducted on a space station is about $460 million, and the ``high''
estimate is roughly $1.2 billion. Manufacturing in space is the largest
contributor to overall revenues, accounting for nearly 35 percent of
the ``high'' estimate and more than half of the ``low''. Potentially
profitable manufacturing of exotic optical fibers drive these revenues.
Revenue from satellite support is 30 percent of total revenues in the
``high'' estimate.
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The large difference between the ``high'' and ``low'' estimates
reflects the highly tentative nature of the cost estimates. Our
methodology ruled out products and services such as growing human
organs in space that we believe are more than a decade away from
reality. Other challenges make our projections particularly uncertain,
such as competition from other nations, new technology developments
that negate the need for production in microgravity, and uncertain
market growth patterns. While the projections are per force
speculative, they do provide empirically-based assessments of almost
all of the activities that have been discussed as potential revenue
sources for a privately owned and operated space station.
Private Space Station Potential Costs and Net Profits
We next examined general types of space station configurations to
determine ones that might best generate revenues. We developed cost
estimates for a station constructed from ISS-heritage modules and one
constructed from expandable modules. We also used a publicly available
estimate of the costs of a Skylab-like station as a benchmark. There
are three elements in the breakdown of the annual cost estimate: (1)
the costs of designing and constructing the station (amortized over 10
years), (2) costs of operations, and (3) costs to the station owner of
transporting their astronaut employees to and from the station and
resupplying them. Given the lack of consensus among our interviewees,
we generated a low and a high estimate for operations costs.
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Neither estimate of annual revenues covers the estimate of
annualized costs for the expensive benchmark station. Out of the four
boundary scenarios, only in the high-revenue low-cost estimate would
the station be profitable, as shown in the diagram below. Venture
capitalists interviewed for the project noted that the projections of
revenues and costs are so uncertain that they would have little
interest in financing a space station until projected revenues show
signs of actually materializing.
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A sensitivity analysis on the results showed launch costs to be the
major driver of both revenues and costs. If launch costs were cut in
half, either as a result of a technology breakthrough or a government
subsidy, the estimates of revenues for the low-cost station would
increase by 23 to 53 percent, for the ``high''- and ``low'' scenarios,
respectively, and costs would decrease by 16 percent. If the government
subsidizes launch costs entirely, revenues for a low-cost private space
station would go up by 46 to 106 percent, for the ``high''- and ``low''
scenarios, respectively, and costs would decrease by 33 percent.
Federal Government Participation in the Private Space Station Market
The Federal Government may wish to plan in advance about how it
would engage in the emergence of a private space station or space
stations, to potentially reduce market, financing, regulatory, policy,
and technology risks to operators and their investors. Options that
could be used separately or together to assemble a strategy for
government participation include:
Early stage investment through a public-private partnership:
A private space station is inherently risky. The U.S.
Government can participate as an investor in a public-private
partnership with a space station owner and operator to ensure
that the project comes to fruition and also to influence the
design of the station to ensure that it fills NASA's needs. The
private partners need not be commercial entities; they could be
a non-profit consortium of universities or other organizations
with the ability to raise private funds.
Advance purchase or lease agreements: Through advance
purchase agreements and advance long-term lease agreements for
a private space station, the U.S. Government could provide an
early customer commitment to secure a guarantee-of-service at
more favorable conditions than purchases at market prices after
the station is completed. These policy instruments shift the
outlays of expenditures closer to the time of delivery of the
product or service than would a direct investment in the
station.
Direct purchases of space station services: The U.S.
Government could choose to wait until a space station is
completed and operating, then rent space for R&D or purchase
other services provided by the station as needed. At that point
in time, purchases of services would be at market prices that
would likely be higher than prices provided for advance
purchases. Services may also be subject to availability
constraints; however, purchases on these conditions would offer
the government flexibility, as the government would have made
no commitment in advance to purchase services.
4.4: Utilizing The ISS to Enable Human Exploration of the Solar System
Through its Exploration Campaign, NASA will lead an innovative and
sustainable program of human and robotic exploration with commercial
and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar
system, and to bring new knowledge and opportunities back to Earth.
Beginning with missions beyond LEO, the U.S. will lead the return of
humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed
by human missions to Mars and other destinations. The delivery and
return of astronauts and cargo to and from ISS is measured in hours,
but any journey to Mars will take many months each way, and early
return is not an option. Deep space crewed missions will not have
regular access to the Earth's resources or the ability to rapidly
return to Earth if a system fails. This is an entirely different
operating regime, not just for physical access but also for
communications with Earth-based teams. Astronauts in deep space must be
more self-reliant and spacecraft systems and operations must be more
automated to operate safely. Habitation systems must become more
efficient and more reliable for safe, healthy, and sustainable human
exploration. Furthermore, crews must be protected from the unique
hazardous environments of deep space. Some deep space systems may have
to remain dormant for years in preparation for crew, and must remain in
operational order. Overcoming these challenges will be essential for
deep space exploration.
The Agency has developed a phased approach for deep space
exploration, starting with ISS and progressing to cislunar space, the
lunar surface, then to Mars and beyond. NASA is already well underway
in executing this approach. Aboard the ISS, NASA and its partners are
conducting targeted research to improve understanding of how humans
adapt and function during long-duration space travel. Current and
planned risk-reducing investigations include bone and muscle loss
studies, understanding the effects of intracranial pressure changes and
fluid shifts, monitoring immune function and cardiovascular health,
conducting nutritional studies, and validating exercise protocols. With
these studies, NASA explores the physiology of the human body,
preparing for long-duration spaceflight and supporting development of
terrestrial drugs and therapeutic practices. NASA and its partners'
activities on the ISS are achieving key milestones and enabling an
expansion to early pioneering missions in cislunar space.
On ISS over the coming years, NASA will also demonstrate many of
the capabilities needed to maintain a healthy and productive crew in
deep space. Currently manifested or planned experiments and
demonstrations include improved long-duration life support, improved
environmental monitoring technologies, advanced fire safety equipment,
next-generation spacesuit technologies, advanced avionics and autonomy,
high-data-rate communications and precision navigation, in-space
additive manufacturing, advanced exercise and medical equipment, and
radiation monitoring and shielding.
Specific systems and capabilities under development on ISS include:
Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) and
Environmental Monitoring Leveraging the ISS, NASA is focused on
demonstrating advanced capabilities for robust and reliable ECLSS,
which must operate for up to 1,100 days with minimal spares and
consumables. Water and oxygen for human exploration in deep space will
need to be launched with the crew, recycled from the spacecraft's
atmosphere and astronauts' waste, or made using the resources of the
destination--such as water ice on Mars. Missions into deep space will
not have Station's resupply capability, so improvements to recycling
processes and technologies are needed to fly long-duration missions.
