    [Senate Hearing 109-768]
    [From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]

                                                            S. Hrg. 109-768

                     OVERVIEW OF THE 2006 HURRICANE SEASON

    =======================================================================

                                    HEARING

                                    before a

                              SUBCOMMITTEE OF THE

                COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS UNITED STATES SENATE

                           ONE HUNDRED NINTH CONGRESS

                                 SECOND SESSION

                                   __________

                                SPECIAL HEARING

                          JUNE 7, 2006--WASHINGTON, DC

                                   __________

             Printed for the use of the Committee on Appropriations

      Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/congress/
                                   index.html

                        U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
    30-871                      WASHINGTON : 2007
    _____________________________________________________________________________
    For Sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office
    Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov  Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; (202) 512�091800
    Fax: (202) 512�092250 Mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402�090001

                                   __________

                          COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS

                      THAD COCHRAN, Mississippi, Chairman
    TED STEVENS, Alaska                  ROBERT C. BYRD, West Virginia
    ARLEN SPECTER, Pennsylvania          DANIEL K. INOUYE, Hawaii
    PETE V. DOMENICI, New Mexico         PATRICK J. LEAHY, Vermont
    CHRISTOPHER S. BOND, Missouri        TOM HARKIN, Iowa
    MITCH McCONNELL, Kentucky            BARBARA A. MIKULSKI, Maryland
    CONRAD BURNS, Montana                HARRY REID, Nevada
    RICHARD C. SHELBY, Alabama           HERB KOHL, Wisconsin
    JUDD GREGG, New Hampshire            PATTY MURRAY, Washington
    ROBERT F. BENNETT, Utah              BYRON L. DORGAN, North Dakota
    LARRY CRAIG, Idaho                   DIANNE FEINSTEIN, California
    KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON, Texas          RICHARD J. DURBIN, Illinois
    MIKE DeWINE, Ohio                    TIM JOHNSON, South Dakota
    SAM BROWNBACK, Kansas                MARY L. LANDRIEU, Louisiana
    WAYNE ALLARD, Colorado
                        J. Keith Kennedy, Staff Director
                  Terrence E. Sauvain, Minority Staff Director
                                     ------

        Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies

                      RICHARD C. SHELBY, Alabama, Chairman
    JUDD GREGG, New Hampshire            BARBARA A. MIKULSKI, Maryland
    TED STEVENS, Alaska                  DANIEL K. INOUYE, Hawaii
    PETE V. DOMENICI, New Mexico         PATRICK J. LEAHY, Vermont
    MITCH McCONNELL, Kentucky            HERB KOHL, Wisconsin
    KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON, Texas          PATTY MURRAY, Washington
    SAM BROWNBACK, Kansas                TOM HARKIN, Iowa
    CHRISTOPHER S. BOND, Missouri        BYRON L. DORGAN, North Dakota
    THAD COCHRAN, Mississippi (ex        ROBERT C. BYRD, West Virginia
        officio)                           (ex officio)
                               Professional Staff
                                  Art Cameron
                                  Allen Cutler
                                  James Hayes
                               Rachelle Schroeder
                                 Goodloe Sutton
                            Paul Carliner (Minority)
                          Gabrielle Batkin (Minority)
                            Alexa Sewell (Minority)
                          Kate Fitzpatrick (Minority)

                             Administrative Support
                                 Augusta Wilson

                                C O N T E N T S

                                  ----------
                                                                       Page
    Opening Statement of Senator Richard C. Shelby...................     1
    Statement of Senator Barbara A. Mikulski.........................     2
    Statement of Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr. (USN,
      Ret.), Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere;
      and Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
      Administration, Department of Commerce.........................     3
    Dr. Louis W. Uccellini, Director, National Centers for
      Environmental Prediction, National Weather Service, Department
      of Commerce....................................................     3
    Hurricane-related Support........................................     4
    2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook...........................     4
    Multi-decadal Climate Patterns...................................     5
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Efforts to
      Improve Hurricane Predictions..................................     6
    Hurricane Preparation............................................     6
    Prepared Statement of Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr....     7
    NOAA Provided Critical Information and Support Before and After
      the 2005 Hurricanes............................................     7
    2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook...........................     8
    Multi-decadal Climate Patterns...................................     8
    NOAA Efforts to Improve Hurricane Predictions....................     9
    Aircraft Reconnaissance Data.....................................    10
    NOAA Encourages Everyone to Prepare..............................    10
    Biographical Sketch of Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr................    11
    Biographical Sketch of Dr. Louis W. Uccellini....................    12
    Statement of Dr. Louis Uccellini.................................    13
    Prediction of Future Storm Activity..............................    13
    Staffing for Forecasters.........................................    14
    Hurricane Season Preparedness....................................    14
    Technical Support................................................    16
    Evacuation Routes................................................    17
    National Centers for Environmental Prediction....................    17
    Information Processing and Prediction Cycle......................    18
    Hurricane Prediction Model.......................................    19
    Surge Prediction.................................................    20
    Hurricane Liaison Team...........................................    21
    Tsunami Preparedness.............................................    22
    Deepwater Detection Buoys........................................    23
    Addressing the Gaps Remaining in Tsunami Preparedness............    24
    Notification of Governors........................................    25
    Weather Prediction...............................................    25
    Storm Surge Forecasts............................................    26
    Coastal Zone Management Act......................................    27
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Priorities.......    27

                     OVERVIEW OF THE 2006 HURRICANE SEASON

                                  ----------

                            WEDNESDAY, JUNE 7, 2006

                               U.S. Senate,
             Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice,
                         Science, and Related Agencies,
                                   Committee on Appropriations,
                                                        Washington, DC.
        The subcommittee met at 10:28 a.m., in room SD-192, Dirksen
    Senate Office Building, Hon. Richard C. Shelby (chairman)
    presiding.
        Present: Senators Shelby, Mikulski, and Murray.

                 OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR RICHARD C. SHELBY

        Senator Shelby. Good morning. This hearing will come to
    order.
        We are here to discuss the important upcoming hurricane
    season. This is an important topic, and one that will get
    considerable attention in the months ahead as we reflect on the
    devastating 2005 hurricane season.
        We're pleased to have with us today the Under Secretary of
    Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, Vice Admiral Conrad
    Lautenbacher. He is joined by Dr. Louis W. Uccellini, the
    Director of the National Weather Service, National Centers for
    Environmental Prediction. Thank you both for appearing before
    the subcommittee.
        I would like to extend my appreciation to Dr. Uccellini,
    who is making a last-minute appearance, as Max Mayfield was
    unable to join us.
        I would like to begin by commending NOAA for its work
    surrounding last year's hurricanes. Predictions for Hurricane
    Katrina were especially well prepared, and undoubtedly saved
    countless lives. The work that goes into forecasting these
    storms should not be taken for granted. Congress recognizes the
    extraordinary effort and critical expertise NOAA provides the
    Nation. Emergency coordination after the storm is critical to
    helping our coastal communities. When it came to post-hurricane
    support, NOAA was one of the Federal agencies that provided
    quick, competent response on the water, in the air, and on the
    ground.
        The Office of Coast Survey mapped the ports for the purpose
    of safe navigation so they could reopen quickly. NOAA's Cessna
    Citation aircraft flew two to three missions each day, stopping
    only to refuel, to provide aerial photography of the affected
    areas. The National Weather Service provided emergency
    responders with realtime weather updates directly from the
    local weather offices to those in the field.
        The Office of Response and Restoration continues to help
    coordinate and mitigate marine debris removal. These services
    directly helped local and State emergency responders
    immediately following the hurricanes.
        As we enter the 2006 hurricane season, the subcommittee
    will be looking for you to use the lessons learned from last
    year to make good decisions this year. We're very interested in
    hearing about the communication and coordination shortfalls you
    had identified during your post-hurricane evaluations last
    year, how you have prepared to overcome those challenges now,
    and what additional measures need to be taken to address any
    future challenges that NOAA recognizes may be problematic. Only
    by generating a systematic and clear list of your needs can
    Congress better serve you.
        Gentlemen, we look forward to your testimony today. All of
    your written testimony will be made part of the record.
        Senator Mikulski.

                    STATEMENT OF SENATOR BARBARA A. MIKULSKI

        Senator Mikulski. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. And I
    want to thank you for your leadership in conducting this
    hearing. Because you and I are coastal Senators, we are
    absolutely, of course, directly impacted by hurricanes. What
    you lived through in the gulf, along with our colleagues, was
    stunning.
        I, too, want to welcome Admiral Lautenbacher, Dr.
    Uccellini. Why do I know how to say his name? He's a Maryland
    constituent.
        Senator Shelby. You're doing better than I'm doing.
        Senator Mikulski. Well, if you can get through Mikulski,
    you get to Uccellini.
        And, also, we wish Max Mayfield, the head of the Hurricane
    Prediction Center, well. We want to compliment NOAA on the fact
    that, at the Hurricane Prediction Center, they have a familiar
    and trusted voice. We've heard Mr. Mayfield over the years, and
    I think all of America knows, when we need to know about
    hurricanes, it comes out of one place, one voice, and that
    voice is viewed as trusted. And we need to make sure that's
    happening.
        This is a very timely hearing, because it's the first week
    of hurricane season, which will go from now until mid-October.
    NOAA, alarmingly, predicted that 2006 will be very active. Up
    to six hurricanes could be a category 3. What we need to make
    sure is that we have the most accurate prediction. Better
    prediction means better protection. And we know our mutual
    motto is, ``Saving lives and saving properties.'' We know that
    it only takes one hurricane to devastate a community.
        Mr. Chairman, on Monday I visited NOAA's National Centers
    for Environmental Prediction, in Camp Springs, Maryland, in
    Prince George's County. It's a tremendous national asset,
    developing and operating models for forecasters to predict
    where hurricanes will make landfall, how intense that hurricane
    is, and how--what is the surge, to predict how much flooding
    could either come up my bay, the gulf coast, or inland
    flooding. The models that they develop there are the roadmaps
    for weather forecasters nationwide. Without the experts in Camp
    Springs, the Hurricane Center cannot do its job. So, it's very
    important that--and if you went out there, you see that they're
    working on hurricanes, helping predict the conditions that
    could precipitate the wildfires, and many others. It is, kind
    of, the brain center, with the supercomputing model being--the
    supercomputer being in Gaithersburg. Why is that good? Well,
    not only do--am I proud that it's in my State, but they are
    literally out of, in many ways, harm's way of a hurricane. So,
    people think the Hurricane Center is in Miami, but that's in
    harm's way, and, as you know, from Katrina, when our own
    defenders and predictors go down, then there's only more
    vulnerability.
        So, today we need to know, How good are we at predicting,
    what we can do to work with you. What--I will tell you, what I
    was so impressed with was, sure, I saw new mathematical models;
    sure, I saw innovative technology; but, Mr. Chairman, what I
    saw were people--forecasters, mathematicians, all types of
    scientists--who read and analyze data. And we're lucky to be
    able to recruit them, and we need to also focus on how we can
    retain them. We need to make that weather service better,
    faster, stronger. They've got the will. Now let's you and I
    work together to find the wallet.
        I look forward to hearing the testimony.
        Senator Shelby. Thank you, Senator Mikulski.
        Admiral, we'll start with you.

