[Senate Hearing 112-638]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]
S. Hrg. 112-638
WEATHERING CHANGE: NEED FOR CONTINUED INNOVATION IN FORECASTING AND
PREDICTION
=======================================================================
HEARING
before the
SUBCOMMITTEE ON OCEANS, ATMOSPHERE, FISHERIES, AND COAST GUARD
of the
COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE,
SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION
UNITED STATES SENATE
ONE HUNDRED TWELFTH CONGRESS
FIRST SESSION
__________
NOVEMBER 16, 2011
__________
Printed for the use of the Committee on Commerce, Science, and
Transportation
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SENATE COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION
ONE HUNDRED TWELFTH CONGRESS
FIRST SESSION
JOHN D. ROCKEFELLER IV, West Virginia, Chairman
DANIEL K. INOUYE, Hawaii KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON, Texas,
JOHN F. KERRY, Massachusetts Ranking
BARBARA BOXER, California OLYMPIA J. SNOWE, Maine
BILL NELSON, Florida JIM DeMINT, South Carolina
MARIA CANTWELL, Washington JOHN THUNE, South Dakota
FRANK R. LAUTENBERG, New Jersey ROGER F. WICKER, Mississippi
MARK PRYOR, Arkansas JOHNNY ISAKSON, Georgia
CLAIRE McCASKILL, Missouri ROY BLUNT, Missouri
AMY KLOBUCHAR, Minnesota JOHN BOOZMAN, Arkansas
TOM UDALL, New Mexico PATRICK J. TOOMEY, Pennsylvania
MARK WARNER, Virginia MARCO RUBIO, Florida
MARK BEGICH, Alaska KELLY AYOTTE, New Hampshire
DEAN HELLER, Nevada
Ellen L. Doneski, Chief of Staff
James Reid, Deputy Chief of Staff
Todd Bertoson, Republican Staff Director
Jarrod Thompson, Republican Deputy Staff Director
Rebecca Seidel, Republican General Counsel and Chief Investigator
------
SUBCOMMITTEE ON OCEANS, ATMOSPHERE, FISHERIES, AND COAST GUARD
MARK BEGICH, Alaska, Chairman
DANIEL K. INOUYE, Hawaii OLYMPIA J. SNOWE, Maine, Ranking
JOHN F. KERRY, Massachusetts ROGER F. WICKER, Mississippi
BILL NELSON, Florida JOHNNY ISAKSON, Georgia
MARIA CANTWELL, Washington JOHN BOOZMAN, Arkansas
FRANK R. LAUTENBERG, New Jersey MARCO RUBIO, Florida
AMY KLOBUCHAR, Minnesota KELLY AYOTTE, New Hampshire
MARK WARNER, Virginia DEAN HELLER, Nevada
C O N T E N T S
----------
Page
Hearing held on November 16, 2011................................ 1
Statement of Senator Begich...................................... 1
Statement of Senator Snowe....................................... 3
Statement of Senator Boozman..................................... 31
Witnesses
Hon. Mary M. Glackin, Deputy Under Secretary for Operations,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S.
Department of Commerce......................................... 5
Prepared statement........................................... 7
Hon. Todd J. Zinser, Inspector General, U.S. Department of
Commerce....................................................... 14
Prepared statement........................................... 15
David C. Trimble, Director, Natural Resources and Environment,
U.S. Government Accountability Office.......................... 19
Prepared statement........................................... 20
Rear Admiral Cari B. Thomas, Director of Response Policy, United
States Coast Guard............................................. 25
Tom Iseman, Program Director, Water and Climate Adaptation,
Western Governors' Association................................. 37
Prepared statement........................................... 39
Dr. Peter P. Neilley, Vice President, Global Forecasting
Services, The Weather Channel Companies........................ 44
Prepared statement........................................... 46
Robert S. Marshall, Founder and CEO, Earth Networks, Inc......... 49
Prepared statement........................................... 50
Appendix
John D. Rockefeller IV, U.S. Senator, West Virginia, prepared
statement...................................................... 63
Daniel A. Sobien, President, National Weather Service Employees
Organization, prepared statement............................... 63
Response to written questions submitted to Hon. Mary M. Glackin
by:
Hon. John D. Rockefeller IV.................................. 66
Hon. Maria Cantwell.......................................... 71
Hon. Amy Klobuchar........................................... 75
Hon. Olympia J. Snowe........................................ 77
Hon. Roger F. Wicker......................................... 78
Response to written questions submitted by Hon. John D.
Rockefeller IV to Hon. Todd J. Zinser.......................... 80
Response to written questions submitted to David C. Trimble by:
Hon. Amy Klobuchar........................................... 81
Hon. Olympia J. Snowe........................................ 82
Response to written question submitted by Hon. Roger F. Wicker to
Rear Admiral Cari B. Thomas.................................... 82
Response to written questions submitted by Hon. John D.
Rockefeller IV to Tom Iseman................................... 83
Response to written questions submitted by Hon. Roger F. Wicker
to:
Dr. Peter P. Neilley......................................... 84
Robert S. Marshall........................................... 85
WEATHERING CHANGE:
NEED FOR CONTINUED INNOVATION
IN FORECASTING AND PREDICTION
----------
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2011
U.S. Senate,
Subcommittee on Oceans, Atmosphere, Fisheries, and
Coast Guard,
Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation,
Washington, DC.
The Committee met, pursuant to notice, at 10:33 a.m. in
room SR-253, Russell Senate Office Building, Hon. Mark Begich,
Chairman of the Subcommittee, presiding.
OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. MARK BEGICH,
U.S. SENATOR FROM ALASKA
Senator Begich. It's like the beginning of church. Everyone
is very quiet. I'm not sure if we're starting or not, but we
are. So thank you all very much for being here.
I will call this meeting to order of the Oceans
Subcommittee. Thank you again for the panelists to be here this
morning. We anticipate one or two additional senators to be
here, but I wanted to go ahead and start the meeting. And
again, good morning to all of you.
We're here to talk about the weather and the climate, which
really is just the same as weather, on a longer time scale.
Today's hearing is meant to provide oversight of these two
important functions of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, otherwise known as NOAA.
NOAA's weather programs touch the lives of every American
every day. Forecasts help people make informed decisions,
whether a family planning their annual trip from their village
to Anchorage, or a fisherman trying to stay safe in the Gulf of
Maine.
And while the phrase ``climate change'' is always
controversial, we in Alaska are already living the effects.
Having solid information about climate trends is critical for
good governance and business planning. I'm proud to serve on
the Commerce Committee where, for decades, both Republicans and
Democratic chairmen have promoted the highest standards of
scientific integrity.
I'm a big supporter of efficient and effective government,
too. So as I look forward to hearing more today about efforts
to better support state and local governments and business
decisionmakers through the creation of the Climate Service
within NOAA, you don't have to be a climate scientist to wonder
what's going on this year.
2011 has shattered weather and climate records across the
country, from record heat and cold, to snow and rain, drought
and flooding. Even in Alaska, where we are used to braving many
extremes, last week's massive storm was a sobering reminder of
the importance of knowing what's coming and being as prepared
as possible.
Last week, Alaska was hit by a massive winter storm. Had it
hit the lower 48, it would have stretched from Mexico to
Canada. With hurricane-force winds and 10-foot tidal surges, it
was truly an epic event. Fortunately, NOAA was able to give
clear warnings of what was coming. Alaskans are resilient. They
hunkered down, and communities implemented their emergency
plans. While assessments are still under way, the damage could
have been far worse if we did not have the benefit of those
warnings from NOAA a few days in advance of the storm.
NOAA weather satellites are key to providing these advanced
warnings. I joined several members of this committee this year
to fight for funding of the Joint Polar Satellite System. Polar
satellites provide critical data for forecasters of severe
weather nationwide, and to Alaska in particular, since NOAA's
other satellites don't adequately cover our northern state.
I'm pleased to report that the House and Senate conference
report on NOAA appropriations supported funding for that
expensive yet critical program.
I hope today's hearing will help NOAA and the Committee
find ways to continue to promote the highest level of
innovation, even as we recognize the tough budget climate we
face for the coming years. Our nation cannot afford to overlook
the importance of reliable weather information.
Today's hearing is meant to push deeper and promote cost-
effective and earlier decisions regarding program management in
the deployment of weather and climate services. The last
administration ran up a multi-billion price tag due to program
delays in the management of the weather satellites, and I want
to make sure this administration is a better steward of the
taxpayer funding.
For these reasons I am pleased to welcome our witnesses
here today, and I want to extend a very special thank you to
Deputy Under Secretary Mary Glackin.
Ms. Glackin, I understand you are to retire from what has
been an exceptional career in public service. You have worked
at NOAA for more than three decades, earning seemingly every
professional award possible, including twice the Presidential
Rank Award.
I am grateful you are here today, particularly given your
own expertise and your leadership in improving weather
operations by capitalizing on new technology and science. Your
retirement is a real loss to NOAA and to the Federal
Government, but I wish you every success and fulfillment in
your future endeavors, and thank you again for being here.
I'm also pleased to welcome the Honorable Todd Zinser,
Department of Commerce Inspector General. Mr. Zinser will
testify about the challenges NOAA faces in its efforts to
develop and launch the Joint Polar Satellite System, while
minimizing the loss of critical weather and climate
information.
David Trimble, Director of the Natural Resources and
Environment branch of the Government Accountability Office,
will assist the Committee in providing recommendations to help
advance Federal climate change strategic planning efforts.
And I'm honored to welcome Rear Admiral Cari B. Thomas,
Director of Response Policy in the United States Coast Guard.
With this year's extreme weather events around the country,
including last week's massive Alaskan storm, I welcome your
timely perspective regarding the importance of NOAA weather and
climate information to the success of the Coast Guard's search
and rescue mission.
Panel 2 will include Dr. Peter Neilley, Vice President of
Global Forecasting Services for the Weather Channel Companies,
which I was happy to participate in recently about the Alaska
storm. Doctor, it's amazing they let a senator on the Weather
Channel, but we thank you for that.
Dr. Neilley will speak to the relationship between the
private sector and NOAA in the development of weather and
climate information and outline the priorities for NOAA's
services. And I know you're a big fan of the new Coast Guard
reality show also, Dr. Neilley.
Tom Iseman of the Western Governors' Association will offer
perspective on the significant impacts that severe weather
events and long-term climate trends can have on life in the
West. He will also speak to the partnership that I believe
shows significant promise, the Governors' close coordination
with NOAA on the delivery and sharing of objective, credible
weather and climate information and services.
Thank you all for willing to be witnesses. I will ask
Senator Snowe to say a couple of words but give her a second
here.
I will also say, with the Coast Guard's new reality show, I
will say that Alaska now has the most reality shows of any
state----
[Laughter.]
Senator Begich.--anywhere, and we love it because it shows
more about Alaska. But it also shows, if you notice, almost
every one of those shows has a significant weather component. I
don't care if you're flying or out there catching crab or in
the Coast Guard, whatever it might be. It is weather that
dictates a lot of our activity in Alaska, and literally our
weather systems are vast and wide when you think about where we
are and how large we are.
So again, thanks to this panel and the panel that will be
coming up next.
Let me ask my Ranking Member, Senator Snowe, to say a few
words, and then we'll start the discussion.
Senator Snowe?
STATEMENT OF HON. OLYMPIA J. SNOWE,
U.S. SENATOR FROM MAINE
Senator Snowe. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, for holding this
hearing on the state of our nation's environmental and weather
observation infrastructure and satellite systems. As you know,
I've been a long supporter of the Integrated Ocean Observing
System, introducing authorizing legislation in each of the last
four Congresses.
The IOOS system, which was first piloted in the Gulf of
Maine in 1999 and has been collecting data since 2001, has
proven to be a highly successful nationwide network of regional
coastal and ocean observing systems. It served as a model in
the development of innovative applications that makes data
readily available to decisionmakers in real time for critical
uses ranging from oil spill response in Portland Harbor to a
lobsterman checking wave heights offshore.
Certainly, we have witnessed the benefits of this network
approach in Maine. Indeed, scientists at the Woods Hole
Oceanographic Institute have determined that the Gulf of Maine
Observing System has returned six dollars to our region's
economy for every one dollar invested in the system.
Now, as we look forward, this hearing is especially timely.
We are at the intersection of the previous satellite program,
the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite
System, or NPOESS, which operated from 1994 to 2010, when it
was dismantled by the White House Office of Science and
Technology; and the Joint Polar Satellite Program, or the JPSS,
currently under development by NOAA and NASA.
On October 28, the only Earth-observing satellite completed
under the NPOESS program, the NPOESS Preparatory Project, or
NPP--a lot of acronyms--was successfully launched as a bridge
to the next generation of the Joint Polar Satellite System. And
frankly, there should be no question it is now crucial in order
to preserve the continuity of vital data for our long-range
weather forecasting climate record that we ensure the $920
million appropriated for the Joint Polar Satellite Program,
which represents over one-third of NOAA's Fiscal Year 2012
appropriation, is implemented efficiently and in a timely
manner.
The fact of the matter is, according to the Government
Accountability Office and the Inspector General, whom we'll
hear from today, we could expect to see a gap in the data
provided by our polar satellites several years from now due
either to the failure of the NPP satellite or delayed launch of
its replacement, the JPSS-1. Yet underlying acquisition and
management issues that led to the dissolution of the NPOESS in
the first place remain unresolved.
Indeed, the GAO has reported that the NPOESS was plagued by
cost overruns and delays since 2005. The program's original
cost estimate was $6.5 billion, yet by 2010 that estimate had
more than doubled to $15 billion. Moreover, the program
suffered setbacks to the development of vital new sensors,
which delayed the launch of the final NPOESS satellite for 5
years. And now, the most recent reports on the development of
the Joint Polar Satellite System Program from the Inspector
General, as well as the GAO, regrettably show that cost
estimates have not improved, and that sensor and ground system
development may delay the launch of the JPSS-1.
Well, we simply cannot afford to repeat the mistakes of the
NPOESS program in implementing the Joint Polar Satellite
System, nor can we countenance new problems that the GAO is
concerned with in terms of a lack of interagency strategy for
environmental observations among NOAA, NASA, and the Department
of Defense, which could result in loss of economic benefit from
a coordinated approach and limit our ability to understand
long-term climate change. The stakes are simply far too high
for failure.
According to the National Climatic Data Center, the
economic costs of severe weather events have exceeded $50
billion this year alone. Our ability to effectively predict and
mitigate extensive damage from severe weather events, such as
the massive coastal storm that just struck Alaska, relies
heavily on the continual data coverage provided by NOAA's
geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites. The two- to three-
day forecasting capability provided by this data can mean the
difference between safe evacuation or lost lives in the case of
a hurricane, or provide enough time to take shelter before a
tornado strikes.
Given the devastation we have witnessed in the Midwest and
the Southeast in April and May, clearly these extra minutes and
days matter greatly in the context of saving human lives from
the strength of the storm. Indisputably, the long-term
investment in the infrastructure that provides this critical
information must be a national priority.
In the short term, we must also explore a range of options
to ensure data continuity via alternative sources. The private
sector is thinking creatively about how to obtain the same
forecasting capacity with fewer resources by creating new
platforms capable of supporting a range of sensors or using
existing ones such as commercial aircraft in different ways.
So I look forward to hearing from each of our panelists
today on the innovations and technologies they believe can
provide the most accurate, cost-effective information that we
rely on in so many aspects of our daily life and commercial
activities. So with that, I welcome the panelists, and I thank
you, Mr. Chairman, again for convening this hearing.
Senator Begich. Thank you very much, Senator Snowe.
Let's first start with the Deputy Under Secretary of
Operations, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
Mary Glackin. And again, I can't stress enough your 30 years of
service to this country. I know when people retire it really
means they're going to be doing more work in some field that
they've been wanting to do for a long time, so I wish you the
best there. But, please.
STATEMENT OF HON. MARY M. GLACKIN, DEPUTY UNDER
SECRETARY FOR OPERATIONS, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND
ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Ms. Glackin. Thank you, Chairman Begich, and thank you for
your kind words about not only myself but NOAA services. And,
Ranking Member Snowe, we appreciate all of the support from
this committee, and also the opportunity to testify in front of
you today about the need for, and NOAA's role in, supporting
innovations to improve weather and climate services.
NOAA has a leading role in understanding changes in weather
and climate extremes, including trends in severe local storms
and extremes in precipitation, whether it's too little or too
much, too often or too infrequent. This year we have seen an
unprecedented number of natural disasters, from the heart-
wrenching tornado outbreaks in Alabama and neighboring states
in April, and in Joplin, Missouri in May, to the record
flooding in the upper Plains and the Northeast, to the extreme
drought that is continuing across the Southwest.
We have seen at least 10 disasters, each costing $1 billion
or more this year. In the face of these challenges, NOAA has
been able to provide accurate forecasts because of its
continued investments in mission-focused research and
development that drive innovation. There is much more to be
done if we are to achieve new, life-saving advancements for the
future, and NOAA is committed to working with its partners in
the climate and weather enterprise to continue to spur
innovation and build upon this record of success.
Our scientists have been at the forefront of weather and
climate science, forecasting and public preparedness for
decades. Our science helps save lives and livelihoods. I want
to briefly discuss two timely examples, weather radar and
environmental satellites.
In recent years, NOAA has developed a new weather radar
upgrade called Dual Polarization Radar Technology. This
capability is being installed this Fiscal Year and will assist
forecasters in the warning and forecast process, leading to,
among other things, better estimates of precipitation for water
management, more accurate flood warnings, better identification
of rain to snow transitions, and more precise severe
thunderstorm warnings.
Now, to turn to polar satellites, which have been
highlighted here today, they have supported weather forecast
models for over 30 years. NOAA is working toward the launch of
the next polar satellites, the Joint Polar Satellite System,
JPSS. We thank the Committee and the Senate as a whole for
their recognition of this national priority, and their support
in the Senate's Fiscal Year 2012 appropriations bill for NOAA.
Nonetheless, NOAA is expecting a data gap beginning as
early as late 2016, when the current satellites reach the end
of their life expectancies. Within available resources, NOAA is
preparing to mitigate this gap to the greatest extent possible.
NOAA is continuing working to improve the science and
practice of forecasting and prediction. It's not enough,
however, to provide longer lead times for droughts, seasonal
flooding, heavy rainfall events, and heat waves. We must also
ensure that people hear these warnings and take informed and
appropriate action to protect their own safety.
The mixture of technology and social science advancements
is a new approach to building a weather-ready nation, one that
we expect to provide huge returns measured in avoided economic
losses and lives saved. In all its efforts to support
innovation, NOAA works in close partnership with the broader
weather and climate enterprise that includes other Federal
agencies, the private sector weather and climate industry,
academic institutions and consortia, state and local
governments, and other non-government organizations. My written
testimony provides several examples of these ongoing
partnerships, and I'm pleased that you'll hear testimony from
several key partners at this hearing today.
So in conclusion, the investments made by Congress and the
administration in NOAA's weather prediction and warning
capabilities directly saves lives in the United States during
these disasters. NOAA is continuing to innovate to improve
preparedness, detection, modeling, and forecasting efforts
necessary for improved decisionmaking and to save lives and
property. Although nothing can eliminate the physical threat
that severe weather and natural hazards pose, NOAA has
demonstrated success in better predicting them, reducing their
impact, and helping vulnerable communities become more
resilient to their devastating effects, and will work to
continuously improve its products and services to the Nation.
I'll be happy to take any questions from the Committee.
[The prepared statement of Ms. Glackin follows:]
Prepared Statement of Hon. Mary M. Glackin, Deputy Under Secretary for
Operations, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S.
Department of Commerce
Good morning Chairman Begich, Ranking Member Snowe, and Members of
the Subcommittee. My name is Mary Glackin and I am the Deputy Under
Secretary for Operations at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA). Thank you for the opportunity to testify today
about the need for, and NOAA's role in, supporting innovation to
improve weather and climate services.
NOAA, since its beginnings, has relied on mission-focused research
and innovation as a means of improving services to the Nation. NOAA has
the sole responsibility of issuing severe weather warnings to
communities across the country. NOAA-led weather innovations such as
the national Doppler RADAR network and weather modeling improvements
continue to provide our Nation with increases in advanced warnings that
protect lives and property from tornadoes and other severe weather
events. This year we have seen an unprecedented number of natural
disasters, from the heart wrenching tornado outbreaks in Alabama and
neighboring states in April, Joplin, Missouri in May, to record
flooding in the upper Plains and the Northeast. In the face of these
challenges, NOAA has been able to provide advanced and accurate
forecasts because of its continued investment in the long-term research
and development that drive innovation. There is much more to be done if
we are to achieve new life saving advancements in the future, and NOAA
is committed to working with its academic, private sector, and other
partners in the broader climate and weather enterprise to continue this
record of success.
NOAA scientists have been at the forefront of weather and climate
science, forecasting and public preparedness for decades--our science
helps save lives and livelihoods. NOAA has a leading role in
understanding changes in weather and climate extremes, such as trends
in severe local storms and extremes in precipitation--too little or too
much, too often or too infrequent. Extreme weather and associated
societal impacts have increased in recent years, and with our changing
climate, the Nation can expect more frequent extreme weather events in
the future. To combat this increased vulnerability, communities across
the country must become more resilient to extreme events, with smarter
land use planning, more widespread use of emergency action plans, and
numerous other actions.
Our nation's environmental predictive capabilities are supported by
four foundational pillars: observations, computer modeling (including
High Performance Computing), scientific research, and our people, who
provide forecasts, warnings, and decision support services to key
decisionmakers. By strengthening the pillars--through improved
satellite and in-situ observations, computational capacity, and coupled
atmosphere, ocean, land models, and necessary research--we can
revolutionize the forecast process across the entire spectrum, from
relatively small-scale, short range applications to long range weather
and climate predictions.
Yet, the success of NOAA's mission should not only be measured by
the accuracy of its information, but by the effectiveness of its
application. As such, NOAA is pursuing a number of innovative
approaches to not only to provide significantly more lead time for
forecasts, but to also ensure that people hear these warnings and take
informed and appropriate actions to protect their own safety. This
mixture of technological and social science advancements is a new
approach to building a ``Weather-Ready Nation'' and one that we expect
to provide huge returns--measured in avoided economic losses and lives
saved.
A Historic Year in the Making
Despite NOAA's quality forecasts and outlooks, severe weather
events in 2011 have demonstrated the need for continued investment in
scientific innovation to improve environmental intelligence. 2011 has
already established itself in the record books as a historic year for
weather-related disasters, and it is not over. We have already seen ten
$1-billion-plus disasters. Total damages from weather- and water-
related events since January for the United States are well over $45
billion and climbing. 2011 is now the fourth deadliest tornado year for
the United States since 1875, and the deadliest since 1936, with 548
people killed as of November 6. April 2011 ranks as the most active
tornado month on record with 875 tornadoes, breaking the previous
record of 542 set in 2003. More tornadoes occurred on April 27 of this
year than any other day in the past 61 years. On May 22, a large
portion of Joplin, Missouri was devastated by an EF-5 (winds greater
than 200 mph) tornado, resulting in over 150 fatalities and over 1,000
persons injured. The Joplin tornado was the deadliest this year and is
ranked 7th among the deadliest tornadoes in U.S. history.
Fueled by record-setting precipitation totals, historic flooding
has hit the Midwest and Ohio Valley, from the smallest streams to the
largest rivers. The Ohio Valley region had its wettest April on record,
and the record goes back to 1895 for some states. Record breaking heavy
rains across Montana and the Dakotas, combined with runoff from record
winter snowpack, caused tremendous flooding across those states, with
Minot, North Dakota, being among the hardest hit.
This year the United States has also experienced severe impacts due
to decadal-scale changes in our climate. Across the U.S. Southwest
extreme drought continues--stretching from New Mexico through Texas and
Oklahoma across the Gulf States and Florida. According to the State of
Texas, the past twelve months--from October 2010 through September
2011--have been the driest in state history since 1895. Nearly two-
thirds of Texas is currently experiencing drought categorized as
``exceptional''--the most severe type. Texas has responded to more than
24,000 fires in approximately the same period, which have burned more
than 3.8 million acres and destroyed over 7,000 businesses and homes.
The Texas Agrilife Extension Service has calculated that Texas'
agriculture sector alone experienced losses of roughly $5.2 billion
through August.
Prime wildfire conditions continue across large portions of the
Southern Plains and Southwestern States. More than 8.2 million acres
have burned nationwide--nearly 120 percent of the 10-year average by
this time of year.
What it Means
Nearly 90 percent of all Presidentially declared disasters are
weather- and water-related, and our vulnerability to the impacts is
increasing as our population grows. As shown in the chart below, the
number of natural catastrophes resulting in property damage and/or
bodily injury in the United States is trending upward, with 2011's
numbers on track to surpass last year's record as of July.
Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE (statistics and chart).
Over the past thirty-plus years, the United States has seen a total
of 107 weather- and climate-related disasters each totaling over $1
billion dollars in damage. Total standardized losses since 1980 exceed
$750 billion (inflation-adjusted to 2011 dollars using the Consumer
Price Index).
Demographic trends and population growth and an increased reliance
on technology have made our society more vulnerable to high impact
events at a time when we are seeing an increasing trend in extreme
weather events. As a result, many agricultural, business, and urban
planners are looking for ways to increase community resilience now. For
example, the City of Chicago is taking steps to prepare for the
likelihood of intense storms striking more often, of rainfall events
causing more flooding, and of warmer temperatures. Local climate
studies, along with recent trends such as an increase in the frequency
of heavy rainfall events, have led them to conclude that proactive
steps are needed to mitigate the cost and impact of these events. New
York City is also engaged in adaptation planning, with particular focus
on the risk of flooding from rising sea level. The Navy's Task Force on
Climate Change has advised that the Navy should prepare to police the
equivalent of an extra sea as the Arctic ice melts. These cities and
organizations, among many others, recognize the need to understand
changes and trends in weather patterns, and to apply this to planning
that may reduce vulnerability to high-impact weather and water events.
Their recognition of the need to reduce their vulnerability to weather
and water extremes is an important first step. However, there is much
more that needs to be done in other sectors of our economy and with the
general public to increase our resiliency to the impacts of these
events.
NOAA Science Spurs Innovation to Better Meet Societal Needs
NOAA's science spurs innovation within the agency. NOAA science
includes discoveries and ever new understanding of the oceans and
atmosphere, and the application of this understanding to such issues as
the causes and consequences of climate change, the physical dynamics of
high-impact weather events, the dynamics of complex ecosystems and
biodiversity, and the ability to model and predict the future states of
these systems. NOAA is supported in these efforts by key pieces of
legislation, such as the Global Change Research Act and America
COMPETES Act, the latter of which this Committee reauthorized in 2010.
NOAA conducts and supports innovative research in order to provide
the public with information, products, and services that enable
stakeholders to make the best decisions possible to advance economic
growth while promoting a healthy environment. NOAA is not alone in
these endeavors and works in close partnership with the broader weather
and climate enterprise that includes other Federal agencies, the
private sector weather and climate industry, academic institutions and
consortia, state and local governments, and other organizations. NOAA
supports research at partner institutions such as Cooperative
Institutes, its Sea Grant college network, Regional Integrated Science
and Assessments program, and other mechanisms.
Often, NOAA-supported advances are conducted in partnership with
the private sector, such as through the NOAA Small Business Innovation
Research program, and foster additional opportunities for economic
growth in the private sector. Many innovative weather and climate
technology advances spurred by NOAA investments in its own and partner
institutions have been commercialized by the private sector and are now
sold by the private sector around the world as the gold standard, such
as NOAA's Argo floats, which are state-of-the-art profiling floats that
are providing realtime pressure, and ocean temperature and salinity for
climate, weather, and other service applications and research efforts.
Research, Observations and Prediction
Longer lead-time forecasts for droughts, seasonal flooding, heavy
rainfall events, heat waves and cold spells provide tremendous economic
value for the Nation through overall reductions in loss of life and in
physical and economic damage. NOAA provides a spectrum of critical
information across a range of time and space scales, which is used by
government, business, emergency managers, planners, and the public. The
value of that information increases when businesses, farmers, energy
producers and utilities, as well as the general public, are prepared
and have effective plans of action to mitigate impacts.
Returning to NOAA's four pillars, future investments in innovation
will be focused on: observations, computer modeling (including High
Performance Computing), foundational scientific research, and our
people, who will be better positioned to advise key decisionmakers
during extreme events. For example, on the larger scale, coupled
environmental models provide improved simulations of the interaction
between the ocean and atmosphere, resulting in more accurate
predictions of tropical cyclone behavior. On smaller scales, higher
resolution observations and models can provide the type of short-term
severe weather predictions that will 1 day allow us to know up to 60
minutes ahead of time where a tornado will touch down, and to provide
warning to the public based on these forecasts.
An example of scientific innovation in observations is NOAA's
deployment of Dual Polarization radar technology. Developed in NOAA,
``Dual Pol'' is the latest weather radar upgrade, providing both
horizontal and now vertical components to what NEXRAD Doppler radar is
seeing. It will add fourteen new products to the suite of data already
available to NOAA weather forecasters and our partners who receive
radar data. These new tools will assist forecasters in the warning and
forecast process. With Dual-Pol radar, forecasters can better glean
information such as the size, shape, and type of precipitation
particles. This information will lead to better estimation of total
precipitation for water management and flood forecasting; accurate
identification of the snow levels in higher terrain; improved ability
to identify areas of heavy rainfall, including flash flooding
potential; identification of rain-to-snow transitions, to alert
travelers and road crews; and more precise severe thunderstorm
warnings, especially for those containing hail. The full benefit of
Dual-Pol radar, however, will not be fully realized until weather
forecasters and research meteorologists develop new ways to utilize the
data specific to their geographic areas and gain experience.
One of NOAA's very promising technologies toward improving higher
resolution observation that supports weather predictive capabilities is
called Multi-Function Phased Array Radar (MPAR)--the potential future
generation replacement of weather radars. These new prototype radars
build off existing military technology with a unique antenna that
collects the same weather information as existing weather radar, but in
about one-sixth the time. MPAR could not only expand the current
weather surveillance network, but also has the potential to meet air
traffic surveillance, homeland security and defense requirements for
identifying and tracking non-cooperative aircraft over the United
States. The decision to determine the feasibility of MPAR deployment is
still several years out and will require significant research and
collaboration with academic and industry partners. Steps for
finalization include research, prototype development, testing and
evaluation, and, if the technology proves feasible, eventual deployment
of new systems.
We anticipate numerous enhanced weather and climate service
benefits from MPAR. MPAR's adaptive sensing capability has the
potential to support continued improvements to the severe weather
warning system for tracking tornadoes, strong wind gusts, hail and
locally heavy rains responsible for flash floods and mudslides. In
addition, MPAR will provide observations that allow for more precise
information about hazardous weather that affect flight safety and
airspace capacity, in turn providing economic efficiency to domestic
aviation and surface transportation systems. Finally, more detailed
atmospheric observations, such as would flow from MPAR, are anticipated
to improve air quality real-time advisories and forecasts, climate
variability monitoring and forecasting, and wildfire monitoring and
prediction.
We know that shifts in weather patterns are often regional in
nature, and have variable time spans. For example, El Nino and La Nina,
which have become household words, are generally predictable over
fairly definable areas and time spans. During the 1997-1998 El Nino and
1998-1999 La Nina, the U.S. agricultural sector experienced damages of
$2.4-2.8 billion and $3.6-10.7 billion (in 2010 dollars), respectively.
We are coming to understand many of these larger scale phenomena, such
as the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is a change in the water
temperature in the North Atlantic that is strongly correlated with
heavy snowfall events in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. These
patterns, observed in-situ by NOAA's Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean (TAO)
buoy array in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, strongly influence and can
help inform NOAA's seasonal forecasts, including the recently published
2011-2012 Winter Outlook. NOAA has successfully transitioned numerous
research innovations such as the TAO array into operations, turning
wise investments into critical operational tools for accurate
environmental prediction.
Our tornado warnings have improved significantly over the past two
decades primarily because of past research efforts. More research would
help us better understand the rapid evolution of severe thunderstorms
and why some produce tornadoes and others do not. We face a similar
challenge with our understanding of hurricanes. While our track
forecasts have improved greatly--our forecast location for 5 days out
is now as accurate as the forecast location for 3 days out was 15 years
ago--we still do not understand what causes some tropical systems to
jump two intensity categories in less than 24 hours, while others do
not. NOAA's goal--through an innovative research-to-operations test-bed
called the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (or HFIP)--is to
demonstrate a 20 percent reduction to the average errors of hurricane
track and intensity forecasts by the end of Fiscal Year and
operationalize that improvement over the next few years. This will
improve the accuracy and reliability of hurricane forecasts; extend
lead time for hurricane forecasts with increased certainty; and
increase confidence in hurricane forecasts. The desired outcome is to
ultimately reduce the Nation's risk to hurricane impacts by delivering
improved forecasts and tools for community planners and other
decisionmakers. The anticipated societal benefits will reduce deaths,
injuries and property damage, and reduce the other costs associated
with hurricanes by enabling decisionmakers to better identify at-risk
populations and property, and by raising the confidence levels to
initiate mitigation measures further in advance of approaching
hurricanes.