The Station's current system recycles about 90 percent of the water and
about 47 percent of the oxygen in the spacecraft while disposing of the
crew's solid waste and the briny liquid waste left over from recycling.
Regular resupply missions to the orbiting outpost supplement the
unrecovered water and oxygen and provide replacement components for
those that fail on the system.
To reach a water recovery goal of 98 percent, for example (in
comparison with ISS' current recovery capability of approximately 90
percent), NASA will test new technology to reclaim additional water
from the urine brine and process for reuse. NASA is also planning
upgrades to improve the water recovery system reliability and reduce
maintenance, including an improved catalyst for the water processing
assembly.
To reach a goal of greater than 75 percent recycled oxygen for deep
space missions, NASA is investigating methods that involve the reaction
of hydrogen and carbon dioxide to produce solid carbon and water, or
acetylene and water. These candidate technologies go beyond the current
system on the Station that reacts carbon dioxide and hydrogen to
produce methane and water, and would increase oxygen recovery to
between 75 and 100 percent. The resulting water is split into
breathable oxygen for the crew by the oxygen generation system, and the
hydrogen is recycled back to react with more carbon dioxide.
Methods to manage and reduce metabolic and non-metabolic solid
waste will also be demonstrated on ISS. A new Universal Waste
Management System (UWMS) will be added to the current Russian commode.
Technologies to compact, stabilize, and recover useful resources from
trash, methods to repurpose logistical packing materials such as cargo
bags and foam, and a simple laundry system will also be demonstrated.
Over the next five years, NASA will install a series of exploration
ECLSS demonstrations on ISS, culminating in an integrated demonstration
of an exploration ECLSS system on the Station for two to three years to
prove reliability. Additionally, ISS will conduct demonstrations of
Environmental Monitoring systems that detect potentially hazardous
materials in the atmosphere and water as well as combustion products.
This will enable a transition away from sample return to fully on-orbit
environmental monitoring.
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Communications and Navigation
Currently, Mars robotic rovers have data rates around two million
bits per second, using a relay, such as the Mars Reconnaissance
Orbiter. Transmission from the ISS is two orders of magnitude faster,
at a rate of 300 million bits per second. Future human Mars missions
may need up to a billion bits per second at a range many times greater
than the distance to ISS, requiring laser-based communications, in
addition to radio, to reduce weight and power. In addition, disruption
and error-tolerant interplanetary networking and improved navigation
capabilities are required to ensure accurate trajectories and precision
landing. The Neutron-star Interior Composition Explorer/Station
Explorer for X-ray Timing and Navigation Technology (NICER/SEXTANT),
installed on ISS in June 2017, is one such capability that will enable
improved navigation. It will test--for the first time in space--
technology that relies on pulsars as navigational beacons. The
technique may eventually guide human exploration to the distant reaches
of the solar system and beyond. Additional details on communications
and navigation technology will be included in the Space Communications
plan (called for in Section 304(a) of the NASA Transition Authorization
Act of 2017) to be provided to Congress in spring of 2018.
Advanced Avionics, Software, and Autonomy
In order to support extended human exploration to the Moon and
beyond, a more integrated and autonomous vehicle will be needed,
requiring more advanced avionics (computers, memory, networking, and
software). As these systems and associated architecture are developed,
systems will be flown on ISS to test and verify the capabilities in
space. The advanced avionics will also be used to connect other new
systems (e.g., ECLSS, or power), such as the Lunar Gateway and future
interplanetary vehicles.
Future vehicles will need to operate with no crew and limited
ground control. To achieve this, more comprehensive and advanced
autonomous systems, including vehicle health monitoring and
reconfiguration, need to be developed and tested. The ISS will serve as
a testbed for these systems. Initially, new autonomous system
technology is being tested using existing ISS computers. As these
advanced avionics architectures and systems are developed, the enhanced
computing capability will be used to test and verify more advanced
autonomous operations. In addition, the crew will need more advanced
tools to assist them, such as planning assistants and augmented reality
for troubleshooting and maintenance. As these are being developed, they
will be tested on ISS to ensure they provide the astronauts with the
required capabilities. Early versions of some of these tools are being
tested on ISS now; this will grow in number and complexity as NASA
develops more comprehensive or diverse tools and some of these will
require the advanced avionics.
Exploration Extravehicular Activity
Human explorers will require deep space exploration Extravehicular
Activity (EVA) suits for use in cislunar space and beyond. Such suits
must be available to provide for exploration of deep space destinations
and environments, and for contingency EVAs in transit. The environments
and logistics demand a different design solution than met by the
current flight suit. New EVA systems must supply basic biological needs
during spacewalks, provide protection from hostile environments, and
enable comfort, flexibility, and dexterity to support human exploration
and investigation of new worlds. Advanced space suit design,
manufacture, and operation must address a wide range of considerations
NASA has identified in recent years. For example, advanced space suits
will operate at higher suit pressures to reduce EVA prebreathe and risk
of decompression sickness. Filling consumables at higher pressures
reduces the need to return exploration suits to Earth for servicing
after contingency events have drained secondary oxygen tanks. High
pressure oxygen generation systems will be demonstrated on ISS to
address this requirement. Near-term planned EVA technology
demonstrations on ISS include testing to advance the technology
readiness level of the Solid Water Membrane Evaporation (SWME) system
to provide cooling for the next-generation spacesuit. More details on
the challenges associated with EVA in deep space environments and
NASA's planned EVA capability development efforts can be found in the
Advanced Suit Capability Plan provided to Congress in June 2017.
Fire Safety
Whether traveling through interplanetary space or on the surface of
another planet, the habitat must detect and stop a fire while
protecting the crew, and sustaining only minimal, if any, damage.
Current systems onboard ISS rely upon large carbon dioxide suppressant
tanks and have no fire cleanup capability other than depressurizing and
re-pressurizing the cabin atmosphere. Deep space exploration systems
require a unified fire safety approach that works across small and
large architecture elements.
Early detection is key to protecting the crew and vehicle. The ISS
uses smoke detectors to spot the presence of any potential fire-
initiated problems. Advanced smoke detectors--about the size of a small
tissue box--are under development for NASA's Orion spacecraft and
eventual deep space habitats. They will be placed in the vehicle's
ventilation system and if a fire is detected, the spacecraft's fire
suppression systems will extinguish it. Additionally, a non-toxic
portable fire extinguisher is being developed and tested on ISS to
provide additional fire suppression capability.
