[Senate Hearing 113-594]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]
S. Hrg. 113-594
FORECASTING SUCCESS: ACHIEVING U.S.
WEATHER READINESS FOR THE LONG TERM
=======================================================================
HEARING
BEFORE THE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON OCEANS, ATMOSPHERE, FISHERIES, AND COAST GUARD
OF THE
COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE,
SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION
UNITED STATES SENATE
ONE HUNDRED THIRTEENTH CONGRESS
FIRST SESSION
__________
DECEMBER 12, 2013
__________
Printed for the use of the Committee on Commerce, Science, and
Transportation
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SENATE COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION
ONE HUNDRED THIRTEENTH CONGRESS
FIRST SESSION
JOHN D. ROCKEFELLER IV, West Virginia, Chairman
BARBARA BOXER, California JOHN THUNE, South Dakota, Ranking
BILL NELSON, Florida ROGER F. WICKER, Mississippi
MARIA CANTWELL, Washington ROY BLUNT, Missouri
MARK PRYOR, Arkansas MARCO RUBIO, Florida
CLAIRE McCASKILL, Missouri KELLY AYOTTE, New Hampshire
AMY KLOBUCHAR, Minnesota DEAN HELLER, Nevada
MARK WARNER, Virginia DAN COATS, Indiana
MARK BEGICH, Alaska TIM SCOTT, South Carolina
RICHARD BLUMENTHAL, Connecticut TED CRUZ, Texas
BRIAN SCHATZ, Hawaii DEB FISCHER, Nebraska
EDWARD MARKEY, Massachusetts RON JOHNSON, Wisconsin
CORY BOOKER, New Jersey
Ellen L. Doneski, Staff Director
James Reid, Deputy Staff Director
John Williams, General Counsel
David Schwietert, Republican Staff Director
Nick Rossi, Republican Deputy Staff Director
Rebecca Seidel, Republican General Counsel and Chief Investigator
------
SUBCOMMITTEE ON OCEANS, ATMOSPHERE, FISHERIES,
AND COAST GUARD
MARK BEGICH, Alaska, Chairman MARCO RUBIO, Florida, Ranking
BILL NELSON, Florida Member
MARIA CANTWELL, Washington ROGER F. WICKER, Mississippi
RICHARD BLUMENTHAL, Connecticut KELLY AYOTTE, New Hampshire
BRIAN SCHATZ, Hawaii DAN COATS, Indiana
TIM SCOTT, South Carolina
TED CRUZ, Texas
C O N T E N T S
----------
Page
Hearing held on December 12, 2013................................ 1
Statement of Senator Begich...................................... 1
Statement of Senator Rubio....................................... 3
Statement of Senator Wicker...................................... 4
Statement of Senator Klobuchar................................... 5
Statement of Senator Schatz...................................... 5
Letter dated December 11, 2013 to Hon. Mark Begich and Hon.
Marco Rubio from Robert Gagosian, President and CEO,
Consortium for Ocean Leadership............................ 6
Statement of Senator Blumenthal.................................. 57
Witnesses
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini, Assistant Administrator for Weather
Services, and Director of the National Weather Service,
National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration, U.S.
Department of Commerce......................................... 8
Prepared statement........................................... 10
William B. Gail, Ph.D., Co-founder and Chief Technology Officer,
Global Weather Corporation (GWC); President-Elect, American
Meteorological Society (AMS) and Member, Committee on the
Assessment of the National Weather Service's Modernization
Program, National Research Council of the National Academies... 26
Prepared statement........................................... 28
A. Thomas Young, Chair, Satellite Independent Review Team, NOAA.. 34
Prepared statement........................................... 35
Barry Lee Myers, Chief Executive Officer, AccuWeather, Inc....... 36
Prepared statement........................................... 37
Richard J. Hirn, General Counsel and Legislative Director,
National Weather Service Employees Organization................ 44
Prepared statement........................................... 46
Lee E. Ohanian, Professor of Economics, and Director, Ettinger
Family Program in Macroeconomic Research, UCLA................. 50
Prepared statement........................................... 52
Appendix
Letter dated December 12, 2013 to Hon. Mark Begich from Conrad C.
Lautenbacher, Jr. VADM USN ret., CEO and Director, GeoOptics,
Inc............................................................ 61
Response to written questions submitted to Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
by:
Hon. Marco Rubio............................................. 62
Hon. Dan Coats............................................... 63
Response to written questions submitted by Hon. Marco Rubio to
William B. Gail................................................ 64
Response to written question submitted to A. Thomas Young by:
Hon. Marco Rubio............................................. 64
Hon. Dan Coats............................................... 65
Response to written questions submitted by Hon. Marco Rubio to:
Barry Lee Myers.............................................. 65
Lee E. Ohanian, Ph.D......................................... 68
FORECASTING SUCCESS: ACHIEVING U.S. WEATHER READINESS FOR THE LONG TERM
----------
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 12, 2013
U.S. Senate,
Subcommittee on Oceans, Atmosphere, Fisheries, and
Coast Guard,
Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation,
Washington, DC.
The Subcommittee met, pursuant to notice, at 10:32 a.m. in
room SR-253, Russell Senate Office Building, Hon. Mark Begich,
Chairman of the Subcommittee, presiding.
OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. MARK BEGICH,
U.S. SENATOR FROM ALASKA
Senator Begich. We'll call this meeting to order, the
Subcommittee on Oceans, Atmosphere, Fisheries, and Coast Guard,
on forecasting success. What a better day to have on weather,
to talk about it, where Alaska is warmer and the rest of the
country is colder.
Senator Klobuchar. That would be minus 20 wind chill in
Minnesota.
Senator Begich. See that? We had 29 degrees in Anchorage
yesterday positive.
Senator Klobuchar. We won't talk about Hawaii.
Senator Schatz. 82.
Senator Begich. Yes. Senator Schatz can now leave the room.
[Laughter.]
Senator Begich. Thank you all very much for being here.
Senator Wicker. It's been December all month in
Mississippi.
Senator Begich. Does that mean it's gift time, too?
We thank the members for being here today. We are here
today to discuss the future of the weather enterprise in the
United States. By that we mean the unique public-private
partnership between the National Weather Service and their
private sector academic partners. This is no doubt--there is no
doubt this partnership is key to our physical, economic,
environmental system.
Economists tell us 30 percent of all U.S. economic activity
is in the weather-dependent sectors, like aviation,
agriculture. Extreme weather events, like tornadoes and
hurricanes, and climate events like droughts are increasingly
frequent. In 2012 we saw 11 weather and climate disasters that
exceeded $1 billion in damages, including the historic
Superstorm Sandy.
My home state of Alaska certainly has its share. In the
winter of 2011 a blizzicane, as we call it, struck the state
with hurricane-force winds over an area that would have
stretched from San Diego to Seattle in the lower 48. Just last
winter we had historic flooding in the town of Galena.
Increasing weather disasters mean we are more and more
reliant on the weather enterprise to keep us safe and protect
our economic prosperity. I like to think of making weather
forecasts like farming. There's lots of data out there, things
like temperature and humidity and barometric pressure, which
one could say are like the crops in the field. Just like you
need some pretty expensive combines and other farm equipment to
go out and gather crops, we need some pretty expensive
satellites and radars to harvest the data.
That part is extremely capital-intensive, which is why we
are here today, to talk about the importance of satellites so
much here regarding our budgets and other issues that regard
NOAA, the weather, and the satellite issues.
At some point, the gathered crops get processed into
consumable food and sold by retail outlets to the general
public. We do the same thing with data. We process it with
computer models into forecasts the general public can use and
make it available through the Internet and other media. We rely
mostly on the government to harvest the data and process it
into forecasts, although the private sector has a role there,
too. As we rely largely on private sector partners to get the
forecasts out to the public, this means, though, that thinking
your weather forecast comes from Weather.com is like thinking
your food comes from the grocery store.
Alaskans know better. We know better than most where our
food comes from. Don't get me wrong. Ninety percent of
Americans get their weather information from retail forecasters
like the Internet or local television. They are a critical part
of the system. But they are only one link in a much longer
chain, a chain that starts with NOAA and the National Weather
Service.
That's why discussion of the future of the Weather Service
is so important. There have been several studies of the Service
in the past years by places like the National Academy of
Science and the National Academy of Public Administration. They
all point to past successes in modernization and modernizing
the service, but point out the need for continuing changes and
improvements. They say we need to build a Weather-Ready Nation.
The Service has a new leader, Dr. Louis Uccellini, and I
have met with him yesterday. We had a great conversation, and
his sense of urgency is clearly not only shared from my
perspective, but he clearly understands the need of looking at
the modernization of our weather system.
There is much work for Congress, for the Service, and for
the weather enterprise to do to achieve the Weather-Ready
Nation goal. We need a better understanding of the human
factors, how people respond to weather information and how the
public can act appropriately when the threat becomes severe. We
will need to refocus the weather workforce to focus more on
partnering and communicating with emergency managers and local
stakeholders, to ensure forecasts are acted on.
We will need to adopt a culture of continuous technology
improvements instead of big bang periods of intense change
followed by relative stagnation. And we will need to improve
our weather and climate research and research into operations
processes to ensure the U.S. remains the leader in weather
forecasting. There will be significant challenges. We need
Weather Service management and the employees union to work well
together to bring about these changes. The successful
modernization of the Service in the past hinged on cooperation
between the union and management, and we will need to do this
in times of extremely tight budgets. Indeed, Weather Service
budgets in constant dollars have declined by 2 percent since
2004.
I look forward to this hearing and the many discussions
that we'll have and again to make sure that the U.S. is second
to none in protecting lives and property when it comes to
weather forecasts and weather-related threats.
Let me turn to my Ranking Member, Senator Rubio, for his
opening comments.
STATEMENT OF HON. MARCO RUBIO,
U.S. SENATOR FROM FLORIDA
Senator Rubio. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, for holding this
hearing. Thank you, Senator Schatz, for requesting it, and to
all of you for being here today.
Weather forecasting is important. We rely on it for daily
decisions that we make in our private lives, but also in the
commercial sector. From farmers to fishermen, forecasting is a
very important part of their daily lives. For example, in
Florida every person, family, and business, including my own,
very closely follows the hurricane season. Every single
tropical storm and every hurricane during the hurricane season,
you can just imagine we're keeping a close eye on it.
The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, by the way, was
predicted to be an above-average season, with an above-average
number of storms. Between 13 and 20 named storms and 3 to 6
major hurricanes were forecasted. Yet we are thankful that that
was wrong, at least for Floridians, because it ended on
November 30 as the sixth least active hurricane season since
1950, and for that we should take some credit, right?
[Laughter.]
Senator Rubio. Anyway, I understand that the National
Weather Service used a new forecasting model for the 2013
season. So one of the things I would like to hear a little bit
more about today is why this model was chosen and whether or
not we want to use it again in the future.
Additionally, as we all know, there has been several
reports on the structure and the function of the National
Weather Service, including reports by the National Academy of
Sciences and the National Academy of Public Administration. One
of those reports indicated that there has been no change in
baseline staffing since the modernization and associated
restructuring that occurred in 2000, despite pretty significant
technological advances.
After the modernization, the Weather Service was reduced to
about 4,700 positions, in spite of some calls for reducing the
workforce to an even lower number. However, in 2012 the
National Weather Service had grown again, to over 4,900
employees. Last year 61 percent of the National Weather
Service's budget went to labor costs.
I'm concerned that as we review the agency and work to not
only maintain a robust forecasting system, but also address
potential future data gaps due to satellite launch delays, the
demands of the workforce may work against our efforts to
streamline and to find efficiencies. As we'll hear today from
Dr. Ohanian, the achievements of the National Weather Service
Employees Organization, often contradict and impede the
agency's ability to implement some external recommendations,
for example those made by the National Academy of Public
Administration.
We've seen the impact that public sector unions have had on
places like Wisconsin and on Detroit and, while I don't think
we're that far down the line at the National Weather Service, I
think it's important that we address any inefficiencies on the
front end before it is too late.
I would also like to better understand how we can best work
together as we find the most productive path forward for the
National Weather Service.
Finally, I believe our commercial sector for weather
forecasting plays a real vital role, both today and in the
future. As we face data gaps as soon as 2016, we have to find
ways to leverage our secondary value chain in creative ways. I
look forward to hearing testimony from our witnesses today as
to exactly how best we can use our commercial sector to make
our forecasting system the premier system that I believe it can
continue to be.
So thank you again, Mr. Chairman, for holding this hearing
and I really do look forward to the testimony.
Senator Begich. Thank you very much.
I'll ask members if they have any comments they want to
make before we start with the Q and A and the statement.
Senator Wicker, and then Senator Klobuchar, and then Senator
Schatz.
STATEMENT OF HON. ROGER F. WICKER,
U.S. SENATOR FROM MISSISSIPPI
Senator Wicker. Well, thank you very much. I appreciate the
opportunity to make an opening statement, because we're going
to have votes and we'll be going in and out.
Is it ``YOU-chell-EE-nee''?
Dr. Uccellini. Yes.
Senator Wicker. Dr. Uccellini, thank you for being here.
I've welcomed the witness to the Committee before we convened
and he's aware that I'm going to ask about the Coastal Act and
the progress that's being made concerning this portion of the
Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act.
The purpose of the Coastal Act is to lower cost to the FIP
by better determining flood losses in the case of slabs, where
little tangible evidence beyond a foundation remains for the
proper adjustment of insurance claims. This is a problem that
occurs whenever there's a named storm that wreaks devastating
losses and leaves little evidence other than a slab.
The Act--the purpose of the Act and the belief behind the
Act was that scientific data could be used with NOAA, with
FEMA, with other agencies, to give us information to assist in
assessing damages between the wind insurance and the flood
insurance, and that's the purpose of the Act. So I hope that I
have an opportunity, with all the other things going on today,
to ask about that. I appreciate the work that our witness is
doing in that regard and look forward to delving into that
later on, and the other issues.
So thank you very much, Mr. Chairman, for allowing me to
speak about this one particular item of interest.
Senator Begich. Thank you very much, Senator Wicker. That's
exactly why I'm asking for openings, because it's going to be
kind of a little chaotic here. But we want to make sure people
get their voices heard.
Senator Klobuchar.
STATEMENT OF HON. AMY KLOBUCHAR,
U.S. SENATOR FROM MINNESOTA
Senator Klobuchar. Well, thank you very much. And thank
you, Senator Schatz, for requesting this hearing. I did just
check and it is currently minus 16 degrees in International
Falls, Minnesota. So you can see why this is important. People
have to know what to wear when they go across the street.
So we care a lot about weather forecasts in Minnesota, not
only because of the cold weather, but also because, unlike
Senator Rubio with hurricanes, we have tornadoes that can come
up with a moment's notice. But still the predictions--even a
10-minute notice can make a huge difference. We've had many
instances where the sirens going off saved literally hundreds
of lives, kids in a school where the school was completely
destroyed.
We also have flooding challenges every single year. I think
of Georgetown, Minnesota, which is threatened every time the
Red River rises and the Buffalo River overflows, or the severe
flooding that hit Duluth, Minnesota, in 2011. So we really
truly appreciate the work of the Weather Service and ensuring
that NOAA and the National Weather Service can make timely and
accurate forecasts is incredibly important, and I'm looking
forward to asking you about the effects of sequestration and
how you foresee we continue with this Service, because it's
very important to our state livelihoods as well as the
economics.
Thank you very much.
Senator Begich. Thank you very much.
Again, Senator Schatz, thank you for making the request for
the meeting and this subject matter, because I think, as you
get a sense from cold to warm climates, it's an issue in many
different ways.
So Senator Schatz, and then we'll go right into your
testimony if that's OK. Senator Schatz.
STATEMENT OF HON. BRIAN SCHATZ,
U.S. SENATOR FROM HAWAII
Senator Schatz. Well, thank you very much, Mr. Chairman and
Ranking Member. I just got handed this by my staff, but it was
not necessary, because I already knew that it was 70 degrees
right now, with a high of 82, without checking.
Before we move on, I'd like to submit for the record, with
your permission, Mr. Chairman, a letter from a leader in the
academic community: from Robert Gagosian, President and CEO of
the Consortium for Ocean Leadership.
Senator Begich. Without objection.
[The information referred to follows:]
Consortium for Ocean Leadership
December 11, 2013
Hon. Mark Begich,
Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee,
Oceans, Atmosphere, Fisheries, and Coast Guard Subcommittee,
Washington, DC.
Hon. Marco Rubio,
Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee,
Oceans, Atmosphere, Fisheries, and Coast Guard Subcommittee,
Washington, DC.
Dear Chairman Begich and Ranking Member Rubio,
As you prepare to hold a hearing regarding U.S. weather readiness,
I would like to share with you the perspective of the academic
oceanographic community. As you may know, Ocean Leadership represents
95 of the Nation's leading ocean research and education institutions,
including thousands of researchers working to better understand the
ocean's role in driving weather and climate systems.
Naturally, when we think of weather and storms we look to the sky
and clouds. Yet the most powerful influence on weather resides in our
ocean, which contains 1,000 times more heat in its top seven feet than
is held in the entire atmosphere. The ocean is truly the flywheel of
the Earth's climate system, driving the transfer of massive amounts of
heat and water across the globe. Despite these facts, the National
Climate Prediction Center collects roughly 1,000 times more
measurements in the atmosphere than the sub-surface ocean for their
storm models. This is a reflection of the difference in the level of
investment in observing systems and the difficulty of maintaining
comprehensive systems in the marine environment. Recent scientific
research and analyses of the Earth's climate and weather systems leads
to the conclusion that critical advances in weather models and
forecasts will be achieved through better monitoring of ocean processes
that drive coupled ocean/atmosphere heat transfer dynamics.
While storm intensity forecasts will be improved with additional
ocean observations, so will our ability to understand crucial oceanic
processes such as El Ninno-Southern Oscillation, thermohaline
circulation, sea-ice dynamics, and sea-surface heat exchange, all of
which are vital in predicting regional and seasonal weather patterns.
Beyond protecting lives and property, these forecasts are critical for
many sectors of our economy including agriculture, transportation,
energy, and tourism. While many are urging prioritization of short-term
weather forecasts, the reality is that these forecasts are dependent on
longer-term sustained observations of both the ocean and the
atmosphere.
Unfortunately, there are many examples of how the dearth of
oceanographic data has impacted communities and economies. For
instance, forecasts for Superstorm Sandy underestimated the amount of
storm surge in Manhattan by nearly eight feet, largely because the
models underestimated the winds because they did not account properly
for ocean temperatures. Inaccurate forecasts of waves over the Columbia
River Bar (known as the Graveyard of the Pacific) can cost shippers
over $100,000 for each day that a container ship is tied up in
Portland, Oregon, rather than setting sail. Rapid acceleration in sea-
level and ocean temperatures along with changes to ocean currents and
chemistry will put our predictive capabilities to the test, with
increasing impacts on society and economies hanging in the balance.
While our Nation and the world has suffered mightily from recent
ocean-derived storms such as Sandy, Katrina, and Haiyan, there are also
non-weather related threats from the sea that have also devastated
communities and economies such as the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster,
the Fukushima nuclear catastrophe, and the great Indian Ocean tsunami
of 2004. So, as you craft legislation to help improve the nations'
ability to forecast extreme weather events, we hope you will not do so
at the expense of our ability to be better prepared for the next
tsunami, oil spill, red tide, or fishery disaster. Ultimately, improved
forecasts require additional research, continuous observations,
advanced modeling and powerful computing of both the atmosphere and the
ocean. We hope you will advance legislation that promotes and sustains
a balanced research and observational portfolio, while also fully
leveraging the scientific expertise within and outside of the Federal
Government.
We appreciate your consideration of our recommendations and the
ocean science community remains committed to working with the Committee
to ensure that our Nation can be better prepared for weather-derived
events.
Regards,
Robert Gagosian,
President and CEO,
Consortium for Ocean Leadership.
cc:
The Honorable John Rockefeller IV
The Honorable John Thune
The Honorable William Nelson
The Honorable Maria Cantwell
The Honorable Richard Blumenthal
The Honorable Roger Wicker
The Honorable Kelly Ayotte
The Honorable Dan Coats
The Honorable Tim Scott
The Honorable Ted Cruz
Senator Schatz. Thank you very much.
The quickening tempo of super-disasters demands that we
have a weather enterprise that strives continuously to improve
outcomes on our communities, on the economy, and on human lives
from severe weather. That's why I wanted this hearing today,
and I'm very appreciative of the chair and the ranking member.
Consider the period from 1980 to 2011. After studying this
period, world reinsurance giant Munich Re concluded that North
America faced in excess of a trillion dollars in damage. This
is only the economic loss. According to the same study, 30,000
North Americans lost their lives due to weather catastrophes.
The reinsurance industry has no agenda other than to try to
understand risk.
No matter what you may think about climate change or
greenhouse gases, the human toll and economic loss from severe
weather is staggering. In just over 2011 and 2012, the United
States suffered $25 billion worth of disasters, and I'm
concerned about the many more that we may face in the years
ahead.
The American weather enterprise is up to the challenge, but
I also believe that we as a Congress need to do more and begin
the conversation about whether further steps are warranted. As
our witnesses here today will show, improving outcomes from
severe weather will take all hands on deck--environmental
observations, basic and applied science, and outreach to
individuals, communities, and businesses. We are doing well,
but we have to do better in order to ensure that observations,
science, and outreach to the public work together so that they
directly support the ultimate goal of improving outcomes from
severe weather.
That means taking deliberate choices about the
environmental data that we pay to collect. It also means
scrutinizing the link between research and operations to hone
in on the most critical science. And most of all it means
strengthening our efforts to educate the Nation about how to
use the environmental data and forecasts that we provide.
So I look very much forward to hearing from our panelists.
Thank you, Chair Begich.
Senator Begich. Thank you very much.
Everyone gets to do their weather reports. In Barrow,
Alaska, it's minus 14.
Senator Klobuchar. We beat you.
Senator Begich. I know. With wind chill factor, minus 25.
But the good point is above the Arctic Circle it is still
warmer than Minnesota, and we like that.
Let me say, Dr. Uccellini--did I pronounce that right?
Dr. Uccellini. Yes.
Senator Begich. Thank you very much for being here. You can
sense the interest that we have in this issue, so I appreciate
you're here. As Assistant Administrator for Weather Services,
National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration, and Director of
the National Weather Service, your role is important for all of
us in many ways. So please go ahead and have your testimony.
Then we'll open up for questions, and then we do have a second
panel that comes after you. Please.
STATEMENT OF DR. LOUIS W. UCCELLINI,
ASSISTANT ADMINISTRATOR FOR WEATHER SERVICES,
AND DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION,
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Dr. Uccellini. Good morning, Chairman Begich, Ranking
Member Rubio, and members of the Subcommittee. I appreciate the
opportunity to testify before you today on the state of the
United States weather forecasting capabilities and
opportunities to take weather forecasts and services to the
next level.
Our Nation is experiencing an increase in and impacts from
extreme weather events. I am sure this committee recalls the
record-breaking weather events over just the past few years:
devastating wildfires, floods, heat spells, snow and ice
storms, violent tornado outbreaks, and catastrophic hurricanes,
especially Sandy. These events were well forecast days in
advance and the connections with Federal, State, and local
emergency managers ensured that decisions could be made in
advance to save lives and mitigate impacts.
Now, there are four fundamental components to our forecast
process that contribute to these accurate forecasts: global
observations, numerical weather prediction models,
supercomputers, and a well-educated, trained, and dedicated
workforce. Throughout all of these major weather events,
dedicated Weather Service employees issued the lifesaving
warnings, even though their own families were often impacted by
the same weather events. It is this incredible dedication to
the Weather Service mission that defines the National Weather
Service employees.
Now, building on these successes in providing decision
support services, we are ready to take weather prediction to
the next level. We must advance our weather forecast
capabilities and better connect with a wide range of decision
makers, partners, and customers to ensure the United States
becomes a Weather-Ready Nation, ready, resilient, and
responsive, in the face of these extreme events.
To ensure that we are a Weather Service second to none, we
need to provide our forecasts, indeed the entire weather
enterprise needs to provide forecasts, based on improved
weather prediction models that rely on global observations,
especially the modern polar and geostationary satellite
observations.
We need a Weather Service workforce trained to meet the
growing needs for decision support services for our core
partners in the emergency management community. And we need
active and engaged collaboration across the entire weather
enterprise to ensure we support the secondary value chain, our
commercial partners, who are continuing to expand their
services around the world.
This focus on decision support will be accomplished by
embracing a number of interrelated fields of physical and
social sciences, examining the atmosphere, the ocean, land,
ice, and space. This can only be accomplished closely with the
entire research community both inside NOAA and externally. We
are all working together to improve and extend accurate weather
prediction and to determine the best ways to communicate
forecasts and warnings to ensure preparedness and response that
can save lives and protect property.
We are very good at what we do. But as we all know,
forecasting the weather still has its challenges. We know we
must improve. The National Weather Service structure in service
delivery has been largely static since the restructuring
efforts in the 1990s, which reflected the best technology and
communications capabilities at the time. We also currently have
aging facilities and infrastructure and increasing operations
costs. We have minimal capacity for testing and demonstrating
changes in our service delivery and to support our workforce
and stakeholders as we test any changes.
We cannot address the challenges ahead without considering
better, more flexible and agile service delivery methods.
Congress recognized the need for the Weather Service to change
and directed that two studies be conducted, the 2012 National
Academy of Science study and the 2013 National Academy of
Public Administration study. Both studies reaffirmed NOAA's
Weather-Ready Nation strategy and also supported the strategic
goals outlined in the Weather Service strategic plan for
impact-based decision support services.
Furthermore, the reports emphasized that we must change in
order to keep pace with stakeholder and societal needs and
emphasized that changes need to be transparent, orderly,
deliberate, and continuous. The reports also emphasized that we
must involve the entire public, private, and academic weather
enterprise and the National Weather Service Employees Union as
we evolve the National Weather Service, and we have attempted
to do that for all ongoing activities.
We agree with the study recommendations and embrace them
fully. We are moving forward to address the main challenges set
forth in the NAPA study to create an organization capable of
change. This is essential as we move forward toward a more
fully integrated field office structure, issuing improved and
consistent forecasts and warnings, especially for high-impact
events.
