[House Hearing, 115 Congress]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]
U.S. POLICY TOWARD THE BALTIC STATES
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HEARING
BEFORE THE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON EUROPE, EURASIA, AND EMERGING THREATS
OF THE
COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
ONE HUNDRED FIFTEENTH CONGRESS
FIRST SESSION
__________
MARCH 22, 2017
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Serial No. 115-11
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COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS
EDWARD R. ROYCE, California, Chairman
CHRISTOPHER H. SMITH, New Jersey ELIOT L. ENGEL, New York
ILEANA ROS-LEHTINEN, Florida BRAD SHERMAN, California
DANA ROHRABACHER, California GREGORY W. MEEKS, New York
STEVE CHABOT, Ohio ALBIO SIRES, New Jersey
JOE WILSON, South Carolina GERALD E. CONNOLLY, Virginia
MICHAEL T. McCAUL, Texas THEODORE E. DEUTCH, Florida
TED POE, Texas KAREN BASS, California
DARRELL E. ISSA, California WILLIAM R. KEATING, Massachusetts
TOM MARINO, Pennsylvania DAVID N. CICILLINE, Rhode Island
JEFF DUNCAN, South Carolina AMI BERA, California
MO BROOKS, Alabama LOIS FRANKEL, Florida
PAUL COOK, California TULSI GABBARD, Hawaii
SCOTT PERRY, Pennsylvania JOAQUIN CASTRO, Texas
RON DeSANTIS, Florida ROBIN L. KELLY, Illinois
MARK MEADOWS, North Carolina BRENDAN F. BOYLE, Pennsylvania
TED S. YOHO, Florida DINA TITUS, Nevada
ADAM KINZINGER, Illinois NORMA J. TORRES, California
LEE M. ZELDIN, New York BRADLEY SCOTT SCHNEIDER, Illinois
DANIEL M. DONOVAN, Jr., New York THOMAS R. SUOZZI, New York
F. JAMES SENSENBRENNER, Jr., ADRIANO ESPAILLAT, New York
Wisconsin TED LIEU, California
ANN WAGNER, Missouri
BRIAN J. MAST, Florida
FRANCIS ROONEY, Florida
BRIAN K. FITZPATRICK, Pennsylvania
THOMAS A. GARRETT, Jr., Virginia
Amy Porter, Chief of Staff Thomas Sheehy, Staff Director
Jason Steinbaum, Democratic Staff Director
------
Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats
DANA ROHRABACHER, California, Chairman
JOE WILSON, South Carolina GREGORY W. MEEKS, New York
TED POE, Texas BRAD SHERMAN, California
TOM MARINO, Pennsylvania ALBIO SIRES, New Jersey
JEFF DUNCAN, South Carolina WILLIAM R. KEATING, Massachusetts
F. JAMES SENSENBRENNER, Jr., DAVID N. CICILLINE, Rhode Island
Wisconsin ROBIN L. KELLY, Illinois
FRANCIS ROONEY, Florida
BRIAN K. FITZPATRICK, Pennsylvania
C O N T E N T S
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Page
WITNESSES
Mr. Paul A. Goble, principal professor, The Institute of World
Politics....................................................... 7
Ms. Lisa Sawyer Samp, senior fellow, International Security
Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies........ 13
Mr. Matthew Rojansky, director, Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson
Center......................................................... 23
Mr. Edward Lucas, senior vice president, Center for European
Policy Analysis................................................ 39
LETTERS, STATEMENTS, ETC., SUBMITTED FOR THE HEARING
Mr. Paul A. Goble: Prepared statement............................ 9
Ms. Lisa Sawyer Samp: Prepared statement......................... 15
Mr. Matthew Rojansky: Prepared statement......................... 26
Mr. Edward Lucas: Prepared statement............................. 42
APPENDIX
Hearing notice................................................... 64
Hearing minutes.................................................. 65
The Honorable Robin L. Kelly, a Representative in Congress from
the State of Illinois: Prepared statement...................... 66
Ms. Lisa Sawyer Samp: Material submitted for the record.......... 68
Mr. Matthew Rojansky: Material submitted for the record.......... 69
Questions submitted for the record by the Honorable Robin L.
Kelly and written responses from:
Mr. Edward Lucas............................................... 71
Ms. Lisa Sawyer Samp........................................... 72
U.S. POLICY TOWARD THE BALTIC STATES
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WEDNESDAY, MARCH 22, 2017
House of Representatives,
Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats,
Committee on Foreign Affairs,
Washington, DC.
The subcommittee met, pursuant to notice, at 2:08 p.m., in
room 2172, Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Dana Rohrabacher
(chairman of the subcommittee) presiding.
Mr. Rohrabacher. Good afternoon. I call the subcommittee to
order.
Today's hearing is focused on the Baltic region, U.S.
policy to the countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
My colleagues in Congress, other opinion makers, and policy
deciders often refer to the danger or conflict of this region.
The reality of what has been happening or not happening in this
corner of the world deserves a closer and, yes, a more
comprehensive examination. And that is what this hearing is all
about.
Our relationship with the Baltic people and governments has
probably lasted 100 years. We have stood by those populations
through the Soviet period in our firm support for the rights of
Baltic people to freely choose their own governance and not
have it dictated to them by the Nazis, the Communists, or
anybody else.
Those who know me know how strongly I believe in self-
determination. I am proud that American support helped these
three Baltic countries reestablish their independence as
communism collapsed in the Soviet Union. We stood by Estonia,
Latvia, and Lithuania in the past, and they can be confident
that we will remain the case in the future.
The citizens of the Baltics, like citizens in the Eastern
Europe, are not pieces on a board for foreign policy powers to
manipulate and to control. They are fully and equally sovereign
nations.
Within that context, the Baltic nations were permitted to
join NATO, which, as a consequence, has put troops that are a
part of a hostile military alliance positioned right on
Russia's border, a potential threat from Russia's perspective.
Whatever you think about Russia today, it behooves us to act
responsibly and to recognize that Russia too is a powerful
nation, whose leaders make decisions based on their country's
security and national interests. We do that, as well as every
other major power.
However, the question today remains: Has Russia stepped
over the bounds of acceptable behavior or has the U.S. been
overreacting?
Since 2014, there have been numerous NATO exercises in the
Baltics. And when we say that, that means we have had numerous
NATO military exercises within a relatively short distance from
St. Petersburg and Moscow and directly on the Russian border.
Some of our witnesses today will help explain what is happening
and what's been happening there in the Baltics and why. Knowing
the facts of what is happening certainly will help us determine
what America's policy toward this region should be, and what
should our policy be toward Russia as well. But establishing
the prerequisites for a peaceful world must remain a priority
for us and for the Russians and for the people in the Baltics.
One thought. We here should do our best not to confuse a
strong U.S. policy with a confrontational policy. What is the
goal of peace through strength? It is not just strength. It is
peace, and that we should never lose that perspective.
I welcome our witnesses this afternoon.
Without objection, your full written statements will be
made part of the record.
So if you could, we would like to ask you to make a 5-
minute presentation, and then we will move on to questions and
dialogue with the panel and with the members.
I would like to focus on a few key questions. I would like
to know about the specific acts that Russia is accused of doing
in the Baltics. I don't want intentions. What are the specific
acts that we should be most concerned about? And is our
response to these specific acts reasonable or is it
belligerent?
With that said, would ask my ranking member, Mr. Meeks, to
move forward with his opening statement.