    STATEMENT OF VICE ADMIRAL CONRAD C. LAUTENBACHER, JR.
                (USN, RET.), UNDER SECRETARY OF COMMERCE
                FOR OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE; AND
                ADMINISTRATOR, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND
                ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF
                COMMERCE

    ACCOMPANIED BY DR. LOUIS W. UCCELLINI, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL CENTERS FOR
                ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,
                DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

        Admiral Lautenbacher. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        Senator Shelby. Proceed as you wish.
        Admiral Lautenbacher. Yes, sir.
        Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman and ranking member,
    Senator Mikulski, and distinguished members of the subcommittee
    and the staff. We appreciate the opportunity to appear before
    you and discuss the topic of the day.
        First let me express my regrets for Max Mayfield, who could
    not be here today. We appreciate you giving him a bye. He has
    bronchitis, and we want to make sure he's ready for the season.
        But I have with me today, as you mentioned, Dr. Louis
    Uccellini--we'll just call him Louis--the head of the National
    Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
        Senator Shelby. I think we have his name down now,
    Uccellini.

                               OPENING STATEMENT

        Admiral Lautenbacher. But, as we all know, Max is well
    known by the public, but this man should be just as well known,
    because his work--he's really the head of the brain of NOAA, in
    terms of providing the weather forecasts that go out all over
    the Nation to all of our forecast offices. So, every prediction
    that you see out there in forecast has a bit of Louis in it, in
    the work that he does. So, it's a very important role that he
    plays, and he does it well, and I'm proud to be associated with
    this organization and the people who work in NOAA. They are
    very dedicated, talented individuals.
        I also want to express my gratitude to you and the
    subcommittee for your support and hard work on our behalf. It
    has allowed us to continue to support the Nation, as required,
    and we're very, very grateful for the kinds of support and
    interest that we have from this subcommittee. For instance, the
    hurricane supplemental funding that was approved recently has
    been fully distributed and is now being used, as directed. It
    includes funding for forecast model improvements, storm surge
    and inland hurricane forecasting improvements, and the
    procurement of an additional Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Thank
    you, again, for your support. This support will make a big
    difference in our ability to improve our forecasts for the
    future.

                           HURRICANE-RELATED SUPPORT

        Just a couple of comments on the--on last year's season,
    because of its record-breaking issues, in many ways. From our
    perspective, hurricane forecasts for Katrina and Rita were some
    of the most accurate ever for storm track, size, intensity,
    surge, and warning leadtime, allowing for evacuation of 85 to
    90 percent, or more, of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. And
    while Katrina and Rita are blamed for over 1,200 deaths, it may
    well have been much, much worse, as we all know.
        And, as the chairman mentioned, our work does not end with
    the forecasts. We immediately responded, after the destructive
    hurricanes had passed, by providing the aerial images, by
    providing realtime storm tide-level information to emergency
    responders, employing satellite imagery to determine coastal
    impacts, assessing the hazardous materials spills, surveying
    critical ports and waterways, redirecting NOAA ships to
    impacted areas, and contributing $4.3 million from our budget
    to States for environmental enforcement after the event.
        Our wide-ranging capabilities continue to support the
    impacted areas even now, with response to spills, maritime
    incidents, rebuilding fisheries, and delivering consistent and
    timely geodetic height information very important to
    restoration. NOAA can, and will, continue to bring more to the
    table than just our forecasts. And, again, your continued
    support of NOAA, across the board, is critical to our ability
    to add value to science for the American people, and we
    appreciate the total support that NOAA gains from this
    subcommittee.

                     2006 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK

        Now, for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, everywhere we
    go, this is an important question. People want to know how many
    hurricanes there will be, and if one will hit their area. The
    news media--and this hearing, I might add--also gives our
    seasonal forecasts high visibility, helping to raise awareness
    about the threat of hurricanes. I thank you, again, for this
    opportunity to raise that awareness.
        The official season, as mentioned, started June 1, and goes
    through November 30, with the average peak of hurricane
    activity occurring with the warmest water temperatures, from
    mid-August to late October. Our prediction for this year's
    Atlantic hurricane season is for 13 to 16 tropical storms, with
    8 to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which 4 to 6 could become major
    hurricanes. For comparison, on average, the North Atlantic
    hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with 6 becoming
    hurricanes, including 2 major hurricanes. A major hurricane is
    a storm category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane
    scale, which means winds greater than 110 miles per hour. Major
    hurricanes cause about 80 percent of the damage sustained from
    tropical cyclones. This year's forecast has an 80 percent
    likelihood of an above-average number of storms in the Atlantic
    basin. That's the highest level of confidence we've had in a
    number of years.
        Our forecast for this season is based primarily on the
    continuing multidecadal signal in the global tropics. This
    year, the signal indicates favorable atmospheric--including
    wind and pressure patterns--and oceanic--warm sea-surface
    temperature--conditions for hurricane formations.
        Another question that is frequently raised is the role
    climate change plays in hurricane frequency and intensity. This
    is an extremely important issue to NOAA. Our meteorologists and
    research scientists in several areas of our organization are
    actively engaged in ongoing research to better understand how
    climate variability and change may impact hurricane frequency
    and intensity.
        Last year was a record-setting season: 28 storms, 15
    hurricanes, of which 7 became major. We saw, all too vividly,
    the destruction and devastation hurricanes can cause. This is
    why it is important not to focus only on the total number of
    storms. The message is that we all need to be prepared.

                         MULTI-DECADAL CLIMATE PATTERNS

        We have observed that steering patterns for major hurricane
    landfalls can sometimes persist over several years. During the
    1940s, many major hurricanes hit Florida. During the 1950s, the
    focus of landfalling hurricanes shifted to the U.S. east coast.
    And during the 1960s, the central and western gulf coast were
    slammed by several hurricanes. This pattern might lead someone
    to assume, given the recent major hurricanes, like Charley,
    Ivan, Jean, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma in the last 2
    years, that Florida and the gulf coast are likely targets again
    this season. However, there are always exceptions, and it only
    takes one hurricane, over a given community, to make it a bad
    year.
        In 1983, for instance, there was only one landfalling
    hurricane in the United States, but it was category 3 Hurricane
    Alicia, which hit the Galveston and Houston area. And in 1992,
    we likewise, had only one hurricane. That was category 5
    Hurricane Andrew. The point of this is that no one can tell us
    reliably, months in advance, when or where hurricanes are going
    to strike. The state of science is simply not advanced enough
    at this time to do that. The bottom line is that all coastal
    States, from Texas to Maine, including Alabama and Maryland,
    Hawaii, and other U.S. interests in the Pacific and the
    Caribbean, are vulnerable to the devastation brought by a
    hurricane. Our message is consistent. We want every business,
    every family, every individual, and every community on or near
    the coast to have a hurricane preparedness plan, and have it in
    place at the start of the hurricane season.

      NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION EFFORTS TO IMPROVE
                             HURRICANE PREDICTIONS

        Now, improving hurricane forecasting is a top priority for
    the administration. NOAA has made great strides in improving
    our hurricane track forecasting. Our 5-day forecasts are now as
    accurate as 3-day forecasts were 15 years ago. NOAA spends over
    $300 million per year to track and forecast hurricanes. For
    2007, we are requesting $109 million in increases for
    hurricane-related investments. We are focusing our hurricane
    efforts on improving hurricane track and intensity forecasting
    through improved observations, modeling, and the continuation
    of a very effective method called ``joint hurricane testbeds.''
        Our equipment is also critical. NOAA aircraft, the P-3
    Orions and the Gulf Stream IV, provide essential observations
    and data critical to the National Hurricane Center forecasters
    and supplement the U.S. Air Force reconnaissance flights. The
    $14.2 million that NOAA received in the 2006 supplemental
    appropriations to improve future aircraft service will add an
    additional P-3 next year and upgrade the radar and
    instrumentation on all of NOAA's aircraft, an important
    investment.

                             HURRICANE PREPARATION

        We encourage everyone to prepare. We work year-round with
    Federal, State, and local emergency managers. We educate them
    about weather effects from hurricanes, and they educate us
    about response issues and their challenges. It is a constant
    learning process, and the key is working together to ensure the
    public takes appropriate action.
        Most preparedness activity and outreach take place outside
    the hurricane season. Last month, as part of our ongoing
    mission to enhance economic security and national safety, NOAA
    led a hurricane awareness tour along the gulf coast. The tour
    helped raise awareness about the potential effects from a
    hurricane landfall with the Federal Emergency Management Agency
    (FEMA), local governments, emergency managers, schools, the
    public, and the media, in a team effort to increase hurricane
    awareness and encourage preparedness in this vulnerable area of
    the Nation.
        During landfalling storms, it is essential for the
    emergency management community and the weather community to
    have one message for the public so that businesses and people
    can take appropriate action. Nowhere is this more critical than
    in areas most vulnerable to the impact of a hurricane.
        In conclusion, the truth is no one knows exactly what areas
    of the coast, or which States, or locations within those
    States, if any, will be impacted by hurricanes in 2006. Could
    it be Florida again? Maybe. How about New England or New York
    City? That's possible, but, right now we just do not know. We
    also need to remember that a hurricane is not just a coastal
    event. The strong winds, heavy rains, and tornados from
    weakening tropical systems can spread well inland and cause
    tremendous damage.
        Having said that, Katrina is a grim reminder that the
    greatest potential for large loss of life is from the storm
    surge near the coast. The bottom line is that all coastal
    States and territories are at risk. Everyone along the coast
    must be prepared well in advance to protect their lives and
    property in the event of a hurricane.
        Again, thank you to the subcommittee for your support and
    your interest in holding this hearing. We are ready to answer
    your questions.
        Thank you, sir.
        [The statement follows:]

         Prepared Statement of Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr.