NOAA is making investments in key research and development areas
that address a key information gap today between instruments on Earth's
surface and on satellites. One area of NOAA investment that could help
bridge that gap is in Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). Operated by remote
pilots and ranging in wingspan from less than six feet to more than 115
feet, UAS collect data from dangerous or remote areas. UAS have the
potential to improve NOAA's ability to monitor and understand the
global environment by collecting data from areas that are currently
inaccessible. In partnership with NASA NOAA spent 6 weeks in the fall
of 2010 studying hurricane formation and development in the Gulf of
Mexico and the western Atlantic Ocean. Researchers sent the Global
Hawk, equipped with a suite of instruments, over hurricanes Earl, Karl,
and other storms in the region. The UAS flew multiple times over
hurricane eyes, soared above one storm (a record for a unmanned
aircraft system), and collected high-resolution data on the storms'
wind and cloud structures, particles in the air, lightning strikes and
other meteorological variables. NOAA is partnering with other Federal
agencies, academia, and private companies to test a variety of UAS. UAS
may also have significant benefits beyond hurricanes, including new
observational support for improving: the accuracy of other storm,
flood, and drought forecasts, benefiting emergency managers and diverse
private industries; our understanding of climate change; assessments of
changes in Arctic sea ice and effects on ecosystems and coasts; and
fire weather forecasts to increase safety and success in fighting
wildfires that threaten people and property.
NOAA also fosters innovation through partnerships. Water management
decisionmakers require a new generation of water information,
forecasts, and decision support. NOAA is working with its Federal
partners USGS, USACE and others to implement Integrated Water Resources
Science and Services, creating an integrated, high-resolution common
operating picture for water information, supporting timely and critical
water management decision in full coordination and collaboration with
forecasting and decision support services.
And finally, advances in data assimilation, computer modeling, and
atmospheric observations through high-tech polar orbiting satellites
and geostationary satellites have led to substantial improvements in
NOAA's model forecasts. For example, leading up to the ``Snowmageddon''
event of February 2010, NOAA was able to detect the storm threat seven-
plus days in advance and begin alerting the East Coast up to 5 days in
advance of the storm. This allowed states to implement contingency and
continuity of operations plans, airlines to rearrange flights, and the
retail industry to pre-stock their shelves. As a result, there was
minimal impact to national and local airline and highway
transportation. This long lead time was made possible in large part by
observations obtained by NOAA's polar-orbiting satellite and numerical
weather prediction models.
Polar-orbiting satellites are the backbone of all model forecasts
for 3 days and beyond; however, future innovation in our observations
and improvements in our forecasting are at risk. The launch of the next
generation of NOAA's polar-orbiting satellites, the Joint Polar
Satellite System (JPSS), has been further delayed by funding shortfalls
in Fiscal Year 2011. As a result, NOAA is faced with a nearly 100
percent chance of a data gap in the U.S. civilian polar orbit, on which
both civilian and military users rely, by late 2016 to early 2017 when
the current polar satellites reach the end of their life expectancy.
JPSS is a critical part of NOAA's future infrastructure needed to
continue our path of forecast improvement--and to maintain what we have
built over the last 30 years. NOAA thanks the Committee, and the Senate
as a whole, for their recognition of this crucial need and their
support in the Senate's Fiscal Year appropriations bill for NOAA.
Uninterrupted flow of data from NOAA satellites is required to
support two Department of Commerce Primary Mission Essential Functions
(PMEF),\1\ which have been approved by the National Continuity
Coordinator, thus making NOAA satellites not just NOAA priorities but
also national priorities. NOAA is investing now to ensure that the
Nation can continue to rely on these critical observations in the
future. These observations and the derived products and services allow
the Nation to prepare effectively for and deal with severe weather and
other environmental phenomena.
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\1\ PMEF DOC-2: Collect and provide the Nation with critical
intelligence data, imagery, and other essential information for
predictive environmental and atmospheric modeling systems and space-
based distress alert systems by operating NOAA-controlled satellites,
communications equipment, and associated systems.
PMEF DOC-3: Provide the Nation with environmental forecasts,
warnings, data, and expertise critical to public safety, disaster
preparedness, all-hazards response and recovery, the national
transportation system, safe navigation, and the protection of the
Nation's critical infrastructure and natural resources.
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Getting the Word Out
As the Federal Government's sole official voice for issuing
warnings during life-threatening weather events, and as an established,
reliable, and trusted source, NOAA provides the Nation's first line of
defense against severe weather. NOAA operates the Nation's
geostationary and polar orbiting satellites, a nationwide network of
Doppler weather radars and surface observing stations. Scientists
develop computational models that combine these observations with
equations describing the physics of our atmosphere and ocean, and our
forecasters interpret and deliver critical information. Alerts and
warnings for severe weather and other near term hazards (tornadoes,
hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, winter storms, most floods, chemical
spills, volcanic ash, tsunami, space weather, etc.,) are delivered
through multiple redundant mechanisms, including: NOAA Weather Radio,
which triggers the Emergency Alert System; NWSChat, which focuses on
real-time coordination with local core customers in the broadcast media
and emergency management; the Internet; and, through our private sector
partners, commercial television and radio, which communicate critical
information to much larger audiences and effectively inform those in
harm's way to take appropriate action.
Preparedness
Our prospects for achieving our vision of resilient communities lie
in our unique enterprise capabilities. The goal of disaster resilience
is to enhance the capacity of a community exposed to hazards to adapt,
by resisting or changing, in order to reach and maintain an acceptable
level of functioning and structure. The preparedness challenge remains
essentially the same across both short-term and long-term weather and
water events: public awareness, education, and plans of action to
mitigate impacts on the personal, community, and regional scales
provide the best protection against potential disasters. NOAA has long-
held and strongly established ties to the emergency management
community, through state, local, and tribal officials, which help
ensure appropriate action is taken to prepare communities for weather
and water events. NOAA and its partners, such as the National Sea Grant
network, use integrated research, training, and technical assistance to
enhance the ability of communities to prepare for, respond to, and
rebuild after disasters strike. For example, we are developing a
Coastal Resilience Index that provides a tangible way for communities
to identify gaps and examine how prepared they are for storms and storm
recovery, and provide guidance on how to increase resilience through
measures including strengthening infrastructure or adopting stricter
building codes.
The historic floods, which spanned from Montana across the Dakotas,
into northern and central plains and southern Mississippi Valley
earlier this year, are an excellent example of why we need to prepare
for catastrophic events. The NOAA spring flood outlook highlighted
those particular areas as having the likelihood of major flooding. Our
River Forecast Centers and local Weather Forecast Offices worked with
Federal, state and local emergency managers and planners to help
prepare for and plan to mitigate the impact of the flooding. Based on
our forecasts, communities took extensive actions to limit the impact
of the flooding, including massive levee reinforcements and eventual
evacuations to prevent loss of life. FEMA prepositioned relief assets,
and the USGS ensured their river gauges were operational--all of the
agencies worked together to help mitigate the potential impact.
Unfortunately, in spite of our best efforts, severe weather events
still cause loss of life and significant damage. More of this could be
mitigated with more timely, accurate and focused warnings. The impacts
and lives lost from the disasters mentioned above would have been far
worse without critical data input of observations from satellites and
in-situ observations, and the extensive work of NOAA and our Federal,
non-Federal, state, and local partners to improve the Nation's
preparedness for these events through education and outreach. However,
as evidenced by the tragic loss of life in a number of these events,
there is a long way to go to truly achieve a Weather-Ready Nation.
Achieving a Weather- and Water-Ready Nation
With the high death toll and impacts we've seen this year, we take
little solace in knowing that outcomes could have been worse without
the extensive work of NOAA and our Federal, non-Federal, state, and
local partners. There is much more that needs to be done to improve the
Nation's resilience for these events. Research, education, and outreach
are the essential ingredients to improving preparedness and via
improved forecast and warning accuracy and lead times. Realizing a
Weather-Ready Nation, where society is prepared for and responds to
weather dependent events, is vital.
NOAA has started a national dialog with the Nation's top experts in
broadcast meteorology, emergency management, and the weather industry
to examine what is happening with severe weather and what can be done
in the short-and long-term to improve the Nation's severe weather
forecasts and warnings, and community preparedness. Included in this
effort are social sciences, innovative technologies, and social media
to improve our effectiveness in reaching those in harm's way and
provoking appropriate response, whether to the urgency of a tornado or
tsunami warning, or to the longer-term likelihoods of flooding or
drought. For example, most NWS offices have established Facebook pages,
providing an additional medium for conducting outreach and education,
as well as highlighting information about ongoing or upcoming weather
events. Additionally, NOAA uses NWSChat to give private sector partners
an invaluable opportunity to interact with NWS experts and to refine
and enrich their communications to the public. Moreover, more private
companies are carrying weather warnings on wireless networks, providing
real-time alerts to your cell phone or e-mail.
Sustaining our commitment to existing services, while continuing to
innovate to improve our capacity to meet the Nation's weather and water
needs, requires targeted investments to shore up aging infrastructure,
improve scientific understanding, and implement enhanced services to
reduce risk to the Nation caused by weather and water. NOAA must
increase our capacity to collect and assimilate increasing amounts of
data to improve model performance, which is achieved through scientific
innovation and technological advancements. Future technology
improvements include more advanced polar and geostationary satellites,
more sophisticated radar coverage, observing systems, and improved
computing capabilities. These technology assets are crucial pieces of
our national infrastructure.
Additional, innovative projects, such as the Weather and Emergency
Manager Decision Support (WxEM) and the HFIP's Socio-Economic Research
Recommendations Projects are also integrating social science into NOAA
products and information to encourage more resilient behavior that
reduces loss of life and property.
Through the Weather and Emergency Manager Decision Support, NOAA is
exploring ways to make its information easier to find, easier to
understand, and easier to apply in operations by the Emergency
Management community. This will result in improved decisionmaking for
risk management of life and property. Further, the HFIP Socio-Economic
Research project is using social science to help improve tropical
cyclone risk communication, including the development of new or
reconfigured existing graphics (e.g., the hurricane forecast cone of
uncertainty) and visualization techniques, to better communicate
tropical cyclone and storm surge risk and promote appropriate public
response.
We know that NOAA forecasts, warnings, and community-based
preparedness programs are vital in enhancing the economy and saving
lives. It all starts with a commitment on improved forecasting and ends
with a Weather-Ready Nation in which businesses, governments, and
people are prepared to use those forecasts to mitigate impacts.
Summary
To achieve an increase in community resilience and reduce the
Nation's vulnerability to weather and water related extreme events, we
must continue to improve predictions. Again, our Nation's environmental
predictive capabilities are supported by four foundational pillars:
observations, computer models, research, and our people. By
strengthening the pillars--through continued innovation in improved
satellite and in-situ observations, computing capacity, coupled
atmosphere, ocean, land models, and necessary research and science
improvement--we can revolutionize the forecast process across the
entire spectrum from relatively small-scale, short range applications
to long range weather and climate predictions.
The dual goals of preparing for and mitigating natural hazards
require the continuous commitment and partnership of many individuals
and sectors--from Federal, state, tribal, and local to public, private,
and academic. The investments made by Congress and the Administration
in NOAA's weather prediction and warning capabilities directly save
lives in the United States during these weather disasters. NOAA remains
committed to leading U.S. efforts to save lives and property through
preparedness, detection, modeling, and forecasting efforts necessary
for improved decisionmaking. Although nothing can eliminate the
physical threat that severe weather and natural hazards pose, NOAA has
demonstrated success in better predicting them, reducing their impact,
and helping vulnerable communities become more resilient to their
devastating effects--and will work to continuously improve its natural
hazards products and services to the Nation.
Senator Begich. Thank you very much for your comments.
Next we'd like to have Todd Zinser, Inspector General, U.S.
Department of Commerce.
STATEMENT OF HON. TODD J. ZINSER, INSPECTOR GENERAL, U.S.
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Mr. Zinser. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, Ranking Member Snowe.
Thank you for the opportunity to testify today, and thank you
for your recognition of Mary's service. It's been a privilege
of mine to serve with her these past 4 years as Inspector
General.
My office has oversight responsibility for NOAA, including
NOAA's weather satellite programs. We recently issued an audit
report this past September on the Joint Polar Satellite System,
known as JPSS. My written testimony summarizes our findings and
recommendations, and this morning I would just offer three
observations based on our continuing oversight.
First, JPSS is a critically important program for the
Nation and its ability to observe weather and provide data for
forecast watches and warnings, but it is a program that must
overcome years of setbacks experienced by its predecessor
program called the National Polar-orbiting Operational
Environmental Satellite System, or NPOESS. NPOESS was an early
effort dating back to the mid-1990s to reduce duplication and
overlap in the polar environmental satellite programs of the
Department of Defense, NASA and NOAA. The effort did not
succeed, and, in February 2010, after many years of delays and
cost overruns, in February 2010 the administration restructured
the program. This involved decoupling Defense on the one hand
and NOAA and NASA on the other.
NOAA and NASA are now partners on JPSS and my sense is
that, despite a difficult transition over the past 21 months,
the program officials are continuing to work diligently and are
optimistic about continued progress of the program.
My second observation is that there are many challenges
ahead for JPSS, and those challenges must now be met against a
backdrop of seriously constrained budgets for perhaps the next
decade. We have placed these challenges into two groups. Number
one, the JPSS program must take steps to prevent a potential
near-term coverage gap from the current polar satellite called
NOAA-19, and a stop-gap satellite called NPOESS Preparatory
Project, or NPP that was successfully launched late last month
as part of a contingency plan. NPP was originally intended as a
test satellite but has been launched with the intent to use the
data it collects to provide continuity of weather observations.
While NPP was successfully launched by NASA and the
checkout period for the instruments is progressing well, it is
expected to take 18 months or longer before the NPP satellite
data is fully operational. That 18-month time-frame coincides
with the end of NOAA-19's design life in March 2013, leaving
very little room for contingencies and creating the potential
for a near-term coverage gap. The plan to use NPP as a
contingency created other challenges identified in our
September report.
The second major challenge for the JPSS program is to
mitigate a longer-term coverage gap that is expected to occur
between the end of design life for the NPP satellite and the
operational date for JPSS-1. NPP's projected end of design life
is November of 2016. The program plans to launch JPSS-1 in the
first quarter of Fiscal Year 2017. That date depends on full
funding for JPSS for Fiscal Year 2012 and beyond. There will
also be a checkout period for JPSS-1 instruments which could
extend from 6 to 18 months after launch. If an extended
checkout period is necessary for JPSS-1, the coverage gap for
polar satellite data could be as long as 21 months.
My third observation, then, Mr. Chairman, is that the
senior management at NOAA and the JPSS program must take steps
(a) to ensure that there is no additional slippage in the
schedule through close management of the program and (b)
minimize the potential impact of any coverage gap. Our recent
report makes two recommendations in that regard.
First, NOAA needs to finalize a program baseline which
includes costs, and scheduling requirements, and keep the
Department and Congress informed of the program's performance
against that baseline. In doing so, the JPSS program should
prioritize all requirements and contingencies in order to
maintain the current planned launch date.
Second, NOAA should coordinate across the agency to develop
contingencies for a coverage gap. NOAA needs to ensure, for
example, that the scientists who work for the National Weather
Service are working together with the scientists from the
satellite service to develop options for using data from all of
its sources to compensate for some of the possible loss of
polar satellite data. Our concern is that, at this point, there
is no coordinated approach to the problem across NOAA's lines
of businesses--and that there should be.
Mr. Chairman, this concludes my statement. I'd be happy to
respond to any questions.
[The prepared statement of Mr. Zinser follows:]
Prepared Statement of Hon. Todd J. Zinser, Inspector General,
U.S. Department of Commerce
Chairman Begich, Ranking Member Snowe, and Members of the
Subcommittee:
I appreciate the opportunity to testify today about the challenges
NOAA faces in its efforts to develop and launch its new environmental
satellites while minimizing expected data gaps.
For the past 50 years, NOAA, in partnership with the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), has been responsible for
developing and operating polar and geostationary environmental
satellite systems. NOAA's environmental satellite operations and
weather forecasting are designated primary mission-essential functions
of the Department of Commerce because they directly support government
functions the President has deemed necessary to lead and sustain the
Nation during a catastrophe. But NOAA's current constellation of polar
and geostationary operational environmental satellites is aging, and
its capabilities will degrade over time. As a result, the risk
increases for gaps in critical satellite data.
Between 1995 and early 2010, NOAA partnered with the Department of
Defense (DOD) and NASA in the development of the National Polar-
orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS), which was
at that time the planned replacement system for NOAA's Polar
Operational Environmental Satellite System and DOD's Defense
Meteorological Satellite Program. The original NPOESS program was to
develop six satellites, with first launch planned for 2009 and an
estimated life-cycle cost of $6.5 billion through 2018. By late 2009,
however, the program had reduced its scope to four satellites; the
first launch was delayed until 2014, while its life-cycle cost estimate
had escalated to $14 billion through 2026.
In February 2010, the White House's Office of Science and
Technology Policy announced its decision to have NOAA, in partnership
with NASA, establish the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) program as
part of a NPOESS restructuring due to its long history of cost overruns
and schedule delays. At that time, the JPSS program planned to launch
two satellites--at an estimated cost of $11.9 billion--to collect data
for short-and long-term weather and climate forecasting through 2026.
In order to be included in the Fiscal Year President's budget request,
NOAA had to develop the JPSS budget estimate so quickly that--while
NOAA had existing NPOESS requirements in place--it did not have time to
formally approve high-level requirements for JPSS. In September 2011,
NOAA notified Congress that it had recently completed its high-level
JPSS requirements, was refining its cost estimate, and planned to
incorporate updated baselines (cost, schedule, and performance) in the
upcoming Fiscal Year budget submission.
The Senate Committee on Appropriations has proposed funding JPSS
with $921 million in Fiscal Year while the House of Representatives
appropriations bill recommends $901 million. Both bills fall short of
the President's $1.07 billion budget request for JPSS, which the
program maintains is necessary to ensure the first JPSS satellite's
(JPSS-1's) launch date in the first quarter of 2017.
Given its history, this critical program requires strong program
management and close oversight to minimize further delays and prevent
interruptions in satellite coverage. Our work has identified these
near-term priorities for NOAA as it manages JPSS:
complete the data checkout for the NPOESS Preparatory
Project (NPP) and
strengthen program management and systems engineering to
mitigate JPSS coverage gaps.
Preventing Near-Term Coverage Gaps: from NOAA-19 to NPP
JPSS-1 will be preceded in orbit by the NPP satellite, originally a
NASA-led risk reduction effort to test NPOESS' new instruments in
flight. NOAA will now use NPP to maintain continuity of climate and
weather forecast data between NOAA's current polar-orbiting operational
environmental satellite (NOAA-19) and JPSS-1. Despite recent efforts by
NASA's NPP team (including contractors) to meet the satellite's
scheduled launch date, late development of the ground system has
compressed the mission schedule--and delayed the schedule for data
product availability.
Since we issued our September 30, 2011, report on JPSS, NASA
successfully launched NPP on October 28 and reports that satellite
checkout activities, such as instrument activation, are proceeding
according to schedule. Once checkout completes, NASA will turn the
satellite over to the JPSS program to calibrate the instruments and
validate the scientific quality of data products; ultimately, the JPSS
program will hand over satellite operations to NOAA.
After the launch, NOAA originally planned to make NPP operationally
ready in 18 months, which coincides with the end of the design life of
NOAA-19 (approximately March 2013). This plan left little room for
contingencies. Both NOAA and our office have identified a number of
risks that, if not properly mitigated, could cause further delays in
NPP operational readiness and degradation of NOAA's weather and climate
forecasting capability:
Potential coverage gap. According to the ground system's
contractor, Raytheon, the ground system will not be able to
support the validation of a significant number of data records
until after a system upgrade, planned for March 2012. In
addition, NOAA has not finalized coordination between the NPP/
JPSS program and NOAA's Center for Satellite Applications and
Research (STAR), which is critical to transferring satellite
observation into operations. Consequently, NOAA has extended
its projection for readiness from 18 to 24 months after launch,
which could lead to a gap in operational data between NOAA19
and NPP if NOAA-19 stops functioning properly at the end of its
design life.
Insufficient number of ground station locations. Unlike
NOAA's existing operational satellite systems, NPP has only a
single mission management center for controlling the satellite,
and NPP's ground station has the system's only science data
downlink (the means to transmit a signal from the satellite to
the ground station). NOAA and JPSS program officials have
commissioned studies to develop an alternate mission management
center and hope to have one ready well in advance of the JPSS-1
launch. Program officials indicated that the ground station has
redundancy in terms of antennas and equipment. However, while
there is redundancy, the use of a single ground station in a
single geographic location is not consistent with NOAA's
existing polar and geostationary operational environmental
satellite systems, which use more than one location.
Postlaunch ground system development challenges. NASA
conducted two major ground system/NPP satellite compatibility
tests in 2011; the first test had been delayed when ground
system software builds took longer than expected to produce.
Both tests experienced further delays and compressed the
remaining work schedule for the NPP launch. NASA has also
postponed analysis of some test results and requirements
verification. Further, in response to an independent review
team's recommendations, the project completed a stress test in
late September and early October to evaluate NPP's operational
readiness--any system fixes required to mitigate identified
concerns would add to the postlaunch data production workload.
In order to reduce the risk of a data gap between NOAA-19 and NPP,
NOAA management needs to provide sufficient oversight to enable
communication and coordination between the JPSS program and STAR.
Further, it must balance instrument calibration and data validation
activities (needed to produce operational data) with other ground
system development tasks. NOAA should also determine the feasibility of
establishing an alternate mission management center and an additional
science data downlink for NPP as soon as possible.
Mitigating Longer-Term Coverage Gaps: from NPP to JPSS-1
NOAA expects a gap in weather and climate observations between
NPP's end of design life and the operational date of JPSS-l. NPP's
projected end of design life is November 2016, NOAA plans to launch
JPSS-1 in the first quarter of 2017,\1\ and there is a minimum 6-month
checkout period before key data products from JPSS-1 will become
operational. We project that, due to continued budget uncertainty and
probable Fiscal Year funding somewhat below the President's budget
request, the JPSS-1 launch date will be no earlier than February 2017.
Based on a February 2017 launch, the gap would last at least 9 months
(3 months from November to February, plus the additional 6 months for
checkout). Should checkout take 18 months (as NOAA predicts NPP's
will), the gap would extend a total of 21 months (see figure 1). NOAA's
studies have found that its weather forecasting at 5, 4, and 3 days
before an event could be significantly degraded during the coverage gap
period.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ NOAA projected a JPSS-1 launch in the first quarter of Fiscal
Year 2017, pending (1) the program receiving the full President's
budget request for Fiscal Year 2012 ($1.07 billion) and beyond and (2)
no Fiscal Year 2012 continuing resolution beyond the first quarter of
Fiscal Year 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
JPSS-1 will require a checkout period longer than 6 months to
achieve full operational capability (versus an interim capability to
produce key data products). Full checkout could be prolonged because
JPSS-1 instruments will have manufacturing changes from the models
flown on NPP--and, in all probability, NPP will no longer be
operational when JPSS-1 is on-orbit, thus leaving the JPSS-1 mission
without a direct, and more efficient, means for comparison.
Source: OIG analysis of NOAA data, as of August 22, 2011.
We have identified the following areas that require senior
management attention to help ensure JPSS-1 operational readiness and
minimize the potential impact of the coverage gap:
Prioritize all JPSS requirements,\2\ develop reliable cost
estimates to support future funding requests, and
systematically communicate planned actions and progress with
decisionmakers. NOAA is currently developing a revised life-
cycle cost estimate. Additionally, NOAA tasked NASA with
developing contingencies that prioritize some of the most
important requirements and maintain a launch readiness date no
later than February 2017. We believe the JPSS program should
formally prioritize all of its requirements, not just the
subset in this contingency exercise, so that it can efficiently
adjust the program's performance capabilities or launch dates,
if needed, in response to year-to-year funding variances.
Further, the program should develop a plan to accommodate
requirements that may have to be removed or relaxed when annual
funding falls short of the program's budget but could be
recouped in future appropriations. Finally, due to the
importance and complexity of the JPSS program, NOAA must
establish a program baseline (cost, schedule, and requirements)
as soon as possible--and keep the Department and Congress
informed of its planned actions and progress against this
baseline to facilitate decisionmaking.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\2\ High-level requirements include the number of spacecraft, the
instruments needed, the observational data to be provided, the
timeliness of data delivery, and data distribution methods, among
others.
Coordinate NOAA response, in case NPP does not live through
its 5-year design life. The NPP spacecraft was designed to last
5 years and carries enough fuel to last 7 years. However, most
of its instruments were managed and developed under the NPOESS
contract, which received limited government oversight and had a
history of technical issues. Additionally, under the NPOESS
contract, NASA lacked technical oversight during the instrument
development, manufacturing, and testing phases, creating
uncertainty about the instruments' ability to operate for the
length of the spacecraft's design life. For these reasons,
NASA's revised criteria for NPP mission success called for only
3 years of operability. Although NOAA's current analysis
assumes that NPP will have a 5-year operational life, NOAA
understands that a residual risk of a shorter life expectancy
remains due to the lack of oversight during the development of
most of NPP's instruments. In order to sufficiently prepare for
an expected gap in polar satellite data from the afternoon
orbit, NOAA should coordinate efforts from across its line
offices to minimize the degradation of weather and climate
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
forecasting during gaps in coverage.
In conclusion, Mr. Chairman, we have provided (and will continue to
provide) our independent assessment of the JPSS program. We look
forward to NOAA's action plan to address recommendations in our
September 30 audit report. The hope is that, when closing the looming
satellite coverage gaps, NOAA finds innovative solutions--and can
convey them, in a timely fashion, to Congress and other stakeholders.
This concludes my prepared statement, and I will be pleased to respond
to any questions you or other Subcommittee members may have.
Senator Begich. Thank you very much.
Next we have David Trimble, Director, Natural Resources and
Environment, Government Accountability Office.
STATEMENT OF DAVID C. TRIMBLE, DIRECTOR,
NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT,
U.S. GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY OFFICE
Mr. Trimble. Chairman Begich, Ranking Member Snowe, I'm
pleased to be here today to discuss Federal efforts to provide
climate data and services to decisionmakers. Recent assessments
of the potential impacts of climate change in the United States
have found, among other things, that climate-related changes
such as rising temperature and sea level will combine with
pollution, population growth, urbanization, and other social,
economic and environmental stresses to create larger impacts
than from any one of these factors alone.
Policymakers are increasingly viewing adaptation, defined
as adjustments to natural human systems in response to actual
or expected climate change, as a risk management strategy to
protect vulnerable sectors and communities that might be
affected by changes in the climate. It may be costly to raise
river or coastal dikes to protect communities and resources
from sea level rise, build higher bridges or improve storm
water systems, but there is a growing recognition that the cost
of inaction could be greater.
Over the years, GAO has reported on many climate change
issues, including recent reports on adaptation and Federal
funding for climate change programs and activities. Let me
highlight four points from these reports.
First, climate change adaptation has begun to receive more
attention and resources because the greenhouse gases already in
the atmosphere are expected to continue altering the climate
system into the future regardless of efforts to control
emissions. Further, there is a growing recognition that past
practices for making decisions may no longer be reliable.
According to the National Research Council, many decision rules
for such things as building bridges or establishing zoning
rules assume a continuation of past climate conditions with
similar patterns or variation and the same probability of
extreme events. According to the NRC, that assumption,
fundamental to the way people and organizations make their
choices, is no longer valid.
Second, Federal, state and local authorities on the front
line of early adaptation efforts face challenges obtaining
local or site-specific climate data such as projected
temperature and precipitation changes, and translating that
data into information they need to make decisions. The lack of
such data makes it hard for these officials to understand or
quantify the potential impacts of climate change, and difficult
to justify the cost of adaptation efforts since projections of
future benefits are less certain than current costs.
Third, according to the experts we have surveyed, Federal
actions to provide and interpret site-specific information
could help address some of these challenges. Our 2009 report on
climate change adaptation discusses several potential actions
that Federal, state and local officials identified as useful to
inform adaptation decisionmaking. These included state and
local climate change impact and vulnerability assessments, and
the development of processes and tools to access, interpret,
and apply climate information.
In that report, we also obtained information regarding the
creation of a climate service, a Federal service to consolidate
and deliver climate information to decisionmakers to inform
their adaptation efforts. While we have not made a
recommendation regarding the creation of a climate service
within NOAA or any other agency or interagency body, our 2009
report discussed a range of potential strengths and limitations
of such a service.
Fourth, adaptation will require making policy and
management decisions that cut across traditional sectors,
issues and jurisdictional boundaries. Many Federal entities,
executive offices and organizations manage programs and
activities related to climate change. However, getting these
entities to work toward a common goal is complicated. In 2009,
we recommended the development of a strategic plan to guide the
nation's efforts to adapt to a changing climate, including the
identification of mechanisms to increase the capacity of
Federal, state and local agencies to incorporate information
about current and potential climate change impacts into
government decisionmaking.
The recent Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force
is a positive step, but coordination on climate change issues
across the government is still a challenge. Our May 2011 report
on climate change funding found that Federal officials do not
have a shared understanding of strategic government-wide
priorities, including the roles and responsibilities of the key
Federal entities. In a period of declining budgets, effective
collaboration across all Federal agencies is critical, now more
than ever.
That concludes my statement. I will, of course, be happy to
answer any questions.
[The prepared statement of Mr. Trimble follows:]
Prepared Statement of David C. Trimble, Director, Natural Resources and
Environment, U.S. Government Accountability Office
Chairman Begich, Ranking Member Snowe, and Members of the
Subcommittee:
I am pleased to be here today to discuss Federal efforts to provide
climate data and services to decision makers. Climate change is a
complex, crosscutting issue that poses risks to many existing
environmental and economic systems, including agriculture,
infrastructure, ecosystems, and human health. A 2009 assessment by the
United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) found that
climate-related changes--such as rising temperature and sea level--will
combine with pollution; population growth; urbanization; and other
social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger impacts
than from any of these factors alone.\1\ According to the National
Academies, USGCRP, and others, greenhouse gases already in the
atmosphere will continue altering the climate system into the future,
regardless of emissions control efforts. Therefore, adaptation--defined
as adjustments to natural or human systems in response to actual or
expected climate change--is an important part of the response to
climate change.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ USGCRP coordinates and integrates Federal research on changes
in the global environment--including climate change--and their
implications for society.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Many Federal entities manage climate change programs and
activities. According to the Office of Management and Budget's June
2010 Federal Climate Change Expenditures Report to Congress, 9 of the
15 cabinet-level departments, along with 7 other Federal agencies,
received funding for climate change activities in Fiscal Year 2010.\2\
In addition, entities within the Executive Office of the President,
such as the Office of Science and Technology Policy, and Federal
interagency coordinating bodies, like USGCRP, work together to ensure
Federal climate change activities are guided by the latest climate
science. A September 2010 report by the National Academy of Public
Administration, which was prepared for the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Congress, referred to this set of
Federal activities as the Federal ``climate change enterprise.'' \3\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\2\ Office of Management and Budget, Federal Climate Change
Expenditures Report to Congress (June 2010). See http://
www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/assets/legislative_reports/
FY2011_Climate_Change.pdf.
\3\ Panel of the National Academy of Public Administration,
Building Strong for Tomorrow: NOAA Climate Service, a report prepared
for Congress, the Department of Commerce, and NOAA (Sept. 13, 2010).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Federal climate programs are shifting their focus to adaptation and
climate services. Our October 2009 report on climate change adaptation
found no coordinated national approach to adaptation, but our May 2011
report on climate change funding cited indications that Federal
agencies were beginning to respond to climate change more
systematically.\4\ About the same time as the issuance of our October
2009 report, Executive Order 13514 on Federal Leadership in
Environmental, Energy, and Economic Performance called for Federal
agencies to participate actively in the Interagency Climate Change
Adaptation Task Force.\5\ The task force, which began meeting in Spring
2009, is co-chaired by the President's Council on Environmental
Quality, NOAA, and the Office of Science and Technology Policy and
includes representatives from more than 20 Federal agencies and
Executive Branch offices. The task force was formed to develop Federal
recommendations for adapting to climate change impacts both
domestically and internationally and to recommend key components to
include in a national strategy. In addition, USGCRP recently launched a
national climate assessment designed to engage stakeholders in a
process that builds on science, data, and information to help decision
making. Individual agencies are also beginning to consider adaptation
actions. For example, in May 2009, the Chief of Naval Operations
created Task Force Climate Change to address the naval implications of
a changing Arctic and global environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\4\ GAO. Climate Change Adaptation: Strategic Federal Planning
Could Help Government Officials Make More Informed Decisions, GAO-10-
113, (Washington, D.C.: Oct. 7, 2009), and Climate Change: Improvements
Needed to Clarify National Priorities and Better Align Them with
Federal Funding Decisions, GAO-11-317, (Washington, D.C.: May 20,
2011).