Changing the National Weather Service will be a long
process, a marathon rather than a sprint. NAPA suggested
restructuring the Weather Service budget structure and
streamlining headquarters as a good place to start. Both of
these are proceeding as our top priority efforts, with NWSEO
participation.
Let me emphasize, we are committed to managing the budget
provided by Congress and improving those areas where increasing
vulnerabilities to extreme weather demand it. I want to thank
Congress for the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013.
The funding provided by that legislation is a game-changer for
NOAA and the National Weather Service. It allows us to increase
our operational high performance computing capacity by ten
times, which is a crucial element which allows us to improve
the numerical weather prediction models and supporting weather
research.
Our Fiscal Year 2014 budget request builds on this to
increase consistency in our forecasts, to solidify our
technical and communications infrastructure, and to increase
decision support service, to accelerate the transition of
proven research into operations by engaging the research and
academic communities, perhaps through a reinvigorated United
States weather research program.
In conclusion, extreme weather events cause loss of life
and significant damage. We recognize we must improve to meet
society's needs to avoid these losses and mitigate the damage.
We cannot shy from the challenges ahead. We will need your help
and support to meet these challenges.
I believe the Weather Service is a national treasure. The
protection of the American people from weather-induced
devastation is a sacred trust and duty given to us. Together we
must ensure our services and operations live up to this trust
and responsibility.
I look forward to your questions.
[The prepared statement of Dr. Uccellini follows:]
Prepared Statement of Dr. Louis W. Uccellini, Assistant Administrator
for Weather Services, and Director of the National Weather Service,
National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of
Commerce
Good morning Chairman Begich, Ranking Member Rubio, and Members of
the Subcommittee.
It is my honor to testify before you today on the state of United
States (U.S.) weather forecasting capabilities and opportunities that
now enable us to take weather predictions to the next level, especially
for extreme events. We at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) welcome your interest and the opportunity to
discuss this important topic. As a mission-driven, operational agency,
NOAA is responsible for global satellite observations, in-house
research, research collaborations with our valued external partners,
operational forecast excellence, and the delivery of critical products
and services. The NWS works with NOAA's other Line Offices to realize
our mission.
NWS has the sole Federal responsibility for issuing weather and
water warnings to communities across the country and in U.S.
territories to protect lives and property. NOAA, as an agency, is
trusted with the responsibility to provide environmental information
and forecasts to American citizens, businesses, and governments to
enable informed decisions on a range of issues and scales--local to
global and short-term to long-term. NOAA provides a suite of products
and services to the American people, including the reliable and timely
delivery of public weather warnings which help safeguard lives. To do
so, we work closely with the larger community of federal, state, and
local emergency officials, other Federal agencies, and the commercial
weather enterprise to deliver the best possible information that
science and technology can provide. Put simply, NOAA provides critical
information that saves lives and enhances our national economy. We also
work with the academic and research community to continually conduct
weather research to improve our forecasts and warnings.
Driving Change--Society's Changing Needs
Our Nation is experiencing an increase in extreme weather events.
Over the past two years, our country has endured devastation from fires
in the South and West; drought over the plains and western states;
Hurricane/Post-tropical Cyclone Sandy; destructive tornadoes and severe
storms in Oklahoma, Washington, Illinois, and the Midwest; and the
massive floods in Colorado and Utah. The NWS has the best forecasters
in the world providing critical life-saving forecasts and warnings.
However, to take weather prediction to the next level we must evolve to
ensure that the U.S. becomes a Weather-Ready Nation in the face of
increasing threats related to extreme events. To ensure that forecasts
are better used by a diverse group of decision makers, we need to
provide accurate and consistent forecasts through a fully integrated
field office structure comprised of all field and headquarters units
working together to create fully consistent and seamless products and
services. And we must organize ourselves internally to ensure our
forecasters are linked to, and trained to communicate with, decision
makers at the federal, state and local levels. This evolution will help
create a Weather-Ready Nation. In addition, we need to bring additional
capabilities in environmental prediction to the forefront as we work
toward integrating land, sea, and air predictions into an environmental
prediction capability.
Congress recognized the need for NWS to change and directed that
two studies be conducted. The first, done by the National Academy of
Sciences (NAS): ``Weather Services for the Nation: Becoming Second to
None'' (August 2012),\1\ examined the NWS Modernization and
Restructuring of the 1990s as a background for moving forward. The
follow-on study was conducted by the National Academy of Public
Administration (NAPA): ``Forecast for the Future: Assuring the Capacity
of the National Weather Service'' (2013).\2\ Both studies reaffirmed
NOAA's Weather-Ready Nation concept and supported the strategic goals
outlined in the NWS Strategic Plan \3\ for impact based decision
support services for a wide variety of extreme events. Furthermore, the
reports emphasized that NWS must change in order to keep pace with
stakeholder and societal needs and emphasized that any changes need to
be transparent, orderly, deliberate, and continuous and must involve
our stakeholders. We know we cannot do it alone. We also know we must
not fear change.
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\1\ http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13429
\2\ http://www.napawash.org/2013/1455-forecast-for-the-future-
national-weather-service.html
\3\ http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/files/
strategic_plan.pdf
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We need more than just the best forecasters. We need improved
numerical weather prediction models to meet increasing demands for more
accurate and reliable forecasts and warnings. We need a NWS workforce
trained and structured to meet growing needs for decision support
services for our core partners in the emergency management community.
We need a fully integrated field structure to produce a consistent set
of forecasts for a wide range of extreme events. We need to streamline
multiple ways of disseminating our forecasts, watches, and warnings. We
need well-resourced observing platforms including NOAA's next
generation geostationary and polar orbiting satellites. We need an
integrated weather-water approach to advance environmental predictions,
especially along our coasts. We need active and engaged collaboration
across the entire weather, water and climate enterprise to enhance what
the NAS called the ``secondary value chain'' to build out enhanced
services for the whole U.S. economy. In short, to meet the country's
expanding needs, we need to institute a challenging set of changes in
NWS science and technology, services, workforce, partnership relations,
and to a significant degree, culture. And we need to do all this during
this period of budget uncertainty.
In order to advance weather forecasting as a whole, NOAA must
realize advances across all of the interdisciplinary fields of earth
science, research, technology and observations. We must leverage
partnerships within government, academia, and the commercial sector,
and we must actively pursue, in concert, a balanced program to advance
all of the factors critical to success.
NWS agrees with the NAPA recommendations and embrace them fully. We
are moving forward to address the main challenges set forth in the NAPA
study:
Pace of Change: Working toward an orderly and deliberate
process
Budget: Aligning budget to function and linking to
performance, transparency
Managing Innovation: Engaging all stakeholders and avoiding
hidden costs
Consistent Services: Timely, accurate, reliable services
consistent across the Nation
Labor/Management Relations: Building a strategic partnership
There is an ever increasing demand for additional lead time ahead
of severe weather events. Emergency management officials and Federal
partners have indicated that at ideal capabilities, NWS would provide
highly consistent and accurate hurricane landfall predictions at days
five and six, allowing for pre-positioning of crews, enhanced
mitigation and evacuation efforts, and improved recovery planning--all
of which can result in many more lives saved. Similarly, an hour of
warning before a powerful tornado, versus the minutes of warning we
provide today, might allow hospitals to move patients, people to seek
secure shelter and avoid being caught in vehicles, homes, or schools
not robust enough to withstand a powerful storm.
NWS strives to integrate the best advances in science and
technology in order to provide the most accurate and timely forecasts
possible. Much of our success comes from scientific and technological
breakthroughs made by research that spans across disciplines, time, and
space scales. The dynamic systems of this planet are interconnected in
rich and complex ways, and success in forecast improvement comes by
looking broadly across those linkages.
Furthermore, NWS, driven by demand from our customers, has evolved
to provide more than just short-term weather forecasts. Our prediction
capabilities are becoming a fusion point that emergency managers,
broadcasters, Federal agencies, and the public increasingly turn to as
a trusted source that distills scientific information into ``impacts
coming my way.'' This is done by embracing a number of interrelated
fields of physical and social sciences, examining the atmosphere,
oceans, land, ice, and space, and determining the best ways to
communicate forecasts and warnings to ensure preparedness and response
that can save lives and protect property.
While our computer predictions have improved, it is the dedication
of our skilled workforce that makes it all possible. Recent tornado
outbreaks throughout the south and Midwest, land falling hurricanes,
and snowstorms in the Midwest all attest to the forecasting skill and
dedication of the NWS workforce. NWS employees stayed on the job
issuing life-saving warnings to the public at large even though their
own families were living in the direct path of the devastating
hurricanes and tornadoes. The South Dakota snowstorm occurred during
the October furlough and dumped 3-4 feet of snow. The staff at the
Rapid City, SD forecast office stayed at the office for 2-3 days,
despite the personal impact on them and their families. It is this
dedication to the NWS protect life and property mission that I find
most admirable.
State of Predictions
Hurricane/Post-tropical Cyclone Sandy (Sandy) is an excellent
example of how far we have come and yet how far we have to go to become
a Weather-Ready Nation. Sandy devastated the eastern U.S. from North
Carolina northward to Maine, with impacts reaching west as far as
Wisconsin. Days prior to Sandy, NWS forecasters used models,
integrating satellite, aircraft, and other weather observations to
predict the path of the storm. Our forecasters gave emergency personnel
and the public an accurate track forecast a full five days before the
October 29 U.S. landfall which bought local communities the time they
needed to issue evacuations and move or secure valuable infrastructure.
We deployed fourteen forecasters to emergency operations centers in the
northeast including Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) regions,
and state and local emergency operations centers, including New York
City. We also provided forecasts of total rainfall, storm surge, wave
height, and other phenomena that would impact the mid-Atlantic and
northeastern states. Our accurate predictions enabled FEMA to
preposition response assets and emergency managers to more precisely
evacuate coastal areas in the path of this unprecedented storm, saving
countless resources and lives. Our forecasts also allowed New York City
Metropolitan Transportation Authority officials to move valuable
resources supporting the mass transit system out of harm's way enabling
a rather quick return to relatively normal system operations. It is
these types of Decision Support Services to our critical partners in
the emergency management community that we believe we must expand and
orient ourselves to deliver.
I am proud of the work NOAA did during Sandy and especially proud
of the work NWS forecasters did. Our people rose to meet the challenge
this unprecedented storm presented. Last spring we released our Sandy
assessment. This assessment found that our forecasts saved lives and
property. It also highlighted areas we can improve. Most significantly,
the report recommended that NOAA accelerate improving our storm surge
products. Consistent and accurate storm surge forecasts further in
advance will help affected states in their response to tropical cyclone
hazards. NWS is working across NOAA, and especially with the National
Ocean Service (NOS), to work with the coastal and water communities to
improve storm surge and inundation products and determine how best to
communicate that information. We could not advance in this area without
the NOS. The synergies of having the NWS and NOS working together
within NOAA to improve the storm surge products and services available
to the Nation cannot be overstated. We are committed to serving our
users. To make good on that commitment we must continue to direct
resources to ocean and coastal research, observing, and mapping.
While we did well with our predictions for Sandy, some computing
and communication shortfalls were apparent. Congress recognized these
issues and provided ``game changing'' funding in the Disaster Relief
Appropriations Act of 2013. In the summer of 2013, NWS completed a
major upgrade to the operational weather supercomputers which brought
operational forecast computing a threefold hardware capability
increase. This base-budget-funded upgrade included major resolution
enhancements and an advanced global model that runs more economically
on the new hardware. Funds from the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act
of 2013 will be used in FY 2014 and FY 2015 to improve operational and
weather research computing capability. With these funds, NOAA's
operational computing capability will increase tenfold by late 2015.
The FY 2014 President's Budget requests additional funds for NOAA to
upgrade operational computing, which when implemented will provide a
27-fold increase in operational computing capability by 2015. That
advancement will give the NWS unmatched operational computing
capability and the ability to run the latest long-range forecast models
with improved resolution and physics, and the ability to more
accurately assimilate the data from new NOAA polar orbiting satellites
and geostationary satellites.
This increase in capacity will allow NWS to bring proven research
and forecast model development into operation as it is completed,
rather than wait simply because the computing resources are not
available. The Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013 not only
provided funds to improve our computing capabilities, but also to
implement scientific research activities into operational weather,
storm surge and coastal forecast models, to accelerate weather
research, and to enhance observations. In addition to computing
capacity, the President's FY 2014 budget request continues this trend
of pulling proven research improvements into operations. Transitioning
science developed in NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research
(OAR) into operational use at the NWS and NOS is a high priority for
NOAA as a whole.
Increasing Focus on Decision Support and Outcome Measures
Over the past three years it has become apparent that we cannot
measure the success of our mission only by the accuracy of information,
but we must also measure success by how effectively we apply our
information, predictions, outlooks and forecasts to societal needs. As
such, we are pursuing a number of innovative approaches not only to
provide significantly more lead time for forecasts, but also to ensure
that people truly understand these warnings and take informed and
appropriate actions to protect their own safety. Our Nation needs to be
ready for weather impacts, respond to them, and be resilient to recover
from them. Our emphasis on technological and social science
advancements is a new approach to building a ``Weather-Ready Nation''
and one that we expect to provide large returns--measured in avoided
economic losses and saving of lives and property.
There is much more to be done if we are to achieve new life-saving
advancements in the future, and we are committed to working with our
Federal, academic, private sector, and international partners in the
broader enterprise to continue this record of success.
NWS' environmental predictive capabilities are supported by four
foundational pillars: observations, scientific research, computer
modeling (including High Performance Computing), and our people--who
provide forecasts, warnings, and decision support services to key
decision makers and the public. In order to advance forecasting
capabilities, we must strengthen all four of these pillars in concert.
For example, our forecast models are only as good as the data we put in
them. Without investments in high quality global observational data,
the accuracy of our operational forecast models would suffer. Only by
evolving in concert across each of these realms can we realize
significant, sustained improvement in forecast capabilities.
Of the data actually assimilated into NWS numerical weather
prediction models that are used to produce the longer term weather
forecasts three days and beyond, over 93 percent comes from satellites,
of which over 80 percent are from polar-orbiting satellites. These
polar-orbiting satellites include NOAA's Polar-orbiting Operational
Environmental Satellite (POES), Suomi National Polar-orbiting
Partnership (Suomi NPP) satellite, and the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observing Satellites (EOS) in the
afternoon orbit, and the European Metop satellites which fly in the
mid-morning orbit. GOES satellites, along with Doppler Radar, assist
operational weather forecasters to monitor existing conditions and
provide essential information over data-sparse areas, including the
oceans and the Gulf of Mexico. Maintaining continued development of the
JPSS and GOES-R Series satellites is critical for not only maintaining
current capabilities, but supporting advancements in forecasting
capabilities.
The benefits and planned advancements of our predictive
capabilities are realized only if people receive the information and
take appropriate actions. Taking responsibility not only for advancing
prediction but also for understanding how to communicate our
predictions as effectively as possible is a major part of our Weather-
Ready Nation initiative and a major piece of my vision for the future
of the NWS. NWS uses many different ways to disseminate warning
information ranging from conventional methods including our own NOAA
Weather Radio All-Hazards network and the broadcast media, to social
media including Facebook and Twitter. Cell phones are rapidly becoming
a major way for the public to receive emergency information. Wireless
Emergency Alerts (WEA) are credited with saving lives during the
November tornado outbreak in Illinois. News media reported WEA
simultaneously activating many cell phones during church services in
Washington, Illinois. People received the warning then went to shelters
in the churches as the tornado roared through the neighborhood. This is
exactly what was envisioned when Congress appropriated the funds for
the wireless alert program, managed by FEMA, Federal Communications
Commission, and NOAA, and implemented by the cellular phone industry.
Contrast this with the 1994 Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak in Alabama,
when a tornado warning was issued, but 20 people were killed in a a
Cherokee County Alabama church because they did not receive the tornado
warning prompting them to take shelter. We have come a long way, but
there is more we need to do to become a Weather-Ready Nation--to be
ready for the event, to be responsive, and to be resilient. Our work
with social science is allowing us to provide our information in ways
and words that people can understand and take action.
While advances in observing, computing, and forecast model
development are important, innovation is necessary in order to meet the
Nation's weather and water needs. NWS is conducting six pilot projects
at local Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to test the evolution of
decision support services to meet society's needs. One such innovative
effort is in the Tampa Bay, Florida, WFO. This effort is integrating
weather forecasts into ecological forecasting for Tampa Bay and the
local estuaries. This and other Pilot Project innovations aim to test
and demonstrate new products and services that can have broader use
elsewhere to address changing and evolving customer needs.
While these advances and innovative efforts are important,
addressing aging infrastructure, improving scientific understanding,
and implementing enhanced services are also necessary to reduce risk to
the Nation. Perfect forecasts don't save lives without the
infrastructure to disseminate them and an understanding of how best to
communicate to spur individuals to take action. I plan to evolve the
NWS to devote more time and attention into working with partners in the
social sciences to understand how to communicate better and then in
training our workforce to implement the best practices learned.
In addition, NWS must increase its capacity to collect and
assimilate ever-growing quantities of data to improve forecast model
performance, and hence weather predictions and forecasts. This, too,
can only be achieved through scientific research and technological
advancement. Future technology improvements and computing assets are
crucial pieces of our National infrastructure.
Weather Enterprise Collaboration
To provide the best possible weather services to the Nation, NOAA
has developed a close working relationship with the U.S. commercial
weather sector. This has been growing since the National Academy of
Sciences report, Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and
Climate Services, and has gained momentum in recent years with NOAA's
``Weather-Ready Nation'' initiative. The NOAA Science Advisory Board
established (and has recently re-chartered) the Environmental
Information Services Working Group to strengthen connections between
public and commercial sector activities in weather and climate. The
American Meteorological Society also responded to the report and
sponsored a productive set of meetings and interactions among the full
weather enterprise, including Federal, academic and commercial sectors.
NOAA works continuously to enhance its efforts across the weather
enterprise, allowing more participation of the commercial and academic
sectors in the development of advanced prediction capabilities that
have potential for transition into products and services. NWS work also
fosters development in the commercial sector that leads to
significantly better products for specific audiences and needs. NWS
could not meet its mission without the private sector, nor could the
private sector be thriving without NWS.
Weather Research and Computing Partnerships
Improvements in weather forecasts and warnings all begin with an
idea. Research is essential to determine the viability of the concept
and then key to transition those proven ideas and concepts into
operations, whether they are improvements in computer models and data,
or forecast and warning techniques. Our closest partner in weather
research is the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) within
NOAA. The work at OAR's National Severe Storm Laboratory, its Earth
Systems Research Laboratory, and at the Atlantic Oceanographic and
Meteorological Laboratory has been integral to the advancements the NWS
has made in prediction and forecasting over the past decade. In
addition, many Federal agencies work with NOAA and conduct weather
research including, but not limited to, the NASA, the Department of
Defense (DOD), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and investigators
supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF), with notable
contributions from the NASA/NOAA/DOD Joint Center for Satellite Data
Assimilation. Integrated and focused weather research efforts are
needed, particularly in this challenging budget climate in which we
find ourselves.
We are fortunate that the science and technology of weather
prediction is in a period where new advances are becoming available,
thanks in large part to Federal researchers working in close
partnership with external partners. For example, OAR is developing
concepts that apply high-resolution computer models in shorter-range
forecasts to increase tornado warning lead times. An estimated 15
minutes of warning lead time was provided for the recent Washington,
Illinois, tornado. With advances in observing and forecast modeling,
under the Warn-On Forecast Program, NOAA is working to extend warning
lead times from the current average of less than 15 minutes to a period
of up to an hour, to help save lives and property. The extended lead
times for severe local storms would be realized by applying an ensemble
of weather forecast models to provide a measure of uncertainty with
such warnings to the public, since no single model can capture the
natural variability of the atmosphere, nor the sensitivity of such
models to the number and quality of the observations and complexities
of the model physics.
The topics of weather research and the implementation of the best
research into operations are particularly timely. The NAPA study also
emphasized the importance of transitioning research efforts to
operations, as well as the communication of operational needs to the
researchers. I can report that Acting Administrator Sullivan is making
this effort a high priority of hers. NAPA summarized the need for
ongoing change in NWS, such as:
The Panel found enormous support for the weather, water, and
climate products and services provided by the NWS. However,
both internal and external stakeholders see additional and
ongoing change as necessary to continue to enhance NWS
performance. To continue to provide the range and caliber of
current products and services, the NWS, like any
technologically dependent organization, will need to refresh or
replace aging technology, infrastructure, and systems.
The NAS study also makes a number of recommendations regarding
weather research. This report emphasized the community enterprise that
is needed to improve weather forecasts, from academic and government
research, through technology transition, and with special emphasis on
the connection between NOAA's weather enterprise and the U.S.
commercial weather sector.
While NOAA research endeavors in both NWS and OAR include
connections to academia, the Federal Government, international agencies
and the commercial sector, more can be done. The U.S. Weather Research
Program (USWRP) was introduced as an interagency program led by NOAA
and the NSF in 1991. NOAA, NSF, NASA, and to a lesser degree DOE, were
all part of the USWRP. The main purpose of the USWRP was to define
outstanding weather research topics and fund these efforts both within
the Federal community and, importantly, the academic community research
efforts on these topics. The USWRP commissioned a series of
collaborations among Federal and academic scientists that formed
prospectus development teams (PDTs) in the 1990s to define outstanding
weather research topics. There were 11 PDTs that published papers in
the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society throughout the
1990s and early 2000s that described important research problems that
could advance the state of atmospheric science and, if addressed, would
lead to improvements in weather observations, predictions, and warnings
that would ultimately benefit society. Since 1999, USWRP has been a
program within NOAA, and now, since FY 2009, resides NOAA's OAR. Within
funds provided, efforts have focused on hurricanes, heavy
precipitation, severe convection, forecast model improvements and the
communication of weather predictions and warnings. All of this research
aims to improve high-impact weather and air quality forecasts. NOAA is
proud of its record of accurate storm forecasts and warnings.
Advanced Data Assimilation and Forecast Modeling Innovations
Forecast quality depends critically on the ability to add and
retain, or assimilate, observed information on the initial state of the
atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and ice regions to forecast models.
Advanced data assimilation techniques, increased forecast accuracy
through higher resolution and improved representation of the
atmospheric, oceanic and land physical processes are each an important
factor for improving operational forecasts. Recently, an advanced
assimilation system originally developed by OAR and other research
partners was implemented by NWS, resulting in significant improvements
in our medium range predictions. While substantial data assimilation
and forecast model improvements have occurred over the past five years,
considerable progress is yet to be made. Over the next decade, global
and regional data assimilation and model capabilities and techniques
will become more integrated into a single system capable of providing
forecast data from less than one hour to more than two weeks. Regional-
scale forecast model ensembles will have the capability to explicitly
represent convection (individual thunderstorms), which is critically
important to be able to use these models to extend the tornado warning
lead time to one hour.
Global weather forecast models are the basis of predictions from
one day to two weeks in advance. With broader geographic coverage,
global models are the key to forecasting major storms with oceanic
origins, such as hurricanes and nor'easters, as well as key to
predicting the precursors to longer term seasonal drought and heat
waves. Global models are also critical to NWS' success in preparing the
public three to eight days in advance for conditions that could lead to
major tornado outbreaks, floods and fire weather conditions. By the end
of the decade, the next generation of global models will run at
horizontal resolutions of a few miles, with more accurate
representation of physical processes. As model resolution increases,
research is required to understand how to formulate and incorporate new
physical processes into the models. Inevitably, when these steps have
been accomplished, the forecast skill will take a big step forward.
These advances can only come about through a robust research and tech
transfer effort. Sustaining such an effort into the future is the
surest way to continue advancing U.S. weather forecasting capability
and NOAA--through OAR and NWS together--is the lynchpin to drive this
work.
Trends in yearly-averaged tornado warning lead time suggest that
the present weather warning process, largely based upon a warn-on-
detection approach using Doppler radars, is reaching a plateau and
further increases in lead time will be difficult to obtain through this
method. OAR is developing new radar capabilities such as Multifunction
Phased Array Radar (MPAR), which may increase our lead times and
abilities to predict storms hours in advance. Additionally, a new
approach, referred to as the ``Warn on Forecast'' paradigm in the NWS
Weather-Ready Roadmap plan, is needed to extend warning lead time. This
approach is being developed by NOAA scientists at OAR's National Severe
Storms Laboratory. National scale high-resolution forecast models are
needed to predict particularly the details of severe weather events
such as widespread tornado outbreaks, such as the one that devastated
Alabama and adjoining states in April 2011, and landfalling hurricanes
undergoing rapid changes in intensity. The NSF National Center for
Atmospheric Research led the initial development over the last 15 years
with the creation of the regional Weather Research and Forecast (WRF)
model. Based on this model, NOAA researchers working at OAR's Earth
Systems Research Laboratory and partners have developed the High
Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, a key to the ``Warn on
Forecast'' paradigm. Running in an offline experimental model, the HRRR
model forecast the derecho that affected the eastern U.S. on June 29,
2012, twelve hours before the storm hit the Washington DC area. This
same model forecasted nine hours in advance the dangerous conditions
and general characterization of the thunderstorms that formed the
destructive tornadoes that affected Alabama on April 27, 2011.
Another notable advancement, the result of major research efforts
and investments, is the new hurricane prediction model that came on
line for the 2013 hurricane season. The operational HWRF model
represents a significant step forward in our understanding of hurricane
structure and intensity forecasting. The research has been a joint
effort across NOAA, notably NWS, OAR, and academic partners as part of
the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project. This advancement highlights
the importance of the research (OAR) and operational (NWS) entities
working hand-in-hand: as research improves, so do the forecasts. We
have achieved much higher skill in recent years through improved
computing capability, the ability to zoom in observationally for a
``deeper look'' at specific areas of storms as they form, and the
ability to assimilate critical observation data from a variety of
platforms.