        Chairman Shelby, Ranking Member Mikulski and Members of the
    Committee, I am Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., Under Secretary for Oceans
    and Atmosphere and Administrator of the National Oceanic and
    Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the Department of Commerce (DOC).
    I am joined by Dr. Louis Uccellini, Director of NOAA's National Weather
    Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Thank you for
    inviting us here today to discuss the outlook for the 2006 Hurricane
    Season, and to talk about what we can each do to be best prepared to
    protect lives and livelihoods in the event of a hurricane.
        First, let me express my sincere gratitude to the members of this
    Committee. Your continued support of NOAA and our hurricane program
    enables us to make the best forecasts possible, helping ensure the
    people of our Nation understand the potential impacts from hurricanes
    and what they can do to protect their life and property. The fiscal
    year 2006 Hurricane Supplemental Funding approved by Congress has been
    fully distributed and is being used as directed, including funding
    forecast model improvements, storm surge and inland hurricane
    forecasting improvements, and the procurement of an additional
    Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Thank you again for your support.

      NOAA PROVIDED CRITICAL INFORMATION AND SUPPORT BEFORE AND AFTER THE
                                2005 HURRICANES

        Before I discuss the details of the 2006 hurricane outlook, I would
    like to briefly highlight one of NOAA's most notable successes in
    recent memory--our performance during the 2005 season.
        Among our many hurricane-related missions, NOAA has the primary
    responsibility to provide weather data, forecasts and warnings for the
    United States and its territories. NOAA's forecasts and warnings for
    Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita pushed the limits of state-of-the-
    art hurricane prediction. NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS)
    operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast
    system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance
    the national economy. In partnership with the Department of Defense,
    NASA, the National Science Foundation, other federal agencies, and the
    academic community, the long-term continuous research efforts,
    including observations, modeling, and expanded computational resources
    have led to NOAA's current predictive capabilities and improved ways of
    describing uncertainty in prediction. Reconnaissance data from NOAA and
    Air Force Reserve aircraft provided critical data NOAA forecasters used
    for their accurate hurricane predictions. Hurricane forecasts for
    Katrina and Rita were some of the most accurate ever for storm track,
    size, intensity, surge, and warning lead time, allowing for evacuation
    of 85-90 percent or more of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. While
    Katrina and Rita are blamed for over 1,200 deaths, it may well have
    been much, much worse.
        But NOAA's work does not end with the forecast. This was
    particularly evident last August, when NOAA responded immediately to
    the destructive hurricanes in several ways. NOAA provided over 9,500
    aerial images of the impacted coastline to help emergency responders
    assess the situation, analyzed satellite imagery to determine the
    coastal impacts, and sent Scientific Support Coordinators to address
    nearly 400 hazardous material spills. We also sent Navigation Response
    Teams to survey for obstructions to navigation in critical ports and
    waterways to allow relief supplies to be delivered and maritime
    commerce to resume. NOAA ships THOMAS JEFFERSON and NANCY FOSTER were
    diverted from planned missions to areas impacted by the hurricanes and
    helped collect data needed to reopen critical Gulf Coast ports and to
    assess impacts on Gulf Coast ports and fisheries. Immediately following
    the storms, NOAA contributed $4.3 million to the States to assist with
    environmental enforcement and search-and-rescue. Readings from NOAA's
    National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON) tide stations in the
    region provided emergency responders with real time storm tides, and
    are now invaluable data that can be used in planning the rebuilding of
    the coast.
        NOAA's wide-ranging capabilities continue to support the impacted
    areas with response to spills and maritime incidents. NOAA invested
    more than $3.7 million in 2005 grant funding to Gulf States to build,
    and in some cases re-build, their infrastructure and capacity to
    determine and deliver consistent and timely geodetic height
    information. Accurate land and water level heights are critical to
    determining effective highway evacuation routes, levee heights, storm
    surge modeling, flood plain mapping, sea level rise calculations,
    vessel under-keel and bridge clearance, subsidence monitoring, and
    restoration of coastal habitats. So, as you see, NOAA can and will
    continue to bring more to the table than just our forecasts. Your
    continued support of NOAA across the board is critical to our ability
    to add value to science for the American people.

                     2006 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK

        Everywhere we go we are asked about the forecast for this hurricane
    season. People want to know how many hurricanes there will be and if
    one will hit their area. The media also gives these seasonal forecasts
    high visibility, and this can have a very positive effect because it
    raises awareness about the threat from hurricanes and encourages
    businesses and people to prepare for what might happen.
        The official hurricane season started June 1st and goes through
    November 30th, with the average peak of hurricane activity occurring
    with the warmest water temperatures, from mid-August to late October.
    NOAA's prediction for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season is for 13-16
    tropical storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to
    six could become major hurricanes. A major hurricane is a storm
    Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, with winds
    greater than 110 miles per hour. Major hurricanes cause about 80
    percent of the damage sustained from tropical storms. We are predicting
    an 80 percent likelihood of an above average number of storms in the
    Atlantic Basin this season. This is the highest percentage we have ever
    issued. Our forecast for this season is based primarily on the
    continuing Multi-Decadal Signal in the global tropics--a climate
    pattern that has been in place since 1995. Since the mid-1990s, nine of
    the last 11 hurricane seasons have been above normal, with only two
    below normal seasons during the El Nino years of 1997 and 2002. This
    Multi-decadal signal will likely keep us in an active period for major
    hurricanes for another 10 to 20 years or more.
        Warmer ocean water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and
    Caribbean combined with expected weaker easterly trade winds and a more
    favorable wind pattern in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are factors
    that collectively will favor storms in greater numbers and greater
    intensity. Warm water is the energy source for storms while favorable
    wind patterns limit the wind shear that can tear apart a storm's
    building cloud structure.
        NOAA is actively engaged in ongoing research to understand how
    climate variability and change may affect hurricane frequency and
    intensity. For example, climate effects from outside the Atlantic
    basin, such as El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can impact
    hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin. This year, however, NOAA
    scientists predict neutral ENSO conditions, which means neither El Nino
    conditions (which tend to suppress hurricane formation) nor La Nina
    conditions (which tend to favor hurricane formation) will be a factor
    in this year's hurricane season.
        Last year was a record-setting hurricane season, with 28 storms and
    15 hurricanes, of which seven were major hurricanes. We saw all too
    vividly the destruction and devastation individual hurricanes can
    cause. This is why it is important not to focus only on the total
    number of storms. The message is clear. We all need to be prepared.

                         MULTI-DECADAL CLIMATE PATTERNS

        As mentioned above, we have observed that steering patterns for
    major hurricane landfalls can sometimes persist over several years.
    During the 1940s many major hurricanes hit Florida. During the 1950s,
    the focus of land falling hurricane shifted to the U.S. East Coast.
    During the 1960s, the central and western Gulf Coast were slammed by
    several hurricanes.
        This pattern might lead one to assume that--given the recent major
    hurricanes like Charley, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma
    in 2004 and 2005--Florida and the Gulf Coast are likely targets again
    this season. However, in each of these decades there were exceptions.
    For example, in the 1940s, while most storms hit Florida, two made
    landfall in the Gulf, and one made landfall in New England. In
    addition, in the 1930s, major land falling hurricanes were relatively
    well distributed along the U.S. coastline--hitting the U.S. coast from
    Texas to New England. Consequently, while it is possible to observe
    these trends and make generalizations based upon these observations--it
    is important to understand that in any given year a hurricane can
    impact any part of the U.S. coastline from Texas to Maine. Coastal
    communities along the Gulf and East Coasts (in addition to Hawaii and
    other interests in the Pacific and Caribbean) remain at risk for
    hurricanes, and the business community and the public must be prepared
    to respond if a situation arises.
        It only takes one hurricane over a given community to make for a
    bad year. In 1983, there was only one landfalling hurricane in the
    United States, but it was Category 3 Hurricane Alicia which hit the
    Galveston/Houston area. And in 1992, we only had one hurricane make
    landfall in the United States, but that was Category 5 Hurricane
    Andrew, which hit southern Miami-Dade County, Florida.
        No one can tell us reliably, months in advance when or where
    hurricanes are going to strike. The state of the science is simply not
    advanced enough at this time to do that. The bottom line is that all
    coastal states from Texas to Maine, Hawaii, and other U.S. interests in
    the Pacific and the Caribbean are vulnerable to the devastation brought
    by a hurricane. The message from NOAA is very consistent. We want every
    business, every family, every individual, and every community on or
    near the coast to have a hurricane preparedness plan and have it in
    place at the start of hurricane season.