Mr. Meeks. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and thank you for
calling today's hearing on U.S. policy regarding the Baltics.
It is a region we do not always get to examine in detail, but
do not often see in the news either.
Before my remarks, I would like to take a moment, though,
to remember the attacks in Brussels just 1 year ago. And,
today, we see a similar democracy being attacked again in
London. It is a reminder that democracy is continuous, it is
daily, and it is difficult. And we mourn those that may have
lost their lives in the attack in London today.
The Baltics hold a special place in modern history. I
admire their citizens for their peaceful, brave resistance to
the Soviet regime during the nonviolent Singing Revolution.
Soviet repression was not able to crush their cultures, their
people, or their thirst for freedom. A beautiful story that
one--and one that resonates here in the United States Congress.
The U.S. never recognized the Soviet occupation by force,
and upon deliberation, they continued normal diplomatic
relations. The same international laws compel us to never--
today, to never recognize the Kremlin's attempt to annex
Crimea.
In 1991, newly independent Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia,
and--had to mature quickly in a dangerous post-Communist space
where corruption, economic malice, and ethnic divisions were
always a threat. The scars from the transformation can be seen
and manipulated by outside actors today. Nevertheless, they are
free. They reformed. They are banging on the doors to Europe
saying, don't forget us. They are persistent. They joined NATO
and the EU in 2004, and continue to play integral roles in
both.
Estonia takes over the presidency of the council in July,
and I look forward to learning more about their stories on the
ground soon.
I am also a senior member of the Financial Services
Committee and remember seeing the Baltic States suffer
immensely during the financial crisis in 2008. Latvia saw its
GDP shrink over 25 percent in less than a year, for example.
The final result, a success story. Internal devaluation, belt
tightening within an agreement between society and the
government helped the small open economies turn the corner and
enjoy sustained growth. It was not easy, but the results are a
best practice example for dealing with the euro crisis.
The Baltic States are also leaders in the internet age. I
admire the Estonia movement, the dedicated push to bring the
country to the forefront in e-commerce and e-democracy, where
citizens can vote and register businesses online. I believe we
have a few e-residents in the crowd today.
However, this makes Estonia vulnerable to cyber attacks,
which they have experienced, most notably in 2008. The result:
Estonia is now home to the NATO Cyber Centre of Excellence,
where all NATO member states can share and sharpen their skills
in today's wide world.
The region is also a leader in the push toward energy
transformation and independence. Seeing and feeling the way the
Russian Government uses energy as a political tool is a direct
threat to the economies and populations in the Baltic States. A
striking example is Lithuanian LNG terminal independence, which
is only a part of a puzzle linking the region with a
competitive supply of energy. Projects like this help Lithuania
and Europe, both, from an energy and supply side and,
importantly, from a security angle.
Finally, the success of the three states is an important
symbol for those who need a united and free Europe. With NATO
support, it is an important symbol for the region as an example
of what can be achieved with membership in the transatlantic
organizations that the guarantee of justice and the rule of
law. Yet as the Baltic States continue to integrate and
flourish as democracies, they are under threat. I do not
believe that Russian tanks will roll across their borders, but
the threat from the Kremlin is often subtle, often denied, in
fact--or a post-fact world, but just as real and just as
powerful. Their tools corrupt our information sphere, our
economies, and use cynicism only to protect kleptocracies in
Moscow.
I believe we have an excellent panel here to examine these
threats and discuss the best responses. I believe we must
support the free press, much like we recently examined with
Chairman Royce of the full committee level. And I also would
like to examine the role, both symbolic and economic, of
personal sanctions, specifically, the Magnitsky Act, which goes
after corrupt individuals, not the Russian people.
I am also an adamant supporter of NATO and the EU's role in
values-based transatlantic relationship and how economies and
people are better off with it.
To conclude, I would like to submit two excellent reads for
the record that shaped what I am talking about today. President
Reagan's Proclamation 4948, which created Baltic Freedom Day,
and President Obama's speech in Tallinn in 2014. These
documents show the continued bipartisan support for the Baltic
States and the freedom and democracies that they bravely fought
to establish.
I yield back.
Mr. Rohrabacher. Well, thank you. And I sure appreciate you
putting some of my writing into the work.
And then we have Mr. Fitzpatrick from Pennsylvania----
Mr. Fitzpatrick. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Mr. Rohrabacher [continuing]. For 2 minutes.
Mr. Fitzpatrick. Yes, sir.
The fall of the USSR in 1991 ushered in a new era of
freedom for many former Soviet Republics who had struggled for
decades to maintain and express their national identities. The
Baltic States of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are prime
examples of the demise of the Soviet Union and how the demise
of the Soviet Union led to a freer and more independent Europe.
After gaining their independence in the summer of 1991, the
Baltic States began to craft their own economies, their own
militaries, and even more importantly, their own identities.
This is something that we as Americans should all appreciate.
The Baltic States also desire to become part of the
integrated global community by becoming both members of NATO as
well as the European Union. However, in recent years, the
Russian bear has once again reared its ugly head. We first saw
this in 2008 when the Russian army invaded its fiercely
independent southern neighbor, Georgia. In a quick but brutal
war, the Russians showed what lengths they were willing to go
in order to exert their dominance over their newly independent
neighbors.
Likewise, in 2014, Vladimir Putin covertly moved Russian
military forces into the Crimean region, quickly seizing it.
Subsequent that year, the Russian-backed insurgency began to
take hold of the eastern Donbass region in the Ukraine,
culminating in the shoot-down of a Malaysian Airlines flight
under very suspicious circumstances, this all being done with
limited intervention from previous administrations;
As we look forward, it is imperative that we maintain our
relationship with critical allies in the Baltic States. We must
reassert America's commitment to prevent the rise of another
Soviet block where a country's leaders are beholding to Moscow
and not their own people.
I yield back.
Mr. Rohrabacher. And now Brad.
All right, Brad, you are first.
Mr. Sherman. Okay. I want to associate myself with the
comments of the ranking member recognizing the people of
Belgium and the people of the United Kingdom and what they have
suffered, and his praise for the Baltic States.
The foreign policy establishment has spoken. Everything
that Putin does is wrong and, therefore, anything done by
anyone in conflict with Putin must be right. I will spend a few
minutes questioning that second assumption. The Baltic States
are, indeed, praiseworthy, but they can and should do better.
I have been in this room for 20 years, and for most of that
time, the foreign policy establishment said anyone who focused
on burden sharing was ignorant or worse. Now, they have caved
in on that and, instead, clung to this 2 percent standard. It
should be a 4 percent standard. America spends over 4 percent
of our GDP on our military. The foreign policy establishment
deliberately understates that by ignoring the cost of the
veterans benefits which, after all, are compensation we provide
our soldiers and sailors.
Unfortunately, only one of the Baltic States even meets the
2 percent requirement, and the others--one other is saying they
will get to it eventually, but that leaves their armaments way
too low a level because, for decades, they have been
underspending. Baltic States should at least match our 4
percent level and make up for the armaments they don't have
because they've deliberately underspent for decades.
NATO is important. Only one NATO country has been attacked
during NATO, and that is the United States. We had support in
Afghanistan. The support from the Baltic States was there, but
incredibly modest. In contrast, the Baltic States have asked us
for an incredibly robust response to the national security
threats that they face, including, as the chairman points out,
deploying American soldiers by the thousands on the Russian
border.
In the United Nations, I have been disappointed with the
Baltic States support for us, voting against us again and again
and again in the general assembly, though I support the recent
support of two of the Baltic States in one UNESCO vote.