The real danger to astronauts is not necessarily fire itself but
the gases produced during combustion, including carbon monoxide, carbon
dioxide, hydrogen fluoride, hydrogen cyanide, and hydrogen chloride.
NASA is developing a filtering cartridge dubbed the ``smoke-eater'' to
neutralize and remove these compounds. The smoke-eater will be used in
the spacecraft's atmospheric cleanup system, and a smaller version will
be used in an emergency crew mask that contains its own air supply.
Demonstrations of the unit will occur during the Spacecraft Fire
Experiment (SAFFIRE) series of investigations that NASA has been
executing aboard Orbital ATK's Cygnus vehicles after they depart the
ISS. Through these experiments, NASA will gather valuable data on how
combustion gas and fire dangers spread in a spacecraft and how the
vehicle's detection, suppression, and cleanup technologies respond.
Computer models will be developed from that data, enabling prediction
of how the fire will propagate in a spacecraft and how the cleanup will
go.
Crew Health and Performance
Long-duration exploration-class human missions, including Mars-
duration missions of up to 1,100 days, introduce new and increased
concerns for human safety, health, and performance. NASA is conducting
scientific research needed to supply the evidence base for both
technological and operational countermeasures to best address these
risks. Human research on ISS includes assessments of devices,
consumables/logistics, and operational procedures for the use of these
capabilities in a representative microgravity environment in order to
supply appropriate solutions to meet the health, safety, and
performance challenges of long-duration exploration class missions.
Technological and operational interventions and countermeasures that
mitigate risk for long duration, exploration class missions include
those which (i) optimize adaptation of the individual and crew to the
space environment, and maintain emotional well-being, motivation,
social cohesion, communication, morale, and productivity; (ii) support
prevention, monitoring, diagnosis, treatment, and long term management
of crew in-flight health conditions; including those induced or
exacerbated by mission characteristics e.g., microgravity and radiation
influenced conditions, and long-duration confinement with limited
communications beyond the crew; and, (iii) ensure that the habitat
environment design, its ambient environment, architectural affordances,
and crew information and communication technologies support task
performance requirements and general safety and habitability
requirements for crew.
The Integrated Path to Risk Reduction (iPRR) displays the long-
range, strategic research plan and schedule and contains a top-level
summary of all the risks to the human system, research tasks necessary
to close the gaps in our knowledge of these risks the logical sequence
and timing of significant tasks, milestones (such as gap closure), and
completion of major deliverables. The current version of the iPRR is
maintained at https://humanresearchroadmap.nasa.gov. A simplified
version is shown below.
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Human Research on the ISS focuses on reducing the risks of health
and performance problems in future exploration missions. Research is
prioritized to maximize the productivity of ISS resources.
Radiation Protection
Outside the Earth's magnetic field, crew and electronics are
exposed to increased high-energy particles, including constant exposure
to galactic cosmic rays and infrequent--but potentially deadly--solar
particle events. These high-energy particles can reduce immune
response, increase cancer risk, and interfere with electronics. NASA's
HRP is developing methods and technologies to protect, mitigate, and
treat the effects of various types of radiation on the crew and their
exploration systems. Installed on ISS in December 2016, the Fast
Neutron Spectrometer (FNS) investigation studies a new neutron
measurement technique that is better suited in the mixed radiation
fields found in deep space. Future manned and exploration missions will
benefit from clearer, more error-free measurement of the neutron flux
present in an environment with multiple types of radiation.
Logistics and In-Space Manufacturing
Living in deep space away from the frequent resupply enjoyed by ISS
crews will require NASA to reduce, recycle, reuse, and repurpose
materials. NASA is investigating long-wearing clothing and laundry
capabilities to replace the current practice of disposing of cotton
clothing. The Agency is also investing in tools to repurpose packaging
materials for use as feedstock for in-space manufacturing of items such
as replacement parts, science equipment consumables, short-lifespan
hygiene equipment, and other tools. NASA's in-space manufacturing
objective is to develop and test on-demand manufacturing capabilities
for fabrication, repair, and recycling during deep space exploration
missions. NASA is leveraging the significant and rapidly-evolving
terrestrial technologies for on-demand manufacturing, adapting
technologies to the microgravity environment and operations. Technology
demonstrations on board ISS will lead to development of an integrated
``Fab Lab'' facility with the capability to manufacture multi-material
components (including metal tools and electronics), as well as
automation of part inspection and removal that will be necessary for
sustainable exploration opportunities.
4.5: Benefits to Humanity
The success of the ISS as a research platform is measured, in part,
in traditional scientific terms such as number of scientists using the
platform, number of experiments completed, and number of scientific
publications and their impacts. With the completion of the U.S. On-
orbit Segment (USOS) of ISS in 2011 and the installation of its planned
suite of science instrumentation, the academic community has given
research on the ISS a new priority. Participation in NASA solicitations
for ISS research continues to grow, with proposals for research
projects submitted by leading research universities across the United
States. Data from previous experiments on the ISS is now available
online for scientists to study.
The scientific rationale for the use of ISS for research and the
potential exploration and terrestrial benefits is outlined by the
National Academies of Science in their 2011 decadal survey--
``Recapturing a Future for Space Exploration: Life and Physical
Sciences Research for a New Era.'' NASA has completed a midterm review
with the National Academies of the implementation of this survey. Of
special interest to the Nation are those areas where knowledge gained
on the ISS goes beyond the scientific literature to have a direct
impact on the lives of people here on Earth. All serve as examples of
LEO platforms' potential as a groundbreaking research facility. Through
advancing the state of scientific knowledge of Earth, looking after
human health, developing advanced technologies, and providing a space
platform that fosters commercialization, these benefits will drive the
legacy of Station as its research strengthens economies and enhances
the quality of life here on Earth for all people. Below are some
benefits that have come from ISS research in the area of human health,
Earth observation, innovative technologies, and space commerce. Details
of the highlights listed below are tracked in a triennial international
publication, ISS Benefits for Humanity, currently in its 2nd edition,
with a 3rd edition under development.
Human Health
Understanding the Acting Mechanism of Osteoporosis Treatments:
Biotech and pharmaceutical companies are using mouse models during
spaceflight as a medium to study their drugs and do preclinical work
that is important for Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approvals.
Industry partner Amgen tested three drugs (two for bone loss, one for
muscle atrophy) that were under development on Space Shuttle missions
to ISS. One of these drugs was Prolia, which came to market in 2011.