                 NOAA EFFORTS TO IMPROVE HURRICANE PREDICTIONS

        Improving hurricane forecasting is a top priority for the
    Administration. NOAA has made great strides in improving hurricane
    track forecasting; our 5-day forecasts are now as accurate as 3-day
    forecasts were 15 years ago. NOAA spends over $300 million per year to
    track and forecast hurricanes. In fiscal year 2007, we are requesting
    $109 million in increases for hurricane-related investments.
        NOAA is focused on improving hurricane track, intensity, storm
    surge, and rainfall predictions. The accuracy of NOAA's hurricane
    forecasts is closely tied to improvements in computer-based numerical
    weather prediction models. This year NOAA implemented advances in its
    hurricane forecasting model that are expected to yield improved track
    and intensity guidance for our forecasters. The Geophysical Fluid
    Dynamics Laboratory in NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric
    Research (OAR) developed this hurricane model and incorporated it into
    operations at NWS's National Center for Environmental Prediction
    (NCEP).
        NOAA's Central Computer System upgrade in fiscal year 2007 will
    increase computational speed, memory, and storage capabilities. This
    allows more sophisticated numerical models to run and make use of
    available data, including data from NOAA's polar orbiting and
    geostationary satellites. We expect significant improvements in
    intensity, precipitation and wind distribution forecasting from the
    next generation operational modeling system.
        Predicting hurricane intensity remains one of our most difficult
    forecast challenges. We are all aware of the improvements made in
    predicting hurricane track forecasts and this has been where NOAA and
    the research community have, in the past, placed their emphasis. Within
    the past few years, the emphasis on improving intensity prediction has
    increased. Leading the way, in fiscal year 2007 NOAA plans to introduce
    a new hurricane modeling system developed by NCEP's Environmental
    Modeling Center called the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting
    model (HWRF).
        Congress supported this effort in the fiscal year 2006 Hurricane
    Supplemental Funding, and HWRF implementation and development is
    included in the fiscal year 2007 President's Budget request. The HWRF
    will be a coupled atmosphere-ocean prediction system that will take
    advantage of the latest atmosphere and ocean observations, the most
    advanced methods to analyze those data, and state of the art physics to
    produce our Nation's next generation hurricane forecast system. Once
    the HWRF becomes operational, our goal is to improve hurricane
    intensity predictions by about 30 percent by 2015.
        Hurricane Katrina is a grim reminder that the greatest potential
    for economic destruction and large loss of life is from the storm surge
    near the coast. Storm surge is also very difficult to predict because
    it depends on the hurricane track and wind field, but it also is
    impacted by bathymetry and natural and man-made barriers, such as dunes
    and roadways. A slight difference in track or wind field can mean a
    huge difference in where the highest storm surge impacts the coast.
        We believe the NOAA Storm Surge Model, known as SLOSH (Sea, Lake
    and Overland, Surge from Hurricanes) provided excellent guidance during
    last year's hurricanes. We realize many other storm surge models exist,
    and NOAA recently formed an assessment team to re-examine our users'
    requirements for real-time storm surge information and products, to
    direct storm surge modeling within NOAA, and to plan for future
    enhancement of, or the replacement of, the SLOSH model.
        NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML)
    Hurricane Research Division (HRD) also conducts research to better
    understand internal storm dynamics and interactions between a hurricane
    and the surrounding atmosphere and ocean. AOML's scientists provide
    data and information to operational NOAA forecasters for use in models.
    Through a greater understanding of physical processes and advanced
    hurricane modeling, in collaboration with federal partners, academic
    researchers, and commercial enterprises, NOAA continually improves
    models for predicting hurricane intensity and track.
        To help guide future research efforts, NOAA's Science Advisory
    Board commissioned a Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group to
    provide recommendations to the agency on the direction of hurricane
    intensity research. The Working Group expects to transmit its final
    report to the Science Advisory Board in July 2006. The National Science
    Board of the National Science Foundation has also convened a working
    group of external advisors to review hurricane science and engineering.
    The final report from this group is scheduled to be submitted to the
    National Science Board in August 2006. Recommendations from these
    reports will be carefully considered by NOAA as we plan our efforts to
    improve our operations and predictions.

                          AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA

        NOAA aircraft, the W-P3 Orions and the Gulf Stream IV, provide
    essential observations critical to the National Hurricane Center
    forecasters and supplement the U.S. Air Force Reserve Command's 53rd
    Weather Reconnaissance Squadron flights. The $14.2 million NOAA
    received in fiscal year 2006 supplemental appropriations to improve
    future aircraft service will add an additional W-P3 next year, and
    upgrade the radar and instrumentation on all of NOAA's aircraft.
        A specialized instrument flown on the W-P3s, the Stepped Frequency
    Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), was developed by NOAA researchers at AOML
    and provides essential data on hurricane structure, surface wind and
    rain rate to hurricane forecasters. The SFMR allows forecasters and
    researchers to see fluctuations in hurricane intensity not observed
    before. The Military Construction Appropriations and Emergency
    Hurricane Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2005 (Public Law 108-324)
    provided $10.5 million to the Air Force to outfit the complete fleet of
    Hurricane Hunters with this instrument. We hope the first of these
    additional units will be available toward the end of the 2006 Hurricane
    Season.

                      NOAA ENCOURAGES EVERYONE TO PREPARE

        We work year-round with federal, state, and local emergency
    managers; we educate them about weather effects from hurricanes and
    they educate us about response issues and their challenges. It is a
    constant learning process and the key is working together to ensure the
    public takes appropriate action. Most preparedness activity and
    outreach takes place outside hurricane season. Last month, as part of
    our ongoing mission to enhance economic security and national safety,
    NOAA led a Hurricane Awareness Tour along the Gulf Coast. The tour
    helped raise awareness about the potential effects from a hurricane
    landfall. The National Weather Service forecast offices arranged the
    tour events with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, local
    governments, emergency managers, schools, the public and the media in a
    team effort to increase hurricane awareness and encourage preparedness
    in this vulnerable area of the nation. During land falling storms, it
    is essential for the emergency management community and the weather
    community to have one message for the public so businesses and people
    can take appropriate action. Nowhere is this more critical than in
    areas most vulnerable to the impact of a hurricane.
        While NOAA will continue to do its best to provide as much warning
    as possible, it is my hope that each business, each family, and each
    community, on or near the coast, will develop and be able to execute a
    hurricane preparedness plan. We must all be ready to protect our lives
    and property from the power of hurricanes.

                                   CONCLUSION

        The truth is, right now, no one knows exactly what areas of the
    coast, or which states or locations within those states, if any, a
    hurricane will hit in 2006. Could it be the Gulf Coast again? Maybe.
    How about New England or New York City? That's possible, but, right now
    we just don't know. We also need to remember a hurricane is not just a
    coastal event. The strong winds, heavy rains and tornadoes from
    weakening tropical systems can spread well inland and cause tremendous
    damage.
        The chart below shows the tracks of tropical storms and hurricanes
    since 1851. I think most people can look at this graphic and understand
    that the United States is vulnerable to hurricanes. The bottom line is
    that all coastal states from Texas to Maine, Hawaii, and other U.S.
    interests in the Pacific and the Caribbean are at risk. Everyone along
    the coast, including inland communities, must be prepared to protect
    their lives and property in the event of a hurricane. Thank you.

                                     ______

               Biographical Sketch of Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr.

        A native of Philadelphia, Pa., retired Navy Vice Admiral Conrad C.
    Lautenbacher, Ph.D., is serving as the Under Secretary of Commerce for
    Oceans and Atmosphere. He was appointed Dec. 19, 2001. Along with this
    title comes the added distinction of serving as the eighth
    Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
    He holds an M.S. and Ph.D. from Harvard University in applied
    mathematics.
        Lautenbacher oversees the day-to-day functions of NOAA, as well as
    laying out its strategic and operational future. The agency manages an
    annual budget of $4 billion. The agency includes, and is comprised of,
    the National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Services;
    National Marine Fisheries Service; National Ocean Service; National
    Weather Service; Oceanic and Atmospheric Research; Marine and Aviation
    Operations; and the NOAA Corps, the nation's seventh uniformed service.
    He directed an extensive review and reorganization of the NOAA
    corporate structure to meet the environmental challenges of the 21st
    century.
        As the NOAA Administrator, Lautenbacher spearheaded the first-ever
    Earth Observation Summit, which hosted ministerial-level representation
    from several dozen of the world's nations in Washington July 2003.
    Through subsequent international summits and working groups, he worked
    to encourage world scientific and policy leaders to work toward a
    common goal of building a sustained Global Earth Observation System of
    Systems (GEOSS) that would collect and disseminate data, information
    and models to stakeholders and decision makers for the benefit of all
    nations individually and the world community collectively. The effort
    culminated in an agreement for a 10-year implementation plan for GEOSS
    reached by the 55 member countries of the Group on Earth Observations
    at the Third Observation Summit held in Brussels February 2005.
        He also has headed numerous delegations at international
    governmental summits and conferences around the world, including the
    U.S. delegation to 2002 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Ocean
    Ministerial Meeting in Korea, and 2002 and 2003 meetings of the World
    Meteorological Organization and Intergovernmental Oceanographic
    Commission in Switzerland and France, as well as leading the Commerce
    delegation to the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development in South
    Africa.
        Before joining NOAA, Lautenbacher formed his own management
    consultant business, and worked principally for Technology, Strategies
    & Alliances Inc. He was president and CEO of the Consortium for
    Oceanographic Research and Education (CORE). This not-for-profit
    organization has a membership of 76 institutions of higher learning and
    a mission to increase basic knowledge and public support across the
    spectrum of ocean sciences.
        Lautenbacher is a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy (Class of
    1964), and has won accolades for his performance in a broad range of
    operational, command and staff positions both ashore and afloat. He
    retired after 40 years of service in the Navy. His military career was
    marked by skilled fiscal management and significant improvements in
    operations through performance-based evaluations of processes.
        During his time in the Navy, he was selected as a Federal Executive
    Fellow and served at the Brookings Institution. He served as a guest
    lecturer on numerous occasions at the Naval War College, the Army War
    College, the Air War College, The Fletcher School of Diplomacy, and the
    components of the National Defense University.
        His Navy experience includes tours as Commanding Officer of USS
    HEWITT (DD-966), Commander Naval Station Norfolk; Commander of Cruiser-
    Destroyer Group Five with additional duties as Commander U.S. Naval
    Forces Central Command Riyadh during Operations Desert Shield and
    Desert Storm, where he was in charge of Navy planning and participation
    in the air campaign. As Commander U.S. Third Fleet, he introduced joint
    training to the Pacific with the initiation of the first West Coast
    Joint Task Force Training Exercises (JTFEXs).
        A leader in the introduction of cutting-edge information
    technology, he pioneered the use of information technology to mount
    large-scale operations using sea-based command and control. As
    Assistant for Strategy with the Chief of Naval Operations Executive
    Panel, and Program Planning Branch Head in the Navy Program Planning
    Directorate, he continued to hone his analytic skills resulting in
    designation as a specialist both in Operations Analysis and Financial
    Management. During his final tour of duty, he served as Deputy Chief of
    Naval Operations (Resources, Warfare Requirements and Assessments) in
    charge of Navy programs and budget.
        Lautenbacher lives in Northern Virginia with his wife Susan who is
    a life-long high school and middle school science teacher.
                                     ______

                 Biographical Sketch of Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

        Dr. Louis W. Uccellini is currently the Director of the National
    Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).
    In his position, he is responsible for directing and planning the
    science, technology and operations related to NCEP's Central Operations
    and Environmental Modeling Center as well as seven national centers
    that forecast specific weather phenomena. These centers include the
    National Hurricane Center (Miami, FL), Storm Prediction Center (Norman,
    OK), Space Environment Center (Boulder, CO), Ocean Prediction Center,
    Hydrometeorological Prediction Centers, Climate Prediction Center and
    Aviation Weather Center (Kansas City, MO).
        Prior, Dr. Uccellini was the Director of the NWS Office of
    Meteorology from 1994 to 1999; Chief of the NWS Meteorological
    Operations Division from 1989 to 1994; and Section Head for the
    Mesoscale Analysis and Modeling Section in the Goddard Space Flight
    Center's Laboratory for Atmospheres from 1978 to 1989.
        He received his Ph.D. (1977), Masters (1972) and Bachelor of
    Science (1971), degrees from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Dr.
    Uccellini has published more than 55 journal articles and chapters in
    books on subjects including analysis of severe weather outbreaks,
    snowstorms, gravity waves, jet streaks, cyclones and the use of
    satellite data in analysis and modeling applications. He is the co-
    author of a widely acclaimed book entitled Snowstorms Along the
    Northeastern Coast of the United States: 1955 to 1985, which was
    published by the American Meteorological Society in 1990; and authored
    a chapter in the 1999 AMS publication The Life Cycles of Extratropical
    Cyclones that provides a historical review of advances in forecasting
    extratropical cyclones at NCEP. Also in the Fall of 2004, a new two-
    volume book: Northeast Snowstorms, co-authored by Dr. Uccellini, was
    published by the American Meteorological Society.
        Dr. Uccellini has received numerous awards in recognition of his
    research and operational achievements including the Maryland Academy of
    Sciences Distinguished Young Scientist Award (1981), the NASA Medal for
    Exceptional Scientific Achievement (1985), the American Meteorological
    Society's prestigious Clarence Leroy Meisinger Award (1985), and the
    National Weather Association's Research Achievement Awards for
    Significant Contributions to Operational Meteorology (1996). He was
    elected as a Fellow to the AMS in 1987, and received the U.S.
    Presidential Meritorious Executive Rank Award in 2001.