Advances in Computing Capability
High-performance computing capacity and computer forecast modeling
are indispensable requirements for extending weather warning lead times
to save lives. While many nations run their own numerical weather
prediction computer models, the European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model is repeatedly singled out as the ``best
in the world.'' For example, the ECMWF model was able to predict
Sandy's landfall in New Jersey almost precisely at a full eight days
out. Meanwhile, the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) eight day
forecast predicted Sandy to move further offshore instead of making
landfall. It was not until the five day forecast that the NOAA GFS
model track became equivalent to the ECMWF track. Running at a greater
resolution on nearly ten-times the computing power of the GFS, the
dominance of the ECMWF model highlights the need for the very best
computing capability. It is important to note that NWS forecasters used
all available information, including the ECMWF, as they made their
official forecasts for Sandy's track and eventual landfall in New
Jersey. A version of the GFS running at higher resolution similar to
the ECMWF model had Sandy tracking into New Jersey at the same time
frame as the ECMWF. To address the capability gap, NOAA and its
partners in the Navy and academia are working on a directed research
program, called the High Impact Weather Prediction Project, to enhance
our global weather prediction models during the next few years. This is
another example of how the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013
funds are being rapidly applied to our mission.
As mentioned earlier, a major upgrade to NWS operational computers
was completed last summer, bringing NWS operational computing a
threefold hardware capability increase today. With the Disaster Relief
funding, NOAA's weather computing capability will increase tenfold by
2015. We thank Congress for these investments in NWS' computing
capability, which will surely save lives and property in the future.
Further investments requested in the FY 2014 President's will provide a
27-fold increase in operational computing capability by 2015--an
advancement that will give the NWS unmatched operational computing
capability and the ability to run the latest long-range forecast models
with improved resolution.
Research to Operations
NOAA is continually working to enhance the transfer of research
advances into NWS operational and information services. OAR has
developed the capability to provide improved longer range computer
forecasts as well as short-range severe weather forecasts, but the NWS
has lacked the operational computing capacity to transition these
research developments to operations. The Disaster Relief Appropriations
Act of 2013 not only brings funds to improve our computing
capabilities, but also to implement scientific research activities into
operational weather, storm surge and coastal forecast models, to
accelerate weather research, and to enhance observations. The
President's FY 2014 budget submission continues this trend of
increasing computing capacity and pulling proven research improvements
into operations. In order to improve forecast and warnings across the
country, the focus is to accelerate the transition of research and
technology from the broad research/technology communities into
operations at the NWS.
Achieving a Weather-Ready Nation
With the destruction we have already seen this year from extreme
weather and flood events, we take little solace in knowing that
outcomes could have been worse without the work of NOAA and our
Federal, State, local, academic, and commercial partners. There is much
more that needs to be done to improve the Nation's resilience. In
addition to improved forecast and warning accuracy and lead times,
integrated research, education, and outreach are essential ingredients
to improving preparedness. NWS is not alone at NOAA in this work. The
National Ocean Service is also squarely focused on improving the
Nation's resilience to extreme events along the coasts as well as OAR's
Sea Grant program through their diverse network of extension agents on
the ground in every coastal state. In addition, other programs within
OAR, like the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS),
are focused on increasing resilience in the Nation's drought prone
regions. For all of NOAA realizing a Weather-Ready Nation, where
society is prepared for and responds to high impact weather events, is
vital and the NWS is proud to lead the way.
In December two years ago, NOAA and our partners \4\ initiated an
ongoing dialog with the Nation's top experts to examine what can be
done in the short-and long-term to improve how NOAA communicates severe
weather forecasts and warnings. We've engaged leaders in broadcast
meteorology, social sciences, and emergency management, as well as
outreach specialists such as Sea Grant extension agents and warning
coordination meteorologists, and the weather industry to focus on
community response to and preparedness for severe weather. Included in
this effort are innovative technologies and social media to improve our
effectiveness in reaching those in harm's way and provoking appropriate
response, whether to the urgency of a tornado or tsunami warning, or to
the longer-term likelihoods of flooding or drought. Social science
research includes the development of new or reconfigured graphics, such
as evolving the hurricane forecast cone of uncertainty, and
visualization techniques to better communicate tropical cyclone risk,
such as GIS enabled storm surge inundation maps. It includes the
analysis of the promise and pitfalls of using Twitter in severe weather
forecast operations, the assessment of how the public uses our online
tools to understand and prepare for flood risk, and the identification
of factors relevant to an individual's response to a tornado warning.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\4\ ``Weather Ready Nation: A Vital Conversation on Tornadoes and
Severe Weather.'' This activity was co-supported by NOAA/NWS and the
National Science Foundation. A follow-up meeting in April 2012 in
Birmingham, AL--``Weather Ready Nation: Imperatives for Severe Weather
Research'' was also jointly supported by NOAA/NWS and NSF. http://
www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/workshops.html
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most NWS offices have established Facebook pages, providing an
additional medium for conducting outreach and education, as well as for
highlighting information about ongoing or upcoming weather events.
Additionally, the offices use NWSChat to give core external partners an
invaluable opportunity to interact with NWS experts and to refine and
enrich their communications to the public. And more private companies
are carrying weather warnings on wireless networks (WEA), putting real-
time alerts in the palm of your hand. Importantly this year we are
running tests to evaluate different language to include in blizzard and
severe storm warnings that may more effectively communicate the
severity of the warnings. NWS is exploring ways to make its information
easier to find, easier to understand, and easier to apply in operations
by the public and the emergency management community, which will result
in improved decision making for risk management of life and property.
Our work during the Illinois tornado outbreak, which I described
earlier, is an indication of how we are beginning to address these
concerns.
Evolving the NWS Service Delivery Model
Population growth, growing infrastructure threats, and an
increasingly interdependent economy are creating new challenges for the
Nation. At the same time, science, technology, and communications are
rapidly advancing and providing potential solutions that will enable
the NWS to better meet our country's needs. As the world has changed,
so too has the NWS in many aspects. We have advanced our scientific and
technical capabilities to better meet the needs of Americans. The
result is an organization with a greater capacity to provide timely
information to protect lives and property. However, more needs to be
done to ensure we can change as quickly as society demands to meet its
ever changing needs.
Adjusting the NWS service delivery model to reflect current demands
and to meet society's evolving and future needs is essential to
ensuring safety of life and property, and enhancing the economy. Recent
studies by the National Academy of Sciences validated the need for
improvements in numerical weather prediction, increases in decision
support services, better partnerships with the private weather
enterprise to advance a Weather-Ready Nation initiative and meet
society's needs. NWS needs to be flexible to meet evolving needs and
become second to none.
The FY 2014 President's Budget request builds on the Disaster
Relief Appropriations Act of 2013: to increase our operational high
performance computing capacity for improved numerical weather
prediction; increase consistency in our forecasts and messaging;
solidify our technical and communications dissemination infrastructure;
increase research in Decision Support Services; accelerate the
transition of proven research into operations; and work with our
employees through the National Weather Service Employees Organization
(NWSEO) to make all this happen. We believe these aims are all
supported by the best advice we have from the NAS, and are consistent
with the advice we received from NAPA. We are also sure there is much
more that needs to be done and we are committed to working with
Congress, the weather enterprise, and ultimately the entirety of U.S.
society, to create the agile and effective NWS required to build a
Weather-Ready Nation.
Given the rapid rate of change, NWS needs to be quick, flexible and
agile to meet society's rapidly changing needs. NWS is looking ahead to
a broader, end-to-end and comprehensive strategy that creates an
organization capable of change. This is essential as we move toward a
more fully integrated field office structure issuing improved and
consistent forecasts and warnings, especially for extreme events. The
discussion will focus on what services the U.S. needs from NWS and how
best to provide these. Streamlining and refocusing of the NWS budget
structure by aligning the budget to function and linking to performance
and transparency may be another element of change.
This strategy will enable us to transform the NWS into an agile,
responsive organization that can adapt quickly to new missions and
integrate new science and technology without a large Federal
investment. NWS must have orderly, deliberate, continuous and
transparent mechanisms to explore new operating concepts, tools to
inform decision on changes, and safeguards to ensure no degradation of
services while implementing changes to operations. Both headquarters
and field operations cannot be realigned simultaneously. NWS is
analyzing current headquarters functions to ensure capabilities will be
in place to support and lead field operations. This must include the
capacity to redesign and implement service delivery model improvements
for the NWS that prioritizes our ability to meet the evolving demands
for our products, services and forecaster expertise. We are planning to
have a NWS headquarters designed for the new, more agile NWS. The
National Weather Service plans to begin its transformation in FY 2015
by engineering NWS Headquarters functions to align with current
operations and meet the evolving needs of the future. This includes
such functions as implementing a fully integrated field structure with
consistent national products, resourcing dissemination properly and
sharing the best practices of our forecasters and field structure to
speed innovation; all the while running a transparent and accountable
budget formulation and execution process.
For the Modernization and Associated Restructuring (MAR), the NWS
used extensive test and evaluation of new technology and service
delivery concepts. It was strictly internal to NWS with limited
stakeholder input and participation. For the future NWS, all programs
and office types are included--WFOs, RFCs, national centers--and we
expect full stakeholder participation in the development, testing and
evaluation stages with a strong focus on evaluation to determine the
viability of implementing the ``tested'' technology or services into
operations.
NWS will follow the recommendations from both NAS and NAPA and
develop a deliberate process that engages all stakeholders, users and
partners, including NWSEO. What we know is that the status quo will not
do and for the future, with whatever service delivery model is
developed, NWS needs to operate in a new paradigm. NWS will choose what
to develop and test, with no presupposition of a larger or smaller
agency. We will employ a stringent evaluation that informs investment
choices--with the appropriate level of investment determined by
Congress and the Administration. The outcome is: NWS tests and
demonstrates possible changes in services and operations, and that
testing and demonstration is fully open to stakeholders, encouraging
and soliciting their participation. The results, rather than unfounded
assertions, drive change toward a Weather-Ready Nation.
Conclusion
NWS forecasts, warnings, and community-based preparedness programs
are vital in enhancing the economy and saving lives and property. It
all starts with a commitment to environmental observations, to research
and improved forecasting and warnings, to our people--forecasters,
modelers, technicians and managers and it ends with a Weather-Ready
Nation in which businesses, governments, and people are prepared to use
those forecasts to mitigate impacts. In spite of our best efforts,
severe weather events still cause loss of life and significant damage.
We recognize that there is always room for improvement. I am proud of
the NWS especially our people who are on the front lines delivering
critical products and services every day to help keep our citizens
safe. We are government at its best. But I need each of you to know
that we can do better. Even more of these impacts could be mitigated
with more timely, accurate, and focused forecasts, watches, and
warnings. The impacts and lives lost from the disasters experienced
over the past year alone would have been far worse without NOAA's
observations, research, forecasts, people and the extensive work of our
Federal, non-federal, state, local, academic and commercial partners to
improve the Nation's preparedness for these events through education
and outreach.
The protection of the people of the U.S. from the devastation that
weather can bring is a sacred trust and duty given to the NOAA.
Together, we must ensure NWS services and operations lives up to this
trust and duty. We have come a long way, but there is more we need to
do to become a Weather-Ready Nation--to be ready for the event, to be
responsive, and to be resilient.
Senator Begich. Thank you very much, Dr. Uccellini.
Let me say that the vote just started, so what we might be
able to do with four of us here is get through our questions,
and then maybe we might pause and then do the two votes, and
then come back and hear from the next panel. We might be able
to double it.
But let me ask you. I want to ask you first on the--we'll
have 5 minutes. On the rebalancing issue and kind of
restructuring, you had said it's kind of on schedule or on
time. So let me ask you, do you have--when you say that, is
there a timetable that you're kind of working under? Is there
something that you could maybe produce for the Committee,
unless you know it now, that you could say here is the time
schedule that we're on and how we're meeting our metrics?
Dr. Uccellini. The two items that I referred to is the
restructuring of our National Weather Service budget--we have
been working this through the Executive Branch and through the
Department up to OMB. We are working toward a schedule of
implementation in the 2015 timeframe.
Senator Begich. So that would be reflected in your budget
for 2015?
Dr. Uccellini. That is the plan.
Senator Begich. OK.
Dr. Uccellini. And with respect to the headquarters
restructuring, that is an activity that's working in parallel,
so that the headquarters process will be in full alignment with
the new budget structure.
Senator Begich. Let me ask you the issue we briefly talked
about yesterday, but you mentioned close to your closing there,
on the U.S. weather research program. Remind me. That is
authorized but nothing has been added to it money-wise or other
aspects; is that correct?
Dr. Uccellini. Yes. The U.S. weather research program is a
program developed in the 1990s. It's authorized within NOAA. It
represents a partnership of NOAA, National Science Foundation,
NASA. It involved researchers from around the country in the
academic community, in the private sector. It developed plans.
We had trouble executing according to those plans because of
budget limitations.
Senator Begich. Let me ask you another issue, on the Arctic
operations. As you know, a lot of activity is certain to occur
up there for oil and gas exploration. Also, the Bering Sea has
a lot of movement. More ships are going through the area. Can
you give me kind of a sense what more needs to be done with
regards to the work you need to have up there for the National
Weather Service? Not only for the Coast Guard, but for the
private sector that's going to be critical for oil and gas
development, but also all the transportation going through the
Bering Sea and the Arctic. Could you give me a little sense on
that?
Dr. Uccellini. The administration and NOAA have recognized
the growing strategic importance of the Arctic and commercial
importance, transportation importance of the Arctic. We are
working very closely with other agencies on science and service
plans. I think one of the major issues that we're working
toward is the improved prediction, for example, of the ice
fields both as they're created and then as they melt. So the
National Weather Service in particular is working on those
types of issues and also on the provision of services through
the Alaska region in the forecast offices up there to serve
those needs.
Senator Begich. This will be my last question because I
want to--well, let me--when you look at the public and private
sector kind of work you're doing, what is the most pressing
issue that you believe is not getting the resources you need?
In other words, there's a lot of stuff you're doing internally,
then there's stuff that the private sector is out there kind of
doing, but then there are those partnerships that, as we've
talked about, are pretty critical to the long-term health of
the agency.
Can you tell me, if you were to kind of prioritize, here's
the one or two things that just if you had more help and more
resources--and I know the OMB people are monitoring us right
now, so they're watching what you might say. So I would ask you
to be free and open and I will take the blame. So if you could
tell me what one or two of those issues might be?
Dr. Uccellini. First of all, I believe that the partnership
between the private and public sector is excellent and it's
really been productive in the provision of services, not only
to the general population, but to their tailored--how they
tailor their products and services to individual customers. And
we work in full partnership with them as we move forward.
One of the particular areas that they've brought to the
table over the last several years is the more efficient
provision of our digital data bases, especially coming out of
the numerical models. We are working with folks from the
private sector to explore ways that would give them ready
access to our models and at model resolution. That's just
turning into--it is a major technological challenge, but we are
moving forward in that arena.
We'll work creative ways with them to address any of the
issues between the private and public sector.
Senator Begich. Great. Thank you very much.
Let me pause for a second. We have just a few minutes left
on the vote, so what I can do is I will say the order is Rubio,
Wicker, Klobuchar, Schatz. I'm going to go vote. That gives you
a sense of where you are on the list, and we'll go to Senator
Rubio.
Senator Rubio. Do you want me to filibuster?
Senator Begich. No, take 5 minutes.
Senator Rubio. No, I only have--I only have a few
questions.
Senator Begich. We got rid of that rule on filibuster.
[Laughter.]
Senator Rubio. Even on questions? OK.
Let me just ask you--first, thank you for being here,
Doctor. I appreciate it very much. What steps have you taken to
implement the recommendations made by the National Academy of
Public Administration, and what remains outstanding?
Dr. Uccellini. We have taken steps--first of all, let me
just say that I came on board in this position in February 2013
and since that period of time we've had a lot of budget
uncertainty, a lot of challenges that we've had to face.
What the Academy specifically emphasized is to establish a
process for change and to start working through that. We
certainly have had discussions along that line. Specific areas
that they pointed to was the budget restructuring and the
headquarters realignment, and we are working very actively in
that arena. It was my highest priority coming into this
position, and I believe we're making extraordinary progress
along those lines.
We're also addressing what they pointed to in terms of the
research to operations issues. We believe this budget
restructuring will actually allow us to provide a more
effective catcher's mitt to the research community.
Last but not least, we're working as best we can under the
current circumstances on addressing the consistency issue with
respect to our products and services that were also cited as an
essential area that we had to move forward on.
Senator Rubio. My final question, for the interest of time,
is what are you doing to better leverage private sector data
and satellite infrastructure?
Dr. Uccellini. Well, the private sector data, we--for
example, aircraft, commercial aircraft data, is an area that we
are adjusting. It's a critical part of our data stream to feed
into the models. We also are exploring ways of commercial buys
on Mesonet data, the surface data.
With respect to the satellite, we are certainly a major
partner in the effort to work with the research satellite data
through the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation.
That's a NASA-NOAA-DOD joint enterprise. We're working with all
the research satellite data. We're positioning ourselves for
the next generation of polar orbiting and geostationary data to
be able to use those effectively, what I call at day one, when
they're launched. We're really looking forward to the
improvements that will be associated with those data streams.
Senator Rubio. Thank you.
Senator Klobuchar [presiding]. I'll just ask one question
and then toss it over, actually two very quickly. One is the
sequestration, the effect that's had on your Weather Service,
and if the new budget helps at all with changing that, the
proposed budget?
Dr. Uccellini. Well, the sequestration and when it was
implemented, halfway through a Fiscal Year, had a major impact
on us. We had to plan for a potential for furloughing because
of the budget cuts associated with that. The reprogramming that
occurred in the June-July timeframe allowed us to avoid those
furloughs. But the uncertainty associated with the budget, even
as we have the uncertainties today, did not allow us to
effectively plan and move forward.
So what we had to do with respect to the sequestration is
NOAA implement a NOAA-wide hiring freeze, which we operated
under. There's a board, a review board, and we bring high
priority positions to that board to ensure that we have the
field structure that can provide the services.
But clearly this is a critical concern to us and the
uncertainties in the budget really do not allow us to plan
forward in an effective way.
Senator Klobuchar. Thank you. Just with 30 seconds, are you
doing more to improve the flood forecasting accuracy?
Dr. Uccellini. Yes. It's one of the major tasks, not only
of the modernization of the Weather Service, but since. The
flash flood and the river flood forecast are a major component
of our efforts, and a number of these model improvements we're
pointing to not only affect the atmosphere, but the hydrology
as well, which is essential for improving our flood forecasts.
Senator Klobuchar. I appreciate your work. Thank you.
Dr. Uccellini. Thank you.
Senator Wicker. Doctor, as I mentioned, after a hurricane
hits it's very important to determine whether the cause of
damage was wind or water. That's the purpose of the Coastal
Act. I know that NOAA has begun implementing the major
provisions of the Coastal Act, including the development of a
storm event model. What is the status of the development of the
Coastal Act storm event model and is NOAA on track to meet
upcoming deadlines mandated by the Act?
Dr. Uccellini. First of all, we are working with the
Federal, private, and academic partners. We've made progress in
establishing the policy framework and the prototype coastal
wind and water event data base. I have to say that the current
budget environment will limit the capabilities to move forward,
to test, assess, and implement the new named storm event model.
So we've met the existing milestones, but in terms of
testing and executing against the new named storm event model
there will be challenges with the current budget environment.
Senator Wicker. Realizing that that may slow you down,
you'll still be able to proceed, though perhaps on a slower
track; is that correct?
Dr. Uccellini. The pace at which we will proceed will be
painfully slow, I'm afraid. This is a major, a major effort to
implement this storm event model. So I would prefer getting
back to you with details on what the impact would be and what
it would do to the milestones related to the implementation of
that model.
Senator Wicker. I would appreciate your getting back with a
supplemental answer for the record.
What Federal agencies, private industry partners, and
academic institutions are you working with?
Dr. Uccellini. Well, the cross-agencies have to do with the
collection of the data. We're working with the Climate Center
within NOAA to pull these data bases together and to implement
the website. The academic community, of course, is located
within the Gulf region and the coastal regions to deal with
these types. Then the insurance industries themselves are
knocking at the door in terms of the information aspects.
So we're being responsive to this, this consortium in a
sense of groups, as we move this database forward. Obviously,
the storm event model is something that we are working more
internally within NOAA to bring forward.
Senator Wicker. Thank you very much.
Senator Rubio. I think what we're going to do is we're
going to go into a brief recess while the members vote on the
first vote, and then we'll vote on the second vote, which will
be right after, and then we'll be right back. I think it'll
take about 15 minutes.
So the Committee will stand in recess until we all return.
[Recess from 11:10 a.m. to 11:14 a.m.]
Senator Begich [presiding]. Thank you very much. We're
trying to strategize here on what we're going to do next, but
I'm glad the Senators have gotten their questions in.
Senator Schatz is next and the plan would be, just so folks
know, we'll monitor the vote. If the vote, the second vote,
starts, we'll pause, we'll go vote, and then Senator Schatz
will take over as the Chair of the Committee, as I'm unable to
stay for the full hearing. But let's go ahead, Senator Schatz.
Senator Schatz. Thank you, Chair Begich.
I just have one question. It has to do with the use of
social media in terms of mobilizing people in the case of
disasters. When I was Lieutenant Governor in Hawaii and we had
two tsunami events which didn't end up being very serious, I
saw the advantages and disadvantages of social media, in
particular Twitter, for emerging events. And I'm wondering what
kind of thinking you're doing, whether there are best practices
being developed, because I see it as a tremendous asset, but
also potentially problematical in terms of getting the wrong
information out and possibly causing panic and dangerous
situations as a result of incorrect information.
So what are we doing in terms of trying to wrestle this
alligator to the ground, utilize it the best we can, but also
understand that there's probably nothing we can do to prevent
people from using social media, and so in my view the best
thing we can do is to make sure that we get the right
information out and use our friends in social media to get the
word out on our behalf. But I'd be interested in your thoughts.
Dr. Uccellini. First of all, what we have learned over the
past 10, 20 years as this way of disseminating information and
way of bringing information in is changing rapidly is that we
need to embrace those changes. This is not only to provide
multiple means of getting our critical information out to those
that are in greatest threat, but also to bring information in
of what's actually going on. We're seeing this over and over
again, that, whether it's the tweets, the Facebook accounts,
they are providing a valuable source of information to us for
what's actually happening out there in many critical
situations.
We have learned through a number of meetings, conversations
with social scientists, with first responders, with the
emergency management community, that people will rely on
multiple sources of information before they will make a
decision. But what really is important to them is what's coming
to them, and increasingly through cellphones. So we've been
very active in making sure that we get consistent messages out
through these various means of communications, and the social
media aspect of that is very large.
The recent example in Washington, Illinois, where people in
church were receiving warnings focused right on their area
through their cell phones, is an illustration of that. They
were able to take action and basically save their lives.
So we embrace it and we will continue to work with the
advances associated with the social media.
Senator Schatz. It sounds to me as though you are aware of
it, you are riding it, you are utilizing it, but that you're
not quite ready to articulate best practices--which, by the
way, I think we may not be ready for that because by the time
we're done with a social media policy it will be obsolete. But
it is I think important to kind of figure out from a staffing
standpoint and from a communications strategy standpoint how to
separate it out.
I saw in our emergency operations center someone who was
generating press releases and handling the television media,
and our civil defense Twitter feed was posting something every
90 minutes, which just wasn't going to work. So I'm just
interested in making sure that we are aggressively staying on
top of it. We don't have to codify anything, but I think we do
need to make sure that we're actually devoting personnel to
this particular proposition, because so far it's been mostly
beneficial, but I saw a couple of instances where bad
information was getting re-tweeted and caught fire on the
Internet, and it was very, very difficult to unravel once it
had been spread.
Dr. Uccellini. Let me assure you, whether it's within the
Weather Service or how we reach out through our private sector
partners and the academic community, we are very much engaged
in this issue and moving forward with it. We understand exactly
what you're saying. It's one of the reasons why, from a best
practices perspective, we want to ensure the consistency of our
products as they go through these multiple sources, to ensure
that we get that message out in a very straightforward way and
a very consistent way.
Senator Schatz. Thank you.
Senator Begich. Thank you very much, Doctor. We appreciate,
one, your willingness to serve, public service. Thank you for
being here. Thanks for giving some good information. There will
probably be some questions for the record later. But again,
just wanted to appreciate you being here.
I know--I think you had some foreign travel you rearranged
to be here today, and we greatly appreciate it. I know the work
we do is not just domestic, but we have international
relationships with our weather work. So I know that's an
important part. I know you had to rearrange your schedule and
around the holiday season it is hard to do that and make sure
you can still get a seat on the planes later.
So thank you very much for being here today, and we will
dismiss you from this panel.
Dr. Uccellini. Thank you.
Senator Begich. Thank you very much.
What we'll do now is we'll ask the next panel to go ahead
and set up. What we'll attempt to do while we're waiting for
the second vote to start, we will have the panelists start
their testimony. And we may pause you in between so we can go
vote. Then what will happen is Senator Schatz will come back
and be running the meeting, chair the meeting, and finish out
the meeting.
So please, can we have the next panel come forward.
[Pause.]
Senator Begich. Thank you all again for joining us. I
appreciate it.
Mr. Myers, I feel like you're like the Lone Ranger.
Everyone's off to the side from you. I don't know if that means
you get the hardest questions. I don't know about that.
But we want to thank you all for being here this morning.
What we'll do is we'll just start going right down the row
here. Like I say, we may pause you in between after one of your
testimonies just so we get time to get back here.
So let me first go to Dr. William B. Gail, President-elect,
American Meteorological Society. Please, Mr. Gail.
STATEMENT OF WILLIAM B. GAIL, Ph.D., CO-FOUNDER
AND CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER, GLOBAL WEATHER
CORPORATION (GWC); PRESIDENT-ELECT, AMERICAN
METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (AMS) AND MEMBER,
COMMITTEE ON THE ASSESSMENT OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE'S MODERNIZATION PROGRAM, NATIONAL
RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Dr. Gail. Chairman Begich and distinguished members of the
Subcommittee: It is a privilege to be present here today and to
testify. Thank you for the invitation. My name is Bill Gail. I
am co-founder and CTO of Global Weather Corporation, a
successful startup that exemplifies the growing commercial
opportunities in weather. I'm also President-elect of the
American Meteorological Society.
I'm speaking to you today primarily as a member of a
committee chartered by the National Research Council of the
National Academy of Sciences. We recently reviewed the past and
future of the National Weather Service and released two
reports. The first described how the Weather Service
modernization of the 1990s introduced major improvements to our
Nation's weather observing systems and to the Weather Service
structure. This was needed to remedy inadequate modernization
from several decades prior. The committee felt the Weather
Service successfully learned most lessons from the
modernization and it has since continued to modernize.