And, finally, we need to urge the Baltic States to treat
the Russian minorities with as much respect as possible and
more respect than maybe popular in their own political--among
their own people, especially the Estonian issue with so many
citizens of Estonia or residents of Estonia not be--having
Estonian passports, not being recognized as citizens. I would
hope that there would be a system that would allow dual
citizenship and allow these folks to have whatever rights
Russia chooses to grant them, but to have all the rights of
Estonian citizens.
There are many arguments on both sides as to how the
Russian-speaking minority should be treated, but since this
could be a flashpoint for a major war, I would hope the Baltic
States would err on the side of treating their Russian-speaking
minority well.
And I yield back.
Mr. Rohrabacher. Thank you, Mr. Sherman.
And now, Mr. Cicilline.
Mr. Cicilline. Thank you, Chairman Rohrabacher and Ranking
Member Meeks for calling this hearing today and to the
witnesses for being here to discuss a region that is vital to
America's strategic national security interests.
Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are located at Russia's
doorstep and, in many ways, are at the forefront in the
increasing tensions in Eastern Europe. Each of these states
serves as an example of the ability of the people to rise out
of the chaos of the fall of the Soviet Union, embrace democracy
and free markets, and thrive.
Formerly members of the Warsaw Pact, as part of the Soviet
Union today, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are vital members
of NATO. And perhaps no countries face a graver challenge from
the renewed aggression of Putin's Russia. The invasions of
Georgia and Ukraine have caused many within the Baltics to fear
for their own sovereignty as Putin attempts to delegitimize
states that have a large Russian-speaking population. And that
is why it is so important that the United States not waiver in
our commitment to the NATO alliance and to our Baltic friends
to ensure that the ties we have forged remain strong in the
face of increased pressure.
I look forward to hearing from our witnesses today. And I
want to apologize in advance, we have a Judiciary Committee
markup, so I will be in and out. But I'm anxious to hear what
we can do to reinforce and strengthen our NATO commitments and
to continue the strong relationships the United States has
built with our Baltic friends. I thank you.
And I yield back, Mr. Chairman.
Mr. Rohrabacher. Well, thank you very much.
And I would like to thank the witnesses for joining us
today. I will introduce all of you, and then we will proceed.
First, we have Paul Goble, who is a long-time expert in
minority nationalities and the former Soviet Union. He has had
a distinguished career working at various times for the United
States Government, the State Department, as well as Radio Free
Europe. He has been honored by the governments of all three
Baltic republics for his efforts to promote their independence.
Lisa Sawyer Samp or Sap?
Ms. Samp. Samp.
Mr. Rohrabacher. Samp. Okay. A senior fellow in the
Internation Security Program at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies. She is an expert on NATO and European
defense strategies. And before joining CSIS, she was in a
previous role as director for NATO and European Strategic
Affairs on the National Security Council staff.
We have Matthew Rojansky. He is the director of the Kennan
Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center. He is a leading expert
on U.S.-Russian relations and an adjunct professor at Johns
Hopkins. He serves as U.S. executive secretary for the
Dartmouth Conference which is a two-track of the Russian-U.S.
conflict resolution initiative. I hope I got that exactly
right, but you get the picture.
Mr. Edward Lucas is a senior editor for The Economist. And
I might add, I read that magazine all the time. I think it is,
frankly, the only magazine I do read all the time. He is a
senior vice president at the Center for European Policy
Analysis. He has been observing and writing about developments
in Eastern Europe and that part of the world for over 20 years.
So we are very pleased to have you and grateful to have you
with us. So, as I say, if you could proceed with 5-minute
opening statements or you could add to that, just for the
record, and then we will proceed with questions from the
members.
Mr. Goble.
STATEMENT OF MR. PAUL A. GOBLE, PRINCIPAL PROFESSOR, THE
INSTITUTE OF WORLD POLITICS
Mr. Goble. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Thank you for calling
this hearing on this most important topic and for giving me an
opportunity to appear.
I would like to dedicate my remarks to the late Aleksander
Einseln, the Estonian-American colonel, who died about 10 days
ago, who went to Estonia and became the commander of the
Estonian Defence Forces and played a key role in transforming
those forces into ones that could be integrated into the
Western alliance.
It is an ancient observation that old generals always
prepare to fight the last war, but we don't always think about
what that means. It often means that they look for the same
kind of threat that happened in the past and try to counter it,
or not seeing it, decide there isn't any threat at all, and
that they fail to prepare for combating new threats, because
the means they have adopted in the past to counter the threats
of the past are no longer the ones that are most important.
I do not believe, as long as Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania
are a members of the western alliance, that any Russian
Government will send its tanks over the eastern borders of
those countries. I think that is almost unthinkable because I
think it is almost certainly suicidal.
Having said that, however, I believe there is a very real
Russian threat that flows both from the purposes that Mr. Putin
has announced for his government going back more than a decade
and the means he has chosen to use to pursue those purposes.
On the one hand, Mr. Putin has clearly signaled that the
three--that his foreign policy is driven by a desire to
challenge the three bedrock principles of the international
system that the United States took the lead in forming in the
20th century. First, the 1919 settlement that declared that the
Arab empires is over. He wants to restore one. Second, the
settlement of 1945, which held that citizenship is more
important than ethnicity. That is what we fought World War II
about when the Germans thought that ethnicity was more
important than citizenship. And 1991, when the international
community accepted the demise of the USSR as something that was
irreversible.
But the other aspect of the Russian threat is also serious,
and that is that Mr. Putin has chosen to use the strategies of
subversion rather than the strategies of open force. Far more
often we have seen actions by the Russian Government that are
those of intelligence services rather than those of defense
ministries. What that means is if you are looking for actions
by the military, you won't find them, but if you are looking at
what goes on in banks, in government offices, in propaganda
outlets, they are very much there.
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have particular reasons for
being concerned about both Mr. Putin's goals--if any of those
are realized, they would be at risk--and his tactical approach
because of their size and their propinquity to Russia. We in
the United States tend to forget how small the Baltic countries
are, how much they suffered under various aspects of Russian
rule, and how much they have depended on the United States.
For Putin, those three realities have a contradictory
message. On the one hand, they mean that Mr. Putin is certainly
aware that any military move against the Baltic countries would
be resisted by the United States as part of its NATO alliance
and, second, it means that Mr. Putin has an interest in
challenging the West precisely there as a way of indicating
that the West is more of a paper tiger than the West believes.
I believe that what we need to do in order to promote
Baltic security has less to do with the expansion of NATO
presence there, although I welcome that presence, than it does
with doing other things. And I would like to suggest three of
what would be a very large list.
First, as several of the members have pointed out, we need
to encourage all three countries to complete the integration of
ethnic minorities in their countries, that the progress that
has been made is truly amazing. Indeed, last week, it was
announced that there are 4,000 ethnic Russians in Estonia who
now declare that Estonian is their native language, which is--
would have been unthinkable a decade ago. That is an impressive
achievement. Second, we need to promote transparency of all
economic and political activities, banking, the communication
sector. And, third, we need to involve Estonians, Latvians,
Lithuanians in as many conversations as possible with Russian
counterparts.
There are people in the West who are not interested in
pushing that, who prefer to see the question of Russian power
as being one that there is only a military response to. But, in
fact, it is in these other areas that the fight is going to be
won or lost, and, therefore, we should be spending far more
time developing strategies in those areas than in others.
Thank you very much.