CASIS has partnered with Novartis and Eli Lilly, who are also
conducting research using mice on ISS as part of their development
cycles for other drugs to treat muscle wasting and bone loss.
New Drug for Duchenne's Muscular Dystrophy in Clinical Trials:
Japanese scientists, through JAXA, crystallized a human prostaglandin
D2 synthase-inhibitor complex (H-PGDS/HQL-79 complex) on ISS,
identifying an improved complex structure and an associated water
molecule that was not previously known. The H-PGDS protein has been
shown to play a critical role in the formation of Duchenne muscular
dystrophy--the most prevalent genetic form of muscular dystrophy,
impacting up to 1 in 3,000 boys globally. As a result of this
discovery, a new drug was developed that was successfully tested in
Phase 1 human clinical trials and is now being tested in Phase 2
clinical trials.
Improving the Delivery of FDA-approved Immunotherapy: KEYTRUDA is
an FDA-approved drug from Merck that is a monoclonal antibody (a large
biological molecule or biologic) used in cancer immunotherapy which was
crystallized on ISS. Crystallizing the protein allows Merck scientists
to understand how it functions to improve treatment for patients on
Earth. Crystallizing these monoclonal antibodies enables a method for
delivering large doses with injections, rather than intravenously, and
improves methods for storing monoclonal antibodies for extended
periods.
Robotic Surgery Applications: The development and use of the
robotic arm for space missions on the Space Shuttle and the ISS by CSA
has led to the world's first MRI (Magnetic Resonance Imaging)-
compatible image-guided, computer-assisted device specifically designed
for neurosurgery. This technology, called Irmis, has also been applied
to develop the world's first robot capable of performing surgery inside
MRI machines. It is also being applied in the design of KidsArm (a
sophisticated teleoperated surgical system designed to specifically to
operate on small children and babies). The device is now being used to
augment surgeons' skills to perform neurosurgeries that are
traditionally considered difficult or impossible, thus leading to
better patient outcomes.
Like Irmis, the Image Guided Autonomous Robot (IGAR) was designed
to work in conjunction with an MRI that is highly sensitive to early
detection of suspicious breast lesions. It is being used in clinical
trials right now to provide increased access, precision, and dexterity
in placing the biopsy and ablation tools within 1mm of the lesion.
Wound Treatment with Cold Plasma: Technology developed to study
dusty plasmas--a mixture of small particles in the charged gases of a
plasma--has led to new insights into this unusual type of matter.
Understanding the modes and dynamics of this mixed form of matter helps
researchers on the ground understand the antibacterial properties of
cold plasmas and how to apply those fundamental discoveries to new
technologies. Knowledge gained from this ESA-sponsored ISS research has
been applied in Europe to develop a medical device called terraplasma
GmbH for disinfecting wounds, neutralizing drug-resistant bacteria, and
promoting improved wound healing time.
Earth Observation and Space Science
Measuring Cyclones from ISS: Atmospheric scientists at Visidyne,
Inc. captured time-lapse images of tropical cyclones using automated
and handheld cameras aimed through one of the portals on Station. This
imagery is used to measure the heights and temperature of the cloud
tops just outside the clear eye at the center of the storm, where the
highest winds and most torrential rainfall are located. Combining these
measurements with other data allows scientists to retrieve the storm's
central sea-level air pressure, which leads to more accurate prediction
of the intensities (peak wind speeds) and paths of the storms before
they hit land. It also provides an increased understanding of the
eyewall replacement cycle.
Monitoring the Earth's Atmosphere: The Stratospheric Aerosol and
Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) was launched to ISS in February 2017, and
stands ready to follow in the footsteps of its predecessor facilities
to capture atmospheric data that could contribute to long-term
monitoring of ozone vertical profiles that inform international
assessment activities of ozone depletion and climate change. The SAGE
III instrument's primary objective is to monitor the vertical
distribution of aerosols, ozone, and other trace gases in the Earth's
stratosphere and troposphere to enhance understanding of ozone recovery
and climate change processes in the stratosphere and upper troposphere.
In the event of natural disasters, such as volcanic eruptions, these
ISS-based observations and measurements assist decision makers and
first responders in addressing public health and aviation impacts.
Ocean Vector Winds: ISS-RapidScat, which operated from September
2014 until August 2016, was a scatterometer that measured wind speeds
and direction over the ocean. These measurements were used in near-real
time to improve weather forecast models, including storm events, used
by the United States Navy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, and by European and Indian scientists.
Images from Space Station Aid in Disaster Response: The Station
offers a unique vantage for observing the Earth's ecosystems with both
hands-on and automated equipment. Station crews can observe and collect
camera images of unfolding events as they occur. They may also provide
input to ground controllers for the programmed observations of the
Station's automated Earth-sensing systems. This flexibility is an
advantage over sensors on unmanned spacecraft, especially when
unexpected natural events such as volcanic eruptions and earthquakes
occur. The full suite of ISS instrument sensors is informed of
activations under the International Disaster Charter (IDC) so that
images and data related to floods, droughts, and other events can be
distributed to U.S. and international agencies responding to the
crises. During FY 2017, ISS instruments received 45 IDC activations.
Exploring the Universe: Humanity's understanding of the universe is
being expanded through experiments flown to the ISS. The Alpha Magnetic
Spectrometer (AMS), launched in 2011, is a multinational partnership
led by the U.S. Department of Energy that is unlocking the secrets of
dark matter. The Cosmic-Ray Energetics and Mass for the International
Space Station (ISS-CREAM) was launched in 2017 to learn how cosmic rays
are accelerated to the tremendous energies--far beyond what is produced
in particle accelerators here on Earth--at which they pass through the
universe. The Neutron star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER)
studies the extraordinary physics of neutron stars, and may pave the
way for a future GPS-like system for spacecraft navigation anywhere in
the solar system. Today's basic astrophysics research aboard is
advancing NASA's strategic objectives in astrophysics and expanding
humanity's understanding of the universe.
Innovative Technologies
Medical Device Technology use Space-Validated Fluid Models: The
Capillary Flow Experiments examined capillary flows in space and led to
an understanding of how to make liquids behave and how to influence
where the liquid goes using passive forces of wetting and surface
tension. They also led to the first space-validated models describing
fluid behavior in space. These models and measurements are now being
applied to the design of a technology called the Human Emulation
System. This ``organ on chip'' can be used for predicting human
response to diseases, medicines, chemicals, and foods.