In the second report, titled ``Weather Services for the
Nation: Becoming Second to None, Look to the Future,'' we found
that today's challenges are no less important than those of the
1990s modernization. However, the challenges today are largely
external, reflecting the ever-evolving user needs and
technology context.
The Committee identified three key challenges: one, keeping
pace with advances in science and technology; two, meeting
society's expanding needs for better weather information; and
three, effectively collaborating with the larger enterprise to
achieve the greatest public benefit. Meeting these key
challenges will require the Weather Service to evolve its role
and how it operates.
We made three recommendations. Our first was that the
Weather Service should refocus on its core capabilities. These
include creating foundational data sets, performing essential
functions, such as forecasts and warnings, and conducting
operationally-related research. All are needed for the Weather
Service to perform its central role of protecting lives and
property and for it to support the enterprise as a provider of
additional services. Accomplishing this requires the Weather
Service to prioritize those things only it can do and avoid
duplicating capabilities where viable alternatives exist.
Our second recommendation was to update Weather Service
function and structure. The current structure reflects roles
appropriate to the 1990s. Technology has changed much of the
rationale for the present structure. We anticipated that the
since-released NAPA report would add needed details in this
area.
Our third recommendation addressed the need to better
leverage the larger enterprise of organizations providing
weather services and systems. The relationship between the
Weather Service and the rest of the enterprise has improved
considerably since the modernization, with praise deserved by
all parties. Improved leveraging enhances the Weather Service's
ability to serve the Nation and allows it to enhance its
services at a time when its own resources may be constrained.
The Committee believed that meeting today's challenges will
require changes at the Weather Service over as much as a
decade. The result will be a more agile and effective Weather
Service. In a constrained resource environment, this approach
makes possible benefits to the Nation beyond what the Weather
Service budget alone allows.
My personal experience starting a weather company is a
testament to the report's recommendations. This is indeed a
great time to be part of this community. Through ongoing
technological and scientific improvements, we can serve the
Nation, our citizens, and businesses far more effectively than
has ever been possible before.
Why is this important? Superstorm Sandy and recent
tornadoes in Illinois, Alabama, and Oklahoma remind us that we
can and must do far more to protect lives and property. There
is also great potential for weather information to be a growth
engine for the economy. On average, weather variability alone
alters economic output up to 3 percent at the State level from
one year to the next.
Indeed, in every market my company enters we find
opportunity for efficiency improvement. For example, Excel
Energy uses 10 percent of America's wind farm capacity.
Improved wind farm forecasts we provide have saved over $22
million for their ratepayers. The trucking industry lost $18
billion in 2011 to weather-related accidents and delays. Yet
weather forecasts are not routinely used. A company called
Telogis is about to change that using our services to offer
weather and road condition forecasts for every mile of major
road in the country.
The Nation will benefit from strong, visionary efforts to
achieve long-term weather readiness. The weather community,
built from the most dedicated people you will find anywhere, is
committed to serving the Nation. We are working aggressively
toward the readiness goal and welcome your support.
Thank you for the opportunity to testify and I would be
pleased to answer your questions.
[The prepared statement of Dr. Gail follows:]
Prepared Statement of William B. Gail, Ph.D., Co-founder and Chief
Technology Officer, Global Weather Corporation (GWC); President-Elect,
American Meteorological Society (AMS) and Member, Committee on the
Assessment of the National Weather Service's Modernization
Program, National Research Council of the National Academies
Chairman Begich, Ranking Member Rubio, and distinguished members of
the Subcommittee: It is a privilege to be present here today and to
testify. Thank you for your invitation. My name is Bill Gail. I am co-
founder and Chief Technology Officer of Global Weather Corporation, a
provider of precision weather forecasts to businesses within the
energy, media, transportation, and consumer sectors. I am also
President-Elect of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), and I was
a member of the recent National Research Council study Weather Services
for the Nation: Becoming Second to None that recommended future
directions for the National Weather Service. My academic training is in
physics and electrical engineering and I have over two decades of
experience in the fields of meteorological satellites, weather
services, and location-aware software.
Let me first commend you for the attention you are giving to the
topic of U.S. weather readiness. Support for our Nation's weather
infrastructure pays off many times in benefit to the nation, and
legislation to accomplish that is wise. Properly crafted legislation,
sufficiently comprehensive in scope and not overly prescriptive, can
help achieve what I believe is a broadly supported objective of
elevating the Nation's weather, water, and climate capabilities.
I'll begin by speaking to you today in my role as a member of the
Committee that produced the Second to None report for the National
Research Council (NRC). The Research Council is the operating arm of
the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and
the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies, chartered by
Congress in 1863 to advise the government on matters of science and
technology. I will conclude by providing personal perspectives based on
my experience starting a company in this expanding industry. My company
has been successful in today's difficult economy precisely because high
quality weather information is increasingly needed by our Nation's
businesses across many industries to serve their customers, improve
operations, and be competitive in the global marketplace. For this
statement, I draw directly on prior testimony I have given in the House
on similar topics.
Part I
Background of the NRC Second to None report
The Second to None report, released in August of 2012, was the
final report of a two-part assessment of the National Weather Service's
Modernization and Associated Restructuring (MAR). The report's title
states nicely what the Committee believed deeply and what I understand
you are seeking with this hearing: ensuring world-leading capacity of
the U.S. weather enterprise so as to best serve our Nation.
In the first report, the Committee was asked to perform an overall
review of the MAR, which was initiated in the 1980s and completed about
a decade later. During that time, major upgrades were made to the
satellite, radar, and ground-based observing systems. In addition, the
field offices and national centers underwent significant restructuring
and major staffing realignment. Although the MAR faced many difficult
lessons during this decade-long process, the Committee concluded that
it was a success and worth the investment. One of the most striking
results has been the improvement in the probability of detecting and
issuing warnings for severe weather events. For example, the
probability of detection for flash floods increased from about 40
percent to about 90 percent over the course of the MAR.
The second report, referred to widely as Second to None, presents
forward-looking advice for the National Weather Service (NWS) on how
best to plan, deploy, and oversee future improvements based on lessons
from the MAR. I will focus on that report in the first half of this
statement.
Identifying Today's Key Challenges
The MAR produced major improvements to our Nation's weather
observing systems and to the NWS structure. It was primarily the
response to an internal failure to properly modernize the technology
base and organizational structure from the mid 1950s to the early
1980s. The Committee felt that the NWS successfully internalized most
lessons from the MAR, and has since continued to modernize to the
extent that resources have allowed. Yet today the challenges the NWS
faces are no less important than those that motivated the MAR era.
However, rather than internal failures, today's challenges are largely
external, reflecting the ever-more rapidly evolving user needs and
technology context of our society. These challenges include:
Keeping Pace. The pace of scientific and technological
advancement in the atmospheric and hydrological sciences
continues to accelerate. As an outgrowth of public and private-
sector investment, technology advancements are exceeding the
capacity of the NWS to optimally utilize these technological
achievements. Furthermore, enormous amounts of data generated
by new surface networks, radars, satellites, and numerical
models need to be rapidly distilled into actionable information
to create and communicate effective public forecasts and
warnings. The skills required to comprehend, manage, and
optimize this decision-making process go beyond traditional
meteorological and hydrological curricula. Hence, the NWS
workforce skill set will need to evolve appropriately.
Meeting Expanding and Evolving User Needs. Increasingly, the
United States is an information-centric society. Meteorological
and hydrological information in particular is central to
societal security and welfare. Unlike some other industries,
weather is largely an information-based enterprise. The public
expects continuous improvement in public safety and property
protection related to severe weather.
Partnering with an Increasingly Capable Enterprise.\1\ At
the time of the MAR, delivery of weather information was
largely synonymous with the NWS, the broadcasting sector, and
those private-sector suppliers of weather data and services
that supported the broadcasting sector (and a few specialized
industries). Outside of this, the weather, water, and climate
enterprise had limited capacity. Today, the enterprise has
grown considerably, and now the NWS has many important
partners. All of these entities rely on core NWS infrastructure
and capabilities to provide customized services. Together this
combination of the NWS and third parties serves the Nation
better than the NWS could on its own.
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\1\ The ``enterprise'' includes all entities in the public,
private, non-profit, research, and academic sectors that provide
information, services, and infrastructure in the areas of weather,
water, and climate. For the purposes of this report, ``enterprise'' is
often used as shorthand to refer to those enterprise elements outside
NOAA that it can draw on in its mission. The non-NOAA portion of the
enterprise is now of equal or greater economic size compared to the
NOAA portion.
Today's challenges are made more difficult by the external context,
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
two areas of which are of particular importance:
Budget resources are uncertain and will likely be
constrained for the next decade.
Operational performance standards against which NWS is
measured, including those set by international weather service
counterparts and private-sector entities, are increasingly
high.
Additional important contextual issues include: the transformative
pace of technological change; expansion of the number and type of
observational data; continued concentration of infrastructure
investment and population growth in vulnerable areas; the possibility
of changing weather patterns arising from climate change; and ongoing
evolution of international dimensions.
Responding to the Challenges
Meeting today's key challenges will require NWS to evolve its role
and how it operates. The goal is for it to become more agile and
effective. This report presents three main recommendations for
accomplishing this: Prioritize Core Capabilities, Evaluate Function and
Structure, and Leverage the Entire Enterprise.
I. Prioritize Core Capabilities
The NWS needs to prioritize those core capabilities that only the
NWS can provide so as to deliver the products and services upon which
the public and the entire national weather, water, and climate
enterprise depend. These core capabilities include creating
foundational datasets, performing essential functions such as issuing
forecasts, watches, and warnings, and conducting operationally-related
research.
Recommendation I: The National Weather Service (NWS) should:
1. Evaluate all aspects of its work that contribute to its
foundational datasets, with the explicit goal of ensuring that
those foundational datasets are of the highest quality and that
improvements are driven by user needs and scientific advances.
As part of this initial and ongoing evaluation effort, clear
quality and performance metrics should be established. Such
metrics would address the technical components of NWS
operations, as well as the efficiency and effectiveness of the
flow of weather information to end users.
2. Ensure that a similarly high priority is given to: (a) product
generation and dissemination; (b) the brokering and provision
of data services, and (c) development and enhancement of
analysis tools for maintaining a common operating picture
(COP).
3. Engage the entire enterprise to develop and implement a national
strategy for a systematic approach to research-to-operations
and operations-to-research.
In support of this recommendation, the NWS should:
Continue effective technology infusion programs,
Improve numerical weather prediction systems,
Develop and advance observational data metrics,
Lead a community effort to provide probabilistic forecasts,
Develop hydrologic prediction metrics, and
Maintain an ongoing capability for development and testing
of its incremental technical upgrades.
II. Evaluate Function and Structure
The current structure of the NWS primarily reflects the functions
of the weather, water, and climate enterprise in the 1990s. Technology,
including improvements in communications and computer forecast models,
has changed much of the rationale for the present organizational
structure of the NWS. In view of the directions outlined in NWS's
Weather-Ready Nation Roadmap for expanding the role of forecasters and
other NWS staff, it would be prudent to evaluate the NWS's
organizational and functional structure.
Recommendation II: In light of evolving technology, and because the
work of the National Weather Service (NWS) has major science and
technology components, the NWS should evaluate its function and
structure, seeking areas for improvement. Any examination of potential
changes in the function and organizational structure of the NWS
requires significant technical input and expertise, and should include
metrics to evaluate the process of structural evolution. Such an
examination would include individual NWS field offices, regional and
national headquarters and management, as well as the National Centers
and the weather-related parts of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) such as the National Environmental Satellite,
Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) and the Office of Oceanic and
Atmospheric Research (OAR).
In support of this recommendation, the NWS should:
Broaden the scope of its post-event evaluations,
Expand its vision of team structures and functions within
and between forecast offices,
Develop performance metrics-based approaches to assessing
staff skill sets,
Retrain service-hydrologist staff to instill an evolutionary
culture.
III. Leverage the Entire Enterprise
The relationship between NWS and the rest of the enterprise has
improved considerably since the MAR, with praise deserved by all
parties. The Committee views further improvement of NWS-enterprise
interaction as a way to enhance the NWS's capability to accomplish its
mission of serving the public. This is especially important when it is
seeking to enhance its service at a time when the Nation faces
constrained resources. Leveraging the entire enterprise provides one
means to further NWS's mission of serving the public.
Recommendation III: The National Weather Service (NWS) should
broaden collaboration and cooperation with other parts of the weather,
water, and climate enterprise. The greatest national good is achieved
when all parts of the enterprise function optimally to serve the public
and businesses. This process starts with the quality of core NWS
capabilities but is realized through the effectiveness of NWS-
enterprise relationships. A well-formulated enterprise strategy will
also return direct benefit from the enterprise to the NWS, especially
in areas of shared research, technology development, observational data
sources, and improved end-user access to NWS-generated information.
In support of this recommendation, the NWS should:
Seek to better understand the functioning of the secondary
value-chain (defined as enterprise partners that provide value-
added services beyond dissemination of NWS weather and
warnings), and
Strengthen its systems engineering and procurement processes
for major systems.
Part II
A Revolution in Service to the Nation
Now let me turn to my personal perspective, derived from my
experience starting a weather services company in this challenging
economy and from my role as incoming president of the American
Meteorological Society (AMS).
I have found this to be a tremendous time to be part of the weather
community. We have the opportunity to serve the nation--our citizens
and businesses--far more effectively than has ever been possible. The
reason is simple. Our work involves three basic activities: observing
the current weather, converting that information into forecasts, and
getting the information to the people who need it. Over the last fifty
years, this three-step process has been revolutionized. Starting in the
1960s, the advent of advanced observing systems such as satellites and
Doppler radar gave us new ways to view current weather. Then in the
1980s advances in both computing power and modeling techniques began to
make possible far more accurate forecasts of future weather. More
recently, rapidly expanding Internet access and now smartphone
ownership have allowed us to make great progress in delivering the
right information to people and businesses--at the time they need it.
For us, getting to this point is a dream. After fifty years, the
fruits of the weather information revolution are now within reach. We
can finally start delivering on the ultimate vision: individualized
weather information matched to every user's need, time, and place. With
that, we in the weather industry can do phenomenal new things, not only
for the Nation but also as leaders in the weather market
internationally. NOAA's newly-developed strategy, the Weather-Ready
Nation, is nicely aligned with this vision.
Why is this important? We have all been touched by the tragic
tornados in Oklahoma, Alabama, and Illinois over the past few years,
and by the devastation of Superstorm Sandy. With Sandy, we were
successful in anticipating an unusual westward turn toward New York
City--it made a huge difference in our preparedness. For Oklahoma, we
forecast with over 30 minutes lead time, but more accurate track
estimates and personalized communications would have helped. Getting
the right information to people and businesses at the right time is
critical.
A Growth Engine for the Economy
We know more can be done to protect lives and property, and we must
do so. But often forgotten is the importance of weather information as
a growth engine for our economy. A recent study showed that, on a
state-by-state basis, variability in U.S. economic output due to
weather-related supply and demand inefficiencies averages more than 3
percent. In some states, it is over 10 percent. A significant portion
of this can be recovered as economic growth through improved weather
information. Doing so would be a huge boost to the Nation's welfare. As
we seek ways to grow our economy, better use of weather information can
provide large returns from small investments. This is true across
virtually all business sectors.
Many of us today, from academia to NOAA to the commercial sector,
are focused on ways to accomplish this. The commercial sector is
expanding because there are customers within the public and the
business sector who derive real value from what we do. My startup
company is a perfect example. In some cases, we are having trouble
keeping up with the demand because it is growing so fast. I would like
to provide three examples from my own company's experience reflecting
innovative approaches to business growth through better use of weather
information.
The BH Media Group, owned by Berkshire Hathaway, has
recently acquired nearly 100 small-and mid-sized newspapers.
Their vision is that newspaper companies are not dying, but
rather the best source of critical local information, which
will be delivered by these companies increasingly over web and
mobile. Accurate weather forecasts are often the most important
information they provide to smaller communities. The move to
web and mobile allows them to customize forecasts for each
reader, creating new ways for businesses to become more
efficient and individuals more productive. My company is
helping them implement the vision.
Xcel Energy is the off-taker utility for 10 percent of
America's wind farm capacity. Starting in 2009, Xcel privately-
funded R&D at the National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCAR), focused on improving the accuracy of wind forecasts.
The resulting forecast system has since been successfully
transitioned to my company. Its operational use has saved over
$22 million for Xcel ratepayers.
Telogis is a provider of information services to the
commercial vehicle industry, including back office and in-cab
navigation. They support nearly a million trucks in the U.S. In
2011, this industry lost nearly $18 billion to weather-related
accidents and delays, yet weather information is not routinely
used by trucking companies. My company is working with Telogis
to change that, providing atmospheric weather and road surface
conditions for every mile of major road through interfaces that
can be easily and safely used by truckers.
The Remarkable Weather Enterprise
None of this could happen without a remarkable collaboration
between three organizational sectors: academia, government agencies
such as NOAA and the DOD weather services, and the commercial sector.
We refer to this as the American weather enterprise. Academic and
research organizations (which may involve all three of the sectors) are
the foundation, providing the basic knowledge that drives innovation
and the education for our workforce. Government agencies including NOAA
provide the core data and forecast capabilities used across the
enterprise. The commercial sector customizes information for end-users
and delivers it across many channels, through what we call the
secondary value-chain (direct delivery to the public by NWS is the
primary value-chain). For example, though NOAA is the original source
for virtually all weather information in this nation, today 95 percent
of delivery occurs through this secondary value-chain via television,
websites, and apps from the commercial sector. By working together,
this enterprise has greatly improved the quality of weather forecasting
and the ability to deliver that information effectively. Collaboration
allows us to be bigger than the sum of our three parts--a key reason
for our success. Barry Myers of AccuWeather, in prior testimony to the
House, described the American weather enterprise as ``better than
anywhere on Earth'', and I fully agree with his statement.
This shining example of how government works productively with the
academic and commercial sectors can be held up to other industries to
help them do the same. But it has not always been this way. We have
worked hard at making this happen. Indeed, we are entering what might
be called the third phase of our enterprise. The first phase, through
the 1990s, was characterized by mistrust and competition, particularly
between the government and commercial sectors. A decade ago a National
Research Council report called Fair Weather laid out a process for
fixing the situation, and the result has been dramatic. It led us into
a second phase of the enterprise characterized by communication and
mutual respect. We have made much progress as a result. As we enter the
third phase, much deeper collaboration is needed. We are just beginning
to build the mechanisms that make this possible, such as a recent AMS-
led pilot effort to identify enterprise-wide priorities for forecasting
improvement. We need more collaboration like this if we are to meet the
Nation's growing needs.
A portion of our community put forth a proposal last fall to form a
congressionally-chartered Weather Commission, similar to the successful
Oceans Commission about a decade ago. This, some believed, would allow
us to address policy issues at a level appropriate to their national
importance. A group of community leaders, representing the commercial
sector, academia, and non-profits, met in March at a summit in Dallas
to consider this along with alternatives. AMS co-sponsored and
facilitated the meeting. The Dallas group released last spring a
proclamation in which we agreed to a two-prong approach. In the near-
term, we are building an advocacy organization called the Weather
Coalition and use that as a voice for the community, particularly with
regard to possible legislation. For the longer-term, we will pursue
options for foundational change, including the possibility of a Weather
Commission. The Dallas meeting was a milestone in our ability to speak
with a unified voice. You will be hearing from the Weather Coalition in
the near future, and they will work with you on any legislation as it
progresses.
The Weather Coalition, however, will be only the face of a much
larger community-driven planning activity. Much of the planning input
to guide the Weather Coalition will come from professional
organizations such as AMS which have the broad membership to access and
organize community thinking. For example, the AMS-led forecast
improvement group, which I mentioned previously, brings together our
three sectors to explore development of a joint plan for the Nation's
forecast capabilities. The resulting recommendations are publicly
available.
Building A Better Enterprise
We are not without flaws as an enterprise. Over the last decade and
more, we have struggled with our satellite system and worked to stay
competitive with our European counterparts in weather forecast models.
We have labored to build mechanisms that help us collaborate across the
enterprise and speak with a single voice. NOAA in particular has faced
challenges in areas such as the transition from research to operations
and major systems procurement. These issues have been openly documented
in reports from the National Research Council, the National Academy of
Public Administration, and NOAA's own Science Advisory Board.
Such reports reflect broad input from the community and
professional advisory groups. It is time to heed this advice and start
implementing the changes needed to fulfill the vision, including NOAA's
Weather-Ready Nation. Legislation that can accelerate this, and in
particular motivate the cultural and organizational changes within NOAA
recommended in these reports, is welcome. This must be done wisely and
incrementally. Moving forward, additional planning guidance will become
available from the Weather Coalition and other sources.
I have talked mostly in terms of weather for the sake of
simplicity, but it is important to realize how our strength derives
from a breadth of disciplines. For example, we increasingly recognize
that space weather is a fundamental counterpart to atmospheric weather.
Hydrology and oceanography are key sister disciplines. Disciplines such
as coastal meteorology have specific but essential roles. Inclusion and
cross-disciplinary integration is something we must prioritize.
Climate is increasingly an important piece of high-quality weather
forecasts, especially as the demand for longer lead-time forecasts
grows. For the real world in which my company operates, weather and
climate can't be separated. There just is no good place to draw a line
between them. Indeed, forecasts for coming seasons are enormously
valuable to companies in energy and agriculture. The travel and leisure
industries take an even longer view; they can benefit directly from
improved forecasts of the El Ninno cycle even years ahead. Construction
companies need to anticipate flood zones and coastal erosion decades
out. Our commodities markets--from heating oil to orange juice--could
not function without seasonal climate forecasts.
A Path Forward
The issues we must address to make progress are not simple. The
problems are interlinked. For NOAA, the solutions require collaboration
across many of its organizational elements. Increasingly, NOAA must
extend this collaboration to include the enterprise--public, academic,
and commercial--as a whole. As we seek ways to move forward, the
leadership of our community, including those within NOAA, should be
encouraged to innovate and to bring forth new ideas for improving how
we work. Truly novel approaches to public-private partnerships that
enable open data access and low-cost use of commercial data--not just
the old data buy paradigm--are but two examples. Rather than
prescribing specific methodologies, legislation that promotes broad
innovation in response to community guidance, and provides the
resources to accomplish it, would produce results.
Unlike most people who have the honor to serve as AMS president, my
career has not been entirely within the field of weather or climate. In
addition to weather, I have also worked in consumer software and
satellite construction, serving commercial, scientific, and military
customers. That gives me a bit of an outsider perspective. My
experience is that the people in this field--and I enthusiastically
include those in NOAA--are the most dedicated, passionate, and
innovative people I have ever met. They have one focus: make the Nation
safer and more productive. That commitment to integrity is a rare
quality today. In your role as legislators, this can be leveraged to
improve our Nation. I believe organizations need to change and
progress, and that NOAA would benefit from further focus on
modernization. The people within our community can be the foundation
for that change.
Success for the Nation
The recommendations in our NRC report Second to None, along with
those from other advisory reports, provide a sound basis for moving
forward. My personal view is that Congress can help make U.S. readiness
in weather, water, and climate a reality, and ensure our ongoing
leadership of the world community, by focusing on five simple yet
fundamental principles:
Put Forth Visionary Framing. Frame the goal of U.S. weather
readiness as a core national priority, at the level of national
security, through appropriately visionary legislation
Rely on Expert Advice. Build on the excellent existing
community advice, including formal advisory reports
Define a Path for Change. Work with us to define a path for
successful change, involving all three enterprise sectors and
built on transparent processes
Include All Enterprise Elements. Ensure that this change
enables all three enterprise sectors and all needed disciplines
to best serve the Nation and position the U.S. as a global
leader in weather, water, and climate services
Allocate Effective Authority. Provide the right authority
and direction to those in government and across the enterprise
who are committed to making such changes and achieving the goal
of U.S. weather readiness so they can move forward effectively
in its pursuit.
Thank you, once again, for the invitation to testify. I am happy to
answer any questions the Subcommittee might have.
Senator Begich. Thank you very much.
We just got notified the vote has started. So we'll do, if
we can--thank you for being patient--we'll just pause here for
enough time for us to go there and vote, and when Senator
Schatz comes back here he'll chair the meeting and continue the
panel. So if you can just hang tight and relax. I almost said
have a drink, but I meant have water.
But please be patient while we go do our vote here.
Thank you very much.
[Recess from 11:28 a.m. to 11:29 a.m.]
Senator Schatz [presiding]. Thank you very much, Dr. Gail.
Mr. Young, please proceed. Mr. Young, thank you.
STATEMENT OF A. THOMAS YOUNG, CHAIR, SATELLITE INDEPENDENT
REVIEW TEAM, NOAA
Mr. Young. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. I'm pleased
to have the opportunity to present the results of an
independent review of the United States civil weather satellite
enterprise. I had the privilege to chair the initial
independent review in 2012 and a follow up review in 2013. The
findings and recommendations are documented in publicly
available reports dated July 20, 2012, and November 8, 2013.
Data provided by NOAA satellites in geosynchronous and
polar orbits are mandatory to have accurate, reliable weather
forecasting and severe storm warnings. Without accurate,
reliable forecasts and warnings, lives, property, and the
United States economy are at risk. For more than four decades,
the United States has had a robust satellite program that has
provided the data to support our incredible weather forecasting
system. We have come to take for granted this exceptional
capability that has become a critical element of the fabric of
our society.
Today this robust capability continues with the
geosynchronous system. Current operating systems and future
systems under development, namely GOES-R, will serve our Nation
well. The GOES-R series is dependent upon funding to maintain
schedule to assure there is no gap in the continuity of data.
The status of the polar-orbiting system is more precarious.
Currently our weather and severe storm forecasting capability
is dependent upon satellites that are operating beyond their
design life and a research and development satellite whose data
is now used operationally.
Future capability is dependent upon the Joint Polar-
orbiting Satellite System, called JPSS, which is under
development. JPSS is the only approved future United States
polar-orbiting weather satellite program.