[The prepared statement of Mr. Goble follows:]
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Mr. Rohrabacher. Ms. Samp, you may go right ahead.
STATEMENT OF MS. LISA SAWYER SAMP, SENIOR FELLOW, INTERNATIONAL
SECURITY PROGRAM, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL
STUDIES
Ms. Samp. Mr. Chairman, Ranking Member Meeks, and
distinguished members of the subcommittee, good afternoon.
I would like to make just two points regarding the current
security situation in the Baltic States. My first point is
foundational to this discussion. Russia is a threat. Russia is
a threat to the Baltic States and, more broadly, to the post-
World War II international order.
In the Baltics, Russia has conducted cyber attacks,
crossborder kidnappings, and unannounced snap exercises with up
to 80,000 troops just across the border. It has also violated
their sovereign airspace, issued hostile statements, and filled
their airwaves with propaganda.
For an accurate threat picture, though, this behavior must
be considered in the context of what Moscow has done and is
doing beyond the Baltics. In addition to meddling in foreign
elections, violating arms control agreements, and nuclear saber
rattlings, Putin's bullying has escalated to the use of
military force in Georgia, Ukraine, and Syria.
In Ukraine, he has annexed Crimea and continues to sow
instability and violence in the country's east. Thousands have
died and over a million have been displayed. Let us also please
not forget about the 298 civilians who were killed when a
Russian-provided missile brought down a civilian airliner, or
about the thousands of civilians killed by indiscriminate
Russian bombs in Syria.
Russia's actions reflect an effective blending of both
conventional and unconventional tactics. These tactics are
designed to circumvent U.S. and NATO redlines, confuse
traditional response options, and use the virtues of the West
against it.
Putin likely doesn't want a war with the West, but he is
finding he can get a lot done without one. For that reason, he
has no intention of stopping now. He is becoming more
emboldened over time and growing increasingly comfortable
taking risks. What was once primarily an eastern-flank
challenge is now hitting closer to home. Moscow may no longer
be motivated by a Communist ideology that sees it trying to
overthrow democracies and replace them with dictatorships. But
that does not mean Russia isn't still a threat to our democracy
and our institutions.
The difference today is that instead of offering an
alternative, Russia is satisfied to create chaos and sow
instability. It wants to knock the United States down a peg and
break Western unity so we can't call shots Russia doesn't like
or hold it accountable to the rule of law.
The system, though, that Russia is seeking to undermine has
served the United States well over the past 70 years. And
without it, the world would undoubtedly be poorer, less free,
and less safe. Russia may just be looking out for what it
considers to be in its national interests, but then we need to
do the same, and that entails pushing back to protect
ourselves, our allies, and the international order.
This brings me to my second point, which is that the steps
taken by the United States and NATO to bolster security in the
region are prudent and are what is minimally required. They are
neither hostile nor provocative.
While Russia has not resorted to military force in the
Baltics, and while its ever doing remains extremely unlikely,
the possibility cannot be discounted completely. To manage this
risk, the United States and NATO have taken steps, as described
in my written testimony, to establish a credible deterrence.
Far from being provocative, these steps are designed to prevent
war and to make clear the costs that would be entailed with any
aggression. It may, in fact, be more provocative to do nothing.
To invite Russian opportunism by baiting it would weak
defenses.
While it is important to debate what constitutes credible
deterrence and what amounts to unhelpful provocation, one can
also err in being too cautious, lending credence to Russia's
reflexive protests and false indignation. I would argue there
exists a wide gulf between the steps that have been taken to
date and the steps that could be taken in the future to
increase the West's leverage without sparking a conflict or
even coming close.
Step back and recall, for example, that despite recent
troop increases, the U.S. combat presence in Europe remains a
full brigade-strength below what it was in 2012, prior to
renewed tensions with Russia, and that NATO's largest exercise
conducted since the end of the Cold War included about 30,000
troops. By contrast, Russia's Zapad exercise planned for later
this year may reach up to 200,000. Thus, the idea that holding
relatively moderately sized exercises on alliance territory
constitutes provocation seems wildly unfair.
NATO is also not the ones flying with its transponders off,
failing to announce exercises in accordance with the Vienna
document, and buzzing ships in the Black and Baltic Seas. While
it is also fair to consider the West's role in contributing to
the current standoff with Russia, suggesting moral
equivalencies or assigning blame does not solve the current
problem. It neither changes how the West or Russia view their
security interests nor makes what we seek to preserve any less
valid.
To conclude, none of this means we cannot still cooperate
with Russia where it is in our interest, but rushing to make
deals with Moscow to secure what would amount to short-term
gains may well end up sacrificing more fundamental goals.
Thank you.
[The prepared statement of Ms. Samp follows:]
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Mr. Rohrabacher. Thank you very much.
And, Mr. Rojansky.
STATEMENT OF MR. MATTHEW ROJANSKY, DIRECTOR, KENNAN INSTITUTE,
WOODROW WILSON CENTER
Mr. Rojansky. Yes. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman----
Mr. Rohrabacher. But you need to turn your mike on.
Mr. Rojansky. Right. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman, Mr.
Meeks. I am enormously grateful to have this opportunity. And I
have got to do this, the disclaimer: Personal views only, not
those of the Wilson Center, which, of course, is a
congressionally chartered memorial to President Wilson. So we
are very grateful that we can fulfill our public interest
mission and participate in here.
You know, I think--I understood your question, Mr.
Chairman, about Russia's specific acts rather than just sort of
vague general ideas of a threat and the reasonableness of
American response as soliciting an analysis of how the Russians
are thinking and why. What do they intend, and is there
evidence for their intent?
And so I would like to tackle that problem as directly as I
can, and I break it down into three parts. Any time that I
think about a threat, I try to break it down into motive,
capability, and opportunity. So those are the three parts I
want to tackle in that order.
In terms of motive, let's look at what Russia's actions
have been against other states to try to discern a motive, vis-
a-vis, in particular, its neighborhood or what Russians call
the near abroad. Generally speaking, Russians do not view other
countries in the near abroad as fully sovereign. Certainly, not
in the way they see themselves or the United States. Obviously,
we know that President Medvedev talked about a sphere of
privileged influence; the Russians have supported separatists
in Moldova, in Georgia; they have invaded Ukraine. This is well
known.
In terms of specific actions against the Baltic States,
famously in 2007, around the Bronze Soldier conflict, they
intervened with cyber attacks against Estonia. In 2014, they
abducted Eston Kohver, an Estonian security agent from the
border, essentially kidnapped him. In Latvia, they have
mobilized ethnic Russian voters, stirred up antigovernment
sentiment in Latgallia. In Lithuania, they have mounted an
information war disparaging living standards for Lithuanians
and encouraging them to move to Kaliningrad, a neighboring
exclave of Russia. And, of course, there's been sophisticated
social media campaigns backing all of these things up.
Now, what do Russians want in the Baltic States? Basic
motivation. Certainly, they fear the American presence there,
what it may lead to, but they like to maintain, basically,
stable political and economic ties. Now, much is made of the
Russian-speaking population. It is a tricky issue. Who is an
ethnic Russian? Who is a Russian speaker? In terms of
percentages, we may be dealing with somewhere between 30 and 36
percent in Latvia, 25 to 28 percent in Estonia, 5 to 8 percent
in Lithuania, depending on how you define those numbers.
Sometimes they are concentrated, like in Narva and eastern
Estonia; sometimes they are very well integrated, like in the
city of Riga, the capital of Latvia.