Improving Semiconductors with Nanofibers: Research on the ISS led
to the development of a two-dimensional nanofiber layer that can
assemble by itself into a very tight, repeating pattern. This material
layer was used as a template that can be traced like a blueprint to
mark the processing surface of a semiconductor. This novel process can
be useful in developing new motherboards and computers and in creating
chemical catalysts for industrial processes. Nano-patterned surfaces
can also be used to detect individual molecules, which may improve
research on new drugs to treat human diseases.
Technology Applications for Clean Water: Water recycling, oxygen
generation, and carbon dioxide removal are critical technologies for
reducing the logistics re-supply requirements for human spaceflight.
This ISS demonstration project is applying lessons learned from
operational experiences to next-generation technologies. The resin used
in the ISS water processor assembly has been developed as a commercial
water filtration solution for use in disaster and humanitarian relief
zones in portable water filtration plants. The system has successfully
provided clean water after natural disasters and in community
development projects around the world.
Space Commerce
A Gateway to Space: A series of CubeSats--small satellites, each
about the size of a loaf of bread--are delivered to ISS and jettisoned
into orbit using the NanoRacks CubeSat Deployer (NRCSD) and JAXA's
Japanese Exposure Module-Small Satellite Orbiter Deployer (J-SSOD),
from the Japanese Kibo module. These deployers provide a gateway to the
extreme environment of space for Earth-and deep space observation. They
are self-contained deployment systems that consist of rectangular
launchers that deploy the small satellites to place them into orbit,
and they have opened up new possibilities for U.S. Government
organizations, commercial companies, and universities across the globe
as a gateway to space. The satellites conduct a variety of studies,
such as Earth observation, including studying weather patterns or
monitoring the gaseous molecules in the atmosphere. More than 180
CubeSats have been deployed from the Station.
Growth of the U.S. National Laboratory
The CASIS mission is to facilitate use of the ISS National
Laboratory by academic researchers, other Government organizations,
startups, small businesses, and major commercial companies. More than
half of these projects launched in FY 2017 involved commercial entities
that funded their research and development efforts to the ISS National
Lab. They include several Fortune 500 companies including Merck,
Proctor and Gamble, Eli Lilly, Hewlett Packard, and Boeing. In August
2017, Target and CASIS launched the ISS Cotton Sustainability Challenge
to identify innovative ideas for the sustainability of cotton. In
addition to these commercial entities, CASIS is sponsoring a protein
crystal growth investigation led by the Michael J. Fox Foundation. This
study optimizes crystallization of human protein kinase Leucine-rich
repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2), which is a key signaling molecule in neurons
and is tightly associated with the development of Parkinson's disease.
In addition, ISS National Lab projects funded by other U.S.
Government agencies (i.e., non-NASA) continued to increase to include
flight projects funded by the NIH's NCATS as a part of its Tissue Chip
for Drug Screening program; the NSF combustion and thermal transport
research, and the Department of Defense (DoD) technology development
and space test programs.
Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR)
NASA's SBIR program leverages the Nation's innovative small
business community to support early-stage research and development in
support of NASA's mission in science, technology, human exploration,
and aeronautics. This program provides the small business sector with
an opportunity to compete for funding to develop technology for NASA,
and to commercialize that technology to spur economic growth.
NASA hopes to incorporate SBIR-developed technologies into current
and future systems to contribute to the expansion of humanity across
the solar system while providing continued cost-effective ISS
operations and utilization for its customers, with a high standard of
safety, reliability, and affordability. Technology developed under the
SBIR program is transforming NASA's understanding of the complex issues
regarding space exploration and revolutionizing technology that will
deliver humans into the next stage of planetary exploration.
Successful SBIR programs on ISS include:
Techshot Bone Densitometer (Phase 3/$3,600,000): Techshot, Inc.
(Greenville, IN) developed the first X-ray machine onboard the ISS. The
bone densitometer is being used to study the bone density of rodents in
microgravity. Bone loss is one of the primary challenges of long-
duration spaceflight. The bone densitometer flew to the ISS in
September 2014 onboard SpaceX CRS-4 and has been used in multiple
rodent investigations so far, with plans for further use in upcoming
investigations.
Techshot Analytical Containment Transfer Tool (ACT2) (Phase 2e/
$150,000): In 2010, the Agency's ability to analyze the DNA of
biospecimens in space was more limited. Samples were collected, frozen,
and analyzed post flight. Since return capsules didn't yet exist, the
samples had to be sent back to Earth with returning crew. In addition,
separate tools were needed for collection and analysis, making the
transfer of samples from the Space Shuttle to the laboratory a delicate
process. The resulting ACT2 is a device that both contains and
transfers samples in a safe manner from unique experiment-specific,
spaceflight hardware to on-orbit analytical tools for real-time
analysis. There is no need to send the sample back down to Earth, which
was the previous protocol. NASA understood the ability to do this was a
crucial step for performing in-flight analysis. It's not only safer to
use than the previous combination of tools, but because it is
disposable, it is cost effective as well. The ACT2 flew to the ISS in
February 2016 with SpaceX CRS-8. Recently, Techshot received a $9.5
million Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract with
NASA. Spanning five years, the agreement essentially is a menu of
services and hardware, such as the ACT2, that the Agency can buy at
pre-negotiated rates.
Aurora Flight Sciences ISS Universal Battery Charging Station
(Phase 2e/$83,500; Phase 3/$167,000): Aurora Flight Sciences
(Cambridge, MA) has developed a Universal Battery Charger (UBC) for use
on the ISS capable of interfacing with the most commonly used batteries
on board. This technology reduces the number of chargers and single-use
batteries required on the ISS, reducing the cost of ISS operations and
resupply logistics. The UBC flew to the ISS in February 2016 onboard
SpaceX CRS-8.
Orbital Technologies Corporation Zero-G Mass Measurement Device
(ZGMMD) (Phase 2X/$300,000): Orbital Technologies Corporation (Madison,
WI) developed the Zero-Gravity Mass Measurement Device to measure the
mass of biological specimens (e.g., rodents and plants) in a
microgravity environment. Knowing the mass of the biological specimen
is integral to experimental manipulations (including anesthesia and
drug doses). Once the hardware is flight-ready, it will be scheduled
for launch to the ISS.
Terminal Velocity Aerospace Low Cost Small Re-Entry Devices to
Enhance Space Commerce and ISS Utilization (Phase 3/$300,000): Terminal
Velocity Aerospace (Atlanta, GA) developed Re-Entry Devices (REDs) as a
low-cost solution to returning small payloads from the ISS. These
payloads are about the size of four CubeSats, and are deployed from the
ISS to return small payloads. Smaller, alternative versions have also
been developed that can record critical onboard engineering data from
spacecraft reentering the atmosphere. The first group of REDs flew to
the ISS in April 2017 onboard the Orbital ATK CRS-7.