Numerous previous decisions have resulted in a fragile,
non-robust, polar-orbiting architecture. Current plans for JPSS
will result in several years of operation that is one failure
from a gap providing data for weather and severe storm
forecasting. This is an unacceptable position for data so
critical to lives, property, and the economy. There is an
unacceptably high probability of a gap in JPSS polar-orbiting
data that could have a duration of months or years. The severe
implications of such a gap make it mandatory that a gap-filler
satellite program be initiated immediately and urgent changes
in the JPSS program be implemented to establish a robust
program with a ``two failure to have a gap'' criterion.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
[The prepared statement of Mr. Young follows:]
Prepared Statement of A. Thomas Young, Chair,
Satellite Independent Review Team, NOAA
I am pleased to have the opportunity to present the results of an
independent review of the United States civil weather satellite
enterprise.
I had the privilege to chair the initial independent review in 2012
and a follow-up review in 2013. Findings and recommendations are
documented in publicly available reports dated July 20, 2012, and
November 8, 2013.
Data provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) satellites in geosynchronous and polar orbits are mandatory to
have accurate/reliable weather forecasting and severe storm warnings.
Without accurate/reliable forecasts and warnings lives, property and
the U.S. economy are at risk.
For more than four decades the United States has had a robust
satellite program that has provided the data to support our incredible
weather forecasting system. We have come to take for granted this
exceptional capability that has become a critical element of the fabric
of our society.
Today, this robust capability continues for the geosynchronous
system. Current operating systems and the future system under
development, the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
(GOES)-R series, will serve our Nation well. The GOES-R series is
dependent upon funding to maintain schedule to assure there is no gap
in the continuity of data.
The status of the polar orbiting system is more precarious.
Currently, our weather and severe storm forecasting capability is
dependent upon satellites that are operating beyond their design life
and a research and development (R&D) satellite whose data is now used
operationally. Future capability is dependent upon the Joint Polar-
orbiting Satellite System, JPSS, which is under development. JPSS is
the only approved future United States polar-orbiting weather satellite
program. Numerous previous decisions have resulted in a fragile, non-
robust polar-orbiting architecture. Some of the decisions were made
with the best of intentions but resulted in negative unintended--some
highly adverse--consequences. Current plans for JPSS will result in
several years of operation that is one failure from a gap in providing
data for weather and severe storm forecasting. This is an unacceptable
position for data so critical to lives, property, and the economy.
There is an unacceptably high probability of a gap in JPSS polar-
orbiting satellite data that could have a duration of months or years.
The severe implications of such a gap make it mandatory that a gap
filler satellite program be initiated immediately and urgent changes in
the JPSS program be implemented to establish a robust program with a
``two failure to have a gap'' criterion.
Thank you.
______
A. Thomas Young
A. Thomas Young joined NASA in 1961. He was Mission Director for
the Viking Project, Director of the Planetary Program, Deputy Director
of the Ames Research Center and Director of the Goddard Space Flight
Center.
Mr. Young joined the Martin Marietta Corporation in 1982. He is the
former President and COO of Martin Marietta. He retired from Lockheed
Martin in 1995.
Following retirement, he has been on Corporate Boards and lead
numerous Committees and Review Teams associated with national security
and civil space.
Mr. Young is the former Chairman of SAIC.
Mr. Young is a member of the National Academy of Engineering.
Senator Schatz. Thank you very much, Mr. Young.
Mr. Myers, please proceed.
STATEMENT OF BARRY LEE MYERS, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER,
ACCUWEATHER, INC.
Mr. Myers. Thank you for inviting me to speak here today.
The United States has some of the most violent and
challenging weather on Earth--tornadoes, hurricanes, lightning,
hail, snow, ice, and floods. In fact, we have more tornadoes
than any nation and we have four times those of what Europe
has.
We can and must do more relative to severe weather. People
should not live in fear in America's heartland, in its cities,
and along its coasts. Imagine being able to tell people an hour
or two in advance to move out of the zone of danger and to have
them watch a tornado from miles away.
This year marks the fiftieth anniversary of AccuWeather's
creation, and I can tell you that 50 years ago weather
forecasting was more art than science. A tornado might form at
night in the darkness, unknown to those in its deadly path,
with no radar to help a forecaster spot a hook echo. A storm
like Sandy without a weather satellite would have thought to
have moved way out into the ocean, only to return as a
surprise. It might have been like the great Galveston hurricane
of 1900 that no one knew was coming because there were not
satellites in space watching.
In the United States, the National Weather Service,
America's weather industry, and the academic and research
communities each have important and complementary roles to
play. Together they make up the American weather enterprise and
that's an enterprise with a capital ``E''. It's a unique and
special partnership for the benefit of the Nation.
Fifty years ago, if I had told anyone that a company like
AccuWeather in State College, Pennsylvania, would tell a
manufacturing facility in Mississippi 1,000 miles away, 21
minutes in advance, that a tornado might strike the plant and
that we could save 88 lives in a single electronic message, it
wouldn't have been believed, but in fact it has been done, and
those and similar situations happen now routinely.
The U.S. Government collects and disseminates data from
local and remote sensing platforms. It runs forecast models and
prepares and makes special warnings. Weather companies and
academic and research institutions use this information and
also collect and disseminate data and make weather forecasts
and warnings, some specific and tailored and some general
public. These companies may be international media companies,
such as AccuWeather and the Weather Channel, serving billions
of people with instant weather information.
This joint system of public and private cooperation helps
to save countless lives and prevent hundreds of millions of
dollars in property damage per year here in the United States,
and in fact it has the name of ``public-private partnership.''
It has been a transition of work from government to private
industry that has occurred over decades with no letting of
government contracts, no industry subsidies, and no cost to the
government. It has been held up as a model by other Federal
agencies and even a recent Executive Order by President Obama.
Even the Weather-Ready Nation program now specifically endorses
the role of America's weather industry.
Recently, the National Academy of Sciences report ``Second
to None'' and the National Academy of Public Administration
report have been published, and in a nutshell I really read
them to say that growing the secondary value chain in the
weather enterprise is not a choice; it is a market reality
which benefits the Nation and needs to be supported and
accelerated.
The government is uniquely positioned to ensure and enhance
the provision of weather data and the issuance of warnings for
the public aimed at the protection of life and property. We all
need to protect this core functionality and the research that
keeps the entire American enterprise in the weather field, and
that's ``Enterprise'' with a capital ``E,'' ahead of the curve.
A special focus during Superstorm Sandy was the ECMWF, the
so-called European model, which did a better job only at some
points in the storm track than the U.S. models did. The gap,
though, presents issues from an economic, safety, and national
security standpoint. Relying on other countries for better
weather models, for satellite data, or for other information
exclusively and not with regard to ones that we can rely on in
America as the best places us in a weak and subservient
position.
If America is to remain, the world weather leader, if the
American weather industry is to remain the envy of the world
and the carrier of American weather brands' value and prestige
abroad and here at home, the core of the best public weather
access of any nation, and a creator of jobs, weather research
and development and creation and operation of core
infrastructure remain a matter of national government concern
and urgency.
Thank you for your time.
[The prepared statement of Mr. Myers follows:]
Prepared Statement of Barry Lee Myers, Chief Executive Officer,
AccuWeather, Inc.
Chairman Begich, Ranking Member Rubio, and distinguished members of
the Subcommittee: I appreciate the opportunity to testify today on this
important issue.
My name is Barry Lee Myers and I have been with AccuWeather since
it was founded by my older brother in 1962.
I served as Executive Vice President and General Counsel for many
years and in 2007 became the Chief Executive Officer.
The 50 year odyssey from the founding of AccuWeather until today's
hearing is a study in the evolution; and a story whose pages continue
to be written daily.
On average, the United States experiences 100,000 thunderstorms
annually, resulting in more than 1,200 tornadoes. The tornado is the
most violent storm on Earth.
The United States has more tornados than any nation; in fact, we
have four times the number in all of Europe.
We also report more violent EF4 and EF5 tornadoes than anywhere
else.
When hit by a powerful tornado, often entire buildings are
destroyed . . . sometimes literally wiped off the face of the earth.
We saw the devastating and heart sickening results again in 2013.
The Magic of Weather Forecasting
Meteorology is a rewarding field and also, like the job of first
responders, one often filled with gratitude and horror, all at the same
time.
Those in the field of meteorology have the ability to tell, with
significant accuracy, what the future will hold.
We can tell what the temperature will be tomorrow or next week and
whether it will be sunny or cloudy.
We can tell whether in the next 30 minutes, people are likely to be
killed if they continue to stand where there are--in the path of a
tornado or tsunami.
Based on seeing the future, one can decide whether to start
planning to move the Sunday wedding indoors or under a tent. One can
decide to take shelter, or leave town, and save a life.
We have a Crystal Ball that allows us to know the future. It is a
privilege to have it. And it is a responsibility to continually improve
the tools we have, and might develop, to improve the clarity of that
crystal ball, to save lives and help people prosper.
The crystal ball in am referring to is not actually round and
clear; and when it is seen, one may not realize they saw it.
But there is a magic in meteorology.
From Government Operation to a Partnership Enterprise
This year marks the 50th Anniversary of AccuWeather's creation.
That is interesting in light of how far the weather enterprise, and
especially the weather industry, has come.
I will tell you that when the first customer of the company that
would grow to be AccuWeather signed up for $50 a month in 1962,
meteorology was still in relative infancy.
And what would become the American Weather Enterprise--consisting
of the U.S. Weather Bureau (later NOAA's National Weather Service),
academic and research organizations, and America's weather industry--
was not a full concept in 1962.
TIROS-1 was launched just two years earlier and had operated for 78
days. And the first recorded weather radar observation occurred only 9
years before.
Work building AccuWeather began around my older brother's kitchen
table with a single rotary dial telephone. Joel Myers made perhaps
10,000 calls to secure the first dozen or so customers in the first two
years.
So it would seem that the competitive landscape was wide open for
those who would make the effort.
But that was not so.
At the time, weather forecasting was more art, than science, and
even a forecast for a heavy snow storm just hours away might result in
a sunny afternoon.
And a tornado might form at night and in the darkness, unknown to
those in its deadly path--as no radar was there to help a forecaster
spot a hook echo signature.
A storm like Hurricane Sandy, without a weather satellite, would
have thought to have moved away out into the ocean and dissipated, only
to return as a deadly surprise. It would have been like the great
Galveston hurricane of 1900 that no one knew was coming, because there
were no eyes in the sky.
In 1962, most of the weather information reaching business,
industry, the media, and the public came from the United States Weather
Bureau--the government.
So, the idea of starting a weather company, literally on pocket
change, and competing with the government's free services, is the story
of AccuWeather . . . and American's weather industry in general.
When Joel and I were thinking through the weather company concept
in those early years--probably 95 percent of all the weather
information reaching the public came from the government.
Government employees did the weather broadcasts on radio.
Government employees did the newspaper weather maps and charts for
The Associated Press and many newspapers.
Government employees consulted free with anyone who called them on
the phone or stopped into their offices, and provided special scheduled
services to large and small companies.
At the same time, as our business struggled to grow through the
1960s and 1970s, sometimes government employees discouraged potential
customers from using our services, calling them up and offering
services for ``free,'' at government expense.
It was like the Post Office and Federal Express, except it would be
like the Post Office offering to carry every letter without postage,
and every package for free. Why would someone use FedEx at all under
those circumstances.
Despite that, it is estimated today, that 95 percent of the weather
information reaching business and industry, the media, and the public
comes--not from the National Weather Service--but from AccuWeather and
other members of America's weather industry.
This is a complete reversal from 1962.
Basis for America's Weather Success
In 1994, I was asked to offer thoughts to the U.N.'s World
Meteorological Organization about weather information and its use. What
I said was, in part:
Weather is a world-wide resource.
In gathering weather information, time is of the essence.
In analyzing it, and in distributing the results of that
analysis of weather observations, time is critical.
And, in getting this analysis into the hands of those who
need it to protect life and property, not only is time
critical, but the very nature of the message and its
understandability and related action-ability needed by those
receiving it, is paramount.
In the United States, the National Weather Service has a specific
role to play and America's weather industry has a specific role to
play. Each have important and complementary roles to play. It is a
unique environment and special partnership for the benefit of the
public.
The laws of the United States do not hamper or restrict the nature
of the private sector. In fact, unlike many other countries, they
encourage private sector and especially weather industry activities.
This has been a huge benefit to the Nation.
The United States Government collects, and disseminates data from
local and remote sensor platforms, runs forecast models, and prepares
and makes special warnings and also general public forecasts.
Weather companies also collect and disseminate data, and make
weather forecasts, some specific and tailored, prepare and make special
warnings and also general public forecasts.
Weather companies also develop communication methods designed to
move weather information as quickly and as understandably as possible
to the end user.
Weather companies are part science company and part media and
communications company.
In fact, the government and the weather industry work together, to
carry out these functions.
This joint system of public and private cooperation helps to save
countless lives and prevent hundreds of millions of dollars in property
damage per year in the United States--in fact it has a name--The
Public/Private Partnership.
This cooperative effort, better than anywhere else on earth, is
dedicated to the proposition that weather information is (1) highly
time sensitive and (2) a perishable scientific commodity, which, if
utilized quickly and communicated to people who are in a position to
act, effects real economic efficiencies, saves lives, and, results in
benefit to the Nation.
Another guiding principle is that all scientists should be free to
access scientific data so that they may render timely viewpoints and
opinions on what future weather may be--that is create forecasts and
warnings.
This freedom of access to scientific data and its free use for the
benefit of society is typically American.
In the United States this ``free and open access'' is founded upon
principles having to do with free speech and freedom of information.
These comments seem self-evident to many. In making remarks to the
World Meteorological Organization, almost 20 years ago, comments about
free and open access did not seem self-evident to many of the hundreds
in the audience from around the world.
The weather industry in the United States was born of the concept
of ``free and open'' availability of weather information.
It has led the world as a model of growing success, transitioning
from a government agency ``doing it all,'' at the end of World War II,
to massive infusion of weather into every American's life through
companies like AccuWeather--and a growing global presence by American
companies as the preferred suppliers of weather to the world.
It has been a transition of work from the government to private
industry involving no letting of government contracts, no industry
subsidies, and no cost to the government.
In fact a tax paying industry creating perhaps tens of thousands of
jobs--has been born.
It truly has built on a concept that if information is free for
all, we should leave the rest to ingenious, innovative, and
entrepreneurs, who would find ways to make a viable industry.
By the end of 2013, figures suggest that American Weather Companies
will have weather apps and access portals on or accessible from perhaps
two billion digital devices worldwide.
People who had no weather forecast of merit for 25 minutes ahead,
now have forecasts, on an hour by hour basis, for 25 days ahead on
AccuWeather.com.
People who had no warnings for severe and deadly weather, now can
use at a device that looks like something they would have used to ask
Scotty to beam them up, that contains more information than Star Trek
creators ever imagined.
These comments seem self-evident to many today.
In speaking at the WMO in 1994 if I had told anyone that by 2008 a
private weather company in Pennsylvania would tell a manufacturing
facility in Mississippi, a thousand miles away, 21 minutes in advance,
that a severe tornado was heading right at it and they needed to
shelter their people--and that the private weather warning would save
88 lives in a single electronic message--it would not have been
believed.
In 2005 the U.S. Congress Bi-partisan Committee on the review of
Hurricane Katrina cited AccuWeather saying ``AccuWeather issued a
forecast predicting the target of Katrina's landfall nearly 12 hours
before the NHC [National Hurricane Center] issued its first warning,
and argued the extra time could have aided evacuation of the region.''
I am not telling you this to place AccuWeather in the spotlight. My
friends at The Weather Channel and at many other non-governmental
organizations have this and other important capabilities.
Everywhere within the American Weather Enterprise there are
meteorologists, scientists, researchers, and professionals of all kinds
of equal merit.
But the government is uniquely positioned to ensure and enhance the
provision of weather data and the issuance of warnings for the public
aimed at the protection of life and property.
These activities also require research and development, transfer of
knowledge, technologies and applications to other government agencies
and the private sector.
And this is needed with regard to advanced radar technologies,
aerial observing systems, high performance computing networks, advanced
forecast modeling and other government-appropriate activities.
We all need to protect this core functionality and the research by
the government that keeps the entire American weather enterprise ahead
of the curve.
America's Unique Weather Enterprise
If we want to successfully approach the present problems the
weather enterprise may face we should understand that the huge success
we have had, did not occur serendipitously.
It may have followed a sometimes indirect path, but the path as
supported through decades of sustained effort and shared vision in the
weather enterprise.
AccuWeather's Mission Statement begins: ``To save lives, protect
property, and help people prosper. . . .'' The mission is substantially
similar to that of NOAA's National Weather Service.
In 1980 the paperwork Reduction Act was passed. The law stated its
purpose was to, among other things ensure the greatest possible public
benefit from information created, collected, maintained, used, shared,
and disseminated by or for the Federal Government.
It also said one of its purposes was to provide for the
dissemination of public information on a timely basis, on equitable
terms, and in a manner that promotes the utility of the information to
the public and makes effective use of information technology.
In follow up to the law, the Office of Management and Budget issued
Circular A-130, which was updated over the following decades.
The Circular is lengthy, but states in part:
The free flow of information between the government and the
public is essential to a democratic society. It requires
dissemination of information on equitable and timely terms.
It states the government must avoid establishing, or
permitting others to establish on their behalf, exclusive,
restricted, or other distribution arrangements that interfere
with the availability of information dissemination on a timely
or equitable basis.
It declares agencies shall avoid establishing restrictions
or regulations, including the charging of fees or royalties, on
the re-use, resale, or re-dissemination of Federal information,
setting user charges at a level only sufficient to recover the
cost of dissemination, but no higher.
Under Section 105 of the Copyright Act of the United States, in
general, government information is not entitled to domestic copyright
protection declaring it free--domestically.
The 1991 NWS Public Private Partnership Policy was an early
cooperative attempt to implement concepts from the Paperwork Reduction
Act, Circular A-130 and issues relating to the growing weather
industry.
About ten years later the National Research Council was requested
by the National Weather Service to undertake a study of the status of
the enterprise and the Fair Weather Report was issued in 2003.
This led to the AMS Commission on Weather and Climate Enterprise.
And, the Fair Weather Report led to a new partnership policy issued
by NOAA governing its relationship with America's weather industry.
In the main policy section, the first sentence says: ``NOAA will
adhere to the policies contained in the Paperwork Reduction Act, OMB
Circular A-130 and other relevant laws.''
The second sentence says: ``These policies are based on the premise
that government information is a valuable national resource, and the
benefits to society are maximized when government information is
available in a timely and equitable manner to all.''
It goes on to endorse ``Open and unrestricted access.''
And further that NOAA will promote the open and unrestricted
exchange of environmental information worldwide.
NOAA also states it will avoid duplication and competition in areas
not related to the NOAA mission.
So today's policies trace their origins to the core nature of the
republic and critical pieces of Federal legislation and rules long a
part of the fabric of the country's legal structure.
Building on this, NOAA and NWS have developed formal and internal
directives defining what they will do and not do and specifically
stating where government personal will defer to the America's weather
industry.
Even the Weather Ready Nation program now specifically endorses the
role of America's weather industry and states that the requirements and
activities of Weather Ready Nation participants may be fulfilled
through arrangements with America's weather industry.
Recently, the National Academy of Sciences report ``Weather
Services for the Nation: Becoming Second to None;'' and, the National
Academy of Public Administration report ``Forecast for the Future:
Assuring the Capacity of the National Weather Service'' have been
published. Both support the primary tenant that reflects the reality of
the state of the Weather Enterprise and the continuing robust growth of
America's weather industry.
Essentially, in a nutshell, they state that growing the ``secondary
value chain'' in the weather enterprise is not a choice for the
government; it is a market reality which benefits the Nation and needs
to be unconditionally supported and accelerated by NOAA's NWS.
Methods of doing this include, but are not limited to, developing,
acquiring, supporting, maintaining and making available core
infrastructure; data, models, warnings, and support for the public and
the weather industry. This leverages government investments in high
multiples.
A recent example of the recognition of this important concept is
found in the Open Data Executive Order signed by President Obama on May
9, 2013, which stated:
``For example, decades ago, the Federal Government made both
weather data and the Global Positioning System (GPS) freely
available to anyone. Since then, American entrepreneurs and
innovators have used these resources to create navigation
systems, weather newscasts and warning systems, location-based
applications, precision farming tools, and much more.''
Interesting, the effective use of the Nation's weather data also
depends on the GPS system to assist mobile devices locate themselves to
provide their users with weather information geared to their location,
because all weather is local in its affect to the location of people in
its greatest impact.
Nature of America's Weather Industry Success
America's Weather Industry is the most robust weather industry
existing in the world today.
AccuWeather and other companies in the weather industry are out of
the kitchen, and into every ones garage, home, television, radio,
newspaper, Internet, and mobile device.
Weather is on the gas pump where you fuel your car or truck.
It is on the electronic signage in your doctor's office or retail
store.
It is on the counter of the check-in desk at the hotel where you
stay.
If products travel by rail or truck, America's weather industry
helps get them to the Nation.
If food is served, the weather industry helped grow it and assisted
the commodities traders who transacted in it.
In banking or financial services the industry helps customers be
more efficient and better able to pay their loans and increase their
deposits.
In insurance, the weather industry helps in planning for loss
reserves and adjusting customers' claims after a weather-related loss.
Weather is about the national economy.
No matter the business, the weather industry can protect property,
increase efficiencies, and save lives.
The weather is also the news every day.
It is the single most accessed piece of information watched,
listened for, or selected on radio, television, the wired web, and
mobile devices.
You can watch local weather channels.
You can access the AccuWeather forecast on AccuWeather.com from
anywhere on earth.
AccuWeather and other weather sources are available on just about
any mobile phone or other mobile device you carry and your friends and
family might carry.
And the AccuWeather mobile website is available globally and in 48
languages and a hundred dialects.
You find it as a widget you can click on, on the screen of your new
television set.
So weather is a media phenomenon, and it drives weather companies
that wish to be successful--to become media companies--with weather as
their core information.
While the weather may be interesting to many, and of economic
importance to others, accuracy of weather information is the most
important secret sauce of the weather--for businesses, government, and
the public.
And the secret sauce potentiating accuracy--is communication.
The most accurate forecast or warning, not communicated in an
effective and timely way, not understood and not leading to action, is
merely a theoretical exercise.
As a result, many weather companies are media companies empowering
all weather information to be actionable and empowering businesses and
people who receive it to use it to their advantage.
So, it is estimated that over two billion electronic devices world-
wide can access the information from America's weather companies. I
know that AccuWeather alone serves up about one quadrillion separate
``pieces'' of data annually to global users.
And jobs continue to be created in this and the related device and
communications sectors to support this growth. Many of these are
quality American jobs.
But the fact that America's weather industry is the most robust on
the world today does not mean the American Weather Enterprise has the
best tools at its disposal that is possible.
There is room for enhancement, there is room for improvement.
And improvement in the field of meteorology means saving lives and
property.
Success Stories from the Partnership
Often warnings are issued by the government for tornados.
Usually community-warning sirens go off.
On February 5, 2008, at about 5:37 PM, a Caterpillar company plant
in Oxford, Mississippi, was bustling with activity, as 88 people were
at work.
No government tornado warning extended to the location of the
plant.
No warning siren was sounded.
In the winter darkness miles away, a tornado dipped from the sky,
unseen by the naked eye, and began racing toward the plant.
Twenty-one minutes later the violent tornado struck the plant with
a horrifying fury ripping and chewing the plant to pieces.
Steel girders twisted and collapsed, metal walls shredded.
All that debris fell in to the space people occupied inside.
The calm orderly work environment was suddenly a violent swirling
mass of shrapnel, totally exposed to the monster storm.
It left a picture of a plant perhaps hit by an aerial bomb or a
terrorist attack. People would be lucky to have survived.
As the monster tornado formed in the darkness that winter night and
began to dip from the sky, and started its race toward the people in
the Caterpillar plant, a meteorologist at our office in Wichita was at
work.
He saw a tornado signature on a radar image on a computer screen.
He didn't just ``happen'' to see it. He was looking for it.
He knew what circumstances could lead to a tornado that night.
He had cutting-edge computer tools, developed by, and proprietary
to AccuWeather, that notified him to be on guard.
He had access to the government's Doppler radar system; that did
not exist in 1962 when AccuWeather began.
At another time, or in another place, he might have looked on in
horror wondering what humanity the monster storm would claim.
Instead, he pressed a key stroke and an AccuWeather computer sent
an electronic message to another computer at the Caterpillar plant in
Oxford, Mississippi.
A human at the plant was required to confirm receipt of the
message.
In fact, a person-to-person telephone contact was also immediately
established with the plant's safety director.
The message was clear; a tornado was forming about 30 miles
southwest of the plant, and may be at or near the plant in about 22
minutes.
The first images of the destroyed plant were seen by the people who
worked at the plant, not as they watched the horror around them, not as
they and their co-workers were contemplating death, but as they emerged
from their tornado shelter, after the tornado had done its destructive
work and moved on.
Not a single person was injured, not a single person died. They all
went home--shaken, but safe.
Hundreds of miles away, an AccuWeather meteorologist also went
home--shaken, but safe.
He went home knowing he had just saved the lives of scores of
people, and the misery that death and injury would have brought to
their families.
The government/private sector collaboration worked. A government
radar network and a private weather company, working together, saved
lives.
Why Support the American Weather Enterprise?
Questions arise as other governments in other nations invest in
improved modeling both in accuracy and timeliness.
This means others can forecast better for American shores than
America itself.
Of special focus was the ECMWF (so called European Model) during
Hurricane Sandy, which model did a better job at some points in the
storm track, than the U.S. models did.
This gap presents issues from an economic, safety, and national
security standpoint.
From an economic standpoint foreign companies and investors could
potentially get the jump on Americans relative to weather events
occurring on American shores.
Additionally, as America's weather industry continues to expand
worldwide, restricted access to quality models could place it in a
position of having second class primary information.
And interestingly, many foreign governments do not look at the
weather industry as their partners, like we do here in America. And so
those countries do not get to leverage the value of their government
investment, like we do here. So a dollar spent on improved modeling,
for example, in America, has greater value to our economy than a dollar
spent by other governments.
Relying on other countries, for better weather models, places
America in a weakened position in time of national and international
crisis. And we cannot get full access even to the European Model from
what my government sources tell me.
Weather infrastructure and related research and development, and
operation of core infrastructure remain a matter of national urgency
today.
They are matters of national security.
Many functions that were only government functions at the dawn of
the development of America's weather industry 50 years ago--such as
media weather forecasting, business targeted weather forecasting, and
general public weather forecasting have been subsumed by America's
weather industry.