        Senator Shelby. Dr. Uccellini. Is that right?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. No, he's just asking you if that's
    the right pronunciation.
        Dr. Uccellini. Yes, it is. Dr. Uccellini.
        Senator Shelby. Uccellini.
        Dr. Uccellini. Right.
        Senator Shelby. Uccellini. I thought the Senator from
    Maryland would certainly get it right. Go ahead.

                        STATEMENT OF DR. LOUIS UCCELLINI

        Dr. Uccellini. Well, most of my comments would be included
    in what you've just heard.
        I'll just say, with respect to the National Centers for
    Environmental Prediction, that the National Hurricane Center is
    one of seven service centers. I like to tell my family that,
    with Max Mayfield, when they see him on TV--they ask who he
    works for, and I tell them that we all work for Max, although
    on paper he reports to me.
        The National Centers provide the model, the IT
    infrastructure, to ensure that the National Hurricane Center
    works on time, every time. And, in that light, we also provide
    the critical backup to the National Hurricane Center. This was
    an issue last year, as we dealt with Hurricane Wilma, that
    crossed right over the Center. So, it is an issue we take very
    seriously.
        With respect to the past year and lessons learned, I want
    to assure you that all the model upgrades that have been
    planned, and which were accelerated through supplemental
    appropriations, have been implemented in time for the hurricane
    season, and that we've increased the number of forecasters in
    the National Hurricane Center. And we thank you for your
    support in that regard.
        We've implemented new techniques for hurricane track and
    intensity forecasts, and have the workstation software online
    to bring those to the fingertips of the forecasters at the
    National Hurricane Center. And, last, but not least, we have
    coordinated the numerous outreach activities, and we feel we're
    ready for this season.

                      PREDICTION OF FUTURE STORM ACTIVITY

        Senator Shelby. Last year was the strongest hurricane
    season on record, with 15 hurricanes, 4 of which were category
    5, and 4 making landfall. Doctor, given Admiral Lautenbacher's
    statement regarding the forecast for 2006, do you expect a
    continued increase in storm activity? And, if so, for how many
    years? I know it's a prediction.
        Dr. Uccellini. Well, the numbers that we're predicting have
    been brought forward, and they are less than what we had last
    year.
        Senator Shelby. Less?
        Dr. Uccellini. They are less than what we actually had last
    year. But the prediction we made in May of last year, and
    updated in August, was also less than the actual number of
    storms that occurred in 2005. And one of the important factors
    that the folks in the Climate Prediction Center, who also work
    for me, said that the numbers that we're predicting right now
    are actually larger than the numbers we brought forward in May
    of last year. So, the bottom line here is that we are expecting
    an active season. The conditions are ripe for an active season.
    Whether we approach the record season we had last year is
    something that our forecasters are not willing to put forward
    at this point.
        We will update this forecast in August, as we are in the
    middle of the season.
        Senator Shelby. Last year, your predictions were, I
    thought, so accurate, considering it is a prediction. I know
    you can't forecast everything in the future, but do you believe
    you have the tools to improve on your forecast and so forth?
        Dr. Uccellini. Well, the forecasting of any weather event
    is a very difficult scientific problem.
        Senator Shelby. It is.
        Dr. Uccellini. And, clearly, the more observations we have,
    the better we make our models, which are based on mathematical
    and physical principles, the larger the computers that we can
    bring to solving those problems on an on-time basis. This is
    something we have to do in real time, so we strive for those
    improvements. So, yes, we do a good job. We have the
    verifications to show that our forecasts are improving, but
    there are a lot of issues still facing us that we know we have
    to deal with, from a purely scientific point of view and also a
    technological point of view, to continue to improve those
    forecasts.

                            STAFFING FOR FORECASTERS

        Senator Shelby. Admiral, what about the staffing situation
    at NOAA, for forecasters throughout the National Weather
    Service? Is it adequate? Do you need more? Senator Mikulski and
    I want to make sure you have the adequate resources, because
    the way your agency performed is exemplary.
        Admiral Lautenbacher. Thank you. And I appreciate that. We
    have been very fortunate in being able to increase, because of
    your action, the number of forecasters in the Hurricane Center
    by four, whom we promoted from within the organization. We are
    in the process of making sure that all of the backfills for
    those people have been promoted, who are fully staffed--that
    the forecasting group is fully staffed for hurricanes this
    season. We continue to ask for support on the pay raises,
    because there has been some leveling off of our ability to
    provide backfill for pay raises when they are absorbed in the
    general budget. And so, the administration did ask for
    increases in pay raises for our forecasters this year, and I
    commend that, again, in the interest of the subcommittee. I
    think it's very important for our morale.
        Senator Shelby. You've got to keep the good people.
        Admiral Lautenbacher. Yes, sir.

                         HURRICANE SEASON PREPAREDNESS

        Senator Shelby. I understand that NOAA recently
    participated in some of the gulf States' emergency management
    workshops as an essential Federal partner in the hurricane
    preparedness process. What's your opinion on how the gulf
    States are preparing for the coming hurricane season,
    particularly with respect to the lessons learned from last
    year? Which one of y'all want to take that?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. Well, maybe we can both----
        Senator Shelby. Both, okay.
        Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. Both contribute. I have
    been down to the gulf coast personally to tour our facilities
    and talk to people, and I think there is new recognition, and
    very serious concern, about preparing, this year. And I've
    talked to several of the State directors. I know that Max does
    that all the time. So I don't want to be complacent. I want to
    continue to get people serious about it, because I know there
    are always a few that don't get the word. But the fact is, I
    think, that awareness is much higher, and we're preparing to
    help them as much as we can this year.
        Senator Shelby. Where are you, as far as helping the people
    in the gulf coast, and everywhere, to develop construction
    standards for hurricane-resistant structures and shelters? All
    of that's important.
        Admiral Lautenbacher. It is very important, and we have a
    joint committee with NIST, the National Institute of Standards
    and Technology, which is part of the Department of Commerce--to
    take our modeling and look at their structural models--because
    they're the ones that have to determine what these standards
    are. So, the issue here is to go from large-scale models that
    tell what's going on in an area for winds and surge, and turn
    it into something that can be done locally and looked at by the
    structural engineers at NIST. And we are very dedicated to
    working on that problem with them.
        Senator Shelby. Doctor, do you have anything to add to
    that?
        Dr. Uccellini. Well, I was just going to add, on the
    outreach at the State and local levels, that the National
    Weather Service, Southern Region, headed by Bill Proenza, and
    the Eastern Region, headed by Dean Gulezian, have been very
    active in working with the State and local emergency management
    and other responders, first responders, with respect to
    reacting to the hurricane warnings and warnings that are
    associated with them. So, the National Weather Service has been
    active in our outreach--they do this every year, but this year,
    particularly, has been a focus. And I know that the staff in
    these forecast offices and in the regional offices have been
    right there all off-season to deal with these issues and making
    sure that the communities are ready.
        Senator Shelby. I understand that NOAA works with FEMA, the
    U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Corps of Engineers, and other
    Federal and State agencies, to assure a coordinated effort on
    preparedness for hurricanes and coastal flooding. Do you feel
    there has been significant coordination between all State and
    Federal agencies as we enter into this new hurricane season?
        Admiral.
        Admiral Lautenbacher. I do. I have seen a lot more
    coordination, starting with the White House and working down
    into the local region. Response plans have been developed. The
    season has actually been sort of war-gamed at the highest
    level, at the Cabinet level, in which we've been involved. And
    we have participated, as Dr. Uccellini mentioned, at the local
    level, as well as at the Federal level. So, there has been, in
    my view, an enhanced degree of coordination and cooperation
    this year. I, personally, have talked to the new FEMA Director,
    and we've set up new coordinating bodies to work together to
    look at the response that comes after a hurricane. And I'm
    feeling that we're moving in the right direction.

                               TECHNICAL SUPPORT

        Senator Shelby. What technical support or tools does NOAA
    provide during the rest of the year, to help the State and
    local governments undertake hazard mitigation, actions, and
    prepare communities?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. It's ongoing. It's ongoing all year.
    I know if Max Mayfield were here, he would tell you about the
    activities that he takes outside of the hurricane season. As
    he's always said, the preparedness for this hurricane season
    takes place in the off season. He spends a great deal of time
    on the road, as many of our folks do, talking to, and making
    personal appearances. It is not just the hurricane awareness
    tour that I've talked to you about. So, there's a great deal of
    outreach that goes on continuously, year round, from our folks.
    Now, we have the StormReady Program, which is exceedingly
    important. Every weather forecast office in our Nation is
    available. They have a warning coordinator/meteorologist, who
    talks continuously to the county and city managers in that
    area, and who provides checksheets and ways to certify that
    county and city that they are ready and prepared for any
    emergency event, and that doubles--goes double along our
    coasts.
        Senator Shelby. I also understand that NOAA has begun
    work--and probably has, in the past--in communities to create
    and improve their coastal inundation maps. How is this effort
    coordinated with updating the FEMA floodplain maps? And are the
    NOAA maps being created using the latest technologies,
    topography, and data and so forth? This is very important in
    another committee, the Banking Committee. You know we are
    working on the Flood Insurance Program there. Mapping is so
    important to all of it, is it not?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. It's critical. And we work very
    closely with the Flood Hazard Mapping Program. We provide the
    elevation data, and we provide some of the charting of the
    coasts, and our models help determine the floodplain areas.
    That information all goes to FEMA and to the cognizant parts of
    State and local agencies.
        Senator Shelby. So, that'll ultimately wind up in the
    zoning and building codes, hopefully?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. It should.
        Senator Shelby. In the local communities?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. It should wind up in the zoning and
    the building codes. Again, much of the zoning and building
    codes are local----
        Senator Shelby. We know.
        Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. Are local issues, and we
    work, to our utmost, to ensure the information is available to
    all local/regional emergency managers.
        Senator Shelby. Do you know if any of the coastal
    communities--and I'll speak from the gulf perspective, and let
    Senator Mikulski do the other, from the East have they adjusted
    their land use as a result of any of your maps?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. I am not aware of that. I'm really
    not informed enough to answer the question.
        Senator Shelby. But, ultimately, they----
        Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. Take it back----
        Senator Shelby [continuing]. They should look at
    everything, from----
        Admiral Lautenbacher. They should.
        Senator Shelby [continuing]. From flood and a propensity of
    hurricanes, everything, should they not?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. Absolutely.