\5\ For more information about the Interagency Climate Change
Adaptation Task Force, see http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/
eop/ceq/initiatives/adaptation.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
My testimony today addresses: (1) the data challenges that federal,
state, and local officials face in their efforts to adapt to a changing
climate, (2) the actions Federal agencies could take to help address
these challenges, and (3) Federal climate change strategic planning
efforts. The information in this testimony is based on prior work,
largely on our recent reports on climate change adaptation and Federal
climate change funding.\6\ Our work was based on, among other things,
analysis of studies; site visits to areas pursuing adaptation efforts;
responses to a web-based questionnaire sent to federal, state, and
local officials knowledgeable about adaptation; and interviews with
such officials. A detailed description of our scope and methodology is
available in each issued product. All of the work on which this
statement is based was performed in accordance with generally accepted
government auditing standards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\6\ GAO-10-113 and GAO-11-317.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
A Lack of Site-Specific Data, Such as Local Projections of Expected
Changes, Can Challenge the Ability of Officials to Manage the
Effects of Climate Change
As we reported in October 2009, insufficient site-specific data,
such as local projections of expected changes, make it hard for
federal, state, and local officials to predict the impacts of climate
change, and thus hard for these officials to justify the current costs
of adaptation efforts for potentially less certain future benefits.\7\
Based on the responses by a diverse array of federal, state, and local
officials knowledgeable about adaptation to a web-based questionnaire
designed for that report, related challenges generally fit into two
main categories: (1) translating climate data--such as projected
temperature and precipitation changes--into information that officials
need to make decisions and (2) difficulty in justifying the current
costs of adaptation with limited information about future benefits.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\7\ GAO-10-113.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The process of providing useful information to officials making
decisions about adaptation can be summarized by the following:
First, data from global-scale models must be ``downscaled''
to provide climate information at a geographic scale relevant
to decision makers. About 74 percent (133 of 179) of the
officials who responded to our questionnaire rated
``availability of climate information at relevant scale (i.e.,
downscaled regional and local information)'' as very or
extremely challenging.
Second, the downscaled climate information must be
translated into impacts at the local level, such as increased
stream flow. Some respondents and officials interviewed for our
October 2009 report said that it is challenging to link
predicted temperature and precipitation changes to specific
impacts. For example, one Federal official said that ``we often
lack fundamental information on how ecological systems/species
respond to non-climate change related anthropogenic stresses,
let alone how they will respond to climate change.''
Third, local impacts must be translated into costs and
benefits, since this information is required for many decision
making processes. Almost 70 percent (126 of 180) of the
respondents to our questionnaire rated ``understanding the
costs and benefits of adaptation efforts'' as very or extremely
challenging.\8\ As noted by one local government respondent, it
is important to understand the costs and benefits of adaptation
efforts so they can be evaluated relative to other priorities.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\8\ The number of respondents varies because some officials did not
respond to certain questions.
Fourth, decision makers need baseline monitoring data to
evaluate adaptation actions over time. Nearly 62 percent (113
of 181) of the respondents to our questionnaire rated the
``lack of baseline monitoring data to enable evaluation of
adaptation actions (i.e., inability to detect change)'' as very
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
or extremely challenging.
These challenges make it difficult for officials to justify the
current costs of adaptation efforts for potentially less certain future
benefits. A 2009 report by the National Research Council (NRC)
discusses how officials are struggling to make decisions based on
future climate scenarios instead of past climate conditions.\9\
According to the report, requested by the Environmental Protection
Agency and NOAA, usual practices and decision rules (e.g., for building
bridges, implementing zoning rules, using private motor vehicles)
assume a stationary climate--a continuation of past climate conditions,
including similar patterns of variation and the same probabilities of
extreme events. According to the NRC report, that assumption, which is
fundamental to the ways people and organizations make their choices, is
no longer valid.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\9\ National Research Council of the National Academies, Panel on
Strategies and Methods for Climate-Related Decision Support, Committee
on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Informing Decisions in a
Changing Climate (Washington, D.C., 2009).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Federal Actions to Provide and Interpret Site-Specific Information
Would Help Officials Understand the Impacts of Climate Change
and Available Adaptation Strategies
Federal actions to provide and interpret site-specific information
would help address challenges associated with adaptation efforts, based
on our analysis of responses to the web-based questionnaire and other
materials analyzed for our October 2009 report.\10\ The report
discussed several potential Federal actions that federal, state, and
local officials identified as useful to inform adaptation decision
making. These included state and local climate change impact and
vulnerability assessments and the development of processes and tools to
access, interpret, and apply climate information. In that report, we
also obtained information regarding the creation of a climate service--
a Federal service to consolidate and deliver climate information to
decision makers to inform adaptation efforts.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\10\ GAO-10-113.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
About 61 percent (107 of 176) of the federal, state, and local
officials who responded to the web-based questionnaire developed for
our October 2009 adaptation report rated the ``creation of a Federal
service to consolidate and deliver climate information to decision
makers to inform adaptation efforts'' as very or extremely useful.\11\
Respondents offered a range of potential strengths and weaknesses for
such a service. Several said that a climate service would help
consolidate information and provide a single-information resource for
local officials, and others said that it would be an improvement over
the current ad hoc system. A climate service would avoid duplication
and establish an agreed set of climate information with uniform
methodologies, benchmarks, and metrics for decision making, according
to some officials. According to one Federal official, consolidating
scientific, modeling, and analytical expertise and capacity could
increase efficiency. Similarly, some officials noted that with such
consolidation of information, individual agencies, states, and local
governments would not have to spend money obtaining climate data for
their adaptation efforts. Others said that it would be advantageous to
work from one source of information instead of different sources of
varying quality. Some officials said that a climate service would
demonstrate a Federal commitment to adaptation and provide a credible
voice and guidance to decision makers. In an announcement on February
8, 2010, the Department of Commerce proposed establishing a NOAA
climate service. Though not yet established, information is available
on the NOAA climate service website, including draft vision and
strategic framework documents.\12\ According to NOAA documents, such a
climate service would provide a single, reliable, and authoritative
source for climate data, information, and decision support services to
help individuals, businesses, communities, and governments make smart
choices in anticipation of a climate changed future.\13\ A September
2010 report by the National Academy of Public Administration discusses
the factors needed for a NOAA climate service to succeed--such as the
designation of a lead Federal agency to be the day-to-day integrator of
the overall Federal effort regarding climate science and services--and
makes recommendations on how to achieve those factors.\14\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\11\ GAO-10-113.
\12\ For more information about the NOAA Climate Service, see
http://www.noaa.gov/climate.html. A range of climate information is
presented at www.climate.gov, NOAA's Climate Services Portal.
\13\ The Department of Defense and Full Year Continuing
Appropriations Act, 2011 prohibited any funds appropriated in the act
to be used to implement, establish, or create a NOAA Climate Service as
NOAA had previously described it during Fiscal Year 2011.
\14\ Panel of the National Academy of Public Administration,
Building Strong for Tomorrow: NOAA Climate Service, a report prepared
for Congress, the Department of Commerce, and NOAA (Sept. 13, 2010).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other respondents to our questionnaire, however, were less
enthusiastic about the creation of a climate service. Some voiced
skepticism about whether it was feasible to consolidate climate
information, and others said that such a system would be too rigid and
may get bogged down in lengthy review processes. Furthermore, certain
officials stated that building such capacity may not be the most
effective place to focus Federal efforts because the information needs
of decision makers vary so much by jurisdiction. Several officials
noted that climate change is an issue that requires a multidisciplinary
response, and a single Federal service may not be able to supply all of
the necessary expertise. For example, one Federal official stated that
the information needs of Bureau of Reclamation water managers are quite
different from the needs of Bureau of Land Management rangeland
managers, which are different from the needs of all other resource
management agencies and programs. The official stated that it seems
highly unlikely that a single Federal service could effectively
identify and address the diverse needs of multiple agencies. Several
respondents also said that having one preeminent source for climate
change information and modeling could stifle contrary ideas and
alternative viewpoints. Moreover, several officials who responded to
our questionnaire were concerned that a climate service could divert
attention and resources from current adaptation efforts by reinventing
duplicative processes without making use of existing structures. The
2009 NRC report on informing decisions in a changing climate recommends
that the Federal government's adaptation efforts should be undertaken
through a new integrated interagency initiative with both service and
research elements but that such an initiative should not be centralized
in a single agency.\15\ Doing so, according to this report, would
disrupt existing relationships between agencies and their
constituencies and formalize a separation between the emerging science
of climate response and fundamental research on climate and the
associated biological, social, and economic phenomena. Furthermore, the
report states that a climate service located in a single agency and
modeled on the weather service would by itself be less than fully
effective for meeting the national needs for climate-related decision
support. The NRC report also notes that such a climate service would
not be user-driven and so would likely fall short in providing needed
information, identifying and meeting critical decision support research
needs, and adapting adequately to changing information needs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\15\ USGCRP's September 30, 2011 Draft Strategic Plan reflects
elements of these NRC recommendations.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
We have not made recommendations regarding the creation of a
climate service within NOAA or any other agency or interagency body,
although the provision of climate data and services will be an
important consideration in future governmentwide strategic planning
efforts, particularly in an era of declining budgets.
Federal Climate Change Strategic Planning Efforts Could Be Improved
Federal strategic planning efforts could be improved for many
aspects of the climate change enterprise. Our October 2009 report on
climate change adaptation concluded that, to be effective, related
Federal efforts must be coordinated and directed toward a common
goal.\16\ This report recommended the development of a strategic plan
to guide the Nation's efforts to adapt to a changing climate, including
the identification of mechanisms to increase the capacity of federal,
state, and local agencies to incorporate information about current and
potential climate change impacts into government decision making. Some
actions have subsequently been taken to improve Federal adaptation
efforts, but our May 2011 report on climate change funding found that
Federal officials do not have a shared understanding of strategic
governmentwide priorities.\17\ This report recommended, among other
things, the clear establishment of Federal strategic climate change
priorities, including the roles and responsibilities of the key Federal
entities, taking into consideration the full range of activities within
the Federal climate change enterprise. In other reports, we also noted
the need for improved coordination of climate-related activities. For
example, our April 2010 report on environmental satellites concluded
that gaps in satellite coverage, which could occur as soon as 2015, are
expected to affect the continuity of important climate and space
weather measurements.\18\ In that report, we stated that, despite
repeated calls for interagency strategies for the long-term provision
of environmental data from satellites (both for climate and space
weather purposes), our Nation still lacks such plans.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\16\ GAO-10-113.
\17\ GAO-11-317.
\18\ GAO. Environmental Satellites: Strategy Needed to Sustain
Critical Climate and Space Weather Measurements, GAO-10-456,
(Washington, D.C.: Apr. 27, 2010). For another example of the need for
improved strategic planning, see Climate Change: A Coordinated Strategy
Could Focus Federal Geoengineering Research and Inform Governance
Efforts, GAO-10-903, (Washington, D.C.: Sept. 23, 2010).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Of particular importance in adaptation are planning decisions
involving physical infrastructure projects, which require large capital
investments and which, by virtue of their anticipated lifespan, will
have to be resilient to changes in climate for many decades. The long
lead time and long life of large infrastructure investments require
such decisions to be made well before climate change effects are
discernible. Our ongoing work for the Senate Committee on Environment
and Public Works Subcommittee on Oversight and Subcommittee on
Transportation and Infrastructure will explore this issue by reviewing
the extent to which federal, state, and local authorities consider the
potential effects of climate change when making infrastructure
investment decisions.
Chairman Begich, Ranking Member Snowe, and Members of the
Subcommittee, this concludes my prepared statement. I would be happy to
respond to any questions that you or other Members of the Subcommittee
may have.
Why GAO Did This Study
Climate change is a complex, crosscutting issue that poses risks to
many existing environmental and economic systems, including
agriculture, infrastructure, ecosystems, and human health. A 2009
assessment by the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)
found that climate-related changes---such as rising temperature and sea
level---will combine with pollution, population growth, urbanization,
and other social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger
impacts than from any of these factors alone.
According to the National Academies, USGCRP, and others, greenhouse
gases already in the atmosphere will continue altering the climate
system into the future, regardless of emissions control efforts.
Therefore, adaptation---defined as adjustments to natural or human
systems in response to actual or expected climate change---is an
important part of the response to climate change.
This testimony addresses (1) the data challenges that Federal,
state, and local officials face in their efforts to adapt to a changing
climate, (2) the actions Federal agencies could take to help address
these challenges, and (3) Federal climate change strategic planning
efforts. The information in this testimony is based on prior work,
largely on GAO's recent reports on climate change adaptation (GAO-10-
113) and Federal climate change funding (GAO-11-317). These reports are
based on, among other things, analysis of studies, site visits to areas
pursuing adaptation efforts, and responses to a web-based questionnaire
sent to Federal, state, and local officials.
What GAO Found
As GAO reported in October 2009, challenges from insufficient site-
specific data--such as local projections--make it hard for Federal,
state, and local officials to predict the impacts of climate change,
and thus hard to justify the current costs of adaptation efforts for
potentially less certain future benefits. Based on responses from a
diverse array of Federal, state, and local officials knowledgeable
about adaptation, related challenges generally fit into two main
categories: (1) translating climate data--such as projected temperature
and precipitation changes--into information that officials need to make
decisions and (2) the difficulty in justifying the current costs of
adaptation with limited information about future benefits.
Federal actions to provide and interpret site-specific information
would help address data challenges associated with adaptation efforts,
based on responses to GAO's web-based questionnaire sent to Federal,
state, and local officials and other materials analyzed for its October
2009 report. In addition to several potential Federal actions
identified as useful by respondents to GAO's questionnaire, including
the development of state and local climate change vulnerability
assessments, GAO's 2009 report also contained information about the
creation of a Federal climate service. Specifically, about 61 percent
(107 of 176) of respondents rated the ``creation of a Federal service
to consolidate and deliver climate information to decisionmakers to
inform adaptation efforts'' as very or extremely useful. Respondents
offered a range of potential strengths and weaknesses for such a
service. For example, several respondents stated that a climate service
would help consolidate information and provide a single information
resource for local officials. However, some respondents to GAO's
questionnaire voiced skepticism about whether it was feasible to
consolidate climate information, and others stated that such a service
would be too rigid and may get bogged down in lengthy review processes.
GAO has not made recommendations regarding the creation of a climate
service within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or
any other agency or interagency body.
Federal strategic planning efforts could be improved for many
aspects of the climate change enterprise. For example, GAO's October
2009 report on climate change adaptation concluded that, to be
effective, related Federal efforts must be coordinated and directed
toward a common goal. This report recommended the development of a
strategic plan to guide the Nation's efforts to adapt to a changing
climate, including the identification of mechanisms to increase the
capacity of Federal, state, and local agencies to incorporate
information about current and potential climate change impacts into
government decisionmaking. Some actions have subsequently been taken to
improve Federal adaptation efforts, but GAO's May 2011 report on
climate change funding found that Federal officials do not have a
shared understanding of strategic governmentwide priorities.
[For an online version of this testimony, go to http://
www.gao.gov/products/GAO-12-238T].
Senator Begich. Thank you very much.
The next person is Admiral Thomas, Director of Response
Policy, United States Coast Guard.
STATEMENT OF REAR ADMIRAL CARI B. THOMAS, DIRECTOR OF RESPONSE
POLICY, UNITED STATES COAST GUARD
Admiral Thomas. Good morning, Chairman Begich, Ranking
Member Snowe, members of the Committee. I'm pleased to appear
before you today to discuss the United States Coast Guard's use
of environmental products, satellite distress information
provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
in support of Coast Guard operations.
The Coast Guard has enjoyed a partnership with NOAA for
more than 100 years. This partnership includes providing
situational awareness to both professional mariners and
recreational boaters on impending weather and dangerous
conditions, as well as NOAA's active participation on the
National Search and Rescue Committee, of which I had the honor
to chair.
In more than 27 years of conducting Coast Guard operations,
I have used any number of NOAA products to help make critical
operational decisions. Water temperature, wind and current
data, and distress alerting information all assist both the art
and the science of saving lives at sea.
Specifically, I'd like to share with you today two
situations that demonstrate the critical role that NOAA plays
in supporting Coast Guard daily operations.
In the Gulf of Alaska, five people were forced to abandon
their fishing vessel into 38-degree water. Tied together and
adrift in some of the most dangerous waters in the world, it
was only the SARSAT distress beacon, activated by the crew and
received by NOAA's weather satellite, that alerted the Coast
Guard that they were in distress. That distress notification
was transmitted via the NOAA Mission Control Center in
Suitland, Maryland, directly to the Coast Guard Rescue
Coordination Center in Juneau, Alaska.
In addition, the NOAA weather satellite provided on-scene
weather information that crews from three helicopters and one
C130 rescue aircraft used to prepare for the rescue mission. At
the Juneau Rescue Coordination Center, search and rescue
specialists helped develop the comprehensive search plans to
locate the source of the distress alert. Our search planning
tool uses critical weather, tide, and ocean current information
provided by NOAA.
In seconds, this program analyzed the weather and
environmental data, along with other critical information, to
develop the most effective search plan, allowing for the
quickest rescue possible and ultimately minimized risk to our
search crews and the mariners in distress. Though only three of
the five crew members were saved that day, the three survivors
owe their lives in part to NOAA's operation and management of
the U.S. SARSAT program and environmental information that
weather and climate services provide to the Coast Guard and
other partners.
As dramatic as it sounds, it is this type of case that the
men and women of the Coast Guard face daily. Last August, and
right here along the East Coast, NOAA's environmental data was
used in our own mission planning, port readiness, citizen
preparedness and infrastructure protection in response to
Hurricane Irene. NOAA's forecasting assisted the Coast Guard's
advance planning and enabled commercial and recreational
vessels alike to seek safety, whether by making preparations to
prepare ships in port or get their ships under way to evade the
storm at sea.
Coast Guard captains in the port were able to make sound
decisions to limit the amount of time that ports were closed
during and after the storm. Minimizing the time a U.S. port is
closed is critical, especially when taking into account the
economic and security impacts of port closures. These critical
decisions on port closures during Hurricane Irene by the Coast
Guard were based in part on the information received by NOAA's
environmental data.
Our own rescue assets, Coast Guard cutters, small boats,
aircraft, and most importantly our members and families, all
use NOAA's environmental information to determine the safest
locations to avoid the storm, and also minimize the time for
Coast Guard units to respond to any distress caused by the
storm. The fact that so little damage was sustained in these
port areas is a reflection on the amount of preparation
performed by the Coast Guard, FEMA, and our other port
partners, all leveraging NOAA's environmental data.
These are but two examples of the many situations in which
NOAA's environmental data provides invaluable support to the
Coast Guard. The Coast Guard capital fleet uses these products
to make decisions at sea, but our ships are old and we
appreciate Congress' support for its recapitalization. NOAA
relies heavily on the weather observations of our ships at sea.
It only makes sense that the technology that supports weather
prediction and distress beacon transmissions also require
updates, and we thank Congress for their support for the JPSS
for NOAA.
As I mentioned before, every day the Coast Guard relies on
NOAA's environmental products and distress alerting information
to ensure the safety of our people, the security of our nation,
and the protection of our environment. Thank you, and I look
forward to answering any questions you may have.
Senator Begich. Thank you again. Thanks to all of you for
your testimony. I will start with 5 minutes with some questions
here to Secretary Glackin.
Let me ask you, in your testimony you talked about, and
you've already heard from the others, too, that the potential
gap, especially in 2016-2017, the 100 percent likelihood that
there will be some gap of some sort at some level. You've also
talked about how NOAA has significant innovation and ideas
around advancing technology to improve weather forecasting and
predictions.
What are we doing to prepare for the potential gap that we
have when we know it's coming? What is NOAA doing to prepare
for that, and what innovative steps are you taking to kind of
be ready for this potential?
Ms. Glackin. Thank you, Senator. As Senator Snowe
highlighted in her introductory remark, the projected gap that
we're talking about is billed around how long we expect the NPP
spacecraft, which we just launched, to be able to last, and
when we're able to launch the JPSS-1 spacecraft and have that
checked out so it's providing useful data, which is obviously
not the day it's launched but some number of months after that.
In regard to addressing what steps to take during that
period of expected gap, there are two primary approaches that
we've been taking. One is strengthening and trying to look at
expanded international partnerships. So, for example, we rely
today on the Europeans for a mid-morning orbit, and we need to
ensure that that partnership stays strong in this period of
time so that we'll have that data available to us so we won't
be without any data. And for the Committee's background, that
spacecraft does fly instruments that are used currently today
in our models and are also what I would say are modern
instruments, not ones that were developed 25 years ago.
Senator Begich. Could I pause you there for 1 second? The
economic troubles that Europe is going through, is there
indication of problems with their funding of their continued
programs that may affect us that you're partnering with?
Ms. Glackin. Well, we can't say that it won't ultimately,
but their next spacecraft that's due to be launched is fully
funded and ready to go, and they have commitments, or
subscriptions they call them, for follow-on efforts in that
regard.
Senator Begich. OK.
Ms. Glackin. So they're well--I think they're well poised,
and that's been an excellent partnership for us.
Beyond that partnership, other countries that we look at
when we look at who is flying instruments that would be
comparable to this, unfortunately there's not a lot there, and
one of the prime ones is China in that regard. So we do have a
dialogue with China, but we have no plans in place in that
regard. We do use some of their data today, is used in
opportunistic ways. So that's one----
Senator Begich. Do they use--if I can interrupt again. I
apologize. Do they use any of our data going the other way?
Ms. Glackin. Yes, yes.
Senator Begich. OK.
Ms. Glackin. Our data is freely available.
Senator Begich. OK. So there is--I mean, for our satellite
system to continue to operate efficiently and effectively, they
have an interest in making sure that occurs, because their
system is robust but not like ours.
Ms. Glackin. That's right.
Senator Begich. Is that fair to say?
Ms. Glackin. It's fair to say, and it's also--I could
further say that our instruments are of superior quality. They
are, of course, putting a lot of money into their program in
this regard, and they have a big pipeline coming. So I think
that they will get better in capability.
Senator Begich. Right. OK.
Ms. Glackin. So that's what we're doing on the
international front, which is probably the most ready thing to
do.
The other is to make sure that we're using all of the
available data that we currently have, and this is in-situ
data, observations that come from on-ground, as well as other
satellite systems that are in this regard. We've really been in
the position of doing this because we do this anyway. So there
has not been a lot there that we can do in this regard, but we
have been looking at that.
And I want to stress to the Committee that using,
assimilating satellite data into numerical weather prediction
models is a non-trivial process. It takes months and years to
get this done, and if you don't do it well, you can actually
degrade the model forecast. So that's not a trivial process.
But the staff is looking at that and trying to see, but
there's really no substitute for a satellite system, obviously,
because it's the way to get the ocean data over the ocean and
things like that. So they're the two primary things we've been
doing.
Senator Begich. Very good. I'm going to ask one quick
question to Mr. Zinser here, and then we'll continue to go with
5 minutes for each remaining senator. Then we may do a second
quick round depending on how people go and keep to the 5
minutes.
But, Mr. Zinser, let me ask you, do you think NOAA--I mean,
I've read your recommendations, and do you think NOAA is
prepared, if funding is flat or lack of funding occurs from
Congress, to fill that gap?
Mr. Zinser. Thank you, Senator. I think any kind of flat-
lining of resources or a reduction of resources is going to
make it more difficult, and what we're recommending is that the
satellite data be made part of a larger formula. NOAA plugs the
satellite data into a larger model to come up with their
observations and predictions, and it needs to make sure that
all parts of the agency are contributing to fixing the data
gap.
Senator Begich. Do you think they are doing that now?
Mr. Zinser. NOAA is not doing everything that we're
recommending. We think NOAA should have a coordinated effort
across the lines of business with the studies necessary to
determine how the lack of satellite data will degrade the
forecast.
Senator Begich. Very good. I'll follow up on this on my
next round.
Senator Snowe?
Senator Snowe. Thank you. Just to clarify the issue of the
short-term and the long-term data gap, does it depend, Mr.
Zinser, on the question of funding only? I understand that's
obviously one of the major issues, but is it the only issue
with respect to the possibility of having this coverage gap?
Mr. Zinser. For the potential near-term gap between NOAA-19
and NPP, it's not so much a funding issue as an issue of
calibration and validation work that needs to be done with
respect to NPP data collecting. Funding is more of an issue for
JPSS-1, and if there is a reduction in any kind of funding,
that will result in some extension of the gap.
Senator Snowe. How long would that short-term gap be?
Mr. Zinser. Potentially it may not exist at all. The issue
is how well NOAA can get the ground system and the science
behind the data validated and calibrated in order to produce
the necessary weather forecast data.
Senator Snowe. Ms. Glackin, you mentioned the fact, when
you were referring to NOAA's response to the report that was
issued by the Inspector General, that the Inspector General's
report should clarify the budgetary assumptions, and that
specifically they should say what request is going to be
essential to avoiding or averting this coverage gap. Is that
correct?
Ms. Glackin. Senator, I believe that you're referring to a
comment that we had on the draft report, was the Inspector
General was projecting a particular gap.
Senator Snowe. Right.
Ms. Glackin. And we've been trying to be careful in this
long period of time, which is going about 18 months now, where
we've had various numbers on the table at various times to be
consistent about what assumptions go into a gap. So that was
the only point that we were making in the Inspector General's
report, is that it would be helpful to have the underlying
assumptions documented.
Senator Snowe. What should be the underlying assumption for
the budget, then? I guess I'm trying to understand that,
because the conference report has it 13 percent less than the
administration's request.
Ms. Glackin. So let me talk to that directly. First of all,
thank you again. It's been fabulous support from this committee
for JPSS, and we are extremely pleased at the conference report
that came out and look forward to that being signed into law.
Based on that, my expectation is that when the President
delivers, my expectation is when the 2013 budget comes out,
we'll reflect into that the JPSS program, including the
projected launch dates that will also take into account the
best we're able to deliver in the time-frame. We have to
respond to the Senate language about out-year costs, which was
also, at least in part, picked up in the conference report.
So I think that given what looks like some certainty in the
funding for 2012 at a level that's not perfect but certainly
very good for this program, we'll be in a much better position
to inform the Committee about what we expect that to be.
Senator Snowe. Mr. Zinser, what would be your response? Do
you think the administration's request is the minimum that is
required in order to keep it on track?
Mr. Zinser. Thank you, Senator. One issue that NOAA needs
to finalize right away is its requirements document. This lays
out cost, schedule, and other requirements; it also provides a
baseline. They need a baseline. And the current timeline for
the launch that NOAA has provided for November 2016 is, as far
as I know, based on the President's Fiscal Year 2012 request.
Our assumptions going in were that funding was going to be
somewhat lower than the President's request; and, in fact, it
will be. As a result, we've added some time in the timeline and
are projecting a launch more in the first quarter of the
calendar year (as opposed to the Fiscal Year) in 2017.
Senator Snowe. I think you make an excellent suggestion
about a baseline, for NOAA to draft a baseline with all the
specific requirements. I think that's very essential for costs
and other requirements to stay on track.
Ms. Glackin. If I could just add, that's what I was
referring to that would be part of the 2013 budget.
What we're saying is consistent.
Senator Snowe. That's great.
At a recent hearing, Ms. Glackin, before the House
Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight, Kathryn Sullivan
of NOAA, testified that NOAA in collaboration with NASA has
fully staffed the JPSS program, that the office was staffed by
NOAA and NASA and the Air Force and contract officers. And I
gather that is at a staffing level of 819, although that's far
short of what NOAA had projected or estimated originally, that
it would require 1,600 contract employees.
So what accounts for the discrepancy, and how is that going
to affect the program?
Ms. Glackin. OK. With the reduced funding that we've had in
2011, we had to limit our priorities and work to getting NPP
launched and fully operational, getting an operational data
stream, and then maintaining work on some critical satellite
instruments that would fly on JPSS-1. We have staff to be able
to support those activities.
However, there is more that we need to do and would be,
again, why we're so excited about the conference report. We'll
now begin to add staff to bring it up to levels that we had
projected because we're going to be able to expand efforts into
areas that we need to work on; for example, the spacecraft bus
for JPSS-1.
Senator Snowe. So will you be going up to the 1,600?
Ms. Glackin. I can't give you an exact number today, but
I'd be happy to take that for the record.
Senator Snowe. I appreciate that. Thank you.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Senator Begich. Thank you very much.
Senator Boozman?
STATEMENT OF HON. JOHN BOOZMAN,
U.S. SENATOR FROM ARKANSAS
Senator Boozman. Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Secretary Glackin, in your testimony you talked about the
importance of high-performance computing, and you also
mentioned earlier that you are working with the Europeans in
this area. Are we working with the other departmental agencies
to see if they can be of value in utilizing their computing
resources? And along these lines, can you comment on the
technical developments that they've developed with our other
agencies?
Ms. Glackin. So the short answer is yes, that we are doing
that. We work across the Federal agencies, and in particular
with the Department of Defense, the Navy, and the Air Force
there, NOAA, and we also work with NASA and DOE on climate
issues and things like that. So we work in terms of the
numerical weather prediction models that we use. Currently,
NOAA is using all of its own high-performance resources to do
this. We have back-up, fail-back capabilities there, but we
don't actually use them operationally.
Senator Boozman. Mr. Zinser, in your written testimony,
could you please clear up something for me? I'm a bit confused.
You talk about the NPP satellite and that it's good for 5
years, but the instruments are only good for 3 years in some
specific or certain cases. Could you please elaborate on that
and tell me a little bit about the problem?
Mr. Zinser. Yes. The issue is that the instruments being
used on NPP have been transferred from the NPOESS program, but
because the NPP was originally designed as a test satellite,
these instruments were not constructed according to NASA
standards. They were constructed according to standards set by
the contractor, and there is some concern that since they
didn't get much government oversight while they were being
developed, they may not last as long as they should. Therefore
our conservative estimate is 3 years for the instruments. The 5
years is for the end-of-life design of the satellite itself,
but there's enough fuel on the satellite to go for 7 years.
Senator Boozman. And how confident are you with regards to
the 3 year versus the 5 year time frame guarantee?
Mr. Zinser. It's very hard to say based on the limitations
that we've identified, but I think 3 years is a conservative
estimate.
Senator Boozman. Very good. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Senator Begich. Thank you very much. We'll do one quick,
final round here before we dismiss the panel. We thank you very
much.
I just want to follow up if I can on the question I had
earlier, Mr. Zinser, in regards to the recommendations and is
NOAA prepared, are they doing it, are they coordinating.
Are there things that indicate to you that they are ready
and willing to do that, or is it just a process that they're
just not geared up yet to have that cross-coordination of all
the different agencies to prepare a--I call it kind of a Plan
B, but also the baseline. Can you respond to that?
Mr. Zinser. Yes. I think that NOAA and NASA are working
diligently, as I mentioned. They have to overcome many years of
setbacks under the NPOESS program. NPP itself is a contingency
operation, and they have had to make decisions in that program
that haven't eliminated all the risks. For example, we
incidated in our report, certain aspects of the ground system
had to be deferred until after launch, because their efforts
were focused on getting the NPP satellite launched. A lot of
the prelaunch work that may have gone on under a normal program
ahead of the launch with respect to the ground system has been
deferred until now, after the satellite has been launched.
Thus they have had competing demands on their resources and
time, but I think that they are looking at different ways to
mitigate the gap, and we're going to continue our oversight
there.
Senator Begich. And from your end of it on the oversight,
can I assume that is also probably a role and responsibility we
should have to make sure that we're checking in with you on a
regular basis to make sure it is happening?
Mr. Zinser. Yes, sir. We'd be happy to keep your staff
informed, and we have a number of audits that we've planned to
carry out this year on both the JPSS, and GOES program.
Senator Begich. Excellent. And then I thought I heard you
say that your analysis of the gap was based on funding but at a
little lower amount than what was proposed by the President's
budget. Did I hear that right?
Mr. Zinser. Yes, sir.
Senator Begich. OK. And a likelihood I think in your
report--and if I'm wrong on this percentage, correct me--was
upwards of 80 percent likelihood there will be a gap, even with
that funding with a reduced amount, which probably reflects
what the conference committee report is now about to produce.
Mr. Zinser. Yes, sir. One of the difficulties in estimating
the JPSS-1 gap is the period of time needed to check out the
instruments. Right now, for example, the checkout could be as
long as 18 months. As a result, when NOAA comes up with its
baseline, the estimate for JPSS-1 instrument checkout will be
critical. It could be 6 months, it could be 18 months.
Senator Begich. Eighteen months. Got you. Thank you very
much.
Let me ask two quick questions to the other two that are
here that probably thought you were going to be off the hook
with no questions. I know what the feeling is sitting there.
You're going, ``Please, no questions. I've done my testimony.
Let me go sit back in the chair.'' Not possible here.
[Laughter.]