Now, Putin talks about the Russian world within which these
people would certainly be included as being a major priority
for Russian foreign policy and being the largest diaspora in
Europe. He claims 25 million Russians left outside the borders
of The Russian Federation.
And in 2014, in a speech in Riga, Russia's commissioner for
human rights, Konstantin Dolgov, said: It has to be stated with
sadness that a huge number of our compatriots abroad, whole
segments of the Russian world, continue to face serious
problems securing their rights and lawful interests. We will
not tolerate the creeping offensive against the Russian
language that we are seeing in the Baltics.
So does Russia intend to use force in the Baltics?
Interestingly, most Russian sources say, no, they don't. Dmitri
Trenin says Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland are safe,
even if they don't feel that way. The Kremlin has no interest
in risking nuclear war by attacking a member state, and the
sphere of Russian control to which Putin aspires certainly
excludes these countries.
Now, Russians would have plenty of reasons to make these
claims, but it may be that they have other motives and
intentions in being threatening toward the Baltic States, like
signaling to other post-Soviet countries. In particular,
Belarus, Kazakhstan, part of the Eurasian core countries on
Russia's borders. And most military deployments, if you look at
Russian military deployments, are about exerting control and
dominance over Ukraine.
Capability--I will keep this very short. Russia's military
capability is stronger than it was, for sure. It comes nowhere
close to what the United States can feel, much less the NATO
alliance. And one of the challenges in assessing Russia's
actual capability is the bread-and-toast problem, vis-a-vis,
Russian troops that are simply always going to be in and around
St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad versus troops that are there for
the specific reason of sort of either masking or preparing for
an attack on the Baltic States.
But there are other capabilities of concern, nonmilitary
capabilities. And, again, this comes back to the issue of
Russian speakers. Russian television has been called a couch
potato's dream, an attractive, even mesmerizing mix of frothy
morning shows, high-decibel discussion shows, tear jerker
serials and song contests peppered with news bulletins and
current events shows that tow the Kremlin line. So you get the
idea that Russian broadcasting creates a very sophisticated
media milieu within which people are persuaded by the Russian
world view.
But be careful not to generalize here. At the end of the
day, Russian speakers, ethnic Russians in the Baltic States,
they are people. Many of them don't necessarily like Mr. Putin,
many of them have no desire to abandon their EU citizenship,
which they have, thanks to being citizens of the Baltic States,
and many of them tune out from politics altogether.
The last point--and I will end quickly here--on opportunity
there is both good news and bad news. The good news is that Mr.
Goble is exactly right. The Russians do not seek to provoke a
conflict with the nuclear armed alliance in NATO, and as long
as the Baltic States are NATO members, that is going to be the
case. The bad news is that a crisis is still absolutely
possible. A crisis is possible. Either imagine a scenario
within which this ethic Russian or Russian language issue is
provoked, even completely made up and then blown out of
proportion by Russian media, there is a firm response from
local authorities, and that results in a crisis. And the other
possible crisis here is a military crisis. This so-called heavy
metal diplomacy, a Russian aircraft coming close to an American
ship or another NATO flag vessel.
So definitely, in terms of motive, capability, and
opportunity, we are looking at a real threat, a real set of
concerns, but it is important to see it in context. Thank you.
[The prepared statement of Mr. Rojansky follows:]
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Mr. Rohrabacher. In context. That is good. We will be
discussing that as we get into the questions and answers.
And, finally, Mr. Lucas, you may proceed.
STATEMENT OF MR. EDWARD LUCAS, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, CENTER
FOR EUROPEAN POLICY ANALYSIS
Mr. Lucas. Chairman Rohrabacher, Ranking Member Meeks, and
distinguished members, it is an honor and privilege to come
here and give testimony to this committee on this vitally
important subject.
I have been dealing with this issue since the early 1980s.
My message is very straightforward and is contained in my
written testimony. I will now go on to answer some of the
questions that have come up in the discussion already.
Russia is a revisionist power. It doesn't like the way the
world is at the moment. It wants to change it. It has the means
to do this if we don't keep ourselves united and strong. So
far, it is doing really well, much better than many people
would have suspected. If you had been thinking 10, 15 years ago
that we would be discussing a threat from Russia of the kind we
are discussing now, people would have thought that was crazy.
It is going to get worse before it gets better.
You mentioned in your opening remarks, Mr. Chairman, that
we created a hostile military alliance stretching to Russia's
border and put troops there, and the Russians don't like that.
I think it is worth reminding ourselves why they are there. Why
did this change? Why has this happened? And, of course, during
the 1990s, we didn't have NATO membership for the Baltic
States, and we expanded it for a reason. We expanded it because
these countries were scared, and there was enough going on that
they were right to be scared. After 2004, many people said,
that is it, job done. Russia will not touch a NATO member, and
there is no reason to worry about it anymore. We had no plans,
no contingency plans for defending the Baltic States. We had no
troop deployments there. We had no exercises there.
That would have been a stable situation, but Russia
provoked, undermined, and subverted the Baltic States, notably
in the Bronze Soldier attack, but in many other things as well.
And so after 2008, the war in Georgia, President Obama said we
need contingency plans. We developed a plan, and then we
increased them. There was a huge jolt which came with the 2009
Zapad exercises, which practiced the invasion and occupation of
the Baltic States and finished off with a dummy nuclear attack
on Warsaw. That was a real wake-up call to the West.
Russia tends to do the things that it rehearses, and
everything we have done, in a much smaller scale, since then, I
think has been a response to Russia raising the ante. Russia is
testing our will in the Baltic States. And the best way of
guaranteeing that we keep the peace that we have is by
responding to that with calmness and firmness.
You asked for specific examples. Well, I think the military
exercise and, particularly, terrifying snap exercises, which
happen at no notice and involve large numbers of troops
hurdling toward the border when we have no idea, really, what
is going on. And perhaps the biggest example, I would also
mention the role of money in Baltic politics. And if you read
the reports of the Estonian and Lithuanian security agencies,
which are available on the internet, they list in chilling
detail the things that Russia is doing inside those countries.
I would also like to respond to the idea that it is a big
ask from the Baltic States. They want a lot from America. Well,
that is true. But you are not just defending them, you are
defending the whole international order. And if you are worried
about America's leadership in the world and you are worried
about America's leadership in Asia and you are worried about
whether your allies take you seriously, well, the Baltics is
high noon. That is where it starts. If you can't defend the
Baltic States, your treaty allies, then you have no credibility
in other parts of the world. So you are defending the whole
rules-based order, not just the Baltic States.
And, finally, I would just point out that the Baltic States
are not just consumers of security; they are also providers.
They were warning us about this 20 years ago when we weren't
listening. They see things that we don't see. They can go to
places that we don't go. They understand things that we don't
understand. And we, in my country in Britain, your country in
the United States, and other NATO allies, we are eagerly and
greedily lapping up some of this expertise, some of these
capabilities they have in cyber, in intelligence, and other
things, which fill gaps, stuff that we neglected, capabilities
that we got rid of in the past 20 or 30 years because we
thought we would never need them again. So they contribute a
lot to us.
What should we do? Well, first of all, we have got to
understand that Russia is trying to change the rules and be
clear that we want to defend that rules-based order. It is
worth it. It brings peace, it brings prosperity, it brings
freedom. It really matters.