Even some data sources such as mesonets and lightning networks have
been taken under the wing of private sector entities. This is a
positive trend saving government expenditures and we can expect to see
privatization of other remote sensing platforms such as satellites.
The caution here is that privately developed data, in order to
enter the core data set, needs to be publicly available to all those
who need it in the weather enterprise, if the government is to buy it
and sanction it, to secure a common data set for the whole weather
enterprise, lest we fragment the very uniformity of core data that
drives the whole enterprise.
Much remains, and may forever need to remain, government
functionality. But much has been converted to private sector activity
and much will continue to migrate there.
So I entreat you to consider joining with me to support five
primary tenets:
1. To empower and facilitate the American weather enterprise to
achieve its full potential
2. To define the value chain of all parts of the American weather
enterprise, as stated in the recent NAPA report, to ensure the
American public is served with the best possible information
employing the most cost efficient combination of private and
public institutions.
3. To place special focus and funding on NOAA/NWS role as the
builder of the Nation's core weather infrastructure, core data
sensing, core research and model development, operational
modeling, public warnings for weather events that pose imminent
threat to life and property, and working with and through
America's weather industry, to achieve national and world-wide
leadership in weather and weather media.
4. To focus Federal support to ensure a legislative and budgetary
agenda which makes maximum and optimum use of all parts, public
and private, of the American weather enterprise.
5. And to encourage the execution of the aligned missions and roles
through public and private partnerships based on principles
that will drive continuing growth of the weather enterprise.
Thank you for your time.
Senator Schatz. Thank you very much.
Mr. Hirn.
STATEMENT OF RICHARD J. HIRN, GENERAL COUNSEL AND LEGISLATIVE
DIRECTOR, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
EMPLOYEES ORGANIZATION
Mr. Hirn. Thank you, Senator Schatz, Senator Blumenthal.
The Weather Service Employees Organization is proud of the
fact that the operational Weather Service employees have been
the primary source of most of the innovation undertaken by the
Weather Service in recent years. Regrettably, however, the
agency has been disinvesting in its human capital by drastic
workforce reductions and the elimination of virtually all
training. In so doing, the agency is placing the American
people at risk and cutting off the source of future innovation.
No new satellite, supercomputer, forecast model, or valued
private sector partner will reduce the need for a highly
trained and fully staffed workforce.
Let me provide one recent and vivid example of how the
creativity and initiative of Weather Service employees have
saved lives. On Sunday, November 17, six states in the Midwest
experienced a dramatic late season tornado outbreak. The death
toll remained remarkably low due to the lifesaving warnings
issued by the men and women at nine forecast offices. But at
the time the agency was suffering from a widescale
communications failure. Weather Service employees were only
able to communicate with emergency managers, media, and the
public because employees in the field improvised emergency
communication channels.
As the Acting Director of the Weather Service Central
Region explained in a congratulatory e-mail to employees, ``The
excellence of your work has been attributed to directly saving
many lives that day. I know this was accomplished despite
challenges and communications problems which impeded our
ability to communicate with emergency managers and media
partners. In response, employees took appropriate steps to
improvise other measures, such as other Internet sources, WiFi
cards or telephones, and to create makeshift backup
communication techniques to ensure the Weather Service got its
message out.''
Dr. Uccellini also sent a congratulatory e-mail to
employees, writing that, ``This event was another example of
the important role that social media is playing getting the
message out. Forty-seven of the top 50 tweets sent by Federal
Government Twitter accounts on Sunday were warnings from the
Weather Service on severe weather. Your embrace of social media
is a growing success story.''
However, Weather Service field employees haven't just
embraced the use of social media for getting warnings out; they
pioneered it. Employees at local forecast offices started
creating Facebook pages on their own several years ago to
communicate with the Weather Service, but Weather Service
headquarters made them take the pages down for about a year
before realizing their full potential. Now all of the Nation's
forecast offices and river forecast centers have operational
Facebook pages.
Similarly, only after employees in the field started
tweeting weather warnings did the agency formally embrace and
sanction Twitter accounts.
Another employee initiative has transformed the way the
Weather Service communicates with emergency management
officials and the media. In 2004 employees at the Des Moines
Forecast Office, working with the Iowa State University
Environmental Mesonet, began using commercial Instant Messaging
and chatroom software to communicate with Iowa television
stations. Forecasters across the Nation now use what's known as
NWS Chat to exchange information with emergency managers and
media in real time during severe weather.
In 2011 the Weather Service implemented pilot projects at
six offices to test new service delivery models, such as
integrating environmental data from other NOAA agencies into
Weather Service products, providing enhanced face to face
decision support to emergency managers, and developing new
meso-scale forecasting models and techniques that hopefully
will enable the Weather Service to provide pinpoint highly
localized forecasts of severe weather outbreaks hours in
advance.
These pilot projects were an NWSEO initiative, which we
first proposed to the Deputy Under Secretary in 2010. The field
then submitted proposals for individual projects to a joint
labor-management relations committee, which selected the most
promising proposals, refined their objectives, and developed
implementing plans.
The Weather Service will, however, require more, not fewer,
employees to provide these enhanced services nationwide. But
unfortunately, even before sequestration the Weather Service
began shedding staff. Since 2008, the Weather Service has
eliminated hundreds of positions and over 8 percent of its
workforce, most of which is classified as emergency essential.
Service assessments following--conducted following eight
major storms that occurred since 2008, including Hurricane
Sandy, found that the agency performance was compromised due to
inadequate staffing. In the service assessment of Hurricane
Sandy, the assessment team gave this stark warning, ``If these
positions cannot be filled, the Weather Service should ensure
awareness at higher levels that the vacancies may result in
reduced levels of service, including potential failure on the
delivery of products and services during the next significant
weather event.''
Thank you for inviting me to present the views of NWSEO and
the 3600 employees we represent.
[The prepared statement of Mr. Hirn follows:]
Prepared Statement of Richard J. Hirn, General Counsel and Legislative
Director, National Weather Service Employees Organization
Chairman Begich, Ranking Member Rubio, and Members of the
Subcommittee, thank you for inviting me to present the views of the
National Weather Service Employees Organization and the 3,600 National
Weather Service employees it represents. Our members include the
forecasters, hydrologists, technicians and other scientific and support
personnel employed at 122 Forecast Offices; 13 River Forecast Centers;
the various NWS national forecasting centers such as the National
Hurricane Center in Miami and the Severe Storms Prediction Center in
Norman, Oklahoma; the tsunami warning centers in Alaska and Hawaii; and
at the NWS headquarters in Silver Spring, Maryland.
NWSEO is proud to say that the operational Weather Service
employees in the field have been the primary source of most of the
innovation in forecasting and service delivery undertaken by the NWS in
recent years, and the primary goal of our union is to enhance the
employment security of our members by developing and urging management
to adopt new and better ways to protect the American public from the
vicissitudes of severe weather. Regrettably, however, the agency has
been disinvesting in its human capital by drastic workforce reductions
and the elimination of virtually all training. In so doing, the agency
is placing the American people at risk and cutting off the source of
future innovation. No new satellite, supercomputer, forecast model or
private sector partner will reduce the need for a highly trained and
fully staffed NWS workforce.
Let me provide one recent and vivid example of how the creativity
and initiative of NWS employees in the field saves lives. On Sunday,
November 17, six states in the Midwest experienced a dramatic late-
season tornado outbreak, involving more than 40 tornados, including
several EF4 rated tornados. However, casualties remained remarkably low
due to the life-saving warnings issued by the men and women from at
least nine forecast offices. While the national press praised the work
of the National Weather Service, what they didn't know and didn't
report was that the NWS was at the time suffering from a wide-scale
communications and Internet failure that began several days before.
Forecasters were only able to communicate with emergency managers,
media and the public during this event because NWS employees in the
field improvised emergency communications channels. As the Acting
Director of the NWS Central Region explained in a congratulatory e-mail
message to employees:
The excellence of your work has been attributed to directly
saving many lives that day . . . I also know that this was
accomplished despite challenges of communications circuit
problems which impeded our ability to communicate with
Emergency Management and Media Partners. In response, NWS
employees took the appropriate steps to improvise other
measures, such as other Internet sources, WiFi cards or
telephones, to create makeshift backup communications
techniques to ensure that the NWS message got out.\1\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Although the Acting Central Region Director admitted to
employees that ``communications circuit problems which impeded our
ability to communicate with Emergency Management,'' existed, employees
were issued official ``talking points'' from NWS management advising
them to mislead to the press: ``If asked about internal communications
network issues, `Internal communication issues did not affect provision
of warning services during the outbreak.' ''
NWS Director Uccellini also sent a congratulatory e-mail to
employees after the tornado outbreak. In this message, Dr. Uccellini
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
noted that:
This event was another example of the important role that
social media is playing in getting the message out. According
to the social media tracking firm Measured Voice, 47 of the top
50 tweets sent by Federal Government Twitter accounts on Sunday
were warnings from NWS on severe weather. Your embrace of
social media is a growing success story.
However, NWS field employees haven't just ``embraced'' the use of
social media to broadcast warnings--they pioneered it.
Employees at the Chicago Forecast Offices and at other local
forecast offices started creating weather-related Facebook pages for
their offices on their own several years ago, but NWS headquarters made
them take the pages down for about a year before realizing their
potential. Now all of the Nation's 122 Forecast Offices and 13 River
Forecast Centers have operational Facebook pages through which they
communicate with the public. Similarly, only after employees in the
field started ``tweeting'' weather warnings did the NWS formally
embrace and sanction Twitter accounts.
Another employee initiative involving social media has transformed
the way the NWS communicates with emergency management officials and
the media. Beginning around 2000, several Forecast Offices began using
instant messaging to communicate with emergency managers. In 2004,
employees at the Des Moines Forecast Office, working with Iowa State
University's Environmental Mesonet, began using commercial instant
messaging and chat room software to communicate with Iowa television
stations. By 2005, seven forecast offices and 21 media outlets adopted
use of this software. By 2009, the NWS assumed full control of this
service, and it is now known as NWSChat. Forecasters now use NWSChat to
exchange information with emergency managers and the media in real-time
during severe weather events. By the summer of 2012, 3,500 members of
the emergency management community had registered for an NWSChat
account, as well as over 2,000 members of the media.
In 2011, the NWS implemented six pilot projects that were an NWSEO
initiative, originally proposed to the Deputy Under Secretary at a
meeting with the NWSEO National Council in San Francisco the year
before. The plans for individual projects were then developed by a
joint labor-management committee based on proposals solicited from the
field. These pilot projects are now underway at NWS headquarters, at
the Southern Region headquarters, and at Forecast Offices in Tampa, New
Orleans, Sterling, Virginia and Charleston, West Virginia. The pilots
are developing and testing new service delivery models, such as
integrating environmental data from other NOAA agencies into NWS
products; providing enhanced, face-to-face decision support to state
and local emergency management personnel; and developing new mesoscale
forecasting models and techniques that may enable the NWS to provide
pinpoint, highly localized warnings of severe weather outbreaks hours
in advance. As part of these pilot projects, the NWS created new
positions called ``Emergency Response Meteorologists'' that assist
local emergency managers by providing ``impact-based decision support
services.'' In other words, NWS employees will not just predict the
weather and provide raw weather information, but they will assist the
emergency management community in understanding how to use this
information and what impact the predicted weather is likely to have on
their communities in practical terms.
Hurricane Isaac provided the first real-time test of the value of
the new positions. Before and during the storm, these new ``ER-Mets''
were deployed from the new Southern Regional Operations Center and the
Tampa and New Orleans Forecast Offices to 16 different FEMA, state and
local Emergency Operations Centers, as well as to the Multi-agency
Communications Center at the 2012 Republican National Convention, to
supply face-to-face decision support service. An official from the
Secret Service Intelligence Division wrote to the NWS that:
I found it very helpful to have someone on hand from the NWS to
provide up to date information regarding the hurricane . . . It
was invaluable to have you on the scene, when we all received a
tornado warning on our Blackberries. You were able to say that
we were in fact not in any danger because that particular storm
was to the north of us.
These pilot projects build on the success of an aviation weather
pilot project recently tested at New York, Chicago and Atlanta. By
adding three additional forecasters at each location (one per shift)
who were dedicated to providing additional weather support to the FAA,
weather-related air traffic delays were reduced by 50 percent
immediately.
NWSEO agreed to alter traditional staffing models in order to
conduct these pilot projects. But if these pilots are successful, the
NWS will require more, not fewer, forecasters to provide these enhanced
services nationwide. But unfortunately, over the past several years,
even before sequestration, the NWS has been shedding staff.
The National Academy of Public Administration reported earlier this
year that ``[w]hile staffing levels have been relatively constant over
the past decade, in the last three years, the NWS has realized
personnel losses at a greater rate than it has been hiring.'' National
Academy of Public Administration, Forecast for the Future: Assuring the
Capacity of the National Weather Service., 39 (2013). The Senate
Appropriations Committee noted earlier this year that ``[s]ince 2010,
NWS has seen a reduction of 290 positions, or approximately 6 percent
of its workforce, with many forecaster and other positions left vacant
across the country.'' S.Rep. No. 113-78, 113 Cong. 1st Sess. 38 (2013).
According to NAPA, the vacancy rate reached 8 percent by the second
quarter of 2013, and warned that ``[i]f this trend continues, the NWS
is in danger of losing a significant segment of the workforce and will
not be able to renew itself at sustainable levels unless it revises
staff functions and allocations across programs and offices.'' Forecast
for the Future, at 38, 39. This problem was exacerbated when the NWS
imposed a freeze on hiring on March 27, 2013. Between July 2008 and
August 2013, the NWS eliminated 331 non-managerial employees--almost
all of who are classified as ``emergency/essential.''
Even with a full complement, Forecast Offices are only staffed for
``fair weather.'' The 122 Forecast Offices operate 24/7, and most of
the time have just two forecasters on duty These two forecasters are
responsible for issuing forecasts and severe weather warnings for an
average of nearly three million people. For example, the two
forecasters at the Forecast Office in Sterling, Virginia near Dulles
Airport are responsible for the welfare of more than nine million
people who live in DC, Maryland, Delaware and Northern Virginia. The
two forecasters on duty at the Miami Forecast Office have the
responsibility to protect nearly six million people, and the two
forecasters on duty at the Tampa Forecast Office are responsible for
protecting more than five million people in central Florida.
Thus, there is usually only the minimal number of staff on duty to
be alert for severe weather and to call in the rest of the staff when
it occurs. According to the National Academy of Sciences, the ability
of the NWS to protect the public from the hazards of severe weather is
highly dependent on the availability of this additional staff:
The quality of the NWS's warning capability corresponds with
its capacity to muster an ample, fully trained local staff at
its WFOs [Weather Forecast Offices] as severe weather unfolds.
With current staff levels, there are always two people working
each shift, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Though this
works well in fair weather, it can become problematic in severe
weather, particularly when events develop rapidly under
seemingly benign conditions. While managers at individual WFOs
generally plan ahead to add sufficient staff to cover
forecasted dangerous weather situations, more innocuous weather
scenarios that suddenly and unexpectedly ``blow up'' often lead
to shortcomings that are directly attributed to having
insufficient manpower. Several recent Service Assessments
(e.g., NWS, 2003, 2009, 2010) illustrate the critical role that
adequately enhanced staffing (or lack thereof) plays in the
success (or weakness) of NWS performance during major events.
Appropriate levels of staffing, beyond normal fair weather
staffing, during major weather events, are critical for
fulfilling the NWS's ``protection of life'' mission.
National Research Council of the National Academies, The National
Weather Service Modernization and Associated Restructuring: A
Retrospective Assessment, 60-61 (2012)
The Service Assessments to which the NRC refers are conducted by
the NWS after major storm events where there are multiple fatalities or
a major economic impact, in order to evaluate its performance.
Assessment teams, composed of experts from within and outside the NWS,
generate a report that serves as an evaluative tool to identify and
share best practices in operations and procedures, and to identify and
address service deficiencies. Service assessments conducted following
eight major storms that occurred between 2008 and 2011 found that the
ability of the NWS to protect lives during these major events was
compromised due to inadequate staffing at Forecast Offices or River
Forecast Centers.\2\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\2\ Central U.S. Flooding of June 2008; Southeast U.S. Floods,
September 18-23, 2009; Record Floods of Greater Nashville: Including
Flooding in Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky, May 1-4, 2010;
Historic Tornadoes of April 2011; Missouri/Souris River Floods of May-
August 2011; Middle and Lower Mississippi River Valley Floods of Spring
2011; Remnant of Tropical Storm Lee and the Susquehanna River Basin
Flooding of September 6-1-, 2011; Hurricane/Post Tropical Storm Sandy,
October 22-29, 2012. These reports can be found at: http://
www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/index.shtml.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In May 2013, the NWS issued the Service Assessment on its
performance last October during Hurricane/Post-Tropical Storm Sandy.
The agency concluded that its performance during this event was
hampered by vacancies in critical positions. Eight vacancies at the
NWS's Eastern Region Headquarters ``limited the ability of the Acting
ERH Director to help offices provide DSS [Decision Support Services]
and to staff the Regional Operations Center.'' This assessment revealed
that the Upton, NY, Forecast Office (which services New York City and
Northern New Jersey) could not provide numerous forecast products, such
as tropical storm wind speeds at skyscraper heights, because the
Information Technology Officer position was (and still is) vacant. The
assessment also noted that there was a ``severe staffing shortage'' in
the branch of the National Hurricane Center that maintains the computer
systems, communication support, and software development for the
Center. The Assessment made the following recommendation:
NWS should identify and fill critical positions at operational
facilities. If these positions cannot be filled, NWS should
ensure awareness at higher levels in NOAA that these vacancies
may result in reduced levels of service, including constraints
and potential failure on the delivery of products and services
during the next significant weather event.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Service Assessment: Hurricane/Post-
Tropical Cyclone Sandy, October 22-29, 2012, 43-44 (May 2013)
Although the agency has focused much attention on the development
of more sophisticated global weather modeling and the acquisition of
supercomputers to run them, investment in the refinement of global
models will soon face diminishing returns. Refinement of ``mesoscale''
models, which predict smaller weather phenomena (such as particular
storms), has both the greater potential for improvement and the greater
societal pay-off. Improved mesocale models, covering smaller geographic
areas, run and interpreted by forecasters and staff at the weather
forecast offices, could provide more precise (in both temporal and
geographic terms) forecasts of storms as well as more benign weather
phenomena. Local forecasts will be more precise and certain--that is to
say, more deterministic--rather than being coached in probabilities. It
is well and good to know there is a 40 percent chance of rain and for
day 5 or 6 of the forecast that is great information. However, if you
are pouring concrete in your back yard or landing a plane at Dulles
airport tomorrow afternoon you will want to know what time it will
rain, how hard it will rain and whether there will be strong winds and
lightning. To accomplish this, the NWS will not only need new mesoscale
models, but also technicians stationed at local forecast offices who
know how and where to site the observational equipment needed to obtain
mesoscale model input, and forecasters who know the local and regional
micro-climates to interpret and modify model output and communicate
that to local authorities.
Congress directed an outside study on the management of the NWS as
part of the 2012 Commerce Department Appropriations Act. The study was
conducted by the National Academy of Public Administration. Its final
report released in May contained many recommendations concerning the
agency's human capital assets. Unfortunately, the NWS has failed to yet
act upon many of NAPA's findings and recommendations.
For example, NAPA found that the NWS has cut the amount it spends
on training by more than half since 2000, and that it now spends less
than 1 percent of its budget on training. Almost all training that
involves travel, such as on-site training at the National Weather
Service Training Center in Kansas City, has since been terminated.
Advanced Warning Operations Courses for FY 14 conducted by the Warning
Decisions Training Branch in Norman, Oklahoma have been defunded. These
courses address science, technology, and human factors (situation
awareness, decision making, team communications, and much more). The
Advanced Warning Operations Course for winter weather has not been
funded for three years. Follow-on training for the new dual
polarization radar upgrade has also been defunded. NWS ``Incident
Meteorologists'' who are dispatched to assist wildland firefighting
crews are no longer sent to safety training at the National Interagency
Fire Center in Boise, Idaho.
One of the major training programs for NWS forecasters is the COMET
program run by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. The
National Weather Service has reduced funding for the COMET Program by
over $2.5M annually since FY 2010.
NAPA recommended that the NWS reexamine its entire training
strategy if it hopes to successfully establish a ``Weather-Ready
Nation.'' Without increased investments in training for the National
Weather Service in the very near future, the new systems resulting from
the Sandy Supplemental Appropriations and the ongoing advancements in
satellites, probability prediction and new decision support tools will
be limited in providing improvements in national forecast and warning
capabilities. These limitations will stem from a forecast staff that
lacks advanced knowledge in the optimum application of the advanced
technologies.
NAPA also found that a review of the NWS's current staffing model
is warranted, but that ``it is important to include the National
Weather Service Employees Organization in this analysis process.''
Forecast for the Future at 42. We understand from unofficial sources
that this review is well underway at NWS headquarters, but we regret to
report that NWSEO has been shut out of this process. This poses a
significant risk to the success of whatever plans the agency might
develop, and it is not the first time that the NWS has developed plans
to change field staffing and operations without the input from
employees and outside user groups that is needed for success. As NAPA
found:
In reviewing the NWS's past attempts at change, many required
the NWS to spend considerable staff time and resources on a
proposal's development only to see that proposal challenged by
an outside force. The Panel notes that many of these efforts
did not justify the need for specific change or address
mitigation of the impact of such change.
Forecast for the Future at 33
The NAPA Panel also found ``that the NWS needs to re-frame the
labor-management relationship starting at the national level.'' The
Panel noted that:
NWSEO involvement was crucial to the success of the MAR
[Modernization and Associated Restructuring during the 1990s],
and continued involvement will be crucial to future NWS
successes . . . This will be accomplished by communicating
early and often with union officials and ensuing that the union
understands they will be viewed as a partner in change.
Forecast for the Future at 48, 49
Unfortunately, communications between NWS and NWSEO have grown even
less frequent since the NAPA report was issued. Nevertheless, NWSEO and
the employees it represents stand ready and willing to assist the
agency in re-engineering the NWS for the future.
Senator Schatz. Thank you very much.
Dr. Ohanian.
STATEMENT OF LEE E. OHANIAN, PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS,
AND DIRECTOR, ETTINGER FAMILY PROGRAM IN
MACROECONOMIC RESEARCH, UCLA
Dr. Ohanian. Senator Schatz, Senator Blumenthal: Thank you
for this opportunity. I'm pleased to be here.
My testimony presents recommendations to improve the future
performance of the Weather Service, focusing on promoting
cooperative labor relations between the Weather Service and
thereby avoid some of the pitfalls that occur in some union-
organization relationships. I'll begin by summarizing the
economic impact of unions, discuss differences in trends
between public and private sector unions, and then apply this
analysis to develop recommendations.
A union is a form of a monopoly, which enables unions to
drive up the cost of labor by raising compensation above market
rates and by introducing work rules that increase union jobs,
but sometimes at the expense of reducing productivity. Research
shows that unions raise compensation by 15 percent above
competitive market rates. Research on work rules indicates that
they can reduce productivity by as much as 50 percent.
Private sector unionization has declined from around 37
percent in 1952 to about 6 percent today. Some workers find
unions less attractive today than in the past. The enormous
increase in global competition means that unions can't raise
compensation significantly above market rates, nor can they
implement efficient work rules, without risking substantial job
loss. My research finds that about half of the job loss in the
Rust Belt States that occurred after 1970 is a result of union
bargaining that did not respond proactively to the increase in
competition that occurred at that time.
Public sector unionization has not declined, because
government organizations don't face the same type of
competition as the private sector. Compensation has increased
among government workers at a much faster pace than private
sector workers. Compensation was roughly the same through 1980
for both private and public sectors, but has diverged since
then, with public sector compensation about 20 percent higher
today.
Successful labor relations in both the public and private
sectors require unions and management to work productively for
the common goals of enhancing productivity and providing a high
level of service. Southwest Airlines is a terrific example of
this principle. Most of Southwest's workers are in unions, but
Southwest has a history of highly cooperative labor relations
in which both management and labor focus on the same objectives
of efficiency and quality. This has allowed Southwest to
compete vigorously with much larger carriers and gain market
share.
Let me apply these principles to the relationship between
Weather Service and the NWSEO. In terms of compensation, BLS
data show that Federal meteorologists receive the highest
compensation, with 2012 median compensation of about $97,000
per year compared to annual private sector median compensation
of about $90,000. Let me state that these data don't
necessarily imply that compensation levels for Federal
meteorologists are above market, but they do raise this
possibility. I recommend that a compensation review process
should be updated on a regular basis, particularly since the
private weather industry is growing so rapidly, and which
provides useful benchmarks; and that this compensation review
process should take into account differences in retirement
benefits between Federal sector and private sector as well.
Another recommendation is to review how the NWSEO may
impact work rules and the organization of manpower. This is
noteworthy for two reasons. One is that rapid technological
change has significantly impacted weather forecasting and this
will likely impact the deployment of labor and the structure of
the organization in the future. The second reason is that
private weather forecasting has expanded considerably and this
will also potentially impact Weather Service organizational
changes and changes in labor deployment.
To ensure that the Weather Service responds productively to
these changes, it's central that the Weather Service and the
NWSEO cooperatively plan future organizational and manpower
changes to achieve a high level of productivity and quality.
However, some actions by the NWSEO indicate that their goals
stand in contrast to that of the Weather Service. My testimony
lists some of these, including the fact that the NWSEO defeated
plans to consolidate some forecast offices and reduce
positions.
Ideally, the NWSEO will work with the Weather Service to
constructively plan organizational and manpower changes and,
most important, standard cost-benefit analysis should be used
to assess different proposals to achieve organizational
efficiency and quality. Both labor and management come up with
terrific plans to improve quality and service.
A constructive relationship between the Weather Service and
the NWSEO that focuses on increasing productivity and quality
is the best way to ensure that Weather Service workers are paid
reasonably, have reasonable job security, and that benefits
from the resources devoted to Weather Service forecasting
justify the costs.
Thank you very much. I look forward to your questions.