Senator Begich. Let me, Mr. Trimble, let me ask you, and I
know GAO did a web-based kind of questionnaire in asking
agencies and others should there be a Federal service to
consolidate and deliver climate information to decisionmakers,
and I think it was 60 percent or somewhere in that area if I
remember right, a pretty high percentage said yes.
Can you just elaborate a little more on that, and do you
think having a centralized system like that, or a central place
for information, will create some restrictive ability for it to
be flexible and nimble in this ever-changing information that's
flowing? Does that question make sense to you?
Mr. Trimble. Absolutely.
Senator Begich. OK.
Mr. Trimble. In our 2009 report, we surveyed knowledgeable
climate information users in various branches of government,
and you're right, about 61 percent thought that having a single
source for climate data would be useful.
There are advantages to that approach, Information users
would have a single source, a common methodology, and there is
potential to save money. A small minority, it was about 6
percent, didn't think it would be useful. So it's pretty----
Senator Begich. Pretty overwhelming.
Mr. Trimble. Pretty overwhelming. The downsides, as you
point out, come from comments in an NRC paper from 2009. The
National Research Council raised those concerns about being
detached from the users who need the information. So I think
there's always tension about how much centralization. If you
get too centralized, you get away from the people who need the
data. So I think what they were pointing out was concerns that
if you get too centralized, you are getting away from the
people who need climate information it is difficult to be
responsive.
In this area in particular, the users of climate-related
data are not necessarily traditional NOAA customers, so you
don't necessarily have the same longstanding relationship. So I
think that was the gist of it.
Senator Begich. Is that something that could be mitigated
you feel?
Mr. Trimble. You know, we've not done work on that
question. I expect it could be. We've not reviewed the details
of any plan for this, but I assume that could be tackled.
Senator Begich. Very good. Thank you very much.
Admiral Thomas, let me ask you just a quick question. First
off, thank you for those couple of examples of how weather
information is vital.
In your work that's occurring and continuing to increase
really as you look at the Arctic and Alaska and the issues of
oil and gas and transportation, all the things that are
happening now in the Arctic, when I look at the dates of 2016,
2017, through 2017, beginning of 2018, there's going to be a
lot of activity up there, with or without us promoting it, I
mean the U.S. I mean, there's shipping already going, there are
visitors, what's going on in Russia, all kinds of activity.
Give me your thoughts or maybe just quickly. Do you think
that the Coast Guard is fully engaged enough to make sure that
NOAA has the necessary information? Because without that
weather information, you're going to be at a disadvantage. Is
that a fair statement?
Admiral Thomas. Thank you, Senator. What I'd like to do is
just describe a little bit about how we prosecute search and
rescue, and how we then apply weather data in order to help
provide the very best operational decisions to be able to
minimize risk and increase response time.
So search and rescue is a system. And so for us, it
requires us to use airplanes, to use ships, to use boats, to
use commercial mariners, to use other commercial salvage people
in order to prosecute a search and rescue case. Well, it's the
same thing as a consumer of weather. So we use NOAA data, we
use DOD data, we use NGA data, we use international partner
data, observers in airplanes, observers on the sea, NASA,
international partners. All help provide data that goes into
our search and rescue system.
So then we'll get data on-scene, and then we send out the
right asset. We make search planning decisions based on all
that information.
Two roles that I play. I sit on FEMA's Emergency Support
Functions Leadership Group, and in that capacity is we're
preparing for all disasters. We're responding to them. Weather
is a critical part of that. Secondarily, I am also the chair of
the National Search and Rescue Committee, and NOAA is an
important player on that as well, both from the weather
perspective as well as the distress beacon perspective.
So minimizing the gap in-between the NPP and the JPSS
system will allow us to improve response time, will allow us to
minimize the risk to our crews, will allow us to increase our
effectiveness on-scene.
Senator Begich. Very good. Thank you very much, Admiral.
Senator Snowe?
Senator Snowe. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Admiral Thomas, one of the key components of the JPSS is
the Search and Rescue Satellite-Aided Tracking sensor, SARSAT.
During his testimony before the Subcommittee on Investigations
and Oversight and Environment in the House of Representatives
back in September, David Powner of the GAO testified that NOAA
had not yet determined how it would accommodate the sensor on
the JPSS-1 satellite.
Given the importance of this sensor for search and rescue
missions, can you tell the Committee exactly what action the
Coast Guard is taking to coordinate with NOAA on this sensor?
Admiral Thomas. Thank you, Senator. As I understand, the
first launch of the first JPSS will not hold a SARSAT system on
it, but that said, there are other satellite providers that
will allow us to get rescue data, beacon data. One is a
geostationary satellite that will continue to be flying.
Second, the Coast Guard is partnering with the Air Force to
provide a medium Earth orbit satellite that will allow us to
get additional information as well.
And so weather prediction and distress beacon is sort of
like intelligence, and you wish it to be perfect; it's never
perfect. So through a combination of those technologies, I
believe that the Coast Guard will have sufficient capabilities,
but minimizing the gap will be important for us.
Senator Snowe. So, it is yet to be established; is that
correct?
Admiral Thomas. That's correct. I understand the second,
the next version of JPSS will then go into SARSAT after that.
Yes, ma'am.
Senator Snowe. Ms. Glackin, do you have any comments on
that?
Ms. Glackin. Yes, I would like to comment on that. The
Admiral is quite correct that it's not going to be on the JPSS-
1 satellite. However, it still is included in that timeframe,
and NOAA is currently assessing opportunities to launch this,
whether it would be in a free-fly or another mission of
opportunity. So that's something that we're working through in
the coming months.
Senator Snowe. Admiral Thomas, I noted that there was a
strong partnership between NOAA and the Coast Guard during the
Deep Water Horizon oil spill, and there was very close
cooperation and coordination. Can you tell the Subcommittee how
well that worked in terms of determining the currents, the
tides, and winds with regard to the movement of the oil?
Admiral Thomas. Yes, Senator. Thank you. One of the
important partnerships that NOAA brought to the table is this
program called the Scientific Support Coordinator. So NOAA is a
partner of a national response team, of which the Coast Guard
and EPA are the co-chairs of that team. And then at the
regional level there are regional response teams that also help
provide technical information and strategic priorities for
regional responses.
So then when it gets down to the local level, the Federal
on-scene coordinator needs a suite of folks to help them make
the very best operational decisions that they can make, and
NOAA's Scientific Support Coordinator, very important partner
in that effort, provides principal science advice to the
Federal on-scene coordinator, provides trajectory forecasts,
provides GIS information, information management. They brought
a system called ERMA, which was really crucial to us in making
good decisions.
Shoreline clean-up assessments, all part of the Scientific
Coordinator's support and really an important part of our
response efforts in Deep Water Horizon.
Senator Snowe. I appreciate that.
Mr. Trimble, you mentioned in a report that was published
in May that there needs to be greater coordination between
appropriations and our priorities with respect to climate
research. Given there hasn't been a clear interagency strategy
and coordination when it comes to Earth Observation issues if a
climate service was created, how would that help or how would
that hurt? Are there risks or benefits involved?
Mr. Trimble. From our most recent report there's a broader
need across the Federal Government on the issue of climate
change for a more coherent, articulated national strategy.
Right now, from our survey of users, there's a different sense
of what the priorities are. There's no clear articulation of
that. I think a climate service could help focus some of these
issues.
But as I alluded to earlier, there are pros and cons when
you centralize. You risk over-centralizing. We've not taken a
position on the creation of a climate service. Our reports have
really just talked about the pros and cons at this point.
Senator Snowe. Thank you. Can I just make one point? Mr.
Zinser, I think you've made an excellent recommendation in your
report, suggesting that NOAA should develop a plan or strategy
to report to Congress with understandable data, the impact of
losing the satellite capacity and what the satellite capacity
means for the future, with respect to identifying and
anticipating events much sooner. As we know, the JPSS program,
is expected to reduce the cone of uncertainty for the landfall
of the eye of the storm by estimated 875 miles which is a big
difference in allowing communities to be able to evacuate
sooner and so on. So it saves lives, and it saves money.
I think that that would be a very useful report for
Congress to understand the connection between all of this and
the material effect, both in terms of life and property and
what it means to this country. That would be very helpful.
I gather, Ms. Glackin, that NOAA is in the process of doing
that?
Ms. Glackin. Yes. We accepted the Inspector General's
recommendations and we'll be moving forward on them.
Senator Snowe. Thank you. Ms. Glackin, I wish you well. On
your three decades of service to this country, thank you.
Senator Begich. Can I ask you a quick one on that? When do
you think you'll have a report that will be ready to present?
If you can't answer that right now, can you get that for the
record?
Ms. Glackin. Yes, let me come back, because I guess what
I'm thinking about is that we need to work through, given the
resources we have now, what's the timeframe. I think you would
like not only all of the impacts but you'd like to know what's
that expected gap and when are we expected to see it.
Senator Begich. Yes.
Ms. Glackin. So I think we're going to be, again, pretty
much consistent with the President's budget coming out, that
information.
Senator Begich. OK. Well, we look forward to that, if you
can get that data, so we can do some additional follow-through
on this part of the Committee.
Senator Boozman, do you have some additional?
Senator Boozman. Just a quick question, Mr. Chairman.
Admiral Thomas, you mentioned a number of different tools
that you use in weather predicting and forecasting. I guess the
only thing I would ask of you, while we've got you here, is how
can we make things easier? Are there some specific technical
things that you lack that might be helpful, some gaps that you
have that you'd like to see done to make your life a little bit
easier in being able to carry out your mission?
Admiral Thomas. Thank you, Senator. As a consumer of
weather, we are always looking with our various partners to
help improve the quality of the data. Having done many, many
assignments around the Coast Guard and watching the weather and
making decisions about are we going to go to sea or are we
going to have to close a port, all very difficult challenges
for us. And as I mentioned, we use all of our different
partners because truly making these kinds of decisions is an
art, and there's nothing perfect about it.
And so you take the very, very best information that you
have when you're trying to sort out where you're going to
search for someone who is lost, how long you're going to search
for them, and between things like in the Gulf of Maine has an
oceanographic observatory system that provides information to
our computer systems. We take information from DOD. We take
information from NOAA. We take information--our weather guys
are looking at commercial providers as well to be able to
provide the best things that we can. So we're consumers.
Senator Boozman. Is there some information out there
somewhere that you'd like to collect that's not there but
nevertheless would be helpful in your job?
Admiral Thomas. Right now we've got everything that we
need. But, of course, I'd probably defer to NOAA to continue to
support continued improvements in that.
Senator Boozman. OK. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.
Senator Begich. Thank you very much, and I want to thank
this panel. I appreciate your time here, again being patient
while we asked our second round of questions. Thank you.
We'll now have the next panel come up. And as they get
situated, we have three individuals that will present on the
next panel. Again, we want to thank everyone for taking the
time out of their busy schedules to attend and help give us
information to do a better job in forecasting and predicting
weather and what we need to do to continue to be innovative in
this arena.
The next panel, feel free to go ahead and grab your seats.
Thank you again very much for being here, and we'll go from my
left to right in the sense of presentation. So again, we thank
you.
The first person we have is Mr. Tom Iseman, Program
Director, Water Policy and Implementation, Climate Adaptation,
Western Governors' Association.
Again, we thank you, and we thank you for kind of the
unique partnership that's being developed. So, please.
STATEMENT OF TOM ISEMAN, PROGRAM DIRECTOR, WATER POLICY AND
IMPLEMENTATION, CLIMATE ADAPTATION, WESTERN GOVERNORS'
ASSOCIATION
Mr. Iseman. Thank you, Chairman Begich, Ranking Member
Snowe, and members of the Committee. Good morning. I'm Tom
Iseman. I'm the Program Director for Water and Climate
Adaptation at the Western Governors' Association. WGA is a
bipartisan, consensus-based organization that represents the
Governors of 19 Western states and three U.S. Flag Pacific
Islands.
Western Governors have long recognized the significant
impacts that severe weather events, climate extremes, and long-
term climate trends can have on life in the West. Whether it is
drought, heat waves, severe storms, too little snowpack, or too
much river runoff, they affect natural resources,
infrastructure, economies, and communities throughout the
Western states. That is why WGA has such a strong interest in
the weather and climate data and forecasting services of the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and why we
appreciate the opportunity to testify here today.
Drought in particular has been a high priority for the
Western Governors, and it has been a catalyst for WGA's work
with NOAA. We have worked on drought issues for several
decades, with many administrations and across party lines.
The National Integrated Drought Information System, or
NIDIS, is one of the success stories of our work on drought.
The NIDIS Act was passed by Congress in 2006. NIDIS is building
an emerging network of regional drought early warning systems.
It established a drought portal where information is integrated
across agencies, and it's available at one place online, at
drought.gov.
And most importantly, WGA and the Western states have
worked directly with NOAA and the Federal agencies to co-
develop this system, making NIDIS a model for the development
and delivery of integrated drought and climate information.
While drought can be a widespread and severe phenomenon,
the Governors recognize that a variety of climate and weather
events affect the West. Building on our work on drought, the
Governors adopted a policy resolution in 2009 addressing
climate adaptation science in the West. The policy calls for
improved predictive capabilities at a regional scale; increased
coordination among Federal agencies and with state agencies;
and the establishment of a National Climate Service to
undertake and communicate research and modeling of climate and
its impacts.
Recent events in the West have only underscored the need
for enhanced coordination, improved data networks, and advanced
predictive models on climate and weather events. For example,
the states of the Upper Missouri River Basin have just endured
prolonged and widespread flooding, affecting hundreds of homes
and communities throughout the basin. Governors from the Upper
Missouri states agree on the need for improved forecasting to
reduce flood risk.
In recent testimony on the Missouri River Annual Operating
Plan, Governor Jack Dalrymple of North Dakota called for
significant improvements in predicting snowpack accumulation
and annual runoff, and he urged consideration of NOAA's
forecast for a recurrence of the La Nina climate pattern in
planning reservoir management for 2012.
The same is true of other recent or current events. The
American Southwest is in the midst of severe drought. Guam and
other islands in the West Pacific are located in Typhoon Alley
and experience an array of extreme weather events, or Alaska,
which just last week saw its coast buffeted by a severe storm
that Chairman Begich described.
These and other weather and climate events are confronting
states and local communities every day, and NOAA provides
essential information for states to prepare and respond. This
is why the Governors and NOAA entered into a Memorandum of
Understanding this summer at the Annual Meeting of WGA. The MOU
focuses on sharing weather and climate information, with a
particular emphasis on disaster risk reduction.
Under the MOU, WGA and NOAA intend to target the most
pressing weather and climate issues in specific sub-regions of
the Western states; for example, water resources in the Pacific
Northwest, snowpack and river runoff in the Upper Missouri,
drought in the Southwest, and coastal management on the West
Coast and Pacific Islands.
Over the course of our work with NOAA, several key and
consistent themes have emerged. These are not technological
innovations but rather innovation in how we develop and apply
forecasts to reduce the impact of weather and climate events.
We encourage building state partnerships or partnerships
directly between NOAA and the states. We recognize the
importance of engaging the private sector in this effort. We
urge the design of regionally focused programs. National
information is useful, but we really need to get down to the
local level to understand impacts and take action. We recognize
the need for improving predictive capabilities and models, and
also recognizing the uncertainty associated with forecasts. And
we want to emphasize the importance of providing basic data,
like temperature, precipitation, snowpack, and stream gauging.
And finally, we do agree with the points about the need to
coordinate the Federal climate enterprise.
In conclusion, Western Governors are taking a pragmatic
approach to weather and climate issues. They recognize the
impacts of weather and climate trends, climate extremes and
long-term trends, and they seek information to make sound
management decisions. NOAA plays an essential role in this
effort, and we are pleased to work to strengthen the
development and delivery of this critical information.
Thank you.
[The prepared statement of Mr. Iseman follows:]
Prepared Statement of Tom Iseman, Program Director, Water and Climate
Adaptation, Western Governors' Association
Thank you, Mr. Chairman, Senators, Ladies and Gentlemen.
Good Morning. I am Tom Iseman, Program Director for Water and
Climate Adaptation issues at the Western Governors' Association. I am
pleased to participate this morning on behalf of the Western Governors'
Association. WGA is a bipartisan, consensus-based organization that
represents the Governors of 19 Western states and 3 U.S. Flag Pacific
Islands. The Governors work through the WGA to identify and address key
policy and governance issues, which include natural resources, the
environment, human services, and economic development.
Western Governors have long recognized the significant impacts that
severe weather events and long-term climate trends can have on life in
the West. Whether it is drought, heat waves, severe storms, too little
snowpack or too much river runoff--they all affect the environment,
infrastructure, economies and communities throughout the Western
states. That is why WGA has such a strong interest in the weather and
climate forecasting services of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, and we appreciate the opportunity to testify here
today.
Drought, in particular, has been a high priority for the Western
Governors, and it has been a catalyst for WGA's working relationship
with NOAA. We have worked on drought issues for several decades, with
many administrations and across party lines. You can find many of WGA's
reports and resolutions on this topic on our website, and we have
provided a brief bibliography in our formal submission.
When the National Drought Policy Commission was convened in 1998,
no sitting Western Governors were included. Gov. Brian Schweitzer,
prior to being elected Governor of Montana, was one of 15 members of
the commission, listed simply as ``Montana farmer, rancher and soil
scientist.'' Of course, he later became the Governor of Montana and
Chair of the WGA, during which he carried with him a strong commitment
to address drought issues.
The National Integrated Drought Information System, or NIDIS, is
one of the success stories of our work on drought. The NIDIS Act was
passed by Congress in 2006. It established a `drought portal' where
information is integrated across agencies, providing a single entry
point for users of drought information online at www.drought.gov. NIDIS
is also building an emerging network of drought early warning systems,
working with local managers to address key regional drought planning
needs. Importantly, NIDIS demonstrates a partnership among the Federal
agencies and between the Federal agencies and states and other
stakeholders. WGA has worked directly with NOAA and the Federal
agencies to `co-develop' this system, making NIDIS a model for the
delivery of integrated drought and climate information in partnership
between Federal agencies and states.
While drought has been a focal interest, the Governors recognize
that a variety of climate and weather events affect the Western
economy, public health, and the environment. Building on our work on
drought, the Governors adopted a policy resolution (09-2) in 2009
addressing climate adaptation science in the West. This policy calls
for improved predictive capabilities at a regional scale; increased
coordination among Federal agencies and with state agencies; and the
establishment of a ``National Climate Service'' to undertake and
communicate research and modeling of climate and its impacts.
The resolution also established a Climate Adaptation Work Group
comprising Western state resource managers across a range of sectors
that includes water, wildlife, air quality, and forests. The Work Group
partnered with a number of entities, including NOAA and other Federal
agencies, to prepare a Scoping Report on climate adaptation priorities
for the Western States. This report elaborates on the Western States'
priorities for climate science, including both observational data and
predictive models, as well as enhanced communication between scientists
and decisionmakers.
Recent events in the West have only underscored the importance of
coordination, data, and predictive models on climate and weather
events. For example, the states of the Upper Missouri River Basin have
just endured prolonged and widespread flooding, affecting hundreds of
homes and communities throughout the basin. A group of Governors from
Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Montana has called for
improved forecasting of snowpack and runoff in order to reduce flood
risk. In recent testimony on the Missouri River Annual Operating Plan,
Governor Jack Dalrymple of North Dakota called for ``significant
improvements in predicting snowpack accumulation and annual runoff,''
\1\ and he urged consideration of NOAA's forecast for another La Nina
climate pattern in planning reservoir management for 2012. As North
Dakota's State Water Engineer put it: ``this (2011) was an
unprecedented year; we need to know if we're likely to see these kinds
of events again--and potentially more often--in the future.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Governor Jack Dalrymple, North Dakota, Testimony for the U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers Public Scoping Meeting on the Missourit River
Annual Operating Plan, Bismark, ND, November 1, 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Similarly, the American Southwest is in the midst of a severe
drought; agricultural losses alone in Texas have been estimated to
exceed $5 billion.\2\ Information on current and projected conditions,
as is being provided by NIDIS, is essential to states and local
communities that are affected by drought events. The same is true of
fire management and response, species conservation, coastal protection,
infrastructure investment, and a variety of other decisions that states
and local communities are making every day: they are affected by short-
term weather events and long-term climate trends, and NOAA provides
essential information for states to prepare and respond.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\2\ Travis Miller, et al, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service,
August 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is why the Governors and NOAA entered into a Memorandum of
Understanding this summer at the Annual Meeting of WGA. The MOU focuses
on sharing weather and climate information,\3\ with a particular focus
on disaster risk reduction in the Western states. As Governor Gregoire,
WGA's Chair, said on signing the agreement, ``a good working
relationship with NOAA in providing science and information services
states need will help us all build healthy and resilient communities
and economies.'' Under the MOU, WGA and NOAA intend to target the most
pressing weather and climate issues in specific sub-regions of the
Western states, for example water management in the Pacific Northwest,
snowpack and river runoff in the Upper Missouri, coastal erosion on the
West Coast and Pacific Islands and drought in the Southwest.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\3\ See WGA Inventory of Existing NOAA Climate Services and how
they are Currently Used, prepared by WGA for Governor Otter, March
2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Over the course of our work with NOAA, several key and consistent
themes have emerged:
State Partnerships: NOAA must work directly with states. It
is not enough to post forecasts. By working directly with
states (and other partners), NOAA can ensure that its climate
and weather services are available to decisionmakers and
resource managers, and they can tailor future products to
respond to user needs
Private Sector Engagement: Governors recognize the important
role of the private sector, both as providers and users of
climate information. When the MOU was signed, Governor Gregoire
and Administrator Lubchenco co-hosted a `business roundtable'
with select industries with a clear nexus to climate and
weather. We are pleased to see a private sector panelist today
and look forward to continued work with the private sector in
this effort.
Regional Programs: Weather and climate events, and our
vulnerabilities to them, vary by region. NOAA must respond to
regional variability and priorities by tailoring information
services to the appropriate climatic and management scale. In
NIDIS, we have called these `Regional Early Warning Systems.' A
national map may tell a good story, but users need more
tailored information in order to make investment and management
decisions.
Predictive Capability: WGA (and an array of other resource
managers) consistently call for better forecasts, from seasonal
to multi-decadal time scales. That said, we recognize the
challenges and inherent uncertainties regarding projections of
future climate. Resource managers can make decisions under
climate uncertainty, and have done so for decades in the
American West; but they need clear acknowledgment and
quantification of uncertainty associated with weather and
climate forecasts.
Basic Data: Western States continually emphasize the
importance of basic data to sound resource management. In
addition to temperature and precipitation and other data
provided by NOAA, this includes USGS streamgaging and NRCS
snowpack monitoring. These basic data may be overlooked in the
discussion of global climate models and orbiting satellites,
but they are a fundamental tool of day-to-day resource
management in the West.
Coordination of Federal Agencies: While NOAA is the
undisputed expert in atmospheric sciences, many Federal
agencies contribute weather and climate information or, like
the states, have management responsibilities that are affected
by weather and climate. We urge greater coordination across the
Federal enterprise and clearer points of contact for the
states, which are often confused and overburdened by the array
of Federal initiatives around climate.
In conclusion, Western Governors are taking a pragmatic approach to
weather and climate. They recognize the impacts of weather events and
climate trends, and they seek information to make sound management
decisions. NOAA plays an essential role in this effort, and the
Governors are pleased to work to strengthen delivery of this critical
information and make it more responsive to state needs. We thank you
for the opportunity to be here today.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman, Senators, Ladies and Gentlemen.
______
Western Governors' Association
Policy Resolution 09-2
Supporting the Integration of Climate Change Adaptation Science in the
West
A. Background
1. Global warming poses a serious threat to the Western economy,
public health and environment. The impacts of climate
change are being observed in Western states and are
predicted to worsen in the future. The potential adverse
consequences include variability of precipitation leading
to serious water supply problems, the degradation of air
quality, damage to infrastructure, and the loss of plant
and animal species. Global warming will directly affect
Western industries including tourism, skiing, fishing,
agriculture and forestry and will disproportionally affect
communities with limited resources to adapt and cope.
2. Western Governors recognize that while action to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions are occurring at the local, state,
regional and Federal levels of government, simultaneous
efforts should be taken to mitigate current and potential
future impacts from climate change.
3. Appropriate actions to decrease greenhouse gas emissions must be
taken to avoid, reduce and delay the adverse impacts of
global warming to Western states. In addition, adaption is
necessary to address impacts to Western states from warming
which is unavoidable due to past and current emissions.
4. Predictive modeling is being used by decisionmakers to mitigate
potential economic, social and environmental impacts of
climate change and this type of planning data should be
encouraged. However, these models are still being developed
and their effectiveness for application to natural resource
planning should be assessed and implemented appropriately.
5. The Western States Water Council (WSWC) and the Western
Governors' Wildlife Council (WGWC) are actively pursuing
strategies to identify and adapt to impacts from climate
variability on water and wildlife resources, as identified
in WGA reports.
B. Governors' Policy Statement
1. Western Governors believe that planning for climate change
adaptation should be undertaken in a coordinated fashion at
all levels of government with state expertise being fully
utilized. Such planning must be in cooperation and
consultation with the private sector and non-governmental
organizations.
2. Western Governors urge Congress and the Administration to fund
research to improve predictive capabilities for climate
change and related impacts at regional and global levels.
3. Western Governors encourage Congress and the Administration to
prioritize investment in Federal programs that study
climate adaptation, addressing scientific questions,
natural resource management, and protection of
infrastructure at the regional, state and local levels.
4. Western Governors support the establishment of new revenue
streams to support climate adaptation in relevant climate
change legislation.
5. Western Governors support streamlined coordination of Federal
agencies that respond to climate adaptation and greater
cooperation with state agencies.
6. Western Governors encourage Congress and the Administration to
support the development of a National Climate Service to
undertake, coordinate and communicate necessary research
and modeling with respect to climate change and adaptation.
A National Climate Service should provide relevant decision
tools for local and state governments in addressing climate
change and adaptation issues, should connect social, health
and economic trends to climate change (and vice versa), and
should include in its mission public education and
outreach.
7. Western Governors agree that results from ongoing scientific
research should be assessed and incorporated into policies
related to climate change adaptation and greenhouse gas
emission reduction strategies. (E.g. as predicted impacts
worsen; mitigation efforts should be stepped up).
C. Governors' Management Directive
1. The Western Governors direct WGA staff to establish a Climate
Adaptation Work Group (CAWG) for the purpose of determining
appropriate uses of climate adaptation modeling in
informing natural resource and economic infrastructure
planning and policies, and for identifying and filling
existing gaps in climate adaptation efforts within WGA.
This work group could also review current and future
climate legislation to assess the impact to states and
their efforts to adapt to a changing climate and report
their findings to the WGA Staff Council.
2. Chairs or their designees from existing WGA initiatives will
comprise the initial membership of the CAWG. These existing
groups include WGA's working groups on water, forest
health, wildlife habitat, wildlife corridors and air
quality. This initial membership of CAWG will compare
efforts, share information and identify gaps in their work
as it relates to the broad issues of climate change
adaptation at the state and regional levels. The CAWG will
report these findings to the WGA Staff Council along with
recommendations for the need for, mission and composition
of an expanded CAWG.
3. The Western Governors direct WGA staff to conduct a workshop to
study current climate change modeling and the application
of different models to policy decisionmaking, using the
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment program
as the starting point for consideration.
4. The Western Governors direct WGA staff to work with the CAWG to
prepare a report outlining how to more effectively use
climate change modeling in policy decisionmaking.
5. WGA shall post this resolution to its website to be referred to
and transmitted as necessary.
______
Prepared by the Western Governors' Association, March 2011
------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Inventory of Existing NOAA Climate Services and how they are Currently
Used: This table identifies existing NOAA climate services \1\ and who
uses them to make decisions. The table focuses on state applications of
climate services and provides several specific examples as
illustrations. Many of the services span categories and are used in
multiple sectors. They also span climate timescales from extreme events
like floods and hurricanes, to seasonal events such as droughts, and
decadal-centennial changes like increases in aridity.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Products and Key Users Examples
Providers
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Services to Support the Agriculture and Water Resource Management
Sectors
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Temperature Forecasts Farmers NOAA provides seasonal
(National Weather Municipal surface water runoff
Service--NWS) Water Managers projections to
Precipitation Forecasts Energy resource managers in
(NWS) Companies Idaho. This
River Flow Forecasts Levee/Flood information has been
(NWS-River Forecast Control Management used for maximizing
Centers i) State hydro-power output,
Drought Monitoring and Departments of irrigation supplies,
Forecasts Agriculture and conservation
(National Integrated State Water flows for endangered
Drought Resource Boards fish populations. It
Information System- USDA/NRCS has also been used to
NIDIS ii) Bureau of explore sites in the
Climate Normals Reclamation state of Idaho for
(National Climatic Data potential new
Center--NCDC iii) hydropower generating
U.S. Drought Monitor stations.
(NOAA--USDA--National
Drought
Mitigation Center
Partnership)
Crop yield risks (RISAs
iv)
Estimate crop water
usage
(Regional Climate
Centers v)
Regional Drought
Outlooks (NIDIS)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Services to Support the Energy Sector
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climatology on wind and Energy Energy producers use
energy Companies NOAA projections of
(NCDC) State Public precipitation, wind,
Greenhouse Gas Utility Commissions and weather to plan
Monitoring DOE, NASA, EPA and manage solar,
(NOAA Global Monitoring wind-power, and
Division) hydropower
facilities.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Services to Support the Transportation Sector
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Navigation charts Airline Engineers are tasked
(NCDC Buoy Data) Industry with provid-ing safe
Real-time Tides and Shipping roadways under
Currents Industry virtually all weather
(NOAA Tides and Port Managers conditions. Caltrans
Currents) State DOTs is working with NOAA
Surface Airport DOT, FAA and other
Climatology climatologists and
(NWS) hydrologists to
Extreme Weather develop new methods
Forecasts for estimating peak
(NWS-Storm Predication precipitation and
Center vi) runoff events for the
purpose of road
design and safety.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Services to Support the Public Health and Safety Sectors
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane Forecasting State and The Oregon state
(NOAA Nat'l Hurricane Local Emergency epidemiologist is a
Center vii) Managers member of Oregon's
Tornado Forecasting Public Health Climate Change
(NOAA Storm Prediction Agencies Integration Group.
Center) Hospitals One of the 10 key
Temperature Extremes FEMA recommendations of
(NCDC) the group is to
incorporate the
implications of
climate change on
public health into
the policy, planning
and preparation for
climate change.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Services to Support the Oceans and Coastal Management Sectors
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sea-level Data Ocean-front The state of Alaska is
(NOAA Nat'l Ocean Communities responding to thawing
Service viii) State Coastal sea ice and increased
Tides and Currents Commissions coastal erosion that
(NOAA Tides and State threaten communities.
Currents) Emergency Managers As Governor Parnell
FEMA stated in testimony
to Congress, ``. . .
the state of Alaska
strongly supports
NOAA and its
initiatives to
improve its
observations and
research across the
Arctic and to develop
innovative
forecasting models
for next week's
weather and the next
century's climate.''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ This table focuses on NOAA climate services. Other agencies also
provide climate-related information, including the USGS streamgaging
network and the NRCS snowpack network. Coordinating with these other
agencies would be part of the mission of the proposed NOAA Climate
Service.
i National Weather Service River Forecast Centers (NWS-RFCs) performs
continuous river basin modeling and provides hydrologic forecast and
guidance products for hundreds of locations along rivers and streams
across the U.S.
ii National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) is an
interagency and interstate effort to establish a drought early warning
network for the U.S. NIDIS provides a better understanding of how and
why droughts affect society, the economy, and the environment, and is
improving accessibility, dissemination, and use of early warning
information for drought risk management.
iii National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) provides access and stewardship
to the Nation's resource of global climate and weather related data
and information, and assess and monitor climate variation and change.
iv Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISAs) focus on sector
specific users and the environment in which they make decisions and
where climate data could be used to improve the quality of those
decisions.
v Regional Climate Centers (RCCs) provide and develop sector-specific
climate data products and services and provide integration of climate
data from multiple sources.
vi NWS-Storm Prediction Center issues timely watch and forecast products
dealing with tornadoes, wildfires and other hazardous weather
phenomena.
vii NWS-National Hurricane Center issues watches, warnings, forecasts
and analyses of hazardous tropical weather.
viii National Ocean Service translates science, tools, and services into
action, to address threats to coastal areas such as climate change,
population growth, port congestion, and contaminants in the
environment, all working toward healthy coasts and healthy economies.
WGA-WSWC Bibliography
The Western Governors' Association and Western States Water Council
have written a series of reports on water, drought and climate
adaptation. The reports are available at our website: www.westgov.org
under the `Reports' tab. These reports include:
Drought Response Action Plan, Western Governors' Association,
November 1996.
Creating a Drought Early Warning System for the 21st Century:
The National Integrated Drought Information System, Western
Governors' Association, June 2004.
Water Needs and Strategies for a Sustainable Future, Western
Governors' Association and Western States Water Council, June
2006.