4.6: Technical Evaluation of Extending ISS Through the 2020s
There has been much discussion about the physical life of the ISS
in recent years. A technical feasibility end date of 2028 has been
informally discussed for several years; this was based on the expected
30-year structural life of the first on-orbit elements of the ISS that
were launched in 1998--the FGB and the U.S. Node 1. However, many
elements of the ISS could have a life expectancy well beyond the 2020s.
The following technical assessment is a bottoms-up structural
assessment of the ISS elements through 2028. Technical assessments
beyond 2028 have not been performed. Also highlighted below are the
critical system elements that would need to be replaced and/or
augmented to continue with nominal ISS operations toward the end of the
2020s.
Structural Life Assessment
NASA is performing a structural life assessment on the major U.S.
structural elements, including truss segments, solar arrays, radiators,
pressurized modules (including the U.S.-owned, Russian-built Functional
Cargo Block [FGB]), docking adapters, common berthing mechanisms, and
external stowage platforms. The analysis is based upon the design life
of the elements and the actual performance of the on-orbit vehicle as
measured by in situ measurements on structural items, cycle loading of
the vehicle from reboost operations, and loading from docking vehicles.
All of the elements have been structurally cleared through 2024.
As can be seen in Table 1, all of the U.S. elements that have been
on orbit for an extended time have also been cleared to 2028. The items
in Table 2 have been cleared to 2020 based on their launch date and 15-
year design life. These items have yet to be officially cleared to
2028, but given that these elements have been on orbit for a shorter
time than the items in Table 1, it is anticipated that the structural
margin of the ISS would be fully adequate to support ISS operations to
2028. The analysis to date indicates that there would be sufficient
remaining margin to operate even beyond 2028. This analysis is
scheduled to be completed by 2019.
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Non-Replaceable and Critical Hardware
In addition to assessing the structural integrity of the vehicle,
each of the key subsystems has been systematically analyzed to ensure
that its functionality and safe operations can be sustained over the
projected life extension. These analyses focused primarily on critical
structural hardware (e.g., pressure vessels), the failure of which
would be catastrophic; critical operating hardware that is not
replaceable and has no identified operational workaround; on-orbit
replacement units (ORUs) or components for which a technical time or
cycle issue would drive limited life or operational reductions; and
operating hardware with functionality that is necessary for crew
habitation or provides the capability to perform the science mission.
Hardware items that matched these criteria were examined on a case-by-
case basis. Additional work would be required for life extension to
2028 and beyond.
Critical functional capabilities that have been assessed and
cleared include: electrical power; thermal control; environmental
control and life support; propulsion; guidance, navigation and control;
communications and tracking; command and data handling; extravehicular
activity; and crew health care.
Additionally, system upgrades necessary to operate the ISS beyond
2020 have been implemented or are already under development. Such
systems include lithium ion batteries (part of the electrical power
system), power generation augmentation, oxygen and nitrogen composite
overwrap resupply tanks, upgraded communication systems, docking
systems, and rendezvous radio. The ISS is being upgraded with these
systems over the next few years, which would support ISS operations
beyond 2024.
System upgrades on the current Extravehicular Mobility Units (EMUs)
are also being implemented. This includes new batteries, inclusion of a
high rate data recorder, point-of-use filters to further purify cooling
water, and a new carbon dioxide sensor. All upgrades have applicability
toward the development of a new exploration suit. New suit technology
development for water cooling is presently underway, with deployment to
the ISS in 2018. In addition, funding is in place to develop and deploy
this new suit for extensive checkout on the ISS. Production of a fleet
of new exploration suits is still under consideration, and will be a
future trade versus extending the current EMUs past 2024.
Like the core systems, critical scientific capabilities have also
been reviewed for supportability and continued safe operations.
Permanent payload facilities supporting utilization on the ISS that
have been cleared to 2020 or beyond include:
EXpedite the PRocessing of Experiments to the Space Station
(EXPRESS) racks (a standardized payload rack system for
transporting, storing, and supporting experiments on the ISS);
Human Research Facility (HRF);
Window Observational Research Facility (WORF);
Combustion Integrated Rack (CIR);
Fluids Integrated Rack (FIR);
Microgravity Science Glovebox (MSG) (shown in the image
below);
Materials Science Research Rack (MSRR).
The ISS Program is currently evaluating the performance of these
facilities through at least 2028. Assessments to date of the few cycle-
limited components indicate sufficient margin for operation well beyond
2024 based on current predictions of facility use beyond this
timeframe.
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Functional Availability and Sparing Assessments
A comprehensive logistics analysis is performed each year to ensure
that the proper quantities of spares (ORUs) are available. NASA
assesses the expected functional availability of its systems to
determine the type and quantity of spares that will be needed over time
to sustain system operations. This analysis takes into account many
factors, including age of the components and expected on-orbit
performance based on mathematical analyses and actual hardware
performance history. Analysis shows the sparing requirements would
remain relatively flat as the ISS is operated beyond the current
expected operational lifetime to at least 2028. This holds true for
consumables as well. Consumables are those items required to sustain
the crew and normal operation of the systems, including food, clothing,
water, medicines, and waste and hygiene items. Over the years of ISS
operation, the ISS Program has determined the minimum amount of
consumables required to support operations. Consumables requirements
are well understood and expected to remain stable. The only expected
increase in consumables is associated with the fourth USOS crewmember,
enabled by new commercial crew transportation capabilities via the
Commercial Crew Program.
The only projected additional requirements for the ISS beyond 2024
in its current form, are the varying types and amount of new hardware
necessary to conduct new research and technology development on the
ISS. Much of the research growth is expected to come from private
industry and other Government agencies.
Consumables, spares, system upgrades, and new utilization hardware
are delivered to the ISS via an international cargo vehicle fleet,
comprised of the Russian Progress, Japanese HII Transfer Vehicle (HTV),
SpaceX Dragon, and Orbital ATK Cygnus. All of these uncrewed cargo
vehicles deliver pressurized cargo. External ORUs are primarily
delivered via the HTV or the Dragon. The primary means of returning
hardware, research samples, and other items to the ground is the Dragon
vehicle, although smaller items can also be returned with the crew on
the Soyuz vehicle (Sierra Nevada Corporation's Dream Chaser is expected
to come online in 2019 and will provide both pressurized and
unpressurized cargo delivery, as well as pressurized cargo return). The
other vehicles, destroyed on re-entry after departing the ISS, are used
to dispose of trash and no-longer-needed equipment.