[The prepared statement of Dr. Ohanian follows:]
Prepared Statement of Lee E. Ohanian, Professor of Economics, and
Director, Ettinger Family Program in Macroeconomic Research, UCLA
Chairman Rockefeller, Senator Begich, and Committee members, thank
you for the opportunity to testify today on the key importance of the
National Weather Service (hereafter NWS). My testimony primarily
consists of recommendations to improve the future efficiency and
performance of the National Weather Service, with a focus on labor
relations between the NWS and the union representing the employees of
the NWS, the National Weather Service Employees Organization (hereafter
NWSEO).
My focus on labor relations between the NWS and the NWSEO follows
from the fact that labor costs are typically the largest component of
production costs in organizations, and that there is evidence that
unions have raised costs in some government agencies and in some
private organizations. Moreover, technological change has had a large
impact on weather forecasting and analysis, and may continue to impact
the weather forecasting industry in the future. This in turn may lead
to changes in manpower requirements and/or the cost-effective
organization of the NWS. The productivity of future NWS operations will
therefore depend on an ongoing cooperative relationship between NWSEO
and the NWS as technology and the demands of the users of weather
forecasts continue to evolve over time.
I will begin by summarizing the economic impact of unions,
including distinctions between trends in private sector unionization
and public sector unionization. I will discuss how unions can raise
costs by raising compensation levels and by introducing work rules that
reduce productivity and that may also interfere with organizational
changes and the adoption of new technologies. I will then apply this
analysis to developing a set of recommendations for the NWS in order to
facilitate and foster a cooperative and productive relationship with
the NWSEO.
A union is a form of monopoly. It is a single seller of labor
services to an organization. This monopoly position provides unions
with the opportunity to drive up the cost of labor by raising the
compensation for union members above the compensation that would
prevail in a competitive marketplace and by defining work rules for its
members that protect jobs, which in turn increase the number of workers
and thereby reduces labor productivity. In terms of their impact on
costs and productivity, there has been considerable research on the
effects of collective bargaining on wages, and consensus estimates are
that unions raise wages by about 10 to 15 percent above the rate that
would prevail in their absence (see Card (1996)). In terms of patterns
over time, research by Blanchflower and Bryson (2002) indicate that
union wage premia have declined in the private sector over time, but
not in the public sector. There is comparatively less research on the
impact of work rules on economic activity, but the cost of work rules
may be much larger than the cost of higher wages. Several detailed
studies indicate that union work rules, particularly in industries that
face little competition, can substantially reduce efficiency and output
by as much as 50 percent. In some instances, work rules impede the
adoption of new technologies by requiring a minimum number of workers
in production and/or by restricting how a particular job is done (see
Holmes and Schmitz (2010) for a summary, and Schmitz (2005) for a
detailed study). In summary, adopting inefficient work rules and
raising compensation above levels that would prevail in a competitive
marketplace harms consumers and/or taxpayers by raising costs and
impeding the efficient allocation of society's scarce resources. My
analysis with Harold Cole of the Great Depression (Cole and Ohanian,
2004) indicates that the large reduction in competition that occurred
during the 1930s, including the rapid rise in unionization, prolonged
the Depression for a number of years.
Union membership grew substantially following the National Labor
Relations Act of 1935, and continued to expand through the early 1950s,
as unions provided its members with important benefits at that time.
This reflected the fact that there was much less competition in the
economy for workers, which meant that some workers may not have
received compensation commensurate with their productivity. Moreover,
unions were considered to be important for protecting worker safety and
health at that time. But both labor market conditions and worker health
and safety conditions have changed considerably over time. Today, there
is considerable competition for workers, which means that compensation
is commensurate with worker productivity, and health and safety are
covered by national, state, and local laws.
These changes have made unions less attractive to workers than in
the past, and this has resulted in a large decline in private sector
unionization. Figure 1 shows the share of unionized employment from
1929 to the present. Union representation in the private sector began
declining in the 1960s and this decline accelerated in the 1970s.
Private sector unionization rates have declined from about 37 percent
in 1952 to only about 6 percent today. Declining private sector
unionization reflects a number of factors, including the facts that the
economy is much more competitive than it was 60 years ago, that health
and safety are protected through legislation, and that many of today's
workers prefer to negotiate their own opportunities rather than
relinquish their individual bargaining rights to collective bargaining.
It is also important to recognize that declining unionization is not
simply the result of the country's declining industrial base, as is
often suggested (see for example Bluestone, 1990). In particular,
declining unionization characterizes most of the private sector
economy, including industry. As Hirsch (2008) shows, unionization rates
in manufacturing and construction, two of the most heavily unionized
sectors, fell from about 40 percent in the early 1970s to less than 15
percent in 2006.
Increased competition is considered by many economists to be a
major factor in understanding lower private sector unionization.
Competition for workers drives wages up to the level of worker
productivity, which means that worker compensation is commensurate with
the value of their production. And competition in product markets
drives output prices down to the level that is consistent with the
market return on capital. This means that in today's globally
competitive world economy, union attempts to raise compensation or
implement inefficient work rules would result in organizations becoming
uncompetitive, which in turn would lead to substantial job loss. This
is an important reason why unions have become a much smaller force in
the private sector workplace and why there is relatively little new
unionization among private industry. My research shows that increasing
competition is a key factor in understanding why the most heavily
unionized sectors of our economy, such as the auto, steel, and rubber
industries, have declined so much since the 1970s. (Alder, Lagakos,
Ohanian, 2013).
Today's increasingly competitive global and domestic economy
indicates that there are important limitations on what unions can
plausibly achieve for their members compared to what they were able to
achieve in the past. Thus, workers have little to gain from union
representation when unions cannot deliver better pay and working
conditions than what workers can achieve on their own.
There are important lessons from the decline of private sector
unionization rates and the decline of industries that were represented
by traditional unions. Specifically, the historical characteristics of
labor relations in which unions and management were at odds, and unions
raised costs through compensation above market rates and through
inefficient work rules, must change for both workers and other
organization stakeholders to succeed. Successful labor relations today
require unions and management to work productively for the common goal
of enhancing productivity and providing a high level of service and
value to the users of its products and services. An example of this is
Southwest Airlines. Nearly 90 percent of Southwest's workers are in
unions. Several of these unions, including Southwest's pilot union, are
independent organizations, in contrast to the unions that represent
pilots at other airlines. Southwest has a history of highly cooperative
labor relations in which both management and labor focus on the same
objectives of efficiency, customer satisfaction, and competing
vigorously with other carriers. While many other air carriers have had
a history of conflicted labor relations, Southwest's cooperative labor
relations have been a key factor in its success, and they have allowed
Southwest to compete vigorously with much larger carriers and gain
market share.
I now turn to public sector unionization. Unionization trends among
public sector workers are very different than the private sector trends
discussed above. Figure 1 also shows unionization rates for federal,
state, and local government workers since the early 1980s. The
unionization rates of these public sector workers have been stable over
time, at around 43 percent for local government workers, about 33
percent for state workers, and about 17 percent for Federal workers.
These very different trends reflect large differences in the impact
of competition private versus public sector employees. As noted above,
the very large decline in unionization in the private sector has been
significantly impacted by increased competition, which has reduced the
ability of unions to raise wages or change work rules. But much less
competition exists in the public sector, and this means that unions
have more opportunities to raise compensation above competitive levels
and protect jobs, which makes union membership more attractive. In the
private sector, significantly higher labor costs would result in large
employment losses as firms that attempt to pass on these higher costs
would lose market share to competitors. But in the public sector, this
type of competition often does not exist, so higher costs of above-
market compensation or inefficient work rules can be passed on to
taxpayers.
My research (Ohanian, 2010) indicates that public sector unions
have been able to thrive because of limited competition. This also
suggests that unions have increased compensation at a faster rate than
the competitive levels noted above. In particular, compensation at all
levels of government has increased by about 40 percent since 1980,
compared to about a 20 percent increase in the private sector. The
average public sector compensation level is now $70,000, compared to an
average of $60,000 in the private sector. Moreover, job security in the
public sector has traditionally been higher in the public sector, and
public sector pensions are often superior to private sector pensions.
Higher job security, and more attractive pensions, which is a form of
deferred compensation, suggests that government workers may be willing
to work at their current positions for less than private sector pay. My
findings indicate that accounting for just the higher rate of public
sector job security suggests that public sector employment could be
competitive even with compensation that are about 10 percent lower than
the private sector. The fact that average public sector worker
compensation is higher than in the private sector, without taking into
account pension benefits, suggests that public sector compensation
levels may be above competitive levels.
There may be considerable savings from federal, state and local
government reforms that systematically develop competitive compensation
analyses and that also review work rule practices. Specifically,
government organizations should review how they benchmark compensation,
including pensions, to private sector comparison. Ideally, this would
also include some allowance for the likelihood that public sector
employment offers greater job security than private sector employment.
This discussion about unions also has implications for public
sector union performance. These unions understandably operate in the
interest of their members who pay their unions to represent them to
gain the highest compensation and job security. But public sector
unions must understand that taxpayers are becoming increasingly
unwilling to pay for public sector services in which compensation is
above market and in which there are inefficient work rules. As in the
private sector, successful public sector labor relations will be ones
in which unions and management broadly agree on goals of enhancing
efficiency, productivity and customer service and perceived value to
insure that their workers are reasonably and fairly compensated and
that they have reasonable job security.
This discussion also has implications for assessing the future
relations between the NWSEO and the NWS. One issue is regarding
compensation. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that
among meteorologists, public sector meteorologists receive the highest
wages and salaries. In 2012, Federal Government-employed meteorologists
received about $97,000 per year, compared to a median salary of about
$86,000 for private sector meteorologists. While these data do not
necessarily imply that compensation levels are above market for Federal
Government meteorologists, these data do raise this issue as a
possibility. I recommend that a review process for compensation should
be updated on a regular basis, particularly since the private weather
industry is growing so quickly, and this compensation review process
should ideally take into account differences in pension/retirement
benefits between government and the private sector.
Another recommendation regarding labor relations, and promoting the
goal of high productivity, is reviewing how NWSEO may impact work rules
and the organization of manpower. It is particularly important for the
NWS and the NWSEO to follow current successful labor relations
practices and to try to achieve a common set of goals that enhance
productivity and customer satisfaction. This is noteworthy for two
reasons. One is that rapid technological change has significantly
impacted weather forecasting. As in other industries that adopt and
adapt new technologies, the organization of the industry, including the
deployment of labor and the location of production, will change.
Another reason is that private weather forecasting has expanded
considerably in recent years, and debates regarding what forecasting
services are to be provided by the NWS and other government agencies,
and what services are to be provided by private organizations, will
likely continue. While it is difficult to predict how the provision of
weather forecasting services will evolve between public and private
providers, it is possible that some services should be shifted from the
NWS to the private sector, and this will also lead to organization
changes and changes in manpower deployment and utilization.
The NWSEO will play a role in both of these processes. In the past,
the NWS has negotiated with the NWSEO when an organizational change
will impact working conditions, unless the union has been involved
prior to the decision. Ideally, the NWSEO and the NWS will share common
goals of enhancing productivity and customer value, and the NWSEO would
be involved in the planning stages of changes in the utilization of
manpower to help achieve these common goals, instead of negotiating
between the NWS and the NWSEO after the organization change.
I recommend that developing joint goals and working cooperatively
be given high priority, and that this should be reviewed on an ongoing
basis in the future. One reason to prioritize this issue is because
some of the NWSEO achievements that are listed on www.nwseo.org may be
inconsistent with the goal of achieving common objectives with the NWS.
Specifically, I list below the NWSEO's main five recent achievements,
all of which either involve raising compensation or expanding
personnel. I have copied these from www.nwseo.org.
1. Saving the CWSUs (center weather station unit to forecast to FAA)
from consolidation--a culmination of a five year lobbying
effort by NWSEO to preserve both aviation safety and NWS
employee jobs. NWSEO spent over $200,000 in this lobbying
effort and obtained the support of the Senate Commerce
Committee, the House Science Committee and the House and Senate
Commerce, Justice and Science Appropriations Subcommittees.
2. Securing back pay for overtime for nearly 200 NWS employees.
Securing FLSA (fair labor standards act) Non-Exempt status of
an additional 165 NWS employees. The NWS has agreed to pay two
years' lost overtime wages and liquidated damages for those
employees, as well.
3. Winning an appeal to bargain to increase staffing at Anchorage
WFO (national weather forecast service office) by 10
positions--this directs the National Weather Service to bargain
with NWSEO over a proposal that would increase staffing at the
Anchorage WFO by ten positions.
4. Securing special projects designed to increase aviation safety,
which include increased NWS personnel at the CWSU and WFOs in
New York City, Atlanta, and Chicago.
5. NWSEO secured an agreement that upgrades to a GS-8 every
Administrative Support Assistant at field offices around the
country. The GS-8 upgrade includes approximately one million
dollars in extra pay and benefits to the lowest paid NWS
employees each and every year from now on.
Note that Items 2 and 5 suggest the possibility of raising
compensation above market levels. Items 1, 3, and 4 suggest the
possibility of expanding staffing that may not be justified on a cost-
benefit basis.
The NWSEO also has a top 20 historical achievement list that also
includes items that raise the possibility of expanding staffing and
impeding organization changes, and raising compensation above market.
These include:
1. Defeated the agency's plans to reduce staffing and consolidate
Forecast Offices (CONOPS).
2. Defeated the agency's plan to eliminate nearly 400 HMTs and
instead negotiated for the creation of new promotional
opportunities for HMTs (the GS-12 OPL position) and true time
and one-half overtime for HMTs.
5. Won an arbitration case which requires the agency to maintain at
least two employees on duty on every forecast shift.
9. Negotiated agreements that raised target grades of interns from
GS-9 to GS-11 and that entitles interns to the first
opportunity to apply for forecaster vacancies before outside
candidates.
10. Won an arbitration case which requires the agency to make
temporary promotions when forecasters cover vacant positions
for 20 days or more.
Some of these items prevented organizational changes involving the
deployment of manpower or the organization of the NWS that would
presumably have enhanced efficiency of the NWS. Some other items raised
compensation possibly above market levels.
These actions do indicate contrasting objectives between the NWSEO
and the NWS. The NWSEO's mission has been to represent its members by
obtaining high compensation and job security. However, these NWSEO
objectives may possibly be raising costs and reducing efficiency. A
cooperative relationship between the NWSEO and the NWS that focuses on
increasing productivity and customer value will be central for the
future success of both parties.
References
Alder, Simeon, David Lagakos, and Lee E. Ohanian, (2013) ``The Rust
Belt: A Macroeconomic Analysis''
Blanchflower, D. G., and Bryson, A. 2002, ``Changes over Time in
Union Relative Wage Effects in the UK and the U.S. Revisited'', NBER
Working Paper No. 9395
Bluestone, Barry, 1990. ``The Impact of Schooling and Industrial
Restructuring on Recent Trends in Wage Inequality in the United
States,'' American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol.
80(2).
Card, David (1996) ``The Effect of Unions on the Structure of
Wages: A Longitudinal Analysis'', Econometrica, Vol. 64, No. 4
Cole, Harold and Ohanian, Lee; 2004, New Deal Policies and the
Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis,
Journal of Political Economy, 2004.
Hirsch, Barry (2008) ``Sluggish Institutions in a Dynamic World:
Can Unions and Industrial Competition Coexist?'' Journal of Economic
Perspectives, Vol. 22, Number 1
Holmes, Thomas, and James Schmitz, 2010, ``Competition and
Productivity: A Review of the Evidence'', Annual Review of Economics,
Vol. 2
Ohanian, Lee E. (2010), ``The Impact of the Employee Free Choice
Act on the U.S. Economy'', Discussion Paper, American Enterprise
Institute.
Schmitz, James, (2005), ``What Determines Productivity? Lessons
from the Dramatic Recovery of the U.S. and Canadian Iron Ore Industries
Following Their Early 1980s Crisis'' Journal of Political Economy, Vol.
113, No. 3
Senator Schatz. Thank you very much.
Senator Blumenthal.
STATEMENT OF HON. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL,
U.S. SENATOR FROM CONNECTICUT
Senator Blumenthal. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Thank you all for being here today on a subject that
Americans truly appreciate, I think, although often they don't
look beyond the immediate forecast for the day to the longer
term forecast, either for the weather forecasting capability or
the weather itself.
So let me begin. Mr. Gail, in your testimony--and I've been
reading as well as listening to it--you make reference at
various points to technology, the need to build new skills to
use the technology. Is there technology available right now
that the National Weather Service is not using, that it could
be using, that would provide more accurate and reliable
forecasts?
Dr. Gail. There has been a lot of attention to that
recently. The Sandy legislation put forth resources to help
resolve some of those issues. Many of these are things that we
as a community and the Weather Service in particular are
directly aware of. So there is progress, particularly in the
area of modeling. That's an area where we know that in some
cases we have been falling behind the Europeans in particular.
So resources have been put towards that and we are making
substantial progress.
The technology of delivering information is, as everybody
knows, undergoing rapid evolution. There was discussion earlier
of Twitter and other mechanisms for communicating information.
That's an area that really requires really focused attention to
make best use of that and to understand when it works well and
when it doesn't work well. So those are real challenges for us
as a community in general.
Senator Blumenthal. Are there sources of information--I
know in Connecticut, for example, a number of our academic
institutions help to provide information on what's actually
happening on the ground. Is that practice generally used around
the country?
Dr. Gail. There's a lot of work being done in the academic
sector on these exact issues. Some of it is technological, some
of it is sociological and communications science, to understand
not only how to get information to people in the best manner,
but how to deliver it in a form that's most useful.
Senator Blumenthal. How do we attract the kinds of people--
you make reference to them--who have skills, who can develop
these skills?
Dr. Gail. I think we're seeing a time where this field is
becoming very dynamic and we are beginning to attract people
because they see the challenges and the interest in delivering
weather information in a variety of ways, to a variety of end
users, whether they're businesses or the public. So we see this
in terms of applications being developed for mobile phones and
a large number of applications that are being developed by
people even outside what we would consider our traditional
community, people coming in and saying: This is a really
interesting thing to do.
Senator Blumenthal. Let me ask you and any of the other
folks here if they care to comment: do you think there is
sufficient attention given to climate disruption, global
warming, that area, in terms of the forecasting of weather?
Dr. Gail. Well, let me. That obviously is a very tricky and
deep question. Let me just add that I am speaking from my own
personal perspective here rather than the perspective of the
Committee. When you look at extreme events, extreme events are
interesting to us irrespective of the source of climate change.
We're seeing more and more sensitivity to extreme events. So I
think paying attention at that level to extreme events and the
climate underpinnings of extreme events is important no matter
your particular perspective on climate change.
Senator Blumenthal. Thank you.
Anyone else care to comment?
[No response.]
Senator Blumenthal. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Senator Schatz. Thank you, Senator Blumenthal.
I have a question for Mr. Young. You talked about the
fragile state of the situation with JPSS and that we were one
failure from a gap which would have severe implications. Can
you explain in sort of plain language what that means for
someone in my home state or Senator Blumenthal's home state in
terms of our ability to know what's happening, in terms of our
visibility into weather events? What does that mean as a
practical matter if we were to have a gap?
Mr. Young. If we had a gap we would have----
Senator Schatz. I think your microphone--thank you.
Mr. Young. If we had a gap, there would be no afternoon
polar-orbiting data available. No polar-orbiting data available
means no long-range forecasts. So it fundamentally means that
the ability to do a lot of the things that have been presented
in terms of not only weather, but severe event forecasting, we
won't have the ability to provide those data in a timely manner
to execute appropriate warnings.
Specifically, I think it has been referenced, but there was
data denial study done for Sandy and polar-orbiting data were
eliminated, and if polar-orbiting data were not part of the
model it would have forecast that Sandy would have gone out to
sea. So there would have been no warnings for New Jersey and
New York and the small loss of life that took place obviously
would not have been the result.
Senator Schatz. Thank you, Mr. Young. That's a perfect
example, easy for all of us laymen, lay people, to understand.
I have a question about the efficacy of utilization of
appropriated moneys. Obviously, we're very hopeful that we'll
have a budget deal and soon after start to move forward with
appropriations. I want to get the perspective of Dr. Gail and
Mr. Myers very quickly, if you don't mind, on the efficacy of,
say, a dollar spent in the communications, public education
aspect of weather preparedness versus trying to spend another
dollar on increasing accuracy, because I think that for the
appropriators is going to be one of the tough questions to
answer, is where are--if we are able to incrementally spend
more dollars, where's the best place in this appropriation
timeframe to focus?
Mr. Myers.
Mr. Myers. I'm a believer in the fact that the National
Weather Service is primarily at least a science agency, and the
quality of what they do is probably the most important thing. I
know at AccuWeather we look upon accuracy as critical. If
forecasts are not accurate, if warnings are not accurate,
people will not act, no matter what the message, no matter what
methodology you use to get the message out. An example with
Sandy. If the data's not there, if the satellites aren't there,
you won't even know that there's a danger.
So I have some fundamental points of discussion that I
constantly have with NOAA and the National Weather Service over
where the money should be spent, especially in terms of social
media activities that are going on. I understand the desire to
do that. I also understand the cost to do that and the fact
that it has to take money away from the essence of what that
agency is about, which is putting out a quality warning that
people can rely on. If you knew every warning was correct, you
would act.
Senator Schatz. Thank you.
Dr. Gail?
Dr. Gail. My personal perspective is that understanding how
people use information and how it gets communicated to them is
important. I believe the Weather Service should focus to some
extent on that. Our committee did say very clearly that the
Weather Service should focus first and foremost on those things
that only they can do, and the modeling, major modeling,
certainly falls within that category. So I would agree with Mr.
Myers that a focus on core capabilities is primary.
Communication is something that we all share across the
enterprise. We all try to do that well.
Senator Schatz. Thank you very much.
I have a question for Mr. Hirn. It's actually a repeat of
my first question for Dr. Uccellini, regarding the use of
social media. You talked about it a little bit and I'm
wondering what the perspective is of how social media is
evolving in the work place and how you think it's going to help
people to be prepared?
Mr. Hirn. Well, I would note that you're going to need--
when you have a fully staffed office, this is something that
can be done. There is--once you fully staff the Weather
Service--and it's not fully staffed now to what it ideally
should be or to what's necessary to consistently and reliably
issue the forecasts and warnings. But the social media is not
much of an additional, incremental cost. That's something that
the employees have taken on on their own as an employee
initiative in the forecast offices, that they have embraced
doing.
I think it's important to keep doing that. We want to make
sure that--there's a lot of social media out there, some
reliable, some not. We want to make sure that the information
that's being conveyed on the social media is coming from the
reliable source. The Weather Service is the official source for
public warnings of severe weather. If the Weather Service is
not doing that and somebody unreliable is doing that or things
get tweeted and re-tweeted and people start guessing what it's
going to be, the public's going to get confused.
So I think it really is important to have the Weather
Service be engaged there and have the social media outlet, and
if you fully staff the offices I'm not sure where the
additional cost comes in.
Senator Schatz. Thank you, Mr. Hirn. I just want to say I
agree that it's very unlikely to cause incremental additional
costs unless you start hiring specific positions called social
media manager, digital outreach, communications coordinator.
But to the degree and extent that your NWSEO employees,
National Weather Service professionals, have information, most
of them are on the Internet, which means that they're going to
be engaged in social media whether we like it or not. So the
question is how do we just make sure that they do so
responsibly and in a somewhat organized fashion to the extent
that it's possible.
I really want to thank all the testifiers for being so
engaged in this critically important issue. The Commerce
Committee and Senator Begich's subcommittee are very interested
in this issue. As you can see from our membership when the
hearing started, we are all passionate about weather. It is
something that impacts all of our communities, both on a day to
day quality of life basis, but also economically. So I
appreciate your engagement and look forward to working with
you.
Thank you.
[Whereupon, at 12:11 p.m., the hearing was adjourned.]
A P P E N D I X
GeoOptics, Inc.
December 12, 2013
Hon. Mark Begich,
U.S. Senate,
Washington, DC.
Dear Senator Begich:
RE: Please Support--H.R. 2413--the Weather Forecasting Improvement Act
of 2013
I am a 40 year Navy veteran (Vice Admiral. USN ret), then served as
the Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) from 2001-2007, and am currently CEO and Director
of a satellite-based weather data company, GeoOptics. The Committee on
Commerce, Science, and Transportation's Subcommittee on Oceans,
Atmosphere, Fisheries, and Coast Guard will soon be considering H.R.
2413 that emanates from a critical need to improve weather forecasting
in the United States in response to severe weather events such as
tornados and hurricanes, and other costly weather impacted events.
As a former Administrator of NOAA, I strongly support a renewed
emphasis on ensuring the necessary management policies and resources
are directed toward improving our ability to forecast and warn in
advance of severe weather events of all types from heat waves, floods,
forest fires to hurricanes and tornados. The U.S. economy, national
security, and daily business demand in a competitive world that the
U.S. be the leader in these critical areas. We need to support a
renewed emphasis on a balance of research, observations, data
gathering, modeling, high performance computing and communications to
protect our economy and our people.
As the CEO of a satellite-based weather data company, I strongly
support the provisions to require a commercial data buy component that
will exert market influences to lower the current costs and development
times resulting from the long practice of exclusive use of government
developed, owned, and operated weather satellite systems. From my
experiences as a DOD cost analyst, manager of the U.S. Navy program and
budget, and NOAA executive, I am a strong advocate of competition to
lower costs and improve value. After living with and studying the
current weather satellite ``business'' model in government and the
private sector, I am convinced that the gradual addition of a
commercial data buy component can achieve what to date has been
elusive--firm management control over weather satellite costs,
schedules, and performance.
Firm legislative direction to ensure an immediate place for
commercial data buys of operational weather data will provide the
opportunity to transition the current system to a more rational and
logical path both for developing satellite technology and ensuring
operational weather data continuity without the current ``theater''
that accompanies every new generation of weather satellites.
With your support and consideration for H.R. 2413, this legislation
can help NOAA save more lives; spur commercial investment in new
technologies; and, bolster our economy by creating jobs and enhance our
citizens' quality of life affected by severe weather.
Thank you for your consideration.
Sincerely yours,
Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr.
VADM USN ret,
CEO & Director,
GeoOptics, Inc.
______
Response to Written Questions Submitted by Hon. Marco Rubio to
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
Question 1. Provided that the data are subjected to the same
standards of quality, reliability, and timeliness, do you have a
preference whether satellite data come from government satellites
versus commercial satellites?