Water Needs and Strategies for a Sustainable Future: Next
Steps, Western Governors' Association and Western States Water
Council, June 2008.
Climate Adaptation Priorities for the Western States: Scoping
Report, Western Governors' Association, June 2010.
Improving Drought Preparedness in the West: Findings and
Recommendations from the Western Governors' Association and
Western States Water Council Workshops, January 2011.
In addition, the National Drought Policy Commission authored a
report on drought policy:
Report of the National Drought Policy Commission: Preparing for
Drought in the 21st Century, National Drought Policy
Commission, May 2000. http://www
.drought.unl.edu/pubs/pfd21main.html
Senator Begich. Thank you very much.
Next we have Dr. Peter Neilley, Vice President, Global
Forecasting Services, the Weather Channel Companies.
I hope when I appeared on Weather Channel, we did not ruin
your ratings.
[Laughter.]
Dr. Neilley. I think you helped very much.
Senator Begich. I know you have good morning ratings. Put
us on there, things will go the other way. So thank you very
much for being here.
STATEMENT OF DR. PETER P. NEILLEY, VICE PRESIDENT, GLOBAL
FORECASTING SERVICES, THE WEATHER CHANNEL COMPANIES
Dr. Neilley. Thank you, Chairman Begich and Ranking Member
Snowe, and members of the Committee. Good morning, and thank
you for the opportunity for us to address you today.
Again, my name is Dr. Peter Neilley, and I am the Vice
President for Global Forecasting Services for the Weather
Channel Companies. I am also the Chair of the American
Meteorological Society's Committee on Weather and Forecasting,
and a member of NOAA's Environmental Information Services
Working Group.
The Weather Channel Companies are a major developer and
provider of weather services for consumers and businesses
across our Nation. Our television, Web and mobile products
reach nearly 100 million users each month. We also serve nearly
half of the television stations across the U.S., dozens of
global airlines, and numerous traditional and renewable energy
companies worldwide. We have been serving the Nation's weather
interests for 30 years, and we're proud and respectful of the
trust the Nation has instilled in us to inform and protect it
from the weather.
We are one of many private weather companies that provide
weather and forecasting services to serve our Nation.
Weather is woven into the fabric of our society. A recent
estimate suggested that nearly 40 percent of our economy is
sensitive to the weather. So far this year we have seen 14 $1
billion weather disasters, more than any year on record, and
that does not include the accounting of last week's storm in
Alaska.
Despite these losses, our Nation enjoys substantial
protection from the weather. One recent study estimated that
the roughly $5 billion we spend annually producing weather
information directly avoids over $30 billion in annual weather-
related losses. Hence, our investments in a weather-ready
nation are paying substantial dividends to the economy, and
continuing such investments will return far more value to our
society than their cost.
Our nation is the global leader in the creation of state-
of-the-science weather information to serve our society. This
is the result of the Weather Enterprise, an effective three-way
partnership between NOAA and other weather-related government
agencies, private weather services, and academic and research
institutions. The effectiveness of the Weather Enterprise to
serve society is derived from the cutting-edge science and
technology developed by the research community, NOAA's
implementation of these technologies to create foundational
datasets, weather and climate datasets, and the private sector
building upon these foundational datasets to create forecasts
and other value-added products.
The private sector is where much of the weather-related job
creation has occurred recently, such as the weather-services
sector enjoys one of the lowest unemployment rates in the
Nation, as recently reported by the Wall Street Journal.
It is critical that our Nation designs and funds next-
generation weather and climate services with an Enterprise-
optimized perspective is used so that we continue to derive
optimal value from these investments.
The foundational weather datasets from NOAA are essential
to the private sector's ability to create and deliver weather
information for the Nation. From our perspective, continued
provision and evolution of these data is the single most
important function of NOAA. Doing so will enable the broader
Weather Enterprise to create new weather services to meet the
evolving needs of the Nation and grow our economy.
History has shown that the private sector is the most
responsive and effective at developing new applications of
NOAA's foundational weather information. Therefore, the private
sector should strategically be relied upon to deliver next-
generation weather services that leverage evolving foundational
datasets from NOAA.
The specific needs of the Weather Channel Companies for
information services from NOAA are, in priority order: one, the
sustainment and evolution of all existing weather-observing
platforms; two, improved numerical weather prediction
capabilities; three, access to all known weather data,
including those currently not readily available; four, improved
detection of hazardous weather phenomena, particularly those
that are not well-observed by the existing weather radars;
five, liaison with NOAA's international counterparts to seek
open access to all international weather information that
enables fair competition in a global economy; six, support of
scientific research that improves forecasts of impactful
weather by the Enterprise; and finally, seven, climate
information and forecasts to inform our Nation about the
impacts of a potentially changing climate.
The Weather Channel Companies plays an important role in
serving the weather needs of the Nation. We perform this
function only through a collaborative partnership with the
Weather Enterprise. NOAA's crucial role in the Weather
Enterprise is the creation of the foundational datasets and
sustaining and involving those datasets as critical to the
Weather Channel Companies' ability to help make our Nation
weather ready.
Thank you for the opportunity to address the Committee, and
I'll look forward to your questions.
[The prepared statement of Dr. Neilley follows:]
Prepared Statement of Dr. Peter P. Neilley, Vice President, Global
Forecasting Services, The Weather Channel Companies
Introduction
Chairman Begich, Ranking Member Snowe, and Members of the
Subcommittee--Good morning and thank you for the opportunity to address
you today. My name is Dr. Peter P. Neilley and I am the Vice President
of Global Forecasting Services for The Weather Channel Companies. I am
also the Chair of the American Meteorological Society's Committee on
Weather and Forecasting, as well as a member of the Environmental
Information Services Working Group of NOAA's Science Advisory Board. In
my remarks today, I am speaking as a representative of The Weather
Channel Companies.
The Weather Channel Companies, which includes The Weather Channel
and WSI Corporation, is a major developer and provider of weather
services for both consumers and businesses across our Nation and around
the world. The Weather Channel Companies' content is ubiquitous on
nearly all forms of popular communication--The Weather Channel's
television network is available in more than 100 million households,
and our online and mobile products reach nearly 100 million users each
month. In addition to our branded television, radio, print, web and
mobile products for consumers, our content also serves the needs of
businesses around the world with weather solutions for the media,
aviation and energy industries. Through our business-solutions
corporation WSI, our weather content is used by nearly half of the
local television stations across the country, dozens of airlines around
the world and numerous traditional and renewable energy companies
worldwide. We are just one of many private companies that provide a
wide range of valuable weather and forecasting services to meet the
diverse weather needs of our Nation.
We have been serving the weather interests of the Nation for thirty
years and are proud and respectful of the trust the Nation has
instilled in us to inform, advise and protect it from the weather.
Weather Has a Substantial Impact on Our Nation
Weather plays a role in the daily lives of nearly every American
and its impacts are woven into the fabric of our economy. One 2002
published estimate suggested that nearly 40 percent of our economy or
nearly $4 trillion annually is sensitive to the weather. In 2011, so
far we have seen fourteen $1 billion weather disasters occur or over 50
percent more than any other year on record. This includes the numerous
tornado outbreaks that ravished the Southeast this spring, Hurricane
Irene that swept the U.S. eastern seaboard in August, the ongoing
devastating Southern Plains drought, and the recent early season
snowstorm that hit New England. Despite these losses, our Nation enjoys
substantial protection from the weather. One 2009 study estimated that
we avoid over $30 billion in losses annually as a direct result of the
roughly $5 billion annual investment our Nation makes in producing
risk-avoiding weather information. This and other similar studies
clearly show that although our Nation has significant weather risk, our
investments in becoming a weather-ready nation are paying substantial
net dividends to the economy and our society in general. It is
imperative that we continue these investments in order to sustain and
improve our resilience to the weather. Without such investments we
potentially will lose far more value to our society than the cost of
these investments.
The Weather Enterprise is Critical in Meeting the Needs of a Weather-
Ready Nation
The United States enjoys the broadest and most effective
meteorological services in the world. Our nation is the global leader
in the creation of state-of-the-science weather information and the
provisioning of that information to serve both public and private
interests in safety and economic prosperity. This leadership is the
result of a strong and vibrant three-way partnership between (a) NOAA
and other weather-related government agencies, (b) private weather
services such as The Weather Channel network, and (c) academic and
research institutions. Collectively, the players in this partnership
are generally referred to as the Weather Enterprise. Each sector of the
Enterprise has a unique but critical role to play in serving the
Nation. In general terms, research by the academic community leads to
cutting-edge science and technology that drives the evolution of the
field, NOAA implements and operates these technologies to create
foundational weather and climate datasets, and the private sector
builds upon these datasets to create forecasts and other products that
inform the public and provide value-added services to industry. The
private-sector is also where much of the meteorologically related job
creation has occurred over the past decade and is a principal reason
why the weather-services sector of our economy enjoys one of the lowest
unemployment rates in the Nation.
The stated mission of NOAA's National Weather Service is to protect
life and property and to enhance the national economy. It has been able
to meet this mission only through the mutual collaboration of all
members of the Weather Enterprise. The Weather Channel Companies and
the other private sector weather services play a crucial role in
communicating timely weather information to the Nation. We are
dependent on NOAA, and in particular its National Weather Service for
creating and serving some basic components of our overall service. The
Weather Channel Companies' ability to continue to inform and serve the
Nation effectively is strongly dependent on continued reliable and
accurate foundational information services from NOAA. Further, it is
critical that as our Nation designs and funds next-generation weather
and climate services, that it considers a holistic, Enterprise-
optimized perspective to these services, rather than focusing solely on
optimizing or broadening the roles of the Enterprise's individual
components.
NOAA's Focus on Creating and Serving State-of-the Science Foundational
Weather Datasets
Key to the ability of The Weather Channel Companies to deliver
critical and actionable weather information to serve the Nation are the
foundational datasets from NOAA that provide relevant observations of
the state of the atmosphere, timely watches, warnings and advisories of
threatening weather, and numerical weather prediction datasets that are
reliable and accurate. The creation of these data is a function that
only the government-sector of the Weather Enterprise can adequately
perform. From our perspective, this is the single most important
function of NOAA and it must remain the central focus of the Agency
moving forward. We believe that NOAA's priorities should be the
maintenance and modernization of its weather observing platforms,
sustaining and evolving its world-class numerical weather and climate
prediction capabilities, and ensuring robust and effective
accessibility to its complete set of weather information by the Weather
Enterprise outside of NOAA. Maintaining this as NOAA's core competency
will then enable the broader Weather Enterprise to create new, value-
added weather services to meet the future needs of the Nation. History
has shown that the private-sector is much better equipped, more
responsive and more effective at providing new types of applications of
NOAA's foundational weather information. Therefore, the private-sector
should strategically be relied upon to develop and deliver next-
generation weather services such as forecasts of weather's impacts, and
new communication services for a rapidly evolving digital society that
leverage next-generation foundational datasets from NOAA.
Critical Information Needs of The Weather Channel Companies
In order to continue to meet the needs of a weather-ready nation,
The Weather Channel Companies will require new and evolved information
services, many of which we believe are best met by capabilities
developed and provided by NOAA. In priority order, our overall needs
for services from NOAA are:
1. Sustaining state-of-the-science weather observation platforms and
capabilities including weather radars, satellite observing
systems and traditional weather observing systems.
2. Improved numerical weather prediction capabilities that employ
state-of-the-science initialization techniques and other
improvements that optimize the accuracy and usable duration of
their output.
3. Implementing new approaches that enable timely access and use of
the complete set of weather and forecast data that NOAA
currently creates but for which practical considerations limit
the ability to share outside of NOAA. This includes full-
resolution, ensemble numerical weather prediction datasets that
are generally too large to practically and timely communicate,
and therefore are not fully leveraged to serve society today.
4. The deployment of new sensors and technologies to better detect
hazardous weather near the surface of the earth such as
tornadoes and other forms of severe weather. This includes a
denser weather radar network that can detect the many low-level
tornadoes that are not well observed by the existing NOAA
radars.
5. Aggressive liaison with its international counterparts to provide
open and fair access to international weather and forecast
information so that we may effectively and fairly compete on
the world marketplace in the provisioning of weather
information for a global economy.
6. Continued funding and other support of scientific research that
will improve the Enterprise's ability to detect threatening
weather, forecast its occurrence, and inform society of its
impacts in effective ways.
Climate Services needs for The Weather Channel Companies
Our Nation faces uncertain but potentially substantial impacts from
a changing climate. In order for our Nation to make informed and
effective choices on responses and adaptation, it is important that our
society be informed with factual, accurate and relevant climate
information. Although The Weather Channel Companies' traditional focus
has been in the provision of real-time and short-term weather
information, we recognize and accept a responsibility to help inform
the Nation regarding climate changes and its potential impacts. We
believe that The Weather Channel Companies should play a leading role
in educating our Nation about climate matters in a balanced and
scientifically sound manner. In order to serve that role, The Weather
Channel Companies will rely on NOAA to develop rich climate data
services, including but not limited to accurate long-term weather
archives, analyses of these data to elicit regional climate variations
and trends, as well as state-of-the-science climate forecasts. We
believe these are critical needs of the Nation and are services best
provided by NOAA as part of its weather and climate foundational
datasets mission.
Summary
The Weather Channel Companies, as a major member of the broader
Weather Enterprise, plays an important role in serving the weather
needs of our Nation. We have been able to perform this function only
through a collaborative partnership with NOAA and its various weather-
related divisions. NOAA's crucial role in the Weather Enterprise is the
creation and provisioning of foundational datasets and we believe this
must remain the core focus of the Agency. Continued modernization and
evolution of these datasets is critical to The Weather Channel
Companies success in its role in making our Nation weather ready.
Thank you for the opportunity to address the Committee. I look
forward to any questions you may have.
Senator Begich. Thank you very much.
Our next panelist is Robert Marshall, President and CEO of
Earth Networks.
STATEMENT OF ROBERT S. MARSHALL, FOUNDER AND CEO, EARTH
NETWORKS, INC.
Mr. Marshall. Thank you, Chairman Begich, Ranking Member
Snowe, and members of the Committee, for your continued
interest in innovation in weather forecasting and prediction,
and allowing me to testify.
My name is Bob Marshall, and I am the Founder and CEO of
Earth Networks. I don't need to spend any time talking about
the great impact that severe weather is having on our society.
We all know it, and we see it every day.
I will focus my remarks on the innovations that can help
cost-effectively improve the accuracy and timeliness of our
forecasts and warnings and to help save more lives.
There is one thing that all scientists and meteorologists
can agree to, and that is that high-quality observations of the
atmosphere are required to produce accurate forecasts and
warnings. You simply must measure what is happening to predict
what will happen in the future.
Of course, NOAA has developed a strong backbone
infrastructure of observations over the past couple of decades,
ranging from surface-based, in-situ and remote sensing
platforms to satellite observing platforms. However, in 2008,
the National Academy of Science report entitled ``From the
Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks'' documented
critical gaps in NOAA's observing infrastructure.
Among other recommendations, this report called for NOAA to
first take advantage of all existing surface-based weather
station networks, otherwise known as mesonets. If properly
integrated, these observational data will clearly improve both
forecasts and warnings. For example, had the National Mesonet
been fully integrated into NWS operations, it is quite possible
that better warnings could have prevented six deaths in the
Indianapolis State Fair tragedy.
It is important to note that these existing networks were
not federally funded but are owned and operated by private
sector companies, states and universities. NOAA must simply
acquire the data and operationalize it, which makes this very
cost effective relative to deployment of new observation
networks.
I am pleased to report that the National Mesonet program
has received some limited funding for pilot programs to date,
but it is not yet in the NOAA base budget, nor has it been
fully funded or operationalized. The National Mesonets should
be fully funded and completed.
Now I want to talk about some exciting advances and
innovations in Mesonet technology. Earth Networks is
spearheading one very exciting innovation to provide improved
severe weather warnings, and that is the integration of total
lightning sensors into our National Mesonet. Researchers have
long known that severe storms have very high total lightning
rates. Simply said, if you can measure total lightning, it is a
precursor to severe weather, and lead times for severe weather
warnings can be improved.
We have deployed these sensors at no up-front cost to the
taxpayer, and our dangerous thunderstorm alerts are now fully
operational in the Continental U.S. Let me briefly mention two
examples. In the terrible super-tornado outbreak across the
South this past spring, where hundreds of our citizens
perished, we evaluated seven of the most devastating of those
tornados. In those events, total lightning-based alerts
provided an extra 13 minutes of warning, on average, over and
above the National Weather Service severe thunderstorm and
tornado warnings. The deadly Springfield, Massachusetts tornado
of June 1 of this year is highlighted on the easel to my left.
Total lightning alerts provided an additional 38 minutes of
increased warning in that situation.
Now let me say that NOAA and the National Weather Service
generally do a fantastic job of warning our citizens to severe
weather dangers, and that is especially true in the super-
tornado outbreak from this spring. But minutes do matter when
it comes to severe weather and saving lives. With improved lead
times, more people will find shelter and more lives will be
saved. I'm pleased to say that total lightning is currently
being trialed in National Weather Service field offices, but
this must be quickly funded and moved to operations.
Again, to provide perspective, NOAA and the National
Weather Service have spent about $4.5 billion over the past
couple of decades, and this investment has yielded an
impressive improvement in lead time, from 4 to 14 minutes.
However, this new and innovative ground-based sensor technology
on the National Mesonet can provide a step-function increase in
warning time for a tiny fraction of the previous investment.
Let me repeat, this technology is here and ready today, and
more lives can be saved.
Lastly, I want to touch on NOAA's overall observational
model. Given the current fiscal and budget reality, it is not
an understatement to say that NOAA's traditional model, to
purchase and own all of the observations it needs, is severely
challenged, if not outright broken. NOAA must embrace public-
private partnership models whereby the cost of the networks are
shared by many users, such as energy and transportation
companies. In our case, NOAA pays a small percentage of what it
would have cost them to deploy a comparable network.
To summarize, even with the budget challenges that NOAA
faces ahead, there are public-private partnerships and
innovative new technologies that will enable us to collectively
and cost-effectively create a weather-ready nation and to
better protect the lives and property of our citizens. Earth
Networks stands ready to do our part.
I thank you for the opportunity to testify, and I'm happy
to take any questions.
[The prepared statement of Mr. Marshall follows:]
Prepared Statement of Robert S. Marshall, Founder and CEO,
Earth Networks, Inc.
Introduction
Thank you, Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee for this
opportunity to testify on the importance of continuing innovation to
improve weather forecasting and warnings. My name is Bob Marshall,
founder and CEO of Earth Networks and I am very appreciative of this
opportunity to discuss topics relating to the weather observing and
forecasting programs of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration. We thank the Committee for its continuing interest in
addressing the complex requirements of observation, prediction,
planning and response, and the critical role these efforts play in
protecting lives and property.
Earth Networks' particular expertise is in owning and operating
large, dense environmental and atmospheric sensor networks. We utilize
the data from these observational networks to deliver daily
environmental information and alerting to millions of consumers;
Federal, state and local governments; and the myriad of industries
impacted by weather. While we certainly rely on many NOAA services, and
incorporate NOAA data and forecasts into our products and services, we
have found that the needs of the marketplace (and of government) often
require higher resolution solutions and data sets that are more locally
targeted and in much greater frequency than NOAA is currently able to
provide through its own observing networks. In this manner, existing
local networks of this type are able to supplement NOAA's in a unique
and powerful public/private partnership.
Weather is having a greater impact on our society than ever before.
This includes impacts to the lives and property of our citizens and to
our economy. To provide the most accurate forecasts and warnings for
weather, dense high quality observations are required, so I will focus
my comments on that component of the overall system. Without
observations of the atmosphere, quality forecasts and warnings are not
possible. And meteorological observations on the mesoscale (i.e.,
local/county scale) are of the greatest importance as evidenced by the
fact that the vast majority of severe weather life and property losses
are associated with mesoscale events such as tornados, thunderstorms,
fronts, squall lines, etc.
The need for improvements in observations of this kind are well
documented and compelling as recently indicated within the National
Research Council report From the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of
Networks. Among other recommendations, the Council advocated that a
first priority be the development of a surface based National Mesonet,
with comprehensive data collection, quality control and dissemination
capabilities, which will provide the critical information needed to
improve short and medium term weather forecasting (down to local
scales), plume dispersion modeling, and air quality analyses. In this
manner, not only will the overall capabilities of the atmospheric
community be substantially improved, but decisionmaking will be
significantly enhanced across a broad spectrum of market sectors and
end user constituencies including energy, agriculture, homeland
security, disaster management and emergency response, insurance and
economic forecasting, transportation, education, recreation and
scientific research.
From an observing perspective, there are a number of specific areas
that NOAA weather and climate programs should focus on in order to
establish a truly Weather Ready Nation. Three key areas are: (1) a
comprehensive and robust observing system; (2) early warning
capabilities that leverage key mesoscale observing systems; and (3)
strong public-private partnerships. While each of these components
could be examined more closely to identify key requirements, assess the
current condition of readiness and prescribe appropriate efforts and
investments necessary for a more capable domestic program, my testimony
today will only touch upon these aspects at a high level. Please note
that my recommendations here today are rooted in recent reports from
the National Academy of Sciences, national efforts by leading industry
associations regarding weather and climate services, as well as my own
experiences in leading an organization that interacts with all aspects
of the American Weather Enterprise, i.e., public, private and academic
interests involved in sourcing and distributing weather information.
Finally, I'll also touch briefly upon climate considerations in this
regard.
(1) Comprehensive and Robust Observing Systems
The objective of weather and climate observing systems is to
provide critical information on the current state of the atmosphere and
terrestrial biosphere in a timely manner such that informed decisions
can be made at varying time scales. In this context, decisions on the
long term may involve potential global temperature changes and sea
level rise that require development of climate mitigation and
adaptation strategies. Intermediate term decisions may include flood,
drought and winter weather or tropical storms expected to affect large
areas and many sectors of the economy over prolonged periods of time.
Alternatively, short fuse decisions more often entail those relating to
convective (i.e., thunderstorm) weather events that while often
widespread, occur quickly and dramatically impact people, property and
critical assets.
Supporting these varying decisions and timescales requires various
types of observation platforms, including surface based in-situ and
remote sensing monitoring networks as well as space based satellite
systems. When seamlessly integrated, these complementary resources
provide the raw data foundation upon which an entire nationwide
decision support system is built. These data are critical inputs to and
required for the establishment of situational awareness, the generation
of forecasts, as well as the subsequent dissemination of warnings and
alerts for the protection of life, infrastructure and optimization of
weather sensitive market sectors. With regard to the latter, it should
be noted that the impact of weather on our Nation's economy was
recently estimated to be as much as $485 billion or 3.4 percent of the
2008 U.S. gross domestic product. (Lazo, Lawson, Larsen and Waldman,
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, June 2011, (http://
www.sip.ucar.edu/publications/PDF/Lazo_sensitivity_June_2011.pdf).
Recent advances in electronics technology have enabled surface
based sensors to become smaller, faster, more accurate, more reliable
and less expensive. Networking of the sensors via the Internet and
wireless networks has enabled dense surface based observation networks
to proliferate rapidly. Environmental parameters that were once not
practical to observe at the surface are now proven and operational. In
some cases, these breakthroughs in surface based network technology
potentially obviate the need to observe these parameters from space,
where the costs and risks to do so are far higher. Generally, anything
that can be observed from the surface should be observed at the surface
due to the extremely high costs and risk factors inherent in any
satellite launch. Satellites should only be considered where ground
based sensors are inadequate.
These advances are similar to the advances seen in astronomy. Ten
or twenty years ago, the technology available from ground-based
telescopes was not adequate to capture data at sufficient resolution
for all research purposes; space based telescopes like Hubble were
necessary. Now, technological advances have significantly improved the
capability of ground-based observations. As a result, we collect from
space only that data which we cannot collect from the ground--the two
domains complement each other. Like in astronomy, improvements in the
technology of ground-based in situ sensors, communications, power
management, data handling and storage have all enabled the deployment
of cost-efficient sensor networks with a density sufficient to allow
applications thought impossible just a few short years ago.
But sometimes a satellite is the appropriate answer. For example,
the JPSS satellite is critical to NOAA's ability to forecast weather
accurately, especially in the 3-5 day period and longer. This was never
more apparent than the terrible southern tornado outbreak from this
spring. The NWS was able to predict a very high potential for severe
weather in the region many days in advance which helped communities to
prepare. Studies have shown that the polar orbiting satellite data was
critical to this success. Winter storms forecasts and warnings are also
another area where the polar orbiting satellites are critical. In last
year's ``snow-mageddon'', NWS forecasts allowed for up to a week's
advanced warning of this storm, which again allowed time for
communities to prepare in advance of the severe weather. There is no
surface based technology that can provide an alternative for the
observations that will be delivered by JPSS. It is critical for JPSS to
be funded to prevent a significant decline in forecast and warning
accuracy for these type events.
(2) Early Warning Capabilities
As mentioned previously, most severe weather occurs at the
mesoscale, i.e., local and regional scale and NOAA/NWS generally does a
very good job of generated severe weather warnings to cover this
domain. However, while warning lead times correspondingly improved
during the NWS modernization that began in the 1980s, during recent
years the warning lead times have not improved appreciably. This is a
direct reflection of operational observing systems also not
significantly improving. With the frequency and severity of weather
events increasing and our population growing, further improvements in
warning lead times are necessary to better protect life and property.
High resolution mesoscale observations enable more accurate and timely
forecasts and warnings in the 0-6 hour's timeframe. Fortunately, this
committee and the National Weather Service have taken steps toward
making this capability operational by appropriating monies for and
implementing demonstration programs and pilot projects. For example,
the National Mesonet Program championed by Senator Barbara Mikulski
after the 2004 Baltimore Water Taxi Incident, involves a broad cross
section of weather and climate network operators throughout the country
who are supplying comprehensive surface observations and associated
metadata from stationary and mobile platforms. But more should be done;
we need to move beyond pilot projects to operational implementation.
To this end, I maintain that following the recommendations of the
2008 NRC report From the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks,
and leveraging to the maximum extent existing and proliferating surface
observations, be fully implemented as soon as possible. Doing so will
significantly enhance NOAA's ability to forecast near-term severe
weather and do so in a highly cost-effective manner. This is
particularly germane in a year where the Nation experienced an historic
number of severe weather outbreaks, including destructive Tornado
outbreaks in Tuscaloosa, AL and Joplin, MO as well as severe droughts,
crippling snow storms and devastating hurricanes in other parts of the
country. And the situation is only being exacerbated as our population
grows and migrates toward urban and coastal areas. In fact, the
previous annual record of 9 individual $1 billion weather-related
catastrophes has been surpassed already in 2011 with a record setting
14 as of today.
Beginning in the 1980s, NOAA invested heavily in infrastructure for
observing, analysis, visualization and dissemination capabilities which
resulted in significant tornado warning lead time improvements from 4-
14 minutes. This important and necessary advancement was the outcome of
an approximately $4.5 billion investment. Since then, however, there
have only been marginal improvements. What I want to stress is that new
and innovative technologies can immediately deliver step-function
improvements in early warning times at a fraction of the previous cost.
These advancements in sensor technologies are the result of motivated
and fully engaged private, academic and state government organizations
that have enabled the deployment of dense, surface based observation
networks throughout the country.
A specific recent innovation in mesonet technology is the
integration of total lightning sensors. For many years, researchers
have demonstrated that monitoring cloud flash lightning data at high
detection efficiencies would provide insight into early stage
convective development and that such total lightning observations could
potentially provide significant improvements in storm warnings. But the
technology was never available to cover large, continental areas at a
reasonable cost. Using innovative new technology, Earth Networks has
rapidly and efficiently deployed a continental scale total lightning
network on its nationwide mesonet. This network is operational today
and is automatically producing severe storm alerts with lead times as
much as 30 minutes in advance of NWS Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado
Warnings. During the April 25 to 28, 2011 Super Outbreak that killed
more than 346 people and included the tornado that tore through
Tuscaloosa, AL, Earth Networks total lightning system achieved an
average lead time increase of 13 minutes for a broad subset of these
events. Similar lead time performance achievements have been repeatedly
observed for many other events throughout the country over the past
several years and as such, the NWS is currently piloting the technology
in 27 field and regional forecast offices.
As mentioned, this type of technology has only been made available
on a broad scale and for such purposes during the past couple of years.
It should also be emphasized that its cost is only a small fraction of
that required to achieve the same from space and was accomplished
without consuming a single dollar of taxpayer money. With the Earth
Networks total lightning network being fully operational, the need to
observe lightning in the future from satellites should be evaluated.
The forthcoming GOES-R satellite includes a lightning sensor at a cost
of more than $100M. The Earth Networks ground based total lightning
network already delivers many of the benefits of the GOES-R satellite
lightning sensor including higher resolution and accuracy. This is the
kind of issue that should be looked at carefully, so that the
government can be assured that a proper cost-benefit analysis has been
completed. Even if the GOES-R lightning sensor initiative, scheduled
for operations in 2017, is too far along to be shelved the Earth
Networks total lightning capability should leveraged immediately to
improve severe weather forecasting and alerting as well as to provide
ground truth for satellite calibration, forecast validation and after
action reports.
I have attached a Power Point presentation to this statement that
demonstrates the power and effectiveness of this currently available
and cost effective technology.
(3) Public Private Partnerships
Achieving a condition where the Nation is adequately equipped to
foresee weather related threats and alert the community with sufficient
warning lead-times requires vision, coordination and continued
investment. It is particularly clear, however, that the Federal
Government cannot achieve this goal alone, particularly in the face of
an increasingly difficult budget environment. Therefore, it is
imperative that vigorous public-private partnerships be nourished to
drive innovation and allow for the appropriate mixture of baseline
government provided services and market based offerings. By utilizing
the capabilities of private networks, NOAA can acquire the data and
services it needs at a fraction of the cost of owning the network
assets. The return required for the network deployment costs are
amortized over a variety of market segments; the costs and risks are
shared. Only this type of partnership will ensure that available
government funding is being deployed most effectively and efficiently.
Consistent with the 2003 NRC report entitled Fair Weather:
Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services, the NWS has
initiated and expanded upon a dialogue with the private sector. These
conversations have improved coordination among the sectors by providing
greater insight into each other's respective needs, plans and
capabilities. These efforts should be continued and identified
synergies should be acted upon with greater urgency in order to rapidly
fill the gaps in capabilities and services.
While the Federal Government is well suited to act globally and
nationally, it is limited in its capacity to act locally beyond the
provision of oversight and funding support. As such, it is envisioned
that a public/private partnership structure, with guidance from the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, facilitate and
integrate these disparate networks and delivery of customized services.
An organizational model of this type is particularly applicable given
that many networks have been deployed by local organizations with local
considerations in mind. These stakeholders can react quickly and
efficiently, and are uniquely positioned to recommend future network
evolution within their domains. These networks are in-place and
available today. As such they offer the ability to deliver immediate
returns.
(4) Climate Considerations
Before turning to my conclusions, let me comment briefly on another
related monitoring initiative that Earth Networks is pursuing.
NOAA is charged with conducting research on the complex carbon
cycle and its impact on climate variability. Currently, there are very
limited carbon observations available to scientists for this research.
NOAA operates about 10 such surfaced based carbon observationsites and
there are a few dozen operated by others around the world. The current
carbon observation network is limited to global and continental scale
measurements and analysis. Many more observations are required to
develop a better understanding of the carbon cycle at local and
regional scales and to provide measurement, reporting and verification
to support international treaties, as well as any regulatory or market-
based reductions schema.
Similar to the advances described above, advances in electronics
technology have also significantly improved the ability to accurately
and reliably measure carbon from the surface. Earth Networks is
deploying the largest surface-based greenhouse gas observing network in
the world, with 50 sensors planned for the continental United States,
25 in Europe, and 25 distributed around the rest of the globe. Again,
with this innovative new technology there is the potential for
significant cost savings by increasing investments in ground based
carbon measurements relative to satellite-based measurements.
Unfortunately, the original Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) satellite
launch failed on launch. The cost of that mission was approximately
$280 million. A second carbon satellite, OCO2, is being
developed at a cost of another $200 million. While all scientists,
including those at Earth Networks desire data from both surface and
space based platforms, the question is whether this is practical given
the current budget constraints. Before funds are fully committed to a
new or replacement satellite program, an exhaustive analysis should be
accomplished to determine the tradeoffs associated with these funding
decisions. As the previously referenced National Academies report title
intimated, we should always start ``from the ground up.''
Conclusion
While NOAA has built up significant observational assets and
capabilities over many decades, there remain significant gaps that
limit our ability to further improve forecasts and warnings. Further,
with budget challenges that will no doubt confront us for the
foreseeable future, NOAA's model for acquiring and maintaining critical
observations is infeasible. Overall budgets will likely be flat or
lower. Satellite program costs are consuming an ever larger proportion
of the NOAA budget and the current trajectory is simply not
sustainable.