We need to raise the cost to Mr. Putin of his attacks, and
I strongly endorse the point about raising visa sanctions on
the Russian elite. We have no quarrel with the people of
Russia. They suffer from this regime just as much as anybody
else does, if not more. But we should say to those top 1,000,
10,000 people in Russia, if you preach anti-Westernism, if you
say that the West is decadent, the fount of all evil,
imperialist, horrible, backward, and so on, well, you can't
then expect to launder money in the West. You can't expect to
send your kids here to be educated. You can't send your
families here for medical treatment. You can't come here on
holiday. We can do that. That is not a quarrel with the Russian
people. That is targeting the sanctions on the elite.
And, finally, I think we just need to do a bit more on
deterrence. What NATO has done in the Baltics is very small. It
is 1/10th, 1/20th of what Russia has done. It is already a
game-changer. But just having a few more American soldiers in
the Baltics would make a very big difference, because Russia
takes you really seriously.
And I will finish off by saying, we should look at the
Baltic States like West Berlin. There are many things in West
Berlin we didn't like during the Cold War. I know you, Chairman
Rohrabacher, were a regular visitor there, and it was
tremendously important symbolically for us. We didn't try and
defend West Berlin militarily as West Berlin. We didn't put a
Maginot line on West Berlin, anymore we should put a Maginot
line down the Baltics. We said, this is where it stops. This is
the furthest outpost of the West. And by defending West Berlin,
we defend every member of the Western alliance, and we should
look at the Baltic States in the same way.
Thank you, sir.
[The prepared statement of Mr. Lucas follows:]
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Mr. Rohrabacher. Well, thank you very much.
And I see we are on our own.
Mr. Meeks. Me and you, baby.
Mr. Rohrabacher. And me and you, baby.
Let me start out by saying that I apologize that this is
not a balanced panel. You all have basically the same message,
and we should have had at least one person to present the other
perspective, and we did not. And I am concerned about that.
Well, I am here. There is only so much as to what I can do
on my own. Okay.
Let me first apologize about that, because I don't believe
this is a balanced panel. I mean, I just have to say, you all
are intellectuals. You all are good sources of information, but
we need to juxtapose your arguments with someone else, and we
didn't do it, and so we failed.
And maybe we will have another hearing where the points
that you have made, you could have two or three here, and maybe
someone on the other side who could refute some of the points
that have been made.
So with that said, let me just go into some questions that
will be provocative questions, anyway.
I did ask for a specific military aggression and acts. I
didn't seem to get any, frankly. I hear about the amassing of
300,000 troops in Russian territory, in Russia, is an act of an
aggression against their neighboring countries. But amassing
NATO troops and tanks in their neighboring countries, on their
border is not an aggression. Talk about a double standard. I
would think that that is a major double standard.
I will have to say that when my friend, my fellow
journalist, a former journalist as I am, that I believe that
the idea of declaring the Baltics like to be similar to Berlin
demonstrates a basic perceptional problem of why we are heading
in the wrong direction. The Cold War is over. As long as we are
thinking about Russia as it was during that time period, and
others, and Berlin, West Berlin, as being threatened, as it was
at that time, in a government that was controlled by the
Communist Party, that was an ideological-based party that
wanted to create Marxist, atheist dictatorships throughout the
world, replace democracies with Marxist dictatorships. That is
not the world we live in today, and it is not the Russia.
Russia is different than what it was.
Now, how different? Let me just ask for some specific
things in the Baltics. I know there was a cyber attack, which
someone brought up; I would like to ask about that cyber attack
in Estonia, if you know about this. I am sure you all should.
There was a cyber attack when the Russians and the Estonians
got into a personality match when the Estonians said, we are
going to take down the statue that is dedicated to the Russian
soldiers who gave their lives in liberating the Baltics from
the Nazis. And at that point, there was a massive cyber attack,
which really was very extensive, and it was a heavy duty attack
by Russia on Estonia.
How long ago did that happen? When was it? What year was
that? When was it?
Mr. Lucas. 2007, sir.
Mr. Rohrabacher. 2007. And since that time, have there been
any attacks of that magnitude in the Baltics? Any other attacks
since 2007?
Now, I will tell you, we have heard over and over and over
again about the incredible cyber attacks, and that was 2007. I
am not excusing the fact somebody is insulting. France insulted
us a number of times, and we didn't get so angry at them that
we punished them. There are all sorts of stories about that.
We are talking that their 300,000 troops are a threat, but
our NATO 30,000 aren't. Is the panel aware that we are part of
those NATO exercises and there has been a number of them now.
Part of that has been B-52 flights headed from England and then
turning around at the Russian border? Does anyone here not
considered that a provocative act?
Ms. Samp. I do not.
Mr. Rohrabacher. You do not. Okay. So you think a nuclear
weapons delivery system aimed at the heart of Russia and then
turning around right on the border is not hostile and
provocative?
Ms. Samp. It might be if they weren't doing the same thing
to us. They are flying bear and blackjack bombers off the coast
of Alaska around the outer edges of Europe. So the flights are
a wash----
Mr. Rohrabacher. It is not the same. Let me just note. What
you are saying is ridiculous. It is not the same as aiming a
flight of bombers into the capital areas, meaning St.
Petersburg in Moscow, versus flying along a coast. Everybody
has a right to fly along someone's coast. Now, let me ask you
this: Are there also ships as part of those exercises that we
had or do we have any nuclear weapons capability of carrying
ships that were part of that? Any of you know that? Well, yes,
there were.
Tell me, if we actually are bringing nuclear weapons
delivery systems to the Russian border, you don't believe that
is provocative. Does anyone else here agree with that?
Yes, go right ahead.
Mr. Lucas. Sir, can I respond to that? I think one has to
look at this in over a period of, say, 10 years, say we start
in 2004, when we have expanded NATO and we have built quite
good relations with Russia through the NATO-Russia Founding Act
and the NATO-Russia Council. Things have deteriorated since
then. But in each case, the deterioration started with actions
on the Russian side, and we followed by much smaller actions on
ours.
Now, you mentioned nuclear weapons, and it is an extremely
important point. Russia has a very large arsenal of so-called
tactical nuclear weapons, and these are integrated into its
military doctrine and integrated into its exercises. And they
practice getting these nuclear artillery shells, depth charges,
short-range weapons out of the bunkers onto delivery systems.
And they do this again and again and again.
We in the West have almost given up on tactical nuclear
arms. We have very few. Those that we have are kept a very long
way away from the Baltic States, chiefly in bunkers in the
Netherlands. Our exercises do not involve their use.
It is a specific part of Russian military doctrine to do
what they call escalate to de-escalate, which means if they
think they are losing a conventional war, they will go nuclear.
They make no secret about that. And they talk about these
nuclear weapons all the time in a way that the neighbors find
terrifying, not just the NATO members. They say this to the
Finns and to the Swedes.
You mentioned B-52 flights. I don't know if you are aware
of what happened on Good Friday 2014, I think it was, when a
Russian flight carried out a dummy attack on Stockholm and on
another very important military target in Sweden at a time when
the Swedish Air Force had taken the weekend off because it was
Easter. They had to scramble Danish fighters from Lithuania to
intercept these Russians.
In my country----
Mr. Rohrabacher. So the Russian----
Mr. Lucas. May I just finish?
Mr. Rohrabacher [continuing]. In the incident you are
describing, did they actually penetrate----
Mr. Lucas. No. They turned around at the last minute. And
we also had a similar event in--and if you penetrate someone--
--
Mr. Rohrabacher. So they turned around at the last moment.
You remember that, and you condemn that, but you don't condemn
U.S. B-52 bombers and nuclear weapons carrying ships going
right to the Russian border?