                               EVACUATION ROUTES

        Senator Shelby. What about evacuation routes? Have you
    worked with FEMA, anybody, on that, in the States?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. We do work with evacuation routes
    with the emergency managers. It's particularly important in the
    tsunami work that we've been doing, where there is more
    vulnerability on the west coast, but it's something that every
    coast should be dealing with. Evacuation routes are part of the
    certification for StormReady, so we work with the emergency
    managers in each area to ensure that they have looked at the
    emergency routes. Our folks are not necessarily the experts,
    but they can provide the information on what makes sense.
        Senator Shelby. I have some other questions, but I'm going
    to now recognize Senator Mikulski for any questions.

                 NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION

        Senator Mikulski. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Many
    of your questions are also mine.
        But I'd like to turn to Dr. Uccellini and ask this. We hear
    about the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. And
    what I'd like to share with my colleagues, this is not only--
    the Center is not only limited to hurricane prediction. What
    else goes on there?
        Dr. Uccellini. Well, we have seven service centers that
    involve basically everything from the Sun to the sea. We have
    the Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colorado. We have the
    Storm Prediction Center and the Tornado Watch Program in
    Norman, Oklahoma; the Aviation Weather Center, in Kansas City.
    We have the Tropical Prediction and the National Hurricane
    Center in Miami. And then, in Camp Springs, Maryland, we have
    the Climate Prediction Center; the Hydrometeorological
    Prediction Center, which does the quantitative precipitation
    forecasts that are used for the inland flooding problem; and
    then, the Ocean Prediction Center, which is a critical part of
    our forecast infrastructure. Many of these storms, obviously,
    are over sea, and the Nation's commerce is really dependent
    upon the ships at sea, so the Ocean Prediction Center is
    involved in differentiating your normal storms from your gales
    and your major storms. So, there's this whole range of
    activities that are then supported by the modeling and the
    infrastructure of getting this global data from the global
    observing system to the models on time, getting the information
    out of the models, getting the information from all of these
    forecast centers out to not only the general public, but the
    private sector, our local forecast offices, et cetera. So,
    that's the whole range of what we do.
        Senator Mikulski. So, first of all, NOAA isn't like a
    Government agency talking to another Government agency about
    hurricanes; that essentially, for our colleagues in the Senate,
    what the National Centers for Environmental Prediction does is,
    serve the Nation, serve us coastal Senators that are hurricane
    impacted, serve the western Senators in helping to predict the
    factors that could be creating wild--a high level of
    possibility for wildfires, the tornado predictions, working
    with the private sector, particularly with aviation
    prediction--when's it safe to take off? What are the weather
    conditions, and so on? Is this--so that NOAA really serves the
    Nation in any kind of weather impact, from school closings to
    airport closings. Am I----
        Dr. Uccellini. That's correct. One of the partners that I
    haven't mentioned in this is the media, for example. And we
    have strong partnerships with them across the whole line. And
    so, they access our products directly. So, what I'd like to say
    is, basically, from the National Centers for Environmental
    Prediction's point of view, all the forecasts you see here and
    read about start with us. They don't end with us, but they
    start with us. We provide that critical information that allows
    these folks to get that information out.
        Senator Mikulski. But your customer is not only other
    Government agencies, it is, number one, other Government
    agencies for readiness, response, repair; the second is also
    the private sector, like in the field of aviation, cargo
    shipping, lost cargo, a Valdez, anything that could have come
    from weather would be impacted; and then also ordinary people,
    themselves, who have to know what to do.
        Dr. Uccellini. Right.
        Senator Mikulski. And the media is your best friend for
    broad distribution. Is that right?
        Dr. Uccellini. That's correct.

                  INFORMATION PROCESSING AND PREDICTION CYCLE

        Senator Mikulski. Now, what--and then, you do this by
    observing, through satellites and land sensors and ships at
    sea, et cetera. Then that information comes to the National
    Centers for Environmental Prediction. Then it's processed, and
    then sent down, in the case of hurricanes, to the Hurricane
    Center, who then value-adds. Is that the way it works?
    Observation, process, down to the appropriate center, where
    even more is added to it, and then back out to the appropriate
    public/private and ordinary citizen----
        Dr. Uccellini. That----
        Senator Mikulski [continuing]. Is that the way it works?
        Dr. Uccellini. That's the way it works. And it works on a
    cycle of four times per day. Every 6 hours, we repeat that
    cycle.
        Senator Mikulski. Four times a day----
        Dr. Uccellini. Right.
        Senator Mikulski [continuing]. Every 6 hours. So, you're
    operating 24/7.
        Dr. Uccellini. Right.
        Senator Mikulski. It's just not like you're sitting
    around--and I don't--please, don't--and then, when you think
    something might happen, and you all come alive.
        Dr. Uccellini. We have to be ready all the time. We're
    predicting all the time. We have to be able to tell emergency
    managers, or anybody, when it's not going to storm, just as
    much as when it is going to. And, we like to point out, for the
    United States, which, as a country, has more severe weather
    than any other country in the world, that there's always
    something happening in this country that our forecasters have
    to deal with.
        Senator Mikulski. Twenty-four/seven, six times a day, all
    these predictions----
        Dr. Uccellini. Four times a day. We're on a 6-hour cycle--
    --
        Senator Mikulski. Yes, I'm sorry. Got it.
        Dr. Uccellini [continuing]. Four times a day.

                           HURRICANE PREDICTION MODEL

        Senator Mikulski. Okay, now, let's go to this new hurricane
    prediction model. After Katrina, I think we knew you were
    working on a model, and this subcommittee, under Senator
    Shelby's leadership, provided increased funding to accelerate
    the model. Could you tell us where you are in the new hurricane
    model and what will the public get for this new model?
        Dr. Uccellini. Right. We're in the process now of actually
    testing that model on individual cases. And when I say
    ``testing,'' what's new about the model is not just the physics
    that we bring in from an atmospheric point of view, it's the
    coupling with the ocean on a real-time basis that is actually
    being tested. And our plans originally were to implement that
    and replace the existing model in the 2008-2009 timeframe. And
    what our plans call for now is to get that into operations by
    2007. So, we were looking at a 2-year acceleration----
        Senator Mikulski. But what will it do?
        Dr. Uccellini. What it will do is----
        Senator Mikulski. What will it do--what will the new model
    do that is different than the old model?
        Dr. Uccellini. Okay. Well, first of all, we expect more
    accurate forecasts for the track and, more importantly, for the
    intensity of these storms. I think everybody knows we've made
    significant improvements in track forecasts over the past 10
    years, but the intensity forecast has proven to be a
    particularly thorny issue, from a science point of view. And,
    in fact, we've had a working group now, working with the NOAA
    Science Advisory Board, to bring forth recommendations, and
    they're all focusing on increased resolution of the models,
    which this will have. So, we expect that, with the improvements
    we're working on, and working with the larger scientific
    community, that we will be addressing this intensity issue.
    Many of these storms intensify very rapidly over a 12-hour
    period. We saw that with Charley off the coast of Florida, we
    saw that with other storms in the Gulf of Mexico. We saw that
    Wilma went to a category 5 in less than 24 hours. We have
    trouble forecasting those intensity changes. And then, of
    course, the de-intensification as it approaches the coastline
    is also a critical issue. And we expect this new model to give
    us a better handle on the intensity changes.
        Senator Mikulski. I want to come back to intensity and
    surge, but just a question. Won't the new model give you a more
    accurate prediction as to where a hurricane will come down? I
    mean, the private sector tells me that, for every mile of
    evacuation, colleagues, it cost $1 million. So, when you hear,
    ``Oh, they're leaving Key West,'' or, ``They're leaving Ocean
    City,'' every mile of evacuation costs about $1 million, in
    terms of closing businesses, disruption, overtime for State
    troopers, et cetera. So, if we know whether--if it's going to
    hit Savannah or Charleston, you know, Norfolk or Maryland, I
    mean----
        Dr. Uccellini. Yes, we do expect better forecasts for the
    track, as well. We have been making improvements on track, so
    the delta in the track forecasts won't be as large as, we hope,
    for the delta in the intensity forecasts. But, let me add that
    one of the issues with forecasting these storms, as you
    approach landfall from 5 days in advance to 4 days in advance,
    to 3, to 2, to 1, is, you want a consistent forecast. You don't
    want the models to be moving all over the place as a hurricane
    is approaching land. And another issue that we expect to be
    able to address with these high-accuracy models, is that
    they'll give us more consistent forecasts on a run-to-run
    basis.

                                SURGE PREDICTION

        Senator Mikulski. Well, also, will this give us greater
    prediction, in terms of surge? You know, when Isabel hit
    Maryland, I went to bed thinking we had dodged the bullet of
    the hurricane, only to wake up to find out we were kayaking in
    Fells Point, and, you know, I was commuting by Zodiac that day.
    Not literally, but----
        Dr. Uccellini. Well, it was the Isabel storm that brought
    great attention to the storm surge models and the improvements
    that needed to be made there. And we are addressing current
    surge models, and improving those, as well. But, with this new
    modeling system, what we are approaching now is the ability to
    fully couple the atmospheric model with the ocean and coastal
    model.
        Senator Mikulski. Is surge in this new model?
        Dr. Uccellini. It will be in the new model in the extended
    timeframes. We're not confident yet that it will be in the
    model for 2007, but that is an issue that we're addressing. And
    when we feel like we can improve upon the existing surge model,
    then it will go operational.
        Senator Mikulski. My time is running out, so I'm going to
    ask--I understand, from the employees, you need about--you
    know, in Maryland, you can't go to a supermarket without
    talking to five Federal employees, all working on projects,
    writing the regs, and so on. They tell me that, really, the
    weather--to do the new model, you need about another million
    dollars for 2007 to do about six more people to complete the
    job. Is that right?
        Dr. Uccellini. With your support, we're building up the
    modeling group to do the hurricane improvements. And we have
    plans for sustaining that. In 2007, we'll have to look within
    NOAA to do that, but, in 2008, we are, you know, approaching
    that budget cycle and looking to fully support----
        Senator Mikulski. So, what's----
        Dr. Uccellini [continuing]. The model----
        Senator Mikulski [continuing]. The answer to the question,
    though, Doctor? Or are you unable to answer it because of----
        Admiral Lautenbacher. Let me----
        Senator Mikulski [continuing]. OMB rules?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. We're----
        Senator Mikulski. All I need to know is, Do you need
    another million dollars for six people to complete--to really
    work to complete----
        Admiral Lautenbacher. We're going to make sure he has the
    six people to start this when it needs to be started, and we're
    going to ask for the budget resources on the next cycle to
    increase this effort.