Immediate improvements, however, in forecasting and prediction can
be realized by utilizing Public-Private partnerships to enhance
existing space and ground based observing platforms. Therefore,
specific strategies adopted in this regard should:
Guarantee annual funding of the National Mesonet in NOAA's
budget to fully integrate locally collected mesoscale surface
weather data into the forecasting and warning functions at
every National Weather Service field office;
Guarantee that NOAA incorporate continental scale total
lightning data into the National Mesonet and into its storm
warning capability to achieve a step-function improvement in
warning times;
Fund cost efficient surface based carbon networks to improve
local and regional scale climate science;
Establish a standing NOAA advisory panel whose sole mission
is to look at the balance of NOAA's forecasting needs for both
weather and climate, and then recommends in a public way how
those requirements should be met between the three
observational domains of surface, airborne and space based
measurements;
Hold annual Congressional hearings on the state of
innovation in forecasting and warning to measure the progress
on the important objectives that the public demands and which
must be done in a fiscally prudent manner given the challenging
economic times.
Through the types of strategies and initiatives that I have
highlighted today, the broader weather and climate industry will be
able to expedite and support NOAA in establishing a truly Weather Ready
Nation.
Thank you for the opportunity to testify today. I would be happy to
answer any questions you may have.
Senator Begich. Thank you very much.
Let me first start, if I can. Again, this will be a 5-
minute round.
Mr. Iseman, let me again thank the WGA for their
partnership with NOAA, and I guess the first question I have
is, from your perspective, what, if any, hurdles are there in
the development or the expansion of the partnership that you
see that maybe are being caused by our end of the equation?
Mr. Iseman. I think the big challenge for us right now in
moving forward with this Memorandum of Understanding is taking
it from the conceptual phase of a memorandum and into
implementation, and we're working through that right now. We've
had great support from NOAA in taking these steps. I think the
real test of this partnership will come when we move to apply
the memorandum in specific places and to work on the ground to
develop the improvements that we've envisioned. So we're
hopeful and optimistic for now.
Senator Begich. Do you think they have--and this is not a
criticism of NOAA. It's just kind of my view of the Federal
Government in general as a former mayor. Do you think they have
the capacity to be regional as you had described? You know, the
Federal Government has a bad habit of let's make everything
national and all will work out for the best, and usually it
doesn't because they don't recognize the regional differences
and the uniqueness of certain areas. I mean, our state has
multiple weather systems, compared to just one state that might
have one weather system.
So can you--tell me your kind of confidence level. I know
you have a good partnership with them, but this is, I think
your comment was--I noted that your concern is can you bring it
down to the regional level.
Mr. Iseman. Right.
Senator Begich. What's your confidence level in that
capacity?
Mr. Iseman. I think there are some positive signs. One is
the MOU itself. Two, I've seen some of the ways that they have
organized and are delivering services at a regional scale, and
one of those is through the NIDIS program, where they're
working on regional early warning systems for drought and
actually working with the people in the local community to
develop those systems and deliver the services. And another is
the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments where they are
marshalling capacities at the universities to help states and
local communities address on-the-ground problems.
So I think there are positive signs, and we'll be happy to
report back on our progress under the MOU.
Senator Begich. I think that would be great, because I
think the more NOAA partners, and that's kind of what this
panel is really about, is how do you partner with other
organizations and groups and private sector to expand the
capacity of NOAA to provide the necessary information for
forecasting and prediction that benefits everybody. So I'd be
very interested in knowing how you progress on that and what
are those challenges that might start to appear in the
implementation of it, because that's always the--it's great and
easy to do an MOU. I used to do those a lot when I was mayor.
But then as mayor, you had to implement them, and so you had to
make sure they were real. And so I would look forward to that
commentary as you move forward.
Mr. Iseman. Thank you, Senator.
Senator Begich. Mr. Marshall, I appreciated your
presentation. Your comment, which again caught me, and I want
to follow up on it, do you think there is enough or are there
areas that NOAA could really expand in maximizing the private
sector capacity of what's now developed? I mean, if this was 20
years ago, it's a whole different ballgame with weather
services in the private sector, but it's a different business
now, proven by the Weather Channel and many of the industries
that are related now to it.
Can you tell me, do you think there is more opportunity
that's not being taken advantage of? And I'll pause for a
second by saying this is a challenge we have also at the Coast
Guard, and that is they want to own everything, and to partner
means less authority or less jurisdiction, and I think there's
a way probably to meld the two. But in NOAA, is that something
that you would hope they would start looking at because of
financial conditions, but also because of technology
development?
Mr. Marshall. Yes. Thank you, Senator. I think there are
really two sides to the public-private partnership from my
perspective. I mean, on one side you have companies like the
Weather Channel, myself, and many others that take the very
important information from NOAA, develop value-added products,
and help distribute that information to businesses and
consumers.
I think one of the new areas that has evolved over the last
decade or so, for sure, is that with advances in technology and
with the ubiquitous nature of the Internet as a communications
platform, virtually every sensor in the world is being
connected to the Internet, and the data is flowing in real time
every second. You know, the sensors are smaller, faster, more
accurate, more reliable, and less expensive. So you have
companies like ourselves that are deploying sensor networks all
over the place, and this is a new area where the private sector
can form a public-private partnership in NOAA to provide that
data to NOAA to integrate into their operations, and it can be
done very quickly and very cost-effectively.
So NOAA does not have to necessarily invest in all of the
observational technology. It can just acquire the data. And I
think that's a relatively new circumstance, and NOAA is
embracing that model to some degree. But technology is evolving
so rapidly that it can certainly be adopted faster, and this
information can be put into the hands of the forecasters to
make sure that warnings and forecasts get better immediately.
Senator Begich. Very good. I'll probably follow up again in
just a minute on that.
Mr. Neilley, let me ask you again. Thank you for your
efforts here. You had seven points, I think, and one of them
that stood out I think was access to weather data not available
now. Can you elaborate on that?
Dr. Neilley. Thank you, Senator. NOAA creates a tremendous
amount of weather information routinely throughout the day. The
volume of it is so vast that it is impractical to communicate a
lot of that information outside of NOAA, and decisions must be
made about how to filter that data to provide general services
to partners of NOAA.
However, the data that is unfiltered still has a tremendous
amount of value to providing forecasting information, and we
need to seek ways in which we can have access and use that
information to create more value from that information.
As I mentioned earlier, I sit on the Environmental
Information Services Working Group of NOAA, and we're exploring
that question and expect to have recommendations to the NOAA
Science Advisory Panel perhaps later this month.
Senator Begich. And do you think NOAA is responsive to this
idea of sharing some of the--it's basically the raw data?
Dr. Neilley. I think--I believe they are. In preliminary
discussions with NOAA, they certainly embrace this. Dr. Jack
Hayes made a public endorsement of some of the concepts that
were put forth and how we might be sharing some more of these
data, and recent discussions with Kathy Sullivan have indicated
strong endorsement of trying to figure out ways in which
overall the society can benefit from all the data that NOAA
has, yes.
Senator Begich. Very good.
Senator Snowe?
Senator Snowe. Thank you. Just a follow-up on that
question. Has there been information that you haven't received
in the accumulation of that data, that raw data, that could
have had an effect on the public, do you think?
Dr. Neilley. Oh, absolutely. We wouldn't be seeking this
information if we didn't think it had a great deal of value to
the public. It probably would be difficult to cite a specific
example offhand, but there are--it would probably be conveyed
in everyday weather, the frequency with which we update the
information, the precision of which we can provide the
information to the public so they can make daily decisions in
going about their lives and businesses.
Senator Snowe. So do they filter the data that gets to you,
or what is the answer? Are they just accumulating it so fast
that they can't transmit that data?
Dr. Neilley. It's both of those. The data gets accumulated
so fast. Super-computers run and create the information at a
great deal of precision and resolution, and fundamentally we
don't have communication systems to make it practicable to send
that data outside of those super-computing facilities.
Senator Snowe. You mentioned in your testimony that the
private sector should be strategically relied upon to deliver
next-generation weather services, and I know that you, and Mr.
Marshall as well, probably use a lot of mobile phone
technology, desktop applications and so forth. Would that
suggest reaching a broader audience through those mechanisms
and through the advanced technologies that people use every
day?
Dr. Neilley. Absolutely. History has shown that the private
sector has been much more adaptable and responsive and faster
in developing services that the public uses and can consume in
their everyday lives, and I believe it's one of those--relying
on the private sector to be the voice of the weather to the
Nation is one of those ways that the private sector can most
effectively do and should be the strength of what we should
rely on from the strengths of the private sector.
Senator Snowe. Thank you, Dr. Neilley.
Mr. Marshall, you were mentioning this national Mesonet
program. How has NOAA reacted to that?
Mr. Marshall. Well, I think they've embraced the National
Academy's report that came out in 2008. I think there has been
some activity and there has been some limited funding put in
place. I mean, we are somewhat disappointed that the Mesonet
activities have not made it into the President's budget yet,
despite the fact that the national Mesonet is briefed routinely
by Dr. Hayes and his team as something that's very important
for the National Weather Service strategically. So we certainly
would like to see that become a reality, because this is very
cost effective. It's leveraging existing sensor networks that
are out there, that all you have to do is integrate them into
the operations of the forecast offices and immediate
improvements can happen for forecasts and earlier warnings.
So relative to the cost of deploying a new satellite, which
is measured in the billions of dollars, this is very, very
inexpensive and something that can happen very, very quickly.
Senator Snowe. So are you suggesting there could be more
sensors in different locations?
Mr. Marshall. Well, I mean, there are tens of thousands of
sensors out there today that are in different networks. We have
our own, universities, other companies, and that data just
needs to be integrated into one database and leveraged by the
National Weather Service. Again, there has been some work done,
but I think it's really a clear opportunity to make substantial
progress in the short run, particularly when you have a
difficult budget environment where you can't fund everything
that you want to do. This is low-hanging fruit.
Senator Snowe. Right. So you're suggesting instead of
having to deal with major satellites, that you could do some
limited investments to gather all the information that's out
there that's being accumulated on a daily basis.
Mr. Marshall. Yes, and I want to make sure I'm clear. I
mean, in certain situations, yes. You can take advantage of
existing networks, and they can fulfill the needs of many
things, even stuff that satellites can do; not for all things,
though.
Senator Snowe. Right.
Mr. Marshall. So when you come to, like, the JPSS
satellite, there is no surface-based alternative sensors out
there today that would fit the need for that. So that's an
important and critical initiative for NOAA that needs to move
forward, or else there will be a big gap in their ability to
forecast weather, particularly in the 3 to 5 day time-frame for
winter storms and tropicals. So there isn't surface-based
alternatives for that, but there are for other things that can
really make a material improvement for forecasts and warnings.
Senator Snowe. Does NOAA integrate all your data?
Mr. Marshall. Not all of it. I mean, no. I mean, it's
partial. At the end of the day, we've done some limited pilot
projects, but clearly it would not take a significant amount of
money to make sure that the data from our network, from other
company private-sector networks, from academic networks gets
integrated, assimilated, and used operationally within the
forecast offices and in the numerical forecast models, and
that's really what we would like to see happen.
Senator Snowe. I see.
Mr. Iseman, you were discussing the importance of tailoring
information to the appropriate scale for regions and resource
managers. Could NOAA make better use of their weather service
stations, for example, as a way of doing that?
Mr. Iseman. I'm not prepared to comment on that question
right now. I'd like to get back to you.
Senator Snowe. Are there ways in which NOAA could better
engage local communities right now?
Mr. Iseman. Well, absolutely, and I'm sorry, I'm not
familiar with all of the efforts that NOAA has under way to
work directly with local communities, but we see a lot of ways
that they could engage with the states, ways that we're trying
to implement through this Memorandum of Understanding that we
think can improve this relationship.
Senator Snowe. Yes, I am aware of the MOU that was just
reached, and that certainly would be an important step forward
to have that common understanding and that partnership. But the
outreach by NOAA to states and local communities could be
extremely important in all of this, as well.
Mr. Iseman. Agreed. Thank you, Senator. And one of the
things that NOAA has been doing is more Webinars and updates on
a regular basis with the communities that are affected by these
events, and I know right now they've got a series going on in
the Southwest for drought, and they're going to be starting one
in the Upper Missouri to look at the forecasts for snowpack and
river runoff, and I think they're getting ahead of the game in
trying to do a better job of communicating that.
Senator Snowe. I appreciate that. Thank you.
Mr. Iseman. Thank you.
Senator Snowe. Thank you all.
Senator Begich. Thank you all very much. I just have two
quick questions, and one, just to make sure, Mr. Marshall, only
because, being parochial here for a moment, Mesonet, is it
connected to Alaska or not? Is it continental? Did I hear
continental; right?
Mr. Marshall. Yes. They are absolutely. Thank you, Senator.
No. The Mesonet is really, they're a global Mesonet. So we have
sensors in Alaska. There are others that have sensors in
Alaska. And all of that information should absolutely be
integrated into one national Mesonet to make sure that the
Weather Service takes advantage of that existing data in your
state, in all the other states.
Senator Begich. Very good. Thank you.
Mr. Iseman, let me end my--I just have one final question,
and that is you heard the last panel that was here. I talked
about the Centralized Climate Service Program and that there
was a group, a small percentage, a very small percentage, that
are concerned that when you centralize it, you may not create
enough information flowing out. I'm assuming the same comment
you had earlier on my other question about making sure it's
regional, local, the work that NOAA does and the MOU you have,
same situation probably here, that you want to make sure if
they centralize, that there's still a local understanding of
what's going on. Is that a fair statement?
Mr. Iseman. Yes, it is, Senator. And----
Senator Begich. I just didn't want to assume that based on
your earlier statement.
Mr. Iseman. We have supported a national climate service.
We think there's value in coordinating and centralizing this
information and disseminating it. But one of our important
comments on that topic has been that it be regionalized.
Senator Begich. OK. Very good.
Senator Snowe. May I ask a question?
Senator Begich. Yes, Senator Snowe.
Senator Snowe. I wanted to ask you, Dr. Neilley, so it's
not our imagination that we're experiencing extreme weather
events? Is it unprecedented in this last year?
Dr. Neilley. Certainly from an economic----
Senator Begich. Microphone? There we go.
Dr. Neilley. Thank you, Senator. Certainly from an economic
perspective, so far and with still sort of 2 months of
accounting to go, we've seen 14 $1 billion weather disasters
this year. I believe the previous highest number was 9. So
we're almost 50 percent higher this year than we've seen in any
year.
Senator Begich. I know just from Alaska's perspective that
the storm we just had--I mean, it was a big storm, earlier than
usual in the sense of the magnitude it had, and more damaging
because you have no ice buildup. You have no capacity to
protect against erosion. And that's still being analyzed in
Alaska. When we have erosion, it's not a few feet of ground
that disappears. It could be upwards of 50 to 70 feet inward,
inland that disappears, gone.
So it's an interesting pattern of weather we have now. As I
tried to explain to my son yesterday when our neighbor was
watering her plants, her flowers outside, as we turned on the
TV or Internet to check in with my wife where it just snowed
lots of inches of snow in Anchorage, and then Juneau just had a
record snowfall at this time of year, which doesn't make sense
for Juneau. They're trying to figure that one out. But it's
very different than it was in the past, that's for sure.
Thank you all very much. And again, this gave us a lot of
good information, a lot of opportunity to look at ideas, and
this last panel I really appreciate some of the innovation that
you all are doing in the private sector in organizations,
because that, I think, as we deal with the budget issues, we're
trying to find innovative ways to continue to make sure we have
robust weather prediction, and I think you all have offered
some good suggestions and some ideas and food for thought here.
So I think on behalf of both of us, we thank you very much.
The record will be open for 14 days for any additional
questions we may have that we might submit to you. But again,
thank you all very much, and at this time the meeting is
adjourned. Thank you very much.
[Whereupon, at 12:13 p.m., the hearing was adjourned.]
A P P E N D I X
Prepared Statement of John D. Rockefeller IV,
U.S. Senator, West Virginia
Today we will be examining the many important weather programs of
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). From the
streams of data provided by environmental satellites, to the severe
weather alerts of the National Weather Service, the products, services,
and warnings that NOAA provides benefit all Americans. Every day,
decisions are made based on NOAA weather information, whether it helps
one decide to carry an umbrella, or to seek life-saving shelter during
a storm.
This year has unfortunately shattered almost every weather record
imaginable in the United States. Record-breaking snowfall, cold
temperatures, extended drought, high heat, severe flooding, violent
tornadoes, massive hurricanes--all of these events have amounted to the
greatest number of multi-billion dollar weather disasters in our
nation's history. For each of these record-setting events, human lives
were lost, and entire communities and livelihoods were torn asunder.
Thinking of the many Americans harmed, I believe the public's need for
timely and accurate weather forecasts and emergency warnings could not
be more critical.
Though the hardships of many are devastating, the death and
destruction could have been far worse had it not been for the guidance
and expertise of NOAA scientists, meteorologists, and climatologists.
NOAA forecasts and warnings provided crucial lead times that protected
property and saved lives. In my own state of West Virginia, innovations
in forecasting have provided greater notice of flash flood events,
allowing people to better protect their property and evacuate safely
when needed. In times of emergency, minutes can save lives.
It's clear that NOAA atmospheric services are invaluable to all
Americans, yet this year in a terrible demonstration of irony the
agency's important functions have again been taken for granted. House
Republicans have repeatedly sought to slash NOAA's budget and prohibit
the agency from conducting basic research and weather observational
science. As a result of continued underfunding and programmatic delay
in NOAA's Joint Polar Satellite System, or JPSS, the nation faces the
likely loss of essential weather forecasting capability in the coming
years, because our current weather satellite capabilities will degrade
before JPSS is launched and becomes operational. Such a gap would take
our forecasting capabilities back decades, detrimentally hindering the
ability to warn the public about severe weather events. This penny
wise, pound foolish approach threatens to leave millions of Americans,
communities, and first responders without the life-saving forecasting
information we all expect and depend on to make timely decisions that
ultimately save lives. This is a risk we cannot afford. I believe we
must work now to mitigate the impacts of such a later gap in the most
responsible and cost-effective way possible.
I have also supported NOAA's good governance proposal to better
align the agency's atmospheric science and services. This would
continue NOAA's mission of providing reliable and accurate scientific
information and support services to a public looking for answers. This
is why we're here today. We must assess if current NOAA weather
services are meeting our growing needs. Where they are not, we need to
find ways to fill those gaps and push for innovation. And we need to
have a better grasp of the necessities of the future. This is not an
easy task, but I'm confident that our two panels of witnesses can help
us make a big step forward. I'm grateful to each witness for sharing
your testimony and expertise with the Committee.
______
Prepared Statement of Daniel A. Sobien, President,
National Weather Service Employees Organization
Thank you, Chairman Begich and Ranking Member Snowe, for inviting
the National Weather Service Employees Organization to submit written
testimony for the Subcommittee's hearing on the need for continued
innovation in weather forecasting and prediction. I am the Lead
Emergency Response Meteorologist at the Tampa Bay Area Forecast Office
and National President of NWSEO.
The 3,800 employees of the National Weather Service represented by
our union are pleased that the Subcommittee considers this issue one
worthy of attention. Our organization and its members have been
encouraging the National Weather Service to develop innovative
forecasting techniques, products and services for several years. I am
pleased to report that through collaborative labor-management efforts,
NWS and NWSEO have identified and are now in the early stages of
implementing nine pilot projects to deliver innovative weather services
to the Nation. We are also in the early stages of designing an
additional seven pilot projects to implement in 2012. In order to pay
for these projects and the additional forecasters that will be assigned
to them, the union and the NWS's Chief Financial Officer jointly
identified and agreed to efficiencies in current NWS operations and
expenses, that will free up $50 million over 5 years. These cooperative
efforts constitute a milestone in Federal sector labor-management
relations, and demonstrate how public employee unions can be part of
the solution to providing better services to the taxpayer despite tight
fiscal constraints.
Nearly two decades ago, the National Weather Service underwent a $5
billion modernization and restructuring. By all accounts this
modernization was a huge success; a recent National Academy of Sciences
report found the NWS modernization; ``allowed more uniform radar
coverage and surface observations across the United States.
Improvements were particularly evident in the forecasting and detection
of severe weather such as tornadoes and flash floods. The probability
of detecting these events improved over the course of, and after, the
MAR, and the lead times of the warnings increased.'' But since that
time, the agency has made only modest and incremental changes and
improvements in service delivery. Last year, however, the NWS tested a
pilot project to improve aviation forecasting services which it
referred to as the ``Golden Triangle.'' The NWS assigned three
additional forecasters--one per shift--at the New York, Chicago and
Atlanta Forecast Offices. These nine additional forecasters were
charged with providing air traffic controllers with real-time site
specific aviation forecasts. Within 3 months, the assignment of these
additional forecasters dedicated to aviation needs was responsible for
reducing weather related air traffic delays by 50 percent when compared
to periods of comparable weather in prior years. (See chart attached
hereto).
NWSEO and NWS used the success of this initial pilot as a basis for
developing other test beds as part of the NWS's ``Weather Ready
Nation'' initiative. Management and the union jointly solicited
suggestions and proposals for local offices across the nation; local
management and labor teams drafting proposals that were sent to the
national level where they were reviewed and refined by senior
management and union officials. The parties then agreed to move forward
with the following pilot projects, which will involve approximately 27
new positions at the nine offices involved:
A National Operations Center at NWS headquarters in Silver
Spring that will serve as a national incident command center
for multi-region or national large scale weather events;
respond to sudden and unexpected demands for services that
exceed NWS's local or regional resources; and liaise with other
Federal agency command centers and assist with public
information during large scale events.
A Regional Operations Command Center at the NWS Southern
Region headquarters in Fort Worth, Texas that will serve as an
incident command center for regional large scale weather events
and, among other products, prepare a twice daily Threat
Briefing Package.
An ``Impact-Based Decision Support Services'' program at the
Sterling, Virginia (Washington, DC) Forecast Office staffed by
three ``Emergency Response Meteorologists'' who will assist
local and state emergency management agencies to with response
to natural and man-made emergencies that have a weather related
component (i.e, terrorism, toxic chemical discharge, or severe
weather). One of these ``ER Mets'' will be embedded with the
Maryland Emergency Management Agency, one at the FEMA National
Capitol Regional Coordination office and the third will staff a
Decision Support Desk at the Sterling Forecast Office and will
support the needs of the Virginia Department of Emergency
Management. They will be dispatched to field locations during
emergencies to assist local authorities in decisionmaking in
which weather plays a factor.
A similar pilot program will be established at the New
Orleans Forecast Office consisting of three Emergency Response
Meteorologists who will test the provision of decision support
services to local and state authorities for events impacting
the coastal environment. This pilot will build on the
experience which the NWS gained in assisting Federal, state and
local authorities during the Deepwater Horizon spill. These ER
Mets will be prepared for dispatch to the site of disasters or
to local emergency management operation centers.
An ``Ecosystem Forecasting'' pilot at the Tampa Bay Forecast
Office will provide enhanced coastal forecasts for maritime
interests (i.e., oil platforms) and new ecosystem forecasts for
water temperature, salinity, currents and red tide.
Hydrological runoff forecasts will be issued to mitigate the
development and transport of harmful algal blooms. The
forecasters will also serve as emergency response
meteorologists for the Tampa area, which regularly hosts
national security events such as the Super Bowl, the World
Series and the 2012 Republican National Convention.
A ``Mesocale Science to Operations'' pilot will be
established at the Charleston, West Virginia Forecast Office
that will attempt to improve localized short-fused warning
lead-times of convective weather and flash flooding by applying
new research on mesoscale (intermediate scale weather)
forecasting techniques and models in an operational
environment. The goal will be to provide more specificity in
time and space in the forecasting of warning-level weather
events.
A pilot at the Boulder, Colorado Forecast Office will test
the integration of the work of the NWS's Space Weather
Prediction Center in Boulder to daily aviation forecasting.
The MidAtlantic River Forecast Center in State College,
Pennsylvania will test production of high resolution QPF
(Quantity of Precipitation Forecasts) in a digital format for
any point along rivers.
The ``Golden Triangle'' pilot project will be expanded into
San Francisco (Monterrey) Forecast Office in an effort to
reduce weather-related air traffic delays in the San Francisco
area.
Six of these pilot projects are in the early stages of staffing.
Staffing for the Boulder, State College and Monterrey projects may be
delayed until next year.
The NWS and NWSEO are in preliminary discussions about seven
additional pilot projects for 2012. Five of these pilots will be
located in ``tornado alley''--Kentucky, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma and
possibly North Carolina. The NWSEO and NWS jointly recognize that while
much progress has been made over the past few decades in warning the
public of tornado dangers, the capability of forecasters to give
adequate lead time, accuracy and intensity forecasts of the strongest
tornados is not adequate to allow the public to reach safety in many
circumstances. In addition urbanization of areas prone to these extreme
tornados has led to catastrophic situations such as the 2011 tornado
season with over 500 fatalities reported. These pilots will incorporate
the latest neighborhood scale modeling techniques in an attempt to
improve lead times and accuracies to a point where residents can be
evacuated from areas under a threat of extreme tornados. They will also
test the concept of Emergency Response Meteorologists utilizing the
latest communication technology to maximize warning effectiveness. Two
other pilots under discussion will involve tsunami mitigation outreach
efforts in Puerto Rico and the Pacific Northwest.
In addition to these national-level initiatives, regional NWS and
NWSEO officials have agreed to a number of new initiatives to improve
weather services in Alaska:
The Alaska Aviation Weather Unit has implemented a new
product called the Hazardous Weather Graphic that gives users
information not covered in regular aviation forecasts such as
solar activity that would cause jamming of communications;
debris expected from wind or fires in long term situations;
strong surface winds 3 days in advance and significant
turbulence or low level winds shear expected in heavily
trafficked areas. The AAWU will also be developing gridded
forecasts of wind shear, turbulence and icing and other
meteorological parameters up to 60,000 feet creating a ``3-D''
forecast.
The Alaska Region has added a Decision Support Meteorologist
in the Regional Office who has developed a social networking
site on Facebook to assist the public in getting weather
information during storms. The three forecast offices in Alaska
contribute to this site as well. The Decision Support
Meteorologist has enhanced communication between the NWS and
the Alaska Department of Homeland Security and Emergency
Management. An example is a daily conference call which he
organized between the forecast offices, the state emergency
management agency and the villages affected by the early
November storm.
A new forecast desk (and four additional forecasters to
staff it around the clock on a rotational basis) at the
Anchorage Forecast Office that will improve decision support
services as well as watches/warnings and aviation forecasts for
the forecast office's service area.
Marine satellite phones are being deployed at several
Weather Service Offices that allow the staff to receive calls
from ships in remote Alaskan waters. The staff will receive
marine observations from previously data-sparse waters in the
Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea, which will improved
forecast accuracy for those areas.
The operations of the Sea Ice forecasting desk at Anchorage
will be expanded to 7 days a week.
The creation of a experimental Arctic Ocean Offshore
Forecast from 60 to 200 nautical miles of the Arctic Coast of
Alaska. Until 5 years ago, this area was iced over nearly year
round. However, due to climate change, the Arctic Ice Pack has
melted and there is now much open water in this area during the
summer. This forecast in being developed in anticipation of
further melting which will result in the movement of commercial
ventures (oil exploration, shipping) into the area.
Our members appreciate the support of the National Weather Service
that Congress has shown by full funding of the agency for Fiscal Year
2012. We hope we can count on your support for our efforts at
innovation.
______
Response to Written Question Submitted by Hon. John D. Rockefeller IV
to Hon. Mary M. Glackin
Projected Gap in Polar-orbiting Satellite Data
Question 1. In November, my staff met with Mary Kicza, Assistant
Administrator for NOAA satellites. She was unable to indicate concrete
steps that NOAA was taking to deal with the likely gap in satellite
data, beyond the drafting of a Request for Proposal (RFP), to be issued
by NOAA only after the loss of satellite capacity occurs. NOAA has
repeatedly stated that full funding is necessary to minimize any gap,
but recent reports even if the program received full funding going
forward, a gap is still likely to occur. Shouldn't NOAA be pursuing a
dual track of securing funding for JPSS while simultaneously
proactively exploring opportunities to mitigate the forecasted loss of
data?
Answer. There are no viable operational alternatives in the event
that Suomi NPP (S-NPP) fails before JPSS-1 becomes operational. Neither
the Department of Defense nor the Europeans, our well-established
operational partners, fly weather satellites in the afternoon orbit.
However, NOAA is taking several steps to plan for gap mitigation.
First, the Assistant Administrator of NESDIS has tasked her team to
look at ways of maximizing the life of S-NPP starting now. This
includes conditioning the batteries, minimizing heat stress, minimizing
fuel use, etc. The Suomi NPP satellite is flying the same instruments
that will fly on JPSS-1. Second, NOAA will take a second look to
determine if there is any way to move up the launch date of JPSS-1. At
this point, moving up the launch date of JPSS-1 may not be possible
simply due to the fact that it takes a certain amount of time to
actually build the satellite and put it through the various testing
required before launch.
Third, NOAA is also assessing other international missions, such as
the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Feng Yun 3B (FY-3B)
satellite that is currently flying in the afternoon orbit with
instruments similar to NASA EOS legacy satellites, however, the data
will need to be analyzed to ensure it is of a quality comparable with
current data streams. Currently, there are no other countries that are
flying microwave sounders in the afternoon polar-orbit. NOAA will
continue to assess whether other U.S. and international government or
private sector satellites are launched that could provide the type of
data that are needed for NOAA's numerical weather prediction models.
Fourth, NOAA will take a look at whether there are different, non-
traditional ways of using data that we have not done before. To that
end, the NOAA Administrator has directed NOAA's Assistant Secretary for
Environmental Observations and Prediction to develop a written,
descriptive, integrated, end-to-end plan that considers the entire flow
from candidate alternative sensors through data assimilation and on to
forecast model performance. She is assembling a team that includes
independent technical consultants to make an enterprise-wide
examination of contingency options that could be exercised in the event
of a gap in polar satellite observations. This will include the use of
alternative observations (from, e.g., other satellites or in situ
instrumentation), changes in data assimilation and/or modeling methods
and so forth. The work being initiated by the NESDIS Assistant
Administrator, mentioned above, will be included in this larger
enterprise-wide assessment.
In addition, NOAA's National Weather Service is looking into ways
to mitigate the impact to weather forecasts should a gap in polar
afternoon orbital coverage occur. Unfortunately, many of those
forecasts use Numerical Prediction Models as a primary input, these
models rely heavily on polar data and there is no getting around the
fact that any gap in polar coverage would impact the accuracy of model
outputs.
Question 2. Given that a significant gap in satellite coverage in
2016 and 2017 is almost a certainty, what other types of data and
infrastructure can NOAA utilize to ensure continuity in weather and
climate forecasting capabilities?
Answer. NOAA assimilates many types of observational data (e.g.,
satellite-derived observations, radar, aircraft observations, weather
balloon profiles of the atmosphere, surface observations across the
country, marine observations from buoys, ships, etc.) into numerical
weather prediction (NWP) models. These models generate weather
guidance, or weather forecast simulations via operational
supercomputers, which are used by forecasters to provide accurate and
reliable forecasts from hours to several days in advance. Despite
NOAA's numerous sources of observational data, data from polar-orbiting
satellites are unique because they provide global coverage that cannot
be replaced by in situ data. Loss of polar-orbiting satellite data
would result in degradation in forecast skill beyond day one for
regional prediction and day three and beyond for global prediction.
NWS has assessed the impact to operations and all possible
mitigations for the expected gap between Suomi NPP and JPSS. While we
will continue to leverage our current data streams, there are no viable
operational alternatives that will cover the projected data gap in the
afternoon orbit that will occur due to the delayed launch of the first
JPSS-1 satellite in the afternoon orbit. Neither Department of Defense
nor the Europeans, our well established international partners, fly
weather satellites that would provide global data in the afternoon.
Question 3. While recognizing the budget-constrained environment,
what steps is NOAA taking to identify and secure alternate types of
technology and infrastructure that aren't satellite-based?
Answer. Weather and climate forecasts and warnings use integrated
observations from different systems such as satellites, radars, weather
balloons, automated surface observing systems, and coastal weather
buoys. NOAA operates a suite of computer weather models from global
models to regional scale models to high resolution local scale models.
For regional prediction and forecasting, loss of satellite data can be
partially mitigated through surface-based remote sensing, aircraft, and
in-situ data.
Satellite data cannot, however, be replicated through ground
observations. Any loss in satellite observations will decrease NOAA's
ability to protect lives and livelihoods from extreme weather events.
Polar-orbiting environmental satellites provide global coverage and
other systems provide local in situ observations. Ninety four percent
of data assimilated into numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is
from satellites and 84 percent is from polar-orbiting satellites.
Polar-orbiting satellites provide data required for Global NWP models
needed for weather forecasting
Through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), NOAA will
continue to utilize access to worldwide data from the WMO's 189 member
states and territories including ground stations and radiosondes. WMO
facilitates the exchange, processing and standardization of
observational data between its members. NOAA will continue to leverage
this resource.