International Partner Hardware
All the ISS partners have responsibility for assessing the
capability of their elements and systems with respect to an ISS
lifetime extension. The Russian elements have been cleared through 2020
and are in the process of being cleared to 2028, with no known issues.
CSA has identified no major issues with the robotic elements to 2028,
including the ISS robotic arm, Mobile Remote Servicer Base System, and
Special Purpose Dexterous Manipulator. The JAXA elements are cleared to
2020 and analyses for extension to 2028 are planned. The ESA
assessments to 2028 are complete and cleared.
Safety Considerations
The safety and mission assurance community has been involved
throughout all of these assessments. Work continues to review existing
hazard reports and other ISS documentation for any safety issues
relative to the ISS lifetime extension.
From a technical risk perspective, the same risks for the ISS that
exist today will exist through at least 2024 and beyond. Micrometeoroid
and orbital debris (MMOD) penetration of the pressure shell remains the
largest risk to the ISS. The likelihood of penetration will increase as
a function of the life of ISS on-orbit, although the likelihood of
penetration in any six-month period is expected to remain stable. The
USOS segment was designed with debris shields that protect the pressure
shell from MMOD debris to about one centimeter in size. The Russian
segment was not designed to the same shielding specifications, but has
been modified over the years to enhance the MMOD protection capability.
The final planned modification, which has already been implemented, is
an additional external shield for the Progress logistics vehicle. Also,
the ISS has an improved capability to maneuver to avoid objects that
are large enough to be tracked, using the Predetermined Debris
Avoidance Maneuver, which reduces the amount of notice necessary to
perform a maneuver from over a day to down to just a few hours. The
risks of operating in LEO are heavily outweighed by the benefits to the
U.S. economy, human health and well-being, and the Nation's strategic
goals in leadership and exploration of deep space.
Station is demonstrably more capable of operating in LEO today than
it was 15 years ago, and this experience has shown that NASA and its
partners are able to conduct safe and effective operations in LEO
onboard the ISS. While the risks inherent in operating in space cannot
be eliminated, the technical environment is well understood through
2028.
4.7: Cost Estimates of ISS Extension
The ISS Program analyzes its program and budget requirements on an
annual basis. The budget estimate for ISS life extension to 2024, 2028,
and 2030 based on its current configuration, including the Crew and
Cargo Program, are provided in the figure below.
[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]
Within the above budget details, ISS Systems Operations and
Maintenance (O&M) supports vehicle operations in the extreme conditions
of space with constant, around-the clock-support. ISS Research supports
research on ISS across a diverse array of disciplines, from fundamental
physics and biophysics to human physiology and biotechnology. ISS
Research also supports CASIS, the non-profit organization that manages
the ISS National Laboratory. Funding for research varies depending on
the individual payloads and other work in development. Crew and Cargo
supports transportation to and from the ISS, for both crew and cargo.
Labor and travel supports civil servant labor and travel.
The cost estimates provided in this section assume that ISS will be
de-orbited rather than turned over to a commercial entity due to the
number of potential options for that scenario. Cost estimates for life
extension through 2024 would be reflective of the budget above through
FY 2025 with deorbit in January 2025. Cost estimates for life extension
through 2028 would be reflective of the budget above through FY 2029
with deorbit in January 2029. Cost estimates for life extension through
2030 would be reflective of the budget above through FY 2031 with
deorbit in January 2031. As NASA begins to shift responsibility for
meeting its needs and requirements in LEO by leveraging private
industry capacity, innovation, and competitiveness, it could offer the
prospect of lowering the above projected cost to the Government.
The budget estimates are based on the following major assumptions:
Reflects the FY 2018 President's Budget Request for FY 2018
and the FY 2019 President's Budget Request for FY 2019 through
FY 2023.
International Partner commitments continue through the life
of the Program.
Inflation is estimated at the current contract rates or
rates experienced within that service line. NASA is expecting
to achieve cost efficiencies in order to absorb inflationary
impacts within a flat budget.
Funds Soyuz crew rotation and rescue services through spring
of 2019 and landing in fall of 2019. Assumes six-person crew
operations until commercial crew transportation begins.
Legislative relief is obtained from the limitations in the
Iran, North Korea and Syria Nonproliferation Act (INKSNA).
U.S. Visiting Vehicles include CRS for cargo transportation
and commercial crew operational services for crew rotation
through the life of ISS.
The budget covers an average of four to five CRS
missions and two commercial crew missions per year.
Once commercial crew transportation begins, the crew
complement will increase from six to seven persons; USOS
crew size will permanently increase from three to four.
Consumables content is based on performance analysis and/or
inventory assessment.
Corrective maintenance cost estimate is based on the current
hardware reliability performance.
There will be no more than one major USOS software update
per year through the life of ISS.
Six planned USOS EVAs are supported per year.
ISS deorbit and closeout costs through FY 2024, 2028, or
2030 can be absorbed within a flat budget profile. As crew and
cargo flights reduce near ISS end of life, those funds will be
re-directed to purchase de-orbit vehicles. Likewise, as spares
purchases decrease near ISS end of life, those funds will be
re-directed towards closeout activities.
Transportation and integration costs for the National Lab
research will continue to be provided by NASA.
Additional funds required to support the development of
commercial modules in LEO or on ISS are not included in the
above budget. Commercial partner development of capabilities
that the private sector and NASA can use will be funded by the
Commercial LEO Development budget line.
4.8: Community Input
On August 9, 2017, NASA held a workshop in Washington, D.C., to
engage ISS stakeholders in gathering information that may be used in
the development of NASA's future planning activities. Specifically, the
workshop targeted the commercial space sector, researchers, technology
developers, transportation and habitation providers, other Government
agencies, and other interested parties, providing a forum for dialogue
with NASA on topics relevant to Station future planning. Approximately
130 people attended the workshop. Four breakout sessions addressed the
LEO market, the value proposition of human spaceflight, public-private
partnerships, and access to space. A complete summary of the workshop,
including presentations, can be found here: https://www.nasa.gov/
content/international-space-station-stakeholder-workshop
There were several main themes from the workshop:
Attendees stated that a formal acknowledgment of a LEO
human-spaceflight-enabled commercial policy would be helpful
for building business cases. Specifically, this would lend
credibility to the idea that a need for LEO access and
capabilities is ongoing, which would aid in long-term planning.
Attendees stated that it is important that the Government
maintain its demand for human-spaceflight-enabled LEO
capabilities, and that it quantify its needs where possible.
The National Laboratory part of the ISS Program is working
well, and is facilitating access to the microgravity
environment and ISS platform in a way that is conducive to
business and development.