                             HURRICANE LIAISON TEAM

        Senator Mikulski. Okay. This is my last question, Mr.
    Chairman.
        I understand that, at National Hurricane Center, there is
    something called a ``hurricane liaison team,'' and that that
    liaison team has appropriate government agencies, particularly
    FEMA. Could you tell us what the hurricane liaison team is at
    the Hurricane Center, or in conjunction with, and was it
    operation during Katrina? And what did it do?
        Dr. Uccellini. Yeah, the----
        Senator Mikulski. And how will it be different next time?
        Dr. Uccellini. Right. The hurricane liaison team was
    actually formed in the 1990s, after Andrew. And part of this
    effort to get one voice out to the emergency management
    community. It was recognized back then that we needed to do
    that with FEMA and with the State and local emergency
    management teams.
        Senator Mikulski. This was out of Andrew. Am I right?
        Dr. Uccellini. It was part of the feedback we got from the
    Andrew storm, that's correct.
        Now, the liaison team contains a FEMA work area at the
    Hurricane Center. So, they have a work area. It's right off of
    the forecast floor. They have all the technical abilities in
    that work area to access the forecasts, even as they're being
    made. The briefings that are done for the larger FEMA
    organization--and they include State and local emergency
    management officials in those briefings--the weather portion of
    those briefings are actually orchestrated, led out of that
    liaison team in Miami. They lead the entire briefing, and they
    include other components of the Weather Service, including the
    Hydromet Prediction Center, at Camp Springs, that talks about
    the rainfall prediction, and the River Forecast Centers which
    predict floods. So, all of that is done. It was working very
    well during the last hurricane season. And I actually attend
    those briefings, although I don't participate. I have two
    Center directors----
        Senator Mikulski. So, during----
        Dr. Uccellini [continuing]. That do.
        Senator Mikulski [continuing]. Katrina, when we all--all of
    America watched Katrina coming. I know I certainly was. I
    happened to be on the Eastern Shore at the time and saw these
    predictions. So, there was a hurricane liaison team. They were
    working right alongside with the predictors, the science----
        Dr. Uccellini. Right.
        Senator Mikulski [continuing]. Community. And then, their
    job was to notify everybody to be ready, to stand sentry. And
    they were getting this most accurate, realtime, uptime
    predictions.
        Dr. Uccellini. That's correct. And at 12 o'clock every day
    and at 5 p.m. there is a briefing that's provided, and the
    whole briefing goes out to all the emergency managers in the
    affected States.
        Senator Mikulski. Well, are we----
        Dr. Uccellini. And that's all----
        Senator Mikulski [continuing]. Saying, then----
        Dr. Uccellini. And that's all coordinated by FEMA through
    that liaison team.
        Senator Mikulski. Are we saying, then, that all of these
    States were appropriately notified at the velocity that was
    coming their way, in addition to watching it on TV?
        Dr. Uccellini. The emergency management teams in each one
    of those States participated in those calls at 12 and 5 p.m.
    every day.
        Senator Mikulski. Well, Mr. Chairman, I think we need to
    talk about it. Something broke down.
        So, in other words, we want this hurricane liaison team.
        Senator Shelby. Absolutely.
        Senator Mikulski. But, if they, then, knew it, then what
    happened? And--do you have any thoughts or----
        Dr. Uccellini. I'll just say that I was part of the Weather
    Service headquarters at the time the hurricane liaison team was
    spun up. We all recognized that this was the way to conduct
    business with one of our primary users of our information. And
    I consider that a very important aspect of the work that we do
    as part of the U.S. Government.
        Senator Mikulski. Oh, it certainly is.
        Well, my time is really up. And we want to thank you,
    again, for the wonderful work that you do, because it's really
    dedication. If you don't have the right people, the right
    technology and models won't work. And, also, we want to thank
    you for the consequence management, about the aerial images
    afterward, this--the consequences on coastal impact, the
    materials--I mean, what happened out in the gulf, with oil----
        Dr. Uccellini. That's right.
        Senator Mikulski [continuing]. And all of that, our impact
    on fisheries, which we haven't even talked--your satellites
    could work with us. So, it's a--it was a great job, and we want
    to thank you for it, and hope for the best for this year. Thank
    you.
        Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        Senator Shelby. Senator Murray.

                              TSUNAMI PREPAREDNESS

        Senator Murray. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And thank you, to
    both of you, for having this really important, informative
    hearing.
        I wanted to just take an opportunity, while you were in
    front of this subcommittee, to ask a question on a related
    issue, on tsunami preparedness. You mentioned a minute ago, my
    coast does worry about that. And after the 2004 Indian Ocean
    tsunami, it really raised a lot of concerns about the
    vulnerability of our detection and warning systems so we would
    not have a similar disaster on any of our coasts. Congress
    responded well. We appropriated $17.24 million in a
    supplemental funding bill for NOAA to expand and improve its
    tsunami detection capabilities and a number of other things.
    And in 2006 we appropriated almost $10 million for tsunami-
    related activities. And this year the President's asked for
    $21.66 million. So, we're responding to that. But I was really
    concerned, because the Government Accountability Office (GAO)
    issued a report on these--U.S. tsunami preparedness just this
    last Monday that raised some concerns about both the
    effectiveness of the existing Federal warning system and the
    progress that's being made to increase preparedness in a lot of
    our high-hazard areas. And, importantly, the report noted that
    NOAA has yet to adopt a comprehensive strategic plan that
    establishes risk-based priorities to guide the expansion of the
    warning program. Without that kind of plan, GAO said that the
    ongoing expansion could result in a diversion of critical funds
    away from locations like the Pacific Coast, where the tsunami
    hazard is well documented, to areas with little or no risk.
        Admiral, if you could just talk for a minute about what
    your response is to the GAO report and recommendations.
        Admiral Lautenbacher. We are reviewing the GAO report. We
    certainly believe in risk-based management. Risk-based
    management is extremely important. One of the elements of the
    program is to provide the kinds of flood information and first
    of all, the coastal bathymetry and topography, so we can tell
    what the dangerous areas are, and to get enough effort going to
    be able to map all of these areas. This is the same issue we
    have with storm surge in the gulf from hurricanes. So, the
    issue is trying to get the mapping, the risk areas, set up and
    done in a reasonable way, because we can't do them all at once.
    And we certainly agree that we need to look at it on a risk-
    based management perspective, because it's not something that
    can be done instantaneously for everyone in all areas.

                           DEEPWATER DETECTION BUOYS

        Senator Murray. Well, what is the timeline for development
    of the--more deepwater detection buoys off the Pacific Coast?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. First of all, the buoys are
    developed, and they're being delivered. We have 10 buoys in the
    Pacific that have been put in, and we have put 5 in the
    Atlantic and Caribbean. This year, we'll reach what we call
    IOC, or initial operating capability, of deepwater buoys for
    both the Pacific and the Atlantic. Next year, we will be able
    to complete the bulk of the 39 that we've committed to put in,
    so the program is running as expected.
        Senator Murray. Have all the existing buoys been functional
    over the last year?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. We have had casualties to a few of
    our buoys, and we've replaced them. We still have one that's
    not functional off the Aleutians, and that will be replaced as
    soon as the weather cooperates. There is a very narrow weather
    margin.
        Senator Murray. Right.
        Admiral Lautenbacher. What we're going to do in the
    Aleutians is put two buoys in each of those stations, to try to
    provide the required reliability, so that there will always be
    one on station. In other places, we can service them at more
    regular intervals than we can in the Aleutian Islands.
        Senator Murray. Okay. Well, I appreciate that. And if you
    could maybe just, in writing, get back to the subcommittee on
    what kind of gaps remain and what we need to do to address
    them, because I was very concerned when I saw that GAO report,
    and the impact it could have on our being prepared for a
    tsunami on any of our coasts, but particularly where I live,
    out in the--out in Washington State. So, if you could----
        Admiral Lautenbacher. I'd be pleased to do that.
        [The information follows:]