Prioritization of NOAA's Climate and Weather Data Collection Activities
Question 4. How does NOAA incorporate the needs of natural resource
managers, policymakers, and the private sector when determining what
types of weather and climate data it will collect?
Answer. NOAA's observation requirements are derived from the data
needs of NOAA's operational and research programs which support
Nation's operational need for weather forecasting and environmental
monitoring. NOAA actively works with external partners such as the
Department of Homeland Security, Department of the Interior, Department
of Transportation to ensure that their mission needs are reflected in
NOAA's mission requirements. NOAA's data policy of full, free, and open
exchange of data facilitate the wide use of NOAA data by domestic and
international users. NOAA continues to encourage the use of these data
by these users. The NWS' mission is to provide weather, water, and
climate data, forecasts and warnings for the United States, its
territories, adjacent waters, and ocean areas for the protection of
life and property and enhancement of the national economy. NWS
regularly collaborates with users of these end products. To the extent
possible, NWS incorporates other user needs as data are collected and
processed; NWS makes the data available for open and unrestricted use,
unless specific non-disclosure agreements are in place when private
data sources are used.
An example of NOAA's incorporation of external partner needs is the
Weather-Ready Nation initiative--a collaboration of government
agencies, researchers, and the private sector to:
Improve precision of weather and water forecasts and
effective communication of risk to local authorities;
Improve weather decision support services with new
initiatives such as the development of mobile-ready emergency
response specialist teams;
Provide innovative science and technological solutions such
as the nationwide implementation of Dual Pol radar technology,
Integrated Water Resources Science and Services, and the Joint
Polar Satellite System;
Strengthen joint partnerships to enhance community
preparedness;
Work with weather enterprise partners and the emergency
management community to enhance safety and economic output and
effectively manage environmental resources.
Question 5. What types of weather and climate data are given
highest priority, and why?
Answer. No one type of weather or climate data is given highest
priority. Weather and climate forecasts and warnings use integrated
observations from different systems as varied as satellites, radars,
weather balloons, automated surface observing systems, and coastal
weather buoys. The mix of observations also depends on the weather
event being monitored. For example, the instruments used to monitor a
hurricane versus a tornado are quite different. Also, different
observations are required depending on how far out the forecast is in
time. Short term weather forecasts would be more likely to utilize a
combination of radar data, geostationary satellite data, and other
surface observing data whereas weather forecasts further than three
days out would rely more heavily on polar satellite data, and climate
forecasts depend on observations from the Tropical Ocean Array data
buoys as well as a suite of other technologies. While 94 percent of
data assimilated into numerical weather prediction models are from
satellites and 84 percent is from polar-orbiting satellites, the
quantity of observations does not necessarily reflect a priority of
importance.
Question 6. Are there any types of data that public or private
sectors routinely request from NOAA that are currently not being
collected by the agency?
Answer. In general, no. However, while NOAA can supply
meteorological data for a given weather station on a given date or over
time, that data may not be representative of a nearby location of
interest to a third party. It is common knowledge that weather can be
quite variable over short distances, and additional information and
analysis may be needed to adequately describe the weather at the
secondary location. NOAA views this as a private sector role. (see more
at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/im/ and http://www.noaa.gov/
partnershippolicy/)
NWS primary responsibility is to collect and process data needed to
meet NWS mission requirements. The NWS' mission is to provide weather,
water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the United States,
its territories, adjacent waters, and ocean areas for the protection of
life and property and enhancement of the national economy. To the
extent possible, NOAA works to accommodate the needs of our other
external partners, but our primary responsibility remains to provide
forecasts to the American public to protect lives and property. NWS
makes the data available for open and unrestricted use, unless specific
non-disclosure agreements are in place when private data sources are
used.
NOAA continues to explore opportunities to partner with private and
public and international environmental observational networks.
Proposed Climate Service
Question 7. In the FY 2012 President's budget request for NOAA, the
agency proposed a reorganization of its existing climate related
programs, which are currently housed in multiple NOAA line offices,
into a single line office. NOAA says that this will result in a line
office dedicated to climate research in the same way that the Weather
Service line office is dedicated to weather research. Since the Climate
Service is purported to be ``budget neutral'' and will not add any new
programs, in what ways would reorganization improve NOAA's climate
science services?
Answer. Building on efforts initiated in the previous
Administration, NOAA proposed reorganizing climate resources into a new
line office, the NOAA Climate Service Line Office, in the President's
Fiscal Year (FY) 2012 budget. This proposal was not included in the
final FY 2012 Appropriations Act that President Obama signed in
November 2012.
Question 8. Would new activities be undertaken within this proposed
Climate Service in the future? If so, what types of activities would be
anticipated?
Answer. The proposal to reorganize NOAA's climate resources into a
new line office was included in the President's FY 2012 budget request;
however, it was not included in the FY 2012 Appropriations Act that
President Obama signed in November 2012.
Question 9. Some have raised concerns that a NOAA climate service
would be rigid, jurisdictionally narrow, and inherently non-
collaborative, given it being housed in one agency. How is NOAA
addressing these concerns to ensure its proposed climate service could
effectively address the diverse needs of multiple agencies,
jurisdictions, and stakeholders?
Answer. The proposal to reorganize NOAA's climate resources into a
new line office was included in the President's FY 2012 budget request;
however, it was not included in the FY 2012 Appropriations Act that
President Obama signed in November 2012. As a sound steward of American
taxpayer dollars, NOAA will continue to work as efficiently and
effectively as possible under our current organizational structure and
within the resources we are provided to meet the growing public demand
for information--including access to NOAA's information assets, and
enabling improved information sharing and more productive partnerships
with a broader enterprise that includes: Federal agencies, local
governments, private industry, other users, and stakeholders.
Leveraging Private Sector Capabilities
Question 10. Several witnesses today spoke about the benefits that
NOAA and the private sector share when leveraging each other's weather
data. For example, Bob Marshall highlighted the value of a national
comprehensive weather observing system--an integrated network or
meteorological sensors that complements and enhances NOAA's own array
of sensors--so as to provide more accurate and faster warning
capabilities throughout the country. Similarly, the National Research
Council professed the same benefits of a National Mesonet in their
report ``From the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks.''
However, NOAA has never requested funding for a National Mesonet.
For the past few years, the Senate has understood the potential of such
a partnership by including funding the National Mesonet in NOAA's
annual appropriation bills. Out of a roughly $1 billion budget for the
National Weather Service, the National Mesonet has only accounted for
$8 million to $19 million. It appears that at the most, that's 2
percent of NOAA's budget for what has amounted to a relatively
significant increase in weather data capacity for NOAA. Why has NOAA
not requested funding for the National Mesonet?
Answer. The President's Budget reflects the Administration's
highest priorities for maintaining NOAA's weather observing systems and
assets. NOAA recognizes the value of leveraging data from local
observing networks or ``mesonets'' which provide denser, local scale
detail of the weather and environment. This information can be
effectively used to improve short and local forecasts in areas with
this local data. NWS will use FY 2012 funding to convene a peer-
reviewed study to develop a plan for NOAA's role in a National Mesonet,
with recommendations for implementation as appropriate.
Question 11. Please explain whether NOAA has--or has not--achieved
value in this public private partnership.
Answer. NOAA recognizes the value of leveraging data from local
observing networks or ``mesonets'' which provide denser, local scale
detail of the weather and environment. This information can be
effectively used to improve short and local forecasts in areas with
this local data. Mesonet system data are used in NWS operations as
supplemental data sources. Mesonets are broadly consistent with the
spirit and recommendations of From the Ground Up, in that they provide
the types of observations that augment NWS's ability to detect,
forecast, and warn for localized, high-impact weather events. NOAA will
continue its current approach to developing a National Mesonet by
leveraging existing networks (operated by state and local governments,
the private sector, and other Federal agencies), when and where
available.
A key to successfully leveraging existing data is to gather and
provide detailed and enhanced metadata (``data about the data'').
Question 12. The Commerce Committee remains strongly committed to
the success and swiftest possible implementation of the Joint Polar
Satellite System. However, it is clear to me that we must
simultaneously continue to invest in additional, cost-effective
innovations to ensure a weather-ready nation. As we face the gap in
polar-orbiting weather satellite coverage, how will NOAA better
integrate data and information from public private weather
partnerships, such as the National Mesonet, to augment--or even
improve--forecasts and warnings? Specifically, will NOAA incorporate
data from the lightening mapper that Mr. Marshall spoke about in his
testimony into NOAA's models? If not, why not?
Answer. NOAA applauds the Committee's recognition of the importance
of investing in cost-effective innovations to ensure a Weather-Ready-
Nation. While there are no viable operational alternatives that will
cover the projected data gap that will occur due to the delayed launch
of the first JPSS-1 satellite in the afternoon orbit, NOAA will
continue to work with the private sector to obtain mesoscale
observations whenever possible and cost-effective. For example, NOAA is
working with the renewable energy sector to investigate the use of
local scale data in NWS numerical weather prediction models to provide
more accurate and timely weather forecasts that can be used by both NWS
forecasters and private sector forecasters.
Mr. Marshall references the GOES-R Lightning Mapper (GLM), which
will provide total lightning data (cloud-to-ground and in-cloud
flashes) for the entire Western Hemisphere, complementing and expanding
beyond existing ground-based systems. NWS currently obtains mainly
cloud-to-ground lightning data from terrestrial networks. NOAA is
assessing other research-based terrestrial systems which provide total
lightning data. Total lightning data offers more information about
storm severity and structure than cloud to ground lightning data and
continuous monitoring of total lightning flash rate from the GLM is
expected to improve tornado and severe storm warning lead time and
improve hurricane track and intensity forecasts. Total lightning data
from this research is used to simulate the data that will come from the
GLM. Researchers are in turn using this simulated data in different
local scale numerical weather prediction models to assess potential
forecast improvement particularly in data-sparse regions where radar
and other observations are not available.
In order to continue to improve weather forecast skill, NOAA is and
will continue to invest in the science of better understanding
environmental processes, improved modeling and data assimilation, and
the supporting computing infrastructure.
______
Response to Written Questions Submitted by Hon. Maria Cantwell to
Hon. Mary M. Glackin
Spectrum
Question 1. The National Telecommunications and Information
Administration (NTIA) evaluated four spectral bands currently in
government use for possible `Fast Track' reallocation for wireless
broadband service within the next five years. One spectral band they
considered was the 1675-1710 MHz band used for downlinks from
geostationary and polar-orbiting weather satellites that are
administered by NOAA. This weather data is directly accessed by any
number of Federal, state, and tribal government first-responder
agencies in support of their missions. Additionally, foreign polar
satellites also transmit signals to the United States in this band
under international agreements.
NTIA recommends that ``15 megahertz (MHz) of the 1675-1710 MHz
(specifically 1695-1710 MHz) spectrum could be made available for
wireless broadband use within five years, contingent upon timely
allocation of funds to redesign the Geostationary Operational
Environmental Satellite-R satellite and other costs the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other Federal
agencies will incur in connection with sharing this spectrum.''
Please provide the list of actions NOAA needs to take over the next
five years in order for the agency to share the 1695-1710 MHz band with
the wireless broadband service? How much will these actions cost? How
will they be paid for? How far along is NOAA in its planning
activities? In particular, what is the potential impact on design,
development, and deployment of JPSS?
Answer. NOAA currently operates a number of polar-orbiting and
geostationary operational environmental satellites in the 1675-1710 MHz
range. NOAA and its European mission partner, the European Organization
for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), operate
polar satellites using identical direct broadcast imagery systems in
the 1695-1710 MHz band. Assets that are currently in orbit cannot be
retrofitted to change the transmission frequency. NOAA expects
replacement satellites to be launched by 2017 for the Joint Polar
satellite System and 2015 for the Geostationary Operational
Environmental Satellite-R Series.
In November 2010, the Department of Commerce, through its National
Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) and working
with other impacted Federal agencies, including NOAA, concluded a
months-long analysis in response to the President's June 2010 Broadband
Initiative. In the report, Assessment of the Near-Term Viability of
Accommodating Wireless Broadband Systems in the 1675-1710 MHz, 1755-
1780 MHz, 3500-3650 MHz, and 4200-4220 MHz, 4380-4400 MHz Bands (Fast-
Track Report), the Department recommended--and has formally proposed to
the Federal Communications Commission--that a 15-megahertz portion of
the band, 1695-1710 MHz, be made available for commercial use within
five years, in a manner that protects critical government sites via
exclusion zones. The exclusion zones would protect key earth station
sites, including NOAA's operational facilities, to minimize the
likelihood of interference. Devices or reception sites that operate
outside of these exclusions could face interference.
NOAA is also participating in an NTIA-led engagement process with
industry to develop options for repurposing this spectrum that
maximizes its commercial use, while protecting essential NOAA
capabilities. This may include more detailed interference modeling,
which could allow for smaller exclusion zones, moving downlinks to less
populated areas or other options.
NOAA expects additional costs from redesigning observational
systems and technical studies related to potential interference issues.
NOAA is still evaluating the potential cost impacts and costs would be
incorporated into its transition plan as required by the Middle Class
Tax Relief and Job Creation Act of 2012. Examples of modifications that
would entail additional costs include:
GOES-R: NOAA's next generation geostationary satellite program
(GOES-R), which is currently under development for launch mid-
decade, redesigned its direct broadcast communications
subsystem to move below 1695 MHz to comply with the spectrum
sharing regime identified in the Fast-Track Report. Changes to
current contracts were executed and costs paid using GOES-R
Program contingency funds.
Radiosondes: As a result of the GOES-R redesign, NOAA's
radiosondes (balloon-borne instruments for atmospheric
measurements) require redesign to reduce spectrum usage in time
to support the GOES-R redesign. Redesign of NOAA systems
attributable to making the frequency available for auction is
expected to be paid for by auction proceeds.
Additionally, NOAA is eligible for funding for certain pre-auction
planning costs, consistent with the terms articulated in the Middle
Class Tax Relief and Job Creation Act. Funding from the Spectrum
Relocation Fund, where proceeds from auctions of spectrum previously
used by Federal agencies is held, is contingent upon approval by a
technical panel, comprised of representatives of NTIA, OMB and the
Federal Communications Commission, of a NOAA transition plan. NTIA is
creating the procedures for the panel now and NOAA is working with NTIA
to develop its transition plan.
Question 2. My understanding is that NOAA intends to establish
wireless radio `exclusion zones' surrounding satellite downlink sites
to help minimize the impact to meteorological services from harmful
interference. How many exclusion zones are being proposed? What are the
sizes of the exclusion zones? How practical is this approach? Do you
believe use of exclusion zones will diminish the relative value of the
spectrum?
Answer. In the report, Assessment of the Near-Term Viability of
Accommodating Wireless Broadband Systems in the 1675-1710 MHz, 1755-
1780 MHz, 3500-3650 MHz, and 4200-4220 MHz, 4380-4400 MHz Bands (Fast-
Track Report), the Department recommended--and has formally proposed to
the Federal Communications Commission--that a 15-megahertz portion of
the band, 1695-1710 MHz, be made available for commercial use within
five years, in a manner that protects critical government sites via
exclusion zones. The exclusion zones would protect key earth station
sites, including NOAA's operational facilities, to minimize the
likelihood of interference.
The report proposed exclusion zones around 18 Federal ground
stations, of which five are critical to NOAA meteorological satellite
operations. The other 13 sites are non-NOAA U.S. Government user
locations. The exclusion zones proposed for protection of these five
ground stations range in size from 90 km to 121 km. Proposed zone size
varies from site to site due to differences in receiver
characteristics, topography and other factors.
NOAA is not well-positioned to assess the relative value of the
spectrum. However, NOAA is participating in an NTIA-led engagement
process where Federal agencies and industry are working together to
develop options for repurposing this spectrum that maximizes its
commercial use, while protecting essential NOAA capabilities. This may
include more detailed interference modeling, which could allow for
smaller exclusion zones, moving downlinks to less populated areas or
other options. Also, the model used to determine the exclusion zone
sizes proposed in the Commerce report did not fully consider anomalous
propagation because it was not clear whether this effect is applicable
when considering the aggregate interference from a deployment of
geographically dispersed commercial handset as analyzed in the Fast
Track Report. Through the NTIA process, NOAA will have a better
understanding of the technical and deployment parameters of the
commercial systems and the potential risks to in-band and adjacent band
earth station receivers. Based on the additional information for the
commercial systems further modeling may be necessary before an auction
or license conditions to clarify NOAA's protections.
Question 3. Are you concerned that there may be out of band
emissions from wireless devices operating in the 1695-1710 MHz band
that may impact the operations of radiosondes (weather balloons) and
sensors (many of which are unlicensed) in the 1675-1695 MHz band? If
so, what steps can NOAA take to help minimize the impact of harmful
interference?
Answer. Yes, out-of-band emissions are always a concern for
operational impacts. NOAA radiosondes operate on National
Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) authorized
(licensed) frequencies. Out-of-band interference analyses will be
performed as part of the radiosonde system redesign process. Any out-
of-band interference concerns will be brought to the attention of the
NTIA Interdepartment Radio Advisory Committee (IRAC) so that the
concerns can be addressed during the NTIA/FCC process for reallocation
of the 1695 to 1710 MHz band. NOAA will also improve the receiver out-
of-band rejection performance as part of the radiosonde system redesign
effort, when funding for repurposing the existing Federal allocation
becomes available.
JPSS
Question 4. How long can NOAA wait to launch JPSS-1 before our
weather modeling systems begin to suffer?
Answer. NOAA currently estimates that JPSS-1 will launch no later
than the second quarter of FY 2017. As such, NOAA cannot afford to have
any further slips to the JPSS-1 launch date without further increasing
the already high risk of a loss of data for numerical weather
prediction (NWP) models and impact to the accuracy of National Weather
Service forecasts and warnings.
The Suomi NPP satellite is currently expected to provide suitable
data for weather forecasting through mid-2016. Assuming Suomi NPP
provides data as planned, there is a high probability of a gap in data
from the afternoon orbit from the end of the Suomi NPP mission until
JPSS-1 has completed its in-orbit calibration and validation phase.
NOAA is utilizing its resources to ensure that the launch date for
JPSS-1 does not slip any further. In the absence of data from the
afternoon orbit from an operational polar-orbiting satellite such as
either NOAA's POES or Suomi NPP satellites, there will be an immediate
degradation to the National Weather Service's numerical weather
prediction (NWP) models.
Question 5. Will the geostationary satellite system (GOES-R)
maintain weather prediction at or near current levels during the gap in
JPSS coverage? If not, how will coverage now be different during the
gap including GOES-R in your analysis?
Answer. The instruments on the current Geostationary Operational
Environmental Satellite (GOES) cannot be used as a substitute for
future Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) mission data needs and
requirements. NOAA GOES and Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental
Satellite (POES)--JPSS is a POES satellite--constellations were
developed to provide complementary space-based data to meet NOAA's
weather, ocean, space weather and climate mission.
GOES does not provide the global coverage that POES provides. GOES
satellites cover the Western Hemisphere that includes eastern Pacific
to the western Atlantic and from southern Alaska to South America. The
imagers and sounders on GOES satellites are optimized to provide the
coverage that is required for a geosynchronous orbit (i.e., providing
environmental data over fixed geographic regions). Data from GOES
satellites, in conjunction with Doppler radar, are used for
``nowcasting'' severe weather events as they unfold; POES data cannot
provide the same constant observations that GOES provides.
Polar-orbiting satellites (current POES and the future JPSS) circle
the Earth longitudinally from the North Pole to the South Pole and
provide environmental data at periodic intervals over the entire globe.
These global measurements are vital for the accuracy and reliability of
the National Weather Service's computer weather models that forecast
the weather at 3 days and beyond. Additionally, polar-orbiting
satellites provide satellite imagery over data -sparse areas like parts
of Alaska above 60 degrees latitude. Access to these data has proven
critical to protecting the people of Alaska and the U.S. Pacific
Insular Areas because GOES satellites are unable to image accurately in
those areas.
In conclusion, NOAA's polar orbiting and geostationary satellite
systems provide mission critical, complementary data that is minimally
redundant. NWS needs both the global coverage and higher resolution of
polar orbiting satellites, and the ``constant look'' of the
geostationary satellites to provide the full spectrum of short-term
weather warnings to long-term forecasts.
Question 6. In preparation for the gap in weather satellite
coverage, is NOAA working with military, other governments and/or
corporations, which have weather satellite capability to meet the
United States weather prediction needs?
Answer. There are no viable operational alternatives which will
cover the projected data gap in the afternoon orbit that will occur due
to the delayed launch of the first JPSS-1 satellite and the end of life
of Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) in the
afternoon orbit. Neither Department of Defense nor the Europeans, our
well-established operational partners, fly weather satellites in the
afternoon orbit.
NOAA is also assessing other international missions, such as the
China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Feng Yun 3B (FY-3B) satellite
that is currently flying in the afternoon orbit with instruments
similar to NASA EOS satellites.
NOAA will continue to assess whether other U.S. and international
government or private sector satellites are launched that could provide
the type of data that are needed for NOAA's numerical weather
prediction models.
In addition, NOAA's National Weather Service is looking into ways
to mitigate the impact to weather forecasts should a gap in polar
afternoon orbital coverage occur. Unfortunately, many of those
forecasts use Numerical Prediction Models as a primary input, these
models rely heavily on polar data and there is no getting around the
fact that any gap in polar coverage would impact the accuracy of model
outputs.
Question 7. We learned from NOAA that there has been internal
reallocation of funding to meet the immediate funding needs of the JPSS
program. How much funding was reallocated to JPSS?
Answer. The FY 2011 Consolidated Appropriation bill amount
continued the FY 2010 funding level of $382.2 million for the JPSS
Program. The Administration determined, and the Congress approved, an
additional $89.7 million for the JPSS Program in the FY 2011 Spend Plan
for a total of $471.9 million. The total of $471.9 million represents
the amount NOAA established for the program in FY 2011.
In FY 2012, the Congress appropriated $924 million of the
President's Budget Request of $1.070 billion for the JPSS Program. In
FY 2013, NOAA requests $916.4 million for the JPSS Program.
Question 8. Which program or line offices had funding redirected to
meet the needs of the satellite program? How much funding did each of
these program or line offices loose?
Answer. The Administration's FY 2011 spend plan for JPSS is $471.9
million from funds appropriated to the Department of Commerce by PL
112-10. Given the importance of JPSS in maintaining the Nation's
weather prediction capabilities, NOAA received Congressional approval
to allocate that amount to JPSS for FY 2011 to support critical work on
the spacecraft, instruments, and mission operations and sustainment
activities. A portion, $39.8 million, of the $89.7 million increase in
FY 2011 for the JPSS program was provided though a transfer from other
bureaus within the Department of Commerce.
Question 9. Did any of these programs impact critical data required
for fisheries management: observer coverage, stock assessment data, or
ship time?
Answer. The FY 2011 Spend Plan represents a comprehensive strategy
that aims to address multiple and interrelated missions of the agency.
We believe that all of these missions have considerable value to the
Nation. Given the importance of JPSS in maintaining the Nation's
weather prediction capabilities and with Congressional approval, NOAA
chose to allocate $471.9 million to the JPSS program for FY 2011 to
support critical work on the spacecraft, instruments, and mission
operations and sustainment activities.
Core fisheries research and management activities funded by NMFS
are supported by the Fisheries Research and Management sub-activity.
Between FY 2010 and FY 2011 funding for this sub-activity increased by
$5.6M ($432.9M and $438.5M respectively). This funding supports NMFS
Regional Science Centers which provide the scientific knowledge base
for the management and rulemaking process supported by NMFS Regional
Offices and Regional Fishery Management Council and Interstate Marine
Fisheries Commissions, which are also supported with this funding.
Funding is also included specifically for stock assessments and survey
and monitoring projects which provide data on abundance, distribution,
and biological characteristics of fish stocks, the scientific basis for
setting annual catch limits and other fishery management measures.
The NOAA fleet provides the base data collection platforms to
support fisheries research and management. The FY 2011 spend plan
funded the NOAA fleet to allow for maximum utilization in FY 2011
without the need for Program Funded Days at Sea. FY 2011 actual base
funded Days at Sea were 2,609. This is an increase from FY 2010 base
funded Days at Sea of 2,395.
Dual Polarization Doppler Radar Installation and Early Lessons
Question 10. Over the last two years, NOAA was appropriated $9
million to acquire and install a coastal Doppler radar in Washington
state.
Please quantitatively describe how the new dual polarization
Doppler radar has improved weather prediction and forecasting in
Washington state.
Answer. The NEXRAD program is a tri-agency effort between NOAA/
Department of Commerce (DOC), The Department of Defence (DOD), and the
Federal Aviation Administration in the Department of Transportation.
The new Dopplar radar installed in Western Washington State is an
example of excellent synergy between NOAA and DOD. Key NEXRAD assets
for this project were transferred to NOAA/NWS from the DOD Keesler, MS,
Air Force Base maintenance and training facility, which no longer had
the requirement for the equipment.
This is the first winter in which dual-polarization radar (dual-
pol) data are available. NWS will continue to analyze the data and
quantify the radar's contribution to improved weather prediction.
However, qualitative benefits are already known. For example, the
coastal radar has been used to issue and refine high wind warnings
along the coastal zone. In one case, the radar indicated stronger winds
than expected from the forecast models and provided the knowledge
necessary for the forecaster to put up the warning before the winds
hit. The dual-pol capability has allowed the NWS to detect the
transition from rain to snow near the surface and accurately detect the
elevated warm layer needed to form freezing rain or sleet. During the
19 January ice storm, NWS forecasters were able to better detect the
developing event (leading to Emergency Alert System activation) and
were able to monitor the freezing rain intensity and location with
frequent updates to the emergency management community.
The coastal radar has improved our forecast and warning capability
for areas that previously did not have radar coverage. The new radar
also provides NWS forecasters with estimated location/intensity/amounts
of precipitation in areas of Southwest and Coastal Washington that
previously were terrain blocked to other radars. We believe the
improved understanding of rainfall amounts and snow level has already
provided information for more accurate flood forecasting than would
have been provided if the new radar was not in place.
Question 11. Some local weather programs, such as Seattle's Storm
Watch, are not yet incorporating the new dual polarization Doppler
radar data. Is NOAA working with small local weather forecasters to
ensure effective and timely use of dual polarization data?
Answer. NOAA provides the operational dual-pol and legacy radar
data in real-time through multiple data access points and providers.
Our partners are encouraged to use these data in application
development and in providing commercial services. Specifically
regarding the new radar data in Washington State, the data are going
directly to the University of Washington and they are processing and
posting them to a live web page for others to use. They are also
currently assessing the value of adding these new data to their Rain
and Snow Watch programs. NOAA stands ready to assist them in this
process. To help private sector/media meteorologists and non-
meteorologists understand how to use dual-pol, NOAA developed an on-
line dual-pol training module series. The local WFO is also working
with local media to provide ``lessons-learned'' training following this
first winter season.
Question 12. How is the new Doppler radar funding pushing national
weather prediction and modeling forward? In other words, how are
algorithms developed for the Washington state dual-pol Doppler radar
being utilized nationally?
Answer. Precipitation algorithms developed for the Washington dual-
pol radars will be employed by all the radars in the west and
mountainous region. The precipitation algorithms are specific to
western radars and mountainous terrain, and useful for orographic
(mountain) precipitation situations. Algorithms for rain/snow
delineations are useful nationwide. Other algorithms are more useful in
the plains states and used for tornado detection.
Question 13. In addition to acquiring the new Doppler, Washington
state is now the first state to have complete dual polarization Doppler
radar coverage. How is NOAA handling this new influx of data? Has NOAA
acquired the super computers required to adequately employ this new,
high quality data into weather prediction models?
Answer. The additional data from the dual polarization capability
is incorporated into the national radar network and used by local NWS
forecast offices and NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
The existing NWS Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)
has the capacity to handle this additional data, and the data is used
by the forecasters and incorporated into their forecasts and warnings.
No additional supercomputing resources are necessary for this data.
Since radar commissioning, NOAA has been collecting, distributing, and
archiving data from the new Washington radar similar to other network
radars and making the data available to the public and all users. NOAA
continues to develop the capability and capacity to include data from
the Doppler radar network into its computer models. The data are most
useful in NOAA's short-range models and are being incorporated at this
time.
______
Response to Written Questions Submitted by Hon. Amy Klobuchar to
Hon. Mary M. Glackin
Improvements to Timely and Relevant Forecasting and Prediction
Question 1. One of the biggest impacts NOAA has on my state is
making sure that communities have up to the date and accurate weather
information. Floods are an annual issue for communities across
Minnesota, and last year we led the Nation with 145 confirmed
tornadoes. That's more than Kansas and Nebraska combined. We are not
supposed to be number one in this category. Will the work that NOAA is
doing help us to not only better predict and prepare for severe
weather, but also help understand and develop new weather trends that
may be developing?
Answer. Yes. NOAA invests in the prediction and understanding of
the environment. NOAA's National Weather Service strives to
continuously improve operational weather, water and seasonal climate
watches, warnings and forecasts by investing in advanced technologies
including models, supercomputers, observations and leveraging other
NOAA investments and partner's investments. NOAA's Office of Oceanic
and Atmospheric Research invests in research and development of the
next generation science and technology for weather and climate
prediction including understanding new developing weather trends. NOAA
also leverages and relies on a national and international investment in
weather and climate science including academia, government agencies,
and non-governmental organizations. These investments enable the Nation
to better prepare for and respond to severe environmental events.
Question 2. Is the science for flood forecasting continuing to
improve, or have we reached a plateau for the accuracy of our flood
forecasts?
Answer. Advancements in hydrological science and service delivery
enable continuing improvement in flood forecasting lead times and
accuracy. NOAA's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) provides
the Nation with improved forecast and decision support tools including
scenario based uncertainty information at more than 3000 specific
locations along the Nation's rivers and water ways. NOAA's Community
Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS), a new and advanced open software
architecture hydrological modeling system will become operational in FY
2012. These technologies are among the suite of tools that will enable
NOAA to continue to improve flood and flash flood forecast skill. In
addition, ongoing nationwide deployment of dual polarization of the
NEXRAD (Next-Generation Radar) network in FY 2012 and 2013 will enable
improved estimates of precipitation type and amount, leading to better
flash-flood forecasts and warnings.
In order to explore further opportunities for improving water and
flood forecasting, NOAA is working to leverage interagency investments.
In 2009, NOAA, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Army
Corps of Engineers (USACE) launched a new partnership called the
Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS). In May 2011,
this partnership was formalized through a Memorandum of Understanding
signed by the three agencies. Specifically, NOAA seeks to accelerate
flood forecasting skill and create flood maps over a larger geographic
region by leveraging USACE's Core Water Information Management System
(CWMS) flooding and inundation modeling capability and USGS' WaterSMART
National Water Information System.
On September 22, 2011, NOAA announced the award of a contract to
build a new National Water Center (NWC) in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, which
will be ready for initial occupancy in mid-2013. The NWC will create a
first-of-its-kind national center for water forecast operations,
research and interagency coordination. The NWC will be staffed by
multiple Federal partner water agencies to ensure strong coordination
and collaboration. The NWC will be the nerve center for coordinated
water resources forecasts and decision support from floods to droughts
and minutes to years.
Interagency Coordination
Question 3. In Minnesota, whether it's flooding or tornadoes, we
also work closely with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
How does NOAA affect disaster response efforts by Federal agencies such
as FEMA?
Answer. NOAA/NWS works with the Department of Homeland Security
(DHS), including FEMA, to prepare for, and respond to disasters. NWS
provides weather information to emergency response decision makers at
multiple organizational levels as critical decisions are made in
anticipation of and in response to weather or water events. NWS has a
liaison position embedded at FEMA Headquarters as well as at the DHS
National Operations Center to coordinate weather from a national
perspective and provide decision support services. NWS also provides
on-site support to FEMA Regional Headquarters Offices when damaging
weather is expected. NWS provides specific webinars to impacted state
and local emergency management offices, if resources cannot be provided
for on-site support in the field. NWS support for FEMA and state and
local emergency management continues after the event to ensure response
efforts have the weather information available when they make their
decisions.
Question 4. Are there ways we can improve coordination, so that we
can identify possible extreme weather events quicker, and respond to
them in a timelier manner?
Answer. NWS will continue to improve its forecast and warnings,
including possible extreme events. For FY 2012, NWS is beginning six
pilot projects as part of NOAA's Weather-Ready Nation Initiative
designed to improve coordination for the emergency management community
and to improve effective response by the public and business community
as necessary. These pilot projects will help set the direction for NWS
services of the future to better meet its protect life and property
mission.
______
Response to Written Questions Submitted by Hon. Olympia J. Snowe to
Hon. Mary M. Glackin
Question 1. In a particularly troubling section of the Inspector
General's report, the report describes the efforts of both the National
Weather Service's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
as well as the National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information
Service (NESDIS) (pronounced NEZ-diss) to seek solutions to the
anticipated data gap in the afternoon polar satellite orbit.