The attendees expressed a strong desire for a pricing policy
from NASA for services in LEO. While things like launch, crew
time, power, and data transmission are currently free for users
under the National Lab, this may not always be the case as
demand for these services increases and the availability
becomes more constrained. Ideas for study suggested by
participants included examining the pricing policy of other
Government agencies that regulate constrained markets, such as
the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for spectrum
licensing, and the Forestry Service for logging rights. The
idea of maintaining free access for users under the National
Lab while also providing a for-pay ``priority access''
capability was also raised by participants and discussed as a
group.
There was a broad desire to maintain U.S. leadership in LEO.
Attendees voiced little confidence in the ability of foreign
platforms to provide the kind of capability, reliability, and
security needed to maintain long-term business planning.
Finally, attendees said that any transition away from ISS
needs to be gradual and well-planned.
5.0: Conclusion
The ISS is in its intensive research and technology demonstration
phase and is enabling a maturing commercial market. The maturity and
stability of the ISS Partnership allows the United States to
demonstrate global leadership in human spaceflight and technology
development and is already providing the foundation for continuing
human spaceflight beyond LEO. Closer to home, NASA's ISS National
Laboratory partners can use the unique capabilities aboard Station to
enable investigations that may give them the edge in developing
valuable, high technology products and services for the global market.
Furthermore, the demand for access to the ISS enables the establishment
of robust U.S. commercial crew and cargo capabilities. Both of these
aspects of the ISS National Laboratory will help establish the U.S.
market for research in LEO beyond the current NASA requirements.
NASA is actively developing transition strategies for the
concurrent-and post-ISS LEO era and is engaged with the private sector
to foster both private demand and supply for LEO services. It is NASA's
intention to continue to foster the development of private industry
capabilities and private demand with a goal to end direct Federal
support for the ISS by 2025 when, NASA intends to be one of many
customers, including both private and other Government agencies, for
LEO platforms.
With this approach, NASA believes that the Nation's interest in
human spaceflight and LEO are protected and enhanced while relying on
private industry to provide the services and capabilities to meet
NASA's needs. This approach also offers the prospect of lower cost to
the Government by leveraging private industry capacity and innovation
through a commercial marketplace where NASA is one of many customers
and provides the basis for determining the long-term future of the ISS
Platform along with the ISS International Partners.
NASA looks forward to working with Congressional stakeholders along
with researchers, private industry and our ISS International Partners
to ensure that the U.S. maintains our human spaceflight leadership in
LEO while expanding human presence into the solar system and returning
benefits to U.S. taxpayers.
______
APPENDIX--Excerpt from NASA Transition Authorization Act of 2017 (P.L.
115-10)
SEC. 303. ISS Transition Plan
(c) REPORTS.--Section 50111 of title 51, United States Code, is
amended by adding at the end the following:
(1) IN GENERAL.--The Administrator, in coordination with the
ISS management entity (as defined in section 2 of the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration Transition Authorization
Act of 2017), ISS partners, the scientific user community, and
the commercial space sector, shall develop a plan to transition
in a step-wise approach from the current regime that relies
heavily on NASA sponsorship to a regime where NASA could be one
of many customers of a low-Earth orbit non-governmental human
space flight enterprise.
(2) REPORTS.--Not later than December 1, 2017, and biennially
thereafter until 2023, the Administrator shall submit to the
Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation of the
Senate and the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology of
the House of Representatives a report that includes--
(A) a description of the progress in achieving the
Administration's deep space human exploration
objectives on ISS and prospects for accomplishing
future mission requirements, space exploration
objectives, and other research objectives on future
commercially supplied low-Earth orbit platforms or
migration of those objectives to cis-lunar space;
(B) the steps NASA is taking and will take, including
demonstrations that could be conducted on the ISS, to
stimulate and facilitate commercial demand and supply
of products and services in low-Earth orbit;
(C) an identification of barriers preventing the
commercialization of low-Earth orbit, including issues
relating to policy, regulations, commercial
intellectual property, data, and confidentiality, that
could inhibit the use of the ISS as a commercial
incubator;
(D) the criteria for defining the ISS as a research
success;
(E) the criteria used to determine whether the ISS is
meeting the objective under section 301(b)(2) of the
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Transition Authorization Act of 2017; [Reference:
301(b)(2): ``to pursue a research program that advances
knowledge and provides other benefits to the Nation'']
(F) an assessment of whether the criteria under sub-
paragraphs (D) and (E) are consistent with the research
areas defined in, and recommendations and schedules
under, the current National Academies of Sciences,
Engineering, and Medicine Decadal Survey on Biological
and Physical Sciences in Space;
(G) any necessary contributions that ISS extension
would make to enabling execution of the human
exploration roadmap under section 432 of the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration Transition
Authorization Act of 2017;
(H) the cost estimates for operating the ISS to achieve
the criteria required under subparagraphs (D) and (E)
and the contributions identified under subparagraph
(G);
(I) the cost estimates for extending operations of the
ISS to 2024, 2028, and 2030;
(J) an evaluation of the feasible and preferred service
life of the ISS beyond the period described in section
503 of the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration Authorization Act of 2010 (42 U.S.C.
18353), through at least 2028, as a unique scientific,
commercial, and space exploration-related facility,
including--
(i) a general discussion of international
partner capabilities and prospects for
extending the partner-ship;
(ii) the cost associated with extending the
service life;
(iii) an assessment on the technical limiting
factors of the service life of the ISS,
including a list of critical components and
their expected service life and availability;
and
(iv) such other information as may be necessary
to fully describe the justification for and
feasibility of extending the service life of
the ISS, including the potential scientific or
technological benefits to the Federal
Government, public, or to academic or
commercial entities;
(K) an identification of the necessary actions and an
estimate of the costs to deorbit the ISS once it has
reached the end of its service life;
(L) the impact on deep space exploration capabilities,
including a crewed mission to Mars in the 2030s, if the
preferred service life of the ISS is extended beyond
2024 and NASA maintains a flat budget profile; and
(M) an evaluation of the functions, roles, and
responsibilities for management and operation of the
ISS and a determination of--
(i) those functions, roles, and
responsibilities the Federal Government should
retain during the lifecycle of the ISS;
(ii) those functions, roles, and
responsibilities that could be transferred to
the commercial space sector;
(iii) the metrics that would indicate the
commercial space sector's readiness and ability
to assume the functions, roles, and
responsibilities described in clause (ii); and
(iv) any necessary changes to any agreements or
other documents and the law to enable the
activities described in subparagraphs (A) and
(B).
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