Mr. Lucas. Understand that the Russians are trying to make
us think that we have no nuclear deterrence. And they have
said, and they say privately and publicly, they don't believe
that NATO deterrence works. And so long as NATO is a nuclear
alliance, we have to show that we are nuclear capable. Now, we
have many gaps on the escalation----
Mr. Rohrabacher. Sir, I just have to tell you that I
believe it demonstrates a double standard that will give the
Russians a message that we are judging our behavior differently
than we are judging yours.
Mr. Lucas. Can I respond to that, sir?
Mr. Rohrabacher. Yes. Okay. I am sorry we don't have other
witnesses here to make these points, and I am going to have to
give it to him. But I will let you answer that, and then we
have to go on----
Mr. Lucas. I just want to respond to your point about West
Berlin, sir.
Mr. Rohrabacher. Yes.
Mr. Lucas. You said the Cold War is over. It is true, the
old Cold War is over. But as I said in my opening remarks,
Russia is trying to change the rules. Russia doesn't like the
way the world operates at the moment. It doesn't like American
leadership. It doesn't like the Atlantic alliance. It doesn't
like multilateral rules-based organizations by the EU, and that
is a threat. It is not the same as the Soviet Union. It is much
weaker. But the symbolic bastion of the West is the Baltic
States, because they are militarily vulnerable.
Mr. Rohrabacher. Okay.
Mr. Lucas. And in that sense, I think it is very similar to
West Berlin.
Mr. Rohrabacher. Well, let me just note that Great Britain
seems not to like the EU either. Do they? Great Britain decided
they might not like that as well.
And, yeah, the institutions that were created during the
Cold War are beginning to, not evaporate, but to readjust, and
some of them will disappear, some of them will remain strong,
but this isn't the Cold War.
Let me just remind you, you are looking at the ultimate
cold warrior here. I mean, this is not some guy who, you know,
did not believe we should confront the Soviet Union. And I was
deeply involved with that for 20 years of my life, actually, 30
years of my life.
Well, anyway, we will have a second round of questions,
even though it is just the two of us.
Mr. Rojansky. Mr. Chairman, would it be possible before you
move on to just add something on the----
Mr. Rohrabacher. With permission from my----
Mr. Meeks. Yeah. I was going to give you--okay.
Mr. Rojansky. I appreciate that. I just feel badly, because
I think I was invited to try to elucidate Russian thinking and
the conclusion of much of my research into Russian analysis and
the statements of Russian leaders and the disposition of
Russian forces has been that while there are real causes for
concern--and that is why I broke it into that three-part
analysis of motive, capability, and opportunity--that,
nonetheless, we are not facing an acute, immediate Russian
military threat to the Baltic States. And there are two
principal reasons for that on the military side, speaking about
nuclear deterrence.
One is that nuclear deterrence works. And the Russian
sources I looked at were very clear that that is a big part of
the reason why they wouldn't, under any circumstances, so
assume plenty of other motives, potentially, to intervene in
the Baltic States. The fact that you are talking about
intervening against members of a nuclear armed alliance makes
that--I mean, the Russian sources are very clear, they have no
desire to provoke that, and there are certainly plenty of
others targets that would be more desirable.
The second issue, and I made this point very quickly
before, and I do encourage you to take a look at my written
remarks as well, is this issue of disposition of location, that
even if kind of politically and psychologically the Baltic
States may have a similar resonance to West Berlin today, they
are in a different spot on the map. They are just a couple of
100 kilometers away from St. Petersburg. They are, in the case
of Lithuania, actually bordering on Kaliningrad on a heavily
militarized Russian exclave.
And so what that means is, there is a certain amount of
Russian military activity we are just going to see. We are
going to keep seeing it, and it is sort of normal that we would
see it, because that is where Russia's population is and that
is where their assets are.
So I think that is why in terms of context, I think it is
very important that we interpret Russia's actions and threats,
not with charity, but in the context in which they are actually
taking place and not in a sort of fear-laden fever dream kind
of politicized context. That would be my only----
Mr. Rohrabacher. And, Mr. Meeks. Thank you very much for
that.
Mr. Meeks. Thanks, Mr. Chairman. And let me say, Mr.
Chairman, I am sure the committee would love to have maybe
General Flynn or Paul Manafort come to testify, because they
will have the opposite--you know, they will--hear their point
of view. They may be great witnesses.
Mr. Rohrabacher. Okay. Go right ahead.
Mr. Meeks. Well, let me jump into this, because--and maybe
I will ask Ms. Stamp, because we started and we were talking
about that, because over the past 2 decades, since the end of
the Cold War, you know, we talk about what we are doing or
what--NATO is there, but the Russians have also engaged in
exercises and have often quadrupled, is that not correct, the
size of the NATO forces in the region? In fact, a lot of the
Russian exercises have--you know, you have seen over 100,000
troops. And NATO, our Baltic allies have been--you know, they
have been talking and telling us this for years, that it is not
just something happening on one side, but there is a threat
that they see right across the border, 100,000 troops
unannounced. You know, they do this unannounced.
So my first question is, actually, has the U.S. military
presence in Europe increased or decreased since the end of the
Cold War? Two, is the post-Wales response enough? And what
happens or what do you see with reference to the comparison of
the exercises that the Russians have been going on for the last
few years?
Ms. Samp. Sir, thank you for that question. I would
describe the scale of Russian activities as an order of
magnitude greater, that is ten times greater than anything that
NATO and the U.S. is doing. The size of the U.S. presence in
Europe since the end of the Cold War has decreased
dramatically. At its height, it was about 350,000 troops. That
would have been in the late 1980s. We are now at about 62,000
troops. With the rotational forces that we have put in since
2014, that number has risen by about 6,000 rotational,
nonpermanent forces.
And is it enough? I would argue there is more to do. I
think we should seriously consider having at least as many
troops in Europe now as we did in 2012.
Mr. Meeks. Does anybody disagree, agree? Mr. Goble?
Mr. Goble. I would--Congressman, I would like to come at
this in a slightly different way that I think speaks to that. I
think we are wrong to both operate on a model that the Cold War
has been restored and that the Cold War is over. The one
implies that we are going back to a status quo ante of 1991,
and therefore, we need to respond as we did then. The other is
to imply that when you don't have a Cold War, the only possible
default setting is cooperation, peace, happiness, and niceness
with people. History suggests otherwise. There are competitions
between countries.
I have tried to say in my testimony, perhaps not very well,
I tried--it is clear in my written remarks, I think this is--
that we need to address what Russia is doing less in terms of a
military threat than in terms of the other kinds of threats it
poses: Using subversive measures, using massive amounts of
money. I would be far happier to learn that we were investing
in more cyber attacks--counter cyber attack centers, that we
were investing in more transparency in banking systems,
especially, I would say, in the three Baltic countries, in
Latvia, where the banks have been used as a major money
laundering enterprise for Russian oligarchs, than to talk
immediately about more troops anywhere. That is what I believe.
Mr. Meeks. Let me ask this question, because I think in
your written testimony, you do talk about the fact that you
think the lines of communication between the Kremlin and the
Baltic States should increase or they should be there.
Mr. Goble. Absolutely.
Mr. Meeks. Now, given the subversions that you are saying
is taking place, and given that, you know, we are seeing it and
feeling it, you know, from the hearings we just had right here
in the United States----
Mr. Goble. Right.