             Addressing the Gaps Remaining in Tsunami Preparedness

        In response to the December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the
    Administration has made a commitment to strengthen the Nation's tsunami
    warning program. The fiscal year 2007 budget request continues the
    Administration's commitment to this mandate--with its goal to eliminate
    ``gaps'' in our ability to accurately and effectively detect tsunamis,
    issue timely and effective warnings and mitigate tsunami hazards
    through community-based tsunami preparedness programs. The overarching
    focus of this multi-year effort embraces the three integrated
    components of the National Tsunami Mitigation Program: (1) Improving
    Tsunami Warning Guidance; (2) Improving Tsunami Hazard Assessment; and
    (3) Improving Tsunami Mitigation. Financially, NOAA's initial efforts
    in strengthening the U.S. Tsunami Warning System have been on improving
    tsunami warning guidance. This has included expanding NOAA's Deep-ocean
    Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) network, expanding/
    upgrading NOAA's sea-level reporting network, expanding and upgrading
    NOAA's seismic networks, and upgrading the operations of NOAA's two
    Tsunami Warning Centers to 24/7 operations. Funds provided to the U.S.
    Geological Survey (USGS) have led to improved global earthquake
    detection and faster reporting of earthquake data for tsunami warning.
        NOAA is also expanding and accelerating its tsunami inundation,
    mapping, modeling and forecast efforts. NOAA has embarked upon an
    accelerated and expanded program to collect bathymetric data along
    vulnerable U.S. coastlines and develop detailed community-based tsunami
    inundation maps and tsunami inundation forecast models for the most at-
    risk U.S. coastal communities (74 total models). By the end of fiscal
    year 2006, we are scheduled to complete 8 additional models, for a
    total of 17. With sustained funding, 9 more models will be added in
    fiscal year 2007 and the forecast operating system software will be
    transferred to the tsunami warning centers. We project completion of
    this national effort during fiscal year 2012.
        In response to its mandate to improve tsunami mitigation/
    preparedness NOAA has increased the number of TsunamiReady communities/
    locations to 27, which is an 80 percent increase above the December
    2004 number. NOAA is committed to working with every at-risk community
    to help make them TsunamiReady.
        The GAO Report focuses primarily on tsunami preparedness and hazard
    mitigation and proposes the following recommendations--all of which
    NOAA is adopting:
      --Work with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Director
            and the USGS Director to create standardized tsunami loss
            estimation software to help communities determine the potential
            impact of tsunamis and identify appropriate mitigation actions;
      --Reduce the number of tsunami warning false alarms by (1) completing
            the planned expansion of tsunami detection stations, (2)
            reexamining NWS's rules dictating when a warning will be issued
            and to what areas, (3) establishing a routine process for other
            federal and state experts to formally review and comment on the
            center's use of seismic data, and (4) setting performance goals
            to guide improvements;
      --Work with the states to conduct periodic end-to-end tests of the
            tsunami warning system, including NOAA Weather Radio and the
            Emergency Alert System, to ensure the system will function as
            intended during a tsunami emergency;
      --Evaluate the TsunamiReady program to determine what barriers, if
            any, exist to participation and what modifications are needed
            to encourage more high-risk communities to participate;
      --Evaluate the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to
            determine what has worked well in the past and what high
            priority activities remain to be completed and to help inform
            strategic planning efforts;
      --Develop comprehensive risk-based strategic plans for the Tsunami
            Program and NTHMP that consider input from states and federal
            partners and include metrics for measuring progress toward
            achieving program goals.
        We will forward for the Committee's review a copy of the DOC/NOAA
    response to the GAO Report as soon as it has been cleared. Our response
    to the GAO report will acknowledge that NOAA's focus will remain on the
    high risk locations. As the GAO acknowledges, achieving comprehensive
    community-based tsunami preparedness programs for all at-risk U.S.
    coastal communities will require an integrated effort of multiple
    Federal Agencies (NOAA, USGS, FEMA, and the National Science
    Foundation) and State and local government participation to achieve
    program goals.

                           NOTIFICATION OF GOVERNORS

        Admiral Lautenbacher. And regarding the point about making
    sure that everybody is prepared--I have been asked by the House
    Appropriations Committee to call every Governor to tell them
    the status of the program, which I have done, and I have
    contacted your Governor, as well as those in----
        Senator Murray. Thank you.
        Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. Oregon and California--
    and will continue--I take this very seriously, and we will
    continue to do everything we can to provide the Federal piece
    of the warning system. Thank you for----
        Senator Murray. Thank you----
        Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. Your attention.
        Senator Murray [continuing]. Very much. Appreciate it.

                               WEATHER PREDICTION

        Senator Shelby. I have some more questions, for the record
    here, and I'll try to run through them.
        What are the U.S. strengths and weaknesses in weather
    prediction, Admiral?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. Okay, from my perspective, I think
    that we are very strong in our observing systems. We have good
    satellites. We have good control of the assets that we use. We
    have excellent prediction centers. So, the strengths, in terms
    of the ability to bring science into an operational part of our
    setup, are extremely good. We have good international
    relationships. We take advantage of other----
        Senator Shelby. How do we----
        Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. Information----
        Senator Shelby [continuing]. Compare with Europe as far as
    predictions?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. I think we're on a comparable
    footing. It's not exactly an apples to oranges comparison, but
    we do well. Now, Europe has a different mechanism. They've----
        Senator Shelby. Sure.
        Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. Combined their agencies
    to have a European Center for Medium Weather Forecasting.
        Senator Shelby. They have different risks, too, don't they?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. Sir?
        Senator Shelby. Have different risk.
        Admiral Lautenbacher. How the different----
        Senator Shelby. The risk is different in Europe.
        Admiral Lautenbacher. Certainly, the risk is different----
        Senator Shelby. Yeah.
        Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. In Europe. They have
    different storms and types of weather conditions to worry
    about. But I am always interested in creating bigger and better
    modeling centers, more computing power. So, I think we need to
    work, in the future, on developing our computing power. I've
    brought that recommendation forward within the administration,
    as well as within the scientific community.
        Senator Shelby. How do you intend to integrate new remote
    sensing technology to advance your Nation's storm forecasting?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. Remote sensing capability can be
    difficult, because there's a large amount of information that
    comes in from this technology. So, what we have created is a
    Joint Center for Data Assimilation with NASA and the Department
    of Defense to take this data into a single combined
    organization that allows us to then parse it out and put it in
    models. Dr. Uccellini is a key part of that issue of
    incorporating new data as quickly as possible into our models.
        Senator Shelby. As both of you well know better than I,
    severe weather comes in many forms, not just hurricanes. So far
    this year, 724 tornados have been reported in the United
    States, according to NOAA's Prediction Center. Preliminary
    reports show these events have resulted in at least 52 deaths.
    I understand that you're working to ensure that citizens are
    better informed about dangerous weather, because it saves
    lives, saves property and everything else. What's the most
    effective strategy for decreasing severe-storm-related deaths,
    in your judgment?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. In my judgment, it's preparation,
    it's people understanding what the risks are and being prepared
    to act when they get information. And next, they need the
    information, and I'm always advertising NOAA Weather Radio as a
    way to get the information.

                             STORM SURGE FORECASTS

        Senator Shelby. During Hurricane Katrina, much of the
    damage in my State of Alabama, and a lot more in Mississippi,
    was caused by storm surge. In some communities, the water
    levels were higher than 20 feet. Can you tell us what NOAA is
    doing to improve storm surge forecasts? And how can you
    highlight some efforts to improve forecasts for inland flooding
    caused by heavy rains during hurricanes, you know, as the
    aftermath of this?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. Yes, and as we mentioned, we have a
    model called SLOSH (Sea, Land and Overland Surges from
    Hurricanes), that we use today. It's a rudimentary model, but
    we are trying to make it better.
        Senator Shelby. Is it working?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. It works. Yes, it does work. Does it
    work accurately all the time, in every place? The answer is----
        Senator Mikulski. No.
        Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. No. So, we need to
    improve it. You have given us some funding to help us do that.
        Senator Shelby. You need more funding in that area?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. I think----
        Senator Shelby. Senator Mikulski was asking you a
    specific--I'm going to ask you a specific--do you need more----
        Admiral Lautenbacher. I think we have the money we need to
    improve that model, and I would like to have Dr. Uccellini and
    our folks work on----
        Senator Shelby. Work with the staff.
        Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. The improvements----
        Senator Shelby. The model.
        Admiral Lautenbacher. The model, itself.
        Senator Shelby. Okay.
        Admiral Lautenbacher. Because we have some money to improve
    that model, and we have some money to incorporate better
    models, in the future. So, you have given us help in doing
    that, and we are grateful for it, and we're going to take
    action on it.

                          COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT ACT

        Senator Shelby. The Coastal Zone Management Act requires
    NOAA to assist States in managing coastal development in order
    to minimize the loss of life and property caused by improper
    development in hazardous areas. You know, there's a lot of
    horror stories here. Under the Coastal Zone Management Act,
    each State receives approximately $2 million annually to
    address coastal hazards, in addition to other competitive
    priorities, such as water quality and public access. Is the
    Coastal Zone Management Act funding providing enough to achieve
    the goals of the act, is this just a pittance?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. That's a very broad question. It has
    worked fairly well, because the object of the act was to
    develop consistent plans between the Federal and the State
    governments so that we would have a consistency principle
    around the coast.
        Senator Shelby. Sure.
        Admiral Lautenbacher. Now, if you ask the States, they will
    tell us that they can always use more, certainly, in working in
    these areas. But the object of the act was to try to build a
    consistent plan that allows us to develop properly and with
    some consistency around our Nation, and that seems to be
    working fairly well. The act, itself, is well constructed.
        Senator Shelby. Are States afforded sufficient authority to
    establish priorities for the selection and funding of coastal
    hazards mitigation projects?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. I think the act represents the----
        Senator Shelby. In other words, do they have the power?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. Yes, they do. There is a reasonable
    balance for them to act and provide the money for projects that
    they think are important to them.
        Senator Shelby. NOAA struggled to release funds in the
    previous December 2005 supplemental, but we were assured by the
    Secretary of Commerce that that's been resolved. Does NOAA
    foresee any problems distributing funds from the latest
    supplemental?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. No, sir, we do not. From the most
    recent one that was given to us in December, we have
    distributed all of those funds, and we are preparing so that,
    when the next one is ready, we will spring into action. We have
    set ourselves up to try to do it as quickly as possible.

           NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION PRIORITIES

        Senator Shelby. As both of you know, we're working on the
    2007 appropriations bill--Senator Mikulski and our staff and
    members of the committee. But in supporting your overall
    mission to monitor and to forecast hurricanes, which we believe
    is very important to the American people, what are your top
    priorities, just in a nutshell?
        Admiral Lautenbacher. My priorities, first of all, are to
    take care of the people. We have to recognize that, while we
    have these wonderful technological inventions that we use, it's
    the skill of the forecasters in using that information that's
    critical. I'm delighted that we have a good union that supports
    the work that we do. And to support the people that we have is
    my top issue.
        Beyond that, I would like to make strong representation for
    our satellite programs. Our satellite programs are critical to
    the Nation, and we spend a lot of time working on trying to
    keep them going. So, the increases for the satellite programs
    are very important. And then, the sensors and the modeling
    programs that we have.
        I think those are all critical, and there are increases for
    each of those in our 2007 budget.
        Senator Shelby. Well, during the hurricane season, I think
    you--NOAA stood out as doing great work, wouldn't you think,
    Senator Mikulski? And we want to commend you, again, for that,
    and we want to make sure that you have adequate funding to
    carry your job out.
        We thank you both for your cooperation with the
    subcommittee. We'll continue to work with you.
        We have some Senators that are tied up on the floor that
    have asked to submit questions to you for the record, and we'd
    ask that you respond to them no later than July 22, 2006.

                             CONCLUSION OF HEARING

        And, other than that, this subcommittee will stand in
    recess.
        [Whereupon, at 11:28 a.m., Wednesday, June 7, the hearing
    was concluded, and the subcommittee was recessed, to reconvene
    subject to the call of the Chair.]

                                       -