While it is positive that efforts are being made to mitigate the
risk of a data gap, the report also noted that there was ``little
evidence that these efforts are being tracked or coordinated across
NOAA's line offices.'' NOAA has agreed with the recommendation to
increase coordination across line offices and take a ``NOAA-wide''
view. To what do you attribute this communication breakdown between
line offices? What specific steps are being taken to remedy it?
Answer. We do not believe there has been a ``communication
breakdown between line offices,'' nor did the report state that there
was a breakdown. Instead, NCEP, NWS, and NESDIS had been focusing on
their own priorities, reflecting the high visibility of internal
efforts to clarify and quantify the impact of the potential data gap
within each NOAA Line Office. The Office of NOAA's Deputy Under
Secretary for Operations continually works across NOAA Line Offices to
discuss and establish plans to address possible gaps in polar coverage
to minimize the degradation of weather and climate forecasting.
The decision to end the NPOESS Program in 2010 and initiate the
JPSS Program has resulted in the need to modify the means by which
coordination occurred.
With the JPSS Program NOAA is engaging in a wide-ranging dialogue
about the importance of data from NOAA's satellites to meet NOAA's
missions and goals. This dialogue has received high visibility since
many of the measurements are used by NOAA programs in conjunction with
external partners. There has been, and continues to be, constant
programmatic and scientific coordination among the NOAA Line and
Program Offices. Examples of these coordination activities include:
NOAA Program Management Council (PMC): The PMC provides the
forum for regular review and assessment of selected NOAA
programs and projects. All NOAA Line-Offices are represented.
Environmental Satellite Users Group (ESUG): The ESUG is a
recently reorganized user collaborative forum comprised of
operational and research users of environmental satellite data.
Participants are from the NOAA Line and Program Offices, the
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the U.S.
Air Force, the U.S. Navy, and the European Organisation for the
Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT).
NOAA Observing System Council (NOSC)/Low earth-Orbiting
Requirements Working Group (LORWG): The NOSC is a forum for
coordinating earth observing and environmental data management
activities across NOAA. The LORWG manages the key requirements
documents for the NOSC, which includes the JPSS Program's Level
1 Requirements Document.
Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA): JCSDA
is a forum dedicated to developing and improving the ability to
exploit satellite data more effectively in the United States.
Representatives include senior leaders from NOAA, NASA, the
U.S. Air Force, and the U.S. Navy.
NOAA/NESDIS Satellite Products and Services Review Board
(SPSRB): SPSRB is responsible for the oversight and guidance
necessary to effectively manage the satellite product life
cycle process. This process ensures satellite products are
provided to all NOAA Line Offices, a wide range of Federal
government agencies, international users, state and local
governments, and the general public.
To ensure Line Office coordination continues to provide a NOAA-
wide/enterprise mitigation effort on the potential data gap, NOAA
Administrator Jane Lubchenco, NOAA's Deputy Administrator Kathryn
Sullivan, and myself as the Deputy Under Secretary for Operations, have
initiated dialogue between NOAA Line and Program Offices through
multiple meetings including the PMC, the NOSC, and one-on-one meetings
with senior managers.
Recently, the Assistant Administrator for Satellites and
Information Services initiated directed requests for input from fellow
Assistant Administrators and Program Office Directors seeking input on
their space-based data requirements from all the systems in NOAA's
satellite portfolio.
Question 2. One of the potential risks that could cause a gap in
polar satellite data continuity would come from the NPOESS (EN-pose)
Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite, which was just launched on October
28, or its sensors, failed prior to the launch of the JPSS-1 satellite,
now estimated to occur five years from now in early 2017. A June report
by the NASA Inspector General reported that the NPP sensors may only
last three years because of problems in the development and testing of
these sensors that compromised their integrity. These sensors were
supposed to last seven years because the satellite was expected to
operate for five years. Does NOAA agree with the Inspector General's
assessment that there were workmanship issues with the NPP satellite's
sensors?
Answer. NPP was initially designed as a research and risk reduction
spacecraft and was tested to NASA standards consistent with a five year
mission life. NPP was pressed into operational service due to slips to
the NPOESS program.
The three year life expectancy identified in the NASA Inspector
General report is consistent with the full mission success criteria in
the NPP Level-1 Requirements. NASA chose three years as the NPP mission
success criteria for NPP due to concerns about residual risk remaining
in the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), Cross-track
Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and Ozone Mapper Profiler Suite (OMPS)
instruments and that the development and testing of the NPOESS
Integrated Program Office (IPO)-developed NPP sensors were not
subjected to NASA's standards or oversight. The evaluation for mission
success also includes engineering judgment based on factors such as
first-of-its-kind sensors and first space use of 1394 communications
bus, which added to NASA's concerns about the life expectancy of those
sensors.. Recall that these sensors (VIIRS, CrIS, and OMPS) were
developed under the oversight and management of the now-closed NPOESS
IPO using Department of Defense acquisition methodologies and delivered
to NASA's spacecraft contract for integration onto the NPP satellite.
While there were well documented development, testing and
workmanship issues with some of the sensors, each issue was eventually
addressed either through design changes, or rework and testing methods
that were agreed to by the contractors and the government, and were
based on proven practices and processes.
NOAA plans to use the NPP satellite operationally and requires the
satellite to provide usable data for at least five years. Currently
these sensors are being calibrated and initial data sets are being
validated.
______
Response to Written Question Submitted by Hon. Roger F. Wicker to
Hon. Mary M. Glackin
Question 1. The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), and the
predecessor the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental
Satellite System (NPOESS), has faced concerns regarding cost overruns
and timeline slippage. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has
reported that NOAA has not finalized their plans or fully implemented
the recommendations from previous GAO reports. What is NOAA currently
doing to reduce costs for the JPSS project to meet the $9.4 billion
budget established by Congress?
Answer. The appropriations bill adopts by reference all House and
Senate report language regarding JPSS with the exception of the Senate
report language regarding the lifecycle cost cap of $9.4 billion.
Instead, the conferees direct NOAA to provide outyear funding estimates
for this program prior to the submission of the Fiscal Year 2013 budget
request. We have made great strides within the limits of the budget
shortfalls to successfully launch NPP, to have its ground system become
operational, and to continue to move forward on the development of the
instruments and bus for JPSS-1. Moving forward, we recognize the
importance of efficiently allocating scarce resources and are working
with NASA to determine the best available options for maintaining a
Life-Cycle Cost through FY 2028 of $12.9 billion or less for the JPSS
program.
NOAA has recently submitted a response to GAO recommending closure
of its previous recommendations regarding the transition of the NPOESS
program.
Question 2. How will the potential gap in weather data from
satellites impact the ability of NOAA to provide accurate hurricane
warnings which coastal communities rely on to keep their residents
safe?
Answer. Hurricane warnings are typically issued when a storm is
forecast to make landfall within 36 hours. By this time, operational
forecasters rely on model forecasts that incorporate data from
hurricane reconnaissance aircraft, both the Air Force Reserve
``hurricane hunters'' and the NOAA P3 fleet and Gulf Stream IV
aircraft. These data are critical to NOAA's immediate hurricane warning
mission. The polar orbiting satellites provide data most essential to
longer range forecasts of the hurricane track and intensity,
particularly when storms are over the central or eastern Atlantic
Ocean. Loss or degradation of these satellite observations will make
NOAA forecasts less certain at the 3-5 day and beyond range, and hamper
evacuation planning efforts that require significant lead time on the
order of days, such as is needed for Key West, Florida, or the U.S.
Navy facility in Norfolk, VA.
Question 3. Are NOAA weather data used to study storms
retroactively (storms in the past)?
Answer. Yes. NOAA scientists conduct post analysis on storms to
understand how the atmosphere and waterways responded to the storms and
incorporate these lessons learned into operations to provide improved
forecasts and warnings of future events. Universities and the private
weather enterprise also use NOAA data to conduct their own research
into storms.
Question 3a. What can NOAA gain from looking at storms in hind-
cast?
Answer. NOAA scientists learn how the atmosphere and oceans behaved
under those particular circumstances and incorporate these lessons
learned into operations to improve forecasts and warnings via model
improvements. Should such atmospheric conditions arise in the future,
operational forecasters can use their knowledge of what happened during
these past storms and incorporate their newly found knowledge into
forecast models that aid them in issuing more reliable warnings. Much
of the historical improvement in storm track, storm intensity, and lead
time, including hurricane forecasts, has come from careful analysis of
historical storms, including efforts to improve models by forecasting
previous storms better.
Question 4. Can you summarize our Nation's current public and
private efforts in place today to collect and study weather related
data?
Answer. The Nation's efforts to collect and study weather data take
many forms. NOAA is the source of foundational data for a diverse set
of services provided by the media and by others in America's weather
industry. These services contribute to public safety and to economic
efficiency. NOAA also receives a wide variety of data from others,
e.g., satellite data from EUMETSAT and weather model data from other
modeling centers including the United Kingdom, Canada, and the European
Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
NOAA and Federal efforts focus mainly on larger scales, while state
and local governments, universities, and the private sector have built
infrastructure to monitor smaller scales. NOAA has access to much of
the data from these non-federal sources, and is working on data rights
issues with the private sector to ensure market viability for these
companies is not compromised by NOAA's use of their data. Some
companies charge NOAA for the data, others provide it for free, with
limited redistribution rights. NOAA also works with the aviation
community to obtain weather data from aircraft, which is used by NOAA
computer weather models to analyze and predict the weather.
Question 5. How does NOAA leverage private investments in weather
observations and forecasting to ensure that Federal dollars are being
optimally utilized?
Answer. Observations are critical to NOAA's mission. NOAA makes use
of all available data, either international, federal, state, local
government funded, university funded, or private sector data, whenever
data rights issues can be addressed. NOAA is not duplicating others'
efforts for observing systems, but is accessing and using these data.
For example, NOAA works with the aviation community to incorporate
weather data from aircraft into NOAA analysis and forecast models. Non-
federal data are quality controlled by NOAA to ensure data quality and
integrity (e.g., mesonet data ingested through NOAA's Meteorological
Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS)).
Question 6. Going forward, what priority does NOAA and the National
Weather Service place on facilitating continued open access to
taxpayer-funded weather data and research?
Answer. NOAA has always maintained open access to its data for the
public. NOAA provides these data and associated products without
seeking reimbursement because these products are considered a public
resource and part of NOAA's core mission. The NOAA Partnership for the
Provision of Environmental Information [http://www.noaa.gov/
partnershippolicy/] has at its core existing Federal policies for
providing taxpayer-funded data and information. NOAA data and
information are essential for the protection of life and property and
enhancement of the national economy. NOAA will always place a very high
priority on providing open access to this taxpayer-funded information.
Question 7. How do you see the National Weather Service's role
evolving over time with respect to the incorporation of the private
sector?
Answer. The National Research Council of the National Academies of
Science published a report in 2003 entitled ``Fair Weather: Effective
Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services.'' This report laid the
foundation for improved partnerships between the private, public and
academic sectors, broadly describing the roles of each sector,
recognizing that collaboration and discussion best facilitates future
services and changing boundaries. Open discussion of NOAA plans for
future services allow the academic community to focus research and
training efforts while the private sector can build its business model
knowing the direction NOAA is headed. NOAA's mission relates to
protection of life and property and providing NOAA observations and
forecasts, which have broad general value for many users. Many users of
weather information require specific, tailored information which NOAA
does not have the resources to provide, nor should it. For example
shipping companies require detailed forecasts, and the private weather
support companies use NOAA information to determine where ships need to
be re-routed. Construction companies may require detailed continuous
forecasts for their work and large retailers may use tailored forecasts
for shipping certain products for sale in stores, (e.g., generators in
the path of ice storms or hurricanes). Providing these tailored
forecasts for specific user needs to obtain a market advantage is the
role for the private sector. NOAA cannot provide all weather products
and services to all those who need specific services, and NOAA relies
on the private sector to communicate lifesaving information to the
public. NOAA is working with the private sector to provide the
information in industry standard formats to make it easy for the
private sector to use. There is a symbiotic relationship between the
sectors, and the current climate of open discussion seems to be working
well.
Question 8. How could the further expansion of public-private
partnerships to collect weather related data ease the burden on the NWS
and allow it to focus on the continued collection of core weather data
necessary for public safety?
Answer. NOAA will continue to use all available data to ensure the
best possible forecasts and warnings for the protection of the public.
NOAA will expand the public-private partnerships whenever possible,
however recognizing that the private sector is a business, and its
primary goal is to turn a profit. The Federal government has the core
mission to protect its citizens and ensure public safety. NOAA will
explore and leverage all opportunities, including those with the
private sector that improve the economy and efficiency of the
organization and provision of weather services.
______
Response to Written Questions Submitted by Hon. John D. Rockefeller IV
to Hon. Todd J. Zinser
Solutions to Projected Gap in Polar-orbiting Satellites
Question 1. Just a few months ago, the OIG released a report after
a comprehensive audit to assess the adequacy of the JPSS program. Among
the key findings, the report confirmed that a coverage gap will occur
and weather forecasts will be degraded with a disruption in climate
data. Given that a gap in polar-orbiting satellite coverage is now
inevitable, what do you think are NOAA's best options for keeping up
its weather and data capabilities during this time?
Answer. As noted in our audit report, we recommended that NOAA
should coordinate efforts across its line offices to minimize the
degradation of weather and climate forecasting during coverage gaps. A
NOAA-wide view will help senior management ensure the adequacy of
efforts and facilitate improvements.
In response to our report's recommendation, NOAA stated it is
developing an integrated strategy to obtain and sustain foreign partner
opportunities. It is also establishing a commercial assessments
initiative to determine what polar data it can acquire commercially.
Key considerations NOAA requires the commercial sector to demonstrate
include:
an ability to provide sustained and uninterrupted
observations, based on operational requirements;
compliance with NOAA's data policy for full and open
exchange of data;
technical feasibility to acquire and deliver the
observations in a reliable and timely manner; and
affordability of operations and cost-effectiveness to
the government.
Question 2. Based on your findings, do you think NOAA is doing
everything it can to minimize gaps in important climate and weather
data?
Answer. No, as noted in our report, NOAA is not doing everything it
can to minimize gaps in important climate and weather data. In response
to our report, NOAA stated it is developing an integrated strategy to
minimize gaps in climate and weather data from the afternoon polar
orbit. However, NOAA's strategy must ensure that senior management at
NOAA and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) program, through close
management of the program, take steps to prevent additional slippage in
the schedule. We believe NOAA needs to focus their planning in the
following areas:
Finalizing a program baseline that includes costs,
schedule, and requirements--and keeping the Department and
Congress informed of the program's performance against that
baseline. In doing so, the JPSS program should prioritize
all requirements and contingencies in order to maintain the
current planned launch date.
Coordinating across the agency to develop
contingencies for a coverage gap. For example, scientists
who work for the National Weather Service (NWS) need to
work with the scientists from the National Environmental
Satellite, Data, and Information Service to develop options
for using data from all available sources to compensate for
the loss of afternoon polar satellite data. We are
concerned that there has not been a coordinated approach to
the problem across NOAA's lines of businesses--and that
there should be.
Question 3. Additionally, Committee staff recently received a
briefing from NOAA's Assistant Administrator for Satellite and
Information Services, Mary Kicza, about options to fill the coverage
gap. She mentioned that the JPSS program is the only way the Nation can
maintain weather data continuity and any investment in alternative
solutions would be taking critical funds away from JPSS. Have you
spoken with NOAA officials about non-satellite options? What was their
response?
Answer. Yes, we spoke with NOAA officials about non-satellite
options. During our recent audit fieldwork, NOAA did not identify any
non-satellite options to fill the coverage gap.
However, NOAA told us that it has agreements (in place or being
considered) with other agencies and foreign partners to obtain
satellite data. In addition, we interviewed NOAA's National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) leadership. Anticipating a gap in data
from the afternoon orbit, NCEP told us they have been working with the
Department of Defense to improve the data from satellites in the early-
morning orbit. Additionally, NCEP is working to use data from NOAA's
next-generation geostationary satellite, which is currently scheduled
to launch in October 2015. According to NOAA, however, NWS does not
believe this data would mitigate the loss of polar satellite data from
the afternoon orbit.
Question 4. Are you aware of any non-satellite options for
minimizing the continuity gap?
Answer. At this point in time, we are not aware of any non-
satellite options for minimizing the data continuity gap in the
afternoon polar orbit.
______
Response to Written Question Submitted by Hon. Amy Klobuchar to
David C. Trimble
Question. Agriculture is a major driver of Minnesota's economy,
producing $18 billion dollars worth of products. Farmers make planting
and harvest decisions based on weather forecasts. How can improved
weather forecasting provide better tools for farmers and ranchers, and
help fuel this important sector of our economy?
Answer. As we reported in October 2009 (GAO-10-113), climate change
is a complex, crosscutting issue that poses risks to many existing
environmental and economic systems, including agriculture,
infrastructure, ecosystems, and human health.\1\ According to the
National Academies and others, greenhouse gases already in the
atmosphere will continue altering the climate system into the future,
regardless of emissions control efforts. Therefore, adaptation--defined
as adjustments to natural or human systems in response to actual or
expected climate change--is an important part of the response to
climate change. We reported that insufficient site-specific data, such
as local projections of expected changes, makes it hard to predict the
impacts of climate change and thus hard to justify the current costs of
adaptation efforts for potentially less certain future benefits.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Climate Change Adaptation: Strategic Federal Planning Could
Help Government Officials Make More Informed Decisions, GAO-10-113,
(Washington, D.C.: Oct. 7, 2009).
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Federal actions to provide and interpret site-specific information
would help address this challenge. For example, based on the responses
by a diverse array of Federal, state, and local officials knowledgeable
about adaptation to a web-based questionnaire designed for our October
2009 report, about 80 percent (148 of 185) of respondents rated the
``development of processes and tools to help access, interpret, and
apply available climate information'' as very or extremely useful.
Decision makers will need tools to interpret what regional and local
climate data mean for activities like farming and ranching. In
addition, about 61 percent (107 of 176) of respondents rated the
``creation of a Federal service to consolidate and deliver climate
information to decisionmakers to inform adaptation efforts'' as very or
extremely useful.
In our October 2009 report, we recommended that the appropriate
entities within the Executive Office of the President, such as the
Council on Environmental Quality and the Office of Science and
Technology Policy, in consultation with relevant Federal agencies,
state and local governments, and key congressional committees of
jurisdiction, develop a national strategic plan that will guide the
Nation's efforts to adapt to a changing climate. We are monitoring the
government wide implementation of this recommendation by the
Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force, co-chaired by the
Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ), the Office of Science and
Technology Policy (OSTP), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), and including representatives from more than 20
Federal agencies.
______
Response to Written Question Submitted by Hon. Olympia J. Snowe to
David. C. Trimble
Question. While NPOESS was disbanded because the interagency
management approach among Department of Defense, NOAA and NASA made it
difficult to prioritize the requirements of three agencies, recent
testimony by the GAO before two House Subcommittees raises concerns
that the lack of interagency strategy for environmental observations
may actually result in an inefficient approach that does not address
the priorities of additional Federal research priorities, and could
ultimately limit our ability to understand long-term climate change.
Given the budget uncertainties that we face, if interagency
applications are now being limited, do you believe the division of
NPOESS into two separate programs is still the best approach to meet
both civilian and military data requirements as cost-effectively as
possible?
Answer. At the time of the White House's decision to disband the
National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System
(NPOESS) program, the program was at risk of not meeting the near-term
satellite data needs for military or civilian users. The program's
expected cost had more than doubled and there was a clear expectation
that costs would continue to grow. Further, an independent review team
reported that there was a very small probability of success if the
management of the program were to continue as it was. Now, almost 2
years after the decision to disband NPOESS, a gap-filling environmental
satellite is in orbit and is expected to provide satellite data needs
through 2016. However, it is not yet clear what will be delivered, by
when, and at what cost on either of the NOAA or DOD follow-on programs.
NOAA expects to establish cost and schedule baselines on its Joint
Polar Satellite System (JPSS) by July 2012, and it is not clear how DOD
will proceed with its Defense Weather Satellite System (DWSS). Given
our current budget uncertainties, it is not clear that the current
approach will meet requirements cost effectively. We have ongoing work
assessing these programs.
______
Response to Written Question Submitted by Hon. Roger F. Wicker to
Rear Admiral Cari B. Thomas
Question. How will U.S. Coast Guard rescue and response efforts be
impacted if NOAA experiences a decrease in satellite function?
Answer. The loss of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration's (NOAA's) geostationary or polar-orbiting satellite
data would have a cascade effect throughout the oceanographic and
meteorological modeling community and their ability to provide high-
resolution, accurate models of present and future on scene conditions
required by the Coast Guard for Search and Rescue (SAR) response and
Marine Environmental Response. The Coast Guard SAR response relies upon
accurate and timely forecasts of the oceanographic and meteorological
conditions.
By tapping into the Environmental Data Servers through its SAR
Optimal Planning Scenario, Coast Guard SAR planners are able to access
the meteorological numerical models for:
(a) Sea Surface Currents,
(b) Sea Surface Winds,
(c) Waves (height, direction and period),
(d) Visibility,
(e) Sea Surface Temperature,
(f) Sea Surface Air Temperature,
(g) Sea Surface Air Pressure, and
(h) Ice Coverage.
NOAA's geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite constellations
provide oceanographic and meteorological models that the Coast Guard
uses for forecasting on-scene conditions necessary to plan searches.
These models provide SAR planners with meteorological and ocean
conditions, surface currents and wind data to accurately estimate the
drift of survivors and survivor craft. Additionally, timely accurate
weather forecasts are critical to identifying potential risks during
operational planning to ensure the safety of the Coast Guard personnel
that are responsible for conducting our missions.
In its role as the Federal On-Scene Coordinator (FOSC), the Coast
Guard is responsible for ensuring the cleanup of spills of oil and
hazardous substances in the coastal zone. The FOSC depends heavily on
NOAA and its cadre of Scientific Support Coordinators (SSC) for
providing timely and accurate information related to the trajectory and
environmental fate of a spill. The SSCs typically obtain and process
this critical information from the wealth of data provided by NOAA's
satellite constellation. The resulting forecast models or real-time
pictures are critical for decisionmaking by the FOSC and Unified
Command during a spill.
Lastly, if a decrease in satellite function impacts NOAA satellites
carrying SAR repeaters (which receive and retransmit the 406 MHz
distress signal) or SAR Processors (which transmits 406 MHz distress
signal real-time), this will most likely result in a coverage gap and
SAR planners may see a substantial increase in the length of time it
takes to receive distress alert(s). These coverage gaps/delays will
ultimately delay SAR response efforts and will continue to exist until
the new SAR/Global Positioning System becomes fully operational
(expected sometime between Fiscal Years 2018-2020).
______
Response to Written Questions Submitted by Hon. John D. Rockefeller IV
to Tom Iseman
Access to Climate and Weather Data
Question 1. How does NOAA disseminate their climate and weather
data to state and local entities such as the WGA? Please provide
examples.
Answer. NOAA employs a range of tools and partnerships to
disseminate weather and climate information, ranging from weather
forecasts and websites to on-the-ground engagement with states, private
sector and local communities.
The most visible form of outreach is television and radio, and
specifically the local weather forecast, where NOAA's National Weather
Service field offices provide information on day to day conditions.
Citizens tune into their forecast every day to decide whether to bring
an umbrella or how long their morning commute might be.
Another tool is websites, like weather.gov, climate.gov, or
drought.gov (which was a direct outgrowth of our partnership on the
National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)). These websites
are designed to collect and aggregate relevant information and to make
it available as a `one-stop shop' for states and users. They allow
interested viewers to find a range of information and to focus on
geographic or topical issues of interest. However, these are passive
services that require some user initiative and knowledge to exploit.
NOAA also provides periodic Climate Outlook Forums. In these
forums, NOAA experts provide the latest climate forecasts to interested
users, and they are available for dialogue and Q&A with the audience.
These vary in geographic and temporal scale, from an annual climate
outlook for the Nation to a seasonal climate outlook for a particular
region of interest, for example, drought in the Southwest or flooding
in the Upper Missouri.
Finally, NOAA works directly with states and local users to engage
in the development of information services, for example in the case of
``Early Warning Systems'' being developed by NIDIS. In these cases,
NOAA works with stakeholders to understand the key weather and climate
variables of interest for a relevant geography, and they ``co-develop''
a system to monitor and report on those variables over time. NOAA's
Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISAs) conduct
stakeholder-driven research needed to inform these systems at the scale
of watersheds, cities, and local communities where managers make
decisions. Early Warning Systems are being developed for the Upper
Colorado River, the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint Basin in the
Southeast, and the ongoing drought in the Southern U.S.
These are the services that WGA is trying to promote through its
MOU with NOAA: regional services that more actively engage states and
other on-the-ground stakeholders in the identification and development
of new tools to track and respond to key weather and climate events. By
engaging states and other stakeholders, tools will address the key
issues of interest--like how drought may affect a municipal water
supply, or when flooding may delay the shipping of goods by rail, or
whether infrastructure design criteria are sufficient to address severe
storm events--and will be more widely adopted and employed than
national websites. We recognize that regional, stakeholder-designed
services may require additional resources and time; however, they are
the best way to address the regional variability inherent in climate
and its impacts to on-the-ground decisionmaking.
Question 2. What concrete improvements can be made to increase
access to this information?
Answer. While portals like drought.gov have broad utility and
should be continued, we support efforts to promote more active,
stakeholder-initiated services that address key regional priorities.
Regional systems provide a targeted assessment of key indicators, along
with the expertise and resources to interpret and apply them to on-the-
ground decisionmaking. Regional systems can stimulate efforts to plan
and prepare for climate and weather events, rather than simply
responding after the fact. We want to get to the point where a farmer
uses the seasonal outlook to decide whether to plant certain crops, or
a water utility uses long-range snowpack projections to design new
infrastructure--just like you or I listen to the weather forecast to
decide whether to carry an umbrella.
We recommend a rigorous assessment of existing regional early
warning systems, including those developed under NIDIS, to inform the
design and implementation of future efforts.
______
Response to Written Questions Submitted by Hon. Roger F. Wicker to
Dr. Peter P. Neilley
Question 1. Public-private partnerships to improve weather data
collection not only ease the burden on Federal agencies, but also
create jobs and bolster the economy. How does The Weather Channel
Companies build upon baseline NOAA weather data to provide higher
resolution forecasts for specific geographic regions?
Answer. The Weather Channel Companies builds upon baseline NOAA
weather data to provide value-added services to consumers and
businesses in many ways that serve the weather needs of the Nation.
Increased resolution is just one significant enhancement. However,
there are many other dimensions of value-adding that we perform. These
include providing forecasts in formats that consumers can easily
acquire and utilize; operating a 7x24 cable television network;
building consumer-friendly weather applications for the Internet and
mobile devices; providing forecasts for specific business needs and
personal interests; creating more accurate and timely forecasts; and
providing an overall satisfying engagement experience for our consumers
and clients.
We are able to achieve this with a laser focus on the needs and
interests of our viewers and clients that results in provisioning the
weather content that they need and can act on. We accomplish this by
making specific investments in people, jobs, technology and products
that use foundational weather datasets from NOAA and others and then
improve upon those data using proprietary scientific methods. For
example, one forecasting method that we have developed and deployed
starts by ingesting all of the computer-based (numerical weather
prediction) forecasts created by NOAA, and augments these with similar
forecasts purchased from other countries and our own computer-generated
forecasts. We then use a complex artificial intelligence based
statistical engine to distill all of these different computer forecast
``opinions'' into a final forecast optimized for accuracy and relevance
to the particular application.
Our ability to create such value-added products and services is
critically dependent on the foundational data from NOAA. It would not
be possible for The Weather Channel Companies or any other private
entity to build and operate networks of weather radars across the
country, fund and operate fleets of weather satellites, or capitalize
the vast supercomputing facilities used by NOAA. It is critical that as
nation we continue to appreciate and invest in these foundational
weather services from NOAA so that companies such as The Weather
Channel can continue to provide the best possible weather services for
our Nation.
Question 2. How can the public-private partnership process be
improved to promote effective collaborations?
Answer. First, it is important to recognize that there have been
tremendous gains in the degree of cooperation and collaboration between
NOAA and the weather and climate industry in the past decade or so.
Guided heavily by the groundbreaking 2003 report by the National
Research Council ``Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and
Climate Services'', there have been numerous formal institutions
created (e.g., The NOAA Science Advisory Board's Environmental
Information Services Working Group) that promote and sustain effective
partnerships across our Nation's weather and climate ``Enterprise''.
Critically important in these advancements has been the deep
recognition within NOAA of the essential need for strong partners in
order to serve the Nation and meet the mission of NOAA's National
Weather Service (NWS). For example, the NWS could not fulfill its
mission of protecting life and property without an effective
cooperation with private-industry in order to publish time-critical
warnings of impending severe weather.
In order to promote effective public-private partnerships in the
Nation's weather enterprise, it is important that the participants in
the enterprise continue to recognize the particular strengths and
assets that each constituent of the enterprise has and that those
strengths and assets be leveraged and fostered so that our Nation
receives maximum benefit and value and all players in the partnership
remain strong. In particular, NOAA should continue to consider where
the private sector may be better able to serve the weather needs of the
Nation and leverage those strengths in order to serve the Nation most
effectively and efficiently. For example, the private sector has proven
very agile in the development of a rich set of weather information
applications for digital and mobile devices and hence the need for NOAA
to consider creating similar functionality may not only be unnecessary
but likely decrease the value the enterprise provides to the Nation
possibly disrupt the established partnership balance.
A specific area where NOAA could help strengthen the partnership is
to work with the private sector and others outside of NOAA to find ways
to gain access to the vast sets of NOAA weather data that are currently
created but for which practical considerations make them inaccessible
outside (and often times even inside) of NOAA. For example, the
National Centers for Environmental Prediction division of the NWS
produces high-resolution and high-frequency forecast data that must be
filtered significantly before publication via the Internet outside of
NOAA. If it were possible for the private sector to place value-adding
computer servers inside of NOAA to process the high-resolution data,
valuable and skillful forecast content could be derived from those data
to help serve the Nation's needs better. This is an example of the Open
Weather and Climate Services paradigm that was recently endorsed by the
NOAA Science Advisory Board and passed onto NOAA for consideration.
Embracing the adoption of the Open Weather and Climate Services
paradigm by NOAA will significantly advance the partnerships and the
products and services provided.
Question 3. Does The Weather Channel Companies currently have
operations in the Northern Gulf of Mexico to improve hurricane
forecasts and better determine impacts on coastal communities?
Answer. The Weather Channel provides weather services for the
entire nation. We are continuingly investing in operations and
technologies that provide improved services for all of our consumers
and clients. For the most part, our approach is to improve all
forecasts and services that cover a range of weather types and
locations. However, we recognize the significant impact that hurricanes
can have along our Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal communities and
accordingly invest materially in being sure that state-of-the-science
forecasts and communication services are available to those that might
be threatened by tropical cyclones. In general when such storms
threaten a specific community or region we shift our resources to
ensure that the best, most-timely and most accurate weather information
is conveyed to those in the storm's path.
______
Response to Written Questions Submitted by Hon. Roger F. Wicker to
Robert S. Marshall
Question 1. Public-private partnerships to improve weather data
collection not only ease the burden on Federal agencies, but also
create jobs and bolster the economy. How does Earth Networks build upon
baseline NOAA weather data to provide higher resolution forecasts for
specific geographic regions?
Answer. Earth Networks ingests all NOAA weather data and
incorporates it into Earth Networks products and services. In addition
to NOAA weather data, Earth Networks also operates its own observation
networks (surface weather stations, lightning sensors and a weather
camera network). By integrating both NOAA data and proprietary Earth
Networks data into our products and services we are able to provide
high resolution and very local forecasts and warnings for our
customers.
Question 2. How can the public-private partnership process be
improved to promote effective collaborations?
Answer. There are two sides to the public/private partnership that
exists between NOAA and private sector weather companies. The side
where private sector companies ingest NOAA data and distribute it with
value added products to specific users is working relatively well.
The second side of the partnership where NOAA ingests and uses data
from private sector observation networks is not working as well. For
reasons that are not completely apparent, NOAA has not fully embraced
this model despite solid recommendations to do so by the NRC in its
2008 report, ``From the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks''.
In the challenging budget times that exist today and will continue for
the foreseeable future, it is more critical than ever that NOAA embrace
this form of the public/private partnership to cost effectively obtain
observations that it needs to fulfill its mission of protecting life
and property. NOAA should develop a peer reviewed plan and budget to
achieve a National Mesonet. The plan should be developed in conjunction
with and embrace private sector and academic institutions that operate
observing assets that can support NOAA's mission.
Question 3. Does Earth Networks currently have operations in the
Northern Gulf of Mexico to improve hurricane forecasts and better
determine impacts on coastal communities?
Answer. Yes, Earth Networks operates a number of weather
observation stations along the northern gulf coast and on oil platforms
in the gulf. Further, the Earth Networks Total Lightning Networks
covers a significant portion of the entire Gulf of Mexico. These
observation assets as well as those of other private and academic
network operators in the region have the potential to improve hurricane
forecasts and will clearly improve the ability to determine impacts on
coastal communities.