Mr. Meeks [continuing]. As to some things with reference to
Russia trying to get involved in our politics and democracy, do
you think that, you know, that the suppression that Mr. Putin
obviously has at home against the media, et cetera, and then
the subversion that he is trying to do in other countries, will
that ever change under Mr. Putin's leadership?
Mr. Goble. Congressman, the good news is Vladimir Putin
will not live forever. That is the really best news I can tell
you from this region. Moreover, Mr. Putin has changed his own
approach domestically and in foreign policy terms several times
since he came to--he was installed in power at the end of 1999.
Encouraging conversations has at least three effects, all
of which are positive: First, if the Baltic countries show
themselves willing to have such conversations and the Russians
refuse to do so, the onus of not talking is clearly
demonstrated; second, the notion that people in the Baltic
countries are interested in talking--in having conversations
with their Russian counterparts can be an important conduit of
information and influence into the Russian Federation; and
third, and this week--you know, this is something when I was
working on Baltic affairs at the State Department 25 years ago,
while the President of Estonia at one point famously said he
would rather have Canada for a neighbor and that he wished
there was a very large ocean between himself and the Russian
Federation, the reality is that Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania
are going to be Russia's neighbors for a very long time.
Now, one would like that relationship to be such that
Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians will make the choices
about what they will do rather than those choices being made in
Moscow. And that is what this is about. But the best way to do
that, in my mind, as I said in my written testimony, is for us
to be promoting those kinds of transparency changes
domestically that limit the ability of Moscow to engage in the
subversive activities which it has been doing consistently
since 1991.
Mr. Meeks. Let me do this. We have a vote that is up, and I
know my colleague may have a question. And I did want to ask
Mr. Lucas one other question. I think that the chairman had
made a statement, and it is important for me to know also.
The benefits, you know, can you tell us a little bit what
the benefits have been for the Baltic States to continue to be
in the EU membership? And has the EU supported their liberty
and independence in face of the aggression of Russia? And is
there any difference--you know, and I think you being--you
know, Mr. Rohrabacher indicated because of your accent, of
course, and England, is there any difference of what you see
the difference now with Brexit and NATO and the EU, and your
opinion on that?
Mr. Lucas. Thank you for the question. I am strongly
against Brexit and I think it was a bad mistake by my country,
but the position of the Baltic States is very different. There
is overwhelming support for the EU in all three countries, and
the benefits have been colossal, chiefly in the integration
into decisionmaking, because in this rules-based format, small
countries get a voice. This is not the Europe of the 19th
century where the big countries do the deals that they can and
the small countries accept the outcomes that they must.
We have people in the Baltic States in really senior
positions, and making a difference, in the EU's decisionmaking.
Very large sums of money have flown into the Baltic States, and
the infrastructure has been transformed by EU money. The people
in the Baltic States have the right to live and work and travel
all through the European Union as European EU citizens. This is
extremely popular in the Baltic States. And I think one
shouldn't read too into British thing wnhich is very specific
and very, very different.
I just wanted to relate to one other point. You were asking
about why there are no examples of military aggression in the
Baltic States. Well, that is because NATO works, Chairman
Rohrabacher. And if there had been military aggression in the
Baltic States since 2004, we would have responded in military
terms and----
Mr. Rohrabacher. Excuse me. Can you repeat that?
Mr. Lucas. Sir, I was just saying you were asking why there
were no examples of military aggression in the Baltic States.
That is because NATO works. You know, Russia tries other stuff,
and my fellow panelists referred to some of the examples, and I
could give many more. But we have drawn a red line in the
Baltics, and that is a good thing, and everybody is therefore
better off as a result, not least the Russians.
Mr. Rohrabacher. Thank you very much.
We didn't have a big enough panel here. We didn't have
anybody on the panel here to offer the other arguments. I am
just going to have a very short closing statement and then I am
going to have to run off and vote. We have a vote on right now.
I am sorry we couldn't let this go on for another \1/2\ hour
and have a better exchange.
Look, I fought in Afghanistan against Russian troops. All
right? I was a speech writer for President Reagan for 7\1/2\
years. One of the things my friend quoted was something I had
worked on with President Reagan.
Let me note, I just think there is a mind-set, and it is
represented right here on the panel. I am sorry, I am going to
be very frank with you, that we are dealing with the Soviet
Union now, except maybe for the gentleman on the end, but this
is not the threat that we faced. If the Russians were doing to
us, what we are doing to them. Our manned bombers heading
straight into Moscow and St. Petersburg. No, it is not
justified. It is provocative and it is hostile.
And the fact is that our Baltic friends, they don't even
feel threatened enough to spend money for their own defense. So
what does that tell you? That tells you that we have got people
here, as well as there, that have a motive, in that they hate
the Russians. All right? Not all the Baltic people hate the
Russians, but there is hatred there for a just reason.
While the Russians controlled the Baltics, they murdered
millions of people. And Russians were in Eastern Europe, and
they murdered millions of people. And, yes, that is because
they were there when it was communism. It was communism that
motivated that occupation. It was communism that motivated
Russians to go in different places in the world to try to
supplant democratic governments with atheist dictatorships. It
was communism; it wasn't the Russian people. And I will just
have to say that the current Russian Government is flawed
dramatically, we all know that, but it is not the Communist
government that existed before.
Just this thing, I guess there was no other major cyber
attacks that basically were able to cripple a country, except
for the one in Estonia. I asked that. So I guess, as far back
as 2007, we are going to start using that as an example of
hostility today. The people in the Baltics don't think they are
under military threat, because they don't even spend their own
allocation for their own defense.
And, finally, let me just say that when I look at Russia, I
would hope that we do not judge other countries differently
than we judge our own. And I will have to say that the United
States has military forces all over the world today, and in
some cases we are places that we shouldn't be. And sometimes it
is greatly important for our national security, but the idea
that when a Russian spy ship comes down our coast, that we all
go crazy about it and start saying this is provocative, which
is what I heard in the news, but it doesn't make any difference
about us having our warships, some of which can carry nuclear
warheads, right up next to the Russian coast.
These double standards, we got. All I am saying is let's
build a more peaceful world by at least dealing with the people
who control Russia today, and try to reach an understanding,
what is in your interest and what is in our interest. And
today, we are acting in a very belligerent way as if, no, no,
you don't have the right to do things in your own interest and
to have a military exercise in your own country. We are
comparing us having nuclear weapons delivery systems and
thousands of troops right on the Russian border, we are saying,
well, no, that is not aggression, but 300,000 troops inside
Russia itself, its own country, that is aggression? This is
nonsense, and we have got to, if we are going to have peace in
this world, be realistic and we have to say to ourselves, how
do we do this?
And it is not giving up territory. Nobody is talking about
giving up the Baltics. But let's not say over and over again,
which I have heard, the Russian aggression in the Baltics. I
have heard that expression, military aggression in the Baltics,
dozens, if not 30 or 40 times used to justify a hostile foreign
policy toward Russia. And I will tell you, nothing that I have
heard today justifies that phrase being used: Russian military
aggression in the Baltics.
So with that said, I want to thank our panel. I am sorry
that I was able to do this tirade at the end. I really wanted
it to be an exchange where you could refute me, and back and
forth, because that is what we are supposed to have here, but I
have to go vote and my friend has to go vote as well.
I want to thank you very much. And thank you for putting up
with me venting at the very last minute without your chance to
retort. But if you would like to put in the record a retort, we
will do it. Okay? Thank you all very much.
[Whereupon, at 3:20 p.m., the subcommittee was adjourned.]
A P P E N D I X
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