Answer. As operational users, the National Weather Service (NWS)
utilizes data from both government agencies as well as commercial
vendors. The data must meet required quality, reliability, and
timeliness standards.
Question 2. I understand from your testimony that you used a new
hurricane prediction model for the 2013 season. The 2013 Atlantic
Hurricane Season was predicted to be an above average season with 13 to
20 named storms and three to six major hurricanes. Yet, it ended as the
sixth least active hurricane season since 1950. Can you explain this
anomaly? What are you doing specifically to improve hurricane
forecasting?
Answer. The hurricane seasonal outlook you mention is a seasonal
prediction effort, and includes many large atmospheric and oceanic
variables, such as Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, Atlantic
Ocean temperatures, and an overall prediction of the high level
steering winds over the tropics. This information is used by our
seasonal forecasters to predict the atmospheric characteristics that
foster hurricane development in general, not individual hurricanes. Our
forecasters did not anticipate the high level wind shear to persist
over the Atlantic Ocean throughout the entire hurricane season, and
this feature contributed to the reduced number of hurricanes in the
Atlantic basin. While progress has been made in seasonal hurricane
prediction over the past few years, additional research is necessary to
improve the skill of these outlooks.
NOAA's Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) is focused on
the short term prediction of individual storms. The goal of HFIP is to
improve hurricane track and intensity forecasts by 50 percent. The new
HFIP-supported hurricane forecast model we are using predicts the track
and intensity of the hurricanes and has shown significant improvement
over previous models. Since the program began four years ago, we have
achieved a 20 to 25 percent improvement in track prediction and 10 to
20 percent improvement in intensity prediction and expect to see
continued strong improvement for FY 2014. While funding for the program
is reduced in FY 2015, we still expect to make continued, albeit
smaller, progress in track and intensity predictions.
Question 3. How have the labor relations at NWS impeded your
efforts to make the agency work more efficiently?
Answer. Executive Order 13522: ``Creating Labor-Management Forums
to Improve Delivery of Government Services,'' issued in 2009, envisions
a non-adversarial relationship between labor and management to reach
consensus on common issues. E.O. 13522 prescribes using pre-decisional
involvement and a non-adversarial forum that allows managers and
employees to collaborate in delivering high-quality services to the
public. As reported to the National Council on Federal Labor-Management
Relations in May 2011, the Department of Commerce and the National
Weather Service Employees Union (NWSEO) had success working together to
improve efficiency, by saving money on travel expenses. However, the
NWS and the NWSEO are still working together to realize the full
benefits of pre-decisional involvement and interest-based bargaining.
Historically, the relationship between NWS management and the NWSEO
is strained. When unresolved, particularly contentious issues may come
before a third party, such as an arbitrator or the Federal Labor
Relations Authority, when there are allegations that the NWS has failed
to meet its bargaining obligations under 5 U.S.C. chapter 71 and the
NWS/NWSEO Collective Bargaining Agreement.
But, since I have been the director of the NWS (February 2013), our
leadership team has taken steps to improve our relationship and involve
the NWSEO in all of our planning meetings and initial efforts. We are
implementing the recommendations of the National Academy of Public
Administration (NAPA) report, ``Forecast for the Future: Assuring the
Capacity of the National Weather Service,'' to develop a process for
change that is deliberate, involves NWSEO up front, and will ensure any
proposed changes in our organization are successful and result in no
degradation of services this Nation relies upon on a daily basis. Our
plan is to involve NWSEO at every stage to evolve the agency following
the direction outlined in the FY 2014 CJS report language.
Question 4. In what areas has the Federal Labor Relations Authority
required negotiations with the National Weather Service Employee
Organization and, therefore, hampered the agency's ability to perform
work effectively?
Answer. The agency's obligation to negotiate with the NWSEO is
found in 5 U.S.C. chapter 71, which the FLRA is responsible for
administering. The Federal Labor Relations Authority (FLRA) may require
negotiations if it determines that the NWS has violated 5 U.S.C.
Sec. 7116(a)(5) by refusing to negotiate in good faith, as required by
law or contract. The FLRA may also require the parties to negotiate
upon request over specific proposed language where the FLRA determines
in a negotiability proceeding under 5 CFR Part 2424 that the agency has
a duty to bargain over that language. The FLRA typically does not
hamper our ability to perform work effectively other than it may
occasionally take a long time to reach a decision resolving a dispute
involving an issue regarding negotiations. In this connection, delays
may occur when the Authority component of the FLRA does not have a
quorum and is unable to issues decisions. In regards to negotiating
with NWSEO in general, the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA)
between the NWS and NWSEO, became effective on October 25, 2001. Since
that time several MOUs and associated addenda have been added to the
CBA. The CBA was initially valid and in force for a period of three
years from its effective date, and it is renewed automatically from
year to year unless either party provides written notice of a desire to
change. While the effectiveness of a negotiated agreement is not
dependent on the age of an agreement, the ability to effect change
could be based on the balance of management and employee rights within
the cumulative agreement and its associated addenda. The NAPA study,
``Forecast for the Future: Assuring the Capacity of the National
Weather Service,'' recommended the NWS and NWSEO collaborate to reframe
the relationship. Although renegotiating the October 2001 CBA may help
to reframe the labor-management relationship, other key elements
suggested in the NAPA study include reinvigorating the labor-management
forum and involving NWSEO in pre-decisional discussions.
Question 5. As we will hear from Dr. Gail, the Independent Review
Team has recommended that the NWS evaluate its function and structure,
seeking areas for improvement. What specific actions are you taking
with the NWS workforce to implement this recommendation?
Answer. (1) As part of the FY 2015 President's Budget, we requested
authorization to restructure our budget lines or Programs, Projects, or
Activities (PPAs) to align with our functions in the NWS--(Facilities;
Observations; Central Processing; Dissemination; Science and Technology
Integration; and Analyze, Forecast and Support). In parallel, NWS is
exploring options to reorganize its headquarters to align with the new
budget structure. Furthermore, we are developing a Budget Governance
document for the NWS leadership to follow in preparing the budget and
execution according to the Congressional appropriations. Once complete,
our budget process will be transparent and far more effective towards
executing our mission.
(2) We are developing a services baseline in our field offices to
ensure any changes will not lead to degradation of service. Moreover,
we have plans to conduct an agency-wide staffing analysis to ensure
resources are applied strategically and optimally to meet our mission.
(3) We are also developing a process for change to plan, execute,
and assess any significant changes to NWS services or operations. It is
an open process and actively solicits input from our users--ranging
from the emergency management community to Federal partners, and
Congress, and includes university users, the private sector, and our
employees.
______
Response to Written Question Submitted by Hon. Dan Coats to
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
Question. The IRT report used some fairly strong words with regards
to the state of NOAA's weather satellite program and the unacceptable
gap in coverage we face. However, it did suggest we could help right
those problems with investment in low cost small satellites without
some of the costly sensors on our current polar systems. Would the NWS
benefit from the data that could be provided by the sounders flown on
the gap filler mission suggested by the IRT?
Answer. NOAA is taking steps to reduce the likelihood of a gap in
coverage in the afternoon polar orbit. A gap-filler mission could
further reduce the probability that a gap were to occur between planned
JPSS missions; however, a gap filler mission is not the only way to
ensure robustness. NOAA is examining all options, including a gap
filler, and plans to make a recommendation with the FY16 President's
Budget. NOAA has developed a contingency plan to help mitigate a gap if
it were to occur and is taking steps to reduce the risk of a gap
occurring. There are several projects that were funded through the 2013
Disaster Relief Appropriations Act (Sandy Supplemental) that will bring
in additional non-satellite observations, enhance data assimilation
techniques, and improve national numerical weather prediction
capabilities.
______
Response to Written Question Submitted by Hon. Marco Rubio to
William B. Gail
Question. Do you agree that some of the listed ``achievements'' by
the National Weather Service Employees Organization directly
contradicts your specific recommendations for the NWS to evaluate its
function and structure in a way that would make the agency and its
operations more efficient?
Answer. I do not agree that the listed ``achievements'' by the
National Weather Service Employees Organization (NWSEO) directly
contradicts the specific recommendations of the NRC ``Second to None''
report for the NWS to evaluate its function and structure in a way that
would make the agency and its operations more efficient. The
``achievements'' describe how individual initiative has proved valuable
to the NWS mission. In several of the cases presented, this initiative
was rewarded with public endorsement by NWS management.
The ``Second to None'' reported noted that NWS field offices are
staffed for fair weather, and can be spread thin when responding to
severe weather events. It recommended that a more agile workforce--with
regard to both individual skills and workforce structure--is needed for
the future. Determining the nature of this agility and implementing it
represents a challenge for NWS and NWSEO. Yet increased agility in no
way undermines the ongoing need for human staff. In contrast, such
agility can be exemplified by reliance on individual initiative to
develop improved NWS services. NWSEO's list of ``achievements'' is
consistent with the agility message of the ``Second to None'' report,
not contradictory.
______
Response to Written Question Submitted by Hon. Marco Rubio to
A. Thomas Young
Question. Did the team consider commercial options to help mitigate
gaps in polar-orbiting weather satellites? If not, why not?
Answer. The IRT did discuss and consider commercial options to help
mitigate data gaps from polar-orbiting weather satellites. And while
the IRT is supportive of the overall growth of commercial satellite
systems, the IRT believes there are very limited, if any, viable
commercial options to address the data gap in the 2017 era.
First, analysis by the National Weather Service (NWS) has shown
that the two atmospheric observation instruments that have the largest
impact on weather prediction error, are the microwave sounder and the
infrared interferometer, respectively. These are the key sensors that
are needed for the gap. The IRT is not aware of any commercial vendor
that can produce either of the sensors, especially in time to address a
gap in 2017. [Of the handful of current commercial vendors that plan to
provide atmospheric observation data, two are planning on providing GPS
Radio Occultation data, and the other is providing hyperspectral
sounder data collected from geosynchronous orbit.]
Second, additional analysis by NWS has shown that the atmospheric
observations must be of high quality with low noise and sufficient
resolution. For example, attempting to fill the gap with an older
generation microwave sounder (i.e., the DMSP SSMIS) actually degrades
the weather forecast. Other than the ATMS and the CrIS which are
already under contract for JPSS1, the IRT is not aware of any other
high fidelity instruments that can be developed and procured in time to
support a potential gap in 2017.
For these reasons, the IRT recommended to immediately procure at
least three of the ATMS and the CrIS instruments. Block buys not only
make the unit cost less expensive, but also can reduce schedule risk by
having available spares should a component or a board fail in
development or test. Once these instruments have been acquired, there
may be several options to fly them in space--as hosted payloads,
perhaps on a commercial satellite. However, due to the time criticality
and the potential impact of a data gap, the IRT still recommends
investigating the option to host these instruments (ATMS and CrIS) on a
free flyer.
______
Response to Written Questions Submitted by Hon. Dan Coats to
A. Thomas Young
The 2013 IRT report notes that with the cancellation of NPOESS and
the DOD's subsequent termination of DWSS, today there is an
``unacceptably high risk'' of a gap in U.S. polar weather coverage.
While the IRT report does mostly look at civil programs, one way to
increase the robustness of both civil and DOD weather imagery would be
to leverage the low cost of hosting imagery sensors in the Canadian
Polar Communications and Weather satellites.
Question 1. If DOD were to take action and fund weather imagery in
FY15, could this provide spinoff benefit to NOAA and our observations?
Answer. It is possible that if DOD were to take action and obtain
additional weather data, that the data could provide benefits to NOAA
and the NWS. These possible benefits are why the IRT recommended that
NOAA have discussions with the Air Force, who was in the process of
conducting an Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) study for their polar
weather data needs. It is possible that some of these AoA concepts
might be available before 2017, particularly to guard against a data
gap from a premature S-NPP failure. Historically, there have been
mutually beneficial arrangements and data sharing between the DOD and
NOAA. As noted in Question 1, to mitigate the potential gap in polar
data, what is critically needed are high quality microwave sounder and
infrared interferometric (ATMS and CrIS level) data.
Question 2. Did the IRT look at the PCW option in particular?
Answer. The IRT did not look at Canada's Polar Communication and
Weather (PCW) mission. However, the PCW mission is currently at an
early stage of development, with an estimated procurement start in
November 2016 and will not be available for gap mitigation in the time-
frame suggested in the report (Mid FY16--Mid FY22). The IRT continues
to recommend that emphasis should be placed on a short-term gap filler.
From a longer term perspective, it is possible that PCW could help
bolster the robustness of the JPSS program. However, at this time the
IRT cannot assess the suitability of the PCW mission orbit or data for
NOAA's weather data needs.
______
Response to Written Questions Submitted by Hon. Marco Rubio to
Barry Lee Myers
Question 1. Are there any legal or regulatory issues that impede
government use of private sector data for forecasting?
Executive Summary Answer. No, but the law requires the private
sector data must also be made available to the public in real time and
the method by which it is incorporated into the weather forecasts must
be transparent and verifiable. From a practical perspective, to do
otherwise, the structure of the whole American Weather Enterprise will
be seriously and negatively impacted.
Full Answer. In 1994, I was asked to offer thoughts to the U.N.'s
World Meteorological Organization about weather information and its
use. What I said was, in part:
Viewed broadly, weather is a world-wide resource.
In gathering weather information, time is of the essence.
In analyzing it, and in distributing the results of that
analysis of weather observations, time is critical.
And, in getting this analysis into the hands of those who
need it to protect life and property, not only is time
critical, but the very nature of the message and its
understandability by those receiving it, is paramount.
In the United States, the National Weather Service has a specific
role to play and America's Weather Industry, and the academic and
research communities, each have important and complementary roles to
play. It is a unique environment and special partnership for the
benefit of the public. Together, it is known as the American Weather
Enterprise, with a capital ``E.''
The laws of the United States do not hamper or restrict the nature
of the private sector. In fact, unlike many other countries, they
encourage private sector and especially weather industry activities.
The United States Government collects, and disseminates data from
local and remote sensor platforms, public and private, runs forecast
models, and prepares and makes special warnings and also general public
forecasts.
Weather companies and academic and research institutions also
collect and disseminate data, and make weather forecasts, some specific
and tailored and some general public forecasts.
Weather companies also develop communication methods designed to
move weather information as quickly and as understandably as possible
to the end user.
In fact, the government and the weather industry work together, to
carry out these functions.
This joint system of public and private cooperation helps to save
countless lives and prevent hundreds of millions of dollars in property
damage per year in the United States--in fact it has a name--The
Public/Private Partnership.
This cooperative effort, better than anywhere else on earth, is
dedicated to the proposition that weather information is (1) highly
time sensitive and (2) a perishable scientific commodity, which, if
utilized quickly and communicated to people who are in a position to
act, effects real economic efficiencies, saves lives, and, results in
benefit to the Nation.
Another guiding principle is that all scientists should be free to
access scientific data so that they may render timely viewpoints and
opinions on what future weather may be--that is create forecasts and
warnings.
This freedom of access to scientific data and its free use for the
benefit of society is typically American.
In the United States this ``free and open access'' is founded upon
principles having to do with free speech and freedom of information.
These comments seem self-evident to many. In making these remarks
to the World Meteorological Organization, almost 20 years ago, these
comments did not seem self-evident to many of the hundreds in the
audience from around the world.
The weather industry in the United States was born of the concept
of ``free and open'' availability of weather information.
It has led the world as a model of growing success, transitioning
from a government agency ``doing it all,'' at the end of World War II,
to massive infusion of weather into every American's life through
companies like The Weather Channel and AccuWeather--and a growing
global presence by American companies as the preferred suppliers of
weather to the world.
It has been a transition of work from the government to private
industry involving no letting of government contracts, no industry
subsidies, and no cost to the government.
In fact a tax paying industry creating perhaps tens of thousands of
jobs--has been born.
It truly has built on a concept that if information is free for
all, we should leave the rest to ingenious, innovative, and
entrepreneurs, who would find ways to make a viable industry.
By the end of 2013, figures suggest that American Weather Companies
will have weather apps and access portals on or accessible from perhaps
two billion digital devices worldwide.
People who had no weather forecast of merit for 25 minutes ahead,
now have forecasts, on an hour by hour basis, for 25 days ahead on
AccuWeather.com.
People who had no warnings for severe and deadly weather, now can
use at a device that looks like something they would have used to ask
``Scotty beam me up'' that contains more information than Star Trek
creators ever imagined.
These comments seem self-evident to many today.
In 1994 if I had told anyone that by 2008 a private weather company
in Pennsylvania (AccuWeather) would tell a manufacturing facility in
Mississippi (Caterpillar), a thousand miles away, 21 minutes in
advance, that a severe tornado was heading right at it and they needed
to shelter their people--and that the private weather warning would
save 88 lives in a single electronic message--it would not have been
believed.
In 2005 the U.S. Congress Bi-partisan Committee on the review of
Hurricane Katrina cited AccuWeather saying ``AccuWeather issued a
forecast predicting the target of Katrina's landfall nearly 12 hours
before the NHC [National Hurricane Center] issued its first warning,
and argued the extra time could have aided evacuation of the region.''
I am not telling you this to place AccuWeather in the spotlight. My
friends at The Weather Channel and at many other non-governmental
organizations have this and other important capabilities.
Everywhere within the American Weather Enterprise there are
meteorologists, scientists, researchers, and professionals of all kinds
of equal merit.
But the government is uniquely positioned to ensure and enhance the
provision of weather data and the issuance of warnings for the public
aimed at the protection of life and property.
These activities also require research and development, transfer of
knowledge, technologies and applications to other government agencies
and the private sector.
And this is needed with regard to advanced radar technologies,
aerial observing systems, high performance computing networks, advanced
forecast modeling and other government-appropriate activities.
We all need to protect this core functionality and the research
that keeps the entire American weather enterprise ahead of the curve.
We also need to be cognizant of the fact that private weather data
is emerging from private sources; in the weather field, if these data
are restricted by taxpayer money paying for critical scientific data
that needs to be kept secret, it will degrade the entire weather effort
of the Nation.
Free and Open Access Drives America's Unique Success
So indulge me for a few minutes to point out that if we want to
successfully approach the present problems the weather enterprise may
face we should understand that the huge success we have had, did not
occur serendipitously. It was well planned, thought through, and took
much hard work in all sectors of the weather enterprise over many
years.
In 1980 the Paperwork Reduction Act, sponsored in part by
Representative William Klinger (R-PA) was passed. The law stated its
purpose was, among other things to:
Ensure the greatest possible public benefit from information
created, collected, maintained, used, shared, and disseminated by or
for the Federal Government.
It also said one of its purposes was to provide for the
dissemination of public information on a timely basis, on equitable
terms, and in a manner that promotes the utility of the information to
the public and makes effective use of information technology.
In follow up to the law, the Office of Management and Budget issued
Circular A-130, which was updated over the following decades.
The Circular is lengthy, but states in part:
The free flow of information between the government and the
public is essential to a democratic society. It requires
dissemination of information on equitable and timely terms.
[Emphasis added]
It states the government must avoid establishing, or
permitting others to establish on their behalf, exclusive,
restricted, or other distribution arrangements that interfere
with the availability of information dissemination on a timely
or equitable basis. [Emphasis added]
It declares agencies shall avoid establishing restrictions
or regulations, including the charging of fees or royalties, on
the re-use, resale, or re-dissemination of Federal information,
setting user charges at a level only sufficient to recover the
cost of dissemination, but no higher.
Under Section 105 of the Copyright Act of the United States, in
general, government information is not entitled to domestic copyright
protection declaring it free--domestically.
The 1991 NWS Public Private Partnership policy was an early
cooperative attempt to implement concepts from the Paperwork Reduction
Act, Circular A-130 and issues relating to the growing weather
industry.
About ten years later the National Research Council was requested
by the National weather Service to undertake a study of the status of
the enterprise and the Fair Weather Report was issued in 2003.
This led to the AMS Commission on Weather and Climate Enterprise.
And, the Fair Weather Report led to a new partnership policy issued
by NOAA governing its relationship with America's weather industry.
In the main policy section, the first sentence says: ``NOAA will
adhere to the policies contained in the Paperwork Reduction Act, OMB
Circular A-130 and other relevant laws.''
The second sentence says: ``These policies are based on the premise
that government information is a valuable national resource, and the
benefits to society are maximized when government information is
available in a timely and equitable manner to all.''
It goes on to endorse ``Open and unrestricted access.''
And further that NOAA will promote the open and unrestricted
exchange of environmental information worldwide.
NOAA also states it will avoid duplication and competition in areas
not related to the NOAA mission.
So today's policies trace their origins to the core nature of the
republic and critical pieces of Federal legislation and rules long a
part of the fabric of the country's legal structure.
Building on this, NOAA and NWS have developed formal and internal
directives defining what they will do and not do and specifically
stating where government personal will defer to the America's weather
industry.
Even the Weather Ready Nation program now specifically endorses the
role of America's weather industry and states that the requirements and
activities of Weather Ready Nation participants may be fulfilled
through arrangements with America's weather industry.
And, the Open Data Executive Order signed by President Obama just
this month on May 9, 2013 stated:
``For example, decades ago, the Federal Government made both
weather data and the Global Positioning System (GPS) freely
available to anyone. Since then, American entrepreneurs and
innovators have used these resources to create navigation
systems, weather newscasts and warning systems, location-based
applications, precision farming tools, and much more.''
Question 2. How can we better leverage resources in the private
sector, particularly as the threat of data gaps increases?
Executive Summary Answer. Data from the private sector is available
to both the government and the American Weather Industry and others.
The effect of government licensing such data under licensing
arrangements that makes the data available in real time as part of the
data flow from the government to the public will guarantee the
suppliers of a floor which will encourage investing in new data
sources. Experience suggests such arrangements do little to impede
private companies from also securing license for the data source
originator because by direct access nano-seconds are saved and such
speed is a competitive and lifesaving effect. Data wants to be free and
it will leak out and artificial markets damages the flow of data where
it is needed. Supporting data providers in restricting data, costs
lives. We see various models at present in the United States including
in the lightening field, in the agricultural field, and emerging in the
launching of satellites (interestingly some of these satellite
companies appear to agree with this model).
Full Answer: See Full Answer to Question 1. for more background.
______
Response to Written Question Submitted by Hon. Marco Rubio to
Lee E. Ohanian, Ph.D.
Question. You point out several areas where the priorities of the
National Weather Service Employees Organization often contradict direct
measures we could take to make the National Weather Service more
efficient. How can we better address these contradictions?
Answer. Achieving a more efficient relationship between the
National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Weather Service
Employees Organization (NWSEO) requires aligning the incentives of the
NWS and NWSEO to achieve more efficient work rules and deployment of
workers, and requires benchmarking compensation levels to private
sector counterparts.
The NWSEO identifies the following compensation and work rule
changes on their website (www.nwseo.org), all of which raise questions
regarding the impact of these changes on the efficiency and cost of the
NWS:
1. Saving the CWSUs (center weather station unit to forecast to FAA)
from consolidation--a culmination of a five year lobbying
effort by NWSEO to preserve both aviation safety and NWS
employee jobs. NWSEO spent over $200,000 in this lobbying
effort and obtained the support of the Senate Commerce
Committee, the House Science Committee and the House and Senate
Commerce, Justice and Science Appropriations Subcommittees
2. Securing back pay for overtime for nearly 200 NWS employees.
Securing FLSA (fair labor standards act) Non-Exempt status of
an additional 165 NWS employees. The NWS has agreed to pay two
years' lost overtime wages and liquidated damages for those
employees, as well.
3. Winning an appeal to bargain to increase staffing at Anchorage
WFO (national weather forecast service office) by 10
positions--this directs the National Weather Service to bargain
with NWSEO over a proposal that would increase staffing at the
Anchorage WFO by ten positions.
4. Securing special projects designed to increase aviation safety,
which include increased NWS personnel at the CWSU and WFOs in
New York City, Atlanta, and Chicago.
5. NWSEO secured an agreement that upgrades to a GS-8 every
Administrative Support Assistant at field offices around the
country. The GS-8 upgrade includes approximately one million
dollars in extra pay and benefits to the lowest paid NWS
employees each and every year from now on.
Compensation
In terms of insuring that compensation levels are competitive, the
NWS should routinely gather data on pay and fringe benefits from the
private weather forecasting services and from other employers of
meteorologists and weather-related occupations for comparable jobs.
Some of these data are available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
which publishes data on pay for both private and public sector weather
forecasters on ``Occupational Employment Statistics'' website: http://
www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes192021.htm.
This website does not, however, include fringe benefits, which is
important because benefits may be greater in the public sector.
Moreover, any compensation comparison should try to account for
differences in job security, which may be higher in the public sector.
If this is not being done currently, it should be a high priority item.
Work Rules and Deployment of Labor
Work rules and the deployment of labor and of other resources at
the NWS must achieve a higher level of efficiency. Ideally, the NWS and
the NWSEO should work cooperatively to achieve a common set of goals
aimed at improving efficiency and productivity, and maximizing the
value of the NWS to its main users. This cooperative approach is
becoming more common in the private sector, as increased global
competition is making achieving high productivity much more important
than in the past.
In the public sector, this is more difficult to achieve because
there is so much less competition and the users of public sector
services often do not pay user fees. A top priority for the NWS and the
NWSEO is to work cooperatively to improve work rules and in particular
identify changes at CWSUs and any other NWS offices that can improve
productivity.
Note that increasing productivity will in some cases go against the
NWSEOs previous efforts to save jobs and to save NWS offices. To deal
with this tension, cost-benefit analyses should be used to determine
the economic viability of NWS offices. If the NWS identifies a
particular office as not providing sufficient value, then the NWSEO
should provide analysis that can demonstrate how to improve efficiency
and value in order to enhance the economic viability of an office.
Saving NWS offices or jobs must be justified on the basis of economic
value in terms of the benefits must exceed the costs of providing the
services.
Summary
In summary, the NWS needs to routinely compare compensation to peer
organizations in order to insure that NWS compensation is justified,
and the NWS and NWSEO need to jointly acknowledge the fact that work
rules and the number of workers, and the location of workers, must be
guided by the principle of productivity and economic viability. The
guiding principle is that NWS jobs and NWS offices must be justifiable
on a cost-benefit basis. More broadly, the NWSEO must recognize that
saving jobs and weather offices cannot be done just to benefit NWSEO
members, but rather, must enhance productivity and the cost efficiency
of providing NWS services.
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